Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 Relief Pitcher Recap! Devin Williams to Mets & Ryan Helsley to Orioles! (12/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 2, 2025

What is the state of relief pitching and saves in Fantasy Baseball (2:50)? ... Will Mason Miller be a closer next season (6:04)? ... Let's look back at preseason relief pitcher ADP (13:50). ... Devin Williams just signed with the Mets and Ryan Helsley signed with the Orioles over the weekend (20:55). ... Let's get into the Top-12 from this past season, starting with Aroldis Chapman (30:15). ... Edwin Diaz bounced back after a rough 2024 (34:48). ... Jhoan Duran was finally used as a traditional closer in Philly (37:04). ... Dan Wilson got the most out of Andres Muñoz (41:20). ... Robert Suarez made a lot of people look silly (42:50). ... Josh Hader was shut down with a shoulder injury (45:20). ... Carlos Estevez is walking a fine line (48:59). ... David Bednar rebounded in a big way (54:30). ... Cade Smith is one of the best in baseball (56:43). ... Kenley Jansen keeps getting it done (58:42). ... Emilio Pagan was a league-winner in 2025 (1:00:30). ... We wrap up with early 2026 relief pitcher rankings (1:03:10). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Well, it's a good day to talk about relievers. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today, and welcome to December.

I am Frank Stample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it's our final position recap for the 2025 season. We're breaking down relief pitchers, preseason ADP, top 12 finishers, early rankings, and just in time. Devin Williams just signed with the New York Mets tonight when we're recording this, and Ryan Helsie signed with the Orioles over the weekend. Hence, good time to talk about relievers. Let's start off with the state of relief pitching,

and it's always an interesting exercise to do in early December. when there's still many things that need to happen, and there's so much up in the air at this position. We've had eight relievers with 30 plus saves in back-to-back seasons, which is actually down from the three years prior to 2024 and 2025. So Scott, we will start with you. How do you feel about the state of relief pitching

and maybe more importantly, just closers and saves right now in fantasy? I mean, I feel pretty good about it. I still think we have mostly put behind that era of of like closing committees and oh, the leverage guy, we're going to use him in the seventh or eighth

instead of the ninth. I'm not saying that doesn't go on anymore, but I think in the last two or three years, teams have given us a clear idea of who's going to, who's going to be the clear favor for saves, at least within the first few weeks of the season. They still don't announce it a lot of times before the year.

Of course, in a lot of cases, you can tell exactly who it's going to be. But I don't feel, except in some of those really deep leagues like the 15 teamers, I don't feel a lot of pressure to secure saves early because I think, again, in normal-sized leagues, there are enough to go around. Now, what makes it difficult this time of year, and of course, this is always true to a degree, but especially this year, so much. many closer caliber relievers on the free agent market. Three of them have been scooped up already.

So that helps. But there are still several more, more than three of them that are on the open market. And one of them probably won't be closing, may not be closing. In some cases, I'm not even sure exactly who you're talking about. Devin Williams. Well, Devin Williams just got scooped up. Yeah. No, no, that's what I'm saying.

Among the three who have signed, one of them may not be closing. I have no idea, but... Right. Go ahead. Continue your point. Well, the ones who are available still, so I guess let's just address this. The ones who have signed, Ryssel Iglesias back in Atlanta expected to close. Ryan Helsley, with the Orioles, expected to close.

Yeah. and then Devin Williams, who we'll get into in a bit. But there's still Edwin Diaz out there. There's still Robert Suarez out there. There's still Kenley Jansen out there. There's still Pete Fairbanks out there. Emilio Pagan? Emilio Paghan, sure.

So that's four right there who very recently we've known as closers. I doubt they all sign as closers. and if one of them signs on with the team as a setup man that leaves a closer vacancy elsewhere. So there's still plenty to sort out. There's likely to be some trades that happen involving these guys. Even some of the players that were presuming

our closers right now, we don't have total assurance for that. The number one reliever being drafted right now, Mason Miller, don't know if he's a closer or not. Exactly. And I have many. thoughts. But one specifically, one specifically about Mason Miller, which is that I don't think I would

want to draft him at all if he's not closing. That might be an overreaction. That might be too harsh of a stance. We've seen a couple of pitchers make the transition from relieving to starting in recent years and thrive or at least find some success. Michael King being the most obvious example for exactly one. season. Clay Holmes was good for about half a season. Seth Lugo was good for a year and a half, two years. Rinaldo Lopez? I just don't think Mason Miller can start. I just don't think he is

physically capable of holding up as a starting pitcher and he would basically be do not draft for me. And to be clear, you're saying you would not draft him, not he wouldn't deserve to be drafted. Yes, someone would draft him. The upside is worth it, I suppose, but it would not be me. And so to take him as the number one reliever with a top 45 pick, which is the price right now, I could not justify that price. I'm going to write my way too early bus tomorrow. And just reminding me, I should probably get Mason Miller on that list since I feel. strongly about that one.

Here's the thing about that Mason Miller's scenario you've presented. This is entirely happening. This whole idea has only come on the ground level, right? This is just people theorizing, oh, they gave up a consensus top five prospect and Leo DeVries to get Mason Miller. So he was a starter in the past in the minor leagues. Maybe this is what they want to do with him. But we haven't, the Padres themselves have given no indication that this is an idea they're even considering.

Right? That's, that's how I understand. There was one quote. I believe it was from A.J. Preller who said they might try out. Like, it's undetermined right now what Mason Miller and Adrian Moryone's roles are going to be for next season. Yeah. So he hears from 97.3. 3 the fan, SD.

When asked about keeping Igeron-Marehon in the bullpen, A.J. Preler likened the situation of Mason Miller's and was very proud of the season he had. He did not say he'll definitely remain in the bullpen and that conversations will be had about his role moving forward. That's not nothing. It's not something. Yeah.

