Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 First Base & Third Base Tiers! Plus Dodgers Bullpen Additions & Blue Jays Sign Santander! (1/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 22, 2025

Before we get into tiers, let's start with the news! First up, the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott and appear close on Kirby Yates (2:53)! ... Are the Dodgers ruining baseball (12:06)? ... The Blue Jays landed Anthony Santander (18:49). ... Pete Alonso will not be returning to the Mets (23:00). ... Let's get into First Base tiers, starting with the first round (33:00)! ... Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman slide into the second round (35:50). ... Are we targeting Matt Olson or Pete Alonso (37:18)? ... The next best things tier offers solid starting options (41:58). ... Who are fallback options at first base (47:29)? ... Let's get into third base tiers, starting with Jose Ramirez (55:21). ... The elite tier has talent but injury concerns (57:08). ... There's only one name in the near elite tier (1:00:24)! ... There seems to be some disagreement in the next best things tier (1:02:22). ... Who are the fallback options at third base (1:06:01)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. There are tears of joy. There are tears of sadness.

But also, there are Scott White's positional tears. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, January, I am Frank Stamphle, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we have a podcast. Many look forward to every offseason. We are taking a closer look at Scott's first base and third base tiers as the kickoff of Tears Week. We'll talk about all the positions and then starting pitchers

will kind of bleed over into next week. Plus there was a ton of news. The Dodgers are ruining baseball. Anthony Santander has a new home and much more. But let's actually just start with the news because there is a lot of. lot to get to. And at some point, I do want to talk about these tears. So a big weekend for the Dodgers. They signed Roki Sasaki on Friday, and then Tanner Scott on Sunday. And they appear close on Kirby

Yates. So we did an emergency podcast for Roki Sasaki. You can go back and check that out. Let's try and figure out the Dodgers bullpen. Tanner Scott to the Dodgers on a four-year, $72 million deal. Shocker, the deal includes a $20 million signing bonus and $21 million in deferred money. Tanner Scott is 30 years old and he has evolved into one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Lefty, righty, it doesn't matter. He is one of the best. Now, the Dodgers are also apparently in serious discussions with Kirby Yates. Bob Nightingale already reported that the deal is done. We haven't got that information from anybody else, but it does appear to be close. Just posted one of the best reliever seasons in baseball

did Kirby Yates. He's now entering his age 38 season. But last year with the Rangers, a 117, ERA, a 0.83 whip, over 12K per 9, and one of the largest saves totals in all of baseball. So, Scott, we will start with you. You will get the first crack at figuring out the Dodgers bullpen because it could feature Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott, Blake Trinen. Oh, and on top of all of this, apparently Michael Kopeck is going to miss the first month of the season. But he'll be back at some point.

So there you go. Well, the first thing I want to say is that for every marquee free agent, the Dodgers sign, I think, wow, they really like Michael Conforto. Because it's clear at this point they can get whoever they want, and they got him to fill one of their outfield spots. But that's a different matter for a different day. Was he the first player they signed, or was it Blake Snow? I don't remember.

I want to say Snow was first. I think so. I could look it up, but I'm talking. So one of you look it up. Yeah, I think it's going to be a mess. Even when before the Kirby Yates news was announced, which it's not even official yet, so I don't want to jump the gun on that. But hypothetically, Kirby Yates is part of this bullpen too. And even before that was announced with just the Tanner Scott news for as big dollar amount as he signed for four years, $72 million, extra money on top of that with the signing bonus, right?

I wasn't convinced that he was just going to be the guy. Maybe he would be. He had spent, you know, parts of the last three seasons as a closer, but never, he was never the closer from start to finish for any of those three seasons. And he didn't finish last year. I traded to the Padres and they stuck with Robert Suarez in the Rotainer. Scott was one of the set up in him. So it's not like he's this rock solid tried and true closer.

He has a very high walk rate, even with the 175 ERA last year, 4.5 walks per nine innings. And it's been higher than that in the past. He struggles with control at times. So just given the way Dave Roberts has operated since Kenley Jansen left, even if he started out with Tanner Scott as his closer, I think there'd be a time when Scott was just walking a bunch of guys and he got frustrated with him and went with another hot hand for a while. And my thinking was kind of, okay, as much trust as Dave Roberts showed in Blake Trinon

during their World Series run last year. Ultimately, I kind of felt like Blake Trinen would be the winner, the one to have in fantasy. And if you compare his and Scott's numbers side by side last year, I think Trinning comes out ahead. I think he had the better year overall. But then there's this possibility of them signing Kirby Yates, who had the best year of any of these guys last year. So maybe he should just be the closer. But again, the way Dave Roberts is operated as Kenley Jansen left. It's more like he gets, he gets fixed.

fixated on one guy for a while, but he's happy to change at the drop of a hat. And so I don't think he would make it clear before the season started who he wants to go with. And I don't think we could get too attached to anyone in season either. So I'm kind of just going to leave this for everybody else on draft day. Assuming Yates is there, and it's Yates, Scott, and Blake Trinen, I think those are the clear front runners. but of course Michael Kopeck could factor in after a month. We could see Evan Phillips. I mean, Alex Vescia was one of the best relievers in baseball.

I was like, yeah. This is a team that legitimately has, I think, six closer caliber relievers, maybe seven. I would say so. Graterall is really good too. And, you know, I'm not going to say they're all going to get the exact same number of saves. Maybe one will lead the way with like 21 or something. But I just think it'll be very frustrating over the course of the season.

We won't ever feel totally comfortable. that any guy is the guy. So I'm just going to avoid it, let somebody else reach for their favorite. If one of those three happens to fall, Scott Yates or Trinan, most likely Trinan, I would think, in a deeper league where I know saves are going to be scarce. Maybe I'll make a play for him late. But that's as close as I'm going to get to touching the Dodgers bullpen, I think. Here is how I ranked it.

You can tell me if I'm way off base or not. I have Kirby Yates 230th overall. Tanner Scott, 231st, and then the rest of the guys outside of the top, like 350. Chris, can you pull up just your RP rankings and let us know kind of where that falls in the higher archie? 23 and 24. So behind the Ben, Joyce, Jordan Romano, Porter Hodge guys, and ahead of some guys who haven't signed yet. So like Carlos Hestavaz might jump them. Could I see a scenario where one of these guys gets 40 saves and is a top five closer next year? Absolutely.

The Dodgers are going to win like 107 games in 2025. At least. This is an outrageously dominant team and you want great relievers on outrageously dominant teams. The problem is on any given night, Dave Roberts could go to one of five to seven viable late inning high leverage. options. And it wouldn't be a surprise. I mentioned Bruce Dorgaradol. He's actually out till I think the mid part of the season. He had shoulder surgery. But like, Copac, it doesn't sound like he can't pitch. It sounds like they want to be careful with him, which is part of why they are apparently signing Kirby Yates is to have a little more depth. This is a team that while they have enviable depth in

the rotation, they don't necessarily have a lot of guys you can count on going deep. into games consistently. And so we know when they get to the postseason, they're going to have a short leash with them. They use these guys a lot in the postseason. I think that's a big part of the Tanner Scott signing is he's just been unbelievably durable. I think it's, is it three straight seasons

with at least 70 innings for Tanner Scott, which is too straight. Two straight. That's a number you don't see very much. And I'm sure in 2022, he faced a ton of batters. He was just much less efficient. so he didn't get to that. Yeah, it was close.

