Fantasy Baseball Today - 2025 Top Shortstop Prospects! Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer & More! (12/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 17, 2024

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Before we start, what is Scott's methodology for ranking prospects (3:15)? ... We're counting down Scott's Top-20 shortstop prospects, starting with Angel Genao from the Guardians (4:35). ... Luisangel Acuña surprised in a small sample (6:50). ... Cole Young has yet to show off much power (13:10). ... Jacob Wilson hits for batting average but will he offer anything else (14:58)? ... Felnin Celestin has big upside but is far away (19:00). ... Buy-low on Colson Montgomery (20:40)? ... Alex Freeland is an interesting name with the Dodgers (24:06). ... Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin were just drafted in the 2024 draft (27:22). ... Aidan Miller has power potential with the Phillies (29:59). ... Kevin McGonigle does a little bit of everything (33:45). ... Carson Williams is loaded with tools but will he hit (38:48)? ... Jett Williams is a polarizing prospect (41:46). ... Jesus Made has #1 overall prospect upside (45:02). ... Sebastian Walcott has big power potential but will he hit (46:56)? ... Leo De Vries is already being pushed aggressively by the Padres (49:50). ... Colt Emerson is loaded with potential (51:40). ... JJ Wetherholt looks like a five-category producer with the Cardinals (53:50). ... Marcelo Mayer should make an impact with the Red Sox in 2025 (56:10). ... How long until we see Jordan Lawlar up with the Dbacks (1:00:43)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up, and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 17th. I am Frank Stamphled, joined by Scott White and Chris Sowers.

Today on the show, we are jumping back into top prospects. Last week we broke down all the infield prospects minus shortstop. So today we are dedicating an entire episode to just this position because there is so much talent. Here's how it's gonna work. We're counting down Scott's top 20 short stops from 20 to 1. So, you know, three minutes per player. Let's see how we do with that.

Heads up, we are recording this in advance, so we won't be talking about any news or notes. So if there's anything else that has happened, you'll have to wait till Thursday or if it's that big, big. I'm sure we have an emergency podcast coming out. Maybe one of these guys has been traded already. Who knows? Honestly, Scott, the way things are going right now, that might just happen. All right, so let's jump in. We are counting down the top 20. Once again, if you want to read

about any of these prospects or any of Scott's prospects at any other position, you can go to CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball to check that out. Number 20, you have Anheel Hinau of the Cleveland Guardian. Scott, he is 20 years old out of the Dominican Republic. switch hitter, big hit tool, lots of speed. MLB.com has his potential ETA as 2026. So he's a little bit further away. What can you tell me about? Anheil Hinao.

Well, first, if you don't mind, I'm going to waste what limited time we have, getting into methodology a little bit because there are a lot of shortstop prospects, and there are going to be some names that are highly regarded elsewhere that are left out of my top 20, maybe even ahead of somebody like Anhele Hinau, who I put here in part because he is, he's already mastered A ball and is ready to move up to AA. So there's this term in the prospecting world,

personal cheese balls that refers to prospects that you're higher on than the consensus. But I feel like you get to a point in the prospect rankings, you get far enough down the list, that you break through that consensus layer and it's all cheese balls and I think starting here at 20

at shortstop we're in the all cheese balls section so I like to prioritize near term guys that I think will be something in the majors rather than very down the level down in the very lower levels

tons of upside theoretically but huge potential that they'll just totally bust so I'm leaving some of those guys out. I'm going with an Anhele Hanau instead. And what I like about Hanau is that he's a very good hitter in the hit tool kind of sense. He batted no less than 307 in any one month between low A and high A. Doesn't chase for being a guy so young has a really good understanding of the strike zone. And while there isn't a lot of raw power, it's improving.

He improved his exit velocities this year. He also stole 25 bases. So it's a very conventional Guardian's middle infielder prospect. I feel like they have a lot of these guys with a really good hit tool. Not sure if the power is ever going to get there. But Hanao seems like he's the very best of those options and has less downside risk than some of the others. Scott, you bringing up personal cheeseballs reminded me of,

did you guys ever eat that like a barrel of like Ux cheese balls? I bought one of those recently. They're so good. Yeah, love those things. Gosh, I mean, your fingers get covered in, I guess, like, artificial cheese, but, you know, all right. Pro tip, pro tip. I eat it with a fork. Do you do it?

I was going to chopsticks. Chopsticks, all right, yeah, because. For Cheetos. People think I'm so weird for eating cheese doodles with a fork, but, you know, it gets under your fingernails. Preserving the fingers. I get it. It's weird. Fork doesn't seem like the right choice, though.

I think spoon would be better. Now, fork is good. You get in there, stab them, pick it out pretty easily. It is a little odd. Some of the things we choose to eat with silverware and not. Like, there comes a point where it feels just cultural as opposed to practical. Like, for instance, let's say you have a steamed green bean. No butter or anything, just, you know, just kind of steamed. What's stopping you from eating that with your fingers? Like, it's less messy than cheese doodles.

clearly, and it's shaped like a French fry. It seems like it's made for eating with your fingers, but you can't eat it with your fingers because that's barbaric, it's uncouth. You can do it with your fingers. You could do it, Scott. I won't tell anybody.

But it's uncouth. Yeah. Who cares? Let's talk about Scott's number 19 shortstop prospect, and that is Luis Anhele Acuna of the New York Mets. Of course, the younger brother of Ronald Acuna. And Chris, I remember you bringing this up in season. it's pretty scary how similar their swings look.

Ronald and his younger brother, he turns 23 years old. In March, he's had a very up and down minor league career. Got a taste with the Mets, 14 games, extremely small sample. He was awesome in that small sample. He hit 308. He had three home runs. He had a 966 OPS. That's the whole reason he's here.