It's somewhere in between nothing and something. And that's my frustration with talking about starting relief pitchers for fantasy. to see is it's hard enough projecting what pitchers are going to do. And then it's hard enough projecting what pitchers are going to do when you're basing it on sample sizes of 60 to 70 innings like we are. That would all be hard enough. But then you also have to try to project what teams are going to do and which

managers are going to favor which guys and which managers are going to have a longer leash for which and it's it's all, uh, much more art than science, I would say, when it comes to talking about relief pitchers. And then, you know, Scott, you said something about the, we're kind of past the era of the bullpen by committee or teams being cagey or teams just outright not going with a closer. And that is true. But one thing that is unique about this era in professional baseball is the Dodgers signing Kirby Yates when they already had a closer and then signing Tanner Scott or the Mets potentially signing Devin Williams to a $50 million deal

and then I'm still assuming they're going to sign Edwin Diaz but I don't know how you know guaranteed that is they are still pursuing Edwin Diaz I would imagine there are a lot of teams pursuing Edwin Diaz and so the Mets may come up short in that pursuit yeah but but there's no guarantee Kevin Williams is the closer yes there have always been throughout baseball history teams with multiple closer caliber relievers in their bullpen but what is different about this era compared to 10 15 20 whatever years ago is teams used to view closer as a distinct discrete position and teams would often not want to have two closers on their team whether they didn't want to pay the price or they didn't want to deal

with the clubhouse issues that would stem from that or whatever. Teams would often have a closer and then really good closer caliber set up, man. And that's just out the window. It's just high leverage relievers. And one guy will end up being the closer and one guy won't, and they'll deal with that. And that's the distinction here is that I think you have the halves in the back end of the bullpen. There will be teams with several closers. and then you'll have teams like the Rangers last year

who just didn't have a closer basically all season. Not for lack of trying. And so it's a frustrating position to talk about, at least for me personally, because of all those factors. It definitely is, and that's why we've seen more people kind of transition into safe plus holds

or just a holds category or just adding an extra category for holds, whatever it might be. I think it's fine. kind of take some of the craziness. It might not be fun for everybody out of fantasy baseball. I kind of like chasing the craziness, but it's not for everybody. I get that.

Scott, something you mentioned earlier on is that you can wait at the position and you can still wind up getting some really good closers for fantasy. Last season, there were 14 pitchers with more than 25 saves. Seven of them had an ADP outside of the top 140. So just kind of

reiterating that point. I'm not so sure that it's sticky every single year that it's just because it happened last year. It's going happen the next year and the next year after that. But I think pretty often we will at least get a handful of closers that go outside the top 150 or just weren't expected to be the guy and just kind of break out at the position. It's just the nature of the beast. And it's the again, the size of leagues I'm talking about. I know some diehards are all about the 15 team roto league where any emerging safe source out the waiver wire is going to command a bundle. And so you can't really

really, you can't really piece together saves over the course of the season in a row. I get that. But that is a small percentage of the people actually playing fantasy baseball who play in that type of league. Twelve team leagues or fewer. Now, even if you don't land one of those surprise guys who gets 25 saves, you know, you ride Jose Ferrer for a while. You ride Luke Williams for a while.

You don't have to just land that one guy that you keep in your lineup all. season. Lineups are changing. You're making moves off the waiver wires. Changes happen. And you can cobble together a nice saves total without investing big in the category. And I find that even when I do invest big in saves, which is rare, a lot of times it backfires because there's still a lot of volatility here even with the supposedly safe guys. And it really backfired this year.

Yeah. Let's find out how that went. Let's take a look back at preseason top 12 ADP at Relief Pitcher. This is according to Fantasy Pros, which included Yahoo, CBS, NFBC fan tracks, and RT Sports Drafts. The number one reliever drafted was Emmanuel Claisse. Peace. Devin Williams after him, Josh Hater, Edwin Diaz, Mason Miller, Ryan Helsley, Reisel Iglesias, Felix Bautista, Andres Munoz, Yohan Duran, Ryan Walker, and Robert Swares.

according to the Fangraph's Player Raider, five of those finished inside of the top 12. And it really wasn't a great year at the top of the relief pitcher market. Class A, obviously, you know, everything he went through, the scandal, and he got placed on administrative leave. Devin Williams lost his job twice. Mason Miller, not for anything that he did wrong, but got traded to a team where he became the setup man. Same thing happened for Ryan Helsley, and then he was awful on top of that. And then just like Felix Bautisa got hurt and Ryan Walker lost his job. So it was not the best position, it was not the best year for paying up at Relief Pitcher in 2025.

If we look back at breakouts and bus, a roll of Chapman. I mean, a re-breakout, it's just, it's crazy to think the career that he's had. And at 37 years old, he just had maybe the best season of his career, at least one of the three best seasons of his career. So pretty crazy stuff there for Rolda Chapman. And then at Bust, again, you can kind of like take your pick of all these names. And I know we're about to talk about him. I really do think Devin Williams was one of the biggest busts in all fantasy baseball because he had an ADP inside the top 50.

Maybe not in all leagues. You know, maybe it was like 60, 70 and other leagues. But he was a top three reliever drafted. And he lost his job twice. His ratios weren't great. And obviously it was just a big letdown for fantasy. Well,

especially because like a lot of closers, if they're bad, okay, they lost their job, you can drop them. Devin Williams kind of stayed relevant enough that he kept hurting. You were kind of in limbo for a while then. Yeah.

That was, it was bad, man. That was, the weird thing is it, it never felt like there was a good explanation for why he struggled. I don't know if I, he can't handle the New York lights. The pinstripe so heavy, Chris. But the stuff still looked good. He still got a ton of whiffs. He still got good strikeout numbers.

There were stretches where he was hugely impactful for the Yankees, if not necessarily for fantasy. I'm still pretty bullish on him overall if he's the closer. But yeah, it's, um, yeah, big if it was a, I don't have a good explanation for why he was so bad. And so I think initially, and I share in this disappointment, oh, he's, he signed with a new team, but it's still a New York team. But I do think that citing the, the pressure cooker that is New York, citing that, citing that, the, the, the pressure cooker that is New York, citing that. citing that as the explanation for Williams struggles is that's really just an absence of a better explanation. And I will note there was an article came out in November.

Williams discovered in August that he was rushing his delivery to help hold base runners. This is his own explanation, rushing through his delivery. In August, he discovered this. He fixed it. his final 19 appearances so after August 10th I believe it was final 19 appearances 250 ERA.89 whip 17k per 9 I don't know that I necessarily need that explanation

I don't know that there's really any teeth to it I'm just going by what Williams himself said but even if I didn't have that explanation just looking at the fact that his pitches had the same shape and velocity that he still had basically the same swinging strike rate he always does, that he vastly underperformed his ERA estimators. Like, I would bet on Williams bouncing back.