22, 289 batters in this past year 294. So, yeah, the point is, I think Tanner Scott's ability to go multiple innings and be durable played a big part and why they were so interested in him. And you would think the guy who is now the third highest reliever in baseball for a team we expect to win 108 games at least

would be a high-end fantasy reliever. And I just can't bring myself to, do it, especially if they sign Kirby Yates. If the Kirby Yates thing falls apart, I would be comfortable ranking Tanner Scott in the top 15, but probably not too much higher than that, because, you know, you can go back to Kenley Janssen. Right.

No, I'd rather. None of these guys are Kenley Janssen. I'd rather have Porter Hodge, Lucas Erseg. I'm saying even if the Yates thing falls through, I just think, I just think it's going to be, like I said, a headache all season long. You're never going to be totally comfortable with it, no matter how many saves in a row the current frontrunner is.

I preemptively ranked Tanner Scott as my 17th closer before the Kirby Yates signing that would have put him behind Erseg, behind Jeff Hoffman, behind Trevor McGill, and ahead of names like David Bednar, Alexis Diaz. That kind of feels like a tear break where, you know, I do have some questions about the Bednar's and Diaz and Jordan Romano's of the world. guys like that. Obviously there would be questions with Tanner Scott if he was the only guy, but he obviously is super talented and pitching for one of the best teams in baseball.

But the Kirby Yates thing does kind of throw things off a little bit here. So we'll wait until that's completely finalized. I guess we can address this again. See if we get any Dave Roberts quotes. I don't see why he would tip his hand as much as we would like that to happen for fantasy. From just a gamesmanship perspective, why would he? Right? Like going into the six, seventh, eighth, ninth innings of games and opposing teams don't know which relievers are coming out, that is a huge advantage for the Dodgers. So again, it's annoying for fantasy, but I totally understand why they would want to kind of keep it a secret or play matchups or do whatever they want to do, just from a real-life baseball

perspective. Other, just one other thing on the Dodgers, I just want to address this. I kind of facetiously mentioned up at the top that the Dodgers are ruining baseball. They have the super team thing. Gotta be honest, guys. I think it's a little bit misguided, and I think it's a little bit soft. because for all the other teams in baseball, I mean, it's January 22nd.

You had two and a half months to sign Tanner Scott to sign Kirby Yates if you wanted to do that. Nobody got it done. The Roki Sasaki thing is a little bit more annoying because any team could have signed him and in fact, the Padres did offer more money but he just wanted to go to the Dodgers. So that's a little bit more annoying.

Apparently the Blue Jays offered the most money to Roki Sasaki, but the numbers were so minor there. Like the difference between 10.5 million and seven million. It's a lot of money to me. Yeah. But if you think like Roki Sasaki, his future earnings are $300 million, potentially more, that doesn't matter.

Yeah. He's just going to go where he wants to go. The daughters keep doing this signing bonus thing, which hasn't really been part of baseball free agency. I know it's been a thing in other sports. And I just wonder if that, I mean, at this point, it seems like players are choosing the Dodgers even when they're not offering the most money. So that's frustrating too. That feels like, well, teams just don't have a chance to compete, really.

But it is baseball. And like, as I talked about last week, we can be nearly 100% confident the Dodgers are going to make the playoffs, but we have no idea what's going to happen once they get there. A sample of five or seven games is just so small that anything can happen. People say this all the time about super teams and other sports have not been ruined by super teams either. In fact, I think it has made other sports more interesting, right? People want to take down this quote unquote super team. And everyone's talking about baseball right now too and the Dodgers kind of ruining the sport. I think it's good.

I think it's good for the sport. Frankly, they're going to have a target on their back. I like it. I think you can reach a point where there is. is too much talent on one team. And maybe we're at that point with the Dodgers. Like the Roki Sasaki thing is like, it probably would have been better for him to sign with the Padres

just from like a competitive balance standpoint. But also like what are what are we supposed to do? Like I saw someone said like, would you be okay if there was no 2027 baseball season? If there was a salary cap. It's like it was almost 50-50. and it's like, do you people not actually like baseball? Because that's dumb. That would be difficult to recover from.

And also just like like Frank said, Kirby Yates is available to sign with anyone and has been for two and a half months. Tanner Scott was available to sign with anyone. Like I understand as someone whose favorite team had Tanner Scott as their closer, why you would be hesitant to give out the fifth biggest contract for a reliever ever. Like I did not enjoy the Tanner Scott experience as a Marlins fan personally. But if we're going to complain about it, the problem is not the Dodgers. The problem is that the Red Sox and the Yankees and the Cubs. The Cubs.

Who have the, have the Cubs signed to anyone this offseason? They traded for Kyle Tucker. They traded for Kyle Tucker, but have they signed like what like the pirates? Vidal Bruhan. They signed Vidal Bruhan. The pirates have Paul. Skeen's who is healthy and the Sayyong favorite right now, which means the Pirates rebuild is over. Like, you need to push your chips in right now.

And the Pirates signed Isaiah Kynar Philefa. Like, what, like, I'm not going to complain about the Dodgers when that's happening. Like, the pirates, you haven't been spending any money lately, so you should have something saved up. You couldn't go get Tanner Scott. The complaining about the Dodgers, the Dodgers are not the problem. The Dodgers, the problem is that nobody else is trying. It shouldn't be this easy for the Dodgers to sign everyone. You know, the Yankees are allowed to do a deferred money deal.

It's like, oh, it's so unfair. They're doing different. The Yankees have never deferred money to anyone as far as I know. Maybe try it out. See what happens. I don't know. But like the complaining about the Dodgers, like I'm not happy about it. I think it would be better if these guys signed with other teams,

but the other teams have to try. Yeah, and look, we've talked about the Orioles all offseason two and the fact they chose to sign Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sagano instead of paying up for a Blake Snell. Like, pay up for Blake Snell early on in the off season. Like, I don't know what to tell you. Also, I will preemptively just apologize for this episode going long because I let us down that rabbit hole

because I did want to get that off my chest because frankly, everyone's complaining and I don't like it. I think it's kind of soft. Let's take our first break. and when we return, we will talk about the Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's continue on news and notes.

The Blue Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year $92.5 million deal, which includes a club option for a sixth year. There is also an opt-out after the third year, which the Blue Jays can void by making this a six-year, $110 million deal. Santander is coming off a career year where he hit 44 home runs, 102 RBI, 814 OPS. Of course, he did only hit 235. He finished as the 31st overall player in Roto.

