Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 Outfield Recap! Roki Sasaki Will Be Posted This Offseason! (11/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 12, 2024

Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will be posted this offseason (3:16)! ... What's his dynasty value (11:56)? ... What is the state of outfield (14:47)? ... The top two outfielders in Fantasy were Aaron Ju...dge and Juan Soto (17:12). ... Brent Rooker and Jarren Duran were two of the biggest breakouts this year (21:45). ... Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez still provide huge power (24:20). ... Corbin Carroll had a big second half and Teoscar Hernandez is a free agent (27:01). ... Jazz Chisholm turned up with the Yankees and Anthony Santander had a career year (34:13). ... Jackson Merrill and Brent Doyle were two other big breakouts (36:55). ... News (42:50): Ohtani's pitching is to be delayed in 2025. ... Jurickson Profar had a career year and Jackson Chourio went 20-20 (51:50). ... Julio Rodriguez is inconsistent while Bryan Reynolds is the most consistent (56:21). ... We wrap up with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki (59:18). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Back to position previews, and this time we're diving into the outfield. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, November 11th.
Starting point is 00:00:31 Tuesday, November 12th. Whoops. That's the day that we're recording. I am Frank Stample joined by Scott White and Chris Sowers. Today on the show, we'll be focusing mostly on outfield recap, but because it's such a massive position, we'll break it down into two episodes this week. So today we'll take a look back at the top 24
Starting point is 00:00:48 that finished at the position, and then save our early 2025 rankings for the next podcast. Scott, you were back. How is your week off? Did you do anything fun? I'm back. I had a lot of house projects that I did, stuff that I never have time to do during,
Starting point is 00:01:04 baseball season because I'm busy keeping up with daily baseball coverage yeah and you know chasing the kids around and all that I did I did a few fun things but not probably not fun to talk about just like again things I don't get a time to enjoy during the baseball season probably not as fun as I don't know Roki Sasaki being posted to MLB teams this offseason so before we even talk about the outfield. Let's just start with that because it feels like it's pretty big news. Chris and I kind of touched on Roki Sasaki last week and some expectations we had if he were to be posted and it sounds like that will indeed happen. So Roki Sasaki, 23 years old, a phenom in Japan,
Starting point is 00:01:51 starting pitcher, four seasons in Japan, 202 ERA, a 0.88 whip, 524 strikeouts over 414 and two-thirds innings, 11.4K per nine, two walks per nine. and because Sasaki is under 25 years old, he has not reached six years of service time in a foreign major league. He is subject to international bonus pool. So he will not be getting this massive Yamamoto contract. In fact, it'll be closer to what we saw Otani got
Starting point is 00:02:21 get back in 2017 when he signed with the Angels for just $2.315 million. So just to kind of give everyone an idea, like when you see this contract, it's not going to be that massive contract that we've seen from previous pitchers that came over from Japan. Scott, it feels like the Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite here. I mean, what are your thoughts on Roki Sasaki?
Starting point is 00:02:44 Where do you plan on ranking him for 2025 redraft leagues? Well, I know Chris wrote a big article kind of scouting him, and so maybe we should start with Chris, but I'll go ahead and give you my two biggest thoughts on Roki Sasaki since he started with me. First of all, really, really talented,
Starting point is 00:03:07 obviously. I've seen him hit, I've seen highlights of him pending 102 on the radar gun. He has a good splitter as is common for pitchers in Japan.
Starting point is 00:03:19 Really talented, somebody to be excited about. But I don't think, I don't want to get carried away. Because, as we'll talk about next week, as we start to go through the starting pitcher position, it is so deep.
Starting point is 00:03:37 As I was going through my rankings there, I felt like I was ranking everybody too low. So a lot of times there are certain years where starting pitching, you know, there seems to be the scarcity at the top. And so a newcomer comes along with a lot of talent, and we don't exactly know how to quantify it, but we need something to hope for.
Starting point is 00:03:59 and so we reach for him, we reach for the unknown, hoping to get the best case scenario. And I don't think we need to do that with Roki Sasaki. I would rather play it cautiously. I mentioned he's hit 102 before, but I was reading from Jeff Passon that last year, velocity was down across the board.
Starting point is 00:04:21 So is that something, he was coming back from an arm injury, as I understand it? So is that something that's going to carry over into this year might that impact the upside? There are reasons to wonder. Having said that, he's 23 years old. So, like, he's kind of just at an age where most pitchers are getting started. And there's a lot of development, I would imagine, still to come for Roki Sasaki.
Starting point is 00:04:45 So reason to be optimistic, I think, especially in dynasty leagues, but just given the distribution of talent at starting pitcher, I don't think it's beneficial to take. take a glass half full here, if a glass have full approach, if, if, if, um, if you'd normally be inclined to do so. Chris, you gave us a little bit of a taste last week on your opinion, some thoughts on Roki Sasaki. As Scott mentioned, you wrote an in-depth article kind of scouting him and maybe what to expect for this upcoming season.
Starting point is 00:05:17 So, uh, how would you summarize that article that you put out? He is, I think, one of the most exciting pitchers who has never thrown a pitch in major league baseball, maybe the most. Like, you know, I think you compare him as a prospect to like Andrew Painter, probably more proven than Andrew Painter because he has done it against not major league level competition, but a high level of competition. He's not coming back from Tommy John surgery. Like there's, if we're talking about players who have not established themselves as major
Starting point is 00:05:50 leaguers, I think Roki Sasaki is about as exciting as they come. However, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is, like Scott mentioned, he's coming back from, not coming back from an injury. He dealt with an injury last year. There was some kind of arm injury. I haven't seen any specifics on it. I think the reporting culture in Japan around sports is a little different than in America. So I'm not sure anybody has pinned down exactly what it was.
Starting point is 00:06:21 He also had an oblique injury. The previous year, he's only made 33 starts over the past two seasons. His fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 miles per hour in 2023 to 96.9 miles per hour in 2024. That's a two mile per hour drop. His strikeout rate dropped from 39.1% to 29%. So still really good. Still a better strikeout rate than Yoshinobi Yamamoto managed in any of his final three seasons in Japan. So really, really elite strikeout pitcher.
Starting point is 00:06:53 But the other thing you have to keep in mind is you'll look at his number. in Japan and see, whoa, he had a 235 ERA. That's incredible. That's, I mean, Paul Skeen's had a $1.99, but I don't think anybody else in Major League Baseball had a better one last year. League average was 315 in Japan. They are in the middle of like an all-time deadball era. And so when you go by ERA Plus, what you have is Rokie Suzuki in 2024, 129, which would
Starting point is 00:07:24 have been a top 10 mark among MLB qualifiers last. year, but not quite as impressive as 2.35 sounds. For context, Yoshinovo Yamamoto, his final three seasons, Japan, his worst ERA plus was 188. He had seasons of 250 and 272 ERA plus. You're talking about Yoshinovo Yamamoto was doing peak Pedro Martinez stuff in Japan. Roki Sasaki was doing, like, I don't know, Blake Snell stuff. Like he's good, but it's not the quite same level of production as what Yamamoto was doing. And then you have the injuries, the fact that he's never thrown 130 innings in a professional season, the fact that he has never thrown every fifth day instead of every sixth day like they do in Japan.
