Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 MLB Draft Recap! Way Too Early FYPD Rankings w/ The Welsh! (7/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 15, 2024

Before we get into the draft, does The Welsh have any thoughts on the Futures Game from this past weekend (4:10)? ... How does the top of this draft stack up against previous years (8:10)? ... The Guardians won the first overall pick with a draft lottery (16:10)? ... Second baseman Travis Bazzana was selected first overall (18:50). ... Does Charlie Condon have more upside than Bazzana because he's playing in Coors Field (23:37)? ... Chase Burns was the top pitcher selected in the draft (27:24). ... Jac Caglianone is a two-way player but will he continue to pitch (31:50)? ... The A's selected slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz (39:10). ... The second pitcher drafted was Hagen Smith by the White Sox (41:35). ... Does JJ Wetherholt offer a similar skillset to Bazzana (44:40)? ... Why is The Welsh so excited for Braden Montgomery (47:11)? ... Jurrangelo Cijntje is a switch-pitcher drafted in the first round (49:03)! ... We wrap up with The Welsh's way too early top 25 FYPD rankings for dynasty leagues (51:50)! Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, and welcome in to a special edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, July 15th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by the returning. Chris, the Welsh.

Today on the show, we are going to break down. some of the top picks in the MLB draft, which is still going right the second. I think they're in like the seventh round or something like that. We will take a look at the Welsh's way too early top 25 first year player draft rankings for those who play in dynasty leagues. Would be nice if I can speak, but Welshie, you are here. It's been too long, man.

Happy to have you back on the show. How is the season going for you? Ah, I love seeing your face Frank. I miss you. I miss everybody here. Even you people that don't miss me about Brandon Fott and the downtake of Corbyn Carroll, I still miss all of you. Season has been great.

It's draft season. Futures game this past weekend, a little overwhelming, but some pretty interesting prospect. You know, they pop up and then the draft. This is like the time of year. I've been doing some hits over here on CBS Sports HQ around the first and second round. And I'm excited to talk about these guys that maybe the feel is a little bit different in than previous years. But, you know, once you like really start diving in and,

and getting under the hood on a lot of these players. You start to fall in love, but hopefully not too, too much. But I'm looking forward to talking about these guys. Yeah, remind everyone before we get into everything, just where they can find all your work, because I know you've got a lot going on right now between fantasy pros and everything you do with prospects. So remind everyone where they can find your stuff, man.

Yeah, Fantasy Pros, Monday through Friday show I've got called Leading Off. You can catch me there. Betting Prospect Videos and stuff like that. A lot of stuff I've always done here. Really, the Twitter handles the best. thing at Is It the Welsh? That's where you can find all my other stuff. Plus, I still have my Patreon in this league.com for my top 500 prospects, which the, maybe the most fun process of all of this, Frank, is as these guys get drafted, I put them on my top 500 and slot them in where and

who in between on my top 500, as well as my dynasty list. It all lives there at in this league.com. So I did not prep you for this at all, but you brought up the futures game. I just wanted to quickly. Was there any like takeaways? I know like it's hard. to have anything in a one game sample. I believe Cam Collier won the MVP of that game. He wound up hitting a home run. I think Emiliano Teoto threw like two perfect innings, and he has looked great as a starter to the season in the minors.

Was there any takeaways that you had from the futures game this past? Yeah, buddy. How about Tejoto? Teoto is close to you and I's heart because of the conversation with Triantos about Emiliano Tejoto, who worked in relief out here in the Arizona Fall League. You got to see him. We got to talk about. about him, you know, famously in our little world,

Triant just got like uncomfortable in his seat when I brought him up to him because he's like, oh my God, that stuff is nasty. And the craziest thing is the Rangers, as most developmental systems should do, they're keeping him as a starter. They haven't like made that move to go into relief. He has been a starter this whole year. He's been good. And I believe he's like the first pitcher ever to go two innings without giving up a hit

in the futures game. And he had two perfect innings. he didn't do anything like spectacular, but that's also what makes him like so unique. He just got a bunch of bad contact, a bunch of weak contact because he's got such crazy movement with the fastball. And in Dynasty,

he might be an elite closer or maybe he's going to be a starter. And, you know, who knows? I mean, we can see how these guys work. I also say Kyle Teal really stood out. I was really impressed with them. He had two doubles in that game. You saw kind of the all fields contact. He had this, not quite dribbly,

but just this, you know, bang over to third base, he turned into a double. He hit one towards the wall, which also fairly like Drew Jones kind of didn't just get to. But you also just saw like how he can get the bat in the zone make really good contact. I thought he stood out, a Cam Collier as well. Like Cam Collier's swing continues to look like Raphael Devers. And he's got kind of a similar body type, similar power. He's made really good strides this year. He was one of the youngest two years ago.

He had reclassified in that draft class. So it's like, he's still getting going. I thought Collier was good. Teal and Tejoto really stood out. A couple other names. Bryce Eldridge, I love. He just kind of snuck in there, had a hit. And Brendan Sprout with the Mets hit 99 on that fastball,

was breaking some bats. So those were a few of the guys. Again, it was a little underwhelming kind of the game overall. But, you know, just to get to see on display some of those guys was nice. Yeah, Kyle Teal, a catcher prospect with the Red Sox, Cam Collier, a third base prospect with the Reds and Brandon Sproat. I know someone, Scott and I have talked about, We do a five-minute FBT and five that comes out on Saturdays

where we talk about different prospects and stuff. And Sprout has been one of the biggest risers in terms of pitching prospects this season. So he's done a great job, and it sounds like he impressed there in the futures game as well. Let's jump right into the draft. And for anybody who sees this episode and thinks, well, I don't play in Keeper or Dynasty leagues.

I don't need to know about these players. Wrong. I think you do need to know because at this time last year, we were analyzing Paul Skeens. and Wyatt Langford, and look at what those two are doing already in the majors. So how about this too, Frank? Last year, Nolan Chanwell made it to the majors. He made it to the majors in the year he was drafted.

And there are, there's an argument that the top guy in this draft could potentially get to the, I don't think it's going to happen. But there's an argument that if there was a guy, the number one overall pick could be a player that you could and they could maybe throw in the majors just with his absolute presence and that team competing. How often do you see a team one of the best in the AL have the first overall pick? So I just wanted to add to your point, A, we saw a guy same year make it last year, and B, maybe it could happen again this year outside of the obvious skeins and whatnot that happened a year after being drafted. And before we get into the actual player analysis, I just want

to start with some macro level questions because the MLB draft. is a different beast. 20 rounds, you get players out of college and high school. There are weird financial politics that go into the draft. I'm not going to bore you with all that stuff. But all you need to know is that the MLB draft is very different than the NFL and the NBA draft. Okay, that's out of the way.

So macro level views, up top, is this draft as stacked as it has as previous year's draft? Like, how do you stack up the top, I don't know, I think the top seven or eight players in this draft? for all college players, how do those names stack up against, like, last year or previous years before that? No, I don't think it stacks up. I just have to kind of run through all of them. I mean, it could.

Like, we could look back on this and we're like, oh, this is, you know, the Jackson Holiday and the Drew Jones, they'll stunk, you know, they could end up not working out at all. And in hindsight could tell us. But I think, like, just staring it on paper, no, I definitely don't think it's like last year or a couple years ago, even back to, I always have that Bobby Witt, Adley Rutchman year, Andrew Vaughn, kind of stuck in my head. It doesn't quite stack up.

