Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 Third Base Recap! Top Performers & Early 2024 Rankings (11/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 14, 2023

Austin Riley is as consistent as they come (3:51). Was Jose Ramirez a letdown? ... Rafael Devers gets it done year in and year out (10:50). Gunnar Henderson could be even better in 2024. ... Is Alex Bregman undervalued (17:00)? ... Max Muncy provides counting stats but that batting average is a killer (24:07). ... What do we do with Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado (27:08)? ... News (34:40): Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson won the NL and AL Rookie of the Year, respectively. ... Where does Elly De La Cruz rank in the top-10 third base rankings (44:55)? ... Scott has Josh Jung where in his rankings (54:41)?? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. All right, we had fun out in Arizona, but it's time to get back into our position recaps.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. On Tuesday, November 14th, I am Frank Sample. joined by Scott White. And today on the show, we are recapping the third base position. We'll take a look back at the top 10 or so from this past season and take an early look at Scott's

way too early rankings for 2024. And I know you remember very vividly, but let's remind everyone else. We were pretty worried about third base entering this past season, the scarcity, but this position has evolved, Scott. We have

mostly reliable veterans up top and a bunch of young exciting players. L.A. Delae Cruz, Royce Lewis, Josh Young, to name a few. But there's even more than that. So I actually feel really good about third base right now. It's the deepest position. It's the deepest position. Now, it's close.

It's close, I think, between first base, third base, second base. You could still argue shortstop is deep, but I think it's becoming less deep. third base I mean in a 12 team league with no corner infield spot there are way too many options to go around and that's crazy like what a difference a year makes

because it had been a long time since I had seen a position as shallow as third base heading into 2023 I kind of based my whole draft strategy around it and turned out to be not such a big deal position scarcity is a myth Frank and third base in 2023 is evidence supporting the case.

I think the point here is that every position seems to be pretty good outside of outfield so far, but that again, position scarcity doesn't really matter. So who cares about that stuff? Let's recap the third base position. The top four third baseman this past season, we're all drafted top five in preseason ADP. So it's nice to see the players drafted early on. They mostly paid off their value.

And the number one third baseman was actually Bobby Witt, but he won't have third base eligibility in 2024. So we will save him for the shortstop recap. We're losing the best one. And it's still the deepest position in fantasy. Crazy stuff. The number two third baseman is Austin Riley. He finished 15th overall in Roto.

He was the fourth best third baseman in head to head points leagues. Prime of his career, he turns 27 years old in April. he hit 281 with 37 homers, 117 runs scored, 97 RBI, three straight seasons with 33 plus homers, 90 plus runs,

93 plus RBI, between a 273 and a 303 batting average. The plate discipline and the batted ball data is also eerily similar, Scott, just year after year. If you are somebody

who values just high floor, you know what you're going to get, you're not going to get any speed. I think Austin Riley makes for like the perfect second or I don't know, maybe third round pick wherever he winds up. Yeah, I remember some skepticism after that breakout season in 2021.

I didn't necessarily share in that skepticism, but there was plenty of skepticism. Now that we've got basically three years, three straight years of identical production from Austin Riley. So he seems about as safe as they come. Of course, he's in the best lineup at baseball. So that only helps his case.

you know, the run and RBI totals are going to be high on top of everything else. If there's anything negative to say about Austin Riley, it's that the plate discipline not so great. So I think there is a possibility you could overvalue him in points leagues. But I was just putting together my mixed point, my points league rankings, combined rankings, you know, like a top 300 overall for points leagues prior to this podcast. And I still have Austin Riley 25th over there.

So just outside round two. He's a stud regardless of what format you're talking about. All right. The number three third baseman was. And I should, well, I don't know that he's that much higher in Roto leagues. He's still like a late second rounder. I was going to say there's a big difference between his points in Roto value, but I don't know, based on my own rankings, it's not that different.

Yeah, so he finished 15th overall in Roto this past season, Austin Riley. and through 24 NFBC drafts, his ADP is 22.6. So that sounds about right for Austin Riley. Jose Ramirez was the number 3rd baseman. He finished 23rd overall in Roto. He was the number 2 third baseman in head-to-head points leagues. He's entering his age 31 season. If you remember last year, he was a consensus top five pick.

Didn't necessarily live up to the value. But I think most of that, Scott, really just came down to a lot. lack of counting stats, which, you know, at times isn't really the player's fault, right? So Jose Ramirez hit 282, he had 24 homers, he had 28 steals, 87 runs, 80 RBI, but if you look at his expected numbers, he were still very good. The plate discipline, amazing. He actually had the same amount of walks as he did strikeouts. The one thing that stood out, his fly ball rate did take a little bit of a step back last year.

He hit more line drives than Jose Ramirez normally does. But I would bet on the counting stats bouncing back. I know he's getting a little bit older. I think he's a pretty safe bet for like a near 25, 25, and with a good betting average, too. Yeah, I don't think evaluating, I don't think my evaluation for the player changes, even though Jose Ramirez was a little disappointing this past year.

Obviously, didn't live up to a top five or even first round price tag. You mentioned the combined run and RBI totals were down, and that's true. I don't know how much we can predict that. I mean, in 2022, Guardians lineup still wasn't so great. Jose Ramirez had 126 RBI. So I don't know if that's, I don't know if that's the new normal for him now having a combined,

what was it, 80 RBI, 87 runs, 167 combined runs in RBI this past year. What stood out to me more for Jose Ramirez and why I don't necessarily see him bouncing back to, top five production is that so many more players are capable of stealing so many more bases than him. Like, well, while we saw Ronald de Kuni exceed 70 stolen bases, Bobby Witt get to 50, right? And Corbyn, Carol, Julio Rodriguez, they had a ton of steals too. We saw us, like, it wasn't so long ago for most of Jose Ramirez is, career, in fact, where his 25 or so stolen bases was a really big freaking deal. And I don't think

it is as much anymore. And yet he didn't start running more last year. He still ended up with 28 steals, which is pretty much in the normal range for him. So I think he's just not as special as he used to be, both because there are more prolific base dealers among the early rounders, and because third base isn't as shallow as it was certainly not last year, but this is the deepest third base has been in several years. So the position scarcity element isn't even going in Jose Ramirez's favor either. Is he still a first rounder for you in both formats? He's in the discussion.