Starting point is 00:08:17 You have, we, you know, there's always an adjustment period for pitchers coming over from Japan because they use a slightly different baseball. I say it all to say this is a very exciting young pitcher who is much less of a sure thing than Yoshinobi Yamamoto was a year ago. And I think because Yamamoto came over last year, because he was so good, I know he missed a lot of time with injury, but pretty much lived up to expectations when he was on the mound. I think people are just going to, in their mental model, swap in Roki Sasaki for Yoshinob Yoshinaubi Yamamoto. and you should not do that because Yamoto was a, he won the Triple Crown three years in a row. I think he was the MVP three years in a row in Japan. Sasaki is not that yet.
Starting point is 00:09:03 I don't think we're going to see Sasaki rank like top 12. I don't think top 12, but I've seen a lot of people say top 15, and I just don't see the point. I can't even get Yamamoto in my top 15. And so I, I don't know, I get it. He's an incredibly exciting young pitcher. the splitter had a 57% whiff rate last season in a league that strikes out and swings and misses less than the majors.
Starting point is 00:09:29 Like that might be a legit plus plus pitch. The slider looks really good as well. But I think he's more Hunter Green than Yoshinova Yamamoto. And Hunter Green's early ADP, I think I ranked him SP 24. He's right around there in the early ADP that we have as well. I think in the 25 to 30 range is a reasonable point. place to rank Roki Sasaki. And I don't know if that is higher or lower than you expected based on everything else I said.
Starting point is 00:09:59 Because again, I think he's an incredibly talented pitcher. If I rank him 25 to 30, I feel pretty confident. I'm just not going to draft Roki Sasaki. It's a sort of thing where you hear 25 and 30 and based on past perceptions of what 25 to 30 in the starting pitch. It sounds a lot. It sounds too low. But I'm telling you when we go through starting pitcher, you find out some of the pitchers we have
Starting point is 00:10:22 ranked in the 25 to 30 range, you'll understand. Quick question on Dynasty rank, Scott. Does Roki Sasaki instantly become the number one player in first year player drafts for Dynasty leagues? A head of names like Travis Bazana, J.J. Weatherholt, and Charlie Condon. Those are typically the top three that I've seen. Oh, I've seen Roman Anthony up there. I've seen Matt Shaw up there.
Starting point is 00:10:44 No, no, no, just for first year player drafts. Oh, for first year player drafts. Okay, sorry. Well, okay, yeah. There's no question, right? I would say so. Yeah. But the point I was making, because I thought you were asking just top prospect overall, and I'm getting into prospect research right now that's what I'm going to be working on for the next few weeks. And my takeaway there is like the top of the prospect rankings are all over the play.
Starting point is 00:11:14 Yeah, it's pretty wide open. Yeah. One, two, three, four, five, you know? Yeah. And, yeah, so I could see, I think mainly that doesn't speak well of the current prospect crop. I think mainly that's what's happening. So I don't want to inflate the value of Roki Sasaki by saying this. But I don't think it would be crazy to put him at the top of the overall prospect list.
Starting point is 00:11:40 All right. Let's take our first break. And when we return into the outfield we go, we'll do that right after this. All right. let's take a look at the outfield position and a pretty unpredictable position. So instead of looking at ADP accuracy up top like I've done for other positions,
Starting point is 00:11:55 I picked out some of the biggest misses early on and some of the biggest hits that went later on in drafts. So some of the big misses, whether it was injury or performance related from last season, Michael Harris, Luis Robert, Adola Garcia, Mike Trout, Nolan Jones, some big hits at the position. Jaron Duran, Teoska Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Jackson Merrill, Brenton Doyle, Jirkson Profar,
Starting point is 00:12:16 Jackson Trio to name some of those. It feels like Outfield is in a much better position than it was just a year ago. And that's even with losing some of the likes of Brent Rooker, Kyle Schwerber, John Carlos Stanton, Masataka Yoshita, all of those players are now U-Till-only. Chris, give me one word to describe the state of Outfield right now. Deep. Deeper than it's been in a few years, at the very least. Did you want?
Starting point is 00:12:43 That was one word and then a few words. That's fair. I mean, no, that totally makes sense, Scott. Yeah, I think from the perspective, I'm not even going to give you a word, I think from the perspective of most fantasy leagues, it's going to seem deep. It's the second deepest hitter position after shortstop, I think, pretty clearly. But I don't want to go overboard with that description because it does drop off very quickly around outfielder 50 in my rankings, which, okay, we're pretty far down in the rankings.
Starting point is 00:13:16 he's at 50, but if you're talking to five outfielder league, even a 12 team five outfielder league, everybody needs 60 just to fill out their starting lineup. And of course, you have multi-eligible guys in there that's going to deplete the depth further. So in those five outfielder leagues and like standard roto leagues, you still want to be mindful of not waiting too long to fill your outfield. And it's not just theoretical because I had the same thought when we were doing our first mock draft a couple weeks ago. Yeah. And I am in a way too early NFBC draft. It's a 12-team draft and hold. So obviously, you know, you fill out your five outfielders, but the benches are really deep. You probably wind up with like 10 outfielders on your
Starting point is 00:13:55 team, just including bench spots. And yeah, I mean, once you get to a certain point, it's all just platoon players, guys that are free agents. You have no idea what their roles are going to be next season. So, yeah, there definitely is a pretty big cliff at the outfield position, the deeper you go, which I think makes sense. Let's get into the top 24 from this past season. I'll throw these in pairs. towards you guys so that we can break them down and keep things moving. But the top two outfielders from this past season, they came from the same team. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, also the top two and head to head points leagues, and it wasn't really close.
Starting point is 00:14:29 Aaron Judge has set this kind of new baseline for himself. He's hit over 300 with 58 plus home runs in two of the past three years. He's also played 148 plus games, three of the past four years. Outside of that toe injury in 2023, I think I feel pretty good about the health at this point in Aaron Judge's career. And then Juan Soto, career year in Yankee Stadium, 288, 419 on base, 41 homers, 128 run scored, a 989 OPS, more walks and strikeouts, the whole Soto deal there, is a pending free agent, so we'll see where he winds up.
