Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 First Base Recap! Preseason ADP, Top-12 Finishers & More! (10/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 21, 2025

Before we get to first base, the World Series is set with the Dodgers taking on the Blue Jays (2:16). ... What is the state of first base (6:22)? ... Let's take a look back at preseason ADP (10:02). ... We did get some news updates plus Ohtani keeps making history (17:22). ... Let's recap the top-12 first baseman, starting with Pete Alonso. ... Josh Naylor stole 30 freakin bases (27:47)! ... Can Rafael Devers bounce back (32:04)? ... Nick Kurtz just had a historic rookie season (38:28). ... Vlad Jr. is so talented but it doesn't translate to Fantasy production (45:17). ... Matt Olson feels steady (48:50). ... Age has caught up Freddie Freeman (50:50). ... Yandy Diaz just had a career year (53:30). ... Vinnie Pasquantino also put up a career year (55:41). ... Willson Contreras feels more like a corner infielder for Fantasy (57:41). ... Tyler Soderstrom had a nice little breakout season (59:44). ... We wrap up with a quick look at Chris' early 2026 first base rankings (1:02:30). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Hello, welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, October 21st. I am Frank Stamphill joined by Chris Towers.

Today on the show, we are recapping the first base position. We'll look at preseason ADP, what went right, what went wrong, who finished in the top 12, and then an early look at 2026 rankings. But first, Chris, the World Series is set. The Dodgers are taking on the Blue Jays. Toronto's first time back since 1993, dramatic Game 7 win. They kind of have this team of destiny feel to them, but they also have the Dodgers waiting for them.

I don't know. Well, and like Kevin Gosman had to pitch tonight. Like, that's the benefit of winning in a four-game sweep is everybody on the Dodgers side is going to be rested as if they needed help. But no, the Blue Jays, they were one of the best teams in baseball all season. They've got enough pitching, enough hitting. Like, the Dodgers are clearly the more talented team. And if that's all the matters, then they're going to win. but that's not the only thing that matters.

The Blue Jays have a really good deep lineup full of. I think too much has been made of like, oh, the hitting for contact. The Blue Jays proved the hitting for contact is all that matters in the playoffs. And it's like, well, no, they got some guys who can hit bombs too. Like George Springer won it with a home run, you know, like that's overblown. But that specific skill, that ability that they have up and down the lineup to hit for power without sacrificing contact as much as some other teams is a really big thing for them.

Hopefully, Bo Bichette is ready to go. It's unclear at this point if he will be, but definitely pulling for him to give the Blue Jays another bat in their lineup. And there's a lot of Dodgers fans out there. Los Angeles County is a big population. There's a lot of kids rooting for Shohei. I understand all that.

You've got to be rooting for. for the Blue Jays. Right? Like if you're an unaffiliated baseball fan, you don't want to see the Dodgers win again. It's the Blue Jays. Come on. You know what?

The World Series actually doesn't start until Friday. So the Blue Jays do get a bunch of time off here. So they can get guys kind of rested up and ready to go. Okay, I didn't realize there was that much time. I didn't realize either. But, you know, they could potentially have Gosman ready to go for that or even Trey you Savage if they wanted to go that direction. So, yeah, as an impartial observer here, not a fan of either team.

I don't know, I'm kind of torn because the Blue Day's eliminated the Yankees, but also I don't. Oh, get over yourself. I don't want the Dodgers to win every single year, so I hope it's a competitive series, and we get great baseball. I guess I'll just, I'll say that for now. I do feel really poorly for obviously the Mariners and Brewers. They both had fantastic seasons. I mean, the Mariners, right? They haven't made it there yet, and like, they're so close.

to lose the way they did late in that game and give up that three-run homer. It's gosh. And that decision to go to Bizarro instead of there are a lot of decisions you can kind of question here. You could have left Kirby in longer. You could have left Wu in longer there. You could have went to Munoz.

So for the most part, I didn't have a problem with taking Kirby out when they did. I know he was getting out, but it wasn't like it was, I think, one strikeout in four innings. It wasn't like he was blowing guys away. It's it's been like that for him all season. where he's been effective enough,

but not really himself. Woo, I thought that was a quick hook. Quick hook with Wu. And, man, that's just heartbreaking. I was really pulling for them. I liked this team a lot. Yeah, they let Brian Wu go one time through the order. I thought it was interesting.

They pulled him with, I think, Jimenez coming up, or maybe it was Springer coming up, but he struck Springer out in his first at bat. He looked dominant against Springer. So I was a little surprised they took Brian Wu out as well. But, you know, in this day and age where you don't have starting pitchers that go seven, eight, nine innings regularly like they did back in the day, I mean, all of these relief pitcher decisions are kind of put under a microscope. And that's kind of where we're left here

with the Seattle Mariners, unfortunately. So the Dodgers take on the Blue Jays. Good luck to both fan bases. We'll see what happens. Let's dive into first base, Chris, and start things off with the state of first base. I think it's, I think it's an okay position right now. It's, It's mostly aging, but we do get the addition of Nick Kurtz, who looks like an elite player, and also Raphael Devers, who gained first base eligibility throughout the year. So what are your thoughts? First base eligibility. True.

What are your thoughts on First Base? It's fine. If you look at the position as a whole relative to the league, this is not the best the first base has ever been. 2024 first baseman collectively had a 107 WRC plus that's the lowest mark since at least 2002 that's when fan graphs started tracking production by position so like when players are playing first base not just listed as a first baseman you know this year it bounced back to 109 so a little better across the league but still the fourth lowest mark as a whole and i think there's probably a couple of explanations for that one is just that the DH has made it so that some of those guys who would have, Kyle Schwabber probably would have been playing first base for the Phillies this year, if not for the DH, right? And Bryce Harper's probably playing the outfield.

And, you know, you have fewer of those guys playing first base, more of them are moving to DH. I think you just also, like, the first base prospects of the past decade have been pretty bad. It's like Pete Lonzo, Cody Bellinger, if we count him as a first baseman, he was more of a center fielder coming up. And then it's like, Tork and Andrew Vaughn were huge prospects. Yeah, Tork and Andrew Vaughn and like they've both been league average hitters. They've been okay.

In their careers, but neither has been a huge difference maker. Kind of the same for like Josh Bell. Tristan Kossis has had moments, but obviously I think has been a disappointment. you know there there have just been a lot of first basemen who have failed to live up to expectations over the past decade and you don't have as many guys shifting down the defensive spectrum to first base as you used to because teams are better about defensive positioning even in the post shift era and so first base used to be by far the best position for hitters in fantasy and now if you just take hitters into account like hitting, not base running, it's probably better than shortstop.

