Fantasy Baseball Today - 2026 First Base & Third Base Tiers! Luis Robert Traded to the Mets! (1/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: January 21, 2026Before we get to Scott's tiers, Luis Robert was finally traded to the Mets (2:46)! ... Any interest in Luisangel Acuña to the White Sox (10:53)? ... News (14:25): Ha-seong Kim is out 4-5 months. ... ...Let's get into the first base tiers, starting with the elite and near-elite tiers (23:59). ... We're expecting similar production from Pasquantino Soderstrom and Busch in the Next-Best Things tier (33:30). ... The first base last resorts tier includes a lot of interesting names (41:18). ... Jose Ramirez is the lone first-rounder among third basemen (50:43). ... Manny Machado kicks off the near-elite tier (57:53). ... Matt Chapman is a totally fine fallback option at third base (1:08:50). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Hey there.
Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, January 21st.
I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
Today on the show, it's,
tiers week. We are starting with Scott's first base and third base tiers for
26. I know a lot of people look forward to these so we'll break that down and just a
heads up beforehand. This is not the same as our position previews. We're not going to
dive deep into every single player. We're going to more so talk about ADP where
these guys are going, ranking strategy, things like that. Once we get to the position previews in
February, we'll go in depth on as many players as humanly possible. But we also got some news over
the weekend and just had a trade right before the start of this podcast, which is partially why we're
starting so late. So apologies, but honestly, it's the Mets and the White Sox fault, so I blame them.
Let's start there, and then we will get to the tiers, and it has finally happened.
Luis Robert is getting traded over to the Mets in exchange for Luis Anhele Cunia and a pitching prospect,
Truman Pauley. Never heard of the guy, but 80-grade name, actually just taken in the 12th.
round of last year's draft, so there's that. Obviously, big upgrade for Luis Robert in terms of
the lineup, the supporting cast that he's joining with the New York Mets. Honestly, Park Factor
say that the ballpark is better as well. Not sure that I completely buy that. Chris, we were talking
beforehand. We're like, I don't know, is Luis Roberts still good at baseball? I guess we're going to
find out. This is a pretty good landing spot. Relative to us, he's definitely good at baseball.
Relative to like
Relative to Tyrone
Yeah
Like you the three of us
Relative to like
Tyrone Taylor
I'm actually not sure
They have identical 84 WRC pluses
Over the past two seasons
Taylor might actually be a better defender
At this point
I genuinely have no idea
If Louise Robert is any good anymore
And given what the White Sox got in return for him
It doesn't seem like MLB teams
have a lot of faith that Luis Robert is good anymore.
I'm not saying he definitely isn't, to be clear,
but it's been a really rough couple of years for Luis Robert.
And I was mostly willing to handwave that away in 2024,
a terrible situation, blah, blah, blah,
given the benefit of the doubt.
And then he comes out in 2025.
And he's basically exactly as hopeless as he was.
He cut the strikeout rate a little bit.
By a lot, not a little bit.
It went from 33% to 26%.
But he was actually worse as a hitter overall.
And the underlying numbers are not very good anymore.
I know we're only three years removed from a 38th Homer 20 steel season.
But this is a guy who's had a ton of injuries over the course of his career,
including like several hip injuries over the past three or four seasons,
a couple of knee injuries.
Like, it's possible he's just.
just finished. I'm not saying that for sure. He was still a very good defensive player. He was
still a very good base dealer last year. Still signs that he's not completely finished physically,
but it's bleak. There's not a lot of optimism to take from anything he's done lately.
I like that the strikeout rate was greatly improved last year. I like that the
pull air rate went up last year. Uh, not an insignificant.
amount and yet the batting average and the home run output neither of them improved even with those
underlying improvements which to me i think is more says more about the the top line numbers than the
underlying numbers like i i think louise robert and the expected stats show it he deserved better
than he got last year and we've been making the case or at least i've been making the case um
look i don't know obviously this is just this is just true
trying to make sense of what seemed like a near first round talent falling off a cliff.
The White Sox have been so bad.
And that maybe Louise Robert joining a legit contender, a lot of good players around him in that Mets lineup.
He's going to be batting like seventh or eighth probably.
Maybe that will help light a fire under him and recapture some of the pre-2020 form.
that made him so exciting in fantasy.
I don't think I'd invest much in that possibility.
But I also don't think that, let me see.
So he's going 28th among outfielders on average since January 1st
and NFBC competitions.
I rank him 34th among outfielders.
So he's a little ahead of ADP where I have him.
But I don't.
I don't have him so far below ADP that there's no chance I would draft Louie's Robert.
I think this improves my chances of drafting him slightly.
He did steal 33 bases despite being injury plagued last year.
So if he can get that batting average up to 240, if he can approach 20 homers and, you know, as a 35 to 40 steal guy,
I think he'll, I think he'll be great as your third outfielder.
And I think there's a chance he far exceeds those numbers.
I think it's a low chance.
but I think it's a better chance that he'll be, he'll do something like that than,
well, certainly than like a Tyrone Taylor would, but even like a Jacob Marcy who is being drafted
in the same range.
Louise Robert has a, his peak is, I would imagine, is still higher than Marcy's.
I would definitely rather have Louise Robert than O'Neill Cruz, who's going 30-some
picks ahead of him. I have Cruz ranked a little bit ahead, but in terms of their price, I think
Robert's current price is a little more palatable, but I also-
You do prefer Cruz. You're just saying at-
Yeah, I have them both ranked below their ADP, but I'd rather take the risk on the cheaper guy. I just worry, like, you look at the rankings right now. He's 130.6 in ADP. Pahez, Teascah
Hernandez, and Kyle Stowers are all within two picks of him. And then it's Jose Al-Tuvae at
113.5.
I would guess Luis Robert jumps up ahead of Stowers, Hernandez, and Pahas.
Yep.
Probably around the 120 range, if not a little higher, moving forward.
It just depends where the price settles because it's entirely possible.
Like, we're not psychologists, even if we were, we have not talked to Luis Robert.
I have no idea if that explains.
It's an interesting theory for why he's been so bad that he's just been completely unmotivated
the last two years.
It's also like, I don't know, does it scale?
Like, the White Sox were consistent significantly more competitive in 2025 and they were in
2024 and it's not like he was any better.
So I don't know.
They weren't competitive though.
Right, but they were.
They were better.
But they were alive, you know, like that offense had some dunes.
So who were those outfielders you think he's going to jump ahead of now in ADP?
To Oscar Hernandez, Kyle Stowers and Andy Paz.
I don't.
And Altuve, too.
right? Altuva is about 15 pictures. I would prefer all of those to Robert. I did before the trade and I would still after the trade.
But, you know, this is, it's not like Robert is so far behind that group that I could foresee no scenario where I draft.
You might need steals. Yeah. And I mean like, again, we're just, we're fixating on the NFBC ADP because that's all we have. But that's such a squishy area that.
outfield rankings that I imagine the ADP for all the various sites is going to be quite jumbled
there and Robert might sink to the bottom in ones that aren't selling out quite so hard for the
oh what if this guy is a 2040 guy because look he stole 33 bases last year in a partial season
and i don't think the home run pace was that far off from 20 either without the amount of time
you missed yeah so louise robert wound up hitting 14 homers in 110 games he has only
exceeded 110 games once so far in his career.
So again, that's another factor.