I think it's a tier of two, and then there's kind of like a 2B, and then after that I think you start having these kind of steady declines. I like a couple of the top pitchers, but I don't think they're even remotely close to comparing to having schemes. And by the way, also like Noble Meyer. You know, Noble Meyer was a guy that went off in the futures game. That was a high school pitcher there. The top high school pitcher dropped down to 24 in this draft.

So, no, I think the macro perspective is maybe, you know, the top three are relatively equivalent to the top three from last year. But then you start to get some steady falloffs and the depth isn't as big. So like from a dynasty perspective, having like a top like three pick is immensely immensely valuable. Having a top six is really good. And then you're starting getting into a space where it's like, you know, maybe you can consolidate for future years. I just don't love the class as much as previous ones. So the first eight picks of this year's MLB draft, they were all college players. And I feel like that is a little bit different than years past.

I mean, we usually have at least a few high school names that are up there right at the top. And there were some taken inside the top 10 or 15 of this year's draft. And we'll get to those a little bit later on. But as a result of all these college names, can you see these players moving quickly through the minors, maybe even more so than, you know, previous year's drafts? I definitely think it's a possibility. If you look at, okay, if you want to talk about like who's going to move up and then you look at like who's competing, there are two teams. Well, I mean, even if you want to like throw the reds in there, there are three teams in the top six that are being competitive to the like that you can really throw in the guardians and the royals.

And they both took college, kind of advanced college bat. So yeah, I could see those guys moving quick. The A's took a kid named Nick Kurtz who, I mean, that guy is like 20% Woff. great, super polished. I mean, they could move up. So yeah, I think the story behind this definitely gives you this like, yeah, these guys could all move up. But I think there's one or two that could move up quicker than expected in Caglione and Bazana. And then I think the rest of these, they're in like a yearish timeline, depending what happens with injuries or whatnot. I think how these guys drafted, Hagen Smith or the White Sox, all of these players should be on probably

like a 12-month timeline. So this time next year, I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking about at least half of these guys in the majors this time next season. All right. Last question before we get into the actual players.

Is there a Paul Skeens or a Wyatt Langford at the top of this year's draft? There's not a Paul Skeens. The top two, they're definitely not that. I love Chase Burns, who I know we're going to talk about. He's like a stuff monster.

It's just going to be about like big consistency. And then you have, like, Hagen Smith, who I think is really consistent, but like, is his stuff going to play? Lance Prasowski had this really great video talking about both of these guys and how, like, Hagen Smith really thrives off of in-zone misses. And that's not something you want to rely that much on in the majors, unless you have absolutely blow away stuff like Paul Schen's. And some could argue maybe Hagen Smith does. So I say all of that to say, like, Paul, outside, this time last year, everyone was like, a vertical break, a shape on Paul Schen. and it looks so stupid now. And I know there's still people

that are playing that that he's going to backtrack, but like that was the excuse. These aren't the same things that we're arguing with these pitchers to Paul Skeen. So I don't think we have a Paul Skeens. Do we have a Wyatt Langford?

I think Bazauna could be that guy. I don't think that Condon or Caglione will be. I think they maybe could be, but Wyatt Langford came out the gates. I think Bazana actually shares some of the characteristics. So I guess I'll say, yes, we could have a Langford.

No, we are not going to. have a skeins. All right, quick reminder of the programming schedule for the rest of this week. Something's changing because we know it's an all-star break. But tomorrow, Scott Chris and I will all be live on CBS Sports Network at noon Eastern Time. Chris Towers, by the way, not that. I just don't want to confuse people. I'm talking to Chris now, usually talking to another Chris. But yes, tomorrow, Scott, Chris Towers and I will be live on CBS Sports Network at noon Eastern Time. You can watch on the CBS Sports app or on your cable provider. We'll make a fantasy baseball all-star team from the half. We'll talk trade deadline, some bold predictions for the second half and more. It'll be a lot of fun.

On Wednesday, we will record a redraft of the first two rounds for the rest of the season. And on Thursday, we will preview the following week of action because there you go. Boom, we're right back in it. Friday, the second half of the season starts. And there you go, the end of the All Star break. Let's take our first break. And when we return, we'll get into the actual names that were drafted at the top of the MLB draft. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in and let's break down some of the top names drafted in this year's MLB draft. And just a heads up, this is as much a learning experience for me as it is for everyone else who's listening. So I am really depending on the Welsh year to teach me about these players. Because admittedly, I don't watch college baseball.

Like I just, I don't have the bandwidth. I obviously am following Major League Baseball as closely as I can. And, you know, I follow some other sports, basketball, football and all that stuff. But yeah, I just don't have the wherewithal. I don't have the bandwidth, so yes, this will be a learning experience for all of us. The Guardians had the first overall pick. And in case anyone's wondering how they got the first overall pick in this draft, they won the MLB draft lottery with just a 2% chance of earning the top pick.

So good for them. Tanking is bad and let that be a lesson to you, Miami Marlins and Chicago White. Do you like the lot? I hate the lottery. I hate the lottery in fantasy leagues and dynasty leagues. I hate actual lotteries. I hate it. but don't you also hate tanking?

Like what is the, what's the good in between, right? Like, where do you meet in the middle? Because I feel like should you just be allowed to tank and it just goes in order of reverse standings and the worst team gets the first pick? Should it really be that way? Yeah, I think so.

I mean, also because everybody all the time, all they do is cry about competitive. You know, it's more of an issue. It's more of an issue what the, Marlins or the raise due and having absolutely no payroll. That's more of an issue. They should have a cap to low payroll what you're allowed to not spend. That's more of a problem than it is this. Because if you're talking about teams being competitive and you wanting parity, there's the, I mean, here's a good thing of the Rockies. They're always going to stink and they

stink for a long time. They can't bring free agents in there. No one wants to go play there. So they have to draft. Thank God they got the guy that they did. We're going to talk about. But there are plenty of teams. You know, people want to go and play for the Marlins to live in Florida, but they don't get any big free agents. So you want to have parity in it. You want to make sure you can get talented players spread around. This is just my feeling. I know there's some people like it. I just hate this like, all right, here's these fun little thing, think, think, thing. Okay, here's the team. And it's like, no, I want it to go by record. And I, you know, let the horrible A's have the first pick and let them take Travis Bazzana and maybe he can change the face of the organization.

it's just a personal thing. I know everyone's weird about it. I just hate this luck factor, and this is going to make the whole competitive. No one cares. The teams that are still tanking, they're just going to still want to tank because they have a higher percentage

at getting that pick. So I don't think it changes anything. It just creates some stupid parody. And then the Guardians who are like the best in the AL right now have the number one overall pick. Yeah, I mean, that's why I think it's kind of crazy that people might be wondering, well, how did this happen? So I get that aspect of it, you know, the luck factor and all that.

just, you're right, tanking is bad, but you know, we still do see it in other sports, right? Like, NBA teams still tank, even though it's a lottery. So I don't know. Did this really stop it? Like, does a lottery really stop tanking? Probably not. You're right about that, but I just hate the tanking aspect of it. I don't know what the answer is, but it's probably not a lottery either.

