Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 First Base Recap! Top Performers & Early 2025 Rankings! (10/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 22, 2024

Before we get to first base, the World Series is set (2:14)! Who ya got, Yankees or Dodgers? ... How accurate was first base ADP (13:15)? ... Vlad Jr. bounced back in a big way (17:22)! ... Bryce Harper has been consistently great (21:31). ... Josh Naylor finally stayed healthy and broke out (23:04). ... Is Father Time catching up to Freddie Freeman (26:47)? ... Pete Alonso has regressed (31:43). ... Spencer Steer continues to squeeze every ounce of Fantasy value (37:07). ... Matt Olson has been inconsistent throughout the years (41:42). ... Alec Burleson had a breakout season (44:05). ... Christian Walker remains consistent (48:00). ... Cody Bellinger is fine (49:35)? ... The top six first basemen seem pretty set in stone for 2025 (52:42). ... Who are the rest of the Top 12 first basemen for next year (55:13)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, Rishing. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, October 22nd.

I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we are recapping the first. first base position from this past season and revealing our way too early top 12 at first base for 2025. But first, the World Series is set. East versus West. Powerhouse versus powerhouse. MVP versus MVP.

Studs everywhere. The Los Angeles Dodgers are taking on the Bronx Bombers. My new York Yankees. Oh my goodness gracious. Do I even have to ask who you guys are rooting for? I would have rather you played the of all the dramatic things. I probably have that somewhere. Yeah, I will just say that it would be fun to live in New York City

when one of the New York teams wins a championship. You haven't had many of them lately, notably. But. 15 years since the Yankees went to the World Series, which have any New York base teams won since then? No, right? Did the Rangers win one? No, the Giants, the New York Giants won. Oh, yeah, that was like 2017, right?

2011? Weren't they like 2007 and 2011? They weren't that far apart. I don't know, I could be making that up. Sure. I think we could probably Google that. Either way, I am just saying all this to say that I don't have to root for a Yankees World Series, thankfully, because the Liberty won.

So I got to experience a New York championship And now I get to root for the Yanke Root against the Yankees as my heart wants Without feeling even a little bit of doubt or guilt about it How could you do this to me, Chris? How can you do this to me? You know, the one thing I am annoyed about Is this like sour grapes BS

That I'm seeing from a lot of people That like, oh, this was preordained or, oh, you just spend money to win a championship. And it's like, it's so dumb. It, yes, these are the two marquee franchises in baseball. They are two of the five highest payroll teams in baseball. They've got between seven and nine future Hall of Famers on their rosters, depending on how you want to define that term.

One of them is inactive. Clayton Kirshall. Clayton Kirsh. And then it depends how. of the Hall of Famers between the two rosters. Yeah. And then like I think John Carlos Stan is basically a coin flip at this point. No chance.

Oh, he only needs, he doesn't even have 45 war. He only needs 71 home runs to get to 500. And he's putting together a really good postseason resume. John Carlos Stan has a really good chance to get in the Hall of Fame. It would be one of the lowest wars to make the Hall of Fame. That's fine. He's going to, recent history.

He's just, I don't, I don't, I don't, the 500 home runs has. hasn't been a magical number. There's only one guy. Wait, there's only one guy who didn't get in. Oh, no, there's multiple. Oh, sorry, steroid guys. Yeah. Okay.

There's no, there's no non-steroid 500 Homer guys who haven't gotten in, right? It's just Palmero, Sosa, Bonds, Rayrod, and McGuire. I'm pretty sure that's right. And sounds right. He said Sosa?

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But either way, my, my point is, as, as pre- ordained as you can make it seem now. The Yankees were below 500 in June and July. And like a lot of Yankees fans had given up hope.

They had two healthy starters and neither of them were good at the time. But also Chris, if that was the case, wouldn't this just happen every year? Like that's dumb. It's dumb. It's like every people complained and nobody watched the World Series last year when it was the dimebacks of Rangers is the sixth and seven seeds. or whatever it was. And now people are,

and it's just like, I think it's important to remember that when people say, oh, nobody wants to see the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series, what that actually means is 12 cranky people on Twitter

who complain about everything will complain about this as well. Yeah. But I'm super excited for this. Like, what more can you ask for? This is like what, like the golden years of baseball

were teams full of Hall of Famers, duking it out in the World Series every year. Like this is what, when you think of the Golden Age of baseball, the 50s, the 60s, like it was Dodgers Yankees, full of future Hall of Famers going up against each other. I am super stupid about this.

I don't think many people who are on Twitter. Not many people who are alive today remember the 50s and 60s of baseball. So I don't know that they can have nostalgia for it. Very few people remember. remember the last time the Yankees and Dodgers played in the World Series? It was 41 years ago. Yeah.

No, I mean, that was before I was, before any of us were born. So that's one thing I want to say. I'm having to, like, go react to things you've said in addition to say my own thing here. So that's one thing. Another thing is that 15 years, again, since the Yankees have been to the World Series, if you're just distributing league championships evenly, that puts them right on pace, right? So nobody can say, oh, it's always the Yankees.

No, that's the first time in 15 years. That's how often if they're evenly distributed that any team should win a league championship. Third, I just want to say they are not evenly distributed. The Yankees have been failures for quite some time. I did a lot of belly aching a couple weeks ago about the playoff format with the addition of a third wild card and extending the wild card round such that by weeks are not by weeks

but buy series are required for the top two seeds and I still don't think that's a great way to determine a championship in baseball but ultimately here we are and the leader in each league in run differential is now that league's representative in the world series. And I think run differential is probably a better indicator of how good a team is than actually win loss record, though in this case, also win loss record. The best team, the number one seed in each league is now in the world series. This is your dream come true. It worked out.

Yeah. Yeah. And I still would have rather seen the Phillies take on the Dodgers at some point in the playoffs. We never got that. But yeah, ultimately it worked out. So many people are mad listening to us talking about how excited we are about a Dodger Yankee series. Well, the other thing is I don't like the Dodgers or the Yankees. I can't really bring myself to root for either.

