Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 Second Base Recap! Top Performers & Early 2025 Rankings! (10/24 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 24, 2024

Let's start with preseason second base ADP plus the state of the position (2:15)! ... Ketel Marte had a re-breakout (10:14)! ... Is Father Time catching up to Jose Altuve (14:15)? ... Brice Turang might just be a one-trick pony (21:02). ... Will Luis Garcia Jr. play against lefties (24:08)? ... Nico Hoerner took a slight step back (27:48). ... Will Marcus Semien bounce back (32:25)? ... How do we project Maikel Garcia (35:06)? ... Bryson Stott took a step back (35:23). ... Andres Gimenez's power took a step back (41:14). ... News (45:12): Sonny Gray should have a normal offseason. ... Ozzie Albies and Jordan Westburg were riddled by broken bones in 2024 (51:54). ... Who else is in the Top 12 second basemen for next season (57:43)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Second base, yuck. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, October 24th.

I am Frank Stample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we are re-churchase. the top performers at second base from this past season. Spoiler alert. Not great. And taking an early look at 2025 rankings, let's start with a quick look at ADP entering this season. The top 10 second baseman being drafted,

Mukie Betts, Ozzy Albies, Marcus Semyon, Jose Altuve, Nico Horner, Matt McLean, Glaber Torres, Hassan Kim, Zander Bogartz, Ctele-Marté. Only five of 10 were correct. Yeah, well, there's your problem right there. Yeah. That's a pretty crummy list of players. Worse accuracy than catcher and first base.

You know, both catcher and first base, one more. So, you know, six out of ten. Not a huge deal, but there were lots of injuries at this position this year with Mookie Betts, Oz Yalbys, Matt McLean, Hassan Kim, Zander Bogartz. And also lots of players losing second base eligibility heading into next year. So Mookie Betz right up at the top will not have second base eligibility. eligibility, followed by Spencer Steer, Louisa Rice, Hassan Kim, Tommy Edmund, Xavier Edwards, Tyler Fitzgerald, Ryan McMahon, Seidon Raphaela, and Matt McLean.

Some of those players could regain second base eligibility. Like, I think we all expect Matt McLean to play second base, and maybe the Marlins just figure out, wow, Xavier Edwards is really bad at shortstop. We have to play him at second base. So, you know, some of those guys can gain it. But as of now, not so great. And Scott, that's where I will go to you. one word to describe the state of second base. Ew. Breaking out a little earnest P. Worrell here at the start of the show.

And like the thing is, we gave a negative kind of guttural moan for both catcher and first base as well. And second base is like rock bottom. This is the worst of the worst here among what looks to be a... Catcher is, catcher is worse. Well, catcher is kind of its own category. Yeah, yeah. But the infield is in bad shape right now, apart from shortstop. So if you're listening, just the way we progress through the positions generally,

it makes it sound like they're all bad. It's just the order we're going in. We're getting the bad ones out of the way first. But yeah, second base is really bad. And you've summed up a lot of the reason why, especially Xavier Edwards and Tyler Fitzgerald. losing eligibility there. That's the real gut punch because those guys came in mid-season

and it's like, well, we're not totally sure they're this good. They're kind of flawed players that just happened to excel in this strange way. But we'll give them the benefit of the doubt because they play second base, but now they don't play second base anymore. They're at shortstop, which is loaded.

And one thing I want to point out is that I think second base is kind of a microcom for the juiced ball era because what you saw was from 2005 to 2014 to 2004 to 2013 so let me make sure I get the numbers right only 7.9% of 20 homer seasons in the majors were by second baseman that was from 2004 to 2013 from 2014 to 2023 13 13. 13.13 13.6 of 20 homer seasons in the majors were by second baseman. That's almost double. Last year, 6.7% of the 20 homer seasons in the majors were by second basements. So just a big drop off. And we've started to see some of the, and you saw something similar with the steroid era where

it wasn't obviously all second baseman or middle infielders or historically light hitting positions were starting to have for power, but the gains were bigger there, right? There were already 30 Homer guys playing the outfield and first base and third base. Those basically never existed at second base in Major League history until, I don't know, Brett Boone and Jeff Kent and guys like that came around in the late 90s and early 2000s. Dan Ugla, baby, Dan Ugla. Dan Ugla, yeah. There's, you know, insert your favorite favorite.

2000s slugging second baseman here. And that is not entirely gone, but it's kind of gone. There were only seven last year. Only five of those will actually be second base eligible for fantasy next year because Spencer Steerline got to the 20-homer mark last year and will not be eligible. Yeah. Well, and what's exacerbated that issue is the shift ban. because when infield shifting was at its highest,

teams were willing to stick a positionless player that they would have normally had to confine to first base. They were willing to stick him in second base. The example I always think of as Mike Mastakis when he was with the Brewers, and they started playing him at second base. And I think at first it was just like an emergency, like someone got hurt.

And they were like, oh, it doesn't matter that he can't move. We can just do that. You can shift around it. You can shift around a second. second basement with no range, but now it's harder to do that. And so we're seeing, we're seeing less of that, which is helping to reduce the power at the position. You know, I don't think we'll, the juice ball era kind of killed position scarcity. Yeah. For the reasons you mentioned. And it's, it's come back a little since then, but I don't know that we'll ever see it come all the way back. I

mean, for most of baseball history, your hitters basically came from three positions, first base, left field and right field, maybe it'd get something from your third baseman, maybe from your center fielder. But up the middle and catcher were just mainly defense. And I don't think, I think we're so far from that that like position scarcity isn't a huge deal. But to the degree it's going to matter in 2025, I think it's going to matter most at second base. Shout out to you, Scott, with that earnest reference, because that reminded me, my favorite

of all his movies. Ernest scared stupid is relevant now. It's spooky season, obviously. I don't know. I assume that it aged very, very poorly, but I mean, is he in jail in that one? Is that? Or is that Ernest goes to jail? That's Ernest goes to jail. When I mentioned Ernest, I thought both of you were looking at me cock-eyed. So I do have to confirm that like, when you said Ernest P. Howell, Worrell. Sure. Okay. I had to go look who that. was. Okay. This is one instance where saying the full name actually makes me less certain. It would be like if I said, oh, my favorite singer, Madonna Sassoni. But nobody knows who that is. He referred to himself in third person all the time. I've never seen one of those movies. Maybe I've seen Ernest goes to camp. So my first reaction was, okay, I'm relieved Franks actually heard of him. But my second reaction is, oh, wait, it's not at all surprising that Frank was hit to the Ernest movies. I don't know that I was into all of them. I definitely...

