Fantasy Baseball Today - 2026 ATC Projections with Ariel Cohen! (1/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 30, 2026

Welcome back to the show, Ariel Cohen! What are ATC projections (3:33)? ... What are some things that projections struggle with (9:30)? ... Let's talk undervalued players in ATC vs. ADP and first up, Hunter Goodman (18:21). ... Yandy Diaz and Alec Burleson should both provide solid batting averages (20:05). ... Gleyber Torres is the biggest value right now (23:50). ... Are we targeting Ezequiel Tovar and Teoscar Hernandez (26:46)? ... Do we believe in these pitchers (30:19)? ... These are the ATC All Stars (34:43)! ... News (40:42): Blake Snell is behind already. ... Next up, overvalued players with Jackson Holliday (47:30). ... Geraldo Perdomo is fascinating (49:40). ... Roman Anthony could go nuclear (52:33). ... Will the change of scenery help Luis Robert (55:40)? ... What about Oneil Cruz and Noelvi Marte (58:27)? ... We wrap up with Yamamoto, Hunter Brown, Kyle Bradish and Nolan McLean (1:01:45). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy Kokomo Friday and welcome into fantasy baseball today. On January 30th, I am Frank Stamphill, and today on the show, we are talking 2026 projections. And to do that, I brought back my good buddy, friend of the program, Ariel Cohen. What's going on, Ariel? Hey, I'm doing great. Thank goodness you have Kokomo Friday because we need all the sun we can get here in frigid cold New York. Wow.

Oh, my goodness. I mean, and normally it's, we kind of. to limit our weather talk I guess to the northeast, but it's really been like, you know, the whole country is going through this cold front and places that don't ever get snow or dealing with snow and things like that. So it is a crazy time. We've lived through the snowstorm of the century. So it's been crazy. Stay warm, everyone out there. Nothing screams, you know, fantasy baseball and spring training like two feet of snow. But here we are. We are powering through it together. Before we get into everything today, just want to remind everyone, Ariel Cohen,

is the creator of the ATC projections, which you can find on fan graphs. Honestly, I should have talked to you about this beforehand. Are they still on Sportsline? I should probably know that. Possibly. They're not on there currently, but they are on rotobolar, roto-wire,

Yahoo Sports, all over the place. You can just check them out. All right, and he is the host of the Beat the Shift podcast as well. Make sure to give them a follow on X at ATC and Y. Let's give everybody a little lesson in projections before we get down to the nitty-gritty talk about specific players. Ariel, what are ATC projections? Well, ATC is called the average total cost projections.

It's a projections aggregator. I take a bunch of other projections and some path to historical history for what players have done. And we take the best and the brightest of all of them. There might be a projection system that does much better in homers. And there might be a projection system that does better in pitcher strikeouts. and I'll weight them differently according to the strength and how good they are in each projection for each statistic. And we jumble them all together. And it gives a really great view.

One of the things when you're looking at any projection, you always ask, do they know what they're talking about? Who knows? Well, I've got the wisdom of craft projections. I've got all the smart projections in there. And that cuts down your parameter risk. So we have a better idea of what really is going to happen. And what is crazy about these projections for anyone who check. out our YouTube-only episode we did yesterday,

a draft software tutorial with Tanner Bell who kind of walked us through some of his draft tools and how to aggregate projections and things like that. Like Ariel just said, it's not just, all right, taking all these projections and combining them. It's finding what projections are the best at certain things and then taking that and waiting it more than other things. So it really is an amazing thing that you do here

with these projections, Ariel. And just to remind people, these are, Median outcomes, correct? We're talking 50th percentile expectations whenever we're talking about projections, correct? Yeah, technically they're averages or they're averages of median outcomes, but yeah, we're talking to the middle,

betting average, best guess of what you can pick for a player. Yes, and that's why this is an objective way of looking at things in fantasy baseball. And I understand if Scott were here, he would say, well, you know, a projection is just a number, and a player can have this much more upside and this much more downside. And of course, like there are,

ranges of outcomes, but the projection that has spit out is just, again, it's bad. It's the median projection. It's a 50th percentile outcome. Of course, there are players that can always outperform their projection or underperform. And, yeah, I mean, look, someone like Aaron Judge, we're not going to project him for, you know, 60 home runs. But, I mean, the past couple of years, he's been, you know, right there between 50 and 60 home runs. So he could very easily get there, but, you know, play it safe and probably project him around like 45 to 50, something. like that. We already spoke about where people can find ATC projections. How should we use them for fantasy, Ariel? Because I think there are many different ways to talk about this. So how would you use

them and why would you use projections in fantasy baseball? Well, projections are definitely the best guess. I mean, the human eye is awesome, but not as good as learning about how players performed in the aggregate. I mean, if you really love a player and you think he's great, you might be right 40% of the time, but you'll be wrong 60% of the time. Projections do a better job in the long run, right? You can overhype players, but projections get it right. Again, it's long-term betting average. The best way to use projections is to take the ATC rankings or take the projections

and line them up with the ADP. Where are people taking players in the market, right? If you have to pay for a player, are they going in the seventh round? But ATC says it's fifth round value. then you know you've got a good deal. And one thing about ATC, because of the way that it aggregates, it has a fantastic hit rate. The percentage of the time that ATC says to buy and it's right,

and the percentage of the time that ATC says don't buy and it's right, is higher than any single projection system. So if you're using it in the way that I described as to buy or not, that really is the way to do it. And, you know, one thing about ATC, it's never going to project some outside projection. It will never say Aaron Judge for 60 homers. It'll say something smooth into the middle.

But again, you're not using it to get the upside. You're using it to get a buy signal. Should I buy the player or not? If he happens to be, oh, my God, and has a great season, well, you gain all the upside, but you bought them. Yes, yes. So there are many different ways to actually use projections to create a ranking system or to put them in a draft software.

I will quickly pull up on the screen, the Fangraph's website, and I will try to talk through this for people listening on audio as well, just to give people a little example of, you know, how I like to kind of use projections myself. And again, it's, I'm not saying you just have to be beholden to projections, I like to look at them. Obviously, I have my own rankings

that you could find on the website, and I'm sure they're very different than projections, but I like to use projections to kind of keep myself in check and almost like a guess in check type system here to exactly that, just like keep myself in check and make sure I'm not, you know, way out on a limb on certain players. So here we are on the Fangraphs homepage.

