Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 Starting Pitcher Recap Part 1! ADP, Top-20 Finishers & More! (11/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 18, 2025

Before we get to our starting pitcher recap, Josh Naylor is re-signing with the Mariners (2:30). ... News (9:25): Aaron Judge narrowly edged out Cal Raleigh for AL MVP. ... Let's take a look at the state of starting pitching (17:20). ... Who were the Top-12 starting pitchers in preseason ADP (21:23)? ... We're recapping the Top-20 starting pitchers from this past season, starting with Skubal, Crochet and Skenes (25:45)! ... Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown and Cristopher Sanchez were all big breakouts (31:30). ... Nathan Eovaldi had a random mid-career breakout (38:20). ... Carlos Rodon was great but has already had offseason surgery (43:37). ... Zack Wheeler was performing a Cy Young caliber season before he got hurt (47:41). ... Joe Ryan was great but faded in the second half (54:40). ... Logan Webb pitched well but he's a WHIP killer (1:00:45). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Let's get back into our position recaps, and it's time for pitching. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today. On Tuesday, November 18th, I am Frank Stanfield.

Join by Scott White. Today on the show, it is our starting pitcher recap part one. We'll look at preseason ADP. Recap the top 15 or 20 pitchers, see how many we get to. Also, Scott, we had our first big move of the offseason. Josh Naylor is headed back to the Seattle Mariners. And let's just start there. We'll get the news out of the way.

Then we'll get right into the pitching. Five years, $92.5 million here for Josh Naylor. Feels, I guess, pretty fair for both sides. Coming off another big season, he hit 295, 20 homers, and of course, 30 steals, one of the biggest surprise stats in recent years. He was also awesome during his time with the Mariners. He performed very well in T-Mobile Park, so Scott, this feels like a pretty good marriage for fantasy. Way back on October 3rd, you put out your first base rankings. You had Josh Naylor 8th at the position.

Are you sticking with him there? Yeah, I think so. Now, I am happy with this move because normally Seattle, you would think that's not a great place for a hitter to be. But as you mentioned, Josh Naylor showed he could handle it in his 26 games at Team Mobile Park, at least during the regular season, 26 games there. 360 batting average, five home runs, a 10-15 OPS. I don't think it's going to pose a problem for him as a hitter. And the reason I'm excited about it is I think, I think being with the Mariners, being on that team, had a lot to do with him, miraculously stealing 30 bases. Remember, he was already on a pretty good steals pace at the time of the trade. And we wondered, okay, is getting him out of Arizona, leaving the diamondbacks? Is that going to cause Josh Naylor to stop running? But instead, he redoubled his efforts to steal bases. He took, he would, for as out of character as that stolen base, pace, pace,

seemed before the trade. It was only 11 and 93 games. The other 19 came in Naylor's 54 games with the Mariners. So he was running wild with them. And as effective as he was, you'd think it's even more likely to continue with the Mariners. So having said that, why am I not moving him up? I think the top seven at first base, we could quibble, over the order, but I, they're pretty much set.

I don't feel like there's room for somebody to break into that group. It includes, let me pull it up real quick. So that's Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero, Pete Alonzo, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Raphael Devers, and Freddie Freeman. That's the top seven. Who are you taken out? I mean, they're all, they've, aside from Kurtz, who's, you know, way up at number one among the seven.

They all have an established track record of high-end production. And Naylor, you know, he's been pretty good, but the steals were the thing that took him from pretty good to great in 2025. And while I do think his chances of sustaining it are better with the Mariners, it's still a one-off. It's still a one-off, and we can't say for sure that it's going to continue. I think Naylor has, again, a better chance. stealing those bases, so maybe more upside overall, now that he's back with the Mariners,

but there's still how steady, how proven, and those other seven first basemen clearly haven't beaten that regard. The only other one I think I would maybe argue for Josh Naylor over would be Freddie Freeman just because Freeman's getting a little bit older. Naylor technically has outproduced Freeman two years in a row just in terms of where he's finished overall the past couple of seasons. But I don't think I'm going to rank it that way. I'm going to rank it the way you have it as well.

I think there's going to be a pretty clear top seven and early ADP does agree with you. So we have those seven names in order, Kurtz, Vlad Jr., Pete Alonzo, Devers, Harper, Olson, Freeman. Freeman going at 58.9 ADP. And then Josh Nelly, you drop down a little bit to pick 71. So there is about a round difference and a pretty clear tier drop. between Freeman and Josh Neeler. I'll note that with that early ADP,

we've talked about this, you know, this is coming from NFBC, obviously, and when it's an unsigned free agent, the draft value is greatly suppressed. In a way that doesn't seem terribly logical. It's not like they're not going to sign somewhere. So now that Naylor has signed, just the fact that he has a team.

He has a, you can attach a logo to him now, is that going to move him up the 13, 14 spots needed to pass Freeman? I don't think so. It might happen, but I don't think so. It's possible. I'm not going to change it. I rank Freeman ahead. But, you know, also if we're thinking Nailer's stolen base potential gives him higher upside

than Freeman, you know, NFBC promotes chasing upside too. So I could see, I could see it changing in the ADP, but I would, I want Freeman regardless. It's a narrow gap. The gap is narrowed with this move. Yeah. And look, even if I miss out on the top seven, I don't really mind Nailer as like a fallback option

or even Vinnie Pasquantino for talking about the position as a whole. But, you know, the top eight to 10 or so at the position does look pretty good there at first base. It falls off quite a bit, but we'll talk about that another day. I put a poll out on our YouTube channel asking over under 14 and a half steals for Josh Nailer. this is after the signing so people know he's back with Seattle. There have been 994 votes, 51% over, 49% under. So that seems to be a pretty good number, right? Around 15 is what people are thinking.

I lean over. I think with him going back to Seattle, I could see like 16 to 18 somewhere in that range for Josh Nail. Right. I might put the over under like 17 and a half myself. I mean, it sounds like you nailed it as even as that poll is. but I think Naylor, my expectation, if I had to lock him into one scenario,

it would be that he'll be a useful contributor of stolen bases, particularly for his position. Yep. But he won't approach 30 again. So I'm thinking high teens. All right. Again, that's Josh Naylor headed back to the Mariners on a five-year, $92.5 million deal.

