Fantasy Baseball Today - 2024 Third Base Recap! Top Performers & Early 2025 Rankings! (10/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 29, 2024

Let's begin with preseason ADP at third base (3:00). ... Jose Ramirez nearly went 40-40 (6:16)! ... Jazz Chisholm finally stayed healthy and put up big power and speed (10:22). ... Manny Machado got off to a slow start and then he was awesome (17:14). ... Matt Chapman had a big first season with the Giants (19:09). ... Eugenio Suarez had a huge second half (24:35). ... Rafael Devers had an injury-riddled season (27:17). ... Alex Bregman had a solid season but is now a free agent (34:39). ... Alec Bohm started hot but faded (38:47). ... Jake Burger got off to a really slow start (40:56). ... The World Series is just about over (43:30). ... Who are the top six third baseman entering 2025 (51:06)? ... How high does Junior CAMINEROOOOO rank (56:57)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Third base, not nearly as bad as second base. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, October 29th.

I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Tower. today on the show, we are recapping the top performers at third base from this past season and taking an early look at 2025 rankings. We also have a masterpiece created by our own Scott White that we will reveal later on. So make sure you stick around for the early rankings for next year portion because Masterpiece, you say. I would call it a masterpiece. Chris, you've heard it.

It's very good. I think it's very good. Yeah. Chris doesn't. Chris doesn't say masterpiece, I noticed, though. He just says, very good. I don't have, like, masterpieces, like, Johannes Vermeer made masterpieces.

I don't know if this is, like, on the same level as girl with a pearl earring, but it's very good. No, they're going to be talking about this for, for six years. Yeah. Let's begin with a third base 80P review, as we do for every other position. The top 10 third baseman,

entering the season in the average draft position. Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, Raphael Devers, Ellie Dela Cruz, Gunner Henderson, Mani Machado, Royce Lewis, Alex Bregman, Hassan Kim, and Nolan Aronado. Six out of 10 were correct. Ramirez, Ellie, Gunner, Machado, Devers,

and Spencer Steer. But like second base, we do have some players that are losing out on third base eligibility. Heading into next season, Ellie Dele Cruz, Gunner Henderson, Spencer Steer, Hassan Kim, Michael Bush and Colts Keith.

But we also game two, Janice Chisholm and Connor Norby. Chris, one word to describe third base. How are we feeling here? Real quick. Vladimir Guerrero was also losing third base eligibility. I don't think you mentioned him. Did not mention him.

Yeah. One word to describe third base, lonely. With everybody leaving. Ooh. You know, like all the, you know, Allie and Gunner. and Vlad, everybody's leaving third.

Everybody's abandoning Third Bay. Yeah, those are some big, big names where you look at like, we'll talk a lot about Jazz Chishol very shortly, but I did a Twitter poll the other day asking, is it too much to say that Jazz Chisholm has top two overall upside at third base? And it was like 70% said yes. And I think those people just don't realize how much talent. is leaving the third base position from 2024 to 2025

to the point where, as we will talk about shortly, Jess Chisholm was the number two player at third base in 2024. There's extenuating circumstances there, but it's, I think it's fine at the top of the position. It's probably, I don't know, is it better than first base? I think it better than first base. Yeah, slightly, I would say. Probably not as deep.

Like when you get to like the 18 range, I think first base is definitely better. Yeah. But I like the top 10 at third base more than first base. There are more quality starters at third base than first base, but fewer corner and field options, I would say. It's, it's, it feels pretty bad overall. Like compared to where we've seen third base in the past,

third base kind of goes up and down in terms of how deep, shallow it is. But it feels like the rest of, the infield basically not as bad as second base maybe not as bad as first base but still kind of bad and uh it's like i said uh in one of the recent shows it's just kind of the shame the order we go through the positions because it's like we're getting all the bad ones out of the way first because well once we get to shortstop and then later the outfield you'll see that's where a lot of the the hitting talent has uh built up as we do for each position we We'll take a look back at the top 10 finishers at third base.

And again, we don't really need to spend too much time on each player. Maybe just a quick thought on where that player is at and, you know, where they might be moving forward. But the number one third baseman this past season, no surprise. It was Jose Ramirez. And if we're looking at points per game, 4.1 fantasy points per game. That was tops at the position as well. Put together what might be the best season of Jose Ramirez's career.

He narrowly missed a 40-40 season, 3,900. homers, 41 steals, 232 runs plus RBI. He was incredible. One of the most reliable first round picks. Scott, I guess my only potential worry is that progressive field was awesome this year for left-handed power. Is that going to be the case in 2025? I don't really see any reason why it wouldn't, but I guess there's a chance that maybe

left-handed power takes a step back. And instead of almost 40 home runs, we get 30 home runs. but it's i think we're all still expecting a really awesome season from hose armires next year yeah it's regardless of how progressive field plays next year it's it's probably safe to assume he'll hit fewer than 39 home runs in 2023 jose ramirez hit 24 home runs it was a difference of 15 and that was on the lower end of this decade long run of jose ramirez being a first round type actually got him pushed out of the first round in some drafts heading into this year. But, you know, there's a range of outcomes here regardless of how progressive field plays.

He's always, he spent his whole career there. We've seen his home runs fluctuate from mid-20s to high 30s. And regardless of where it falls in that range, he's probably going to give you a high number of stolen bases. Again, probably not the 41 he just gave you, but somewhere between 25. and 35, I would say, for Jose Ramirez. He's going to give you a solid batting average, maybe not as good as some of the first rounders, but it's not like he's a negative in batting average.

Good number of runs, good number of RBI. Those are pretty much always there for Jose Ramirez. So he's at least a B plus in everything and has a chance of being an A in some of those categories, as we saw with home runs and stolen bases this year. and it's forever going to bother me that the Guardian's 162nd game was rained out not made up because it didn't have any playoff implications

and he was denied his chance for 40-40 because that's still a historic accomplishment. He almost went 40-40-40 with 40 homers, 40 doubles, and 40 seals which again, look, it was an awesome season regardless, but yeah, it's like how often can you say that about a player? Not very often. we are going to skip over L.A. Dela Cruz, Gunner Henderson, and Vladimir Guerrero, who, again, they gained third base this past season.