If you hover over the fantasy tab here and go to the auction calculator, scroll down. This is for if you play in a roto or a categories league, you can put in the categories that you play in, the positions that you play in, so on and so forth. If you play in a Head-Tead Points League, you could do that as well. And then if you scroll down a little bit here,

you'll see projection. You can go down to ATC or whichever projection system you want to use, the bat, the bat X from Derek Cardi. but we click on ATC, 12 team league, and you just hit generate projections there, and then it will spit out these auction values. And again, you can compare it to ADP,

and I think that's just a kind of quick, easy way to line things up and look at projections versus ADP. And that's a lot of what we're going to talk about later, is like, who are the outlier players so far based on early ADP, which names do projections like more or maybe less than the drafting public right now? So before we get to that, I just want to talk a little bit more about, you know, the ins and outs of projections.

Ariel, what are some of the things that you have noticed that projections struggle with the most? Well, any model always has the premise that what happened in the past is going to happen in the future. And if you know what happened in the past and there's a regular occurrence, well, great, it becomes predictable. But what if what happened in the past isn't a good predictor because something changed? For example, a player was injured last year. That's why he was not as good. Or maybe he has a new swing he's trying out this year in the spring. Or maybe a pitcher is throwing a different pitch mix than he did last year.

Projections won't know about that, right? Projections know what he would do if he threw the same pitch mix, if the batter had the same swing as last year. Or actually more important even, if a player is going to come into playing time, wait a minute, he's now going to be the starter. or you know what, he's only going to be a platoon bat. Projections may not get that right because that's something the human eye can see better.

So if you have something that is not describable in projections, of blind spot, if you will, then I would look at the human eye and adjust projections to account for that. Yeah, I think that's a really, really good call. And just there are so many nuances in baseball and just training methods and things that we learn. It's, you know, a tweak to a pitch mix

or adding a pitch or adding a pitch or adding velocity or changing a batting stance, whatever it might be, changing scenery, right? Like going from one team to another, things like that. I did want to ask you about exactly that. Is the 2025 data enough for A's hitters, right?

They played their home games at Sutter Health Park last year, which was the second best offensive park factor last season behind only Colorado. Now, I know projections typically look at things in three-year windows, like the past three years before this, but we only have one year of data for Sutter Health Park. So how do projections factor in something like that? Maybe they don't.

But do you know if they do. Well, what projections usually do is they project everybody in what's called neutral context. They take whatever stadium that you've played in, and then they put factors in to say, okay, what if it was in exactly neutral context? And then they go to the following year and say, okay, he's now going to play in this park, and this park, and then you apply the park factors. If you're traded from a different team, for example, in the off season, well, you have your park factors where you were in 2025.

You would put it to context neutral, and then you would put, the projections would put the next context for your next team. So projections do that very well. A question is, are the park factors good enough from just one season of data? The answer is not 100% solid, but better than nothing. So it's not a perfect mix. If you do have some projections systems like Derek Cardi that actually looks at the science of stadiums,

even more so than just applying a straight factor, those are better. And I would trust Derek Cardi's view of the stadium a little bit more because he knows more of the science and that gets incorporated faster than just the raw power factors. And perhaps the biggest question that we have for projections, what would Ariel Cohen's projection be in a 3.5 rated pickleball tournament? Oh, I would do pretty well.

Oh, yeah? Yeah, I'm closer to a 4-0. I play in a league that's sort of 3.5 to 4-0, and I'm ahead in the player of the year. I've got, I think, five more points than everybody else. It's about 20% more than everybody. So, yeah, in a pure 3.5, I'd be right at the top. I would be your Aaron Judge Otani.

Take me 1-1-1-2. Wow. Wow. So you're not playing against like Mary Beth and Annabelle anymore. You've graduated from that. No, that's a joke that Ian Con did that he, you know, the very, the very first time I ever played, I didn't know anything. And I'm like, I let's just do a beginner, a beginner open play. And it was me and three 70 year old women. And it wasn't much to just, you know, bang and crush them. And they're like, maybe you should be in the intermediate group. So Ian Con made fun of me about that. That is a true story, but no, I'm playing against better players. Oh, man, we got to meet back up and we got to play again.

Actually, Ariel put me on pickleball a while back a couple years ago, and it's a lot of fun. I've been playing a lot as well. I know some people like to bash pickleball and stuff, but you know what I would say? Try it. Try it first before you bash pickleball because I think it's a lot of fun. I think it's a great workout as well. Like, yeah, we both have, you know, tennis backgrounds. Like, I played in high school and stuff.

But you know what? A little bit older, Ariel, shoulders doesn't actually. act the same as it used to be. So it's a little bit harder for me to get out on the tennis court. So you know what? We pick up, pick a ball, and we have a little fun. Before we hit our first break, just want to remind everyone that's starting next week, we have five podcasts per week.

Once again, we will be live on YouTube Sunday through Wednesday evenings. And then we will record a mailbag on Thursday. So you will have an audio podcast in your feed every Monday through Friday for the month of February and beyond, I guess. I mean, March, we're probably going to have six podcasts per week. This is it. From February on, you're getting at least five podcasts per week until the end of the baseball season.

And next week is Strategy Week, which should be very interesting. We'll have one episode just for Roto. We'll have one episode for Head to Head Leagues. We'll talk points. We'll talk categories. We'll have an auction strategy episode. And I actually just confirmed that NFBC Hall of Famer, newly inducted NFBC Hall of Famer,

Mike Mager, who I believe is the back-to-back auction overall champion will be joining us on that episode next week. So look, nobody better to learn auction strategy from than the guy that has won the overall championship two years in a row. So he will be on the podcast, and I met him a few times, but we were talking out in the Arizona Fall League,

and he's a great dude. So happy to have him on, and we will have that next week. If you are watching live, make sure to hit that like button, and subscribe. If you haven't already, things are ramping up. You're going to want to be here for all the content that we have coming your way.

Let's do it. 40K by opening day. Let's make that happen. We'll take a quick break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are here with Ariel Cohen talking ATC projections for 2026. Let's get into some specific players

who are underrated according to ATC projections early on in the process here. I know the ADP that I'm going to reference NFBC. There's not really much else going on right now. Those are where all the early drafts are taking place. but as we get more data, CBS drafts, ESPN drafts, Yahoo drafts, we'll reference Fantasy Pros ADP, which kind of creates a culmination of all the ADPs in the industry. Let's start with Hunter Goodman, who is the second projected catcher by ATC.