Starting point is 00:15:02 But, you know, Scott, do you worry at all about the mega contract, first year of a mega contract, Juan Soto, potentially going to a new place and not being in Yankee Stadium again next year? I mean, not for Juan Soto, who was a megastar from the time he reached the major leagues. The only, the year and a half he was in San Diego was a little underwhelming based on what we had come to expect from Juan Soto. It's a difficult environment, and his home away splits suggest it really was the environment. So as long as he doesn't go to an extreme pitcher-friendly environment, you know, he spent the first part of his career in Washington, which is, about as neutral as environments get, and he was great there.
Starting point is 00:15:47 So as long as he's not really on the pitching side, the environment he lands and isn't tilted so much toward pitching. I don't worry about much of anything for Juan Soto. And how they finished this past year, Aaron Judge won and Juan Soto 2 is how I'm ranking them for next year. Any concern, Chris, with Aaron Judge's postseason performance, one might say that he dropped the ball. I mean, it was concerning for Yankees fans.
Starting point is 00:16:15 But no, I don't think there's any reason to think that, like, I don't know, the pressure got to him or he just doesn't like October. Like, I have no, he gets scared easily and he doesn't like Halloween. But like whatever, like, whatever dumb argument you want to make about it, like, there's no reason to think it carried over. It's going to carry over. Like he's had, he's been kind of an underwhelming postseason hitter, basically his. whole career. And he got off to a bad start this past year and still put up MVP numbers. Yeah. Like I do not expect him to hit 58 home runs again, but I did it two years ago. Yeah. Yeah. Like that's the baseline. I feel like what over the last three seasons,
Starting point is 00:17:00 his 162 game average is a 304 batting average, 129 runs, 60 home runs, 135 RBI, 113, stolen basis. It's like he's going to be 33 next year very early on in the season. So like if he takes a step back, I wouldn't surprise. But there's no reason to expect that to happen. Based on what we saw last year, he's still a one of one. In some ways, he was actually better in 2024 than he was in 2022, which I wouldn't have expected. So yeah, I think he's the, clear number one outfielder. I'm in a way too early NFBC draft. That's a 15 teamer, and I got Juan Soto at 10.
Starting point is 00:17:53 That was really surprising to me, but that seems to be where he's like more middle of the first in a 15 team, maybe late first in a 12, and I'll take that every time. Thank you very much. Yeah. If Juan Soto has a chance of drop to 10th overall, I will just take the 10th overall pick in every 12-team league,
Starting point is 00:18:17 or 15-team league, frankly. I have them, what do I have him? Fourth overall. I have him 4th overall. I think he's the clear fourth overall play. So anybody drafting in CBS leagues probably can't expect to get once out of as late this 10th, but yeah, that's weird. Mookie Betts went ahead of him, and like, I get it.
Starting point is 00:18:37 He's shortstop and will be second base eligible, presumably. but eventually Juan's time it's just better All right Outfielders number three and four we had Brent Rooker and Jared Duran
Starting point is 00:18:48 two of the biggest breakouts in fantasy this past season Rooker is Utel only heading into 2025 but sounds like he could get back to playing outfield
Starting point is 00:18:57 early next season he was dealing with a forearm injury forearm injury right for Brent Rooker yeah so that's why he had surgery on yeah so that's why he
Starting point is 00:19:05 wasn't playing outfield and so you know not that he'll be an everyday outfielder but there's a chance you know, 39 home runs, 11 steals, 927 OPS, and you don't have to pay anywhere near that to get him. The early ADP is 76.6 on Brent Roker. And Jaron really just continued his 2023 production, but just got the opportunity to play every day this past season. There are some questions.
Starting point is 00:19:28 He's batting its lefties. Will he remain with the Red Sox? We'll find those out this offseason. But yeah, Chris, two of the biggest breakouts this season, Brent Rooker, Jared Duran. Yeah, I think. both of them probably had their career year, which might be surprising to say about guys who basically are both entering their third seasons in the majors,
Starting point is 00:19:51 but Duranas 28, Rookers 29, I believe. So they are on the old side for players with their experience level. And I think they got pretty much everything they could out of their skill sets. And that's not a knock on them. They had awesome seasons. They're great players. I will not be drafting Brent Rooker or Jaron as top four outfielders. I'm more likely to draft Rooker at his price.
Starting point is 00:20:18 I got to interject and remind everyone Rooker, you can't draft him as an outfield. We presume he's going to regain eligibility there at some point, but he's D.H. only. But I am much more excited about drafting Rooker as a utility-only player in the fifth or sixth round than I am Duran, who's going to go probably early second. even in 12th team leagues.
Starting point is 00:20:40 He's going to be mid to early second in most leagues. And I think he's awesome. I think, look, there's a chance for a trade. Boston's got some crowding in the outfield that they probably need to alleviate and selling on a career year or that year might make some sense. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:21:01 Like, I think he's a really good player. I just, I'm not sure he's a much better fantasy player than Brent Rooker, let alone the, you know, 35-pick difference in ADP that's going to exist there. Yeah, it's just the shape of the production that you're going to get. A lot more steals with Duran and obviously a lot more power from Brent Rooker. The number five and six outfielders this past season were Kyle Schwerber and Yordaun Alvarez, Schwerber, no longer has outfield eligibility, but we're not going to do a podcast that's dedicated to U.S.
Starting point is 00:21:30 only players, so we'll talk about him here. We're not expecting him to get outfield eligibility next season. did change his approach, a lot less fly balls, and helped him up the batting average. Schwaburber from 197 to 248. Will that remain? Only time will tell. And Alvarez continues to be a four-category stud.
Starting point is 00:21:47 He's great in head-to-points leagues. Both of these guys are really great in that format. Miss some time like he normally does, but yeah, I think one of the more consistent four-category contributors, Scott, no speed here, but, you know, two of the best matchers in the game still, Schwerber and Yordon Alvarez. Yeah, I don't know that there's anything new to offer about Jordan Alvarez, who has basically been the same player ever since he debuted, and he gets downgraded because he doesn't steal bases, and he tends to miss 15 plus games every year. So that puts him more like an early second rounder when otherwise, just by the pure hitting stats, he'd be.
Starting point is 00:22:35 I don't know, one of the top six best hitters in the game, something like that. And so that's kind of the way it's always been for Yordna Alvarez. Schwerber has got the same issue as Rooker, as you mentioned, D.H. only and likely to stay D.H. only. I don't think more so than Rooker, yeah. Hope of him regaining outfield eligibility. For what it's worth, Schwerber is excluding Otani, obviously. Schwaber is my highest ranked DH-only player. I have him ahead of both Marcelo Zuna and Brent Rooker, given that.
