Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 Top Pitching Prospects! Brandon Pfaadt Hype! (12/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 15, 2022

What is a TINSTAAPP (2:35)? ... Will Grayson Rodriguez be up on Opening Day (8:52)? ... Andrew Painter and Eury Perez are massive human beings (14:52). ... Ricky Tiedemann is on the rise (18:20). ... Kyle Harrison has huge strikeout upside but there are questions with the control (23:34). ... Gavin Williams ahead of Daniel Espino (26:08)? ... Taj Bradley has a nice floor while the hype continues to grow on Brandon Pfaadt (31:00). ... News (38:42): Ross Stipling signed with the Giants while Noah Syndergaard signed with the Dodgers. ... We wrap up with pitching prospects to target in redraft leagues (49:40). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Is there such thing as a pitching prospect? Of course there is.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 15th. Frank Stanfield joined by Scott T. Dubbs and Chris the Welts. We're talking all about pitching prospects today, as many as we can get to within an hour. Obviously there's a bunch to talk about, but alas, gents, we are here and we are all Santa had it up. Looking good, looking great, Welsh, you got the, what do you call that part of the hat? Is there a certain name for that part of the hat? I don't know.

It would be the tail of the hat, so there's the big fuzzy white part and then the red thing with the ball. Mine is quite a bit different than your guys is. It's very long. It's about the size of an elephant. If we were doing proportional sizes, this is about an elephant size. You do not look like a Santa Claus. What you look like is like the unkempt elf, right?

I look like the human that was put in elf land. And they're just like, here, take this hat. Like, I don't look like I fit in here, which is ironic and funny in general with this. But yes, I have a very weird Christmas hat and you guys can all enjoy it. I feel like this is almost like a cast. Like people could like write like an autograph it. They could write me nice notes that could go on this hat. Maybe we'll do that for the next show.

We'll have some nice notes. Maybe the nicest iTunes review that we get. I'll write their note in on the hat and we'll wear it for the show. Shout out to the iTunes reviews, by the way. There have been some in there. Very thankful for you being here on the podcast well. So very happy about that. Happy you're here.

I was trying to think of some kind of injury, right? Like, because that's normally like, that's what the cast is for and we're writing on it. But like, I don't know what would have to happen to your head for that to become some kind of cast. But a lot already wrong with my head, Frank. So let's just chalk it up to it's already there. So we're good. Whatever it is, it's my mental version of Tommy John. All right in because there are a lot of names to talk about.

There's a lot of strategy to talk about too. I think when it comes to pitching prospects and how to handle pitching in dynasty. We'll get to all of it. But let's start with the old acronym, which I led the podcast with 10-stap. You might have heard it before. If you play in the fantasy baseball industry, if you play in a dynasty league, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Welsh, for those who don't know, why is this a saying and what does it mean?

Yeah, it's a funny, it's just, it's like a funny anecdotal type of thing in general because people look at pitching and the impossibility of deciphering who can maintain as a starter. It's an enigma in the minor leagues. I mean, you've got guys that can have two or three plus pitches. You've got a guy that just has one good pitch and can plow through the minor leagues. But when you get to the majors, it's a whole new ballgame. Injuries taken out. So, I mean, we can go back And look, Alex Reyes is one that immediately comes to my mind. I loved. He was my number one pitching prospect on the board when he was a minor leaguer.

It looked like he was going to be elite, elite. Injuries take apart. They are more susceptible to Tommy John, take them out. Sometimes Tommy John can end up leading to a guy having to be put in a lesser of a role that they then just stick with. And that's kind of, I mean, I'm kind of going through all the different motions of it. But at the end of the day, unlike, you know, you could look at a first basement and say, well, they can't play anywhere else. So guess what? They're a first basement. Short stops, move around. Positionally, they still stay in that spot.

But the movement from a starting pitcher to a closer, that isn't relative in baseball, except maybe a guy moving from outfield position to util only. That's probably like the best thing I could possibly give you here. So they're just susceptible to injuries and you could be gone for two years on them. So is there a true pitching prospect? I don't know. We all try to define and how we talk about them. Scott, when we look at these guys, it's like, we think this guy can. could be a starter. He's got the recipe to be it if all the things work out properly, very unlike hitting prospects. And I think projection is incredibly tough for all prospects, but even harder for

pitchers, Scott, because we see time and time again, there are pitching prospects who are drafted very early in the MLB draft that don't really amount to anything. And then there's guys that seemingly come out of nowhere. And you could say that for any position, I think, but even more so for pitchers. I just feel like year over year, there's a handful, there's 10, dozens of pitchers that really just come out of nowhere, and they emerge as prospects. So I think that's also part of it, is that projecting pitching prospects is probably the hardest thing that we have to do in this industry. Yeah, I think the main thing, and I think it's becoming increasingly true because the advantages at the major league level are tipping back more in the pitcher's favor. It's good to, I think,

identify certain pitchers who could emerge as difference makers and fantasy, impact players and fantasy. But in terms of who you prioritize over whom, that might be a little overrated. I mean, you brought up to Alex Ray's example. It was just a few years ago. Forrest Whitley was the can't miss pitching prospect, and he still has yet to reach the majors. The fall is pretty big for pitchers sometime. And then on the other end, I mean, who was the hot rookie person?

pitcher last year. It was Spencer Strider, who was on basically nobody's top 100 list coming into the year. I wanted to get him on mine, and I was kicking myself all year that I didn't because I really like Spencer Strider. But it's not like he was a high priority among pitching prospects, and now he looks like, you know, one of the, just in terms of talent, like one of the top five pitchers in the game. And if you go through and look at who the aces are, or who the aces are. around baseball.

I mean, Sandy Alcantara, it's not that he wasn't a prospect, but he was closer to the back end of the top 100. Let's see, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, they were pretty big deals.

Corbyn Burns, Corbyn Burns for most of his minor league career. I mean, it's not like he was a nobody. Prospect gurus knew who he was, but, you know, nobody,

not that many people were profiling him as an ace, you know, projecting him to be that. Let's see, Garrett Cole, obviously is a former number one overall pick. Jacob de Grom completely out of nowhere.

Nobody was on him in the minors. He used to be a short stuff. Yeah, he was a short stuff. I want to feel like Shane McClanahan too. Shane McClan, it actually was really funny about him. He was the prototypical guy.

I remember him coming out of coming out of the draft was, it was like there were a couple, two good pitches, but you really wondered, was he going to be able to maintain innings and was he going to be able to go beyond two pitches? He was that type of guy

where it was like, man, if he's a starter, he could be really good. But there were a lot of questions about how his viability of being a long-term starter is. And he's in that Spencer Strider range right now. So, I mean, that's ultimately a problem with these guys. I also think of, um, Roldus Chapman came to mind as well. Like when he was with the Reds, people remember, he was like the phenom, a phenom pitchers. And they were going to develop him as a starter. But again, even with the best stuff, the best stuff can't sometimes be maintained over multiple

innings and that's where it gets really wonky with these guys. And not to belabor the point here, but Shane Bieber, he was more an interesting minor league pitcher than a huge prospect. Max Fried, when the Braves acquired him along with a bunch of other pitchers when they were rebuilding, it's not like he was the standout pitcher in their minor league system. Frombert Valdez was basically a nobody in the minors. Luis Castillo wasn't that big of a deal when he was in the Marlins system. So it goes on and on and on.