He is the fifth catcher in ADP in January so far, and it does feel like he's flying under the radar a little bit, and I understand there's a lot of excitement about Ben Rice and William Contreras has done it for many years. He was playing through injury last year. But I kind of feel like Hunter Goodman has been flying under the radar a little bit. What do you see with Hunter Goodman this year, Ariel? Yeah, totally. I just drafted him in an NFBC draft Champions League, so I agree with it. He's on the Rockies. I mean, I love offensive players who are on the Rockies. And Hunter Goodman, what I like about him is he's going to get playing time. One, he's not catching. He's going to be

deaching a ton. He might even also play a couple of games in the outfield. He could do better in the batting average category, who was slightly lucky last year. He had a 331 Babbip. But even if he regresses from last year, we returned to $24 season, still plenty good. I think the floor is really high for Hunter Goodman. So I'm comfortable drafting him as my number one catcher, set it and forget it, and he's going to put in a ton of counting stats. And the catcher position feels like it's really good this year.

I mean, we spoke about this the other day, Scott Chris and myself. and there are like 17 names that feel like they could all be ranked as top 12 catchers this year, but there's just more hype around some of the younger guys. So someone like Hunter Goodman, not that he's old, but you know, he's been around, I guess, for a couple of years. People, you know, want the new shiny toy. They want, you know, Ben Rice who's going to hit 40 plus home runs. But you know what?

Hunter Goodman, he just came pretty close to that last year. So when I dug in, I didn't really see anything that scared me off of Hunter Goodman. So I'm totally fine where he's going right now in drafts as well. let's move over to first base. We are going position by position here. Yandy Diaz and Alec Berluson. Diaz is the first basement 11 by ATC. He's 14th in ADP.

Alec Berluson is the 15th first baseman by ATC. He's 18th in ADP. And I think, correct me if I'm wrong, Ariel. For both of these guys, projections like batting average. And both of them, while they're not going to hit 330, they both seem like they will be positive contributors in that category. So maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like projections maybe weight batting average a little bit more than some of the other categories. And that's why these two kind of stand out.

Yeah, I think it's more that people don't, they disregard batting average. I mean, Luis Arias hits 300 every year and everyone's like, nah, the heck with him. I mean, it's a category. And when you're hitting that much over everybody else, it matters. Yandy Diaz, the past couple of years, he's been at 300 every single. year, that matters quite a bit in a roto league. Yandy Diaz, I like better than Alec Berlson. You'll get more average with him.

Burleson, you'll get more power. The concern I have about Yandy Diaz is that he is going to a different park. He played in Starringbrenner Field. He goes back to the drop. So he's going to lose some homers. But that's fine. Even with the drop in homers, that an ATC is still projecting him at about 20, he's still a massive value.

If you look at ATC projections to ADD. So really love it. And he's Uber consistent. Just every year he gives you something. If you need a first baseman and you want to lock up some batting average, which is hard to get later in the draft. Andy Diaz can't go wrong. And Alec Burleson is similar to him, not as good, just a couple ticks lower.

And I think something you'll see with projections too, a lot of times they're not the flashy players. They're not the sexy picks. But they are just the ones that they profit. You know, it's, you might buy them in an auction for $10 and they'll give you $12 to $15. And it's just like the more times you do that throughout a draft or an auction, you get this, you know, three to five dollar profit over and over and over. I mean, that's how you can win leagues.

So they're not sexy picks, but I think they are both solid players. You touched on something I did want to follow up on with the NDiaz. Last year he played in Steinbrenner Field and he hit a career high 25 home runs. He is somebody who hits the ball to the opposite field and they had that short porch, same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. Do projections account for him? his home run output last year in a different setting and now coming back to the Trump. Yeah, they do.

Again, the park factors are not going to be as solid for Starrymrenner Field because they're not really a mate. They've only been one year worth of a Major League field. So you're going to get a little bit not as great in adjustment. But yes, projections do account for that. Personally, I look at projections and I don't just say ATC's gospel. When I saw the 20 homers by Diaz, I actually will take the low end of that. I'm closer to I think he's going to produce something like 50s.

15, 16. But again, it's still a value. And that's why, you know, you don't just take projections to the gospel, you look and you make what your thoughts are validated or not validated. This one is validated on the high side, but I still like Andy Diaz either way. Yeah, and I like Alec Berlinson quite a bit. I wound up with him on a few teams as my corner infield already some slow drafts that I've done. He's going to be the everyday first baseman for the Cardinals this year. And I've made this comp before. He feels a lot like Josh Naler. Not the Josh Niller that stole 30 bases last year, but the Josh, Josh Nailer from before that, you know, two 70 hitting 20-ish home runs, good counting stats,

five to 10 steals, just solid contributor across the board. So I like where Burleson is going in drafts. It's usually in that 150 to 175 range as a corner infielder or even, you know, like a third or fourth outfielder in drafts. Let's talk about Glaber Torres actually the thumbnail of this video, Glaber Torres, because he is the biggest standout. the sixth projected second baseman by ATC. He is the 18th second baseman off the board right now.

According to ADP, if you look at the projection, it doesn't really seem like anything crazy either. 257 batting average, 19 homers, 83 runs, 76 RBI, 5 steals. That seems doable to me, Ariel. The plate discipline is good for Glaber Torres. I know some people might point to the second half where he struggled. He was also playing through a sports hernia that he had, surgery for after the season. So I think this projection is very attainable for Glaver Torres.

Yeah. And my prediction is that following this show, his price will rise significantly when they hear that he's the number one projected bargain by ATC. I'm looking at the projection and I, you know, I try to poke a hole. You think he's not good for 18 homers? Sure he is. You think he's not good for six stolen bases? They're about, 257 average. Yeah, I don't see anything wrong. And the big thing about Torres that people forget, the runs and RBIs really matter. If you're playing in a Roto League, that's 40% of your offensive production. And he's super solid every year, year and year out. He had 79 runs and 74 RBIs last year.

Again, you're not going to get super sexy homers and stolen bases. You're getting them for a base of power speed, but the run production. But it's about the overall value. And in a Roto league, he's fantastic. he's only going for $4 auction equivalent. He's going into 17th round. He's worth like eight rounds higher than that. Glaver Torres is a slam dunk,

but of course following this show, his price will rise. I can bet on that one. You know what I think is keeping his draft cost down is that a lot of people want stolen bases from their middle infielder, and you're just not going to get many of those from Glaver Torres. But if you plan it out correctly,

and you get a bunch of stolen bases from your outfield or your other middle infield at your second basement, your shortstop, you draft labor as your middle infielder. You are getting really everything else. Batting average that doesn't hurt you. Good home runs for a middle infielder. And then the counting stats are going to be very solid as well. So again, another one, not a sexy pick.

