Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 Top Pitching Prospects! Jackson Jobe, Andrew Painter & More! (12/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 30, 2024

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ First off, this podcast was recorded before the Phillies acquired Jesus Luzardo so keep that in mind with Andrew Painter! We hope everybody has a Happy New Year (2:30)! ... Moises Chace kicks off Scott's Top-30 pitching prospects (4:45). ... Robby Snelling got better in the Marlins organization (13:22). ... Thomas Harrington is coming soon for the Pirates (16:42). ... There's reliever risk with both George Klassen and Jacob Misiorowski (22:44). ... Rhett Lowder continues to produce at every level (26:02). ... Who is Alejandro Rosario (33:06)? ... Can Chase Dollander be the one to defy Coors Field (36:53)? ... Hagen Smith and Chase Burns were high draft picks in 2024 (43:38). ... Quinn Mathews and Bubba Chandler should make an impact soon (49:34). ... We finish up with Scott's top three pitching prospects (57:44)! Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. There's no such thing as a pitching prospect, but we're going to talk about them anyway. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, December 30th. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.

today on the show, it's our final podcast of the year. We are counting down Scott's top 30 pitching prospects. But first, what do we have for New Year's Eve, huh? Big party plans. Scott, what do we got, devil legs? What's going on? Well, we're recording this before Christmas, I'll just reveal. So I have not quite looked beyond that to New Year's yet.

I have no idea what I'm going to be doing on New Year, New Year. What about you, Frank? I don't know either. That's why I asked you guys, but you know what? I feel like... I almost called it noon years. Did you notice that? Chris will come to our rescue because Chris seems like a guy that plans things out far in advance

and definitely has New Year's Eve plans. Was that sarcastic? I don't know. I am not a person who plans things out far in advance. I am an extremely absent-minded person. I do have New Year's Eve plans, but, they involve staying in with with some friends. We're going to have like a dog party basically, I think is the, the gist of it.

That sounds. We're just going to get all our dogs together so they can be miserable on New Year's Eve together. Although there won't be big fireworks in New York this year on New Year's Eve, I guess. Like they're not doing the official show. Oh, maybe there will be fewer fireworks because we're in a drought. Hmm. Hmm. So that's, I mean, maybe, maybe I don't know. I might be, that's what my wife told me and she's usually right about things, but I don't actually know.

It sounds like a great plan. I'm sure there are many people out there that would love that. If I was at that party, Chris, I might actually die of allergies. Yeah, yeah, that'd be a problem for you. There's nothing more annoying either than a stressed out dog. They're just panting nonstop trying to crawl all over you. It's terrible. I'm, I'm hoping everyone will be okay. I'm hoping everyone will be okay. But I just feel bad leaving my dog at home alone. So, you know, we'll see. It might be a situation where by like 10.30, we have to, well, we got to go home.

He's freaking out. Yeah. So, you know, you know, it's a high risk move. You did come through, Chris, because out of all three of us, you actually had an answer for something you're doing on a plan. Yes. It wasn't a good one. I do.

Yeah. I do appreciate it. I think we've wasted enough time on. this subject. We absolutely should and we have to talk about like 30 players. So let's jump in to Scott's top 30 pitching prospects and we'll go in groups of three. Keep things moving here and like the others, we are just counting down. Starting with 30 through 28, we have Moises Chasse of the Phillies, Jackson Ballmeister of the Rays and Jack Leiter of the Rangers. Chassee, 21 years old, came over from the Orioles in the Gregory Soto trade. And after joining the Phillies organization,

The dude was lights out. Jackson Ballmeister also came over in a trade. That one, he went to Tampa Bay from the Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Huge walk issues before the trade. And then, of course, joins the raise. And it's like walk issues never existed for Jackson Ballmeister.

And then Jack Leiter, we've heard the name many times already, turning 25 in April, very up and down career so far. He did flash some big strikeout potential at AAA this year. But Scott, so far in his major league career, he just has not been able to figure it out. What do you have here on lighter, Ballmeister, and Chasse? Well, first, let me say generally something similar to what I've said for the last two positions, outfield and shortstop. I think it especially applies a pitcher, though.

You get to a point in the rankings and there's just not much consensus anymore. And pitcher is the position when you're projecting prospects where consensus matters the least anyway. because you get high-end pitchers from all different ranges of the prospect rankings. You get more failures at the top end of the list. It's just there are so many variables that are difficult to account for, one of them being health. So just get that out of way. I had two dozen honorable mentions in my top 30 starting pitchers article

because it was so difficult to narrow down to 30. Basically here, Moises Chasse and Jackson Ballmeister were my two favorite of those couple dozen pitchers that I could have slotted in to round out the list here. In part because of the immediate improvements both showed after switching organizations mid-season. You mentioned this for Ballmeister. the Rays have a history of doing this with after he came over from the Orioles and the Zach Eflin deal, Ballmeister had a 124 ERA.59 whip

and 13.7 K per 9 in seven appearances. Cut his walk rate in half, well, by factor of three actually, started mixing in a cutter more with a fastball that pairs, it pairs nicely with a fastball at the top of the zone, has good swing and miscarriage, characteristics, and I just think I could see Jackson Ballmeister becoming the next pop-up

race pitching prospect coming over from another organization as so often has happened with them. Moises Chasse, I like because he has like the optimal modern fastball with the ideal-induced vertical break. Baseball America compares it to Christian Javier's back when Christian. Christian Javier's was like the standout for that, the gold standard. And Javier thrived basically with just that fastball when he got to the majors. It took them a while to develop secondary arsenal. Moises Chasse has good secondary offerings in addition to that fastball.

Has some control problems, may have some durability issues. Those are kind of common for all pitching prospects. But I like the base arsenal Moises Chasse has to work from. Can I derail us for one minute? To highlight a point that Scott made. Yes. Yes. I'm going to read the top 15 pitching prospects from baseball prospectus' 2019 top 100.

I want you to put up a finger every time you hear a pitcher who you would be happy to have in a fantasy rotation in 2025. Are you ready? What years is this from? 2019. So five years. Okay. Six years. Forrest Whitley.