But on the whole, it's probably pretty close. And, you know, obviously there are a lot more short stops who can steal bases. So at this point, first base is definitely the second best in field position. But it's probably just the second best. And it's probably shortstop by a wide margin. That being said, second and third base might be in worse shape than first base right now. And we're getting there. It's okay. First base is okay. A lot of old guys. We could use more of those young guys to step up.

Bryce Eldridge, man. We're looking at you. Please. Let's get another first base prospect here. Kyle Manzardo, Michael or Jonathan Aranda, would be nice to get some of those guys to take a big step forward. For everything that we just said, Nick Kerch just had a massive season. And he was a first base prospect. He's a big part of why first base is in better shape than it was last. You know, shout out to Michael Bush, too. He had a great season as well, so finally coming through. So, yeah, like some have hit, but obviously we do need a little bit more impact here at the first base position. Taking a look at the preseason top 12 in terms of first base ADP, according to fantasy pros, which included Yahoo, CBS, NFBC fan tracks, and RT sports drafts.

The top 12, we had Vlad Jr., Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Pete Alonzo, Josh Naylor. that was your top six. Nothing catastrophic. Bryce Harper was a bit of a letdown, but dealt with injuries, obviously. 7 through 12, we had Christian Walker, who you pointed out multiple times, Chris, actually got his season back on track

a little bit here in the second half. Salvador Perez, who I think most people use as a catcher, but obviously it was still useful for fantasy. Cody Bellinger, who actually no longer has first base eligibility. One of the big wins of this year. Yeah. Tristan Kossis, who got hurt. early on in the season, missed most of the year. Jake Berger, who is probably the biggest bust,

and then Vinnie P. Baby! Vinnie Pass Quintino, big breakout season, finally stayed healthy and put it all together there. According to the Fangraph's Player Raider, seven of those 12 actually finished inside of the top 12, so one more than the catcher position, that's a 58% hit rate on the top 12. Biggest breakouts at the position,

how about a pair of teammates? We mentioned Nick Kurt, obviously, he's at the top of the list, 36 homers and just 489 played appearances. But Tyler Soderstrom, who played some first base, had to move to the outfield, learn that position on the fly in the majors because Nick Kurtz was so good.

Gold Glove finalist. Actually had a really good season. Tyler Soderstrom, Gold Glove finalist in the outfield. How about that? He actually has a terrific arm too. I didn't realize his arm strength is, you know, it's one of the best in the league, according to Stackass.

He hit 276, 25 homers, 93 RBI. his preseason ADP was 269. I also mentioned Michael Bush a little bit earlier on. So we'll talk about the A's players a little bit later. The biggest bust at first base, probably Jake Berger, right? I mean, again, it didn't feel like there was anything too catastrophic at this position. You know, Jake Berger was on the aisle three different times with a strain left oblique, a left quad injury, and then a sprain left wrist.

He's actually already had off-season surgery to repair a tendon sheath. that left wrist. So that injury originally occurred in mid-August. But he was bad early on. I don't want to just blame him being bad on all these injuries and things. Yeah, Jake Berger, probably the biggest bust, I would say. Yeah, and this is one where from a fantasy perspective, we often rightly ignore stuff like base running and defense and on-base percentage

because ultimately those things don't matter directly for fantasy, at least in a 5 by 5 roto context and points leagues obviously you like guys who walk but Jake Berger has exactly one major league caliber skill and that is hitting for power and on a Marlins team that was absolutely desperate for playing time that didn't matter he was going to play as we saw in the Rangers though

if he's not hitting for power he was going to lose playing time and that was my concern going into the season is that the Marlins were able to ride that terrible start to the season for Jake Berger out, just because it's not like they had anybody else that they could play at first or third base. The Rangers had other options,

and then he started losing playing time as a result of that, and he never got the chance to get that hot streak that ultimately saved his season. I thought he was being way overdrafted. He was almost the top 100 pick by the end of draft season. I don't know if there's like an obvious example of a guy like that heading. into next season.

Maybe A. Eugenio Suarez. Obviously, that's a different position, but like a guy who really needs to hit for a lot of power. I don't know. I don't know if there's another. How about Torkelson? We've already seen him fail once before, get demoted. If he's not hitting for power, he's really not providing much. That's a good point.

Yeah, he does walk a little more. Yeah. Because Berger's one of the rare powerheaders who just doesn't walk at all either. So he really just has no way to impact you. I guess Savador Perez, but he's probably never going to lose playing time on that Royals team. They're just too committed to him at that point. But yeah, there's not a lot of examples of guys like Jake Berger, but it is a lesson to be learned moving forward.

All right, before we hit our first break, just want to remind everyone to subscribe to Chris's FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, CBSports.com slash newsletters, or if you're watching on YouTube, scan that QR code. That will take you right to the website, you could sign up for free. He's been sending out these great state of the position write-ups. I think you're up to third base now, Chris, shortstop. Shortstop will be coming out on Tuesday. There you go. So making your way through the infield.

Oh, God, now I have outfield after that. Oh, that's going to take all week. Good luck, buddy. Lots of great notes, things that we're talking about today, but obviously, like, even more than that, you know, going into the biggest risers and fallers year over year and things like that. So, yes, make sure to sign up for the newsletter or stay. subscribed if you haven't already. Let's take that break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in the fantasy baseball today. Let's quickly hit on some news, some playoff updates. We already spoke about the World Series being set, the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays. I would be remiss if I didn't mention what Shohe O'Donnie did in that final game, Chris.

I mean, game four. Not only did he go three for three with a triple dong, three homers in that game. He started the game as the pitcher and threw a gems. Shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, 19 whiffs on 100 pitches. I feel like we say this all the time. That's it. We're speechless. There's nothing. I don't know what else to say, right?

The fact that we've said it all, he is, in my opinion, the greatest baseball player I've ever watched play baseball. And in a clinching game, he goes out and does that. Like, the thing that we always do is they're like, wow, you know, since Babe Ruth, nobody but like nobody's done this no i don't think people understand that like babe ruth was never a full-time hitter and pitcher he had like one season where he made 15 starts and was like a full-time hitter but like this was not like a a regular occurrence from babe ruth and otani when he's healthy is going every sixth or seventh day dominating as a pitcher

and he's like the third best hitter in baseball. It's second best hitter in baseball. It's Aaron Judge and like it's just crazy. Love the Dodgers or hate the Dodgers, man. Just try and take a step back if you are a baseball fan. And I'm sure most people have done this. And just appreciate what we are watching because I don't think we're ever going to see anything like this again. The Yankees had their end of season press conference and we learned quite a few things.

First, Aaron Judge will not have offseason elbow. surgery for now. Let's hope it stays that way. Carlos Rodon had surgery to remove loose bodies and shave down a bone spur in his left elbow. He shut down from throwing for eight weeks and the team expects him to be delayed to start next season. They made it sound like he'll only miss a few weeks, maybe the first month of the season. But, you know, it's a relatively minor procedure, Chris, but anything with the elbow, you know, there can always be setbacks. So it kind of throws a wrench in Carlos Rodon's 2026 outlook.