And I will point out, for those who play in head to head points leagues, I know you still play in head head points tout wars, Ariel, where you routinely make the playoffs and you, do very well in that league. Why won last year? Hey, look at this guy, you know? You should be you should be giving us some head to head points pointers here. Glaver Torres last year, 2.8 fantasy points per game. That was tied for 7th at the position. So he walks a bunch, he gets on base. He's going to hit high in that lineup. I think rock solid regardless of format, roto and head to head points. Let's talk about Ezekiel Tovar, who is a slight value right

now by ATC. He is the 15th shortstop in projections. He's the 18th in 80p. He's usually just solid when he's been healthy. Last year he dealt with some injuries. I do think he's undraftable in head-to-pointe league because the plate discipline is so bad. But this is a player who's actually kind of similar to Glaber Torres. You know, he's going to hit around 20 home runs. Batting average doesn't kill you.

And his defense is so good. He's going to be in the lineup every day for the Rockies. Yeah, Torres is better in the points league than he is in Roto. The opposite is true for Tovar. You're right. He hardly walks. hardly gets on base, but he'll get a ton of at-bats. He's healthy this year.

You're getting a discount because he was injured, but he is the same player. He's got that power speed blend, 20 homers, 10 steals, that kind of thing, an average, which is totally usable, and he's going to bat towards the top of lineup with the Rockies. He should score north of 75 runs. Again, it's just a broad base of stats that you're getting so far later in the draft than he's really worth. And again, injury comeback players, these are the source. is you don't want to buy a player who just had a great season.

You want to buy a player who had a down season that you can explain why he had the down season. Oh, wow, he should have been on him. He's a player that you go the first two weeks of the season and you're like, why wasn't I on that guy? Of course he was going to bounce back. Duh. So that's what I think you're going to get with Tovar. And the Rocky's going to play him every day because they don't got anybody else to play. Let's move into the outfielders here.

And Cody Bellinger, he is the 13th projected outfielder by ATC. He's 18th in ADP. He just feels like a solid B, B plus across the board. Obviously, Yankee Stadium is perfect for his swing. I know that his ADP was down a little bit for most of the offseason because he was a free agent. But now that he's back in Yankee Stadium, I think it's probably going to rise from here. I don't know if it's going to get to the point where it should. So I think Cody Bellinger around pick 80 right now feels like a good value.

I wanted to focus a little bit more on Teoska Hernandez. 20th projected outfielder by ATC, 27th outfielder by ADP, definitely declined from 2024, had the hamstring injury last year, and he's getting older. He's 33 years old. He swings and misses quite a bit.

Ariel, this feels like a skill set that might not age well. How much confidence do you have in someone like Teoscar Hernandez bouncing back a little bit, or do you just expect maybe a similar season from last year? Like maybe that's enough where he's going in drafts?

Yeah, small, bounce back in the batting average. I think the stolen bases are shot. What worries me is the playing time. I can see a world where he really goes sub 500 at bats, either because injury or the Dodgers, quote, injured player that they're just trying to arrest players, but they call it an injury. They've been known to do that in the past. And when you lose playing time and you're not playing, that really hurts you. I would have hoped he would have been a little bit cheaper. He's going a little bit higher than I expected. ATC likes him as a boring old vet, as ATC usually likes. But, but But the price is not cheap enough.

I remember last year when George Springer was available for really cheap, ATC was all over, and I had Springer in almost every single league. I don't have that feeling on T. Oscar. I'm sure I'll own him here and there if the price dips in one draft or so, but he's not somebody that screams to me. As you're right, he might age a little bit. And, again, it's the playing time that worries me more that the daughter is going to purposely do. Five starting pitchers that are undervalued by ATC right now.

Nathan Avaldi, Sonny Gray, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Castillo, Matthew Boyd. Again, a lot of these guys are veterans. Maybe you're not as excited to draft them, but they are guys that, you know, could maybe provide a little bit of profit here. Is there anyone that stands out from that group that you either agree with ATC on or disagree with? Avaldi, Gray, Rasperson, Castillo, Boyd. I think Yivaldi is the one that I have the most questions on.

I'm in a DC and I'm in the 10th round. And do I take him just so risky? I can't make up my mind to take him. I couldn't push the trigger. He was at the top of my cue for like the last two rounds. I can't push the trigger because he didn't end the season healthy. I don't like taking players who don't end the season healthy. I'd rather take a guy like Spencer Strider who ended the season healthy wasn't as good,

but maybe he can come back like that. As to the people you mentioned, you know, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo really stand out to me as reliable. reasonable, decent strikeout rates, decent ratios, workhorses. So I like them for the workhorse attitudes there. Those are my guys. Drew Rasmussen has the highest upside of all of them. I mean, he's been a sub-3-ERA pitcher each of the last five years,

which is absolutely fantastic. So I would say Rasmussen for upside and Gray and Castillo for the bankability. So for Nathan Avaldi, he was amazing last year. Obviously, the ratio is 173 ERA. I don't think anyone's expecting anything close to that. But only through 130 innings, he dealt with a shoulder injury. He had surgery after the season, I believe also for a sports hernia. ATC has Avaldi projected for 160 innings, you know?

Oh, no, no, I don't believe that. It seems too high. Now, in the next generation of ATC, which will hit over the weekend, he's down to 155. I actually don't still believe that also. He is lower than some of the other fan graft projections in terms of innings, but me as a fantasy player, I cannot believe that. And more importantly, I can't draft to that. I'm going to draft him to about 130 innings,

and that's about it for me. Yeah, there is something with Sunny Gray. And again, this is, this goes back to what we were saying about, just kind of your eye and knowing situations and things like that. So going from the Cardinals to Boston, you know, he spent a season and a half in a big market before with the Yankees, and obviously that did not go well. I just wonder about him going back to a big market situation with the Boston Red Sox

and perhaps struggling on top of that. You know, the fastball velocity has been declining the past couple of years, and he has given up a lot more home runs as a result of that. So just two things that pop into my mind as maybe reasons to stay away from Sunny Gray that I'm not so sure projections are factoring in, you know? So as far as the drop in velocity, he only down one tick from about five years ago. He's not a very fast pitcher anyways. I mean, he went down from 93 to 92 miles an hour.

It's not like going from 98 to 96. I think that the changes aren't there. And, you know, he's a pitcher. He's a real guy who knows how to work through things. As far as the Boston thing, did he go to the Yankees mid-year? Was that a mid-year trade? It was a, I believe it was a mid-year. No, no, no.

I think he got traded in the off-season, spent a four. full year and then maybe he got traded. No, no, no, I'm wrong about that. It was a mid-season trade and then he spent the entire 2018 season with the Yankees weren't. That's when he was awful. The full season with the Yankees, yeah. Yeah, I'm going to say that we're going to chalk that up to something going on there and the mid-year didn't work for him.