I think I said on the podcast prior to him getting called up, he's not going to be a top 100 prospect for me next year. but then he came up and made such an impact for the Mets, became a cult hero for their fans, I feel like, with the damage he did filling in for Francisco Lendor down the stretch. And it doesn't take much to move the meter with prospects. Clearly, there's pedigree here for Luis Sanjah, Ocuna. But I think you're about to go to Chris, and I just jumped in.

It's all good. Chris, look, there's intriguing power and speed here for Acuna, and he could play multiple different positions. I just, you know, as stacked as the Mets are going to be, I think, they're continuing to make moves. They want to obviously go for a World Series. Will he have a chance of play? That's the biggest question.

Yeah, I mean, the nice thing is there's some flexibility here, right? Like, he can play shortstop. He would be very good at second base. I don't know how much he's played outfield, but it feels like he can play outfield, right? Like that feels like a move. It's been discussed, yeah, in a pinch. I just think the problem is it was Fools gold.

I don't really buy that what he did in the major league level was really sustainable. This is a guy who like there is some pop here. You know, the max exezyvelo and the majors was 109 miles an hour. That's pretty good. It's not great, but it's not a slap hitter. The problem is like pretty good pop.

hits probably too many ground balls. I just don't know how much I buy it. He might be one where like, you know, Ronald Kuna has had problems hitting the ball on the ground too much as well. It's just when your max exit Velo is 120 miles per hour, which I think he is one of the four players who has ever done that in the Stackast era.

And your average is like 94 or whatever it was in his MVP season, you can get away with hitting a few too many ground balls. I don't know if Luis Sainhala Kuhna can really get away with it. And I think you saw that when he got to AAA. And really, outside of the half season with Texas at AA in 2023, it's been a lot of pretty meager production throughout Luis San Helacquina's career. So I'm, he's got a ton of speed. he makes a decent amount of contact he's got decent pop and like it could all come together right that's

that's what i was going to say it could come together as like an andres hemenas type you know maybe a little more pop but well what i what i what i i was cramming a lot of a lot into the phrase it doesn't take much to move the needle with prospects and what i meant by that is oftentimes it suddenly all comes together sure when You look at the numbers and it's like, is this guy really a prospect? And he was terrible. Luis San Helacunya was terrible at AAA last year.

That's why I said I wanted to leave him out of my top 100 this year. But you start looking at the individual components. And you said, he's very fast and he knows how to use that speed runs a lot. He makes contact at a nice rate. The exit velocities are very solid and potentially could get better as young as he is. and he positioned himself, I think, to get a look with the Mets at some point next year with the impact he made down the stretch in 2024. So I don't have a lot of confidence.

Luis Anhele Lucuna is going to be an impact player in fantasy, maybe ever. But he's right on the verge of showing if he can be. And I like that in a prospect. I like finding out sooner if they're going to sink or swim rather than sinking five years into a guy and then just having to cut him loose because he never developed into anything. All right. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll move on to number 18 in the shortstop rankings. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, counting down Scott's top 20 shortstop prospects. Number 18 on the list is one of three Mariners prospects you're going to hear about today.

That is Cole Young, 21 years old, a first round pick back in 2022. And he had a solid showing at AA this year. He hit 271, nine homers, 23 steals. It looks like there's a big hit tool here, Scott, and speed. Some questions about the power. What do you see from Cole Young? Yeah, there were always questions about power for Cole Young. And those questions as he moves up the ladder are being answered in a less and less favorable way. like the comp I keep making every year for Cole Young becomes a guy with lower end power and it's a shame all of these guys playing the Mariners organization, the three shortstop prospects

because eventually they're going to have to play at T-Mobile Park and that's going to suppress power further, you would think. So right now, Cole Young, good hit tool, seems to make good use of his speed,

but not going to be like an elite stolen base guy. So the range of outcomes, the potential outcomes would seem to range from like Stephen Kwan at the very high end to Bryson Stott to Jake Croninworth if he doesn't end up running much at all. I was saying like J.P. Crawford with the play discipline. That's more of a... Yeah, I mean,

Crawford never developed into the hitter that he was in the Phillies organization at the time. He never developed into much of a hitter at all. I would hope Cole Young is a better hitter than that. I know Crawford had that good second half in 2023, but apart from that, he was someone I wasn't excited to put on this list, Cole Young, but he was somebody who I felt like I couldn't leave off the list because he's going to be on everybody's list. Fair enough. Let's move on to number 17, Jacob Wilson of the Oakland A's son of former major leaguer Jack Wilson, of course. He's turning 23 in March, first round pick in 2023. And this dude hit 433 in the minors this year.

Only 53 games, small sample size, a 4% strikeout rate at AAA. Chris, the question here is, can Jacob Wilson do anything else besides hit for batting average? I'm not really a believer. I know, like, look, you hit 400 at any level of professional baseball

and you belong on a list and we'll get people excited and all that. He has some legitimately superlative skills. I just think, like, you just have to look at Luis Arias, who, like, I guess you can't say that Luis Araya's is the best case scenario for Jacob Wilson because maybe Jacob Wilson has more power. But frankly, I don't think there's a ton of reason to believe that there's even average power here. Like, Luis Aris is fine for fantasy. But like if Luis Arias hits 300 instead of 320, he's a pretty fringy fantasy option.

