Fantasy Baseball Today - 2026 Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts 1.0! (1/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 28, 2026

Let's start off with our Sleepers 1.0 and first up, Carter Jensen (3:42)! ... Why is Chris back in on Francisco Alvarez (8:50). ... Anthony Santander and Kazuma Okamoto should fit in nice with the Blue Jays (13:20). ... Chris explains why he likes Manzardo, Justin Crawford, DeLauter, Bubic and Messick (22:15). ... Scott has Sal Stewart and Marcus Semien as sleepers (29:00). ... Frank is also in on Stewart, but as a breakout (33:52). ... Can Jackson Merrill re-breakout (36:35)? ... Kyle Bradish and Ben Rice are the breakout breadsticks this season (42:20). ... Scott also likes Chase Burns, Ivan Herrera and Daulton Varsho has breakouts (45:59). ... Chris likes Cade Smith, Ryan Pepiot and Luke Keaschall (52:38). ... Let's get into busts, starting with Alex Bregman (57:30). ... Is Oneil Cruz mispriced (1:02:13)? ... Spencer Strider might be broken (1:06:43). ... We wrap up by explaining the rest of our busts (1:08:42). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, rushing. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott and Chris. Slavers, breakouts, and busts 1.0.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, January 28th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris. Towers. We will start with our sleepers in just a second, but Chris, you are back. I'm alive. You're not frozen. That's a good thing. Man, it was, so we had like a, I don't know, what are those things called that make electricity? Transformer caught on fire and exploded. Oh, geez. A couple of blocks or like around the corner from me on Saturday night at like nine o'clock and our power started flickering. And then we had about 24 hours where for some reason, this room that I'm in had power and nowhere else in the apartment did. And we couldn't run the heat.

We couldn't like nothing. Just whatever my computer and Wi-Fi were plugged into worked. And then like Monday morning, everything went down. And it was like 50, degrees in my apartment. It was absolutely miserable. That is brutal. Yeah. So I'm alive. Yes. I took a hot shower today. It was amazing. It was one of the best showers of my life. And I'm feeling good. Yeah. Nothing screams baseball, spring training, fantasy baseball, like a 50 degree apartment. So here we are. Oh, man. All right. Let's get ready to it. We've got a lot of names to get to. We'll see how many of those we actually can. Scott, one of all of us. Scott, why don't you kick us, imagine?

That would be like, I don't know, a lot of days, like 10 times, six articles. Anyway, Scott, you are up first. A sleeper that you are very passionate about the season. All right, a sleeper I'm passionate about is a young man by the name of Carter Jensen. You ever heard of this Carter Jensen guy? He was up for the Royals late last year.

And, you know, I had heard of him as a prospect, a catch a prospect of the royal system. Didn't look too deep into it, really about the time until about the time he got promoted and was immediately made a believer because all he was doing down at AAA was hitting the ball 94 miles per hour on average at AAA. You compare that to major leaguers. Only five average 94 mile per hour exit velocities. And three of them were the 50 homer guys, Aaron Judge, Shohei Otani. and Kyle Schorber. Here's the thing.

After Jensen got to the majors, it got even better somehow. 95.4 miles per hour is what he averaged, which was topped by only one qualifying major leaguer. And that major leaguer is O'Neill Cruz. So obviously hitting the ball hard. Just super, super meaningful. Isn't the only, it's very important, but it's not the end-all. all. But unlike Cruz, who has problems elevating the ball, has major problems connecting with the ball

in the first place, Jensen isn't just okay at them. He's very good at that too. His zone contact rate was in the upper 40% of the league at AAA. His chase rate was among the very best at AAA. Even in the majors at a 13% walk rate to a 17% strike out rate. His pull air rate was on the higher end as well, the upper half of the league. So, like, he, he kind of has no flaws as a hitter that I can see. And here he is hitting the ball with the authority of, like, Aaron Judge were evoking his name when talking about the exit velocities. So I'm, this might be the most underrated player in all of baseball.

Now, he is a rookie. I cited some of the major league stats. Obviously, it was small samples, but, like, he killed it. And that small sample, too, so much so that by the end of the year, even with Salvador Perez there with him in Kansas City, he was playing every day Carter Jensen was anyway. The two were just swapping out catcher D.H. And I imagine the presence of Salvador Perez is kind of what's serving to suppress Jensen's value. Obviously, just a huge influx of talent at catcher doesn't help either. But I think he's a special, special hitter.

And I think the Royals already showed us how they're going to manage it with Salvador Perez. frankly, Jensen might play more games at catcher in Salvador Perez this year. But they're both going to play a ton because that DH spot is going to be dedicated to one or the other. So, you know, any two catcher league, Carter Jensen is a high, high priority for me. And we might get to a point where I'm just taking them in one catcher leads too. I don't have them ranked in my top 12 because, again, there's just a surplus of talent at that position. but if it wasn't like that, if it wasn't like historically deep right now,

that position, it's just like, how much can I lower this, this, tried and true who's always been there? If it wasn't like that, Carter Jensen with that data would easily be top 12,

if not top eight for me. Yeah, so Carter Jensen's ADP in the month of January so far is 193 as the 17th catcher off the board. And it's tough for all the reasons you just mentioned. I mean, the three catchers going ahead of him.

