Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 Buy or Sell, Sleeper Switch & Mets-Braves Debacle! (9/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: September 26, 2024

Wyatt Langford is finishing strong (3:02). ... What happened with Zac Gallen this year (8:12)? ... Erick Fedde had an awesome start in Coors Field (13:35). ... News (18:23): The Mets-Braves games were postponed on Wednesday and Thursday. ... Let's take a peek into the 2025 crystal ball with some buy or sell questions (35:14). ... Will Parker Meadows and DJ Herz be sleepers next year (44:48)? ... What went wrong with Kevin Gausman this year (55:40)? ... These three hitters have had big second halves (56:53). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:01:19). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, September 26th. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, let's break out the 2025 crystal ball.

Once again for a little buyer's sell, the sleepometer. We were talking beforehand. I was trying to figure out. Sleeperometer. Sleeperometer, excitometer. I went with sleepometer. It feels like it puts sleeper and meter together. I don't know.

I don't know. Like sleepometer versus excitometer. That almost sounds like they're different things. Basically. what it's going to be is I have a list of players. Do any of them have sleeper appeal for 2025? Yeah, it feels more like a binary. You know, maybe it's the sleeper switch.

And it's either on or off. All right. We're going with the sleeper switch on today's show. What went wrong for these two pitchers this season? Zach Gallen and Kevin Gosman and much more. Go crazy, folks. Go crazy. All right, players of the night, Scott, we will start with you.

Going to go with Wyatt Langford. Wyatt has not been so quiet here in September. He had a sock and a shoe on Wednesday. That was his 14th home run of the season, 17th steel. And for the month of September now, Wyatt Langford is batting 306 with six homers and five steals. What if he was doing this all along? I did say at the time Dylan Cruz was called up that even

though, Dylan, even though Wyatt Langford had, uh, had disappointed us up to that point, I thought it was basically a coin flip, which of those two rookie outfielders would perform better the rest of the way. And it turns out it's been Wyatt Langford, who's performed much, much better of the two, the rest of the way. And I think is with the strong finish is, uh, if we were to, to apply the sleeper switch to him, I, I think it would definitely be on for next year.

And part of the reason why I thought it was a coin flip, whether Langford or Cruz would perform better, is because I feel like the data has been pretty strong for Langford this whole time. He's been hitting the ball reasonably hard all along. He's been making contact at a reasonably high rate. He's been putting the ball in the air at a reasonable clip. And he's been pulling it well enough that you feel like that should all translate to a good home run total. So I don't really

I don't really know why he's fallen short of expectations this year but I think the I think the underlying data is still very strong and now that we're seeing him with almost a year of almost a full season of experience under his belt, we're seeing him convert that data into actual production. I think he's like I said, renewing his appeal for now. next year. I do think some of the batted ball stuff under the hood has been a little bit underwhelming for Langford this year. He has done a good job putting the ball in the air and pulling it, but 89.6 average exit velocity, 9.2% barrel rate, you know, both of those numbers could be better.

They could be better, but they're fine. Like we see very productive players. That's like 50th, 60th percentile. Yeah. It's if you don't have any other red flags in your hitting profile, that that's plenty good enough. And I imagine it could get higher. There's nothing in Langford's 2024 production that suggests, okay, this is a budding superstar. But there's nothing in his production that suggests he isn't a major leaguer, certainly.

And. Oh, yeah. When you're talking about a 22-year-old who had played, what, 47 games or whatever it was in the miners before getting called up, I think the fact that there's not really anything negative to point to in his profile probably bodes pretty well because he's a really good athlete, he's big. I think the quality of contact is more likely to improve than not. and like the plate discipline is quite good. He doesn't chase very much at all. The plate discipline is fantastic. He is an elite athlete.

This is a 225 pound outfielder who's in the 98th percentile in sprint speed. Like that the speed score hasn't really made it to Major League Baseball, but it's a big deal in football where like if you run a 4-4 but you're 220 pounds, it's a lot better than running it at 100. 70 pounds kind of thing. And I think that speaks to the kind of athlete Wyatt Langford is. And the lack of serious holes in his game makes me think that a big step forward is likely a year two.

Yeah, I don't want to make it sound like the exit velocity is an issue, though. Like if he was having a monstrous season, I wouldn't look at his exit velocity readings and say, oh, but here's why it won't continue because they're only 60th percentile. You know, like it's, it's, you can be really, really productive with as hard as Dylan Cruz is already hitting the ball.

Wyatt Langford. But yeah, as of hard as why Langford's already hitting the ball. But, but, but yeah, I mean, I think it could get better. This was his first year out of college. And, uh, and like I said, he's, he's showing in September, uh, what a, what a little bit of experience against Major League. pitching can, uh, can, can add up to. And the quality of contact in September has jumped up tremendously for what it's worth. 91.8 average exit velocity, 14% barrel rate in September for

Wyatt Langford. We'll bring him up again a little bit later on when we do our buy or sell for next season. Chris, over to you, player of the night. And I went with Zach Allen, who had had a weird season. I think it's fair to say. Remember last year. year. He threw, what, 243 innings across the regular season and postseason. And I think it's fair to say some of that caught up to him this year. His strikeout rate lowest it's been ever in a major league season. His walk rate highest, it's been since 2021. But finishing the season strong, seven or more strikeouts and six of his final seven starts, 11 strikeouts over six innings in this one. he was someone who was probably drafted as like an SP1 last year.

And I don't think we're going to do that this year. You know, like we have two years in a row of the peripherals not being great. We have two years in a row of sort of high-ish ERAs, especially this year for a guy who's an ostensible ace. And I just, I think there's enough evidence that Zach Allen probably isn't that dude that he's more of an Aaron Nola type. but I think the fact that he's finishing the season strong, the fact that while he did have a couple of injury scares,

nothing was like, oh, his arm's about to fall off. I think you feel pretty good about Zach Allen as a top 24 starter for 2025, just not a top 12 one. I got a bad feeling about Zach Gallen. You think his arms about to fall off. I kind of feel like his arms. That was one of my bold predictions that I came out with a couple weeks ago.