I think I have him 13th in both formats, 13th or 14th, so just outside of the first round in a standard 12-team league. But, you know, I don't think, I don't think anybody's head's going to spin if you took them 11th or 12th instead. It's within a range of players where you could go a few different ways. Do you have Kyle Tucker ahead of him? Oh, yeah. Because it seems like just from, you know, power and speed perspective and batting average, they're probably going to be pretty similar.

The only difference is that, you know, outfield is a little bit more shallow, but again, I don't think we want to play the position scarcity game. outfield's weaker than third base, yes. I mean, if there is a position you're going to prioritize because it's scarce, it's outfield. So outfield's weaker, Astros lineup is better. Sure, no doubt. Kyle Tucker, I see,

I think of Kyle Tucker more as a 30, 30, potential 30-30 guy, and Jose Ramirez more as a potential 25-25 guy. So I do think just in, which isn't to say, you know, Jose Ramirez couldn't have a 30-30-30, season. He's done it before. But if I'm just, if I'm, if I'm, if I'm assessing the most likely scenario for both Kyle Tucker and Jose Ramirez, I think the combined home running and stolen base

total, not to mention the combined RBI and run total, works in Kyle Tucker's favor. And Kyle Tucker is five years younger. So I think obviously that favors him as well. The number four third baseman was Raphael Devers. He finished 31st overall in Roto. He was the fifth best third baseman in head-to-head points leagues. Just turned 27 in October. Obviously, in the prime of his career, hit 271 with 33 homers, 90 runs scored, 100 RBI. Much like Austin Riley, I mean, pretty consistent. His 150 game pace over the past three seasons, 32 homers, 91 runs, 100 RBI.

So that's pretty much what you're going to get from Raphael Devers, probably hitting anywhere from like 270 to 300 if, you know, he has a, a higher bat-up season, still hits the ball incredibly hard. There are some underlying plate discipline things that have always been there, Scott. So maybe those start to kind of rear their head in the next couple of years, but they've always been that way. And so I don't really have any concerns with Raphaide. What are you referring to specifically?

He chases a lot. His own contact is not as good as like other elite hitters, I guess you could say. Okay. Yeah, I have to admit, I hadn't looked at that for Raphael Devers. I know he strikes a lot. It's always been that way. he's always really good. Yeah, I know I've,

I know he strikes out a lot less than Austin Riley. So I have this debate every year between Raphael Devers and Austin Riley. This year I'm going Austin Riley over Devers. Me too. I think the past couple years I went Devers over Riley, but they're usually like back to back in my overall rankings. And it's mostly the Braves lineup that's, that has me ranking Riley ahead of Devers this year.

I will say that between the two, if somebody's going to go compete for a batting title, it's more likely to be Devers. It's been a couple years since he hit 300, which it has for Riley too. Riley had that breakout year where he hit 303. But I do think that's more within the realistic range of outcomes for Devers than it is for Riley.

So that would be the case for taking Devers over Riley if you wanted to make it. The number five third baseman was Yendi Diaz. We spoke about him on the first base. podcast and he won't have third base eligibility in 2024 either. So we'll move on from him. Number six was Hassan Kim. Similarly, we spoke about him on the second base podcast. He does have third base eligibility.

But again, if you want to hear more. Yes, definitely helpful. Second third and shortstop for Hassan Kim. And you can hear about him on the second base podcast we did. Next up, the number seven third baseman was Gunner Henderson, who just won the AL rookie of the year unanimously. Lee, I might add. Finished 39th overall in Roto.

He was the eighth best third baseman in Head to Head Points Leagues, turns 23 years old next June, and obviously paid off quite a bit. His preseason 80P was 86.2, wound up with 28 home runs, 100 run scored, 10 stolen bases. I think there's a chance he can run even more. The sprint speed is 85th percentile, and he ran more in the minors a little bit. Got off to that slow start. We know he finished the final. four months, we're much, much better, Scott.

Now, the last part is consistency. Let's see him do it over a full season. And can he improve against lefties? It's one thing I don't love about Gunner Henderson, Scott. So far over his career, even, you know, the short sample last year and so far this year, he's been bad. 199 batting average, 595 OPS against left-handed pitching. Yeah, those are improvements he'll have to make.

Well, I mean, I guess he doesn't have to make them. He's already pretty great without those, you know, with the struggles against left-handers, is Gunner Henderson. But that just goes to show you that there is still untapped upside here. And if you just look at his numbers from the last four months, I'm not sure if you read them off. 276 batting average 23 homers, eight steals, 8-56 OPS, he struck out 23% of the time versus 31% the first two months. So big improvement there for Gunner Henderson. And I think the arrow's going to continue trending up. He is also, isn't he also shortstop eligible?

I'm thinking of somebody else. I think he is. I think so. Yeah. So that adds to the appeal too. Shortstop is a scarcer position than the third base, particularly if you're talking about deeper leagues, like a 15-teamer. So you're probably, it's more likely you're going to draft Henderson to play shortstop actually than third base.

But he's another great option here. And I think there's, I think there's room for debate where exactly to take him. I don't think he quite breaks into the Austin Riley Raphael Devers category yet for me. but he has that kind of upside, and he's probably not going to go that far behind them. Yeah, the early ADP, again, there have been 24 drafts so far. Austin Riley's ADP is 22.6. Devers is at 27, and Gunner Henderson is at 29.5.

So just behind that group, yep. Yeah. I want to see where I have them ranked in Roto. I have my points rankings pulled up since that's what I was working on most recently. but in Roto, I have Gunner Henderson 28th, which is exactly where he said he was going, right?