Starting point is 00:23:15 I'm expecting him to continue the changes he made this year, where he kind of lowered the launch angle a little bit was less extreme with the fly balls, traded off some home runs so he wasn't approaching 50 in that category, but added a bunch more batting average that makes him easier to build around. And you know the run RBI production is good, batting lead off for the Phillies. He's just, you have a much better idea what to expect from Schwabur and you can expect that stud production, I think more completely than you can for Rooker, certainly. And Marcel O'Suna as well, who managed, Ozone has put together back-to-back good years,
Starting point is 00:23:58 but of course he's had a lot of ups and downs in his career. The number seven and eight outfielders, we had Corbyn Carroll and Teyazka Hernandez. Two very different profiles here. For Carol, we are well aware of how polarizing his 24 season was by now. The first half, he hit 212 with five home runs, 18 steals, a 635 OPS. I mean, people had their pitchforks and they were ready to drop Corby and Carol. Why are we still holding on to this player? And then, in the second half, he hit 258 with 17 home runs, 17 C.
Starting point is 00:24:30 and a 9-19 OPS, a lot more flyballs, a lot more pulling the ball, and obviously things, you know, he didn't get all the way back to where you needed him to be, but I think Carol still finishes a top 25 player this past season. And Taska Hernandez, you know, we mentioned last off-season that he had trouble seeing the ball in Seattle,
Starting point is 00:24:48 while he went out to LA, and he dominated. He hit 33 home runs, 99 RBI, he had 12 steals, in 840 OPS, continues to barrel up the ball consistently. Now he is a free agent this off-season, season. We would love him to go back to L.A. If not, I think he's almost guaranteed to take a step back. But Chris, two very valuable players at the position, but they do it in very different ways. Yeah, I think Teoscar Hernandez is probably a decent bet to just take a step back, even if he returns to Los Angeles. Obviously, it's a great place to play, and we would rather him go back to Los Angeles. But, you know, like 12 stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:25:26 He was 31 years old. It was his most since 2021. His home runs, career high. RBI actually surprisingly only the second most he's had and only six more than he had the previous year. There are rumors of Boston, Chris, and I don't know. That could be pretty fun. That would be pretty awesome for Teosker.
Starting point is 00:25:46 Yeah, I think Teoscar Hernandez is kind of the feels like that's the last thing the Red Sox need, right? An outfielder? They're looking for right-handed bats. They have too many lefties. Yeah, and you know, they've got what?
Starting point is 00:26:01 One of their top prospects is definitely an outfielder, but Christian Campbell can play second, right? And Marcelo Meyer is a shortstop. Yeah, they got a lot of choices for second base, too. Oh, no. There's a lot to sort out in Boston. They're a team that I think, Frank and I have talked about it several times,
Starting point is 00:26:18 but I think a trade with the Mariners makes so much sense for Boston, whether it's one of the prospects or I think Duran would make a lot of sense. But either way, we're talking about Teoscar Hernandez. he's kind of like what Nick Castellanos was before last season, right? Like I feel pretty confident. I know what I'm going to get about 30 home runs, a batting average that probably won't help me or hurt me. A lot of RBI, obviously, depending on where he plays.
Starting point is 00:26:49 Good player, not someone you have to draft as high as he finished last year and you won't, that he's not going to go that high anyway. I think he's a really solid, like, number two outfielder probably. If I could comment on Corbyn Carroll here, you mentioned how much better he got from June 6th on. So kind of an arbitrary cutoff, but we're talking basically two-thirds of the season. June 6th on, Corbyn Carroll, was the second best outfielder in both major scoring formats. and head-to-head points. And that's even though he hit 256 from June 6th on.
Starting point is 00:27:35 And it's still the number two outfielder in Roto Leagues, especially. The thing that's kind of amazing is like outside of batting average, despite the ups and downs and everything that went along with it, Cor McCarroll kind of ended up with the season you expected. I guess we would have hoped for more than, well, what, he's still 30 bases? Yeah, it was 35. Yeah, it was. You were hoping for 40 plus.
Starting point is 00:27:58 53 and as a rookie. But everything else. Pretty much right what you would have hoped for. Yeah, 121 runs. Yeah. I think that had a big part in how high he finished. But my point was, I don't expect him to hit as low as 256 normally. Like, he had a 268 Babbat during that stretch that he hit 256.
Starting point is 00:28:21 And so if he was good enough to be the number two outfielder while batting 256, I think I think there's a chance Corby and Carroll you know if it falls to round two which seems more than plausible pretty likely in fact
Starting point is 00:28:38 it might be a steal because I think long term I still project this guy to be a top five overall pick more often than not I mean that was my big takeaway from
Starting point is 00:28:52 the first mock draft we did was in a 12th team league I think I want to be in one of the final three picks because I think ADP early on is not quite there. I think, like, Yordaun Averess is like 18th in ADP. So, hey, I'll take a bottom three pick in a 15 team league too if it means I get Yardon Alvarez in the second round.
Starting point is 00:29:16 But I think like wherever you want to put it, you know, Lindor or Yardon Alvarez or, you know, someone might put Corby and Carol there. I think there are 15 first round caliber hitters this year. And I'll take two of them, thank you. And Corbyn Carroll is definitely one of them. All right, let's take our final break. And when we return, we'll continue on with our outfield recap. We'll do that right after this.
Starting point is 00:29:42 Welcome back in the number nine and ten outfielders this past season. Jazz Chisholm and Anthony Santander, another duo that could not be more different. Jazz got traded to the Yankees midseason and hit the ground running, pun intended. 46 games with the Yankees, 273, 11 home runs, 18 steals, and 825 OPS. That is over a 150 game pace, 35 home runs, 58 steals. Will he keep that up? Probably not. And he also needs to stay healthy. This was the first season he actually managed to do that.
Starting point is 00:30:13 And Santander had himself a career year in a contract year. 44 home runs, 102 RBI, 814 OPS. He's also a free agent this off season. Scott, we have some questions here. Can jazz stay healthy? Will that elbow hold up because he suffered an injury towards the end of the season with that? Will he kind of remain on that pace
Starting point is 00:30:34 and where is Santander playing next season? So big questions here. Well, Santander leaving Baltimore might be a good thing. He's not as impacted by the big left field, the deep left field fences. A right-handed hitter would be. He switched hitters.
Starting point is 00:30:52 So he's spending most of his time left side. But he might hit more opposite field home runs and more home runs from the right side. You look at his home away splits and yeah, Santander would be better off playing elsewhere. Does that mean he could actually improve on the 44 home runs he hit? He kind of did the reverse Kyle Schwerber thing. He was putting the ball in the air more 55% fly ball rate according to fan graphs. It's a career high. It cost him some points in batting average. He's never been a great source of batting average. So maybe that's a worthy tradeoff like Schwerber's going the other way,
Starting point is 00:31:26 was. I don't like this profile. I've always had a hard time evaluating Santander properly because to me it's just all homers and nothing else. And I mean nothing else. He doesn't walk at all. If you're talking points league value, that's suppressed because of how little he walks.