Has never seen Goodfellas, but Ernest scared straight. There's some really bad ones. I've seen Goodfellas. I like Goodfellas a lot, actually. But for all the dads out there, if you need a Halloween, a kiddie Halloween movie, Ernest Scared Stupid, I think we'll get the job done. I think saves Christmas is my favorite.

All right. Well, there's your Ernest segment of the day. Let's get into the top 10 second baseman from this past season, based on Roto slash categories. I will mention if they were, Actually, no, I didn't do that. I don't know, for some reason. I have that in the notes.

I was supposed to. I didn't look up their head-to-head points rank. So we'll just be talking about where they ranked in Roto and head-to-head categories. But you know the difference for a lot of these players. If we talk about plate discipline, obviously they will most likely be better in the head-to-head points format. Number one this past season was Catell Marte,

who had a huge re-breakout season. 2.92 with 36 home runs, seven steals, a 932 OPS, made some improvements to his quality of contact. career high 94.1 average exit velocity that ranked in the 98th percentile. He also pulled the ball more than ever before and it clearly worked. Chris, I love the skill set in terms of just combining plate discipline with the ability to hit the ball as hard as he does. But I think the prudent move is to at least expect a little bit of regression in 2025 for Cotel Marte. Yeah, it's a career year for a 30 year old, a guy who's going to be 31 in 2025. So yeah, I think expecting a step

back is probably the right decision. I still think he's probably the number one player at the position. I'm assuming that's the way I ranked it. That is. I haven't looked at it in about three weeks. So it'll be a nice surprise at the end of the episode. And yeah, like, look, Cateau-Mortez has been a really good hitter for a pretty long time. Now, about, what, five years was when he broke out six years ago, 2019.

And we, I think a lot of people wrote it off as a juice ball thing. like, oh, he's not, he's not really a power hitter. And then before 2024, he hadn't come close to hitting 32 homers again. Well, now he did it. Now that's two seasons. There's six years apart where he's hit at this level. Well, it's certainly within the realm of, it's within his range of outcomes. Like a truly elite season is within the range of possibility for Cadele-Marty.

Should you draft him expecting this? No. If you drafted him expecting 2025 or 2024 again, he'd be an easy second round pick and might be even higher. What I want to say is, yes, this was only his second time hitting 30 home runs

and the previous time was six years prior, but just one year prior, 2023, he hit 25 home runs. And three of the last six years, he's had a 900 OPS or better, which is a huge OPS. And in fact, you were saying 2024 was a career year.

I think 2019 was actually the career year by OPS, 981, 932. to this year. And even in the, so he's had kind of this on again, off again pattern. The three 900 OPSs came with, okay, so after the first one, seven. So he's gone 981, 732, 909, 727, 844, 932. I guess maybe he's ended the on again, off again pattern with the last two years. But my point was, even during those not so productive,

productive years for Catele-Marte, the underlying data still look great. It's still like this guy's had bad luck or something weird is going on with the way the ball leaves is bad or whatever. But the talent, the raw talent was evident throughout that for Cotel-Marte. And so I think it's fair to expect less than 36 home runs, less than a 932 OPS next year. but from the weakest non-catcher position, I'll invest a second round pick and late second round pick and whatever, wherever those numbers end up.

If it's 30 home runs, if it's 28 home runs and an 850 OPS at second base, that's still worth a late second round pick to me. When we did our two round drafting the first two rounds a week or two ago, could tell Marte didn't make the cut. But I think he should have. Like, I'd take Catele-Marté over Raphael Devers. Even though Devers is more bankable from year to year,

Mm-hmm. Cotel-Marte just feels like such a distant number one at second base now. 3.68 points per game from him this past year. Only one other player was even over three. Jose Al-Tuve, 3.05 versus Catele-Marte's 3.68. The number two second baseman this year was Jose Al-Tuve, who stayed healthy and had himself a Zouvae. solid season hit 295 with 20 home runs, 22 steals, and 94 runs scored. He was one of 19 players

to go 2020, but is age starting to creep in? He turns 35 in May of next year. 790 OPS was his lowest since 2020. And there were some troublesome underlying plate discipline metrics for Jose Al-Tuvé. So Scott, I don't really want to bet against him. Neither to you. You're wearing the Space City shirt in honor of him. With his name a number on the back, yeah. I don't want to bet against him, but I'm a little nervous moving forward, a little bit. Yeah, I am too. This was the healthiest Altuve's been in a long time, the most games he's played since 2017.

And it always felt like, okay, per game production, if he could just stay healthy, he's still, you know, a second round caliber player at a weak position. and he managed to stay healthy and it was a little underwhelming. He went 2020. It was the first time he had gone 2020 again since 2017, though health was a part of that.

He hit 295, so he remains a standout for batting average. Strangely, it's like the runs were low for a lead-off hitter, the RBI weren't great either. That seems to be mainly what's held him back. And I still think of the Astros as having a good lineup,

have one that could bounce back and score a ton of runs next year. So I'm worried I might be dinging Al Tuve a little too much. My gut reaction is I don't want him as much as I used to. But I don't know that that's sensible. The thing that I think will make me want Jose Altuvae this year is what you're saying. I think a lot of people are going to not want him and are going to be like, I don't think Jose Al Tuve is going to be my most drafted second baseman because there's another older guy that I'm probably going to draft a bunch this year. But, you know, Al-Tuve,

the contact skills are so strong still. The park obviously helps him a ton. I don't know if Jose Al-Tuve would be a 15-homer guy in any other park in baseball. But where he plays, the skill set that he has, I don't know. It was a weird season. Like the walk rate collapsed, which is a weird thing. that it was the lowest it's been since 2015, I think. And I don't know what to make of that is that maybe, hey, Jose Al Tuve is 34 years old and he's got to cheat and his play discipline's not going to be as good because he has to cheat. The bat slowed down a little bit. Or is it just a weird thing that happened one time? I genuinely don't know.