Mitch Keller. Alex Reyes. Sixtho Sanchez, Michael Kopeck, Brent Honeywell, Dylan Seas, Dustin May, Mackenzie Gore, Ian Anderson, Bruce Dargraderl, Casey Mise, Chris Paddock, Tristan McKenzie, Josh James. Yeah, I've only got three fingers out. And it's not like Mitch Keller and- Yeah, you included in McKinsey Gore, who are two or the three fingers. They're not like fantasy standouts. Yeah.

So that 2019 might have been an especially bad year. I did not do that exercise with other years. But it's just to highlight that the attrition rate is crazy high at starting pitcher. Even at the high, like those were the top 15. We're talking about 28 through 30 right now. I will say Jackson Bowmeister is someone I, like Scott said, that I think has a chance to be a lot higher on these prospect lists midseason by the end of next, by the end of the season either way.

I think he's someone who could move. I don't know if move quickly is the right word because it's the raise and they don't really move anyone all that quickly, even their pitchers, but someone who could really take off. Like that was a name that a lot of smart people when he got traded from Baltimore to Tampa They were like, that makes perfect sense. They're going to get the most out of him.

And it's a similar situation to another player, the raise acquired around the deadline, Ty Johnson from the Cubs. His numbers were phenomenal after joining the race, too. He's among those honorable mentions I was referring to. Couldn't fit him in as well. But yeah, they definitely know what they're doing. We haven't really spoken of Jack Lighter yet,

who I know Chris likes a lot. And that's part of the reason. I included him here at 28. Part of the reason to is proximity. Like he should. I feel like this is going to be. He's got a really good chance to be in the rotation. And I think it's going to be a make or break season for it.

If Jack Leiter can't stick it now. And I don't think it's, I don't think it's clear that he's ready to. He did show some progress last year, enough progress that I think we can still get away with calling him a problem. prospect, but there are still walk issues and home run issues. But the fastball characteristics are really exciting if he can take another step with the

control this year. Big if, and he's probably going to have to do a lot of it in the majors. But for one more year here, I'm willing to call Jack Leiter a top pitching prospect. Let's take our first break when we return back into pitching prospects right after this. Welcome back in, continuing to countdown Scott's top 30 pitching prospects, 27, 25. We have Owen Murphy of the Braves, Robbie Snelling of the Marlins, and Ricky Teeteman of the Blue Jays. Owen Murphy, 21 years old, a first round pick in 2022 out of high school. Posted awesome numbers this season, only through 41 innings because he did have Tommy John surgery. So someone who is going to be a little bit further away at this point. Robbie Snelling of the Marlins, 21 years old, big lefty at six foot three. He came over from the Padres in the Tanner Scott trade last season. Snelling was awesome. in 2023 and people really thought, okay, this is one of the next big

pitching prospects in all of baseball, really struggled early on this past season and then looked a lot better once he joined the Marlins and Ricky Teeteman of the Blue Jays, a name we've heard for years now. He's still just 22 years old. Loaded with upside, lots of wifts. He's 6 foot four, big lefty, but he also

had Tommy John's surgery in the second half. Will likely miss most of 2025. Scott, I think all three of these names, I think we can pretty confidently say are pretty far away all three of them. Well, yeah, two of them recovering for Tommy John surgery. And all three of them, I would also say, I'm probably going to rank higher than the consensus. These are three that it could have easily justified leaving off the list.

Tiedemann and Owen Murphy, for the obvious reason that they're recovering from Tommy John surgery. And a lot of times we see pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery, they just get buried in the rankings, even though it had, the procedure obviously has a high success rate. I think it's just, well, we know we're not going to get anything new from this year. And there are so many other pitching prospects to highlight that will kind of just ignore them for now. But I don't want to do that with them because I think both are really talented. Owen Murphy looked like the breakout pitcher of the first two months last year with a 154 ERA, 0.73 whip and 60Ks and 41.1.1.8.1 innings. He was getting 20 inches of induced vertical break on his fastball, which is elite. And even

though there wasn't a lot of velocity on that pitch, obviously it was playing up with huge strikeout numbers and just he looked unhitable, frankly. So definitely want to stick it out with Owen Murphy in Dynasty leagues. Tied him in put up some of the most ridiculous strikeout numbers you'll ever see in the minors for the small stretches he was healthy. And remember, he made it to double A as a 19 year old. So I think there's huge upside here for Ricky Teetam and still willing to wait out the Tommy John surgery for him too. Robbie Snelling, when I went into this process, I assumed I was going to leave him out

because it was such a disappointing year. But you mentioned, Frank, after he joined the Marlins, 364ERA, 124 whip, 10.3K per 9. He made it to AAA by the end of the year, made one start there. It was a really good start. He regained some of the velocity. he lost early in the year. And this is a guy who was one of the most hyped pitching prospects of anybody. I think he was number eight in my pitching prospects at this time a year ago.

So given the improvements he showed late, I think I want to stick with Robbie Snelling here in my top 30 at 26. All right, pitching prospects 24 through 22. We have Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, Jackson Ferris of the Dodgers, and Caden Dana of the Angels. Harrington, look, part of this Pirates pitching program and development that they have, if you like pitching, you've come to the right place because, you know, over the next year or so,

a rotation that's going to feature Paul Skeens, Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch in Pittsburgh. Harrington is 23 years old, 36th overall pick in 2022. Doesn't wow you with stuff, but he has really good command. He throws five different pitches. Jackson Ferris, 20 years old, 6'4 lefty, came over to the Dodgers in the Michael Bush trade and posted really strong numbers.