Starting point is 00:31:47 And he's going to hit 40 plus home runs. okay i can live with you only hitting home runs but it's just such a narrow margin for error and i have a hard time with that so where do i rank uh santander next year it's 18th at the position and that's probably i'm sure that's the highest i've ever ranked him it's going to take a certain build in rhodo i think for me to actually take him there. The number 11 and 12 outfielders this past season, Jackson Merrill and Brenton Doyle, both names do take a little bit of a hit in head-to-head points.
Starting point is 00:32:32 Merrill doesn't walk very much, though he makes a lot of contact. And Brenton Doyle has some pretty bad play discipline himself. But two young bucks that both had breakout seasons, Merrill took off from June on. He had 299 with 21 home runs, nine steals, and a 901 OPS. He did all of that as a 21-year-old. So the hope is that he continues to improve. Now you'll have to spend a third round pick to get your hands on Jackson Merrill.
Starting point is 00:32:57 And Brenton Doyle was one of 10 players to go 2030 this past season, made huge improvements. He dropped his strikeout rate from 35% to 25%. He's extremely fast. He's a great defender. He plays for the Rockies. So yes, he's still going to be an everyday player
Starting point is 00:33:12 and obviously playing in that environment helps him quite a bit. Chris, what do you have on Jackson Merrill and Brenton Doyle? I mean, I think you're underselling him. defensively saying he's great. He might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. And we usually don't care very much about defense, but in this case, I mean, that's the only reason he got a chance to be in the lineup in
Starting point is 00:33:35 24 because he was a sub-600 OPS bat in 2023 with Corse Field. So it's not a stretch to say that Brent Doyle is only like relevant right now because his defense was so good that the Rockies couldn't take him out of the lineup. And then he took this big step forward as a hitter in a way that actually looks really sustainable. He had a 328 Wobah, which was 71 points higher than the previous year. His expected Wobo was even higher. And you would expect playing half your games in course field for the X Woba to be lower than the actual Wobah. You'd expect the environment to inflate his production.
Starting point is 00:34:18 So it's a risky profile. There's a lot of strikeouts here. There's a lot of swing and miss, just bad plate discipline in general. But if there's average raw pop, and it seems like there is, and he can strike out 25. He's going to stay in the lineup.
Starting point is 00:34:39 He's going to steal a bunch of bases. It's a risky profile. And again, another guy, you should not draft as good as what he did last year. but as a number two speed-oriented outfielder, preferably a high-end number three, I think he's pretty cool. The early 80s.
Starting point is 00:34:59 Go ahead. I was going to say the early ADP on Doyle is 93.3 as the 22nd outfielder off the board, and that actually feels reasonable. I'm surprised. Like, outfielder number 22, I was like, ah, but then 93 is like, well, that's fine. I don't care. Like the order of the outfielder's,
Starting point is 00:35:18 if I might have a couple of guys ahead of him, who cares, right? Like, I, I think the overall price is fine there. And then, uh, Jackson Merrill just looks every bit like a future superstar. Um,
Starting point is 00:35:33 top prospect who at, he was 20 this season, right? He turned 21, like either during the season or recently. I think during the season, yeah. Um, excellent plate discipline makes a ton of contact.
Starting point is 00:35:48 hits the ball really hard when he does. And again, he was 20 years old, 78th percentile barrel rate, 70th percentile average exit velocity. Expect a batting average, 98th percentile. I think there's a chain. We're not drafting Jackson Merrill this way.
Starting point is 00:36:06 I do think there's a path to him being a first round player. Gets to that 30 home run mark. He hit 24 again as a 20-year-old. Runs a little more, only 16 steals last year, but 81st percentile sprint speed. Again, it feels like a little bit of a Jackson Churio situation where the team was probably like,
Starting point is 00:36:24 you're learning a new position. Oh, yeah, he did all of that as a 20-year-old while learning a new position, never played outfield his professional career before. It feels like one where they were like, we'll worry about the steals later. Like, let's get everything. You can run in obvious situations.
Starting point is 00:36:38 And this year, he might have a green light way more often. And could he go 25, 25 while hitting 300? I think that's absolutely within the realm of possibilities. I really think Jackson Merrill is he's not going to get drafted as high as Jackson Churio and he probably shouldn't be. There probably shouldn't be much. In ADP, it's about 12 spots.
Starting point is 00:37:04 It was hard to decide who to rank first, honestly, because I think Jackson Meryl as a hitter is a little more projectable than Jackson Churio. And I think Churio probably more projectable as a base stealer. I know he wasn't much better, but I think it's probably 30 steel ceiling for Merrill. There's probably 45 steel ceiling for Churio. But steals are easier to find than ever. And I think...
Starting point is 00:37:30 Well, we are major fantasy baseball influencers here, all right? We got the number one fantasy baseball podcast. So the fact that they're 12 spots apart in ADP on November 12. 12 means nothing until the biggest fantasy baseball influencers have spoken. And as one of the biggest fantasy baseball influencers, I say, Jackson Merrill. Take them right behind Jackson Churio. They're just as good. They're just as good as each other.
Starting point is 00:38:03 And Merrill might even be better. There you go. All right. Again, the top 12 this past season in the outfield, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Brent Rooker, Jaron, Duran, Kyle Schwerber, Yordaun Alvarez, Corbyn Carroll, Teasca Hernandez, Jazz Chishol, Anthony Santander,
Starting point is 00:38:18 and Jackson, Merrill, and Brenton Doyle. We do have some news items. I want to quickly move through just so we can get to some other outfielder's here. Shohei Otani's left shoulder surgery is likely to delay his pitching debut for the Dodgers. Scott, this was a big news item,
Starting point is 00:38:32 obviously that came out while you were, you know, doing some home improvement. But do you think, do you think Otani... He spent a lot of money at Home Depot. Yeah, do you think Otani? should still be the first overall picnics here. I am reluctant to commit to this yet.
Starting point is 00:38:49 And I shouldn't be because we're not going to know anymore by the time we're drafting for realties. Yeah. You know, I don't care about him pitching, frankly, as far as fantasy value concerns, is concerned maybe in daily leagues, okay, you're hoping to get both the pitching and hitting contributions.
Starting point is 00:39:10 I can understand that. But from a weekly league perspective, I'd almost rather him not pitch at this point, given how good just the hitting went. So the report that his return to the mound will be delayed by this surgery to his opposite shoulder does nothing to change his value in my mind. It's just the fact that he had the labrum repaired
Starting point is 00:39:33 in his main shoulder for hitting, which isn't supposed to delay him hitting-wise at the start of the year, right? But how will it impact him? Will they be willing to let him run as much? That's the one. That's the big question for me because the injury came. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:52 While stealing a base. Yeah. And he ran way more last year than he ever had. I made some changes to my rankings based on news that came out while I was out. I kept Otani at the top. But I am open to moving him to two or even three behind judge. and wit. I think three makes sense.