So I'll be watching with a non-ruding interest, which is never the most emotionally gratifying way to watch. But at least I'll feel like we have a legitimate champion when all is said and done. And the final thing I want to say is the Dodgers are doing this with two starting pitchers basically and one of them, Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn't taking on like a starting pitcher workload. The others, Jack Flaherty.

Yeah, Walker Bueller's making stars for them too, but nobody was hoping to see Walker Bueller starting in the playoffs for the Dodgers this year. So it's, they were the best team in NL. they had the best run differential, but I don't know that they entered the playoffs as the best team at that point in time because their pitching staff was so broken down.

And also Freddie Freeman, he's having to sit occasionally because his ankles messed up. I didn't think the Dodgers would make it. I mean, they were down two to one against the Padres and the Padres looked like the better team at the time, more complete team at that. And then, you know, obviously the Mets had that magical run.

Shout out to the Mets too, by the way, and the Guardians. I mean, really a magical season for the Mets. Oh my God, Grimmis, everything in between. It was great for them. And then the Guardians, like, first year manager, Stephen, vote. Just everything clicks. So, yeah, shout out to both of those teams for making it as far as they did.

Can I get an official prediction from each of you, World Series? What do we get? I'll go Yankees. I think they have the better pitching. Yeah, I will also say Yankees in six. You know what? I already said it. Yankees in six.

Yeah, I was going to say Yankees and seven. That's my official prediction as well. Yeah, I think we'll get lots of back and forth, lots of fireworks. Playoff G, Giancarlo Stan. I could never say another bad word about that guy again because my goodness, it's been so awesome to watch him. You know, I was talking to some Yankees fans that we work with. And one of them was like, oh, Yankees fans were never that down on John Carlos Stan. He got booed in his first.

game at Yankee Stadium. I mean, that's anybody, though. Right, but like, you don't deserve him. That's all I'm going to say. All right. Well, that took longer than I thought. Let's take our first break. When we return, we will recap the first base position, and we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's talk first base. The top 10 first baseman in ADP entering this past season,

where Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonzo, Vladimir Guerrero, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Walker, Tristan Kossis, and Spencer Steer. Pretty good. Just like catchers, six of the top 10 were correct. Bellinger and Walker finished just outside of the top 10, and both of them dealt with some injury this year. So overall, I think the top 10 and ADP was pretty spot-on accurate here at the position. Paul Goldschmidt did take a step back.

He regressed, getting a little bit older. Tristan Kossis obviously got hurt, so that kind of wrecked his season. Chris, one word to describe first base this past year, and I guess just kind of like the state of first base. How do you feel about it? Disappointing. Can I say more than one word? Now you can, yes.

Okay. For FanGraphs has data going back to, I believe, 2002, where you can sort how each league performed at each position. So not listed at first base, but actual performance at first base when they were playing first base. this was the worst year for first baseman hitting in the last 23 years at least i'm frankly going to assume that it's one of the worst if not the worst year for first basement ever because on the whole i think first baseman are hitting worse than they did historically i think there are a couple of reasons for that one is i think the universal d h has just shifted some guys who

would have been first baseman in the past to a different position. I think the just getting better at defensive positioning and then shifting before the ban played a part in that as well. But like 20 years ago, Kyle Schorber and Marcelo Zuner are probably first baseman, right? Like that that's probably where those guys end up now. And instead, every team has more D8 spots so that I think has thinned the pool for first basement. I think there's also just we're in a, um, I went back and looked at.

at baseball prospectus his top 50 first top 50 prospects over the past like decade or so and first base has been pretty bad for top 50 prospects brendan mccay pet alonzo okay that one worked out yorna alvarez was a first baseman coming up andrew von spencer torquist and tristan casas those are the last like seven years of first baseman in the top 50 overall the last three or four especially pretty disappointing and Casas, I know we all still have some hopes for, but there hasn't really been a top prospect at first base to hit. If you want to count Yordon Alvarez, him, if not Pete Alonzo.

Yeah. That's a pretty long time to go without like a top prospect of first base hitting. So Vladimir Guerrero was the third baseman coming up. So that is just, yeah, the first base position as a whole had a 107 weighted runs created plus. That was the lowest in the 23 year database. the Fangraph has and I think only

three yeah only three times has it been worse than one 10 so this is a 20 20 20 24 was a big outlier in terms of first base production it shows up you know because because you those numbers you gave were for players

actually playing first base and of course the ones who are going to be eligible at first base heading into 2025 are the guys who were actually playing first base and when you look at my early rankings, your early rankings for 2025, you're going to see it.

It's not pretty. There are not enough starting caliber first base been in my mind to go around in a 12th team league. All right, let's get into the top 10 from this past season based on Roto slash categories. And I'll mention if they were higher or lower in a head-to-points league. And again, I don't think we need to spend too much time

on each player here, because again, this is just kind of like a taste heading into the offseason, and obviously our position previews for next season will come much later on. But let's start off with the number one first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was also the top first baseman in head-to-head points. It was

not particularly close. He had 85 more fantasy points than the number two first baseman, who was Freddie Freeman in that format, and Vlad had his best season since that breakout in 2021. He hit 323 with 30 homers, 103 RBI, and a 940, OPE, and a 940 OPS. He's 26 years old, incredibly durable, entering a contract year. Scott, my only hesitation,

I guess, moving forward with Vlad is that now you'll have to spend a probably, you know, one, two turn pick on him, late first, early second round pick on him. And we have seen year to year inconsistency, right? Massive 2021, two years in between where he was, you know, he was solid. He didn't kill you, but he also just wasn't amazing. And then obviously we just had this big year. So that might be my only hesitation. Yeah. Yeah, because I thought I would see in the underlying numbers why things turned around for Vladimir Guerrero.