He's dealt with a lot of injuries.
Scott, to your point, if you just look at the range of where Luis Robert has gone so far in January,
his min pick is 95.
His max pick is 158.
So it kind of, it's a pretty wide range, 60 picks within all the drafts that have been done so far.
Chris, I agree with your point.
I think Luis Robert getting traded over to the Mets, he's probably going to move up a little bit,
probably in that like 110 to 120 range if I had to guess right now.
what about Luis Anhele Acuna?
Where does he play?
Do we have any interest?
It looks like the White Sox infield is full.
So maybe center field.
He's played 109 career games and has hit 248 with three homers, 16 steals, and a 640 OPS.
I say this tongue in cheek.
But he just had a four homer game in the Venezuelan Winter League.
I wonder if the White Sox saw that.
And that influence, no, I probably didn't influence this trade.
First year, first four-homer game in that league history.
It's pretty crazy stuff.
And they've had like a lot of, like my in-laws are from Venezuela.
My father-in-law has like a bunch of baseball cards from when he was a kid in Venezuela of all the Venezuelan leagues.
And like, they had some dudes playing over there.
Legit major leaguer is playing over there.
Nobody ever had a four-homber game.
It's kind of wild.
Do you guys have any deep league interest in Luis Anhele Cunia?
He ended up with eight home runs and 39 games, by the way,
in the Venezuelan Winter League,
which is, you know, has hitter-friendly parks.
And obviously the pitching isn't up to major league standards.
But we have seen these kind of glimpses of power from him in the past.
Remember filling in for Francisco Lindor at the end of 2024.
He had a lot of hard hit balls.
He had a few clutch home runs.
He looked like, oh, maybe he is developing into something.
I think the biggest problem with his power development has been, you know, elevating the ball.
He tends to be more of a slash and burn style hitter.
His average exit velocity with the Mets last year, which was in a lot more of bats than that stretch filling in for Lindor two years ago, was only 87.9 miles per hour.
So I think he's 23.
You see some interest from the scouts at times that project more power onto him.
And then he has a performance like this in the Venezuelan Winter League.
Look, it's sort of like I was saying about Louise Robert.
The odds are he is as you see him.
What you see is what you get with Luis Anhelecuna like it is for Luis Robert.
But is there that chance that he emerges as something more?
He's young enough.
There are enough optimistic scouting reports that, okay, maybe.
So I feel like this was a trade between the White Sox and the Mets.
where they're both like, I don't know what more we could do with this guy.
Obviously, the Mets don't really have an avenue to play Luis on Helicunya,
and he's kind of at a point where they can't just keep stashing him in the minor leagues.
So maybe he'll turn into something with the White Sox.
You brought up before the show, Frank, you're doing a draft, like a degenerate,
and you said, ah, it's like $2.75.
Whoa, strays, dude.
It's picked $2.75.
Should I go Ocuna here?
There's like Caleb Durbin still.
And it's like, come on.
I mean, the White Sox would be thrilled if they got a Caleb Durbin outcome from Luis Anah, Ola Cunia.
If you're throwing a dart like that, like, Carson Benj is going way later than that point in the draft.
I still think he's a better stash.
So there are definitely better dice rolls to take than Luisana Helacunya.
And to your point on Carson Ben should just mention, there's still a left field opening here for the Mets.
So if he performs well in spring training, could still have a real shot to be up on opening day again.
That was Carson Ben.
But the big news here, Luis Robert, traded over to the New York Mets.
Let's get into some other news items quickly from the weekend.
Scott, pour one out for your boy.
Hassan Kim underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger on Sunday
and has an initial recovery timeline of four to five months.
He signed a one year, $20 million deal with the Braves back in December.
Tough break, no pun intended, but it sounds like he could be back mid to late May.
So deeper leagues, it's like a draft.
and stash, shallower leagues, we'll see what he is when he returns.
Maricio Dubon expected to start in his place.
The team also signed Jorge Mateo to a one-year deal.
Do either of those guys matter at all in the deepest of leagues?
Not the deepest of leagues.
Dubon's going to get some looks in a little.
I guess like NL only leagues, but that's about it.
Yeah, that's about it.
Yep.
The twins signed Victor Caratini to a two-year $14 million deal.
Karatini is 32 years old and a solid hitter last year,
259, 12 homers, 728 OPS over 114 games.
Earlier today I read an article from MLB.com that believes Caratini could be the team's primary
DH while also getting starts at catcher and first base.
And Chris, if that's the case, then I think Caratini should probably be on our radar in two
catcher leagues.
In 15 team two catcher leagues, yes.
I think even in 12 team leagues, there are enough catchers who are interesting that I don't really have a
ton of interest in keratinny and i also just i don't know like he's okay sounds like the
ones are going to be bad this year yeah he's never been anything more than they're going to be bad
that that's for sure he had a seven-flai at dh really yeah he had a 744 r p s in his best season
in 2024 like that's a really bad i mean there are worst d-h situations in baseball i was gonna say
I mean, you guys are crapping on them, but if you got a 740 OPS from your DH, that's not terrible.
They're paying two years $20 million for that for a 32-year-old Victor Carrotini?
I also read that it's like insurance if they want to trade Ryan Jeffers at the deadline,
and then they could just play him a catcher.
But it sounds like he's going to play a little bit all over the place,
but I think he's going to play a lot.
So if you're chasing that in a deeper two-catchel league,
Victor Caratini is for you.
The Cardinals plan to give JJ Weatherholt every opportunity to make
the opening day roster.
They had their, what, Cardinals, Fest, or whatever they call it over the weekend.
So we did get a few news items.
Here's one.
We never heard this one before.
Mason Wynne plans to run more in 2026 now that his knee is surgically repaired.
So said the same thing last offseason.
He was playing through a meniscus tear, so definitely could have affected, you know, his ability to run.
So it's still possible.
Mason Wynne ran a bunch of the miners, and he is very fast.
So we'll see.
Following that three-team trade late last week,
the race said that Gavin Lux will be the team's primary second baseman this season.
We have some Reds updates.
Ellie Dela Cruz turned down what would have been the largest contract in Reds history
that is previously owned by Joey Vado,
who had a 10-year $225 million deal.
That came 14 years ago.
So it was at least more than that.
And I believe Ellie is a Boris client,
so he's definitely going to get to free agency one day.
Yeah, I was talking about this with Gunner Henderson the other day.
Not like, I wasn't talking to Gunner Henderson, but I was talking about Gunner Henderson.
And like, these guys are both, I think, entering their fourth season.
So they're both handing arbitration this year.
There's no, there's no discounts left once you've gotten to that point.
Like Gunner Henderson and Elliott-L-Dacruz, if you're signing them to a long-term extension,
I think that number's got to start with a four, right?
Well, Bobby Witt signed a $288 million extension,
but I think that was pre-arbitration too.
That was pre-arbitration, it was a couple years ago.
I mean, it has to at least start with a three.
Yeah, I don't think you're signing.
Probably a three.
Yeah, I don't think you're signing L&A.
who's for less than,
Orgoner Henderson, for less than $35 million
for their free agent years and probably more.
Yeah, that's fair.
Yeah, like, okay, yeah, it would have been the largest contract in Red's history.
needs to be the largest contract in Red's history by about 100 million, I think, to have a chance to actually sign him.
Some other Reds updates, Matt McLean has added 12 pounds of muscle over the offseason.
