Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 H2H Points Mock Draft Recap! Jake Burger Traded to the Rangers! (12/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

Link to draft results- https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2025-fantasy-baseball-mock-draft-first-look-at-head-to-head-h2h-points-shows-paul-skenes-going-in-round-1/ Before we get into the... mock draft, let's start with the Jake Burger trade (2:57). ... Nathan Eovaldi is returning to the Rangers (8:36). ... Spencer Horwitz was re-routed to the Pirates (10:30). ... Let's get into our first H2H points mock draft (19:05). What were the biggest differences between this draft and our first Roto mock? ... Jarren Duran went too late in this mock (24:25). ... What were some of the biggest pitching differences (29:46)? ... Who were some of the most surprising picks (38:55)? ... Did these young hitters get drafted too high, too low or just right (48:32)? ... We wrap up recapping each of our teams (55:00). To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Tis the season for mock drafts. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 12th.
Starting point is 00:00:30 I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we are recapping our first head-to-head points mock draft of the offseason. It's our second mock overall, but also the first one we've done since October 30th. So many things have changed, and we will highlight a lot of those differences. We also have some moves that we still need to talk about. This has been a very eventful week, lots going on with the winter meetings, but we've got Nathan Avaldi back to the Rangers, Jake Burger got traded, Spencer Horowitz got moved again after we did that emergency.
Starting point is 00:01:03 podcast. So let's just get an emergency podcast for Spencer Horowitz. Exactly that. This guy's a bigger deal than I thought. Let's get these, the news out of the way. And then we'll jump into that mock draft. We did an emergency podcast for Garrow Crochet as well. It was almost 30 minutes long. I feel like we covered every single aspect of it. So make sure to check that out. A lot going on there. Yeah, there is. Turns out the Rangers were looking to beef up their lineup because they acquired Jake Burger from the Marlins. In exchange for three prospects, Ashedri Vargas, Max Acosta, and Brian Mendoza.
Starting point is 00:01:40 So Berger, we know, took a step back this season, but he was still useful, mostly in the second half. He had 29 home runs, 760 OPS. He still hits the ball very hard. Scott, how does everything work out here for the Rangers? How does everything fit? Because roster resource has Burger at DH. Nathaniel Lowe is still there at first base. They have a crowded outfield.
Starting point is 00:02:03 Your thoughts? Well, that is the question. How does everything fit? Clearly, the Rangers see a fit there, but is it a fit that's going to keep him fantasy relevant? Because he's the sort of player who could lose fantasy relevance very easily. He really just brings one thing to the table, the big power, not a great on-base guy, not a great defender.
Starting point is 00:02:24 So he had an easy time getting into the White Sox lineup and the Marlins lineup. They could use anything. halfway decent in their lineup. The Rangers, it's a different story. I think he could be partially a fallback option if Josh Young gets hurt again at third base. He could be partially a platoon partner with Nathaniel Lo at first base.
Starting point is 00:02:47 He could be a part-time DH for those days. They want to get Leone Tavaris out of the lineup. But is he going to get all the way to full-time at bats between those three different roles because if he's anything less than that, probably not that relevant in 12-team leagues anymore. So even though it's a better lineup, it's a better venue.
Starting point is 00:03:12 I actually think Jake Berger loses value with his deal. I dropped him a couple spots in both my first base rankings and third-base rankings. First base, he dropped behind Ryan Mountcastle and Paul Goldschmidt for me, third base behind Nolan Aeronado and his new teammate, Josh Young. And I will just say, like, this is one that might just be like saving the fantasy world because from itself. Yeah, Jake Berger's been going like 127 overall in the NFC drafts that have happened. It might be lower lately, but that is the overall number.
Starting point is 00:03:54 And that is way too high, I think. I don't know. Scott, where you have him. ranked, but yeah, even in December, it was 126. He's been, right now he's in the 191 spot for me. I moved him down a little bit, but he was never as high as his ADP for me. Let me see. Before the trade, Adam 171.
Starting point is 00:04:18 Yeah. I said I moved him behind those guys. The truth is I'm planning to move him behind those guys. My rankings aren't public yet, so I can pretend. Well, yeah, that's, yeah. I wonder if that ADP is just a little bit of a, panic about there's just not that much power in the middle rounds of draft. So maybe people look at Berger and think, you know, he still should be a 30 home run hitter.
Starting point is 00:04:38 And it's interesting, Scott, that you think, you know, Liote Tavares could still play in this move. And I'm sure he'll get some at bats. But I kind of viewed this as Burger is just the team's DH. And they'll roll with Langford, Evan Carter, Adolas Garcia in the outfield. But you also bring up a good point about there's a lot of injury risk on that team between Josh Young and Evan Carter coming back from a back injury. and Adolas Garcia is coming back from a knee injury. So I kind of feel like Burger is just going to get full at bats,
Starting point is 00:05:07 but maybe I'm wrong about that. It could go that way. I just, I think there's no way of predicting it. And, you know, they also have Josh Smith, who did a lot of nice things for them last year and currently doesn't have a lineup spot. I suspect Burger will play more than Laotie Tavares. But if he gets only 450 at bats...
Starting point is 00:05:27 Oh, that's a huge problem if that happens. Right. Right. That's still a lot of playing time, but it's not enough to keep him mattering in 12-team leagues. As you mentioned, you pointed out, I just wanted to put some numbers on it. It's a huge upgrade for Jake Berger. Rangers Globe Life Field, fifth for home run park factor. The Marlins Lone Depot Park is 22nd. And he's going from a team that scored the 27th most runs in baseball to the Rangers who were 18th. And of course, they were all the way up at third in 2023. So looking to get that. Marlins, really 27th in runs?
Starting point is 00:06:02 Yes. That feels way too high. That feels at least two spots too high. Yeah. It surprised me a little bit too. I noticed you didn't say three. Yeah, I know, well, I mean, the White Sox were historically bad, but yeah, they were. Wow.
Starting point is 00:06:18 Tough look for the Raisin Angels. Last point on the Marlin side of things with Jake Berger gone, I assume Davis and De Los Santos gets a chance to DH right from the jump. feels that way. I would hope so. I mean, Peter Bendix has had a couple of quotes this offseason that have been like pretty cagey about his chances of playing every day.
Starting point is 00:06:42 Augustin Ramirez, a couple of the other guys that they acquired. I would assume he's got to play every day, but it might be, you know, tenuous enough that if he has a bad spring, it might give them cause to send him back down. Davis to Los Santos is still only 22. So, you know, not a, not like, it's not a Kyle's hours where they kind of need to see what they have right now.
