Fantasy Baseball Today - 2026 Pitcher Strategy, Targets & Fades w/ Nick Pollack! (1/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: January 6, 2026Welcome back, Nick Pollack (2:30)! ... What were the pitcher themes from 2025 (4:40)? ... Are there any specific pitches that could be more popular in 2026 (9:30)? ... How should we account for injury... risk among pitchers (13:13)? ... To draft or not to draft Yoshinobu Yamamoto (20:14)? ... Who should be drafted as the SP4 (25:22)? ... Buy the Kyle Bradish hype (27:14). ... Fade Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow (34:15)? ... Are Spencer Strider and Nolan McLean overvalued (39:03)? ... News (49:32): Tyler Mahle signed a one-year deal with the Giants. ... Buy Ryan Pepiot and Drew Rasmussen (54:47)! ... What's Shane Baz's outlook (57:55)? ... Let's rank the young pitchers (1:00:15). ... Connelly Early is dope (1:05:15)! Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
And first pitch, watching.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Hey there, happy new year.
Welcome into fantasy baseball today.
And welcome to 2026.
It still, and is going to take a while, sounds weird to say that number.
Today is Tuesday, January 6th when you are listening.
I am Frank Sample, joined by Chris Towers and a special guest,
The Man Behind Picture List, newly married, I will add.
Welcome to the show, Nick Pollack.
What's up, Nick?
What is happening?
I think I actually asked for my wedding gift that Frank not do that anymore,
or make it so that Chris always says Frank Stample that way.
I don't know which one I'm going to get.
It's definitely not.
Actually, you know what?
That reminds me.
I need to get your address.
My wife and I forgot to bring a card to the wedding where those people are.
Chris.
So I do need to.
Yeah, I know.
Yeah.
No, I got to say, what a man you are to come on to this show, this absurdly popular show and admit that to the world.
It's a bad.
It's a bad look.
I'm not happy about it.
I honestly didn't notice.
And I'm just so happy that both of you were there.
Thank you so much for inviting me.
And there are many favorite parts of that wedding.
But I think it was the moment I realized that there were only two people at that wedding
wearing a red corduroy suit.
And that was Frank Sample and Alex Fast.
There was another guy in like a green velvet suit.
And I was really disappointed that we didn't get a picture of all three in together.
Because it was right before Christmas.
Oh, yeah.
It would have been really thematically.
But yeah, no, I will say my wife's job is remembering things.
So I'm going to throw her under the bus on that.
Oh, wow.
Nobody takes me seriously.
So I'm not asked to remember things.
It's the nice thing about being a ridiculous person.
Everybody watching, listening, you know Nick Pollock.
You know him, you love him.
He's been on here many times before.
Make sure to follow him on X at Pitcherless and make sure to check out Pitcherlist.com.
Nick, what else do you have going on right now?
Is there anything you'd like to promote before we jump in and get this going?
It is January, which means I have a lot of work to do.
And I will be doing all my work live on Twitch at Twitch.
Twitch.tv slash pitcher list.
8 a.m. in the morning pretty much throughout the entire day as I break down every single
team's starting pitchers for the year.
And I create my top 400 that's going to come out in February.
So tune on in.
You can ask all the questions you want.
8 a.m. Eastern time every weekday morning.
Twitch.combe slash pitcher list.
See you there.
Today on the show, if you haven't figured it out, we're talking pitching.
So we've got general thoughts.
We are taking a look at some of the pitchers that Nick likes more than others, maybe
some that he's fading. We've got some smaller signing still not that much going on like
Tyler Malley to the Giants, whatever. We'll talk about it. Let's start with some of those general
pitching questions. And Nick, was there a general theme or anything big picture from this past
season in 2025, the pitching landscape that maybe shapes how you rank or think about pitchers in
2026? I feel like every year there's a new lesson, but we forget that lesson the next year.
And I would say the thing I'm really focusing on this season is about how to actually understand what upside is.
I've considered upside 25% plus strikeout rate, right?
Being a regular member of a rotation.
But in actuality, if you really were chasing upside last season, it would have been the volume guys.
It would have been the guys I talk about as Toby's typically.
But Matthew bullied with the Cubs, Merrill Kelly, and even Seth Lugo before he had the back problems later on.
Nathan Avaldi?
Cameron.
Crazy.
It's,
those guys are doing 170 plus
innings of quality ratios
and thus they provide
the strikeouts along the way
with wins.
And I'm realizing that that
has been a fault
in my approach
over the years
where I've only really
considered it as upside
for your, I mean,
this year's,
I don't know,
Connolly Early
and Troy Melton types
and your Tray Savage
and your young ones
who are going to be
the exciting thing.
But I think about
Jackson Joe,
year, not so fun. It was really hard for us to understand what to do with it. But these veteran
pitchers who are going 90 plus pitches out of the gate, yeah, there's a lot of value in
that. So I'm really trying to make a whole approach about wishcasting as little as possible
and getting as much good volume as I can. And what's crazy about that, Nick, is a lot of times
the deeper the league that I play in, the more I will target pitchers like that. And maybe it shouldn't
just be that way. Maybe it should be in 12 team leagues and head to points leagues where volume
actually matters so much. It's always been, all right, if I play in a 15 teamer, ALNL only,
you know, I kind of want some of these safe boring guys, high floor pitchers, things like that.
But you're right. Perhaps we need to kind of reshape how we think about some of those
boring veteran types. And it's also the fact that, I mean, a lot of those, yeah, they're boring and
you might not realize at the end, whoa, this guy had a really good season.
though it's the same approach of you go for it
and you see if everything is checking out okay, right?
It's not saying that cool, you just draft Merrill Kelly,
you know you're going to get that.
No, possibly he has a worst year and he has a 4-year-A
and a 125 whip the first time having a whip over 120 since,
I don't know, 2021 or something like that.
And yeah, you're going to likely get off that shift, though.
What happens more off than not is like you get in the jack lighter train
and you don't know what to do, and it's not nearly enough.
It's not pushing the needle in the way that you want,
and you don't know what to do with it.
You feel like you can't let go of that guy.
While I feel as if you're more capable of letting go of that kind of Toby type,
you feel like, ah, whatever, there's another guy like that I'll be able to get instead.
I definitely feel like the hanging on to, like the Jackson Job kind of bridge to nowhere pitchers
have been a real Achilles heel for me in recent years.
I think Roki Sasaki was that for a lot of people last season,
just a total roster clogger where you know there's upside,
or at least you think you know there's upside because they're young
and they throw hard and they have good stuff plus ratings and all this stuff.
But you do reach a point with a guy like that where,
especially if you invest a lot, if you pick them 220th overall, it's like,
who cares?
Exactly.
Well, that's, yeah, that's a whole other conversation.
People.
But when it's 100,
like Sasaki was last year, you're kind of, you end up stuck.
You end up kind of in limbo with these guys because what you don't want to happen is you drop
them a month later, they're healthy, they figure it out, and they're on someone else's team.
And it ends up being a kind of a limbo of sorts for fantasy.
You want to live in Park Slope where people are settling down and they're comfortable and it's
nice, you know what you're going to get.
and you don't want to live in Williamsburg
where there are hipsters,
headache-inducing pitchers
stifling the entire roster.
There you go.
Yeah, the hipsters all got pushed,
moved out to Bushwick, by the way.
Yeah, I know.
We are got priced out, yeah.
Update from Chris, live,
live in action right now.
Ridgewood, if you're really hip.
Oh, my gosh.
Which is crazy because my family
still owns the house there,
the house I grew up in,
which is now being infiltrated
by hipsters.