That would be really bold if his arm fell off. It's kind of a ghoulish, bold prediction, but maybe I'm just kind of a ghoul. I don't know. I see a lot of the everything seems kind of off for this guy, and I don't understand why. I see a lot of those sort of indicators that often precede a major arm issue. And considering he has ligament damage, elbow ligament damage, damage in his past that was never resolved surgically. I think I'm going to be fading them pretty hard.

Even as good as this start was against the Giants since returning from the IL 15 starts ago, so basically half a season. Zach Gallen has a 427 ERA, a 141 whip 9.5K per 9.5K per 9.9. That's not bad, but 10% swinging strike rate, 62% strike rate. Uh, it's, it's all pretty bad. And, um, really you're just, if you, if you are drafting them, even as a top, what did you say, top 24? 24ish, yeah. I mean, I might have to rank them that high just because of track record, but I, I am really hoping somebody jumps up and takes him sooner than that.

I will just say, like, he did have the sprained right elbow in 2021. He missed a month. he's had no arm issues since then. But he didn't look right after coming back from that. Yeah, I guess 2021 was not a great season for him, 430. But then he goes out and finishes top three in Siong in 2022, 2022, 23. Was he top three in Sanyang as well?

I know he was like among the league leaders in ERA in 2022. Yeah. Hasn't like the only time he's missed for injury since then was when he hurt his hamstring. both in 2021 and in 2024. So he's had no upper body issues at all. But I don't. We've had guys pitch whole careers with damaged elbow look at us. And I don't disagree with you that there are a lot of red flags.

Like like I said, the XERA, the peripherals are all not nearly as good as his reputation. And they weren't last year. And so maybe we just saw the regression already this season. And Zach Allen just isn't that kind of guy anymore. But there are so many Aeronola comps for Zach Allen. Remember, Aaronola was another guy who had a pretty scary, this is, I mean, almost a decade ago now, but a pretty scary elbow issue of his own early on in his career,

had some ups and downs, had some frustratingly inconsistent strikeout numbers early on as well. But he's been like the model of health among starting pitchers over the past like five or six seasons. So I don't disagree with you that there are red flags. And I don't think I'm particularly likely to draft Zach Allen in 2025. But I don't think he's like an active fade for me. It just might be like the right situation where he falls to an SP3 range.

This is now three days in a row where I am bringing up the term, uninspiring SP2. The other days I did it for Aeronola. I did it for Logan Webb. How do you guys foresee ranking Nola, Webb, and Gowan for next season? Like the order? Yeah. Nola Webb, Gowan.

I think that's probably okay. Webb versus Gowan is the one I have the least confidence in. I could see going Gowlin ahead because of the strikeout upside, but that seems fine, yeah. All right. Player of the night for me is going to be Eric Fetty, who was nasty in Coresfield against the Rockies. Seven innings, one run, 10 strikeouts. He had 14 whiffs on 87. pitches. He threw more cutters in the start, but really had everything working. He had three plus

whiffs on four different pitches, the cutter, the sinker, the sweeper, and the change up. When it's all said and done, Eric Fetty has had a very strong first season back from Korea. I know Scott way back in the offseason. He was either one of the players you loved or the wandering eye that you had on Valentine's Day. And he's going to, I don't think he's making another start. 3.30, ERA 116 whip the underlying numbers don't buy that but still it it was a successful return to the majors for eric fitty technically though he had an eight and nine records so how useful wasn't in fantasy and you look at the game log it's a lot of five and a third inning starts with less than a strikeout per i'm just not sure it was that useful even if the era and whip were strong uh and this was this was like his only good

start with the Cardinals, right? It was one of three starts where he went six innings out of out of 10 with the Cardinals. So seven of his 10 starts were less than six innings. And gosh, he went two and five with the Cardinals. Yeah, I don't know. I'm not, I'm not going to be as high on Fetty heading into next year as I was this year. Yeah, I think he's fine, right? Like I think in the later rounds of a roto league if you need a stabilizer for your rotation he'll be there

that's not nothing it's just not much yeah like I prefer James and Tyone who's I they feel similar to me yeah yeah I yeah not that I'm crazy excited about James and Tyone but that's the range of the rankings we're talking about because I don't think anybody's excited about

Jameson Tyone yeah Fetty is part of the Sleeper Switch segment for next season do you you guys consider someone like Fetty a sleeper for next year? No, because I just switched it off. I think sleeper implies some level of upside that I just don't think is there. Like, he's putting me to sleep. None of his pitches had good whiff rates.

His change up with rate was like 15% or something, which is just crazy low. So I think more or less he's just a guy. All right. Some playoff updates for the American League wildcard, the Mariners, Tigers, Royals, twins, all won here on Wednesday. The Tigers and Royals are currently in. The twins are two games out, and the Mariners are two and a half.

For the NL Wild Card, the D-Backs won. The Mets and Braves did not play. More on that after the break. The Mets and D-Backs remain one game ahead of the Atlanta Braves. Thanks to everybody for sending in their championship teams, their championship tweets, Xs, whatever we're calling that. If we helped you win this season, feel free to let us know with a five-star rating

and review on Apple or Spotify, even if we didn't help you win. If you just enjoy the podcast, feel free to drop us a review. Much appreciated. Let's take our first break. When we return, we'll hit the news and notes, talk about this Mets and Braves debacle.

We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in News and Notes. Sure seems like MLB fumbled this Mets and Brave situation. Both Wednesday and Thursday's games were postponed due to Hurricane Helene. Hope everybody stays safe. What happens now? They're going to play a double header

on Monday. Maybe. What's up? Maybe. Maybe. If those games matter. They have playoff implications, which they very likely will,

but there's a slim chance they won't. Yeah. So they're supposed to play that on Monday, and that's a day after the regular season was supposed to end. The playoffs start the very next day on Tuesday. So this is far from an ideal situation. If either the Mets are break, if they had to play both of those games,

then whoever, wins and winds up in the playoffs is going to have to travel the very next day to go play somebody else in the wild card round. So it's just not a great situation all around here. And they knew this weather was coming. So it kind of feels like precautions or change of plans could have been made. They both had an off day on Monday. They could have played a doubleheader on Tuesday, maybe a day game here on Wednesday. None of those things happened. You know what it is. It sounds like the Braves are we're pushing back against rescheduling these games. and I think I know why. I think I figured it out. They took to heart the idea that they had too much rest last year. And now they want to make sure that they have zero days off. And they had too much rust last year. That's why they lost.