In any case, I would have rather he not stayed in New York, sure. But as long as he's getting the chance to close somewhere, I would invest in Devin Williams as a top 12 reliever still because it's perfectly plausible to me that he bounces back with, top five production and it's just the reliever we always knew him to be in Milwaukee. Before we hit our first break here on December 2nd, let us know in the comments in the live chat who is going to lead baseball in saves next season. And after you do that, make sure to like this video. Subscribe for more 2026 fantasy baseball content on YouTube or wherever you listen to

podcast. Let's take that break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball all today before we get into recapping, get back into recapping relievers from this past season, let's go through the news and notes and we just talked about Devin Williams, but I guess let's let everybody know all the terms of the deal. About an hour ago, the Mets signed Devin Williams to a three-year, $45 million deal plus a $6 million bonus. $15 million in this deal were deferred. $5 million per each year of the deal was deferred overall. And then right after this signing, we got reports that the Mets are still interested in re-signing Edwin Diaz. So it's kind of impossible to talk about Williams's role and value for next season

until we see where Diaz winds up. I mean, you could talk about it like, hey, if he is the closer, you know, he's worth drafting inside the top 100 or top 80 picks. If not, you know, he probably doesn't really matter for fantasy at all. But, Scott, you pretty much just said it. You think there's a pretty good chance that he bounces back if he's. I already did this, Frank. We didn't need to go back to this.

No, I'm ranking him as if he's the closer for now. And if it turns out they bring back Edwin Diaz or bringing whoever else Robert Suarez or anybody else who might bump Devin Williams out of the role, then I won't rank him as a closer anymore. But as a closer, as the Mets closer, Devin Williams is my number 12 reliever. And he could be a steal there. If you were drafting right now, though, for a league that is playing out, would you take him as the number 12 RP? I would not.

Not with that. I don't think you'd. No. Not with that report. No, I don't think I would. I'm not trying to put you down or call you out or anything. I'm just, I'm saying that I,

because what you're doing is you're writing as if what we know. Yeah. Of our audience that might be doing that. Yes. Yes. Statistically, nobody is drafting now. Literally some people. are drafting now, but statistically it's nobody. And so speaking to the nobody,

uh, yeah, let's just wait and see. But I plan on Devin Williams being a top 12th reliever. The early ADP is 98.1 right now. And that is as the 12th reliever off the board, going right next to Trevor McGill. So, uh, if Edwin Diaz does sign elsewhere, again, this could be a steal. If Edwin Diaz goes back to the Mets, that's a waste of a top 100 pick, I would think on, uh, on Devin Williams. The Orioles. signed Ryan Helzley this weekend to a two-year $28 million deal. That includes an opt-out after the first season. There was some speculation that a team will try Helsley as a starter,

but the Orioles do plan to use him as their closer. He had 21 saves with the Cardinals last season before getting traded over to the Mets where he was truly awful. Chris, what are your expectations for Ryan Helsley in Baltimore? He was tipping his pitches, I think, is the explanation when he got to the Mets. He solved it over the final few outings, if I remember correctly. Seven scoreless innings. Yeah, it seemed like there wasn't much concern about that moving forward.

One, the idea that Ryan Helsley could transition to being a starter crazy. Absolutely insane. That struck me as like, I don't understand how anybody thought that could be a workable idea. I'm glad nobody's going to try it. I do expect the Orioles to be an 80 plus win team in 2026, potentially a 90 win team. And so I think Ryan Helsley will get a lot of save opportunities on a pretty good team. I think he's a good pitcher. Obviously now, after seeing what happened last season, you do have to account for some downside risk.

But I think ranking Ryan Helsley in the top 12-ish range makes sense. I think Devin Williams is probably a better pitcher. So if you want to prioritize Devin Williams ahead of him, at least as far as we know right now, I think that makes sense. But like when you compare him to Jeff Hoffman or Trevor McGill's role in Milwaukee seems a little up in the air, you know, whoever ends up like closing for the Cubs or like there are a lot of things. things up in the air right now. So I think Hellsley's not going to be a top 12 reliever for me, but he's not going to be far off. He's 13th for me in Roto. So he's right behind Devin Williams. I do think it's worth noting here that even though there is an explanation for him tipping his pitches and seven scoreless innings to finish the air, I mean, that's not, that's

not total proof. And I think if if there were industry wide, zero concern, about Helzley's ability to bounce back from this rough year overall and especially rough time with the Mets. If there were no concerns within the industry, he would have gotten more than a two-year, $28 million deal. I mean, that seems like an offer that has a lot of worries attached to it, given Helzley's past as a closer, how good he was in the role in 2024.

That said, I mean, I'd prefer him to Carlos Estevez, who had a big save total, but everything else looked pretty gross for him in 2025. I'd prefer him to Trevor Miguel with his issues. I'd prefer him to Daniel Palencia, who had good underlying numbers, but doesn't have much of a track record. So there's a certain point where you can only worry so much when it comes to a role this volatile.

And I think I feel pretty good about Helsley heading into next year. What about Kenley Jansen? He's going to be a closer somewhere, right? Yeah. Like, I don't think Kenley Jansen's getting out of bed to set up for someone, right? I doubt it. That's not going to happen. I doubt it.

Unless he just sees the end and he already has a ring, right? He was part of the first Dodgers World Series championship team. So he doesn't have to chase that ring necessarily. But maybe he wants another one. Yeah, I expect he's closing. I rank him as a closer. I rank him behind all of those guys because the ERA tends to run high and because he often has an IL stint that bumps his innings below 60.

But he's a fine number two closer in my mind, Kenley Jansen. Yeah, the early ADP, by the way, for Ryan Helsie, there have been three NFBC drafts since Saturday, so an incredibly small sample size. But Helzley's ADP was 74 in those three drafts, going right between Carlos Estevez and Robert Suarez. It does seem a little rich there for Helsley. perhaps people just getting excited about him signing right away.

This seems newsworthy. Ronald Acuna has played three games in the Venezuelan Winter League. He already has six steals. So might not mean anything or might mean he's about to go crazy in 2026. The early ADP on Acuna is 9.7 right between L.E. Dela Cruz and Julio Rodriguez. Wasn't there a quote hinting of him getting back to his base stealing ways? He won the comeback player of the year. and at the awards, I think they asked him,

hey man, are you going to get back to running next year? And he said, quote, you know me. Oh, yeah. That was a non-answer. But maybe this is what he meant. I mean, it's kind of surprising to me that the Braves let him do this in the off-season. It's kind of surprising the Braves are letting him play at all. Right.