But you have a whole off-season with him. He's figured out. I mean, he's thrown 200 strikeouts in each of the last two years and he's already gone through that tick down in fastball and he still threw 200 strikeouts. I'm not satisfied that he's a sub-35 ratio guy anymore. I think a 3-8 that ATC projects is far more reasonable, maybe a tad up. But he got to bank on the innings and the strike. I know he's getting older, but he's 36.

He's not 39. I think he's a workhorse. And again, I'm drafting him as like an FP3 or 4 if you can. I did an auction the other day, and he's my SP4. At SP4, I'll take him. SP3 value. Nothing higher than that, though. Yeah.

And lastly, we have the ATC All-Stars. Ariel, every year I feel like these five are on the list of undervalue players by ATC. We have Alec Bohm, Carlos Correa, Taylor Ward, Ian Hap, Brian Reynolds. Again, not sexy picks by any means. But they are ones that, correct me if I'm wrong, it feels like they are standouts every season according to projections. Correa, I don't know so much about every year, but the others, yeah, you remember correctly. They're on every year, and I grab him every year.

I mean, to me, Alec Bowman is the standout. Third base is a weak position. He produces a 275-type batting average. Last year, he was down to about 60 RBIs, but he had almost 100 RBIs each of the two seasons prior to that. Phillies have a good lineup. Question, is he going to lose any playing time? Well, Boba Shed is not there.

Will anybody take his playing time? I don't know. But I'm willing to gamble at a 18th, 19th round ADP. I mean, here's what I see about. at Alkbone. He's, he turned in a $15 season. Then the next year he goes in draft for eight. He turns into a $20 season.

Then he goes for 12. He turns another $20 season. He goes for $12. And now he's going for $2 to $3 after not a great $7 season. It's a slam dunk for me over there. Brian Reynolds, though, he's off my list for this year. I think I see the decline. I don't see him getting back to where he was before.

And I do worry about a little bit of the playing time. Again, he's also not dirt cheap. If he was going 19th, 20th round, sure, I'd be all over him. But he's going 14th round. So you do have to spend a nice pick on him. Don't love the upside on Reynolds at all. And I don't know if I can really bank on the value. So I'm not for the ATC projections this year on Reynolds.

I'm off him. But the others that you mentioned are bank all day and they're on every single year for a reason. Yeah. And the strikeout was up last year for Brian Reynolds, which usually as a player is aging, not that he's old, you know, he's 31 years old, but it could be a sign of decline here for Reynolds

with that strikeout rate being up. I will point out his expected stats, according to stat cast, his average exit velocity was actually a career high, his barrel rate. A lot of that stuff was basically in line with the rest of his career, so perhaps there was a little bit of bad luck involved there

with Brian Reynolds. I think I'm a little bit more likely to buy back in on him. I think he's going right around pick 200, something like that. And as your, you know, fourth outfielder, fifth outfielder, and a five outfielder league, whereas, you know, years past, he's like, you know, your second outfielder.

I would be all right, I think buying the dip here on Brian Reynolds this year. Yeah, I'm more likely to take him in like a 12 to 12th, 10 to 12 team league where he's like the bench player. And if I don't like my cut him, I don't want to count on him as my fourth outfielder in a 15 team league. That's just my game theory strategy for him. Again, if he dips any lower than 200, if he goes down to 220s, then I'd be giving it a shot.

Taylor Ward, I feel like. Like this is one guy you bring up every year, R.L. Yeah. Always all over Taylor Ward goes out, has the big home run season last year. Trade it over to the Orioles. Does that matter at all to you? I mean, do you like him in Baltimore? Actually playing with one of your guys, Pete Alonzo.

I mean, well, thanks for bringing that up, by the way, that he's playing with Pete Alonzo in Baltimore. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Yeah, but the Angels have a pitcher's park. So it's not a downgrade for Taylor Ward to go to Bulls. Baltimore and probably a better lineup as well. Yeah, his price goes down after he gets a 36 homer season. Maybe people are seeing the 228 batting average, but he had a 257 babb.

His strikeout rate is not great, so you're never going to get the 270s, but 240 with 30 homers. I mean, that gets you a bargain here. He's on my list every year because he's just a producer of stats. He had 103 RBIs last year. I mean, if you're getting somebody. all the way in the 13th, 12th, 13th round, how can you not bank on 100 RBI, 35 homer type production? Yeah, he is someone that I have been targeting in the middle rounds

if I need a power boost. I think, you know, getting 30 home runs out of him, solid counting stats, batting average won't be great, as you pointed out, but I just think, you know, rock solid power producer there in the middle rounds of drafts is Taylor Ward. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll quickly hit on some news and notes

and then get into some of the players who are overvalued based on projections right now. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy at Baseball. Today we'll quickly run through the news and notes. And Ariel, here we go again. Blake Snell has ramped up slowly this winter in an effort to recover from his postseason workload.

I don't know if the Dodgers, Blake Snell, everybody else realizes this, but the playoffs ended like three months ago. So why is this still a thing? I just don't understand. It is not a guarantee that Blake Snell will be ready for opening day. His ADP in January is 83 as the 21st starting pitcher off the board. He was already on my bus 1.0, Ariel, I guarantee the ADP will drop from here.

I really don't want anything to do with Blake Snow. Yeah, you have to be able to start a season healthy for me to want you at that very high prices. It's only the fifth round. For that type of production where you're counting on him is probably your SP1, I want somebody who's healthy. Love the ratios, love the stats. But again, you got to guarantee me 170 innings for your top ace,

not the 135 that ATC has projected. Yeah, and that is something that has been a consistent issue for Blake's now throughout his career, just missing time. We know when he's been healthy. The two years he's thrown 180 plus innings, he's won the Cy Young both of those years.

But the fact that he's already behind, I'm taking the under, obviously, on 180 innings. And we talk about this a lot with Dodgers pitchers, is they have this luxury. You know, they went out and signed, I'm sorry, Edwin Diaz, and they brought in Kyle Tucker. And, you know, they have a six-man rotation. So anything that pops up,

they can be really cautious with their players because really they need them healthy in August and September and going into the playoffs. And maybe not so much in April. So I think they're going to kind of slow play things here with Blake Snell. The Rockies acquired Edward Julian and pitcher Pearson Old. from the twins in exchange for 24-year-old pitcher, Jace Kaminska and cash considerations.