29th. Yep. Yep. So there you go. Pretty much spot on. Again, yeah, I think there could be improvements here. If he does get better against lefties, I think that's how we could see his ultimate ceiling, right? Like the batting average will continue to improve. Maybe he can hit like 275, 280 plus, and power and speed, counting stats in that lineup. There's a lot of like.

And if he runs more, which he runs more, which you pointed out is the reason to believe he could. Yeah. Yeah. I really do think Gunner Henderson could do that here in 2024. The number eight third baseman was Alex Bregman. He finished 40th overall in Rotto, the third best third baseman in Head Ted Points Leagues. He will turn 30 in March, but still pretty consistent. Hit 262, 25 homers, 103 runs, 98 RBI.

The past two seasons. right between 23 and 25 homers, 93 plus runs, 93 plus RBI, more walks and strikeouts in each of the past two seasons, which obviously really helps him in head-to-head points leagues. We know he doesn't really hit the ball all that hard. It's got, you know, again, better points league player. But I think maybe people might sleep on him a little bit in Roto because he does give you a lot of those counting stats

that, you know, maybe kind of get slept on in the middle rounds. Yeah, that could have. happen. I mean, he doesn't hit the ball very hard, Bregman, but a stadium that's well suited for his swing with that short porch in left field. And so that helps his power production play up in a lineup that's deep. He bats high in that lineup. So great combined run-in-R-BI totals for Alex Bregman. The batting average is less than you expect it to be because he is elevating so much for not hitting the ball particularly hard. So even though he doesn't strike out a lot, the batting average, I think we're seeing it settle in the 260 range, basically.

So I wish that wasn't the case. If you could count on Alex Bregman to be a real benefit in batting average, then that would help make up for his 25 homerish power, which among early rounders isn't especially impressive. So I think there is a chance you could undervalue him in Roto leagues, but there's also a chance you could undervalue him in points least because his value is so much greater. Like, if your perception of Alex Breggman's fantasy value is built around his roto value,

which is the format people talk about most, then you could miss out on just how big of a stud he is in the points format and to put actual numbers on it, Alex Breggman this past year averaged 3.33 head-to-head points per game. that's exactly the same as Austin Riley 3.33. Raphael Devers was 3.26, so he was lower. Gunner Henderson was 3.02. So, I mean, there's a case to be made

that Bregman could be drafted as early as round two in a points league. I have him 33rd overall, so more like a late third rounder, but he's in the discussion. I think especially since he just played 161 games this year, He played 155 last year. Remember, there was a, it was both 2020 and 2021.

He missed significant time with injury. And we thought maybe Alex Bregman was going down this injury prone path. But he's turned that around the last two years and that's no longer, I think, part of the profile. And no longer something you really have to weigh into his fantasy value. So Bregman, kind of an unusual player, but plenty valuable, especially in points leeks. He kind of feels like a volume play at this point, like an accumulator. Those are not players that I typically like to target. But again, I think if he slips a little bit in a categories league,

in a points league, you're absolutely right. Like third round, I think, you know, it's probably fair to take an Alex Bregman. A few things I did want to point out that were just weird on the splits with Bregman this past season. Against lefties, he hit 2.15 with a 696 OPS. That has not been. been the case in his career. And at home, where he typically crushes and they have the Crawford

box, he pulls a bunch of fly balls to left field, he hit 250 with a 764 OPS, was actually much better on the road. So I don't really know what to do with those splits, Scott. I guess there's a chance that like, if those kind of regress and he's, you know, just better at home and against lefties in 2024, like maybe he gets better, but we have this sample over the past two years where we kind of know who he is, right? Like, two 60, 25 home runs. That's probably just a fair projection. Well, because there was, it wasn't so long ago he was MVP candidate, Alex Breggman, you know, had the 41 homer 2019, the 31 homer 2018, but he was exactly the sort of player who benefited from the juice ball era. And we've seen, we've seen what he's,

normalized into since then. And what Alex Bregman is now basically is Marcus Simeon without the stolen bases, I think would be the most efficient way to sum it up. Yeah, I think he's entering a contract year,

if I have this correct. Yeah, 2024, final year of his five-year extension will be an unrestricted free agent in 2025. So for anyone who subscribes to the contract year theory, if you're into that, maybe we see a little bit of a better season here from Alex Breggman in

2024. Let's take our first break. When we return, we'll get into the rest of the top 10 or so from this past season. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's continue recapping third base from this past season. The number 9 third baseman was Max Muncie

who finished 46th overall in Roto, 3.3 fantasy points per game that was tied for eighth at the position. I think some names are going to kind of get crossed off the the points league rankings as of now because they won't have eligibility.

So I think he actually will rank higher than 8th, but 3.3 fantasy points per game. We just spoke about Alex Bregman. That's a really, really good mark for Max Muncie. Doesn't turn 34 until next August. Kind of getting up there in age. Batting average continues to be a problem.

He hit 212, 36 homers, 95 runs, 105 RBI, and 135 games this past season. But mentioned the batting average. Max Muncie is hitting 216 since the start of 2020. That is the 10th lowest among 253 qualified hitters. What he does, home runs, runs RBI, and obviously still great plate discipline.

He walks, he gets on base. So those things will help him in a points league, Scott. The problem is in your traditional 5x5 roto or a Categories league where you count batting average, that thing is just going to continue to sink you. Yeah. Muncie's become more and more a player of extremes

and that makes them really hard to rank in roto less on points leagues I mean points leagues you know all the walks make up for the lack of hits and the batting average is meaningless

in traditional points leagues it's just you get points for and different amounts of points for all the different ways the hitter can get on base which Max Muncie does plenty his real life value seems

still worth while The Dodgers just signed him to a two-year deal, so clearly they want to keep him around, even if it means blocking players like Michael Bush and Miguel Vargas who are coming up. So Dodgers still have a lot of confidence in him. Are you saying here, so you said Max Muncie was the ninth third baseman in 20203.