Sal Stewart has been working at first base defensively and has dropped 20 pounds to make himself more limber for the upcoming season.
But they traded.
Maybe lost some power.
It's nothing.
It's nothing.
We've been doing this long enough.
Lost weight, added weight.
It's nothing.
nothing. I'll tell you who it mattered for. C.C. Sabathia lost weight and he couldn't pitch it anymore.
That's the one guy. That's the one guy. He lost all that momentum. Yeah. The Rangers signed
Jacob Junus to a one year four million dollar deal. Sounds like he will come out of the bullpen.
Chris, your Marlins, busy. They acquired pitcher Bradley Blaylock from the Rockies in exchange for
24-year-old pitcher Jake Brooks. Laylock doesn't look very interesting at all. So we'll see.
He's getting out of course. It just have to be mentioned, Frank. Let's keep it moving. Keep it moving.
Sorry, man. Yeah.
that written down before all the other news.
And congrats to the newest members of the Hall of Fame,
Carlos Beltron and Andrew Jones,
voted in by the writers.
They are joining Jeff Kent in the class of 2026.
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Let's take a break and we'll be back.
right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy, a baseball today.
All right, let's get to the tiers.
Scott is rushing me along for once.
I love that.
Scott, before we get to your actual first base tiers
and the names and all that,
let's just give people a quick little recap
of what the tiers are, your process for tears.
I assume most people know,
but there might be a few stragglers out there
who don't.
So what are tiers?
What is your process for them?
Yeah, so I don't,
claim to have invented tears.
In fact, I know I didn't because I heard about them from my AP calculus teacher.
I could have just said math teacher, but you know, AP calculus teachers.
Wow.
Some of us had to take algebra two twice, but sure.
Congrats on your AP calculus.
The irony is I think you do, you do, you, you're better with the maths now when it comes to, uh, analyzing players.
Just faking it.
Um, but anyway.
I heard about it from him.
I mean, it was kind of a, I just didn't have a name for it.
He gave me the name tiers for it.
But basically, it's a method of drafting where you wait until the clearest drop-offs at a position.
It helps you determine how long you can wait to take a player at the position by denoting where the biggest drop-offs are at each position.
And, you know, if there are like five players left in a tier at a position and two players left a tier at another position, well, you take the position with the two players left.
And so, you know, what we're going to go through now is kind of just the places in my own rankings where I've marked the biggest drop-offs at each position.
All right, let's get into those first base tiers.
And we are starting with the elite.
two names, Nick Kurtz
and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Should note that there is no
first-bast tier, first-round tier
for first base. There is for third base
because neither of these guys are going
in the first round. They're both mid-second rounders
based on NFBC ADP
in January. Vlad Jr.
at 18.1. Kurtz at 18.7.
So very close.
Our consensus roto rankings
have Kurtz at 21, Vlad at 23.
Consensus head-to-points.
We have Vlad.
at 18 and Kurtz at 22.
So, Chris, two very different players here.
Vlad, you're getting more batting average, less power, better in a points league.
Kurtz, more power, a lot less batting average, we think, and seems like he would be better
in a Roto category's format.
They're both awesome.
They are both unlikely to be on my team as top 18 or so picks, but I don't really have
a problem with them.
It's just not the way I'm.
likely to build my teams this season, I think.
And I think that makes sense from a tier's perspective
because the following tier at first base,
which we'll get to in a second,
I'm not trying to jump ahead,
but the near elite at first base is the biggest at any position.
So, you know, a lot of times when I'm kind of pre-gaming a draft,
which I don't recommend doing too much,
but particularly if you have only one draft,
draft or a very limited number of drafts.
You're going to do it some.
Can't help it.
I kind of earmark the biggest tier at each position is, okay, well, maybe that's the one I'm
going to gravitate toward because I know I have time to wait there.
I'm not going to feel urgency if I target that tier.
And at first base, it's the tier right behind this Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero tier.
Let's talk about that tier.
The Near Elite includes Pete Alonzo, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Naylor.
So NFBC ADP in January, this ranges from Alonzo at pick 25, all the way down to Freddie Freeman at pick 65.
Harper, Olson, and Devers, all going between picks 46 and 54.
So very narrow range on those three.
And Scott, based on everything you said, the way that tiers work, I don't think any of us will wind up with Pete Alonzo in drafts this season.
when he's going so far ahead of everybody else in this tier,
and we have a somewhat similar expectation for the names here.
So instead of Pete Alonzo at 25, you know, wait two rounds and grab Olson or Harper
or even three or four rounds later and get Freddie Freeman.
You won't get as much power, but, I mean, he's still a productive player.
Well, you're probably getting the best batting average of the group,
and you may be getting the most runs of the group.
Yeah, there's plenty.
Freddie, like the idea behind the tiers also that maybe I didn't make clear.
I mean, yes, it marks the biggest drop-offs at the position,
but it's also like the players in the same tier.
In theory, they're capable of being just as valuable as each other.
You might have slight preferences within the tier,
but the reason the tier approach to drafting works is,
that those preferences aren't firm.
You're not that confident that, for instance,
Pete Alonzo is going to be better than Matt Olson or Bryce Harbor.
And I don't think we have reason to be that confident he will.
I think he's most likely to, which is why I rank him ahead.
But there's been a lot of, between those three especially,
a lot of one guy performing better one year and another or worse.
And, you know, they're just similarly capable players.
So I think it makes sense to put them in this tier.
And I agree if you, like me, agree that Pete Alonzo belongs in the same tier as Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, or even Freddie Freeman,
then you're probably not going to draft him this year because he's going well ahead of it.
He's going more like he belongs in the same tier as Nick Kurtz and Vladimir Guerrero.
But I don't believe he does.
So probably out on Pete Alonzo.
It's basically flipped from where it was last year.
Don't we do this same song and dance every year, Chris?
It's like Olson goes up around, Alonzo goes down, and then vice versa.
We know, like, as a community, we know that the most recent season is not the only thing that matters.
Like, we're all smart enough to know that.
And then we get to drafting and we get to putting our rankings together.
And we all just, I don't know, collectively throw that out the window sometimes.
And it's like, you got to draft Pete Alonzo.
rounds ahead of Bryce Harper because Pete Alonzo was better than Bryce Harper last year.
And it's like, well, okay, but in drafts literally one year ago, Bryce Harper's ADP was 21.3 and Pete Alonzo's was 45.6.
Yep.
And the difference is Petalanzo had a better year last year.
Like we have, like, Rafael Devere's ADP is like 40, 30 picks later than Pete Alonzo's roughly.
probably lower after the way the trend's been going.
And if you look at what Petalanzo did in 2024, 34 homers, 240 batting average, 88 RBI, 91 runs.
Here's just Raphael Devere's 162 game pace at Oracle Field, which I think is the primary reason people are concerned about him.
There are 234 average, 37 homers, 91 runs, 84 RBI.