And Rodan is not a guy who feels like he has. has a huge margin for error. Like, he's good. And obviously, is coming off a very good season 309. ERA. The peripherals not quite as good. And I think expecting a step back in 2026 was reasonable to begin with.

Now he'll be coming back from elbow surgery, potentially limited in spring training, delayed to start the season. It just, he's just not going to have a normal program. You know, it's just. Yeah, feels like there's a lot more ways for this to go wrong. For a guy who.

often when you're watching him feels like it's always right on a nice edge of him about to fall apart. So I'm thinking, leaning Carlos Rodon as a bust call for 2026, unfortunately. We'll see if everyone's scared off of him, you know, it might just create a buying opportunity if he's just, you know, one of the last picks of the draft or something like that.

It also sucks because he's out of nowhere developed into this workhorse, right? 175 plus innings two years in a row, just through 195 in a third inning. It's really like last five seasons. He's really only had one with injuries, right? Yeah, he was consistently going six plus innings, too, for the majority of this past season.

A ton of wins the last two years. Yeah, so unfortunate there on Carlos Rodon. Garrett Cole, who had Tommy John surgery with internal bracing last March, will not be ready for opening day, but we pretty much expected that. Anthony Volpe, who underwent shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum, We'll start next season on the IL. My guess is Jose Caballero will be in line to start at shortstop unless they make a different move in the offseason,

but that's the way things are set up right now for the Yankees. Aaron Boone said he views Ben Rice as the team's primary first baseman next season. Let's hope they don't go out and do anything crazy to change that. They also said Jason Dominguez is expected to be an everyday player and Prospect Spencer Jones is in the mix for a role at the major league level. So we'll see. We did get some updates from John Heyman as well. Terrick Scuba and the Tigers are roughly $250 million apart

in contract extension negotiations, which if I'm just doing the math, I'm trying to figure out, Terrick Scouble probably wants between $350 and $400 million. He wants the biggest contract and rightfully deserves it, I would say. Does that mean the Tigers are offering him like $150 million? Five years, $150? What are they doing? That's not.

I'm not going to get it done. That's like, like, Carlos Rodan got like 130, right? I think he got, here you go, I have six for 160, so. Yeah, like, what? Like, dude, I don't know. Between that and the brewers potentially looking to trade Freddie Peralta, it's just like, what are we, what are we even doing that? I mean, that's what the brewers do, so I guess I'm not as surprised by that.

But if- He makes $8 million next year. Yeah, yeah. Like, Terrick Scouble at least is going to be probably like $25,000. I don't know if he's, I don't think he's signed for next year. I think he's going into arbitration. So he's probably going to be a huge number. Freddie Peralta's $8 million next year.

Yeah. But this is also just what the brewers do, right? They trade a player entering their final year of a deal just to try and recoup some assets there and kind of rebuild the team. That's generally just what they always do. Scoobel, by the way, entering a contract year for next year. Not sure if the Tigers will wind up shopping him,

but if they do, we've already learned that the New York Mets would be involved, and that makes a ton of sense. They have so many prospects. They need an ace. I hope it doesn't happen selfishly, but I can see it happening, is the main point there. Also, according to John Heyman, the Dodgers are expected to pursue Kyle Tucker in free agency. So that would be something. Brandon Woodruff, who did not pitch in the postseason due to a right last train,

is expected to be 100% well ahead of spring training. Brendan Donovan underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia. As expected, Yvonne Herrera underwent surgery last week to have bone spurs removed from his right elbow. The procedure is considered minor and should be ready for spring training. The Tigers expect Troy Melton will be in the rotation next season. He looked pretty good in the majors between starting and relieving. 276 ERA 101 whip. Underlight numbers didn't buy it as much, but lots of whiffs in the minors,

the stuff plus readings look pretty good based on what I saw. also. He'll be a very popular sleeper next year. Yeah, I think Troy Milton definitely in that sleeper conversation. Nestor Cortez underwent surgery to repair a tendon tear in his left arm and will be sidelined nine to ten months. He'll miss most of 2026. And some manager notes,

the Giants have been linked to Tony Vitello, who is currently the head coach of the University of Tennessee. It sounded like it was about to happen, but we haven't gotten an official announcement yet. So we're waiting for that, but it still could ask. That's fascinating. You never, like other sports, you see that a lot, guys making the jump from college. That never happens in baseball.

I can't remember the last time a guy who has no major league experience got picked up from a college program. But University of Tennessee has been very, very fun the last few years. They won like 60 games in 2024 or something, something crazy like that. I don't know a single thing about college baseball, but whenever I, the past few years, I watched the MLB draft on MLB Network. he's always there providing coverage because I guess A, he has a lot of great players on his team, and B, he goes up against other great players. So he can talk about it.

But yeah, I mean, he seems like a smart dude, you know, kind of. Great piece on Fangraphs.com about him today by Michael Bauman, worth checking out before that move potentially happens. And the Angels will not hire Albert Pujols as their manager. Apparently, the Orioles and Padres are still in the mix, though, for Albert Pujols. Let's get back to first base, the top 12 first baseman from this past season. This is according to the Fangraph's Player Rader. This is for Roto slash categories, but I'll also mention some fantasy points per game as well.

And up first, Pete Alonzo, your top first baseman, he finished first in total headshead points as well. Average 3.3 fantasy points per game had his best all-around season since 2022, where he hit 38 homers, 126 RBI this year. that was second most in the majors. Back in spring training, and you never know how seriously to take reports like this. Alonzo said that he noticed some things that he did well in the playoffs last year, and he wanted to implement those into his 2025 approach.

And it worked. I mean, he hit the ball harder than ever before. The expected stats were really good. I love what he did this past season. The biggest question is he's now a free agent once again. I think we all just kind of hope he goes back to the Mets, just because there's, familiarity there and it's a great lineup i think yeah no i i think it's going to be huge rbi

numbers he led the national league in rbi last season there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about pita lanzo and how he's going to age 31 year he'll be 31 years old next season uh there is not much athleticism to speak of here that he can afford to give away there There were some, you know, the zone contact moved in the wrong direction this season. I think it was his worst since he was a rookie. That's a little concerning. I don't think Pete Alonzo is someone who's going to age incredibly well as he gets closer to his mid-30s. I also don't see much reason to doubt him heading into this season.