Now they're going to have no rest. They're going to win the whole thing. No sleep. That's, I think we figured it out. Yeah. Yeah. No, it does, based on the little bits of the story, I've gathered here and there, it does seem like the, there was some talk of rescheduling

ahead of time and the Braves were the ones who balked at it. So I guess if you want to point fingers, you can point it at them. On a competitive level, I think they're the most disadvantaged by this because they had Chris Sale and Max Fried lined up against the Mets and now they got to play a double header with probably neither of those guys participating in it. So I don't know. It's a mess, though. It's a mess. Yeah. And it kind of feels like the fans were robbed just of, you know, having these two dramatic games throughout the week and everyone's just kind of sitting down and paying attention to what's happening, just in the playoff picture throughout this week. But also, if you're just a fan of chaos, like if it does come down to those two games, just like

on a Monday, all lies on you. I mean, it doesn't get much more chaos. than that. So we shall see what happens with the Mets and Braves this weekend and heading into Monday. Will these games count on CBS for fantasy? That is a question we are getting a lot of right now. And to that, Scott, we will say blank. Well, I think if you, what are those special leagues called, Chris? I'm blanking on the name right now. Like the prize leagues or whatever? The prize leagues. Yeah, I think the prize leagues have a set in date. That's not going to allow them to be included. If you use the commissioner product, though, which is really what we cater to,

I haven't gotten a confirmation what the default setting is yet, but in commissioner leagues, you know, you're the, you have a commissioner who can, who ultimately makes the decision, regardless of what CBS decides. And as a commissioner, I would choose to include them because they're regular season games. And particularly if your league is counting the final week of the season, like you've taken it up to this point. But it probably means you're a stickler for including every regular season game. I will say no roster moves.

Yeah. No lineup changes, no roster moves for that Monday. Agreed. Francisco Lindor was set to return to the Mets lineup a Wednesday, but obviously that game was postponed. Yordon Alvarez will remain in Houston to work with the training staff and will miss this weekend against the Guardians. Alvarez is dealing with a sprained right knee and trying to get right before the postseason. Grayson Rodriguez has been shut down and won't pitch again this season. He's on the aisle with a latch train.

He ends his year with a 386 ERA, a 124 whip, 130 strikeouts, over 116 and two-thirds innings. Obviously, with the lack of innings, it's a letdown season. Even with just the ratios, I mean, we're still waiting to see that top prospect caliber elite Grayson Rodriguez season yet. It's still very early in his career and it could come. We haven't really seen it yet. Yeah, and I'm not sure why. Like, it just kind of feels like everything about him should be a little better.

And it's one of those ones where it's like, you look at the whiff rates for all his pitches and they're all pretty good. The walk rate is pretty good, but not elite. Strikeout rate is pretty good, but not. It's just like, it feels like he's not very far from. being a really, really good major league pitcher. But it's like the, he's like the Wyatt Langford of pitchers. But it's also less clear what the things he needs to improve on are.

Yeah. You know, like it kind of feels like not, not like a master of all, or jack of all trades master of none kind of situation with Grace and Rodriguez. Where it's like he's just, he's a, an across the board B student.

It just like. Feels like there's a slight tweak there. Chris, like a pitch mix or a delivery thing. Because the 13.6% swinging strike rate. I mean, that is an elite mark. And, you know, look, 10K per 9 is great. But based on that swinging strike rate, I mean, he might be able to lead baseball and strikeouts, right?

Like he has that kind of potential based on that number. So weird thing gets hit hard. Yeah. And that seems like maybe a pitch selection thing that he could shore up. Just the sorts of adjustments that come. come with experience that, you know, we do see, we do see it take a few years to all come together sometimes for, for players, even ones who were prospects as high end as Grace and Rodriguez. And so that may just be happening in this case.

He's got to be an interesting one to rank because sitting here now, I'm anticipating Frank's question, Zach Allen or Grayson Rodriguez. Exactly what was coming next. I don't know what I want to say. I think I would go with Galen. Sorry, Grayson. Yeah, okay. Because as somebody who was down on Gallen,

I was thinking of going the other way there. So I'll have to think about that more. I just think the skill set stronger with Grayson. Yeah, it's just a question of how much are you going to get from him? Because now two of the last three years have been dramatically injury shortened for the same reason. Right. Like that doesn't, that's like, who was the last pitcher to have their career ruined by a lat injury? You know, like, it's just, it's not like, the Leverino, I think had a Latt injury.

Yeah, I like, Noah Cindergarde had a season that was ruined by a lad injury, but like, I feel like Carlos, Martinez had a, like, his, I feel like his career kind of got derailed by it too. Okay. But maybe like sometimes. Shane Bieber wasn't his a Latt? Didn't that begin the, the lat kind of, he was bouncing back this year. Yeah. Yeah.

Kind of connects, like, it's close to the shoulder, too, so I don't. I don't know. Yeah. I'm not really worried about Grayson Rodriguez bouncing back. It didn't sound like this was a terrible lad injury, and he'd been through it once before and came back fine. It's just, is he able to hold up over a full season? We haven't really seen that yet. Yeah, the recurring nature of it.

Unless my bold prediction comes true for Galen, we would kind of expect him to hold up for a full season. That's fair. Nestor Cortez was scratched from his start Wednesday and placed on the IL with a left elbow flexor strain. Cortez said he's hopeful to return if the Yankees make a deep postseason run and Marcus Stroman started in his place was quite bad against the Orioles.