First big move of the offseason, my guess is there won't be much else going on for a while. You know, we get usually some things kind of trickle in in November, and then, you know, December will have the winter meetings and perhaps we'll see like one or two big signings then. Like most of the stuff seems to happen during a three-week period in December, I feel like. A little more happens in January than November,

but the bulk happens in December. So it's coming. I know people get impatient in the off-season. Like if it all happened before Thanksgiving, we'd be pretty bored for three months. So I don't think it's the sort of thing you need to be sweating over. Since we last spoke,

Scott, the MVP awards have been announced. Shohei Otani won in the National League. No surprise there. In the AL, that was a very big talking point down the stretch of the season. Aaron Judge narrowly beat out the big dumper, Cal Raleigh. Do you agree, Scott, with the decision? Judge. I do agree.

I'm a little surprised. I thought, and look, it was close. It was just, what, three votes changed? I think it was 17 first place votes. I believe that's what it was. Okay. Yeah, I mean, it wouldn't have taken much to swing it. And so, you know, it's a small number of votes to begin with.

So you get it if, if, and the way the voting works, these, uh, the writers rotate each year, what awards they vote for. If you got 30 different writers voting, it may have gone the other way. Um, so I, I kind of thought judge fatigue would set in and, uh, the historic aspect of Raleigh season, 12 more homerins than any other catcher, one of just a handful of players ever to hit 60 in a year. And then, you know, the defensive angle, what he meant to a Mariners team that was obviously nearly went to the World Series. I thought all of that would amount to him edging out judge, but judge edged him out. I do think it was the right pick. I wouldn't have been upset if Rale won. The closeness of the vote, I think, was justified. Yeah, I thought it was a coin flip too,

but as a Yankee fan, I am ecstatic that Judge wound up winning. So it's three MVP awards in the past four years for Aaron Judge, who even at the age of 33, shows no signs of slowing down. So great season for both of those guys. Aaron Judge narrowly gets the W. Ronald de Cunia has received permission from the Braves who play in the Venezuelan Winter League. I do want to pay attention to that a little bit to see if he's running while he's out there. He actually won NL comeback player of the year.

While being interviewed, Acuna was asked if he's going to get back to running in 2026, and he responded with, quote, You know me. So that sounds pretty good for fantasy, obviously. And, you know, that quote coupled with Antoine Richardson coming over as the first base coach, it makes me a little bit more optimistic

if I'm being honest about Ronald Acuna. I mean, I don't know what I know, you know me means. He said it in a way where like, yeah, I'm going to steal a bunch of bases, but he might just be talking crap. Who knows? I hope so. I mean, Alex Anthopolis, heading into last year, he gave the more optimistic take than Acuna himself did about him stealing bases. Like, they weren't going to hold him back.

They think it's a big part of his game. They didn't think they could hold him back if they tried. I'm paraphrasing, obviously. I don't remember the exact quote, but that was the gist of it. And then it was disappointing what Acuna did as a base dealer. But yeah, hopefully he bounces back. I think there's a good chance now a year further removed from the knee injury. So I rank him.

Where do I rank him? Sixth. I think I rank him sixth. Three, four, five. Yeah, sixth. And I think I'm going to stick with it. Come hell or high water. I'm going to stick with it.

All right. Jose Altuve underwent a procedure to remove fluid between the fourth and fifth toes on his right foot. sounds kind of gross, but also not really a big deal. He played through the issue the final few weeks of the regular season and expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Brad Keller is drawing free agent interest as both a starter and reliever. He had an awesome season with the Cubs as a reliever in 2025, 207 ERA.96 whip, 75 strikeouts over 69 and 2 thirds innings.

So depending on where he lands, we'll find out what the expected role is going to be. but, you know, we've seen countless relievers turned back into starters in recent years. And for the most part, it's worked out pretty well. I mean, Clay Holmes last year was pretty good, you know, kind of fell off in the second half. Perhaps the workload kind of caught up to him. But lots of pitchers have done this recently,

and it's worked out pretty well. It's a little surprising to me because Keller has a history starting, and it was pretty bad. Really bad. Like, he was nothing to write home about, and he turned into a dominant late. reliever. But, you know, sometimes we see pitchers go to the bullpen. They have that big

jump in velocity and then they figure out a way to carry it over to his starting role. So maybe it's more likely Keller will matter to fantasy if he's a starter than if he's a middle reliever or even a set up man. I mean, I guess there's a chance he could go to a team and be a closer, although he doesn't have much experience doing that. But based on how, based on how dominant he was, like, yeah, there's a chance. So we'll see. Same thing with Luke Weaver. I mean, there's some talks that he could be signed as a starter this offseason.

Didn't have as dominant a season as a reliever this year. There was some pitch tipping stuff going on with him. But yeah, another name to watch there is Luke Weaver, whether or not he's a starter or reliever for next season. Spencer Arroghetti, who missed the final month of the season with a right elbow injury, is expected to be 100% for the start of spring training. The Padres re-signed Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for 2027. And the Yankees re-signed Ryan Yarbrough to an.

a one-year deal. Before we hit our first break, we mentioned Josh Naylor is back in Seattle. How many steals will he have in 2026? Drop a comment on YouTube. Let us know in the live chat. And after you do that, hit the like button and subscribe to the channel

for a bunch of off-season fantasy baseball content. Let's take a break. And when we return the state of pitching, we'll start to recap it all right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. All right, news all out of the way, Scott, pitching the rest of the way here on out for the rest of this podcast. Let's start with the state of pitching. Famous last words,

I think it's in a pretty good spot. I mean, there are always going to be injuries, but as of now, the depth looks pretty good. You've got some aces up top. There's a big second tier that seems really talented. I looked through your rankings before this podcast, and I thought it went about 90 deep with players that were pretty interesting to me. So how do you feel about starting pitching right now? Yeah, that was my impression, too, as I put together those rankings. I mean, you say 90 deep. 91 is Bailey Ober.