He, relative to some of the other guys at this position, specifically Nick Kurtz and Vladimir Guerrero, I think P. Alonzo has a more well-defined ceiling. You know, we know what the best case scenario for Pete Alonzo looks like, and it's something like last season, which is really good. I think Vladimir Guerrero and Nick Kurtz's ceilings are a little higher. So he'll be the, Ptelonzo will be the third, the first baseman drafted, I think, in every league. The number two first baseman was Josh Naylor,

who averaged 3.4 fantasy points per game that was second behind only Nick Kurtz. And Nailer has finished as a top 40 player overall, two years in a row, and he has done it in completely different ways. So two years ago, it was more power, 31 home runs. This year the power drops off, but he seals 30 bases out of nowhere for Josh Nailer. You know, if I'm just projecting for next season, I have no idea, but I would probably expect 10 to 12 steals.

Anything more than that, I think would be gravy. He's also a free agent this all-season Josh Nailer. but based on his skill set Chris he makes a lot of contact he kind of owns who he is I don't really worry about where he winds up to be honest yeah I think to a certain extent

there's a little bit of what happened with Willie Adamas last year remember he stole a career high 21 his previous career high before that was eight he went back to 12 this year and it's not like he got caught a bunch he only attempted 16 Naylor's career high before this season

I believe was 10 set in 2023 again, he stole 30 bases here, 19 of them in 54 games with the Mariners. He was on basically a 60 steel pace after getting traded to the Mariners. I want to put some context to this because you might understand that Josh Naylor is slow. So the slowest base runner to steal 30 bases in the stack cast era, which goes back to 2015. The slowest player to steal 30 bases in a season in that time before this year was Kyle Tucker. who was in the 33rd percentile in sprint speed, I believe.

Well, Juan Soto's still 38. He was in the 18th percentile, so that's already very, very slow. Josh Nailer's in the third percentile on sprint speed. 96 percent of major league players are faster than Josh Naler, and he stole 30 bases this year. Look, kudos to him. He's a great base runner, very opportunistic, knows when to take advantage of opportunities. It felt like half of them he didn't even slide into second.

he got such good jumps and was in such good situations, but it was a contract year. Base stealing is one thing you can definitely boost as a pending free agent. I don't think there's any way you can bet on Josh Nailer as a base stealer next year. I would say 14 and a half over under feels reasonable. I think I'd take the under. I would easily take the under. Unless if he goes back to Seattle,

that's the only place where maybe I could see him getting, 15 to 18, something like that, but even still. Now, it wasn't just stolen bases. He hit 292 for the season, including 2.95 or 295 overall. The counting stats are always good. He makes contact. He drives in a lot of runs. There's a lot to like about Josh Naylor. It's just he was the number two first baseman because he stole 30 bases. If he stole 10 bases, he's probably, I don't know, the number seven first baseman or whatever. To add a little bit more context to the stolen bases, Josh Naylor had 25. total steals in 598 career games entering 2025, and then he had 30 in... That's so funny.

I didn't write down how many games he played, but it was probably around 150 or something like that. Yeah, it was just bonkers stuff there. I am confident that Josh Naylor is going to be a productive player. How he's going to be productive might be hard to predict. But he's probably someone that profiles even a little bit better in a points league because of that, right? He just makes a lot of contact.

and, you know, he should hit decent amount of home runs. Batting average, counting satch. It'll be good. But, yeah, some years, maybe a few more steals, less power, and vice versa there for Josh Nailer. The number three, first baseman was Cody Bellinger, but he does not have first-based eligibility next season. He could regain it, depending on where he winds up.

He's also a free agent. Seems likely. If he goes back to the Yankees, he probably would not play first base at all. So that's one thing to keep in mind. but if he goes to a completely different team that has a stacked outfield and opening at first base, then that can change.

So we'll skip on Cody Belanger for now. We have a long season to talk about him. Your number four, first baseman, welcome to Raphael Devers. 3.2 fantasy points per game that was tied for fifth at the position. A turbulent season here for Devers. He entered with the lingering shoulder issues

still kind of a problem. He was delayed in spring training. Then he got traded to the Giants in June. He dealt with some other nagging injuries throughout the year. Strikeouts got worse. Batting average suffered. Now we have to try and project a full season for Devers in Oracle Park, which is obviously a bad place for a left-handed slugger to hit.

And he struggled there. Even with all that, he popped 35 homers with 109 RBA. Yeah, I'm not sure what to do with Rafael Devers. He's a tough one. Part of me just thinks, who cares? just we know what this guy is he's been around long enough just just give him his 280 290 batting average or maybe you want to lower it to 270 in san francisco and you know he'll he'll rake on the road and make up for it and he'll get us 30 to 35 homers and a bunch of

rbi i and just don't overthink it but it's like 12 games in cores field right that helps there is some really concerning stuff in the underlying plate discipline numbers. Well, actually not really the plate discipline numbers because he, you know, he walked a lot this year. His strikeout rate is 26%. It's manageable. He does that while being in the like second or third percentile in zone contact rate. He's down to 71.4 percent that's been really, really low the last two seasons. League average is 83 percent. It's a fine line he's walking. at this point. And he's able to do it

because he doesn't get himself into many two strike counts. He makes a lot of contact when he does swing. He doesn't swing at bad pitches. He makes damage when he does. And it's all working right now because he's 28 years old

and he's still in the prime of his career. What does it look like if the bat speed slows down a little bit? And with a much tougher... It actually did this year. He went from 61st percentile to 41st this year. Okay.

Still hit 35 homerge. I think that was, that might have, I would assume that got better as the season went on because I remember it being really low early on. But yeah, that's, with the worst home park, it just, it feels like there's a lot more chance of things going really, really wrong for Rafael Devers in a way that didn't exist before. So I think you just have to bake in a little more uncertainty, maybe a lower floor for him. but he's still a top five first baseman for me. I totally agree that Devers is one of these players that might fall off rather quickly throughout the course of his career.

Like a Pablo Sandoval type. But at 29 years old, I don't think it's going to happen next year. Obviously, I don't like the venue for him in Oracle Park in San Francisco, but I don't really want to make too much of it. Now, he hit 236 in 90 games with San Francisco. he hit just 234 in 48 games at Oracle Park, so those numbers are not great.

But just given the track record, I'd probably expect like 260 to 270, so a lower batting average, but also not lower than this year, but lower than the usual for him. But still the usual like 30 to 35 home runs. So it might fall off quickly in the future, so if you have them in Dynasty, you think about that.

But just for redraft next year, I still think we're going to get a pretty useful and productive season out of Raphael. Devers. I think four to seven at first base and he's right in there. I have him fifth. Scott has him sixth. The four to seven, I think are razor thin margins between Matt Olson, Bryce Harbor, Raphael Devers, and Freddie Freeman. And it really just kind of depends on what you're looking for. They're all Devers is the youngest of them, but he has his own red flags. The rest of those guys are like legit mid-30s now, I think. Yeah. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll talk about the.

