Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 Starting Pitcher Recap Part 2! Biggest Surprises & Top-40 Finishers! (11/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 20, 2025

Before we get to our starting pitcher recap, the Orioles acquired Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez (2:36)! ... What's Ward's value in Baltimore (10:04)? ... News (14:01): Raisel Iglesias has re-upped with the Braves. ... Time to recap starting pitchers, starting off with Kevin Gausman, Andrew Abbott and Cade Horton (26:41). ... Jesus Luzardo had a bounce-back season in Philly (32:05). ... Gavin Williams was great down the stretch (36:13). ... Noah Cameron surprised us (43:38). ... Shota Imanaga still posted a 0.99 WHIP this year (49:49). ... Luis Castillo is clearly in decline but still solid (54:09). ... Robbie Ray faded down the stretch (1:00:52). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, rushing. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. All right, all right.

The off-season slowly picking up here. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, November 18th. November 20th. What am I saying? wrote in the wrong day. It is November 20th. I am Frank Staple joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. It's today on the show.

Starting pitcher recap part two. We'll try and get through the top 40, 45 or so from this past season. But for the second straight podcast, we have offseason moves to discuss. Let's get that out of the way. We had a trade and a surprise one at that. The Braves acquired Maricio DuPont for just kidding. We'll get to that later. The Orioles acquired.

I mean, we don't really need to get to that one. mention it in passing. The Orioles acquired Taylor Ward from the Angels in exchange for Grayson Rodriguez. Wow, are you kidding me? Lots of moving parts here. We'll get towards fantasy value, but I think many first thoughts were that the Orioles just sold really low on Rodriguez, who is the former top pitching prospect in all of baseball for one year of Taylor Ward. Yeah, one year of Taylor Ward. And like, it, When you say Grayson Rodriguez, former top pitching prospect of baseball, he had a multi-year run as a top-ten prospect overall.

And that was just like a couple years ago. So this isn't, this isn't, oh, remember back when Grayson Rodriguez was a top pitching prospect, this is still early in his career arc. He turned 25, four days ago. And he had, you know, 26. The amount he had been healthy, he had been promising. He hadn't lived up to the full potential. yet, but it was promising.

So there are only two ways to interpret this, I think. One is just the Orioles are nuts and don't know what they're doing, which is possible. I'm not ruling it out. But the more plausible interpretation is that there's something they know about Grayson Rodriguez, that the three of us sending here don't know. And obviously, he's been hurt a lot. He missed all of last year with a, um, a lat injury and then an elbow injury that needed a debrymedment surgery.

And the lat issues happened a few times before. Cost him time in 2024. Cost him time in 2022. So it's a recurring issue. And so, you know, maybe they have reason to believe he's not going to be the same when he comes back. We have no evidence to say that, but that many injuries to that many critical components, it's possible. Maybe they're just don't believe he can stay healthy anymore because there have been so many repeated injuries. But that, for one year of Taylor Ward, I have a

hard time thinking, thinking that's worth it. Like, I'd rather gamble on the high upside pitcher with many years of team control, unless I was confident he just couldn't pull it together. We've seen pitchers have stretches where they can't stay healthy for a few years. And they put it together and they're fine. It's not an issue anymore. Garrett Crochet from 2020 to 2023, four full seasons through like 88 innings combined. He had never thrown more than 65 innings in a season at any level before throwing, what, 350 the last two seasons? I'm not saying Grayson Rodriguez is that talented or is going to hold up in that same way.

But it's certainly not a 0% chance that Grayson Rodriguez stays healthy. So I think my initial reaction to this is, man, the Orioles must not have any confidence that Grace and Rodriguez can stay healthy. And they would know better than anyone. Like they've been there. They've worked with him throughout everything. He has said he's going to be ready for spring training. I did see a, I'll find the study. there was a study looking at the results of MLB pitchers when they've had debridement surgeries in their elbow.

Debridement is just shaving down a bone fragment and cleaning it up. And for a procedure that sounds somewhat minor, all things considered, the results were surprising. Most pitchers who come back from that on average lose about a mile per hour on their fastballs. and, you know, over the course of three years after the surgery. So, you know, it's not a risk-free thing. But I don't know. It's weird because it's been, what, the two lat injuries and then this elbow

debridement, three lat injuries, and then the elbow debridement. The lat doesn't seem like this huge structural thing, like the shoulder or elbow, that we would be concerned about. So I don't know. the way I look at it is Baltimore is entering a season where I think they have a lot of pressure to win, to compete and make the playoffs and make a run and prove that this whole, I mean, I guess didn't Mike Elias just get an extension or something? That sounds right. Or a promotion.

But to prove that this whole thing was worth it, right? This whole tear down and rebuild and all that, all the hype around them. I think there's a lot of pressure on that. And when you look at it from that perspective, getting a sure thing makes sense. And I will say, I think the fact that the Orioles are in a position in entering 2026 where Taylor Ward is like not a luxury,

is like a legit upgrade for them, is a pretty big indictment of the way the last couple of years have gone for them. Like this is not, this should not be a team where Taylor Ward, Ward should be an upgrade. It's a theoretical upgrade. It's a theoretical upgrade because they do have an excess of pieces that should be comparable to Taylor Ward. And that like a mid-700s OPS bat that doesn't add a lot of defensive value.

He's like a three-win player. Over the past four seasons, he's been three to three point nine wins on Fangraphs, three of the last four seasons. And that's not nothing. but just one year of that. Yeah, just one year of that as a 32-year-old, so there's a chance he just completely falls apart. And he had 36 home runs last year, but I don't think any projection system thinks he's going to get there.

More like 25 to 30. I would rather have rolled the dice on whatever I can get out of Grayson and just, hey, maybe Tyler O'Neill stays healthy. It's actually since you need pitching a lot more than hitting as the Orioles. That's the other. I think that just tells us they don't have any confidence in Grays and Rodriguez giving them anything. It's the sort of deal, though, like, if I see this deal go through in a dynasty league, I'm in, my reaction is, I wish you had told me Grace and Rodriguez is available because I feel like I could have beat that offer.