Starting point is 00:40:15 I just haven't committed to it. Yeah, you're you're you're you're you're you're you're you're you're you're. You want a tonny third Chris yeah. I mean I haven't done my overall rankings. Do we have a tape tape date for when we're supposed to have any of that stuff done? I haven't done it. I don't think they're going to go live until like jane. All right.
Starting point is 00:40:28 Okay. I got time like to get it out of the way. Uh, probably probably probably a post thanksgiving, uh, task for me. But yeah, I'm I'm, I'm thinking at this point. I would probably project more like 25 stolen bases for Otani. and probably more like 45 homers than 50 plus. So yeah, I think I'm,
Starting point is 00:40:51 and then like there's just additional risk involved, not just because of this shoulder surgery, but because he's going to be pitching. So I think I would put him third. I don't think any lower than that makes any sense. But yeah, I feel like I'd rather have wit and judge. And honestly, I have no idea who should be number one
Starting point is 00:41:16 between the two of them now. You know, before the injury, Otani felt like a pretty clear number one. And now it's like, well, I could go either way on wit and judge. Zach Netto had right shoulder surgery last week and could miss the start of next season. Netto hurt his shoulder on a slide on September 26th. You guys both previously ranked Netto as your number 11 shortstop for 2025. I have to imagine he's going to move down now.
Starting point is 00:41:41 I'm eyeballing it, I think 20. Oh. But it could be even further. Oh. Yeah. I moved him down to 14. I'm worried. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:56 Especially for someone who doesn't, he doesn't generate premium exit velocities, right? So he really needs to kind of like. His margin fair is kind of slim. Yeah. Yeah. Like he's got to do the pulling fly balls thing. And so. Is he going to steal 30 bases again coming off shoulder surgery?
Starting point is 00:42:11 That's a question. I guess what I was thinking is, okay, I moved him down to the part of the shortstop rankings where everybody has questions. He's right just ahead of Carlos Correa, who's always hurt, Xavier Edwards. Do we really know who he is? Tyler Fitzgerald, do we really know who he is? Danesby Swanson follows him, and he's fine, but he's only fine, you know? So that's why I moved Netto where I did. Obviously, I'll adjust down if we find out not ready to.
Starting point is 00:42:41 for the start of the season means like he's missing the first six weeks. But I'm imagining it's more like he misses the first couple weeks. A's GM, David Forrest said Mason Miller is not currently talking about moving back into a starting role. So as of now,
Starting point is 00:42:55 looks like he should be drafted as a closer once again. Tyler Glassnow had imaging on his right elbow recently and said, quote, it looks like it's fully healed. Hopefully it feels like it's fully healed. Alex Bregman, a free agent this offseason, is willing to move to second base, which...
Starting point is 00:43:10 So all of a sudden, like, maybe second base won't suck as much. Maybe our whole second base, because we had the Mookie Betts, probably going to play the infield. There was another, wasn't there another player moving to second base? Jazz might move back. Oh, Jazz. That was the one. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:30 Like, we might have, we might have Jazz Chisholm, Alex Bragman, and Mookie Betts at second base, all of, you know, fairly early on in the season. So like, let's see where Bregman signs. Yeah. It was just a gold glove finalist at third base. I believe I saw. So, like, I'm sure plenty of teams. Maybe the Yankees will sign Bregman and move Chisholm to second base.
Starting point is 00:43:52 I don't know. But, yeah, let's see where he goes before penciling Bregman in its second. It would help, though, if he gained eligibility there for sure. Jeff Hoffman is being pursued by some teams in free agency as a starting pitcher. Hoffman has been stellar as a reliever over the past two years. He actually was originally called up as a prospect as a starting pitcher, and we just saw Garra Crochet and Ronaldo Lopez transition back into being starters, and both were awesome. It doesn't necessarily mean it would go that way for Jeff Hoffman, but, you know, we have a sample size of players doing this recently. And they were great.
Starting point is 00:44:26 Sek Lugo, Nick Martinez. There's another guy, too. So, like, there's, this is legitimately interesting, I think. We should not sleep on Jeff Hoffman potentially moving back to the. rotation. He's, it's a starter's arsenal for sure. If he can, you know, be a mid-90s thrower in the rotation. You shouldn't sleep on him regardless because I think he can go to a team and be one of the top closers in baseball. So. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. Definitely. Either way. Either way. Alex Breggman wasn't just a gold glove finalist. He was the gold glove winner.
Starting point is 00:45:01 At third base. So you were right that he was a finalist. Yeah. There you go. Nick Martinez is expected to accept the Reds one year 21 million dollar qualifying offer and he was great this past season 310 ERA 103 WIP had much better control than ever before. Wander Franco, go ahead. I was just floored that they gave him a qualifying offer. I'm surprised he's taking it. Well that. I'm surprised on both. Apparently his representation was floored that he got a qualifying offer too. I kind of thought he might get like 345. Like I could have seen that. I'm definitely keeping him in the Dynasty League. Aaron Boone sees big roles for both Jason Dominguez
Starting point is 00:45:42 and Caleb Durbin next season. Dominguez was expected, but this is now the second time we've heard the name Caleb Durbin from the Yankees brass this offseason. And in the minors, he hit 287, 10 homers, 29 steals with more walks than strikeouts. So if the Yankees don't sign someone like Alex Bregman, they might need a second baseman, and Caleb Durbin might be that guy. Have you guys seen Caleb Durbin?
Starting point is 00:46:06 he's like stocky he packs he packs a punch dude he looks dense yeah like Dan Ugla yeah like like a like a mini Dan Ugler he's he's like five six but he's got like no neck he's got like broad shoulders and big arms he's he's he's a he's a fun looking dude yeah he's ready to watch him he's having a big afl and uh he actually played it's has played in the afl two years in a row i saw him last year
Starting point is 00:46:32 and yeah he's just like crushing baseball so 23 steals and the AFL, 23 steals and 21 games. What in the world? I love me. He's just like, these games don't matter. Let's go. 16 to 5 walk to strikeout ratio. Yeah, I mean, he's also an older player. I think he's 24 years old. So keep that in mind, but we'll see.