So whether it was putting the ball in the air more, putting the ball in the air in the appropriate direction more, me pulling it in the air more. But that didn't really happen. So it's hard for me to say. okay, here's what he did, and this is why it's sustainable. His expected stats on stat cast were better. They were amazing. 323 expected batting average 5, 76 expected slug.

Those both look a lot like his 2021 season where he hit the 48 home runs and was the best player in fantasy. So it's reading something Vladimir Guerrero did differently. But I don't know. I don't know why I can't say with great confidence that he won't that his 25 and 26 won't go like his 22 and 23 did. He still had great expected stats, but they weren't as good. And his overall numbers didn't justify where you drafted him. If you believed there was something tangible holding Vladimir Guerrero back from living up to his expected stats in 2022 and 2022 and 2023, I don't think there's, like you said, much reason to believe that he made tangible changes that should have changed that.

He pulled the ball less often. He hit the ball slightly less often in the air. So I think the case for Vladimir Guerrero is just, one, just look at the expected stats. The skill set is clearly awesome. And two, he just ran cold in 2023. Like, I think that's the case. And I have no way of proving that. Because 2022, he actually just didn't have good expected stats.

He just wasn't as good. 2023 is really the only year where you have the big underperformance. Let's move on to go ahead. Well, yeah. I mean, 2022 were the worst of the expected stats, but they were still a lot better than he actually, his actual performance. So, yeah, I mean, having said all of that,

I still am inclined to think Vladimir Garrier. Barrero is really as good as he showed in 2024. Because that's what I thought after his good 2022. That's what I thought after his not so good, 2023. And then 2024, the two disappointing years in a row was like, okay, now I'm not so sure. But it is, he has had a predictable hit,

an unpredictable history so far. And I'll just say like, if the floor is 26 homers 95 RBI, there are worse picks you can make. Yeah, I mean, he, Vlad has been a top 24 player three of the past four years. I mean, that one 2022 season, he was 62nd overall, or no? No, I think that was actually in 2023. I think 2022 he was a little better than 2023.

Yeah, so 2023, 60 second overall, which, you know, that's pretty bad. Again, it doesn't completely sink you, but let's move on to number two. That was Bryce Harper, who is one spot lower in total headside points, just behind Freddie Freeman in that format. solid season for Harper, he hit 285, with 30 homers, 85 runs, 87 RBI, 7 steals, and an 898 OPS. He's been very consistent recently. He's been between a 285 and 293 batting average and between an 87 and 900 OPS each of the past three years. So incredible consistency, he's dealt with some injury during those years. But in terms of just batting average and OPS, it's been very consistent for Bryce Harper.

Chris, is it were you at all that Harper overperformed his? his expected stats this past season. And those expected stats were actually his lowest collectively since 2016. Yeah, I mean, because he's 32, I think it's reasonable to take a look at that and say, hey, maybe the skill sets declining here. I don't know how, like, he hit the ball a little less hard, you know, and that's, you know, a couple of years in decline now. So, you know, maybe that's what we're seeing.

I can't say I'm too worried about it. But yeah, I think the gap between him and Freddie Freeman for next year is really small. And I don't think there's much of a gap to Matt Olson either. So I don't really have super strong opinions about this next, well, I guess not this next group that we're going to be talking about, but that group of players. I think they're all in a tier. All right. The number three first baseman was Josh Nail. He was actually one spot lower in total head to head points as well behind Harper and Freeman.

And he finally managed to stay healthy and had a big year. 243 batting average, 31 homers, 108 RBI, six deals, and a 776 OPS. Didn't really notice much of a change in his batted ball data or quality of contact. I think it's mostly because he stayed healthy. And we know that progressive field played much better for left-handed power this past season. We also saw that kind of play out in his home road splits. He was much better at home than he was on the road this past season. Josh Naylor was.

Scott, would you bet on Naylor coming close to this type of production again? Yeah, I would bet on him doing this again. He was kind of underwhelming as the season went on because he came on so strong at the beginning. He looked like a stud at first base. He ended up being the third best for first baseman ahead of mainst. stays like Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonzo. But in the second half, he had a 717 OPS.

Yeah. Did Josh Naylor. His batting average finished around 240. I don't know that he can be much better than that is the thing. And obviously the Freemans and Alonzo's and Matt Olson's of the world can. We've seen it before. Josh Naylor, like, you would expect him to hit for average because of how little he strikes out, but he really sells out for the power.

And so if he's not playing in a more favorable environment, one that's conducive to left-hand to power, like we saw from Progressive Field this past year, I could see things going really poorly for him. Fortunately, Progressive Field is playing like it is. So it's probably fine. He'll probably do something similar again to this next year. But I do think there are limits to his upside.

Having said that, low strikeout rate, Josh Naylor plays a lot better in a points league than a roto league. Also just a true, it's weird to have an RBI standout, but he is a legitimate RBI standout because of the spot he hits in the order, because of his extra base power and high contact rate, that just lends itself to a ton of RBI.

He had 97 and 121 games the year before this. Yeah, and the team context too. I mean, he has two players ahead of him, or sometimes three if he bats cleanup. And, you know, Stephen Kwan, Jose Ramirez, those guys are on base all the time. I mean, Kwan just wrecks havoc on opposing teams. So yeah, just having those players on base for you

and making contact as much as he does. Yeah, I think that usually bodes well for the RBI total for Josh Naler. The number four first baseman was Freddie Freeman who jumps up in a points league. He was the number two first baseman in that format. Does have a slight edge in plate discipline and plate appearances over Harper and Josh Naler.