I'm just looking at the names at the top of the pitching rankings now. It's probably at best 50-50. Okay, this guy who is now an ace profiled to be an ace in the minors versus this guy. We may have known about him in the minors, but we didn't really see him becoming an ace. And I think that's a really good illustration, Scott, of this entire idea. There's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Because, again, projection that far out. You don't know what these guys are going to become.

and there's just so much turnover from one year to the next with these pitchers emerging and eventually, you know, potentially turning into Aces, and we didn't really see that coming. So it is pretty hard to do. Let's jump into the top pitching prospects according to the Welsh. We'll start with his top 10 in Dynasty.

And guys, I'm not really a stickler on the let's keep it moving kind of thing, but there's a lot of names that we want to get to. So let's keep it moving. Number one on the list, no surprise here. Grayson Rodriguez from the Baltimore Orioles who had a great season last year, although it was a little abbreviated

because he was dealing with a strained lat, but still fantastic numbers. 2.62 ERA, 0.99 whip. 109 strikeouts over 75 and 2 thirds innings. Looks like he has three plus plus pitches in his fastball, changeup, and slider. I mentioned that this is for Dynasty, but I guess he's just the top pitching prospect

regardless for both Dynasty and Redraft. His early ADP is 196. What do you think of that cost? do you think he's up on opening day? Yeah, I think there's a really, really good opportunity that he's up on opening day. The thing that could take him off of it is the innings. He had 109 the previous year. He went 75 this past year with the injury.

That's why 103 the previous year. I kind of really thought he would get pressed in the AFL. He didn't. So I think the innings could be a problem because that team is also going to look at him and what are they going to cap him at? Like 150 maximum if they want to be really aggressive, maybe around 130. So that could be the thing where maybe they slow roll him and maybe they're not comfortable with it.

But if there's a guy, you know, especially on this dynasty list going through the top 10, outside of the one guy that's already locked into a rotation spot, there's to be the guy. And he's got the stuff. This team obviously wants to make moves. He is a three plus pitcher.

His catcher is there, which I think is such a key. I'm a very big fan of Gracer Rodriguez. And I think it's actually interesting too, because I think the injury that didn't give him that full season, kind of took a little bit of the luster off of how important and how really great he is and how elite. But again, you know, the top guys in their level of working out is pretty difficult.

But that organization does a really, really great job. Like you said, three plus pitches, more in the tank, and a great pitching organization. Grayson's a guy that absolutely can break camp and he's worth risking an early pick on. And Scott, I think if we get confirmation that he will be in the opening day rotation, you're just going to see a rocket ship. This guy's going to move way up draft boards. We did a mock draft last night, and he went at pick 134. Mind you, that is a head-to-head points league.

so pitching does traditionally get pushed up in that format. But that was early to me. He went ahead of names like Jesus Lazzardo, Nick Lidolo, guys who we know are going to be in their opening day rotations. A little bit early in a little earlier than I would take him. He went before Lidolo and Lazzardo? Yeah. The reason he went a little earlier than I would take him

is because, like I said, the needle's tilting more in pitching's favor right now. So there's not, you don't have to sell out that hard for the upside guy. at that range of the draft, because there are a lot of upside guys, ones who've proven more at the major league level. But if we're just talking about Grayson Rodriguez as a prospect, I mean, he's, I've made the comparison to Jose Fernandez throughout his climb in the minors because he just handled every level so easily. His stuff, his fastball especially was so overpowering.

He has a very deep arsenal. He has great control of everything. Like, there's just no flaws here. The one concern, if we're talking dynasty perspective, is he's barely gone over 100 innings once. And of course, he had the shoulder issue, Labrum, right? Last year. It was a lat.

It was a lat. Lat. Sorry, lat. And so, you know, we haven't seen that Grayson Rodriguez can hold up over a major league workload, but he's got the perfect build for it, you know, big. I don't think in the long run it'll be an issue. to the degree that you can predict such things with minor league pitchers.

And yeah, it's just very exciting. And I, like, I'd be shocked if he didn't make the opening day roster for the... But what are they going to do with this end? So in your mind? Well, how are they going to... I mean, he's never had 104 innings in a season and the minor's coming off of an injury. Do you think they would press him?

Like, 175? I think they'll skip him at times. The way teams have been managing young pitchers' innings all over the league, I probably could get to around 140 if he stays healthy. And, you know, they skip turns here and there. But he would have been up around the same time as Adley Rushman last year, if not for that lat injury. And obviously all the incentives are for top prospects

to make the opening day rosters now for the draft picks and whatnot. So, yeah. My only argument to that is twofold. Gunner Henderson qualifies them for that. they do not need him for that. Second off, if there is a position that you want to have the most control over, it's pitching. And if they hold them over to what, late April or something like that with your super twos,

you're getting a little bit more control that I would just argue that I would treat him similar to how we look at some of those prospects in the bad years where they might not break opening camp, but you're going to get them within the first month as soon as that manipulation date, like let's not joke about it, as soon as they can manipulate him perfectly. he is up because then what that does, they slow roll him in the minors. They don't need him to break camp to get that potential Rookie of the Year award extra pick thing,

and they can control him for a little bit longer, and then he still helps the team. That would be my only side point to that, which I would monitor. With the Henderson point, like that's one shot at securing a draft pick, and Grace and Rodriguez would give them another shot. That's a great point.

Only one person's going to actually... Look at the Braves. Look at the Braves. They have the number one end. in voting in the NL in Strider and Michael Harris. It's a great, you could look at that and put that to the Orioles. Good point. Yeah, so I think that is fair.

That gives them another opportunity. If they want to go down that route, for what it's worth, Steamer has Grayson Rodriguez projected for 129 innings this upcoming season. And look, I think if the Orioles are not competing in the second half, they could probably shut him down at some point. You know, the hope is that they're getting better. So maybe they are competing for a wild card spot or something like that. But that remains to be seen.

Number two and four, I'm going to skip three for now because number two and four are similar, not necessarily in terms of numbers and stuff, but in terms of appearance and size, Andrew Painter of the Phillies and Yuri Perez of the Marlins, they are both massive human beings. Painter is 6'7, Yuri Perez 6'8, they're both 19 years old,

painter just coming off a ridiculous season. I don't know how else to describe it, 156 ERA, 0.89 whip, 155 strikeouts over 103 and two-thirds innings. Uri Perez, the number is not nearly as gaudy, but known for having ridiculous stuff, a blazing fastball, a really good change-up as well. Welsh, give me your thoughts on both of these guys, two really big dudes.

Painter, I've heard only 19 years old, but I've heard some whispers that he could be up as soon as this season. What do you think about those two? Yeah, I mean, that is something that is looming out there. He was the most phenomenal pitcher in the minor leagues this past year, and he's a big physical body.

It's actually very interesting and weird that you've got these like comps across these two players that are both just like enormous in size. He's already got a great arsenal. It's a plus plus fastball. There's a great curveball in there. It's probably maybe not plus plus curveball, but a plus fastball.

There's a really solid change up. He commanded across the board. Had a 156 ERA and 22 innings. Already pushed 103 innings this year, which is his second year coming off of six innings pitch last year, which is the most that Grayson Rodriguez has ever put up, walked only 25 in 103 innings. I mean, he checked every single box you could possibly want,

and he got up to AA and he put five innings on there. So he's not an early opportunity, but he's definitely a mid-season guy that's going to come up. And we were doing this draft with our mutual friend, Eric Cross, and there was someone that really freaked out because Andrew Painter went above Yuri Perez, and they just had this panic attack about it. Like, oh, this isn't blah, blah, blah.