That's basically exactly what Pete Alonzo did in 2024.
for. I just don't see much reason to pay for Pete Alonzo. I think this is a perfect example of the
value of the tiers approach. Myself, I feel like Josh Naylor should be a tier below, but
yeah, no, I want to talk to you guys about that. Because I actually, and I didn't, I didn't give you
the footnotes for what the little symbols mean in my tears when I sent them to you, Frank. But
Josh Naylor has a dagger next to his name, and that means he belongs one tier.
or lower in roto leagues but all the but as i say that as i say that he stole 30 bases last year which
you'd think would make him more valuable in in roto leagues and maybe oh well maybe he belongs one
tier lower in points leagues i say points because the home runs tend to lag but he gets a lot of extra
base hits the strikeout rate is always low if you just look at head to head point per game averaged
the last two years for josh naler so leaving out you know not not you know not
not singling out the 30 steel season,
but the last two years,
Josh Naylor's point per game average
has been on par with a lot of these other guys,
which is why I think he's especially valuable in points leagues.
But if we count on him to be a big base dealer again,
he's back with the Mariners.
He ran especially wild with them.
Then maybe that dagger doesn't need to be next to his name,
and maybe Josh Naylor just belongs in this tier outright.
I think he does.
He's kind of a tweener.
He's kind of a tweener for sure.
I think he does deserve to be in this tier.
He has finished as a top 40 player overall two years in a row.
I realize he's done that with varying skill sets.
Yeah, in Roto, two years in a row, top 40 player and top three first baseman,
two years in a row for Josh Naler.
He's done it with varying skill sets, but Chris, you used to say this about Zander Bogarts all the time.
It's like, you don't know exactly the shape of production you're going to get,
but you know he's going to be productive, right?
He makes a lot of contact.
He's great with runners on base.
He's going to give you RBI, batting average isn't going to hurt you.
He's not hitting really well in Seattle, so we don't really have that concern.
His numbers in Seattle were awesome.
And if he doesn't hit for power, I think maybe he could just steal a few more bags.
I'm not expecting like 12 to 15 steals, but if he does that with 20 to 25 home runs
and a good batting average and good counting stats, like he absolutely is worth a top 60 or top 70 pick.
The only thing I would say is when you have that variance in skill set, it doesn't always have to work out well.
Like, there could be the year where he combines the 2025 power production and the 2024 batting average and is just a guy.
I don't think that's likely.
Like, I do, I like that he has varying paths to success, but it doesn't necessarily mean it will always work out for him.
And he is, depending on how you feel about the stolen bases, he is probably,
the top tier or top two tier first baseman with the least,
with the least obvious strength.
Like he is a guy, unless he is a big base dealer,
he doesn't really stand out in the way that Devers does for power or, you know.
So that's the one concern I would have.
But I do have him ranked closer in the overall to Freddie Freeman than I do to Vinny Pasquantino.
and I do think there's a clear tier.
So I, yeah, I do.
Maybe he's on a tier of his own
or a half tier of his own, but yeah.
Let's get into that next best things tier
and it includes Ben Rice, Vinnie Pee.
Baby.
Vinny Pass Quantino, Yandy Diaz,
Tyler Soderstrom and Michael Bush.
Yandy Diaz, one tier lower in Roto slash categories.
I got that right.
Right, Scott?
Yandy Diaz.
Yes.
One tier lower?
One tier lower in Roto, which I think everybody can understand.
Yeah, he's always a standout in Head-Ded Points League.
Last year, 3.1 fantasy points per game for Diaz.
That was the same as Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman,
and it was actually better than Vinnie Pasquantino.
The NFBC ADP in January ranges from Ben Rice at 46,
down to Diaz at 126.
If we exclude Rice and Diaz,
because Rice is going to be drafted as a catcher,
and obviously he's getting way hyped right now,
and Diaz because he's more of a points league option.
It's a very narrow range of Vinny P at 82 down to Michael Bush at 102.
So this is a 20-pick gap for three hitters,
past Guantino, Sotersstrom, Michael Bush,
who I think all have a pretty similar expectation, right?
It's like 260-ish batting average, 30-ish home runs,
and good counting sets, right?
Am I missing anything?
Well, I guess what you're missing is Michael Bush might say,
a lot against left-handers.
I don't know that he did last year.
Do they have a good enough platoon option
to sit him against lefties?
That's a good question.
Well, it depends.
It depends on Tyler Austin's success in Korea was real,
or Japan was real.
He was really good over there the last couple of seasons,
but roster resource has Tyler Austin
platooning with Moises by Asteroz at D.H.
So I kind of just think Michael Bush is going to play
every day.
Yeah, but I mean, there's also Matt Shaw with the Cubs right now.
True.
But fair enough.
I mean, when I first made out my rankings, it was before the offseason he'd even
began.
So I was kind of assuming the Cubs would figure out a platoon partner for Michael Bush.
And there isn't a clear one as of now.
So maybe he's going to play more regularly.
In any case, I'm tearing him with Pasquantino.
So that's fine.
He's tiered more as if he's going to play every day.
but he and Soderstrom were
honestly when I first put laid these out
when I first lined up the names
I had I had Soderstrom and Bush a tier below
and I decided
I decided that was being a little silly
that was taking everybody's number
at
everybody's numbers that they just put up
as gospel as opposed to
just part of the range of outcomes
for that player.
Like the range of outcomes for Pasquantino
probably lose some RBI,
maybe lose some home runs.
The range of outcomes for Soderstrom
probably gained some of both
and maybe outperform him
a batting average even.
And then Bush,
if he is playing more regularly,
he has the best lineup
of the three in theory.
Yeah, they probably all are,
all should be ranked similarly,
even though Pasquantino,
I think, was clearly
the most productive of them last year.
I don't think he,
he's an order of magnitude better than them.
I think their range of outcomes is similar,
and I think they deserve to be tiered this way.
Yeah, I would agree with that.
I think this tier worked out pretty well.
If we look at the next one, the fallback options,
we have Salvador Perez, Spencer Torkelson, and Jonathan Aranda.
So much smaller, only three names here.
Perez, you should use him at Catcher anyway,
but he has first base eligibility.
If we look at the ADP in January,
Aranda is at 184, Torkelson at 185.
So right next to each other, pretty big drop down from the previous tier in terms of ADP at least.
Chris, two very different skill sets for the players here.
Torkelson and Aranda, like Torkelson, 30 homers, bad batting average, and just yearly inconsistency.
Aranda, we don't have track record, but it looks like he has, he should hit for batting average,
and maybe it's like 20 to 25 home run, something like that.
Yeah, so here's the problem with Aranda.
The quality of contact matchers are really good.
And they still suggest he overperformed at least a little bit last season, especially in batting average.
He had a 316 batting average, 294XBA.
Well, 294XBA would be awesome.
We would sign up right now for a 294 batting average from Jonathan Rhonda.
The problem is then you start looking at it.
It's like 25% strikeout rate, 409 Babbip.
like okay
they don't expect him to hit 316
he hits 294
well that still sounds like it's probably
a 390
380 badbip
that's not going to happen
I know he hit
like the whole point is that he
earned the batting average that he got
or the expected batting average he got based on
the quality of contact he created
and he's a he has high
he runs high line drive rates
right but he's not going to be
he's not going to be a
He's not going to be a 380 Babbitt guy.
Yeah, probably not.
Even 327 is probably like, that's probably asking a lot.
And if he had a 327 Babbat blast season, he probably hits like 260, 250.
So that's the thing that I'm really struggling with Aranda is like, I think he's good.
But can he tap into more power?
Will the raise give him the chance to play every day?
are there other first baseman with similar skill sets who I think do have a path to every day playing time who are cheaper?
I do.
So that that's the thing I'm struggling with.
