Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 Top First Base Prospects, Dynasty Trades & AFL Updates (10/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 27, 2022

At first glance, first base prospects are kind of light (2:15). ... Kyle Manzardo is a fast riser is prospect circles (6:55). ... What do you need to know about Jacob Berry, Blaze Jordan and Niko Kavadas (16:30). ... Which prospects do we need to know for 2023 redraft leagues (23:37)? ... Matt Mervis or Triston Casas (30:23)? ... News (43:39): Adam Wainwright will be back for one more season. ... Which first baseman should you look to buy or sell in dynasty leagues (46:25)? ... We wrap up with Edouard Julien and the recent Arizona Fall League updates (52:50). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. If you're wondering why we didn't talk about Matt Mervis on our previous podcast, we wanted to save him for this one. What's up, and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, October 27th. I am Frank Stanfell joined by Scott.

White and Chris Welsh, not Chris Wells, like I said last week. AKA the Welsh, today on the show, top 10 first base prospects in Dynasty. We've got prospects to know for redraft next season. Matt Mervis. Dynasty by low, sell high at the position, Arizona Fall League updates, and much more. Scotty, I don't mean to be a negative Nancy up top here to start the show, but first base prospects doesn't seem nearly as deep as the catcher position that we talked about last week.

You know, we're grabbing third baseman, second baseman who might have played a little bit of first base in the minors. It just doesn't seem very good. What do you think? No, well, that's typical. From a player development standpoint, you want to keep players at the most premium position that it seems feasible they could play,

knowing you can always fall back on first base. Like first base is the ultimate fallback position where you, you can't quite make it work at any of the more premium positions, but you know the bat is majorly capable. So that's what you shift the guy over to, you know, at the last minute as soon as he reaches the majors or whatever. So there's a reason it's historically been the deepest position in fantasy because that's where all the bats that can't play defense very well wind up.

But, you know, when you're looking at just the prospect pool, first base is always going to be. lacking. All right. Welsh, what's up, man? Have you ever

thought about changing your first name to the? Yeah, a legal name. It's actually my legal name.

So I say you don't have to use my God-given name of the. You can just call me Welsh if you want. You know, funny fact about the prospect stuff with first base.

I made this a big point when we were like doing all of our prep, whatnot, is that like, I use air quotes with first base because a top 10 first base is kind of eh.

There's guys that qualified other positions. I guarantee you. guarantee you. There are a big group of talented players that qualify other positions right now that their home will be first base. So that's why it's sometimes it's disingenuous and it's kind of difficult to talk about. There's only so many. And here's a prime example. The Glendale team out here in the Arizona Fall League, which has got all the fun prospects out here, Xavier Warren is been a catcher. And I think he's played a couple different positions for the Milwaukee Brewers.

And one of the days I actually asked him and I said, hey, I said, it's really interesting. I saw you playing first base? And I said, what's going on with that? Are you transitioning into first base? And he said, Glendale just doesn't have first baseman. He's like, actually, we just don't have first baseman. So they asked some guys who would play first base. That's kind of a thing that's going on here. The Salt River team has had a slew of different guys, Colt Keith, third baseman. Davis on de la Santos, third baseman has played there. I mean, Matt Mervis, who's out here, is one of the few true first baseman that's going on. And that is very representative. of the prospect side of first base.

So we can talk about it, but I also think it's healthy to talk about some of the other guys that might transition into that as we move forward, because it can get a little ugly when you look at first base only prospects. Yeah, I was kind of nitpicking all the different choices for discussion here in the first base prospects

because it's like, well, that guy's not going to be eligible at first base on our side this year. That guy's not going to be eligible of first base. But if you're talking about 10, 10 prospects who meet the very strict criteria of who would be eligible at first base on CBS. It would be a very unimpressive list. We're kind of cheating a little here. We're kind of cheating a little here, putting in some prospects who may not appear as a first baseman on our site.

But the thinking is that's where they'll ultimately wind up. because like I already talked about so many bat first prospects do ultimately wind up his first baseman. And you know what Welsh, I think what stands out to me here, I think we've at least been spoiled the past couple of years in that we had maybe one standout name or two standout prospects at the position like in Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson. And right now it just feels like we don't have that guy. We don't have that guy right now. And, you know, maybe someone will emerge. obviously we're going to talk about Tristan Kossis and Matt Mervis and, you know, maybe Kossis has lost a little bit of his luster because he didn't perform so well

with the Red Sox later on in the season, but I still think we like him quite a bit. But that's what stands out to me, Welsh, is that we don't have that guy, that name, you know? I totally agree. It's actually like two of the top three names at first base, which might be when all of a sudden done what we're talking about, there might be four guys that are inside the top 100, but at least the two of the top three, those guys weren't really known to most people last year. One, obviously, you know, Matt Mervis kind of came out of nowhere for a lot of people. There's an unknownness to it. So I think it makes everybody feel uncomfortable.

There isn't a star. There isn't a stud. You can argue, obviously, Kossis, and actually a guy that I have above Kossis, but there isn't the star power that has followed it with some of the other guys. So I completely agree. Let's get into the Welsh's top 10 first base prospects in Dynasty Leagues. and we will start with number one, which includes Miguel Vargas,

who will have first base eligibility on CBS heading into next season. Of course, you probably know him as a either third base or outfield prospect with the Dodgers, but he did play a few games at first base, and that's where he will qualify on CBS next season. Tristan Kossis with the Red Sox, Kyle Manzardo with the Tampa Bay Rays,

Matt Mervis with the Cubs, and Tyler Soderstrom, who we spoke about last week, who looks like he's going to bounce around, catcher first base, Maybe he winds up earning both of those eligibility when it's all said and done in his fantasy baseball career. I'm going to hold off on the redraft names for now because we'll get to those a little bit later on. Well, so what I want to ask you about first is Kyle Manzardo, who you have third on this list, who just had a monster season in the minors. He had 327, 22 homers, an OPS up over a thousand.

And I know he was someone that was a huge riser in fantasy baseball circles this past season. Yeah. Kyle Manzardo, um, with a big, big, hard hit. numbers, statistically had a really great year, 22 homers, a stolen base, 327 batting average, and over 400 OBP. He did it in 300 and, I think it was 324, bats. You know, fun fact, too, he was here a couple weeks ago. He was here here like a week and a half ago catching a surprise game and a Salt River game with an agent and working out here in Arizona. He's not the biggest bodied guy like some of these guys, they list him around 6-1-205, but as far as

what he did in the season, it's, it's completely stood out. I mean, when you, again, you get minor league and you start sorting and stuff like that, he was one of the top guys. Actually, if you go and sort, like even just look at batting average, you're going to get all like Dominican Summer League and complex stuff. He is the number one first baseman, as far as batting average goes, that has a A ball or higher designation hitting 327. There really wasn't a whole lot close. Technically, Jonathan Oronda with the Tampa Bay raise, they qualify, at least Fangraphs does as far as first base goes, qualifies him there. Matt Mervis was a little bit lower. But, you know, the hard hit numbers have stood out for Manzardo. You got OBP. You've got

power. I mean, 22 homers and under 350 at bats completely stands out. But the hard hit, high batting average and OBP, it's everything that you want out of a first base prospect, because then you feel like you're not having as much instability. Plus, another fun fact, 65 strikeouts total, 59 walks. I mean, it does represent the total package. I still have some questions about the eliteness as far as like what is going to happen with the ball flying and everything like that. I, unlike maybe some other people that evaluate prospects, I think Manzardo might be in a

league of his own. I kind of think he belongs in a tier of my top three or four guys. I think they all are kind of mushed in together. he's a little bit lower than a few of the other guys. You've got some proximity on the other side. But you're looking for hard hit. You're looking for 3, 4, 5 slash. You're looking for the leader in batting average as far as first baseman go.