Starting point is 00:07:05 Let's stick with the Rangers and talk about their pitching because Nathan Avaldi is headed back to the team on a three years, $75 million deal. And coming off another solid season, 380 ERA 111 whip got to 170 and two thirds innings. That was his most since 2021. Swinging strike rate was actually awesome. 13%. That was 12 highest among qualified starting pitchers. The early ADP for Avaldi is 206. He's going just ahead of McKenzie Gore, Bowden-Francis, Tanner Hauk, and Spencer Araggetti.
Starting point is 00:07:38 Thoughts on the price tag for Nathan Avaldi there. It feels fine. If anything, I could go a couple rounds ahead. He's 182 in my rankings right now in Roto. So I have no problem with him at that price. He's pretty much a known quantity
Starting point is 00:07:55 and that quantity is good and, you know, stayed healthy enough to get to 170 innings last year, which is, you know, a relatively big deal for him. He hadn't done that in each of the previous two seasons. But he's not a difference maker. He's a nice stabilizer, I think. Yeah, I think that's fair too. I think maybe a little bit unlucky.
Starting point is 00:08:16 The Sierra was at 364. Actually, expected ERA was at 386. So, yeah, maybe he's just kind of in that range. I mean, the two years he just had. was the best two-year stretch of his career. I think it's worth noting. It was fine, and I think he's pretty safely fine. But you know he's probably going to have an IL stint.
Starting point is 00:08:36 You know he's probably going to have a stretch where he loses a mile per hour and gets hit really hard. But then those stretches where he's not doing that, he outperforms his overall numbers and pitches deep into games, gets you a nice win total. That's basically Nathan Avaldi in a nutshell. All right, we did the Max Friede, emergency pod yesterday. We also talked about the Andres
Starting point is 00:08:58 Jimenez trade in that podcast. And Jimenez went to the Blue Jays. Spencer Horowitz came back to Cleveland. And then it turns out that Horowitz was rerouted to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Josh Hartle, Luis Ortiz, and Michael Kennedy. So Horowitz seems likely to play first base for the Pirates. So much for Brian Reynolds, getting some reps there. And you know, Scott, typically we don't think PNC is not a great place to hit. 13th in left-handed home run park factor.
Starting point is 00:09:29 It's terrible for right-handers. It's not bad for left-handers, and Horowitz's power is to his pull side. So I don't think the venue's going to drag down his value in any way. I would have rather him played every day in Cleveland, but playing every day in Pittsburgh is still an upgrade from his situation in Toronto. And I think he becomes somebody who's going to be drafted in Roto League, probably. with the extra middle endfields and corner end filled spot, he'll be eligible at second base, a thin position,
Starting point is 00:10:01 and could be a useful source of batting average while still providing some power. The ADP is going very late for Spencer Horowitz, 446 over at the NFBC. Scott, let me ask you this. Two hitters that I know have a special place in your heart. Would you rather Spencer Horowitz or Jonathan Arronda, as things stand right now?
Starting point is 00:10:25 Well, it depends how deep the league is. I think Aranda has more upside. So if you're in this sort of league where the incentive in the lay rounds is just to get as much upside as you can and figure it out later on the waiver wire, then Aranda. But if you play in like a deep 15 teamer,
Starting point is 00:10:43 better off going with Horwitz since the bats are more likely to be there. The Rockies sign Tyro Estrada to a one-year deal and could be a sneaky move for fantasy. Estrada dealt with a bunch of injuries this year. Complete down season. I think he got DFA'd at some point by the Giants. But he finishes a top 125 player in Roto, both 22 and 2023.
Starting point is 00:11:06 A little bit of power, some speed, solid batting average. You know, assume he'll hit a little bit in Corus Field as well. Chris, any interest here in deeper leagues, Tyro Ashrata to the Rockies? It would have to be a deep categories league. I don't think there's much chance that he matters for head to head points. And look, something that we have fallen victim to in past years is like solid, decent-ish journeyman lands with the Rockies. And we're like, oh, that's kind of interesting. And it usually doesn't work out.
Starting point is 00:11:35 Jerks and ProFar would be a pretty prime example of that in the past couple of years. It's not a cure all. It seems weird that it doesn't work out, right? Because it used to work. Like, go back 15, 20 years, that was a formula for finding an instant stud in fantasy. and I know since then they've brought in the humadors and they made some changes, but it still plays as a very
Starting point is 00:11:58 bad best boosting part. It's the best hitters park in baseball still by far. Yeah, it's not even close. I think the problem is just even play. Like the Rocky scored about a half a run more than the Rays did last year, who were the second worst offense in the league. The Rockies probably had a worse offense than the raise, right? Like it's just that course,
Starting point is 00:12:22 The Rockies finishing, they were like 19th in runs scored last year. That means that they are just a disaster away from course field. And so very low county stat opportunities outside of course field for half your games. And then you still have to hit at course field. And so like. Well, with Tyro Estrada, though, he was a pretty valuable asset in 22 and 23. He was like a poor man's Tommy Edmund. and he played last season with a wrist injury.
Starting point is 00:12:57 So you can totally understand why his number's cratered. I'm not going to design a draft strategy around Tyro Estrada, but I do think he's worthy of a late-round pick in Roto. I can see it mattering in Roto. Like, yeah, if they let him steal 25 bases, especially, that this was a team where two guys stole double digits last year and one of them stole 10. So, you know, I don't know how likely that is.
Starting point is 00:13:22 but I also, I don't know, do the Rockies ever seem like they have a plan? It's not, I don't know if they, I just, and I say that to say that I don't know if the Rockies said, we're not going to run. It's just like, if you wanted to run, you could run. And Brent Doyle is the only one who wanted to run last year. Probably the answer there. So like, yeah, I could see Tara Estrada hitting 275 and stealing 25 bases. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:44 This won't surprise anybody, but 24 career games in course field for Estrada. He has hit 348 with four home runs. Three steals and a 971 OPS. Unfortunately, he doesn't get to face Rockies pitchers. That is fair. Speaking of the Rockies, Brenton Doyle is expected to be their lead-off man next season. He hit all over the lineup this past year,
Starting point is 00:14:06 but did see most of the time batting second and third. So I guess could see even more run scored next season. Lots of rumors still out there. Trade rumors. The Cubs and the Yankees are trying for Kyle Tucker, and the Red Sox are in contact with the Mariners, trying to get a starting pitcher, which is something we spoke about Chris
Starting point is 00:14:25 and still think it makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox to make another move. Before we hit our first break, we have a pretty awesome announcement here. FBT is a finalist for Best Baseball Podcasts in the Sports Podcast Awards, and the winner will be determined by a fan vote. So we need your help.
Starting point is 00:14:46 If you're watching on YouTube, scan the QR code, or click the link in the episode description. And once you get to the website, You just click the little thumbs up next to FBT, punching your info, and it's easy as that. Help us bring home the hardware. You know? Let's get it done.