That's what I meant. And so if they're letting him, run this freely. And I never had reason to believe the team was preventing him for running last year. But this is all the more reason to believe that that's going to be a non-issue going forward. And all the more reason I think to draft Acuna as high as fifth overall, as high as fourth overall, really. Can I ask you a question? Have we talked about the L.E. Dela-Cruce thing on the podcast?

I know we speculated a lot down the stretch. We got the confirmation that he had a quad strain starting at the end of July through the end of the season. It was grade two, which I think we didn't know. The fact he was playing through it made anything grade one, but it was grade two. I might rank both Ronald Acuna and L.A.L. Dela Cruz's top six players for next year. They might both be top five. I know that's like they're going like ninth and eighth or whatever, so it's not like, oh, hot take. But like I think that's, I think they're going to steal 40 bases again.

next year. The latest hot stove rumors, the Red Sox are apparently keeping their eyes on Cole Regens to see whether or not the Royals might be looking to make some moves this offseason. The Blue Jays and Marlins were among teams interested in Pete Fairbanks. And according to Hector Gomez, the Mets have emerged as favorites to sign for Amber Valdez. Although David Stearns has typically avoided long-term contracts for pitchers, perhaps he's about to change his tune. And we know the Mets need a high-end starting pitcher, so that would make some sense. We'll see what happens over the next couple weeks, next month or so. I think winter meetings are next week, so things are starting to heat up here, hot stove. All right, let's get back into relievers,

top 12 relief pitchers from this past season. This is according to the Fangraphs Player Rader. So we're taking a look at this from a roto slash categories perspective using the traditional five pitching category. So we're not talking about holds or saves plus holds as categories, just saves as being the main category among those five pitcher categories. The number one reliever, a role is Chapman. Age is just a number. Had one of the best seasons of his career at 37 years old. Just how dominant was he?

He led all qualified relievers in ERA, WIP, FIP, Sierra, batting average against, and was second in K-minus walk rate. 32 saves were his most since 2019. Scott, we don't know the answer to this, but I'll ask you anyway, you can kind of figure it out. But Chapman's biggest question is, can he maintain this career best walk rate

again in 2026? Because that seemed to fuel this rebate after a roll this Chapman. Yeah, I think he can because he knows how to do it now. Apparently, he was gripping his pitches too tight. And so he loosened his grip, got better control.

The numbers speak for themselves, a 117 ERA and 0.70 whip. Those are the best marks he's ever delivered. And this is like a Hall of Fame caliber closer. I don't know that Chapman will get in the Hall of Fame because few closers do. But he certainly has a case for as long as dominant as he's been and as long as he's done it. And so to have a career best year along with a mechanical change like that, I think gives me a lot of confidence. now he will be 38 and so that chisels away at that confidence

but I generally with aging players I don't expect a drop off until I see signs of it and certainly we didn't in a career best season from Chapman you do have to I guess maybe it serves as a little bit of a tiebreaker if there are several relief pitchers

in the same tier and I value them about the same statistically. I'll slide the aging one to the end just as an extra safeguard there in case the bottom falls out because of his age. But I'm not expecting that for Chapman next year. Okay. Here's the problem with relief pitchers, right? Let's say we had a starting pitcher who threw 212 and two thirds innings in a season where they walked six. per nine. I understand that's ridiculous, but just stay with me. That's a roughly full season's worth of innings where he had six walks per nine. And then he had, let's call it two months,

where he walked two per nine. You would probably expect the 200 innings to be way more predictive moving forward than the two months where his walk rate was a third of what it had been over those 200 innings. Of course, Erald's Chapman's 61 innings last year represented a full season, but it's 61 innings compared to six walks per nine over his previous four seasons, let alone he's 37, 38 years old. I don't know if I expect his ERA to be triple what it was. last season. Mm-hmm. I would certainly expect it to be double what it was last season.

Double would still be really good. Double would still be really good. The 117 ERA, you never expect that to be repeated. 0.70 whip, you never expect that to repeat it. Will his numbers be elite? That is the question I heard. I don't know exactly how Frank phrased it, but the question I heard is, will he be elite again?

I'll be fading, or oldest Chapman. I'm not going to, like, I have him ranked 6th. So it's not like I'm like way lower on him than you or the consensus, but I'm not going to draft a roll as Chapman this year. It just given how inherently volatile relievers are, given how inherently volatile I think he is, I just think it makes more sense to fade what he did in 2025 than by it. Fair enough. The number two reliever this past season was Edwin Diaz. after some bad luck in 2024, he got back to his elite level this past season,

a 163 ERA, a 0.87 whip over 13K per 9. The only thing I would point out is his fastball velocity is down about two ticks from before his knee surgery, but it hasn't affected his performance at all, Chris. So I would pretty much just expect Elite Diaz, and especially if he gets the contract he's looking for, if some team gives him 80, 90, 100 million, I mean, yeah, if some team be, buys him, I pretty much buy him. Unless he's setting up for Devin Williams.

No, yeah. I have no, I have never had, like, there's been some up and down throughout Edwin Diaz's career. It's actually an even odd year thing. His odd years are phenomenal. ERA's starting with one. Literally every odd year going back to 2018 now. And then his even years are really weird, 352, 345. 559.

He's the same guy every time, though. It's not like there's like huge overhauls in Edwin Diaz's game and he's like trying out new pitches and tinkering. Like, it's nothing. He's going to throw 50% fastballs and 45% sliders and sometimes weird things happen in 16-ning sample sizes. And I never care. He's, if he's not the best closer in baseball, he's right next to the best closer in baseball. not literally in the Mets bullpen this year. I don't think Devin Williams is the best closer in baseball.

You know what I mean. Yeah. And oddly enough, Edwin Diaz had less than 30 saves last season. That just kind of feels like one of those weird statistical anomalies. Because for his whole Mets career, his save total ran low. And I don't really have a good explanation for it. I know there were times with certain managers when they'd play the leverage game and bring him in in the eighth. But not enough that I would expect him to.

never get to 35 or even 33 saves his entire state. It's just one of those kind of weird happenstance things that could just happen for a closer. And that goes back to I think why Chris hates his position. The number three reliever this past season was Yohan Duran had a completely healthy season. Was traded at the deadline to the Philadelphia Phillies where he was used as a more traditional closer than he was in Minnesota. He's an elite arm.