Matt Walner was placed in the aisle with a left oblique strain. The twins had Willie Castro, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnick in the outfield with Edouard Julian at DH. The Guardians activated Stephen Kwan from the aisle. He was in the lineup batting leadoff and returned with a banged,

two for four with his 14th home run. Sayas Suzuki was not in the lineup due to a sprained ankle that he suffered on Tuesday. Ronaldo Lopez said he threw a bullpen on Tuesday at about 80% intensity and feels ready to return from the IL. Not yet clear if the Braves

will indeed activate him. Bobichette underwent surgery Wednesday to have a pin inserted into his fractured right middle finger. He's expected to be fully ready for spring training. Here's a name Shane McClanhan. Money.

Here we go. Money talks. Here comes the money. Shane O'Mack touched 94, 95 miles per hour in a 16-pitch live batting practice on Wednesday. He's expected to be ready for spring training next year. It is, however, his second Tommy John surgery, which, as somebody who drafted Walker Bueller in a few leagues this year, it's a little scary. Yeah, no, I had Walker Bueller in several leagues.

And look, McClanahan was better. at his best than Walker Bueller. Walker Bueller was really good. Walker Bueller was really good, but I think McClanahan last year was better than we've seen from Walker Bueller. Yeah, I don't know. 40 to 50 range at starting pitcher probably feels right.

Sandy or San Diego Max? That's exactly what I was about to ask because for tomorrow's newsletter, I just wrote a three that I buy to bounce back and three that I don't buy to bounce back in 2025. And Sandy Alcantra is kind of cheating because he wasn't, he didn't pitch in 2024. So like he's bouncing back from an injury. But I feel pretty confident in Sandy Alcantra.

Like I think I'm going to rank him as like a top 30 pitcher, maybe top 24. Right. He was really good in the second half of last of 2023 after, you know, a bad first half. He had a 320 ERA in the second half before the injury. So I mostly just think it was like a bad half season. And I'm pretty confident. First Tommy John surgery, I think he's going to bounce back.

I think I'm going to rank him ahead of Shane McClain. By like 20 spots, it sounds like a lot of, I have a, this is the problem is like, I think we've mentioned about 79 pitchers in the past 48 hours as potential top 30 starting pitchers for 2024 just because like, that's like,

well, he's not an ace. but he doesn't suck. So yeah, he might be top 30. I don't know. I have not even begun the process of ranking starting pitcher. So I truly don't know. It's never fun. It's never fun.

No. At least I don't have to worry about eligibility for the most part, starting pitcher. Splitting hairs. That's tripping me up everywhere else. Yeah. I mean, last week I said McClan over Alcantra, I'll admit I wasn't thinking about the second Tommy John. at the time.

But without Alcantra, the concerns for me is he's going to be rejoining one of the worst teams in baseball. And he's not a strikeout pitcher. So probably no help in wins, probably no help or little help in strikeouts. Yeah. And so he's really got to nail it with the ERA and whip. And that's going to be a tough ask. Yeah.

That's fair. I think I'm going to rank Sandy ahead. of Shane McClanahan, but it might be close. I don't, yeah, I don't know if Sandy's going to be top 30. Maybe he's like top 40-ish or something like that, but yeah, all offseason, I guess, to figure that out. Dalton Varshow, who just had right shoulder surgery, is expected to be a close to a full participant for spring training next year.

The Cubs were called one of their top prospects, Kevin Alcansara, 22 years old, huge dude at 6'5. This season in the minors at 278, with 14 home runs, 14 steals, a 7. 781 OPS. I actually saw him in the Arizona Fall League last year. He looks even bigger in person. Some loud exit velocis is just like the crack of the bat sounded a little bit different from him than other guys. He's loaded with tools, but Scott, we haven't really seen that play out in like big minor league production yet for Kevin Alcansaro. Yeah, not yet. And maybe not ever, but it's it's a profile that prospect towns like to bet on. He's generally

ranked higher than his production would suggest. And, you know, that was kind of true for O'Neill Cruz once upon a time. And then the production started to be there too. And I feel like it's a similar build, similar athleticism here for Kevin Alcantra. We have seen him in the majors before. So there's that. Actually, we haven't. Never mind.

I was thinking of the other guy. Sorry, we haven't seen Kevin Alcantra on the majors. But yeah, it's an interesting profile. I just think it's kind of a sit-back-and-watch situation. Even, you know, it's not like he's going to have a chance to make a big impression here prior to next year. Yep. Speaking of prospects, the Arizona Fall League rosters have been announced.

And some of the headliners, Jack Caglione, who was just drafted by the Royals in this year's draft, is the top prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, that will be in the Arizona Fall League, Ethan Salas and Leo de Vries, both from the Padres, Xavier Isaac from the Rays, Colt Emerson and Cole Young from the Mariners, Moises Bayesteros from the Cubs, Bryce Eldridge from the Giants, Jet Williams, Andrew Gilbert from the Mets, Tirmar Johnson from the Pirates, and two returnees, Colson Montgomery, and Chase DeLauder

are headed back out to play in the Arizona Fall League, and I cannot recommend enough if you haven't done it, even if you have to go back again. First pitch Arizona, a fantasy baseball, conference that is put together by the good folks over at Baseball HQ. This year it'll be October 31st through November 3rd. It's at the Sheraton, Mesa, Wrigleyville. You get to watch Arizona Fall League games, attend live panels and podcast. You can participate in way too early drafts. You can meet your favorite experts if they're there. And much more. It's an amazing weekend, unfortunately. I will not be there. I went the previous two years, but I do highly recommend

that you go if you are on the fence. You can check it out. Baseballhq.com. slash pricing slash first pitch Arizona 24. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll look into the crystal ball. Buy or sell for 2025 right after this. Welcome back in Buy or Sell, looking into the 2025 crystal ball, literally looking into this amazing crystal baseball. If you are watching on YouTube, shout out to Dave Coffee, who shipped this over to help enhance the podcast.