Anyway, let's talk about the Guardians who selected second baseman Travis Bezana out of Oregon State. First overall, he was the first second baseman ever to be drafted. First overall, 21 years old, actually a native of. Sydney, Australia, and this year in college, he hit 407 with 28 homers, 16 steals, known mostly for his hit tool, but obviously has some power, some speed. Welsh, how do you project someone like Travis Bazana and is he number one in your first year player draft rankings? Yeah, so I've gone back and forth. And I'm going to tell you right now, because we're going to look at my first year board in a little bit. I think the biggest debate will be between one and two. I have moved

Bazauna as my number one. I had Condon there. And I moved Bazaana there, even after Condon went to Colorado, and that's going to be the big thing everybody's going to kind of talk about here. But it's everything underlying with Travis Bazzana. So forgive if anybody has heard me say this in a couple other spots. I said this on CBS Sports HQ on night one of the draft. But one of the big questions, I think, because like, there are so many extreme, extreme good things about Travis Bazaana, you got to, you know, poke holes. Like, where can we find the oddities? One oddity is this. power output. And the thing I'd been mentioning is 28 homers this year is more homers than his previous

college seasons, Cape Cod League appearances, and three years playing in Australia combined. The 28 homers he hit this year, more homers this single season than he had since he was 15 years old. So that could be a question where people are like, what is this all about? Is this heavily weighted into the metal bats? Well, I mean, I think his swing is phenomenal. He's got this, he lets the ball travel a little bit, but he's got insane bat speed, and he has an upper trajectory to his swing. He brings it up, a little bit different than we're going to talk about J.J. Weatherhold, who J.J. Weatherhold does something similar, but I feel like he comes across his body,

like Corbyn Carole. Travis Bazana explodes on the ball. So some of the underlying stats with him, 96.1 average exit velocity in college baseball this year. That's an elite number. I mean, the numbers look bigger because of metal bats and stuff. That's the elite number. Only a few guys had higher than him. 41.1% barrel percentage. That was the best barrel percentage among college bats in the first round by a wide margin.

Then he threw on top of it, lowest chase rate among all of the guys at 13.9%. And he doesn't get eaten up by sliders, 13% misrate a slider percentage. For perspective, that slider percentage, I think it is either Caglion. I'm trying to look for it. right now. It's Charlie Condon. Charlie Condon had a 33% slider miss percentage. Bazana's just 13%. So I'm just building this all to say like, hey, listen, this is a guy that runs. This is a guy that doesn't chase. He gets on base. He hit for massive power. So if you don't want to be like, oh, okay, you know, it's metal bats and blah, blah, blah, and split issues,

and you just say he just put it all together this year and he barreled the crap out of the ball. and he got the ball in the air with big bat speed. He also doesn't strike out. What are we talking about here? And he's in the middle infield. He's going to be a second baseman. There are a lot of positive to talk about Condon, but in my mind,

you look at those underlying things and you go, okay, maybe the metal bats will taper down a little bit. But if he's a 280 hitter, 20, 20, he's hitting two behind Stephen Kwan and in front of Jose Ramirez, the guy's going to get on base. He doesn't make bad decisions. And the last thing, I know you guys have probably talked about it, the Guardian Stadium, home stadium, they took out that panel out in right field.

And there's kind of this like wind tunnel. Balls are flying more on the left-handed pole side. Pisana's a left-handed hitter. Bezana's a left-handed hitter. Kwan is hitting more homers. You've seen it with Ramirez. I love everything about it. And I kind of don't care about the home ballpark factor making condent up where I think

Bazana's like the number one guy. So if I had to pick a guy to be Langford, I think it's him. Langford runs. He doesn't, you know, wasn't striking out like crazy, gets on base. Bazaana does all of that. He can pull the ball in the air in a pretty friendly environment. And what if this team says, we got this guy in college who's super advanced. We need some help. You know, in the middle infield, we need a bat to fly. There's a scenario where this team could bring him up in September for a playoff run. I don't think it's, I don't think it'll happen, but I don't think it's ridiculous. So my mind, Bazaana has moved to number one. Apologies, I was a big old rant, but I do think Bazana does deserve it because not only is he one or two,

the debate people are going to go back is between one and two. Well, let's talk about that debate because Charlie Condon went third over all the Rockies. It looks like maybe they finally have gotten something right, we think. But a 21-year-old outfielder out of Georgia, big dude, six foot six, massive power to all fields, hit 433 with 37 home runs and OPS over 1,500 at Georgia this year. and he will eventually call Corsefield home, unless he's traded, which I don't think anyone thinks that's going to happen,

but this feels like a match made in heaven for fantasy. What's the differentiating factor here between Bazana being one and Condon being two? Is it just the difference that like Condon's not going to run at all? What do you think? Well, I think it's some of that. And you're right. Like I had multiple people in the industry,

and I don't blame any of them because I had Condon number one a little bit ago. That said, if he were to go, quote, if he were to go to Colorado, he's the hands down number one. Yeah, don't blame it. He might be a 40 home run hitter. Huge numbers last year, the 37 homers, absolutely ridiculous. Interesting when you watch him. There's been some comps to Chris Bryant,

but sometimes Chris Bryant makes things look a little bit tougher. I actually think he just plays well inside, you know, like right in his stance and at bat. He plays to lower zone stuff. He can make solid contact in the upper zone. but for the good and the bad here for Condon is he was a second worst against sliders among the first round guys, just 33%. So what that means is like we have troubles with off speed secondary stuff. The positive is not only did he have the best of those guys, 111.8th, 90th percentile exit velocity.

So that is taking the top 10 percent of his biggest hits and the average out is 11.8. That's the best of all of them. That's a phenomenal number and all that embraces to everybody. Boy, hits the ball really hard. He also, this is the thing that really could be a differentiating factor because I think there are some big strikeout issues. He had an 88.7% contact percentage versus high velocity, 92 or higher. That's one of the best contact percentages against that high velocity.

So when I read that high velocity, think of upper zone stuff, guys throwing big fastballs high in the zone. and he has flick of the wrist power. So if he's not chasing and he gets with fastballs, you throw him up in the zone, he's going to put him out. I think he's going to put him out. I legit think 35, 40 home run power

is totally within reason. Your questions are going to be how much is the process of learning between secondaries and fastballs and how much he's not going to see fastballs? What kind of effect is that going to have on him? And then the only other little thing is it doesn't really steal. I have heard a lot of, of good stuff about his actual athleticism as far as running and maybe he can steal more.

He's a big boy, six foot six. That hasn't been a part of his game. Maybe it starts to be a tiny bit. But for me, it's like, all right, if you want to build floors, do I want the 240 hitter, 35 homers, a handful of stolen bases, good RBIs, no good runs in Colorado? Or do I want the guy that's going to hit close to 300, 2020, with probably 100 runs scored and probably 80 RBI? Like I like the floor and ceiling of Bazana over. I like this massive ceiling of Condon. But there are going to be people, again, that are going to be able to make the case to say, hey, listen, I'm not really worried about the swing and miss.

And if that's not a problem, then all of a sudden maybe he comes, you know, Austin Riley or something like that. It's just an awesome destination. Colorado, home splits, totally help dudes. These are the top guys. And I think everything I said is on the positive of Condon will be the reasons why people have him number one. I kind of like floor sometimes, especially. with a guy like Bazana, who I think is just kind of a freak,

and that's why I've got him at number one. All right, let's talk about the second overall pick, who was maybe a bit of a shock at the time. The red selected pitcher Chase Burns out of Wake Forest, one of three Wake Forest players to go in the top 10 picks of the draft. 21 years old, another big dude, 6'3, massive strikeout upside, 162 strikeouts over 82 and 2 thirds in college this year. He throws hard with a nasty slider,

but does have some issues with control. where have we heard this skill set before? I don't know. The team that he went to, Hunter Green, maybe something like that, the same organization that just developed Hunter Green and we see having a breakout season now. I was watching MLB Network.