And maybe Jacob Wilson will be better than that. You know, maybe like he was 44th percent down sprint speed last year. But remember, he heard his hamstring in his very first plate appearance. So maybe he was just never 100% healthy. And then, but like he has six stolen bases as a professional. So I think there's not going to be a lot of speed there. the quality of contact metrics are really bad in a way that like I think his approach probably works against him as well where like maybe he has like 45 raw power but when you swing it

everything and you make contact with bad pitches that's going to make 45 grade power play like 35 grade power which is probably the Louis Sirius thing and so I just I think a lot of things have to go right for Jacob Wilson to be much more than a very fringe fantasy option. And I just don't know if the upside is like something I want to bet on. Well, yeah, I think, and maybe this is why some prospect lists tend to prioritize 17-year-olds who you're just hoping hit big and probably won't is because people are looking to maximize upside in fantasy. I hear a Luis Arise comp to Jacob Wilson, and I'm like, wow, it would be great if a prospect became Louisa Rise. Like that sounds like a successful prospect.

And I think Jacob Wilson could obviously be less than Louisa Rice. I agree that that's kind of the upside we're talking about here. I think Louise Arise is like maybe not a hundred percentile outcome, but like there aren't a lot of guys like that. I look at Jacob Wilson though Nico Horner without speed He's got a lot of runway He's going to be the athletics

Like to me downside I think of Dynasty Leagues is deep And if a guy Is on the verge of being a major league regular Which Jacob Wilson is going to be This is the opening day shortstop That counts for a lot for me Is he going to ever be a top 10 shortstop in fantasy

I kind of doubt it But is he going to be a top 20 shortstop in fantasy. Pretty good chance. The steamer projections for Jacob Wilson, 286, 8 home runs, 3 steals, and 126 games. And that's as a rookie, so

I don't know. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but if we get to the peak, can he be 12 to 15 home runs, maybe, and like 5 to 7 steals? It's just not exciting, but maybe he does all of that with a really, really good batting average. Your number 16 shortstop, Scott, you have Feldman Celestine of the Seattle Mariners, and he is

extremely young, 19 years old, loaded with potential. If everything clicks, we could be looking at a five-tool player, but he's just so far away. He's only played 32 games in rookie ball. For what it's worth, those numbers were amazing. So big upside here, Scott, but a very long wait on Feldman Celestia. So as I've been saying, there are a lot of teenage shortstop prospects

with a lot of theoretical upside that I could choose to highlight here. but this seemed like the most representative of them, Felnyn Celestin. And partly that's because he meets the high defensive threshold at shortstop. He's not a shortstop, a name only. He's probably going to stay at shortstop. And part of it's because his approach at the plate is already so advanced in terms of which pitches to swing at, which wants to take, how high quality his contact is. To me,

the dream scenario for Felny and Celestin is Hanley Ramirez. That's a comp that gets made a lot for teenage shortstop prospects, so don't take it as gospel. But I think that's the kind of upside we're talking about if everything breaks right. You know, you say the name Hanley Ramirez, and my personal reaction is,

you had my curiosity. now you have my attention. One of my all-time favorite baseball players. Yeah. Electric back in the day. Number 15 on your list. You have Colson Montgomery of the White Sox and how the mighty have fallen. Montgomery was rated as a top 15 overall prospect

entering last season. He struggled mightily at AAA. He had 214 with a near 29% strikeout rate, bad quality of contact. Perhaps it creates a buying opportunity in Dynasty leagues or, you know, a last round pick in the redraft league, something like that.

I had the Welsh Sean a month ago. He saw Colts from Montgomery out in the Arizona Fall League. He kind of speculated that maybe he was playing through an injury this past season. And for what it's worth, Montgomery looked great in the Arizona Fall League. Plate discipline was much better. He had more walks and strikeouts while he was out there. I did see Baseball America's write-up. They made reference to some sort of injury he was.

playing through, but I couldn't find much confirmation of that. But it would make sense because it was just, it was such a steep drop off in production at AAA for Colson Montgomery. And the strikeout rate was just absurdly high. It hasn't seemed to hurt his prospect stock that much with the conventional rank list. They're all giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt. he did, you mentioned the Arizona Fall League, he improved, and he showed improvement late in the season as well,

a AAA 275 with eight home runs in his final 37 games. But while last year he was like a top five shortstop prospect, now I have him here at top 15 because obviously there's more reason for concern. But I don't think the upside has changed, but certainly the bust potential has. There's a really good piece on, fan graphs from October of this year with Colson Montgomery talking to David Laurela,

sorry if I'm mispronouncing your name, where he talks about like the mechanics of his swing. And he tried to pull the ball in the air early in the season. And he says it just completely screwed up his swing. He wasn't keeping the ball. The bat had in the zone a lot long enough was swinging and missing at pitches that he should have hit. So that was that seems to.

That's his explanation for why he had a bad season in 2024. I will say, you know, we talked last week about Adial Amador and the Colorado Rockies and just not giving the Rockies the benefit of the doubt. I'm kind of there with the White Sox where, you know, the last couple of big name prospects for them have, I mean, really not last couple outside of Luis Robert, their biggest prospects over the past half decade have pretty much all flopped. So, yeah, that's my concern there.

Obviously, it's a different version of the organization, although based on last year, maybe not a better version of the organization. Yeah, I don't think it was baseball in America that said Colson Montgomery had an injury. I'm reading their write-up again and not seeing it there. So, you know, but what Chris said makes a lot of sense, too. Some early reports that Colson Montgomery will compete for a spot this spring, whether it's at shortstop or third base where he played third base while he was in the Arizona Fall League.

So that could be an option for the White Sox this spring. Number 14, we have Alex Freeland of the Dodgers. He's 23 years old, a third round pick back in 2022. Switch hitter hitter with some pop and some speed. He had 18 home runs, 31 steals, and hits the ball really hard. 91.7, average exit velocity at AAA. but questions about the batting average, Scott, had over 130 strikeouts two seasons in a row in the minors.