And you're looking for the strike zone stability as far as strikeouts and walks goes. I mean, he checks every single one of those boxes. So I don't think it's out of line to have him be one of the top guys. Scott, when I hear Tampa Bay prospect, the first thing that I want to look at splits. Left-handed batter with Kyle Manzardo. I pulled up his splits from the minor leagues last season. Against lefties, he hit 244 with a 782 OPS. Against righties, he hit 348, 1135 OPS.

Obviously, we're still a long way until he gets to the majors, and he can improve those numbers. So, you know, it's not like the end-all be-all for Kyle Manzardo. But it's just something to, I think, keep in the back of your mind with the fact that he's a raise prospect. Yeah, I mean, certainly. you see much worse splits from left-handed hitters against lefties.

They only get so many reps against them. It's always an uphill battle. Almost always an uphill battle. But yeah, I mean, it's hard to find anything to not Kyle Monsardo for. I mean, the guy just

looks like a hitting savant. And what makes it particularly amazing is that was his first professional season. His first professional season, he totally dominated minor league pitching. Made it to AA, by the way, got 30

games at AA and continued to do what he did at high A. Technically second professional season, sorry. He did get a few games at rookie ball in 2021, played 13 minor league. First full season. The best way to say, the first full season of ball. Yeah.

So we're talking about somebody who has made it look easy basically from the get-go. and I mean, as much as I've raved about Vinny Pasquantino over this past year, it's the numbers he's put up having reached the upper levels already. Mazzardo is very similar when you talk about the bat control, the plate discipline, the ability to impact the ball. I would feel better if he was in a different organization

because, yeah, the Rays loved their plato plato, and the fact Monsardo bats left-handed isn't doing him any favors as far as that goes. But the Rays are also a team that is always on the lookout for cheap offense. And they're still like trying to make do with G-Man Choy at first base. If Mazzardo's already doing this kind of damage at AA, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility. We see him at some point in 2023. You know, obviously he has to keep it up.

But the Rays are always a team in contention. And if it looks like he'll be a help to them, then I don't see why they'd hold them back. back. Yeah, he will turn 23 years old. This is Kyle Manzardo in July of next season. So, you know, maybe he's a late season call up, August, September, something like that. Just a name to remember. And of course, you know, I'm sure he's rostered in most, if not all dynasty leagues at this point. Six through 10 in the Welsh's first base prospect rankings. We've got Jacob Barry of the Marlins. He was their sixth overall pick in this year's draft. Blaze Jordan of the Red

Sox, Nico Cavadas, also of the Red Sox, Michael Tolia of the Rockies, who we saw later on in the season, and Yon Kenzi, Noel of the Cleveland Guardians. Welsh, before I come to you with some analysis on these players, Scott, I believe some of these will not have first base eligibility on CBS. Yeah, so this is where we start having to fudge things a bit so that we have interesting prospects to talk about. So Jacob Berry will be listed as a third baseman for 2023. so will blaze Jordan Michael Tolia who of course saw time in the majors

he'll be a right fielder to begin 2023 and presumably he'll be in the Rockies starting lineup to begin 2023 and then help me out with this name again Welsh Yeah you'll Yokensi Yokensi Noel

Yokinsey Noel I think is how it is I remember I was actually in last year in it was in what was it, rookie ball. And now I'm forgetting his name. He was a former player who's been coaching with the Guardians for a couple years, the complex ball.

And I asked him about Yohenski. And I think I probably said his name three different ways. And then he was just like, yep, yep, yep. I could never get him to give me the proper pronunciation. I was like, just give me the exact. But, you know, Kinsey, Noel, I think is what I'm, I think what we want to go with. Okay. So he'll be outfield eligible.

He'll be listed as an outfielder on CBS. Yes, but I think, especially Noel and Blaze Jordan, I guess maybe Michael Tolia. I mean, he's a good defensive first baseman, probably a stretch to play him in the outfield, even though it's where the Rockies mostly used him last year. Like, their future is probably going to be a first base, right? Yeah. And something I do with my personal ranks is I try to, I try to obviously give like current positional stuff, but when there's any, you know, ambiguousness to it, I try to have.

future projection on them. There's been plenty of guys that were short. Like I had moved Noelvie off a shortstop for like a long time and he had gone to third base. So I attempt a little bit more than you would see on it like CBS or any, um, sites, you know, um, eligibility. I'm going to go more of future projection. Like I feel pretty confident Jacob Barry is going to be a first baseman.

Uh, Noel has actually played third. He's actually played been a decent third baseman. The outfield is weird. Um, but totally is another one of those guys. I really feel like he's going to be a future first baseman for this team. But yeah, you got to fudge the numbers a little bit. Otherwise, we'd be talking about guys that you would, every single one of you would find in your leagues. And we also don't want to prop up guys that are probably like 600th ranked in fantasy.

Because that's literally what we'd be doing if we were sticking strict to first base. Well, so let me ask you about the top three names on this list. Jacob Berry, six overall pick. I mentioned him looking at MLB pipeline. They give him a 60-hit grade, a 55 power grade. and I believe this is the player you were talking about. You were on with Towers, Chris Towers, around midseason, you know, right after the draft happened.

I think you comps him to Kyle Schwerber and Jacob Berry. So talk to me about him and then maybe some of the comparisons between Blaze Jordan and Nico Cavadas. I don't know that there are any, but they play in the same organization. So I'll just throw them in that together. So one thing I point out is that wasn't like necessarily my comparison. and it was the Schwabber comparison followed Jacob Berry a whole lot. Jacob Barry used to play actually at U of A.

he transferred to LSU to go with the big powerhouse. He's got kind of that Schwerber-esque swing. He can get into him. He can just, I mean, it's huge loft like you see with Schwerver, a lot of hands, a lot of lower body power in there. The batting average I kind of worry about is going to struggle. So I'm, I think I'm a little bit lower on Jacob Berry than others, especially in like first year player drafts.

This guy has monster power. He's been in the limelight, obviously, in baseball community of playing at LSU. And he did really well. He played really well at LSU. But early on, I think there's been some early struggles in his first year, but we don't really pay too much attention. Almost like Scott had said where it's like Manzardo's first professional season, it kind of is.