You don't understand in the prospect community that Yuri Perez is great and fun and all and had a similar trajectory, but Andrew Painter is seen easily as a number two pitcher in many eyes, with some as number one. So this is like a big clump in a tier. So I'm an Andrew Painter guy over Yuri Perez, as you said, I have him at two. Yuri Perez, I have at four.

He had a similar path, not quite as the same results. Fastball change up guy. He's working with Sandy Al Contra right now. He's staying with Sandy Al Contra, I believe, in the same training facility working with him. That's got to have wonders on that change up. Secondary is still going. I think he's going to have a little bit of a bumpier path. And I think you're at least looking at a six-month separation between those two,

if not a full season, because I think Andrew Painter is going to be fast track, especially with what the Phillies are doing. I think pound for pound, no joke aside, between size and weight and how he is, this is the guy. I think there's an argument that he is 1A1B with Grayson Rodriguez. Grayson is just going to pitch this year. He also has the advantage on the catcher, which I really like.

But these are, and his pitches are a little bit on the stronger play. but you're just talking to tick down on Andrew Painter. So scouts abound love this kid. And many people that we know, some people over Baseball America, kind of retorted this. Yuri Perez has to be the number two for all pitchers saying, no, man, this is Painter. And a lot of people are in on Painter as an almost consensus top two minor league SP.

So if you're in a Dynasty League and you got, you know, people and players in your league that are not valuing Andrew Painter as a top five guy, go and take advantage and swoop him up right now. All right. Number three on this list is a pitcher from the Blue Jays organization. Ricky Tiedeman, who was a massive riser last season. First lefty that we see on this list, 2.17 ERA, a 0.86 whip. 117 strikeouts over 78 and two-thirds innings last season.

He's got the fastball slider change-up mix. Scott, have people caught on to how good Ricky Tideman was last year and how highly he ranks on prospect lists at this point? You know, I guess it depends who the people. This is about the highest I've seen him, having him, the Welsh has him slotted ahead of Yuri Perez. And, you know, I don't know that I do that with them. I think the clear top three at starting pitcher,

having already said that you shouldn't go that far in prioritizing one pitching prospect over another. Having said that, I think the clear top three are Grayson Rodriguez, Andrew Painter and Yuri Perez. And, you know, Tiedemann had a great season like Painter and Perez, he got pretty high up the minor league ladder at a very young age. Was he up at AA as a 19 year old also? He did hit AA.

Yeah, he pitched four games in AA this year. Yep. And he has the advantage of being a left-hander. So, you know, he has that going for him too. He's good. He's good. He's a tier below the others for me. I have anecdotal thing that's funny about him.

I was sitting with, I think I can say this is like his former agent. I was actually at a dinner and I remember we were actually talking about other people, two other prospects I won't name. And he asked about Ricky Teateman at that time. And I mentioned where I have him and he was just like, you have him too low. You have him far too low. And I was like, really? I'm like, oh, okay, and look more into it.

And then as you see him go, and by the way, I got killed by some dude on this for our short we did, Frank. because my brain just goes a mile. And I think I said on our short, we did the five and five, I said something along the lines. I'm like, yeah, Ricky Teeteman, like the left-handed version of Shane McClain. They're the same. And I stupidly my brain did that. But, I mean, Teeteman in so many ways in his approach,

his command reminds me of McClanahan. There's an overpowerness that exists, but I don't think he's quite the power pitcher that you see out of even Grayson, Rayson, Robert, Gregory gets in touch 100. Andrew Painter is a big physical presence. Tidaman is not necessarily that, though. He's 6'4-200, but there is a lot of movement. There is a big slider that's in there,

kind of different than the path we've talked about with these other guys. You see a big curveball with Painter, and you're looking at changeups as well. I think Tidman's overall approach and the way he pounds the zone and the way that slider bites is advanced. And I think I personally like it over Yuri, but I get it. I get where people are.

In my mind, your three is a four clear tier, and then it goes to the next one. And Tideman belongs in there. So, again, if Tideman is not valued as a top five starting pitcher, that is someone I would go acquire. And I took him in one of the drafts that we did, one of the rookie drafts, either mine or Eric Crosses. I do like Tideman more than Kyle Harrison, as you have here. And I don't think that's the consensus view either. But yeah, one of the other areas where Tideman maybe lags behind Uri Perez and Andrew Paineer for me, and you mentioned just how big those two right-handers are

and the physicality there. But control. Not that Teetaman has bad control, but part of what stands out with Painter and Perez is just for how awesome their stuff is, their control might stand out even more. As a 19-year-old at AA, Yuri Perez had a 10-start stretch with a 198 ERA.

He threw 70% of his pitches for strikes during that 10-start stretch. Had a 19% swinging strike rate. And just to put that in perspective, like a good strike percentage, you know, 65% to 67%. That's good. A bad one would be low 60%, like 61, 62%.

And he's up here 70% of his pitches for strikes. Similarly, Andrew Painter, his final 12 starts last year. Again, as a 19-year-old at AA, he threw 71% of his pitches for strikes, had 82 strikeouts versus six walks in those final 12 starts. So I'm with you like on Painter. Painter is right after Grayson Rodriguez for me,

but then Yuri Perez is right after him. And I have them next to each other in my overall. But see, that's just my difference in view. If someone values Yuri Perez, I don't mind. I really don't mind that because they are 1A, 1B type of talents, all of these guys. It's just my view on Teeteman is he belongs on the conversation where I think there's more of a consensus view of what you're talking about

that most don't have them. Most have them in that next tier with Kyle Harrison and maybe a few others. Speaking of that control real quick on Andrew Painter, his walks per 9 at each level last season, 3.72, 1.72, 0.64.

So just improving at every single level exactly what you want to see from Andrew Painter. Speaking of control, I think it's a good transition to Kyle Harrison, who is another lefty here. Fantastic numbers,

ridiculous strikeout rate. 186 strikeouts last season. in 113 innings pitched. Did get 18 starts in at AA. So maybe there's a chance we see him in the second half of the season here for the San Francisco Giants. But the drawback here, Welsh,

is that he probably, I'm not going to say probably. He does have the worst control of all the pitchers we've mentioned so far. Yeah, you're 100% right. He's a big predominant fastball slider guy. This is probably the big plus slider of all. I mean,

I think it's rated a little bit higher his slider than T-D-M. but I mean, this is where he's getting his strikeouts on. He had the second most strikeouts in all the minor leagues this past year. And it was, I think it was 100, yeah, it was 186 compared to a guy we're going to talk about in a little bit with over 200. And I believe, I'm trying to pull this up here. I think, yeah, yeah, yeah, the highest K per nine of any qualified pitcher in the minor

leagues, 39.8K percentage, which was two points higher than the next person. The problem they're talking about is he had an over 10 walk percentage. It was 10.5. Yet, the only thing I would point out about him, regardless of the command, this is very Dylan Sees-esque to me, because Dylan Sees lives in a world of big fastball, big slider. He still has the highest K-minus walk percentage, regardless of having the 10% walk rate.

And just for reference, if you're sorting it, you can take a look at this on Fangrass. The top 13 pitchers in K-minus walk percentage, And that's a valuable stat just because it shows you the value of their strikeouts minus their walk. And it kind of shows you like it shows you a true rate. Every single one of those guys, the next 12, all have a sub 10% walk percentage. Yet he has an over 10 and he is still the leader in K minus walk percentage by two points. I mean, he is an elite strikeout option that does have some control issues.