Was that in Roto leagues? Yeah. So even with the low batting average. Yeah, it's just those counting stats, right? On a per game basis, he's still, what, 95 runs? What I say? finished to head of Mani Machado. Yeah.

We haven't gotten to Mani Machado yet. No, we have not. That's interesting. And there are several third basemen, who I'm sure we'll talk about later in the podcast, who just didn't get enough at bats to overtake Max Muncie. But they probably would have if they did. But that's interesting that he was able to finish as high as ninth, even with that low batting average. It goes to show you that in the right build, Max Muncie could be a very valuable.

Roto players still. The number 10 third baseman was Spencer Stier, who we spoke about on the first base podcast. The number 11 third baseman was Justin Turner. Also spoke about on the first base podcast does not have third base eligibility anymore entering 2024, but maybe he'll pick it up depending on where he signs. The number 12 third baseman is Manny Machado. He finished 65th overall in Roto. He averaged 3.0 fantasy points per game.

and he hit 258 with 30 homers, 91 RBI, just three stolen bases. He missed some time this past season with a fractured left hand. But the big story is this elbow injury, Scott. Machado apparently has had lingering since May of 2022. He's been kind of just playing through it for some time. He had surgery a little over a month ago

when we're recording this. So on October 3rd, to repair the extensor tendon in his elbow, recovery is 4 to 6.6. months, which on the longer side, that takes us right up to opening day. If everything works out, he could be back and ready to go as soon as February, you know, when spring training starts. So there's a lot up in the air right here. Still a great lineup. Presumably, we'll see what happens with Juan Soto and the Padres. But yeah, I think Manny Machado could turn out to be kind of a tough player to rank this offseason. I think I'm going to have them higher than most people,

because I don't see a lot to be concerned about here. I mean, give them, credit for having 30 homers and 91 RBI while playing through that tennis elbow that was clearly bothering him quite a bit. And even if you look beyond the surface numbers with Manny Machado, statcast page looks very typical. The exit velocity readings, the plate discipline readings, there aren't any indications there that Manny Machado is in decline.

He's still 31. So getting older. but he's not old yet. And I think he's going to be fine. I think even for having a down year, Manny Machado in terms of head-to-head points per game was ahead of Gunner Henderson by a hundredth of a point, very close between the two of them.

He was well ahead of Nolan Aeronado, who also kind of had a down year. But he was plenty productive. He was plenty productive. and I think that's kind of the downside. What we saw for Machado was like the downside, and he was still very good. So I have him, let's see, who were we talking about before?

Gunner Henderson. To me, it should be a close call between Gunner Henderson and Mani Machado, who goes first. I know early ADP has Henderson well ahead of Machado, and I have Henderson ahead of Machado too, but to me it should be pretty close, like within five picks of each other. And so far, Machado is doubling Gunner Henderson and ADP Gunner at 29.5,

Mani Machado at 67.5. So I think, again, most people should not be drafting this early, but I think for the people who are drafting early, they're worried about the elbow. I think they kind of want to see, at least this is my take on it. They want to see Machado in spring training, make sure he's healthy. And then if that's the case, I have a feeling he's going to, move up draft boards quite a bit.

But I kind of want to take that approach too. I want to, before I, you know, rank him that high, I want to see him in spring training and make sure he's good to go. But maybe at that point, I'll miss out on all the values, Scott, who knows? The number 13 third baseman was Esauk Paredes. We spoke about him again on the first base podcast. You can go back and listen to that. Number 14 is someone else I wanted to highlight early on, Nolan Aronado.

He finished 76th overall in Roto, average 2.9 fans. fantasy points per game. Getting up there a little bit, he turns 33 years old in April, still hit 266 with 26 home runs, 93 RBI. The strikeout rate still very manageable. Actually, still very good. It's just higher for Aeronado, 16 and a half percent, but it's still very good compared to like the rest of Major League Baseball.

His batted ball data drastically changed, Scott. The fly ball rate came way down. The ground ball rate was way up for Aeronado. we know he's someone that has to put it in the air, has to pull it to really take advantage of his power at this point in his career. So I kind of feel like he was just playing through stuff all of last season.

If his bat-a-ball data was that different compared to like his first two years in St. Louis, I think there's a pretty good chance that he bounces back, but he also is getting up there in age. What are your thoughts on Aronado? Well, let's see. I'm looking at the fly ball, ground ball data, because that didn't stand out to me quite as much

as it did to you. I know the launch angle, the launch angle was still pretty high and very similar to a lot of his rocky seasons. But yeah, it was down from his first two years in St. Louis. I think Nolan Aeronado has become

kind of a divisive player since the end of the juice ball year because he kind of has the Alex Bregman thing going on where, okay, he has this superstar track record. But the quality of contact isn't and actually never has been that impressive for Nolan Aeronado. And he's made up for it because he does a good job of pulling the ball in the air. And as long as he continues to do that, he should be fine. But fine, maybe all he is.

And that's certainly what we saw this past year. In 2022, he was more than fine. you're 2.93 with 30 homers, but then you go back to 2021, 255 with 34. I mean, 34 homers are obviously a lot better than the 26 he just hit. But I'm focusing here on the batting average. Three years in St. Louis, it's gone from 255, 293, 266. I think because he has the flyball heavy profile and the pole heavy profile, more likely than not he's going to deliver a batting average in the 260 range.

if he exceeds 30 homers, that's probably no big deal. If he falls a little short like you did this year, you feel it more. So I think Aeronado is going to be a difficult player for people to rank. He already has been. I think the tendency is going to be to go a little low with him.

And so my early impression is I'm going to be higher on Aeronado than most people, just like I was saying with Manny Machado. For instance, in Roto Leagues, not in points, but in Roto Leagues, I have Aeronado ahead of Alex Bregman. They put up in terms of batting average and home runs, they profile similarly.