Like playing a handful of games at rookie ball are making a little jump we don't look into, especially college guys. I want to see what happens this year. But there's swing and miss in the game, but there's huge power. And there's a lot of Kyle Schwerber stuff out there if people want to get it. But Schwerver also has like the, not that it matters, but it was just like open leg stance type of stuff where Jacob Berry can, his legs can be a lot more inside. And it's just a lot more, you know, pull power that he's got. What was the other one?

The other one was, oh, Nico Cavadas and Blaze Jordan, two very different guys. Nico is out here in the Arizona Fall League. Blaze Jordan, much more athletic guy. Blaze was like the big internet phenom. If everyone remembers, he's the kid that was 13 years old on. YouTube hitting big bombs. Like 500 foot home runs. Yeah,

500. Yeah, exactly. Home run contests and stuff like that. He lost a whole bunch of weight, which I think helped. But I still feel like he's ultimately going to either be like left field or first base. So I qualify him as a first baseman.

I think the hit tool is better than Cavadis. I think the power is bigger than Cavadda. I like, he's actually a great, great, great guy. Nico Cavadis is. But a little bit shorter, a little bit stockier.

it's not quite vocal Bach-ish at all, but you could see the future potential on that. So the bat's got to continue to play. I think it's going to be relatively mediocre. I like Blaze for the future just because he's a lot younger. He does have a lot more athleticism. There might be some stolen basin. It's just future.

And, you know, I mean, 13 years old, you hit in 500 foot homers. If they can unlock that into the future, which he's had a good season. I think he just hit under 300. He also, something I always love to see with prospects, he overcame. I think he had a really rough start to the season, and he was really able to overcome with his batting average through the year. He's got a beautiful swing to technical swing that's been working through years. So Cavadas is just a closer guy, played at Notre Dame.

Proximity is kind of out there, but I think it's going to be pretty tough for him to get a first base gig anywhere. It might be kind of DH only in the long future. So Blaze is the better bet. All right. Blaze Jordan, by the way, awesome name. I mean, you have to factor that into the prospect ranking too, right? Like, it doesn't get much better than Blaze Jordan.

You know, imagine. You're like, I'm like, hi, I'm Chris. He's like, hi, I'm Blaze. Blaise Jordan. I'm like, okay, all right, man. I do want to mention for Jordan since we talked about, you know, the 500 foot home runs at age 13. He did hit just eight home runs and 370 of bats this year.

It doesn't mean the power isn't in there. There's not a lot of loft in a swing right now. and he's still a teenager. This was his age 19th season. I think this is a great point that you bring up that we should note, like these guys are, especially at these levels, like he's built for power.

Like clearly that was his mantra. He's built for power. But he came into this organization, learning how to, you know, get into pitch recognition and hit for contact and not overhit. And in 2022, he had 30 doubles.

And yes, he only had 12 homers, but the old dumb. that power is the last tool to develop, he has that tool, but he just hasn't readjusted his swing. Like there's, you know,

Matt Mervis, we haven't really talked about here. Matt Mervis is one of those guys that like, the homer today, I know we're going to talk about it a little bit. That homer was so upper cut loft and he did it again in his next at bat, which he missed and he hit it 400 feet up in the air. Like,

Blaze is not at that level right now. That organization wants him to hit, hit for contact, not chase as much as possible. When you get Blaze into, having two or three years of just seeing pitches throughout the year, understanding baseball at a professional level, and you get to let him start unlocking the power,

that's what you get excited about. So for an under 20-year-old kid, for two years worth of baseball to be hitting right around 300, last year hit 300, this year hit, I think, 289, that's a big plus. That's something to get relatively excited about. Yeah, and I said eight home runs, you're right, it's 12. I was looking at the level where he spent the most time.

So it was 12 home runs and 463 of bats. But I agree, like, if he gets that, if he gets better bat control as a foundation and then can tap into that power, as he moves up the ladder, as he grows into his 20s, like, it's a good start for Blaze Jordan. And if there's, you know,

so many of these prospects at this position in particular are basically on the verge of contributing. He's more of a long-term play. one of the field. But the foundation is good. I wanted to follow up on Jacob Barry too, because it was interesting to me that you emphasize the power because most of what I've read about him

treats him like a hit overpower prospect, like a good plate discipline guy, which, you know, I mean, evaluations are constantly changing, so I'm not like second guessing your opinion. I just find it interesting that the consensus his view of him seems to be more hit tool overpower. And a lot of that is because his first two years, he hit crazy high batting average.

He hit 352 at Arizona. And then in 2002, he hit 370 at LSU. But it's more about like professional hitting. I mean, when he came to the Marlins, he hit 264 in A ball and one and a buck 25 and four games in rookie ball. I think like when you watch him, his swing and his approach. in my mind, doesn't feel like a 3.30 hitter or a 320 hitter or anything like that. It feels like a guy that is going to recheck in pretty quickly, by the way. I think he's one of those guys that's going to pretty quickly start changing into that power form,

and you're going to start losing some batting average. But we'll see from this year. His first stint of professional baseball was a lot more of what I'm talking about, but his college career definitely does tell otherwise. He didn't never crack 20 homers. and he had a 350 batting average plus for his two years. So it definitely speaks to that. All right.

Let's move into first base prospects to know for redraft leagues for next season. And the first name up top here is Miguel Vargas. And I already mentioned again, you probably know him more so as like a third base outfield prospect. But he will enter next season as first base eligible on CBS. And in the minors, he crushed it. He hit 304, 17 homers, 16 steals, a 915 OPS. he got a chance to, I'm not going to say play. He was with the Dodgers organization.

He was up, he was riding the bench. He wasn't really playing very much. But that might change next year, Scott. I was just looking into their team context for next season. There's a $16 million club option, $16 million club option for Justin Turner. Trey Turner is a free agent. So, I mean, just straight off the bat, you can imagine Gavin Lucks, slides over to shortstop.

Chris Taylor is playing second base. So either way, I mean, there could be third base available. There could be left field available. Like, there's different ways for Miguel Vargas to work in here. What is just your expectation right now for his playing time next season? I really like Miguel Vargas. And I was very disappointed that the Dodgers didn't give him more of a chance. Like, dating back to like June, he was the guys like, okay, this is going to be his moment to get called up.

This is going to be his moment to get called up. He finally does get called up, I think, around the trade deadline. And is around for like three games and then gets sent back down. Does come back in September, but doesn't play much. I mean, he ended up playing mostly first base, which is, you know, the Freddie Freeman stronghold. So, like, clearly that's not his future with the Dodgers, unless you're talking about a situation where he and Freeman are alternating DH in first base. He was primarily a third baseman in the miners. didn't make a single appearance at third base

his whole time in the majors. So I'm just having a hard time thinking along with the Dodgers here. And of course, I mean, the reason I like Miguel Vargas is because I think the bat is special. I think he profiles to hit for average and power. Looks a lot like, to me,

looks a lot like a young Miguel Cabrera at the plate. So I'm very excited about his potential in fantasy, but I don't really, I mean, of course, you're talking about the Dodgers. Are they going to have Gavin Lux's their shortstop next year? I seriously doubt it. If they don't bring back Turner, they'll sign one of the other big guys out there.