He did swing more. He chased a lot. And his swinging tricrye was a career high. Yeah, well, he chased and swung on pitches in the zone more. His chase rate was up to 37%. That was a career high. Zone swing rate was actually 68.6% the highest it's been in any year since 2016. So he was just up there hacking more than we've seen in a long time.

And maybe that's just what he has to do, right? Maybe he just can't be as selective anymore because he's just, he's a fraction slower, but the bat to ball skills are still strong enough that when he makes contact, he'll be good and he's going to make a lot of contact. But yeah, it's with a player at this point in their career, the bottom can fall out anytime. You expect Hall of Famers to keep their head afloat better than most players, but he's already past the point where most players are expected to start to fall off. You know, I generally look at performance against four seam fastballs to see if a player's swing is slowing down. And, you know, it showed, it showed up in a

big way with Paul Goldschmidt last year. And I looked at it. I know when I was ranking for Altuve. I looked it up for El Tuvei. And the numbers are good against four seamers, so I kind of moved on. It was his worst ever K-rate against four seamers at 15.6. His career mark is nine. And it was his worst ever swinging strike rate against four seamers.

Worst ever ex-Wobo, worst Wobah as well. 6.1% swinging strike rate versus 4. Now, a 15 point, what was it? 15 point whatever strikeout rate and a 6% swinging strike rate, those are still good numbers and a vacuum, but they do suggest some slight regression there for Jose Altuve specifically. All right, before we hit our first break, reminder that you can always listen to FBT and our 5-minute podcast,

Fantasy Baseball Today and 5 on Spotify. if you're watching on YouTube, scan the QR code on the screen now, and that will take you right to the FBT Spotify feed. Let's take our first break, and when we return, on to the number three second baseman, Bryce Tarang.

We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, and just to recap the top two second baseman this past season, Cotel Marte and Jose Al Tuvae. Number three was Bryce Serang, who kind of had a breakout in one category, I guess, hit 254 with seven home runs

and 503. stolen bases, the third most in baseball, and it was basically a tale of two seasons. The first three months for Terang, he hit 292 with six home runs, 28 steals, and a 771 OPS. Last three months, he hit 2.14 with one homer, 22 steals, and a 551 OPS. Outside of those steals, he was unusable across the board. Chris, is there another step forward? Maybe he's only 25 years old, but I'm not sure that I see it.

under the hood. Yeah, I wrote about Buss for the fantasy baseball today newsletter. I think we're going to talk about that for FBT and 5 later in the week. Spoiler alert, Bryce Turing is on there. It just, it feels like he had a good three months and that's basically it. I don't know. Like there's pretty good contact skills there. He might be a decent source of batting average, right?

like he might be able to hit 265, 270, get on base a little bit. His walk rate is okay. But it's just there's no punch here. And I worry that like you saw hit pitchers get more aggressive with fastballs against him last season. I just don't know if like he's got an adjustment to it. So yeah, I think cheap steals, but this feels like the kind of profile that could frankly be in the minors by mid-season. Like, you know, the, the brewers have a ton of interchangeable parts.

It's been kind of frustrating, including for Bryce Terang as a rookie, to find playing time for everybody. And, you know, if he's more like a low 600s OPS bat, I don't know if he's guaranteed a spot in the lineup. His defense is pretty good. So maybe. Yeah, I mean, he's like a gold glove caliber defender. Yeah.

Uh, isn't he a gold glove finalist? I know it, his war is surprisingly high because of how good his defense is. He rates really high according to stat cast and outs above average. Yeah. So I think that probably buys Bryce Terrang a lot of grace as far as playing time goes. I think the most likely scenario is his full season stat line is about who he is, which was a 254 batting average. If you don't, if you don't look at the all-star performance in the first half and the terrible performance,

in the second half. You just take 250, 260 batting average with 40 to 50 steals, hopefully. I think that's the most likely outcome for Bryce Terang next year.

But I do think a total collapse is more likely than him taking another step forward and actually performing like a top five second basement. Again, I rank him ninth for next year in Roto. The number four second baseman

was Luis Garcia Jr. who had a breakout season himself, hit 282 with 18 home runs and 22 steals. He raised the launch angle. He lowered the ground ball rate and obviously it paid off for him. And I think he is a very intriguing player who turns 25 years old next May. So just kind of entering his prime now. But Scott, there are questions here. Can he hit lefties? Will he play against lefties? Can he be adequate against lefties? I think those are obviously the main questions. and will he steal as much? You know, the Nationals were very aggressive this year. He had the 22 steals.

He's only 45th percentile sprint speed, so I do worry about that a little bit. Yeah, I think it's fair to ask those questions for Luis Garcia. But the other thing to remember is he spent most of this year at 23 years old, right? He's now 24. So very, very young, younger than I think most people realize because he started his career. and an insanely young age.

And so I am pretty encouraged about the year he just had. I wasn't sure he'd ever reach this level. You look back at the scouting reports for Luis Garcia when he was a teenager, and they were pretty optimistic. But the proof is in the pudding, and he finally delivered something worthwhile at the Major League level. Will he play against left-handers is the biggest question for me for 2025? he should.

I know he's not very good against left-handers, but you want to give him a chance to become good, at least startable against left-handers as young as he is and as much upside as he offers. And...

So this is my concern. I agree they should. They're the nationals. I am worried that he's going to be drafted as if they will let him play more than the second lefties. And that is where,

Yeah. Again, he just finished fourth not playing against lefties. What? He's not going to be drafted that high. We're not counting players who are no longer second base eligible, right?