Is Father Time Up? approaching it might be on Freddie Freeman. Everything took a step back. He hit 282 with 22 homers, 81 runs, 89 RBI, 9 steals, 854 OPS. Still a perfectly fine season, but obviously we were judging him, you know, as a top 5, top 10 pick this past year. And he didn't necessarily live up to that. The quality of contact, just kind of middling at this point for Freddie Freeman. Chris, it wouldn't shock me if we get a bounce back, right?

like we kind of saw Paul Gulchmitten's like early 30s fall off and then kind of bounce back fell off again but it wouldn't surprise me if it happens for Freeman he's also going to be 35 years old on opening day yeah I mean that's the the concern is just how how invested do you want to be in the bounce back candidate the bounce back prospects of a 35 year old like it it wouldn't surprise me I agree but it it's not necessarily something I think you can or should bet on. That being said, there was one thing that I remember early on in the season,

you know, he talked about, uh, I think he said it in spring training. If, if show hey wants to run, I'm going to take every time or whatever the, the quote was.

He did hit a little worse with men on base than he did with the, what the base is empty. And I, I do wonder if there's something to that where he just let a few more hitable pitches go by than he necessarily should have in pursuit of that. But I also can't say for sure how many of his plate appearances came with Shohei Otani on base or anything like that. So that's one thought I have. But I think the likelier explanation is he's just 35 and he's probably just not quite as good as he used to be. And I think it will be a, he's going to decline on a

gliding path. Like I don't think it's going to, the bottom's going to drop out. But, I think you could make the case for him as low as fourth for 2025. I think to whatever degree Freeman is declining, that's going to be factored into his price. I don't remember the last time Freddie Freeman wasn't a first rounder or at least a borderline first rounder. He's going to be more like a borderline second rounder in drafts next year. So I think, and I actually think that has less to do with his own performance than just so many quality hitters emerging and him kind of being the also ran among that group. But, okay, the power, so all three of his years with the Dodgers, he's fallen short of 30 homers. And so obviously that has to be the expectation now, 20 to 25 homers as opposed to 30 to 35.

And maybe we could have already said that going into this year. I think the increase in stolen bases his first two years of the Dodgers kind of soften that blow of the power. But he went back to nine steals this past season. So I don't think we should factor in Freddie Freeman making much of a contribution in stolen bases anymore either. The main way I think, the thing I think you can really just write off as a fluke for Freddie Freeman

was the batting average, which was still a very good 282. But his life. line drive rate was, I think, the lowest it's ever been. And that to me doesn't seem like any sort of age-related thing. And so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Freddie Freeman bounce back with a 300 batting average. And of course, he's still an Iron Man. He has, he did miss some time this year with the ankle injury. And it's been bothering him through the postseason.

But the fact he's playing through it at all is kind of, kind of speaks to his willingness to or his determination. to play. And in that lineup, batting high in that lineup, if he's batting 300, he's going to have a ton of runs in RBI. If it's only 20 to 25 homers and only five steals,

I think that's still going to be an early round performer. And we've seen this just kind of randomly with hitters in really good lineups where the counting statutes weren't there for whatever reason. I mean, Bryce Harper. Harper,

same thing, right? He was right in the same range, 85 to 90 runs in RBI each. Yordon Alvarez. in one of the best lineups in baseball. Same thing happened to him. And Jose Ramirez, this happened to him last year. Granted, the Guardian's lineup was not nearly as good

as these other lineups were talking about. But we just saw Jay Ram bounce back in a huge way where the runs in RBI just boosted up dramatically. So it wouldn't surprise me. When I say, like, bounce back for Freeman, can he hit 300 next year with, you know, 22, 23 home runs, 100 runs, 100 RBI, 7, 8 steals? Yeah.

That's exactly. That's exactly what I'd expect. And if he does that, he's probably, you know, returns top 12 value. And in one of these early, early draft champions leagues that's going on at NFBC, he went in the third round of a 15 team league, I'm pretty sure, or right at the two, three turn. So that would be like 30-ish. Yeah, I'll take Freddie Freeman all day at that price.

I think him and Matt and Trey Turner were actually in that range, which. Shohey Otani plus Freddie Freeman plus Trey Turner seems like a heck of a way to start a league. Yeah. I don't know if we're talking about the same draft, but yeah, I saw one where Trey Turner was drafted 45th. Yeah. And that, wow. That made no sense to me. I could, I could not wrap my head around that one at all. Gladly would pay for it. Sliding, but not not Trey Turner. Yeah. The number five first baseman was Pete Alonzo. Still one of the premier power bats in the game, but he has kind of regressed overall as a hitter. The strikeouts have jumped up a little bit. They're not egregious by any means. But, you know, there was a two-year span where he was below 20 percent. although that's been up over 20% each of the past two years. And the OPS has been at 788 and 821

in each of the past two years as well. So, like, you know, that's a pretty good hitter, but it's not the Pete Alonzo we saw earlier on in his career. He's turning 30. He's a pending free agent, so there are some questions here regarding Pete Alonzo, Scott. Yeah, I have some questions because for the years leading up to this one,

he had a surprisingly good strikeout rate for a power hitter, which was part of the reason why, for example, he hit 217 in 2023. And we kind of gave him a pass for that because, oh, look, he struck out 23% of the time, the year before he struck out 19% of the time, the year before 20% of the time. Like this is a guy who, if anything,

should be hitting for higher averages than he's been doing. And so 2017 just seems like, like a total aberration. Well, he did bounce back with a 240 batting average, but the strikeout rate continued to trend up. And the power wasn't there.

And well, yeah, and in particular in the second half, what was the number? I think he struck out like close to 30% of the time in the second half. And I couldn't really find a great explanation for it.

So I still think Pete Alonzo is essentially Pete Alonzo, but now there's that little sliver of doubt in my mind that, oh, maybe this guy is on the decline. And I do see him as a tier below the normal top three, the Guerrero Harper Freeman class. Here is one sign that pitchers might be less afraid of Pete Alonzo. He's gone from early in his career, about 43 to 45 percent of the pitches were in the strike zone against him. Last year, 2023, it was 47. 24, 48%.

So pitchers are challenging Pete Alonzo in a way we've never seen before, and he is not making them pay. And you see like the quality of contact is just a little bit worse than it's been at his best. And he's going to be 30 this year. This is one where, you know, I said, I think Freddie Freeman declines on a glide path. Pete Alonzo is absolutely one I could see going like Chris Davis back. if he gets a long-term contract this year.