I mean, you know what?
Raises the property values.
You went to Jersey, Frank.
You can't believe it.
I got out.
You left the state.
I got out.
Can't believe it, Frank.
I had to get out.
I want to ask you about specific pitch types, Nick.
Is there anything that you see on the horizon, right?
You know, a handful of years ago, the introduction of the sweeper or perhaps, you know,
changing of the name of pitches, whatever it might be.
Everyone loses their mind, by the way, about sweepers.
But, you know, we've heard more about, like, Vulcan changeups.
And, you know, obviously there were so many.
The kick change.
The splitter was thrown a ton during the postseason.
I think that was mostly personnel related.
Obviously, we had a bunch of splitter pitchers who went deep, Yamamoto and Gosman and Trey
and Savage, guys like that.
Is there a specific pitch that you see could be a theme of 2026 that everyone's talking about?
Well, it's not going to be the Vulcan.
And it's a very easy reason why it's not going to be the Vulcan because how you throw it.
It's really hard to grip.
Is you, well, right.
It is.
Okay.
So you do the Vulcan thing.
You stick the baseball in there.
And there's no way.
way this is consistent. Yeah. I mean, look, Chris Paddock had one, right? I think he still kind of
throws that as Jonah Tong now too. There's maybe one or two other guys that are popularizing it.
I read Tetsuya, I might throw one. Yeah, I mean, look, it's, I used to throw this, which is a,
in my splier was kind of like a fork ball. The more gap you have in between the ball and your
palm, the more fork it gets. The more goes in, the more split it gets. So that means like a fork
is more of a loop like a curve while the split is more of just a fade like a like a circle change
in that way.
And I think in general that splitters as a reliable number two is a really, really tough thing
to do because you're not finding a seam on the ball.
You're jamming this thing into your hand, which innately makes it less consistent.
And they're more volatile as pitchers.
Tray Savage is a little interesting because his slider is the number three.
But there's really number two because he uses it more against righty.
so it's a little bit better.
And then the slider,
splier's number three,
and that's fine.
But as far as one pitch,
no,
no, I think we're kind of past it now.
It was the year of the splitter,
but really it was a year of the cutter.
Thank you so much that we all acknowledge that now.
And I think Brazowski said it really well of,
it's a year of the Arsenal.
I think, you know what I was saying that to last season
while people were expanding it
and understanding that against righties,
you generally want to have a four seamer
and a breaking ball away
and maybe a sinker inside while lefties,
you generally want that.
that cutter and that change of that kind of thing, or again, that four seamer.
If there's one pitch, I would probably say the sinker returning more.
The sinker went from being the thing to then four seamers being the thing.
And now sinkers are making a little bit of return, understanding that the same-handed batter is going inside.
It's really good.
I'm seeing more and more lefties recognizing that to help with their bad foreseemers,
essentially.
And I think we're going to keep seeing that trend.
I feel like it's, we used to have a joke, this is going back a decade now when Heath Cummings was on the show.
The Heath's Nips was what we called it, the no intentional position strategy.
And I feel like we're kind of there with the no intentional pitch strategy.
That's not actually the case because it's, I think where pitchers are becoming much more intentional about what they throw and when they throw it.
It's like every single pitching prospect, especially I feel like that I read about is like,
he's got a very distinct approach versus lefties and righties everybody now and like 15 years ago
I feel like it got most pitchers just kind of threw the same thing to everyone and it was just
was your stuff good enough or not and we're where MLB teams are min-maxing a lot more in that
regard and absolutely it's probably I think I think helped you know some of these like fringier talents
like Matthew Boyd find find a little more success
we know pitcher injuries are quite unpredictable and they happen very often. Prior to last year,
Logan Gilbert and Corbyn Burns, two names we would have considered, quote unquote, safest pitchers
year in and year out. How do you account for injury risk when ranking pitchers? So we just
rank based on talent? I had this idea from last year and you could correct me if I'm wrong,
that you were just very much so like, hey, injuries are hard to predict. Let's just draft the most talented guys.
Yeah, you're not wrong in that regard of I was certainly throwing it more into the wind last year.
And I don't, I feel in that case it was actually very good.
Chris Sale and Jacob de Grom were guys that got major injury dings.
Garrett Crochet, you were really aggressive on him.
I had, I think I met it two last year.
I haven't met one right now.
And that doesn't matter, I'll be honest with you.
Because I don't encourage you to draft the pitcher in the first four rounds of your fantasy baseball draft.
the 12 teamers. And I understand that many people have the idea of I need one anchor and then I go on.
The thing is that one anchor, oh boy, you better be right. And I hate what I'm about to do, guys.
I absolutely detest myself. But it's the same thing as saying my whole pitching staff is going to be
be just reliant on the first round my fantasy football draft. And oh boy, you have no idea
who's actually going to be that good because it's really.
ridiculous. It's like half of the guys are terrible and half of them are not. And it's that way with pitching too. You look at a lot of the top 10 guys. Some of them just get hurt. Some of them are that rock. But it's not the way I would go. I think hitters are much more reliable than pitchers are. And then when you get to the fifth, six, seventh rounds, you actually will be able to find a lot of talented guys are not very far off from those rocks. And the gap between the hitters in the second round versus the hitters in the fifth. And then you look at it with pitchers, the same.
same way.
Hitters are just far above in the second round than their fifth round counterparts.
So the one thing I will say is I've done some research on this and it's influenced my
approach.
And the thought process behind the anchor pitching idea would be.
And it didn't work out as great last year.
So I've been, you know, I'm looking forward to diving in and seeing what was different about
the player pool last year.
But historically, you know, the 10 years or so that I've been looking into.
this it's been and it's actually very true running backs as well ironically oh no what have I
done is the run the the the starting pitchers taken historically in the first and second round really
like the guys who get pushed up that way tend to be not as good a return as the hitters in that
round but as close as you can get pitchers are just worse draft picks than hitters like just
if you compare every single point in the draft the hitter is going to be more valuable than
the pitcher. That's just the way it's going to work on average. The problem is it's those guys from
the third, fourth, fifth, sixth rounds who actually aren't any better historically than the guys in
the 10th, 11th, 12th rounds. I mean, they're a little better, but on the whole, on average,
it's that second tier of pitchers, and this is the RB Dead Zone. I've called it the RSP dead zone.
that second tier of pitchers tend to be just kind of complete guesswork.
And it's because I think you have those guys go in the first round.
I think we're seeing this a little bit this year where those guys go in the first round.
I don't think anybody else after those first three should go for three or four more round,
three more rounds probably.
Well, I mean, that won't happen.
But I because the one wants to feel like they need that anchor or so.
but I'm with you that there is that chasm between the main three, of course, crochet, skein's school.
Yeah, we should probably say that.
And everyone else.
Yeah.
But like now you have Yamamoto, I think, is the clearest example of this.
Getting pushed into the second round where I like Yamamoto.
He's a good pitcher.
But I just can't like we're just, it's, I think what's happening is, well, a pitcher's got to go there.
I know.
I know.
This is, okay.
And so, well, he's the one.
So we'll just push him around ahead of everyone else.
And it just doesn't make any sense.
I'm sorry to interrupt you.
I apologize for that, Chris.
I'm going to, I don't want to waste breath on this because the top 10 pitchers or so.
Because it's not really the way to be successful in this.
What do you guys think is the number 4 SP and the one you want to get in the fourth round, fifth round?
Go ahead.
Do that.
I'll get, you know, I'll have my writing about those.
But I'm not drafting them.