Yeah, yeah. Okay, because Mickey Betts and Spencer Steele were ahead of him. Like, I don't know, sixth at second base is, he did finish six at second base. That's technically correct. Um,

but like, it was 58 runs, 70 RBI, batting average is 282, but that's not playing against lefties. I expected batting average was 90th percentile. No, no, no, I understand. I was going to get there. Right.

If his performance against left-handers makes him more like a 265 hitter, but with more of bats, because he scored 58 runs this year, I mean, a horrible number. But he's able to deliver better run an RBI total, is presumably a better home run total as well. then I think it's worth it. I think that's a worthy draught off. He is not to reveal too much ahead of time.

Luis Garcia's number six for me at second base. There are five, like, good second baseman. So Luis Garcia is my highest ranked of the ones that I'm not sure are actually good, but at least there's a lot of promise there. I mean, he almost went 20-20 with a good batting average. For me, it mostly comes down to price with Luis Garcia. see you. If he's a top 100 pick, I'm probably out. Okay. I just think there will be way better players you can draft with the top 100 pick, even acknowledging positional scarcity and room for a young

player to grow. Um, that that's what it's going to come down to me. On to the number five second baseman Nico Horner, who actually when it was all said and done, had a pretty similar season to his 2023. He just regressed a little bit across the board. And he actually got off to a really slow start and then hit 297 with 17 steals in the second half. He's a solid player, but another one with questions. This just came out last week that Nico Horner underwent surgery two weeks ago to repair his right flexor tendon. And once the Cubs arrive at spring training,

Horner will be assessed by their medical team, and that's when they'll determine the next step. So Chris, obviously, I think there's a productive player here, but kind of lots up in the air right now. yeah i um scott i notice we both have him ranked seventh right now i'm gonna put a big italics underline asterisk i don't know if i'm gonna move him down by the time we discuss it but um

that's a big concern for a guy whose skill set does not allow for much margin for error like if he comes out and just loses three percentage points and strikeout rate. All of a sudden is he a, I don't know, 260 true talent hitter with single digit home runs and the weird not stealing in the first half next last year, which we don't know if that's going to continue what part of,

because he had what? 14 steals before the All-Star break, 17 after. And obviously the All-Star Break is much larger sample size. So, like, if he's a 260 hitter with seven home runs and 25 steals, that's not nothing. But it's not a player you're particularly excited about. So we'll put a pin in Nico Horner for now, I think. I'm not that concerned about a flexor tendon surgery in early October for a position player. Like, that seems like enough time to be ready.

I suppose it'll be obvious by spring training if he's, not but that that seems like enough time so I I don't think it'll be a factor I don't plan to move him down from seventh based on this news I see Nico Horner is much more trustworthy than Bryce Terang yeah and they're only one spot apart in my rankings at second base they might be 40 spots apart in my overall rankings because Horner's now proven that he's He's a rare example of a hitter who has no power but can still be useful in fantasy consistently because of the steals. Because in points leagues, he gives you a lot of doubles, which helps. He's actually even better in points leagues. He's fine. He's not exciting, but he's actually startable at this position, which says a lot. So one, there are not a lot of examples that.

I can find of position players having flexor tendon surgery. One that I can find is Mitch Garver in 2022. He had it on July 11th and missed the rest of the season. That doesn't really tell us anything about Nico Horner. But the story I'm reading says the surgery requires a six to eight months recovery time. The Cubs haven't said the same about Nico Horner and maybe it's a different type of surgery. Garver was a catcher, which takes arm strength. But that is, that's something to keep an eye on.

Because if it's six months, well, that's actually not opening day. That gets him a couple weeks after opening day. If it's eight months, you're talking about June. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Is my math there right? Yeah, that sounds right.

So, yeah. That, again, I'm not saying I'm going to move him down. I don't like anybody else at the position. So who am I going to move him down for? Like, I just looked at it. And I was like, do I really want to move? Sandra Bogart's or Brandon Lauer or what

like Luis Renhifo maybe but he's got his own injury I just don't think there's a lot of reason for him bringing over right now because like almost nobody drafts before spring training right if spring training starts and they're given us a murky timeline

for Nico Horner okay move him down if he's in the lineup or they say he's going to be in the lineup March 15th probably don't move him down yeah number six second baseman was Marcus Semyon another where you just wonder if Father time is starting to catch up here, a down year for Semyon who hit 237 with 233 homers,

101 runs, and eight steals. And the steals continue to trend down from 25 to 14 to 8 over the past three seasons. Scott, do you think Marcus Semyon has a bounce back in him? I think there's a good chance. He's old. And so we've kind of been waiting for him to drop off. But apart from the surface level number, I don't see a lot of evidence of decline.

He struck out just as infrequently. He hit the ball just as hard, which is to say not very, but it always worked for him before. He's been, in fact, if you look at his stat cast readings, they're virtually identical to 2022 when nobody was talking about a Marcus Simeon decline. It's just that he ran a lot more in 2022.

to. And I think that's the kind of X factor for Simeon. Does he get back to running? I'm not saying he has to to be a top five second baseman in fantasy as weak as second base is, but that puts more pressure on his bat, obviously, if he doesn't get back to running. What you don't see is a decline in sprint speed. I mean, a little bit, but he's still 81st percentile. He was 84th the year before. You don't really see any kind of decline in contact skills. You don't really see any decline in defense. So I, I'm, I'm with Scott. Like, this was since Marcus Simions, 2019 breakthrough, he had outperformed his expected Wobah by at least 12 points every year, at least 10 points every year. And some years, it was 21, like in 2023. Last year, he underperformed his expected Wobah. Sorry.

he had overperformed. Did I say underperformed every year? He had overperformed every year from 2019 through 2023 by at least 10 points. Last year, he underperformed by 13. This was actually only his third worst expected Wobah since 2019. So in terms of the skills that we typically rely on, it doesn't appear to be any collapse for Marcus Simeon. It was just that the results weren't there. So I mentioned earlier, there's an old second baseman I'm probably going to draft the most of. I think Marcus Simeon is a really obvious bounceback candidate. And I considered ranking him as high as third. Number seven second baseman was Michael Garcia, who also kind of had a breakout, I guess. The batting average was bad, 231, but he scored 84 runs. He had 37 seals, only hit seven homers,

underperformed his expected stats by quite a bit. Actually hits the ball kind of hard for, I guess, quote unquote speedster. But it just seems like a really streaky player. He had two months with an OPS below 460. I don't know that he's assured a job. Like if he just starts that bad again, like if he's hitting 200 by June, does he still have a job? But, you know, if the expected numbers are any indication and, you know, he just kind of bounces back, he hits 260 with like 30 steals, and that's a useful player. So Scott, how do you project someone like Michael Garcia? Yeah, that's a good question. I, I, I, I project him pessimistically because I rank him 19th at second base, even though he finished 7th.