Vlad had 12 games there, but none of those names will have third base eligibility moving forward. So, what's more of those? Of them, Vlad's the only one that really has a chance to play much third base this year, right? Like, I can't imagine, like, what would have to happen for the Reds or Orioles to play Ellie De LaCruz and Gunner Anderson at shortstop? I think it's more like, I don't know, at least the Reds have other short stops. The Orioles, like, unless Jackson Hollow, like, I can't imagine what the, what the work. Because Jackson Holley is really only a player on that roster who plays shortstop. Is, I haven't looked at the defensive metrics for him. How is Ellie de la Cruz?

He's very, very good. He makes a lot of errors, but he's very good. Yeah. Then they'll probably stick with him there. They could shift things around Matt McLean playing shortstop, Jonathan Indy at second. As things stand, I imagine Jonathan Indy is moving to third base, which is how he started out in the minors.

So that's not too much of a stretch. And then the Orioles, same thing. Holiday could play shortstop. You can move Jordan Westberg over to second and stick Gunner Henderson at third if you thought that was your best defensive alignment. But I don't think either of those. organizations is going to think that's their best defensive alignment.

So if we skip over to those names, the next third basement up, Jazz Chisholm, who averaged three fantasy points per game, which is solid, maybe lower than you'd expect. But Jazz is not really a big OBP guy. He does strike out a decent amount, not, you know, actually got better this season. But he finally managed to stay healthy, flash the power and speed, 24 homers, 40 steals, a career high, 147 games for Jazz. He got better after he was traded to the game. He actually improved against lefties this season two.

Not that he was good. He was around a 700 OPS, but that's much better than what we've seen from Jazz in the past. Chris, one thing here that worries me with Jazz is suffered a UCL sprain in August. Will he need surgery at some point? That kind of feels like an injury that could pop up again in the future. So just things that kind of worry me a little bit there with Jazz. And he hasn't been good in the postseason for the year. He was bad in September and he's been pretty bad in post-season.

It looked like he's hitting. Three stolen bases in game one, though. Yeah, it looks like he's hitting below 200 in the postseason overall. But that all being said, yeah, you look at the overall pace, especially after he got traded to the Yankees. I think it was 36 homers, 59 steals, 39 homers, 63 stolen bases, was Jazz Chisholm's pay. after getting traded to the Yankees.

And that was why I asked the question earlier about whether he has top two upside. And I know Austin Riley and Raphael Devers, there's some really good other players at third base. But I think obviously a lot can go wrong for Jazz Chisholm. And so far in his career, more has probably gone wrong than right on the whole, at least relative to other players.

I think the best case scenario is season for Jazz Chisholm is probably better than Riley or Devers, at least in a 5 by 5 context. And it's easier to say that having seen after he got traded to the Yankees what a best case scenario can look like. And he's a guy who the underlying numbers don't back up what he's done three years in a row.

And I think that's probably a sign that his athleticism, his pull-heavy swing makes him a decent bet to continue to outperform and playing a Yankee Stadium probably makes that even more likely, at least from a power perspective. So, yeah, I mean, the way you phrase it upside, does he have top two top side at the position, not as the expectation a top two performance. And the reason I'm not ranking Jazz Chisholm second at third base for next year is because,

you know, just because he managed to stay healthy this year, that that is the exception to the rule. He's had a very difficult time. And right. Yeah, he suffered UCL issue, a sprain, late in the year. That fortunately doesn't seem like it's going to require surgery and didn't seem to impact his performance. So he's probably fine, but that goes to show how quickly an injury can change things,

particularly for this player, for Jazz Chisholm. The other reasons I'm ranking him behind Riley endeavors are like a pretty low batting average ceiling here. He's clear batting average limitation. for Jazz Chisholm. And also, as good as his home run and stolen base pace was with the Yankees, the run and RBI pace was pretty bad, just because of where they bat him in the lineup. And I don't see any reason to think that'll change.

Maybe if Glaber Torres leaves, they'll consider Jazz Chesim for the leadoff spot, and that would be a pretty big deal going from batting, what is usually, like, sixth or seventh. Yeah, like fifth or sixth usually. Yeah, to lead off. would help things. But that's another reason why don't just focus on the home runs and stole bases there because everything else for Jazz Chisholm is kind of less than ideal. Yeah, it just feels like a high variance play all around.

Like you mentioned Chris, the upside is, I think, massive sky high for Jazz. The downside, you know, based on the injuries and strikeouts that we've seen in the past, struggles against lefties. I think there's a pretty big downside for him as well. The nice thing is you're not going to have to draft him as the number two third base. Right. Yeah, you'll, I don't know exactly where the ADP's going to settle in. It'll be four or five, I think. Yeah, probably a top, you know, 60 player draft and something like that.

Yeah, when I, I was actually putting together my top 600 for Roto prior to this. Still got a ways to go. But, uh, jazz chisholm, man, where does it come out? I thought I had it ready here. Okay, so he comes out 29th for me. It was actually surprised how I ended up putting him. And I'll actually have to make a change in my third base rankings when we, go to talk about them.

All right. Well, before we take our first break, you can always listen to FBT in our five-minute podcast, Fantasy Baseball today in five on Spotify. Scan the QR code on the screen now if you're watching on YouTube, and that will take you right to the FBT Spotify feed. Let's take our first break. And when we return, back into our third base recap. We'll do that right after this.

Welcome back in the top two third baseman again. were Jose Ramirez and Jazz Chisholm, kind of. The number three third basin was Mani Machado, who averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game. He was just ahead of jazz in that format. Slightly better plate discipline there for Mani Machado. Got off to a slow start, but then really pick things up, hit 275 with 29 home runs,

105 RBI, and 11 steals, and kind of feels like he could be even better next year. He's not recovering from an elbow surgery or anything like that. He'll also be 32 years old. But overall, Scott, I feel pretty good all around for someone like Manny Machado. I feel great about Manny Machado because there were two years in a row there where he was impacted by that elbow injury first playing through it. And then kind of making a hurried return from surgery.