He got even better in 7 starts at AA this season. And Caden, Dana, 21 years old, big dude, 6'4, kind of maybe unfairly draws Noah Cindergarde Combs because he has the long hair and he's got a wipeout slider. He is the latest in a long line of prospects. The Angels irrationally rushed to the big leagues. why they did it. He was 20 years old last season. He was, you pitched at double A all year, and then they call them up in September because they're the Angels. But Chris, I kind of see an opportunity, maybe not early on in the season, but, you know, midway through, I think there's good

upside with Cain and Dana, and, you know, we should see him back up with the Angels at some point. Yeah, given the fact that they went out and signed Kyle Hendricks, I think before any other player signed, probably tells me that that's, that the rotation there is set. They signed him. and then Cacucci, we figure, you know, Jose Soriano, Tyler Anderson, Reed Dettmers, they should all get their chance. But Caden Dana will be in the discussion and given the names there, it could be very, very quickly. I mean, Kyle Hendricks and Reed Dettmers, especially if those guys make five starts and are out of the rotation, I wouldn't be surprised. I don't think anybody would. So I think we see Caden Dana before long.

I like, I don't know, the Noah Cindergarde comparison. and like this guy averages 94 with this fastball. So it's, you know, angels know a Cinderguard, maybe. Which is not somebody you want him to be. Yeah, I don't know. There are a couple of guys. And look, the thing with there's no such thing as a pitching prospect is we tend to think of it as every pitching prospect bus or that. What it actually can mean is pitching prospects will always surprise you.

when you think good one, when you think they're good, they will disappoint you. The ones you write off as having no upside can, you know, turn into superstars. I remember, Scott, do you remember the guy Jacob de Grom got called up with? Was it Henry Mejia? Him and the Mets called up two prospects basically on the stream day back in like 2014. Rafael Montero. Rafael Montero was the guy. Like he was the guy everyone was excited about at the time.

And obviously their careers went indifferent. directions that Kaden Dana is not Jacob deGrope. But it is to say that there are a handful of guys who seem like low upside pitchers. Kain Dana, Brent Louder, I think is another one. You never really know who's low. I think Thomas Harrington kind of feels like a low upside pitching brosven. Yeah, I mean, I want to know who has low upside and who doesn't, you know. When we talk about upside, the way you're talking about upside, you're talking about who has

ace potential. Yeah. basically because Caden Dana even though the Angels just drafted Christian Moore in round one and he made a big splash right away second baseman. Most

lists I've seen out there of Angels prospects they have Cade and Dana ahead of him but a lot of it is the floor that they're like to do with the majors. He's made the majors. He was a workhorse at AA as a 20 year old but I agree that there's probably not an ace outcome here.

I think he projects as like a number three workhorse type, maybe like a Jose Barrios. I'm Mitch Keller. Yeah, I mean, hopefully a little more consistent than Keller. But that's what I'm foreseeing Cain and Dana being. And that guy will have, if he becomes that, he'll have a future in fantasy for sure. Jose Barriers was just a, was he a top 12 pitcher last year? He was close, if not quite that high.

Top 20, I believe. So like, that type of pitcher can also, even, if they don't have ace outcomes can still have upside. Back in in terms of volume. Put together a very good season. Yeah. And this trio is kind of like that. This is the range of my pitching prospect rankings where it's, okay, these are universally

considered top pitching prospects, but they're not like ace and weighting kind of pitching prospects. Caden, Dana, Jackson Ferris of the Dodgers who came over with Sahara Hope, the outfield prospect we highlighted last time in the Michael Bush deal. And then Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, who really stands out for his control. Baseball America grades at a 70 on the 20 to 80 scale. And the whole profile reminds me a lot of Aaron Nola, where he's going to have to rely on location and good sequencing to succeed. But he has the makings to do that and become potentially a high-end pitcher.

This is Thomas Harrington. but there's less margin for air for somebody who could just blow pitters away. I'm noticing some trends in the way you grouped pitchers in this range especially because the next three are all kind of variations on the same profile as well. A different profile than the previous,

a very profile than the previous three, but they are all variations of the same profile within their specific trios. Well, let's- How it's done. Let's talk about those names. Pitching, 21 through 19. We have Jonah Tong of the Mets, George Klosson with the Angels,

Jacob Mizzerowski with the Brewers. And I think what you were referring to, Chris, is lots of strikeout potential here, lots of relief risk, I think, with all of them as well. Jonah Tong, 21 years old, he burst onto the scene with a plus plus fastball, thanks to a unique delivery this season. George Klosson, 22 years old, came over to the Phillies in the Carlos Estevez trade. He has a huge fastball. with a slider and cutter, which led to a lot of whiffs, but also a lot of walks this season. And then Mizzi Arowski, 22 years old, second round pick,

massive dude, six foot seven, devastating fastball slider combo. I believe a couple years ago, it was the, what's that prospect game that they always play in, like, mid-season? It's the futures game. The futures game. He dominated, and everyone's like, future ace potential. Well, he only did it over, I think, one inning in that. Maybe it was two innings in that game, but that might be the long-term outlook for someone like Miziarowski.

So, Scott, talk to me, talk to us about the upside and the downside, I guess, of this group, Tong, Klausen, and Mizorovsky. So these are prospects who I think could sneak in as aces, even though they are not at the tip-top of the pitcher prospect rankings. They have the strikeout ability for that. I mean, you kind of summed it up already. Jonah Tong of the Mets, really both Jonah Tong and George Clause, and I think I'm going to be higher on than most people from what I've seen out there so far. But they both get written about a lot in fantasy circles because of that exciting strikeout potential. Jonah Tong of the Mets has this one-of-a-kind delivery where he's pretty over the top with the throwing motion,

and yet he gets that rising effect on the fastball. So it's kind of a mind trip for hitters. And when he was locating properly, they really couldn't do much with him. So I could see him, if things break right for Jonah Tong, I could see him having a really high end outcome because of that. George Claussen coming out of college,

it seemed like he wasn't going to throw nearly enough strikes to work as a starter, but the Phillies went to work on that, cleaned up his delivery, he was throwing plenty of strikes, regressed with the control after he was traded to the Angels, so I think it's still a work in progress

for George Clausen, but there's reason for hope he can make it as a starter, and the stuff is just unbelievable. Jacob Mizurowski has always gotten Tyler Glassnow comparisons, similar height, and they get the extra extension

on their delivery because he's six foot seven. But we really haven't seen any control game. from him yet. Year after year, it's been the same story. And he actually finished this past year in the bullpen at AAA.