And of course, he plays for the Dodgers. So your best bet is probably him getting traded to another team. Well, maybe. He seems like a legit shortstop, and that's a position they've struggled to fill ever since Trey Turner followed Corey Seeger out the door. Mookie Betts is in line to play there now. And if that doesn't work out,

they could shift Tommy Edmund. to shortstop, but they might just want to leave Tommy Edmund and center. Freeland now has performed well at AAA. He's 23 years old. He's close. He's close if the Dodgers need him. And he was one of the biggest risers this past year. Wasn't really well known among dynasty players prior to last year.

But there's a lot to like here. There's power, there's speed. He walked 91 times between three levels last year. And just a really solid all-around prospect is Alex Freeland. It's just he might hit 225 in the majors. Like he might be a pretty good player overall because he'll walk a ton. But yeah, that's the concern looking at it is it looks like both a relatively high strikeout rate player and a low Babbitt player, which, you know, like look. Yeah, I don't know.

The strikeout rates don't concern me that much. A 25% strikeout rate, it was probably even less than that. It was 21% at double a 27% at triple. Yeah, that's not bad at all. It's not bad, but then that's a double end. Like if it's 27% at the major league level, and he's a guy who hits a lot of infield fly balls and has just generally run pretty low,

Babbips at the high miners. It's just, yeah, I don't know, good zone contact rate, very low chase rate, 19% at triple. I don't know. I think you guys are selling the hit tool a little short here. I didn't want to point out the 27% strikeout rate at AAA. That came despite a 7.9% swinging strike rate. So those things don't line up.

I wonder if something with like the ABS system. There could be some passivity there. Yeah, that's what I would say. Taking too many hitable pitches. Yeah, it's a possibility. But okay, so across the three levels, where's the plate appearance? for Alex Freeland. Because of course, you'd expect a guy's first stint at AAA.

He's going to strike out a little more. But you normally don't see a guy going from being a 20% strikeout guy at one level to an almost 30% strikeout rate at another level. Like normally their strikeout rate, once they have time to adjust, holds pretty steady. And yeah, his overall strikeout rate last year was 21.6% between the three levels. I don't see this as a big concern for Freeland. All right, next up, I'm going to put 13 and 12 together here, Scott,

because they were both drafted out of high school in this year's draft. So number 13 is Bryce Rainer of the Detroit Tigers, and number 12 is Connor Griffin with the Pittsburgh Pirates. So just wanted to point out, the Tigers system is so loaded. I'm behind the eight ball here, but man, I was looking through their prospects. They have a lot of very interesting names. Bryce Rainer, 19 years old, as I mentioned, first round pick in this. year's draft, already a big body, six foot three, so, you know, very projectable.

He's, it could be a five-tool player. He's got hit. He's got power. He's got some run. And then Connor Griffin, also 18 years old. Another big dude, six-foot-four questions about the hit tool, but could be a 30-30 bad. I mean, he had 87 steals in high school this season. He led the nation.

So a big upside for both of these guys. Scott, what do you have on Bryce Rainer and Connor Griffin? Not much. because they didn't play. As professionals last year, they got drafted out of high school. And so you're just totally going on scouting reports here. And maybe you can find video clips of highlights and say, oh, that guy kind of looks like Hunter Pence or whatever.

And they tend, when they're, the year after they're drafted, they tend to be viewed with rose colored glasses given every benefit of the out and then a lot of times they get to playing in minor league games and their stock can plummet. So we're pre-plummit right now for Bryce Rayner and Connor Griffin. We're seeing them through the rose-colored glasses and they're all tooled out. I've seen I've seen Corey Seeger, a Corey Seeger comp for Bryce Rayner. I think that probably gives the hit tool a bit too much credit. He's going to have some issues with strikeouts that I think will prevent him from being Corey Seeger.

but there's there's offensive potential. Connor Griffin, I think, is a little more raw, but is also a little more tooled out, can steal a lot of bases. I think he, I don't know, they both rate well for power, but Griffin might have even higher ceiling as far as that goes. I do think in the long run,

and some prospect publications even list him as this, I think in the long run, Connor Griffin's going to be an outfielder, rather than a shortstop. But since he hasn't played as a professional yet, we can't say for sure where the pirates are going to play. All right. Number 11, you have Aidan Miller with the Phillies, who is 20 years old, a first round pick just last year in 2023,

27th overall, and projects to hit for big power. I mean, the upside here, raw power grade, according to Fangraph 70, and for MLB.com, it's a 60. So, Chris, if we ever see a, and Miller make it to the Phillies. It's a great ballpark to hit in and he's got lots of power. Yeah, I mean, I think the key thing there is it's the Phillies

and it's the Dave Dombrowski Phillies. So there's a probably an even chance that he ever plays for the Phillies. But yeah, like looks like a lot to like. Good power, plate discipline. Looks like what you want from a guy at that age and stage in his career. it's just until you get to the high level of the minors, you know, it's a less extreme version of what Scott was talking about.

But like that jump like, okay, you were good at Class A and, you know, high A. Five games at double A, I still think that means you've got a lot to prove. And I think that's where Aiden Miller is, especially when you're talking about a guy who scouts, at least think has some hit tool questions. Scott, anything to add on Aiden Miller? He still seems to earn high marks for power.

It hasn't really manifested yet with the 11 home runs and almost 400 at bats. But that still seems like it's going to be his carrying tool if he has one. So hopefully we see more evidence of that this year. Mostly, I think it's encouraging that he's made it to AA as a 20-year-old. All right. Let's take our final break when we return into the top 10 shortstop prospects. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in before we move into the top 10 shortstop prospects.

