Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 Second Base & Shortstop Tiers! Plus Rhys Hoskins to the Brewers! (1/24 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 24, 2024

Second base tiers can only start with one name: Mookie Betts (3:05). ... Jose Altuve is still going later than he should (5:24). ... Should Matt McLain and Zack Gelof be going so far apart (9:36)? ...... Luis Arraez is such a unique player (19:37). ... Is Scott too low on Thairo Estrada (26:11)? ... News (35:02): Rhys Hoskins signed with the Brewers, James Paxton signed with the Dodgers and Aroldis Chapman signed with the Pirates! ... Are we worried about Corey Seager's injuries (45:51)? ... Is Gunnar Henderson elite (47:53)? ... Is Bo Bichette ranked too low (50:51)? ... Any love for Dansby Swanson (58:49)? To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Hello there. Welcome into Tafy Baseball today. Frank Scott and Chris here on Wednesday, January 24th.
Starting point is 00:00:33 Today on the show, we're breaking down Scott's second base and shortstop tiers. plus we had James Paxton signed with the Dodgers and a roll to Chapman sign with the Pirates. Plus, we had some interesting tidbits from the weekend that we did not get to on Monday's podcast. So I do want to make sure that we have time for all of that, which means we're going to jump right in. We will start with second base tiers
Starting point is 00:00:57 and we will begin with the top tier, Scott, which we mentioned on the previous episode, The First Rounders. One name at second base. That's right. Mookie Bets, who will be able to, also has outfield eligibility, and it's now back-to-back seasons with 35 plus homers, 117 plus runs, 12-plus steals, the NFBC ADP is 5.
Starting point is 00:01:20 You can quibble over the batting average, but it feels like Mookie Betts deserves to be a top five pick in both head-to-head points leagues and category leagues. I feel like you would agree, Scott. Yeah, I do agree. He is my number five in categories leagues and points. I think he's a little bit higher. What's interesting about this is, okay, so other than that random year where Trey Turner was second base eligible, because he got traded to the Dodgers when they still had Corey Seeger and retained second base eligibility into the next year.
Starting point is 00:01:53 So other than that one year, you have to go back to Jose Altuvae's prime, I think, to find a first round second baseman in fantasy. and now we get Mooki Betz there who it sounds like this year like second base is just his position. I don't even know if he'll play enough outfield to be eligible there next year. But for as long as we've waited for a first round second baseman,
Starting point is 00:02:24 you probably shouldn't draft Moogie Betts to play second base because second base is, as we'll see, pretty deep. A lot to like here. I mean, every infield position is pretty deep. Outfield is pretty deep. Outfield is very much not deep. And so, you know, versatility is nice.
Starting point is 00:02:41 But if you are going to draft moogie bets in round one, the plan at that point in the draft should be, okay, this guy's going in my outfield. And that's true, whether it's a three outfielder league or a five outfielder league. Something I've learned about outfield early on here in the process is that the elite, you know, I guess more than the elite, but, you know, the top 24 or so, I feel pretty good about that at outfield and then I really like late round options.
Starting point is 00:03:08 It's kind of the middle of outfield that doesn't feel so good. So maybe you want to get three outfielders kind of early on and then if you're playing a five outfielder league you can grab some upside names later but we'll save that for the outfield episode. Let's continue on with second base and the next tier is the also elite tier and it features three names,
Starting point is 00:03:27 Jose Altuvae, Ozzi Albies and Marcus Semyon. The aforementioned Altuvae, used to be a first round pick. He's just kind of settled in now as like a third, fourth round pick the past couple of years. He is going last of this trio once again, and Chris, you will get the first word here on Altuve.
Starting point is 00:03:47 Still provides batting average, power, and speed. He averaged 3.9 fantasy points per game in head-to-head points leagues last year. That was second best at the position behind only Mookie Betts. The clear knock on him is that, or knocks, he's getting up there in age. He turns 34 in May,
Starting point is 00:04:05 and he has missed 21% of his games due to injury dating back to 2018. Yeah, I mean, you look at the game logs and it's like last year was the first time it really cost him. And it wasn't entirely his fault. You know, the hit by pitch in the WBC, it obviously could happen to anybody.
Starting point is 00:04:22 Yeah, before that, it had been like 20 to 35 games per year. I think the most he had missed was 38 and 2019. which obviously that's not great, but if you're still getting 30 homers and you're still getting a 900 OPS bat, you're still getting that 300 average, I don't know if it makes too much sense to ding Jose Altuve too much for injury
Starting point is 00:04:46 because, yeah, okay, he might miss a couple weeks. I don't necessarily know if I'd put the injury prone tag on him yet. But when you're talking about this range of the draft, okay, we're, We're slicing thin anyway, so maybe, you know, move him below these other guys. But I think he belongs in that tier for sure. I want to point out for Jose Altuve. And I understand he might be a little better in points leagues because the strikeout rate is so low,
Starting point is 00:05:19 he might be a little better in points leagues than in Roto. But, you know, he contributes across four of the five categories in Roto, RBI being the exception. He contributes well. I am looking through it right now, and unless I'm overlooking somebody, Jose Al-Tuve had the fifth most points per game of any hitter last year. So far and away, the most at second base. Well, okay, mooky bets is one of the hitters,
Starting point is 00:05:52 but we've already covered mooky-bets is really more of an outfielder. Fifth best among hitters. You got bets ahead of them, Freddie Freeman, not an order. necessarily bets. Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Shohei Otani, Ronald de Kone of course. And then it looks like
Starting point is 00:06:08 Yordnavarez is tied with Jose Altuve. So, look, I rank Jose Altuve second at the position. I think most people rank him
Starting point is 00:06:22 more like fourth, right? They haven't behind Albiz and Simeon. So that's why I tear him with those guys. I mean, also because I couldn't make the justification to draft Jose Al-TuVe
Starting point is 00:06:34 in the first round and the tier above this one is the first rounders. But I tear him with Albi's and Simeon feeling pretty confident that if I'm waiting till the end of that tier, Al-Tu-A's going to be the one I get.
Starting point is 00:06:50 And I feel great about that if that's the case. I think he really since the astro-sign stealing scandal, I feel like Altuva has consistently been one of the most underrated, undervalued players in fantasy. We got some breaking news. Uh-oh.
Starting point is 00:07:08 Reese Hoskins to the Brewers. Reese. 34 million. Sorry to the Jake Bauer tithe. Oh, man, you know, there was a rumor recently that Garrett Cooper was drawing some interest from the Milwaukee Brewers, and I have a few Deep League shares. All right, I'll give you guys the option. Do we talk about Reese Hoskins now or save it for the news and notes?