I think just because they were trying to see if he could contribute in the playoffs for them as a reliever, and it didn't work out. I don't think they're like committing to making him a reliever yet, but he needs to show some progress with the control soon,

does Jacob Mizorowski to avoid that fate. All right, pitching prospects 18 through 16. We have Rhett Louder with the Reds, Cade Horton with the Cubs. and Tink Hens with the Cardinals. Ret Louder. He's turning 23 in March. He was a first round pick in 2023.

He actually made it to the Reds for six starts and performed well. The underlying numbers did not buy it at all. It was a 117 ERA when you say performed well. No, he was great. For Red Louder. But it also came with 6.5K per nine, four walks per nine.

A higher week than an ERA is usually a not-clay sign. Just an interesting prospect. Kate Horton of the Cubs, 23 years old, first round pick in 2022. Awesome in 2020. Then he was limited to just 34 in a third innings this past season due to a shoulder injury. Also has Tommy John in his past.

So there are some questions about durability. And I think something similar could be said for Tink Hens. He's 22 years old. You're looking at an awesome change-up, a fastball that plays at the top of the zone with a potential plus slider. The problem for Hens is that he's yet to throw more than 96 innings in a minor league season, and he was continuously plagued by a shoulder injury this year.

So there's upside with two names, Scott. I don't want to sell Ret Lauder short. I'm sure there's upside with him. There's more upside with those last two, but also lots of injury risk as well. Yeah, I don't really like Ret Louder. I'll just put that out there. It seems like there's one of these on every list where I feel obligated to rank them. high-ish.

I mean, I'm sure Red Louder will be higher on most lists than he is on mine here, 18. But I don't really see it. And the yeah-but is he had a 117 ERA in his first six major league starts. He's continued to outperform the projections just like he always has. But I just, when he's done, when he's. just starting out his major league career for all the success Red Louder had in college and the decent amount of success he had in the minors. I just need to see more before I bet on him being a unicorn, you know?

Deep Arsenal, good control. Maybe it's another Aranola type profile, but not to be like too obvious about it, but it's Mike Leak. Yeah. Right? Maybe it'll end up being more of that. Like that's, that's because it's a very similar situation. Obviously, both drafted by the Reds.

uh red louder did make some starts in the minors right or did he jump straight to the majors as well no he made starts in the minors okay um because mike leek i think made it straight from the college to the majors but louder moved very very quickly good results in the miners good ish result at the major league level but it's just it's hard to see what the path to like 10 k per nine is His swinging strike rate was less than 9% in those six starts. And the control wasn't even actually good. He's going to need to have good control. And by the scouting reports, he does.

But he struggled with walks despite putting up that 117 era. Yeah, I just, yeah, it's not a pro. Like, he's going to have a long major league career, I think. It's just you're kind of hoping for best case scenarios of like Chris Bassett, you know. Mm-hmm. Kate Horton was much higher on last year's list for the Cubs. This is a more conventional modern pitching prospect with the big stuff and strikeout ability. But he missed most of last year with a strained lat and he does have a Tommy John surgery in his past.

So I think major durability concerns there, Tinkens, you mentioned them for him too. He is killer. Super fun. I actually made a point to tune into a couple of his starts this year. he is really fun to watch. It's just, it's not clear he can be a starting pitcher.

And his name is Tink Pence. I'll never forget that name. But yeah, the fastball up in the zone, the change-up is a nightmare of a pitch. Really good two-pitch combo there for Tink Kents

that could carry him far if he manages to string together some innings. He gives me a little, maybe this is unfair, like it's unfair. He won two seconds. He gives me a little Tim Linsigam vibes.

Like, not the same delivery, but like very overhand. It's pretty unique. It's very, you know, north-south in the way he pitches. He just hasn't averaged even five innings per start. And I think last year he averaged under four innings per start. So that's pretty tough, especially when he's already at double A, you know. All right. Before we hit our final break, just a reminder that fantasy baseball team,

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more pitching prospects, the top 15 right after this. Welcome back in, counting down the top. Top 15 pitching prospects and numbers 15 through 13. We have Alejandro Rosario of the Rangers, Harleen Susana of the Nationals, and Travis Saccora, also of the Nationals. Rosario, 22 years old, a fifth round pick in 2023.

He looks like he might have three plus pitches with a fastball slider and splitter and just put up ridiculous numbers in his debut season. Susanna 20 years old out of the Dominican Republic, this dude throws heat. He was clocked at 103 miles per hour with a plus plus slider. Will he throw enough strikes?

That is the question. And Travis Sikora, also of the Nationals, 20 years old, third round pick in 2023 out of high school. So a little bit further away, he has the ace frame. He's 6 foot 6. He pairs that size with three potential plus pitches,

fastball slider, splitter, and he dominated his first taste of the majors as well. Scott, big upside, I think, for all three of these names, but also could be a little bit further out. We're probably 2026, 2027 for all three. Yes, but this is where things start getting really excited. This is where we start talking about potential ACE outcomes to the degree that you could even dream of predicting such a thing. You see it in these guys.

Alejandro Rosario was one of the biggest breakout pitchers last year, 13.1K per 9. to 1.3 bb per 9. Elite on both ends of the spectrum there. Fastball carries at the top of the zone, the elite characteristics, the modern characteristics that make that pitch elite. It's funny, he was terrible at the university in Miami, Alejandro Rosario was,

which is why the Rangers got him with a fifth round pick. But that was because they were having him throw his fastball down in the zone. It has those great characteristics at the top of the zone, and they were having him throw it down in the zone. They also had him abandon a – forget what pitch it was. I think it was a splitter. And the Rangers fixed all that.

They fixed all that, and it transformed Alejandro Rosario into a stud pitching prospect, it looks like. So good for scouting, good for coaching there with the Rangers. And then the two nationals here, Harlan Susana, who came over, in the Juan Soto trade was the least heralded prospect to come over in the Wandsoto trade

and now he's heralded. Look at that. And Travis Sikora. Socorah's numbers, they speak for themselves, especially final 16 starts, 145 ERA, 0.71-wit 14.2K per 9.