He was the 18th best hitter in head-to-head points leagues. Now, he is going to a middle of the part, middle of the kind of pack ballpark with Rogers Center there in terms of home runs. He'll hit in the middle of the order. He does not have good career numbers in Rogers Center. I don't know, Scott. I'm just not really feeling this one.

Like, if you have to use a top 100 pick on Santander, I don't know. I just, I don't really feel like doing that. How do you feel about this? I don't know. I don't really share your sentiments there. I feel like his, you know, we're only going off NFBC ADP to this point. And NFBC is notorious for deflating the value of free agents.

Like it's, it's like there's some fear they're not going to sign at all because they haven't signed yet. But I had always had Santander as a top 20 outfielder close to a top 75 player overall. he's to Roto. And I think his ADP should get to that point now that he has signed. I don't think going to the Toronto really changes anything for him. It plays similarly overall, and he is a switch hitter to Baltimore. In fact, Stackcast expected home runs would have had him with two more home runs in Toronto playing every game in Toronto last year than if he had played every game at Camden Yards.

So I think, I don't think anything really changes. for him specifically. It's just he has a team now and hopefully, or I would expect his ADP to go because of that. I guess my feeling on the situation is that, you know, Santander just hit the 44 home runs. His expected home runs, according to Stack has 36.6. And his two years prior to this, he was 28 and 33 home runs. So I expect him to regress. I think we probably get low 30s home runs with like a bad batting average. and his ADP the two years before this was 136 and 127. So I don't know, Chris. It just feels like...

Each additional year of him doing this creates more certainty that he can do it again. I just look at, okay, his average 35 home runs the past three years. That's about what I'm going to expect for him. Yeah, a low batting average, but 35 home runs are hard to come by. I think it goes without saying you don't expect 44 home runs again. but that's if he was if you expected 44 home runs again you'd be drafting him as a top 50 player and that's not happening so i i think there's plenty of room for regression it's funny he wasn't like a significantly different player in 2023 than 2024 overall like batting average is a little

lower because he traded a bunch of doubles for a bunch of home runs basically i think he had one more extra base hit in 24 than he had in 2023 despite 16 more home runs if I'm doing the quick math in my head there. So look, I think you know what you're going to get a pretty poor batting average, probably in the 240 to 250 range, 30 to 35 homers and a bunch of RBI. I think that's all reasonable to expect. It's not like sexy. He's probably not going to repeat what he did last year.

But there's value in what I think is a pretty stable skill set. I think I am more likely to take him in a head-to-head points league too just because he doesn't strike out all that much. He doesn't walk that much either. But having that better than league average strikeout rate does help in points leagues last year. 3.2 fantasy points per game really good for Anthony Santander. So for me, more likely to take him in a points league. Sounds like you guys are fine taking him inside of the top 100, which is where the ADP is right now. We did get a bunch of Mets news since last week as well.

The Mets are apparently not expected to resign Pete Alonzo. it sounds like the current plan is for Mark Vientos to slide over at first base. And one of Brett Beatty, Ronnie Maricio, Luis Anhelecuna, competing for the third base job, assuming the Mets don't sign someone else. Of course, they can go after a Bregman or make a trade, whatever it might be. I don't really know exactly where Pete Alonzo goes from here. There were some rumors of the Blue Jays. Not sure that makes sense now with Anthony Santander.

I think it still could. I mean, they could play him at D.H. and Santander in the office. field. It's doable. Vlad a third. They can do that too. We heard kind of whispers of the giants, the angels throughout the offseason. Obviously, the Mariners could use offense,

but they seem pretty content signing Donovan Solano to play first base for them. So what do you guys think? Like, where does Pete Alonzo end up at this point? He could still go back to the Mets theoretically. I have no idea. I mean, the, you know, the Red Sox have been linked to both Breggman and Alonzo, right, either one of which would require them to trade Tristan Kossis, it would seem, so that would require a second huge move.

And it just feels so late in the off season to shake things up that much. It could happen. You know, things went pretty late last off season, too. Big signings were happening during spring training still. And I do think it's notable that both Bregman and Alonzo or Boris, Scott Boris clients, and maybe he's overplaying his hand a little again. I don't know. but I don't I don't even really want to guess where Alonzo is going because I have no clue at this point.

All right. Well, go ahead, Chris. This is another one where it's just like if Alonso is going to sign like a two year $65 million contract with an opt out or whatever it ends up being like, like, hey, Cincinnati. Didn't you want to make the playoffs? Like wasn't that? A short term.

A short term deal like that. If you have room at first base or DH, you should be. and you're obviously looking to be competitive this year. And Pia Lanzo is better than about 20 teams first baseman or D.H. It seems like that's the kind of deal the Mets were trying to negotiate with them and needed to go for it. I kind of still think that's going to happen. It could have to settle for it. There are only so many teams that can accommodate us.

Back to the Mets is what I'm saying, yeah. Oh, okay. I know that they've quote unquote ruled it out a return. It still wouldn't surprise me if they get something done. and there were reports, I think either last season or the year before, that the Mets offered Piedelonzo a long-term extension. I think it was seven for 158, something like that, and he turned it down.

And then I think he hired Scott Bors after that. So he could have had $158 million ready to go. I mean, I guess that wasn't exactly what he was looking for, but, you know, he could have had that long-term extension. The Mets also re-signed Jesse Winker to a one-year $7.5 million deal that could reach $9 million with incentives. and Winker was solid last season. He did get a good amount worse

once he went from the Nationals to the Mets. This kind of just feels like NL only for now, maybe deep league, deeper mixed league stuff. The Nationals were playing him every day and the Mets weren't even playing him against every right-hander. So that's a big reason why his stock plummeted. Remember how he stole 14 bases

in 101 games with the Nationals? Didn't steal a single, didn't even attempt to steal with the Mets. That's zero. Yeah. Now, I'm more interested in whoever wins that third base job for the Mets, presuming they don't bring back Alonzo than I am in Winker. I'm going to be rooting for Ronnie Maricio because I think he has the best raw talent,

the most fantasy-friendly profile of the three. Remember when he came up two years ago, was out all last year with the torn ACL, but when he came up two years ago in his major league debut, he had the hardest hit ball for the Mets that season. I've heard that. 117 miles per hour And he was really aggressive As a base dealer down the stretch too

So I think there's a lot to like there With what they did with Mark Vientos last year And figuring out his approach And how to make that work You know, the big knock on Mauricio Has been plate discipline So, you know, it didn't work for prep 80 They never haven't quite figured out

How to make that work. But Maricio's got a ton of talent It's just the approach has never been good. So yeah, I I'm interested to see him get an opportunity. Remember, he missed all last year recovering from a torn ACL. Yeah, we did get non-Dodgers reliever news as the Mets signed A.J. Minter to a two-year,

$22 million deal, a name you could look at in Stapes Plus Hold Leagues. Obviously, the Mets should be competitive this upcoming season, and A.J. Minter is a talented reliever. And one more, the athletics signed Jose LeClerc to a one-year $10 million deal, and it appears that he will set up for Mason Miller. Please drop your grievance against us, MLBPA. Yeah, it felt like a lot. One year, 10 million for Jose LeClerc, but, you know. Look at us.