They put up similar batting averages and home runs this past year. Bregman had Aeronado beat in terms of runs in RBI. The reason I rank Aeronado ahead is because, I think he's, as we just saw in 2022, If somebody's going to hit better than 260, more like 290, it's going to be Aeronado. If somebody's going to hit more than 25 homers, more like 30 or more, it's going to be Aeronado. So I just think there's a higher ceiling here with Aeronado, while the floors for both him and Bregman are pretty similar, at least in the rotissory scoring format.

All right, let's move away from third base for a little bit. Get into the latest news and notes, and then we'll wrap up a little bit later on with Scott's 2024 rankings. but the latest, I mentioned earlier, Gunner Henderson, won the AL Rookie of the Year unanimously. Corbyn Carroll did the same thing in the National League. Obviously, no surprise. Congratulations to him. First rookie ever to hit 25 home runs with 50 plus steals. Just an amazing season for Corbyn Carroll,

projected to be a top five-ish pick heading into next year. We got a bunch of Pirates news. I don't think much that actually changes our perception, but GM Ben Sherrington said that he expects O'Neill Cruz to be fully healthy by the start of spring training. Cruz was limited to just nine games last season due to a fractured left ankle. Henry Davis will enter spring training as a catcher. Davis played just two innings at catcher in the majors this year. Not sure what that means exactly for Andy Rodriguez, but both guys are pretty versatile.

Henry Davis could play some first base, outfield rather, some DH. I know that Andy Rodriguez has played some first, some second, some outfield in the minor, so they can move those guys around. I think I read that the plan is still for Indy Rodriguez to be the primary catcher, and it would be more like Henry Davis could be the backup while also starting in the outfield. Kind of like that role Dalton Varsho had when he was still with the Diamondbacks. And that would be the best case scenario for Henry Davis's fantasy value, if he picks up the catcher eligibility without having all the downsides of actually playing,

and catcher. And his fantasy value kind of depends on it right now because he did not show much at the plate as a rookie. Doesn't mean all hope is lost that he could be an impactful hitter.

But it's hard to get excited about drafting him if he's only going to be an outfielder. And let's just say he plays I don't know, one to two times per week. Henry Davis we're talking about one to two times behind the plate. He should theoretically gain catch eligibility before the end of April.

I mean, if not, like, May at the latest. So in a two-catcher league, that's definitely going to play, something to keep in mind with Henry Davis. Starting pitcher, Johann Oviedo is dealing with a right elbow injury, which could potentially require Tommy John surgery. Like we suspected last week, we'll move away from the Pirates News, but Braves GM, Alexanthopoulos said the team is considering moving Von Grissom to left field. Remember, they declined the option on Eddie Rosario.

So it sounds like that very well could happen. There's a lot of rumors with the Braves right now, Frank. I don't know if you've been hearing. Oh, I have. They're connected to like every free agent from Shoah Otani to Aeronola. Yeah, yeah, I've got that Aeronola note coming up in a little bit, but sounds like the Braves could be in on some starting pitching. You know, Aranola, a few other names out there.

We'll see where they go. The Mets prospect, Ronnie Maricio, will play some third base. based in the Dominican Winter League. It sounds like it's mostly for versatility purposes. But perhaps the Mets aren't sold on Brett Bady at third base defensively. Scott, I know, I mean, from what I saw, I haven't looked into the metrics.

I don't think Brett Bady has been great defensively. So maybe like long term, he's an outfielder or whatever it might be. But I thought it was something of note. Yeah. I mean, I do think the plan going into next year is Bady at third Maricio second, but contingencies should be worked in.

Maybe it's because Beatty doesn't feel well. Maybe it's because he doesn't hit well. He hasn't so far. True. For what it's worth, Brett Beatty's Stackcast page, out above average. He was in the 15th percentile last season.

So not great. Following up on the Dodgers news from last week, Dodgers GM Brandon Goams confirmed that Miguel Vargas could see more playing time in the outfield moving forward. forward. Shota Imanaga. He is a left-handed pitcher with Japan's Yokohoma Bay Stars. He was posted on Monday. Again, we're recording this for a Tuesday release for MLB consideration. So this, he is not the prospect that Yamamoto is. I mean, Yamamoto is probably going to be drafted as like a top 20, top 25 starting pitcher for fantasy. But I think this is a name that we're going to need to know.

If he does sign in the majors, he's probably like a, you know, third, fourth, fifth starter. You know, maybe on the high end, he's like a mid-rotation starter back. You know, if it doesn't work out, he's like a back-in starter, whatever it might be. But the numbers are very good in Japan, 30 years old. And I think he's a name that we're going to need to know, Scottie. Strike out to walk ratio for Shodah Imanaga. Did I say that right? We'll have to learn to say it better.

Shoda imanaga. Yeah. The strikeout to walk ratios are incredible. And so he had 10.6K per 9, 1.4 walks per 9 this past year. And 10.6K per 9 in Japan means a lot more than it does. I mean, it's a great strikeout rate in MLB too. But strikeout rates tend to be lower in Japan. So that counts for even more, I would say.

The fact that he's 30 and is only now making this move, you know, I think that says something in and of itself, which isn't to say we haven't seen pitchers in their 30s come over and be really effective in fantasy. But Imanaga will be drafted and ranked much lower than Yamamoto will. Yes, and rightfully so. I was reading a bit of a scouting report. Actually on the CBS, you know, baseball website. If you go to like the MLB tab on CBSports.com, there's actually some pretty cool articles there. I highly recommend checking it out.

Imanaga relies heavily on a low 90s fastball from the left hand side. So maybe it's like more deception than anything. And the only other pitch that he had a usage above 15% was his slider, which did have a 50% width rate in Japan. But it sounds like he relies on that fastball quite a bit, over 60% of the time. So we'll see where Imanaga lands this off-season. season. We have two more managers. The Astros hired their bench coach Joe Espada to take over as the

manager. He's interviewed for other managerial gigs in recent years. Finally gets the opportunity in Houston and he's been in the organization since 2018. And the Brewers are expected to name Pat Murphy as their new manager. He was the bench coach during Craig Counsel's entire tenure as Brewer's manager. So from 2015 through 2023. So there is a level of of familiarity there with Pat Murphy. So I don't know if it'll be exactly the same, but I think I would expect a lot of the same tendencies from Pat Murphy.