Remember, he was actually limited to playing D.H. Early in 2024 because they didn't want him making throws from third base. From June 1st on, Manny Machado hit two-nuchado hit two-night. 94 with an 879 OPS. So he basically looked like prime Manny Machado again after back to back years playing through that elbow injury finishing with an OPS just below

800. It was closer to 900 over those final four months. And this is a Hall of Fame caliber player who's still in his early 30s and is in a great lineup. And my initial inclination was to rank him ahead of Jazz Chisholm. This is actually the change I'm going to make.

I'm dropping Machado behind Jazz Chisholm. because because of the upside Chisholm offers with the stolen bases that that Machado doesn't. But just it and because I don't think anyone else is going to draft him that way. So, okay, I'll wait around like everybody else to take Machado. But my point is that's how excited I am about Machado that I was willing to do them even over Chisholm. That was just kind of my first gut level reaction. The number four third baseman was Matt Chapman. He averaged three fantasy points per game on the nose,

had a very strong first season with the Giants, where he hit 247 with 27 home runs, 98 run scored, and 15 steals. Those steals really kind of popped up out of nowhere. He had 11 total steals in its first seven years of his career, but he's also 84th percentile sprint speed. So maybe we don't expect 15 steals, but can he chip in another, I don't know, 8 to 10?

I don't think it's impossible for Matt Chapman to do something like that. Chris, we recorded way too early busts last week as a bonus FBT and 5 episode. But you know what? As I started digging into Matt Chapman, I really liked what I saw, man. What has you so concerned about Matt Chapman? Part of it is just what a weird year this was for Matt Chapman, right? Like, I think the biggest thing is obviously the stolen basis, right? He goes from basically being a total zero in his career to 15.

And like you mentioned, the sprint speed was. was 84th percentile last season, which was a rebound. But like he has actually, I thought the hip injury slowed him down more than it did, but he was pretty consistently in the high 70 percentile. And never ran this much. And look,

it was a new team. So maybe that just explains it and that's all we have to think about. But there were some weird things with the Giants where, I'm blanking on the name of the guy who led them and steal. the previous year who barely ran this year. And it was like, some guys who should have ran didn't, Tara Estrada.

Right. He only had two stolen bases this year. He had 23 the year before, 21 the year before that. It was just like a weird thing where like only Matt Chapman and Tyler Fitzgerald ran for the Giants this year. There's the only players with more than six steals for them. And then the other thing for me is,

Chapman batted fourth or fifth most of the season and he scored 98 runs. While being a decent but not great hitter, 328 on base percentage again, that's fine, but it's not great. Only 78 RBI. It's just like the production that he gave us last year

was very weird in a way that, look, maybe it just comes out in the wash next year. And instead of 98 runs and 78 RBI, he has 98, 95 runs and 80 RBI. and it looks exactly the same and it just makes a little more sense. But it's just the way he came about the production was weird. And then going from Toronto, which has been a not great hitters park to San Francisco, all of a sudden we see after he underperforms his expected stats multiple years in a row,

he's overperforming or performing to them this year in a way where I would have expected underperformance playing half as games in San Francisco, especially for a guy who relies on hitting the ball to the power alley so much. So it just, I put it all together and like, I love the player. Matt Chapman is one of my favorite players in baseball. I think he is, if not the best defensive player I've ever watched to play baseball. He's number two behind Andrewton Simmons. I truly think he is like an all-time great defensively.

I just don't trust the bat and I don't trust the way he came about his production this year. If I could make a couple counter points here. Go for it. One is the stolen bases. Look, they put him

in terms of where he finished in 2024. Those stolen bases help Matt Chapman finish ahead of Raphael Devers. So it would be a problem if people are drafting him ahead of Raphael Devers. He would really need to deliver those steals. Nobody's going to draft him

close to where Rafael Devers is drafted next year. So I don't think the steals are even necessary for him to live up to what his draft position will be. There's a chance for them and that'll be great, but it'll be a nice bonus for Chapman if he delivers them again. The other thing is, and you kind of mentioned it, what he did this past year seem like what he should have been doing all the long. And I think there are reasons why he got kind of lost and ended up underperforming his expected stats. The biggest is that final year in Toronto, 2023, Matt Chapman,

his pull rate on fly balls was by far the lowest of his career. And I talked about this article I remember prior to the season where that was something he and Bo Bichette, another player whose power numbers have fallen way off. That was something they worked on.

They wanted to drive the ball to the opposite way. And I think it just messed him up. His strikeout rate ballooned there for a few years. It got back closer to something we were seeing from Chapman earlier in his career this past year. So I do think there's a lot to like here as long as you're not expecting stolen bases

and as long as you're not expecting batting average help. I think Matt Chapman, once all the studs are off the board and that's where I think he'll go, I think he'll probably live up to his draft position. Yeah, I think he's more of a fringe starter. But like, I think it's fine to draft him. If like if you end up out on third base and he's your option, I think it's probably okay. But I do notice you have him a few spots ahead of work. I have. The number five third baseman was a Eugenio Suarez, who averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game,

which is lower than you like, mostly due to the plate discipline here for Suarez. And it was a tale of two seasons. The first three months, he hit 196 with six home runs and a 591 OPS. He was unusable for fantasy. He actually got dropped in my 15 team Tout Wars League. Think about that. 15 team roto, corner infield spot, third base. I bet you didn't even think about picking him up. I was actually the one who picked him up. That's why I had he gotten hot? Because I remember him getting dropped in a couple of leagues.

