Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 Starting Pitcher Tiers! Strategy, ADP and Players to Target (1/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 29, 2024

How do we rank and tier starting pitchers in 2024 (3:52)? What did you need to win pitching categories in 2023? ... Unsurprisingly, the first-round tier features Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole (11:17). ... Any concern over Corbin Burnes in the also-elite tier (15:02)? ... Are we OK with the 'near elite' tier as our SP1 (18:26)? ... Why are the guys out on names in the 'next best things' tier (26:08)? ... How many pitchers do the guys want to have by the 'fallback options' tier (29:47)? ... It's time to enter THE GLOB tiers (36:45). ... News (53:22): the Tigers extended one of their top prospects in Colt Keith. Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Infield and outfield tiers are out of the way. Next up, starting pitchers. Welcome into fantasy baseball today.

Frank Scott and Chris here on Monday, January 29th. Today on the show, we are going to focus mostly on starting pitcher tiers. But we also had some news. The Tigers extended one of their top prospects, Colt Keith, plus some reliever signing. So we'll get to that a little bit later on. Obviously, this is a baseball podcast. But I think we can all agree.

The Super Bowl, kind of a big deal. And the Super Bowl is set. The Chiefs and the 49ers. Chris, do you have a strong lean either way? I know you spent a large majority of your year covering football. I think the 49ers are the better team. I think they've been the best team all year, but the Ravens were better than the Chiefs,

and it didn't matter because, like, it just seems dumb to bet against Patrick Mahomes at this point, right? He's lost like two playoff games in his life, I think, right? Am I getting the mat there correct? Seems right, yeah. He's made five Super Bowls. He's lost two. I guess he got eliminated. So he's lost three playoff games in his life.

It's a pretty good record. So I think I would pick the Chiefs, even though I think the 49ers are the better team. Should be a lot of fun. Shout out to both fan bases, the Chiefs and the 49ers in the Super Bowl. But most people here don't really care about football. So let's talk about starting pitcher tiers. Offense was up in 2023. Pitchers were more unpredictable than in recent years.

Scott, you are up. What did you value most when ranking starting pitchers? And what factored into creating these tiers entering 2024? Well, I feel like you teed me up for a question. You already know the answer to. What I focused on most was strikeouts. because this is my rationale. All right.

So if you can think back to your experience of 2023 with starting pitching, it was endlessly frustrating, right? Because even if you had a good pitcher, it didn't seem to matter. Good pitcher, bad pitcher, medium pitcher, whatever. You could never be sure when they were going to deliver this disaster start where they give up like eight runs and wreck your ERA. And it almost felt like a random number generator through all the ranks of pitching, but especially that very giant midrange of pitching.

I kind of feel like where their ERAs ended up was just a matter of how much time they had to correct or not correct whatever disaster start came leading up to the, to the end of the season. And so I don't want to have to trust an ERA and WIP. I want to put all my investment in strikeouts because that is the one thing you can trust a pitcher to do, as long as he's healthy, of course, at the same rate, if a pitcher's a strikeout pitcher,

you know he's going to give you strikeouts. ERA, whip, who knows in this environment where they'll end up, but if he's a strikeout pitcher, he's going to give you strikeouts. And because I feel like what's contributing to this uncertainty, this volatility at starting pitching is the new offensive environment we find ourselves in where there are more base runners, there's more action on the bases. And when there's more base runners, when there's more actioning happen on the bases, pitchers are forced to keep up the tempo unlike they ever were before. that's what's causing these kind of snowball outings, the best way to prevent the runners from getting on in the first place

is to just strike them all out. So just by happenstance, targeting strikeouts in the way I'm trying to is likely to give you a better ERA and whip. But that's a secondary reason. The main reason is just I want to invest in the thing I can actually trust in at starting pitcher. So at least in categories leagues, five-by-five leagues, rotissory leagues, however you want to say it, at least in that scoring format, I have elevated

strikeout pitchers in a way that might feel unnatural at certain points. And I would also say that those category league's rankings versus the points rankings, there's more difference than ever for me at starting pitcher between those two scoring formats because, you know, you can accept a disaster start a little easier in a head-to-head league. You're not going to have to carry the effects of that for the rest of the season, and plus strikeouts aren't worth as much in that scoring format. So that's, I think, the quickest rundown I can give of my approach to starting pitcher this year and how it differs from past years. Before we get into the actual tiers, Chris, I know that you're working on an article where you're focusing on what you needed

to win each category last year, right? So in particular, ERA and WIP, I know you mentioned that they were up from previous years, what do you have on the ratio stats? Yeah, so the last year that I have this data for, unfortunately, is 2021. I didn't do it for 22, so I don't have that data. But comparing 2023 to 2021, ERA was up. The best team in ERA in 2021 in a 12-team standard CBS Fantasy League had a 3.28 ERA. Last year, the best team had a 3.456, 34, 5, 6. That's fun. WIP was also up 1.1 in 2021 for the number one team to 1.53.

Not gigantic, but like a quarter of a run in ERA. 1.153, right? Yeah, what I say? 1.53. Yeah, that would be a really bad top whip in a leave. You're going out to like an extra decimal place that we never really acknowledge normally. So here's the, but like I think this puts it into context. is that the average sixth and seventh place teams,

we'll just put them together. In 2021, the average six and seventh place teams had 377 and 384 ERA. So that was middle of the road for fantasy. Last year, 394 and 399 was sixth and seventh place. So like a four ERA pitcher in 2023, wasn't hurting you in fantasy. That's a, that's a legitimately new thing,

you know, relative to where we've been the past couple of years. And it's weird because scoring was up, but it wasn't up so much that like you would think it we drastically need to change,

you know, the way we think about fantasy baseball. But like over the past 10 years, 2023 had the fourth highest ERA. 2022 had the second lowest. So, you know, there is, this is for starting pitchers. So, you know, that's, there was a four, a four tenths of a run difference between the average starting pitcher ERA in 2023 and the average starting pitcher ERA in 2022. And now the thing you have to keep in mind is the average for the league and average for

a fantasy league are always going to be different, right? They're going to be better for fantasy because we're not, you know, we're hopefully not telling you to draft the worst pitchers in the league. and they're being removed from the sample size. But even still, last year, you know, we do have to rethink some of our perceptions about what is or isn't a good fantasy option in a way that feels stable, finally, right? Like, we don't know if they're going to change the baseball, but it sounds like they've hopefully standardized the production practices and they're not doing anything. specific we know of yet and won't know until the games are played. But hopefully they aren't doing anything to change it.