The only thing I would nitpick here is that he does give up a little bit harder contact, which leads to a few more hits and a higher whip than you're used to getting from an elite closer, right? You're not getting a sub one whip, or at least we haven't seen that yet out of Yuan Duran. But everything else, Scott, the ERA, the strikeouts, the saves. I mean, it should be all top-notch for Yohan Duran. Yeah, I mean, my biggest concern over the years for Yohan Duran is out the window now. Rocco Baldelli was who's now not with the twins anymore of course

but when he was he was among the least committed to having a full-time closer and would often play games with Duran's usage but once Duran was traded to Philadelphia he was used as a tried and true closer and was dominant actually as K-per-9 rate went up by two

after joining the Phillies small samples and all. And I would say overall, Duran's K per night rate tends to run lower than the class of relievers we've mentioned so far. So it puts them

maybe a tier down or at least at the back end of this elite tier, but I would be thrilled to have him as my number one reliever. Yeah, you're getting 80 strikeouts instead of 100.

Yeah. The difference between a 1.1 whip, which is what he had last year and a 0.8 whip over 70 innings, 18 hits plus walks. That's not nothing. Over the course of the roughly 1,400 innings you're going to get from your

pitching staff and fantasy, you're really not going to notice it though. That's what, 0.001? Like 1-1,000th roughly? Yeah, that's fair. It's not nothing, but it shouldn't really scare you off. All right, let's take our final break when we return back into our relief pitcher recap right after this.

Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. our final position recap for 2025, and we are looking at relievers. We'll pick it back up with the number four reliever this year. It was Andres Munoz. Thank you, Dan Wilson, for finally using Munoz, like a traditional closer, had a career high, 38 saves. He never had more than 22 before this season.

Lots of whiffs, lots of walks. Also does a great job avoiding home runs since he gets a ton of ground balls. Chris, Andres Munoz has entered elite closer territory, and it looks like he's here to stay. Yeah, I don't really have much to say. He's filthy. He's got a manager who trusts him and believes in him. And I guess more specifically believes in the closer role as its own thing.

So I'm actually kind of surprised he was only fourth last season, given a sub two ERA and a 103 whip and a bunch of strikeouts. But yeah, he's awesome. also most notable cat dude in baseball. Big fan of Matilda Munoz on the podcast. So shouts to Andres Munoz for that. Nice. He only had three wins, Chris.

That's why he was. That's probably, I was trying to look. No, that is actually like, Yoan Duran had seven. Yeah, Roll the Shaman had five. Yeah. Duran had seven wins. So that, yeah, that's.

Which is not something you should strategize around. I'm just pointing out in retrospect how, how it happened that Munoz was four. There is a reliever coming up that was not a closer that had 13 wins that we're going to quickly talk about a little bit later on. Have we already mentioned him? Am I thinking of the same guy? Yes, we have already mentioned him today. The number five reliever was Robert Suarez and I, among many, was pretty worried about Suarez coming off a rough second half in 2024. Boy, did he make me look silly.

He led the National League with 40 saves. He worked in more changeups so he wasn't as fastball reliant. Now he's a free agent looking for a big payday. Scott, do you trust him now, Robert Suarez, as one of the top closers in fantasy moving forward? It depends where you put, where you draw the line at top closes. Would you be okay with him as your RP1? As someone who likes to go thrifty a closer, sure. I'd be fine with Robert Suarez.

And actually my biggest regret of 2025 is that I didn't stick to that stance. You guys, you guys talked to me. out of it. The one team we shared together, we did get Robert Suarez. That is the one team where I ended up with it myself. And it was chicken. Late, very late in draft prep season, I moved Jordan Romano ahead of Robert Suarez in my rankings. And so in my biggest money league, I had the choice of those two.

And I went Romano. We don't have to talk about that, Scott. And that's actually the pronunciation, by the way. No, no, no. Yeah. You are saying it correctly. We always called him Romano. Romano. Yeah, Robert Suarez, look, when things go wrong for him, it can get ugly. He had a couple appearances this year where he got throttled. So it's, I think there is a lot of bust potential here, but I don't have a concrete reason to say, this is why Robert Suarez is going to bust. I predict it will happen right now. And there's so much volatility inherent to closers anyway that I'm not sure it's

worth worrying about. Like if people were actually drafting him fifth where he finished last year, okay, I think you could do better. But I rank him eighth. So I'm not that far off. And I think as confident as you can be in any reliever that far down the relief pitcher rankings, you can be confident in Robert Suarez. And you're pretty much in line with the market right now, Scott.

Robert Suarez is the ninth reliever being drafted based on early NFBC ADP. Very interested to see what the contract looks like for Robert Suarez and what team gives that out to him this offseason. The number six reliever was Josh Hader who was having another ridiculous season, a 205 ERA.8.5 whip, the best expected ERA and swinging strike rate among qualified relievers. And then he was shut down in August with a capsule sprain in his throwing shoulder. As of last week when we're recording this, So that would be late November.

He said he was back to normal. Should be all good for spring training. But Chris, the injury does create at least a little bit of doubt, a little shroud of doubt for Josh Hader for next season. Yeah, well, and especially because it does come after a notable change in his usage, where he went from his last like three or four years before getting to Houston. He basically never threw multiple innings. and his innings totals hadn't topped 60 since 2019.

His first year in Houston got up to 71. Had multiple multi-inning outings. He was well on his way to another 70-inning season last year. And that does give you a little edge when you get an extra 15 or so innings at the rate Mason Miller throws. You're talking about 20 to 25 extra strikeouts. And one of the few closers who can get you 100, strikeouts in a season and I don't know how that's going to impact his usage in 2026. I remember there was

there was some talk about him kind of you know he was used so heavily early on his career. It was always multi-inning outings and on back-to-back days and you know he was ragging up 80 inning seasons with the brewers early on. And I remember reading something that he had like kind of requested he not be used that way and then it changed when he got to Houston. He got his big contract. Maybe having the guaranteed money, he's fine with however they want to use him. But I do worry if there might just be a slight step back in that volume. I don't think it's enough to change how you view Josh Hater. Ultimately, you're here for the saves and the elite ratios. And if he gets you 88 strikeouts instead of 105, you know, that that's not really changing the needle or moving.

the needle, but it's if you're looking at him essentially tied with Edwin Diaz as the top closer or whoever, it's a potential tiebreaker. And maybe you guys view this differently, but Scott said something earlier about if you're worried about injuries for a reliever or maybe even age, you move those guys to the back of a tier. I think that's what I would do with Josh Hader for now. I still think he's an elite reliever, one of the best in the game. But just because of this shoulder injury from this past season, I might move him towards the back of that top tier, as like the fifth or sixth reliever off the board instead of the first or second like he normally is. But that could also just know.