I would be very, very scared of. That's not to say I won't draft him in 2025. We'll see where he lands and what the lineup context is. He's another guy who I think you can bet on some RBI and run regression if he returns to New York. Those running RBI numbers were pretty low relative to what you should expect. But I, this is the one player heading into free agency the last few years where I'm like, if he only signs a one-year contract, I would perfect, I think that would make perfect sense.

Yeah, his free agency is fascinating to me. Pete Alonzo here that we're talking about. It's just how do you value a right-handed slugging first baseman who's bad defensively? And again, it feels like it's probably a skill set that's not going to age very well. And I'm sure other teams out there are thinking the exact same thing. And he has Scott Boris as his agent. So we'll see what happens here with Pete Alonzo. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll finish up.

up recapping first base and take an early look at our top 12 at the position. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in recapping the top five first baseman from this past season. Vladimir Guerrero, Bryce Harper, Josh Naylor, Freddie Freeman, and Pete Alonzo. Number six was Spencer Steer, a very useful player who squeezes the most out of his fantasy-friendly skill set. One of 12 players to go 20 and 25, 20 homers, 25 steals this past season. but the batting average came way down from 271 to 225.

Still very good plate discipline metrics. Definitely under the hood, good plate discipline. But Chris, I just wonder how long the leash is if that batting average continues to trend down. Like if he's hitting 200 on June 1st, is Spencer Steer still an everyday player? I don't know. Probably somewhere.

You know, he's got that defensive versatility or, you know, it's entirely, possible the Reds trade him this off season. Like I think that's a team that kind of desperately needs to make some trades. And he's one of the guys I would be looking to move if I was them. It just, yeah, it does feel like the skill set is like dancing on a nice edge, right? Where like the plate discipline's good, that helps. The home ballpark very good.

That helps. The quality of contact metrics are really mediocre, pretty much across the board. He doesn't really seem to do very much well once he puts the bat on the ball. He just does it often enough and optimizes his launch angles well enough that he's been a pretty useful fantasy option. But yeah, this is another one where if we weren't drafting Spencer Steer this time next year, I really wouldn't be particularly surprised if that happened. And he has a new manager in Terry Francona. I don't know if that's good or bad for him. but the fact is Terry Francona is inheriting Spencer Steer.

So it's not like he owes him anything. There's no loyalty there. I mean, obviously it seems like the organization likes Spencer Steer. But, you know, if he gets off to a slow start again, will Terry Francona stick with him? I don't know. So I do just worry about that. I, yeah, I mean, I don't like Spencer Steer. What did he do to you?

Yeah, that seems that seems wrong. I don't like him. I don't like this profile at all. I had him as a bust going into this year and I can't say he busted. He was pretty good. He took a step back. He took a step back. He hit, you know, we're talking about a guy who hit 225 overall.

He hit 198 in the second half. The fact that he stole bases and the fact that he plays his home games in Cincinnati, those are the only things saving Spencer Steer here. And, you know, if he got traded, I think it would totally, his value shows. totally bottom out at that point. And yeah, he would have to be in a spot where we could trust him to keep playing every day because I don't

I don't think his actual numbers justify him playing every day. And so the Reds have a lot of interesting pieces that'll hopefully be healthier next year. After hiring Terry Francona, I mean, who knows what this roster is even going to look like next year.

But I don't think Spencer, like I think Spencer Steer is his value in fantasy might lead people to believe he's a better player than he actually is and that always is a dangerous combination

when you're ranking a player for fantasy he had he had 25 expected home runs in Cincinnati if he had played every game of Cincinnati he would have had 11 in Pittsburgh 12 in Detroit 10 in Baltimore

just to, I mean, Baltimore is probably the far end in terms of the impact it would have on a player like Spencer Steer, but that's, I think any trade to the wrong location, certainly would be disastrous potentially for Spencer Steer. Yeah, Stere hit 20 home runs, has expected home runs according to Stack has 16.8. Yeah. So, I don't know, you knock a few home runs off there.

It's a low batting average. We'll see. I don't know. We keep doubting. Spencer Steer and you know overall it was still a productive fantasy season number seven he lost 50 points of batting average and 100 points of OPS from his rookie season 100% he was also still a top 60 player in fantasy so yeah yeah yeah it's it's like as it just i don't know Chris already said it but it just feels like a house of cards here waiting to topple yeah number seven first

baseman is Matt Olson who kind of feels like the hitter version of Aaron Nola we have that year on, year off inconsistency. He had a down season after that career year in 2023, but this season hit 247, 29 homers, 98 RBI. Again, it's not a terrible season by any means, but just nowhere close to what he did the year prior. Olson's OPS by year starting in 2018, 886, 734, 911, 802, 993, 7903, 7903, 790,

which Scott, you know, means we're getting a near 1,000 OPS again in 2025. Yeah, I mean, it's still within his ability to do that. And so I think as long as you're not drafting him to do that, if you're drafting him more according to his forward-facing numbers, then there's, it's all gravy at that point. I think it's basically his downside. What he just did is Matt Olson's downside, a 247 batting average 29 homers, 98 RBI.

and for a third round pick, that's... It's not that much different than what Josh Naylor did. Yeah, except it's probably Naylor's... His kind of baseline, stat line, and Olson, again, it's more like the floor. So two of the last three years, he's been closer to a 240 hitter, but as you pointed out, Frank, it's not like that... it's not like that is, you could just pencil in Olson for those numbers.

Yeah, I would, I think, just conservatively projecting, 250 to 260 with 35 to 40 home runs for Matt Olson. And if he does that while batting third or fourth for the Braves, assuming Acuna is healthy and everyone's good to go, then the counting stat should obviously be pretty awesome, once again here for Matt Olson. Let's get into our number eight first baseman. Let's kind of move quickly through these three

because I do want to get to your early rankings. Number eight at the position was actually Salvador Perez, but we spoke about him on the catcher recap. Please use him at catcher. Do not use Salvador Perez at first base unless you are desperate for some reason. But outside of him, the number eight first base in one was Alec Berluson, who actually won't have first base eligibility on CBS to start the year.