The rule changes that went into place last year are also in effect for the first time for two years in a row. So hopefully the crazy jumps that we've seen in the fantasy landscape over the last decade, hopefully we're reaching a position of stasis, hopefully. The key words there, Chris, that were aware of. So hopefully we get some data during spring training. That they're aware of, frankly. Because as we know, it may not be intentional as well. So.

Yeah. It looks to be stable. We'll see where we're at, you know, come spring training and obviously the first couple of months of the season as well. Let's get into Scott starting pitcher tiers. These are live on the site. You can find them to CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. The first tier includes two names and they are the first rounders.

Spencer Strider and Garrett Cole, just to further establish this tier. If you take a look at ADP, Spencer Strider is going at 8.4, Garrett Cole at 13.6. The next closest starting pitcher is Corbyn Burns down at 26.3. So that is a huge drop, Scott, which obviously agrees with your breakdown here of the first tier, the first rounders. These two are kind of in a class of their own Strider and Garikull.

Yeah, I mean, Strider, I think just look. at last year's numbers. He finished 44 strikeouts ahead of the number two pitcher. He finished three wins ahead of the number two pitcher. The ERA was on the high side, but the ERA across the league was on the high side, and I believe before his

final four or five starts, his ERA was 40 points lower. So he kind of finished on a down note there, did strider, not necessarily expecting him to finish with that hive in ERA again. He was one of the biggest underachievers by all the ERA estimators.

So I don't think you should hold his ERA against him. Obviously, I'm not putting a lot of stock in ERA in general. So that's why striders up here. And Garrett Cole just because of sheer reliability. He's actually coming off one of his worst seasons, probably his worst season since he first joined the Astros. His strikeout numbers were way down. His swinging strikes were way down.

He finally got a Cy Young out of it because that's kind of the irony. Yeah, but he just, I do wonder a little bit, if we're whistling past the graveyard here with Garrett Cole, just because it happened to work out that he didn't have some of the issues that other high-end starters had,

even though a strikeout numbers were down, and maybe that was just happenstance. Keep using that word. But, you know, it's hard, even within the elite ranks of starting pitchers to feel like you have something you can trust in. And so just by track record. I think Garrett Cole deserves that. I will say, I also wonder if we might be writing Garrett Cole off as an

elite strikeout pitcher too early, right? It's a one year thing. And so that's that's the thing I want to keep. That's also partially why I agree he belongs in the top tier. I think he, him and Strider, it's a 1A, 1B. I'll take strider first, but I don't want to speak with too much certainty about Garrett Cole's strikeouts because I'm not sure we have like a great explanation for I'm sure somebody smarter than me has a good explanation for why his strike. But like his swinging strike rates just kind of collapsed on all of his pitches, even though the, you know, pitch characteristics weren't that different. His velocity was down about a mile per hour. So maybe that's just it. Maybe it's just that explanation. but we've seen enough of like Justin Erlander and Max Scherzer and these Hall of Fame type pitchers,

and I think Garrickle absolutely is putting himself in that conversation, that don't think that a dip in the road is the start of a downhill. You know, it might just be a, you know, a one-time drop, or it could be that he's just no longer an elite strikeout pitcher. But I think there might. be a little too much certainty. Just like this time a year ago, there was probably too much certainty that Garrett Cole was not going to help your ERA. And all of a sudden, his ERA is a run lower in 2023 than it was in 2022. All right, let's slide over to the also elite tier, which features

five names, Kevin Gosman, Zach Wheeler, Corbyn, Luis Castillo, and Zach Gallen. These are the next five in ADP as well. So you, Scott, your rankings and tiers are so far. in lockstep with ADP, and these names range from picks 26 through 39. So early third round pick in a 12-team league into the middle of the fourth round. Scott, any concern with Corbyn Burns, because we've now seen the strikeout rate and the walk rate trending in opposite directions. His K-per-9 went from 12.6 in 2021 to 10.8 in 2022, down to 9.3 in 2020, swinging strike rate, basically in conjunction with that drop in strikeout rate as well.

We did see some velocity drops from Corbyn Burns as well last year. Any concern with some of these dips from Corbyn Burns? I would say Burns and Cole kind of have the same concern there where, okay, they still pitched well. They still pitched like Aces particularly for the environment we were in. But yeah, they're, they're the, the, the, the, the, dominance numbers that they used to excel in were kind of middle of the road, the swinging strike rate, the K-per-9. Although that did Burns turn that around in the second half.