136 batting average against. Now that's at low A. So he's facing some young, young hitters who aren't prepared to face stuff as good as his, frankly. But it's not like he was old. It was, yeah, that's true. And it was so dominant.

And the stuff is so good that you expect it to translate as he moves up the ladder. Susanna, the overall numbers aren't as impressive. But he really pulled it all together with control strides he made at the end of May. final 16 starts for Harlan Susanna. 279 year I 107 whip 14.3K per 9. He has a fastball that peaks at 103, a great slider as well. The control will probably remain a concern for Susanna in the years ahead, but the stuff, the upside is apparent because of that stuff.

All right, let's move into 12 through 10 in the pitching prospect rankings. We have Chase Dolander of the Rockies, Thomas White of the Marlins, and Brandon Sprout of the Mets. Dolander, 23 years old, first round pick in 2023. It's a plus plus fastball, strong breaking ball, and change up, but it's also the Rockies. So there are questions, obviously, with Chase Dolander. Thomas White of the Marlins, he's 20 years old,

selected 35th overall in the 2023 draft. Big 6'5 lefty who has a strong fastball and slider to go along with a unique delivery. And Brandon Sprout, 24 years old, a second. round pick in 2023. One of the biggest breakouts

in the minors this season. He's got a deep arsenal highlighted by a fastball slider and change up. I think we could

see him at some point with the Mets next season. Chris, the question with Dolander, the million dollar question, we know the vast

history of Corse Field. Could he be the one to change that? No. All right. I don't want

to oversimplify because nobody's fate is determined. yet, but like, how many hands do you think you need to count the number of Rockies pitchers who have had an ERA below 3.5 and 150 innings in the same season? Just ever? Ever.

Maybe two? One, two? I'll say two. It has been done by four pitchers. How many fingers do you have, Frank? Man. Too many. Ah, yeah.

Would you like to know how many have done it more than once? Oh, I think it's zero. Ubaldo Jimenez did it twice. Okay. Kyle Freeland did it once. Ulyse Chasin did it once. Jorge de la Rosa did it once. Now, a 3.50 ERA is not the only way to be fantasy relevant.

You might notice, Irman Marquez, not included on that list. He's had some very useful fantasy seasons. I just, I don't know, man. Maybe this is just by far the most talented pitcher they've ever had, or maybe the Rockies have figured it out and have know what it takes to succeed at Corse Field. It's the Rockies, though. I don't know that it's that. You will never go, you will never go broke betting against the Rockies.

It's a losing, investing in any Rockies pitching prospect is a losing bet. The odds are definitely against Chase Dolander. I think in terms of talent, he's a top five pitching prospect. I have to lower him to 12 and hope he gets traded because of the almost insurmountable obstacle that Coorsfield presents. However, if there's a pitching profile that could theoretically work at Coorsfield, I think it's this one. So much of DeLander's success comes from a fastball whose outlier secondary characteristics. made it tops in the minor league and swinging strike rate. So it has that carry through the top of the zone

that hitters just swing under constantly. And the biggest problem for talented pitchers who've come to course field is it neutralizes their breaking balls. They don't break the same way in the thin air. They flatten out and they get crushed. but Dolander doesn't really rely on that. He's just got that amazing fastball. And in theory, that could work at Coors Field.

It's a losing bet. And I think Chase Delander, as long as he's in the Rockies organization, as they sell candidate in Dynasty leagues, but maybe. Like if you could make the case for why it might work, if nothing else. I think a really good outcome for Chase Dolander,

if he stays at Colorado is like a four ERA. That would be. If there's a lot of strikeouts. No, and that would justify this ranking. But yeah, it just there, there's almost no path to legitimate upside here.

And it's, it's unfortunate because he does seem like an incredibly talented dunk pitcher. It's just, it's so hard to make it work there. Thomas White further out, he's 20, years old, but lots of upside there, Scott. And then Brandon Sprote, four years older, 24 years old.

And I think a pretty good chance that we'll see him make starts with the Mets next season. In the first half. Yeah, I think there's a good chance. He did fall off quite a bit after reaching AAA at the end of the year. Could have been for any number of reasons. The fact it was late in the year and the innings were beginning to pile up. Will reserve judgment on those AAA struggles because he was so good in 17 appearances prior to that. Brandon Sproe had a 205 ERA.94 whip 11.3K per 9. Great fastball, reaches triple digits, deep secondary arsenal. I feel like a good comp here is Grace and Rodriguez.

And obviously, Sprote's only 10th for me. Grayson Rodriguez was always number one or two in the years leading up to his promotion. So kind of a, kind of a poor man's less heralded Walmart version of Grayson Rodriguez. The one. The one thing about Sprote. The one thing about Sprote is he can hit triple digits with the fastball. The shape is not great. And he didn't miss a ton of bats with it last year.

He relies more on the sweeper and change up for whiffs. And so, oh, I was going to make a comp that wasn't super flattering. And now I cannot remember the guy's name. and I can't get there because the website's not loading. You like the unflattering comps. You are a prospect wet blanket, Chris. Well, that is, I think, the role that I can bring to this is just like, talk them up, you shoot him down.

It's so easy to talk about this is what can go right for prospects. And Brennan Sproat, I think he's good. I think there's a lot to like. I hope we get to see him this year. Give him a Brennan Fott vibes, which I don't, Maybe that's just because they're both Brandon and their names both end with a T sound. But that's the vibe I get where, like, can dominate the minors. I don't know if it's going to work against major leaguers, but I'm excited to see him try.

Into the top 10, pitching prospects 9 through 7. We have Hagen Smith with the White Sox Chase Burns with the Reds and Kumar Rocker with the Rangers. Hagen Smith, 21 years old. First round pick in this year's draft. He was taken fifth overall. Big lefty, six foot three, throws up mid to upper 90s fastball with a sweeping slider from a low three-quarters arm slot. So lots of deception and strikeout upside with Hagen Smith.