Starting point is 00:46:53 Not that old. Caleb Durbin. And the Marlins have hired Clayton McCullough as their new manager. He spent the past four seasons as the Dodgers first base coach. So congrats, Chris. People around the Dodgers seem to love him. I have no opinion, but yay. He brings the culture, the winning culture. He seems smart. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:47:14 Let's get back into some more outfield recap, see how many of these names we can actually get through. And numbers 13 and 14 at the position. Two players, very different points in their respective careers. Jerksson ProFar and Jackson Trio. So ProFar, we kept waiting for the other shoe to drop. It never happened. He had a career year at 31 years old.
Starting point is 00:47:35 He hit 280. He had 24 home runs, 10 steals. Nobody is buying it early on, which you shouldn't. The early ADP is outside the top 200. What is happening? Like I was all ready to be like, oh, jerks and pro far is going to be a bus for 2025. He's going behind Taylor Ward.
Starting point is 00:47:54 That's stupid. Alec Berlison, Sadan Rafael. Like, what are we doing? I felt bad that I could get at. I was the anti-Jerickson pro far guy. And I, like, even I'm like, he's going one spot ahead of Jorge Soler in the outfield? Like, what?
Starting point is 00:48:09 There's no justification for that. That's why I think, like, I can't even take it seriously. I think people just aren't thinking about jerks and pro far in these early drafts. So he's going super late. I'm not, I'm not bullish on him next year by any means. I couldn't get him in my top 30. That's how I presented my outfield, my initial outfield rankings. I went 30 deep.
Starting point is 00:48:31 I got him exactly 30th in points leagues, which is his better format. His plate discipline is so. good. But I thought it was like, man, am I going to get beat up for not having Jerks and Pro far on my top 30 as good as this year was? But apparently not if we're judging from early ADP. For what it's worth, I have from 125th overall. Yeah, I was thinking like 150-ish or something would be like the negative take on it. And instead, the highest he's been taken in any of the 21 drafts that have finished so far is 125. Like he's going behind Elliot Ramos?
Starting point is 00:49:07 Like what? Josh Lowe! I'm very confused by this. Of all the analysis, Scott's saying, I thought I was going to get beat up for ranking jerks in ProFar. I'm just imagining him out at Home Depot, and he gets approached by like the jerks and ProFar fan club. And they come and beat you up, Scott.
Starting point is 00:49:30 We're the jerks. That's what they call themselves. The jerks. We're here to rough you up. Truro we've already talked about. He's going to cost you a second round pick. Just wanted to point out from June on he hit 303, with 16 home runs, 15 seals, and an 883 OPS.
Starting point is 00:49:50 He went 20-20 as a 20-year-old. He cannot legally drink an alcoholic beverage until March 11th. Where do the brewers do spring training? Are they out in Arizona? there's a buffalo wild wings next spring training is going to have a bonkers party to celebrate Jackson Cheerio's 21st birthday
Starting point is 00:50:09 in Peoria, Arizona. I think it is out in Arizona, but yeah, that would make more sense. He was like, I want to say he was like 12th or 13th in Wobah among all hitters from June 1st on. That's not even like fantasy because he steals a lot of bases.
Starting point is 00:50:28 He was just one of the best hitters in baseball for the final like four months of the season. It was it was wild. You said earlier that Jackson Merrill, we're not drafting him this way, but he has the upside to be a first round pick. And I was saying, yeah, I have him and Jackson Turia right next to each other. So I could say the same thing about Truroo. We're not drafting him that way, but he has the upside to be a first round pick. And I think in other years, we may have drafted both of these guys that way for as much upside as they showed at 20 years old. Bobby Witt got that treatment after his 20-year-old rookie season where he wasn't,
Starting point is 00:51:09 no, he wasn't first round caliber, but everybody just saw what was coming. And I think, I think Jackson Juryo and Jackson Merrill is borderline, second, third rounders are going to be potential discounts, relatively speaking. Take them at the two, three turn. Together, two great Jackson flavors that go well together. You pair them with Aaron Judge. There's your outfield right there. That's pretty cool. We mentioned last week in that mock draft, B. Don from Razball had the second overall pick,
Starting point is 00:51:44 and he started his team Bobby Witt, Churio, and Jackson Meryl. That's pretty good. It's pretty fun. It's pretty fun stuff. It's very fun. The numbers 15 and 16 outfielders, Julio Rodriguez and Brian Reynolds. I want to point out that Julio Rodriguez does take a first. pretty big hit in head to head points leagues. He averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game in that
Starting point is 00:52:02 format that was tied for 32nd at the position. And he's just a really streaky player. So if you're playing like a weekly head to head format and you don't like inconsistency, like that's just kind of been Julio Rodriguez's career so far. The other name here, Brian Reynolds, is the opposite. I mean, he is as consistent as you can imagine. Like he's the same player every year. He's hit 24 home runs in three of the past four years. He's hit between 262 and 275. each of the past three years, between 10 and 12 steals the past two years. You know, Chris, you know exactly what you're going to get from Brian Reynolds. You kind of want to know what you're going to get from Julio Rodriguez,
Starting point is 00:52:40 but yeah, it was a down season for him this year. I think you know what you're going to get from O'Leo Rodriguez. I hope so. And I think 2024 was just a blip, and this is the type of player that you bet on, players who are this good when they're this young, even when things don't go right for them for one year, you just bet on them figuring out.
Starting point is 00:53:02 We saw it with, to a lesser extent with Juan Soto in San Diego, we saw it with Ronald Ocunia when he was coming back from his ACL. You should just, guys who are this good, this young, usually don't just forget how to play baseball. And in Julio Rodriguez's case, I had kind of written the final stretch of the season off for him
Starting point is 00:53:21 because he had that high ankle sprain. He clearly rushed back from it. And I was like, well, that's it. It's a lost season entirely for your Rodriguez. Then he has an awesome September. Seven homer, six deals, eight, 95 OPS. And it's like, okay. Now I feel like I was going to rank him as a first rounder
Starting point is 00:53:40 or in that top 15 no matter what. Now I feel even better about it. I have Corby and Carol ahead of him, though. I have Carol one spot ahead. Oh, okay. I thought I thought it was going to be a weirdo. Early ADP, Scott, Corbyn Carroll is just the head of J. Rod as well. Everybody agrees then.
Starting point is 00:54:02 But like I think both are viable first rounders and I'm happy. Like I think in the mock draft, did I take them both in the mock draft? Their first round caliber players that are likely going to be pushed around two, though, at least in 12 teamers. Yeah, no, I'm right. I took Kyle Tucker and Carol at 15. but like any combination of two of those plus Tatis, Julio, and Francisco Lindorre, like two of those guys, I think is such an awesome way to start your draft. In a 12-team league, you can start, yeah, Julio and Corby and Carolin's just kind of by the dips on
Starting point is 00:54:41 on both guys from a year ago. They were both top five picks. So now you can potentially get them at the turn in a 12-team league. Number 17 and 18 at the outfield position, Ian Hap and Muki Betts. We broke down bets on previous podcast. So let's take a quick look at Ian Hap, who is actually slightly better in a head-to-head points league. He's a lot like Brian Reynolds in that he's consistent.