And again, I kind of liken it back to Dylan Cs-esque where it's two 60 plus graded pitches in a fastball. and a slider that he's one of those guys that you look at. And you're like, all right, we got to make sure that we've got some other pitches that are going to work. We got to make sure the command with a third pitch, a changeup or something is going to continue to develop. Or you get into a dicey area where regardless of how great two plus pitches are, if you can't maintain it and you fall apart in later innings, it's something you have to worry about. But Kyle Harrison had a ridiculous season regardless of his almost four walks per nine. All right.

I want to keep it moving here. and talk about two Cleveland prospects, Gavin Williams and Daniel Espino. Gavin Williams, another one, massive pitcher, six foot six, former first round pick in 2021, and then he had an insane minor league season last year, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 whip, 149 strikeouts, over 115 innings pitched. Daniel Espino, I know a lot of people really like him, especially going into last year. He dealt with some injuries. He only made four starts.

first dealt with Pateller tendonitis in his knee and then later got shut down with a sore right shoulder. Scotty, I'm going to throw both of these names your way. Lots of strikeouts, lots to like. But it feels like maybe Gavin Williams has now surpassed Daniel Espino. What do you think?

Yeah, I mean, I just from the perspective of, okay, we saw Daniel Espino make only four starts last year. So, you know, he's six foot one. He's throwing triple digits. How well is his arm going to hold up? I think just from that perspective, you could make the case for Gavin Williams over him. They're in the same tier for me.

They have electric arsenals, a lot of strikeout ability. I mean, I don't want to sell... I don't want to sell Espino short in this regard, because in those four starts he made, in his very first taste of AA, 17.2K per 9 is what he had in those four starts. Previous year, 14.9K per 9. I mean, this is a big-time bat misser.

whose main issue is, yeah, just how well is that arm going to hold up? Gavin Williams, another guy who hits triple digits. And, you know, he was kind of on the fringes for Dynasty leagues last year. This is a pretty interesting prospect. You know, the Guardian's organization is good at developing pitchers. And then it went about as well as it possibly could go. And it's put Gavin Williams up in this territory with Espino. So, you know, it's, I think it's nitpicking choosing between them.

But Espino probably probably has the higher ceiling, but probably has the lower floor, too, I would say. Welsh, Gavin Williams got 16 starts in at AA. Do you think there's a chance we see him this year? And how worried are you about Espino's health? No, I do not. I do not think we're going to see him this year. I mean, this was his first professional season. I actually just saw him pitch at, I think it was Instructs,

this past year. He didn't look great. He was still developing the curve. I mean, it was instructs of last year. Yeah, that's what it was. He was instructs of last year before this main full season. And he was still really developing that curve, which obviously went really great. But no, I don't think the, the Guardians have any reason to press him. You got a Spino in the organization. Guys like Cody Morris end up working out there. I don't think, I think this is one you marinate on. I think the Guardians in general, the Guardians low-key might have a little bit of raise in them. I know they've pushed up, like Tyler Freeman got an opportunity and stuff like that. But I think there's a little.

bit of like marinating of prospect. So I don't believe Gavin Williams is an option. But I agree. Scott said it perfectly. The upside and the high ceiling play is Daniel Espino, but his floor is not what Gavin Williams is. Espino, my thing is like, it's almost Grayson Rodriguez like because it's like three plus pitches. He's a big power pitcher. I love the kid too.

I remember seeing him in rookie ball and talking with him. And he's just a great guy who puts up 100 mile an hour EVs, but or velocity on the fastball. But one of the things you have to look at. is if there's going to be kind of like guys like Alec Trace, if there is going to be continued injuries that are going to follow him, they're going to have to minimize it. We've seen this a gilillion times over. Makes me think Anderson Espinoza just resigned with the Padres, by the way.

And that was one of those guys. It was like number one pitching prospect, Arm just kept falling apart. Espino had some stuff before he was drafted. He had some stuff after he got drafted, missed the majority of last season. If that extends, this is one of those guys that you'll have to look and just say, hey, listen, he's not going to be able to hold up five or six inning.

So how can we maintain this? And that would be, you know, electrifying back into a bullpen. I'm not saying that'll happen because I like Espino. If I'm playing the ceiling play, I'm 1,000 times overtaking him. It's just there's a lot of questions coming off of this injury. But I think he's a really fun bet because he's cheaper right now, people kind of forgetting about him. And had he played a full season and been 90% of what he was and leading up to it, I think we would be talking about him as the number two overall starting pitcher on this sport.

He would be up there with Andrew Painter for sure. Yeah, I was just going to say, I think he would be part, of that top tier that you included with Painter and Yuri Perez and Tiedemann. I think he would be in that group as well. Again, that's Daniel Espino of the Guardians if he was healthy last year. The strikeout upside, again, I just want to emphasize this. It is massive. 221 strikeouts over 133 and 2 thirds minor league endings.

A huge upside there for Daniel Espino. Number eight on this list is Hunter Brown. We'll get to him a little bit later on when we talk about pitching prospects for redraft leagues. The last two names on this list, 9 and 10. we've got Taj Bradley of the Tampa Bay Rays does it a little bit differently than other prospects we've talked about fastball cutter combo which is maybe why we don't see gaudy strikeout

strikeout numbers from him he doesn't or at least I haven't read into it too much I don't know that he has that that wipeout slider or change up that's going to get whiffs but the fastball cutter is a very very useful combination for him and then Brandon Fatt who is gaining steam right now I heard people talk about him at first pitch Arizona and now I'm in a slow

draft at the NFBC and he went in round 22 and I think that there's a lot of steam coming with Brandon Fatt. So, Welsh, talk to me about both of these guys. Tage Bradley with Tampa Bay, Brandon Fatt with your Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah, I mean, just real quick on Tage Bradley. I'm just a big fan. This is a guy that I think can be deceptive in his delivery, can punch the ball in the zone 2570 R this past year. Pretty good strikeouts. 131 inning, still 141 strikeouts. If he fully develops. I think this is a guy that could go the other direction if a team decided to it. They don't press him. But I just think he pumps the zone really well. I'm a fan. But Brandon Fatt, this is a big one because you're hearing us talk about him right now. It's because

I have him as a top 10 SP. And I just talked about this on my show Prospect 1 that I had said he is one of the biggest breakout guys as far as in the offseason of looking at that I think he deserves to be a lot higher. And I've got him, I think, at number nine on my list here of overall minor League starting pitchers. And some notes I had talked about on Prospect One, just to kind of give you guys some context. This far as who the pitcher he is, there's a lot of movement inside. He can sink. He can ride the fastball, mid-90s slider. And the slider really bites. There's a change up in there. But what I find really interesting about him overall is like this big, big step up because he led minor league baseball in strikeouts. 218. No other player did this. Here's some other crazy

markers, 30% K percentage. He had a 25.9 walk minus K percentage because he only had a 4.1 walk percentage. He had a 1.78 walk per 9 and an 11.75K per 9. I want to mind you, this also went to the PCL. I mean, he's going up into the PCL, which that, you want to talk about a guy that did this before? I want to give you a stat related to that. Okay.

So PCL, and maybe I'm stealing your stat here. I don't know. Nope. So we saw Ryan Nelson come up late last year for the Diamondbacks, right? We saw Drey Jameson come up late. Both of them pitched very well in the little bit we solved them. Ryan Nelson for AAA Reno of the PCL had a 543 ERA at that level. Drey Jameson had a 695 ERA at that level.