Yeah, that's what I was about to say. Like, remember his velocity was down early in the year, and the second half he had 10.2 K-per-9, and only a 271 ERA. So he got stronger as the year went on. And so that's why I'm not inclined to say, oh, Burns is a bus candidate. this year. Burns doesn't belong in the also elite tier. I think did a lot to relieve my own concerns at least as the season played out. The only thing I would just the vibes are kind of weird with Corbyn Burns, right? Like it's not clear if he wants to be traded. If they're going to like that that like human side of it is unknowable. But there's part of that. You know, I don't know if

Like, that's suddenly why he started pitching better in the second half because he didn't get traded. But like, that's one other unknown that, that, you know, hangs above his head. Yeah, I know Burns and the Brewers last year, they kind of got into it last season, because they went to arbitration. And obviously, that's always kind of a messy process. Now Corbyn Burns entering a contract year has been subject to trade rumors. But as of now, still in the Brewers, we'll see where he's at on opening day. What's interesting about this tier is,

Gossmann, Wheeler, Burns, Castillo, Gallen. Those are the five pitchers again. I think it's less likely that they're actually going to occupy this space in between the tier ahead of them and the tier below them, then that some of them are going to be basically as valuable as striders and coal, and some of them are going to be more like the tier behind them. So it's more of like the distinction between the. these names in the tier below them is more of a confidence, a measure of confidence than a measure of upside. And so it's kind of a misleading tier in that way, if that makes sense. All right, let's

slide over to the near elite which features 11 names. Tyler Glassnow, Terrick Scubal, Blake Snell, who still remains a free agent, Pablo Lopez, Yoshinobu, Yamamoto, Kodai Senga, Freddie Peralta, Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Framber Valdez, and Cole Regens. That's right. Cole Regens. Senga and Peralta are one tier

lower in a head-to-head points league. They both offer big strikeout rates, but not the most efficient pitchers. And then Nola and Valdez are one tier lower in a Categories league. Wouldn't surprise me if Yamamoto was also a little

better in Rodo than points just because it's going to be his first time pitching on a five-man rotation. And I think it's just, it's always fair to have some innings concerns about pitchers making the jump from Japan. Yeah, well, the Dodgers are talking about a six-man rotation. We'll see if that actually comes to fruition, if they actually follow these reports that are out there right now. But yes, we could see a transition period here from Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

So this is obviously such an interesting tier of diverse skill sets, which spans rounds four through 10. So pretty big range within the draft as well. Scott, are you okay with all 11 of these names as your SP1? Obviously, it's different ranges. It could be anywhere from rounds four. I think in the drafts that we do, like Cole Reagan's is probably going to be a six or seventh round pick. But are you okay with all these names as your potential SP1? And that's a change I made in the tiers recently was to, I actually had.

Cole Reagan's more toward the front of this tier. And I dropped into the very end of this tier because I felt like even having him at the end of this tier, I'd probably be able to draft him everywhere. I know I'm higher on him than the consensus. But to answer your question, yes. Yes, I'd be comfortable with any of these as my ace. Now, if the comfort level might be slightly different,

depending on the pitcher. Like if Glassnow is the first pitcher I draft, knowing the likelihood of him missing a third of the season, at least, then I probably need to draft, like, need to be extra sure to draft another pitcher from this tier. I want two pitchers from this tier anyway, particularly if I don't get a, you know, if I get a pitcher from a tier above them,

then I don't necessarily need to. But as a general rule, I would like two pitchers from this first of the larger tiers. But, yeah, I see them all as potential aases. I mean, you read off the names, you get what I was talking about. Blake's now, obviously, raining Cy Young winner. I don't think it would surprise anybody if he was as good as Corbin Burns again or Pablo Lopez. Yeah, that's probably.

Had excellent numbers too. Where I actually have Pablo ranked ahead of, sorry, Zach Allen, who. Yeah. Some kind of similar-ish injury concerns where, like, there's just like lingering doubts from a couple of years ago in both. cases, Pablo with the shoulder, Gallon with the elbow. And I just think Pablo was better last year in a way that I trust more, even though obviously to one year sample size of him pitching at that level. And I think there's regression risk for both of them.

But I would have Pablo higher than Gallen, at least. So the top four pitchers, I think I have this right. I'm going off memory here, but the top four pitchers in expected ERA, XERA, last year were in some order, Spencer Strider, Zach Wheeler, Pablo Lopez, and, oh, now I'm not sure of the fourth one. I'd have to look it up.

Yeah, like, Gallin's expected ERA was a run higher than Pablo's. So those top four in expected ERA, they all underperformed their expected ERA by like 40 points. So I'm bringing this up because I'm saying basically, okay, Pablo Lopez was one of them. So you look at the ERA, it might scare you away. But he was an underachiever in terms of how that goes. He deserved better to put it another way. But because that was consistent with the top four pitchers and expected ERA,

it does make you wonder, or at least maybe it kind of underscores the point I was making earlier, where ERA is just a more difficult contribution to trust right now, given the volatility of the environment and the snowball effect that we saw at starting pitcher so often last year. If you look at qualified starting pitcher, Scott, the top four in expected ERA were Pablo Lopez, Spencer Shrider, Zach Eifflin, and Zach Wheeler. Yeah, Eflin was the fourth. And they were all like between 35 and 60 points. What's really interesting is if you lower the threshold to 250 balls in play, which is the way baseball savant does their sorting,

which I think it's kind of silly, but whatever. You get a bunch of relievers in there, yeah. Well, no, if you lower it to 250, it's still almost all starters. It's all starters. But Joe Musgrove jumped into the top four, and he had no difference between his ERA and XERA, which is just weird because you would expect the smaller sample size to be where the noise is.

And I don't quite know what to make of any of this. Yeah. All right, let's take our first break. When we return, we'll get into the Next Best Things Tier and the rest at starting pitcher right after this. Welcome back in. Let's talk Next Best Things Tier, which features nine names, Max Fried, George Kirby,

Justin Steele, Kyle Bradish, Joe Musgrove, Walker Bueller, Jesus Lozardo, Zach Efflin, and Logan Gilbert. What's interesting about both this tier and the previous tier, this tier also spans rounds four through 10. So I guess it's interesting just to see which pitchers Scott kind of has ranked higher and lower based on these tiers. But nonetheless, strikeouts. That's what it is. Yeah.

I mean, I'm lower on George Kirby than most everybody else because he doesn't get that big strikeout, those big strikeout numbers. And what's interesting is I think the reason people who are so high on Kirby are so high on Kirby is because they think he's going to break. through as a big strikeout pitcher. But I don't know. Like with as many big strikeout pitchers has already exist, that seems like too big of a leap for me. So I'm going to tear him a little bit lower and probably not draft him anywhere because of that.