We're spending money. Yeah. We love spending money. The Hall of Famers were announced. Congrats to the 2025 class. Ituro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, both of those first year on the ballot. And then Billy Wagner, his last year on the ballot does get into the Hall of Fame. And, of course, there was one who did not vote for Ichero.

I probably shouldn't have brought this up. because these guys were kind of talking about it beforehand. Not that I want to fire you up or anything, Scott. But, yeah, Ichiro, not unanimous. You're not unanimous. And you know what? It doesn't really matter. By rule, it makes no difference whether you're unanimous or not.

It's just you're in or you're out. And when you get 400 people voting for something, they're always going to be these outlier cases. That's why you have so many people voting for it to absorb the outlier cases. But he's still in the Hall of Fame. You know, there's only all the amazing players in baseball history. Only one has ever been unanimous. And it's Mariano Rivera.

That's the dumb thing. Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. So, like, just chill. It's not a big deal that he's not. Like, 99.7% of Hall of Fame voters had him in. And the other 0.3% is statistically insignificant. So it's fine. It's okay.

This is how voting works. That's it. That's all I'm going to say. I could go on longer, but we're 27 minutes in. That's true. All right. Two years left for Andrew Jones. I hope he gets in the Hall of Fame.

He deserves it. Lastly, it is with heavy hearts that we talk about Bob Euker, rest in peace, to one of the legendary broadcasting goats, if we're being honest. Mr. Baseball, 90 years old, he spent 54 years in the radio broadcast booth for the Milwaukee Brewer. He's been there since 1971. Of course, he was in Major League, the movie as well. One of the funniest comedic performances in cinematic history. He is so good in Major League

and just one of the great characters in baseball history. Yeah, growing up, I honestly, I knew him more from the movies than obviously the Brewers is because I wasn't old enough I didn't realize that. And obviously, as you get older, you realize, ah, okay, this guy is, you know, amazing and legendary for what he did for the Milwaukee Brewers. And actually, I have his last home run call here

on a Jackson Trio Grand Slam. So let's take a listen. Get the left and... Yeah, that'll be. part of the rotation once we get in season. Oh my goodness gracious player of the night. Rest and peace to one of the best, Bob Yucer. Let's jump into the first and third base tiers. Here we are almost 30 minutes into the podcast. And this is what you came here for. So again, it says 10 to 12 minute mark. Yeah. I did tell you guys before. I'm like, man,

if we could really get through this news in 10 to 15 minutes, that would be fantastic. I'm sorry. That's on me. Part of it was my own fault. All right. First and third base tiers. Just a heads up that we are not doing deep dives on each and every player today. We'll save that for our position previews, which are coming out in early February. We're going to focus more on just general thoughts, where these players rank, how they tier, ADP, things like that. And all of Scott's positional tiers are live on the site, cbosports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. If you want to check those out, Scott, any quick words? Just on your thought process regarding tiers before we actually get into it.

Well, I will, you know, people have heard this spiel for so many years now that I don't know that I have to go through the whole process. But I do want to say something I did a little differently this year is that I noticed the past couple years. I felt like I was kind of losing the plot a little with tears because I was wanting, I wasn't liking when they were too. short because I wanted to give people a chance to actually see clearly which singular position they're supposed to take at this moment in the draft. And if every tier is one or two players long, then that kind of makes for too many choices, right? It doesn't really clarify the path for you. But that wasn't accurately reflecting what the tiers really are. So this year, I wanted to put the focus back on the tiers being firm in who believes.

longs where. And that means a lot of one and two player tiers at each of these positions, obviously, especially across the infield, the positions with fewer names overall. But I do think that's how they stack up. And that's why I think a lot of my drafts I'm going to end up with a lot of infielders early in the draft because those are where the standout, those are the positions where there are fewer standouts early is the infield position. All right. Let's jump into first based tiers and first up we have the first rounders tier which includes one name Vladimir guerrero junior and in fact based on ADP he's not even going in the first round but he still could wind up I think he's kind of a late first early second round he'll be in that mix on the turn according to the

fan grafts player raider Vlad finishes the 13th overall player in rhodo leagues last year he was the best first baseman in head to head points leagues and it was not close he averaged 3.6 fantasy points per game I mentioned the ADP in January is 14. Scott, why is Vlad a clear tier ahead of the next two, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman? Because I can't imagine a scenario where I take Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman ahead of Vladimir Guerrero. There is an argument, I think, to be made for putting them all three in the same tier.

Because obviously, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman, they've been first round caliber bats in the past. But Freddie Freeman specifically, I think, is beginning to show signs, very small signs, but clear enough signs of declining. And I don't think he needs to be in the first round conversation at all this year. Well, Vladimir Guerrero very plainly does. All right. Let's move on to the elite tier, which Chris.

One, sorry, I know we want to move on, but I do want to point out one thing that I had forgotten with Freddie Freeman, as we've talked about this offseason, which remember, he was away from the team for about 10 games. in late July, early August, because his son Max, I believe is his name, was dealing with a pretty scary sounding illness. When he left the team, he had an 888 OPS and was having a more typical Freddie Freeman season. The batting average down a little bit, but 287, nothing to scoff at. He struggled a little bit over the final two months, obviously had ankle surgery this off season as well. He was dealing with an ankle injury down the street.

So I think there's a pretty good chance Freddie Freeman bounces back this year. I'm not like planting my flag and saying it's definitely happening, but I'm certainly not avoiding Freddie Freeman. Since joining the Dodgers, he's dropped off as a home run hitter. I was denying it at first, but it's pretty clear now. He hasn't had a 30 homer season since joining the Dodgers, and twice it's been below 25 homers. What saved him the first two years is he became a base steal.

out of nowhere. It kind of dropped off with that last year. It went from 23 and 2023 to 9 last year. Maybe it had to do with the ankle partially, but I don't know. If he's going to be more like a 20 homer guy than a 30 homer guy and he's not going to be much help and stolen bases, I think he's out of the first round conversation. Well, we've already kind of talked about these two, but they are in the elite tier. That's Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman.

They've been fantasy mainstays for really the past decade, you know, either first or second round picks, you know, during that entire time, basically, outside of injuries, of course. I brought this up last week, and it kind of feels like Freeman represents just a tear break for all hitters in drafts. You know, really, Freddie Freeman and Trey Turner, they go at picks 24 and 25, based on ADP. And then after that, you get into Jackson Merrill and Catell Marte, and, you know, it's either guys that haven't really done it before. It just kind of feels like, you know, that's a clear tier break. You know, guys that maybe have first round upside, whatever that might be. I could be wrong about that, but Scott, what do you think? Does that, does that feel like a just

overall hitter tier break for you? Yeah, kind of the end of round two. Yeah. Yeah, I would say, I would say, and since we're only doing two positions tiers here, it'll be hard to, for you as the listener to, to notice this. But I think as we make our way through the positions here, you'll see that things open up in certain positions when we get to the next tier, the near elite tier, there's going to be more options there because there is kind of at the round two, three turn there, a drop off across the board within the hitter ranks.