Starting point is 00:15:00 Can we lobby this group to do the voting in like March next year? I feel like we'd have a much better chance. Yeah. If we were doing this in March, you know, really rally the troops at the biggest moment of the year. Yeah. Putting the baseball podcast at a disadvantage. Yeah, you're not wrong, man.
Starting point is 00:15:18 Let's take our first break. When we return, we hop into the head to head, points mock draft. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's recap our first head to head points mock draft of the offseason. 12 team head to head points league using the CBS scoring format and all the results are live on the site. I'll put the link in the episode description so you can follow along if you'd like. And I was drafting third, Scott was sixth, and Chris was eighth. As I mentioned, this was our second mock draft, first head to points. But I'm going to start with pointing out some of the biggest differences from that
Starting point is 00:15:53 draft that happened on October 30th. And again, that was Roto. This is points. So I think just clearly there was going to be some differences. I'll pull up the draft here for some people watching, if you want to see. But the one that, a couple that stand out in the first round, Scott, we had Juan Soto. He went second in this draft. He was fourth in Roto. We had Bobby Witt, Jr. He fell all the down to six. He went to you, but that was great. He went second in the Roto draft. Freddie Freeman went ninth in this one, 22nd in Roto. So maybe just a little overzealous there. And then Paul Skeens went 12th in this draft, 18th in the Roto one. Anything stand out from those four differences. Soto, Bobby Witt, Freeman, and Paul Skeens. I think Soto and Witt both just represent
Starting point is 00:16:37 a little over-correcting on this. That's right. Yep. I was going to say the same thing. Obviously, you should adjust for the format. And look, Bobby Witt walks an average amount, has a below average strikeout rate. Not a, like he's not a guy who is significantly worse in a head to head points.
Starting point is 00:17:00 But he used to point out. Yeah, he used to be. But he's made such strides with the, with the strikeout rate. I don't want to steal what you're about to point out because I think it's the same thing I was about to point out. What was it?
Starting point is 00:17:14 Well, I just, Bobby Witt's not going to be this good next year, probably, is the way I would put it. Like, I think he's going to be a good source of batting average. I do not think Bobby Wood is going to hit 332 again. I think it's, I think the Royals as a team are pretty likely to take a step back.
Starting point is 00:17:34 So I would certainly take the under on 125 runs, probably the under on 109 RBI. Okay. Great. player, but I do think like just saying, hey, he was third in points last year. I'm not expecting an exact repeat of last year. And I think the ways in which he, he finished third last year, you know, especially that's just bonkers counting stats, I could, I think you should bet on that being a little
Starting point is 00:18:04 lower. So like him falling to six, he probably shouldn't fall to six. But I, I don't think it's as egregious as Juan Soto going second. in a head-to-head points league, which just, I think, should not happen. Well, what I was going to point out is actually the opposite of what you pointed out. So we're not on the same page. Uh-oh. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:24 Uh-huh. Fight. Bobby Witt had more. So, yes, Juan Soto we think of as a head-to-head points type of player. Bobby Witt, we think of as more of a roto type of player. Bobby Witt had more head-to-head points per game than Juan Soto last year. when Juan Soto had arguably his career season. So you mentioned there are ways Bobby Witt could lose points next year,
Starting point is 00:18:49 but I will point out he only stole 31 bases when he stole 49 the year before. So he could make up a lot of points that he loses in other areas just by getting that stolen base total backup. I rank Bobby Witt exactly the same. Really, my top four is exactly the same at both points in Roto League. with... Same order? Same order. Actually, I have Judge
Starting point is 00:19:12 ahead of Otani in points leagues. So Judge Otani with Soto and points leagues. Otani Judge Witt, Soto and Roto. Smaller gap between three or four in points leagues than in Roto.
Starting point is 00:19:25 Soto, a stronger four. But the actual four doesn't change for me. With Freeman, going ninth overall, averages 3.3 fantasy points per game. I think some people might look at him as a better player in head-to-points as well.
Starting point is 00:19:42 I think he just maybe went a little bit too early in this draft, so I'm not really putting too much stock into that. And then- He is a better head-to-head points player, good plate discipline, a lot of doubles. But it was, it's funny. When I first started this gig, people wouldn't correct enough for head-to-head points leagues versus Roto. You get some real values that way.
Starting point is 00:20:02 But now I think, like Chris was saying, it's gone far the other direction. Well, this guy is good in this format. so I'm going to raise them 15 spots when really you should raise him more like five. Paul Skeens went 12th to finish out the first round. He was 18th in that first draft. Do you guys think this is a head-to-head points effect
Starting point is 00:20:21 or is this closer to where he'll actually go in drafts come March? This is just where he's going. It's hard to say because the drafts that are happening right now are those high-stakes leagues that really do prioritize looking for the overall, and I think people are talking themselves into all skeins being a huge differentiator in that regard in a way that may not be true for the general population and certainly may not be true for a
Starting point is 00:20:51 points league population as well, because I do think as good as he is and as many endings he pitched last year, he's probably a worse bet for huge volume than Terrick Scoobal or Zach Wheeler or even that's probably like, we're not into Skeens as the number one pitcher, but it makes even less sense than head-to-head points because you rely so much on pitching volume. I think he will go around 12th in a lot of roto leagues,
Starting point is 00:21:17 but I think it makes less sense in a points league. All right, let's move on to some other early round differences between this mock and our first one. Jaron Duran went 20th overall in the first one. Scott, you got him all the way down at 30, the middle of round three. And I actually wanted to take Duran myself, but I started my draft with Aaron Judge and Jackson Churio.
Starting point is 00:21:40 So I didn't want to fill up all three outfield spots in a three outfielder league. Maybe I should have just tried it out to see how it would have worked out. But yeah, I thought that was obviously good value there on Duran, middle of third round. Yeah, because his main contribution is stolen bases, I think, again, there's an overcorrection. People think of Duran is, okay, this is a roto type of player. and not so much a points league type of player, but 3.48 points per game last year was Jaron Duran, which was, what's a good comp?
Starting point is 00:22:17 Freddie Freeman, who went in round one, 3.28. So Duran was significantly better on a per game basis than Freeman last year. And I think similar to what you were saying, Chris, about Bobby Witt is the most likely scenario is that Jaron Duran takes a step back. I still think he's worthy of like a late second, early third round pick, but he's probably not going to do, you know, 3.5 fantasy points per game again or anything like that. Maybe he does, and he just surprises me.
Starting point is 00:22:45 I think another similar player, Scott, where people look at him and they think Roto immediately and maybe he falls a little bit too far is Trey Turner, who I took in the early third round at 27th overall, and he went 21st in that first Roto mock. So does Trey Turner in the early third make sense? Do you think he should go even higher in a points league? I'm not even sure Trey Turner is like significantly better in a Roto League than a points league anymore.