Starting point is 00:07:30 Save it for news and notes. Okay, so that is exactly what we'll do. Let's continue on here with the second base tiers. The near elite includes eight names. So a pretty massive tier here. Nico Horner, Matt McLean, Hassan Kim, Cotel Marte, Bryson Stott, Zach Geloff, Glaber Torres, and Andres Jimendez,
Starting point is 00:07:48 who is one tier lower in a head-to-head points league. And why is that the case? Well, he hit 15 home runs with 30 steals. which is obviously very useful, more so I think, in a Categories league. 5.2% walk rate, 2.7 fantasy points per game. Not ideal for that format. So again, Jimenez is a name that drops down in a head-ted points league out of the near elite tier.
Starting point is 00:08:13 Scott Cattel Marte is someone who stands out from this group as the only one who won't offer double-digit steals. But he's still a fine player. He produced a top 60 overall season in Roto. He averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game, which was 8th best at second base. So he belongs to in this tier, but he just has, I guess, a slightly different skill set from everyone else in this tier. Yeah, he stands out in that way, but this is a diverse group of players in terms of what you can expect them to deliver. So it's a difficult tier to work with.
Starting point is 00:08:51 I do think in terms of just overall output, they all belong in the same tier. Obviously, that's why I set it up this way. But you've got a no steel guy in Ketelmarte. You've got a no power guy and Nico Horner. You've got a couple of all-around upside guys who only did it over half a season in Matt McLean and Zach Gelloff.
Starting point is 00:09:12 So there's a little more reason for skepticism with them. You have kind of a low power output, but not as bad as Nico Horner and still good stolen bases but not as good batting average as Nico Horner. A couple of those guys in Bryson Stott and Hassan Kim. Glaber Torres
Starting point is 00:09:32 is sort of like Kattel Marte and he's pretty much just power. There's a little more speed there with Glaboros but not a significant amount. And then, you know, Andres Jimenez, I guess he's closer to the Bryson Stott-Hasson-Kim
Starting point is 00:09:48 category. but certainly wasn't as good as them last year. Now, the thing that stands out among this group, if you're drafting based on tiers at least, Scott should have a lot of Zach Gelloff. I have. Because he is, you look at ADP, I'm not looking at it since January 1st,
Starting point is 00:10:12 which is typically how we do it at this point. But overall on NFC, yeah, since January 1st, 129.6. Nico Horner is 57.4. Matt McLean is 59.1. Now, I understand the gap between Zach Galloff and Matt McLean in their price
Starting point is 00:10:34 to a certain extent because Matt McLean was a more well-regarded prospect of the two, but I think that gap is probably too big. Well, clearly I feel the same way. And as I've mentioned a few times, times I come out with my rankings before there's really even any ADP data available. So that was one of the things that caught me by surprise, especially since it feels like throughout the second half last season, I was fighting people on Zach Galloff, me being on the low side.
Starting point is 00:11:04 Yeah. And suddenly a new year comes and nobody likes Zach Gallif. Funny how that happens. And like McLean is in the better situation in terms of it's a much better home park. It's a much better lineup. But it's not. not inconceivable that Matt McLean could have a stretch where he's just, he struggles and gets sent down or finds himself struggling for playing time.
Starting point is 00:11:30 It's a lot harder to see that for Zach Galloff. The strikeout rate was bad for McLean. 29%. And it got worse. It got worse the longer he was up. So you wonder if his season hadn't ended in, in August. You wonder how that would have. turned out if the batting average would have dropped to like the 260 range it finished at
Starting point is 00:11:54 290 i think it probably would have i think mclean is probably more like a 260 hitter in which case he looks that much more like zach gelloff so i xb a for both of them right in the 250 255 range so i think this is it's an interesting tier because i could see you playing needs more in a rotodraft especially and singling out different players in this tier rather than it just wait until the very last one. I already broke that down. But it's also interesting because it spans such a large stretch of the draft that it really affords you the opportunity to wait,
Starting point is 00:12:29 which is kind of the whole idea behind the tiers approach, is, okay, Matt McLean is going this far ahead of Zach Gelloff, but practically speaking, is he going to be that much more valuable? No, so you could afford to wait at second base and instead direct your focus to positions where the drop-off in talent is much clearer. It's kind of interesting, like there are eight players in this range.
Starting point is 00:12:55 Yeah, in this tier. They kind of all have an expensive versus cheap one. Like, Nico Horner 57.4, Bryson Stott, 105.2. Matt McLean, 59.1. Zek-Galloff, 129.6. Hassan Kim, Andres, Andreas Semenas, 81.9. And then Catelle-Marté is just kind of,
Starting point is 00:13:18 his own thing. And I think he's the best hitter of this group. It's just the lack of stolen bases. And obviously the injury history makes it harder to jump on him. But just in terms of pure hitting ability, I think he laps the field in this group. There have been a couple times already in mock drafts where my pick is up.
Starting point is 00:13:43 And I'm really gravitating toward Matt McLean because I do like the upside. I do like what he showed as a rookie last year. But then I see all these second basemen out there who could do similar things and I know are going to be available much longer. And so I go a different direction. And I have yet to regret that,
Starting point is 00:14:05 but, you know, it does, drafting this way does pretty much guarantee I'm not getting Matt McLean or Nico Horner. And so you have to be okay with like, that's your favorite sleeper or breakout candidate or just somebody you have to have, then I can't imagine tiering them with the group ahead here, like Marcus Simeon and Ozzy Albies, but you're probably just not following the tiers approach if you're doing that.
Starting point is 00:14:31 One other thing I want to bring up about this very large tier, because, you know, tiers kind of like rankings. I'm constantly massaging them throughout draft season, and I don't feel like it's ever perfect. and things are going to change. That's why different versions come out over the course of draft prep season. You look at this near-elite tier.
Starting point is 00:14:52 And you know, I talked on the last podcast how I like my tiers to line up between positions. So the players in the near-el-el-leet tier at second base and he's dual-eligible at third base. I want him in the near-el-el-leet tier at third base. But the name's in the near-el-el-leet tier here, Nico Horner, Matt McLean, Ha-Sung-Kim, Katel-Marte, Bryson-Stat, Zach Gelloff,
Starting point is 00:15:12 Glabert, Andres, Aminez, compare that to the players in the near, in the near elite tier at third base. Mani Machado, L.A. La Cruz, Nolan Aeronado, Royce Lewis, Hassan Kim.
Starting point is 00:15:28 So Hassan Kim is near the front of the near elite tier at second base. He's near the back of the near elite tier at third base. And I don't know about you. I prefer that third base group a lot more. Right. So there's a lot, there's a lot of risk. in this group.