I could live with it. Yeah. Otherwise, I don't know. These pitchers all have obviously the capacity to perform like Aces. Justin Steele essentially was one last year. Zach Eflin essentially was one last year, even though he underperformed his expected ERA, as we just covered. But because strikeouts aren't a big part of their games,

I am, I'm not going to be as comfortable. They're not going to, if they have bad ERA luck, it's harder to overcome. And they're not, because like you can look at Frambervald as an Aeronola from the previous tier and say, well, they're not great strikeout guys. The difference there is I feel pretty comfortable. projecting Aaron Nola and Terrick Scoot, or, sorry, Framber Valdez for 195 to 200

innings. So like, I think they'll brute force their way to 200 strikeouts. And I'm, I'm actually fine drafting either of those guys as kind of my, who are the two? Aaron Nola and Framber Valdez. I like those guys as kind of a second anchor. Right. Like, my strategy is probably going to be one of Nola and Framber and then a high strikeout per inning guy, whether it's, you know, if I take the Spencer Strider or Garrett Cole plunge at the end of the first or early second round or Gosman or Burns or one of those guys, like my strategy is probably to pair Anola and Framber who there's uncertainty about the rate stats, but I think the counting stats, you feel really good about them. Yeah. I think I'm going to skip the next best things tier entirely. Okay. So now it is worth noting that by my tiers, probably not by ADP, but by.

my tiers, Nola and Valdez are in the next best next tier in Categories leagues. We listed them in the near elite tier, but that was only for points leagues and categories leagues. I have them lower. And that was, I was a little torn with Nola especially because you can count on him for big strikeout numbers. 200 to 220 a year because of the volume he takes on. And, you know, even on a per inning basis, he's a pretty good strikeout pitcher.

Mm-hmm. but it's just two of the last three years he's had an ERA in the 450 range and so maybe I'm putting too much stock in that the other way but I think given the high cost and how high high end we're talking here I just I'd just rather played a little safe with somebody who's had that much trouble to the last three years all right let's slide over to the fallback options which includes seven names Yuri Perez Bobby Miller Grayson Rodriguez Tanner Bybee, Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, and Justin Verlander.

Just visually reading Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller back to back is just kind of confusing because you want to like mix their names up. They just, they look so similar with the MKs there. Anyway, this is the final tier before we get to the glob. And we do see the young upside names here in Perez, Miller, Rodriguez, and Bybee. They're paired with some veterans and Kelly and Verlander, Mitch Keller, just kind of chilling on his. zone, I guess, in this tier. He didn't really fit a category for me. But how many pitchers, Scott, do you want at this point in the draft before we get to the glob? This is the final tier before the glob. How many starting pitchers do you ideally want by the time we get to fallback options?

Got to have four. Got to have four. Be great if I could have five. That's got to be harder in 15 team leagues, I understand. Most of the audience doesn't play in 15 team leagues, but it is worth pointing that out. You may have to sacrifice more hitting than you can justify to get for from what is basically the top 35 in my rankings, my starting pitcher rankings. But, you know, the glob is the glob. And we've been talking all off season, really even before last season ended about where that cutoff for the glob is, where it begins. And I guess I'm committing now. It begins after

Justin Verlander and I still don't think that's a firm distinction. I look at some of those pictures at the top of the glob and I'm like, I kind of like him.

But I think from an assurance standpoint, you have to treat the glob as starting right after this group because it just gets so much riskier after these guys go off the board.

I want two. I want two by this point. Only two. You are comfortable swimming in the glob. My approach and historic data tends to support this thesis that starting pitchers in the first four or so rounds are really, really good bets historically. And then after that, there's really not historically that much difference between a seventh round pitcher and a 12th round pitcher. And there's historically not that much difference between a 12th round pitcher. 18th round pitcher.

Like, obviously the early guys tend to be better, but the hit rates, the miss rates, it all tends to be a lot closer once you get out of the early rounds in a way that, like, I might just steal Ben Gretchenc's thunder and write an SP Dead Zone article, which I've tinkered with in the past. But if you're familiar with fantasy football, there's an idea of the RB Dead Zone, which has changed because people have changed the way they draft. But historically, it's like the first two, maybe three rounds of running backs can't miss.

They're guys who have done 300 touches. They're guys who have passing game roles. They're in good. Like everything you look for. They've done it. They've proven it. Or their elite prospects, whatever. After that is when it's like, well, I guess this guy used to be good.

And maybe he'll go. Like, that's the theory is that the value on running back. in rounds three through 10 tends to be not great. And historically, starting pitcher has been very, very similar, even though the landscape has changed. And I'll have to do the research again when I get to the point in where I'm writing my starting pitcher preview. But I'm operating under the assumption that it didn't change that much.

And you can see, Ariel Cohen's done some really good research on this as well, using auction values. But basically, the high, high end guys are worth the investment. after that starting pitcher is is very much a random number generator and so my approach is for a long time for at least a decade the aces were like super aces and so I think that's polluted the data because you look at the aces now the aces last year were not super aces I mean that those were some underwhelming Cy Young winners historically you don't want to get caught fighting last year's You know, you don't want to fight the last war.

If you don't believe in the landscape change, okay. But I can only go on, especially when there are rule changes to support it. I can only go on what I've last seen. I mean, if this is the new environment, I think this is the best way to approach it. And, you know, I acknowledge the risk of investing and pitching. that's why you need more of them. And I would rather, because I don't think there's like a tier of super aces out there, I would rather draft four pitchers who are on the verge of AISDM,

who have the upside of Aces, than take two of guys who I assume are Aces and then end up burning me. The funny thing is, if you go back to like 2018 SP preview discussions, we're having the same debate, even though the landscape has changed. Well, I was spending more on pitching then. Yeah. But no, but I do want to be clear.