Starting point is 00:23:08 Yeah. This has been going on with Trey Turner for years. Well, yeah. Way to, at least in the drafts we do with people, he's, he gets ignored for like a round longer than he should. Even in his heyday when he was like a mid first rounder, okay, maybe he's like a mid-second rounder in a points league instead of a mid-first rounder. but he falls like the middle of the third round. And it's like, wow, this is insane. Trey Turner, not in his prime anymore, 3.35 points per game last year.
Starting point is 00:23:41 So again, another guy who was higher than Freddie Freeman. I'm going to keep picking on Freddie Freeman. Okay, how about this one? Trey Turner, 3.35 points per game last year, Corbyn Carroll, 3.34. Sounds to me. I was the one who got Trey Turner, so I love it. Yeah, like I don't think he should go much later in a half. had Dead Points League than a Roto League at this point.
Starting point is 00:24:03 So any discount you get there, I think is welcome. I've noticed some... Just to clarify, I do rank Trey Turner lower than both Freddie Freeman and certainly Corp and Carroll in this format. But the point is just he is closer to them than this, him being drafted 30th overall, you said? 27. 27th overall he's closer to them than then then maybe that draft position would have you think it feels like there's a little Trey Turner hate this off season just feels like he's going
Starting point is 00:24:41 late even in some of those NFBC drafts and I get it I mean he's let people down the past couple of years first year with the Philly is not good dealt with injury this past season so I get it I you know if he stays healthy I still think he's an elite player he showed that and I will just point out before well he was a hamstrue injury, right? Yeah, he missed six weeks because of it or something like that. Yeah, he missed from basically the start of May until the middle of June. Before the injury, he was on a 50 50 steel pace. I don't think he's going to be a 50 steel guy, but still, I don't know, top 10 in sprint speed in the majors, still showed that willingness to steal that much when he was healthy.
Starting point is 00:25:24 And then he only stole nine bases the rest of the way in 88 games. And I think people are are looking at that, but like, suffered a hamstring injury, stopped running as much. That, that, that, that's a tale as old as time. Mm-hmm. So I, I, I will say I wouldn't be stunned if Trey Turner had a 40 steel season. One other name I wanted to point out in the second round, Matt Olson went 20th overall. He went 45th in our first mock draft.
Starting point is 00:25:50 Is this just similar to Freeman? He just went earlier than he should have. I think it's just the variance of Matt Freeman. or Matt Olson, excuse me. I think there's just going to be a wide range of outcomes for Matt Olson in drafts this year. Yeah, I don't think we'll see this particular outcome very often ahead of Bryce Harper. I can't really come up with a good justification for that. That was an argument we were having last year when Matt Olson was coming off the 54 Homer season.
Starting point is 00:26:24 So to still be having that argument this year, I don't think you're going to see that much. Chris, to your point, the men and max pick on the NFBC for Matt Olson, 18 is the men pick, the max is 55. So it's a pretty big range. I just, you're probably not going to see gaps that big that often. I want to move on to pitching here because that went earlier in this mock draft as well. And is that because it's head to head points and pitching typically goes a little earlier in this format? Or is that because pitching just went way too late in our first mock draft?
Starting point is 00:26:59 Or maybe both. I think it's more the former. Now, that is head-to-headpoint's reputation as being a format that's friendlier for pitching. But I think it's applied the wrong way. And this is something I've been talking about for years, that it is also the more forgiving format for pitching, at least the way CBS standard scoring works, where you can make up. for like you can stream pitchers, two-star pitchers off the waiver wire easily and make up for not having a good pitching staff.
Starting point is 00:27:36 You can kind of build a whole rotation off the waiver wire over the course of the season if you don't draft well at that position. Because it's pitching production is so tied to volume, as we were talking about with Paul Skeens. Like you don't need necessarily the most dominant highest-end pitchers to have a successful, pitching staff.
Starting point is 00:28:00 So how I think you should apply the head-to-head points is better for pitchers. What's the word? That sort of... Like a mantra? Reputation. Yeah, the mantra, is to really load up in the middle rounds
Starting point is 00:28:18 on pitchers who you can feel confident. Like have a bench basically full of pitchers that you mix in based on matchups and two-star. weeks. And I just think that's a better formula for success. Wait, wait to start drafting pitchers until all the stud hitters are gone, basically. And that's pretty, that's more true in an era where nobody throws 200 innings, too. Yes. Because you, you, it's a lot harder to rack up the 600 point seasons as a pitcher. And also, in a head to head points, this is a fairly small difference. But pitchers, starting pitchers will make up probably a higher percentage. of starting lineups in a head-to-head points league. It's probably like a 35 to 30% difference once you account for for sparts throughout the season, but that also will inflate pitching at least a little bit.
Starting point is 00:29:13 Yeah. And to your point, Scott, about drafting elite hitters until there's none left and then just loading up on pitching. Head to head points leagues, they're shallower formats, right? There's no corner, there's no middle. There's three outfielder versus five. if there's one catcher versus two, you need more hitters that stand out
Starting point is 00:29:31 where you can, you know, when you're going head to head with your opponent, you need your hitters to kind of outperform theirs on a weekly basis, obviously. And the best way to do that is to draft those early and then kind of load up on pitching out. Especially just fewer lineup spots, you need to find how you're going to differentiate yourself
Starting point is 00:29:47 from your opponent. And it's much easier to fake it at starting pitcher than it is a hitter. So because they're shallower, the mid range of hitters, pretty interchangeable. And in fact, some of them are going to spill over
Starting point is 00:30:02 into the waiver wire during the season. So the ones you can count on to differentiate your team are those early round true stud types. And by the way, I'll point out that this approach, I think, makes even more sense for this particular draft pool
Starting point is 00:30:16 at starting pitcher. As I pointed out all off season, I don't see a whole lot of difference between number 15 in my rankings at starting. pitcher and number 50. So there's a very large group of several dozen pitchers that to me have mid high end potential. And you can get a lot of them even if you wait a long time at pitcher.
Starting point is 00:30:41 And one other point to belabor it slightly is you also just you can control the edge you have a hitter. And you can't really do that at pitcher because if I've got a rotation with Zach, Wheeler and Corbyn Burns and Paul Skeens and they're all making one start. And you've got like Tyler Anderson and Reed Detmer's and I don't know, who's another similarly scrubby pitcher Graham Ashcraft. If they all have to start weeks, your trio might outscore mine without actually pitching all that well.