92 is Shane Smith, who had 14.4 points per game in the second half. It's around there where it started to get a little shaky, though. But, you know, that's still an interesting range. And I would say ranking, you know, some people are not going to be happy with where I rank the state. the standout rookies Nolan McLean, Trayya Savage but it becomes kind of a hair pulling exercise once you get beyond

30, the 30 to I don't know, 30 to 70 range is you know, could go a lot of different ways. There's a lot of upside to be found all throughout that. So I think maybe it's a little lighter at the very top and

I've stressed a few times already this off season that I'm more willing to pay the premium for the big three who are going to go in rounds one and two being Terrick Scoubel, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skeens. I'm more willing to pay the premium for them because I think the drop off after them is clearer. It doesn't blend as much like we've seen at the top of the starting pitcher rankings. But, you know, you get into that second and third tier at the position, extremely deep, a lot of upside to be found.

We've only done the one mock draft. It was for roto, 12 teams, no bench, so we're only drafted nine pitchers. And my experience with that draft was I wasn't even going that aggressively after starting pitcher. And I had, it was a real concern filling up my pitcher spots too soon. filling those nine spots and there's still being a lot of good pitchers on the table and you know me potentially inhibiting myself at a hitter spot because I did that that was a real concern 30 to 70 at starting pitcher this season Scott am I sensing the good glob the good glob the good glob was that just last year that we had the good glob it's similar I feel like the glob in previous years

was bad last year I think there was a good glob but then before that it was the good glob And then the year before was the glob. Yeah. Yes. Yes. So might be making a return. That was a one year phenomenon, the glob, the lack of a middle class at starting pitcher being another way of putting it.

Now I think it's, yeah, I think it's very similar to how it was set up going into last year. And there will be injuries, as you point out, there will be a lot of injuries. But there will also be a lot of pop-up pitchers, guys who aren't even really on our radar right now and go on to be impactful fantasy options. That happens every year. Think about this time last year, right? We were not talking about Nolan McLean or, you know, any of these other, Trey is Savage.

We knew he was a good prospect. We didn't really have an idea that he would come up the final month and then look amazing in the postseason. You know, he didn't really matter too much for the regular fantasy season. But, you know, there were guys that came up in the second half that we had no idea. We did not see those names coming. And again, that's going to happen again in 2020. like Quinn Priester. Very useful option. Just random. Yeah, you're right.

That and Trevor Rogers? Back from the dead? What is going on? It's crazy. Preseason starting pitcher ADP. So looking at fantasy pros from before the season, which took five different composite draft positions, Yahoo, CBS,

RTS Sports, NFBC, and fan tracks. The top 12 pitchers drafted. We had Paul Skeen's, Terrick Scouble, Zach Wheeler, Logan Gilbert, Corbyn Burns, Garryche, Chris Sale, Cole Riggins, Dylan Sees, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Framber Valdez. According to the Fangraph's Player Rader of those 12,

only four finished in the top 12, which makes sense. There's just, there are so many names, there's just so much unpredictability at the position, lots of injuries as well. Biggest breakouts at starting pitcher, take your pick, lots of options. You know, Brian Wu, Christopher Sanchez,

Nathan Avaldi, kind of a weird mid-career re-breakout type thing. Carlos Ordon, same thing there. But I would say the most traditional breakouts, as we would label them, Scott, Nick Pavetta, Trevor Rogers, Matthew Boyd. Those three kind of stand out to me as like the big, you know, standout breakouts from this past season. Sure, I think those were definitely breakouts. You could name a lot at this position because of how deep it was, but relative to expectations.

I think a lot of us, myself included, were on the Nick Povetta breakout train, particularly after he signed with San Diego. Really, it was all for me. It was all about him signing with San Diego, and that went about as well as it could have. Boyd was more surprising. Trevor Rogers, like you said, out of nowhere.

Not out of nowhere. He was a rookie of the runner-up right in 2021, but it had been a few years since we saw him. him making impact in fantasy. He made a very big impact. Finishing, did he finish with an ERA below two? Yeah, 181. Yeah, he finished as a top 20 starting pitcher

despite only making, I think it was 18 starts, which is just a credit to how good he was in the innings that he pitched. So, yeah, I mean, formerly a name that we paid attention to Trevor Rogers, but years of just kind of injury, velocity being down, he was traded to the Orioles. For the first two months this year, Kyle Stowers was amazing

and we were just laughing at the Orioles for giving him up in that deal. And then you know what? It might turn out to be a pretty good deal for both sides the way that things ended this season. The biggest bust at starting pitcher aside from injury Scott

because, you know, whatever, I'm not going to blame like Corbyn Burns or Chris Sale for missing time. You know, it just happens. But the non-injury bust, there's no doubt that it was Dylan's cease. He was drafted as the SP10 and ADP. He had a 455 ERA, a 133 whip,

walks, hits, homers were all problems. He completed six inings in just 11 of 32 starts. The year prior, he did that 19 of 33 starts. So just terribly inefficient. And unfortunately, we've kind of seen this roller coaster ride that is Dylan Cease's career where it's, you know, one great year followed by one rough year. And as Chris points out often,

you want to buy Dylan C's coming off the bad years because more often than not, he kind of bounces back from those bad seasons to get back on track. What makes it especially perplexing is if you look at the ERA estimators from 2025, obviously not a good year, 2024, compared to 2024 when his ERA was more than a run lower, the ERA estimators are very similar. A lot of the underlying numbers very similar for Dillon C's. I would say he was basically the same pitcher.

A lot of it, a lot of the change there, was just Babbip. The Babbip went from 263 in 2024 to 320 in 2025. And so does that mean wherever he signs Dillon Cis, we should maybe consider defense more? Maybe, but at the same time, he's one of the best bat missers. So you want to think that profile,

he's one of the best bat missers. He's more of a fly ball pitcher than a ground ball pitcher. You wouldn't think Dillin Cis would be that susceptible to defense. And yet really, you look at the last four years, the on and off nature of the last four years for Dillon C's. It's mostly Babbitt. That's change. Let's get into the top 15 to 20 starting pitchers from this past season.