And I think the way.
to manage this, exactly what you're talking about this problem, is to not jump instead to look at
where the chasm is for the hitters and when it stops.
And then just go and then completely do what you turn and then get as many of the rest of the
pitchers that you can because, yes, there will be many that go 180 plus innings of quality.
And that's it.
And there you go.
You just get as many of those as you can and you'll be fine.
Like, that's the way you manage that.
And if you want to take Yalamoto forth,
I'm not going to say that because he's on a six-man rotation.
And that means he's a cap ceiling.
And how can you possibly have someone with such a cap ceiling as yes before?
That's why he didn't do it.
But it's just, that's what I've been saying.
But no, for me, like, but I don't, if you want to do it, fine.
Yeah, sure.
Probably will be very good.
It's going to be great.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So it's like, I really don't have that much of a problem of the top 10 rankings of pictures
and whatnot.
However, I do have a problem if you want to stick someone like Tyler Glasnell or Blake Snell or Chris Sale in there, even Jacob de Grom now because it's a different scenario than it was last year for both of those guys, all those guys.
And it's just too risky.
You can't.
Like, why would you?
Yes, it could work out fine.
But, oh, gosh, you're putting yourself in such a rough situation and just don't do it.
I just can't tell myself anyone to draft those guys over Kyle Bradish,
who is not an injury concern that some might think because of his limited innings in 2024.
And sorry, for 2, 2025, it's actually the perfect scenario for someone doing rehab,
that they didn't just go a ton of innings while recovering from an elbow injury.
They get limited a bit so that they can have that full season next year.
So that's where my mindset is.
Who are the guys that actually have a uncapped ceiling?
and it can produce at that high level
that are not going in those first four or five rounds.
Yeah, and that's why he's a professional.
That's a tease because we're going to talk about
Kyle Pradesh a little bit later on.
I did just want to address Yamamoto for a second.
I brought this up to Chris recently.
You're not drafting Yamamoto, at least is how I look at it.
As the SP4 hoping that he finishes a top five pitcher,
you're almost drafting him just hoping that he finishes
in a top 10 pitcher.
That feels pretty safe within his range of outcomes.
He was the SP7 last year,
but I do agree he is.
somewhat limited based on that six-man rotation.
I have a problem with him as a ceiling.
That's it.
You just saw the like the top of it, right?
And I don't like drafting guys where you're saying,
he has to do exactly the same, right?
Either it's like, cool, I'm fine with this,
but then there's more possibly.
And that's what I, that's what I go for.
That's why I don't like it with Yamamoto
because it's like, it can't be better though.
For me, I think he's fine as the SP4.
He's seven for me.
So it's that he's a 12 picks ahead of number five.
that he's kind of in his own tier.
That's the problem I have.
Because I have Skeens, Crochet, Scoobel in the top 12 overall.
I don't have another pitcher in the top 30.
And maybe even that's too high.
But then I have 10 pitchers in the next 16 picks.
So that for me is just my issue with Yamamoto is not SP4.
Fine.
I won't argue with it.
I don't think the ceiling's there.
But he's likelyer to be SP4 than.
Probably Brian Wu, I would say.
I don't know.
So, I mean, the likelihood and realistic stuff, this is what I'm getting at.
Yeah.
I actually think that Brian Wu is the new Zach Wheeler.
I think of a skills perspective.
That is exactly it.
And I think he, it's really funny too, is that you guys might not remember, but
Zach Wheeler did have a form strain worry and then had a phenomenal season after that.
And considering that Brian Wu,
after all the scares that we had in 2024 was just like fine in 2025.
I feel so much better about that.
You still have good Seattle Park and more.
Probably was the wrong pick to say.
He's my number four.
Hunter Green.
Hunter Green fine.
You know when you,
yeah,
I'll take a load over green.
Yeah.
But it's the gap in price that I can't get around.
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Let's take that break. We'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in Fantasy
Baseball today. All right, let's get into
what people actually come here for. They want
the player takes, the pitcher takes
from Nick Pollock. And
you already kind of stole my
first question, so I guess we don't really have to
talk about it too much. But a
big question this offseason is who is the
SP4 in fantasy? Who should be drafted
as the SP4? You just mentioned that
it's Brian Wu, so I don't know if you need
expand any further on that.
I was just trying to save you time, Frank.
I was trying to do you as solid.
I love it.
I love it.
I got you.
Yeah, Brian Wu, you mentioned big history of arm injuries.
And then poof, he became a workhorse here.
Six plus innings.
The workhorse.
In 27 of 30 starts last season, including his first 25 of the season, which is crazy stuff.
Nick, do you worry at all about the peck injury that he suffered late in the year?
He did return in the postseason as a reliever.
I think he had one or two appearances.
Do you worry at all about the peck injury?
injury that ended his regular.
I mean, the fact that he came back, so no, I think it's one of the things that,
you know, and I talked about when it came about injuries.
I actually, this is a very good segue into a quick note on injured pitchers at the beginning
of the season.
I do a giant table for injured pitchers.
I don't do the list in season with injured pitchers.
I think it's just too hard to rank them.
So I have a giant table that says these are all the guys that are currently missing at least
one start.
If you look at that table, there are so few that are actually worth.
your time to draft and to hold on to when they do come back.
So few.
Honestly, the only one that I really wish I had was Ranger Suarez and nobody was going to
be aggressive on that one.
I was going to say, hold on a second.
It's Ranger Swarres.
That's the one you want.
So the number one thing about injured pitchers is making sure they come back and show that
they can pitch before the end of the previous season.
Jacob de Grom did that.
That was a huge, huge thing.
We just saw it from Cole Regans.
That's a huge thing.
and seeing Brian Mu pitch
after that injury
is a huge thing as well.
So we know you like Brian Wu
obviously even though you're not going to draft him. We know you're not going to
draft pitching early based on
your strategy. But
another pitcher that you really like is
Kyle Bradish also mentioned his name.
Again, saving a lot of time. But he kind of
feels like this year's hype guy. It feels like
everybody loves Kyle Bradish. I do.
Chris does. Scott does.
And perhaps you love him the most. You have him
as your SP14.
The biggest question that I have with Braddish is the innings,
but you mentioned you're not really worried about it.
This is, again, this is one of those things
where you want to see the guy have limited innings
when they come back from Tommy John,
and teams are not going to,
teams are just going to have to let them go.
Like, you really think that they're going to have Kyle Bradish
start at the beginning of the year and then just say,
okay, cool, we're going to take a break in July.
It's just there's not a chance.
And it's not also like he's 24.
I think there's a lot of parallels that are made
between returning from Tommy John
and the innings in the previous season
and also rookies who have yet to ever have any sort of workload.
It is not the same.
If you've done the time in the past,
you are going to do the time again.
And that is the assumption of teams.
So Kyle Bradish, sure, he might have one or two games
of maybe 75 pitches instead of 90.
And there might be a little extra cautious here and there.
But I think he's just going to be Kyle Braddish.
He had his slider back last year in the same way that you want to see it.
He's going to be on probably a winning team.
Orioles.
I mean, we know what just happened, but they should be a winning team.
I think they will be.
It's exactly the kind of scenario I'm talking about, a 90 pitch plus guy.
And I looked at it and it went, hold on a second.
I'd rather have that than Tyler Glass now than Blake's now,
all these guys that I just do not know
where I'm going to be with them throughout the season.
Yeah. Kyle Braddish, by the way, in case people need a reminder,
his last 14 starts, which combines 2024 and 2025,
a 265 ERA 105 whip 12.6K per 9.