Yeah. Yeah. The early ADP for Grace Rodriguez through 42 drafts is there have been more drafts than that done, but he hasn't been drafted in all of them. 406. So still very much so wait-and-see, extremely late-round flyer for whatever this is worth. Angels GM Perry Manassian said that Rodriguez will be throwing bullpen sessions in January and is expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Keep them on your late-round radar for sure.

I might be higher on them than the consensus then because I have him 61st in my starting pitcher rankings. And maybe the Orioles response to this trade is reason enough for me to lower them from there. but if he's healthy and throwing at his normal velocity this spring, we have every reason to believe he's going to pick up where he left off. And where he left off was like a top, everyone was drafting him as like a top 36 starting pitcher that year. Yeah.

Taylor Ward on the other side joins a crowded team, but what should be a better lineup, I think, overall with the Orioles here, he's coming off a career year where he hit 228, 36 homers, 103 RBI. The barrel rate was really good, 84th percentile. Chris, what do you think about the fit here with Taylor Ward in Baltimore? That's fine.

I think Anaheim Angel Stadium, yeah, that's what they call it, is a pretty good hitters park, better than Baltimore, I would say. But I don't know if that matters very much for Taylor Ward. He'll hit probably fifth or sixth in the lineup and should get to 25 to 30 homers and be the same kind of boring fantasy option he's always been. I don't think he's likely to finish as high as he did last season, but I also don't think he's likely to be drafted anywhere near that high. So it's fine.

The early ADP for Taylor Ward is 165 as the 38th outfielder. He's going just ahead of Stephen Kwan, Dylan Cruz, Ian Hap, Jurksson, Profar. So people are, I think, rightly, not treating Taylor Ward like he's a 36 home run hitter. That ADP sounds about right. I'm not sure with this trade. Maybe it goes up a little bit just because I, I think it'll be a better team, but we'll monitor Taylor Ward's offseason ADP. A couple more things that I should mention.

Taylor Ward was significantly better on the road last year, and it has been better on the road throughout his career. But Angel Stadium is generally considered a good place to hit. And I don't see this as a scenario where, okay, we're getting this guy out of a bad park. He's going to do better now. I don't think you should treat it that way. sometimes guys have bad seasons in good parks it's it's not like for his career it's very close to even grason rodriguez has lower a dp than simeon woods richardson yeah i'd rather take the the flyer on grason i don't know about that one i might have to work pretty hard to get his his

adp to rise scott's just going to hop in a bunch of drafts and just keep attracting grace and Rodriguez. As for the rest of the Orioles, they do have a bit of a log jam. Their outfield right now, Taylor Ward, Colton Couser, Dylan Beavers at D.H to have Tyler O'Neill. They have Kobe Mayo at first. They have Adley Ruchman a catcher. And then of course, they have Samuel Bessayo who could play catcher first base DH. You know, Tyler O'Neill can't really stay healthy. Kobe Mayo, not really proven. So this feels like something that could work itself out pretty easily. I guess the one thing we know is Taylor Ward is going to play a lot. Hopefully all those kind of fringy names specifically

Bessio plays a lot too. My biggest worried for fantasy with this deal is that it means Samuel Boussayo doesn't make the opening day roster. Oh, I'd be shocked if that had given the extension. I'd be pretty surprised if that happened. I would be shocked, yeah.

All right, well, Dylan Beaver doesn't make the opening day roster. Maybe. I think I would be shocked by that too. Well, then they got to do something. They got to trade both of Mount Castle and O'Neill. I mean, maybe. Maybe that... They could probably, they might non-tender Ryan Moutcastle. Yeah, I think a non-tender for Rye Mountcastle would make sense.

I can't imagine, like, are they really worried about Tyler O'Neill at this point? He has two years left on that contract, but I think it's, they've probably got to view it as a wash at this point. And just if they get anything out, like, if he gets hot, cool. But I can't imagine they're going to go into the season worrying fretting about getting Tyler O'Neill at bats. I am not an Orioles decision maker, but I would imagine Basayo has priority over someone like Kobe Mayo who, look, neither has done anything so far, but Basayo is the more recent higher end prospect than even Kobe Mayo. Mayo was playing more than Basayo down the stretch, but I would agree with you. That's not the way it should be. The Braves re-signed Rysel Iglesias to a one-year, $16 million deal. He got off to a terrible start last season, but over his final 45 games, it was a $1.20. 25 ERA, a 0.69 whip. 10K per 9. He wound up with 29 saves total. The early 80p for Eglacius

is 96 as the 11th reliever off the board, just behind Carlos Estevez, right ahead of Trevor McGill. I think we can see this kind of rise a little, a tad bit just because we know he's going to be a closer now. But Scott, what do you think about your boy? Eglacius is back. So it does seem like the Braves, both with their managerial hire and then bringing back their closer at the same rate he had been making the last three years with them. They're clearly valuing continuity here. They're very happy with how the last few seasons went. That makes the analysis for Iglesias easy because, okay, he's filling the same role that we've seen him fill. the last three years

obviously things started out pretty rough for him last year but once he ditched the slider and really focused on all of his other pitches he finished very strong his final

45 appearances of 125 ERA and gosh that whip must have been microscopic. 0.69. Yeah. So he's still closer caliber clearly.

I expect him to be the closer for the Braves again. and probably one of the top 12 relievers off the board now that he's signed. I may or may not have given out all of those stats and ADPs. Well, then why do you go to me? What do I have left to say at that point? I mean, I'm just letting everyone know. I'm kind of setting it up for you.