Any takes there, Scott, on Astros, Brewers, managers? I mean, it's clear both of these organizations valued continuity, which makes sense, given the success they've had, especially the Astros. And it's hard to, it's hard to say what's going to change with those promotions. but it is notable that they both decided to stay in-house.

What's the latest with the hot stove? According to MLB.com, Shohay Otani's biggest priority is joining a competitor, not geography. So everyone's just assuming it's going to be a West Coast team. I still think he prefers a West Coast team, but guess what? He can find competitors on the West Coast like the Dodgers.

So I think that would work out quite fine. Ken Rosenthal wrote on The Athletic that the Rays are willing to listen. to trade offers for Tyler Glassdowne as he enters the final year of, I think it's arbitration or team control, whatever it might be. So that could be a big move

this offseason Tyler Glassdown. Ken Rosenthal also mentioned the Braves and Cardinals as two teams who will be in on Aranola. You mentioned that earlier with your Braves. The D-Backs have expressed interest in Justin Turner. The Angels have expressed strong interest

in Tim Anderson. The Cubs are reportedly interested in Reese Hoskins. another sign that they are not committed to Matt Mervis, unfortunately. And Buster only said there is a 100% chance Juan Soto will be traded this offseason. Hmm. Hmm.

Hmm. Hmm. Better be right. You throw out 100% like that. We shall see. No, he'll leave himself any wiggle room at all. Nope. None there.

Let's take our final break. When we return, the top 20 third baseman entering 2024. We'll talk about it right after this. Welcome back in way to early 2024 third base rankings from Scotty Dubs. The top five includes Jose Ramirez, followed by Austin Riley,

Raphael Devers, Gunner Henderson, and Mani Machado. No surprises there, right, Scott? Pretty straightforward. I don't know. You tell me. Anything surprise you there? Machado, 5th. That might be a little spicy. Yeah.

I warned you. I warned you that was coming. I think the Machado one. Some people might disagree with, maybe. Some might not. Who would you want there? I guess some of the next few players we're going to talk about. Yeah, I think it might be one of those.

Let's find out. Six through 10 in the third base rankings, Ellie De La Cruz, followed by Nolan Aeronado, Royce Lewis, Hassan Kim, and Alex Bregman. Ellie De La Cruz, a player,

we have talked about a little bit so far this offseason, obviously talked about a lot in the second half of the year. He hit 235 with 13 homers, 35 steals. He is a freak athlete, 100th percentile in both max exit velocity and sprint speed. He's obviously so, so fun to watch. But, you know, we got to keep it 100, as the kids would say, Scotty. And there are some negatives, 34% strikeout rate, a 54% ground ball rate. He was terrible against lefties.

He was terrible in the second half. he struggled against non-fastball. So there are concerns here. The early ADP, 22.2. It's a little high. It's a little high. Yeah, I get it. I mean, he was such a prolific base dealer

that it kind of made up for his problems at the plate. Even in points leagues where you'd expect L.A. Cruz's strikeout rate to just kill him. It didn't happen. He averaged 3.03. points per game, same as Machado. A little bit more than Gunner Henderson, actually. On a per game basis in points league,

for their numbers for the entire season, Ellie De La Cruz was better than Gunner Henderson. Now, Henderson finished strong. Well, Ellie De La Cruz started strong. You mentioned Ellie De LaCruz's second half wasn't good. 191 was the batting average. 627 was the OPS. Stole 19 bases.

As long as he continues to run like that, then I don't think you should be so stressed about taking him and there's no reason to think he's going to start running less and obviously there's a chance he greatly improves in year two as a hitter cuts down on the strikeouts, elevates the ball better, taps into those natural tools that he has and I mean it's possible he puts out up first round numbers even does Ellie De La Cruz.

So it's a similar conversation to what we were having the conversation we were having for O'Neill Cruz at this time last year. Sounds like I'm saying the same name. O'Neill Cruz versus Ellie Dela Cruz, similar names. But it's the same sort of conversation. And so you're going to find

the same arguments made on both sides where some people are just too scared of the downside and some people are enamored by the upside. I will say, compared to O'Neill Cruz last year, Ellie De La Cruz is going two, three rounds earlier. So maybe the risks are a little more pronounced. But he was, again, he was such a prolific base dealer. Then in a way, I think the risks aren't as severe either because you know he's going to give you 40 plus steals.

Or as long as he doesn't hit so poorly that he loses his job, he'll give you 40 plus steals, which we weren't as confident in for O'Neill Cruz. So that's where we are with Ellie de la Cruz. I think I'm on the more optimistic side just from a pure evaluation standpoint, and yet I rank Manny Machado ahead of him. So I'll be in the minority as far as that goes, which, you know, if I follow my own rankings,

that means I'll never draft L.E. De La Cruz because Mucato will always be there for me to draft instead. But kind of my rationale for that is, like, if I look at Manny Machado's stack has page, and it looks exactly the same as it always has. And this is a guy we were drafting in round one heading into 2023. Like, it's already such a discount for a guy we considered a first rounder

just a year to go and have considered a first or second rounder for, you know, the better part of a decade. I just feel like he's getting penalized too much for what was only kind of an overwhelming season. It wasn't like a disaster. It's kind of an overwhelming season for Manny Machado in a year where he was battling injury.

Maybe you're right and he's being discounted because of concerns over the recovery from surgery. But my understanding is this surgery is not it's not like a shoulder surgery. It shouldn't be, it shouldn't cause as much hand-wringing as maybe it is.