Starting point is 00:15:46 I'm wondering if I need to... I'm wondering what I need to do about that. You need another tier. Well, or do I need to skip a tier? As we get deeper into second base, you'll see what I'm talking about. But I wonder if there's not really a near elite tier at second base unless I'm just going to put Nico Horner and Matt McLean in it,
Starting point is 00:16:06 which I'm not terribly inclined to do. Because then I'm eliminating a lot of the ability to wait there that I've enjoyed to this. this point. I'm wondering if I just need to skip that near elite tier at second base. That's where I'd go. Yeah, those are all fair questions. I did, you guys talked about a lot of players and a lot of different points throughout that time, but one thing I did want to point out the difference between Matt McLean and Zach Gelloff. And this doesn't explain why they have a 70 point difference in ADP because that that probably shouldn't be the case. But Zach Gelloff's underlying
Starting point is 00:16:39 plate discipline is a lot scarier for whatever that's worth. Uh, 16% swinging shrunk. rate, that's compared to 10.5% for Matt McLean, 75% zone contact for Zach Gleoff. That's 85% for Matt McLean. So those are two pretty distinct differences, which I think lower the floor quite a bit for Zach Loff.
Starting point is 00:16:58 But again, I don't know that it explains the 70 pick difference between the two. Yeah, I think McLean kind of, sorry, kind of toes that passive versus patient line a little bit. If I remember correctly, he had a really, really low swing rates on both in zone and out of zone pitches.
Starting point is 00:17:18 Yeah, and it was weird because Matt McLean walked a lot in the minors, but didn't really walk too much in the majors, too. So I think there will be an adjustment for him. I don't know if it's just he'll be more aggressive overall, or maybe some of that passivity will turn into walks for Matt McLean. But something will probably change for him. The next best things tier features five names. Luis Arise, Nolan, Gorman, Jonathan, India, Tommy Edmund,
Starting point is 00:17:43 Brandon Lowe, like the previous tier, I mean, all different kinds of skill sets that you're looking for. Louisa Rize, we know mostly batting average, not much else. Gorman and Brandon Lowe, when healthy, premier power at the position. Jonathan India and Tommy Edmund kind of offering a little bit of power and speed within this tier as well. Luis Arise, so unique because he technically finished 86th overall in Categories League last year. But it was so front-loaded by batting average. He was the single biggest batting average contributor in fantasy baseball last year, but was barely a positive contributor in any other category.
Starting point is 00:18:21 Not even barely. If you look at the Fangraphs auction calculator, Louisa Ryas was worth $15.5 last season, based on his actual performance. He's worth $15.5. $17.6 of that $15.5 came from batting average. You can do the math there. And yeah, he's a sub-replacement-level fantasy player in four categories.
Starting point is 00:18:53 And then he is far and away because he never walks either. So he gets that massive bat number that also helps your batting average. One of the hardest players to figure out how to value. And it's completely team-dependent, I think. And there is a way to value him where, if you draft some early round hitters that kind of slack off and batting average
Starting point is 00:19:15 and Adolius Garcia comes to mind Kyle Swarber maybe even a Matt McLean who I guess his jury is still out on what he'll do with batting average Louisa RISE can kind of fit a team mold like that but in a categories league I think it has to be very
Starting point is 00:19:30 specific where you're going to get him here's what I think you don't do with Louisa Rize though you don't draft him like he's going to hit 354 yes yeah so he's one a batting title back to back years. This last year, 354, the year before was 316. And he entered last year a career 314 hitter. So mathematically speaking, 354 is an outlier. It's very hard. The math works out in such a way that it's very hard for a hitter to do that. In fact, we almost never see it in the modern game. And maybe the shift band makes it a little more possible, but I think more realistically, 315, 320 is what you're looking at for a rise,
Starting point is 00:20:18 which still makes him a standout in the category, but it's not superhuman. Yeah, we already saw it last year. You know, in the second half, he hit 314. Yeah. And, you know, I remember getting some flack in my rankings when I had him outside of the top 12 at the midway point of the season.
Starting point is 00:20:36 It was, well, he's hitting 380. And it's like, yeah, but. He's hitting 380 to just barely sneak into the top 12 at second base, right? Like that that's the thing is that it's not, it's not that Luis Arias isn't valuable when he's hitting 370 or whatever it is. It's that when he's hitting 320, which is what I think the ATC projections have him for, 319. He comes out as like barely a top 10 option there.
Starting point is 00:21:08 And it's only because of his batting average. And even if you look at a rise and you think, all right, his skill set lends itself to a points league. He averaged three fantasy points per game on the nose, which was tied for 13th at the position, which again is solid, but not necessarily a standout. So proceed with caution. It's going to be worse if he doesn't hit 354. Yeah, exactly right. Let's take our first break when we return. I do have some pushback on where Scott has ranked Tyro Estrada.
Starting point is 00:21:35 We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. We continue on with second base tiers. The next one is the fallback options or option. Just one name, Tyro Estrada. And I mentioned before the break, I do have some pushback here for you, Scotty, because last year I was definitely skeptical. I had Estrada written up as a bust.
Starting point is 00:21:54 And what did he do? He came back, basically had the same season as he did in 2022, but did it in even less games. So he hit 271, 14 homers, 23 steals in 120 games, has hit 260 or better, exactly 14 home runs, 21 plus steals two years in a row. The stack has data is bad.
Starting point is 00:22:14 I realize that. But he kind of has this ESOC paradeous thing going on where all of his home runs went to the pull side. They're left field or left center. So while we can't really explain the power using those metrics, I think him pulling the ball as much as he does kind of explains that.
Starting point is 00:22:33 And so I kind of feel like he should be in a similar tier as Tommy Edmund, maybe even a similar tier as someone like Andres Jimenez. know that there's a huge difference. You could sell me on Edmund a lot more than Andrus Jimenez because I think the batting average gap in the best case scenario for those three players, I think it's significant. I think Andres Jimenez has a lot more batting average potential than the other two. And I think if you look at what Andres Jimenez did in stolen bases down the stretch,
Starting point is 00:23:03 it seemed like he really figured out how to take advantage of those new rules. and I think there's a lot more stolen base ceiling there for him than for Estrada especially. You know, they're a similar type of player, those three. I think I have them in separate tiers is a reflection of their upside relative to each other more than anything else. But here's what I want to say,
Starting point is 00:23:30 and this is, you know, when I was saying earlier about what do I do about the tiers at second base because it seems like the near-elite tier isn't as strong as at third base. base. Maybe I should just skip the near lead tier. Part of that was because I saw thyrostrata there in all alone in the fallback options and I'm like, well, is he really that much better than Tommy Edmund or Nolan Gorman or Jonathan Indiar. Any of those guys I have in the tier ahead of them. So what I'm thinking here is maybe I skip the near elite tier at second base,
Starting point is 00:24:01 bump the Nico Horner Zach Geloff tier down to the next best things, bump that Luis a rise, Nolan Gorman tier down to the fallback options here with Thiro Estrada. And maybe
Starting point is 00:24:13 that's the fix. To do another comparison between two positions, that next best things tier where you got Luis Arise,
Starting point is 00:24:19 Nolan, Jonathan India, Tommy Edmund, Brandon Lowe. That same tier at first base is Christian Walker, Tristan
Starting point is 00:24:28 Kasa Spencer's tier, Spencer Torkelson, Yandi Diaz, Viny. Much better. Right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:34 That's got to be the fix. That's got to be the fix. either. Yeah, I mean, I don't like the idea of skipping the near elite at second base because it makes it feel like there's a bigger gap at that position than you're going to see in actual drafts because Nico Horner and Matt McLean go pretty early. But maybe it's just that Nico Horner and Matt McLean are overvalued.