Like, when I say I want two starting pitchers in the first four rounds, like that will never be Tyler Glass now. And it will probably never be Terrick Schuble or Cole Regens or who, like, it's probably going to be, like I said, an Aaron Nola type who might be a little more boring, but who I can also count on for that, that hopefully not. disastrous ERA because last year was obviously really bad.

But like if it's a 35, 36 ERA, not elite, but it comes with 210 strikeouts and 200 innings and really stabilizes and allows me to stream more comfortably or take more of those flyers on the upside guys later in the draft. You know, if my hope is I have 295 inning, 200 plus strikeout guys to anchor my staff. And that gives me the freedom to not take another starting pitcher until round 12. You know, like that, I think that's still the way I want to approach. And obviously, I've only done a couple of drafts so far. So we'll see how my thoughts change as I do more because it may just not be worth taking

Aaron Nola and Garrett Cole. It just might not be worth whatever that costs. And I might have to shift. But right now, at least in theory, that's my preference. It's time to get into the glob. The next tier is named the start of the glob, and it features 18 names, which I will not read off at this moment. We'll go in groups of six.

I'll read them off in just a little bit. But Scott, for those that are just kind of getting back into fantasy baseball and picking up podcasts, maybe this is the first time they've ever heard the fantasy baseball today podcast, remind those what the glob is and why it starts here in particular. So the glob. are just pictures that you can't trust, basically. They are the ones most susceptible to this environment I laid out at the top of the show

where from start to start, it just feels like a random number generator what they're going to give you. They're not dominant enough overall to transcend the glob to verge on Ace production. But they'll fake it. just long enough to lure you into the glob and swallow you up into it

and wreck your team's ERA when you least expect it. So I think of the glob as just this huge interchangeable, this huge mass of interchangeable pitchers where it doesn't so much matter who in particular you target from the glob. Like this is the stretch of the pitching rankings where it's like, all right, if I haven't filled out my pitching staff already, there's no point. There's no point. I'm probably going to be exchanging half these guys for streamables off the waiver wire over the course of the season anyway. This is where, so the way it kind of, the blueprint I follow for draft this year is basically first two or three rounds, hitters, because those are like MVP caliber bats. And then grab as many pitchers. as I can before we enter the glob, and then once we're in the glob, pivot back to bats,

because there's just not enough assurances to be found here in the glob. I mentioned there were 18 names in this tier, the start of the glob, and again, I'll go in groups of six, and first up, we have Dylan Cis, Gavin Williams, Chris Sale, Michael King, Joe Ryan, Christian Javier, Chris, who is your favorite from this start of the glob? I'm kind of inclined to say Dylan Seas just to be a contrarian because I was out on Dylan Seas last year but I think my favorite here is probably Joe Ryan

who we talked a lot about in the rankings difference podcast I think two weeks ago he's a top 24 starting pitcher for me I think the improvements he made last season I really buy you know ERA is a question mark but I think the skill set suggests he's more like a mid-3s ERA guy than a high fours ERA guy.

There are wide error bars in both directions in that. But I think Joe Ryan's probably the one I'm going with. What's interesting about this group of six, and I'll go through the names again, Dylan Seas, Gavin Williams, Chris Sale, Sunny Gray, less so him, Michael King, Joe Ryan, Christian Javier, right? That's where you stopped.

All of them. I didn't have Sunny Gray in there, Scott. I just copy and pasted it from the article. So I don't know if there's a difference. Oh, maybe I move Sunny Gray up. Yeah, maybe. Okay. They have the upside to transcend the glob.

It's more of a downside case that causes me to reject all of them and put them outside of it. And I'm hedging most on Dylan C's. Obviously, he's at the top of the glob. I kind of like the value he's at. And so just to get myself more shares of him, I kind of want to tear him with the previous group and pull him outside of the glob. But that feels intellectually dishonest because you're, was very gloppy last year. Very gloppy.

I will say, I think he's just Blake Snell. That might make someone mad, but like, and I very much view him the same way I've always viewed Blake Snow where I want to buy the dip and sell the rise. You know, so like I'm much more likely to buy Dylan C's now that he's not a top 10 starting pitcher in ADP. And I'll add that I like Chris Sale. I have him as one of my sleepers this year. I like the cost of him.

So it's obviously not universally true that I'm never going to prioritize anybody from this globy tier. You just don't want to have to. You just don't want to be in a position where you have to because that means you're really playing with fire. If you're counting on any of these pitchers here is like your number three in fantasy. You might just be screwed in ERA.

They're going to be my number threes. Dylan Sees, by the way, has been subject to many trade rumors, but the latest is, the price is very high. And, you know, he's quote unquote, you know, they're not going to accept an offer anytime soon. But my guess is he'll either be traded, he'll be traded at some point this year, if not by opening day, you know, probably by the trade deadline. The next six includes Hunter Green, Sunny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, who remains a free agent, Chris Bassett, Jose Burrios, and Shane Bieber. Any hope for Shane Bieber, the ADP all the way down to 175? Strikeout rate plummeted last year.

He was limited to 21 starts due to that dreaded forearm strain. Any hope on a bounce back here for Shane Bieber? No, not really. In fact, I'm kind of worried I'm ranking too high, more than ranking him too low. I'm pretty much out on Justin Bieber. Obviously, the velocity drop came. Wait, you're out on Justin Bieber or Shane? I'm out on Justin Bieber, too.

I'm out on Shane Beaver. My gosh, I'm an idiot. All right, yeah, I'm out on Shane Bieber. The velocity drop came two years ago, and he still had an ace caliber season because his breaking balls were so effective. They were, like, unnaturally good. And so that made up for him having a terrible fastball.