All right, fair enough. Yeah, I, 10 through 12 at RP, probably the right spot for him. If you want to push him ahead of Carlos Estevez, whose skill set just feels a little less safe. I think that's reasonable, but yeah, that's the right spot for him. I don't have a lot of concern about Ricel Iglesias. I also don't expect an elite season or anything like that from him. We had four players except the qualifying offer, a one-year, $22 million deal. Brandon Woodruff is back with the Brewers, Trent Christian back with the Yankees, Chauta Imanaga back with the Cubs, Glaber Torres with the Tigers. This is a surprising amount of players to accept the qualifying offer.

perhaps some of these teams kind of overplayed their hand trying to get a compensatory pick out of this. The Yankees in particular, I think perhaps might have outsmarted themselves a little bit here with Trent Grisham. Any takeaways here? I think the Woodruff one is kind of interesting because I think he could have got more money

on the open market, but maybe he just wanted to play another season in a familiar situation with the Brewers and then if he has a good year, you know, could get paid next off season or whatever. Could also just be a little bit of kind of what we saw with Trevor's story, where he probably could have gotten a bigger offer

than the remaining years on his contract. But, you know, story talked about feeling a almost a debt of gratitude for the team for the way the last couple of years went. Woodruff, obviously, they gave him, you know, it was like a $36 million contract or something, even though they knew he wasn't going to pitch one of those seasons. So, you know, it could be something like that.

I'm he did finish near with a uh uh uh lat issue himself woodruff so i think if if that hadn't happened if he if the season hadn't ended with him nursing a lad issue as good as woodruff looked with that new cutter and yeah believe it or not fastball dropped three miles per hour he had a career high strikeout rate last year like he he he looked at was still excellent on the fastball yeah and so if he hadn't if he didn't now have that second shoulder issue, which we don't think is going to be a big deal, but it's another issue. Then I think he probably would have tried for a big score,

would have Brandon Woodruff. I think he should be one of the top 36 starting pitchers off the board. But apparently he's confident enough in his own abilities that he thinks a full year of health is going to earn him a bigger deal next year. And Conneth can save the same. for Trent Grisham, not health-wise, but just that he has the stench of a one-year wonder right now. And he is betting, you would think coming off a career season, that would be the time to shoot for a big multi-year deal, right?

And you had some outlets like Baseball America, ESPN, projecting four or five years for Trent Grisham at a higher average annual value than the qualifying offer even. You said you thought maybe the Yankees outsmarted themselves by issuing that qualifying offer. Whether they knew it or not, what they ended up doing was daring Grisham to take it. Because that can be kind of an albatross on a free agent. Teams might be willing to give Grisham, even with the unsavory track record. They might be willing to give Grisham that four or five-year deal, but to give up a draft. pick also to do it, which is what happens when you give

a player a qualifying offer. That might be a bridge too far for a lot of teams, and maybe that's what Grisham's representation realized and ultimately took this deal, give him a chance to prove it all over again. It's just if the Yankees end up signing re-signing Cody Bellinger,

they've already talked about wanting Jason Dominguez to play every day. Grisham could find himself squeezed out if he doesn't hit the ground running next year. I can't imagine paying $22 million for a fourth outfielder. A team like the Yankees, I guess, could afford to do it,

but it, yeah, it does kind of bring some complications in here. If they go after a Tucker or bring in Bellinger, they still have Dominguez. They still have Spencer Jones who's waiting in the wings. Like, they could play Bellinger at first base, but then what happens with Ben Rice? They could use a matcher and kind of get rid of Austin Wells or something, but yeah, lots of moving parts, right?

It's a little weird. Two things. Two things. One, Spence. Spencer Jones should not be an everyday player in 2026. Maybe he takes a big step forward, but like, Joey Gallo without the walk rates is not the guy you just throw into a starting spot. I don't think Spencer Jones should be a part of the calculus at all.

I don't disagree with you, but he's also kind of, he's done a lot in the minors, at least based on what he did. He should get a chance to see what he can do at this point, at least, based on his age and everything. I think on a team trying to win, that's probably not true, but sure. The other thing I would point out is, while the underlying numbers look very solid for Trent Grisham, he might have actually underperformed his expected stats, and it wasn't like it was all at Yankee Stadium, who's actually better on the road.

We talked about all this a lot. This is something Derek Van Riper tweeted out the other day. Trent Grisham is the seventh player since 1961 to have 30 homers and 10 or fewer doubles in a season. Only the seventh time that that's happened. Among the previous six, they went from an average of 32.7 to in the same number of played appearances paced out, 28.1 the following year. Now that doesn't sound so bad. Hank Aaron went from 34 to 47 the year he did it.

take him out, it drops to 24 the following season. So just on that alone, you should expect a pretty big step back from Trent Grisham in the power department. And for our purposes, kind of sort of he brought to the table. He'll draw a walk and, you know, plays good corner outfield defense. I don't really think he should be a center fielder anymore. But But when I look that data up, I'm a little more concerned about the Trent Grisham experience for 2026 than I was before that. That does feel like a pretty worrisome sign. We do have to quickly move through the rest of these. But according to an article written by Jeff Pass and of ESPN, the pirates are strongly considering giving Connor Griffin the opportunity to win their starting job.

starting shortstop job this spring. Arguably the top prospect in all baseball. It was ridiculous. 333 batting average, 21 homers, 65 steals. His early ADP is 361.5. It's definitely going to move up now. And if he has a couple of good games at the start of spring, that number is just going to skyrocket.

So keep that name on your radar for sure. That's Connor Griffin of the Pirates. We had some mildly interesting names that were DFAed in recent days. Michael Tolia, J.J. Bladay, Joey Weimer. Nathaniel Lowe, Christopher Morel, and Jake Frailey. So see if they latch on anywhere. Mike Trout is working his tail off to play the outfield again in 2026. He was mostly a DH last season.