Do you know any players who have had this surgery because I was trying to find anybody, just an example for a timeline, right? And I couldn't find anything. I don't. I'll have to look into that more. Yeah. Again, if Machado's back by February or March or, you know, they report and everything

is good to go and he's out there playing, like, are you going to take him ahead of L.A. de la Cruz if that happens? I don't think so. But I also don't think that I'm going to take L.A. de la Cruz in the top 30 or so. So that means I probably won't have a lot of L.A. Taylor Cruz either. But yeah, I think it just comes down to roster building, right? Like, there's different way.

Like, they provide two different skill sets. If you want a potential 40 plus steals, you know, you can't just find that anywhere. Like, L.E. Dela Cruz, like you said, if he's healthy, I think he's going to provide that. Manny Machado is a very different skill set. You know, it's 275, 30 homers, good county stats. So there's different ways to win in fantasy. I think it just comes down to how you want to construct your roster. Again, that'll look very different depending on whether you take Manny Machado or Elie De LaCruz.

So I have Machado 33rd and Ellie de la Cruz 35th in Roto, myself. That sounds about right for Ellie, but I think maybe I'll just have Machado a little bit lower until we know that he's healthy. But again, it's whatever. It's mid-November, so we have plenty of time to figure that out. The number 8th 3rd Baseman who I mentioned here, we have not talked about yet. Royce Lewis. He averaged 3.7 fantasy points per game. which led all third basement. There's no doubt that when he plays, Royce Lewis is really good.

He turns 25 next June. He's obviously young. Lots of excitement. He had 309, 15 home runs, six steals. He has played 70 career games. During that time, he's hit 307. 17 home runs, six steals.

The lazy analysis, nobody should do this. But I'm going to do it anyway. You double that. He's got 34 homers, 12 steals over 140 games. it's just can he stay on the field. It's instructive. It's instructive as long as you don't take it as gospel fact. I think it's fine to highlight numbers like that.

Look, Royce Lewis is awesome. There's no doubt. He kind of has that it factors. It's got something we can't really describe, but he hit whatever it was, four home runs and six playoff games. He had four grand slams in like a one month span. It's just crazy stuff.

He's very talented. Can he stay on the fields? That is the biggest question. for Royce Lewis. I'm kind of surprised he's getting as much benefit of the doubt as he is, and I think maybe timing had to do with it. You know, he was so, he was surging late in the year when people's fantasy championships were on the line.

Homer at 11 times, including four grand slams in his final 32 games, and then he continued to make headlines in the postseason, as brief as the twins' postseason run was. and so I think he just had a lot of helium heading into the offseason here. Yes, he has been productive and yes, he has a great pedigree, and his former number one overall pick in 2017, and I feel like he had lost a lot of that, you know, nobody really thought of him as former first overall pick Royce Lewis,

between all the knee injuries and just how long it took him to get settled in the majors, people had kind of, he had lost that shine of a former number one overall pick. So it seems weird to attach that to him now just because he's starting to have some success. It's only 70 total games in the majors, less than half a season. So to say for sure that he's got it all figured out because it's been a good 70 games, I think he's a leap. I could get excited to take Royce Lewis at a certain point. But right now his ADP, we're only talking 24 drafts, but his ADP is ahead of Manny Machado and Nolan Aronado.

And that, to me, is really hard to justify. As consistent as those guys are, as consistently productive as they are, I understand both were a little overwhelming in 2023, but only a little overwhelming. Neither one of them was bad or anything. And again, the track record is just so, so great for them. I don't know why. I don't see the upside to rolling the dice on Royce Lewis over them.

All right, we got to move a little bit quicker through this next group here, but 11 through 15, again, third base. ranks. We've got Spencer Steer, Jr. Caminero, who is one of the top five prospects in all of baseball, plays for Tampa Bay. Number 13 is Noelvie Marte. He's kind of the forgotten prospect amongst the Reds, but, you know, also a top 25-ish prospect, and he looked good in his short time with the Reds last year. Number 14 is Max Muncie, and number 15 is Jake Berger, who is coming off a 34-Homer season, had the sixth hardest hit baseball last year. he was sixth in overall barrel rate at 16.7%.

And once he joined the Miami Marlins, his strikeout rate came way down. So I don't know if I want to put too much stock in that, but I think there might be some untapped potential there with Jake Berger. I guess some quick thoughts on the names here we haven't talked about. It's got Caminero, Noelvi Marte, and Jake Berger. Yeah, so the young guys, I'm not totally confident.

they're where I want them in my rankings, 12th and 13th. I know Cominero in particular is surprisingly low in early ADP, given the caliber of prospect he is. And we didn't see much of him at the end of last year. The fact the raise of all organizations called him up just after he turned 20 years old, I mean, they usually slow play these guys, I think tells you what kind of talent we're dealing with here in junior Comenaro. Consensus.

Do you think he's going to be up on opening day? I worry that. Yeah, I don't think there. I don't think there was much rationale to call him up at the end of the season if he wasn't going to be. I mean, he'll be a rookie of the year front runner, and you want those guys on the opening day roster with the draft pick incentives that are attached to that now. Not a guarantee, of course, but I think he will be. And Noel V. Marte, he put the ball on the ground a ton when he first got called up,

but it got better over the month and a half he was up. and the three home runs he hit came in his final 19 games. He also stole six bases during his month and a half in the majors, six, six bases. So, you know, you just multiply that by four. We're talking a potential 25 steel guy. And, you know, it's going to be in the most homer-friendly ballpark in baseball. His exit velocity readings are incredible. If he was elevating the ball better from the beginning,

maybe he would have had six homers too. I think there's a ton of upside here for Noel V. Marte. I think he's going to be pencils in a third base right away for them. And, you know, there are so many other exciting alternatives here that he kind of gets lost in the shuffle. But I think Noelvi Marte is very exciting for next year. And then Jake Berger, I want to touch on this.