He's actually competing for the championship in the For the People Listener League as well. So Chris, we've been pulling up like random baseballs while we do this segment. But now we have a legitimate... I just got mine. Yeah, there you go. We have a legitimate crystal baseball

that we can look into to help us figure out... What do you got there, Scott? That's like a golf ball. It's like one of those spinning soccer ball fidget toys. Ah, there you go. Okay. Ever seen those?

Yeah. So we have it all working here to try and figure out what's gonna happen in 2025. And first up, George Kirby, who turned in a quality start here at the Astros, six innings, one run, six strikeouts with 12 whiffs on 96 pitches. He has turned in three straight quality starts.

And unless I'm mistaken, his season will end with a 353 ERA and a 107 whip just under a strikeout per inning. Buy or sell, George Kirby should be the top Mariners pitcher drafted in 2025. I don't really see. see a case for him ahead of Logan Gilbert. So that sounds like you're selling. Yeah, I would sell it. I mean, Gilbert

finishes, how many strikeouts to Kirby get today? Six? Yes. He finishes the season, I assume Gilbert's not going to make another start, so he finishes the season with 34 fewer strikeouts. Gilbert pitched yesterday. He might pitch Sunday. Yeah, he might. So at least 34 fewer strikeouts for George Kirby than Logan.

Um, worse whip, significantly worse whip actually. Looking Gilbert leads the majors in whip. So I, I think I would have to take Gilbert who's like, I don't know, 90% the control pitcher that George Kirby is, but has more strikeout skills. I can see a path to more strikeouts for Kirby. I just don't know if he's ever going to take it. it seems like he really never wants to walk anyone. And, you know, you're running in-zone rates of like 55, 56, 57%.

I think it's just always going to be really, really hard to get strikeouts that way. And I don't think, like, we did the thing already with George Kirby. We were like, ah, he's going to take a step forward in strikeouts and it didn't happen this year. So I just, I don't see much reason to get. give him that credit when Logan Gilbert's already done that. Yeah. I sell this because I agree Logan Gilbert needs to rank ahead of George Kirby, though they'll probably be pretty close.

Pretty close, yeah. And Kirby ahead of Luis Castillo, right? Yes. I think it would have to be, yeah. Luis Castillo kind of feels like he's going to be in that uninspiring SP2 range as well, right? Yeah, and he's like, like, I like him more than Aaron. Nola or Logan Webb or certainly Zach Allen.

It just feels like he's very clearly on the decline. Maybe he bounces back next year, but. He went from having arguably the best forcing fastball and baseball to just like a pretty good one. And man, everything really kind of took a big step backwards as a result of that. So I don't know how much I want to bet on the soon to be 32 year old figuring that. back out. That's not super old, but it's an age where you probably shouldn't bet on guys recapturing previous skills. I mean, it was still a really effective pitch for him. Yeah, no, it was. It just wasn't. He wasn't that much lower. It just wasn't as effective.

I think Luis Castillo, I mean, look, he had better numbers than Nola, right? Oh yeah, no, in terms of like relative to Nola and Gallin and like I think he might rank ahead of those guys for sure. Yeah, I mean, they're all similar numbers to Nola. Uninspiring, I guess, for a reason, right? Like I don't think I'm going to be excited to draft any of them. Unless maybe they fall, but. And the thing that's tough with Castillo is he kind of always had slightly inflated ERAs relative to other guys draft around him. and I feel like Pablo Lopez has kind of stepped into that

as like the ace whose ERA is just a little uglier than you want it to be. Yeah. But now that the rest of the profile has taken a step back for Castillo, it's like I can, you can see a four plus ERA fairly for Castillo in the lower end of the spectrum. All right, let's move on to Wyatt Langford, who we did talk a lot about early on in the show.

Buy or sell, Wyatt Langford goes 2525 next season. So that's 11 more home runs and eight more stolen bases. I'll buy it. I think so too. It's aggressive. It's a little more aggressive than I want to go. I'll sell it just to be different, but it's definitely in the realm of possibility.

You say Kikuchi continues to pitch well with the Astros, six innings, two unearned runs with eight strikeouts. He had 16 whiffs on 98 pitches. And in 10 starts with Houston, 270 ERA, 0.92 whip. 76 strikeouts over 60 innings. And now I was kind of talking myself into like, oh, wow, you know, the Astros have kind of helped Kukuchi figure it out. I forgot he was a free agent.

So I don't know if he'll be back with the Astros again next season, but by or sell, the Astros have unlocked. You say Kikuchi. I think it is probably a mistake to buy this one. They have made TANI. changes to his approach. But I'll just point out that his final 21 starts last year. He had a 356 ERA, 320 FIP, 129 strikeouts, and 111 innings.

He gave a lot of that back this year. And it took a really good run at the end to he's going to finish still with an ERA above four. And he doesn't put up a ton of innings. He's going to get, yeah, he got to 200 strikeouts this season. Way to go. That's pretty good. And he is a free agent. So I lean cell

So I was looking to see if he had ever Ever thrown his slider as much as he had with the Astros Because that's the main thing that's changed for He's thrown a lot more He's throwing it Having to average it in my head But it's about 37% of the time with the Astros And

And the most he had thrown it prior to that Was 26 No 28% of the time his rookie season So big in I think it was a different type of slider too. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, there've been a lot of changes since 2019, obviously, but I don't necessarily trust him to keep it going, particularly if he's not with the Astra. So I'm also going to sell it. All right. And last up we have Jackson Job, who made his Major League debut up against Tampa Bay. He closed out the ninth inning in a seven to one game. And he only threw nine pitches. He averaged 98 miles per hour on the fastball. He topped out at 99.3. He did. He did. He did. not throw a slider, which I thought was interesting. He did throw three cutters which averaged 2,515

RPM, which for a cutter that seems pretty good. I wish he threw a slider, so. Where's that slider? Where's 3,000 RPM? I would have like to see that. Buy yourself, Jackson, Job, will be in the Tigers opening day rotation. All right, so Terrick Scoobel.