Starting point is 00:24:53 Because I don't think they are significantly better than Jack Loff and Bryson Stott. McLean's on my bus list, which I think is coming out next week. Chris has his writing all over the place. I rode them. I wrote them three weeks ago, so I have no idea. It's coming out at some point. The last resorts tier at second base, 10 names, Ryan McMahon,
Starting point is 00:25:13 Edward Julian, Jorge Polanco, Brandon Drury, Davis Schneider, Whitmerfield, Jeff McNeil, Gavin Lux, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Westberg. Chris, a name in this tier of 10 that intrigues you most. Maybe even one that can graduate from this tier
Starting point is 00:25:30 this time next year. Well, I'll go with the guy who was on my sleepers list. And that's Gavin Lux, who, like, I've been pretty skeptical of Gavin Lux, even going back to his prospect days because he's just never shown the ability to hit lefties outside of like, it was basically like a month and a half stretch in AAA, I think, where he hit lefties well. But other than that, he hasn't shown that ability. But like, you look at the, the underlying data for Gavin Lux. And what you've got is a premium athlete who has shown some pop and some contact skills, not necessarily as much as we've hoped for.
Starting point is 00:26:09 And then obviously last season, the torn ASEL in spring training, he didn't get a chance to play. But he was someone who, like Mookie Betts, the Dodgers sent him to drive line. He reworked his swing. He was working on getting more bat speed. I think the report was he was generating six miles per hour, more bat speed than he had the previous year. We know he's a talented guy. We know that the play discipline has been pretty good.
Starting point is 00:26:35 we know he's a good athlete. It's just a question of getting more out of the bat. We didn't get to see it last year. Now he's got this massive drop in price. I think he's outside of the top 250 in ADP right now. So Gavin Lux is definitely someone in this group that I'll be targeting. Gavin Lux's ADP since January 1st is 268. And that's the 20.
Starting point is 00:27:01 The thing is front of that is Brandon Lau is 262. and I like him, as Scott does, quite a bit more. Scott? Scott, you are muted. You are muted, sir. Brandon Lau went undrafted in our latest rotomoc. Granted, it was just starting lineups. Not, not, bench is not included.
Starting point is 00:27:24 But like that, that should not happen. I mean, he missed some time with injury, but he still managed to hit how many home runs? Like 23? Something like that. even during an injury shortened season. So I don't know why he's being so overlooked. I think in 21 home runs.
Starting point is 00:27:40 I think in NFBC draft, it's because he doesn't provide any speed. And they're mostly deeper leagues where you need playing time. And Brandon Loud just hasn't been able to stay on the field. And there's no, there's no IL spots. He's missed 150 games over the past two years with recurring back injuries. So in deeper leagues, I could see why maybe you would pass on a player like that. Look, playing without IL spots is dumb. that's first of all.
Starting point is 00:28:05 If you're listening out there, don't do it. He stole seven bases in 109 games. He was taking advantage of the new rules. He could give you a dozen steals. It's not impossible. The final tier, the leftovers, nine names, Luis Renhifo, Brendan Rogers, Jake Cronomworth,
Starting point is 00:28:21 Michael Massey, Haraldo, Pardomo, Ahmed Rosario, Luis Garcia, Bryce Terang, and Jose Caballero. You guys don't get a single thing to say about this tier because we got to keep things moving. A couple things I wanted to promote Before we get to the news and notes, FBT is a finalist for the best baseball podcast category
Starting point is 00:28:37 in the sports podcast awards, and this is the final week to vote. Thanks to all of our listeners, we actually won the award last year. Now we're looking to go back to back. To help us bring home the hardware, you can find the link in the podcast and YouTube descriptions or scan the QR code in the top right of the screen.
Starting point is 00:28:54 Chris is helping out with the point there. The whole process should take less than a minute, and we'd really appreciate it. Thank you for your continued support. Next up, mailbag pods are starting up next week, and we have a new segment. We're going to introduce a prospect spotlight. So if you have a top prospect, you'd like us to evaluate,
Starting point is 00:29:16 leave a five-star rating on Apple and drop a prospect's name in the review. We'll choose one player to highlight in our future mailbags. Lastly, our buddy, Nick Pollock from Pitcher List, has his annual pitchcon event starting today. when you're listening Wednesday, January 24th. It's basically a five-day live stream. Not literally, obviously there are some breaks in there, but live streaming for five days straight,
Starting point is 00:29:43 the best baseball and fantasy baseball minds out there, raising money for the Sean M. Healy and AMG Center for MLS, for ALS, excuse me. So I would say follow along, some great work there, donate, going to a great cause there with ALS. I will be on Wednesday at 3 p.m. Eastern Time talking sleepers and sleepers and bust at starting pitcher. Chris will be on Thursday, 4 p.m. Eastern time grading teams off-season
Starting point is 00:30:08 moves. And Chris is also on Wednesday night, 9 p.m. Eastern time talking. That's me. I'm Wednesday night at 9 p.m. Eastern time talking starting pitcher ADP battles. You can watch live at playback.tv slash pitcher list or at pitcherlist.com slash pitchcon. All right. The news notes. Well, we've got the breaking news earlier in the podcast. Rees Hoskins and the Milwaukee Brewers are finalizing a two-year, $34 million contract with an opt-out after the first season. Reese Hoskins did not play last year due to a torn ACL. Wasn't any type of arm-related anything. ACL should be back, ready to go, spring training, all good. If we look at Milwaukee's ballpark, over the past three years, they're 24th in
Starting point is 00:31:02 general offensive park factor. If you look at home runs, they are eighth in park factor, which sounds like it's something that should bode well for one Reese Hoskins. Chris, you will get the first word here. It's, I think, an okay lineup. He's projected to back cleanup. And it's a pretty damn good ballpark
Starting point is 00:31:18 for home run. So how do you feel about Reese Hoskins to the Brewers? It's a downgrade from the Phillies in terms of both the lineup and the ballpark, I think. But you know, we weren't necessarily expecting him to be back with the Phillies this year anyway. We know what Reese Hoskins is. He's not quite Chris Davis with a K. But you look at the
Starting point is 00:31:40 last five years of batting average. 246. 226. All right. That was bad. 245, 247, 246. You're going to get around 30 homers. You're going to get a decent number of runs in RBI because he gets on base. He's going to be a drag on your batting average. But hey, that's why Louisa Rice exists, right? Yeah. I think that's Fair. And I think in a points league, Reese Hoskins should also excel a little bit more. Obviously, has walked a ton throughout his career. Scott, any initial takeaways here? Reese Hoskins joining the Brewers. Sorry to those who were in on Jake Bowers. Yeah, I mean, American Family Field, that's what it's called now, right? Such a bad name compared to Miller Park. Come on. It is, well, yeah. Does Bernie slide into like a pile of insurance paper? now or something.