And I was just like, nah, man, this is some good. No, it was just a deeper league. And I'm like, oh, he's going to play. So if nothing else, like, whatever, we're just getting at bats. But final three months for Suarez, completely different player. He hit 312 with 24 home runs in 870, 974 OPS, excuse me. He lowered the strikeout rate. He hit the ball hard, 15%.

barrel rate over those final three months. Suarez is now 33 years old and he has a $15 million club option. I assume the debacks will pick it up. You know, Scott, where the numbers just ended overall, the expectation probably shouldn't be much lower than that, but it's like, I don't know. Are you excited to draft Eugenio Suarez heading into next year? I'm more bearish on Suarez than I am on Chapman,

if we're talking about third baseman in their 30s who got back to doing something they hadn't done in years. And Suarez, yeah, we could point to the first half how bad it was, but the previous four years he hit 221. So he had kind of fallen off as a major fantasy contributor was kind of, sort of only those 15-team Roto leagues are the kind of leagues where he was being drafted at all. But now that'll change after the second half he had. And it is good that presumably he'll be staying in Arizona where he found so much. success after two years in Seattle. And there comes a point in the third base rankings where it's just obvious that's

where you need to take Suarez because nobody below that is, has even, has anywhere close to the upside to deliver the numbers he did in the second half. For me, that's 13th in the third base ranking. So just outside the top 12. But you got some multi-eligible guys in there, Jordan Westberg. in particular that will essentially make a Johanio Suarez a starting caliber third baseman in a 12-team league.

It's not somebody you want to reach for, though, I would say. Yeah. The number six third baseman was Raphael Devers finally getting down to him. Injury riddled season for him, unfortunately, 3.2 fantasy points per game. That was fifth best at the position behind Jose Ramirez, Gunner Henderson, Vladimir Guerrero, and Ellie Dealer Cruz. But for, Devers still productive when he played.

He had 272 with 28 home runs, 871 OPS and 138 games. He had shoulder soreness way back in March. Remember he missed like a week of the season early on. Basically just played through this injury all year and still found a way to be productive. So kudos to Raphael Devers. Chris, when healthy,

still one of the best four category contributors in fantasy baseball. Yeah, it's probably more like three and three quarters. like he's not hurtful in batting average. He's pretty good, but it's been 271 to 279, three of the past four years. That 295 in 2022,

that feels like the ceiling for Raphael Devers. And he's awesome. I think you love everything about him except the fact that he doesn't steal bases. I did read a, I think it was Ian Brown of MLB.com, his Red Sox newsletes, newsletter that I'm subscribed to.

He did mention the possibility of Tristan Koss is getting traded and the Red Sox moving Rafael Devers over to first base, one to keep him healthy, two, to improve the overall defense on the infield. If it doesn't happen this off season, that certainly feels inevitable in the long run. And that'd be good for first base. It'd be nice to have a little extra flexibility for him in 2025. if that does happen. But I think hopefully just like playing a little less physically demanding position,

hopefully could help Rafael Devers stay healthy after this season. So I don't know. I think he is what he is and what he is is like, I don't know, a middle class man's Joron Alvarez. I think you could look at the shoulder injury one of two ways for Devers because it really brought down his numbers the final two months of the season. He was actually, at the end of July, he was hitting 302. And then the final two months he at 205 eventually had to shut down.

And it's clear that the shoulder was affecting him because his bat speed that we now can measure really dropped those final two months his arm strength on his throws from third base. It fell off too. That's why the Red Sox ultimately made the decision. decision to to shut him down. So I was playing with shoulder issues all year. They were really crushing him late in here. And it makes you wonder where his numbers would have ended up if they weren't. That's that's the positive way to look at it. The negative way to look at it is it affected him all year and by the end he was not the same player. Yeah. So if all the season isn't enough to

heal devours, uh, that's concerning. I assume it will be the Red Sox are assuming it will be. But it's going to be in the back of my mind heading into spring training, and you'll want to pay close attention to the reporting on Devers if there are signs that that bat speed is slow again. It's like Rafael Devers and Austin Riley both ended up having their seasons cut short, Riley more so than Devers. But Riley's, at least at this point, is much less concerning than Raphael Devers, because he, I think it was a fractured wrist.

It was actually a handmade bone. Hamate. Okay, so he'll have the full off season to recover. He should be totally fine. He missed time early on in the season with a different injury. But again, I don't think that was one that lingered or occurred at all. So that was a weird. Did you guys remember that with Austin Riley? We just didn't go on the IL for like 14 straight days. They just played a man down for two weeks, basically. That was weird. Was that with the hamate bone injury? No, that was a different. I can't a leg injury or something. I was. I can't remember what it was. It was in like May, I think. But it was just weird. But yeah, both Riley and Devers are kind of the mirror image of each other. Riley got off to a bad start, was heating up before his season ended. Devers got off to a great start.

Season ended when the injury became too much. But I'm a little less concerned for Riley than Devers, although I don't know. I think they're basically a coin flip for fantasy in 2025. Yeah, it was an oblique injury for... That's what it was. That's what it was. Yeah. That kept him out for 14 straight days

and they just never put him on the IL. So that was a pretty interesting situation. Devers had a somewhat similar situation with the shoulder where they just like, he just didn't play for like a week. I hear what you're saying, Scott, I think I'm a little bit more glass half full just because of the fact that Devers, it sounds like he played through this injury all year. And he was still mostly himself, you know?

Like... You said glass half full and then Chris took a big... drank out of his glass of water. It's like a fifth full now, so. Yeah. He was trying to empty it for you. Ah, Chad. I was just thirsty.

Fair enough. All right. Well, we are going to skip over Spencer Sear, who is next up on the third base finishers here, but does not have the third base eligibility. You know what? Let's take a break. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll get into 7 through 10 at the position.

Next up is Alex Breggman. We'll do that right. after this. Welcome back in the top six third baseman this past season, Jose Ramirez, jazz Chisholm, Mani Machado, Matt Chapman, Ehio Havanaoswerez, and Raphael Devers. Next up, we have Alex Bregman,

who averaged three fantasy points per game, still very good, but oddly enough, Breggman's walk rate and OBP just took a huge step back this year. He was just much more aggressive at the plate for whatever reason. Maybe it was, you know, the contract year. But he got off to a really slow start.