The near elite tier includes Matt Olson and Pete Alonzo, two names that feel like they've been paired together for years now. it's similar skill sets, middling to low-end batting average, big power and counting stats from both guys. Again, Pete Alonzo is still a free agent, so we don't know exactly where he's going to be playing yet. Both had relative down seasons. Alonzo was the 64th overall player. Olson finished 84th following up that, you know, just massive season that he had back in 2023. The NFBC ADP in January, Olson is going at pick 37.

Alonzo at 55.6. Chris, do you plan to target either of these guys? in that round three, mostly four, like round four to five range to Mattelson and Pete Alonzo's. I don't really have a plan to target or avoid either of these guys. I think if I'm avoiding anyone, it's probably Alonzo just because I think MLB teams are rightly worried about how he's going to age and frankly where the skill set is now. And I think a big part of it is he is an all-field's power hitter. who doesn't produce Aaron judge exit velocities.

And so how is that going to age? Have we already seen the start of the drop off? Kind of worried that we have. And so, you know, especially if this drags out into spring training, I think we could see a slow start. I just, it's not really a profile I want to spend an early round pick on. these kind of three category sluggers where there's just, I don't want to say there's no chance for them to be helpful in batting average,

but it's really unlikely. And I just, it's too hard to find batting average throughout the draft to spend up for these kind of guys. If I was going to, I'd rather have Olson, but I don't necessarily love either. Yeah, Alonza's strikeout rate has been climbing. early in his career, it was dropping, and it was below 20% in both 2021 and 22.

Which is really good for a slugger like him, below 20%. But last year, it climbed back up to 25%. And any hopes of him being a 270 hitter, again, like he was in 2020. I think those are, I think those are out the window. His ADP is fine. What did you say? It was around 50? 55.6 for Alonzo.

Especially knowing first base drops off. Not that long after that. But it's not like I'm going to plan my draft around Pete Alonzo. I'm not sure. I mean, I haven't been a separate tier from Christian Walker because of the upside. But I think is the most likely outcome in order of magnitude better than Christian Walker? I don't know. I don't think so.

Hmm, Christian Walker. We'll talk about him in just a little bit, but let's take our final break, and we'll get back into the tiers right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. We're talking first base tiers, and we are on to the next best things tier, which includes Josh Naler, Christian Walker, Cody Bellinger,

Spencer's tier, Vinnie Pasquantino, Vinnie Pee. Baby! And Tristan Kossis. And this is where we start to get into the middle rounds. Things open up a little bit more, some big moves in this tier during the offseason as well. Josh Naylor traded over to the debacks. Christian Walker signs with the Astros

and Cody Bellinger was traded over to the Yankees. If you look at ADP for this group, January 80P, it spans rounds 8 through 10. So it actually is a smaller range than maybe than I let on there at the top. It's a lot of names. Yeah, it is a lot of names, but they're kind of going with just a two-round range, which was surprising. Walker going at pick 93 and then Kossis is down at 114.

Scott, tell me if you feel differently. This kind of feels like the cutoff for me. I would really like to have my starting first baseman by the end of this tier. I also don't really want it to be Spencer Sear if I can avoid that. But what do you think about, you know, just making sure you have your first, you're starting first basing by the end of this tier? Yeah, no, I'm in complete agreement and I did not do that in our last mock draft. And so I wound up with Michael Tolley as my starter first base.

It could work out. A lot of power potential there, but a lot of downside too. So this feels like the last range, particularly from a shallow league context where you're like, okay, I feel confident this guy's going to be my first baseman all year if I draft him. However, to further your point about how, okay, great, there's seven names here, but they may not last as long as you'd expect seven names to, to further that point, Salvador Perez is here.

Okay, he's being drafted as a catcher, obviously. Cody Bellinger could be drafted as an outfielder instead. Spencer Steer could be drafted as an outfielder instead. So there are five true first baseman. And at this point in the draft, when we get into this tier, only five first basemen have gone off the board. So 12-team league,

you know, you could see how things could get dicey here. Yeah. Chris, do you think Tristan Koss is, deserves to be in this tier because obviously while we think he still does have breakout potential we have not seen that come to fruition yet uh we saw about 50 games of it i think it was 57 games in the second half of 2023 where he hit at like a 45 homer pace and then yeah otherwise we haven't really seen it the strikeout rate got much worse last season uh got worse

against lefties overall, I believe. How much of that was he suffered a ribcage injury in, I think, April 26th or something. I'm willing to give him the benefit out. Like my breakouts came out today, Tuesday, and he's kind of the default first base breakout pick if you're going to go position by position. So, like, he's in there. I wish I felt more confident about it. I'm going to be honest.

I said I don't like, necessarily love drafting Matt Olson and Pete Alonza. I don't really love drafting these guys either. And what's happened to me in all my drafts is I end up not taking a first basement in the first three rounds. And then I don't like any of these guys. And then I'm like, oh, crap, I'm starting Christian and Carnaccio on Strand. There's no first basement left.

So it's a problem. And like last year was the worst in at least the last 23 years for first base production. First basement only had a 107 weighted runs creative plus. The position is just in a bad state. There's been a lot of prospect failures. Spencer Torkeson and Andrew Vaughn, I think, primarily among them. And first base just isn't what we've gotten used to. So I kind of don't know.

Like I'm going to write my first base preview, I think, next week. And I'm still like, I don't know what I want to do with this position. I almost just want to punt. pretend it doesn't exist. Yeah, I kind of just want to punt and just whoever, whichever one of the late round guys I get. It's not like it's deep there either. No, it's absolutely not.

You're asking, Frank, does Tristan Kossis to belong in this tier here with Josh Naylor and Christian Walker? Well, I think he, once you hear the names in the next tier, you'll decide that definitively, yes, Tristan Kossis belongs to this tier. We might just be giving him the benefit of the doubt that he doesn't deserve.

Like, it might just be, hey, he was a prospect two years ago and he had that good second half in 2023. So like that's how I'm acting. I'm just giving him the benefit. I mean, you got a top prospect who for the longest stretchy blade in the majors was amazing. And then last year was very injury prone season.

Started slowly, then had that weird rib injury that was a usage related injury. He like tore the cartilage in his ribs on a swing basically. That's weird. So yeah, I love them as a prospect. I'm giving Tristan Kosses a pass and obviously putting them in this

tier next best things. Wouldn't mind a trade, actually. Fenway's a really tough park for left hand of power hitters. I agree, Chris, but I also don't want him to go to Seattle. So, that would be bad. Yeah. Let's take a look at that fallback options

that Scott so graciously talked about. Jake Berger, Michael Tolia, and Luis arise. And you might have to settle for one of these as you're starting first baseman in, I wrote here in a deeper league. It might even happen in the 12-team league based on what you said, Scott.