He has thrown a total of 71 in a third innings over the past two years,
but he did throw 168 and two thirds back in 2023.
So I would probably expect, you know, 160,
Plus from Braddish, the Orioles are relying on him too.
They kind of really need him to be that anchor, that workhorse, that ace of that pitching staff.
And I think they're going to lean on him quite a bit.
Chris, I'll throw it over you.
I'm a big fan of Kyle Bradish.
I actually thought I was going to be higher on him than consensus.
I have him as SP21.
He's SP 23 right now.
So I think I need to move him up.
I'm surprised he's moved up.
And as Nick's saying, SP 14 for him.
I, you know, I look ahead of him in the rankings.
There's Kirby, there's Snell, there's Webb.
Well, there's Kirby.
I need to see him in spring training and see if he has the full arsenal back,
because I think that was a big thing with him.
I don't have a full arsenal back.
I just, I, I, okay, here's my thing.
It's less about the changeup or, or splitter being big weapons for him.
for me it's the fact that he could not throw either of those two pitches coming back from the shoulder injury
suggests that he just wasn't right whether it was he wasn't 100% healthy or what he just didn't have his full arsenal which suggests to me that something changed his arm slot was lower yep um and i i think that makes throwing splitters harder um but yeah go ahead that's a fascinating idea i never i never consider that chris um
I think his philosophy was fine.
Well, no, I've been banging the table for a long time for George Kirby to do what I call the Blake's Nell blueprint.
That is throw fastballs up and then your secondaries down.
Specifically, with his slider.
I think his slider is really good, but he hasn't been able to command it and put in the right spot over the years.
And then he came back from the injury and he finally was able to.
And he was going four seamers and sinkers with sliders impeccably placed.
And I like that slider more than the curve and more than the curve.
than the change up.
And what I saw was someone who suddenly, out of nowhere,
finally found his rhythm of command with four seamers,
sinkers and sliders and just lead into that.
I was able to do the sliders against lefties too.
And that's what it was in my view.
It was like, well, right, I like this more than the curve and change.
But I do also understand the idea of like maybe he is shoulder injury affected it
so much that he had to do that.
And he wasn't able to throw the splitter and the curve as well.
because if you are doing that lower arm angle
and the shoulder is saying absolutely not,
we can't go higher.
Yeah, the curveball needs to come out over.
And the splitter, well,
splitters on the side are not good.
This is when you see those weird horizontal ones
that go instead of dropping.
That's because the pitcher is getting on the side of their splitter
and they're supposed to say on top of it.
So when they tilt like this,
that's where you get that weirdness
and it's easier to hit.
So I can understand that if you're getting more on the side,
you're going to be more on the side, right?
Lower arm angle.
So that's an interesting point.
I hadn't thought about that, Chris.
I like that.
Yeah.
And he for the record, he dropped his arm angle from 37 degrees to 29 degrees, which is.
That's one of the bigger drops.
Yeah.
That should really help the force semer though, because that helps with his height
adjusted VAA makes a flatter coming in.
Well, I mean, the four seamer was very good.
I don't know if it was better than the year before.
The, the metrics were fairly similar to 993X Wobah both years,
with rate right around 31%.
So it was a little.
little higher, about two percentage points higher, but sample size there is relatively small for a 2%
point increase. But that was just the thought I've had with Kirby is just, I want to see,
because it's possible that he just lowered his arm slot intentionally, that it wasn't because
he wasn't 100%. He just, there was something about that. But the fact that he did tinker with
the splitter throughout the season and even brought his change up back that he hadn't thrown in a couple
years, suggest to me that he was searching for something, that he just wasn't right. So that was just
the thought I had on Kirby. And Kirby is a name that I've kind of identified early in that,
I guess it's more of the third tier. The second tier is that kind of like SP4 to 15 range. But even,
and I know we spoke about how like typically this range in ADP is not great, but based on early
ADP, NFBC drafts, Kirby, Max Fried, Logan Webb, they're all going to. And so. They're all going
in rounds five, six, even like Cole Reagan's, Hunter Green.
I love Reagan's hair.
Oh, Reagan's, let's go.
Piscuit, yeah.
Where is it?
Those seem like pitchers I would love to target
based on early 80P, but we'll see if that remains
once we get more, you know, CBS, Yahoo ESPN drafts,
things like that as well.
So we mentioned a few names here, Nick,
that you do like, what about the pitchers?
You don't love as much.
You think it's time we start fading,
Blake Snell and Tyler Glass now.
Is that equal parts just their own injury risk and the Dodgers maybe not needing them as much in the regular season and saying,
yeah, you could take a couple months off here and there and we'll have you in the playoffs and we'll win the World Series.
One of the things Chris specifically, I really appreciate about you is that, you know, the way that you talk about this game of fantasy baseball isn't just about this is what the numbers are.
Thus, it's the highest likelihood of this.
you understand very well
that it's the heart of being a fantasy manager
and what is that like and we need to manage that as well
and oh my gosh
is there anyone else
outside maybe Dillon C's
yeah oh yeah who gives you anxiety
as a fantasy manager like Blake's now
at least Dillon C stays on the matter we know what he does
we know it there's no more like beating around the bush
it's not a joke it's not tongue in cheek
Blake Snell is bad and then he's elite.
It's just what it is every year.
But the thing is, it's May 23rd.
Blake Snell has had maybe a few starts.
He's been on the aisle, but he's coming back.
He doesn't look great.
And you know the previous four years have been this way,
but what if it's different now?
And you as a manager, it's, oh gosh,
it is the worst feeling.
You do not want to be there.
And yes, at the end of the day, maybe, you know, Blake Snell is too low on my, my rankings.
I'm not favoring his positive results high enough, or potentially high results high enough.
And his floor is not as bad as I'm saying.
However, I value my stress.
I value my experience as a fantasy manager.
And I don't want it.
So get out of your, Blake's now.
Get out of your Tyler Glass now.
I think I've, not for me.
I've used this analogy.
maybe recently on this show, but when I was in high school or when I graduated high school,
my friends and I did a two-week-long road trip.
Ridiculous that our parents let us do this.
I was 17 at the time.
My parents were just like, cool, we'll see in two weeks.
Go figure out where you're sleeping.
I had no idea what that was.
And we went to Sandusky, Ohio.
If you're a roller coaster person, you know, that is where Cedar Point, Cedar Point, the big amusement park is.
Famous world, world famous roller coasters.
They had the, I don't know, the nightmare and the thinger and whatever.
And everybody loves roller coasters.
I hate roller coasters.
I don't like the experience of being on a roller coaster.
I don't want to simulate the feeling of dying.
That's what roller coasters are.
And so my friends went and I stayed in Sandusky, Ohio, which, no offense to anyone
who lives there, not the most happening town in America.
I had dinner at a TGI Friday's, maybe a Ruby Tuesday.
and it wasn't a great night, but like, I just knew I wasn't going to have a good time spending, you know, $100 or whatever it is going to a roller coaster park.
There's nothing else there.
There's, I don't know, I'm sure they have waffle cones and stuff, but like, I don't want to go do that.
You got to know that about yourself with Blake Snell.
You cannot be the person who's dropping or trading Blake Snell in June because that's going to be a disaster for you.
You're going to get all the worse and none of the benefit.
But you have to know that ahead of time.
And I, you can say, oh, but at the end of the season, it's a 320 ERA and a bunch of
strikeouts.
And it's like, yeah, but did you start him for all the good starts?
You probably started him for most of the bad starts.
Did you start him when it turned around?
That's always the tough thing.