Still wound up having an Alex Bregman-ish season. Hit 260, 26 home runs, a 768 OPS. I mentioned the OBP way down to 315. That was the lowest it's been since his rookie season. And Scott Bregman is, I think he's kind of fine. I think we know what to expect from him. He's also a free agent. And I think from a fantasy perspective, we would like to see him back in Houston with that short portion left field. Oh yeah, definitely. He's always had ugly stat cast numbers. I would go as far to. say, but he just maximizes his launch angle, his spray angle in a way that allows him to maximize his power in the Crawford box as a Minutemade Park would seem to help with that. I say would

seem to because if you look at Alex Breggman's career home away splits, they're surprisingly even. And so maybe leaving won't actually affect them that much. But it is a variable with the potential to be cataclysmic, potentially, depending where he signs. I mean, I wouldn't feel great if Alex Bregman signed with the Mariners or some team like that. So we'll just have to see. It's a free agency to watch for sure. Ideally, he winds it back with the Astros, the way they're talking. I'm not confident they will.

As for the plate discipline stuff, probably just a fluke. Probably just a fluke for Bregman. I would still view him as a much better head-to-head points asset than categories with that historically great plate discipline and so I'm not really seeing much reason to be concerned about that. It's mostly just where he winds up next year. My expectation is another 260 batting average in 25 homers because of those home away splits,

but you got to guard against the possible downside. And just to add to it, Breggman was a different player pre-2020 and we can speculate as to why that is, but basically starting in 2020, he went from an MVP caliber player every year to what he's been since, which is just a pretty good player. And in that time, since the start of the 2020 season,

he has a 356 Wobah at home and 820 OPS. Away from the Crawford boxes, he has a 335 Wobah, a 772 OPS. So that's not nothing, right? That's 50 points of OPS, about 20. 20 points of Wobah. It's even less than it sounds like because the average hitter in 2022, 2024, was about seven points of Wobah better at home than away.

Hitters tend to hit better at home, all hitters. So he seems to be about 13 points of Wobah more dependent on his home park than your average player. Again, that's not nothing. I think there is a chance that he goes to a particularly bad park and it just really screws him up. Like, I don't know, maybe the Cubs shell out for him. And we see something like what Isok Paredes went through where it just the swing doesn't work there.

I think that's a possibility in a particularly deep left field. Like he's never going to sign with Pittsburgh, but I could see Pittsburgh being a problem. But in an average park, I think Alex Bregman takes a little bit of a step back, but it's probably still batting third or fourth, maybe second, still. still gets good counting stats. I think he should be fine. The number eight third baseman was Michael Garcia. He only averaged 2.5 fantasy points per game. Definitely a better player in Roto or a Categorius format.

But we did speak about Garcia extensively on our second base recap. So you can go back and listen to that if you want to hear our thoughts on him. But the number nine third baseman was Alec Bone, who averaged 2.9 fantasy points per game. Still pretty strong amount in that format. and Bome started out hot, but the fade as the season went on. He hit 280, only 15 home runs, 97 RBI, and a 779 OPS. Chris, in a vacuum, I like the skill set, the fact that he doesn't strike out very much, Alec Bome, he hits the ball hard.

The problem is he doesn't optimize that because he hits a lot of ground balls, he hits a lot of line drives. So another one where it just kind of feels like we know who Alec Bome is. And it's fine. It's like a low-end starter. It's just, you know, I don't think there's much upside here. Yeah, you look up empty batting average in the dictionary, and it's Luis Arias and then Alec Baum is a little bit behind him. That's not how dictionaries work.

That was a bad analogy. Yeah, like you're going to get a good batting average. You're going to get good RBI. That's it. But like, you just have to go in knowing that like everything else about him is substandard. And he's fine, probably better in points than Roto because. 44 doubles last year. That doesn't matter for Roto,

but it does for points league. So he's fine. I don't think at 28, we're going to see a step forward for Alec Bohm. He's gotten a little bit better three years in a row, so maybe it'll happen again. But yeah, I think this is probably who he is.

When I wrote my third base, early third base rankings article, I described Alec Bohm as a B contributor and batting average, B plus and R&R. RBI, C minus in home runs, and D and everything else. Yeah. Which comes out as basically a serviceable starter.

But you could see how he would be an ideal fit in certain roto builds if you're, if you were light on batting average for instance or light on RBI. And didn't need so much power. It's just funny. You took L. A. Dela Cruz early on, right? Like that.

Yeah. Yeah. It's funny the way Boeum season played out. Because remember in April, he was like the only guy who could hit. And he hit, he, he, he had like half of his home runs that month. and then fell off. The number 10 third baseman was Jake Berger, 2.6 fantasy points per game is not the best

and doesn't seem like it's going to get much better due to Berger's lack of plate discipline and obviously the team context. The Marlins just are going to hold back the counting sets quite a bit for him. Took a step back across the board, thanks to a really, really slow start for Jake Berger in the first half at 225 with a 635 OPS

and then in the second half, 279, with a 901 OPS. Scott, a useful bat, could provide 30 home runs, not really much else besides that. You probably want Burger Moore as like a corner infielder than your starting third basement.

Yeah, I would agree. We talked about this when we did the first base version of these podcasts, how his season was a disappointment because a lot of us were thinking he'd pick up where he left off for that, that first that initial half season with the marlins when he cut way down on the strikeouts and approved his batting average and just looked like he was becoming more complete a more complete hitter

but burger regressed to more like his full season 2023 line which is still viable i mean a good power hitter but uh but with some clear flaws that frankly if he wasn't playing for the marlins i'd be worried about his job security but he is playing for the marlins so he's probably secure and he's probably secure and he's probably going to get you, give you close to 30 homers. It works both ways though, right? Because like, I look at it and think like, yeah, and if he was on the diamondbacks, he might be, might have finished as a top five third baseman.

Because that's the biggest, yeah, that's the biggest difference between him and Auhaneos Juarez. Like, they're both going to hit 30 homers. They're both going to hit, I think 250 is kind of probably a best case scenario for either of them. It's just Aeoheniozwarz drove in, what, 111 runs and Jake Burr. drove in 76, and I think that is mostly because of the lineup that they plan. Yeah. I do think there's a chance that Jake Burger could be traded too.