Starting point is 00:31:19 You know, like it's not likely, but that is another way that like if you have a big pitching edge. Fairly often you won't in a head-to-head points league because two-star weeks only come around what every three or four weeks per pitcher. I feel like they are starting to be a little bit further. Yeah, no, that was, I think I should save things. I saw something recently that I think most starts last year came with five days rest for the first time ever. It was like the highest percentage of starts came with five days rest than ever
Starting point is 00:32:00 before in Major League Baseball. Like that is, I'd believe it. Yeah. You don't like guys don't make 35 starts anymore. Like if you do math on a five man rotation, it's like, oh yeah, you can make 32 starts at minimum. But if you're bound and it's like, no, guys like league leaders are around 31, 32 at most now. Yeah, because there are more six man rotations. Teams are just really smart about how they're spreading starting pitchers out too. It's how many times was Chris Sale in line for a two-star week? And it just, it didn't happen, right? They were really good at stretching him out and Ronaldo Lopez too.
Starting point is 00:32:35 And we see that with the more relievers turned starters. I think teams don't really want to throw too much on those guys. And as a result, they're kind of spreading out that workload. And like, I don't know, that 30% of the league now has like a recent Japanese start. also and those guys never make a start on every fifth day. So like, yeah, that's also a big deal. Did want to point out some of the big differences between that first draft and this one for some starting pitchers.
Starting point is 00:33:08 So Garretcher went 37th in this draft. He went 78th in the first one. Pablo Lopez 44th versus 74th. Blake Snow 46th versus 76th. And wait for this one. Jacob de Grom, 36th versus 123rd. The funny thing is that's the opposite of what it should be. Jacob de Grom should be going higher in a Roto league than a points league.
Starting point is 00:33:30 Yeah. Like that season where Jacob de Grom finished as a top 12 starter in 893 innings or whatever it was, that doesn't, that can't, like, definitionally cannot happen in a head-to-head points league. Yeah. So dominant ratio guys who you don't trust the volume are better for Roto and categories leagues. And like, like, now. Yeah. And yeah, I had a hard time wrapping my head around Jacob de Grom ahead of Chris Sale.
Starting point is 00:33:59 I get, I get regarding Chris Sale as an injury risk and downgrading it because of that. But it feels like you should downgrade DeGrom quite a bit more because of that, doesn't it? Let's take our final break when we return. We'll jump back into some picks that we're also surprising. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in recapping our first head-to-head. points mock draft of the off season and some other surprising
Starting point is 00:34:25 picks. Ryan Helsley, 35th overall. He was the second highest scoring reliever this year but a manual class A went 50 picks later, 53 picks later to be exact. So Ryan Helsley was just drafted too early, right? Well, I think the explanation
Starting point is 00:34:41 here is probably a like a systemic one. We're drafting with a a draft room that hasn't been fully updated for 2024 or 2025, excuse me. And so like guys aren't in the right order. The default still matters and impacts how. So like I blame the Olson pick on that.
Starting point is 00:35:06 But yeah, I don't know exactly what this one was, but I'm just putting it out there. Halsley, having led the majors and saves last year, that it seems very intentional that the guy took Helsley first as the first reliever. But this is more, you know, you get into format differences. And you're in a 15-team roto league. Yeah, closers are going to start going off the board as early as round three because of the scarcity that exists for saves. But you get into a head-to-head points league, it's opposite into the spectrum because every team only has two relief pitcher spots to fill.
Starting point is 00:35:40 And a lot of those are going to be filled by SPARPs, relief-eligible starting pitchers. Well, at least some of them will be. Enough. enough enough that really only like 15 to 20 actual closers are being drafted, period. So most of the league, they were after my own heart and waiting as long as they possibly could in drafting relief pitcher. But there was that one guy who had to jump in there. And I think he won't be doing that next time he drafts in this format, at least not with us.
Starting point is 00:36:10 Yeah. And maybe we could say the same thing about Spencer Stier, who went 48th overall. Stier is a fine player, 2.9 fantasy points per game. but, you know, shouldn't go ahead of Pete Alonzo and Corey Seeger and Josh Naler and guys like that. So could be part of the draft room, not fully updated yet. Or maybe someone just really likes Spencer Steer. Maybe they're related. Who knows?
Starting point is 00:36:30 Blake Snell. Wanted to ask you guys about Snell because I actually took him 47th overall as the SP12, just ahead of Framber Valdez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Logan Webb. I was surprised to see that, Frank. I was surprised myself that I actually did it. You know what? I wanted to take hitters. I wanted to take more hitters early on.
Starting point is 00:36:50 I started with three hitters. I wanted to keep doing that. When it got to the four or five turn, I just didn't really love the hitters that were there. You took Corey Seeger in the fifth. I thought about that, but I didn't want to clog up my utility spot. So I was like,
Starting point is 00:37:02 yeah, that's what I ended up doing. Yeah, Seeger, my second shortstop in round five. But yeah, you guys tell me, like Blake Snell, fourth round pick, SP12 in a points league, is that too early? It might be.
Starting point is 00:37:12 Look, I rank them even slightly, higher than that just among starting pitchers, but I don't want to draft my 12th or, I think, in my case, 10th starting pitcher that early and it had to points league. So I thought it was going to go, like you guys have been saying when I tell you where I rank Blake Snell, oh, you're going to get so much Blake Snell this year. And I got him where, I took him in the Roto League in what round? Chris tells you that. I don't tell you.
Starting point is 00:37:39 I kind of like Blake Snell too. What round did I take him in the Roto League? Seven or something like that. You know six or seven. So then he goes in round four here. So I never had a chance at him. And yeah, just based on those conversations we'd been having on the podcast, I was surprised you took him there.
Starting point is 00:37:53 Chris made a good point earlier that volume is the big concern for Snell too. So I think if you're going to go the extra mile form, it makes more sense than Roto. And so I don't know. I was surprised by the pick, Frank. Yes, a little surprise myself. Pablo Lopez has had a couple of decent seasons, but nothing spectacular,
Starting point is 00:38:19 certainly not on the level of like Blake Snell at his best. His last two seasons in this format, and he went a couple spots ahead of Blake Snell. His last two seasons in this format, 454, 451 points last year, 484, the year before. Blake Snell's been in the majors for nine years. One of them was his rookie year, let's say eight. Let's call it eight seasons.
Starting point is 00:38:41 He's beat. that twice. And it was the two years he won Siam. The problem with Blake Snell is he is far in a way the least efficient, good pitcher in baseball. Great pitcher in baseball,
Starting point is 00:38:56 let's say. He's reached 130 innings twice in a season. So like the upside for Blake Snell is he can get to that 500 point mark. He did that in 2023. The problem is that's the absolute ceiling for Blake
Starting point is 00:39:12 Snow. And you got to think there's going to be a lot of six-man rotation in L.A. He never averages six innings per start. I literally think he has never averaged six innings per start. And so I can win and see the case that Scott is making for Blake Snell in a Roto League. I think it's too early in a points loop. Yeah, that's probably, I just want to point out pretty close to his ceiling in a point. Let me, well, let me explain then why I have now ranked as high as I do, even in points league. Because particularly since they're a shallower format, particularly since you're going to be supplementing your rotation off the waiver
Starting point is 00:39:52 wire a lot, at least the way I play, that's the case. It matters a lot less to me total number of points than what you can average per start, how impactful you can be during those stretches where I am absolutely going to start you. and Blake Snell, he had the groin injuries early on. He was doing his normal early season struggle thing through June, either on the IL or struggling. From July on, when he became good Blake Snell, 20.64 points per start, which was more than Tarek's scuba averaged on. Sure. So he was carrying your team, carrying your pitching staff for those final three months.