And because Vargas didn't play third base during his stint, the majors, is he really going to be their choice to step in for Justin Turner if they let Turner walk? I don't know. I think more likely there's a path for him in left field. That would be my guess is his, uh, if the Dodgers do want him to be an everyday player sooner than later, that's where it would be. But I don't know what they're thinking.

I'm having a hard time. I mean, they made the move. And I think that you kind of hit everything that's important here is the move prior to the call up was they put him in the outfield. And they started getting him work there because they knew that's where they needed to for that season. But I still think there's a real possibility that, like, you don't have issues with his transition to third base.

Like, he's got that. Like he hasn't played it in a little bit. but he's got that down if they want to make that commitment. I think what Miguel Vargas offers them is the flexibility to make whatever moves they need to make in the offseason. They can make a big play for an outfielder. And if they don't, they can go here. If they make a big play, let's say for an outfielder, it's probably at the expense of not picking up an option on Justin Turner so you can re-sign a guy like Trey Turner.

So I think he offers flexibility. I completely agree across the board. I love Miguel Vargas. I remember watching him in rookie ball out here. It's always been high patience. It's always been high-consum. He has never tapped into elite elite power, but you make that type, you have that doubles type of contact. You're going to be able to walk into big homers. He had 17 homers and the miners also stealing

some bases. So I'm a big, big Miguel Vargas guy because he's one of just those, you know, those rare corner infields. That's why we get all hot and excited about like Kyle Manzardo and even Matt Mervis. It's like when you get these guys that don't come in and are already projecting 175 strikeouts on them and can walk, they're already a step ahead of the game that they're going to find ways to contribute, which is going to continue to allow them to stay on the field. And as long as they stay on the field, they can keep putting up stats for us. And Miguel Vargas is a guy once he taps into it. If you get, if you got 20, 10 out of your third basement, if that's what he qualifies at,

you're going to be really, really happy about it. So Miguel Vargas, even though we're talking about him at first base, probably is not going to be there in the future. But I'm with Scott. I absolutely love him. At least for 2023, he will have first base eligibility. So maybe, look, if you can get 10 to 15 steals from your first base, Baseman? That's valuable. We don't really have a lot of first baseman that can run for fantasy purposes.

All right, we are 27. Frank, since we're talking about knowing for 2023 redraft, where did, I know you want to move on. Where did Vargas go in that 15 team draft you did? Scott always put me on. Let me take a guess. How many, how many total picks? Oh, a lot. It's a 50 round draft, 15 teams. I'm going to say everybody in the world. I'm going to say 431. Man, I would have to do some quick math. You guys are probably better than me. Go look at 431. I feel good about that, I guess.

First pick of round 28. Okay, so not, like, if we're talking to 12-team contexts, there's a good chance Miguel Vargas isn't even drafted. So that's good to know. So, wait, 15 times 28. No, 15 times 27. So it's 406. You were close.

No, no, what did you say? 4D something. I said 4-31. What is it 406? 4-06. Yeah, you're pretty close. I mean. Nostra welshus.

Those are some good, that's some good number guess in there. That seems entirely too late, by the way, too. I mean, just thinking, like, you know, in hindsight. I mean, obviously, if the buzz in spring training is, okay, he's positioning himself to play whatever position on opening day, then he's going to shoot up the rankings. But if not, there's a lot of uncertainty, the minute the Dodgers say, hey, Miguel Vargas has got our left field gig, I mean, we're going to go up into. easy 200s will pop into probably the one. I wouldn't be so, I wouldn't even be shocked if they gave a full commitment. If you saw him inside the top 150,

it might be a little bit dramatic and everything. But if the Dodgers committed to him and you had him on opening day, that might be worthwhile. Yeah, we could just have a rocket ship for Miguel Vargas. It's unfounded confidence, but I feel pretty confident. I feel like he's going to play. We'll see what they do in the off season. What I was going to say before is that we made it this far.

We haven't talked about Matt Mervis yet, who I think most people are waiting patiently to hear your thoughts, both of your thoughts about, because I know Scott likes him quite a bit. Welsh, you have a clip which I will pull up from your Twitter account, a clip of Matt Mervis just absolutely destroying a ball. And that's exactly what he did in the minors this year,

where he hit 309 with 36 home runs, a 984 OPS. And there is a legit chance that he is either the opening day first baseman or D.H. for the Cubs next season. Welsh, your thoughts? Yeah, so before you even hit play on the clip, there's this funny thing that happened. So I have this nice gentleman sitting next to me. And he, I think his brother, best friend was being one of the bat boys, bat boys. The guy was like 65 years old going between the thing.

And he doesn't really know a whole lot. And he asked me, he's like, everybody was telling me I got to pay attention to this one guy with the A's. And I was rattling off names. We couldn't figure it out. And I said, all right, well, here's what I'll do for you. Look at the guy in the on deck circle. I'm like, you probably know the guy that's up to bat. That's Jason Dominguez.

That's a big name. And he kind of shook his head. Probably didn't. I said, pay attention to that guy right there in the on deck circle. He's like, who's that? I said, that's Matt Mervis with the Cubs. And Jason comes up. He gets right out.

He does, you know, a little liner to first base. Matt Mervis comes up. Takes three straight balls before he hit play. He gets a, this against a lefty. He takes a fastball, an off speed pitch, another fastball. He watches them all. He has perfect. He knows exactly where these are going.

I actually have the entire video I didn't put on here, but you can see him watch it. He then on 3-0 count takes a strike down the middle because he's a smart player. This is the 3-1 pitch off of a lefty. And then you're going to hear me talk to the guy after if you've got the volume up. And listen to this bad boy. He skies this up and we weren't sure it was going. And then you're going to hear right here.

Last night. That's a pretty good call when I tell you to watch for him, right? Right? Yeah, Homer. And that was, I tell him that's a pretty nice call when I tell you to watch for this guy. He skyed this. And you can see the approach. He's just waiting on it.

It's a fastball inside high. He turns on it. He has an upper cut approach. He put it so high in the air. No one was assured. It went in the back of the bullpen. And it was his fifth homer. He's, I think, tied or has, I think him and Heston Curs said are tied for the lead in homers here.

And, you know, I was telling this guy when I was explaining Matt Mervis to him, I said, you know, why it's so interesting, this guy improved his strikeout rate at every level as he went up. You don't see those type of things. And then the last other funny thing I have for you on Mervis, not that this matters for the fantasy, because I'm in. I'm in. I think there's a lot of question marks about him and what do we know about him and, you know, that we don't have a far track record. But what you can tell on what he performed this year and what I've seen is he is a patient hitter. He finds his spots. And he absolutely. crushes mistakes. There's four people sitting to my right. And they've all got his new branded stuff that says Mash Mervis. And he's got this new thing. And there's just these people. So I happen to come over and hear this guy go, oh, do you guys like Matt Mervis? And he's got a Mash Mervis shirt on. And they're like, oh, yeah, these guys are from Chicago and they're all excited. And this gentleman is talking to them. Oh, this is great. This is great. This is great. You guys are fans. And then they asked, they say, oh, are you a big fan of Matt Mervis? And he goes, I'm his dad. I'm actually his dad. And then so the dad came over to show support for them wearing his new branded stuff. And he hits

this huge bomb. It was a good Matt Mervis day. And he's got, he's just got great control across the board. There's not a lot to not like. I've pointed out my little things of, you know, fastball's low. He can be a little aggressive. But you're going to give guys all of the benefit of the doubt when, you know, they have a really, really good idea of the strike zone and he just destroys mistakes. That was like one of those prototypical moments too of three balls, one strike,

lefty, crush, gone. You gotta love Matt Mervis and I know the Twitter world has loved it so far. So it's a great, great video and Scott, just more reason to be a little bit more excited

about Matt Mervis. Yep. And we're wearing out the name Matt Mervis here on this podcast. We're kind of, we're kind of, We're kind of making him a known entity, but most of the people you encounter, this is still a pretty obscure guy. I had trouble all throughout the season.