I buy it. I buy it. I don't think they have enough board the arms to fill it out. We just stopped at Scuble. Rees Olson. Yeah. I like is Casey Mize really like locked in I guess since he's still cheap but yeah I think you probably buy it yeah yeah and that would make uh I think even more than the the sleeper switch that would that's probably like the the breakout switch the breakout um alliteration with a B

the breakout button uh the breakout button yeah that's got I was gonna say the breakout bar he's jumped over the bar but yeah button goes better yeah I think how much enthusiasm there is for Jackson Job is going to depend largely on spring training. Yeah, that makes sense. But he ended up throwing like 109 innings, I think, this season, right? Anybody know with any confidence on that number? I will pull it up very quickly, and he is up to 73 and two thirds plus 18. So like, yeah.

991, 92 plus whatever he gets. So I think you could probably project like, 140 innings next year. Yeah. It might make sense for them to just hold him back, you know, like Paul Steens. But trying for the draft pick compensation, I think, makes sense there. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know.

I'll buy it, but it'll require some innings management across the season. And it might be easier to do it at the front end, then the back end. All right, the 2025 Sleeper Switch. We switching it on. We're turning it off for all these names. Let's find out. Parker Meadows continues to hit three for five with his ninth home run in 43 games since returning from the IL. He's batting 291 with six home runs, five steals, and OPS over 800.

What do we think? Parker Meadows, the sleeper switch. I am flipping that switch up. Yeah. I don't know if that's the terminology we want to use, but that's what I'm debuting here for this segment. And the biggest reason is that since returning from the miners in those 43 games, just a 20% strikeout rate. If Parker Meadows is going to do that, then I think the speed alone is reason to target him in five outfielder leagues. And he certainly put himself in position to have a job next year, which was always a question for him too.

So, yeah, I'm calling Meadows a sleeper. Okay. What about DJ Hers who turned in another solid start up against Kansas City, five innings one run with three strikeouts? And he was coming off a rough start, seven earned runs, but he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of 12 starts since being recalled on July 23rd. It kind of feels like there are enough pieces here.

He gets a lot of whiffs on his fastball. The change-up and slider look like pretty good pitches as well. What do we think? DJ Hers, sleeper, sleeper, switch on or off. So I have a pretty chaotic writing style. And the way I organize my writing is I have a Google Doc that just is called random. And I have like, I don't know, four unfinished columns from the various parts of the year and various ideas.

And I have Sleepers Breakouts in Boston. I'm adding players to that. And I already have DJ Hers on my Sleepers list for, what I'm going to write within the next couple of weeks. So yes, the switch is on. DJ Hers, sleeper. I like him. I think the only way he's going to be a sleeper for me

is if everybody's legitimately sleeping on him. If there's a lot of enthusiasm for DJ Hers, I think I'm going to fade him because I don't think the upside is enough to make up for the downside. If you're really, if you're giving up something worthwhile for him if the opportunity cost is anything really yeah i'm i'm betting he's not like

a top 175 pick no no i could see but i'm not even sure i'd want him as a top 225 pick yeah i was gonna say like i would man 332 xera 29% strikeout rate there are some legitimate skills here it's very it's probably too fastball heavy. Like I think he needs the change up or slider to take a step forward. The fastball is carrying a lot of weight, although the curveball has flashed. He doesn't throw it very often,

but there are some interesting signs there. I'm willing to draft him in a head-to-head points league next year. I will say that. Alejandro Kirk has hit better in the second half. He's batting 270 with three home runs, 30 RBI, a 725 OPS, still just a 3-90s. slug during that time.

What do we think? Alejandro Kirk, the sleeper switch. Well, I ranked him as my 20th catcher for next year. So in two catcher leagues, I think he needs to be drafted. Does that make him a sleeper? So you gave the second half numbers and 46 games since taking over as the Blue Jays starting catcher because they traded Danny Janssen. He's hit 290, which he's going to need to hit for average with his profile to be.

be worthwhile. Only three home runs in those 46 games. OPS is around 750. It keeps the strikeout rate low. It's just, is he better than like K. Bear Ruiz? Is he, is Alejandro Kirk basically just another

K. Beruiz who might not play as often? That would be that would give him little chance of being better than the 20th catcher. There there's not a chance they just DFA him, right?

Like that, that's unlikely. He's second year arbitration eligible. He's probably going to make like $4 million. Do they have another direction they can go at catchment? They have a prospect, right? I think just for the defense, they'd keep him around for $4 million. Okay. Consider anything he provides offensively to be gravy.

Like, he should have been there starting catcher all along because he's better defender than Danny Jansen by a pretty significant margin. I don't see a catcher in their top 30, at least according to MLB pipeline. I thought they had one, maybe not. You're probably thinking of Moises-Biasteros who literally looks like Alejandro Kirk.

Maybe that actually might be what I'm thinking. Because these Cubs wear blue as well. That might be what I was thinking. Yeah. What about Edward Cabrera, Chris? Can we talk ourselves into it again for another seat? No, should we just move on? No.

I mean, three of his last four stars were good. I know like the, what is it, the last 11 starts. He has a 357 ERA. It's still a mediocre 121 whip. That's not terrible, but it's not great. It's still a four walks per nine. It's still mediocre, like less than a strike half per inning. I just, he has to throw strikes.

And we just haven't been able to see him do that. It might happen. But I think Cabrera is 100% in a he has to prove it range. And this is not enough to have proved. it. There are enough interesting pitchers in the later rounds that I do not think I will be shopping at the Edward Cabrera store this year.

I think the upside case and the downside case for Edward Cabrera isn't that far off from DJ Hers. So I think it's more likely people will be sleeping like legitimately sleeping on Cabrera.

I'm not going to draft him in like a 12 team head to head league if we're not going to go deep enough into the draft. But in something deeper as a round flyer. I'm not totally riding off Edward Cabrera. I will just say there were a lot of 15 team leagues where I was the only person with any interest in drafting Edward Cabrera this

year, and then he stunk this year. So I'd be surprised even in 15 team leagues if he got drafted. Yeah, that's fair. But that makes him even more of a sleeper. It's a real deep sleeper. I've got a few of those coming up as well. Luis Ortiz of the Pirates,

seven innings, one run, five strikeouts, he has a quality start in four of his last six outings during that stretch a 260 ERA and a 104 whip. Anything here? Sleeper Switch. Louis O'STEZ. I don't see it. I honestly don't see anything here.