Julianne turns 27 in April. He came up in 2023. He looked really good that year, has been pretty dreadful since. And Ariel, I think we actually saw him probably three or four years ago in the Arizona Fall League, and he looked really good out there,

and obviously his first season, but hasn't done much since. I am intrigued in deep, Leagues, you know, draft and hold formats, NL only leagues. I think Julian could maybe be a strong side platoon player for the Rockies this season. Any deep league interest in Edward Julian.

Yeah, it's a lottery ticket for a ton of power late. If you're in a monol league, that's interesting. If you're in a very deep league, to take him as a possible bench play, sure, ATC projections don't have his updated playing time yet. He's probably going to double in playing time. So disregard what you see

for now and just wait until you see his going there. Yeah, I mean, the Rockies are bringing in a guy that, you know, has upside might be good in the thin air. So we'll see. If he's going to get playing time and you need a power bat, yeah, he's a consideration for a dart. Yeah. And I know a lot of people have made this joke on Twitter the past couple of days, but you have to swing the bat for things to happen in course field. Edward Julian, while he has a great eye, he's also very passive.

So he walks a lot, he strikes out a lot. You know, I'm not so sure that course field will help. things, but, you know, maybe Babbip and, you know, batting average could be a little bit boosted there playing his home games in course field. The Rockies were busy. They also acquired 25-year-old first base prospect, T-J Rumfield from the Yankees in exchange for reliever, Anheel-C-C-V-V-E-Y. And that is a tough name to say there, but it's spelled C-H-I-V-I-L-I. I don't think either will really matter for fantasy. Maybe Rumfield turns into a short-side platoon for the Rockies here. Speaking of the Yankees, we do have some updates on their players.

Aaron Judge's right elbow is doing really well as he ramps up his throwing ahead of the World Baseball Classic. Remember that Judge dealt with the strained right elbow flexor last season, and I think he missed the minimum of time. And it took him a little bit to get going against once he returned, but obviously he was great in September and great in the postseason. So assuming we don't hear anything else about the elbow, I think we're in the clear, hopefully there on Aaron Judge. Both Garrett Cole and Carlos Rodan have been progressing smoothly in their offseason rehab programs.

Cole is coming back from Tommy John surgery with an internal brace. Rodon is returning from a cleanup procedure on his elbow to address a bone spur. Tommy Edmund will have a delayed start to spring training as he rehabs from ankle surgery and it's possible he won't be ready for opening day. Yet another example of the Dodgers taking things slowly if they want to do exactly that. And the last item here, not really an item, I guess it's a question. Ariel, big Mets fan. What do you think of the offseason?

Well, we were heartbroken a couple of months ago. And I remember I was sitting at Islander game with my wife and one of my sons. And I saw the trade happen with Nemo. And it's my wife's favorite player. I didn't have a heart to tell her. And so we're walking out of this stadium. And somebody is like, oh, Nemo, somebody else is Nemo. And my wife was like, oh, Nimmo's here.

Where's Nimmo? Yeah, honey. He's no longer a match. Oh, geez. Yeah. I don't know. Actually, I don't know what's worse, Ariel. The fact that he traded Nimmo or the fact that you didn't tell your wife right away.

Well, I was going to tell her, but, you know, the island just won a fantastic game. We were doing great and we're going to go out to dinner. And I want to tell her right before all that, you know, it doesn't pay. Yeah. But, no, we're heartbroken. Diaz de Mets should have signed that just dumb. They should have given them the extra year. but I like what they're doing.

I'm not, I don't want to get my hopes up, but I do like what they're doing in general. Bichette is fantastic player. Williams is a fine ad. I think Luis Robert will be, if he stays healthy, will be a nice ad and fits into what the Mets are doing with stealing.

Semen, love it. And Polanco is so undervalued. He had a great season this past year. Can he handle first base? I'm not sure. But the Mets are trying out Vientos at first. Let's see what the Mets do at left field. They trust Carson Benj,

Maybe they're giving reps to Brett Beatty potentially. I don't know, I'm a little bit murky on that. But yeah, it's something to watch. I'll be sad for the new guys, for the old guys to come. But, hey, I'll find some new fans to new players to root for. Yeah, it is a completely new team. And I know for most of the offseason, a lot of Mets fans, we're crushing David Stearns.

And he made some tough decisions, man. He got rid of fan favorites and things like that. But if we're being honest, they never won anything with those fan favorites, right? So let's change it up and see what they can do. and we will find out exactly that in just a couple months. Let's get into players who are overvalued according to ATC projections for this season. And first up, we have Jackson Holiday,

who is projected to be the 16th second baseman by ATC. He is currently the sixth second baseman in ADP. And I think people are drafting for growth here. He's just 22 years old. He was okay last year, hit 240, 17 home runs, 17, 16. It is absolutely possible that he takes another step forward, but I don't know that projections will aggressively expect that to happen for Jackson Holiday.

No, no. And you'll see that with projections, it's going to be a theme. Any player who's a rookie or sophomore or someone who does not have a large track record, you'll see regression to the mean of somebody coming up. And to be honest, in the long run, it's true. If you took players like that just coming up, hot shot players, And you picked them for every two players that make it, seven of them just are either busts or underperform.

So again, if you want to bet in the long term, you're going to bet the under. Projections don't obviously just say, oh, he stinks, just don't get anybody. They're giving a projection. But ATC does not see further growth. In fact, we see a little bit of regression here. Projecting for 15 homers, 14 steals, 246 average,

actually less than what he had last year. So ATC, not thrilled with holiday, and I'm not going to have him on my team either. Yeah, actually from an OPS perspective, the ATC does have him getting a little bit better in that regard. So, like, he is improving as an overall hitter, but have the playing time coming down a little bit. You know, maybe he sits against some tough lefties, things like that.

So it is hard to project a young player like this. I think just kind of... Yeah, he has bad splits. I mean, his lefties splits. He had a 62 WRC plus against lefties. He batted 200 last season versus lefties. Orioles are trying to do something. That continues.

He's going to lose playing time faster. and you got Tyler O'Neill on the team. Yeah, I think he's young enough where they'll give him the opportunity to start the season, but I mean, if he is just an automatic out every time he comes up against a lefty, at some point for a team that's trying to compete,

they will have to change things up. So just something to follow there with Jackson Holiday. This next name, Ariel, I think, is fascinating. Geraldo Pardomo, he is the 12th shortstop by projections. He is the ninth in ADP. So it's not a huge disparity. I really just wanted to talk about Pardombo.

and I think how interesting of a case it is for projections because he had this huge blow-up season, but it was like nothing we've ever seen from Geraldo Perdomo before. So I know projections, they typically look at the previous three years. What if Perdomo just broke out and, you know, increase the bat speed and he's hitting the ball harder and further, and this is just who he is now. It's so hard to factor those things into projections.