Meanwhile, Brandon Fatt, the one of those three who we didn't see last year, had a 263 ERA at AAA Arena. This is also coming off of a AA where he had a 453 ERA in the Texas League. So it's unheard of the idea of improving from the Texas League to the California. You know who the last, or the PCL, you know the last person I think of that did this? I know. I know.

Zach Gallin. Zach Gallin. That's exactly right. Zach Gallin put up absurd, absurd AAA numbers in the PCL when he got traded over that we're like, Oh my God. And Zach Gellon at that time was fun, but didn't have this overpowering stuff that we were all buying into.

But then he comes in and he dominates the PCO. The last time I back's pitcher. I remember doing this. This guy doesn't walk, led minor leagues in strikeouts and has a good three-pitch arsenal. His problem, he gives up the home run at an alarming rate. That has got to be worked out. The home runs are something he's going to have to work through.

Because he's pitching in the PCL. Yeah. No, I mean, the PCL is definitely part of it, but he hit 19 homers. He gave up, he gave up 28 homers this past year. 19 came from AA. So it's not just the PCL. The PCL obviously played a role in it. But AA is a really tough place in the diamond back system to pitch.

It is. But think of that. Think of the only thing you're picking a part of this player who's got a, you know, great movement on three plus pitches, who led the minor leases strikeouts, is not walking, pumping the strike zone. What's the big knock? Home runs. We can deal with that. We can absolutely get through that.

That's why Brandon Fat is on a rocket ship up. He's also 24 years old. He should get some run very early. I think there's an opportunity, honestly, the Diamondbacks with how they've gone, they might want to take a look and just go baby back. Because they're not making any of these moves that they had told it. They're, oh, we're into Xander Bogarts and whatever.

Go Nelson. Go, Drey Jameson, go Brandon Fat, and just pair them with, if you got to pair them with Baumgartner, whatever, I'd rather Baumgartner go. But then get Merrill Kelly in there and Zach Allen and figure it out. But Brandon Fat is a guy that everyone, should be in on right now because it's absurd what he's done. Yeah, I'm with you.

You're going to have company here ranking fat this high. I know it's not the consensus view, but I'm just now putting together my pitcher prospect rankings. It's the last position I have to do that for. And I'm thinking the same thing. Like after, you know, there's five or six pitching prospects that belong at the top. But right after that, I'm thinking that's the range Brandon Fat belongs in. And by the way, because if you're trying to guess at the spelling of his name, you're never going to get it.

That's never in it. You look at his name and you have a panic attack. You're like, what? Go ahead. P-F-A-A-D-T. There you go up. And I can relate to what you just said, Welsh, because my in-laws are polars. So I've seen some fun names trying to sound them out.

It's pretty tough. But yeah, again, that is a spelling on Brandon Fatt. And a name you're going to need to know early on in redraft leagues. obviously should know already for Dynasty. Real quick, Welsh, how do you rank all three of the Diamondbacks pitching prospects, Drey Jameson, Brandon Fat, Ryan Nelson from both a dynasty and a redraft perspective?

Okay, so yeah, those are different. Dynasty, it is Brandon Fat in his own world. And then I would go, the next tier is Drey Jameson and Ryan Nelson. From a redraft perspective, I'm going to go Drey Jameson because I feel way more assured, but then I'm going to go Brandon.

fat and then Ryan Nelson. I like Ryan Nelson. He's the guy I talked to. He was very nice to me in spring training. I actually, I felt bad because I talked his head off about Davidson de la Santos and not him. And he was so nice and he was really smart by the way, because I had a couple other pitchers that just got goofy about De LaSantos, but Ryan Nelson was really talking to me about pitching. And I think he's really smart guy. I think he's solid. It's just I don't know if he's, I think he's like a number four, number five pitcher where I think Jay J. Jemison has the ability to be a back in closer or if it works, He could be a number three type of pitcher with good strikeouts. But Brandon Fats, a guy I think that can lead a rotation could be Aaron Nola-esque.

I really think we can get in that direction. Nice. All right. I'm going to have to dust off my old Arizona Diamondbacks hat here. There are some fun times coming with Corby and Carol and they got all the hitters coming and Jordan Lawler and Drew Jones. And, you know, that's further down the line. All the pitching prospects, it is a fun time to be an Arizona Diamondbacks fan. Let's take a quick break before we do that. Just a reminder that if you haven't already, follow.

us on TikTok. We've got some new short form videos coming out, one minute or less, talking about all different kinds of things. Just put one out today, Carlos Correa or Zander Bogarts, a conversation Scott and I had last night when we did the emergency podcast on Carlos Correa. By the way, if you haven't listened to it, go check it out. But yes, we have new short form content. Follow us on TikTok at FBT Pod. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. All right, before we get back into the pitching prospects, we do have some news and notes to go over real quick. signed a two-year $25 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, and it was a really strong bounce back year for him.

301 ERA, a 102 whip with the Blue Jays, and he leaned into his change-up last year, throwing a career high 27% of the time. Really good pitch for him. 20-203 batting average against, 34% whiff rate, and all the underlying numbers were also really, really good for Ross Stripling. Scott, I mentioned I'm doing a slow draft right now.

I took him in round 21, as my SP6, this is a 15-team league, and I took him ahead of Kentsa Maida, Brian Beaux, and Eduardo Rodriguez. What do you think about the value now for Ross Tripling? Do you know about what pitcher he was off the board overall in that draft? No idea. It would take a long time.

The last time the Welsh was on, we were talking about like Taiwan Walker signing and Jose Kentana signing. That's sort of the same range I have Ross Stripling in. not much you wouldn't you couldn't ask for a much better landing spot than San Francisco obviously it's Pinterest Park which is not something he's gotten to enjoy before

and yeah the ERA and WIP were great last year the strikeout rate we've seen it be a lot better from him previously and maybe that's something the Giants since they've had good success with reclamation projects in recent years maybe that's something they can bring out of Ross stripling again and there's another level he can get back to. But I'm not going to invest in that idea.

I think, you know, is kind of a stable ratio's back end guy. That's how I see Ross Stripling. I think he's perfect for deeper league. Something like this, again, SP6 and a 15 teamer where I think it'll just give you quality endings. He's a higher floor play. I don't think he has crazy upside or anything. But again, Ross Stripling with the San Francisco Giants, I do like it quite a bit. Noah Cindergarde signed with the Dodgers, the D. details of that contract have not come out yet, or at least when I was making this run down, they didn't come out yet. I don't think they're still out.

So weird. Yeah, it is very weird. Not the same pitcher that we have seen in the past. He had a 3.94 ERA 125 whip in his return from Tommy John surgery this past season. 6.4K per 9. That is really underwhelming. Fastball velocity down below 94 miles per hour. The last time we saw him in a full season in 2019, that was around 98 miles per hour.

So a huge, huge drop. for Noah Cindergarde. However, Welsh, if there is any team that could fix a pitcher, as we just saw with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. So what do you think about Cindergarde to L.A.? I mean, it's hard to not, I don't know, be romantic about baseball with the thought of a guy like Noah Cinegarde and who he was going to the team that literally, I mean, they are literally witch doctors of pitchers. They revive them. I mean, the Walking Dead are the pitchers that come out of there and new careers are given.