The improved strikeout rate with the Marlins, you say you don't know how much stock to put in. into it. That wasn't just happenstance. It wasn't just the way baseball is. You have stretches where you strike out less than others. He actually made a change after joining the Marlins

was overtorking his swing I think the way it was put basically swinging too hard it sounds like and he consciously cut down on it and it led to a dramatically improved strikeout rate, much better batting average.

And his exit velocity readings while his average eggs of velocity was lower with the Marlins than with the White Sox was Berger's. Something like nine of his 15 hardest hit balls of the year came with the Marlins, so that the peak eggs of velocities were still there. I don't have that number exactly right. I knew it at one point, but I'll have to look into that again. The peak exit velocities were still there for Jake Berger. So I think the power upside's still there, and he might just be a well-rounded slugger now with the Marlins. I wouldn't feel bad drafting Jake Berger as my starting third basement and yet I rank them 15th to the position.

The final five that we have here, 16 through 20 in the third base ranks and I can tell you right now, Scott, this will be one of your most divisive takes of the off season if this remains. I've already heard. I've already heard about it. If this remains the ranking, number 16, Josh Young of the Texas Rangers of the World Series Texas Rangers, followed by Key Brian Hayes with the pirates, Alec Bohm, Esoc Paredes, who, again, we broke him down on the first base podcast. It does have third base eligibility next season.

And then Brett Beatty kind of rounding it out at number 20. Scott, why do you hate, Josh Young? I mean, the guy only ended up hitting... Do you have the numbers here? Yeah, the guy only ended up hitting 266 with a 781 OPS, which is... I mean, his numbers were actually similar to Alec. Bome's, except Alec Bome is a better batting average source.

I think people remember the hot start he got off to Josh Young hitting 2.95 with 872 OPS the first two months. And remember, I was saying at the time, I don't know that he can sustain this. Turns out he didn't sustain it because from June 1st on, he did miss some time with injury during that stretch, but it was more games overall than the first two months. From June 1st on, Josh Young hit 244 with a 712 OPS. you know, he strikes out a lot. He doesn't hit the ball, especially, I mean, he hits it pretty hard, but it's more like, let me see what the percentile rankings are here.

87th percentile average EV, 77th percentile barrel rate. It's pretty good. 58 percentile max exit velocity, I think, is what I was fixating on. He didn't have the peak ex of velocities that usually expect from the middle of the order slugger. So I just, you know, obviously. 16th sounds really low. He's behind Jake Berger, who I like a lot. He's behind those two exciting prospects. He's behind

you don't go that far up in the rankings and you get to mainstays like Alex Bregman and Nolan Aeronado. It's just a deep position as part of it. And I think Josh Young has more in common with the players behind him, Alec Bowman, Kibrein Hayes, than he does with

the players ahead of him. And I've kind of surprised no one else sees that. I'm not sure what I'm missing. I think the argument, I think the best argument for me ranking Josh Young too low is he's in the Rangers lineup. And so that's going to

really help us run an RBI production. That's the main reason I rank him ahead of like an Alec Bohm. But I don't know. I don't think I think there's so many other ways you can go at third base that are potentially more rewarding that I just don't. I don't want to overrank Josh Young.

I do think the ADP might be a little little bit on the high side right now. It's 88.5 for Josh Young. I think the optimistic take is that he'll be able to provide a similar season to somebody like Alex Breggman or a Nolan Aronado, you know, 250, 260 with like close to 30 home runs. And obviously the counting stats should be really good. But there are some worrisome signs here. He's not a perfect player. I agree with that. plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. 29% strikeout rate.

He doesn't walk very much. He also isn't great against right-handed pitching. Last year he hit 247 with a 717 OPS, and he crushed lefties, so I don't typically love that approach. He was good in the postseason, so basically, you know, I'm kind of like fumbling here, but I don't think he's an easy player to rank by any means.

When you dig a little bit deeper on Josh Young. I think I'll probably have him closer to like the top 12 because I think his median outcome is, again, it's kind of like close to like a Bregman or an Aeronado type. But there are downsides. There's no doubt about that. Well, I think when you get to 12, so Spencer Stier was 11, remember Alex Bregman was 10 for me. Yeah. I think when you get to 12 where I put Junior Commonero, that's where you could make the argument for putting Josh Young.

That's probably what I would do. Yeah, I think so. There's more of the, there's more room for argument with players like Junior Commonero, Noelvi Marte, Max Muncie, Jake Berger. But yeah, I mean, of all those players, I just named, I mean, obviously,

Marte and Common Arrow, you know, but they have so little track record at this point, it's hard to say that for them. But between Burger, Muncie, compared to Burger and Muncie and the guy's behind Young for me, Guy Brian Hayes and Alec Bohm, whose numbers are his more like?

They're more like Hayes and Bone. So, like, I don't see the reason to rank him ahead of Burger and Muncie personally. Yeah, he's an interesting player, Josh Young. Lots of off-season conversations, I think, around him and what to do with him and where to draft him. Where to rank him among third basements. So that should be fun. But there you go. There's your top 20 or so you can find that article on the website if you want to read more about it.

I do want to say real quick before we sign off here, and I know we're pushing the clock. But, Kibrian Hayes, part of the reason I'm expressing enthusiasm for him again, and I rank up behind Young. But he hit a career high 15 homers. Ten came in the final two months. Ten of the 15 homers came in the final two months where his fly ball rate was 41.5%. It was actually similar to the flyball rate Nolan Aeronado had for the year. And we've always said if Kibrian Hayes learns to elevate the ball better, watch out. And that may have been what happened over the final one-third of the season for him.

If you can continue that pace he was on, I think a 20-home-or-20-steel season is possible for Kibbrien Hayes. And yet I can only rank him as high as 17th at the position because of all the other talent there, including Josh Young, who's 16th. Yeah, that's a great point on Kibrienne Hayes during that span. He also started to raise his pull rate a little bit too. So, again, for power, that's what we're looking for. Fly-balls, pull those fly balls. and usually turns into good things there. Hopefully, Ki-Bryan Hayes can carry it over into 2024.

We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks, as always, for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.