This is according to the Fangraph's Player Raider, which accounts mostly Roto in categories. If there's anything points related, we can kind of mention that along the way here, Scott. But the top three pitchers, the big three, no doubt. Terrick Scoobel was number one, followed by Garrett Crochet and Paul Skeen's. crochet traded over to the Red Sox. He lived up to the highest expectations. He maintained those awesome skills. He did that over 205 in a third innings.

He was one of only three starting pitchers to throw 200 innings. Do you worry at all about the jump from 24, 146 innings, up to 205 in a third? He also threw, I think, like, eight more innings in the postseason. So it's like 213. Do you worry at all about that jump from one year to the next for crochet? I worry some. I'm not going to say I don't worry at all.

I don't worry enough that it's going to steer me away from taking them at the end of round one. It's not the sort of thing I think we can predict with great accuracy. I am more, as far as innings go, I'm more interested in can they take on that ace workload? Will their team allow them to? And can they? Can they get there? and we got a yes, a definitive yes for Crochet to both of those questions this past year. And so I think it's right to treat him as the ace that he is.

I think there's an argument for taking him ahead of Scouble, even now I'm not, because Scoobles done it two years in a row while Crochet just has the one. But just on a pure statistical level, you can make the case for Crochet over Scuble. For Paul Skeen's, obviously the wins were terrible, just 10 wins with the pirates. So that was annoying. It was also annoying that they limited him at times throughout the season. Just a few games where it was lower pitch count. They didn't let him throw more than five innings,

even though it seemed like he was very capable of doing so. I have to imagine, this is kind of just wishful thinking, but I guess also just logic. I don't know if the pirates have that. Going into his third season, I would imagine it's just all systems go for Paul Skeen's. The gloves are off. Let's go ahead and push 200 innings this year.

Yeah, do you feel like the gloves weren't off this year? He got to 187 and two thirds. I don't feel like that's... I just felt like there were starts throughout the course of the season where they very obviously limited him to five innings or, you know, 75 or 80 pitches when it was clear that he could have gone a little bit longer. You know what I'm saying?

Like, just an extra... There was a stretch just before the All-Star break where it seemed like they were limiting him to five innings. So yeah, maybe he gets a career high this year. maybe he has an I.L. Stinton doesn't. I mean, hopefully not. But it's certainly on the table for every starting pitcher. So, you know, I, the reason why I think Paul Skeen deserves to be a clear number three and more like a second rounder, early second rounder in my mind than a late first rounder. So, you know, small difference. But still, the clear number three is because he pitches for the pirates, which is going to greatly impact. his win potential.

In fact, heading into the All-Star break, I think he had just four wins. And then he got six more in the second half. So, yeah, it's a problem. And then the other thing is his strikeout, like he's a good strikeout pitcher, obviously, but he doesn't quite measure up to scuba

and crochet with the strikeouts. So for those two reasons, I'm putting Skeen's third. Having said that, he's begun his career with back-to-back years with an ERA below two. Which is insane. Yeah. It's insane.

It's... Rookie of the year followed by Syeung. It's pretty crazy. Yeah, but just that... It is. But that number specifically, the sub 2ERA, it's so rare to have a pitcher do that ever. I mean, Greg Maddox did it two years in a row in his prime. But how many...

Let's see, how many times did Kershaw do it, sub-2-E-R-A? Kershaw did it two years in a row. Yeah. but in his mid-20s, so more in his prime. But we're talking about, like, best pitcher in his generation type of stuff here for both of those guys. And Skeenz has done it twice to begin his career.

It's crazy. Yeah. And Scoobel, he's the best pitcher in baseball. We're not going to talk about every single pitcher in-depth here. I will just point out as great as he is, and I think he should be drafted as the SP1 heading into next season. Could be on another team,

so I guess we'll keep that in mind, although it probably doesn't matter. The velocity has really bumped up a lot the past couple of years from 95.8 in 2023, then 96.9, 97.6. So it's just a little scary. I mean, it's like we used to want velocity and it's now it's like, whoa, let's dial it back a little bit. I still want velocity, but I don't want your arm to fall off. It does, there does reach a point of diminishing returns when you're already so good. I mean, this is kind of the story of Jacob deGroft. Ram's career. Do you need those extra two miles per hour and the injury risk that comes with it? We saw Spencer Schwellenbach, who was already great as a rookie, gain velocity as a sophomore, and then suffer a stress fracture in his elbow. So that to me, if I'm gauging health risk, is bigger than an innings increase. But to get skeins, it still seems like it's worth

taking on the risk. Yeah, four, five, and six we had Brian. Woo! Brian Wu! Brian Wu, Hunter Brown and Christopher Sanchez. Three of the biggest breakouts this past season, Wu turned himself into a workhorse, went six plus innings in 27 of 30 starts, also improved his strikeout rate. Hunter Brown, the velocity was up a touch. His last 53 starts dating back to May of 2024,

238 ERA 105 whip 9.7K per 9 for Hunter Brown. And Christopher Sanchez, the velocity was up. That helped get the strikeouts up as well. He gets ground balls, also a workhorse. Scott, would you be okay with, I guess, kind of paying this new inflated price, right? All three of these guys were going outside the top 100. Now they're probably going to be top 40, top 50 picks.

Would you be okay paying the price? Would you be okay with them as your SP1 in 2026? I would be okay with either as my SP1. It's Wu and Sanchez we're talking about, right? And Hunter Brown. And Hunter Brown. Okay. I would be okay with any of the three as my number one.

the order I rank them for what it's worth is Sanchez Wu Brown. Some might have them in the opposite order. I think I agree with that order. Yeah. Sanchez, I think I'm most likely to have him because I rank him the highest of the three. And I think there are going to be some people who are a little skeptical of him just because his rapid assent. I mean, two years ago, Christopher Sanchez was nothing to anybody in fantasy, not even like some emerging prospect going into two years ago, I mean.