Right now I would, I think I would still take Hater. Yeah. Yeah. But it's that's a good. Yeah, I think they're right in that same range though. So we'll see. The number seven reliever this past season, Adrian Moray-home. That's right from the Padres.

Ranks this high because of 13 wins, which led the position by far. He also posted some ridiculous ratios, a 208 ERA, a 0.90 whip. behind an elite 53% ground ball rate. His role is in question for next season. He could move into the Padres rotation. He could be an elite setup man. He could even be the closer if Mason Miller is a starter. We just don't know right now.

I don't think we need to spend too much time on Moneh. We'll keep things moving here. But just worth mentioning, he pitched really well. Could actually turn out to be a spark too for those who play in a head head point. So just keep that name in the back of your mind. The number eight reliever was Carlos Estevez. He led baseball with 42 saves.

and I am here to tell you that I am extremely scared to draft Estevez in 2026. Fastball velocity is trending down. His whiffs went way down. His walks went way up. Yes, he still had a 2.45 ERA, but everything underneath the hood was much worse than that. Scott, as of now, I am out on Carlos Sivas. I referred to this earlier. He got a bunch of saves, but nothing else looked very good.

He was actually the worst he's ever been as a batmissor. it was just 7.4K per 9, which is not a rate you want to see from any reliever, but especially a closer, and especially a closer who puts the ball in the air a ton. Like, you could get away with a, you could still be a high leverage reliever with a low strikeout rate like that

if you're an extreme ground ball guy. Estevez is on the opposite end of the spectrum. So it worked out for him in 2025, but I would be wary of making, that sort of investment in him in 2026. Now, I don't think we're breaking new ground with this take. Like, do you happen to have the ADP, the early ADP for Carlos Estvez? 87.7.

Where does that put him among relievers? Because, of course, all closers are going to get pushed up in a 15 team. So, Chapman is six. I guess it's top 10. Bednar is seven, Hater is eight, Swares is nine. Svvez is 10. Okay. 10th reliever.

What may be happening there? is we've talked about this a lot with these NFBC ADP since there's so much uncertainty, so many unsigned relievers. They may just be, they may be elevating Carlos Estevez less because he got 42 saves last year than because, well, we know he's a closer right now when we're drafting. So I expect him to slide down three to five spots in the relief pitcher rankings, which is about where I rank him.

And if he does, at some point the fact we know he, even though we're worried about regression, and I'm worried about it too, but the fact we know he's uncontested in that role, because the main competition, Lucas Erseg, he lost a lot of his bat missing too for what it's worth. So like Estevez could blow up and lose the job, but if he doesn't blow up, if he's just kind of okay, then he should still rack up a bunch of saves and probably be worth taking as a number two reliever. What I will say is I've got him I think 14 right now That's behind Kenley Jansen among the unsigned guys And I guess Edwin Diaz I have 14th also now that

Now that Hellsley's 13th I have If the Brewers come out tomorrow and say Trevor McGills are closer Trevor McGill's ahead of him If the Blue Jays come out and say Jeff Hoffman's our closer I think I'd take Jeff Hoffman over him That one's a little closer Estab as my job security

I got Jeff Hoffman top 10 Um, honestly, if like, the Cubs sign Emilio Pagan, I might take him ahead of Estabez. I just the point of Pete Fairbanks signed some, I'm trying to say that. I don't know about Fairbanks. Fairbanks is scary too. The skills. I think Fairbanks is a better pitcher. I actually don't think that one's all that close.

Um, my point is it wouldn't take much to push Estabas to like clear. RP2 range where in a head-to-head points league we might be talking about him as a guy you draft 200 overall by the time spring training rolls around just because that's probably where the 16th to 18th ranked relief pitcher should go in those leagues he has been I've got to imagine Carlos Estevez has been the most profitable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball over the past three seasons He has not had an ADP inside the top 225 at NFBC ever before this year. Again, he's up to 87 now, so do with that what you will. And he's given E99 saves and actually pretty good ratios over the past three seasons.

I just think there's a lot of room for this to go wrong. There is. I guess what I'm trying to say, and I don't, I'm reluctant to accidentally brand myself as the Carlos Estephas guy. because I don't think he's very good. You love Carlos Vest of us. It's okay. I don't. This position might be the one where I care about skills the least.

You just have to be able to fake it for 60 innings. And he's done a good job of that throughout his career. Last year he took it to a new extreme, which should raise the concern even more. But ultimately, if you're just good enough to hold on to the role and rack up saves, then you're worth the investment.

The question isn't, if I was managing the Royals, would I make Carlos Estef as the closer? The question is, how much less likely is he than any other closer to hold on to the role? He's less likely than a bunch of them, but he's more likely than some too

who don't even have a firm grasp on the role to begin with. Well, you just heard it here first. A little preview of our VALSEN. Valentine's Day episode, the pitcher that Scott loves next season, Carlos Estevez and Ben Rice, the players that Scott loves. There you go. He got it settled. The number nine reliever was David Benner, a roller coaster of a season. He got demoted to the minors in early April. He returns, gets back to form. He's traded to the Yankees and eventually takes over their closer role. He actually posted some of the best skills of his career, the best strikeout rate, K-minus walk rate, FIP, X-FIP.

he got even better with the Yankees down the stretch. Chris, when David Bednar is on, he is one of the best relievers in baseball. It's just we've seen more failures from him in recent years than a lot of the other names we've talked about. Yeah, and the Yankees have had a lot of closers over the past couple of seasons. Guys who've had a lot of success in that role have cycled through it.

Clay Holmes lost his job despite being an all-star. Devin Williams was their big offseason acquisition. He lost his job. So there is a shorter leash there than I think in most places. But I think David Benar is really good. Outside of 2024, he's been an elite closer every single season of his career. I think he will continue to be an elite closer. And I think you should be moderately excited and maybe a little bit scared to draft him.