Starting point is 00:40:34 Right, but like 2023, I think like, maybe you disagree, but I think 2023 is like pretty, close to like the best case scenario you could expect for Blake Snell for a full season. I was, I was just doing 20, 24 though. Right. No, no, but you were, but you were arbitrary end pointing it. I'm talking about a whole season. Because like a 20, 20 points per game is like a peak Justin Verlander type season. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:00 And that's how good Blake Snell is. That's not what he becomes good Blake Snell. Blake Snell's never done that for a full season. No, but we're not asking. Like maybe back in 2018, but that's a. a whole different landscape ago. 2023, he averaged 15.9 points per game, which is really good. But it was like a rounding error better than Zach Afflin and Chris Bassett that year.
Starting point is 00:41:25 And this is 225 ERA 12, 13K per 9, Cy Young winning Blake Snow. You know, like that's my thing. Like I get that like when he's locked in, he's as locked in as anyone. It's just he doesn't have the ability to rack up the volume over the course of the season the way. Right. Even like a Zach Gallen. So I think I'd be more hesitant. Like if we're playing like in a deep 20 team head to head points league,
Starting point is 00:41:53 I think where it's like, okay, these pitchers I'm drafted, I'm going to have to ride them through thick and thin. I'd be less inclined to pursue Blake Snell in that scenario. But we know the pattern Snell follows every. every year. Those of us who drafted them last year were able to lean on that and bench him until we knew went to start him and it worked out perfectly. And I think, I think we can keep applying that strategy to him going forward. All right, we've got to move on. I can just bench him is not a great argument for a guy being a top 12 starter though. We've got to move on. I just want to say,
Starting point is 00:42:31 Chris, you compare him to Pablo Lopez. If you just look at the full season last year, Blake Snell average more fantasy points per game than Pablo. Sure. And to Scott's point, I was going to make the same one. You know, if he does get hurt, you can, there's a better waiver wire in a league this shallow, so I guess you could replace him. But yeah, it's probably a little bit too early. I didn't love the pick at the time, but there was just nobody I really loved at that four or five turns. So I guess that's my excuse for drafting Blake's now. I wanted to mention Roki Sasaki. He went 106th overall right between Sunny Gray and Carlos
Starting point is 00:43:02 Rodon. How does that sound as a landing spot for Roki Sasaki? He'll never go that late again. Yeah, his NFBC ADP in just December is 73.1. Yeah, I think it's SP21. I don't know. Like, we're so afraid of injuries unless you get hurt in the minors or in this case in Japan. And then we're like, we don't know about injuries. Injuries don't matter.
Starting point is 00:43:28 But Roki Sasaki has never pitched more than 130 innings in the season. He has made 44 starts, I think, combined over the past two seasons. he's dealt with arm, oblique, and elbow injuries over the past two seasons and has thrown like 91 and 111 innings. And he's almost certainly going to be pitching every six day rather than every fifth day. So there'll be no two-star weeks. I think he's being overdrafted anyway. But he's not going to be a target in a head to head points leave for me. All right.
Starting point is 00:44:02 Let's play a little game. We're going to focus on young, exciting hitters. and their draft cost in this mock draft. Too high, too low, or just right. And we will start with Jackson Trujillo, who went 22nd overall, to me. Too high, too low, or just right in a points league? Seems fine.
Starting point is 00:44:24 Too high. Maybe, what did you say he went? 22? 22nd, yeah. I don't know that I am so bothered by the number itself as just who he. went ahead of. Turned Duran.
Starting point is 00:44:43 Yeah, I mean, I ranked Duran ahead of him, and Duran went eight spots later. I ranked Trey Turner ahead of him. I just think, like, those, those like tried and true studs, maybe you couldn't say that for Duran, but certainly you could say that for Trey Turner. Ralphout rappers. I'd want them all gone before I invested in the prospective stud, Jackson Tury, who I think has stud potential, it may work out. I just would rather be a little more cautious when the alternative is so high-end. And I think the next player we're going to talk about is also a good example of why Jackson Turyo may be won a little too early. But what if I also got Trey Turner, Scott? Does that make it okay?
Starting point is 00:45:21 Yeah, you did. That's true. So the next player is Jackson Merrill, who went 33rd overall the ninth pick, 10th pick of the third round. Too high, too low, or just right? Too low. I rank him and Jackson Churio back to back. seeing them go 11 spots apart was surprising to me. And Jackson Churio, like, what was this?
Starting point is 00:45:46 Strikeout rate as a rookie last year? Like 17%. He could turn out to be a points league stud. Yeah. Yeah. That was my thinking as well. I'm like, ah,
Starting point is 00:45:55 he's going to take another step. This is fun. Let's have fun. The one surprising thing, Jackson Churio walked more than Jackson Merrill. Jackson Merrill's walk rate was like 5%. It was really low. But even having said,
Starting point is 00:46:07 that he was better than Jackson Cherio in this format last year. So, yeah. What about Wyatt Langford, 57th overall, the middle of the fifth round, too high, too low, or just right? Maybe a little too high. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:25 Okay. What about Junior Caminero? Caminero. Hi. Caminero. So Jr. Camerero went 61st overall. He also went 64th in that first mock. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:46:44 Is he just going to go this high? Well, in CBS mocks, apparently he went about 40 spots higher than an FBC ADP and both. Which is surprising. Compared to my own rankings, where do I have Common Arrow? I wonder if that song just ratcheted up the hype so much that now I stand no chance of getting. Yeah, I rank him 122. Yeah, I've got him 100. So maybe I'm a common arrow hater.
Starting point is 00:47:12 I don't know. Yeah, we have to rescind your song rights, Scott. He went a spot ahead of Alex Bregman, who's always been a points league standout. Bregman didn't walk at his usual rate. His plate discipline numbers were a little off last year, so he wasn't as much of a standout, but he's still Alex Bregman and you still expect him to be close to a stud in this format. So that seemed way too high for Common Arrow. Love the upside, but you got a factor in downside too.