But, you know, obviously now he's turned himself into a Cy Young candidate and a fantasy ace. And he's done so with this steady progression, you know, started out great ground ball guy with elite control. That's when he kind of first began to pop for fantasy. with those two skills, but we've seen him work in more velocity each of the last two years. 2024, it seemed to come at the detriment of that elite strike throwing. But he found the best of both of all three worlds here in 2025. He still has the elite ground ball rate, has the elite control. And now he's throwing harder in getting the strikeout rate up to like 10 per nine.

And really he excels in all three areas that, a starting pitcher can control for himself. And by the way, he pitches deep into games too, not surprisingly, because of how good his control is. And he's on a good team, too. And on a good team. So Christopher Sanchez seems like a legit ace to me. And I have fewer concerns about him than Wu or Brown.

Not that my concerns for Wu or Brown are that great. They're all part of a second tier for me after that top three. I imagine I'm most likely to take whichever one lasts the longest, regardless of how I rank them. it's less important than who lasts the longest. And I think Sanchez has a good chance of being among the last of those drafted in a lot of drafts. Yeah. And again, you can look at any pitcher and you'll find warts. You know, Brian Wu, his season ended with a pectoral injury.

He did return in the playoffs. He also has a history of a lot of arm injuries throughout his career. Again, that was Brian Wu. Hunter Brown, second half kind of regressed a little bit. The whip was a little bit scary. and the walks were a problem two years ago, and then they were a little bit of a problem in the second half, too. So you look hard enough, you'll find wards for any of these guys.

But mostly when I was digging in, I wasn't too worried about anything I saw with Sanchez, Hunter Brown, or Brian Wu. So the main thing with Hunter Brown for me, he finished with 10K per 9. I'm not sure I buy it. I'm not sure that I buy that he's that good of a strikeout pitcher. it was only 8.8 per 9 in the second half where his ERA was exactly as good. It was 243 in the first half, 243 in the second half. But the K rate was only 8.8 per 9 in the second half. And the swinging strike rate has never been that impressive.

So I think that's closer to the kind of pitcher Brown is, which would mean he's similar to Max Fried, who himself, we could say as an ace. So that's the knock on Brown for me. It's more just how good of an ace is he than is. he and ace. And I think the strikeout rate is going to be lower next year and he's going to end up having more like a max-free trajectory in fantasy. All right, let's take our final break. And when we return back into our starting pitcher recap right after this, welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are recapping the top 15 to 20 starting pitchers from this past season. 7, 8 and 9, we had

Freddie Peralta, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Nathan Avaldi. That's right. Nathan Avaldi in 120 innings was a top 10 fantasy pitcher, which is insane. Peralta was great, value boosted by a career high 17 wins. Underlying ERA estimators say that probably pitched over his head this past season. Yamamoto, awesome season, historic playoffs, 145 ERA, 0.78 whip, won the World Series MVP. We've talked a lot about him. Nathan of all these guys, I think we've got to stop right here and take a little look. because just out of nowhere career year at 35 years old.

Now he did make tangible changes. He threw with less velocity. For most guys, we might not want that. But on the same team as Jacob de Grom, where it worked very well for Jacob de Grom, I think this was kind of a team philosophy thing for both of these guys. He mixed in more secondary pitches.

All of those secondaries are really, really good for Nathan Avaldi. But as usual, he had his arm troubles. Excuse me, I said he threw 120. He actually threw 130 innings. So still, the point remains, he was amazing. And to me, he is one of the most confounding pitchers heading into 2026. What do you think about Nathan Avaldi?

Yeah, I think that's fair. I rank him a lot lower than 9th for next year. I'll have you know. He's part of that good glob. So, you know, you could justify him at 36th is where I have him for next year. You could justify having him higher than that. But weighing risk. and rewards, that's where I put them.

Of course, there's a lot of injury risk. Even before you account for the regression risk, notably, okay, because of the way the rhodo formula works, that's why you finish ninth. You have an ERA as outlandish as 173. The roto formula is going to weigh that pretty heavily. Of course, Avaldi finished much lower in the head-to-head points rankings because of how much time he missed to injury. So worth pointing out that separation there between the two formats.

And as for that 173 ERA, yes, there are underlying changes that explain why he got different results. But you're still talking about a pitcher who in the 11 years, 11 years, an entire career's worth of pitching, basically, ERA no lower than 363 in any of those 11 years. And he goes out and delivers a 173 mark. So that coming from a 35-year-old, just the injury risk, the age risk, the unprecedented nature of the performance, all adds up to Avaldi taking a step back. And it's just a question of how big of a step back. And when that step back comes, understanding that he's probably going to miss out on eight to 12 starts because of injury, is it still going to be worth the investment? That's why I come out 36th on a vaulty, but some will come on higher, some will come out lower.

It's a pretty malleable range of the rankings. Totally agree. He's going to take a step back. There's no doubt about that. But even the ERA estimators, they were all just like the best of his career. It was a 280 FIP, 305 XERA. I probably wouldn't even expect that. But let's say 125 to 150 innings of a low to mid-3s ERA,

and like a 110 to 115 whip. That's a very good pitcher. And, you know, at SP 36, that probably makes some sense there. I do think he's better. It's probably going to be similar to what those, all the youngsters that are going to generate so much enthusiasm. You Savage, Nolan McLean. That's a pretty optimal scenario for them, too,

understanding that they're probably going to have their innings limited to some degree. You know, a low 3 ZRA for somebody just breaking into the league, that, I would take it. So if we're, and that's, that's around the range I have Avaldi ranked, the same as those guys, because I think it's for very different reasons going to play out similarly. Yeah, I will point out one more thing with Avaldi. I do think he's actually better in a points league just because the replacement value, although a lot of pitchers are rostered in points leagues, but when he pitches, he was the

SP4 in points per game. those 18.9 fantasy points per game for Nathan Avaldi. And while we're on this trio, Freddie Peralta is kind of the opposite. He's a better roto pitcher. He gives you a lot of strikeouts. Should get wins pitching on a good Brewer's team, but doesn't go as deep into starts as some of these other ace types. And he was just the ace SP 18 in points per game.