Starting point is 00:55:02 He doesn't have huge upside, but he's going to hit you 240 to 250, great OBP, 20 to 25 homers, 12 to 15 steals. And Scott probably a more useful player in like a five outfielder league where you just get solid plate appearances, right? Like, he doesn't blow you away, but he's going to come and he's going to do his job
Starting point is 00:55:21 and he's going to play every day. Yeah, unless the three outfielder league you're talking about is a points league, in which case Ian Haps, 2.95 points per game was better than Brenton Doyle, Spencer Steer, Riley Green, Brian Reynolds. Yeah, it was up there. And that is his format because of how much he walks mainly. Yeah, I think if we're comparing Ian Hap to some of the other kind of rock solid outfielders who are limited to B-level production like a Brian Reynolds. So I put Brian Reynolds in that category.
Starting point is 00:56:07 Let's put Brandon Nemo in that category. I have Sayah Suzuki in that category. Well, I'm putting Riley Green in that category, even though I think some believe he has untapped up. upside. I don't, I don't, I don't think there's a diverse enough skill set there for Riley Green. Ian Hap's at the bottom of that list. And I, I don't know that he deserves to be, but I, I expect he will. I don't know, it was early ADP showing that he's quite a bit behind all of those players. Ian Hapst is currently the 31st outfielder, 135.380P, and he is quite a bit behind Riley Green and Brian Reynolds and Sayas Suzuki, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yep.
Starting point is 00:56:48 And so I think he's a bargain, relatively speaking. Because the rest of them, I rank ahead of kind of more sizzly types like Brenton Doyle and Lawrence Butler. I kind of put most of that safe group ahead of them. Randy Rosarayne is in that sizzle group. But then I have Ian Hap behind them. All right, we're going to wrap up here on number 19 and 20 outfielders. from 2024, Sayy Suzuki and O'Neill Cruz. We broke down O'Neill Cruz on our shortstop recap.
Starting point is 00:57:24 So let's quickly talk about Sayas Suzuki, who has also been really consistent the last two years, right around a 285 batting average, 20 home runs, 850 OPS. The difference is that he up to steals from 6 to 16. He's yet to play more than 138 games. But Chris, if Suzuki were to do that, I still think there's a little bit of untapped potential here.
Starting point is 00:57:45 If we get a 150 game season from SEA, can we get 25 home runs, 20 steals with a really good batting average? I don't think it's crazy. I mean, the weird thing about Suzuki, I don't know if you guys noticed this, but I didn't until I was looking this up earlier. But he had one horrible month this season. He had 6.04 OPS in May. Every other month of the season, he had at least an 849 OPS. from June 1st on, say Suzuki had an 887 OPS
Starting point is 00:58:20 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 99 games. He was the number 12 hitter in baseball in Woba just behind Bryce Harper from June 1st on. I agree. I still think there's some upside there. I think there is, you know, the fact that he ran so much more this year, I think is a good sign.
Starting point is 00:58:41 Yeah. I think probably another guy who's a little better in points leagues because of the walk rate, you know, not helping you directly. But overall, just a rock solid outfielder number two with I think fringe outfield one upside. I don't know if like I could see a top five finish, but I could see, I don't know, like. Could he do what Teoscar Hernandez just did, you know, something like that? probably less power. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:59:11 A little more speed, but yeah, or like a better version of what Jorx and ProFar did, maybe with a little less batting average. Like I think that range where like these guys ended up as low end number one outfielders. I think the best case scenario for Sayas Suzuki looks something like that. All right. Well, I just, I think it's interesting you're doing the month by month breakdown thing.
Starting point is 00:59:33 When if you just look at the full season stat line for Say, Suzuki, virtually identical from 23 to 24. For me, I just didn't realize. Except a handful more steals. Yeah, I just didn't realize that he was that good outside of May. The last four names that were in the top 24, which we won't really break down,
Starting point is 00:59:51 but I'll just mention Spencer Steer, Brandon Nimmo, Nick Cassiano's and Alec Berluson round out the top 24. I mean, it's an interesting group in that they're all kind of uninteresting. Yeah. Right? Like, like, like, Stee,
Starting point is 01:00:06 I think the most valuable thing about him is you can just play him everywhere. He's what triple eligible next season, right? Just first and outfield. He's not third. He could regain because he can play everywhere. So he could regain at some of the positions he lost. But like that's one that like if the Reds decided to trade him this offseason, stay away. That's it's a real.
Starting point is 01:00:32 It's a real marginal skill set. We talked at first base about how I just, I don't like Spencer Steer. And I think he's on a knife. He's on, he's on a knife's edge. And I'd hate to be, I'd hate to have him when he falls on the wrong side of that knife. Is that how that analogy works? Anyway, I wanted to say with Brandon Nimmo, I feel like there's a potential for him to be undervalued here because of those boring. but consistently B-level outfielders I listed off.
Starting point is 01:01:08 Nimmo is actually my favorite because he added a bunch of stolen bases. He was 15 for 15 as a base dealer. First time he had double digits, but that's something that he's capable of, so I expect him to keep doing that. The run in RBI production is great. He's back-to-back years,
Starting point is 01:01:26 hit more than 20 homers, so I think we can trust that that's a reliable part of Nimmo's skill set now. He hit only 224, and that is... Had to have been the foot. The outlier for Nimmo, because he entered the year as a career 270 hitter, had hit better than 274 straight years.
Starting point is 01:01:50 And so I look at that. If we're adding in 15 to 20 steals for Nimmo now, if we're presuming that for him, 15 to 20 to 20 to 25 homers, good batting average, good runs in RBI, that's five category production. So, and he's even better in points leagues, by the way, because he walks a lot and all the reasons the players normally better in points leagues.
Starting point is 01:02:13 So I like Nimmo a lot for next year. I don't know where he's going. Where's his ADP among outfielders early on? Scott, you're going to have a ton of Brandon Nimry because he's the 40th outfielder. 164 is the ADPs behind Lane Thomas and Josh Lowe. Well, very early, so very likely to change. But yeah, I rank him 23rd.
Starting point is 01:02:31 Yeah. My only concern is that the plant's heart fasciitis doesn't go away and if it kind of pops back up of it if it's a lingering issue. But yeah, I mean, if the batting average does bounce back, then yeah, he could be a big steal. Even with the planter for shyness, steel at that price.
Starting point is 01:02:48 Even with him hitting 224. He was the 22nd best outfielder this past. True. That's fair. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am prank. Thanks as always for tuning in some fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a 5-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
Starting point is 01:03:02 And we will be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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