I know they acquired him last year, but, you know, new management in Miami. Like, maybe they just want to rebuild the team in their vision, whatever it might be. So, yeah, I think he's a name to watch. Maybe Jake Burger on the move somewhere this offseason. Again, that was your top 10 third baseman. Just to recap, we had Jose Ramirez. Jazz Chisholm, Mani Machado, Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez, Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Michael Garcia, Alec Boe, and Jake Berger. Let's quickly hit some news and notes, I guess, update on the World Series.

I think when most people listen to this, the Dodgers will already be crowned your World Series champion. I've done this entire podcast as that meme where you pull the mask back and it's just like, yeah, that's basically where I'm at. But it's not looking good for my Yankees. This is the ending of game one just feels like it completely flipped this series on its head. And obviously some questionable coaching decisions there by Aaron Boone. But credit to the Dodgers, man. You know, Freddie Freeman walk off Grand Slam.

You got it done. That was, I was watching it in a bar in Brooklyn. And it was surprisingly an even split between Yankees Dodgers fans at this bar. I would say like 64y Yankees fans. A lot of hold up. covers from those Brooklyn. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Seems very weird.

A lot of Robbins fans. Is that what they used to be called before the Dodgers? Yeah. Anyway, the Yankees fan in the corner. Sorry, I went to the Met this weekend and saw like a behind the scenes of their baseball card collection. It's actually very cool. And someone referenced the Brooklyn Robbins.

So I just wanted to drop that. Guy in the corner, Yankees fan who had been. clearly not having a good time most of the night. As soon as Freddie Freeman hits the ball and it's gone, smashes a glass on the table, storms out, sticks his finger in the Dodgers fan face behind me, curses him out and storms out

as his like very embarrassed friends just like file out single handedly after him. It was an unbelievable moment to witness in person. And I'm glad that Freddie Freeman gave that to me. Yeah. I'm sorry, Frank. My wife and I just sat on the couch for like 30 minutes in silence. I was just perusing Twitter and it was a good night for interactions on Twitter. I guess that's the, you know.

I mean, that was an all time. Like I know people are like, oh, it wasn't Kirk Gibson. And I'm like, okay, fine. It was an all time moment. It was incredible. No, it was. And, you know, credit to the Dodgers too, because Nestor Cortez, who hadn't pitched over a month, comes in biggest spot in his life,

in his pitching career, in his professional career, this is the biggest spot. Choa Otani and Freeman both swung at the first pitch. Like credit to them, they were super aggressive. They're like, this guy isn't pitched,

he's going to groove a fastball, boom, let's do it. And obviously they made the most of that. Freddie Freeman is also just absurdly locked in. He, I think, he's homered in each game of the World Series,

and he's homered in five straight World Series games going back to 2021. Yeah, matching the record and the homer today off Clark Schmidt. I saw it was the first up and in cutter that he's ever homered off of. Like something he's seen like 300 of them. And that was the first time he's ever homered on a cutter up and in. I think that was the stat I saw.

So he's absurdly locked in and I'm happy to see it for him. Yep. It was a tough season for him. Sticking with the Dodgers for a second here, Shoe Yotani suffered a left shoulder subluxation in game two, but he was back in the lineup for game three. I don't know, at like 25%? He did not look healthy.

I was like wearing a sling before the game. Someone texted me asking, does this affect his fantasy value for next year? And I hadn't really thought about it. I don't know. It might. I don't know. It might. This is, I was surprised he was back for game three.

I think we all were. surprised they had to pop the shoulder back in place to do the testing and the testing revealed no additional structural damage and so it was a pain tolerance issue there but when when somebody dislocates their shoulder even partially like that it has it's it's more likely to get relit dislocated um i i was reading that because it's it's it's it's it's obviously not a throwing arm left arm. It is his primary arm for hitting, like where all the strength comes from, but it would actually be worse if it was his bottom hand for messing up that shoulder.

So the Dodgers seem hopeful that there's not going to be a recurrence of this to the extent they can predict these things. But they may look into surgery in the offseason. And yeah, that would definitely change our approach to Otani heading into next year. Also, there's a chance that Dave Roberts said he's not going to run again this world there's a chance he runs less next year to avoid a shoulder injury. And just in general, because he's pitching. I think one thing we've seen is that Otani tends to run more when he's not pitching.

We certainly saw that early in his career when he got hurt. Yeah. No, that's 100%. I think the expectation, even before this injury, was that Otani would run less now that he's going to be starting again next year. And now with this injury, maybe it's even less than that. whatever you thought it was going to come down to, you know, 30 to 40 seals. Maybe it's like 20 to 30.

I don't know. Yeah. I mean, I'm going to, I can't see myself, well, could I drop them to third? I think I'll be top three, but it's, it's not going to be an obvious number one unless, I don't know what it would take. I mean, if you're to relieve people's concerns. Well, if you're in a league where the pitching stats count. Yeah. In addition to the head.

And it could be both. Yeah. Okay. Rare league. daily lakes, I guess. Last point I'd like to bring up on the Dodgers. Walker Bueller, his last two starts, one in the World Series against the Yankees, one in the NLCS against the Mets, have looked much better, much more movement on his pitches.

You see the horizontal vertical movement way up, according to the stat cast, the spin rates up on Walker Bueller's pitches as well. So not saying his back, but he might have figured something out here that gives us a little bit of a tiny bit of confidence heading into 2025. Yeah, I think he's made himself a decent amount of money. over just his last like 10 innings just because he's gone from maybe someone gives him a Jack Flaherty contract to yeah I could see someone giving him multiple years now I'm not sure I would want to do that but it's the first signs of life we've seen from him in two plus years so and it's it's not just the top line numbers for Bueller in that final NLCS start he got 18 swinging strikes six on the sweeper which had an extra 4 inches of horizontal movement. His sweeper in Game 3 of the World Series

had an extra 6 inches of horizontal movement. He didn't throw it as much, but it's, and all of his pitches, they're moving a lot more. So Bueller definitely going to have to re-evaluate him, not just because he had a couple good playoff starts, but because all the underlying data is, it just looks vastly different.