We'll recap 20 through 11. And Scott had Anheel Hinao of the Guardians at number 20, followed by Luis Anhele O'Kuhnuchunia with the Mets, Cole Young with the Mariners, Jacob Wilson with the A's, Feldman-Selsene with the Mariners, Colson Montgomery with the White Sox, Alex Freeland with the Dodgers,

Bryce Rainer with the Tigers, Connor Griffin with the Pirates, and Aiden Miller with the Phillies. into the top 10, another Detroit Tiger, Kevin McGonigal, 20 years old, 37th overall pick in 2023, and we are looking at a big hit tool here. Hit 309 in the miners, added 22 steals and 853 OPS. Scott, I know this has to be a prospect right up your alley because he has awesome play discipline.

Yeah, yeah, I do like that. It's obviously a bigger deal in points leagues than Roto. but I do think it makes for a more projectable path overall. I used to have a philosophy with prospects that if you could hit, if you had a good hit tool, you had good plate discipline, you could develop the power later. I think that was mostly true during the juice ball era,

which is covered like half of my career. And there were some notable, like Francisco Lindor feels like the like archetype of that where you really didn't have. for power at all in the miners, but great contact skills and it turned into power. Yeah, that is a big one. And there were a lot of examples of that. So McGonigal, I wasn't, by ranking him 10th here, I wasn't giving him that kind of benefit the doubt.

I feel like I keep using that expression. I was trying to think of a different one. But you look at some of the scouting reports for McGowan. Gondigal, and they make it sound like power is in the offing for him. And so maybe I have him ranked too low here because the hit tool is great, the plate discipline. He walked 46 times compared to 28 strikeouts between the two levels of A ball. So that's great. He steals bases.

Really the only thing that's missing is power. The comp I made in the article was like a Brandon Nimmo or maybe an early career, Matt Carpenter before he started selling out for home runs. He was more batting average and doubles focus got on base a lot. That's what I was envisioning Kevin McGonigal becoming. But I just want everybody to know that the belief is out there that he'll develop actual power too, in which case he might be more like a top five shortstop prospect than top 10. Max Exavila last year was 112 miles per hour.

Wow. Hit a 434 foot home run at one point. which is, I mean, he only had four or five of them. So, you know, 20% of them were 430 foot homers. And that is a big thing for me. As I've developed as a baseball fan and analyst is there are so many. I mean, not so many, but there are a lot of guys in the minors who put up bonkers plate discipline and get the bat on the ball.

And like, look, these are professional baseball players, but defense in the minors. is not very good, especially compared to the majors. And so you can run up super high batting average on balls in play. And you can run low strikeout rates because there aren't a lot of pitchers who can consistently challenge you for strikes with good stuff. It's just if you can't hit for power, it's really hard to run that kind of play discipline and become an effective, like truly effective hitter at the major.

There are places for guys like that at the major. league level to a certain extent. Like Nick Madrigal is on the low, low end of that. But, you know, we've seen like Niko Horner and Bryson Stod and Adra Simmons as these guys who have like 15-ish percent strikeout rates below average power, but are enough of a threat that you can't just pound them with fastballs and get them out that way. And so if McGonigle can be even an average power hitter, it makes everything else look so much better. And so that. That's the key thing to watch. If he can be a 10 to 15 homer guy,

even that is a big deal for this kind of profile. Yeah. Well, I mean, baseball America, their grade, their power grade for Kevin McGonagall is 55, which would be more like a 25 to 30 homer guy. Fangraphs has the upside for raw power at 45,

and then MLB.com has it at 50. So if we can get 15 to 20 home runs out of him with a really good batting average and he has some sneaky speed. Kevin McGonigal really interesting prospect. We're talking about the 20 to 80 scouting scale where 50 is average. So a 45 to 50, that's a reasonable range. That's like a 20 homer power. I think 45 to 55 is like there are reasonable disagreements. It might come down to swing shape.

But that seems like a, there. there's not that much disagreement, and that'll play if it's a 65 grade hit tool or whatever. Let's move on to number nine, Carson Williams of the Tampa Bay Rays, and he is 21 years old, first round pick back in 2021. The dude is absolutely tooled up.

Big power, big speed, awesome glove, 20 homers, 33 steals at AA this season. The big question, Scott. Notice, I haven't mentioned the batting average. I haven't mentioned the strikeouts. Will he make it? contact. That is the million

dollar question. I begrudgingly rank Carson Williams as high as ninth here. I really don't like him for fantasy. I thought he could be higher, honestly. Oh yeah, he's going to be higher. In real life prospect rankings for sure. Yeah, well, because he's

a great defender. And so that only matters in fantasy to the extent that it affects players playing time. Carson Williams is going to play a lot just because of that glove. And he can hit the ball hard and he can run well. But yeah, the strikeouts are a problem.

This is a guy who is even at the lower level striking upwards of 30% of the time. This year entirely spent a double A. He got it down to 28.5%. Still not good, but it's at least trending the right way. So I'm at least hopeful for like a Willie Adamas type outcome here offensively. maybe with more stolen bases. Let's say Willie Adomas the year he just had where he got to 20 stolen bases.

Maybe that's what Carson Williams can be. But if you fall short of that, it could be pretty ugly what he provides to you in fantasy. So already I'm thinking, I probably want to move Kevin McGonagall ahead of him because I feel better about McGonigal than Williams at this point. You want an irresponsible

comp that I just thought of. What do you have? What? Off peak Eugenio Suarez, but with speed. Okay. The one that I came up with not 49 homer Eugenio Suarez, but like 30, 31 homer bad batting average, but like that dude stealing 20 bases also, it's a pretty awesome player. I was thinking Trevor Story if his entire career was not in Coorsfield.

Well, hopefully, you know, the bigger problem for Trevor Storyouts. side of course field has been, what are those little guys called that like you hit a button and they collapse? You know, they're like a string. I know you're talking about. I don't know what they're called. Oh, yeah.