Chase Burns, 21 years old, second overall pick in this year's draft out of Wake Forest. And he has the makeup of a future ace. He throws upper 90s with a fastball peaking at 102. And he hasn't made his pro debut yet, but my guess is he could make it. an impact at some point with the Reds as soon as next season. And Kumar Rocker, we mentioned the name.

Now 25 years old. I think one of the best stories in baseball. He was a star at Vanderbilt, drafted 10th overall by the Mets in 2021, didn't sign because of his injury history. He went on to pitch in independent ball. He re-entered the draft the next year. Then he was taken third overall by the Rangers in 2022. He did wind up getting Tommy John surgery, returned this season.

He was electric. He got called up, made three. He starts with the Rangers as well. So, yeah, I think making an impact as soon as next season. Scott, I mean, we're looking at flame throwers here with all three Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, and Kumar Rocker. Yeah, and obviously with Hagen Smith and Chase Burns, a lot of speculation at this point. Burns hasn't debuted yet for the Reds minor league system. And Hagen Smith's only thrown seven and two-thirds innings.

So we're relying relying a lot on projections and the fact that they were taken as high as they were in the draft, but certainly from what you read about them, you get the hype. You get why Burns was the number two pick. You get why Smith was the number five pick. Smith has got that low, almost sidearm, left-handed delivery

that gives the fastball elite characteristics and he can crank it up near triple digits. Great slider too. It's funny. Both Hagen Smith and another White Sox prospect higher on the list, you kind of see a little Chris sale there. The White Sox have a type, and it's a great type. Hey, we can calm them to get a crochet now, you know?

We can do that too. Yeah, it's a type. But Hagen Smith fits the type, and I'm excited about him. I might. I'm tempted to rank them ahead of Chase Burns, but Chase Burns 70 grades on both the fastball and slider, according to baseball America. I mean, the stuff is just electric for him.

him too. I just, I trust that, that rising fastball more than anything else right now when evaluating pitchers. And it's clear that Hagen Smith has that. I haven't, I don't, I don't think the like secondary characteristics on the fastball are as clear for Chase Burns yet, but maybe I'm wrong about that. Like I said, not, not much to go on yet. I do want to point out with Rocker, um, it wasn't just the,

the elbow, if I'm remembering correctly. The concern when he got drafted by the Mets actually was the shoulder. He had some shoulder issues. His velocity dropped his final season at Vanderbilt. And that was the bigger concern, if I'm remembering correctly. He is another one who's, he's very different in terms of how he's fun to watch than Tink Hentz, because Tink Hentz, you know, I made the Tim Linsigam comp. He's a little, he's a wiry dude.

Kumar Rocker has been built like a defensive. been in the NFL since college. He's just gigantic and he's intimidating as hell on the mound. The stuff is big. I don't know if the arsenal's there because he's got like, he says it's, he doesn't know, he doesn't call it a curve or a slider.

You know, he's not sure what he calls it. I think it's called a slider on baseball's Avant. It's slurvee and, you know, he can manipulate it a little bit to get two different movement characteristics, but it's basically just that. a fastball right now.

And that's the concern in addition to the history of injuries and the fact that he's only thrown 60 something innings in the past four seasons. I had a difficult time ranking Kumar Rocker. I'm sure some will have him higher than this.

I'm sure some will have him lower. I guess I'm going to kind of be the wet blanket here because I feel like we're going to find out really soon whether Kumar Rocker is going to work or And it's a best in its class slider. Nobody's slider can touch his slider.

He was running whiff rates like near 60% in AAA, I believe. The swinging strike rate, which is different from whiff rate, but swinging strike rate was 23% in the minors, which is just strider level, you know, beyond strider level, even 71% strike rate also elite. And look, Spencer Strider, a fastball slider. That's all he really throws. But the slider for strider, no, I'm sorry, the fastball for strider has the elite movement profile.

Rocker, he can throw hard with the fastball, but it's really just that best in his class slider. And what we saw during his brief Major League trial last year, dominated major leaguer is the first start, but then struggled after that because they learned just to lay off that slider. Like it feels like Kumar Rocker has to develop something else. make it work really and he'll have to do it soon or maybe the fastball plays up a little more maybe you know after you know this was his first full season back from Tommy John surgery so that that's also possible as well pitching prospects six through four we have Quinn matthews with the cardinals Bubba Chandler with the pirates and Noah Schultz with the white socks Quinn Matthews 24 years old a fourth round pick in 2023 he joins brandon sproat as another huge breakout prospect this year big lefty six foot five he

three to four miles per hour on his fastball to go along with a strong changeup and slider. Bubba Chandler, 22 years old, a third round pick back in 2021. Incredible athlete. He could have played football or baseball at Clemson, but he was drafted out of high school and opted for baseball at that point. He was actually... And he was, he looked like he might be a two-way player at first. Yeah, his first season in the minors, he was a two-way player.

Now he's just focusing on pitching and he is awesome. an electric fastball to go along with a strong change-up. He got up to seven starts at AAA. I think pretty easily could be in the running for a rotation spot on opening day. And Noah Schultz with the White Sox, look, it was a really, really bad season for the White Sox. Probably another really, really bad one coming up.

But the future is bright, man. There are prospects here. They could have a great rotation in, you know, a year or two from now. He's 21 years old, Noah Schultz's first round pick in 2022 out of high school massive lefty 6 foot 9 low 3 order

quarters arm slot his physicality and delivery has drawn comparisons to Randy Johnson I'm not not everything like he's not going to be Randy Johnson but just the way he looks and the way he throws he kind of gets those comps Chris Sale is a lofty enough comparison

okay we don't have to go all the way to Randy Johnson he has 6 foot 9 so like 3 inches 3 4 inches taller than sale yeah but yeah Noah Schultz has that same sort of delivery that just if your stuff is even decent it's going to be difficult to make contact with and Schultz stuff is electric and he'll have to prove durability he's even last year just 88 in a third innings not so much because he couldn't stay healthy but because they're slowly

building him into a starter's workload but just looking at his size you would think Noah Schultz would be able to take that on and very, very high-end pitching prospect of number four, just behind a Bubba Chandler and Quinn Matthews. Chandler, I think if we're talking where he eventually slots in the Pirates rotation, I think in between Paul Skeens and Jared Jones. I think the upside is higher than Jones,

but obviously not on the level of skeins. But those are all guys who have ace or close to ace potential, I would say. So really exciting top of the rotation and the making for the pirates. Were you about to say, Chris? Here's a Quinn Matthews question. I assume you were about to move on to him.