And that was despite all the wins and how well he pitched. So he's probably more like a, you know, SP 24 to 30 in a points league, something like that, I would say. Yeah, and he's going to take a step back too. And 270 ERA was about a run lower than the previous three years. Yeah. And all the underlying stuff was the same. I think he was the same pitcher.

Just happened to get a better result this time. 10 to 12, we had Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, and Jacob de Grom. Rodon had this great season, best ERA and whips since 2022. He provided 18 wins. And then after the season, we found out that he had. had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and he will not be ready for the start of next season. This is just kind of a wait and see, you know, Scott, we got to wait until February, March, learn, you know, where he is in his rehab, what the expectation is. But even then, it's,

you know, the one season that he was delayed for injury with the Yankees was his first year. And that was just a train wreck in abysmal season. So I don't know. It's kind of up in the air wild card, I right now for Carlos Rodon until we learn more. I moved him down 22 spots in my starting pitcher rankings, not overall rankings, starting pitcher rankings, 22 spots from 17 to 39 with the news he wouldn't be ready because of this kind of cleanup procedure in his elbow, which doesn't sound like a serious procedure.

I'm kind of surprised they're expecting them to be out for the start of the year, but they're already saying that. So I'm taking them at their word. But that kind of goes to, show you just how malleable this range, this range in the starting pitcher rankings gets 22 spots for because a guy might miss a couple weeks. It could be worse. I mean, you're factoring in some downside risk there, as you point out, but I kind of surprised myself how much I wanted to move Rodon down in light of this news. Max Fried had a great first season with the Yankees. He changed

the pitch mix. He led with the cutter. It was, and he threw it almost six miles per hour harder, which is this kind of some weird stuff going on. I'm going to take baseball Savant at their word and what they're saying with pitch, mix, and velocity is all correct, but some very weird things for Max Fried in terms of like this cutter usage and velocity and stuff this year. He had a weird stretch in the middle of the season where he dealt with a blister, but then he finished strong.

I think we know who Max Fried is. He did have those forearm things a couple years ago, but he was a full-on workhorse this past season. Jacob de Grom A.L comeback player of the year he finally stayed healthy 2.97 ERA a 0.92 whip

skills weren't as dominant as the past but he threw with less velocity on purpose which allowed him to stay healthy and he was really good DeGrom's early ADP is SP9 which surprises me a little bit

Scott like we just got this great season from DeGrom he finished SP12 can he be much better in his age 37 season I'm not so sure And I still think there's risk involved with him. Oh, yeah. Just the fact he's 37, forget the Grom's past.

There's risk to drafting a 37-year-old for sure. That does surprise me too, because I don't feel like, I mean, I'm just kind of restating what you said. I don't feel like there's upside beyond last year. He finally stayed healthy. And he was really good. but can he take a step forward from there or is it more likely he takes a step back at 37

and or potentially gets hurt again? It seems like there's only room to get worse from last year and so to draft him beyond what he finished last year, meaning 2025 last season, is not something I would do. I have him 14th, which still felt on the aggressive side to me. So yeah,

seeing him go ninth at starting pitcher early on. Kind of surprising. I agree. The most likely thing is that I think DeGrom is probably about his skill set this year or maybe even gets a little bit worse. But there is probably a small chance that maybe, you know, his second full year back from Tommy John surgery, maybe he does somehow get a little bit better.

I'm not going to completely rule that out, but not really something I want to bet on for a 37-year-old starting pitcher. 13, 14, and 15, we had Nick Povetta, Zach Wheeler and Trevor Rogers. Povetta, his first season in San Diego, a massive one. 287 ERA.9. WIP. The home run rate came way down. He overperformed the underlying numbers. So we'll be interesting to see where everyone kind of lands on Nick Povetta and ADP and all those things. Zach Wheeler was having a normal Zach Wheeler season, 271 ERA.94 whip, nearly 12K per 9. He was probably the front runner for the National League Cy Young Award. And then he would

shut down in August with a blood clot in his right arm. Turns out he needed a thoracic outlet decompression surgery, which is a little bit different than the usual thoracic outlet surgery that we hear. His status for 2026 is just kind of up in the air right now. Scott, it's not the same as Rodon because this is much more serious with Zach Wheeler, but it's kind of a similar just wildcard situation. We have to wait to learn more about Zach Wheeler. We do. Early reports are optimistic, but it's very early. And I don't think I'm going to be comforted until I see him throwing at his usual velocities in spring training,

presuming he is throwing in spring training. So that's, he's, he's, I'm ranking him very conservatively. He's beyond the top 40 for me is Zach Wheeler, with room to rise 20, 25 spots from there. So we just got to wait and see with him. Man, all three these guys are working. highlighting Nick Povetta, I've got to be careful with Nick Povetta because I was, as I mentioned earlier, I was on the breakout train for him. And this is something I struggled with early in my career

is when you make a big call on a player and you get it right, you kind of, you got to compartmentalize that and reassess them all over again the next year rather than just saying, yes, I'm ride or die with this guy because he made me look good. And that's where I'm at with Nick Povetta, because while he did have a great season, finishing 13th, he was one of the biggest overachievers in ERA. 287 was the actual mark compared to a 4xERA and a 385 X-FIP. For as much as pitching in San Diego seemed to help him help his batted ball results,

there were a lot more bad at balls. He was not the batmissor we had known Nick Povetta to be previously. And he's in his mid-30s himself. So I think there's a big potential, a lot of potential for a step back. I still have him top 25, but I'm definitely not ranking him as if he's going to repeat his 2025 exactly. Yeah, the other name here, Trevor Rogers, zombie. He's back from the dead. 18 starts.

A 181 ERA, a 0.90 whip, 8.5K per 9. How did he do it? The velocity on the fastball was back up to 93 miles per hour after being down in 2024. He got the whiffs back up. 12.5% swinging strike rate was his highest since 2021, which was his original breakout season.

Like we said about Avaldi Scott, no one's expecting a sub 2 ERA, a sub 1 whip from Trevor Rogers. but now we're left trying to figure out, well, what should we expect? What's a reasonable expectation for Trevor Rogers next season? If this version of him that we saw was legit, like this is kind of a similar player we're going to get next year,

then reasonably expecting a mid-3s ERA, like a 115 to 120 whip? I think that's kind of where I'm at right now, but I really don't know. The improvements for Rogers, beyond the top line ERA, obviously, night and day difference there, but the underlying improvements that back up the top line production are pretty subtle. You know, the velocity was a little better.