And I just can't with his price.
It's just too, it's too expensive.
You know where you draft Blake's Nell, Chris, a best ball league?
Yeah, sure.
They choose when he goes in your lineup when he has.
great starts and things like that.
Glassnow, I pointed this out recently, too.
Last year, on top of, you know,
another shoulder injury that limited him to
around 90 innings, his
control was really bad. It was up
over like four walks per nine.
Glider was bad.
Yeah. So now we have some
kind of skill questions with Glassnow
who's also getting a little bit older
on top of the injury stuff too.
As someone who rostered Dylan Sees
in too many leagues
last year, I understand
exactly what you guys are talking about with the roller coaster ride.
I wish those names were going at more of a discount than they are right now.
And unless they drop, I'm probably not going to be in on any of those.
Snell Glass now.
Cease stays healthy, but he's also a roller coaster and a hipster, as Nick would call him.
Two names you think are overrated based on early ADP.
Noah McLean, oof, people are not going to like that.
And Spencer Strider.
So McLean is your SP 39.
Strider is your, wait for it, SP 80, SP 80.
So just to compare that to ADP, McLean is SP 26.
So you're a little bit lower on him and Spencer Strider.
You're just completely out on why.
Okay.
I'm going to handle the Strider one first.
I've really thought about this one a ton.
And here's the thing.
Spencer Strider was a two pitch pitcher, okay?
Four Seamer absolutely elite with great verts, great velocity, all of the things you want,
and then an elite slider underneath it.
Then he goes and has Tommy John and he comes back.
And what does Spencer Strider have?
Well, the slider is slower, but he still commands it well.
But the four seamer has lost velocity and it's lost a significant amount of vert.
And I put this out and I've asked everyone I can think of this question.
and I've gotten no one as a response.
There has not been a pitcher who has returned from Tommy John,
who formerly had an elite fastball,
returned from Tommy John did not have that elite fastball,
and then in the next season got it back.
There is not a single one.
And if you were going for Spencer Strider,
what you're doing is you're saying he's going to add something.
He's going to just be a different pitcher,
and it's going to be great.
it's really unfortunate that he had this amazing game against Rocky Road
that is the Colorado Rockies on the road are the sweetest thing you can possibly imagine
and he had 15 strikeouts I believe to one up Grant Holmes the real estate broker
oh yeah the grand homes the day before so that really made people believe that he's
actually really good again no that was just absurd domination with sliders and by the way
the right-handle-line-up could not handle him sliders because any breaking ball down away
that's just how you destroy the Colorado Rockies last year.
Spencer Strider is just, he's fine.
And what happens every year in our preseason rankings
is that all these guys that we actually are like,
hey, they can be drafted,
are going to be around like 70 and 80 and 90.
But then you get one month into the season,
the guys who are like 120, 1.30 are here
because all these other pitchers are injured.
Guys who are in 70 and 80,
all of a sudden come up to 50 and 60 all the time, right?
but if I'm drafting, I just can't do that.
I just can't go for Spencer Strider.
Why would I chase that instead of someone else who actually has a chance for a higher ceiling?
I know crazy, Spencer Strider, but I just don't believe that the Fastball is going to return.
It's just never happened before.
So I'm out.
I totally get that.
We did overvalued players based on early ADP last week, and I brought up Strider.
I just need to see something in spring training.
There's absolutely no chance I could draft him where he's going right now until I see either, you know, velocity is back, the shape on the fastball has improved, a reliable third pitch, which he doesn't have either. So until I see one or multiple of those things, I'm out at this current cost on Strider as well. And I just want to add not like results. I don't want to see good results in spring training for him because we need data. We talk about velocity or we talked about this readings. Yeah, we talked about this last week. He had that.
start against the Red Sox in spring training where he struck out, I think, nine in two and two-thirds
innings or something. It was, no, the math. Yeah, it doesn't work out. It was like he struck out like
eight of 11 batters that he faced or something. It was crazy. And like his ADP just shot like 40
rounds, like 40 picks immediately. He was like 150 before that. He was like 70 after that. And
if you actually watched the start, one, I think they had like two major leaguers and that was
including like Christian Campbell and Von Grissom.
I think we're like the two legit major league players on their roster.
And two, he was averaging like 94.5 miles per hour.
Right.
And we all just assumed, yeah, but that'll get better.
It's his first start back.
And it never really did.
And like, I just don't think he can be that guy if he's two to three miles per hour
below where he was at his peak, which is what he was last year.
Nick, another one of those height pitchers this season is Nolan McLean.
His ADP is right around 100, man.
he's getting pushed up.
You think he's a little bit overrated early on.
Why is that?
Oh, man.
Okay.
So there's a couple reasons for this.
And I'm not saying he's bad because I have in my top 40, right?
This is a case where we have eight starts of a guy.
And he's not showcasing the skills that we normally see with someone that we get really hyped about after just eight starts.
With Nolan McLean, it's, he does.
not have the withability against right handers.
But his sweeper, Nick, against right handers last year, you're not going to believe this.
His sweeper throwing 32% of the time had a sub 6% swinging strike rate.
That would be bad for a fastball, right?
Yes.
Oh, yes.
Absolutely would.
Now, high called strike rate as my cat cashew is probably going to come into frame right now.
She hears smart advice and she just comes on over.
But it 24% called strike rate, fine.
As someone who created CSW, that's sad.
I'll be the first to tell you that cold strikes are less sticky than swing strikes.
And they are part of the equation, but they can't be the only part of the equation.
So that should not stick around.
He froze guys more often than he should with it.
And his fastballs just generally are not that good.
The sinker against right handers is good.
I'll give them that one 100%.
I love it.
But against the lefties, what is the point?
plan. He has a curveball that is inconsistent. It has a 20% strike rate, but it was a sub 50% strike rate.
Sub 50%. Yes, he got whiffs on it, but it didn't do anything good consistently. Sinker got hit a tonne.
We have a stack called ICR, which is ideal contact rate. Pretty much did the hit or hit it well or not?
Not just all of a sudden amazing like barrels like sweet spot, everything else, solid contact.
You want to be at like 35% on a pitch.
like, oh, nice, good job. Sub 40, that's really the ideal. It was near 50% on his sinker at
22% usage against lefties. And the four seamers barely used 12%. Like that's his main approach
against lefties, right? Is that curveball and sinker and the sweeper that had a sub 60% strike rate
would not consistent. The skills are not that good. He just doesn't have this unbelievable putaway
pitch. He doesn't have the greatest fastballs. And the results were really nice.
for Nolan McLean.
They were great.
It was eight starts.
It wasn't a full season of this.
It was a perfect example of a good pitcher that had a great run.
And I think it's not wise to chase that.
It could be a really good draft pick for you.
It absolutely could.
He could make some more adjustments.
He's only been pitching for a few years.
So the idea is also that he's going to develop more, which I like in theory.
But if you remember from the top of this podcast, I don't want to wishcast.
much as I can. I don't want to have to lean on that development.
So I'm at a point where I say, look, he's good, but I'm not going to turn down someone like
Framber Valdez or Nolan McLean. I can't believe I'm saying this, right?
Like even Nick Ladolo, who just had a miraculous season, phenomenal.
And he did it by command and getting better and having the rhythm and showcasing skills.
I would much rather have than Nolan McLean.
Because Nolan McLean hasn't done it and does not have the raw skill set
that you want to see from someone that has such a good run.
I would caution people on the strikeout rate
that we saw in the small sample.
It was 30% 10.7K per 9.
His swinging strike rate, just 11%.
Those things don't really line up.