And I mentioned this earlier, but the Braves and Astros made a kind of pointless trade. The Braves received Maricio Dubon in exchange for Nick Allen. And Alex Anthopoulos said they'll continue to explore the shortstop market, but they would be comfortable as they would be comfortable with Dubon as their starting shortstop next season. That's what he says for now. So we'll see. Let's hit that break. When we return,

we'll be recapping more starting pitchers for those watching on YouTube. Who is your number one starting pitcher target in 2026? Drop a comment or let us know in the live chat. After you do that, hit the like button and subscribe on YouTube for a bunch of offseason fantasy baseball content. Let's take that break and we'll be back right. after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today, and we are continuing to recap starting pitchers

from this past season. Last episode, part one, we got through 21 starting pitchers. We left off with Hunter Green, so we'll try and get through the top 40, top 45, something like that. And if you haven't, listen to our FBT Express episodes, we're talking about 26 starting pitcher rankings on those, so be sure to check those out.

22, 23, and 24. We had Kevin Gosman, Andrew Abbott, and Cade Horton. Pretty interesting trio here. Nice bounce back for Kevin, Kevin Gosman. He was up and down, but the skills were much better. Remember, spring training of last year he dealt with the shoulder. So perhaps he was just finally healthy again and looked that way this past season. Andrew Abbott, Chris, he's your kryptonite, continues to outperform his underlying skills.

And he got even better, a 287 ERA, a 115 whip. and Kate Horton, very impressive rookie season, great ratios, dominant second half. The skills do not back it up. It was a 13.4% K-minus walk rate, which was well below league average. It does feel like there could be some meat on the bone. His secondary pitches look really good, but he just throws his fastball a lot. So Chris, we'll start with you. Interesting trio here, kind of different points of their career, Gossmann, Abbott, and Kate Horton.

Yeah, I think Gossman is, probably okay. Like he, he's no longer an ace, and now he pitched like one in the second half of the season. I don't think we should expect that from him in extended stretches anymore. But, you know, mid-3s, ERA, decent strikeout rate, that all seems fine. Abbott, I kind of think the same thing. I know I've, I've wrestled with him for a while,

but there is clearly something about his pitching style. and his approach and the mix. He's funky. He's got like that cross-body delivery that just makes it all work a little better than it probably should. And so while I don't think he's a sub-3 ERA guy and we saw regression in the second half already, I think if you keep your expectations to like a 36 ERA,

he's probably fine, but not a huge difference maker. And then Horton is the big wild card here, because he, in addition to wildly overperforming, his XERA was 391, his actual ERA last season 267, obviously the second half. He had a 103 ERA. You're probably very familiar with all those numbers. It was a big talking point in the second half. In addition to all of that being unsustainable, he also had a, let's do some quick math,

124, 223 inning jump from 2024 to 2025. He threw 34 and a third innings amid shoulder and elbow issues in 2024. Stayed healthy until the back in 2025. Don't hold that against him too much. But he threw 147 innings. So he threw 115 more than last year. I got there. I figured it out.

So in addition to what his success in 2025 looking like a unsustainable, whether it's a fluke remains to be seen, but unsustainable. He also has a giant innings jump to deal with and lingering injury concerns. So I can say very confidently, Kate Horton's not going to be someone that I'm drafting very much of in 2026. and I think he needs to pitch, he needs to get better to be worth what he's likely to draft, and that's just not a bet that I want to make. I'm actually pleasantly surprised how late Cade Horton is going in early ADP, because I was trying to take a stand, putting together my, you know,

I put together my rankings before any ADP information comes out, which sometimes feels self-defeating, but it's a good process, I think. I have Cade Horton 178. His ADP is 181. So pretty much right there. And for me, that means at starting pitcher, Kate Horton is only 54th. Now I have him higher than Andrew Abbott, who's 56th, in part because I think the second half appet is more like the true Abbott with the high. a 3 ZRA, the whip over 1, 2.

It doesn't have much strikeout upside. Yeah. So, you know, 56, he's still getting drafted everywhere, but that's not anybody. It's filler. Nobody's designing their draft around that guy. Gosman is by far the highest ranked of these three for me. I am 29th. We're very close on all these guys.

Okay. I love when that happens. We have not talked about starting pitcher rankings at all. We did not, like, and I have Gosman 30th. I have Horton 53rd and I have Abbott 54th. So very close. Almost identical. Yeah.

Yeah. Kate Horton, I mentioned this earlier. I do just want to give you some numbers on it. Through his fastball 50% of the time and it wasn't great. But each of his sweeper change up and curbball had ex-WBas under 250 with whiff rates of 37%, 48% and 28%. So it seemed like pretty good pitches. I wonder if maybe he throws them more in 2026. Pitchers number 25, 26, and 27.

We had Merrill Kelly, Nick Ladolo, and Jesus Lazzardo. Merrill Kelly, nice mounts back season. Old man, still got it. Underlying numbers say he overperformed, but he's routinely done that. Three of the past four years just outperforming his ERA estimators. Nick Lidolo finally stayed healthy, had a great season. Didn't have the sky-high strikeout rate from the past,

but he displayed exceptional control and got even better in the second half. Hazel Lozardo's first season in Philly was a great one. The fastball velocity was up. He added a new sweeper. He had elite skills and ERA estimators, despite his ERA and WIP being inflated. As we talked about a lot throughout the course of the season, he had the stretch where he was tipping his pitches,

and he was getting blown up. So if you eliminate his two worst starts, the numbers come down to- Scott, you're going to love this. The numbers come down to a 303 ERA and a 11-WIP. So not saying I would expect that from Luzardo, but just to kind of paint that picture. 303 ERA 111-11 whip, 10.6K per 9, which is what it was for the season. But just to reiterate how good of a strikeout pitcher, Hesuzzo Luzardo was, you say you don't necessarily expect a 303 ERA over a full season.