That's kind of what Trevor's story has become since leaving Colorado, unfortunately. Yeah, kind of has. And some behind the scene scouting, the Welsh and I got the opportunity to interview Carson Williams at the Arizona Fall League a couple of years ago. I can confirm huge fan of Fortnite. He was trying to rush us through the interview because he said,

I got to get home and play Fortnite, so that's all I can tell you. Sounds like a man whose head is in the game. There you go. Number eight, Scott, you have Jet Williams of the New York Mets. And I think a bit of a polarizing prospect here, 21 years old, first round pick in 2022. Small dude, just 5 foot 6, but he's got sneaky power, tons of speed. Weird season for him missed a lot of time due to a wrist injury. Played out in the AFL, also left the AFL with an injury.

But pitching in the Arizona Falle League is bad. Jet Williams had 30 strikeouts in 22 games there. So I don't really know what to make of him at this point. Well, I give him a break because he basically missed the whole season. With a wrist injury. With wrist surgery. Yeah. Right.

So while I don't love Carson Williams as a fantasy prospect, I love Jet Williams as a fantasy prospect. So I artificially or maybe not artificially, but I, I, applying my own sensibilities, I lowered Williams relative to the consensus. Carson Williams, they're both Williams, right? I lowered Carson Williams

relative to the consensus and I raised Jet Williams because I see a lot of Corbin Carroll-like traits here for Jet Williams looking at what he did in 2023. He's an on-base freak. He's going to steal

a ton of bases. Just a prototypical modern day leadoff hitter with the good on base skills gives you the speed you're looking for and isn't a zero in terms of power he's shorter than Corbyn Carroll

5'6 instead of I think Carol's what 5 foot 9 5 10 but it's that it's that same sort of the power catches you off guard just looking at him he can even send balls out the other way So I think there's a lot of reason for excitement for Jet Williams

because Francisco Lindor is locked up long term. There's a good chance Jet Williams lines winds up in center field rather than shortstop. Or maybe he's traded. That's always possible. But either way, I think he's going to be a better version of Pete Crow Armstrong, let's say. I have a more, what now seems like a more pessimistic comp. it feels very Anthony Volpey to me doesn't actually have good power

but can generate enough power to play but by doing so he has to sacrifice batting average in a really extreme way and that's what Jet Williams looks like now the thing is we have I don't know 600 plate appearances across three seasons now with Carson Williams to go on so Jet will do we have much exit velocity data

because I can't have, I don't get exit velocity readings on these guys until they get to AAA and he played six games at AAA. Yeah. I'm not seeing anything in the baseball prospectus. They usually reference some of the stuff. So yeah, I don't, I don't know on the raw power side. Yeah. Well, I hope Jet Williams is closer to Scott's analysis because I have him in the Scott White Dynasty League. And I'm rooting for Jet Williams, so I hope it works out. Number seven, Scott, you have Jesus Madee of the Milwaukee Brewers and that's spelled like made Jesus made M-A-D-E. I mean, just Jesus made is an awesome nickname.

Like, so we could also stick with that. Yeah. This is a name who is climbing rapidly. He is only 17 years old out of the Dominican Republic. He's only played in the Dominican Summer League, but he really impressed there. A triple slash of 331, 458, 554. showed off some power, lots of speed, great plate discipline. But, Scott, I mean, it's a dangerous game.

The guy is 17 years old. But I have seen some people say that he could be like a future number one overall prospect in baseball. Yeah, that's the thing. I said earlier, Felman Celestine was kind of the representative teenager with tons of upside who prospect towns gravitate toward. I was kind of putting Jesus Made in a different class than that because the upside is just so overwhelming and it seems like for being a 17-year-old, he has fewer questions to answer.

I feel like he, you know, 17-year-olds are obviously risky. They've got a lot of development ahead of them. Their careers could go in any number of directions. But this feels sort of like, sort of like Jason Dominguez felt like a can't miss 16, 17 year old. That's kind of what Jesus Made

feels like too. You know, they're already comparing him to like Jackson Churrio, who also got a lot of hype as a teenager and just like the Brewers did it again with Asus Made. And that's why he ranks this high for me. I think he's really special.

Number six, you have Sebastian Walcott of the Texas Rangers. He's 18 years old out of the Bahamas. Big kid, 6'4, projectable body that will fill out. Huge bat speed. Leads people to think there's a lot of power upside in the bat for Sebastian Walcott.

Chris, the question here, once again, is will he hit enough? He had 132 strikeouts in 121 games a season. If he can get the bat on the ball, it looks like there's some huge power with Sebastian Walcott. And he's incredibly young for the levels that he's got.

gotten to. I mean, he made it to double A as an 18 year old. We were praising, uh, who was it? Kevin McGonagall for getting to double A at 20, I think, or Aden Miller, one of them for getting to double A at 20. It's like, well, Sebastian Walcott did it at 18. Now, there is a little bit. We, we've, I don't know if I've, I've broached this on, on the actual podcast or just in our, our little pre and post show discussions, but the Padres and Rangers both kind of seem. to be running like a Ponzi scheme with their prospects. This is, this is my theory where they just aggressively promote everyone,

like a level ahead of where anyone else would. So that, because everybody, every team's got their model of like, this guy's numbers at this age, at this level, make him, and like maybe that that's,

that's kind of my theory that they're just juicing everyone's trade value. But beyond that, Sebastian Walcott held his own as an 18 year old at high A, like a 123 weighted, runs creative plus as an 18 year old is really impressive. And there's a lot of strikeout issues, as you would expect. There's a for a guy who has reached AA, there's a lot of different ways this can go because he is 18. Like that works both ways.

You know, baseball prospectus there, they're kind of high end and low end comps for like Fernando Tatis Jr. on the high end and Joe Adele at the low end. And like physically, there's not. that much different between Fernando Tateau and Joe Adele. It's just the, the ineffable stuff. The finer points of holding up to advanced pitchers, recognizing breaking balls.