Three different players, Burger and Tolia, they obviously have power, although Tolia is much less proven. And then Arise, other end of the spectrum. He's the best batting average provider in the sport, but he takes a very specific build in Roto and category leagues. The January ADP for this group spans rounds 10 through 15.

One of these names is not like the other. Apparently, Jake Berger is going at pick 113. Tolia and a rise are going in the 170s. So based on that price tag, Scott, why isn't Jake Burger in the previous tier, in a higher tier? You know, I'm thinking about it. I'm starting to warm up to Burger again, I have to say. Because at first I didn't like when he was traded to the Rangers.

It seems like, okay, there's not really a clear role for him. But then they traded Nathaniel Lowe after that. And it looks like Berger's just going to be the Rangers first baseman, which is a lot better than being the Marlins first baseman. And I trust him to hit 30 plus home runs. How many RBI will he get in that lineup? Probably a decent amount if he's hitting 30 plus home runs. I don't know why I'm emphasizing the home when I say home runs.

That's weird. but if I did move burger up a tier it would be with a little a little carrot next to his name which means he's a tier lower in points leagues because of that poor plate discipline so it would only be in rhodo leagues categories leagues that I moved them up but I'm not quite ready to go there I think I'm not quite there I've softened my stance on burger I was pretty out on him at his price. And he was going like 125 or early on. So his price

has also softened. And I think that's made it a little. Oh no, he's 1.13. No, it's gone up. Which makes sense. I mean, going from the Marlin Surangers is, you know, a big upgrade in terms of park and line up. And especially since the Nathaniel low trade. Nathaniel Lau,

low. Low. Low. It's low. Low. So one Lao, two lows. I just, man, I still think there's a lot of risk in this profile. And I don't want to pay that price for him. But I have raised him in my rankings a little bit. Come on, Chris, you talked me into Jake Burger as a bust. I wrote him up in my bust article. And now you're back in. Like, come on, man.

I mean, I'm not. Look, I rank him, I think, 149th overall. So I would not at all say I'm in on Jake Burger. But I'm just slightly less out than I used to be. The last resort's tier is just two names, Ryan Moutcastle and Paul Gulchman, two names who've showed up, showed various levels of upside in the past. Obviously, Gulchman is much more proven, a much longer track record than someone like Ryan Malkassel. We have changes for both of these gentlemen.

For Mountcastle, the left field in Camden Yards is actually moving in this year, so it should be a better ballpark to hit home runs for a right-handed hitter. and Paul Goldschmidt signed a one-year deal with the New York Yankees. The ADP, very different on these two. Goldschmidt at 166.4 and Mountcastle down at 240.8. Scott, why did you feel that these two names, Mountcastle and Gulchmidt, deserve to be in their own tier versus just being in the leftovers?

Well, for one thing, I like Mount Castle more than Goldschmidt. So it would be weird for me to tier Goldschmidt ahead of Mount Castle, considering I prefer Mount Castle. I have Malcastle as a break sleeper. I guess a sleeper. I have Malcastle as a sleeper this year in Goldschmidt. I just think is, I had him as a bus last year.

It came through. I'm not really expecting a reversal and fortune for him. Just because he's going to the Yankees. Malcastle obviously hits the ball very hard. He was a 33 homer guy before they pushed the fences back at Camden Yards and left field. Now that they're bringing the fences in 13 feet and side. Some places, 26 feet and others, I think he's going to approach 30 homers again in a very up and coming lineup. I think he could be a nice find here.

And yeah, he's he's he's I prefer him to Gulchman. Ryan, Ryan Mountcastle should sue whoever designed the, the fences. Like legitimately might have cost him like $70 million in career earnings. It's it's actually like, because remember, when he had that 33 homer season, we were all out on him the next year because his quality of contact metrics weren't very good. And then they moved the fences out.

We were just like, we don't want any part of it. And then his quality of contact metrics the last three years are significantly better. And it doesn't, it didn't matter. So I am hopeful that moving the fences in can get Ryan Malkassel back to being a 25 homer guy.

And yeah, I like the sleeper call there. According to Stackast, Ryan Malkassel has lost 10 home. runs in Camden Yards over the past three years. Well, the way I put it in my Sleepers article, which is coming out Wednesday, Sleepers 1.0, over the last three years in the Camden Crater, he hit 53 home runs, just, not just in Camden Yard, but for his career, he had 53 home runs over that three year span.

If he had played in the most neutral park, which is Nationals Park in Washington, he would have hit 67. Yeah. So that was 14 home runs. It would have been more if he wasn't injured for part of that time either. Yeah. I will say, Goldschmidt's fine.

He recovered in the second half. He wasn't all the way back to Goldschmidt, but. No, he won't be all the way back to Goldschmidt. But like, if you get a $7.99 OPS and he was on pace for about 23 homers and 12 steals, like if you got that out of him, that's basically Spencer Steer. right? I mean, that's a big if, though. You're saying if the second half version of Goldschmidt shows up without any further regression at age 37, it'll be okay.

And I'm just not willing to gamble on that. I get that. I'm just saying, if I were to wait, I don't hate Paul Goldschmidt. I'd rather have him on my team to Luis Sorayas, who just does he does one thing. one thing that's hard to find one thing that's really hard to find but man it really makes it yeah really makes it tough to build a team around

gold train you're not building a team around your 180th pick but you get what I mean the leftovers includes 19 names I am not going to read all of them off there are a lot of late round options going outside the top 190 picks in ADP no analysis just give me one name in the leftover tier that leftovers tier

that you guys might be interested in as a deeply corner infield or something like that. Davidson Delos it might take a little while but he was on my sleepers list. Path is very clear in Miami once they decide

to give him an opportunity. Scott? Jonathan Aronda. Do it. Make it happen. Come on. Playing in the Yankee Stadium South. Let's get it done.

And I will say Tyler Soderstrom who was in my breakouts 1.0. I think the power is legit and he's going to a pretty solid park. Oh wait. Cowman Zarda since we're not doing DHS but we'll just group him in. I do like that call as well.

All right, let's get into third base tiers. The first rounders includes one name, Jose Ramirez, who is coming off a near 40-40-40 season, 39 home runs, 41 steals, 39 doubles last season. And according to the Fangraphs playerator, he finishes the fourth overall player in Roto leagues. He is about as consistent as they come. He has finished as a top six player in four of the past five seasons

has Jose Ramirez. the ADP is 5.3. The only question here, Scott, is how high should J-RAM go in 2025? Yeah, and I believe he is my fifth player in Roto and end points also. I think I have the same top five in some order in those two formats. Last year, equaled his career high in home runs, set a career high in steals. You can understand him setting a career high in steals, given that it's a much easier leak to steal in now.