So why would Noah's Cinegard be any different? I mean, you know, when you look at last year, too, you see some significant difference from year on over, at least identified on baseball savant. It shows kind of more of a priority on a sinker in a fastball, a forcing fastball that just absolutely dropped from a usage of 42% down to 20%, I think it is or no, I'm sorry, that's a changeup. It was 30% down to 14% and a changeup that just kind of cut.

tank down for throwing more of a slider. So I imagine the team, their analytical team, are going to take a look. They're going to fine and hone this down a little bit. Like, guess what? The most horrific results and one of the biggest correlations to him, there's three of them. Change up gone, four seam gone for the most part.

And a way, way uptick sinker that did not have good results. They're going to fix it. They're going to simplify it, I believe. And I don't, I hate to do it. I'm going to do it. I'm totally going to buy in on late late drafts because we have, the test case upon test case. I mean, look at Tyler Anderson right now. So, yeah, I think I'll probably buy into it. And I'm hopeful that the stuff isn't gone. And really, it doesn't look

like it's completely gone. I mean, you still throw in relatively fast. So it is a tick slower. Relative to the league, he throws hard, relative to himself. Like, he lost about four miles per hour on his fastball. I mean, he wasn't very good last year, but it's amazing he was as good as he was, losing four miles per hour on his fastball. And, you know, the success the Dodgers have had with pitchers like Heaney and, and Tyler Anderson. Tyler Anderson, thank you. Like introducing just like this incredible off-speed pitch for each of them that allowed

them to take off. So I don't know. I don't know. So it's one year 13 million. Those are the terms of the Cinder Guard deal. And apparently he turned down longer deals from a. other teams because he wanted to be with the Dodgers because he knows their reputation. He wants to get paid.

It sounds like he's a willing participant and being fixed. Yeah, this is like a Bellinger type thing where it's like one year, prove it type of deal, go hit a good ballpark, he gets to go with an organization that gets to, I have to imagine it's just simplifying what he's doing on the mound. And like you said, maybe it's just changing up the pitch mix. Yeah. So is it, so are you taking him over like the stripling, Kintana, that kind of boring, but yeah I think I would I really think I would and it's it's kind of gimmicky and I understand that it's gimmicky but I don't know like Alex Wood Tyler Anderson Tony Gonsla I mean it's just the list goes on and you can see some anomaly massive massive like he goes to baseball savant page and it is just arrows crossing over arrows it looks like one of those wacko crime scene things where it's just string going to hear and hear who's the villain who's the bag of it that's what his baseball savant page looks like right.

now. And it's just the Dodgers have the track record. So I'll probably buy in a little bit. And yeah, I mean, also you got, you know, drive as someone in the chat point out drive lines here, that's a great place to go. So yeah, I'm probably going to be a buy-in relative to where he is, of course, and who's around. And the Dodgers do have some history with drive-line. I know Kirchall went there, got his velocity back up a little bit. Kenley Jansen did the same thing. So if they can get Cinderguard, even back up a tick to like 95 miles per hour and figure out a slider, would not surprise me one bit if they can get him back on track. Obviously not the Noah Center Guard of old.

A few other news items here. Michael Lorenzen signed a one year $8.5 million deal with the Tigers. And don't laugh. This is the Tigers projected pitching staff as of now. Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning,

and Spencer Turnbull with Casey Meis and Terrick Scoobal on the IEL to start. So not great there. And it gets a little bit worse. The Royals have signed Ryan Yarbrough to a one year $3 million deal. Their current rotation.

Brady Singer. Daniel Lynch, Ryan Yarbrough, Brad Keller, and Chris Bubich. Who's worse? Which one? Which one would you take? If you had to take one of those rotations, Tigers, current rotation or Royals? I'm taking the Tigers. The current state of the Tigers like exemplifies. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect, right? True.

Because their rotation should have been a strength by now. Yeah. And remember that college draft? It was just, it was co-art. It was singer. It was, I'm forgetting. Well, you're talking about the Royals now. Or the Royals.

I'm sorry, I meant the Royals. But yeah, it was singer co-ar. I mean, sort of the same thing. They took four pitchers in the first round. Boobich was one of them. Boobich. Yeah, with the Tigers, Matt Manning, Terek Scoubel,

Casey Mai is a former number one overall pick. And the only, like, Scoobles kind of developed into something. But then, of course, he had, it was Tommy John, right, that he's having? I don't think it was Tommy John. It might have been the modified one where he's going to be back sooner or something like that. But. I believe it is. I believe there's a possibility still for this year.

The Guardians have agreed to a one year $6 million deal with catcher Mike Zanino, who missed the majority of last season after undergoing thoracid outlet surgery in late July. He is one year removed from a 33 homer season, albeit with a 216 batting average. Welsh, how much does this affect? Sorry, flex or tendon surgery for scuba. And Casey Meis is the one having Tommy John. Ah, yes, yes, that is great. Um, well, so I was going to ask you how this Mike Zanino signing might affect Bo Nailers playing time moving forward because he was a catcher prospect that, you know, we had some interest in for next season.

Yeah, I mean, I think it definitely does. It's something that's always been in the back of my mind with Bo Nailers. He's just not going to be a catcher. And I don't know if the team back in rookie ball, he was working in the outfield, a very utility type of player. So he's played in the outfield, at least in Rookie Ball. I don't remember what it's gone throughout the minor leagues that I don't know.

I got to be honest with you, this might kind of speak to it. And also look at guys like Varsho. Like, you don't need that. If the team, the team does not going to trust, he has a big way to put it. The team would not trust Bo Nailer,

coming in and being the guy in the first season. There's no way. The Diamondbacks didn't do it. So this is an opportunity for them to have the guy that helps them now. And they will probably move a guy like Bow Naler to play some there, just similar to Varshow, goes some in the outfield, maybe you're de-hing a little bit. He's got some versatility and you kind of slow roll him into the catcher role. For fantasy, you just hope that, you know, if he were to play a decent amount of the season, it doesn't come off.

Your worst nightmare is he comes up for 30 games and 20 of those are in the outfield. he doesn't get enough catcher eligibility. Then the next season, you don't have catcher eligibility. And that's kind of your nightmare for what they do. But I would treat it. He's not like Dalton Varshow, but I would treat it in that same world. Yeah, I don't think he has the same kind of upside as the Varshow. But I do think positionally what you're saying makes sense is that they can maybe play

Bonehler in the outfield a little bit, secondary catcher. And we're seeing more of that in baseball now. MJ Melendez comes to mind. He's been playing the outfield and secondary catcher for the Royals. The Blue Jays have three good catchers that are good hitters as well. so we're seeing quite a few of these catchers come up. Harry Ford in a couple of years, too, could happen with him as well.

So it's an interesting time for catcher prospects. Owen Miller was traded from the Guardians to the Brewers in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. Not both, though. The Dodgers acquired reliever J.P. Fire Eisen from the raise in exchange for minor league reliever, Jeff Belch, and only a few big names left on the market.

And the always reliable Bob Nightingale reported the Cubs, Twins, Red Tides, Dodgers and Braves are all in play for Danesby Swanson. The other marquee free agent left is Carlos Rodon. John Heyman reports that there is a sizable gap between Rodon and the Yankees. I've also seen the Cardinals and twins rumored to be in on Carlos Rodon. Let's get back into some pitching prospects here. Names that we need to know for redraft.

Number one, no surprise, Grayson Rodriguez. We spoke about him already. Hunter Brown is next up. He was number eight on the Welsh's top pitching prospects, Overall for Dynasty Leagues, he's number two on this list. And Scott, I'll come to you first here. Hunter Brown came up last year for a little bit. He flashed for the Astros.