Yep. Quinn Matthews, I'm just pulling this one out of thin air, but Quinn Matthews might be the only pitcher in professional baseball right now, who has thrown 158 innings in a start. Right. now. Maybe there are some. Yeah, 158 pitches, sorry, in a start, which he did in the college world series. I don't know if it was a pretty big deal at the time when he was pitching for Stanford. He averaged six and a half innings per start in his final year at Stanford. He

racked up really big workloads. You can look at that both ways, right? So I want to ask you, Scott, do you hold that against him? Or, or, and I think you, can make a case that it's actually a positive, that he is a rare young pitcher who has actually shown, like there's not a lengthy injury history here, has actually shown he can handle like a classic ACE workload while being really good. And his velocity was up last year when he made his professional debut.

He averaged around 91 when he was at Stanford. He sat more 93 to 95 last year. led the miners and strikeouts, had an amazing season. I don't put much stock in it either way. I guess if anything, I look at it as a positive because he came through that without injury. And then he came into this professional season with the Cardinals, his first professional season, right?

Yep. And 143 in a third innings, which is a lot for a minor leaguer, was very efficient from start to start, actually added three to four miles per hour on his fastball, which was already that sort of fastball with the analytically friendly movement profile and then he adds a bunch of velocity to it.

That's why Quinn Matthews went from being an unheralded pick in like the fourth round, I think it was, to now a high-end pitching prospect is because of that at a velocity. So injuries are so common for pitchers that I think you have to assume it's a possibility for any, Anyone. Anyone, yeah. And the fact that he's put it off.

Well, like the biggest concern for me is, are they even capable of the workload? Is their arm going to collapse under the workload? And Matthew hasn't yet. He's the one guy. Like, he's the one guy in the miners who has shown he can hold up to it. Right.

Right. So if anything, I take it as a positive, that doesn't mean he won't get hurt because it's very common for pitchers to get hurt. but I don't think it makes sense to say this is why he will get hurt. And then when he gets hurt, say, see, see, I told you so. Because it's just like, yeah, pitchers get hurt. They're all ticking time bombs.

But Matthews has managed to avoid it so far. To your point on the workload, 15 of his 26 starts in the minors of season, six plus innings, which is, again, it's not normal for pitching prospects to do stuff like that. I did want to ask on Bubba Chandler, the Pirates rotation as of now, according to Ross. The resource, maybe they make moves. Paul Skeens, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey, Fultor, Johann Oviedo. I mean, I think if Bubba Chandler has a big...

If he has a big spring, he's in the running. The ADP over at the NFBC is 280. So right around Kumar Rocker and Painter, would you guys take Chandler ahead of those two just for redraft leagues next season? No, not as of now, but it's the sort of thing where you've got to pay attention to what's going on in spring training.

Whoever's pushing hardest for a rotation spot, they immediately climb to the top of those redraft rankings. I mean, Jared Jones, we weren't really talking about him at this time last year, but then he made a bunch of noise in spring training, and it became clear he was going to win a rotation spot, and he started getting drafted everywhere. So I think that could be Bubba Chandler this year or Andrew Painter or Kumar Rocker or all three. All right.

Let's go ahead. One other thing, which might be totally out of date because we're publishing this. what basically two weeks after we're recording it. But Ken Rosenthal did report that the pirates are open to trading Jared Jones. Hey. That they're keeping their options open and they are willing to do it if it gets them a comparable talent as a hitter. So a lot of teams are getting sticker shock with the price of free agent pitchers. So I think teams with cheap pitching assets are realizing that could be.

an opportunity to cash in, but I imagine it would have to be a haul. It would have, yeah, I would think like a legit must start player at least. Like a Jaron Duran, something like that, right? Yeah, I mean, I was, the Red Sox kind of are the obvious one, but either Duran or one of those prospects. Yep. You know, that's what it would probably have to take. Into the top three.

Jackson Job of the Tigers, Andrew Painter of the Philly. and Roki Sasaki, who is currently a free agent coming over from Japan, likely to sign in mid-January. But just taking a look at each of these, Job, 22 years old, third overall pick back in 2021 out of high school. He might have the best stuff command combination of any prospect out there. Just hasn't really built up enough innings over the past couple of seasons. But, you know, getting drafted like he's going to contribute to $238.80. right now. Notably, I believe not arm injuries for Jackson Job. I think it was like a one of them

was a back, maybe an oblique, um, and maybe a hamstring in there as well, but it hasn't been shoulder and elbow. So that, that's one thing to keep in mind. Andrew Painter 21 years old, first round pick back in 2021. He has the ace build. He's six foot seven, two hundred fifteen pounds. You guys mentioned he was competing for a rotation spot when he was 19 years old, but now working his way back from Tommy John's surgery and Roki Sasaki, you know, we don't know which team he'll sign with yet. It sounds like the Dodgers and Padres could be the favorites there. Though his agent did mention maybe a mid-market kind of as a softer landing spot for Roki Sasaki because he had some kind of issues with the media over in Japan. So we just don't know.

What we do know is that when he's at his best, he's throwing 100 miles per hour with the insane strikeout stuff. But Scott, your top three. Here we go. Job, Painter and Sasaki. And I think this top three is pretty inarguable the names. It's just the order that people might dispute. I think most people are going to have Job as the top one instead of number three. Oh, I think everybody's going to have Sasaki. Okay. Maybe so. But I think at least people will have Job ahead of painter. I don't know. I mean, yeah, he's always stood out. out for the stuff and the incredible spin rates on all of his pitches. And in 2023, he really did have the numbers to back it up.