The career high in home runs, though, followed a down year for power, and I kind of worried he was on the decline. He is in his early 30s now, but he bounced back in such a big way that I'm no longer worried he's on the decline. I think he's the clear number one with a bullet here at third base, considering a lot of the other lead options kind of stumbled this past year. Worth mentioning also at the third base position, they have lost Gunner Henderson and Ellie Dela Cruz

from last season to this season. So obviously that is a pretty big blow to the position. There are still some talented players here, but obviously losing out on first round caliber fantasy options is the third base position. J-RAM, I did just want to point out he is a top-five option for each of us across the board, regardless of format for Scott, Chris, and myself, J-Ram.

Make sure you draft him top-five pick. The also elite tier includes Raphael Devers, Austin Riley, Jazz Chisholm, Mani Machado. This like the first base position this tier fantasy mainstays in the sport with the addition of Jazz Chisholm this year who is now going as a late second early third round pick in fantasy drafts he has third base and outfield eligibility and the ADP is basically you know round three I mean jazz at pick 24 and then Machado at pick 36 so you know all within that that round three range Chris are you worried at all about

the injury risk with two names here. Raphael Devers, who dealt with problems with both of his shoulders last season, actually was shut down and finished the season on the IL. And then Jazz, who just has an extensive injury history, stress fracture in his back, turf toe, and a sprain UCL in his elbow last season. Yeah, I think, especially with Jazz,

there's a little bit of the Luis Robert in 2023 here where he played 147 games, but there was a fairly, significant injury towards the end of the season that if he was still playing in Miami, I would imagine Jazz Chisholm's season might have just been over in mid-August when he had the UCL sprain. And he just played third because he was in a playoff race for the first time, or second time, I guess.

But yeah, that's always going to be at risk. It's just he played 46 games with the Yankees and he put up a 39 homer 63 steel pace. and he might hit in front of Aaron Judge. And so it's one of those things where it's like, yeah, the downside is he gets hurt again. The upside is potentially a first rounder. So that's, I think these, the prices are all fine despite having some reservations

and these four guys are separated by nine spots in my overall rankings. There's issues with all. of them because you brought up Devers, Frank, and last two months last year, he hit 205 with a 624 OPS, but worse than that, his bat speed. Yeah. And the strength of his throws were way down. Like that shoulder was clearly bothering him. And I guess both shoulders were in a way that was very much affecting him on both sides of

the ball. Is he going to show up fine? Can't say for sure. Austin Riley coming off the down season was beginning to turn things around, but then broke the hamate bone in his hand, which is sometimes power suppressed coming back from that. I think it happened long enough ago that it'll probably be fine. But he was also having a down season, like I said.

So I think all of them are going to be fine. That's why I tear them all together. But there are kind of concerns there for each one. Yeah, I mean, crazy enough, Manny Machado, might be the safest of that entire group. And he's going latest of all the names. Maybe he doesn't have the same upside as the others, but not really far off.

And I think a totally fine, serviceable third or fourth round pick would be Manny Machado this upcoming season. The near-elite tier, one name, one is the loneliest number. Alex Bregman, who is actually one tier lower in a Categorys League. So, Scott, in a Categorys League, there is no near-elite tier. It just does that one-ness. No, it's a completely vacant tier for Categories leagues slash Roto leagues. He's got the little dagger next to his name, which indicates drop of a mature only in points.

And obviously, Bregman has been a drop of a mature in Roto. He only belongs here in points. And obviously, Bregman has been a points league standout for his entire career. Yeah, he averaged three fantasy points per game last season. Plate discipline has been a calling card for Alex Bregman throughout his career. The ADP is 134. which would have him more so in the next tier. But that makes sense because the NFBC is mostly Roto and category leagues.

But I did just want to ask Scott, how much could Bregman's value change based on where he lands? Because he is still a free agent. On the lower end, we've heard maybe the Detroit Tigers could sign him. On the higher end, the Boston Red Sox. So he would be in the next best things tier. So the tier below this in Roto leagues either way, because it's a big tier

and I think it would just include him. But I think it would drop to that tier for points leagues also if he went to a park that isn't hitter, like that that isn't hitter friendly and left or at least isn't neutral

and left because his strength during his entire time with Astros was just living to that pole side. Not as extreme as like an Esauk Perides, but kind of in the Nolan Aeronado mold of he gets to his power not so much by hitting the ball hard but by elevating to his pull side

so he needs the fence to be relatively close there on the pole side and again that is Alex Bregman in the near elite tier by himself of course in points leagues the next best things tier includes Jordan Westberg Matt Chapman

Royce Lewis Mark Vientos Jr. Caminero Kamenero Alec Boe and Issa Parade is. So a very interesting tier that includes some established veterans as well as young upside type names there and a wide range of January 80p for this group as well from rounds 8 through 17. So Vientos at the top at 86.6.6 and then Paratus all the way on the bottom at pick 195, which I don't really understand given he will now be playing his home games in Houston.

I still have to remember their new ballpark name, whatever it is. It'll always be Minutemate Park to me. Why do you... I didn't know it changed. I need to update that in my sleepers column before it comes out. I think it's like Dykin Park or something like that.

D-A-I-K-I-N park. I don't like that. Air conditioning company. It's still Enron Field to me. Scott, of all these names, why did you feel that none were worthy of being in the near elite tier? one above.

Because none of them are. I guess you could make the argument that Royce Lewis, Mark Vientos and Junior Commonero all have that kind of upside. But I rank Jordan Westberg and Matt Chapman ahead of them for downside reasons.

So they belong in this tier instead. I'm not the biggest Vientos believer. My busts 1.0 has already come out. He's the headliner in it. and I don't need to get into why because that would extend this podcast another five minutes. But yeah, that's why Viantos belongs in this tier

with Chapman and Paredes rather than being a tier higher. Paredes, the other reason why I mentioned Minutemate Park is mentioned in my sleepers article is because of Paredes. And I'm a big fan of him with that move going from Tampa because where the left field foul pole is very close, only 315 feet away, to Wrigley, where it's very deep, to Houston, where it's back to 350 feet at the foul pole and much shallower even than Tampa coming out of the foul pole. And you look at his spray charts, he just lives around that left field foul pole.

That's how he gets to all this power, despite bottom of the barrel exit velocity readings. So I'm firmly on board with Perettas in this tier and does a sleeper overall. Okay, so you do not have Suarez or Burger in this tier. No. Okay. I was trying to figure out because I was looking at mine and I kind of have like Lewis, Westberg, Vientos, and Camerro in a tier. And then there's about a 40-pig drop.