I think there's a lot of upside there. If anyone remembers, this is the kid who idolized Justin Verlander. Then they were pitching in the same rotation. They basically have the same delivery, same motion, everything going on, the same. I think there's a lot to like here, Scott, with Hunter Brown. I just kind of worry about where the endings are going to come from. Is he going to be in the rotation for the Astros this year? But then again, I had those concerns about Christian Javier last offseason 2,

and it didn't really matter. So what do you think about Hunter Brown? Yeah, I'm not sure where he's going to be opening day, Major League rotation, minor league rotation, major league bullpen. I think all of those are in play. They do have a clear starting five without him. More and more we see teams go to six-man rotations at times, and that could be in play.

point, obviously any of those five currently in the rotation could get hurt. So Hunter Brown will at some point certainly be a factor. And, you know, he really impressed when he got called up. And I kind of, it kind of took me by surprise because remember when it happened, I compared him to Ryan Pepio, who had been called up earlier. Like really, really, really good stuff, but the control, very suspect, and that certainly played out for Pepio during his couple stints with the Dodgers. But it didn't it for Brown. He came up thrown strikes. He threw, you know, I said a good strike percentage is 65, 66%. He threw a 367% clip after getting called up. It was only like 63, 62% in the minor. So I don't know what clicked for him, but

the thing that needed to click immediately did. Small sample, of course, but it's the kind of thing that normalizes quicker than others. And I'm pretty encouraged. I'll also have relief pitcher eligibility if you plan ahead to head points leagues. Also throw out the reason to care. The Brandon Fat stuff, you did this in the PCL.

Hunter Brown did PCL numbers of a 255, VRA, 134 strikeouts. His walks were a little bit heavier than Brandon Fat. There also was, we don't throw this out here. It looks like it might be, dead, but there were some pretty heavy rumors about the Astros and the Diamondbacks talking about guys we've talked about, Dalton Varshow. And the conversation is pretty centered around Hunter Brown.

And I don't know if the Astros, that might have been the deal breaker overall in the conversations. There was, there was like a two-day marker where a lot of the Astros reporters online were talking about, hey, they're talking. They're talking. It's a big return. And then just yesterday, one of the reporters was like, I don't think this is going to happen because I think the Diamondbacks are asking for plus a Hunter Brown plus. But just throwing this out there that if it were to end up working and the Astros were to consolidate, that maybe Hunter Brown could even be on the market. Because you pointed out, they got five guys. They got their five starting pitchers. They've got some control on them. It's tough to trade young controllable pitchers that you think really highly of. But if you can, I mean,

a guy like Dalton Vars show would make all the sense in the world, especially with an Astros team, who missed out in a couple different spots and the versatility that he would provide. But Honor Brown is a phenomenal pitcher, great mix, kind of a power pitcher with good strikeouts. The baby Verlander stuff is out there. And I think they need to find a way early to get him some work. And they've also played around with some of these other guys being in the bullpen. So you never know what this team will decide.

We'll learn a lot more and maybe have to move down a little bit on redraft list, a tiny bit based on what happens in spring training. But that'll tell us, but either way he belongs on the top five. I've heard some whispers about Luis Garcia potentially being moved to the bullpen. So maybe that's something where Garland, Garcia starts the year in the rotation, and then later on, Hunter Brown comes on and they put him in the rotation.

There was a report last year that, last year, this past season, I always talked like, we're already in the new year. We're not in the new year yet. The Astros offered Jose Orquite straight up for Wilson Contreras with the Cubs last season. So I still think there's a chance

they can move one of these pitchers, an Arkidi, a Luis Garcia, for a catcher if they wanted to do that. Sounds like they're interested in Varshow. And then Hunter Brown has a shot that way, too. So there's plenty of ways. for this to play out before we get to spring training. One that's starting five for the Astros is Lance McCullors.

Oh yeah, that's also true. Just putting that out there. That's a fantastic point because, yeah, definitely not the model of health or consistency. Always opportunity for somebody else when Lance McCullors is in your rotation. Absolutely. Number three on this list is Kate Cavali with the Nationals.

Big fastball, lots of strikeouts, poor control. There was a report that he will be in the National's opening day rotation. Not exactly sure what. what the ending total will look like this season. He got just over 100 total last year. Maybe it's like 130. If they really want to push him,

he gets up to 140. I like the strikeout upside here, Welsh, but I do worry about the control and the whip being, you know, very hurtful for you. Yeah, this is like, you know, we were talking about like Kyle Harrison. Kyle Harrison's got, you know,

big stuff with walk problems. Cavali's got some big stuff, but the walk and overall command problems are just a lot more prolific. And that's just, there's nothing else to say about that. I'm not the biggest Cade Cavali guy on the entire planet. Last year, in the miners, had a 371 ERA,

struck out 104 over 97. He got one game start, six strikeouts in his little Major League debut. But he's on this list because of exactly what you said. He's aligned for a rotation spot. You know, it's fun with hitters. I would just point out, it's really fun with hitters on bad teams to speculate, like C.J. Abrams, Luis Garcia. Kind of fun to speculate on this year in draft if they could pick up.

Pitchers are a lot tougher because, you've got to have run support overall. So I think these guys are tough. Even McKinsey Gore, these guys are tough to bet on. But it's simply because of the strikeout potential and he's going to get the early opportunity. But I'm with you. I think the walks are a major problem to watch. I don't know how long the nationals are, especially early on in the season,

we'll let that go until the back in when they're clearly out of contention and vying for their shot at Dylan Cruz next year. Then you just kind of let him do his thing. But yeah, he is probably the wildest of all the guys. on this. Just a quick note on Cade Cavali because you might look at the minor league numbers and be like, got off to a miserable start last year. His final 12 starts at AAA, he had a 212 ERA. Yeah, and I'm glad you said that. It's more like a top prospect. In July, he didn't give up a run, like to your point. So he had a six ERA in April. He had a five ERA in May and he had a four ERA in June. So just take all those together and see why it's all falling apart. Three starts in

July. He did not give up an earn run, only walked three during that time. And he had a really strong end, at least in the minors, I believe it was, where he was able to put together in August a few good outings, which where is it here? I think it was, oh yeah, 257 ERA, where he walked nine, struck out 27 and 21 inning. So he had an immensely strong end of the minor league season. It's just a weird sandwich. Bad minor league start for three months, then good. And then there's this tiny little piece of lettuce in the inbred of like, you know, good into the minor league season, but this like bad start, you know, 14 ERA in the majors that is kind of compounded by his walk issues. So that's why he's intriguing even more. It's a great point you bring up, Scott, that

that end of the season might be something for us to watch, especially that the walks tapered back a little bit. Last two names on this list, pitching prospects that could help you this upcoming season in redraft. Drey Jamison with the Diamondbacks, we mentioned him already, made four starts at the end of the year, one against the Dodgers, one against the Padres, two against the Giants. He had a 1.48 ERA, 111 whip, nearly a strikeout per inning, 56% ground ball rate, really like that as well. Did give up a lot of hard contact. 4.49 expected ERA according to stat cast. And then the other name here is Ken Waldechuk with the Oakland A's, came over from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade, and great minor league numbers for Waldechuk. Kind of does it with

like deception, so I don't know how much he's going to get away with it at the major league level. But Scott, two names here that I think will be semi-popular sleeper candidates for next season. Dre Jameson and Ken Waldeshuk. Yeah, I like Jameson more. The way he came up and immediately against the Dodgers and the Padres just shut him down. I mean, that, you know, I talked about how unimpressive Jameson was just from pure ERA standpoint to AAA, you know, and kind of building up Brandon Fatt,

because Fatsy R.A was good at AAA. Jameses was horrible, and yet he came up and he looked great, and, you know, that was more in line with the scouting reports. And I think he's ready to take on a big role for the Diamondbacks right away. Ken Waldichuk's always been a weird one because the strikeout numbers have been great in the miners. The stuff has never rated particularly well. Kind of struck me as, you know, a gimmicky sort of pitcher. deceptive delivery.