What do you think about Perdomo? Yeah, I mean, that's the thing about projections. There's going to be regression. Again, maybe he figured it out, but I'd say that he figured out something, but not all of it. I mean, if you talk about percentiles, you know, what percentile was this for him? If this is going to be his best year, is this as good as it gets for Pardomo? I would say so. I don't think it gets much better than 20 homers, 27 steals for him in almost 600 at bats.

So if you think of it that way, you know, you scale that down to what is. true talent is and that's what you get from projections here. Again, ATC still sees them has the ninth best shortstop, sorry, the 12th best shortstop going for nine. So it's not like, it's not very crazy off. But again, a little bit of regression. And do you want to pay for a player who just had his best year ever? I'd rather play for a player who had his worst year. And you know that it was not, it was just luck, right? Yeah. I mean, that's exactly right. I mean, that is just the tried and true by low, sell, high, right? I mean, this is what we talk about all the time in season, right? This is like,

you know, finance 101, buy low, sell high. It's fantasy 101 as well, right? It's like, why would you buy somebody coming off a career year now? I understand he just finished as a top 20 player in fantasy last year and his ADP is around 75. So if you think he can come anywhere close to what he did last season, he might be a bargain right now. But I was just playing devil's advocate to To be fair, I do think that Pardomo is going to regress myself. I think he could do a little bit better in some of the projections here, like 12 homers. I could see maybe him getting to 15, the batting average at 263. I could see him hitting, you know, 270, 280, but, you know, 88 runs, 20 steals.

I think that's pretty spot on for Pardtow. Sure. I mean, look at Jaron Duran from a couple years ago and he goes the second round. Why? He regressed somewhere in the middle. Pete Crowe Armstrong is the one that reminds me of him last year. Sure, he did that. That's going to be his high part.

Think of Jaron Duran, just push him down a couple of rounds later. Don't buy him if it's off his best year and you're not getting value. While we're talking about Red Sox outfielder, what about Roman Anthony? He is the 28th projected outfielder by ATC. He is the 16th outfielder in ADP so far this month. I mean, this is another example. He's a rookie player. And obviously, you know, projections are always going to, you know, be conservative with rookie players

and ones that we just don't have a large sample for. I do wonder, Ariel, for the level of prospects, right, that comes up. And there are all different types of prospects and things, but like Roman Anthony was the top prospect in all of baseball. So should something like that factor in more? I mean, should his, you know, conservative rookie projection maybe be a little bit higher just because he was such a high-level prospect? Yeah.

No, definitely. I mean, you know what projections do to rookies, so you know what it's going to go with. But if you have a certain pedigree and you believe it and you have the track record and you understand that, then I might be inclined to bump him up quite a bit more. Like with Paul Steens, we just knew what he was. Projections are going to regress him, but you know what he was. So I'm willing to take a little bit higher take on Roman Anthony. I'm not going to go fourth round about pick 60. That's a little too high for my blood when there's some tried and true players at the same. price point. But yeah, I think that the

ATC projections of 18 homers 10 steel 264, I think there's a good chance he beats that. I'm willing to say he can go over 20 homers because of his pedigree.

So again, I'm bumping up. I know what projections do. My site is going up, but I think people are a little bit getting too crazy with a rookie.

Can a rookie make second round value? We've seen Corby and Carol do it. Yes. But more often than not, we don't. And by the way, if you're right, great. You've bought a great player and you've gotten an extra round or two.

If you're wrong, want, wah, I'd rather be wrong and miss the chance of the upside than be wrong and all of a sudden get a fourth round bust. Yeah, I've said this about Roman Anthony already. I think, you know, where he's being drafted, it is a little bit aggressive in terms of ADP, but I actually think just based on what we saw last year and he got off to a little bit of a slow start and then really, really pick things up. I think the most likely outcome is that he returns value where he's being drafted, kind of just right at that base level. I think that's kind of like my median expectation. But there is a chance based on his prospect pedigree that he just goes nuclear.

And we're talking about him as like a first or second round player next season. Kind of like what you said about Corman Carroll. I think not the same skill set, but his ability and the chance for him to blow up like that. So if he falls a little bit past ADP, you know, I'm doing. a slow NFBC 50 right now, which is a 12 team draft and hold. And I got him at the 5-6 turn. So I think that was like pick 60 or 61 or something like that. And I didn't have an outfielder yet.

And I just, I really like him. So I like the skill set. And so I was fine pulling the trigger there on Roman Anthony. Let's talk about one of the new Mets, Luis Robert here. He is the 36th outfielder by projections 28th in ADP. I think a lot of it has to do with the injuries that Luis Robert has dealt with. It's also a sub-700 OPS two years in a row.

Even when he's played, he hasn't been great. This is one where I don't think that you can really quantify. I mean, change of scenery and him going from one of the worst teams in baseball in the White Sox to one of the best teams in baseball with the New York Mets. I just wonder if, you know, that change of scenery can kind of help get Luis Robert back on track. But again, that's not quantitative. It's not something that you could just say, oh, let me increase.

the projections by 15% because he went from the White Sox to the Mets. It's just, it's something that could happen, but you probably won't see it in projections. Yeah, I mean, Marcus Semyon takes them out to lunch. He's not really going to show up in my projections. We know that Marcus Semyon has a great effect on people, but I don't know how the heck to quantify it. Your guess is as good as mine. You know, I just projections do what they do. Sounds like value somewhere in the ninth round, which is where he's going for.

So, you know, I'm okay with taking him at that spot. especially because he does steal, right? He stole 33 bases last year, and the Mets have been stealing more. So I get that, especially if he's batting lower in the lineup might actually help his stolen base totals more. So, yeah, he has a lot of value.

He's somewhat unique in terms of fantasy output, in terms of his makeup of his stats. So, yeah, he has total, he has value. I'm in the air, whether I want to pull the trigger on him personally. in the ninth round, I'm usually doing something else with my picks. But hey, I'm hoping as a Met fan that he just absolutely plays 500 at bats or more. And he's a master center fielder. And Tyrone Taylor doesn't come play much.