Starting point is 00:47:44 Next up we have James Wood who went 69th. Nice. Too high, too low, or just right? Just right. Chris? He did walk a lot. I feel like it's probably too high, but I guess with the upside, if it clicks, it could be fine, yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:04 The, let's see, NFBC ADP for James Wood is 50 and that's a roto format. So getting almost a 20-pick discount in a points league. Yeah, I think that's probably just right for James Wood. What about Jordan Westberg who went 75th overall? That is the beginning of the seventh round. Just right, I have him 76th. Yes. Chris?
Starting point is 00:48:26 I have not done full point rankings yet. It feels high. No. Doesn't have great plate discipline, especially doesn't walk much. I can see the fence being moved in, being a bonus for him and pushing him somewhere to that range. But he's 89th in Roto and will be probably lower in points for me. So I will point out, Westberg had more points per game than both Marcus Simeon and Ozzy Albies last year. Simeon and Albi's both underperformed.
Starting point is 00:49:03 but to me, Westberg is a crystal clear number five at second base after the obvious top four of Marte, Altovae, Albi's, and Simeon and those guys were all gone by the end of round four, right? And so to wait three more rounds
Starting point is 00:49:21 to get Westberg, I think that's appropriate. It doesn't seem like the consensus early on is with me on that. They put Westberg even further behind that top four, but I don't know. I'm applying some position scarcity reasoning here. He's going pretty close to Marcus Simeon in NFC drafts.
Starting point is 00:49:43 But that's because Marcus Simeon is 30 spots behind Osialbies in December. And Westberg is only 11 spots behind Marcus Simeon. So Simeon's going too late too. I think so, yes. Yeah, I think in early ADP, Simeon probably is both mock drafts, done, I've taken Jordan Westberg. I, oh man, I don't want to do this where I fall into, okay, I keep drafting a player early on, so then I just take that mindset into my rankings and real drafts, and I just keep taking that player. But I just feel like there's so much
Starting point is 00:50:18 to like. He's a young player. He hits the ball hard. Expected stats were awesome. It's a great lineup around him. I'm, yeah, I'm pretty much in on Jordan Westberg for next season. Let's wrap up by taking a closer look at each of our teams and our builds and some of our strategy, what we were thinking along the way. And we will start with Scott's team who was drafting sixth in this one. And Scott, you started your team with six hitters in a row. Bobby Whit Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Jaron, Jose Altuve, Corey Seeger, and Christian Yelich. Is this how you envision most of your drafts going in 2025?
Starting point is 00:50:57 Yes. Now, this is the furthest I'll probably take it, six rounds. And if I did that in a deep league, like a 15 teamer, that's probably not a good idea. But I basically followed the mantra of keep drafting hitters until all the studs are gone. You could question whether my sixth pick, Christian Yelich, is a stud. He certainly was for the time he was healthy last year. I mean, this is his better format. As good as his plate discipline is 3.78 points per game last year.
Starting point is 00:51:25 Jordan Alvarez, for instance, was 3.61. Bougie Betts was 3.75. So on a per game basis, Yelich, I'll perform both of them. It's coming back from back injury. Creates all kinds of question marks. But I think round six is particularly for this format, enough of a discount to kind of mitigate those risks. I had hoped not to take Yelich there.
Starting point is 00:51:47 I'd hoped to wait maybe another round. And in round six, sneak in, who was it? Oh, it was actually, no, wasn't him? It was, it was a pitcher. It was like Michael King, maybe. I don't know. He ended up going before my pick came up, so I took Yelich instead and waited another round to take my first pitcher.
Starting point is 00:52:12 If Chris Sale had fallen to, where did he end up going? Chris Sale ended up going early in round four. I was thinking about taking him. My pick was up five spots later. I ended up taking Jose Altuve. But if Chris Sale had made it to me in the middle of round four, I would have been tempted to do that. So it's not like I absolutely won't take a pitcher
Starting point is 00:52:41 in the first five or six rounds, but the value kind of has to be screaming at me to do it. And speaking of those pitchers, you started with six hitters in a row, and then you took five pitchers in a row after that. You took Luis Castillo, Bailey Ober, Spencer Strider, Joe Ryan, and Kodi Isenga. You actually snipe me a few times.
Starting point is 00:53:00 I was looking at Bailey Ober. I was looking at Joe Ryan. So I didn't love that, Scott, but this is what you were talking about, where from SP 15 to 50, just kind of hammering it in the middle rounds. Load up, get as many as I can, because I just, I don't have a lot of preferences within that range.
Starting point is 00:53:18 I have slight preferences. I think Michael King is my 14th pitcher. I just set him apart. So I do put him a little ahead of that 15 to 50 group and why I was going to take him potentially if he lasted to me in round six. But yeah, once we got into that 15 to 50 group, it's like, okay, I'll just take whoever my top ranked one is
Starting point is 00:53:42 when my pick comes up and I'll just keep taking them until we get to 50 and they're all gone and then I'll see how hitter looks. It's not going to play out that. perfectly in every draft. It just happened to in this one. There will be times when top five, six rounds I mix in a pitcher, maybe even two pitchers,
Starting point is 00:54:01 that middle range of the draft, I'll maybe grab a hitter, more likely in Roto where there's a lot more hitter spots to fill. But in this format where there's only the nine hitter spots to fill, I don't care what hitters they are if they're not studs. So once the stud hitters were gone, give me pitchers until there's a clear drop off a pitcher. All right, let's move over to Chris's team.
Starting point is 00:54:25 He was drafting eighth in this one, and you started your draft with four hitters in a row, Gunner Henderson, Yordaun Alvarez, Austin Riley, and William Contreras. How did you feel, I guess at the time, like how convicted were you to take the first catcher off the board? And as the draft went along, did you find yourself regretting it at any point?
Starting point is 00:54:45 I think you look at the whole thing, and let me see, who I could have taken instead of willing contriars. Because he is one of, I don't know, is he the only catcher who has a realistic chance to get to like 500 points? I could see Adley Rushman in a best case scenario. Because of his plate discipline.
Starting point is 00:55:04 But obviously there was a big difference between the two last year. Yeah, I could see like, I don't know, like, like that's kind of the thing, though. You look at the guys who, went after him and it feels like that's when you start to to see a little bit of a drop off at the other person like i guess kow shwarber but d h only feels especially limiting in a points league um so that's always tough al tuve semyin i don't know feels a little early i would have taken
Starting point is 00:55:37 seger the next time around but probably not in the fourth round so i don't know i feel okay about it you know we talk about you want every position spot to be as big of an edge as it can be. Well, William Contreras certainly is that. It's just there are a couple other spots, particularly first base, where I didn't really get an edge. And so, you know,
Starting point is 00:56:00 I don't know who the next first baseman taken. It was Pete Alonzo, actually. Would you do that different? Like, take Pete Alonzo fourth round instead of William Contreras and then just take whatever catcher when you got Ryan Malkasel? Yeah, that might
Starting point is 00:56:17 have been a better option. I don't know. I'll confess. I'm a little worried about Pete Alonzo, honestly. Your William Contreras in the middle of round four pick was the one that frustrated me the most as the draft was playing. Oh, good.