And some guys, sometimes those work out. Like Alex Wood had ridiculous minor league numbers, wasn't a huge prospect, has put together a pretty good career. It's been a solid fantasy option at times. And so while the Chuck is kind of looking to follow that pattern, that path to success, obviously isn't helped by supporting cast in Oakland.

Like, there's a chance he takes off and was worth the late round flyer. I'm going to bet against him for this year. All right. I think there's just too much to overcome. The last point I wanted to make on Dre Jameson, admittedly, I'm a fan. I've done three NFBC draft so far, and I have him in two of those.

Four seam and a sinker combined over 60% usage, so it does use those a lot, throws like mid-90s with it. Slider, small sample, was ridiculous. It throws it 25% of the time, 105 batting average against 46% whiff rate, and something else I just really like for the Diamondbacks rotation,

Brent Strom being the pitching coach. last year already kind of got these guys back on track. Merrill Kelly had an awesome year. Zach Gallen had an awesome year. And now he's getting to work with these young kids. We saw how much success Brent Strom had with the Astros in the past. Just a really, really big fan of the Diamondbacks pitchers moving forward. Drey Jamison being one of those.

Welsh, I had a bunch more names here. Pitching prospects, it's kind of like shortstop where there's just so many to talk about. It's like, I wish we could just do like three podcasts on pitching prospects. Probably could, but, you know, just some other stuff. could. And I throw out just as a side quick thing. Like, I totally agree with you. I think Andrew Painter was worth talking about in the redraft conversation. Guys, we didn't talk about Bobby Miller. I would throw out here for simply talking about redraft and not dynasty. Bobby Miller is, I think, on the table, Cody Morris in Cleveland. You're just looking for opportunities. There's a few other Gordon

Gricefo, possibly, though, St. Louis is always kind of locked. And Seattle's got a couple of guys pending what could happen with them in Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller. I mean, there's just a bunch of interesting guys that are getting really close in redraft that you could speculate on, and the dynasty list, even bigger, even sexier, and even more fun. Yeah, you mentioned Bobby Miller. I put Gavin Stone in there as well for the Dodgers, who had one of the most impressive statelines

of any minor league pitcher last year and really rocketed up the rankings. With the way, like, it seems like the Dodgers are going youth movement this year. They did just sign Cindergards, so they don't need Miller or Stone in their rotation to begin the year. But I think they both will be.

be in the rotation at some point during the year. Along with Ryan Pepio, who I mentioned earlier, great stuff, bad control. All three of them. I would say Miller and Stone are probably both going to be among my top 10 pitching prospects, maybe a little outside. Pepio will be lower on the list because of those control issues. But all three could emerge as noteworthy fantasy options before the end of the year. So many names.

other names too, like Tink Hens of the Cardinals, we haven't even mentioned him. Like definitely a name to know for Dynasty. Saw him out at the, in the Arizona Fall League. He was going up against his teammate. Jordan Walker almost took him deep, which was pretty awesome to watch.

Brian Beow came up late for the Red Sox, got off to a rocky start, really started to figure it out late. I'm pretty interested in him as a late round sleeper this upcoming year. Just wanted to quickly get your thoughts on these three. Jack Leiter was, you know, regarded as one of the,

one of the, he was the top pitcher drafted in his draft class and then basically fell flat on his face. 554 ERA, 155 whip, started off in double A. Maybe they pushed him a little bit too quickly. The other two, D.L. Hall, what are you expecting? Is he a starter with the Orioles? And Tanner Bibby, I don't know if you know anything about him. Picked him up in the Scott White Dynasty League. I know he's like a huge riser right now. You don't know if he knows anything about Tanner Bibby. Come on. Who are you talking to? I mean.

Tanner Bibby. Tanner Bibby actually got one of the bigger boost, the bigger boost of any pitchers. I put on my most recent list. It's hard to deny. Yeah, I mean, just quick run through Tanner Bibi, I would argue. That's something we didn't talk about at all, and I probably should have brought up. I apologize. You mentioned it before. Cool thing that I got going on.

We just finished it is I do the P180P drafts. What that is is a top 200 prospect ADP list that is curated over multiple drafts. We did five drafts. Both you took part in it. I was in it. And we take all these drafts to create some version of an ADP. How can you do that with? prospects. This is the only place that I've been able to do it. And Bibi is going to be one of those guys

that is going to probably be one of the highest risers because I believe he went, you want a crazy one. Let me type it in here real quick. And I don't want to make us, I don't want to extend us too crazy here. But Shelley Versaire took him inside the top 50 overall in her draft. And it leveled itself out top 75 overall prospect on my list on my on this ADP it's not my own list this is all the drafters you guys industry people everything he ended up with an ADP inside the top 75 which is a really really big number only 27 walks to 167 strikeouts it's very cliffly-esque he's going to be on a rocket um a deal hall i've always liked his stuff i think he is the quintessential is there pitching prospect type of guy. I think he could go relief. There's been injury issues with him.

It's kind of two bigger pitchers, two big pitches, but obviously, like, they can work it out. My gut tells me that he is wavering between starting and relieving this year and maybe he goes in that other direction. And Jack Light or someone just asked me this question online about, am I a buy or a sell on him? And I'm still a buy. I think they did push him aggressive. There's a trend that the Rangers have going on that I don't know if it's them or they're letting these guys do this, but you now have seen both Vanderbilt pitchers alter the way they're throwing. It was clear with Kumar Rocker, and the same thing has kind of been seen with Jack Lighter, which I don't know if it's had weird results.

They both didn't pitch for like, you know, pretty much entire years and then got thrown into the fire, Kumar, obviously, in the AFL. And Leiter went to AA. I think it's a really, really tough assignment that he got. I saw him in spring training. Going up against Bobby Witt was the only person that could get him. He was able to get to Vinny Pasquintino in this one. weird game when the lockout ended.

And the slider is real. He's just got command issues right now. The fastball is a big power fastball. He lives off of it to set up secondaries. And I still like him. There is relief risk. I do not think it's going to go in another direction. I would bet lighter a million times over Kumar Rocker right now.

And I didn't feel that way when I saw them in college. So I'm a believer and I think he is dirt cheap to buying dynasty right now, where I think you should be aggressive to go get Brandon fat. I think you can do the same thing for minuscule the cost for Jack Leiter. The only thing holding up is his name, but people are terrified because he had a 5-E-R-A. He had a 5-5-4-ERA this past season. The walk-rate. The walk-rate.

Exactly. I think you're going to see some changes in him this coming year. And I will be taking pictures because right over here is their facility. I will be over there during spring training. And hopefully I see Jack Leiter spending some time with this guy you might be familiar with Jacob de Grom. All righty. Well, we're going to wrap there.

Actually, before we do, I'm happy you brought up the P-180P moks because I think we're going to probably do something surrounding that in the coming weeks. You know, Scotty's going to be off celebrating the holidays. So we'll have a little bit more Welsh time here. And I think we can do some fun stuff with the data that you gain from that. So that's coming up in the next couple of weeks. But for now, we're going to wrap there for the Welsh and Scotty. I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.