Big Amish. That's right. That's Nick Kurtz's nickname. It's pretty cool one. Let's talk about him right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are recapping the top 12 first baseman from this past season. And number five was Nick Kurtz, but on a per game basis, 3.7 fantasy points per game. That led the position by far. It was not particularly close. He hit 290 with 36 homers, 90 runs, 86 RBI, and OPS just over 1,000, in just 100. 17 games, Chris. I think the power is absolutely legit. He hits the ball as hard as anybody.

He hits home runs to all fields. It does not matter. You don't need to look at pull the error rate for him. He can go oppo center, right? It does not matter for Nick Kurtz. But he struck out a lot. And even when it improved throughout the season, because we brought that up in season,

it jumped back up to 35% strikeout rate in September. Also, his XBA was 255. I struggle with things. like this, Chris, because he's not a finished product. He's still super young. He's 23 years old. I don't want to doubt someone who just showed as much promise and talent as he has. He could easily improve. But we also have to be realistic about his warts. His strikeout rate, his whiff rate, his own contact were all very bad. And he was also terrible against lefties. So I think there is real batting average risk with Nick Kurtz. Yeah, I don't think anybody's going to be

realistic about Nick Kurtz's flaws in 2026. I just I don't I don't think that's going to happen. I mean, I I'm I almost didn't rank him as my number one first baseman. I ended up getting there, but I gave it a strong consideration. And I think part of it is nobody wants to crap on the big young guy, right? Like nobody wants to say, yeah, he's probably not going to do that again because you sound like a wet blanket. Nobody wants to be that. Everybody wants to be that. Everybody wants to be that. Everybody wants to think that every great young player is going to condemn. And Nick Kurtz was not just great. He was historically great.

There have only been, let's see, he was the sixth player in major league history with at least a thousand OPS in at least 450 plate appearances as a rookie. Six times ever. Wow. And not a lot of flukes on this list. You tell me if you hear a fluke here. Albert Poo-holes. Aaron Judge

Ted Williams Like right there Three of the I don't know Ten best hitters of all time Okay Ryan Braun wasn't that But Ryan Braun was an awesome player Probably would be a Hall of Famer if not for Yeah if not for the Sterer

I mean I don't know if he would have been A Hall of Famer if not for the Starras But you get it Yeah Hall of Fame caliber player Bernie Carbo You'll be forgiven if you've never heard of Bernie Carbo I think he played for the Reds

It was like that that's the one legit fluke. That's the one that like, you know, you've never seen little giants, have you? I did when I was a kid. It's like, yeah, you beat Danny O'Shea down Cherry Tree Hill or whatever one time. Like that, yeah, Bernie Carbo can do that one time. But even that, you look at those guys who did it, who had a thousand OPS as a rookie.

All right, Ted Williams had a thousand OPS his second season. That's Ted Williams just kind of lived in a thousand OPS territory. Aaron's judge dropped from 1049 to 919. Albert Poole's dropped from 1013 to 955. Ryan Braun dropped from 104 to 888. Bernie Carbo dropped from 104 to 677. Again, he's the outlier. I do not think Nick Kurtz is Bernie Carbo.

And the thing is, there is nothing wrong with being a low 800s, low 900s to high 800s OPS bad. That's really good. it probably also would mean that Nick Kurtz is going to be a disappointment next season because it probably means that he either isn't the 40 home run guy that we think or that he's like a 240 hitter and it's more like Pete Alonzo. It's just asking a lot for a guy who is not going to steal any bases and has batting average risk to be a borderline first round pick and that's what Nick Kurtz is going to be.

I don't know if he's going to end up as a top 12 pick. It might be more like top 15, top 16. but it's going to be a premium premium pick. You're going to have to pass on potentially one of those three aces. You're going to have to pass on Jackson Churio or, you know, Cal Raleigh or somebody. I think it's probably more likely than not that Nick Kurtz is a disappointment in 2026 than that he is a bonus, that he provides. Certainly it's more likely he provides less value than he's worth at draft day. then he provides more, I would say, because there's just not a lot of room for a four category,

maybe three category guy to beat a first round or high second round price tag. I think he's awesome. I think he's potentially one of the best power hitters in baseball. I think that home park is going to really help. But his XBA was 255. If he's a 260 hitter next season and he's still not stealing bases and there's no reason to expect him to steal bases. 260 with 40 homers 100, 100. That's awesome.

That's Pete Alonzo. That's a great player, but it's, yeah, it's not, it's not, like, you need him to be pushing to 50 homers or you need him to hit like 280, 290 to be worth that price. I don't think it's very likely that Nick Hertz is a huge disappointment to the point where I'm probably not going to have him on like bust lists, but I'm probably also not going to be drafting him with a top 20 pick either. I think my, again, because I trust the power, I think the median projection and projections aren't out yet,

but I would probably just expect 40 home runs from Nick Kurtz. I absolutely think he has the upside to hit 50 plus. I mean, there's no doubt in my mind. So if he hits 260 but hits 50 homers, then he's worth a borderline first round pick. But that's also a lot to ask of a second year player. You're also like, you got to think about it this way. You're probably passing on Junior Camerreau if you're taking him that high.

Who just hit 45? I have my questions about Junior Camerero. I think it's fair to have. those questions as well but Kamenaro was the better prospect had he's the better all-around hitter I would say is the better all-around hitter I think has that batting average upside that I I know Nick Kurtz hit what 290 as a rookie yeah he even for how hard he hits the ball you're not gonna get a 370 babb or whatever it was from him so it just 364 yeah there are just there are more ways for this to go wrong at his price. But he's still my number one first baseman. Yeah. Well,

what about your number two first baseman? He was the number six first baseman this year. That was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who averaged 3.2 fantasy points per game that was tied for fifth at the position. He regressed across the board from 2024. And he's just so frustrating to me, Chris, because we know how talented Vlad Jr. is. We are seeing it in the playoffs right now. He looks like one of if not the best hitter in all of baseball. His updated postseason numbers heading into the World Series. He's hitting 442 with six homers

and a 1440 OPS. We just don't see that consistently enough from fantasy. His overall finishes the past four years. 43rd, 13th, 62nd, 24th. That is an average of 35.5. And it's kind of frustrating. And I guess five years ago was the number one player? That was the number one.

I didn't include that, but also I don't think it's realistic. Yeah, and you look at, you know, what I like to do is compare, you know, I think the reason people are going to take Nick Kurtz over Vladimir Guerrero is just upside, right? Well, Vladimir Guerrero has had 117 really good games in a row before, too. When it comes to power specifically, you have to go back to 2021. He has not had 36 homers in 117 game stretch. since then. The most he's had,

27. So I think Nick Kurtz is absolutely a better bet for power. Overall offensive production, Vladimir Guerrera has had stretches as good or better than what Nick Kurtz did last season

if you're looking at like Wobah. Nick Kurtz had a 419 Wobah. Vladimir Guerrera had a stretch from like last July to this May where he had a 422 Wobah. He's going to drive in a bunch of runs. He's going to score a decent amount of runs. It just doesn't translate enough to fancy, Chris. It's so annoying because I agree with you.