And then it's Chapman, Bregman, Suarez, Burger, and Peretti. I know I'm high on Chapman relative to the consensus. I pretty much bind to what he did last year. And if he does what he did last year again, then he clearly belongs in the next. next best things tier. I'm more skeptical of Suarez because he's much older and he was much worse during the years leading up to last year as bad as Chapman was. And then Berger, you know, he's tiered. He's in the same tier of third base that he is in first base. I will say with regards to Suarez, Frank, is it okay to talk about him or do you want to introduce the next tier?

Yeah, we could talk about it. The fallback options tier includes Jake Berger, A. E. E. E. O'Henio, Suarez, Luis Renhifo, Max Muncie, and Matt Shaw. Go ahead, Chris, on Eugenio Swares. I understand the skepticism around Suarez, but I do want to point out. He had a 78 OPS and a 256 batting average 30 homers last year. 2023 was terrible. 2022, he hit 236, so 20 points worse, but a 791 OPS, 31 homers. I don't think there was that big of a difference.

And the one thing that clearly stood out was the strikeout rate was much higher those two seasons in Seattle. And it went way down. Well, we know that Seattle's a really tough place to hit and the hitters don't see the ball well. So I think that's a reasonable explanation. And the underlying numbers have been pretty consistent over the past really like five years. So I actually think Suarez is like a pretty decent bet for 30. homers and a bunch of RBI. It's just, does he hit 230 and kill you there?

Or does he hit 250 and keep his head above water? I think that's the bigger question. It's a fair question, given that we've seen him go from sub Mendoza line four years ago to 256 last year. There's a lot of, a lot that can go wrong there. But I think you're being a little harsh. And then with Chapman, I just like, he's not. not stealing 15 bases again, is he?

I don't see why. It was because he never did. I'm not saying it's a different, it's a different world for stolen bases now. But nobody, it's hard to make those comparisons. But the, the weird thing is he was like the only guy

on that team that ran. The Giants were, I'm not even sure. If he's hitting 250 with 30 homers and getting a hundred, 60 combined runs at RBI again, I'm not sure he needs the steals to live up to where I rank him. But he needs them to be better than E.

Johanio Suarez. Unless I think Suarez regresses to being the 221 hitter he was for the four years prior to 2024. By the way, the worst two batting average years of that four year span weren't even in Seattle. They were in Cincinnati. Yeah. Yeah. Look, I get it. I just, I don't know.

Matt Chapman was pretty. pretty fantasy afterthought-e prior to last year. And had his own pretty bad. Like, what did Suarez hit in that span? 221. Over the four years. You know what Matt Chapman hit over the previous four years? What?

Significantly better. 226. 226, yeah. Yeah, but it made less sense to me when he was struggling than when Suarez was. Yeah, I've had trouble wrapping my mind around what Matt Chapman did. The shape of his production was very weird. The 15 steals. Him and Tyler Fitzgerard were the only players and more than six on the Giants last year.

And Matt Chapman's actually pretty fast. 82nd percent on sprint speed, I think. But he just never had, I think, his career high before that was four or six, something like that. I said 160 combined runs in RBI for Chapman. It was more like 175. And it was 191, I think, for Suarez. But you're expecting regression. I get that.

Yeah. Yeah, I think Lewis, Westberg, Viantos, and Camerro are a tier above. And I would put Chapman, Bome, and Paredes probably in the fallback options. But I get it. I think I'd rather just be in on the young guys, I guess, and going by ADP, so does everyone else. In a points league, I will point out that Max Muncie averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game last season. He's almost assuredly going to miss time, but on a per game basis, still projected to about fifth or sixth in that Dodgers lineup. I still think Max Muncie is going to be pretty good. And Matt Shaw, by the way, top prospect for the Chicago Cubs. There's number three on Scott's top 100, if I'm remembering correctly, right?

Sounds like he is being given every opportunity to win their starting third basement. or rather to lose their starting third baseman job in spring training, right? Like he would have to fall flat on his face not to win that job, basically. I do want to point one thing out. You asked, would you be okay with any of these guys as your starter? I would not love Luis Renhifo as my starting third baseman. He's a top 10 second baseman for me, though. So I do think Luis Ranhifo is a starting caliber fantasy option.

I really love what we saw from him last year. I don't know if I buy the 300 average, but 275 seems reasonable. Very good strikeout rate. He started running a tonne last year. So I think that's a very, very cheap leadoff hitter, or at least hopeful, likely leadoff hitter. So yeah, that I think Luis Renhifo is a very, very good starting second baseman, or at least a good starting second basement. The last resort here includes just two names, Nolan Aronado and John. Josh Young both come with question marks right now.

Will Aronado get traded? The Red Sox kind of feel like our last hope from a fantasy perspective to acquire Nolan Aronado. And then Josh Young, he has flashed some upside. He looked pretty good in, what was that, 2002 now at this point? 23. 23.

But since then has dealt with recurring wrist injuries. He had another surgery last season. So big questions here, Scott. Why are Aronado and Josh Young ahead of the leftovers here? And Young is going to be 27 this year. So he's older than you think he is for not having played that much in the majors. Why are Aeronado and Young ahead of the leftovers tier?

Why are they? Well, I think the upside is more. And the downside, at least for Aeronado is more. I just think they're capable of more than like a Ryan McMahon or Jemar Candelario is. I don't know how to explain it much beyond that. That seems fair enough to me. The leftover seer has 17 names. And again, I'm just not going to read all of them off here.

But are there any names here that stand out as a deep league corner infield type? And Kobe Mayo is the obvious one if he gets a starting job for Baltimore. Otherwise, I've been the Christopher Morrell hater. But Christopher Morrell is super cheap for the first time. in a couple of years. I'm excited for him as a deep sleeper. Man, I don't like anyone here

in the leftovers. Connor Norby, I think, is kind of interesting. Flash a little power and speed. He's going to have a runway. He's playing for a bad team in the Marlins. The county stats will probably be bad. There's some bad... The opportunity is there for Norby,

but I think what he did last year was pretty phony baloney, to be honest. Jamer Candelario was a sleeper for everybody last season. Yeah. Yeah, I could see him making good on that this year in a way he didn't last year, but it, you know, I could say that for Noelvi-Marte. Maybe Noelvi Marte puts the nonsense from the previous year behind him and finally meets his potential. It just feels like a low probability play. Yeah, I mean, nobody has any faith in him repeating it. Jose Cabriero still, what, 44 bases last

year led the A. Allen steals. So, you know, I think he lost, he lost his job before the season was down. I think he's pretty bad. But yeah, if the playing time's there, I think he's going to be useful. Yeah. I just wonder how long before the raise go to Carson Williams at some point this season, which seems like it could be pretty soon. But yeah, fair. I mean, lots of speed out of Caballero. 44 for 60. He hits 60 stolen base attempts last season for the Tampa Bay raise. All right. Michael Garcia, we could say the same thing. A lot of speed. but not a lot of trust in the playing time. Yeah, that is definitely a name worth mentioning here.

It took us a while, but we finally got to it. First and third base tiers. And then tomorrow we will have second base and shortstop. We're going to wrap there. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.