Starting point is 00:32:31 It's a great place to hit, but it's, it's lighting is, like it can create shadows with that retractable roof that sometimes players have a difficult time with. And so I think that's sometimes why players go there and don't see the boon that we expect them to, to have. Based on a nine-game sample of Reese Hoskins at American Family Field, five home runs, five home runs and nine games, I think he's going to be fine there. Fair enough. All right, let's move on to the other moves here.
Starting point is 00:33:02 The Big Maple goes Hollywood. James Paxton and the Dodgers are in agreement on a one-year $11 million deal. Paxton has not been able to stay healthy. 96 innings pitched last year. Those were his most since 2019. But he was pretty damn good with the Red Sox. His first 16 starts, a 334 ERA, 114 whip over a strikeout per inning. He averaged 95.4 miles per hour on the fastball, then imploded.
Starting point is 00:33:30 over his final three starts, a 14.9 ERA, 290 whip, more walks and strikeouts, and the fastball velocity was down one mile per hour to 94.4 miles per hour. Scott, any interest here in James Paxson to the Dodgers, and does it throw some cold water on Emmett Sheehan? There's more competition now. We have heard already that the Dodgers plan to go six-man this year, and understandably given that okay they've got Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Starting point is 00:34:03 that's fine we think although he's never pitched he's never pitched every fifth day yeah you know rotations work differently in Japan to January if the Dodgers follow through on this plan of a six-man rotation he won't have to now either so in theory he's fine in terms of durability
Starting point is 00:34:21 but you got Tyler Glass now definitely not Walker Bueller coming back from his second Tommy John surgery Bobby Miller, who himself is a young pitcher and hasn't taken on a true major league starter's workload yet. So there are going to be openings throughout the season in this rotation, one would think, even if they are going six-man.
Starting point is 00:34:44 And if they are going six-man from the get-go, there's still an opening for him at She-N. So I do like him as a sleeper this year. I know you have him as a breakout, Frank. Yeah. You could define him either way, I guess. And that doesn't really change for me, even though obviously there's more competition now. As for Paxton himself, I mean, you could make the case he's a sleeper too for the first,
Starting point is 00:35:07 what, through the All-Star break last year. Yeah, the end of June. We're phenomenal. He got the velocity back on his fastball and was getting tons of strike. Do somebody have the actual numbers here? I went for 16 starts, but there are all different. kinds of start and endpoints with Paxson, however you want to break it up. So what happened?
Starting point is 00:35:30 Okay, so I'll pull up the game log here. And, okay, so through July 8th, his first 10 starts, he had a 273 ERA, 64 strikeouts of 56 innings, a 14% swinging strike rate, which is lead. And it was basically a must-start pitcher in fantasy. He started dealing with a knee injury then that he kept. pitching through it didn't put him on the IL until end of August yeah
Starting point is 00:35:59 and his velocity dropped while pitching through that knee issue he went from averaging 96 on a fastball to like 94 and a half and got knocked around a bit so I think it's reasonable to assume the knee injury had something to do with that now I mean
Starting point is 00:36:20 James Paxton's no model of health either he's 35 years old now you can't count on him to take on a big starter's workload, but he's also going to be part of that six-man rotation. And so as long as you're not too invested in him and just you're treating him, you're assessing him on a start-to-start basis as opposed to making him a focal point of your pitching staff,
Starting point is 00:36:43 I think he could be a pretty good late-round investment, especially with the Dodgers offense backing him. We should probably address the goat in the room, right? The goat? They're going to resign Clayton Curs. Shaw. He's not going to pitch into likely, likely to the second half of the season, but James Paxton won't make it that long. Come on. That's the thing about all of this is like, oh, the Dodgers are going to have a six man rotation, really with James Paxton and Tyler Glass now and Walker.
Starting point is 00:37:09 Like, they're not. Or they're going to have different six people in the rotation by May or June. Gavin Stone's going to work his way. Yeah. I'll hurt's going to work his way in. There are going to be plenty of opportunities for I'm a sheehan and, and everyone. else because the Dodgers play in. I think it's pretty clear at this point. It's just hope that Yamamoto, Glassnow, and Bueller are
Starting point is 00:37:34 healthy by October and they're probably going to, oh, I'm sorry. That cough just came out. There was no stopping it. Oh, geez. James Paxton's ADP, by the way, I did want to mention. It's 363 in the month of January. He's a perfectly fine late round dark throw.
Starting point is 00:37:52 My guess is that will climb for some reason, players who are free agents just go really low in drafts. Like, eventually they're going to sign. My guess is, it could get as high as around pick 300. You see other pitchers there like Lance Lynn and Luis Severino. That kind of feels like the right range for James Paxson. Yeah, you will see something similar with Hoskins, who's at 208 by now, but I think he'll move up into like the Isok Paredes range probably makes sense, 175.
Starting point is 00:38:20 Yeah. I wanted to get to this, at least this last piece of news. before we talk short stops. Bit of a surprise. A roll as Chapman signed a one year $10.5 million deal with the Pirates. And if you look at the adjusted salaries on, Chris, you would know.
Starting point is 00:38:36 Is it Spot Track or Spotrack? The website. Spot track, I believe. Spot track? Because I never know how to pronounce it. I never heard anyone else say it. Spot track. Chapman will be the highest paid player
Starting point is 00:38:46 by the Pirates this season, which kind of took me by surprise. He turns 36 in February, but he could still pump it. He averaged 99 miles per hour on his fastball last year. His highest since 2017, walks to remain a huge problem, but it was a big bounce back season for a roll as Chapman.
Starting point is 00:39:05 Chris, the questions here, does Chapman affect David Bednar's value at all? Because, you know, the money is just kind of interesting to me. Or, like, you know, as a... We saw this last year. It's a repeat of last year. He signed with a bad team because nobody wants to give him a closer job. This time he got a bunch more money.
Starting point is 00:39:24 I think last year he signed for like $3 million. This is just the pirates hope that they get two or three good months out of him and then trade him to a contender. I can't imagine that they have any. If David Bednar gets hurt, great. We have the obvious guy to step up in Pittsburgh now in a way that we probably didn't before unless that happens. I don't think Orode's Chapman is likely to matter for fantasy at all.