That's what Walcott has to prove. And that's the stuff. He just hasn't, you can't really be tested on that stuff when you're in high A. Like that's, that's the thing is that the pitchers are just as raw as the hitters. So this is one that if he,

he's going to start a double A this year as a 19. year old. And if he starts out really well, then we're going to start to have some really, really interesting discussions about Walcott and like, this might be one where he falls to the bottom of the top 100 and maybe even out if he struggles or could be a top 10 worldwide prospect by, you know, June. The number five shortstop prospect is Leo de Vries of the Padres. Kind of just repeat everything we said about Spallcott. Yeah. You might see him in some outlets. The first name is Leo Dullis. So, L-E-O-D-A-L-I-S. 18 years old, signed out of the Dominican Republic last off-season. Another one, just big,

projectable power. He can run. He's showed, I think, more plate discipline than someone like Sebastian Walcott. Scott. Yeah. Look, Chris, you mentioned that, you know, the Padres are being really aggressive with these guys. They sent DeVrys out to the Arizona Fall League. Like, he just came over to. to the states this year. So I mean, he was 17 and he played 75 games at low A. That's it seemed. It's not quite the Ethan Salas plan because I think Ethan Salas was that like, was he at double A at 17?

Uh, but either way. Yeah. Yeah. Very aggressive. And again, held his own. Yeah. No, I mean, that you have to put the numbers for Leo de Verizon into perspective because the overall stat line probably won't blow you away.

But he was the top international signing, uh, going, was it going, yeah, I was going into 2024, going into last year. And usually it takes those guys forever to get to full season ball. And they put them right at low A. And it went horribly at first. But over his final 34 games there, he slashed 285, 407, 599, 10 homers and seven steals in those 34 games. So he, he figured it out. And that has me very enthusiastic about Leo DeVry's future. I'm not alone in that regard. Yes, I did want to mention, you know, while the batting average looks lower overall, 237, 361 on base. It's just a really good eye at the plate for someone that young. Again, 18 years old for Leo DeVries. Number four, shortstop prospect. You have Colt Emerson of the Seattle Mariners. He's 19 years old, a first round pick just last year, and he's got a strong feel at the plate.

He gets on base. He hasn't shown much power yet, but people seem to think it'll come for Colt Emerson. was limited with some injuries this past season. But Scott, I mean, this is another one where I've seen people really, really excited about him. We just haven't really seen huge numbers yet in the minors. Yeah, it's one I was a little, I was a little unsure where to rank Cole Emerson because I look at the numbers and I'm like, really? But everybody, everybody seems to say this guy is a stud.

And, you know, you dig deeper into the numbers. It seems like he excels in the areas that are hardest to teach, like pitch selection and contact quality. It's hard to teach that. But where he's trailing is in things you can teach, like pulling the ball in the air. And if he starts doing that more, we'll start to see those power numbers that people are projecting onto Colt Emerson.

And I think the ultimate upside is, this is another comp that gets used a lot. but Corey Seeger, except maybe he'll even run a little bit. So there's a, I think at 19, it's hard to say exactly what Colt Emerson's going to become, but you can see how the foundation is there for him to be

a superstar type shortstop. And worth noting, not much younger than Sebastian Walcott. You know, he was 18 for pretty much the entire season, right? Uh, July. He turned 19 in July. but also missed time this year with an oblique injury early on than a foot injury. So you have to add that on that like aggressive promotions and dealt with injuries and still, you know,

was fairly productive. So that, you know, more impressive than the overall line would make you think, which I think is true of each of the last three guys we've talked about. Again, that's Colt Emerson of the Mariners. Number three shortstop prospect, J.J. Weatherhold of the car. Cardinals, 22 years old. He was a first round pick in this year's draft. Seventh overall, five tool potential, big hit tool.

First taste in the minors went pretty well at A ball. And this is someone as a college bat, Scott, that could move pretty quickly with the Cardinals. Seems like a really safe projection here. He was a celebrated hitter in college. He does well against all pitch types, really patient approach. He's kind of opposite field-minded with this swing, so it's not clear if he's going to actualize the full extent of his power. But physically, there's a lot of potential for power there with J.J. Weatherholt, speed as well.

Potential five category outcome here and good performer in points leagues as well, because of that discipline approach. Only 105 minor league at bats to his name so far, so maybe this will look different a year from now, but right now I think there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about J.J. Weatherholt. Not sure he's going to wind up at shortstop long term,

but even as a second baseman, for fantasy, it'd be even better if you wound up at second base, I guess. Yeah, I don't know if you've done first year player draft rankings that's got, but do you have an idea where Weatherholt might rank? Okay. I've seen top three.

Right. So are we putting, are we putting Roki Sasaki in there? Because he would probably be number one. Yeah, I think Roki Sasaki and Bazana, Charlie Condon would have been in that conversation, but he just fell flat on his face. Right. I mean, it might be Weatherholt ahead of, of Condon at this point. Though, you know, obviously a teeny tiny sample.

It wouldn't surprise me if you, it wouldn't, I want to be upset if you prefer to Condon to Weatherholt. But there's the Rockies of it all as well. Although there's the Cardinals of it all as well, because it's been a pretty rough stretch for them developing hitters too. And then like we talked about on the last podcast, I like Nick Kurtz a lot as well. But I think I'd go Weatherholt over Kurtz. All right.