The control was a little better. I don't know that it totally explains the night and day difference there. I think good home run luck had a lot to do with it. it was a 0.5 per 9 home run rate despite pretty average fly ball rate. 0.5 per 9 home runs. That was the home run rate. And then a pretty average fly ball rate. So it seems like he had,

Trevor Rogers had some good luck there with the home runs. If you're comparing his strikeout rate, his walk rate to other pitchers, it looks a lot like Kevin Gosman, what Kevin Gosman did in 2025. Now, Kevin Gosman was pretty good. 2025. We haven't mentioned his name yet, but he was pretty good. I think that's probably more where you should expect Rogers to be in terms of ERA and WIP than the otherworldly numbers he put

up in 2025. The early market seems to agree with that skepticism. The ADP for Rogers is 153 going right behind Luis Castillo and Trey is Savage. I don't know if that's anywhere close to where you have Trevor Rogers. I mean, I have Trevor Rogers ahead of both of those. I have them way ahead of Luis Castillo. That is a polyanish view of Louise Castillo, it sounds like. So that'll be one to dig into later. It's a closer call with Ye Savage.

I understand coming off the eye-opening postseason performance. His stock might be a little inflated right now. It might take a few months for people to sober up. Look at some of the downside risk there. Because the great starts for You Savage were genuinely great, but it was kind of an on-again, off-again thing for him. Short starts with high walk rates in between those awesome starts. Yeah, the Trevor Rogers thing, man.

I got to do more digging on Trevor Rogers But look, if everyone is quote unquote out on him And he's going outside the top 150 Maybe there is a little bit of a buying opportunity Where did you say he's going overall? It was 150 Like right around 150 150, 153 Oh gosh man

Yeah, I have him 105 I thought I was being skeptical enough here But it's it's I can't imagine dropping him 50 spots Yeah All right. Well, we'll see. Scott might be the Trevor Rogers guy next season.

We'll see. 16 through 18, we had Joe Ryan, Matthew Boyd, and Drew Rasmussen. So three very different pitchers here. Joe Ryan, another strong season overall. But the barrel rate was back up. He allowed a lot of hard contact. The second half,

a little scary there for Joe Ryan. 467 ERA over two home runs per nine. During that time, Matthew Boyd, he was another big breakout. similarly to Joe Ryan, he faded in the second half. It was a 463 ERA, the strikeout rate pummeled there. It was also his most innings in a season since 2019. So perhaps Matthew Boyd was just kind of like tiring out and fading down the stretch.

Drew Rasmussen's whiffs dropped in his first full season back from all the arm injuries he's dealt with. But he provided awesome ratios over 150 innings, 276 ERA and a 102 whip. Scott, I have to imagine these three pitchers are scattered. across your rankings, but this is where they just finished. 16, 17, 18, Joe Ryan, Matthew, Boyd, Drew Raspison. Anything to add on those three? They are scattered across my rankings. And the highest ranked of them is Joe Ryan. I would imagine that's not really close either.

He's shown to surprise anyone. No. But the reason I bring it up is because I think the biggest reaction I've gotten to any of the rankings I've released so far is why do you have Joe Ryan so low? I have 26th that starting pitcher. No, 26th, in a vacuum, it might not sound that great. There's a lot of good pitchers in that range of the rankings. I just said I had Nick Pivot at 25th. So Joe Ryan in the same range. And I don't know.

I rank them because I looked at the numbers and this is, where these numbers deserve to go in my rankings. I mean, you said what 26? 26th. His 80P so far is SP 17 just for some context. Yeah. So I don't know if there's this impression that Joe Ryan could be better than he's shown us so far.

I don't know if people are just remembering the experience of having first half Joe Ryan and not looking at how he kind of fumbled the bag at the end there with all the home runs, which is a recurring issue for Joe Ryan. I mean, that is the biggest issue for Joe Ryan. His vulnerability to the home run makes it so he's, you know, kind of condemns him to a mid-3s ERA. The 342 mark, not very impressive, the 342 mark he just put up is the best ERA he's ever had.

The strikeout rate is good, but he's never gotten to 180 innings. He's not like a workhorse. The whip is good. The whip is the clearest plus for, Ryan. Good whip, good strikeout total, but not as good as maybe the K-per-9 would have you believe. And then ERA liability with some innings concerns. That's who Joe Ryan is. And I don't, you know, he's going to be 30 next year. I don't see reason to believe that's going to change. There's value in

that. Obviously, I rank him 26th. But I don't know, I don't really understand the point of view that, oh, he deserves to rank nine spots higher than that. He's a borderline. I think he's solidly a high to mid-tier starting pitcher. And so that's where I put him. I think I would probably have him. I haven't done pitcher rankings yet. Probably closer to your top 20, like where Kirby is at and, and Jesus Lazzardo. Logan, I like Lazzardo high.

I'm 16 on Lazzardo, so I know I'm going to be kind of out on a limb for him. But Kirby, I mean, just a year ago, people thought of Kirby as a true. true ace. I like Kirby a lot. I think his early price tag is really, really good for George Kirby. So, I mean, getting him as your SP2, I feel like Joe Ryan as your SP2, I would be, I think it would be pretty good with that. And maybe I'm thinking about it more from like a deeper roto context, but, you know, in a points league, if you could get him as like your low end SP2 or high end SP3, I think that would be pretty good too. And that's how I rank him. So I agree. But if he is the, If he's 17th on average, then that's more like a high in number two,

if not a borderline number one and a 15th teamer. Yeah, that's fair. I would not want Joe Ryan as my SP1, but SP2, I think I can get away with it. And I'll add on these other two here, Matthew Boyd, again, he kind of struggled in the second, not kind of, he struggled in the second half, but again, it was the most innings he's thrown since 2019. So I think he was kind of just fading down the stretch here. And then Rasmussen ratios were really good.

the whiffs came down. I think moving back into Tropicana field, perhaps we see those whiffs climb back up a little bit for Juspson. I don't think Rasmussen is as good as is Roto finish.