He's a really, really good hitter. It feels like Vlad should perennially be a 300, 30 home run hitting 100, 100. But we rarely get that from him. Yeah. So it's... No. That's why I think his average finish, 35.5. To me, Vlad Jr. is like a third round pick next year.

Yeah, I think that's probably right. and I think he has borderline first round upside but I think his floor is probably like our fifth or six round players I'll probably rank Nick Kurtz round two three turn Vladimir Herr maybe a round later I haven't gotten to the overall rankings yet that's just eyeballing

so I would rather have Nick Kurtz I think there is a safer elite skill but if Vlad goes out and hits 36 homers next season and hits 3.30 I'm not expecting that, but it wouldn't totally shock me. He absolutely has that skill set. He hit 323 two years ago.

Yeah. He had 30 homers two years ago. Yeah, I think he's capable of it too. I just, for some reason, I just don't know why it doesn't happen more consistently in the regular season. I don't know if it's a Rogers Center thing. They did those renovations a couple years ago. Two of the past three years, he hasn't performed well at home. He hits the ball on the ground a lot.

That's a big thing. He routinely underperforms his expected stats. So we can't even point to that. say, oh, he's going to be better because he does that almost every year. He just underperforms what Staccast says that he should be doing. So I'm very good player, but I think probably a third round player for me on Vlad Jr. heading into next season. The number seven for his basement was Matt Olson, the batting average bounce back,

but he has been right at 29 homers two years in a row after hitting 54 back in 2023. That pretty much looks like the outlier for him. Still hits the ball extremely hard. surprised he didn't have more than 29 home runs this past season. He's also the most reliable player in terms of health in fantasy. He has not missed a game in four years, which is unheard of. Yeah, the only thing about that is that helps prop up the counting stats. Yeah, he's an accumulator, which have not been great the past couple of years. They've been very good. I mean, 98 runs,

95 RBI, but in 162 games, the kind of thing where it's like, yeah, one IL stint where he missed. This is 15 games. And all of a sudden, you're talking about barely cracking 90 in either. True. And that would be a fairly normal amount of missed time for any other player. And so it does, you said it. He's an accumulator. He's a very good hitter.

I think he's a step below some of the other guys at the position, especially since it's now been, you know, four of the five, the three of the four years he's been in Atlanta has been 34, 29, and 29, So he's a good source of power. Maybe not an elite one. He's going to be 32 next year. It just, he's sixth, I think, for me. Yeah, he's sixth for me.

We haven't mentioned one of the guys ahead of him, Bryce Harper, who has his own concerns. I just think Bryce Harper has more ways to impact your fantasy team. Yeah, I think he's a little bit better on a per game basis, but Harper is also kind of like the opposite of Olson in terms of reliability. You're going to miss some time. Not that he misses a ton of time, but you have to pencil in.

Harper is going to miss 25 to 30 games. I mean, it happens almost every season with him. Hasn't played more than 145 since 2019. Yep. Again, that was Bryce Harper and Matt Olson. Before that, we were talking about the number eight first baseman was Freddie Freeman. He averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game. That was tied for eighth at the position.

And it looks like age has caught up to Freeman the past two years. He's obviously not the player he once was. He's also dealt with a lot of injuries the past two seasons. but he has been consistent during that stretch between a 280 and 295 batting average 22 to 24 homers 80 runs 90 RBI I would say that's probably the expectation at this point Chris

but also at 36 there is a chance he can decline a little bit more yeah in Freeman's case I feel like it was kind of a tale of three seasons we don't often it's usually a tale of two seasons it was like first two months middle two months unbelievable first two months He was saying like 360 at the end of May.

Then he was just dreadful in June and July, had a sub 600 OPS in June, only 678 in July. Then he was really good in August and September again. I have no idea what he's done in the postseason. Nothing, really. One home run. Yeah, we are closer to Freddie Freeman's last season as a fantasy relevant player than his first.

but I also don't think we should let that impact us too much. Like he is going to hit for a very strong batting average. He's going to hit 20 plus homers, probably going to get pretty close to 90 runs in RBI. I know the runs have been a little lower the past couple of seasons, but I think there's still plenty of room for that to bounce back. He'll still a handful of bases. He's really solid.

And I think the difference between him and Matt Olson is more just what your team. team needs at that point in the draft. If you need a little more power, take Matt Olson. If you need batting average, take Freddie Freeman. But I think those two guys are very, very similar in my expectations overall. And I think both are still very reliable in points leagues as well. They were both right at 3.1 fantasy points for game. Olson walks a lot.

Freeman still makes a lot of contact. Although, I did want to mention, again, coinciding with this age for Freeman, his K rate jumped up to 20%, which was his highest since 2016. His zone contact dropped from 83% to 79%. So that could just be another sign of, all right, getting a little bit older, that's slowing down a little bit.

So just be very careful. If the ADP on Freeman is, I don't know, fourth or fifth round, probably worth it, but, you know, floor might just drop out. So be careful there. Let's move a little bit quicker through these final fours. names Yandy Diaz, 3.1 fantasy points per game tied for eighth of the position. He finished

ninth in Roto and Category Leagues. Big bounce back year, hit 300, 25 homers, 83 RBI.B.I. He also enjoyed hitting in George Steinbrenner Field. He had huge numbers at home this year. 18 of his 25 homers, 9-11 OPS. The race will be back in Tropicana Field next season, where Yandy Diaz has hit well, but not that well, as he did in Steinbrenner Field. So I think he's solid Chris, he kind of feels like one of these players. We talk about this more with pitchers, where you buy him when the price is suppressed when he's coming off a down year. Maybe you sell when he's coming off one of these better seasons. I do wonder just because there's kind of some inherent ageism in the fantasy football fantasy baseball community, whether his price will get

too high. Also, we cannot take as a given that he will be on the race next season. Sure. Like his contract goes up. Final year? Final year? He's got a club option for 2027. Okay. But I would very, very much doubt that one of Yandi Diaz or Brandon Lowe will be on the team next year.

And one of those guys is out of the picture because I think they're both making like 10 million next year. And that's just can't count in the race to pay someone $10 million, especially when there's multiple guys like that. So I would guess Lowe is more likely to be traded. but it could be Yondi Diaz. He's going to be 34 next year. They have to take that into account as well that the bottom could just fall out for him for age reasons, not production reasons, in which case they'd be left holding the bag. So I think he's fine.