It's like specifically with Aranda versus Kyle Manzardo, similar prospects, Marzardo probably a little younger even.
Aranda hits the ball a lot harder than Manzart.
Arana does hit the ball harder.
Yeah.
I mean, if you compare the sliders, particularly the sliders on the baseball savant page that we normally look at,
XBA X-Lug, average X-Vlocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, you know, the quality of contact metrics that really, that Stackcast really excels at.
Jonathan Aranda and Ben Rice look like the same player.
And here we got Ben Rice being pushed into round two stupidly in some of these NFBC drafts.
But, you know, the point is everybody loves Ben Rice.
I think everybody would have him as going in the first six rounds at least.
And then you got a Rhonda who's bear.
getting any traction in drafts.
I actually think, and this was part of the reason my initial inclination was to put Bush
and Tyler Soderstrom in the lower tier is because I think both Spencer Torkelson and
Jonathan Aranda are two of the most undervalued hitters in drafts right now.
Aranda, you know, I've always loved Aranda, and so I don't want to fixate on that.
I think part of what I'm expecting is a strikeout rate to go down a little, and so that will help
help reconcile everything better if the strikeout rate is three points lower.
But leaving that a sign, Torkelson, I mean, look what Torkelson just did.
The production between him and Michael Bush wasn't that.
Very similar.
And, you know, it's a playoff caliber team.
He has a for sure everyday lineup spot.
I do think Bush is better.
I think Torkelson clearly has more downs.
side. But if you're talking about what I expect to happen from those two players, I think it's
going to be pretty similar. Maybe Bush with 20 extra points of batting average.
The last resorts here at first base, we have Woonitaka, Morikami, Spencer Steer, Wilson,
Alic-Gatreras, Alec Berluson, Kyle Manzardo, Christian Walker, and South Stewart.
This ADP ranges from 168 with Alec Berluson down to South Stewart at 209.
So Burleson, based on ADP, actually going ahead of both Arronda and Torrleston.
who we spoke about in the previous tier.
Scott, safe to say that this range, the last resorts tier,
these are more so guys you would want as your corner infielder
in a roto, in a deeper roto type of league, right?
Yeah, I would say so.
And it's kind of a bunch of different kind of players, right?
You've got Wilson Contreras, who I think we have a,
we have a clear expectation of what his stat line is going to look like.
It's just going to be pretty ordinary for the position.
But, you know, a safe...
Very useful.
Very useful. Yeah.
Then you got Spencer Steer, who has been an overachiever to this point,
and is he going to regain some of the steals he had from two years ago?
Like, just a lot more question marks with Spencer Steer.
Mutataka Murakami, tons of upside, tons of downs of down.
side.
And then Alec Berluson is kind of just a batting average stabilizer.
I don't think he has a particularly high ceiling.
But, you know, so just different ways you could go within this tier, I think depending on your
league depth, depending on the way your builds going.
Sal Stewart I have in this tier, tons of upside.
Oh, yes.
Bryce Eldridge is only DHL eligible, but presumably he'll gain first base.
So, you know, you could consider him a part of this tier as well.
and that would be in the South Stewart, Munitaka Murakami category of tons of upside,
maybe for at least for his rookie or similar downside to Murakami.
So, yeah, a wide range of player types here, but I think, you know, this is the part of,
it depends how deep your draft is, but like we're getting toward the end of like a 10 or 12 team draft
in this range of first base rankings.
So the tiers get bigger and it's less about waiting until the tier runs out, I think,
then kind of choosing your favorite from within the tier.
Mainly I'm just wanting to make sure people don't reach into this tier ahead of time
when there are still some names from previous tiers available.
I do want to highlight Kyle Manzardo because I think he is my favorite player in this tier.
The big question is, is he going to get to play against lefties?
Well, last season, he had a 315 expected Wobah, 90 mile per hour, average egg to velocity,
and a 26% strikeout rate against them, which all screams viable.
Not great, but playable.
And they got rid of Carlos Santana at the deadline or whatever the roster deadline in late August was.
They only played like six left-handed starters in all of September,
but I'm pretty sure Cal Mazaros started four.
of them plus their lone playoff game against a lefty lefty by the name of
teric scubal who you may have heard of comments are to started uh i think he might just be an
everyday player for the guardians i mean you look at the roster i don't know how he's not going to
be an everyday player it's a bad roster at first base and he's probably going to hit cleanup behind
jose ramirez commons are to had 27 homers last season somehow he only had 47 runs which is
kind of bonkers, but I don't know. I think Calamonardo, the batting average is going to be pretty
poor, but I think we could look up at the end of the season and say there is basically no
difference between him and Spencer Torkelson, who's going a decent amount ahead of him in draft.
So I like Cal Manzardo a lot in a corner infielder, but the way I have it ranked, I have
him 15th among like actual first basements, so not including Salvador Perez and Ben Rice.
Like, if that's my starter in a 15-team league,
I feel okay about it.
You know, like, if I really wait, I can live with that.
They're called last resort for a reason.
Yeah, it's like, you know.
They're just, he's a decent bat for 30 homers this year, I think.
Yeah.
No, I think it's a good point about playing against lefties, too.
It's something that people should consider.
You shouldn't just assume every left-handed hitter is going to be a platoon bat.
if you just pull up Rossal resource or any depth chart really you could just kind of figure things out like
there are a lot of lefties in this guardians lineup and a lot of them are not proven and might not be good
they cannot platoon every single lefty in their lineup it's just you know you the math doesn't math
so you run out of names at some point and I think there is a good chance that um that comanzardo
plays against lefties yeah so who because minzardo did platoon a lot last year yeah um um um um
And so that's the first thing I look at is like, I don't trust them not the platoon unless they've shown their willing not to platoon them.
Yeah, at the end of the season, they were starting him pretty regularly against lefties.
It wasn't a huge sample size, but he basically didn't start against any lefties from like May until September.
But then I think it was like four of the final six games against lefties he started.
As of now, they have George Valera and C.J. Kathis in their starting lineup.
and those guys are much less proven at the Major League level
than Manzardo even is at this point.
And even Chase the Water is in this lineup too.
And any of those three could be platoon options.
You just, again, you run in the names.
You can't put in a lot of lefties right now.
Yeah.
And look, I wonder if they're done with their bench
because it's pretty bad.
Yeah.
It's pretty bad.
It's not a great roster there.
The leftover's tier includes 13 names.
I'm not going to read all those off.
once Scott's first base tier is on the website
you can check all those out yourself
but it's mostly late round
flyer names you know
names you would like as a deep league corner infielder time
by the way it was seven final
10 lefties that the guardians faced
comments are started so I
I saw some people in the chat asking about
Josh Bell he's in the leftovers tier
Andrew Vaughan yep
you got Jake Berger in here
so these are Vaughan is kind of Jake Burger
as a deep deep
flyer this year and standard
size leagues, these guys, you probably don't even need to think about.
You know, a couple might get drafted on the bench and a 12-team Roto League, 15-team Roto League.
Okay, probably most of them get drafted somewhere.
But not that many people play in 15-team Roto leagues.
Yeah.
Entering the off-season, I kind of assume that the Brewers would be in on someone like a
Ryan O'Hern or something like that, but they haven't really brought anyone in.
And Andrew Vaughn was really good for them after he went over to the,
team. He hit the ball really hard and they
kind of unlocked something. So I am
a little intrigued in a deeper league
by Andrew Vaughn this upcoming season.