Yeah, I mean, look, he's for a team with playoff aspirations, which we have to assume the Royals have, they just made the playoffs, he's not a starting caliber player. He doesn't, they need to upgrade. And I suspect they will. If they don't, I suppose I'll have to adjust up just for the stolen base potential. But he was, he was back. And he started to lose playing time in the second half because of it. To Paul DeYoung. It's not like they went out and got a huge upgrade.

It was a white socks cast off. And then I think you just look at the stolen base potential and like, he stole 37 bases this year. That's awesome. He was only caught stealing twice. He's not going to do that again. Like he's 66% on sprint speed. There's no way he's running a, what is that, 95% caught stealing rate again.

So like you probably, if he runs the same amount next year, I think you're lucky if he gets 30 and he probably won't run as much next year. So yeah, I'm there. It's also one where like the average exit velocity is 70th percentile. That's actually really strong. And then you look at the barrel rate, it's 10th percentile.

Lots of ground falls. Yeah, like that seems to me the case where he's just kind of a Cabrion Hayes where he just all, like he just does not hit the ball. hard in ways that actually help. The biggest red flag is the 281 on base percentage, which maybe in Roto leagues, we don't look at that so much. But to justify a lineup spot with a sub 300 OBP, you better be a standout defender at a premium position.

And Mike Al Garcia isn't. Look, something you're going to, I guess we'll see with this position second base is there a lot of these like middle infield archetype players where you'd expect like a 250 to 260 batting average 10 homers and 30 steals and if michael garcia has the job and keeps the job that's something i could see him doing and it's very similar to the next two players we're going to talk about bryson stott and and andrews himenez i just think they're all kind of in that similar archetype i think a best case scenario for garcia could be similar but it's you're asking you're hoping he does what they are pretty reliably going to do.

Yeah, the number eight second baseman was Bryson Stott. I just mentioned through three seasons. It looks like 2023 was a clear outlier, at least as of now. It's still pretty early in his career, but he's had a 245 batting average or less in two of three seasons. Bryson Stott has had a 671 OPS or less in two of three seasons, but he has provided 30 plus deals two years in a row. And again, Scott, this just kind of feels like that archetype, you know, 250, 10 homers, 30 steals. It's a helpful player in like a 12-team Rotel League, but I don't know that he's a standout if he's your starting second basement. Yeah, the biggest problems for Bryce and Stott are he tends to sit against left-handed pitchers as a left-handed here.

It doesn't always do it, but he sits enough that I think you got a downgrade. him relative to somebody like Andres Mennas. Also, he bats lower in the lineup because the Phillies obviously have a lot of good hitters. So between the sitting and the batting low in the lineup, he had a combined 122 runs in RBI this past year, which is not very good. That's fewer than Luis Garcia,

who we were just talking about that being a big problem for him. Let's take our final break when we return. We'll wrap up the top 10 second baseman. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in the number nine second baseman was Andres Jimenez, another one who did take a step back. His home runs dropped from 15 to 9. And I guess he didn't get the memo that progressive field was supposed to help with left-handed power because seemingly helped every other Guardians hitter except for Andres Jimenez. But he has provided exactly 30 steals in back-to-back seasons.

And I would expect a little bit of a bounce back here. But Chris, again, it feels like a similar projection for Jimenez and style. maybe Jimenez is a little bit better for the reasons that Scott pointed out. Yeah, I think Jimenez is a better bat for batting average. Better bet for batting average. And probably just playing time. Like he's an outrageously good defender.

So he's not going to sit unless he needs time off. I think both Stott and Jimenez, they're kind of the same guy. And they kind of had the same situation where both clearly overperformed in 2023, both underperformed a little bit in 2024. So like, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a little bit of improvement from both.

Like, if Jimenez hits 265 in 2025 with 12 home runs, that's an improvement. And I don't think that's out of the question. It's still, I think, a pretty unappetizing combination of skills and production from a fantasy player, but he's fine. He's probably okay in a Roto League. I don't know.

He's completely unexciting. I think there's no upside there. Yeah. And then your number 10, second baseman, the best for last. Willie Castro, how did we get here? Well, remember, I'm not including players who are no longer eligible at second base. He ranks much lower than this if you just look at the list in a Roto League on CBS. But I just didn't think it was helpful to talk about guys that don't have this.

eligibility anymore. So took out names like Betts and Steer and Saddam Raphaelah, Luis Arise. And again, that brings us to Willie Castro. A little foreshadowing. Scott does not even have Castro in his top 20 second baseman for next season. And he took a pretty big step back from 2023 as well. He hit 12 homers. He had 14 steals. The steals went from 33 to 14 in this environment, which just you know, if there's one thing that you were banking on, if I told you before the season, Willie Casher was going to play as much as he did, he would say, wow, he's probably a lock for 30 plus steals, but it actually was quite the opposite. He only gave us 14. And he fell off pretty hard in the second half. Scott, you know, Willie Castro, a fine utility player, it feels like he was thrust into more playing time than he should have because the twins just had so many injuries this year. Yeah, and that's part of the reason why I don't rank him in the top 20 for next year is he's he's very versatile. And so that's going to keep him a semi-regular player,

but he played so much this year that I think he wound up being top 10 by default. Because it wasn't actually that good at anything. He just compiled. He compiled by being in the lineup while guys who miss time with injury. And there are a lot of guys who miss time with injury. You'll see it. You'll see some of their names when we talk about our top tens for next year. Top 12s for next year.