Matt Mervis was putting up these huge numbers at every level, but I had trouble finding much information on him throughout the season. And I know there were a couple guys giving me a hard time on Twitter because he wasn't in the CBS database. Well, before we add him to our database, there's a sports information provider we use that he has to be added to their database before we can get him in our database. And so I was hounding them for months to get Matt Mervis and theirs because I felt like he needed to be in ours. And finally, it did happen. But that just goes to show you, like how this isn't, this isn't, you know, no prospect, I guess is a household name. But even among the prospect ranks, this is not. a well-known guy. If he does enter spring training as the favorite for first base or emerges

as the favorite over the course of spring training, and look, he spent more time at AAA than any other level this past year. He's already 24 years old. Cubs don't have a clear answer at first base. So it seems pretty plausible. That'll be the case. Then he's a guy who could become a hot commodity and fantasy very, very quickly. So what I'm saying is. is now's the time to get in on Matt Mervis. Speaking of Matt Mervis in this draft that I did, part of the reason I did this draft is like, I wanted to get ahead of the game.

Like, let me just draft a bunch of guys that I think are going to rise a crazy amount over the next couple of months. Matt Mervis was already a 20th round pick. So to put that in perspective, Miguel Vargas, 28th round. Matt Mervis, 20th round. And the next name I'm going to talk about,

Tristan Kossus went at the end of the 16th round. So these guys are almost being drafted as like corner infield players. Right off the bat. And speaking of Tristan Kosses, he did play 27 games with the Red Sox, got off to a very slow start. His final 13 games with the team. He hit 316, three homers, a 1069 OPS, more walks than strikeouts during that 13 game stretch.

And three of his five total home runs, I noticed went to the opposite field. I love to see that, especially for a young power hitter like Tristan Kosses. That is just amazing. And especially when that opposite field is the green monster. Yeah. Well, I remember I was watching one of the games against the Yankees, and he hit it in Yankee Stadium to the opposite field. And everyone talks about the short porch, but left field and left center is actually the deepest part of Yankee Stadium. And he cleared it with ease, Tristan Kossis did. So there's a lot to like here. Welsh, give me your quick thoughts on him. And who would you rather have for just next season? We're talking redraft, Kossis or Matt Mervis?

Ooh, it's a great question. I have Kossis higher. Funny enough, we've talked about like Manzardo and Mervis. Kossis, as far as I've seen, in person because I saw Kossas last year in the AFL has the best pure raw power of any of these guys. He's a maniac too. He's very, very technical about everything that he does. He's very intertwined in his own swing and his own approach. He doesn't have,

I'm a little bit worried about like the batting average and the patience and stuff that you see with Matt Mervis. You don't quite see with Tristan Kossis. But I think Kossis definitely has the potential to be a special player in that ballpark. And he's not going to accept, you know, bad, bad results for too long out of any of these guys. So, yeah, I'm a Tristed Kossis guy for sure, even though the results maybe don't quite add up to like what Manzardo did in the lower levels and the hype that we're getting with Mervis. I wouldn't even be shocked, by the way, if you started seeing Mervis go ahead of Kossus in some areas.

And I don't, I have a question if Mervis really is going to break camp. I think it's going to, like, upset some Cubs fans, especially if they go and they bring in a first baseman and it takes a little bit longer. I think Kossis has the better opportunity to break for obvious reasons because he played there than Mervis does early on. I would give the edge to him. But I leave it open for Mervis to be way more than any of us are really expecting. Scott, I know Kossis was ranked inside your top 20 first baseman for next year. How close was Matt Mervis to that list? Well, he's still further back. Let's see, I'm looking at the points rankings right now. I don't think it's that different in Roto. I have him 29th at first base. But that's kind of not expecting him to be the opening day first baseman. Obviously,

he'll move up if that changes and maybe he'll be right there behind Casas. I'd have a hard time moving him ahead of Casas. Cases has been a top prospect for several years now. And what I've really liked, he's always walked a ton, even in his major league stint, he walked a ton, despite hitting batting under 200 for that stint. He reached basically like a 360 clip, you know, in addition to that opposite field power you've talked about. And the comparisons to him have been lofty.

I've seen Cody Bellinger before. I think that that's kind of thinking power over hit. And it's worth pointing out that comparison which was made back when Cody Bellinger was still a big deal. I've seen Freddie Freeman before. I've seen Joey Votto before. He has kind of that heady approach to hitting where he likes to choke up at times.

He just seems like a really smart intellectual hitter sort of like a Joey Votto. But the point is, despite the kind of modest minor league numbers, this looks like a guy who is going to, is going to be one of those prospects who exceeds those numbers. I feel pretty confident saying that, especially, like, I was really impressed what he did

in his first stint in the majors, despite what the final batting average was. A lot of really good signs. For those watching live or on demand, please hit the like button on YouTube, subscribe to the channel, and drop a comment. Let us know which first base prospect

will make the biggest impact in fantasy baseball next season. and for those listening, please hook us up with a five-star rating and review on Apple or Spotify. Let's take a break. We'll get to some news and notes here on fantasy baseball today. The news and notes, not much going on. We're still here waiting for the World Series to start. By the way, Welsh, we haven't got a World Series prediction from you. Do you have a strong take either way?

I don't know if it's super strong. I'm going to go with the Astros. The Phillies are fun. Philly fans, but I just think that team is built. I'm very, very careful about it. I actually had this moment where it was an Astros pitcher going up against a Phillies hitter in the AFL the other day. And I was like, man, give me some result. Give me a big strikeout or a big homer so I can put this on Twitter and just get everybody riled up.

We didn't get that. Though we did have a homer from an Astro today. I would go with, I'm going to go with the stroh. I'm going to say Astros in six. The news and notes, by the way, Adam Wainwright will return for the Cardinals for another season in 2023. It will be his last really struggled down the stretch, wound up with a, 3.71 ERA, 1.28 whip. Someone for deeper leagues, NL only, I don't know how viable he's going to be.

Maybe he's a streamer in like your 12-team standard league. But Adam Wainwright is back. Speaking of the Cardinals, they're expected to pursue catcher help, which makes sense. Yadir Malina has retired. Wilson Contreras maybe within the division. I don't know. Let's see what happens. Jordan Lawler, this one's unfortunate.