Let's take our final break. When we return,
we'll get into third base tiers. We'll probably
run a little bit longer here. We had all that news to talk about,
but we will get to that right after
this. Welcome back in
Fantasy baseball today. Let's get into
Scott's third base tiers for
2026. And what do you know?
A first round tier.
That is Jose Ramirez.
His ADP in January is 5.5.
Yes, he's 33 years old.
No, it does not matter.
He remains elite.
He's one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy baseball.
He has finished as a top six player overall in four of the past five seasons,
back to back, 30, 40 seasons, and he is extremely adorable, Scott.
So I don't know if you have anything else to add.
Very clearly should be a top five or six pick in all drafts, Jose Ramirez.
Yeah, so I have this first rounders tier at some positions and not others.
and really it's a way to signal that you should not take from any position without a first-rounder tier until all the first-rounders are gone.
So the tiers that have the first-rounders tier at the top, you know, all those players need to be gone before you take from a position without a first-rounder's tier at the top, such as first base.
You know, you're obviously not going to even think about taking Vladimir Guerrero or Nick Kurt.
until Jose Ramirez in this case is gone.
Let's get into the elite tier.
That is Junior Caminero.
And Jazz Chisholm.
Both are second rounders in ADP, Camerro at 15, Jazz at 21.
Yes, Jazz expected to play second base for the Yankees,
but still has third base eligibility from last year.
Our consensus roto rankings, we have Camerro at 18, Jazz at 22,
and Consensus Head Head-T points rankings.
We have Camerero at 21.
and Jazz at 23.
So Caminero ahead in both.
The same questions remain that I have for Camerro
and maybe they're foolish ones,
but just him going back into the trap,
is it going to affect his offensive production at all?
Maybe it's a dumb question.
He's young, he's amazing.
No, it's a totally fair question.
Worry about that.
I just, the way that you guys spoke about,
like Kurtz and Vlad earlier,
that's how I feel about Camerro.
I just feel like he's worthy of being a second round pick,
but I just don't think that,
I will use my second round pick on him.
No, I think I mostly agree with that.
I think he's a really good hitter.
And there's a chance that he emerges in 2026 as just straight up one of the best all-around hitters in baseball.
But you probably don't expect any hitter except Aaron Judge and Shohei Otani to hit 45 homers every year.
So there's room for regression there.
last year his expected homers were 39 so you're already you know just looking at from if everything's the
same you probably expect him to be more of a 35 to 40 homer guy than a 45 homer guy and he wasn't a great
batting average guy and there's not like stuff in the underlying numbers that suggest it was bad luck he
mostly earned his batting average he hits a lot of ground balls he hits a lot of like unhelpful unproductive
fly balls in addition to hitting a lot of really, really productive fly balls.
He's a hitter of some extremes.
And I've made the comp to Marcelo Zuna several times before.
Their swings remind me a lot of each other.
And Marcelo Zuna went through a lot of ups and downs early on in his career.
It looked like a superstar at one point, I believe got sent back down to the minors at
another point.
Not going to happen with Camerro.
But do I think he's definitely just a 35 to 40 home?
guy forever? Not necessarily. And then you add on the Tropicana field of it all, which is not
a guarantee to hurt him. That's the thing about Tropicana field is it is not like San Francisco
where you can say confidently that most lefties are going to struggle in San Francisco.
Tropicana just affects different players differently. Different guys have different skill sets,
different weaknesses.
Some guys can't see the ball in Tropicana.
We just don't know how Tropicana field will impact Junior Kermanero.
So I rank him more or less where he's going.
I do expect him to be very good.
Not necessarily a player I look at at a top 15 ADP right now,
14.9 in the month of January,
and say, yeah, he's going to be on a bunch of my teams.
So let me try to contextualize this further because I hear you guys both saying a lot.
I don't really want Junior Combinero in round two.
I don't really want Nick Kurtz in round two or Vladimir Guerrero or Cal Rale.
But who are you actually moving ahead of them?
Okay, Francisco, Lindor, Gunner Henderson, I think it's an easy yes to both of them.
I'm probably yes, at least to Lindor.
But, you know, are you going Jackson Churio ahead of Junior Cominero?
I think that one largely depends on what my first round pick looked like.
In Roto, I would take Trio.
That's one where you might have Aaron Judge.
Are you going Trey Turner over Junior Common Arrow?
That's a maybe for me.
I have Turner behind all three.
I have more like a late second rounder.
But I have...
Because he's actually a third rounder on...
FPC, Trey Turner is the 26th player drafted on average.
I have Kyle Tucker ahead of them.
Yeah, so do I. I have Todd Tucker.
I mean, I have Kyle Tucker sixth overall.
Right, but Kyle Tucker, I think.
But Cal Tucker's ADP, but I had him before he got to the Dodgers.
Me too.
I had him as a first rounder before then, but I think everybody's going to have him as a first
rounder now.
Yeah.
In Roto, I have Tatees, Torio, and Jazz just ahead of Raleigh, Vlad, Camerro, Kurtz.
so just leaning more into like the power speed types
than just like the pure great batting average
well not with Raleigh's case but you know
the big power hitting guys I guess in the second round so
yeah I mean look it's a fair point that
even if you don't love a player's price
at some point you can't there just aren't
enough guys to move below or above them right like
right I get the point you're making like I'm not going to jump
Zach Netto ahead of those guys like if I have a mid to late
second round pick
all the, like, Tatease and Jazz, those guys are all, like, yeah, I would probably just take one of, one of those names like Kurtz or Caminero if they're there.
But I imagine in a lot of leagues, people are really excited to draft those guys, and they're probably going to go more like early second round picks.
Yeah, I mean, Trey Turner, the fact you'd consider, at least Chris said he'd consider taking Trey Turner over Junior Cominero, I think, I think he's pretty telling.
So it would really have to be he almost is slipping out of the second round, Junior Cominero, for you to take him, Chris.
and I imagine you feel the same way,
maybe even more so about Nick Kurtz.
More so about Nick Kurtz, yes.
Yeah.
The near elite tier at third base,
we have Mani Machado, Austin Riley,
Ehio-Swarres, and Mikel Garcia.
So this is a pretty big ADP range.
We have Machado all the way up at 35
and Suarez all the way down at 112.
I think people are guarding against Suarez
going back to the Mariners as of now
just because he remains a free agent.
We don't know where he's going to play
and him going back to Seattle.
feels like it would be pretty disastrous for his fantasy value.
So this could change a lot.
Like if Suarez goes to Boston, maybe he's like a top 80 pick.
And if he goes to Seattle, maybe he's around 175 or something like that.
Yeah, I don't think he's in the top of 150.
Yeah, I think his value could still kind of move a lot here.
Scott, similar to what we said about Pete Alonzo earlier,
based on you ranking Machado in this tier and him going so far ahead of the other names,
you're probably not winding up with a lot of Machado.
out of this season?
Yeah, probably not.
And, you know, I come out with probably four additions of the tiers, three at least.
So, you know, next week these tiers, tiers 1.0 will come out.
And there will be at least be a 3.0.
And of course, as I draft more as I actually see how my teams are coming together using the
tiers, then I massage the tears.
And so it's possible if I'm always ending up with Michael Garcia and never having a chance at Manny Machado at a price that I think is reasonable.