He's the number 13 first baseman for me next season. But if you want to take him ahead of Tyler Soderstrom because he's a little more of a sure thing, and then obviously Ben Rice and Salvador Perez, you're probably taking his catchers. He's more like 11. I think he could be a top 10 first baseman pretty easily, yeah. Especially in a points league too. His skill set still plays very well there.

Just a 14% strikeout rate this past season for Yandy DS. The number 10 first baseman was Vinnie Pee. Baby! Vinny Pass Guantino, three fantasy points per game. That was 11th at the position. Finally stayed healthy. He put it all together. 32 homers, 113 RBI, both of those careers.

your highs for him. He did sacrifice some strikeouts to get more out of that power and leaned into the pole air rate. I would expect him to maybe take a little bit of a step back here, Chris, but I like the improvements that he made consciously trying to hit for power. I think he can probably come close to 30 home runs again next season. Yeah, I mean, the thing with Vinio Pasco Antino is because he's a bad athlete and because he has a very pull-oriented swing in a tough ballpark for power. He wasn't hitting for batting average anyway when he was hitting, you know, striking out 12% of the time or whatever was in 20203 and 2024.

He's been a consistent 250 to 260 hit of the past three seasons. That 295 average when he was a rookie, that's a long time ago at this point. I don't think we can expect that. I think he is a low Babbitt player. And so if that's going to be the case, you'd rather have him just focus on power. And if he's going to hit 260, I'd rather it come with 30. homers than you know the 24 that he was on pace for in 2024 or whatever so i think that's fine i think that's a good trade off he's going to drive in a lot of runs it's like a three category profile in a

five by five context but it's kind of two i think home runs and rbi will be good batting average and runs will just be kind of replacement level yeah and then obviously you get no stolen bases yeah and he's surprisingly he's good in a points league he's not kind of an elite stand out because he just doesn't walk very much. He's a very aggressive hitter, but he also doesn't strike out very much. So, still totally fine. I think Vinnie P. a viable player

regardless of format for next year. If Josh Naylor goes back to being like a six to eight steel guy, there's not a big difference between these two guys. True. Yeah. The number 11 first baseman was Wilson Contreras. Say bye to catcher. He no longer has eligibility there. 2.8 fantasy points

per game tied for 14th at the position. He was solid. 257, 20 homers, 80 RBI, and 135 games. His season ended on the aisle with a strained right shoulder. You always have to factor in some kind of injury, I think, for Contreras. Just not nearly as exciting as he was at catcher for fantasy, Chris. He kind of feels more like a corner infielder than a starting first basement. Just eyeballing it, I don't think he's like a top 200 pick in drafts in 2025 or 2026.

I could see like the 150 to 2.000. 200 range as like a corner infield type. I could see. Yeah, I think I'd rather have, certainly Jonathan Aranda, just the very good batting average he showed last season. I know there are some playing time concerns. I'd rather have Kyle Manzardo

and just at least hope that there's a little more upside there. I would take Christian Walker ahead of Wilson Contreras. So that kind of puts him at the end or maybe start of a tier where you've got like, Nolan Shanuel and Alec Bohm and Spencer Steer and Andrew Vaughn and just guys who are... I would definitely take Contreras over those guys, I think. I might take Vaughn just because I think there's a hint of upside there, but none of those guys are exciting.

Like even as a corner infielder, every one of those guys feels like settling. And I think Wilson Contreras is a guy you settle on as a corner infielder even. I just pulled up Scott's rankings because I know he... At least in Roto. Maybe in points he was a little better than that, but yeah. Pull up Scott's rankings just to see because I know he ranks a little bit deeper at the positions. He ranked the top 20 and he has Contreras at 18 just after Aranda and Stier, just ahead of Alec Berlinson and Kyle Manzardo.

Yeah, I have him 19, so it's very similar. The number 12 first basement was Tyler Soderstrom, 2.8 fantasy points per game tied for 14th at the position as well. Nice little breakout in his first. full season. 276, 25 homers, 93 RBI. Chipped in, eight steals as well. Solid plate discipline. He hit well against lefties.

I think there might be another step forward for Soderstrom, Chris, if he can lower the ground ball rate at least a little bit. 49% kind of hinders your ability to hit for more power. Yeah, one thing I did really like from Tyler Sotom. And this is something we've talked a lot about is he had the early breakout. Then he slumped. And I remember you and I talked. talking about this maybe in June. Like, oh, I don't know. Did, did Tyler Stardstrom fake us out with that, with that big April? Well, then his two months months of the season, arguably, were, uh, or three of his, his three best months. Actually, might have been July, August and September. And August was probably his best. He had an OPS over 800, all three months, all three of those months. Strikeout remained very manageable. Um, that's what I like to see from a breakout. I want to see the adjustment. The adjustment. The adjustment.

to the adjustment and then what they do when the league catches up to them. And in Tyler Sotom's case, it seems like he figured out what the league was doing and got it right. So that's a really good sign. There is still some meat on the bones. He, like you said, hits the ball on the ground a lot.

Doesn't pull the ball very often in the air either. So he's not really maximizing his power. But great ballpark, good lineup, potentially great lineup. Yeah. Were they top 10 in run scored this year? I don't go pretty close if not close to it but that lineup feels pretty good I mean they got Brent Rooker

and maybe a bounce back Lawrence Butler but obviously Nick Kurtz is right in the middle of there you have Soderstrom you got DeVries right is on their team yeah I doubt we'll see him this year I don't know if we'll see him this year but he's he's around big upside

September if anything so yeah that should be a very good lineup I like Tyler Sotom's just fine. They were 12th and run scored this year. Okay.

He was, I have him as the number 12 catcher, take out Ben Rice and, or number 12 first baseman, take out Ben Rice and Salvador Perez. Sotom's number 10. A little confusing because Sotom was also used to be a catcher. Yeah. And man, wouldn't it be awesome if he still was?

Yes, that would be great. And you know what? We didn't even mention Shay Langalears. You know, that's another male of the lineup bat just gave them 31 homers. You know, the athletics. While they are a rebuilding team, the pitching is not good.

The lineup? Line-up is good, man. And Jacob Wilson, like, yeah, they've got some pieces. Let's wrap up here with a quick look at the early 2026 first base rankings. We'll also have an FBT Express episode that drops Wednesday morning looking specifically at this as well. So taking a look at Chris's first base ranks, we removed Ben Rice and Salvador Perez because you should probably play those guys a catcher. Number one and two, which we've alluded to throughout the show, Nick Kurtz and Vlad Jr. You know, some people might have questions about whether or not they would do that.