They also made a comment to Dylan Seas, which I think based on a really big fastball and a really good slider, makes a ton of sense. But Welsh, what do you think about Burns and is he your number one pitcher in this draft? Absolutely. He is my number one. I love Chase Burns.

I like, and they talk about the fastball like Dylan Sees because he likes to play it up in the zone and it just, it just explodes. It's a big, big power fastball. 98, usually like, you know, the high end of where it's going. Lance Brousdowski had mentioned I want to give him credit for it. Around a 20 inch vertical break, it might. There's also a little like difference in like the college baseballs to minor league. So maybe that ticks down a little bit, but really good vertical break comes at a high angle.

That's also the Dylan Seas comp because it kind of comes over the top and that fastball can fly up. And it induced a whole. whole bunch of swing and miss, which you love. And then you compare that with a big slider. The difference, I would say, with Hunter Green, it took a long time for him to develop those secondaries with the fastball. And like, you already have really good shape and movement with Chase Burns, which Hunter Green, it just had high velo.

And then he's coming in with a really big moving slider. Lance had mentioned around 2,800 with the number he had on the spin. And it was like the number one singular whiff pitch in college, like a 64% swing and miss again want to point out Lance Brousdowski go and check out his video for some of those but slider a curve that he can throw and I would also just say it's a cool

organization to be in for pitching they've done a relatively good job Hunter Green was raw and some people believed wasn't going to work and they ended up moving slider over fastball Nicola Dolo has been really well it's not the Mariners but I think it's a solid organization

to help him develop I think he's got that Dillon C's type of stuff ballpark's not great. And I could see people dinging him for that. But there's a separator between him and Hagen Smith in my mind. And I've got Chase Burns in the top five of my first year player. I really like if you got, you can get that elite elite pitcher because I think after you get rid of the top four

hitters, I really think you can make that case for Chase, or top three hitters. You can make that case for Chase Burns to get the number one guy. And as again, a last thing for Lance here, as he had said, it's kind of stuff versus maybe polish.

And I like that statement because I agree what that is. And I'm going to go on stuff. And that's why I like Chase Burns. And correct me if I'm wrong, but the Red selected Red Louter last year who was also from Wake Forest, right? Yes. And he is, that's funny because he is kind of a results over stuff type of guy because he doesn't have a big power fastball,

sits in the lower 90s. He is a command wizard. Thank you for even saying that because that future rotation of a guy like Louder and Burns and Green and Lodolo, that's really dangerous. That's why it was really smart. And a lot of people were like, whoa, they just passed on Charlie Condon. And they went with the pitcher.

But it's like they just got that forefront of their rotation. And if one of those guys doesn't work out in Greener Lodolo, Rett Louder is, I love the compliment of having like a massive command-based pitcher with a guy that's got big explosive stuff. It's almost like, you know, Logan, Gilbert, or George Kirby, and then Luis Castillo. You know, Castillo will have some of the bigger stuff. I mean, I guess Gilbert has proved to have some of the biggest stuff, but Louder kind of lives maybe more in that world of command,

and then you have Burns that's going to come in and just try to blow people away, eight strikeouts. Hopefully not have all those Dillen cease games where it's like five earned runs and 10 strikeouts, but he might be, and it'll just be dependent on like where the command goes. And maybe to what you're alluding to, maybe he just, Brett Louder rubs off on him a little bit and they can kind of work through the command.

If you can get, if you could have those two mold, you might have the greatest pitcher of all time. You actually might have Paul Skeens. If you could just have Rhett Louder and Chase Burns, just become one. Yeah, and you mentioned that you have Burns fourth in your FYPD rankings. There are three hitters.

You mentioned there's a third hitter. We have not mentioned yet. He went sixth overall in the draft. Maybe the most fascinating player in this year's draft is Jack Caglione, a 21-year-old two-way player out of Florida. He has standout tools both as a hitter and a pitcher, though it sounds like most scouts prefer his left-handed bat over his arm. As a hitter this year, 419 batting average, 35 homers,

a 14-19 OPS at Florida. He also racked up over a strikeout per inning as a pitcher, though walks were a pretty big problem for him. I love the story here, Welsh. I love the potential for him to be a two-way player in real baseball. But do you think maybe that hype as a two-way player could lead to Caglione being overrated in fantasy? Yeah, it's possible.

I mean, the announcement of him being a two-way player was kind of a shock. We're like, whoa, they're letting him do it. again, this is something I've said a little bit. I don't mean to be tropey about it. But like I think a lot of teams have been doing this. The Giants have been my example to everybody that they have drafted two players. Like the Royals don't have any like track record of taking these two-way players and doing anything with them. The Giants are the most recent with Bryce Eldridge and Reggie Crawford.

But then they made them pick a position. And Reggie Crawford is now a full-time pitcher and Bryce Eldridge is a full-time hitter. That I would think that's kind of the similar thing. The only difference is he's a college guy. And he is a bit more polished and further along that, you know, You never know. Maybe he could play in the back end of a bullpen. Maybe they could want to go five. Maybe he could be an opener. You really don't know. But the bet here. So if he goes like number one overall, yeah, maybe that's overrated in a first year player draft. I still wouldn't kill it. But I'm betting on the bat. And he's like a freak. He's a, he's a freak hitter. Huge guy, six foot five, 250. He's kind of probably going to be a first base only. He gets the bat all through the zone. And he just gets like weird hits. Some of those. hits could have been pushed up a little bit because of, um, because of the metal bats. And that's kind of a question in general, like maybe metal bats push some of that power. But I'll leave you,

here's the good and the bad as far as some of the underlying stats on Caglione. The good, almost a 92% in zone contact percentage, which was one of the highest among all of those college bats. So you get the ball in the zone. Don't get the ball in the zone. He was making contact with it. He had a 11.7.90th percentile exit velocity. It's one of the best, which we had talked about like with Condon. And he had a 121 max EV. That was second best among those first round college bats, ridiculously metal bat type of thing. And here's the oddity.

I'm going to add one more good was he had like the lowest strikeout rate. It's like 8%. It's ridiculous. While having, here's the bad, a 38% chase rate by far the worst of any of these first round college bats and a 44% ground ball rate, which was near the bottom of all the first rounds. So I'm saying is, he can get on top of balls,

hit it into the ground, and he's got a bad chase rate, but it didn't equate in college to there being a big strikeout problem. I think there is a strikeout problem. And I think that's why you saw, like the top five teams pass on him. So this is like Condon,

ridiculous power, absolutely ridiculous power, with what type of chase and swing and miss issue is this going to be? be, he just has some college numbers that kind of pushed against it. But he's three. Those are those top three bats. I'm going to make the bet on. I don't care about the two-way player thing. Maybe it works out. I don't think that'll happen. He does hit triple digits, how to four ERA. We'll see. Possibility. But Caglon is a freak of a power bat. So Condon and him, if you want to

play the big homers, you play in a homer base league, those are the guys. I just worry a little bit about, like, in points leagues, those two could really stack up strikeouts where a guy like Travis Bazaana probably won't. I am rooting for Caglione as a two-way player because I love chaos, Welsh. And I would love for him to work out that way in terms of he turns into the slugging first baseman and then maybe an awesome closer or something like that, right? And then we have to figure out, well, how do we make this work for fantasy, right? Because look, if he turns into like a 30 home run hitter, most weeks you're probably

still going to use him as a hitter. But we got to find a way to get those saves work in as well. So I'm rooting for it. I hope it happens, man. That's actually a really good point. It would kill fantasy because you would never get access to it unless you'd have to make almost like a two-way position. You'd almost have to change utility to like utility slash two-way player.