So either he's gonna have to get more swings and misses
or that overall strikeout rate is probably gonna drop down
here in year two for Nolan Claim.
Let's take our final break when we return.
Quick run through the news and notes.
We'll talk about a few more specific pitchers.
We'll do all of that right after this.
Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today.
Let's quickly run through the news and notes.
Not too much going on here.
The giant signed Tyler Malley to a one-year deal.
He is 31 years old.
The surface numbers were great last season,
a 218 ERA 113 whip.
Underlying numbers did not support it.
He's also dealt with a ton of injuries in his career.
But the landing spot,
obviously throwing to Patrick Bailey,
pitching an Oracle Park.
You know, I could see a lot of games
that were streaming Tyler Malley for.
Nick, what do you think about this move for Tyler Malley?
Is he anything,
more than a streamer for you in San Francisco.
I mean, Tyler Malley and Adrian Houser, I know it sounds crazy,
should not be overlooked in 15 teamers at the very least.
They are Adrian Houser, extra extension velocity last year
and was really good at generating outs.
And then you have Tyler Malley who I actually think was pretty good last year
and then he throw them in Giants in Oracle Park with,
which should be a good defense.
I think this is a potential 12-team snag at the end of your draft.
if he is still at SP3 right now for the Giants.
We look in a web, Robbie, Ray, Tyler, Malley, Adrian Houser, and Landon Rup,
according to Rosser Resource.
So keep an eye on that.
I mean, especially for your 15 teamers, I think there's a steal here.
Yeah, boy, that feels like it's an arm away still, doesn't it?
Yeah.
I mean, what you feel better if Malley and like, I think the young guys in San Francisco
are all kind of interesting, but I don't love any of them.
Birdsong, Wiz and Hunt, guys like, yeah.
All right.
from the birdsong train right guys we're gone from that i'm not really all the train with any of these
guys i think they're all just guys group is interesting rub actually kind of has an aaron nola profile
which is which is pretty but it's just like that would have been a nice spot for titsui i'm i you know
they have been linked to pictures like like a nether number two or number three like yeah i i really
was actually feeling like it was totally set in stone that he'd be a giant so yeah yeah i imagine like
for Amber Valdez and Logan Webb on the same team,
it's like righty and lefty, Spider-Man meme,
just kind of pointed with each other.
The early ADP for Malley is 559,
so he's going extremely late. I'm sure that number
will move up now that he's in San Francisco.
But yes, definitely a name not to skip over,
perhaps in those deeper leagues.
Maybe your last round pick an 812 teamer.
We did get a report that the Blue Jays view
Cosima Okamoto as more of a super utility player
rather than just their starting third baseman,
which we assumed he would be.
Chris, I don't know,
$60 million for a utility player seems like a lot of money.
Well, but that's like what, 48 Canadian?
So, you know, I actually don't know if the math on that.
I don't know if it might be the opposite.
Other way.
Okay.
So it's even more.
I've only been once.
Yeah, he's going to play every day.
He's going to play somewhere, right?
Like how many guys do the Blue Jays have who aren't like some form of utility player, right?
Like they got a lot of guys.
They move around in a lot of ways.
Barger doesn't stick in one spot.
Clement doesn't really stick in one spot.
Lucas all that like they kind of have like five guys who are utility players in
their lineup.
So is Okamoto going to fit in there?
Yeah.
I don't think he's going to like significantly lose playing time unless he's not any good.
In which case we don't care anyway.
So I if he ends up with like triple eligibility, quadruple eligibility, that's awesome.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, I will say this.
I know I don't speak about hitters, but don't trust manager quotes.
And utility player, what that actually might translate into is that he can play in multiple positions, so we're not out on other guys.
Like Jake Cronoworth.
Right.
So it's that kind of thing.
I would be shocked if he's not in the starting lineup on opening day.
Marcel O'Meyer, who is recovering from wrist surgery, is expected to be ready for opening day.
Hopefully spring training as well would nice to see him there.
The Twins acquired Eric Waggman from the Marlins for somebody named Cade Bragg.
Last season, Wagamon hit 250 with nine homers and four steals.
Chris, you got to watch a lot of Eric Waggman.
Does this matter at all?
There are reasons to believe he's one of the few hitters who legitimately can handle
lefties really well but can't really hit righties all that well.
There aren't that many of those guys actually.
But I think he, sure, he probably doesn't matter for fantasy though.
I mean, there are a bunch of platoon possibilities here on the twins,
like Matt Walner, Trevor Larnock, guys like that.
So most likely a short side platoon,
if when injuries happen to the twins,
perhaps we get more playing time from Eric Waggman.
We did have a bunch of players signed minor league deals
with invitations to spring training.
Don't think they matter all that much,
but I'll mention some of them here.
Jared Kelnick with the White Sox, Paul DeYoung, with the Yankees.
Anthony Volpe is going to start the year on the aisle,
so I don't know, maybe.
Christian Arroyo with the Mets
Orlando Arcea with the Twins
Arcea couldn't do it with the Rockies so it's
probably not going to happen for him
We had some players claimed off waivers as well
The Orioles claimed John Kenzie Noel
and the Nationals claimed Joey Weamer
Let's get back into some pitcher takes here
We'll do a little rapid fire
And back to the pitchers you like
Let's get positive again here Nick
Ryan Pepio as your SP 24
Drew Rasmussen as your SP 26
I like Pepio a lot as well
not as much as you.
I haven't met SP 36.
Is it just your higher on raise pitchers
because they're going back into Tropicana
and strikeouts and stuff plays up better there
because that's what I'm thinking.
Oh, that's 100% correct.
And the fact that Ryan Pepio still had a productive season
despite what he said to Ion O'Saris
that he just didn't know where the pitch was going
in Dors Steinbrenner for what was going to do
while Tropicana is the equivalent of a pitching lab.
That is, it goes exactly where it should.
That sounds wonderful to me.
Ryan Pepio has a phenomenal foresemer that just gets amplified in Tropicana.
And then you also have his change-up in his slider and cutter.
It's, I think, a great scenario.
They're going to use him as an anchor.
He went 160 innings last year, Ryan Pepio.
This, to me, is a productive arm that has the possibility for more next year.
And Drew Rasmussen, as well, is just, he's really,
solid.
I go back and forth on the idea that he's going to throw more innings or not,
because I would not be surprised if the race said,
cool, you just did about 140, 150 this past year,
and that's great, 150 on the dot.
But we like that you survived the year.
So you know what?
Let's just kind of do that again.
It might be about 160 when removing the four inning games or so that he had
and turning those into five or six.
But Drew Rasmussen consistently is just really hard to hit.
And what's even better is that he didn't have his feel for his curve or his sweeper last year.
It was really just cutter, four-seamer, and sinker.
And there is certainly a possibility on top of whatever I'm already accepting of
Drew Rasmussen just repeating last year that he could increase that strikeout rate
if those pitches do return for Rasmussen.
So both of those guys, better scenarios.
I already liked what they did.
it just makes a lot of sense.
One thing I do want to add with both of these guys and anyone that we talk about on the
raise is they're in such a weird spot right now.
I just like,
they feel totally rudderless and it feels primed to get blown up.
And it kind of did last trade deadline.
I think there's,
I would say better than 50% chance.
This is just total guessing.
But I would say there's a better than 50% chance that Jurassic wasn't end the season on the raise.
He's getting about a three million.
million dollar pay raise for 2027. You start to get close to double digits or you know seven digits I guess
on a contract with the raise and that's pretty clearly a sign that they're going to get traded.