But Nick Kurtz is the kind of new, flashy toy. And Vlad Jr. is kind of the steady Eddie, as we talked about. I think it's going to be Kurtz by a wide margin, ultimately. And then like a wide margin might mean eight picks in ADP. But when you're operating at that level, I think that's, there's going to be some pretty clear separation between the two of them. I think Kurtz winds up being a one, two, turn player and Vlad is probably a two three turn player. Yep. I think in 15 team leagues especially, Kurtz is going to be one two two.

And I think I'll rank them both a little bit lower than that. Scott and I did the top two rounds for next season last week and I ranked my top 24. I had Kurtz at 22, so a little bit lower and then I sounds right. I didn't have Vlad in my top 24 but he'd probably be like a mid third round picks and I like that. Your three through seven at first base you have Pete Alonzo, Bryce Harper, Raphael Devers, Matt Olson, Freddie Free So you mentioned this earlier. It's kind of a tier of kind of aging players, depending on what skill set you need.

Bryce Harper is the one name we haven't really talked too much about. He had a solid season this year, still had 27 homers, 12 steals, had 261. I thought it was very interesting that the Phillies president of baseball operations, Dave Dombowski. There was a quote at his press conference where he kind of admitted that Bryce Harper is no longer an elite player. He said something like, we'll see if he gets back to being elite or just good. It was kind of a weird quote. Although, I don't know. I can't really dispute it.

I don't think Harper is an elite player anymore either. He's also 33 years old, so he's getting up there. So what are your thoughts on Bryce Harper for next year? One thing I will say is, is any time that has been the discussion around Bryce Harper? Like, are we sure this guy's an elite player? He tends to answer that pretty resoundingly. I know it's asking a lot for him to do that at 33 or 34, whatever he's going to be next year. But Hall of Famers don't tend to age the same as everyone else.

You know, Freddie Freeman was still hitting 330 like two years ago, right? And I wonder if Dave Dombrovsky kind of did that to maybe light a fire under Bryce Harper, you know? A little psychological ploy. Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me. I don't know. Like Bryce Harper had a down year this year. It was probably his worst year, I don't know, since 2016. His lowest OPS since 2016, his lowest batting average since 2019.

The underlying numbers don't suggest there was really anything wrong. His underlying numbers were actually stronger in terms of Ex-WOBA than they were in 2024. He's got a weird profile as a hitter because he chases a ton and he whiffs a ton. But he doesn't really strike out that much. 21% strikeout rate last year. He's just, he's selectively aggressive, I guess, is the way to put it. Like when he's in a two strike count, he can shorten up a bit and make contact, but he doesn't find himself in those situations very often.

He makes a lot of damage when he makes contact. And the other thing about Bryce Harper is there are more ways for him to impact your team than Matt Olson has. And probably Freddie Freeman to it. this point because he's still 12 bases this year and he's been double digits more often than not in the past half decade and you know he's going to score a decent amount of runs which you can't necessarily count on some of the other guys to do and he's a pretty good bet for 30 plus homers and a good batting average i just that's the reason i have him at number four behind pete olson

pto is kind of the top end of that tier is just i think there are more ways for his production to go right um then like freeman has like one outlier skill really good contact skills matt olson kind of more of a compiler i think harper at least in a roto context there are more avenues for him to become a true five category contributor yeah i don't know uh but i think you can put four through seven harper devors alons olson and freeman in basically any order and i wouldn't really argue with any of them. I think I would take Devers ahead of Harper.

Sure. On a pregame basis, I do think Harper is probably better than Olson and Freeman. The one problem with this tier is that everybody else, you know, Freeman has had some stuff, but they're all pretty reliable. He's only messed 15 games the last two years. Yeah, they're all pretty reliable in terms of health.

So that's like, that's fair. That's one knock on Harper. You know, he hasn't hit 100. He's only hit 100 in runs or RBI once. in the past five full seasons. So, I mean, you know, there was, I think, a Tommy John surgery in there. And so obviously that kind of derailed things.

But, you know, he just regularly misses time. The counting stats aren't great. So I don't know. Well, I would love to see Bryce Harper return to elite for him. But I don't know if that is in the cards at this point in his career. You're 8 through 12 at first base. You have Josh Naylor, Vinie Pass Quantino, Tyler Soderstrom at Yandy Diaz,

and Spencer Torkelson, who we mentioned earlier, but we haven't talked much about who is right smack in the middle of his prime, 26 years old, big bounce back season, 31 home runs this past year, has exactly 31 homers in two of the past three years. The question is, how will he follow this season up? The last time he hit 31 homers, he only hit 10 the next year, and he got demoted to the minors. And he's a guy who does not necessarily have many ways to impact your fantasy team.

Spencer Torkelson kind of has to hit 30 homers to have any value. If he hits 25 homers, I mean, that's fine. That's not terrible, but that's probably going to mean he has 70 runs and 70 RBI, you know? It's weird that he hit 31 homers

and played 155 games, but only had 82 runs and 78 RBI. Yeah, well, this is one thing where not to sound too much like a fuddy-duddy, but there are, aren't a lot of productive outs in Spencer Torkelson's game. You know, he's not putting the ball in play. He's not, there's not a lot of singles. Like that, that's one key distinction between him and Josh Naylor where, you know, they were both like 770, 780 OPS bats. They might have actually

had like the same exact OPS because Torkelson was at 789. Nailer was probably not far from that, right? Page is loading slow. I think he was just over 800 this year. I got to Bo Nailer's page. That's not helpful. Josh Nailer had an 816 OPS. Okay, so Nailer was better, but it's 25 points or whatever. That's not a huge gap. It's just because Josh Nailer makes so much contact,

because he's hitting 290 instead of 240. Even though the overall offensive impact might not be that different, Nailer's just going to be a better run producer because there are going to be more of those situations where he's putting the ball in play with runners in scoring position and creating runs that way. So that's the biggest thing where Torcosan's just, man, if he has a down power year, he might not give you anything. And there's a lot of guys like that in that next tier.

You know, Michael Bush is not that dissimilar. I know he walks a decent amount. Manzardo kind of just hoping he takes a big step forward. Jonathan Ronda, different type of player. He's got his own limitations maybe as a power source, but should hit for a very high batting average. But yeah, it's, I don't want to be the last one

to draft my starting first baseman in most leagues, I think. Yeah, so Torkelson two years ago finished as the 69th overall player in 2023. This year he finished 87th, and then the year in between, he was completely unusable. So his upside is like a top 70 player.

His downside is that he's someone you drop. So where does that fall in ADP? 150, something like that. Yeah, I think 150-ish. Probably. And he feels more like a fallback option, but it really would not feel great if he was my starting first basement.

I think kind of everyone outside of the top 10 is probably a fallback option in a lot of ways. I would imagine it's probably that way for a lot of positions, maybe outside of shortstop. They are the players you're falling back on if you didn't take them early. So, yeah, I guess. By definition, right? We are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank.

Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again later this week. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.