But their effectiveness dropped off last year, and he began to mix in a cutter more that wasn't any sort of batmissor at all. So everything just plummeted for Bieber last year. And I guess it's possible he could regain the effectiveness on those breaking balls. But that seems like a losing bet if that's what you're betting on. The fastball obviously coming back, don't see that happening. And what's interesting about Shane Bieber for as disappointing as he was,

for everybody who had the displeasure of rostering him last year. He was one of the biggest overachievers by expected ERA. His actual ERA 380, his expected ERA 483. And now that's been a pretty consistent factor for him. He's

pretty much always outperformed his expected ERA in a way that like when you do it five years in a row, it's there's probably some skill there. But even then, it's I don't think the 3A ERA was bad luck. You know, like, I think that's probably around where, like,

the optimistic viewpoint should land on Bieber. And that's just, it's hard to be excited about that. The final six names in this tier, the start of the glob includes Carlos Rodon, U. Darvish, Nathan Avaldi, Shane Boz, Nick Pavetta, and Ryan Pepio. This, I mean, I guess, mini tier within the tier, loaded with upside, you know, Can Rodon stay healthy? Can he bounce back? His first year in New York was a disaster.

Baz has nasty stuff, but how many innings are we going to get in Tampa Bay? Povetta is a popular breakout pick. Pepio was the centerpiece of the Tyler Glass Now trade. So within the tier, obviously, not so much proven. And, you know, we saw some pretty big question marks like with Rodon and a U. Darvish, are these guys healthy? But I still think some pretty big upside with some of those names as well. Oh, yeah, there is.

I mean, I like, I have, my breakout's 1.0 comes out. It might be out by the time you're listening to this. I have Povetta and Pepio in there. Carlos Rodon, I have is one of my sleepers. You know, he's kind of like Dylan C's. In fact, I'm looking at this now, I'm kind of tempted to move him up my rankings a bit. But it is, it is an assurance issue. And it's, it's one of those things where, like, the tiers have to match the rankings.

And I have to rank Sunny Gray, Jordan, Montgomery, Chris Bassett, Jose Barrios. I have to rank them at a certain point ahead of really volatile but upsidey pitchers like Shane Boz and Nick Povetta. I think they, I think those risky upsidey pitchers, Boz and Povetta, they're more likely to transcend the glob than the Chris Bassett's and Jose Barrios's. It's just. But they have to, they have to be drafted after them.

Yeah. Like once we get to April and we see two starts from Shane Boreos. it might be, oh, he's a top 25 starting pitcher. And then we have to remind ourselves that even if he's a top 25 starting pitcher while he pitches, his chances of continuing to pitch are much lower than those guys. And so this is one of those things that's always difficult. And that's kind of why I like getting those two eight like anchors. That way I can have a little more flexibility and prioritize, you know,

a Shane Boss as like a number five starting pitcher rather than. then, you know, oh, well, I need annings. So I guess I'll get Jose Barrios. Like, I don't want any part of that. Yeah, do with this what you will. But Shane Boz, according to projections over on fan graphs, he's projected anywhere between 90 and 115 innings. Can he exceed that?

Sure, it's possible. But again, it's the raise. And he's coming back from Tommy John. I think they're going to play it pretty safe with Shane Boz's upcoming season. One more quick note before we move on. I have since the published version of the tiers came out,

I have moved Bailey Ober up to this tier. So he is now a start of glob pitcher as opposed to an end of glob pitcher. I love it. I love it, Scott. I got Bailey Ober

coming out in Sleepers 1.0. Again, should be live on the site when the time people are listening to this. The end of the glob, 36 names. Guess what?

I'm not reading 36 names. But there are lots of interesting names within this tier and so I will throw it to you guys, your quickest analysis possible. Give me, I don't know, two, three names that stand out

from the end of the glob tier that interests you. Andrew Abbott's on my sleepers. I think there are paths to success. I think he's got a nice baseline of skills and it wouldn't take too much tweaking for him to get, you know, I think out of the glob.

If, you know, if we're looking for that kind of upside, I think Louis Severino was also one of my sleepers. There's been some talk that he might have been tipping his pitches, which would make sense because the physical characteristics of his pitches didn't change nearly as much as what happened when batters swung at them. And so I'm hoping that there is some possible explanation for why Luis Severino was so bad in a way that wasn't necessarily reflected in the pitch level data. and Hunter Brown, I think, is underrated.

I think the final ERA ended up really, really, really bad. But there were, there are reasons to be optimistic that he'll be much better than he was last season, that he won't hit the wall the same way he did, hopefully. There are plenty of Nishoto Imanaga. I think there's a lot to like about him. The pitch, the Stuff Plus model really, really likes what he did in the World Baseball Classic last year. This is a fun tier. Yeah.

I'm going to, like, I don't want my number three starting pitcher to come here, but like, I want a bunch of these guys in my SP6 to 10, you know, range. Yeah. Scott, your two to three names that you're interested in from this tier in a minute or less. Probably not going to be the last time you hear about these guys because they're all sleepers for me. Christopher Sanchez, his 57% ground ball rate would have ranked second among qualifiers. If he had the innings to qualify, his 4% walk rate would have ranked fourth. And then he started getting a ton of strikeouts to the final month of the season, used his change

at Moore. It had a 43% whiff rate. It gave him a 17% swinging strike rate in the month of September, 2-10 strikeout outings, one against the Braves. That's all three legs of the fifth triangle, if he can keep that up. See some upside there for Christopher Sanchez. Emmett Sheehan of the Dodgers, provided they have a spot for him, they go six-man. I'm really impressed by what he did over his final three starts, 198 ERA.78.73, with 15.8K per 9. Stop throwing his fastball so much,

had a 23% swinging strike rate in those final three starts, which may seem like a small sample fluke, but he had a 20% swinging strike rate at AA. And I think there's just so much swing and miss potential there with Emmett Sheehan. And then finally, Eric Fetty, coming back from Korea, signing with the White Sop. He was the Korean League's equivalent of both the Tsayyang and MVP went 20 and 6 with a 2-ERA, 209 strikeouts, and 180 in a third innings.