But I would bet on him gaining it pretty early in the season, assuming they don't sign somebody, but they've already announced that they are not bringing back Paul Gulles, Schmidt. So that makes me think that Alec Berluson will be the starting first basement for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he enjoyed a breakout 2024, where he hit

269 with 21 homers, nine steals and a 735 OPS. He did fade in the second half, but overall I really like this profile, Chris. It reminds me a lot of Josh Naler before his breakout. Now, I don't know if Burleson has that type of sealing. Probably power-wise, no,

I don't think so. But overall, I do like this profile. What do you think? Yeah, I think Scott mentioned at the beginning when you go through the rankings and you reach a point where you're like, oh, first base isn't good. I think this is that point. Not that like anybody is going to rank Alec Berluson this high. He's not a first baseman, but even if he was. I, yeah, I don't really have much interest in it. Like I don't want to say last year was the best case scenario for him as a hitter because he's young and

enough at 25 that there could be room to grow. And he did underperform his expected stats a little bit. That's something that has happened a couple of times now. And, you know, two tastes of the majors. So there might be something there. I just, he feels like just a guy. Like, he'll make a lot of contact. I think 20 to 25 homers and decent RBI numbers if he hits high in that lineup.

But it just, as a player, he feels utterly replaceable. Yeah, poor on base skills, which don't have a lot of direct impact in five-by-five leagues, but it'll impact how much he plays. It's terrible against left-handed pitchers. They basically stopped playing him against left-handed pitchers late in the season. So we're probably talking about a platoon player, even if he is the Cardinals' first baseman. I only rank Alec Berluson 56th in the outfield. Yeah, he didn't make my top 48.

Which was surprising to me going in. I figured, oh, top 40, something like that. like that. But 50, the more I looked at Alec Berlinson, the more I was like, yeah. A poor man's Curie Carpenter. A less consistent playing Lordus Garillo. Yeah. So sorry, Frank.

Sorry to let you down. It just a lot more when there were no expectations. It seems like one where like you could get to the end of the season and be like, oh, Alec Burleson hit 270 with 24 homers and drove in 88 runs and like, that would be a really good season. That'd be pretty, but like, As it's happening, it's like, okay, sure, I'll start him.

But like it never, there are other first basemen we haven't talked about who I think can be no doubt must start players. I don't think Alec Berluson's that. Like that the thing that could change everything for Alec Berluson is if he turns into a 300 hitter, which you don't have to squint too hard to see that happening. he hits the ball well to all fields. He makes a lot of contact. He has a pretty good line drive rate. But he ended up hitting only 269 this year, as expected batting average was 274.

I think something 265 to 275 is more realistic. And again, that's for probably a part-time player. Yeah, I hear that. I mean, the splits thing, definitely, I do not like. 11 max exit velocity, 72nd percentile. Maybe there's a little bit more juice in that bat. We'll see what happens with.

with Alec Berlinson. The number nine first baseman was Jainer Diaz, but we spoke about him on the catcher recap. Again, please use him at catcher, not at first base. But if we moved past Yiner Diaz, the next first baseman was Christian Walker, who missed some time with an oblique injury this season.

But other than that, he's been very consistent the past three years during that span between an 803 and 830 OPS, between a 217 and 239 ISO, a very consistent power bat. I put him one tier below Olson and Alonzo, But again, I'd expect something like 30-ish home runs from Christian Walker. Some questions here as well, Scott, as Walker, also a pending free agent like Alonzo, but he's also older at 34 years old.

Yeah, he's been very consistent since, what, three years in a row now in terms of what the percentages look like. He missed some time with an injury this year, so that brought the totals down. But he's basically been the exact same guy three years in a row as Christian Walker. and it's been pretty high-end, not quite stud territory, but he's been very good at outperforming his draft position. So the free agency obviously adds an element of uncertainty when it surprised me at all if the Diamondbacks brought him back,

that's something I think we should all be rooting for. But as things stand now, I have him I have him as kind of the last first baseman that if you draft him, you feel pretty set at the position. I think that's fair. And with that, number 10, someone who you might not feel set at the position,

someone that I know we all had questions on entering this year. Guess what? We still have questions. On Cody Bellinger, who was the number 10 first baseman, seems pretty likely to opt into the two years, $52 million remaining on that contract with the Chicago Cubs. He took a step back across the board.

He was still solid. 266 with 18 homers, nine steals, 751 OPS. Last offseason, we were trying to figure out who is Cody Bellinger. It kind of feels like he became a contact hitter, really bad quality of contact. The expected stats are really bad as well. Chris, I think I'd expect something like a 27, batting average, 20 homers, 15 steals, and good counting standards.

I mean, that's a good player. It's one that doesn't blow you away. Kind of unique skill set from the first base position because you don't really get many steals at this position. Yeah. So my jockey response is he needed to be in more two strike counts in 2024. Clearly, that's where things went wrong for him. My serious response is the overall profile looks so much less interesting

if it's nine steals instead of 20, which is where it was in 20, when he stole 20 bases and 130 games. Only 9 in 2024. Like, if you're getting 20 steals from a first baseman and he hits for a decent average and not much power, but like in a good lineup spot, like you can talk yourself into that.