Starting point is 00:39:52 All right. Well, at the top of the show, I said we were. going to get to all those other interesting tidbits. They'll have to wait another day. Let's take our final break when we return shortstop tiers here on fantasy baseball today. All right, shortstop tiers. Here we go. The first rounders includes three names, Bobby Witt, Trey Turner, and Corey Seeger.
Starting point is 00:40:13 Two questions on Seeger. Coming your way, Scotty. Does he jump to the front of this tier in a head-to-head points league? And how much do you worry about the injuries with Corey Seeger has only been? only played 150 plus games once in his last six full seasons. Yes, he jumps to the front in head-to-head points leagues. In fact, Corey Seeger is my sixth overall player and head-to-head points leagues. And by the way, you asked me about Moogie Betts earlier.
Starting point is 00:40:40 He's my second overall player in head-to-head points leagues. Seeger was one of those I mentioned, one of the few I mentioned, with more head-to-head points per game than Jose Al-Tuvae last year. Or if I didn't mention him, I should have because he was one of them. Okay. So the other question, do I worry about health with Corey Seeger? Not really. Not really.
Starting point is 00:41:05 And correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of his injuries have been, well, there was Tommy John surgery one year. I think there was a hip surgery. A hip surgery, yeah. The one thing I'll point out with the injuries is it was a hamstring last year. That is something that has lingered for him. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:24 And that's not great, but I don't know. That's worth noting he's only been on the IL three times in the last four seasons. There you go. It was a hamstring last year for 35 days. He had the hand injury last year. And then he had a nether. I think he got hit by a pitch in 2021, if I remember incorrectly, right? I don't remember off the top of my head.
Starting point is 00:41:47 He did stay healthy for 151 games. Corey Seeger did in 2022. Yeah, he got hit by a pitch in May of 2026. 2021 and broke his hand. My injury database is down right now. Come back pro sports transactions. Yeah, that's what I only hope. That's what I usually use as well, Scott.
Starting point is 00:42:04 So we are in the same boat. Let's move on to the also elite tier, which features two names Francisco Lindor and Gunner Henderson. Gunner finished his age 22 season, batting 255 with 28 homers, 100 run scored, and 10 steals after an awful first two months. does come with some splits concerns. We didn't talk about this the other day, Scott,
Starting point is 00:42:27 but Gunner Henderson in his career versus lefties, 193 plate appearances, batting 199 with a 595 OPS, 69 WRC plus, not nice. I asked Scott this question the other day, so Chris, I'll ask you the same. Does Gunner Henderson deserve to be in the also elite tier? I think this is probably the right tier. I would say that there's probably one name
Starting point is 00:42:52 that I would also include in this tier who's not here from the lower tier. But yeah, I think Gunner Henderson belongs here. What he's shown, the split concerns are legitimate. And that's not super surprising for a young left-handed batter. The hope is that it improves. But you look at last season, expected Wobah and actual Wobah against left-handed pitching was sub-300. I think it was like 280-something. That's pretty bad.
Starting point is 00:43:21 And so that that's the key is can he be a low 700s OPS bat against lefties just playing not that good? Well, then actually there's room for him to grow even. But the underlying numbers are all very, very good. He hits the ball hard. He was hitting the ball hard even when things weren't going good. So I do think Gunner Henderson might even have room to grow in terms of the stolen bases. And it's not impossible for a young lefty to improve. if I am remembering correctly,
Starting point is 00:43:52 yeah, Raphael Devers started off his career pretty bad against lefties, and he's kind of grown to be adequate. He holds his own. He's like a 7.50. And that's all you need. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:01 You know, lefties tend to have bigger split issues than right-handed pitchers. You see more lefty, or you see more righties, so it makes sense. But yeah, he just,
Starting point is 00:44:12 he has to get to the point where he's just pretty good or pretty bad against lefties and there's room for him to grow even from there. Yeah, you look at Devers. His first full season in 2018, he hit 229 with a 619 OPS against lefties. And then by the very next season in 2019, he's an everyday player at this point.
Starting point is 00:44:35 He hit 269 with a 744. I mean, that's exactly the growth that we would be looking for from Gunner Henderson. And the other thing you have to remember is we're dealing with very small sample sizes. Gunner Henderson probably has, what, 190 something played appearances against lefties in his career? maybe 250. 193. Yeah. That's way too small a sample size
Starting point is 00:44:56 to draw any conclusions on even if I assume it's probably directionally true that he is going to struggle against lefties. The near elite tier features eight names.
Starting point is 00:45:09 Bobichette, Ellie De LaCruz, C.J. Abrams, Nico Horner, O'Neill Cruz, Matt McLean, Hassan Kim, Zander Bogart. So we do get one, two, three,
Starting point is 00:45:19 three names here that are also in the second base tiers, Horner, McLean, Hassan Kim, Ellie De LaCruz, we spoke about a little bit the other day at third base tiers, in third base tiers as well. But Scott, this is a tier that spans rounds two through 10, if you're looking at ADP. Bichet is like on the cusp of like rounds two and three. But did you consider Bichet being one tier higher and maybe someone like Bogart's being one tier lower? well this is a mess because we just talked about
Starting point is 00:45:55 at second base okay I'm not going to have Nico Horner and Matt McLean in the near elite tier anymore well I have to extract them from the near elite tier at shortstop too and meanwhile you have
Starting point is 00:46:09 when we talked about third base we talked about maybe me moving Ellie de la Cruz up to the also elite which I could do so this tier could go from very big to very small with a couple of adjustments
Starting point is 00:46:21 and I don't know that in the long run when we look at Fantasy Pros ADP which combines all the ADP sources. I'm pretty doubtful about Ellie de la Cruz coming out as a second
Starting point is 00:46:37 rounder when we do that. I think he's very high in NFBC ADP but I don't think I mean I'm looking at it now. Yahoo has him 54th in early ADP I think CBS has even lower than that. I think they're probably pulling from our Points League ADP data is my guess. But the point is I think in the long run, Ellie De La Cruz might come out into the 40-50 range
Starting point is 00:47:02 when you combine the ADP from all the different ADP sources. And understandably, there's going to be a wide range of thought on him, given the risk-reward profile. I come out a little more cautiously, I think, than others do. I don't have him higher than round four, I don't think, even in Roto leagues. But I could still understand tiering him with Francisco Lendor and Gunner Henderson in the also elite, with the caveat that I'd only do that in Roto leagues and not points leagues.
Starting point is 00:47:38 I don't know. These middle tiers in the infield positions, I think, I think, I'm, it's already back to the drawing board for them because there's some stuff that needs to be sorted out here. And the fact there are so many multiple eligible, multiple eligible players complicates things further. Chris, who was? Well, let me ask you this. Boba Shet belongs in a tier distinct from Francisco Lendor and Gunner Henderson, right? I think so.