Yeah, top 12. You'll see some of those names. but I expect Willie Castro to play less than he did, and I hope some of these better players play more than they did, which is why it was easy to keep pushing Willie Castro down. I mean, if you're not going to, if you can't count on him to be an impactful base dealer, there just isn't a lot there of value for fantasy.

All right, well, again, that was your top 10 second baseman from this past season. Kutel Marte, Jose Altuve, Bryce Tarang, Luis Garcia, Nika Horner, Marcus Simeon, Michael Garcia, Bryson Stott, Andres Jimenez, and Willie Castro. Just want to quickly hit some news and notes before we take a look at those top 12 for next season. And up first, Sunny Gray is on track to have a normal offseason after ending the regular season on the IL with right forearm flexor tendonitis. Kind of scary, something we need to watch in the offseason. Mason Wynn underwent surgery to have a cyst removed from his hand. David Fry will have his right elbow examined by Dr. Keith Meister next week.

He dealt with right elbow inflammation in late June, which might explain why he slowed down so much. It basically coincides with first three months, David Frye was awesome. He hit 310 with eight homers, four steals, and a 945 OPS. Final three months, he hit 2.11 with six homers and a 646 OPS. Or maybe he just turned back into David Frye. Both of those are possibilities. He had a good postseason, didn't he?

Yes, he did. I mean, he had that one big home run, I know, and that wasn't his only home run. So I kind of, I didn't move Drew. I didn't move David Frye. I almost called him Drew. I didn't move David Frye. Way back up my rankings at catcher, but I got him back in the top 24, at least. Yeah.

In 10 games in the postseason, Fry hit 286 with two home runs, 8 RBI, and in 869 OPS. Just some updates on venues for next season. The Oakland A's, I guess Oakland No More, are going to be playing in Sacramento-Sutter Health Park. And it does sound like there are renovations being made to that ballpark. And, you know, as we learn more, I believe they're going from turf to grass or vice versa. One of those. No, yeah, they're, I believe they are installing grass. They were playing on field turf before this.

Yeah, so they're installing grass. They're supposed to be making the dugouts bigger to, you know, obviously accommodate major league teams. And making changes to the batter. Apparently they have a big video board in center field in the batter's eye and the batter's eye is very like skinny and so it's been a tough place to hit and a lot of people say it's because of the batter batters eye there. So I don't know. Like if they improve the batter's eye and like the ball flies like it's supposed to out

there like maybe Oakland A's hitters are gonna be awesome. I don't know exactly yet but as we learn more we will let you know. Poor Joey Estes though. This is just all. It's so bad. It's so bad. It doesn't have to happen. Right. It's so stupid.

You look at the other thing we're going to talk about, and this was like a force major, right? Is that the right term? I have no idea. That was like an act of God forced a team out of a stadium. Yeah. This is just like their lease doesn't end for like a couple more years in Oakland. I'm pretty sure. Like they could have just stayed in Oakland.

It's all so stupid. Yep. That other situation you were talking about is the Tampa Bay Rays, not exactly sure where they will play, but it sounds like Tropicana Field will not be an option, at least early on in the season, because the roof actually got ripped off during this most recent hurricane down in Florida.

So I think I've already kind of heard some options bandied about. Maybe George Steinbrenner Field, where I believe the Yankees play their preseason, their spring training games, or Dunedin's possibilities. So those teams all have minor league teams that play there. Right. That Dunedin, Lakeland, Steinbrenner Field, like all the ones in the Tampa area have Class A affiliates who already have their schedule set.

So yeah, I think there's a chance that they never play in Tropicana Field again. Because the estimates that have been bandied about have been, it's going to cost $100 million to replace the roof. Wow. and they're already play I don't I think they're planning to break ground on the new stadium in January of next year so if that's going to be ready by 2020

got eight is that three years from now I mean three years it just might not make sense and you can't play in Tropicana without a roof because it doesn't have a drainage system so I think there's a legitimate chance

that they are playing. I think from what I've read, the most likely outcome is possibly Disney's wide world of sports. Is that what they still call it? Where the Braves used to do spring training, I think, in Orlando. But it's possible they don't play in Tampa at all the next couple of years.

Yeah. It's a bad situation. We could legitimately have two major league teams playing in minor league ballparks, or even worse, if it's, you know, the wide world of sports in Disney, It's like, yeah, it's...

Yeah, and this one is... That seems like the likeliest outcome at this point. And this one's just obviously like bad luck. Like you said, it's just unfortunate. Japanese starting pitcher Shinsuke Ogasawara. I'm gonna have to look into that name because that's a bit of a tough one. He will be posted for MLB teams this offseason

and he's a 27-year-old leftie this year in Japan. He pitched to a 312 ERA with a 120 whip. Just 82 strikeouts over 144. and a third. 5.1K per 9, 1.4 walks per 9. He has had better strikeout seasons in the past, and it sounds like it's a low 90s fastball, good change-up, a slow curve ball.

I don't think he's anywhere near like a Imanaga-type pitcher. But, you know, we'll learn more about his scouting report in the off-season, and, you know, he could be an innings eater for somebody. Point out one thing. He had a 312 ERA this year. His team played in the Central League in Japan. the average ERA, he had a 312, the average ERA there was 288 this season.

Wow. Japan is in the middle of like a 1968 style deadball era. Wow. It's wild. Yeah, the average OPS in Japan last year, 645. I just saw a report that Fran Mill Reyes is staying in Japan for another year. They need him. They need all the power.

The only guy who can hit for power. Yeah. Lastly, rest in peace to legendary. Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela, famously known for Fernando Mania in 1981. He started the season with eight straight complete games, five of which were shutouts. And obviously, this is way before my time, but just the magnitude that he had on baseball and obviously, you know, Hispanic and Mexican culture, you know, it's a big loss to the Dodgers and obviously the game of baseball. So rest in peace there to Fernando Valenzuela. Early 2025, second base rankings.