It has been shut down from the Arizona Fall League and will miss six to eight weeks after suffering a fractured left scapulo. Well, so you have any more on this situation? Nick Richmond, I believe a pitcher with the Boston Red Sox hit him with a 90-something mile an hour sinker. And he came out pretty nonchalant and then he's gone. And I actually, the prospect people follow my very good buddy, James Anderson from Rotowire. I was commenting to people that I feel bad because I have selfishly taken all the Jordan Lawler here and got all the fun stuff and now he's gone. And I immediately thought of him.

and today I got a text from him. He's like, come on, the Lawler News. He's like, he's the guy I came here to see. He's like, it'll still be fun, but not as fun. So unfortunately, as the baseball world collides down, they're not going to get Lawler. And I'm disappointed in it, but they said it's not going to be anything crazy

to affect spring training. I think six to eight week returns. So by the time, I think the Diamondbacks might be doing a camp in January. He'll probably be at the facility working. You're going to get all the guys back. Drew Jones should be healed. Jordan Lawler will be back. Corby and Carol will be rocking.

So not too worried about it, but it is a bummer for you, Frank, who's going to be here next week. Sucks, man. Would have love to see Jordan Lawler. But alas, you know, these things happen, unfortunately. Yay, the Yankees have announced that Aaron Boone is likely to return as the manager for next season, which just brings me so much joy as the Yankees fan.

The Marlins, by the way, are hiring the Cardinals bench coach, Skip Schumacher. Scott and I were trying to figure that out on the previous. podcast. It is Schumacher as their next manager. So, let's go Marlins, man. I've got a Sandy Al Conn's for a shirt. I love jazz chism. You know, that is my official National League team. I am on. I'm on the Marlins. Way before anyone else. You're sucking up the towers. Are you sucking up the towers? What are you guys rooting for? What do you mean? I think so, man. You know, Jazz is a cranky Marlins fan. Yeah, he really is. Seems to wish failure upon the

team. So he also wishes failure upon the Yankees, which most people do. So I can't really blame him. I think Jazz Chisholm is my favorite position player in baseball right now. So between him and Sandy is... How can you not like the Marlins, man? Anyway, before we get to some Arizona Fall League updates, let's quickly run through some... You know, I'm not going to call them buy low and sell high anymore, because again, like, the people who play in Dynasty leagues,

they're probably pretty intelligent when it comes to playing in this format. Like, I don't know that you can really take that much advantage. I think we can just call it a buy or sell. Like, it wouldn't surprise me if you want to be. to buy a prospect who's on the rise because maybe they haven't, you know, reached the pinnacle of that rise in their prospects. Everybody starts to feel insecure about players when they struggle.

No, I mean, you can't, I don't think, I don't think it could totally fleece a person, but, you know, even in some of the ones I play in, like, these trades happen. And I think the average player out there, the average person, who plays in a dynasty league. Their competition probably isn't on the same level as what we're used to. Probably not. So yeah, I don't think we need to be self-conscious about it.

All right, Scott. Well, let's start with you. And then we'll go to the Welsh. Oh, start with me. We'll start with you this time. I have a bunch of names. I want you to narrow them down for me. You want to take them all again?

No, no, narrow them down for me. Go on me. I'll give you two quick ones. I like this bit, by the way, where let's always go to Scott and then we'll come back to me. That's actually a fun bit. My two, I'm going to go with, My cell is going to be Nate Lowe or Nathaniel Lowe.

Fantastic. Okay. There we go. See, I always get. I love the confirmation. Actually, really does help me. I believe of all of the qualified first baseman in as far as if you want to

sort by war, which would be a standard on fan graphs. You go into the top 30. There's only two first baseman with a higher babb than Nate Lowe, Nathaniel. It's Paul Goldschmidt and Menesis, Joy Minnesus. And I love what Nate Lowe did. I think the homers are great. The RBI run totals, I think, are a little bit telling.

He wasn't a crazy strikeout guy, but the batting average, I just don't think, is going to be sustainable next year. So this isn't like I hate him. It's just I don't think the numbers are going to quite equate. I actually think you could see similar offensive numbers, but with a worst batting average, hopefully the team is going to be better put together,

and you're going to have maybe less of a downturn from Seeger and from Marcus Simmer, but I think he's just a hot name right now that I think I would sell. And my buy, I'm going to pretty much stick to this all off season, is I just love Jose Miranda. I think he's really far down there. I don't know where he's sitting in. I think from a dynasty perspective, he's kind of a difficult buy. But this past season, under 500 bats, hit 15 homers, 268 batting average, which I believe will improve,

a pretty low Babbup, considering he was a relatively batting champion in the minors. He had a 307 Babbup, which I think the power can rise, the strike. out numbers were under 20%. He's going to be put, I think, in a more premium role to be able to hit in the middle of the order with having some RBI opportunity. So I think Jose Miranda is a great buy low, if

you still can while I'm selling Nate Lowe. Well, why do you hate Nate Lowe, dude? Like, what did he do for you? Because I call him Nate and not Nathaniel. I'm not being respectful. I brought this up. I want to point out for Lowe that he had the second highest BAPIP of

any hitter this year. So I think, I think there's a good chance we just saw his best season. Maybe he ends up with a better fantasy season just because the runs in RBI were so low during this otherwise great year. But I think it'll be difficult for him to repeat that combination of batting average

and home runs. He's already 27. And yet 27's young enough that I think people in Dynasty leagues will be like, oh, this is my long-term fixture at first base. So I think that makes sense. I'll defend my guy. I'm going to defend Nate Lowe. wanted to point out his babbib this year, 363, 349 for his career. He runs high babbips.

He hits the ball hard. So I just wanted to point that out. If anyone's looking to sell Nate Lo, I'm in. I'll buy. Scott, you're right. I was meant to say, do you own him everywhere? No, I just, I've always loved Nate Lo, man. I'm happy he came through.

All right. So I don't want to go too obvious with my cell high. I don't think Nate Lo was too obvious. But I'm going to say, I'm going to say Thai France as a cell high because I feel like Thai France is just a player. People seem to like the perception

for him is much better than the actual production. I don't know if it's because France is a cool name. Ty is a cool name. He just kind of has a cool name. And then he hit 340-ish over the first two months this past year.

So really good minor league traffic record. People were thinking this is it. Ty France is. monster. He had like 2.40 over the final four months, and he is somebody who's going to be hard pressed to hit 20 homers even consistently in the current environment, I think. No longer eligible at second base. I think the wind could be taken out of those sales pretty quickly in the years ahead, and now's the time to get a really strong return for him. By low, Matt Olson. No, there's a more obvious answer than Matt Olson.

Or maybe not more obvious, but there's a better answer. Somebody you could, I think you could maybe buy much lower on, and that's Spencer Torkelson. And like, I do think it should be pretty low that you're buying on Spencer Torkelson because he had a disastrous rookie season. But former number one overall pick, obviously, who showed great plate discipline throughout his minor league career. there weren't really many concerns about him coming into his rookie season. I think people thought he was just going to cruise. And so I'm willing to invest in that pedigree still if the price is low enough.