Into the top two, your number two shortstop prospect, Marcelo Meyer of the Red Sox, one of their big four prospects. We have Meyer and Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell and Kyle Teal. We talked about some of those names already on the previous podcast, but Meyer is 21 years old. He was a first round pick, fourth overall back in 2021. He's kind of had an up and down minor league career,

but he hit well this year at AA, 307 batting average, 850 OPS. Power is supposed to be his best tool. But we haven't really seen much of it yet. Chris, talk to me about Marcelo Meyer, and whether or not we could see him here in 2025. I think there's a very good chance we see him. In 2025, I mean, once you've conquered AA, I've always been of the opinion that once you're at AA, you can always be a good month away from getting called up if things break right. Not in every organization.

And the fact that he hasn't played at AAA and some of the other guys Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell specifically have probably makes it more likely that those guys will get to AAA first. But they all got called up together to AAA. It's just Meyer was not healthy. when he got called up. Am I remembering that correctly? Not sure. Well, Meyers didn't play this past year of AAA. Yeah, but I thought he was part,

I thought he got called up there and just wasn't able to play. Maybe I'm incorrect, but, you know, like you said, Frank, the power is supposed to be one of the strengths, and that hasn't really been there in the miners, especially at AA, ISO's below 200. Both times he's been at AA. It's 120 games.

he was very overwhelmed in 2023 at the end of the season, so don't know how much to hold that against him, but we just haven't seen that power yet. And so, you know, I do question what the ultimate fantasy upside is based on what we've seen in the high miners especially, but, you know, this is one where the scouting reports have kind of been more optimistic than the actual numbers for a while. And I'm never quite sure how to square that circle.

Right. And if power is your strength, being a left-handed hitter at Fenway is a tough place to ply your wares. And it does make me think that some of the batting average struggles we've seen in the minors could be an issue with the suit that he has. I think the batting average struggles were mostly injury related, particularly in 2023. He was playing with the shoulder impingement this past year, a lumbar strain. Those are fairly significant injuries. And so you can understand that pulling down Marcelo Myers' numbers. he hit 307 this year with that lumbar string going on.

So I do think the hit tool is very good and the most predictable part of the path Marcelo Meyer is going to take. I put, I put, I think he profiles something like Beau Bichette or Xander Bogartz, which is more like a mid-tier shortstop in fantasy than an elite guy. So why do I rank Marcelo Meyer as high? high as two, well, it's it's not something I'm totally committed to. I feel like shortstop, it's very deep in prospects clearly, but it's kind of a microcosm of the prospect pool in general right now where it's, there is, there aren't those clear, obvious runaway number one contenders.

I think if you made JJ Weather halt the top shortstop prospect or Cole Emerson or Leo DeVries, or even Jesus Made. I think there's an argument to be made. Those players I just named, I think, have more upside than Marcelo Meyer. But Meyer and the number one guy, I'll go ahead and reveal. Can I go ahead and reveal? No, no, no. Okay, now you can.

Jordan Lawler is the number one guy. Marcelo Meyer and Jordan Lawler, I don't think have as much upside as Jesus Made or Leo DeVry. or all those guys I just mentioned, but they're right on the precipice of being major leaguers. So their likelihood of being abject failures is very low. And while I don't think they're going to be first round types in fantasy, I think there's a good chance their fifth round types in fantasy. So that's why I have them at the top of the list still.

All right. Well, let's talk a little bit more about Jordan Lawler, who is your number one shortstop prospect, 22 years old, first round pick back in 2021, and he was snake-bitten by injury this year, pun intended. He's got big power and speed, some questions about the hit tool. I think he'll need some seasoning to start the year, Chris, but I don't know that the debacks are married to Geraldo Pertomo

as they're starting shortstop. So when Loller's ready, he could get the call. Yeah, I mean, look, Perdomo is fine. he's kind of the most fine player in baseball he just like is so unexciting but he's not like a huge hole in your lineup and they've been content i think over the last year and a half to just let him hold it down until luller is ready it's a little frustrating and i feel like there might be a little bit of fatigue with luller because we talked about him a lot in the first half of twenty twenty three he he you know got to double a as a 20 year old they called him up as a 20 year old. And he, did he get hurt at the majors or did he get sent down?

He's dealt with a bunch of injuries over the past couple years. He's been a professional since 2021 and has only played about 210 games total. So like it's been not just this year. He had a hand injury

in 2023. There was something right after he got called up. Yeah, he had a hand injury in September of 2020. Yeah. And then it was like hamstring and another hand injury. last year, whatever it was.

Yeah, thumb surgery this past year. He's most of the year. Barely played over the past year and a half. And so part of the problem is like, that's a really important year and a half in the development cycle of a young hitter. I mean, we're talking about a guy who was just 20 at this peak or maybe had just turned 21 when he got called up,

has barely played at AAA. And so we kind of don't know what Jordan Lawler looks like right now. He played 12 games of AAA this year and was really good, but who knows? So it for a guy who has a good shot to be, if not up on opening day, certainly in the first half of the first half, some might call that the first quarter. It feels like there's a lot of uncertain here. But it's also potentially an impact fantasy bat in like a jazz chiseled.

Eway? Well, the comp I'm making is Marcus Simeon. Sure. Okay. I think Jordan Lawler is, he excels it getting on base. We'll work the count and everything like that. He's going to run a lot, steal a lot of bases. He doesn't have a lot of natural power, but he's good at elevating to his pole side and

maximizing his power that way, which sounds a lot like Marcus Simeon. Of course, it also sounds a lot like Anthony Volpe. So I'm a little concerned. Lawler ends up going the Volpey route, but they're called prospects for a reason. There's no one that's totally foolproof. And if that's the downside case for Lawler, look, Anthony Volpe is still getting drafted.

It's not like he's useless in fantasy. And then, of course, the upside case of Marcus Simeon is pretty darn exciting. All right, well, there you have it. top 20 shortstop prospects. Next week we'll move into the outfield and then pitchers after that. But we are going to wrap there for Scott.

Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.