We are going to compare and contrast Scott's top 12 here. And starting with the top six for Scott. We have Catelle Marte, Jose Al-Tuvres, Marcosemian, Jordan Westberg, and Luis Garcia. Guess what, Chris? Same exact top six. We have not talked. Love when we agree.

We have not talked about Ozzy Albies or Jordan Westberg yet. And so let's just quickly talk about those two. Yeah. Injury real season. I said earlier in the show, there are five good second baseman, like ones I feel confident or good. and two of them we haven't mentioned yet. Albies and Westberg.

Yeah, and it was another injury-riddled season for Ozzy Albies, but such bad luck. It's not his fault. Limited to 99 games with a fractured right big toe and then a fractured left wrist. And I mean, you'll kind of, you'll hear this as a theme as we recap the positions. A lot of players miss time with either a fractured finger,

fractured wrist, fractured hand. Because again, it's like control in baseball. It's kind of all over the place right now. But when he was healthy, Ozzy Albi is, wasn't great either. Maybe he was playing through the injury. He hit 251 with 10 homers, eight steals, 707 OPS. Scott, in general, Albies feels like a player that when he has these down years or injury riddled seasons, by the dip in the ADP the following season. Yeah, it's broken bones. Two of the last three years, broken bones got the better of him. And I don't think his bones are

especially brittle. He just has these freak accidents this year. It was a broken toe. and a broken wrist, and in 2022, it was a broken foot and a broken pinky. He's got to drink more milk, Scott. He's going to drink more milk. I guess. I don't know, but like he's been insanely reliable

throughout his career, apart from the injury shortened seasons. And we could look at the actual numbers from this season, 251 batting average 707 OPS. Okay, that's not great. But the same thing, the same was true in 2022.

He just didn't, he didn't get the full season for his number. to normalize. So I don't think it's really fair to hold that against Ozzy Albies. He's still in the prime of his career. He's going to be 28 next year. And I think there's a good chance he stays healthy and gives you 25 to 30 homers with 15 to 20 steals, which would be hugely valuable at this position, obviously. And I do wonder if we will hear anything this offseason about him only batting right-handed because we saw that down the stretch. It was because of-

Not a lot didn't go too well. Yeah. I don't think we will. I wish it went better. I'd love to see it, but I would be very surprised if he abandoned switch hitting based on what we saw. And, you know, he was coming back. He was hurrying back from a badly fractured wrist. So like, the expectation was probably that he'd struggle.

I don't think the reason he struggled was because he was batting right-handed against right-handed pitch. but it didn't, I don't think it did anything his performance to convince anyone. Okay, this needs to be his permanent arrangement. The number five ranked second baseman for both of you is Jordan Westberg, who also had himself a breakout season. And my early, very limited research, Westberg is somebody I feel like I want a lot of next year. He hit 264, 18 home runs, six steals, 792 OPS and 107 games. he also missed time with a fractured right hand.

But I love everything except for the home ballpark. I mean, I wish this guy played in like Cincinnati. It would be amazing. But even with that, I think he could have an even bigger breakout next year. He hits the ball hard. The expected stats are awesome. 91st percentile sprint speed. Chris, I think we could see Westberg run even more next year,

which is what we saw from Gunner Henderson from year once a year two as well. Yeah, that would be my hope because I do have some concerns about how much power he's going to hit for at the major league level, mostly because of the home ballpark, like you mentioned. Like there are, there are things to be concerned about with the plate discipline. He's a very heavy free swinger. He swings and misses an awful lot.

In zone contact rate below average. Like, there are concerns, but I think the power is good enough that I wouldn't be that concerned about it if he didn't play in Baltimore. It might, I just worry it might be like a 25 homer ceiling, when it should be a 30 homer ceiling. That being said, he's got a lot of opo power.

Baltimore actually weirdly, not one of his worst parks in terms of expected home runs. Boston was worse, which has that deep right center. So that makes sense. Kansas City was worse. But yeah, I think if you're looking for Jordan Westberg to emerge as one of the next great second basement, I think it probably needs to be 25 homers. 20 stolen bases. In a really good lineup,

I think that's within the realm of possibility. I just don't know how comfortable we should be projecting that kind of stolen base potential. I think it's possible. I think he's certainly physically talented enough for it. Whether they'll let him do it is a different question. 100%. I could see him hitting, you know,

I think a fair projection is probably 23 to 25 home runs, 10 to 12 steals. and anything on top of that is just gravy, but based on a sprint speed, at least, I would not be surprised if he goes out and steals 20 bases next year. You mentioned he didn't run much in the minors either, right? Yeah. Yeah, I'm not counting on steals for Westberg,

even though he runs fast. Yep. 7 through 12 in the second base rankings for Scott. We have Nico Horner, Bryce Terang, Zander Bogartz, Brandon Lau, excuse me, Glaber Torres, and Jackson Holiday. And Chris is 7 through 12, Nico Horner with italicized,

underlined asterisk, everything next to and underneath his name. Number eight is Bryce Terang. Number nine is Zander Bogartz, followed by Brandon Lowe, Luis Ruanhifo, and also Jackson Holiday. So some differences here. Scott has Glaber Torres in his top 12. Chris doesn't. Chris has Luis Ruanhifo in his top 12, and Scott doesn't. So let's quickly run through some of these players.