And last non-world series news item, Chris, your Miami Marlins apparently are deciding between Guardians Bench coach Craig Albernaz and Rangers associate manager Will Venable as their manager. The venerable Will Venable. Could not even begin to form an opinion about either of those. Padres legend Will Venable. That's that's the extent of my knowledge of these guys.

All right. Let's wrap up with some early 2025 third base rankings. We're going to compare and contrast Scott and Chris. and Scott's top six, Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Jazz Chisholm, and Jordan Westberg, who has both second and third base eligibility. Chris is top six, Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Jazz Chisholm.

And the only difference here, Royce Lewis, as your number six, third base. As I said earlier, there is a second difference because I'm moving Chisholm ahead of Machado. Okay. But I'm surprised to find out Chris has Machado ahead of Chisholm because I assumed I was going to be the oddball who had Machado ahead of Chisholm. I think it's super close.

And if you would like me to put Jash Chisholm ahead, I could certainly do that. I may end up there, yeah. Yeah, I mean, you've been touting him more than I have. So I'm just, I don't know, maybe I'm wrong in how people are going to draft Machado. I don't know. I want a lot of Machado next year. So I don't want to rank up too low. But I don't want to rank up too high either.

I think the postseason and just the general injury scleries will probably keep people off Chisholm. Like you said you had him 29th. I think he's probably a third rounder, but 29 somehow feels too high, even though there are only seven spots in the third round where you can move him out. I worried I'm low on every single pitcher in my top 300. Okay. That might. I mean, I'm trying to be intentionally, but I may be taking it a bit too far, you know. 50 minutes in, we have not talked about

Austin Riley, who got up to a really slow start. We did. We started to pick things up. We kind of mentioned his name, but we haven't talked about it in depth, I guess. And then his season ended with a fractured right hand, fracture handmade bone, as you mentioned, Scott. But 256 with 19 home runs, 783 OPS in 110 games for Austin Riley. He underperformed his expected stats by quite a bit.

But he hit the ball harder than ever before, 96th percentile, average X velocity. the barrel rate was in the 94th percentile. So Scott, I have no reason to believe that we won't get the Austin Riley bounce back. Yeah, I don't either. I have no reason either. His final 57 games to use an arbitrary cutoff, 292 batting average 942 OPS. It's kind of like Julio Rodriguez, where you've come to expect a slow start from Austin Riley,

but then he corrects it. He's so strong in the middle and torn. the end of the season that the numbers all correct and sort of like Julio Rodriguez, we got an injury at the worst possible time that prevented those injuries from correct, those numbers from correcting all the way. And I don't think we should change our evaluation of Riley much based on that. If you didn't know anything about the top level numbers and you just saw the skill set numbers, you would think Austin Riley had the same exact season four years in a row, basically.

Like there is nothing in the underlying numbers last year. year to suggest that Austin Riley was a worse hitter. I have, I honestly, you mentioned we haven't talked about him 50 minutes into the show. I feel like we've talked about him too much. Like, obviously not because I think people will be concerned about him when they look at the numbers, but I think there is nothing in the skill set to be concerned about with Austin Riley at all. Chris, talk to me about Royce Lewis, who you have inside your top six at the position. And, look, he continues to show flashes, but this past season, more injuries. He was limited to 82 games, dealt with a strained right quad and then a strained right

adductor. And then he was really bad in the second half. His quality of contact took a huge step back. So probably playing through injury. Chris, who is Royce Lewis? Royce Lewis is a 25-year-old third baseman for the Minnesota Twins, who has played 152 games in his major league career with 33 homers, a 268 batting average, an 824 OPS. And I think that's probably just what he is. I think he is probably not the best player in baseball,

like he has looked like for stretches when he's been healthy before the most recent stretch. I don't think he's nearly as bad as he performed in the second half of the 2024 season. I think it's really unfortunate that the worst stretch of Royce Lewis's career has come alongside the only time he's managed to stay healthy for more than a month, but I don't think it's anything more than unfortunate. Like, I,

I don't know. I think there's upside to grow and be a true impact bat, and I think an Austin Riley like outcome is well within the realm of possibility. The quality of contact was not there last year. And I think that's enough to move him down several spots in the rankings,

but. Yeah. I still remain pretty optimistic about Royce Lewis moving forward. Yeah, I mean, you're definitely more optimistic than me. I have him ninth, as we'll soon reveal, while you have him sixth. And, I mean, for me, it's as simple as we finally got a healthy stretch from him, and it was bad. It was bad. We were evaluating him on these small samples where he looked like the best player in the world.

And first extended run looked far from the best player in the world. And I think there's still enough upside there to rank of ninth, obviously. But I even so now there is there is, now there is risk for Royce Lewis apart from injury. There's performance risk. And the injury risk is so much to begin with. Scott's 7 through 12 in the third base rankings, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Royce Lewis, Jr. Camerro, Alec Boehm and Mark Vientos. and Chris is 7 through 12, Jordan Westberg, Alex Bregman, Mark Vientos, Alec Bome, A. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. Erenairo.

Did someone has Chapman at 8? Chris does not have Chapman, but Scott, someone that you really do like quite a bit, is Junior Camerro. You have him ranked 10th at the position. Did someone say Caminero? Can you name the Ray who hit that drive over the fence that makes 30? Comanero Cominero Well, he's kind of slow

Unlike Jackson Merrill, but his lightning quick as compared to Will Ferrell Commonero O Comanero Swings not long, zones not wide, a few practice hacks make pictures want to hide, Comanero

Cominero Finally beating out all the utility swords Service time manipulation is matter for the cords. Comanero. Come, arrow. Every ball off his bat's like a laser hot beam. He's a pillow mash, bump and crashline driving machine.

Comonero. Comeanor. Ha! Cominero! Oh, Cominero. Masterpiece. Incredible. Masterpiece.