So you get that access to them. But I want to see a team do that. In all this ridiculous conversation and this dismissal that every, they're like, oh, it's cute that you can play two positions, but we're going to pick one. I want to see that at one point where this guy comes in, he's the bat, and then you can get extremely, explosive one, especially guy like Caglione who can hit triple digits.

Give him a slider fastball. Get him in the ninth. He's a first base only guy, not like a super defender. He's probably going to be a DH for that team anyways. I would love for this to be it. And I want to see one of these teams do it, please. All right, let's take our final break. And when we return, we'll talk about some of the other top names drafted.

We'll do that right after this. Welcome back into fantasy baseball today. Continuing our recap of the MLB draft, at least the first round, some of the top names that were drafted just yesterday. And we will continue on with the fourth overall pick. The A-selected Nick Kurtz, a 21-year-old first baseman out of Wake Forest. Another physically imposing bat, 6'5 lefty with power to all fields. What's your thoughts on Kurtz?

Because, you know, we've seen other power-hitting first baseman like a Spencer Torkelson, like an Andrew Vaughn, albeit those guys are right-handed bat. So it's a little bit different. not really live up to expectations so far in your careers, in their careers. What do you think about Nick Kurtz? Yeah, I want to be dismissive because he's an A and like the A's black. But I mean, look at Brent Roker and Shailene Aller's. You know, we've seen some pretty interesting production.

I mean, Lawrence Butler just went off the other day. So, you know, they're doing something right. He actually reminds me of like an old classic. He's like the classic, did they get on base A's that are out there because he had a 28% walk rate in college. That's absolutely absurd. That's the highest of any of those guys. While like Bazana, really low chase rate. It's actually kind of similar.

It's probably a Wake Forest first base thing. Brock Wilkin did something similar. So high walk, really low chase rate, 85% contact rate against high velocity. And he had, again, good hard hit numbers like a lot of these guys, 111, 90th percentile EV 115 max. Only bad outside of the zone. So this is like, kind of like Wilkin, again,

like Wilkin has his hands inside. This is another one of those guys that outside of the zone it was one of the worst in the first round of college bats, 58% out of zone contact. So getting him outside of his space is going to be a problem. Maybe it manifests into like an Edward Julian type that could be out there. You know how like Edward Julian gets really picky? And then like you'd hope that's not going to happen.

And then he gets himself in bad counts. Kurtz does a better job of that. It has really good raw power. I think this is like a, this is a solid pick. Four? I don't know. I don't have them in my top five, a first-year player.

He's also an A and what's that going to be around him and how does that development look? But like from a skill set standpoint, probably going to be good for points leagues because he is not going to be a big strikeout guy, does have really big power? It's just going to be, does he ever become like a star?

I think he will become a very good fantasy player. Maybe it looks like a Brent Rooker, but maybe a Brent Rooker with a little bit more batting average. And we'll take that. We'll definitely take that. Again, that was Nick Kurtz. He was the fourth overall pick in the draft. He's number eight in a,

the Welsh's first year player draft rankings. Let's move on to the fifth overall pick. That was Hagen Smith, who is selected by the White Sox. He is a big old left-handed starting pitcher. Six-foot-3 operates in the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball, which plays up due to a deceptive delivery. His best pitch is a nasty slider that features sweep and depth. And I heard, friend of the show,

we mentioned already multiple times, Lance Brasdowski, on the MLB Network broadcast. He praised the White Sox's minor league pitching development, under Brian Bannister. So, well, Welsh, is this something that you have noticed as well? Does that factor in the back of your mind when considering that the White Sox just drafted another starting pitcher? Yeah, I think there's like a ton of positives.

The White Sox have, they've kind of reformed their whole minor league system. I loved what they did with essentially putting all of their good, close-ish, ready minor league pitchers at double A to work with Edgar Quiro. They're just like, you're all going to work together. You're going to get your stuff right. you know, did Drew Thorpe probably deserve to be in AAA way before the majors? Yeah. But they kept these guys all together and that's probably part of the development.

So yeah, I think this is a good landing spot. I'm not quite as big on Hagen Smith to two pitch pitcher guy. He does have a change up, but he only throws it to righties. So lefties, he's essentially a two pitch pitchers. That happens with some guys. But regardless of the point, he's still about a 90% fastball slider guy. And when I saw that and then you look how he throws, he actually reminds me. reminds me of Spencer Strider. He's got a similar release point even to like that little leg kick and like that

little hand flick that they do. I don't think it's as powerful as a fastball. But as Lance mentions, and I think this is really important, is Hagen Smith really lived off of in zone misses. So he's going to sit around the zone. He didn't get a lot of stuff happen outside of the zone. And that might equate to strikeout problems. If command goes, that could be an issue or if that fastball continues to just become absolutely ridiculous, then he could be a Spencer Strider. But in college, it's easier to whip a bigger fastball by guys. He had a 40% swing and miss on the fastball, 95 mile per hour with pretty good IVB. And that sweeper gets a lot done with it.

But like in zone contact makes me a little bit, you know, like wishy-washy about it. And two pitch pitchers just in general, I don't like fall in love with them. But it's a great pick. And their development might push things. And lastly, it's really. reading between things, you go and get a pitcher like Hagen Smith when you have one of the best pitchers in baseball and Garrett Crochet and you're trying to justify trading them. Maybe Hagen Smith gives them a more comfortable move to trade him off in a hitter based trade and get a

couple big hitters and then they can finalize their rebuild process because now you would have Hagen Smith and Drew Thorpe and Hiroiriririo and Nick Nistrani and maybe one other guy they get and then get a couple bats to come over. Then it all kind of makes. sense, but he definitely has front line starter ability. It's just going to be about what and how they develop those two pitches and maybe something else to throw to righties besides like a little bit of a change up. Let's drop down a little bit to seventh overall. The Cardinal selected JJ Weatherholt, a 21-year-old shortstop out of West Virginia, a left-handed bat with one of the best hit tools in the class. Hits line drives to all fields. Excellent pitch recognition, barely swings and misses.

He does have some pop, but definitely offers more speed. He had 36 steals in 55 games last year at West Virginia. Welsh, how do you project J.J. Weatherholt for fantasy long term? I think he's kind of like a baby version of Bazana. Like that's kind of how I look. He's just, you know, Walmart version, if you want to call it like that. And there were rumors, by the way, if anyone paid attention to it, I lost money on it, that the betting odds changed about like two hours before the draft.

For J.J. Weatherholt was minus money to be the number one overall pick. Wow. because the Guardians might have been looking to save some money. He might have taken a haircut. Pisana wanted a lot. And I think them and maybe some other teams would have felt like, oh, this is a guy that provides a lot of the similar skill sets. And ultimately it didn't happen.