And Scott, I know Brandon Lough is someone you typically like. And when he's on the field, he's pretty good. He's a big power producer. you know he's going to miss time. Nearly identical seasons, 2023 and 2024. The problem is he played less than 110 games in both. Yeah, I mean, that's annoying,

but obviously the per game production for Brandon Lau is rare at this position. He might be the best pure power hitter at the position. I hope he gets traded. I think he's at a point where it would make sense for the race to trade him. And then at least, okay, he might still get injured, but we wouldn't have to worry about him platooning so much

since that's such a raise thing. And I think it makes sense to put him in the top 10 here, just hoping that he plays a little more because we're at a point at this position already here where we're just hoping for things. I mean, Chris and I both have Jackson Holiday 12th. It's an even more extreme case of just hoping for something, because we obviously didn't see a lot this year

to suggest Jackson Holiday as Major League Ready. Chris, talk to me about Luis Renhifa, who you have inside of your top 12 at second base. He ran wild in a small sample size, hit 300 with 24 steals in just 78 games. Is that speed real? I know the Angels were really aggressive. He's also just 37th percentile sprint speed,

and he's coming back from wrist surgery, which also has its concerns. Did he miss top? early in the season with an injury. Like there was a point where he was not available, right? Because it's just that 34th percentile sprint speed just that that feels fake. He had tightness in his hamstring in March. So before the season.

Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. That's what I remember. Yeah, yeah. He missed time and he missed a lot of time in spring with a hamstring enter. So that because like that he's not a burner by any means. But he had been above average.

in sprint speed before last season. He stole 24 bases in 78 games like that. That's weird about it for Renhifo because his sprint speed was down, but he was much more aggressive as a base dealer. And that makes me think that it's probably like an artifact of how they record the data where, you know, I think it's based on like competitive runs

and maybe he only stretched himself out when he needed to. So he had like that's that's the thought for me at least. And that's the hope when looking for Luis Renhifo because if he can be a 35 stolen base guy, I think there's some upside here. Like I think the skill set's not that much different from Andreas Ramenez and Bryce Stott, Bryce and those guys, except that I think Luis Renhifo is probably going to bat in a more advantageous spot in the lineup, probably first or second.

And if he can be a 265 guy with 35 stolen. basis, I think he'll probably hit, you know, 15 or so homers like he did the previous two seasons. If that comes with 35 steals, I think that's a really interesting player. He might score 95 runs. If he goes back to being a single digit steel guy or even just like a 20 steel guy, that's probably just an also ran, even at second base. So it's a lot going on the stolen bases. But with Ron Washington, how aggressive they were, I mean, didn't like Nolan's

Shanwell steal like eight bases or something? There were some weird, some weird results for the angels. And yeah, he had 10 long bases. You'll remember before Mike Trout tore his meniscus. Yeah, he was running a touch. Yeah, he was back to being a base dealer. So I think that's, Ron Washington was pushing. Yeah, I think that's a real thing.

Like, I'm not actually that worried about Luis Renhifos speed. Obviously, I'm ranking him as a top 12 second baseman. But yeah, I think he can be like a super deluxe version of the Andres Jimenez and, Bryce and stock types. Yeah. If I could draw my one stat on Renhifo here, points per game, I mentioned only two players at second base had more than three. You had Cattel Marte at 3.68, Jose Altuve at 3.05. Third at the position in points per game was actually Luis Renhifo at 2.92.

I rank him 13th, so he's just outside the top 12 for me. But, yeah, I mean, I see that. I'd rather take a shot on him doing something like that again than just settle for Andres Jimenez or Bryson Stott. But I'm kind of doubtful he can do all that again. Not maybe the stolen bases, maybe. But the 300 batting average, you know, that's obviously his expected batting average was like 261.

And that's closer to what he's hit normally. So I think it's major, it may be too good to be. true for Luis Rehnhifo, but he's going to play a lot and I'll gamble a little for upside at this position. And to be clear, like, you've got Glaver Torres at 11 instead of Renhifo? Yeah, I think that's fine. Like, I think betting on a Luis or Glaver Torres bounce back, which happened in the second half. He had a 780 OPS in the second half, stopped running, which is a concern because that had helped boost his value the last couple of seasons. And obviously he's a free agent, so we don't know where he's going to be playing.

But yeah, if you want to, yeah, I think it's fine to swap Glaber for Luis Renhifo. If you want to go for a little more safety and Jackson Holiday is just kind of a, we'll throw him at 12 and wish. I think we both kind of feel that way, right? Yeah, that's, that's exactly what I said. And with Glaber Torres, when I published my article, I originally had him like 15th rather than 11th, and it was just one of those situations where it's like, I'm overthinking this. Glaibor Torres is still young, has a good track record, is getting out of the pressure cooker

of New York in all likelihood, and there's a good chance. There's a really good chance. He's a top 10 second basement again, so I'm going to stick him 11th. With Jackson and Holiday, just quickly mentioned, because I'm sure we'll talk about him all offseason. There is nothing at the Major League level that we can point to and say this is happening next year for sure.

In 60 career games, he is batting 189 with five homers, four steals, a 565 OPS, and a 33% strikeout rate. But we know he has massive prospect pedigree. He comes from the family. Obviously, his dad was a great player.

And we know that progress is not linear with top prospects. We've seen this time and time again. The first year that Mike Trout was called up, he was bad. And then he came back the next year and he returned like first round value for fantasy.

So I'm not saying that's going to happen for a holiday, but it's also not out of the question. So just keep that in mind. Don't write him off yet. Let's see what Jackson holiday can. Apparently there's another holiday coming who might be a number one overall pick. I think he's in high school, right?

Something like that. This is what's going on. His dad's like a coach, right? That's like... Yep. I think so. Yeah, that makes sense. I will just say like,

you don't want to overreact to 60 games. I do think, like future projections for Jackson Holiday have have to be lower than they were before because the biggest thing was this was supposed to be like 65 maybe 70 grade hit tool it was supposed to be like as projectable as a hit tool can be for a player this young and then in the majors and even in AAA he had a lot of contact issues. In-zone contact rate was below average at the major league level.

I believe it was around average at AAA as well. That's when the whole thing is built on a foundation of plus plus hit tool and now it looks like you're hoping plus but maybe just average, that that's tough. On the other hand, he's not 21 yet, right? He doesn't turn 21 until next season. Yeah. Or maybe in December, something like that. Yeah.

So you don't want to, like, he is younger than, I think, all but like two players who were drafted in the top 10 in this year's MLB draft. So, like, we're not writing Charlie Condon off. We shouldn't write Jackson Holiday off either. Yep. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will do that again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcast. Thank you.