So I think Rasperson probably gets traded Pepio first year arbitration. Maybe they hang on to him.
But I don't think anybody on the raise who's making more than a million dollars is safe from getting traded this year.
So that's the only thing I would add just as context for them.
One pitcher who won't be in Tropicana Field this season is Shane Boz,
who was traded over to the Orioles,
who you actually recorded a reaction video at your wedding
with other fantasy analysts.
I couldn't find you guys.
It was like a day or two after Shane Boz got traded, which is hilarious.
Did you leave by then?
What was this?
Who was around right now?
I don't know where Frank was.
I think I was with Frank's wife and my wife at our table just talking about.
Oh, man.
I probably got it.
I tried to get you guys and Samolsky to do it as well and some of the pitchers guys.
And I just, I found Eno Spore and Fast.
But I think with Shane Boz is, again, Steinbrenner really just disrupts you.
And I want to make clear that it's not just about the home games at Steinbrenner Field.
It prevents you from getting into any sort of rhythm when you are pitching in a different environment both ways.
So you go out and maybe you feel okay for a moment, but then you're feeling worse because you don't feel confident in the first place.
because he just pitched in Georgia Steinbrenner Field.
So take him out of that, it should be better.
It is a good park with the Orioles.
I think also the Orioles are going to lean on him.
I don't think we're going to see him limited as much as we just saw or have seen in Tampa Bay.
And I do like the fact that Baz recognized his slider is not what it used to be and turn it into a cutter.
Much better there.
I hope the four-seamer can get better.
That is the biggest concern I have with Shane Boz.
and I'm not as high on Baz as I am the other two in Rasmussen and Pepio,
but this is the funniest part to me.
If you remember, the Orioles from 2015, 2016, Dillon Bundy,
not allowed to throw that cutter.
He goes to Angels, how's the cutter, and he's amazing for a year, right?
Well, now the Orioles might encourage Bos to throw the cutter.
So I would love to see that.
I would love for him to become less reliant on the four seamer just a little bit,
to maybe add a sinker for right-handers too
to help deal with them.
But I think that this is going to be
a productive member of your 12 teamers.
So I would be fine drafting boss,
just not as my like SB 3 or 4,
which I don't think you need to do.
No, it's going to help all your teams.
Yeah, you can get him very late in drafts,
boss, kind of like rounding out your
SP5, SP6, you know,
maybe if you're aggressive, he's a reserve pitcher
or something like that.
But again, yes, that's Shane Boss.
We're talking about over to the Orioles.
How does Nick rank the,
rookie slash second year pitchers. That's a big topic of conversation this offseason as well.
You have them in this order. Cam Schlittler, Jacob Miziarowski, Chase Burns, Bubba Chandler,
Nolan McLean, Trey I Savage, and Kate Horton, who you have a little bit higher than ADP as well.
We spoke about McLean. I wanted to ask you about Cam Schlittler here. He's at the top of the list for you.
Why is that and any concern over the big Velo jumps over the past couple of years for Schlislew?
Right. So, okay. Okay.
I understand the fear of Velo jumps.
I really do.
Like, I get it.
Like, okay, these Velo jumps happen.
We've seen injuries before with it, cool.
I mean, we've seen injuries from like every second year exciting pitcher.
Everyone here is an injury risk in this way.
And what Cam Schlittler did is he was trying to figure out his approach.
It really is location of pitches.
He had a four seamer working, but then the sweeper and the slider and the curb all mingled together kind of up in middle of the zone.
a bit too often.
But then he had this start against Tampa where he finally figured out, I'm going to go
cutter and curveball and have some pitch separation.
And from then on, he was just a different animal.
And it's annoying how the playoff tax works.
But there are certain situations like Yusavage and with Schlitler that getting that extra
look at them actually helps me because I understand more of them.
I didn't get much of a sample in the season.
And Cam to me is in a perfect situation.
I mean, you want to be a pitcher on the Yankees for fantasy value.
And you want to be a guy that throws a great fastball with good velocity or the great velocity
with two supplemental pitches that you can throw for strikes.
That is a scenario with Cam Schlittler.
No, he's not going to be as good as we have seen in the playoffs and whatnot.
However, I think that you're just going to see him go constantly and be successful.
So that's why he's at the top of it.
I probably won't have any of these except Cade Horton, to be honest with you.
Tell me why.
I think yeah, the Cubs defense.
Yeah.
This is one of the tweets I put out, which was you can actually see that the angels had like a negative 51 out of its above average for their infield last year.
And then you have the Cubs in the dynamics like plus 30 or so.
And if you do kind of the math, like, well, maybe that's just like one extra out a start or so.
So it doesn't feel significant.
That statement is like saying, oh, the climate change isn't real because it only goes up like half a degree a year.
Right? It sounds very small, but that's actually very significant.
Well, adding an extra out per start means that you're getting out of jams that you normally wouldn't get out of.
Well, also, it's 1.5k per nine.
Yeah.
Like if you think about it that way, if you were saying being on this specific team is worth 1.5K per nine,
oh, well, that's huge.
I mean, obviously it's not, the analogy doesn't quite work in fantasy because strikeouts are.
specifically worth something that regular outs aren't but in terms of run
prevention I do think I I worry I haven't quite adequately accounted for how good
the Cubs were last year and there are some rumors about Nico Horner getting traded
that are a little worrying because you have a short stop playing second base
that's awesome you have a short stop playing third base that's awesome but that is
yeah I worry that I'm just
systematically underrating the Cubs pitchers because of that for sure.
Right.
And it's part of,
I tried to make it my analysis,
but it's also really hard to understand team defense
and how elite they're going to be throughout the year
because guys get hurt and they get replaced and all this stuff.
And it happens.
But this also explains that I'mbacks having a lot of success with their pitchers for
a few years as well.
Rangers last year had that,
especially in Arlington as well.
And with Kate Horton,
he actually has a wide arsenal.
It doesn't really seem like it is at first,
but he manipulates his fastball in two ways.
one has more cut action and one doesn't.
And then his slider kind of is a curve and a slider itself
or even a slider and a sweeper.
And it's actually this mini looking Justin Steele.
And I would do my sound, if you can hear it, of me saying Justin Steele.
No, he didn't hear it.
But if you want to just say it the way that you normally steal,
and he's going to come back at some point this year.
Sure, but he's the other sided Justin Steele in this way of manipulating the ball really well
and working with his defense.
I think also the strike rate can go up.
I don't think that he is as low as like a, what was there,
percent, 20 percent that we saw last year.
I think that certainly should be better with this breaking stuff.
And you have an outs guy.
You have a good volume guy with a production already, with more to go, with a great team
situation.
That is why I'm in on Kate Horan.
And I think that Tray Savage is just above him because of the slider, but I'm a little
worried about his fastball.
It is not as good as we thought.
So there's more risk with those, but more of a ceiling.
Well, Kate Horan's just like, that should be very solid.
Two more names that you seem to be higher on.
You text me, Connolly Early is, quote, dope.
And Dustin May is intriguing again.
Yeah.
Why is that?
Oh, man.
Connolly Early is like is Max Reed, but, yeah, but young.
I mean, he has such a wide arsenal.
Five of his six pitches have an above average PLV.
That is the hour pitch quantifier.
You know stuff plus, location plus.
We have a PLV stuff plus.
We have a PLV location plus.
We just shove them together.
And yeah, his four seamers change up,
a sinker, his slider, a sweeper, all above average.
His curveball is actually really good too.
In my view, he just didn't throw enough strikes with it last year.
It was just sub-60%.