And he kind of fell a little bit because I think other teams were just placed in with what they want. But yeah, I think there's some really good stuff. The power is a big question. But he did have a 95.4 average X velocity in college. That was better than Jack Caglione. So that's good. Good contact rates. 13% or 14% chase rate and a 10% K percentage.

Those were some of the best. But I do think the power is going to be in question. And this is hilarious. We're talking about him here because of me. But his swing reminds me of Corby and Carroll. He's got kind of this like front load that steps in and he gets his hands across. To me, this looks just like Corby and Carroll. And we know the deficiencies of Corby and Carroll right now.

We do know that Corby and Carroll is some of the best bat speed in baseball. We also know he has not been able to get, maybe because of his shoulder, get the ball up and start lifting out. I don't think that JJ Weatherholt has maybe that same ability that he really wants to take stuff out because he's got more of a, I think it all fields contact approach.

But could he hit 15 and steal 30? Yeah. Could he hit for high average? Yeah. And he doesn't do a whole bunch of chasing and striking out. That's pretty good. He might kind of be a steal. I've got him, I think, at six or five in my list right now.

I just think the maybe the big fantasy upside is missing a little bit, but maybe it will be unlocked. Cardinals are pretty good organization. Yeah, JJ Weatherhole, you have fifth overall in your first year player draft rankings. Let's talk about the player who you have six. So I'm going to bounce around a little bit in terms of the order of when these players were taken in the MLB draft. But somebody who it looks like you're high on is Brayden Montgomery, who was selected 12th overall by the Red Sox, a 21-year-old outfielder from Texas A&M. This is the first switch hitter that we've talked about so far today. He hit 322 with 27 homers and 1187 OPS this year in college ball.

You have him sixth overall. As I mentioned in your FYPD rankings, what do you like about Braden Montgomery? I love the power. Now, I do think he's volatile. Like, there's a lot of potential swing and miss and a lot of big power. So the good 98.7 average X velocity,

that my friends was number one. That's a ridiculous number. That's his average X velocity. He also had a 34% barrel rate. I told you, Bezano's was 41. So that's elite. But here's the bad. 74% contact rate well below average,

28% chase rate below average and 49% out of zone contact percentage. Like those are not great numbers. I don't know if you could speculate a little bit. He broke his ankle. And that was a big question about maybe he fell. I think it would be weird for teams to be like, oh, he broke his ankle. So we're going to have him fall.

I'm not sure that that's quite the thing. But he does kind of scream like a 30% K percentage guy. he had a 20% K percentage in college, which is quite a bit higher than a lot of these other guys. So that, to me, kind of screams like, you might be 30%. So you got to understand that risk because the upside could be massive. His home run potential might be through the roof. So I really like the bat of Braden Montgomery. And that's what I'm betting on.

Hopefully Red Sox, who've done a really good job, by the way, like David Hamilton, a lot of weighted vest work. Like they've been doing a lot of work with hitters recently that they are going to be able to help temper some of those things. You know, Duran has cut it. I think this is a great organization for him to be in. All right, before we get into your first year player draft rankings, there is one other player I just want to ask you about

because I know you don't have them in your top 25, and he's another one that's just fascinating. Geranzlo Sancha. So a switch pitcher, that's right. You heard that right. He went 15th overall to the Mariners. I have no idea how you project a switch pitcher. But again, fascinating.

And he went to an organization that has done a really, good job in terms of developing pitching over the past years. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller. Yes, while the strikeouts have fluctuated. Overall, the results have been pretty good for Bryce Miller as well. Welsh, how do you handle a pitcher like Gerangelo Sancho Sancha in Dynasty Leagues? Well, first, his last name is Ruff Sinscha. Thank you for saying that that one I really struggle with. Yeah, he's an ambidextrous pitcher. That's like crazy. He can use both. You'll have a specialty glove where from pitch to pitch. from batter to better, he can change and he can. And I think that's going to continue. That's like

the craziest thing where you look at Jack Hague Leon and you're like, man, two-way player. I don't know. This looks like something that they can do. He's better from the right side. It's a much bigger fastball. The fastball sits in the low 90s from the left side. I do think like the the action he has on the sliders is really interesting because right side it's got like maybe a little bit more bite where from the left side it has like more sweep. I don't know. You take an ambidextrous pitcher that's got a fastball that plays from both hands and sliders that play from both hands and put them on the best organization in the Mariners.

I think his downside is going to be reliever. And if I'm being honest, he's a little smaller like five foot 11 that the path for those guys to, you know, move into a starting role is it's tougher. I think he screams like a multi-inning guy, maybe even a closer. Can you imagine he can just switch hand-to-hand? You don't, like, he's awesome from that perspective. They'll work him out as a starter, and we'll see.

But like Ryan Sloan, who they took later, who is probably going to be one of the biggest overslots in the later rounds, I think he is a maybe better projectable starter. So D'rangelo is fun, probably going to be overrated in fantasy leagues. But I would take a stab if he does be able to develop as a start. because it's the frickin Mariners, man. And he is the coolest story of an ambidextrous pitcher. I'm super excited to see how it translates.

And out here in Arizona, I frequent Peoria. All I want to get is to the backfields and watch him do it. That'll be my favorite video I've posted probably in years if I can get him doing it. And if you're looking for the name, again, it's kind of a tough name to spell here, but C-I-J-N-T-J-E. So it's St.C-J.

That's how it's pronounced. And very interested to see. where he goes moving forward with the Seattle Mariners. Let's get into your way too early top 25 first year player draft rankings for Dynasty leagues. And the top six, we've already kind of touched on all of these in order. It's Travis Bazana, Charlie Condon, Jack Caglione, Chase Burns, J.J. Weatherholt, and Braden Montgomery.

And if we look into the next six, which will round out the first round of, you know, if you're playing a 12-team league, we have Bryce Rainer, a shortstop who got to drafted by the Tigers, Nick Kurtz, who we mentioned a first baseman with the A's, Christian Moore, a second baseman with the Angels, Hagen Smith, the starting pitcher with the White Sox, Connor Griffin, a shortstop with the Pirates, and Trey Yassavage, a starting pitcher with the Blue Jays. A couple names on here that we haven't mentioned Welsh, and really we haven't talked about high school players at all, but there are two high school players in this group, Bryce Rainer

of the Tigers and Connor Griffin of the Pirates. What do you see with the skill sets from those two teenagers? Yeah, it's just not like last year. It's not Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. And they're not going to rank kind of close to that range. I personally love Bryce Rainer. And this is one of those where like you do your own work. You go through the process. And you're like, oh, this reminds me. And then you go to reports. And then everyone's saying the same thing. You're like, well, now I don't want to say it. But I have to say it. As I watch Bryce Rainer, I'm like, oh, this looks like Corey Seeger. And it's because he's a six foot four, you know, 200 pound shortstop that's going to continue to develop. He's kind of has a similar approach where, you know, Corey will kind of sit hands inside, back up and then explode and kind of lower his body. So like there's similarities there. So I really like Bryce Rainer.

He hit 505 in high school this year. He had 28 walks to 14 strikeouts. This is over 33 games. He only hit four homers, but still 16 bases. That big kid, if he can steal some, I think there's massive power to unlock.