So what? It's Eric Fetty, right? Maybe they're just bad at baseball in Korea. Well, he actually completely changed his pitching arsenal before going over there. White Sox pitching advisor Brian Bannister actually compared it to Logan Webb's arsenal. Fetty put up some web-like underlying numbers in Korea, especially the 70% ground ball rate, which is just unheard of. And I think Eric Fetty is going to be in steel and drafts this year. I agree with you guys on a lot of the names that you mentioned,

Sanchez, Imanaga, both of my sleepers 1.0 as well. Two names that you guys haven't mentioned yet that I'm pretty excited about. Brian Wu, who had an amazing fastball last year, a higher swinging strike rate on his four-seem fastball than Spencer Striders. He has underrated secondary pitch. with his cutter and his slider. The Mariners have done great job, a great job developing their starting pitchers as well. And I know some people are probably tired of Aaron Savali, but he kind of reminds me of Zach Eflin from a year ago. Elite curveball throws 91 to 92 miles per hour

with his fast balls. The race turned Eflin into a breakout. I see a lot of similarities between those two pitchers. And even if Savali doesn't break out, he's a career 392 ERA and a 115 whip. if I get that in like a deeper league, I think that's totally fine from my whatever. SP 678, wherever you're going to get Aaron Savali. The Leftover's Tier features 38 names, and you could find all of them in Scott's article. SPTiers 1.0 at CBSSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball.

Let's take our final break, and when we return some news and notes, I do want to talk about Colt Keith, some reliever signings. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's wrap up with the latest news and notes, the Tigers signed one of their top prospects,

Colt Keith, to a six-year $28.6 million extension that includes club options for 2030, 2031, and 2032. Last year in the miners, Colt Keith hit 306 with 27 home runs and a 932 OPS does not offer any speed whatsoever. But some batting average, some power. He did get 67 games in at AAA.

And according to Jeff Passing, Keith should be Detroit's opening day second baseman. He's played some third, some second, some DH, but it sounds like he's going to play second base for the Tigers. Scott, as of now, Keith only has third base eligibility on CBS. How far do you plan on moving him up the rankings, if at all? Should he kind of move up into that Michael Bush, Brett Beatty range of the third base rankings? Yeah, I might put him right between those two, actually,

behind Bush and ahead of Beatty. I think that makes sense. I am, in terms of Colt Keith as a dynasty asset, what I think his upside is for fantasy, I'm a little bearish on him, mostly because he's going to be playing in Detroit, which just neutralizes power in a really upsetting way when you look at some of the players, home away splits, play for the Tigers. Colt Keith is, you know, he has good power, but his exit velocity readings of AAA last year, pretty underwhelming.

89 mile per hour average he has a velocity, 110 mile per hour max exit velocity. These Nolan Aeronado-like exit velocities, which Aeronado can get away with because he pulls the ball so much. But I don't know that it'd be so great if he was playing, if he's a left-handed hitter playing in Detroit. And so I'm thinking Colt Keith might be like a Brandon Drury type for fantasy. Could walk a fair amount more.

And so maybe that's underselling his potential for points leagues. But that's kind of what I'm envisioning for him in Detroit. And that's, you know, provided he's up to the challenge of hitting against major league pitchers every day. I will say Keith does have a pretty pull heavy and fly ball heavy swing. It's hard to go one for one comparing AAA and, you know, the majors because we're not using the same data necessarily. But his pull rates last season were 45% at both. levels, double A and AAA. His fly ball rates weren't like extreme, but they were right around 40%. He hit more fly balls than ground balls. Um, so I, I do think there's some potential

for him to be a 25 homer guy who doesn't hurt you in batting average. The problem is, Drory. Yeah. Yeah. There's just probably not going to be any speed who knows about the, the offense around him, what that's going to do to counting stats. But I'm willing to move him up to the fringe of the top 20 at third base just because like once you get past Max Muncie, it's kind of boring, right? Like I'd rather take the chance on Colt Keith and Ryan. We have Muncie ranked, but yeah,

I mean, once you get past the like, Bome, Muncie, yeah, burger, Hayes. Yeah, yeah, that whole like, we're talking the same range. I'd rather take the chance on Colt Keith than like Ryan McMahon. Yeah. Yeah. Or even like, Jammer Candelaria is a tough one because...

No, come on, Chris. The Colt Keith outcome, like the optimistic outcome may not look that different from Jamer Candelaria. So like, and Candelarias in a better home park. So that's a tough one. But like, I think that like 200-ish overall range is probably a place where I'd feel pretty okay

with Colt Keith. especially because like, it doesn't guarantee he's going to make the opening day roster, but this probably means he's making the opening day roster. Especially when someone like Jeff Passen tweeted it out, like clearly someone in the Tigers organization or his agent or somebody told Jeff Passant to include that. Like, yeah, likely to be opening day second baseman. Like he didn't just kind of put that in there for nothing. So I think it's pretty likely for Colt Keith.