But this past year, even though he rose to the majors, Jackson Job 4.4 walks per nine, 9.4Ks per 9, between double, well, between his three minor league stops, which just you'd expect better from the top pitching prospect in baseball already reaching the majors than both of those numbers. And I don't want to make too much of it. but I'm going to make enough of it to drop them to three, if that makes sense. And another reason I'm doing that comparing Jackson Jope to Andrew Painter

is because Painter did get those six starts in the Arizona Fall League. So we don't have to guess how he's going to bounce back from Tommy John surgery anymore. He made those six starts and he dominated 230 ERA. 0.89 whip, 10.3K per 9. The velocity was all the way back. The movement on his pitches wasn't quite. all the way back, but he dominated in spite of that. And I think this really drives home just how high the upside is for Andrew Painter.

If he never had Tommy John surgery, he would be so hyped right now. He would be getting like best pitching prospect ever kind of hype, I feel like. If Andrew Painter didn't have Tommy John surgery, he'd be entering his third major league season. Probably, like you said, he was, he would, the Phillies were ready to give him a rotation spot as a 19 year old. And that's because him and Yuri Perez are like the only guys that have made to the major. Like Painter didn't make the majors, but he would have been there as a 19 year old, which just doesn't really happen. In that 22 season, the last one before he had Tommy John surgery and also his first full season as a professional, Andrew Painter made it to double A had a 156 ERA. 0.89 whip, 13.5K per 9.

32 walks per 9. 39% strikeout rate. Yeah. That is like an elite closer number. Yeah, that is like him treating every batter like their Joey Gallo. Yeah. It's, yeah, he was bonkers. Since it seems like he's at least 90% of what he was before Tommy John's surgery and with additional reps could get all the way back,

I'm treating it and ranking him as if it never happened. And then finally, Roki Sasaki, who occupies this top spot for me in part because, we can feel pretty confident he'll have a rotation spot no matter where he signs. He's only 23, so you can still apply some projection to him, unlike you can for most pitchers coming back from Japan. He can reach triple digits with his fastball. It's supposedly not analytically friendly in terms of its shape, but we heard the same thing for Paul Skeens. And it ended up being a non-issue. And I think it will be in Sasaki's case, too, because the real.

The real weapon for him is the splitter, which it just came out as we're recording this. After I wrote the article, but before we recorded this podcast, Baseball America gave Roki Sasaki an 80 grade for his splitter. Which basically doesn't happen. The grade is 20 to 80. You basically don't see 80 grades. Yeah. It's a bell curve distribution. The one thing, and I'll be the, I'll be the spoil sport because that's been my thing.

And specifically about Roki Sasaki, he is SP21, I think, in the month of December in NFC ADP. That's too high. I'm sorry. For a guy who has never thrown more than 130 innings in a season, has missed time with. arm issues the last two years. And look, the numbers are what they are. The strikeout numbers, the strikeout minus walk rate is basically better than like any pitcher we've ever seen coming from Japan.

Like better than Shohe Otani, better than Yoshinobi Yamamoto. The ERAs are really, really good. But it's a 235 ERA in a league where I think the average last year was like 304 or something bonkers. 304 in the Japanese Pacific League. that's good. That's still like three quarters of a run lower. But Yoshinovi Yamamoto was running 140 ERAs in his time.

So like there is a different. And look, Roki Sasaki, we're talking about 20, 21, 22, his last three seasons were or his age. Yamamoto was 23, 24, 25. So like that matters, but he missed tired. It's unfair to compare him to Yamamoto. But I think people are kind of not exactly slotting him in because Yamamoto was a top 12 pitcher in ADP last year. But like Sasaki is more or less being treated like he is already an ace at the major league level and will pitch like one next year.

And yeah, no, I agree. He's missed. He's only made 33 starts the last two seasons. And it was arm fatigue and either a lat or oblique that he's missed time with. but specifically the arm fatigue. It seems like injury reporting in Japan is very iffy. They do not have the same media standards as far as reporting injuries. So like, uh,

Yugano thing is the guy who just signed with the Orioles. He missed Sugano, I think. Sugano, he missed time with an arm injury. Maybe an elbow. It's not clear a couple years ago. Like it's harder to get injury information about the guys coming over from Japan from what I've seen. And so that is just, and his velocity was down about two miles per hour. He went from averaging like 98.5 miles per hour in 2023 to like 96.3 in 2024.

So there's a lot to like. He's clearly an exciting pitcher. I think he's in the discussion for the best pitcher who has not debuted in Major League Baseball. He's being drafted, what, 200 spots, 220 spots ahead of Jackson Job and Andrew Painter. I get that he's more likely to be in the rotation than those guys and probably. has a higher ceiling in terms of innings, but I do think he's being overdrafted for redraft purposes in 2024,

2025. Right, right. You gave more of the redraft analysis for Roki Sasaki when I was giving more of the prospect analysis. And I do think it's fair, like, okay, he's not the finished product Yamamoto is. He's only 23. And so I think it's fair to assess him like a conventional prospect, Roki Sasaki.

and as one that I expect to have a job right away, I don't want him 21. I'll probably have him outside my top 30 or even top 35. And so from that perspective, yeah, I think he's being overdrafted by a lot. But if we're talking, do I want him more than any other pitcher in a dynasty league? Yes.

And also worth mentioning for Jackson Job, if you play on CBS, he is RP only to start the season. So if you want to... Actually a positive in a head-de-head points league. If you want to slot him in an RP spot, If he's in the Tigers rotation, you got yourself a little spark, a cheat code there with Jackson Job to start this season.

All right, there you go. Top 30 pitching prospects. I want to wish everyone a happy and healthy New Year and just thank each and every one of you for another successful year. We obviously cannot do any of this without you. So whether it's listening to podcasts, watching us on YouTube, supporting us any way that you do, we really, really do appreciate it. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next year on Thursday. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.