Connor Griffin was kind of perceivably the number one guy. Here's two sides. his bat has questions. Will he be able to tap into power? Is he going to be able to tap into like consistent contact? The kids sold 87 bases last year in high school. That's like Max Clark, what Max Clark did. But I don't think he has the same ability to make contact like Max Clark.

So I've got him dramatically lower. So those two guys, it's fun to dream definitely on these players. I just like Bryce, it will be more popular for Griffin to go higher. But I think Bryce Rainer's got a lot of upside. Just a huge physical. There's a lot of players that might be lacking projection. And, you know, when you play proximity, do you care about projection? Just give me a guy that's going to get up close.

But I play in a lot of leagues, deeper leagues, longer term, where I'm not just thinking about the proximity. Bryce Rainer is one of those guys like, I could see Bryce Rainer being Aden Miller. You know, and Aidan Miller kind of tapered back when he got pushed up. But like Bryce Rainer in a year or so from now could be like a top 25 overall prospect with his upside. So I really love Bryce Rainer out of this list. Christian Moore is someone we haven't talked about yet. He's ninth overall in your rankings here. And he was drafted by the Angels.

He's the second basement. I was watching the draft. This kid is put together. He looks strong. College bat out of Tennessee. Sounds like power is his best asset. What do you think about Christian Moore? Yeah, I got to tell you,

Christian Moore is the one that might move up this list. You guys got to remember too. This is the draft has just ended. This is like my pre-work to the draft has ended. Slotting things change. I had Chase Davis really high last year. And not that we should, like necessarily care about like the results and stuff like that early on.

Things are going to change. But my immediate one is like continue to stare at this. I'm like, I just love Christian more. And I don't know if I'm going to keep him down. He said in his interview, Xavier Struggs interviewed him. And at the end,

he was like, I'm going to have a ring because winning is in my blood. And he was like super intense about it. Like this is a dude with some super intense baseball skills as well. Great, you know, not to just do all these numbers all the time, but it's like really good average EVs, great max EVs,

doesn't put the ball in the air, had a 15 degree launch angle. Lower contact versus higher velocity will be a question, but dude hit for the cycle. He can play multiple positions. He had 30 plus homers. Like, there's so much to love about Christian Moore.

Totally cool. I think you start to get into tears. If someone was like, hey, I'm taking Christian Moore 5 over Weatherhold, that's fine. I might put him there, to be honest with you.

I love, love him. And angels are wild cards, man. Could be up tomorrow. Christian Moore might just take a flight straight to L.A. and start playing. Yeah, I mean, that was my next question is how much does organization kind of factor into your rankings here? Because let's be honest, it's not like the angels are regarded as like a really good development org. So how does that kind of factor in with someone like Christian Moore? Yeah, that's kind of like maybe the separator.

You know, like there's super high floor with a guy like Weatherhold. I think Braden Montgomery's skill set can be even fixed a little bit in the Boston Red Sox. organization. So like that plays in Kurtz, another one of those guys like, you know, Kurtz has just got such high, a high floor. It's a little bit of a wild card with Christian Moore. Christian Moore might become the most fun out of this. He might, we might look back and we're like, what were we thinking. But yeah, the organization definitely plays a little in like, oh, well, I'm not sure what they're going to fix. They're just going to be like, go get him, kid and just move him on up the levels. And it's like, I don't know what he's going to learn

across the way. What works is national champion, you know, an advanced college bad, very smart kid, a lot working for, I love him. Like, I want to, he would be one of those guys where I'm telling you like, oh, if I don't have a top four or five pick, I'd be trading down. I'd love to trade like down to somehow get Christian Moore. If I had like the six pick and I can move down to eight and I could get Christian Moore and something else, like I don't think the separators are that big between Weatherhold and Christian Moore.

Number 12, you have a Trey you Savage, a starting pitcher who was drafted by the Blue Jays. And I'm rooting for this kid solely Welsh because I'm already thinking about the macho man team. names that I can make out of this guy. The macho man, Trey Yassavage. Let's make that happen. I'm rooting for the kid. 20-year-old pitcher out of East Carolina. Another big guy, six-foot-four, has three different pitches that graded out at a 60, fastball slider and splitter. Sounds like somebody you like quite a bit as well. Yeah, I do. I really, really do. This is another one of those kind of a surprise. The two biggest surprises, because I don't know if we're going to talk about him. Trey Yassavage dropping the 20 and Cam Caminiti. Best high school pitcher. I freaking love it.

I think the Braves walking out of this draft with a steel. Those two guys falling was kind of unexpected. The cool thing about Yassavage is like the splitter sometimes can be an early onset of a guy that might be a little bit more advanced. And last year, who do we have? Herson Waldrop. And Waldrop has already made the majors. Wasn't super great. But his Savage has got a, you know, great fastball, mid-90s fastball that can touch higher velocities.

He's got a devastating curveball and a splitter. And it's funny, scouts can't decide what they like. They did a really great interview with him at the draft. They're like, what are Scouts telling you? Like, what's the best pitch? And he's like, some really like my splitter is my number one. Some say my curveball. There are some that I think people moved a little bit away from saying his fastball.

But I love the three pitch mix for a guy that's running a splitter. You know, my little critiques of Imanaga has been like, it's just fastball splitter. This is fastball curveball splitter. I like having those variants and all plus pitches. His Savage might end up being like a massive steal. 13 to 18 in your first year player draft rankings, you have Slade Caldwell who was drafted by the D-backs, Cam Cam Cammanyi, who was drafted by the Braves,

James Tibbs drafted by the Giants, Seaver King who went to the Nationals, Cam Smith, who went to the Cubs, and Vance Honeycutt who went to the Orioles. I'll give you the opportunity to talk more about Caminiti. He's actually the cousin of Ken Caminiti, and Cam was the first high school pitcher drafted in this draft. He went 24th overall to the Braves.

He's a 17-year-old, years old, a lefty with big upside. It's so hard to project any pitchers. prospects, but I mean, especially high school pitchers, it's just like, so much can happen over the next like three to five years that you just have no idea. But the one thing that we can say for certain, the Braves have done a pretty good job with their pitching development. So what do you think about Cam, Caminiti? Yeah, it's an absolute steal. I mean, look at Noble Meyer. Noble Meyer was like the top high school arm and how high he went last year. And then Cam Falls. Now, you could say that's the big separator in the industry. I'm not so sure. Kim in 80, nine and no in high school, state championship.

a 0.9 ERA and struck out over a hundred batters. It's a 70 grade fastball. He's got a good change up, curve slider, and he's in a great organization that can mess around, that can work with his stuff, and they'll move guys up. I don't know if you can make a massive argument that Caminetti is, like, super advanced,

but A.J. Smith-Shavar made the majors at 20. I'm not saying they want to keep doing this, but, you know, if Caminetti shows off that good control early on and shows you three plus pitches, they're just going to keep moving them up the organization. So like Noble Meyer last year, even though I was like blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. He was around like, what, 12, 13, 14

and a lot of other players first year drafts. Then he started moving up the ranks and ranks. And now Noble Meyer is top 10 SP in fantasy right now. I think Caminetti could take a similar path in a better organization with the brave. So I'm super excited about Caminetti. One other name on this list, Siever King, 16 in your rankings.

He was actually drafted 10th overall. by the Nationals, first off. I mean, 80 grade name, Seaver King, that's awesome. And he was the other Wake Forest player that was drafted in the top 10. Obviously, no more for his hit and his speed. Not too sure about the power.