That 303 ERA was pretty close to the ERA estimators. In fact, his FIP was actually a little better. It was 290. So I'm not sure that's out of the realm of possibility for Jesus Luzardo. And while some people get annoyed with me when I do the, oh, let's remove the two worst starts and here was what the numbers look like. I think pretty much everybody can get on board with it in Luzardo's case since it was like back to back starts. Out of this, like straight out of fiction to start maniacal, disastrous outings where he was clearly tipping his. pitches and it just wasn't in the realm of reality is what I'm trying to say.

So take those out. He becomes this 3ERA guy with almost 11 K per 9. And that to me makes Jesus Lazzardo number 16 at starting pitcher. I think there's a clear top 15. I'm putting Schwellenbach in the top 15. So, you know, some people might dispute that. But for me, it's clear. At 16, you get more debate.

And I want Jesus Lazzardo at the top of that group, which means ahead of Logan Webb, at least in Roto, ahead of Freddie Peralta and George Kirby, ahead of Nick Povetta and Joe Ryan. I'm really high on Luzardo for next year. And I'm kind of high on Nick Lodolo, too. I definitely like Lidola more than Abbott. Yes.

Oh, yeah. So, yeah, that's where I stand with those. Lodolo is a better strikeout pitcher than Abbott. He's a better ground ball pitcher than Abbott. He's got better control than Abbott. One point eight walks per nine. That was kind of a new development for Lodolo, but it makes an interesting profile that much more interesting.

And the quality of contact was very similar, which that's one place that Abbott stands out, but Lodolo was very good in that regard as well. I also want to point out with the Phillies, with Luzardo. That defense should probably be a little better next year, I would think. Nick Cassiano's probably not going to be back. Gonna guess Nick Castellanos, I mean, if nothing else, Nick Castiano's being out of the picture would probably,

but they might replace him with a legitimate plus outfielder in right field in Justin Crawford. I don't know if he's going to be like a plus center fielder, but he projects as a really, really rangy corner infielder. He might play center at least early on. He might, especially if they make a, if the team that wins the Tucker,

Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, that probably puts Justin. Crawford and Center. Yeah. So that's something to keep in mind with the Phillies as a whole is that defense should be, honestly, outfield defense should be significantly improved for next season. Yeah.

Let's move on. 28, 29, and 30. We had Logan Gilbert, Gavin Williams, and Spencer Schwellenbach. So two of these names missed pretty decent amount due to injury in Gilbert and Schwellenbach. It was a weird season for Gilbert. He missed the six weeks with a flexor strain. He was much less efficient than we're used to seeing.

but his skills were off the charts. Among starting pitchers with 130 innings, he was third in K-minus Walkrete and third in Sierra. Again, that was Logan Gilbert. Gavin Williams, another one of Chris's enemies here on the podcast. For most of the season, he was overperforming, and then he just turned it on late in the year. Last five starts, 174 ERA,

106 whip, 11K per 9. He was great in his lone postseason start as well. And then the breakout was on for Spencer Schwellenbach, 309 ERA 0.97 whip But he suffered a fractured right elbow likely because he was throwing harder last season. So, you know, we're left with some questions about Schwellenbach with his workload

and what will his velocity look like next season. Gavin Williams is one that stands out here, Chris. When we went to first pitch Arizona, he was kind of talk of the town. He was the name that kept getting brought up by people as a second year breakout, kind of someone that could take another leap forward in 2026. Yeah, and,

I'm certainly more open to that possibility after the August and September, I think more so September than August when the strikeout rate really jumped. It's a tough bet to make because I think the command and control is always going to be pretty bad. Like even in that September, it was 10 walks and 24 innings. August it was 13 and 33. Like that's those are, you know, those are the best months. and they're still pretty bad. So he's always going to have to avoid damage on the base path. But you can, it's not hard to see the case for Gavin Williams.

He's got this big fastball with huge, some of the best extension and baseball, almost seven feet of extension, throws it 97 miles an hour. The curveball and sweeper both look like really good swing and miss pitches. I think this is a case where everyone else is probably going to be more. more excited than I am, although his early price is around 146 overall. I would guess around 55th at starting pitcher. He's 45th at starting pitcher. He's 60th in pitcher, but there's relievers in there, which is always frustrating.

But I've got him at 41, so that sounds right. I haven't done my overall rankings yet. That'll be in the next month or so. But that seems fine. I would guess there's going to be someone that jumps that ADP in every draft. And he seems like a guy who's going to rise a lot as the season starts, especially if he has a good spring. But I'm not totally out on Gavin Williams.

I'm just not totally in either. I might be among the higher on him, because I'm 34th at starting pitcher. And you take the second half stats at face value, 218, ERA 105 whip, 10K per 9. from a pitcher who was long thought to have significant upside. His point per game average in that second half, Gavin Williams, only four pitchers, three pitchers, only three pitchers,

scubae, crochet, and Trevor Rogers. Oh, and Nathan Avaldi. And, yeah, yeah, only three pitchers, four pitchers had a higher season-long point per game average than Gavin Williams had in the second half. So he was hugely impactful. And, you know, I see the downside risk, but I think it's already baked in ranking them where I do at 34, personally.

I also want to touch on Schwellenbach a little here. I already mentioned he's part of a clear top 15 for me. He rounds it out at 15. I have concerns since it was a usage-related injury. He increased his velocity and wound up with a strong. breast fracture in his elbow, those are related in all likelihood. And in fact, Shwellenbach himself pointed out that they're likely related, which leads me to believe he's going to change his approach next year.

But we've already seen him at lower velocity as a rookie. And he was still coming off that rookie season, he was one of the most hyped pitchers being drafted. it was borderline top 20 entering 2025, right? Big time hype guy was Spencer Schwellenbach. And so he added velocity and seemed to get even better, but I'm saying he doesn't need it. I'm saying it's sort of like a Jacob de Grom situation

where, okay, it's great that you can throw harder, but you don't need to. And that's a big reason I'm bullish on Schwellenbach and think he can avoid this becoming a recurring issue because, A, he understands it, and B, we already know what it looks like and he takes a little off. All right, let's take our final break

when we return back into starting pitcher recap right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Recapping starting pitchers from this past season. We left off at number 30 with Spencer Schwellenbach, 31, 32, and 33. Noah Cameron, Ranger Suarez, and Chris Bubich. So two royals in here.