But it had a 19% swing strike rate,
and its PLV was like 498.
It was almost right there at that 5 mark with that you want to have for PLV.
Connolly early to me is exactly the kind of pitcher
that the Red Sox want to have at the back end of it
and build and allow to develop properly.
I think he has an inside track against Peyton Toley
as much as I love Peyton Tolly's four seamer.
That's all he has.
So Connolly Early is a refined pitcher.
He's a command pitcher with all these tools.
With all have an above average, sorry, over a 10% swing strike rate.
Yeah, he's really good, guys.
And I'm really excited to see a lot more Connolly Early.
if I'm going to go for some of these young ones that some are interested in like emmitchian and
troy melton are in that i think that connolly early is the one that i would be going for if he has that
locked rotation spot yeah that that's the question right now the red sox on rostor resource they've
got cutter crawford and patrick sandoval on there i guess just because of just because of money like
they are paying patrick sandoval like 10 million i think or something um just and really they're
paying him 18 million this year actually it's crazy because that well they can they
They gave him a two year.
They gave him a two year 18 million dollar contract.
He didn't pitch last year.
So they're paying him $18 million this year.
I think that's the Walker Bueller of this year where they're going to give him some chances.
I'm not expecting.
Okay.
If Patrick Sandville isn't looking anything decent in spring train,
you think the Red Sox are going to still go for this?
Walker Bueller was pretty awful from day one last year.
Walker Bueller wasn't as bad in the spring.
No.
I don't know.
I guess I don't remember the spring.
I remember him being bad.
Oh, he was bad in the season.
I was like, guys,
please run away from this.
And so the fact they stuck with him as long as they did,
just $18 million is a lot to get.
It's not Walker Bueller who had like ridiculous seasons before.
But the money's pretty similar.
Hasn't done that.
Yeah.
The money's pretty similar is my only thing.
I mean, sure.
Bueller got like $22 million.
Sanneval, it's 18.
So that's just I think they're going to give him a chance.
But there's also rumors that,
they've been talking about trading
Brian Beyo.
And also with Cutter Cropper
has been thrown around too.
Yeah, so
I hope we see
Conno the early.
And life finds a way, right?
Like someone
someone's going to get hurt.
Like Patrick Sandoval has to stay healthy.
Cutter Crawford has to stay healthy.
There's no guarantee of any of that.
So there's also
he's going to be in the rotation
at some point fairly early.
It's just
do you have to sit there
for two weeks taking a zero on your bench?
No, I do not recommend that whatsoever.
Do not stash at the end of drafts, guys.
Just don't do it.
Yeah.
It's not worth it.
Chris, I know you had an interesting slash fun question
you wanted to kind of wrap up here with Nick.
Yeah.
What are the three most impactful specific changes
that a pitcher could make?
Like three,
if you were a pitching coach around Major League Baseball,
you were,
you're adding a cutter.
I know you love a cutter.
You're getting rid of a splitter.
I know you hate a splitter.
Only as the number two pitch.
How many times do I need to say this?
Only the number two pitch.
Alex Chamberlain has ruined this for me.
What are three, the most impactful,
specific changes you can think of
for a major league pitcher right now?
Okay.
Adding velocity is number one.
Well, sure.
Okay.
I mean, that's just like,
just figure it out of how to do it
because it's just unbelievable.
Can't shut it is.
Yes, sacrifice some command for that velocity.
It's just kind of proven over and over again.
Two is workload, believe it or not.
Just the team itself allowing them to throw enough pitches.
And three is velocity again, because it's just that important to do it.
No, I mean, I would say more so is actually something I talk about a lot.
And when I do get the opportunities to work with players and teams,
one of the things I really just spend my time on is mindset
of where are you actually trying to throw these pitches.
And I've seen this before,
and I think one of the more exciting things that I get to do
is with my SP Roundup,
that is the article I do every day of the season,
where I break down every pitcher,
I get locations in that.
And I can start to see if George Kirby is actually locating properly.
and that can be a major shift of their skill set and their ability
is that instead of Nick Lodolo having that four-seamer all around the zone,
now he's actually being able to go up and in to a lefty
and separate it with his change-up.
J.T. Ginn had some really fun moments,
and that was when he was actually living around the edges
and really focusing on missing inside with his cutter
instead of missing over the plate with his cutter.
And that is actually one of the major things that you can't see season
in the season of that kind of approach can make such a big difference.
And it's less of changing what it was and more of making it good.
That is, instead of going from this corner to that corner, change it from,
okay, this is all over the plate, Cam Schlittler.
Can you please locate that curveball down?
Thank you so much.
You're much better now.
That would be a major one I'd focus on.
And you're going to hear a lot about pitch types, guys.
It is one of the most fun things that you hear around all the wind.
and the rumors about pitch types and, oh, yeah, you know, he's going to be leaning into a cutter now and he's developing a splitter.
I looked back at, I believe it was Jason Collette's pitch tracker from last year.
I think there were maybe three pitchers in total who we reported on there adding a pitch that actually was significant through the entire three.
Okay?
And it was about 100 or so different people adding a pitch.
So don't bank on that.
However, the ones that did work were sliders.
And sliders are so imperative.
A pitcher without a slider needs a slider.
It is just the most effective whiff pitch you'll find.
And finding those whiffs are generally going to be a slider.
So if I got to do it again, sure, adding velocity,
sure having the workload change.
But I would say it's really honing in on command and not control,
but command and how they're using these pitches,
moving away from pitches that don't have strikes to pitches that do have strikes.
and then leaning away from, yeah, really the bad pitches
to get more whiffs with other things.
It's that simple when you're looking at these changes.
He is Nick Pollack.
Make sure to follow him on X at Pitcher List.
Check out everything he's got going on over at Pitcherlist.com.
And Nick, I'll give you one more opportunity
just to let everyone know what you've got going on.
I know the Twitch channel is kind of starting back up
and you're doing a lot over there right now.
Absolutely, yeah, guys.
Come hang out with me all of January 8 a.m. Eastern
time throughout the entire day of weekdays as I go over every single pitcher, ask any questions
that I have.
But I can't emphasize enough, but we have a ton of things coming out with PLPro, including
our live draft assistant, which is beautiful.
And you'll also have a pro dashboard this year where you can add your teams from all your
leagues and get our projections in Stackass data to tell you more about it, about the decisions
you should make curated for you.
So no more you going off to Stackass and all that stuff and trying to figure out the right
time to look at a rolling chart, it will be fed to you. We have our beta launching this year.
It's going to be part of our PL Pro package, no extra charge. So go get in today, PL Pro.
You can get 15% off with promo code CBS Podcasts.
Wow.
Come on down.
50% off PO Pro yearly.
All right.
P.O. Pro is a great product, by the way. I use it a lot.
I honestly, I use the player pages. Is that part of PLPro, Nick?
Well, the Peele player pages on our site are free. However, what you get,
with PL Pro, you get the rolling charts, which are just
unbelievable with Process Plus as well.
You get live data that is actually data that you want to use, like
IVB and extension and
location plots for a lefty, righty, all the good
stuff that I use in my roundups, you get that every day too.
And 20 other million things like my SIN start tool for
14 days out into the future in season.
There's so many things you get with it.
You know, a lot of people ask, how do I
get better at understanding pitching and things like that?
Well, Nick just broke it down for you.
Go to pitchurelis.com and you use all these amazing tools.
We do appreciate you for hopping on.
We're going to wrap there for Nick and Chris.
I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
And we will be back again tomorrow.
Bye-bye.
Paramount Podcasts.