What are your thoughts on Sever King? Yeah, this one's a little debatable. Actually, Joe Pizap and I were kind of debating this one. He felt higher on Sever King. I think it's just like, I don't know what type of physical body projection is there to rebuild up the power. It's not a power bat.

good contact. He's a good runner. He's a really good defender that can move around. There's a part of me that thinks like maybe this is going to be like a cool super util guy or a guy that you can move around. If he does, I mean, this is also like a college bat. So like I don't know how much his smaller frame is going to grow if he were to add like another 20, 25 pounds of muscle. And then maybe with the way he makes contact, he starts pushing up 20 homers. I think that changed the perception. But right now I think we're in like a space of maybe 10 to 15. you know, somewhere in that range and a solid hitter, a solid, I don't think any of them are advanced advanced tools.

So I'm a little different on the value of where he was drafted to where I would draft him in first year player. I'm open to it growing, but I'm just, again, I'm not sure. Like, I guess you've got to give credit to the Nationals and some of their development, but I really don't look at them as a great developmental team. And I don't know what that power is going to look like. But, I mean, look at C.J. Abrams, you know, guys that what, buck 75 wet, and he's just crushing and smashing Homer.

So there might be something in and how he has developed. And guys like Brady House, that'll make it better. And he could move up boards. I could definitely see him going in the first round of like Roto first year players. 19 to 25 in your first year player draft rankings. Theo Gillen, a shortstop drafted by the Rays.

PJ Morlando, an outfielder drafted by the Marlins. Carson Benj, an outfielder drafted by the Mets. Ryan Walschmidt, an outfielder drafted by the Dvaks. Brodie Brecht, a starting pitcher drafted by the Rockies. Tommy White, a third baseman drafted by the A's, and Kalin Colpepper, a shortstop drafted by the twins. To my knowledge, I tried looking at it up. No relation to Dante Colpepper, right?

No, not that I know. Not that I know. That would be cool. Yeah, no, I looked it up before and I couldn't find anything, so. I don't think so. And also, Ryan Waldschmidt being drafted by the debacks, like, Paul Goldschmidt. Bogman literally texts me that. He's like, who's this Goldschmidt clone that just got drafted? And I actually missed it.

I was on HQ as the pick. happened and I was like, oh my God, we got Waldschmidt. Yeah, no, it is a very funny compliment. I mean, all of the, like, Homerism aside, like Slade Caldwell was a player. If anyone looked at my ranks, I had top 12 before. So I was ecstatic when the dimebacks took him, took him. And then Waltzschmidt's another one of those really, him and Carson Benj, they're like not these star outfielders, but they're these guys that could end up being 20, 20, 15, 15, 15, good solid contact. Like, there is upside. Walt Schmidt was an. issue in college. Benj, kind of the same thing. I think these are both really solid second

round first year picks where you're building in some upside. You know, Diamondbacks, like Jack Hurley had a lot of fun stuff last year and he hasn't really developed, but like Walt Schmidt might be a guy that can even move faster in this. But Benj and him both kind of sit in this like, this is a solid range. I will tell you, not that you were necessarily asking here, but my favorite of this, it's so funny it happened because on my show prospect one, I had mentioned that PJ Morlando was a player that I think could push into the first round. And just for perspective, I think he went 16 overall. He wasn't really being mocked a lot in the first round until about the last week or two.

And all of a sudden, he goes high. He goes six. I was a little bit, I was taken back. Whoa. Peter Melando going this high. But this is one of those guys who absolutely showed off last year in one of those high school home run derby contest. He has got tremendous bat speed, tremendous power.

And maybe the feel is that bat has taken a step up. This is one of those guys that was like, oh, he should be a first rounder. Then he fell off, wasn't in the conversation. And he came right back and went into the teen. So, Morlando is a guy that I have had higher probably than most people. And it just ends up working out where like, you know, I'll have a guy that I have way too high that goes lower. This is one that I was really high on and he went higher. And I think of people, I'll pay a lot more attention to.

So this is like, what do you care about proximity? Benj, Mike, Benge, Waldschmidt, those two are probably going to be your closest guys. But Orlando's got the best upside. And I think that's kind of where you should take the second round. All those guys you mentioned besides Gillen, it's all just like college, like Tommy White with the A's, Tommy tanks, you know, big power, Kaelin Colt. Like these are solid but maybe not stars.

Orlando has a potential to be like a star. And he is a high school outfielder and he was drafted by the Marlins. That's the one thing that gives me pause is like, the Marlins, you know, like who is the last... When's you're going to get traded? Who is the last hitter that they developed? I mean, you have to go back to,

Yelich Ozuna types, like a legit hitter that turned out to be really good that they developed within their system. But see, that's great. Then PJ Moldo can be awesome on like the Braves in five years or something like that. He'll be great somewhere else, which is exactly what you want.

Last question, I am giving you one chip. You can place this chip on any prospect. Who is going to be the first one to make it to the majors and when will it happen? Ooh. All right. I'm going to put that chip on. I'm going to put it on Bazaana. It's kind of boring. Sorry, that's super boring. I mean, I guess if I had a second chip, I could give you a different name. But I think Bazauna is the easy. I'm just kind of staring at this list too, the easy frontrunner for a guy that, for a team that's competing, that they would want to push him up. God, it actually really opens up after this, like Nick Kurtz, Christian Moore, maybe.

be weatherholt's blocked Montgomery with the injury. Caglione and Condon may need, like I think he walks away with being the first guy, but we do see pitchers a lot more. So maybe even Hagen Smith. I don't think it'll be Chase Burns, but maybe Hagen Smith beats him, but give me Bazaana for my,

for my one chip, my one chip challenge. You think he might be in play for like opening day next year? Yeah, yeah, I do. I think like, like I was asked like, could he make it this year?

And I always want to be dismissive about that. I do think there's this like tiny, tiny little baby chance that he could. But next year, Absolutely, especially if he has a good run. And I would leave you with this. This is what's going to make this year more interesting than ever. We usually have rookie ball, complex ball, where I live here in Arizona and Florida,

go all the way through August. And the draft guys come here. Wyatt Langford came here for three days. We saw some production. Then they move up. It ends in like a week. We will not have rookie ball through August. So what that means is teams are going to have to be aggressive with these rookies,

these drafted players and move them to A-ball, or they're going to send them out here and play what's called like these tricky leagues. It's essentially extended minor league spring training where they will play competitive games, but none of you will have any information. And we got information last year in Complex. We got information on Chase Davis, Wyatt Langford, Colt Emerson. We got that early. Brock Wilkin, all those guys started high school or college, starting complex for the most part.

Chase Davis actually went to A-Ball. Most part do. And then that gives us this like little bit of a play. placeholder for what their production is going to look like. This year with that, we don't know what teams are going to do. That might mean less of a sample size for us to work from from next year. And we're all going to have to kind of work through that together to see what that sample size looks like because we didn't have a big one with Walker Jenkins.

Matt, you know, like how big is that going to look? And it could affect some values to maybe having these lists that we're finishing right now. It might look closer to that next season as well just because of these track records. He is Chris the Welsh. Fantastic job teaching me, teaching everybody about these prospects in this year's draft. Make sure to follow him on Twitter at Is It the Welsh? And we are going to wrap there for the Welsh. I am Frank.

Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.