The version that we got in 2024, yeah, he was a top 10 first baseman. It felt pretty unimpactful as it was happening. and you know he's another guy where he's going to be 30 next year do you want to bet on the 30 year old bouncing back athletically like he didn't really lose much athleticism in terms of the sprint speed it was just he didn't run as much and I know there's some injuries and maybe that explains it but I just it's another one where I just

I'm not going to be the one who drafts Cody Ballinger I guess I am not eager to do so I'll have more to say when we get into our top 12. But I think it'll make more, it'll be easier for the listener to follow if I address it then. I think I could be more likely to draft him in 2025, assuming the ADP comes down. He was like a,

anywhere from like a fourth to a sixth round pick, depending on the draft last year. If that comes down slightly, I think I could be in on Bellinger. Still 77th percentile sprint speed. And you mentioned the injuries, a fractured rib. That could maybe hamper his aggressiveness

on the bass pad. So, yeah. There were some weird things going on with the Cubs and stolen bases. Yes. They stole all of them in the second half, basically. Right. Like, Horner wasn't running

much early on. Swanson wasn't running much early on. Maybe Cody Bellinger just didn't get the memo late in the season. And so he wasn't able to make up the same ground in that category. I don't know. It was Craig Counsel taking over

and it's not like he is opposed to stealing bases. So it's, It's hard to know exactly what happened there. All right, let's wrap up by looking at some early 2025 first base rankings. We will compare and contrast Scott and Chris's top 12. And starting with the top six, Scott has Vladimir Guerrero, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, P. Alonzo, and Josh Naler. Chris's top six, guess what?

The same six, just in a slightly different order. Vladimir Guerrero, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Pete Alonzo, and Josh Naler. So the only difference is that Scott has Harper ahead of Freeman and then Chris has it swapped. So anything to add there? I mean, it is pretty straightforward. I have no real argument one way or the other on that one. If you want to put Harper ahead of Freeman, I think that's totally fine. Yeah.

Yeah, as we talked about, there are those small indicators of decline for Freeman that I don't really see for Harper. You mentioned his exit velocity was down a little bit. but if you want to go back, you know, four or five years in his career, it was right in line with that. And we all still thought of Harper as a stud then. So I think I just have more confidence Harper is still Harper than Freeman is still Freeman, though I think the current version of Freeman is very good. I did want to bring up that we both have Matt Olson ranked ahead of Pete Alonzo, which I wasn't certain we would because Alonzo was the best. better of the two this past year. And normally it's like, well, just draft whichever of those two was worse the year before because he's going to be a relative discount.

And he might, they were essentially the same player. But I guess we don't see them that way anymore because even though Olson was the worst of the two, he's the one we want more. Olson's skill set feels a little less fragile than Alonzo's. And I think part of it is also Alonzo as a free agent. We just don't know what that's going to look like, right? Like, is he, does he not sign until March? I think that's on the table. Like that, if, if Pidolons is a free agent two weeks before the season, I wouldn't really be shocked.

So that's, that's another one where I think there's just a little bit more uncertainty there. And I think Olson's demonstrated ceiling the last few years is higher. Yeah, I think that's totally fine. And one that I was going to bring up because some people might just look back at this season and think, oh, I got burned by Matt Olson. I don't want to go back to the well. But yeah, I think as of now, I would bet on Olson being better than Alonzo next year, even if it is just slightly better.

Scott's 7 through 12 at first base. We have Christian Walker, Spencer Steer, Salvador Perez, Vinipas, Quantino, Tristan Kossis, and Cody Bellinger. And for Chris, it's Spencer Steer, Vinipas Quantino, Christian Walker, Tristan Kossis, Cody Bellinger, and Salvador Perez. So you guys actually have the same 12 players between the two of the two. of you. Scott does have Christian Walker a little bit higher. Chris, you have Steer, Vinnie P. Baby. And Kossis, a touch higher in your rankings. Is there anything you just want to hit on

from this grouping before? I do want to spend a little bit of time on past Quantino and Tristan Casas because I think they'll be pretty popular players. Well, I think the thing for me is like, who didn't we include? And then you start looking at it. Oh, God. There's nobody that I feel like when I looked at the top 12 just now, you know, it's been three weeks since I did this exercise. It was like,

oh, really? That's the top 12. Like those guys are all, and then I was like, oh, who are we missing? And it's like, well, Isok Paredes,

I have no fail. Like, if he was still in Tampa, maybe, but no. He doesn't have first base eligibility. He's not even in my top 20. And 13 through 20 is pretty awful.

So this is, this is what I wanted to get into Bellinger from before because you were saying, I don't see myself drafting Bellinger. I'm not enthusiastic about drafting Bellinger either. But here's the thing. I put together my top 20 first baseman article before the season it actually ended.

Cody Bellinger got his 20th appearance at first base on the last day of the season. So he just barely retained eligibility at this position. And by default, he slotted in his number 12 for me. Because before then, my number 12 first baseman was Michael Tolia. And I did not feel good about that. So, like, if we're talking a 12-team league, no corner infield spot or anything, like, if Bellinger actually goes 12th where I rank him, you might take him just because you're the last one to take a first baseman.

Except you're overstating the case for first base. You have Salvador Perez in your top 10. Well, that's true. So he's going to be a catcher. And then of course, it's possible Spencer Steers drafted to play to outfield. is possible Cody Bellinger's drafted to play the outfield. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, it's, you're right.

It's not actually even going to work out that Cody Bellinger is going to be the 12th, first base, like truly first baseman drafted. So, just to avoid being the one to take Michael Tolia or Jake Berger, who I've ranked behind him, or Louisa Rize, who's not even second base eligible anymore, he's only a first baseman, so you can't say, oh, versus. I'm going to draft a rise. He's 15th for me. That doesn't feel good to have a non-power hitter

as your starting first basement, but that may be what happens for some people. Two that could sneak up, depending on, look, where Paul Gulchman lands, I know the first half was really bad. He got better in the second half. Still provides 10-ish steals at first base. Like, can he hit 250 with 20 homers, 10 steals again?

Like, I don't think that's crazy. if he goes to Houston, I think we'd be pretty excited about Paul Goldschmidt again. Not like overly, but, you know, based on the end of that top 12, like, yeah, maybe. Ryan Moucassel, if the Orioles trade him. That's the one.