Yeah, so I, you know, ever since I heard the name Commonero I kind of sang parts of that song in my head I made up the verses just for that recording but like the Common Arrow parts I didn't think to like actually incorporate it into content because I thought a random one minute song from the Simpsons episode

that aired 25 years ago that that's kind of a deep cut I'm not sure anyone else would have gotten it but then we started to get we had an email about it for like a team name tuesday and somebody asked me on Twitter if I'd record a song for it and I thought you know what I think I'm going to and that's how it came out so it's amazing if you haven't yeah if you haven't seen that simpsons episode I can't I can't remember the name of it the last temptation of crust that's it yeah yeah season I just I'm I think I'm up to season 14 on my watch.

So I did watch it a few weeks ago. There you go. So Chris gets the reference he might have not have gotten before. For those listening, you obviously heard the audio. For those watching on YouTube, I tried to come up with something creative for like the video side of things. I just took the Canyonero picture and I put Junior Camerro's face in there. I put Scott's face in there. You should have had them driving the car together.

You know what? If I had more time and had more skill at doing that, I would have tried to do it. Ultimately, yes, it's fun. Good stuff. Yeah. I spent way too much time recording that song. So I don't, I don't. I thought about it.

You have like periods throughout your day where nobody's home, right? Because this is the thing I've struggled with when I've done songs for the show is I need to like, hey, honey, when's your next doctor's appointment? When are you leaving the apartment for several hours? so I can, so I don't embarrass myself singing while my wife is home. Yeah, no, this was, uh, normally, normally when nobody's home, I'm asleep, but there was one particular opportunity I found to record that. And yeah, you know, the, the recording of the song isn't actually the part that takes all

the time, though. I was, I was telling you guys beforehand, it's not like there's a, a karaoke version of Canyon Arrow out there. So it was, it was, it was kind of. of a task getting Hank Williams voice. Because Audacity does have like a vocal remover option, but it left like this echo that wasn't even in line with the melody. So it just sounded like total trash when I was recording different lyrics over it.

So I had to really Google and I found like some British site. I was risking a virus is what I'm saying to record this song. So that's how important it was to me. If you're willing to risk a virus for it, that's how you know it matters. I do appreciate that. Yeah. I hope everybody. I hope we play it throughout the year.

Yeah, yeah. We'll make, I don't know, whichever one of the Caminero, you know, the times you say his name, whichever one you want, we'll make that a drop. So whenever he is a big game, we can kind of work that in. But why don't you talk to me about him? You have him ranked as a top and third baseman. That means you must like him. I do. I do.

I don't know what take to give, really. That isn't obvious. He was in the running for number one overall prospect coming into this year. And he got a little bit of exposure in 2023. We waited, waited for the raids to call him up. It finally happened over the final couple months. And he was solid. He was solid.

He did hit the ball as hard as he did in the minors. The exit velocity is very impressive, as I mentioned in the song. And while the top line numbers don't like blow. you away. You got to remember that's the norm for rookie hitters now. The first couple months, they're going to be kind of sluggish, but then they tend to break through in that third month,

as we saw from both of the Jackson's and who else. A few others this year. Going back a few years, Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, all of them. And so I think Junior Cominero, because he's already gotten that time in the majors, where he's

underwhelmed, but but showed that impressive skill set, I think that time in the majors will actually work against him on draft day and it'll probably go outside the top 100. I even rank him outside the top 120, even as my 10th third basement. So I think you're going to get, I think you're going to get that extreme top prospect upside

without paying the premium for it because of the time Common Arrow's already been up. Maybe the song will change that, I mean, tight machine. I could talk myself into moving. him as high as 10th. And maybe even ninth. Like, I,

probably an oversight. We haven't talked about Mark Vientas. He's the last name to talk about. So go for it, Chris. Tough one because he's gone from being, from having basically unplayable contact skills to good enough if he's a legitimate

plus plus power threat. And this season, for the most part, over the final three months or so, he was. He made it work for him. And like, it's not, like, he has a 75th percentile's own contact rate. That's actually slightly better than Raphael Devers. That's another guy who swings and misses a ton, is a very aggressive hitter. Like, you can make that work. Rafael Devers is a lofty goal to aim for.

and he's a pretty freakish power hitter in a way that I don't know if Mark Vientos is yet. So I think if the gains that Mark Vientos showed this year are legitimate and he sustains them, I think he can be a solid starting fantasy option. I think we are dropping Mark Vientos by the middle of May is a live possibility for 2025. So I think he is maybe the player here with the widest range of outcomes, at least among the ones we've talked about. And I'm also not sure he has like true elite upside in that range of outcomes. So I don't know,

it's funny that I'm higher on Viantos in my rankings than Scott is. But I may end up ranking Viantos in the overall. lower than Scott does. I'm not 100% that's going to work out yet. The pitchers. The pitchers are going to change everything. I think I'm just like a little more worried about third base

outside of the top five. Yeah. I don't know. I don't quite know where I'm landing on Mark Viantos. I think he's probably fine. But it's really easy to see how things go really wrong for him. Yeah, it's the strikeout rate

that spooks. me, I guess, for Mark Viantos, because what earned him the job was he cut way down on the strikeout rate. May and June, it was around 22, 23%. But then the final three months, second half, well, the second half, let's say. Mark Viantos had 33.7% strikeout rate, which is more in line with what I expected from the beginning, but it's hard to succeed with that kind of strikeout rate. He still managed to put up good numbers in the second half. The batting average was much lower, but 247 you can tolerate from a guy with good power. Hit 15 home runs in the second half, had a big postseason.

So maybe he's fine with that strike at rate, but it does seem like there's bottom out potential here for Mark Viantos that I'm guarding against. And I would rather gamble on Junior Commonero if there's going to be a gamble. I would rather take Matt Chapman for sure, have him eighth. And Chris, I guess you have him 13th. Didn't it make the cut here? Yeah.

Yeah. That was weird, Scott. You said the name, Junior, what was that last name? Cominero. Yes. Cominero. And last point on Viantos, you mentioned the postseason, not that we should let postseason numbers affect,

you know, how we view a player the following season, but I could maybe see some people being influenced by Vianzoz had a huge postseason, 327 with five home runs and a 998 OPS, Only a 13-game sample, but obviously he kind of looked like a budding star before our eyes. So we'll see if he can carry that over here into 2025. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Thursday, Halloween. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.