I will say this. They are loyal to a fault. Like eventually they moved away from Williams and Clay. Holmes, but it took a while for them to do that both times, right? Like Clay Holmes two years ago, even though, you know, he blew a bunch of saves, I think he still wound up with 25 saves for the season, right? They used them a long time. He still had like a sub three ERA. It's not like he was terrible. Yeah, it was a weird season for him. David Williams, I mean, they kept with, they basically kept him as the closer until like a couple of weeks into David Bennar's tenure there.

So like up to August or something. So yeah, they give him a long shot. Yeah. I got to say though, And I think it's worth actually reading off the numbers for David Bednar because I'm shocked how good they are. David Bednar this year, having lost, having been sent to the minors in April because he was so bad, ended up with a 230 ERA, a 104 whip, and 12.4K per 9. Best strikeout rate, best walk rates of his career. And his numbers were even better after joining the Yankees. So I feel pretty good about him. I have them in my top 10.

All right. The number 10 reliever was Cade Smith, no class. no problem. Kate Smith took over as the Guardian's closer down the stretch. He picked up 16 saves over the past two years. He has arguably been the best reliever in baseball. During that span, he leads all relievers in F-war and FIP. It's not close. His FIP the past two years is 167. The next closest is Garrett Whitlock at 2.18. So Kate Smith is truly ridiculous. We haven't seen him be a closer over a full season yet, but Scott, he very clearly has the same. stuff to be maybe the best closer in fantasy.

That's Kate Smith. I heard that 167 FIP, and I can't help but hear 6-7 in that sing-songy way that the kids say it now. Exactly. Exactly. No, Kate Smith, terrible, the situation with the manual Class A, but it seems pretty clear he's not coming back. And it seems pretty clear that Cade Smith is going to replace him. He certainly has shown the ability to do it. He's now proven in the role from the couple months he got in it in the role without,

without Class A there last year. Top five, closer, Kate Smith. And he's being treated like it. Early ADP, 51.7 as the fifth reliever off the board behind only Munoz, Diaz, Duran, and Mason Miller. Not going to hear me knock it. I think he might just be as good as Emmanuel Class A. With a lot more strikeouts. With more, he might be better for Facebook.

fantasy and the Guardians have just, they have, I think like four straight seasons of 40 plus saves combined. I think last year, obviously it was split up across three guys because I think Hunter Gaddis had a couple, but they, they are a machine that creates saves as much as a baseball team at this point. And yeah, Kate Smith should be incredible. My expectations could not be much higher. The number 11 reliever was Kenley Jansen and grandpa still hasn't. He put up 29 saves, great ratios. The skills are noticeably declining. The K-rate dropped. The home run rate went up. But I think he's probably still good enough to be a closer somewhere if he wants to, even at 38 years old. So looking at teams like the Rangers who struggled to find any

consistency last year, that would be a perfect landing spot for Kenley Jansen. Where he winds up, that remains to be seen. But like you guys said earlier, it's probably going to be as a closer. Yep. I'm not a top 12 guy, but still very useful. I wonder if maybe if he went to the Dodgers, he probably still would be their closer, but maybe he goes there for sentimental reasons and just wants to win a ring. But even if he did that, he probably is the most qualified reliever just to be their closer anyway. It seems like a long shot, but the thought has crossed my mind, him reuniting with the Dodgers. let's see what happens with Edwin Diaz.

Because I feel like the Dodgers are probably the Mets closest competition there. And even if there's another really, yeah, Robert Suarez would be the, would be the ahead of Kenley Jansen on the free agent pecking order. But, you know, if the Dodgers get squeezed out everywhere, which they rarely do. But if they happen to, then it's not unthinkable Kenley Jansen could return and maybe be a 30 saves guy again. I also just want to say, I still think Tanner Scott's good. He's frustrating.

I think he'll be much better next year than he was in 2025. Once a Marlin, always a Marlon, huh Chris? And you know I loved Tanner Scott. I was a big fan of the Tanner Scott experience as a Marlon. The number 12 reliever was Emilio Pagan. He was one of the big league winners this past season, probably got picked up early on in the year, and you wound up getting 32 saves, a 288 ERA, a 0.9 to whip,

10.6K per 9 and he did all of that as an extreme fly ball pitcher in Cincinnati which is pretty crazy stuff Chris how much do you trust what Emilio Pagan just did? Do you think he signed somewhere as a closer this offseason? I would think the smart teams are going to look at

Amelia Paghan and say that's not the high leverage arm we want closing games for us but not every team's smart. I kind of think Emilio Paghani Kenley Jansen and Carlos Estevez are the Spider-Man meme, but from the no way home when there were three of them pointing at each other. Like they're all kind of the same guy. They all give up way too many fly balls, but they managed to survive.

Some of them shoot the web right out of their wrist and others. Yeah. They've got the shooters and yeah. Sorry. Yeah, I think there's a decent chance he ends up closing somewhere. I'm not going to try to handicap where it is. feels like something the Marlins would have done pre-Peter Bendix, but I don't think they're going to,

I think they are firmly in the smart team category now, so I think that's unlikely to happen. You know, being a fly ball pitcher in Miami isn't the worst thing, to be honest. Oh, it wouldn't be a bad place for him. Yeah. I think Tampa wouldn't be a bad place. He's actually, you know, you kind of lumped him in with Estevez. I think the skills are better than that.

He's not an elite reliever, and he's had some ups and downs, but his velocity was up this past season. you know, the strikeouts are, he's more like a top 30 reliever than a top 10 to 15 guy. It's been a lot more down than up for Emilio Pagontra. But two of his past three years, he's a sub three ERA. Two of the past three years have been okay. He did have the one year with 8.4K per nine. Four of the past six years of four 43 are higher.

A lot of four 50s. We don't have to go back that far, Scott. Just two of the past three. I was betting against Pagan all year. And obviously he was right. I was wrong. I didn't know. I don't think he knew he was in a competition with me, but he won it.

Yeah, I'm more with Chris. Like, if Pagan does sign as a closer somewhere, I'm going to say the same thing for him that I said for Carlos Estevez. I don't trust it, but he's got the role and he might just hold on to it. Uh-oh. Did I just become the Emilio Paghan guy? But not at all, not at all the type of guy you want in a head-to-head points league. My guess today is Pagon does not sign as a closer. reasonable.