Crap, I just realized I didn't include Scott's Simpson soundbite that he sent me in the Welsh's Arizona Falling. Arizona Falling is going to be over by the time you get in. I know, I know, man. Gosh, shoot, I am. You're going to be here next week. I know. not going to have the sounder. No, you know what?

I will have it for next week. That's it. There you go. That's my Homer sounds good. Anyway, let's get some Arizona Falling updates with the Welsh. Your current OPS leader in the AFL is Twins prospect

Edward Julian, who is batting 390 with four doubles, four homers, 14 walks to 13 strikeouts, and a 1325 OPS. Walsh, I texted you this earlier. I think people were going to want to know, will he make an impact next season with the Minnesota Twins? So I'm a little bit stuck on if he will because that team is just so stacked with guys like him. Whereas we've got here, we've got a nice loud single he put together.

This is about a week ago. Bam. And something to note that I love about him is that swing. It is so technical, so prototypical, great bat. And just no messing around. He just just drives the ball, gets his leg separated. He's just got a great sense of hitting. I think, and I told this to multiple people, I don't know if he's a star, but I think he's a 10-year vet in this league. And he's stealing bases.

But here's the thing I think is interesting about him, is I think he can play all over. He actually reminds me of like a quintessential raise prospect. He's playing second base, but I think he can play first. He could play third. My problem is they've got a lot of those guys. Luis Arise, Jose Miranda,

Royce Lewis is going to be coming back. So Austin Martin, who's here, who's having a great Arizona Fall League. I mean, he's stealing tons of bases. He was the leader in hits in the second week of the AFL. So you've got all these guys. Where's the room to press him? I don't think there's room to press him right now. I think they're going to slow roll it a little bit.

So I don't think he's an opening day guy. And unless there's big massive injuries, I'm not sure he's a middle guy. I just don't know where it fits yet. I think 100% it's at some point this year, but I just don't know if it's a commitment like they made with Miranda, because Miranda is locked. Royce, once healthy and back, is locked in my mind. And you've also got a rise in there.

So, like, where? And, you know, they've got Planco's, like, where is the path for him? I just think it's going to be a slower role than people are ready for. But boy, is he impressive. We'll point out, though, almost half of his offensive output came from a game two days ago where he hit two homers, had like five RBI, absolutely killed it in Glendale in a night game, beat up on Reds Christian Roa.

But he's a very, very impressive player. I think he is like just one of the most confident, underspoken players that nobody really knows about. But it's just, I fall in love with these guys are these like crazy, beautiful, not messy swings at just attack the ball. And that's what he does. Scott, it's hard to call any player.

Obviously, look, there's some players that are, roster and dynasty obviously, but every dynasty league is built different, how many prospects are rostered in each dynasty league. Again, it's going to differ from one league to the next. But if Welsh looks at Edward Julian as a potential 10-year vet, then he probably should be rostered in all dynasty leagues. How do you feel about him? Well, I mean, my my perspective on this is kind of skewed because all my dynasty leagues are 24-team dynasty leagues. So he's owned everywhere. Yeah. I don't even know that the Welsh mentioned the most impressive thing about Julian. And that's, he reached base at a 440, 430, or let me make sure I have the right year.

Yeah, 441 clip this year. I mean, it's 434 last year. And so far the fall league, it's 544. Leads the fall league in OBP. Yeah. He is, like if Kevin Eucalus was the Greek god of walks, Edward Julian is the French emperor of walks because that is incredible

and like my assumption when I was first learning about him and seeing that okay why is this guy not getting a lot of buzz he must he must kind of be like a low exit velocity guy whose power isn't really going to translate but came to find out that's not the case like quality of contact is good for Julian So I am, he's somebody I'm pretty fond of too.

I feel like Welsh and I are like propping up the same guys here. Yeah. Well, I mean, it's a good thing. It's a good thing that we're on those similar guys. I have him right around the top 100 prospect. I just think that, you know, the pedigree is there. I think even though he's playing solely second base here, he can move around. And I think that gives him some extra value.

And we'll see. You know, we'll see how it all comes together. But he just, he feels exactly like he, he might end up being like Justin Turner. You know, that might be who he becomes. And everyone's like, oh, what, you know, we're, we're fantasizing on like everything that he could be. Are the stolen base is going to be there?

I don't know. I don't think he's a hyper-aggressive stolen base guy. But he's got a great OVP. He walks about he's walking more than he's striking out. I think he might have near the most walks in the AFL right now. And he's starting to crush balls at 23 years old. So at some point, you're going to see him this year. And it will be fun.

And really no one's going to talk about. bottom except the big prospect heads. Two lower ranked prospects making a name for themselves out in the AFL right now. Jalen Ortiz with the Phillies and Zach Daniels with the Astros. Welsh, you have clips of both of these gentlemen hitting home runs recently. Actually, I think as recently yesterday, right?

Oh, it was this morning. Yeah, it was this morning. Zach Daniels was one of the first. I actually had to leave. I had to leave the park for a second, which gave me anxiety, by the way, because he had to leave when Matt Mervis and Jason Dominguez are coming up. I left my wallet at my house,

so I didn't have my phone either. So I had to go get, I don't know what I was thinking. I had to go and get those. I was a total mess this morning because I got off a stream and went there, got back, sat down, Zach Daniels comes up and absolutely turns on a ball. It was,

it was smoked too. Did you see how far it was hit, by the way, the actual distance? I didn't, but it went to center right field, and I was told it hit a tree. I don't know if it bounced to hit the tree.

We could take a look at it right here. This stuff for Ryan Cusick, who was a former Braves prospect, who's with the A's now. And he absolutely turns on this. And he is a very, very exciting athletic hitter. Boom. And you can see, I'll turn the camera.

It goes into that like left middle field. And I don't know if it actually hit a tree back there, but it had to go over 400 because the dead center is right around 4.410. 481. Oh my God. That's what it was measured. That's what it was measured. 4.81.

Yep. Yeah. He hit a tree. The guy told me, actually, I think you can see the tree that it hit. I didn't realize that. obviously I'm doing a whole lot here but if you go to the video on my Twitter ad is at the Welsh I think it's that left tree

right there that it might have hit because I was told that's what it bonged off of and he turned on it, he's got great speed too. I haven't seen him hit a whole lot but you know what you got to like about that? He had a short path on the swing. It reminded me of Brennan Davis and Jalen Ortiz has been with the Phillies. It feels like forever.

This is a funny video I have because Nick Gonzalez was like right in my way and I want to be like Nick get out of the way. I've seen him at two homers. They look exactly like this with J. Linertis. He pimps them. He's got a huge power approach, very Schwabre-esque in, you know, no, like, boom, just kind of like with the Phillies. It was murdered. And he pimps them and he knows he got them.

The problem is, is he doesn't really recognize off-speed stuff very well. I haven't noticed. So I think there's going to be a big hole in his swing. But, you know, he punishes fastballs. And sometimes I like to keep on the guys as they go through and celebrate. He's a pretty energetic guy. But he definitely, I know you might not quite see it. He's got a better body than he used to.