I could see myself moving Manny Machado up to the same tier as Junior Common Air or Jazz Chisholm.
My auction values don't support it right now.
And part of that is because I think I rank Austin Riley a lot higher than the consensus.
Homer.
So, you know, I don't see a huge difference in value between Bichato and Riley, especially since Machado's kind of experienced his own decline in recent years.
It is now more of like a 25 homer guy than a 30 homer guy.
So I'm fine missing out on Machado if I get Riley or if I get Suarez and he's signed somewhere other than Seattle.
Obviously, Seattle will change things.
Yeah, I guess right now I'm fine with I'm probably not going to draft Machado
because I have enough faith in those other two being a really good value relative to what I think they can do statistically.
In the few drafts that I've done so far, I have found myself very interested in this tier at third base.
Either Riley or Garcia, Riley, the ADP 71, Garcia, 75.
Very different skill sets.
You know, Riley, it's mostly power and RBI and, you know, a bad.
average that doesn't kill you and Michael Garcia you know it's not nearly as much power and
it's a lot more steals and it should be you know pretty good batting average and probably a lot of
run score too so very different players but uh I like both of them quite a bit at their current cost and
have found myself kind of dipping into this tier a lot so far and I think those two players and and
really you know Ther Suarez in there um if you want as well I think really highlight the advantage of tiers
versus ordinal rankings,
which is just the rankings that we put on the website
of 300 players in order or whatever,
because you're also reaching a point,
they're both going, what, around 70?
Yeah, right around 70 in your drafts,
where the difference between whether you should draft Austin Riley
or Michael Garcia in the sixth round
is probably going to come down to who did you draft before.
You know, if you don't have anyone who can steal bases,
drafting Austin Riley there might be a mistake because you might be building on strengths that you already have and further compounding weaknesses.
But, you know, if you took Trey Turner in the second or third round, you might need the 35 homer upside that Austin Riley brings to the table.
So that's just to highlight the benefits of tiers versus rankings, which honestly, I know rankings are like a big deal and it's the content everyone consumes and we all love it.
It's not actually like a particularly helpful way to go about drafting or thinking about fantasy sports.
Which is why I came out with the tears.
And I know I kind of didn't finish the story at the top of the show when I was explaining it.
Like I came on to the CBS staff in 2007.
I started writing about baseball in 2008.
I published a multi-column series about this tiers approach to drafting.
and it got a lot of attention within the industry.
And now, 18 years later, it's just an industry staple.
Most every site or publication puts out some form of tiered rankings
as opposed to just the regular one.
And I like to feel like I had a hand of bringing that about.
And I do think it is a much more appropriate way
to think of valuing players and drafts versus just,
oh, this guy's 17th and this guy's 18th,
so I got to have the 17th guy.
when really they're about the same
and so is the guy you rank 24th, you know?
So yeah, I think that's...
I think I'm glad we got into that a little more.
Let's get into the next best things tier at third base.
Esauk Paredes, Alex Bregman and Max Muncie,
both Bregman and Muncie,
one tier lower in Roto slash categories,
which would make this a one-man tier
with Esoc Paredes basically.
And it's just a weird tier for me, Scott.
I like Paredes.
I like the skill set.
He basically did what we wanted him to do last season while he was healthy.
But where is everybody playing in Houston right now?
I mean, that still needs to be figured out.
Right now, I just don't know how everything works.
Me personally, it sounds like you too, Scott,
not as interested in Bregman in Chicago.
And then Muncie's skill set,
it's still great on a per game basis for a points league.
It's awesome.
But he doesn't play against lefties,
or he didn't play against every lefty last year.
So it's like, yes, he's good on a per game basis.
he gets on base and things like that in a points league
but you also need volume and he doesn't play every day
so I just find this here really weird
yeah and I initially had Max Muncie
ranked a lot higher because I just overlooked
how much he sat against lefties
as good as he was and I know for most of
his Dodgers career he hasn't been somebody they've platooned
I don't know I just I just assumed hey glasses on
he's killing it again surely he's an everyday player
I had to go back and look at the game log
oh no it was sitting a lot against lefties
especially at the end of the year.
And maybe he won't moving forward,
but at his age,
I think it's better to play it safe anyway.
So I have him four points leagues in this next best things tier.
But, you know, in Roto,
where you don't get the boost from the on-base skills months he has,
he drops to the fallback options.
Although even in points leagues,
those days off are tough to overcome.
Yeah.
As good as he is on a per-game basis.
Which is why he's only.
next best things in a points league because if he's an everyday player he's borderline elite in points
leagues honestly yeah um but you know he's not so this is where he is and in a points league my
third basement is probably going to come from this tier i think paredes is one of the most
underrated players in the draft pool again for the second straight year like we saw it worked in
houston i think it's just barely gone up from last year yeah i think it's just because of that report
this offseason where they were kind of funny about his recovery from the hamstring.
Oh, he might, I forget exactly how they put it.
But there was a resource has him not starting right now, which I just, I can't see.
But how?
He's going to start.
But where?
I mean, I just got to, like, they're not going to play Alvarez in the outfield coming off all these
injuries.
Right, but they're really just going to play Christian Walker ahead of him.
I mean, the contract would say that.
feel right but like the astros are a smart team they're not going to run out christian walker if you
can't hit i like parades i want to be in with you guys i was in last year i just i just don't see
it right now i just i don't know i think they need to make a trade and i think that but like i i just
cannot imagine if they go into the season with this roster that christian walker's starting every day
against over he's he's a prer maybe it's just a problem because hezok paratus doesn't walker walker was good
in the second half. He was basically
himself. Walker was good in the second half.
He was better than he was in the first half.
But 35,
Isaac Paredes was better.
Yeah.
It just,
I mean,
it's fair to ask.
I don't,
I don't think it's realistic,
but they,
they haven't made clear what they plan to do.
I know they've made clear they,
they plan to have a spot for Paredes.
They just haven't really said what it's going to be.
Are we sure Jose Al-Tube can't handle left field?
Alv they,
right.
Well, we know Altuve can handle left field.
Paredes has played second base.
Carlos Correa could certainly play second base.
They could play Jordan Alvarez and left field some.
I don't know.
I just think they're going to mix and match.
They're going to figure out a way to make it work.
They have enough versatility there that Paredes is going to get playing time.
But you're right.
It may be serving beyond just the hamstring recovery.
It may be serving to suppress Paredes value further that people look at the lineup.
And they're like, yeah, there doesn't seem to be a spot for him.
I just they'll figure it out.
And I think it's reasonable to keep his price down.
Like there's some risk there.
Yeah.
But man,
if Isak Pradesh was just an everyday player,
I mean,
top 125,
right?
I was just going to say he's,
he would go around 125,
at least in my mind.
So I think there's enough of a discount here.
Because Houston is the perfect spot for Isok Pratis's swing.
And we saw it,
we have proof of concept.
It went for the time he was healthy last year.
It went exactly as many of us hoped it would.
I said he'd be just as good as Alex Breggman,
Alex Breggman's last couple years in Houston,
and he was just as good as Alex Breggman's last couple of years at Houston.
But we should also not forget.
He had a 31-home-or-90-R-Bi season in Tampa Bay.
Tampa has very short fences in left field,
but he could get traded somewhere else and still be worth using.
I don't think they trade him.
I think they know exactly how he'd be really a bad idea.
suits their part, that well suited he is for their park, and they hold on to him.