And I know some people will object to that phrasing because it is what it is, right? But the thing about the way roto scoring works is different stats are weighed in different ways and it's relative to what other pitchers did. And there is some subjectivity, is what I'm trying to say.

There's some subjectivity built into the roto ranking formula in a way that it isn't built in in points leagues, which is why I generally like to cite points league finishes over roto. But, you know, obviously, Roto, different things matter more in Roto. So I understand why we don't hear in this discussion. I just don't think the upside is such for Rasmussen that you should think of him as the top 20 pitcher just because he happened to finish there last year. I completely agree with that.

Completely. Yeah. as an ERA whip specialist in the middle rounds, I'm happy with that. But you don't want him as your number two in fantasy. Yeah. Even the early ADP, he's outside of the top 150 overall.

So I don't think anyone's treating him close to like a top 20. That's probably closer to SP 40 or 50 in that range of the draft. 1920 and 21. We'll wrap up with this trio here, Scott. And it is a fun one. Logan Webb, Chris Sale, and Hunter Green. Despite missing as much time, as they did. We got Chris Sale and Hunter Green here

right around the top 20. Logan Webb, he remains a workhorse. You love to see the strikeouts bounce back, but that whip remains a killer. As somebody who has rostered Logan Webb in a lot of leagues the past two years, I'm kind of over it. Just the whip is, it makes it hard to compete because he gives you so many innings too, so it's over 200 innings of a near 125 whip. It's just, it's really, really hard to compete

in that category. Points league, he's much better. I mean, it's going to give you quality starts and give you a lot of innings. That's what I was going to say. Logan Webb is is one of, I don't think there are many starting pitchers where you differentiate between Roto and points league value that much, but Webb is definitely one, much more attractive than points leagues. Same with Framber Valdez. I always felt that way with Framber. Same thing as Logan Webb. Chris Dale, he followed up his 2024 Sy Young with similar skills, 258 ERA 107 Webb, 26% K-minus walk rate, but he was limited to just 125 and 2 3rds innings due to a fractured left rib cage.

And Hunter Green, stellar once again, 276 ERA, 0.94 whip. He actually did it differently than 2024. He allowed harder contact again, but he drastically improved his walk rate. So I think it's interesting that Hunter Green has found like multiple ways to perform like a border, like pretty much like an ace, whether it's, you know, limiting hard. contact or limiting the walks. But he has done that now two years in a row. Limited to just 19 starts.

He went on the aisle twice with groin strain. So at least it wasn't an arm injury, but, you know, this groin was a recurring issue for Hunter Green. It's got both of Chris Sale and Green two of the 10 best, 12 best pitchers on a per start basis. It's just how many innings are we going to get from either one of them? Yep. Yep. I have more hope for Chris Sale, but of course there's reasons to be skeptical of that.

for scale he's for sale he's much older than green for one thing and um you know just just to remind everybody the time he missed in 2025 was he fractured a rib on a diving play off the mound trying to go for another gold glove was chris sale and so that cost him the time that's that's not the sort of thing you expect to happen very often to a pitcher and he was absolutely an ace like he was on he was looking on track for a second straight side young ward before before that happened and came back looking just as dominant. Exactly nine strikeouts and five of his six starts after returning from the rib injury. So performance-wise, there should be no doubts about sale.

That's why he's number four after the clear top three for me. I don't know how much I'll end up drafting him because I just don't see myself investing in that range of the starting pitchers very often, but sale comes in number four for me. And then green, what's one of the surprising things we were talking earlier about, about DeGrom being the ninth starting pitcher taken on average in those early NFBC drafts. It's surprising to me that Green's going after him. If the justification for taking DeGrom that early is,

forget injury risk, I want to go for as much upside as I can possibly get. I feel like Green is more deserving of that approach than DeGrom at this stage of their careers. Like if you're just removing injury risk, how good could this guy possibly be for me? Doesn't get much better than Hunter Green. Now, obviously for typical fantasy leagues, we have to account for that injury risk, the fact he's never gone more than 150 innings before. We have to account for that.

We have to account for that in a way maybe NFBC drafters aren't. Yeah. But, I mean, Green is amazing when he pitches. He is a, like the, he established himself. in 2025 as a for sure ace after kind of flirting with that title previously. I think the biggest difference between DeGrom and Hunter Green, and I don't even know that I agree with this, but I'm just going to make the argument is what we just saw the innings total for both of them.

So DeGrom gave us 172 and two thirds, and Hunter Green only gave us 107 and two thirds. And I think just that difference of, we just saw a guy give us 170. The other one was closer to 100. That feels short-sighted, right? Because, I mean, yes, Hunter Green is an injury risk. Are we saying Jacob de Grom just isn't an injury risk anymore? Because he happened to stay healthy for one year.

No, he is. I think they both are. I think they're both kind of elevated injury risks. But I guess just the fact that DeGrom just did it and Hunter Green didn't. The only other thing, and I love the skills for Hunter Green, I agree with you. I think he's an ace on a per star basis. The fact that his velocity, climbed back up again.

This is what we were talking about earlier with, funny enough, Jacob de Grom in previous years before his second Tommy John surgery, is he was so good, he didn't need to keep adding velocity. It's the same thing with Hunter Green. The year prior in 2024, he had

a sub three ERA. He had an amazing whip, big strikeouts. He did that with an average fastball of 97.6 miles per hour. This past season, he was up to 99.5. It just feels like it adds another layer of injury risk for Hunter Green. It does. Someone who's dealt with elbow and shoulder stuff in the past.

So I don't know. It's frustrating. Yeah, I can't disagree with that. I don't know that I'm eager to draft Green. He's 11th for me. So I don't know. Let's see. NFBC, early ADP, he is 10th there right after DeGrom.

Yeah. So I'm about in line. with them. I do have them ahead of de Grom, though. That's the only point I was making. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Wednesday night, Thursday morning. Bye-bye.