He's another one, too, that could be interesting because the stack has data is still pretty good there on Ryan Malkassel. And they're 16 and 70, so they're right behind a rise for me. Yeah. Mountcastle, I agree 100%. Goldschmidt, he was better in the second half, but I think that the,

the signs of decline are just so clear there. It feels like a Jose A brave situation where we like, we're able to like squint and see reasons for optimism. He actually went to Houston, the spot you were talking about at that point in his career. And it just, it didn't get any better.

It only got worse. I look at the landscape and like, I kind of think it's like top six or bust for me almost. Like I'm not saying that entirely, but like Christian Walker's 34. Vinnie Pasco, we all like, we all like Tristan Casas,

we all think there's breakout potential, but like we haven't seen it as much as we'd like to from those guys where to where, is it really worth paying a premium for those guys ahead of, you know, like not that Jake Burger or Reese Hoskins

are all that good. I don't even have Hoskins in the top 20. I mean, he hit 26 homers and drove in like 86 runs or something last year. Like he was, he wasn't good. And the batting average.

average really bad, but like, if it's a top 100 pick on Vinnie Pasquantina, like if he gets pushed up there, I don't know if that premium's worth paying. I agree with that. My first thought was, I don't think there would be a premium on either of those guys, Vinnie P or Casas, I could be wrong, but my first thought was like, I think they'd be outside of the top 125 picks. I hope so. Yeah.

I hope so, too. I think I would draft a lot of them. That's a good point, because you keep bringing up guys and I'm like, oh, they're not in my top 20. So, like, I don't think there are a lot of number one first baseman. A lot of those, like, look at the top 12, there's not enough to go around. But there is kind of, like, among the just kind of mediocre middle at the position, it does run pretty deep. There are plenty of guys who can hit 20 to 25 homers. Great corner infield position, basically.

Right. Right. So if we're talking about like a. So if we're talking about. a 15 team league, a deep league, a corner infield league, then maybe you won't see Pasquantino and Casas pulled up for scarcity reasons, in which case they're going to be attractive picks for me because I actually want to have a good first basement and not one from the mediocre middle.

Quick thought on each of those guys. Vinnie P., you know, 262-19 homers, 97 RBI, 760 OPS. He's kind of the inverse of Spencer's steer. he hits the ball hard, hits a decent amount of fly balls. He pulls the ball a lot, yet his barrel rate is 7.1% in the 42nd percentile,

and he's kind of held back by playing in Kauffman Stadium. He hit 19 home runs. His expected home runs was 22.6. He would have hit 30 in Yankee Stadium, 32 in Cincinnati. So I think that probably should just be the expectation, Chris, is like 260 with 20 to 22 home runs,

but probably good counting stats here from Vinnie P. Yeah, that's one that I do wonder, like, is there something where, like, when he does pull the ball, he either hits it too high or too low, right? So, like, you know, that's one of those things where, like, there must be some explanation for why the power's not quite where we want it. Like, he hits either a lot of high, but relatively harmless fly balls to the pull side or something. Like, that's my thought on why Vinnie Pasquantino hasn't quite been as good as we hoped. I think the expectation should be 20 homers. And the hope is, I do think there's a 30 homer ceiling there. It's just how likely is he to get to it?

I'm not 100% sure on that. I feel pretty. I don't want to overdraft any past. Quintino again, I guess. Well, I mean, I think the biggest thing holding back the home run output specifically is just where he plays his home games. And there, it's a pretty good hitters park apart from home runs, as we talked about during the season. And we did see him over his final 52 games, Vinny Pasquantino hit 300. Exactly.

So it's just you want home runs from your first basement. I think even playing in Kansas City, you can count on Vinnie Pasquantino to be a good hitter. But obviously he's not going to steal bases and the home runs are going to be kind of underwhelming for a first basement. So he might be the most,

if you want to talk about the player whose value at a position improves the most in a points league versus a Roto league, I think Pasquantino is that guy at first base. I actually rank him seventh there versus 10th in Roto. So in points leagues, I have Pasquantino ahead of Christian Walker, Spencer Steer, and Salvador Perez, who only ranks that high because of the catcher eligibility, obviously. And I do want to say, you know, every year I do like a name brand versus replacement options piece.

And I might do that with Vinnie Pasquantino and Josh Naylor because they're like, Nailer hit for a lot more power this year. And if that's the case moving forward, then it doesn't really work. but like there might not be that big of a difference between the two of them. Like really good RBI numbers. I think Vinnie P's a better bet for batting average. Naylor a better bat for power. But like the overall picture might not be that different at the end of 2025 for those two guys. If you want to talk about points leagues,

Josh Naylor was 3.1 points per game this past year. And Vinnie Pasquantina was 3.0. Yeah. That makes sense. Yeah. I mean, it was very close. There had to head point per game production. I had that exact thought.

Chris while doing all my research earlier today, except it was with Alec Berluson and Josh Naler, but it sounds like I'm on Alec Berluson Island for now. Quick thought on Tristan Kossis. He was limited to just 63 games because of a fractured rib. He still managed 13 home runs, but the strikeout rate balloon to 31.7 percent. Was it related to the injury? It kind of looked like he was breaking out early on in April. He hit for much better power there. Scott, where are you at now on Tristan Kass is someone we were all pretty excited about. Yeah, I don't know how to feel anymore because I loved him as a prospect. I loved him coming into 2024.

Let's not forget that in the second half of 2023, Tristan Kossis slashed 317, 417, 617. So he looked like he was en route to becoming an absolute stud. And I still think he could be. but yeah the strikeout raid ballooned this year both before and after the injury returning from the injury and so maybe maybe it was just we should just chalk it up as a lost season like he it was a bad injury he suffered it cost him a lot of time it threw off his timing in all likelihood it just kind of derailed him and maybe he'll come back tristan cossus and it'll be like 2024 never happened but I think that's a plausible scenario,

but what do I want to invest in that scenario? The fact that first base is weak, I think is going to compel me to see the glass half full more, but Kossis is only my 11th ranked first basement, so I'm only willing to see it so full. All right, we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today.

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