Noah Cameron had a low-key, great rookie season, 299 ERA, 110 whip. he's another that looks like he overperformed his K-rate was well below average he pitched really well with runners on base. Ranger Suarez has taken his game to the next level over the past two years. 53 starts during that stretch, a 333 ERA and a 121 whip, also a free agent this off-season. And this just goes to show how good Chris Bubich was.

He didn't make a start after July 26th, yet he was still the 33rd best starting pitcher this past season. He was near elite in his 20 starts, 255 ERA 118 whip, right around a K-per-enning, elite fastball change-up combo with a solid sweeper there. Coming back from a shoulder injury, so there are questions, but definitely an aim to watch throughout spring training here. Chris, the Royals, how do you feel about Noah Cameron and Chris Mubich here? Noah Cameron feels like the definition of just a guy.

I don't, like, his ADP right now is like 250 or something, so it doesn't, there's not really any downside of chasing him, but there's, I don't think there's a lot of upside here. His change-up showed some decent swing and miss potential, but overall, I don't see much to get excited about with Noah Cameron. Now, Bubich, I think there's a lot to get excited about, and he's not that much more expensive. His ADP's 207 right now. If he stays around 200, I think the skills are so strong here to bet on with Chris Bubbage. There are legitimate questions about his ability to stay healthy and stay on the mound. But you know what?

There are legitimate questions about Spencer Schwellenbach's ability to stay on the mound. I think Spencer Schwellenbach's better. But the skills-based indicators were not that much different between these two guys. It was obviously elite control for Schwellenbach. And Chris Boobich is not going to have that. But he has showed really good quality of content. tax suppression skills over the past couple years, getting a lot of weak contact.

I think he's probably like a low 3 ZRA guy, Chris Bubich. And even if he only gives me 125, 130 innings with that, that's well worth a pick around 200. And then, Ranger Suarez, we have to always,

and anytime we're talking about this early ADP in November, there's this weird thing where people who are drafting right now, some seem to think that these guys just won't sign and you get these huge early discounts on the free agents ranger's sparrers 182.8 ADP that feels like a real real buying opportunity if you're in one of these early drafts and um honestly i don't think he's a superstar but i think he's good on that point if you're if you're the if you're the sort of degenerate who's willing to put together a thing fantasy baseball team in November the season before. I think there are potentially huge payoffs to just going after all the free agents

because the discounts for them is insane and it is every year and it doesn't make any sense like you say. We don't really cater to that audience. So it's not something we harp on much. But like if that is you, if you're that. sort of person. That seems to me like a reason to do it. Not just, oh, I'm crazy.

So I'm going to draft in November. But I'm going to draft in November just so I can gobble up all the free agents that nobody seems to want for whatever reason. Is Suarez a top 30 SP for you? No, he's not. He could be if there weren't so many other pitchers who were in that discussion. He gets pushed down to 42nd. And incidentally, Chris Boobich is 43rd. I think if his ADP holds at around 200, and I'm skeptical at will, I think a lot of it is just he's not top of mind, hasn't been top of mind for a while now.

He'll be talked up throughout the offseason and probably rise 40, 50 spots in ADP. But if he doesn't, then it's going to be a second straight year of me banging the drum for Chris Boobich because it paid off about as well as it possibly could have. last year and there's no reason for me to think it's going to abate. The one caveat I want to throw out here and it's just, Suarez I could see being one of those late signies. I could see him really pushing for like a $90 million contract and teams being scared off and him not signing until like March. I hope not, but I could see that.

So that's one thing to, um, to, to, keep in mind that could drop Ranger Suarez's price. But I think that's a, that's not the likeliest outcome. So I still think his early price is a great value. So I am currently in a draft. So degenerate here over at the NFBC. This is what, your third? Round 12.

Well, second. I did one at first pitch. And now I'm just like, oh, man, I want to draft. But round 12, Ranger Suarez is still available. So in a 15 team league. And that's, yeah, that's like 160th, 170. overall, yeah. Yeah, we're at pick 170 right now.

I'm eight picks away. I may or may not take him when it's my pick. So, uh, we'll see. What is his ADP? Uh, it is 182. 182. Okay. So you don't, like aim for the ADP for every free agent.

Aim for the pick before his ADP and make bank. Yeah. I only have one of their free agent, though, Scott, so I'm sorry. You already blew it, Frank. I got Cody Bellinger. What's the point? Oh, Homer pick too. Might not even be back.

with the Yankees. So we'll see. 34, 35, and 36 at starting pitcher. We had Chota Imanaga, Ryan Nelson, and Quinn Priester. So I feel like every trio we go through is so interesting from this past season. Imanaga's number, overall numbers were solid. 373 ERA, 0.99 whip, but the skills took a big step back, specifically the strikeouts. He also allowed a lot more hard contact, more fly balls, which led to more barrels, more home runs, unsurprisingly. Ryan Nelson, entered the debacks rotation after Corbyn Burns went down, and he was really good. 339 ERA 107 whip.

Underlying numbers don't buy it, but he's a weird pitcher. He has this really good fastball that he throws a lot. So I just wonder if maybe he's a pitcher that can kind of outperform his expected numbers. And Quinn Priester shipped over to the Brewers, and they unlocked him. They cut out his four-teen fastball. They mostly focused on a three-pitch mix with his sinker, slider cutter, and it worked very well for Quinn Priester.

Scott, the Imanaga offseason has already been interesting where the Cubs declined his three-year option. He declined his own one-year option, but then settled on the qualifying offer here. So he's back in Chicago. The qualifying offer was for like $7 million more than the one-year option, right? Right. Yeah, I think it was like $16 million or something.