Starting point is 00:48:11 Scott, you and I have had, I, I, I don't. I think I have him, I have Boba Shet rank. with those guys. Is that the name you were referring to, Chris? Yes. Gotcha. I thought he was referring to Ellie De La Cruz. No, I mean, I have him ranked there, but I think it's probably okay.
Starting point is 00:48:29 If you want to push him down, it's certainly a risk-reward thing. So I kind of feel like Bo Bichette, now that we can't, to your trend now, of us not being able to call him a base dealer, really. Yes. I think he's more Zander Bogarts than not. I think the quality of context is a lot better. better. Like I think last year. Like an expected output. I would say, I think Boba Chet's ceiling is closer to 30 homers and I think
Starting point is 00:48:59 Zander Bogart's ceiling is closer to 20. But like, I actually think Santa Bogart's is kind of a decent value right now. In a like, they're not dissimilar in that I'm not sure you can necessarily project Xander Bogart's or Boba Shett to be a standout in more than one or two categories, but I think they'll both help you pretty much everywhere. You know, I think Boba Shett's a more obvious helper in batting average, and I think the overall production will be quite a bit better, but like, I actually think Zander Bogart's is a pretty decent value at like 110 or whatever his
Starting point is 00:49:35 ADP is this year. Yeah, Boba Chet is one. And Xander's working at Drive Line this year. Oh. And that's, I just looked it up because I thought. I thought I had seen something about that earlier in the off season, but I'm just saying, could get a bounce back year if we apply that, that narrative to guys. Does Drive Line do reconstructive wrist surgery, Chris?
Starting point is 00:49:59 They've got a lot of cool tools there, maybe. Because Xander Bogart's wrist was a problem last year. I think he had two cortisone shots, so hopefully he shows up healthy. I do think there is some big bounce back potential just for like the whole Padres lineup in general. but yes, save that for another day. Back to Bichette for a second, because he had over 300, and he played 135 games,
Starting point is 00:50:22 so there was a little missed time there with an injury. Nothing significant, but a little bit, that you have to factor in. So we ended up with 73 RBI and 69 runs scored. Again, not much of a base deal, only five of those. If you look at where he finished, according to CBS's, roto
Starting point is 00:50:44 rating system Bo Bichette was the 80th overall player while Francisco Landoor was the 10th overall player and because I don't think those stolen bases are coming back for Bichette, who knows what happens with run an RBI, but
Starting point is 00:51:02 you know, he's not getting on base at the same rate Francisco Landor is. I don't know. I can't tear them together. It is worth mentioning Bichette missed some time last year, 135 games played after 159 in each of 2021 and 2022. So that will affect the overall ranking. But even if he played 24, 25 more games, was he going to jump 70 spots to where Lindor was?
Starting point is 00:51:27 No, no. I think he has to be better than he was last season. And I'm, I'm expecting that. I think the expected stats were a little better than his actual production. The run and RBI numbers are just both weirdly low in a way that I think. we probably, you know, it makes me think of Zander, or, um, Raph Devers two years ago.
Starting point is 00:51:49 Remember, he only had 84 runs and 88 RBI in 2022, despite having a really good season. Otherwise, he had basically the same season, arguably was a little worse. In 2023, his OBP and Slug were both worse and his batting average. But he drove in and scored, you know,
Starting point is 00:52:09 18 more runs total than he had year before. So that's one where I just, I think there's going to be natural regression for Boba Chet where I think 90 runs, 90 RBI is a pretty reasonable projection, if not more. And I think it is fair for him to get back on track. I mean, he turns 26 years old in March. So, you know, he's just now, I guess, kind of entering the prime of his career. I think the only pushback I would have, Chris, is that Blue Jays lineup is bad, man. Like, the top. Top three right now, you got Springer,
Starting point is 00:52:44 Bichette, and Vlad, but they weren't good last year. They've lost Matt Chapman. They haven't replaced him yet. I mean, they've kind of been linked
Starting point is 00:52:52 to Jorge Saler, but that hasn't happened. Even if they get Jorge Saler, is that enough? I don't know. I do have questions about the Blue Jays lineup here entering 2024.
Starting point is 00:53:02 I think that's reasonable. Let's move on to the next best things at shortstop. Four names here. Jackson Holiday, arguably the top prospect in all of baseball
Starting point is 00:53:10 with the Baltimore Orioles. Danes v. Swanson, Tommy Edmund, and J.P. Crawford, who ranks one tier lower in a Categories League. Why is that? Crawford only provided two stolen bases, and he looks like a head-to-head points standout. He had a 380 on base percentage and had three fantasy points per game. This is J.P. Crawford. That was tied with Gunner Henderson, C.J. Abrams, and L.E. D. La Cruz. So really good in that format. Takes one step down in a C. C.C.E.L.L. League. Scott, one name here I wanted to focus on was Dansby Swanson. He's someone I actually kind of like in this tier.
Starting point is 00:53:48 10.9% barrel rate ranked fifth along qualified shortstops, 77th percentile sprint speed. Now the Cubs have Craig Counsel as their manager, where he was pretty aggressive during his time with the Brewers in terms of just letting the team run. So I think the steals could be up for Swanson. And based on the barrel rate, it's pretty good power for a shortstop too.
Starting point is 00:54:11 You are muted, sir. I hadn't tried to say anything, and you already noticed that. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know that I actually put that much stock in this Craig counsel is, you know, going to turn the Cubs into the 89 Cardinals narrative or whatever we have going on. Like, Danesby Swanson, he stole 20 bases once, right? Like, he's just not that aggressive on the bases. I don't think going to Craig Counsel is going to change that really.
Starting point is 00:54:45 He's not much of a source of batting average. He's basically a bad batting average, Xander Bogartz. And so that's why I have him tiered separately. But I'm really wrestling with this because, like, it's hard to make the shortstop tiers and the second base tiers jive with each other. I mean, I could reduce the shortstop near elite down to Bobeschette. CJ Abrams and O'Neill Cruz, but then I'm dropping Hassan Kim, Zander Bogarts, and Nico Horner into the same tier with Jackson Holiday and Danesby Swanson, and that doesn't feel right either.
Starting point is 00:55:29 So I don't know. Do I got to, I don't know what I'm going to do. I don't know what I'm going to do. It's a mess. Everything is ruined. All right. Why do we even try? I'm happy we're figuring that out here live on the podcast.
Starting point is 00:55:42 Well, it's, you know, it needs to be done. It needs to be done. I feel like we did this last year with the Tiers podcast, too. It's the only way to do it, man. We've got to talk it out. The fallback options, six names, Carlos Correa, Willie Adamas, Anthony Volpey, Tyro Estrada, Trevor Story, Von Grissom. Scott, the answer's obvious.