If anybody wants to check this out, Fangraphs has a unique. tool called their steamer 600 projections. It just takes steamer projections and kind of extrapolates them over 600 plate appearances. Gives you an idea what a player would do if he plays, gets everyday playing time. Colt Keith in 600 plate appearances projected 261, 17 homers, 70 runs, 70 RBI. So just to kind of throw out what they are expecting, what the steamer projections are expecting. Some reliever news, the Rangers signed David Robertson to a one-year deal worth between 11, and $12 million. Robertson turned, turns 39 years old in April,

had a pretty rough go once he was traded over to the Marlins last season, an ERA over 5, 159 whip during that time. He still does have 38 saves over the past two years. Is a very well-established reliever at this point. Chris, come to you here on the Rangers bullpen. How are you projecting things here? Do you think it's still Jose LeClerc to start, but he's kind of got his head on a swivel

with guys like Robertson and Kirby Yates? What do you think with the Rangers? Neither Jose LeClerc nor Kirby Yates seems like such a sure thing that I want to project either of them to be the closer. So that does kind of push me in the direction of David Robertson. I know he was really, really bad once he got to Miami last year. But he was really, really good overall. I kind of think that baseball gods just lumped all of the Marlins one run success. Just everything that went on the opposite side of the ledger was just on David Robertson's.

played. It was a, and it was really like, it was like a bad two weeks, if I'm remembering correctly for David Robertson, and then he kind of finally settled down. So I think he's probably the best reliever in their bullpen. It's not a particularly good bullpen. If the Rangers have one weakness, it's probably the bullpen. So I'm, I think I'd say he's probably the odds on favorite for saves right now. I just feel like, I mean, LeClerc was the closer that got them to the promise land. I feel like he has to be entering the year with so much confidence from the team right now because he had a bad out he had one bad outing in the ALCS basically but otherwise was nails for them throughout the postseason and is a part of the reason they won the world series so i i think

he would enter as the guy i don't know that i have the trust in him to keep the job but that's i would draft leclerc as if he's the closer to start out i think that's entirely possible i don't know that the Rangers per se have a lot of confidence got because making moves like this during the all season and how they used them though they used them like an ace reliever throughout the postseason they did but they also brought him in into high leverage spots and he mostly came through they didn't have other well-established you know relievers

with closing experience in the past yeah but Chapman was a mess in the playoffs he was walking everybody I don't know I just he came through I read I read this as you know bringing in Yates and Robertson as okay we needed more experience here in case. It probably is LeClerc to start, but I think the leish is the Braves DFA. Kirby? Are we overrating Kirby? Kirby,

Kobe is probably not good, but like Robertson still had a 303 ERA and a 119 whip. He's pretty good. I think Robertson's very good. The one thing I would say is even if we project LeClerc as the closer to open the season, it's not a profile where I would say, oh yeah, this guy's going to remain the closer. You know, he's certainly not someone that like, I want to invest any kind of draft capital in. Yeah. I think I declined Kirby Yates option.

I don't think it was a DFA situation. But anyway. The Cubs signed Hector Nairis to a one year $9 million deal. And he's coming off a 171 ERA 105 whip. Though his fastball velocity was down 1.4 miles per hour compared to 2022. Narris has 89 career saves. Scott, do you think Nairis will factor into the. Cub's closer mix or is it still advert Alzalai's jobs loose?

I mean, Azalai was really good as the closer last year. I'm a little more worried about this situation, at least to start out, that they might shy away from Alzalai in the ninth inning and go with Nairus because Nairus has more closing experience.

I'm still ranking Alis ahead, but I think it's less than a four on conclusion that he'll be the guy. The Mets re-signed Adam Adavino to a one-year $4.5 million contract. Coming off a solid year should work as the setup man to Edwin Diaz. The deback signed Jock Peterson to a one-year $9.5 million deal, which includes a mutual option for 2025. Peterson coming off a season where he hit $2.35 with 15 home runs and a 764 OPS

with the Giants was clearly much better the year prior. Can he tap back into that? Not so sure. Still hits the ball really hard for what it's worth. He looks like the strong side platoon as the designated hitter for the debacks. Chris, is there any possible way that you have interest in Jock Peterson this year? I mean, in like 15 team leagues, he'll give you cheap power. I'm just, I'm smiling because you know who he's replacing, right? Tommy Pham, that's right.

Yeah. I like that wrinkle. A long history of the fantasy football drama between those two. One other aspect of this I did want to bring up. With siding jock Peterson, him likely to be the DH, pushes Lordus Guerrille to left field, keeps Ehio-Swaris at third base. I think it further complicates things for Jordan Lawler to start.

Obviously, there are paths here if Geraldo Perdomo struggles or Suarez is just really bad. There are ways for Jordan Lawler to work back in, but there is another name in the mix, so just kind of keep that in mind, I guess, for Jordan Lawler's 2024. Max Freed told reporters at Bravesfest that he is the healthiest he's been after an injury-riddled 2023 season entering a contract year,

so hopefully he can stay on the field. Max Scherzer hopes to be ready to rejoin the Rangers' rotation by June or July. He had surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back six weeks ago. Jacob de Grom said Saturday that he plans to begin throwing again this spring. He underwent Tommy John's surgery in July, which means he likely won't be back until August or September. What if theirs your Rangers closer for the stretch run? Imagine that.

How crazy is it to think? The Rangers just won the World Series. They're going to get Jacob de Grom back at some point. They're such a weird team. Max Scherzer back at some point. They're in such a weird spot. Tyler Malley, they're adding Wyatt Langford. It's a weird.

It's so weird because they just won the World Series. Yeah. They're probably two best pitchers aren't healthy, and we have no idea what to expect from them this season. They're adding two top 10 prospects to their lineup. I mean, one of them was already in the lineup for the postseason run, but like it's a weird spot. You look at their rotation right now.

It looks terrible. Yeah. Because DeGrom and Scherzer aren't a part of it. It's bad. Andrew Heaney, third, Dane Dunning forth. Roster resource has Cody Bradford in the fifth spot right now.

Something tells me they're probably not done adding to their rotation just yet. The A's are signing Alex Wood last year. Had a 433 ERA 143 whip. Probably doesn't matter outside of like AL only leagues, but there you go. Alex Wood to the A's. Orioles GM

Mike Elias said that the team still views D.L. Hall as a starter long term. Elias added that it's still possible Hall breaks camp as a reliever this season, though. Carlos Carrasco signed a minor league contract with the Guardians with an invitation to Major League spring training,

and the latest rumors, Big Bob Nightingale reported that the Mariners have quietly entered trade talks for Dylan C's. We're gonna wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow

and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again on Wednesday. Bye-bye. You know,