Yeah, I think that there is a lot of volatility for someone like Luis Robert, the injuries, the production when he's on the field. Another thing that you can't quantify, I mean, I think this is technically a contract year for him. The Mets have a $20 million team option after 2026, but they're not going to pick that up if he doesn't have a good season. So it is motivation for somebody

like Luis Robert. The projections for him in 127 games, 234 batting average, 19 homers, 29 steals. Honestly, not terrible. I mean, if you can get a 2030 season, I think you need a better batting average than that. Like, if we can get to 250, 2030,

I think that's a pretty good player where he's going right now. And I think he's a stay away in points leagues, the plate discipline's not very good, but in road or categories, I think that's probably fine where Luis Robert is going right now. Let's talk about O'Neill Cruz, who is the 31st outfielder by projections, the 21st in current ADP, and Chris Towers and I, we fully agree on this one. We've talked a lot about O'Neill Cruz. What do you think about him? I mean, you're not excited to take a player who batted 200 last year? I mean, somebody is because he's going inside the top 100.

I mean, you know, 200 is not 220. It's terrible. He's losing at bats. I haven't projected for 460 at bat. How can you take a player, you know, as so high up on your roster where

they're not even projected for full-time stats and he's going to lose more and more. They're not playing him a shortstop anymore. It's just outfield. Who knows? I mean, what tantalizes people is the power speed blend, but it can go to bust really quickly. By the way, each of the last four years, he has never earned his roto value. Wherever anybody picked him, he's earned less.

I think it's going to be a fifth year in a row. I will have absolutely no shares of O'Neill Cruz. I don't care what format. He's probably, he's better in points leagues because he does walk some and he does have the power speed blend, but no thank you. The last position player will mention here is Noelvie Marte. He is the 48th outfielder by ATC projection. 31st in ADP. I think this is another one just kind of projecting growth, projecting a player to stay healthy.

He's dealt with a lot of injuries. He had the PED suspension a couple of years ago. Marte is still just 24 years old. He was a big prospect as well. So I think people expect him to stay healthy for the first time and maybe take a little bit of a step forward. Do you agree that he can do that this season? You know, he's still 24 years old,

which is still really young. So there's no really clock on him for times running out. He'd better do something this year. I mean, it took Jerks and ProFar, who was the number one overall, many years until he figured it out, and then he became, you know, something really usable. Is this the year for Nueva Marte? Maybe. ATC is projecting 17 homers, 15 steals, 250 average.

So it looks like he's on the path. It's not going to give him the full green light. It's giving them a caution. But, yeah, it's very possible. He's also third-based outfield eligible, and he does have that power speed. blend. So he's interesting from a drafting perspective. He reminds me of Chris Young, Chris B. Young from a couple of years ago, who was a perennial 2020-2-30 hitter, slightly different, maybe like a 15-15-250 hitter type guy. Again, valuable in fantasy towards the bottom, towards

the end, if you need an outfielder or actually probably more valuable, a third base because of such a shallow age of the position. I'm cautious on him. In the right spot, I can take him. So the projections for Nolvi-Marte here, 250, 17 home runs, 15 steals. That's in 130 games. Again, he's dealt with injuries. So you don't want to project that he's going to play like 150-plus games. But if he manages to do that, based on those projections, if you just kind of like rate those things out, you know, he could maybe be a 20-20 player,

hit 250, go 20-20, but it is a big if if he can actually stay on the field. We just haven't seen him do that for a full season yet with Nelvi-Marty. Last four names here I have all starting pitchers who are all slightly overvalued right now in projections versus ADP. We have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Hunter Brown, Kyle Braddish, and your guy, New York Met, Nolan McLean. So any of those four, Ariel, that stand out to you that you agree with are overvalued right now in ADP?

Bradish to me has a red flag. The guy has had not more than 39 innings each of the last two years. He's being projected for 140 innings and he's being bought at like 170 innings. I mean, that just seems like a stretch. I'm not betting on that. So I agree with that overvaluineness. Nolan McLean, that I might not because, again, projections are going to be very cautious. But he's really got this stuff.

I do worry, though, about Nolan McLean, about the walk rate. I think that that could get out of control. The whip night might not be great. so cautious about that, but I think he will beat his projection. I do want to say about Yoshinobi Yamamoto. I mean, he's awesome. Whether ATC projects him as a number of seven or number four starter. I mean, we're talking about a solid anchor.

We know the skills. My only question is, will the Dodgers let him go a full 180 innings? Because remember, he's got to pitch 20 innings in a row when he gets to the World Series. Yeah, that is true World Series MVP there with Yamamoto. and we mentioned this earlier with Blake Snell and all their pitchers that they, you know, if something pops up, they do have that luxury of kind of playing things cautiously there

with their pitchers. I have Yamamoto ranked as my SP4. I know it's been a big talking point all offseason, but I think you're drafting Yamamoto almost more for floor. Like you're drafting him as the fourth starting pitcher off the board, not expecting him to finish as like a top five starting pitcher, but almost that he's going to be a top 10 guy. And I know that's typically not how we want to draft,

but for starting pitchers, I mean, if you draft Yamamoto as the SP4 and he finishes SP9, I think you'll be totally fine with that. Yeah, you're not going wrong. Again, you know, the fact that he's projected as ninth instead of four doesn't mean it's not a good play to draft him as number four because it's the floor. You know what you're going to get.

There's not much chick. He did it last year. He got even stronger. Sure, you can quibble about the innings, but you're not going to be disappointed if, oh, my God, I took him number four instead of So I'm cool with that. And I already own Yamamoto in one league as well.

You know, Ariel, while we do appreciate you coming on here, it might be your last time ever because you are not allowed to say a bad thing about Kyle Braddish. How dare you do that? He is the industry darling breakout this year, Ariel. He's going to stay healthy for 160 plus innings and he's going to be top five in Tsayung Award voting. That's the hope. I mean, the stuff is filthy if he could stay healthy. I think he could have a huge season, but he is a hype guy around the industry.

And I think a lot of times you'll see the price tag does not reflect the projection for somebody like that. Oh, no, definitely. I mean, the fifth round pick, it's kind of a stretch for me to really give notice there. Again, I can't quibble about the stuff. He's absolutely fantastic, even in the couple of innings he pitched the last two years. There's no argument about the skills. I just can't get there with the playing time. And you got to regress a guy on a projection basis coming back from injury.

I know he's been sub three. Projections have him at three, six. Okay, maybe I'll afford him three, four, three, two. I just can't get there on the innings. And it's just way too risky. I'm an actuary. It's way too risky for me. I can't do it, Frank.

Can't do it. All right, all right. We'll let you back on in the future. That is Ariel Cohen. Make sure to give him a follow on X at ATCNY. Again, he is the creator, the mind, behind the ATC projections, also the host of the Beat the Shift podcast.

Is there anything else that you'd like to promote Ariel before we wrap things up? No, that's it. Also look at my work over at Fangraphs and Rodel Bowler, and thanks again for having me. All right, we're going to wrap there for Ariel. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.