Yeah, so this, yeah. this feels like it went exactly as the Cubs planted. And it does kind of cast that decision. Very much does that cast that decision in a different light. Them turning down what seemed like a reasonable three-year option. And we were like, does this mean they don't believe in Imanaga anymore? Well, no, they probably knew that if they extended him the qualifying offer, he would accept it. And that meant paying him more in 2026, but it meant they weren't committing three years to a guy who's already in his 30s and who did see a strikeout rate and swinging strike rate both drop precipitously in his sophomore season.

Funny to call the sophomore season, but technically true. Sophomore season for Shoda I'm, I don't think we need to hit the panic button with him. The Cubs, I think, are happy to have him back at this price. he still had a 0.99 whip last year. So he brings something to the table. Like the ERA rose, the strikeout rate fell off. Nobody's going to mistake him for an ace going into 2026. But I do think Shoda Imanaga belongs in that same discussion with Andrew Abbott,

with Matthew Boyd, with those less than strikeout per inning guys who you're mostly hoping will have respectable ratios and pitch a decent number of innings. And I think Shoda Imanaga is the best bet of those three to do that. I mean, not just respectable ratio with the whip, it could be an excellent ratio. Great defense behind them, too. That'll always help.

Now, the ERA estimators were pretty bad, but part of that's just he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. And so especially like XIPP is going to be inflated because of that. I think we can trust him to keep his ERA in the mid to high threes with that excellent whip. And he'll be plenty of useful in the middle rounds, Shodhii Minaga. Chris, do you buy either of Ryan Nelson or Quinn Priest's or after pretty impressive campaigns here? No. There.

I think they are perfectly fine rotation fillers. And they'll cost very little. So it's fine if they're the last starting pitcher you take. but I don't see any real path for upside for either Ryan Nelson or Quinn Priester. So it's more about what the rest of my pitching staff looks like and whether it makes sense to take a higher floor guy who I don't think has upside or if I want to shoot for the moon with someone who can really take off in a way that I don't think either of those guys is capable of. All right, 37, 38 and 39 we had Luis Castillo, Framber Valdez and Jameson, Tyone. I was very worried about Castillo's decline entering the season. And while there was a scary stretch there, he did manage a solid 354 ERA 118 whip. Strikeouts, hard contact still going

in the wrong direction though. For remember Valdez's walks crept back up and caused him to take a step back. He really struggled down the stretch as well. Last 10 starts, 605, ERA 155 whip there for Valdez, who is also a free agent this offseason. James and Tyone being here is just kind weird 368 ERA 106 whip he only threw like 120 hundred 30 30 innings feels more like a streamer type for fantasy just kind of use them in the right matchups but get a lot of wins what happened there was like 11 wins in 130 innings so that's a lot of wins these days yeah it's solid uh Luis Castillo clearly in decline Chris Bramber Valdez down season but I I think we still kind of depend on him as an

SP2 um Castillo can you see yourself getting back in in 2026? That's one that I cannot see myself reaching for Luis Castillo, but his price right now is 150.7 in these early drafts. He's going right around Shodi Yomaga. So it's an interesting run.

Luis Castillo, Shodiamanaga, Trevor Rogers, Ryan Pepeyo, Drew Rasmussen. I think I'd take Trevor Rogers over the rest of that group. Just shoot for the upside there. Castillo probably has more upside than Imanaga, but probably less than everyone else, unless there's a dramatic change in the skill set. I don't have a strong take on Luis Castio.

He seems fine. Yeah. If it's your fourth starter, that feels okay. Yeah. Scott, do you view for Embervaldez's 2024 as kind of the outwire? that we should just go back to expecting, you know, like a mid-3 ZRA and maybe a whip closer to 120? Well, it was a mid-3-ZRA, 366. I would say that's mids. Higher than we're used to see. It was 345 in 20203.

So we've seen some ups and downs with the ERA. The whip for a pitcher of his stature has always run a little hot. It was worse than that in 2025 at 1.25. I think what we've seen with Framber Valdez is his fortunes increasingly rise and fall with the effectiveness of his curveball. It used to not be so much the case, but the past couple of years it has been the case so that we get kind of these two versions of Valdez. When that curveball is on, he is as ace like as anybody, getting strikeouts at a rate that far exceeds his career rate. but then when it's off, he's pretty vulnerable. He gets knocked around a bit.

And so that can make him frustrating to roster. I think he's clearly a better head-to-head points pitcher than Roto because you've got to expect the ERA and whip with those ups and downs to both finish a little on the high side, but he's a great inning Zeter. Had a dozen wins or more in four straight years, and I expect the Astros to be competitive. Well, I guess he won't be an Astro, right?

But we expect him to sign with a contender. So with as deep as he pitches into games, I think Framber Valdez, you can count on him to get some wins. I think just because on that roller coaster ride, he kind of ended, you know, at the bottom of the hill. So that his ERA and WIP were high, a little higher than we're used to seeing them. That's going to maybe cause him to be underdrafted. But I think he's the same pitcher. I have Fromber Valdez 18th. and I'd be happy to take him as my number two.

Or even in a scenario where I'm going like super cheap at starting pitcher. I don't think it's crazy to take Framber Valdez as number one. He'll give you a lot of volume. The one thing I will notice, he's 32. And so he has at an age where a sudden dramatic drop-off would not be shocking. I'm fascinated to see what the marketplace looks like for him. Is this a guy who's going to get, you know, five years, $130 million? I don't know.

He's going to get paid. I would think so. But given his age and the inconsistency, I could see it being a cold market for him. You bring up the age. And, yeah, I mean, any time a guy's approaching his mid-30s, there's a risk of that. But just to clarify, and I don't think you're saying this, but just to clarify, and I don't think you're saying this, but just to clarify, what went wrong for him last year to the degree we would say things went wrong. I don't see that as being age-related.