It was kind of a bigger dude that looked a little bit more rotund, if you will. And it's better than you think it is. And that's just a beautiful mistake pitch that he destroyed. And that's his M.O. But like, am I big on him? No. But he is kind of moving up a little bit. I think I might prefer Zach Daniels for the athleticism and the stolen bases.

Yeah, Zach Daniels, by the way, looking into his numbers, a fourth round pick in 2020. this past season he hit 282 with 23 homers, 22 steals in 95 games at high A. So he's still a ways away right now, but the power speed looks like there might be some hit tool there. And one of the better pitchers. I just want to point out like Ryan Cusick, there's not a lot of great pitching here. Ryan Cusick's one of those guys that's going to bring it in. He's got a repertoire that a lot of other pitchers don't.

So I thought this was pretty impressive for him to take advantage of Cusick. All right. Last week we talked about Connor Thomas and Joey Wentz on the pitching side of things. Another strikeout leader we haven't mentioned yet is Ephraen Contreras from the Padres. Well, do you have anything on Ephron Contreras? Yeah, I will tell you this. It's very funny you bring him up because I hadn't noted anything about him.

I'm doing this goofy thing where I had this big Google sheet. I call it the Arizona Fall League Notebook. It's part of my Patreon. If you want to check it out. And I'll like live update stuff during games that you could check out. And you'll just get my random notes. Ephron Contreras was one of the guys I just noted from Monday. I think it was because dude has a curveball.

Guy has a mid-70s curveball that he was dropping on these guys, which nobody could hit. And I hadn't seen him before. A little bit shorter, a little bit stockier, doesn't feel like a starting pitcher. 100% feels like a middle reliever. I'd point that out to a lot of people, even though the strikeout numbers are really great.

But maybe a guy that can contribute soon, maybe a guy you feel good in the, even the back end of the bullpen, but he's got a nasty curveball that nobody had an answer for. And that is what is getting him, the strikeouts here. Remember, you got a lot of aggressive guys. You've got a lot of fastballs that are going over. A lot of guys that aren't hitting off speed stuff. So when you get a pitcher come in that can a throw a mid-70s curve with a lot of spin, but also command it, he's given guys

fits. I did have a note about him and mark him, but I do think he's a reliever. All right. Last thing I wanted to hit on here, we always talk about the good when it comes to the Arizona Fall League. I know that stats really don't matter much out there, Welsh, but these are five big name prospects. Four of them at least are very big name prospects. Tyler Gentry, he's kind of on the fringes, but they all have a 600 OPS or lower. Does it matter?

I don't really know. But is there maybe one or two of these names that you're actually worried about? Warming Bernabelle with the Rockies. Division de los Santos. I don't know if I'm saying that name right. Apologies of the Diamondbacks. Jason Dominguez with the Yankees,

Matt McLean with the Reds, and Tyler Gentry with the Royals. Any concerns? So, well, one of them, yes. And I'll note, this is what the PA announcers have said. So I'm just going to let you know, but they say warming Bernable. So it's Bernable. So letting everybody know, I've said Burnable the entire time until every PA announcer.

I mean, warming burnable, it just goes together. It feels like it's beautiful. Like he should make that the pronunciation. I totally agree. But every PA announcer goes, and they're not all perfect because I've heard them say Zach Geloff's name three different ways, but it is always warming Bernable. He is my worry. And he put up crazy video game type of numbers in the minor leagues this year.

And we do see that relatively commonly from like lower level Colorado prospects, especially as they move up. I just hate his approach here. It's not like there's a lot of business in his swing, but I don't feel like he knows what's coming. I feel like smarter pitchers are taking advantage of him. The video game numbers don't translate to what I see here. But I acknowledge that plenty of players come here and they're tired and they may, you know,

just kind of fall off. He's a bigger dude, too, that. really question how much the stolen bases are going to be a part of it. I'm not sure I've seen him attempt a stolen base. So I'm a little bit worried about warning Bernable. Matt McLean is the other one that like the batting average is still just stinky. You know, it's just like he just doesn't make the contact that I just don't know if I'm going to, like I had him inside the top 100 because of the big power potential.

But I just don't see him even as maybe like a long term, especially that team that's got like Jonathan India and they've got L.A. the Cruz and Noelvie. I don't see him as a long term. long-term option. So I'm kind of coming off of him. Davidson and Jason are both just young. Jason has showed a lot of good plate presence. He is not squaring up pitches great, which he's driving stuff in either into the ground or, you know, he's just driving homers into singles and doubles. I'm not crazy worried about him. Davidson has looked pretty bad, though. I'm a little bit worried about

that. He's got light tower power. I think it's just way too young for this level. So I'm trying to close my eyes for him, but he is not doing anything good here. So I'm just trying to ignore it. I always talk about all the great prospects I have in the Scott White Dynasty League that I'm excited about. I also have Matt McLean, which, you know, hearing that doesn't make me feel too good about old Maddie boy. Before we wrap up, of course, you know, we typically go a little bit longer on these prospect episodes. Anyone watching on YouTube right now, you can see I'm wearing a shirt that says, What is that? Bat!

Bat? I don't even know. I mean, Batman? I don't know. That looks like a Mario shirt, which looks pretty cool. What is it? This is from the show What We Do The Shadows?

Do either of you watch? No, but I've heard of it. Ah, well, I highly encourage anyone. Of course, if you're trying to get into the Halloween spirit and you like watching vampire-type things this time of year, it is a comedy sitcom filmed in the style of the office, but it's about vampires that live in Staten Island. And it's hilarious.

It's on Hulu. This sounds great. What is it on? It's on YouTube or Hulu? It's on Hulu. Yeah. I might watch it tonight. I might do that.

I do have a new movie came out on HBO Max for all you horror film buffs, Barbarian. And I've heard it is quite good. So that will be my taking in for the next week. Once I can stop watching Hocus Pocus and get the kids to sleep, mommy and daddy are going to get into a more adult horror movie that the kids can't watch. And Barbarian, they'll be on it. And I will check out that for a good life. Since you brought it up, I don't really understand the fervor over Hocus Pocus.

Like I was of the appropriate age when it came out. I remember it was panned by critics. I saw it. I don't understand the affection that so many people have for. It's nostalgia. It's getting a sequel 30 years later. The sequel's awful. We watch it.

They shouldn't have done it. The original is my point. Nah, but we have the nostalgia of the original and stuff like that. Like me and my wife both had that. You think about it. You're like, oh, this would be cool for the kids. And you watch it. And you're like, no, all right.

The sequel did not need to be. made. I don't know why they did. I had this moment where I saw Bet Midler, the first second I saw her, I'm like, wow, she has an age today. And then they got closer to her and I'm like, wow, she's so old. Like, this doesn't work. She's so, you look so much older. I feel horrible, but she looks so much older in this and all of them. Yeah, it doesn't work. We're going to wrap there for Scott and the Welsh. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching a very long edition of Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Tuesday. Bye-bye.