Starting point is 00:56:33 I love to hear that. I was up in two picks, and I had him queued up. I was like, I'll take that big advantage of catcher. Spicy. And you took him. So I settled for Jose Altovae, but it did feel like a settling situation. I don't know how my second base would have turned out
Starting point is 00:56:48 if, you know, if I hadn't taken out too vain, maybe I, maybe I would have ended up regretting taking William Contreras if it had happened. But I do think round four is the right time to do that, particularly in a one, particularly in a small lineup format like this, where you need as many advantages as you can get. I think my biggest problem is just that I waited too long for that first basement. It's not, it's less the William Contraris part and more that I just got a potential,
Starting point is 00:57:18 nothing at first. Like Mountcastle, if he stays in Baltimore, moving the fences in, that could help him, but that feels especially bad. I noticed that you took Boba Chet, who you like as your utility hitter, and the very next pick after that was Louisa Rice, who has first base eligibility. If you can kind of swap those two and give yourself a better first baseman. No, because, like, Luis Arise, I think the best case scenario is like 400,000. 150 points is probably the absolute ceiling for a guy that just doesn't walk, doesn't produce runs, doesn't hit homers. Bichette, we have seen a 500 point season from him before. I'm not necessarily saying he will get back to that, but we've also seen a 470 point season from him.
Starting point is 00:58:05 So I, I, Boba Chet is, I think, very clear of Luis Arias for me. A rise as a 354 hitter in 2023. Who played 147 games? So I missed it a little bit, but 435 is what he scored. So, yeah, I would say 450, the absolute best case scenario for him. And that comes out to like... Probably right around three points per game. Yeah, just a little under probably, yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:34 So, Chris, you started your draft with four hitters in a row after that. Four of your next five picks for pitchers. You took Garikull, Max Fried. Big Yankees fan here. I know. I was going to point that out. Justin Steele and Grayson Rodriguez You know
Starting point is 00:58:47 Were you pleased with you know Waiting on pitching a little bit in And then winding up with these This top four Not really It looks pretty good to me Like it looks good It just
Starting point is 00:58:59 That is A lot of entry risk Scroll down to it Frank I can't Oh right I should probably do that Here you go We've got the visuals here That's why you should watch us on YouTube
Starting point is 00:59:13 Yeah like All of those guys have, I think, that 500 point upside. We haven't, Grayson Rodriguez is the one we have not seen it really anywhere close from him. Obviously, Garicol, we've seen 600 points. Seasons. Freed has gotten to 500. Steel came very, very close. I think 500 is like, 500 is the true difference makers, 500 and above in that range.
Starting point is 00:59:39 So that's always what I'm looking for. but obviously Colfried and Steel or Colfrey and Rodriguez, excuse me, have missed time with upper body arm or connected to the arm injuries. So it, I feel,
Starting point is 00:59:58 I wish I had more sure things given what I invested in it. But, you know, when I look at the offense, first base is really the only place I don't feel good about. So I could, I don't know. I think,
Starting point is 01:00:11 it's okay. Yeah, everything else looks good. You've got William Contreras, Mount Castle, Bogartz, Austin, Riley, Gunner Henderson, Yordon Alvarez, Michael Harris, Sayas, Suzuki, and Bobichette. So it's really just first base and shallow league, maybe you find one along the way, something like that. That would be the hope. It's also partially, I think, reflecting that first base is just pretty bad right now. Yeah. Let's wrap up with a quick look at my team. I was drafting third in this one, and I started three hitters in a row, Aaron Judge, Jackson, Centurio and Trey Turner. Like I mentioned, I wanted to take
Starting point is 01:00:42 Jaron Duran and the third. I didn't want to start my team off with three outfielders. I actually wanted to keep drafting hitters, but again, I just, there was no one I really loved at that four or five turn. There was Pete Alonzo, Marcus Semyon, Teasca Hernandez. I like Corey Seeger, but, you know, didn't want to...
Starting point is 01:00:58 I think either of the Texas guys would have been the pick. Yeah, I didn't want to plug my utility early, and I was able to get Marcelo Zuna at the 6-7 turn. And we've talked this all season about... like those util hitters, they're just such good values. I just didn't want to plug it early on. Yeah, no, I mean, Marcelo Zuna, late six is great value.
Starting point is 01:01:18 I would have, I took Christian Yelich mid-six. I would have rather taken Yelich, but I'd already filled utility with Corey Seeger around earlier, which I don't necessarily regret, but that's the downside. You can't take advantage of that Ozuna pick when he's last to the end of round six. In terms of pitching,
Starting point is 01:01:34 I went with a little bit more of a mixed approach, kind of spreading it out a little bit. At the 4-5 turn, I took Blake Snell and George Kirby. Then I took Spencer Schwellenbach in the eighth round. I took Tanner Bybee in the 10th and Brian Wu in the 11th. I like it. I don't love it. I like it more in Roto.
Starting point is 01:01:54 Yeah. Yeah, it's one of those. I think sometimes it's kind of difficult for me to kind of rewire and go back and forth. And sometimes I draft players I like in Roto and points leagues just because I feel like they've fallen too far. but yeah, it probably is a better rotation for Roto. You could absolutely make it work, though. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:13 I mean, I'll leave this shallow. Yeah. And you've got some really interesting names on your bench. You've got at least one very interesting spark. So that helps also. I like, like your pitching staff's fine. It's not like I look at your pitching staff and say, oh, this is a huge weakness for this team.
Starting point is 01:02:31 It's definitely workable. And then I look at your starting lineup. And, you know, I'm the one who's spent, first six picks on hitters, and yet I look at your starting lineup, and it looks like there are fewer holes than mine has. You do have Mark Vientos at third base. Could work out, but it's a little, it's a little shaky, but I have Matt Chapman at third base. And meanwhile, you have Rio Muto a catcher versus my Gabriel Moreno, my third outfielder. Yours is Stephen Kwan, which is a great points league option. Mine is Dylan Cruz. A lot of upside, but, you know, may not be ready to
Starting point is 01:03:06 to really live up to it yet. So your lineup looks most plug-in-play even more than my does for not going quite as extreme with the hitter, heavy approach early. All right, well, if anyone wants to check out all of our teams, all the picks, whatever rounds you want to see.
Starting point is 01:03:25 Again, the results are live on the site. I'll put the link in the podcast and YouTube description if you want to check that up. We are going to wrap there for Scott. Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today, please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next week.
Starting point is 01:03:42 Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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