Sure. Yeah, sure. I just think the older you are, I say this, I hurt my back on Monday. I picked my wife up because she hurt her foot. And I was like, oh, I'll carry you around the apartment just as a joke and hurt my back. So I can say, I'm 37-year-old. It doesn't get better. And, you know, the thing I would say in a more serious way is fixing those things doesn't get easier, the older you get.

So, yeah. I have him closer to 30 in Roto, just because there is an element of with his whip and the huge volume you get from him, which is usually helpful in other cases. but with the whip, it's, well, the food was mediocre and the portions were too big, you know? Yeah. I mean, that's what I said about Logan Webb yesterday. It's just like, he gives you a 125 whip over 200 innings. It's kind of tough to. But it's kind of a multi-year trend with Webb, right?

I mean, in 2024, Valdez had a 11-whip. The year before he had a 113. Yeah, he's usually in the 110 to 115-ish range. Yeah, which is not helpful, but doesn't hurt you. Fremenez. Free agent this offseason for Franbervaldez. I have seen some Chicago Cubs rumors and with their defense. I think that would be pretty cool. Yeah, that'd be great. For Franmervaldez. SP 40, 41, and 42, we had Robbie Ray, Eric Lauer. That's right, Eric Lauer, and Emmett Sheehan. So Robbie Ray's first full season back from Tommy John surgery

was a strong one, though he did fade down the stretch. Final eight starts, 647, ERA, 151 whip. I think just kind of getting tired first full season back that seems like a reasonable explanation for Robbie Ray. Eric Lowers first season back from the KBO. He pitched really well, but I think most likely expected to pitch out of the bullpen for next year if the Blue Jays are aggressive as we're hearing so far.

And Emmachian's return, lots of returns here. From T.J surgery was great. He flashed huge strikeout upside, 10.9K per 9, a 15.6% swinging strike rate. That is elite for Emmett Sheehan. So, Scott, we have Robbie Ray, Emmett Sheehan here. Two kind of big strikeout pitchers heading into next season,

different parts of their career. Robbie Ray kind of feels like he'll be a fallback option, whereas Sheehan's probably going to be on everybody's breakout list, or most people. Yeah, I do wonder if Sheehan's not so dynamic performance out of the bullpen during the postseason. If he kind of lost some of his shine because of that, I know I was bullish on him down the stretch,

and I've already moved him down a couple spots. I have him ahead of Robbie Ray, for what it's worth. I will mention that over his final six regular season outings, he didn't say this yet, did you, Frank? Over his final six outings as the bulk pitcher, not technically the starter in something, but the bulk pitcher, 193 ERA, 0.72 whip, 11.8K per 9,

a 19% swinging strike rate, which is insane. Bunkers for him. Mass. That is, that would be a record if he had a 19% swinging strike rate over a full season as a starter. Okay. So I like Sheehan. That's a really good mark for a closer. I like Sheehan and I don't, I don't think it's because of how the postseason went,

I don't think it's going to be a situation where everybody's just pushing up his draft stock constantly he becomes too big of a risk to take. As for Ray, I'm kind of over Robbie Ray. He started out great. He had that new changeup he picked up from Terrick Scoopal, looked like a Cy Young contender, and then just collapsed down the stretch. He's always had struggles with control,

always had struggles with hard contact, always had struggles staying healthy. I think if you can get them as your number four, great. But I don't want him as any more than that. Because I think especially in a roto context, there will come a point where even if he looks great on a, you know, he has a stretch where I was like, oh, that was a great start.

Oh, that was a great start. He gives it all back at some point and ends up with doing you more harm than good in ERA and what. Yeah. So you're not really buying that. he just kind of faded because it was his first year back from the injury. Because I feel like that's pretty reasonable for Robbie Ray. Up until like August, he was, you know, a top 20 starting pitcher.

If he was younger, if he had been more consistent prior to Tommy John surgery, then I'd be willing to buy that argument a little more. But he's 34 and his has a very checkered past when it comes to playing baseball. I will say I don't see much difference between him and Kevin Gosman for 2026. I think they're very similar. Whip will probably be better for Gosman, I think. I would guess it was last year, yeah. But Gosman's whip was pretty harmful the year before, right?

122 the year before, 118 the year before, even though he was very good. 124 the year before that. So, Gosman's been a pretty big whip anchor. over the past couple of seasons in a way that I think he's going to be pretty, look, I think Gosman's a better bet for innings than Robbie Ray. So if you want to have Gosman ahead of him, I think that's fine. But I don't think the quality is a big difference between them. And honestly, I'm not sure Framber is that much better. He's more projectable. But I don't think there's like a big talent gap between Framber Valdez and Robbie Ray and

Kevin Gosman at this point. So you do buy the argument that Robbie Ray, just tired down the stretch and he didn't decline? I mostly do, but even if you just take it at face value, it's a, what, 365 ERA? I'm saying in the second half, not the overall numbers. The second half was rough, and he only had 8.2K or not yet. Yeah, I don't think he was like exposed or anything.

I think I'm willing to, because the same thing happened with Framber. You know, Framber was terrible in the second half, too. So I'm not going to, I know Framber has a stronger track record, but when you're talking about guys in their mid-30s, I think there's, Framber has less workload risk. But I think the performance risk is very similar for the two of them. You don't expect a huge strikeout from Framper in the first place is part of it too. His game is more ground balls. When that curve balls on, he can be a great strikeout pitcher, but on balance, it usually ends up less than a K-per-9. Chris, you are muted, sir.

And I do think you can expect a better strike rate from Robbie Ray in 2026 than he had in 2025. 24.6 percent, given the whiff rates that he had across multiple pitches, including a fastball at 24 percent, is very solid. I don't think I have too many performance concerns about Robbie Ray. I don't think he's an ace, but I think he's useful. The last three I'll just mention here, we have all offseason to talk about them. 43, 44, and 45, Ryan Pepeyo, Brendan Woodruff, and Sunny Gray. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank.

Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.