Yeah. I mean, he finishes the year with a 332 ERA and 111 whip. So that's not even like that's what you want your sleepers to do. Yeah. Yeah. But I just don't see how he did that or how he'll continue to do that. Yeah, below average strikeout skills, not really great on quality of contact, pretty average. It just, it all adds up to a totally uninteresting pitcher to me.

And then two deep sleepers. We're talking, this is like the best REM sleep you've ever got in your life. Jonathan Clase, three for three with his first career home run here on Wednesday. He now plays for the Blue Jays. He came over at the trade deadline. He had 30 steals in the minors this year. He had 79 steals in the miners last year. The Blutis kind of feel like they're in a transition period.

He might have an opportunity to play next year. I don't know. Jonathan, Class A? He wasn't good at AAA for them. And I don't think there's enough in the batting profile. Like bad plate discipline, poor exit velocities. Okay, he can run. fast. We're talking reserve rounds of an AL draft, I think, for Jonathan Class A.

I think it would only be like, you know, you mentioned earlier, Dalton Varsho is expected to be close to full activity for spring training. I think it would have to be a like Tommy Edmund situation where we get to spring training. He's just not cleared at all to even start to consider it. But I could start to consider it if that was the case. And the last name on this list, Jacob Junice, who pitched well again, five innings, two runs, three strikeouts. And last four starts with the Reds. It is a 171 ERA, a 0.57 whip.

He's bounced around the past couple of years. I don't even know if he gets the chance to start or where he'll be. But he's pitched well here. Overall this season, I mean, a 269 ERA and a 0.85 whip. I think Jacob Junis is the Hold on Let me get there

Who's the other Forget it He's a poor man's Nick Martinez At best I think it's Yeah I haven't called Jacob Junus Asleeper since like 2017

So that's not about to change Fair enough What went wrong with these pitchers this season. We already spoke about Zach Allen. Kevin Gosman turned in a quality start here. Six innings, one run with three strikeouts. Last nine starts, he has a 222 ERA and a 104 whip, well under a strikeout per inning.

The underlying numbers, not buying this great, you know, on the surface, great stretch from Kevin Gosman. What went wrong? And any chances of a bounce back next year? I mean, I can't say there's no chance, but like, remember, he dealt with. the shoulder injury in spring training came back the shape of his splitter was all wrong it never really got right um i i can see it right like he gets through the offseason healthy he gets through

spring training without an incident maybe but like do i really want to bet on a 34 year old doing that i think you're better off not doing that it reminds me a little of when justin verlander came back for Tommy John surgery and he had a Sy Young season but everything underneath it suggested this guy

is on the decline and I didn't heat it then for him and he hasn't been good since basically Gosman's not as old as Verlander was then

but it's a similar situation he is old just generally speaking and it's a similar situation where okay the top line numbers not Tsai Youngworthy but still good

but everything underneath is kind of like, yeah. I'm not sure Gosman. I'm not sure Gosman's going to be a top 40 starting picture for me in 2025. Like, I was looking, I wrote about him for tomorrow's newsletter as a bounceback candidate to fade for 2025. And I wrote about Carlos Rodon is one that I'm actually maybe buying. There's actually some really interesting post-July 1st splits for Carlos Rodon.

That was when he threw away his cutter. And like, Gosman has had. had the better season. I'm going to rank Rodon higher in 2025. Like if I was going to bet on one post-30 ace to bounce back, it would be Rodon ahead of Gosman. Three hitters who've hit much better in the second half.

Nico Horner had a two-homer game here on Wednesday and in the second half batting $2.99. Only three homers, 37 runs, 16 steals for Horner. Cedric Mullins in the second half, 245 with nine home runs, 14 steals, and an 805 OPS. And Jake Berger, up and down in the second half. He had that ridiculous stretch, and then he cooled off.

And now he's picking things back up. But the overall second half numbers, 273, 19 home runs, and a 910 OPS. Berger, Mullins, Horner, big second halves. Yeah, it's actually been going on since June 1st for Cedric Mullins. That magic tape for so many, many hitters that turn their season around. so basically final two-thirds of the season for Cedric Mullins he's hit 257 with 12 homers 21 steals an OPS approaching 800 just a 16% strikeout rate like this is other than that 30-30 season Cetrick Mullen's last four months is about the best he's ever been and it's kind of it's

it's gonna make me take a second look at him when I rank my outfielders because I had kind of written them off as an impact player in fan fantasy. There may be something there still. It feels like there's a decent chance he gets traded, right? Like they just have such a glino. He's been really good. Who's their center fielder if they trade him? I think Kouser has played center field in the minors. But not. Yeah. We wouldn't assume he's right. Yeah. So that is a fair question. I just because that was kind of argument I made for him as a bus this year. Yeah.

They just kind of phase him out of the lineup. And there was a time when it seemed like that was happening. Yeah. And then, I mean, it's kind of gone unremarked upon, but the Orioles offense has been pretty rough for a little while here. They've been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball on the second half of the season. And Mullins is a rare exception.

So I do wonder what that looks. It just, it feels like the suit, the guy who's about to turn 30 seems like the easiest guy to get out of the way. If you're trying to clear a glut. But that's a fair point about the center field position. Yeah. And I also wanted to comment for Nico Horner. Spoiler alert here. It's my number seven ranked second baseman for next year, which is an indictment of the second base position more than anything.

but also says something about Nico. Is that in Roto or head to head point? That's in Roto. So you have him ahead of Luis Garcia? Is he six? Nope. I think we talked about that. Luis Garcia is six, Nico Horner seven.