Starting point is 00:56:01 You just move Tiro Estrada up one tier in both positions, and everything's fixed. No, that's not fixed. Because then you're going to tier Tiro Estrada with Zander Bogarts. Is that what you're saying? No, he wasn't in the... Oh, we're talking about moving Bogarts down.
Starting point is 00:56:20 Because we got to get him out of the tier where C.J. Abrams is. I don't know. I rank Nico Horner ahead of Zander Bogart, so if I'm going to move Nico Horner down, like I'm saying, I'm doing it's second base, then Zander Bogart's got to go with him, right? I guess so.
Starting point is 00:56:39 Yeah, it's not so easy, is it? It's not so easy. Outside of my Tyro Estrada suggestion. You love Tyro Estrada, clearly. How valuable is a 260 hitting 15 homer, 25 steel, 70 run, 70 RBI guy, really? Because I just don't think that's that valuable. Maybe it's just me focusing on the name Tommy Edmund, but it just feels like they shouldn't be in different tiers.
Starting point is 00:57:03 I think that's a reasonable way to put it. Yeah. That is reasonable. I do think if any of them, either of them is going to steal 40 bases instead of It's Tommy Edmund, but he did not show any inclination to take advantage of the new rules. He kind of stayed just the same 30 steel guy he's always been instead of running a lot more like so much of the league did. And that's why he feels only as good as Tyro Estrada. I think there is more upside there, but maybe not enough that they deserve to be in separate tiers.
Starting point is 00:57:32 That's kind of what we're kind of what we're working through right now. Back to the fallback options, Chris, some clear bounceback candidates here, I think, in Well, potential bounce back. Not surely that they're going to bounce back, but Correa, Willie Adomas, and Trevor Story. Correa still hit the ball hard, plate discipline, remains sound. He does have this lingering plantar fasciitis. Adomis's quality of contact and Babep plummeted last year.
Starting point is 00:57:58 He's entering a contract year with the Brewers. And Trevor Story gets, you know, his first normal offseason, I guess, since he was signed, but I guess even that's kind of not a normal offseason. but he rushed back from elbow surgery last year. Do you have any faith in any of those names bouncing back here? I feel pretty good about Carlos Correa having a bounce back season. Now, what that looks like at this point for Carlos Correa is a different question.
Starting point is 00:58:29 I think it's probably more like a 280 batting average, and it's probably more like 25 homers if he stays healthy with decent, but not great run in RBI totals and absolutely no speed. I mean, he hasn't stolen a base since 2019, which is astounding. So, like, is that a difference-making player? Probably not, but is it a player who has a lot of room for profit at his current price? I think it's more the latter. You know, he is how far down the list you have to go in ADP?
Starting point is 00:59:04 He is the number 25 shortstop behind the likes of, Luis Renhifo, Von Grissom, Ezekiel Tovar, who I like, but yeah, I think Carlos Correa bounceback is a pretty good bet. All right, the last resort's tier at shortstop. Five names, Jordan Lawler, Ezekiel Tovar, Jeremy Pena, Tim Anderson, who remains a free agent, and Javier Baez.
Starting point is 00:59:32 We recently received an email from a listener named Samuel Isaac, who asked a very straightforward question, why does Scott hate Ezekiel Tovar? I wondered how what name that was going to finish with. I thought it was headed for Jeremy Pena, but instead it went to Ezekiel Tovar, which is... Why do you hate all of these players, Scott? I mean, that question contains a premise that I don't agree with.
Starting point is 00:59:58 So I don't know, I don't even know how to answer it. All right, well, just talk about Ezekiel Tovar. I, I, why do you like? I mean, he wasn't... I don't know that I like that useful last year. I know you don't, but I'm asking the emailer. Okay, so he hit 253, 15 homers, 11 steals in 153 games last year. And, you know, 695 OPS.
Starting point is 01:00:30 The underlying data, nothing really stands out is, wow, there's a lot of room for growth here. I'm not saying he'll be a 695 OPS guy for the rest of his career, but I don't see anything that's going to lead me to believe he's bound to take a leap this year, other than the fact he plays half his games in Colorado, but that was also true last year when he was putting together the 695 OPS. I will say, if you're going to bet on someone this late in the draft, the 22-year-old very recent top prospect who plays half his games at course field is not a bad bet like we we've we've given I don't know I feel like
Starting point is 01:01:18 Ryan McMahon it took longer for people to lose faith in like Ryan McMahon was still like a top 180 pick for like three years into his career people kept giving him the benefit of that he was better than as he could Tovar was last year obviously but it's just to say that Tovar is still very young 22 years old he doesn't turn 23 until August. There's power and their speed. How much of either of them is a fair question. But yeah, I think if I was going to wait for a court for a middle infielder,
Starting point is 01:01:53 Ezekiel Tovar is the kind of guy I would rather wait on. But you could make an upside case for everyone in this tier. Jordan Lawler, an even better prospect than Tovar, Jeremy Pena. you know, everybody loved him just a year ago. Not me so much, but a lot of... Yeah, that's kind of my thing. It's like, I didn't like him last year. Tim Anderson, of course, is just...
Starting point is 01:02:16 He's just got a sign. You know, that's the thing for me. It's like, once Tim Anderson signs, I'm going to be trying to draft him a lot. And Javier Baez, I'm sure you could still find some believers for him, too. So, you know, I think any of these are fine as a middle infield option in deeper roado leagues, like your 15 teamers. But I'm not predicting a breakout or bounce.
Starting point is 01:02:40 I'm not going as far as to predict a breakout or bounce back season for any of them, even though you could, it's not the craziest thing to believe in. And lastly, the leftovers, eight names here at shortstop. Zach Netto, Mason Win, Luis Renhifo, Ezekiel Duran, Orlando Arcia, Geraldo Perdomo, John Bertie, Ahmed Rosario, and Bryce Terang. Wanted to give a quick shout out to Zach Netto, was on my short list when I was thinking of sleepers to write up for this year. He hit nine homers, five steals, and 84 games as a rookie.
Starting point is 01:03:14 Non-zero chance he can go 2010 in 2024. A god and hit by pitch leagues. You know I love that. 8.8% barrel rate for Zach Nitto that would have ranked top 12 among qualified short stops. Former 13th overall pick. He got rushed to the bigs. There's some upside here, Sky. You don't sleep on Zach.
Starting point is 01:03:37 I mean, it was a top 100 prospect last year. I'm not necessarily disagreeing. But like, it's a blind faith sort of pick, I feel like. Same as Tovar. Somebody asked in the chat, wasn't Tovar better in the second half? No, he was worse. All right. Well, we answered your question, Samuel Isaac, or at least we tried.
Starting point is 01:03:55 We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in some fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. and we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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