Yeah, that's fair. Let's wrap up here. Quick look at 2026 relief pitcher rankings. We will also have an FBT Express episode on this where we will maybe go in a little bit more depth. But the top six for Scott next season, we have Mason Miller, Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader, Andrus Munoz, Cade Smith, and Errolis Chapman.

For Chris, we have Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader, Andres Munoz, Yohan, Duran, Cade Smith, and Mason Miller. So, look, the obvious one, Chris, you have Mason Miller as your RP6. Scott has him as his RP1. My guess is you're just hedging against the chance that he starts, right? Yep. And I want, as I said earlier, nothing to do with that if he is starting for fantasy. I don't.

He's still going to be a top 100 pick if they say he's starting, right? I was thinking about this earlier when you were talking about it. I thought like his AP would drop 100 spots. I could be like, I think that's where I would be. comfortable drafting. I don't know if that's what would actually happen. The last SP, the last SP in my own top 100 is Joe Ryan. So he would rank, yeah, he would be, Mason Miller would be behind Joe Ryan for sure. Yeah. So yeah, outside the top 100. I'm just going to say today, like, I don't like to hedge with these preliminary rankings because then I'm forcing myself into an adjustment once it's

known one way or the other. Mason Miller is going to be the Padres closer. That's my prediction. I feel very confident in it. If it doesn't turn out to be true, okay, I'll adjust. We'll know in plenty of time before we're drafting because obviously they'll have to build him up as a starter in spring training if they want him to start. But I feel 90 to 95% confident Mason Miller is going to be the Padres closer. With the Padres in a setup role for Robert Swarze,

he had a .77 ERA, a .73 whip, 17.1.1.7.1.7. 4k per 9. Oh, he's the best reliever. He's the best reliever in baseball. Yeah. That made it clear. I know a lot of people were calling him that already. I was a little more on the fence about it, but his stint with the Padres was so dominant that it made it clear to me.

If he is the closer, he's the number one closer. And I think he'll be the closer. I think, you know, it's the same argument I made when they acquired him for Leo DeVries at the trade deadline. Like they don't give up that. kind of prospect and not make them the closer and then they didn't make them the closer. But Robert Swars is gone now. So they're going to make Mason Miller the closer. And Padres have a lot of financial problems. So resigning a top shelf closer does not seem like something they are likely to do. So yeah, I think that's more likely than not. And he would be

the number one closer with a bullet if that's the case. So just hedging, just hedging my bets. Back to the relief pitcher rankings for Scott 7 through 12. He has Yohan Duran, Robert Suarez, David Bednar, Jeff Hoffman, Rysel Iglesias, and Devin Williams. For Chris, it's our oldest Chapman, Reisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams, David Bednar, and Carlos Estevez. Scott, you have Jeff Hoffman at number 10 in your rankings.

And I don't know if you saw this report. Maybe you did and you just don't care about it. you just think he's going to be the closer. But in early November, after the World Series, the Blue Jays said they aren't committed to using Hoffman as their primary closer in 2026. GM Ross Atkins brought up Jimmy Garcia and Louis Varland as potential options

and didn't rule out the possibility of acquiring somebody this off season. So are you still confident in Jeff Hoffman? I am. Yeah. I think he's way better than those other two. And I think the Blue Jays have to know that. I don't know if it's lighting a fire under him, leaving the door open to pursue Edwin Diaz. We've already seen the Blue Jays make a big free agent splash this off season.

So maybe they're just, maybe they got tons of money to spend. And so they're entertaining that possibility. Until it happens, though, Jeff Hoffman to me is clearly the best reliever in this bullpen. And he was the closer all season long, including on their march to game seven of the world. World Series, Jeff Hoffman was their closer. But I think the way it ended, man, I think that means a lot to them. Yeah.

You know, giving up the game tying home run. So, giving up the game tie home run in game seven, you know. So this is tough, right? Because the skills-based indicators were really lousy for Jeff Hoffman last season. And he was great throughout the postseason. I, let me point that out. I thought I had myself. I apologize.

Yeah, it was a 437 ERA, which, ERA and a 68 in example size tells us very little, but 384 XERA, 490 FIP, 3773X FIP. So, you know, depending on which of the advanced stats you take into account, he wasn't, he ranged from terrible to slightly less terrible, but he wasn't good by any of them. And I don't know if the shoulder scare from last off season was the reason why, but he earned his poor season, I guess is the way to say. It was mostly home runs. He just had a home run problem. Yes. That's really what it comes down to. His stuff graded out similarly to what it was with the Phillies when he was a dominant setup man. Um, the walk rate was the worst. It's been since

22. The strikeout rate was the worst 2023. It was technically worse for 2023, but it was close. But it was three percentage points off the strikeout rate. It was a little worse in the walk rate. He gave up a lot of fly balls. It was just, he got a little bit worse at everything. And when you're dealing with relievers, a little bit worse at everything can mean a lot worse overall. And he earned that home run rate, by the way, because his barrel rate was 12.8%. That was in the first percentile. So he was giving up, like, bad contact for home runs. But this isn't a longstanding, kind of getting to Chris's point where you're dealing with sample size for relievers. It's not like Emilio Pagan, who has always struggled with home run rate.

This was just this was a new thing for Jeff Hoffman. And to me, the situation isn't that different than, oh, who we were talking about earlier with the inflated ERA. Oh, Devin Williams. You've got a history. It's a longer and even more dominant history for Devin Williams. And there, you can't even say, oh, his home runs were high. So I get it's not apples to apples comparing these two Devin Williams and Jeff Hoffman.

but I think it's in the same vein where you have a pitcher who has an established level of dominance, the stuff still grades out similarly and things just went really wrong over the small sample that is inherent to relief pitching in general. I'm going to bet on a bounce back

the following year. Unless the Blue Jays bring in somebody clearly better, I'm expecting Hoffman to be the reliever and I'm the closer and I'm expecting them to be better than in 2025. I would feel a little better about that if Jeff Hoffman got a three-year, $50 million contract this offseason, you know? He is making a lot of money already.

No, no, no, but I'm just saying if he got that vote of confidence that Devin Williams just did. I would certainly feel a little more confident in that argument. Let's just wrap it there. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank, thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.