I have him ahead of Bryce Terrang. Bryce Terang and Roto. Yeah. You have him ahead of Xavier Edwards? Xavier Edwards is not a second base. Not second base eligible. See, this is what I was talking about earlier. So as as Nico Horner,

season's gone like this, Bryce Terrang's has gone like this. Absolutely. And the track record for Bryce Terang is also much worse in general. So, yeah, I mean, you got to give it to Horner. He's kind of had bad, bad bit plucked. Not insanely bad bad bit pluck, but like his actual batting average is less than his expected batting average.

And yet he still had a decent batting average. He only stole one base in April. And yet he's finishing with 30 plus steals. So he's really, salvaged his season here. And it's not as good as last year, but I think Horner's proven he has a nice floor for fantasy.

Colton Kouser, by the way, has played 44 games in center field this season and is 96 percentile in outs above average. That's pretty good. He might be able to play center field if they want to trade Cedric Mullins. I don't know if they want to, but he is entering

his final year of team control Cedric Mullins is, so maybe they would look to trade him in the off season. And while we're talking about Nico Horner, I think there's a chance they could look into trading him as well. The Cubs have kind of a glut of infielders and they've got some prospects coming and Matt Shaw that I think they want to play. But yeah, they just, they almost have too many names. So I think maybe Niko Horner could be on the move there. Some hitting leftover, Shohei Otani continues to just do everything. Two for three with his 56th steel. He also has 53 home runs. Fernando Tatis, two for three

with his 21st homer. It was a bomb. Yeah, I was. Since returning, he's betting 295 with seven homers, two steals, a 967 OPS. Julio Rodriguez stayed hot. He hit his 20th home run.

His updated numbers last 26 games. 359, nine homers, six steals, and OPS over a thousand for J-Rod. Jose Ramirez had himself a huge game. He actually finished a single short of the cycle, three-for-four, with a double, a triple, a home run. Not only is he chasing a 40-40 season, he's chasing 40, 40, 40, 40,

which would be 40 doubles, 40 homers, 40 steals. It's only been done two other times in LB history. He's at 38 doubles, 38 home runs, 40 steals on the season. The production has dipped for Gunner Henderson in the second half, July and August, not so great. He has picked things back up in a big way in September,

batting 333 with four homers, six steals, and an OPS just over 1,000. And Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have homered in the same game 13 times the season for Aaron Judge, it was his 57th homer for Soto, it was his 41st. And Judge, the first hitter with 140 RBI since 2009.

Is Ryan Howard? I didn't see who the last... No, that'd be too late for Ryan Howard. No, it might be because the Yankees faced the Phillies in the World Series that year. Hmm. Might have been.

I didn't look at... Ryan Howard, 141 RBI in 2009. That's a good call. Wow, right off the dome. Look at you. Yeah. All right. That's a lot of RBI.

Yeah. Some bullpen updates for the Guardians' manual class A gave up a hit and a walk. Walk two, excuse me, picked up his 47th save the most in a single season in Guardians' history for Emmanuel Class A. For the Pirates, our oldest Chapman gave up a hit, but struck out one for his 12th save. For the Royals, Lucas Urseg, struck out one for his 13th. For the Cardinals, Ryan Helsley got the final two outs for his 48th save. for the debacks Justin Martinez entered in the seventh inning with a four-run lead facing five, six, and seven in the Giants lineup.

He recorded four outs. He gave up one run on a walk and three hits. AJ Puck recorded three outs across the eighth and ninth innings. And then Kevin Ginkle got the final two outs to finish out that one. Oh, goody. Yeah. Love to see that. Yeah, I know you're a total mess.

You're a big fan of AJ Puck, right? Scott, getting that job eventually. Yeah, I mean, and obviously. this year's basically over, so it's not worth analyzing that much. But it would appear that Justin Martinez is on the outs, as he should be. And then for the Dodgers, Michael Kopeck walked one, but struck out one for his 15th save of the season. To stream or not to stream on, I don't know, what just happened here? Who did this?

Somebody did something with the notes and it kind of messed up a bunch of stuff. But anyway, on Thursday, we have Tyler Anderson. I wasn't even looking at it, so it couldn't have been me. It might have been me. Yeah. For Thursday, Tyler Anderson at the White Sox, Aaron Savali at the Pirates, Kumar Rocker at the A's,

David Festa versus the Marlins. Do you ever have that? I mean, I'm sure you do, Chris, as a fellow writer where you enter something in the keyboard and you realize the cursor

isn't where you thought it was and you have no idea Oh, yeah. What screen or document you entered that to, and then you just randomly stumble across it. You're just alt tabbing and control Zing until you get back to normal. Yeah, absolutely. So that's what happened to you in the notes. Anyway.

Thursday, Reese Olson, Tyler Anderson are the two that I would start. Olson, I guess there's some concern that he won't go deep because he only threw, what, four innings in his most recent start? Yeah, and it wasn't very effective. I'd be Yeah I want to be thrilled to use them I think I'd go Anderson Swipers switching on by the way for Reese Olson

Yeah Yeah I like Resolson long term Anderson Savali and Festa I think for For Thursday Yeah the Marlins have been like weirdly annoying Like scoring runs early on

in games lately and screwing up starting pitchers But I still think their offense is bad So yeah Anderson Festa and Savali And then on Friday we have James and Tyone facing the Reds. We have, gosh, this is

JP Sears at the Mariners, I guess, could work out. And he was high on the sleeper pitchers for this week, but they've, there haven't been many good sleeper pitchers in recent weeks. I feel like, as soon as Reid Detmer's just, like, destroyed us for a two-star week, he's going to go out and just have an awesome start. He's going to strike out 14.

100%. I'm not saying to use him. I'm just saying that's going to happen. I don't want to use any. Like, I don't like any. Like, Tyone is the closest and I don't like Tyone. If my championship is on the line, like, I'd have to be in dire straits, I think, to use any of these guys right now. James and Dionne against Cincinnati, yeah, that's probably, even though he wasn't on the sleepers list and J.P. Sears was, I don't know.

Either one of them, I guess would be my top choices. Yeah, I think so, too. Tion and Sears for Friday. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.