One of the teams that has been rumored is Boston.
That'd be awesome.
It's not as good as Houston for his swing, but it is 1A, 1B.
It would still be a very, very good landing spot if Parades wound up in Boston.
The fallback options at third base, just two names here, Jordan Westberg and Matt Chapman.
If I miss out on Riley or Garcia, who again, I have been targeting earlier on in drafts,
I've been winding up with a lot of Matt Chapman.
It's not a sexy pick, I get that.
But he's just solid all around.
I liked Westberg a lot as a breakout candidate last year.
I'm still kind of in, but I am worried about his health.
He just has not been able to stay healthy so far in his career.
So I do worry about that, but Chapman kind of feels like, you know,
the tier calls it.
It's got a totally fine fallback option.
Yeah, I could see for Roto,
only putting Westberg in the higher tier.
I'm kind of lukewarm on them at this point.
And definitely wouldn't do it in points at least because his plate discipline isn't good enough.
So it would be for one format only that you would tier Westberg alongside Perettas.
In fact, I may go ahead and do that.
Looking at this now, for Roto, I like Westberg more in the same tier as Perettas than the same tier as Chapman.
But.
The fallback option.
Yeah, I mean, Chapman's fine.
He's fine. That's what a fallback option should be.
Like, you can live with this guy as your starter.
He's just not likely to be much more than fine.
Yeah.
I think he's totally fine in deeper leagues,
even 12-team Roto or just 15-team leagues where you just want solid production across the board.
I mean, to me, that's Matt Chapman.
His batting average won't be good, but, you know, 20 to 25 homers,
10 steals, good counting stats he's going to play every day.
That just feels like Matt Chapman.
The last resorts tier, we have Noelvi Marte, Royce Lewis, and Cosima Okamoto.
And Scott, similar to the first base last resorts tier, this point feels like corner infielders.
And all pretty intriguing options in Marte, Lewis, and Okamoto.
They're interesting, for sure.
My expectation for Akamoto actually is that he performs more like, I mean, he might end.
being just as good as Breckman, maybe even better.
Like, I could see him, my expectations of him may be a tier or too higher than this,
but I know that's, if I tear him that high, then it's, I'm going to be drafting him way earlier than I need to.
But I have, I have a feeling given how productive he was in Japan and, and like, the exit velocities are quality too.
Given how productive he was in a league right now that is just,
it is just such an oppressive offensive environment,
and his numbers are bonkers with a good strikeout rate,
unlike,
unlike, for instance,
Mutantaka Murakami,
who has major swing and miss issues.
I'm not sure he's going to work out at all.
More power than Acomoto,
but I think Acomoto's power has been overshadowed
because Murakami's is just like next level, you know?
And he doesn't,
it's nowhere close to the raw power.
Right.
His swing is geared towards tapping in.
Over the past two seasons,
over the past two seasons in Japan,
he had the highest combined pulled air rate
over the past two years span.
So to your point, Scott,
like we just spoke about Bregman and Paredes.
Okamoto is another name that's like that.
He has a very similar swing
where he pulls a lot of his fly balls in the air
and should be able to get to his power because of that.
And that's kind of my expectation.
I wrote him up in Sleepers 1.0.
I kind of think he can hit.
to 250, 260, like 25-ish home runs right away.
I think that's close to a realistic outcome for Okamoto.
I think he's in my sleepers also.
I'm going to be the last to right sleepers.
But yeah, we may all have Okamoto in there.
Who knows?
Maybe by the end of draft season,
I'll have to move him up in the tiers
because we've talked to everybody into taking him sooner.
I want to point two things out.
One, I think Noelvi-Marté is being overdrafted.
His ADP is like 135 or something.
It just, I can't get, I might have gone there.
But yeah, that's a high, that's a high.
It's a high price to pay for a guy who was really bad in September and really only has like a month and a half at the major league level where he was good.
He was good all of last season until September.
Right.
I'm not writing him off, but it's like 250 plate appearances and then 100 or so in September where he was like 30 plus percent strike.
got right bad. And then Royce Lewis, I don't know what to make of the fact that he went 130
games between the end of 2023 and the first half of 2025 without stealing a base. I don't think
he even attempted a stolen base. And then Royce Lewis stole 12 bases in the second half of last season.
I have no idea of what to make of that. It makes his path to fantasy relevance a little easier to figure
out though because now he doesn't you know when he was just a hitter he had to hit really really
well if he can be a 15 stolen base guy it takes a lot of the pressure off the bat and and he can be
you know more of like a 245 250 with 20 homers guy and still have some value it's just i don't even know if
he's that after the scene just had he had a 671 ops slug 388 underling numbers were bad too
second straight year with a batting average in a
230s and an OBP below 300.
So it's weird because at the start of his career
between all those injuries,
Royce Lewis looked like, you know,
middle of the order bat.
Like he could do no wrong as a hitter.
And then it just disappeared in 2024,
in the second half of 2024.
And it didn't return all of last year.
So yeah, and then there was the stolen base increase.
So no idea what Royce Lewis is at this point.
but some reason for optimism.
No idea really what Noel V. Marte is at this point.
But I think decent reason for optimism.
No idea who Okamoto is going to be in the majors.
But I think a lot of reason for optimism.
And so that's how you get this last resort.
I think tearing all these guys together makes sense.
But when they're actually being drafted, Marte is 131.
Okamoto's 239.
And Royce Lewis is 179.
So right in between wide range of how comes there and.
Yes.
The leftovers tier, there are 22 names here.
I will spare you.
I will not read them off.
You don't have to give me any analysis,
but is there one or two names that you like here
as kind of a deeply corner infielder
in the leftover's third base tier?
I mean, Brett Beatty, if he plays enough.
I agree.
We didn't bring it up with the Louis Robert acquisition,
but I guess there's still left field
is a possibility for Beatty if Carson Binge, they decided he isn't ready.
But, you know, previously binge could have theoretically played center.
And Bady left, and now that possibility is foreclosed.
I know he crashed and burned to end the season.
I still like Addison Barger.
He hits the ball hard, and he actually bounced back in the postseason.
He was really good in the playoffs.
So I still like Addison Barger, man.
I'm intrigued by his skills.
I think there's plenty of interesting names here.
I could see a bounce back from Josh Young and Mark Vientos.
Brett Beatty showed some good stuff last year.
Miguel Vargas is not totally disinteresting.
He could be a 20 homer guy.
Agreed.
I know people laugh at me.
I keep bringing up his name.
I think Nolan Gorman can hit 30 home runs.
I think he could hit 30 homers.
I just think he might destroy everything else about your team.
That's true.
Connor Norby, I saw some like swing change stuff.
So that'll be something to keep an eye on.
He showed some upside in 2024.
Marcelo Meyer is just a forgotten guy.
I don't know if he's going to play every day for the Red Sox, but he was a top.
Right now he's in line too.
He was a top, what, 30-ish prospect last season?
He's had a lot of trouble staying healthy, but let's not forget that name.
And then Jordan Lawler, I don't know if the Diamondbacks like him, but hopefully he gets a chance.
I don't know.
And then, hey, Willie Castro signed with the Rocky.
Yeah. And only leagues, 15 team roto leagues. You know, can he hit 260 with 20 seals? That's not crazy. We'll see. We are going to wrap there for Scott, Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.