Kyle Teal, I think we have some level of excitement about Samuel Bessio. We have some level of excitement about Francisco Alvarez, really good in the second half last season. Once he came back, would you take Carter Jensen over any of those three? Teal, Bessio, Alvarez. I haven't ranked ahead of Alvarez. I haven't ranked behind the other two. But it's something I'm wrestling with because I want him more than Kyle Teal. I mean, Samuel Bessio is a top five.

overall prospect, according to some publications, and he has all sorts of exciting offensive potential himself. Granted, his little bit time in the majors last year, last September about the same stretch as Carter Jensen, not nearly as effective. So I don't think there needs to be a huge separation between those two. I think Carter Jensen is in the same tier as those other guys. And he's the one I'm most excited about,

so I may be moving him up in the near future. And for the Orioles too, as much as we like Basayo, it's a pretty crowded team. Obviously, they like him long term. I think he's going to be really good. But just for this season, if Beasio doesn't get off to when I start, I mean, there's other players that they can go to at DH

or just play Adley more at catcher. So there is a little bit of playing time risk with Samuel Bessio. I think something we have to factor in there as well. Chris, let's go over to you, a sleeper that you are quite excited about the season. Yeah, I smiled when Frank mentioned him. him or when you mentioned him, Frank, yeah, that's who I'm talking to. Because I really like Francisco Alvarez. I am really, I think this is a case where people are literally sleeping on what Francisco

Alvarez did in the second half of last season. I don't know if anyone realizes it. Not anyone. I'm sure some people do. I don't know if everyone realizes how good Francisco Alvarez or what. was after he got called back up from AAA last season. He hit 276 with a 921 OPS, a 93.4 mile per hour average exit velocity. He cut his strikeout rate to 25.2%.

And that was after going down and hitting, what, 12 homers in 26 games or something down to AAA, 12 homers and 26 games. I know he's been around for a while. I know he's disappointed people. He is still only 24 years old. He just turned 24, two months and nine days ago as we're recording this. We have seen a 25 homer season from Francisco Alvarez. We saw, I mean, even if you just extrapolate what he did last season,

you're talking about a, what, 790 OPS and a 25 homer pace, basically. I think he's going to play a ton for the Mets. and I think this is a chance to get a top 12 type of catcher at a discounted price because people are, one, wary of just we've been disappointed by him in the past. And I've been out on Francisco Averaz in the past, including I think he was on my bus list going into last season. But I think he showed real skills improvements. And I am very excited for what Francisco Averaz is capable of this year. and he's a rare catcher with upside who is not getting a ton of hype. I think Carter Jensen is an awesome player too.

I like a lot about what he does as well. And Jensen being a little cheaper. Yeah, I think it's fine to prioritize or pass on Alvarez if Jensen's there. But Jensen could get a lot of hype that I don't think Francisco Alvarez is going to get. I've heard more industry types talking about Carter Jensen than I have Francisco Averas so far. So I like both, but I like Francisco Averas a lot. That's the thing about Catcher this year because I think that's perfectly fine choice. It's a sleeper Francisco Alvarez.

But, you know, you could obviously make a case for Samuel Bessayo as a sleeper, Kyle Teal as a sleeper. I have two catchers on my breakouts list. I'll go ahead and mention them. Ben Rice and Augustine Ramirez are both on my breakouts list. And also a guy who might become a catcher very shortly, Yvonne Herrera on my breakouts list. And then, of course,

might be as good a hitter as anyone at the position. And that's not even, you know, mentioning Cal Raleigh, Hunter Goodman, William Contrera, Shea Langalears, Will Smith. like the guy, the long time standouts at that position. I guess Goodman's not a long time, but you know what I mean. He's up there with the elites now. So it's just in one catcher leagues, unless you just happen to have the pick where you're

supposed to draft Cow Raleigh, it's like not even worth investing in this position because even if you pick the wrong sleeper, there's going to be like six others available on the way for wire later. Yeah. In two catcher leagues, I think there's a little bit. more strategy, how you want to play it. Maybe you get one high-end name and then one of these kind of young, upside-y guys a little bit later on.

Or you could just grab two amazing catchers. There are a lot of different ways to play it. But yeah, I think you could argue that there are 17 catchers, 18, if you include Yvonne Herrera, that are worthy of being ranked inside the top 12 at the position, which is probably the best it's ever been as long as I've been here on this podcast. So since 2020, the catcher position looks phenomenal this season.

I'm going to give you a little bit of a double dip here with Blue Jays and a couple names that I've talked a lot about already this offseason. I'm going to mention Anthony Santander once again. Going outside the top 200 and 80p right now, he is just one season removed from hitting 44 home runs with over 100 RBI. I don't think he gets back to that level. And last year his season was just completely wrecked by injury. But he's someone who makes a good amount of contact.

He puts the ball in the air a lot. I think he fits exactly what the Blue Jays want to do. do to and he's going to be right in the middle of that lineup. So assuming he's healthy, I think Santander can get back to hitting around 30 home runs. And if you get that outside the top 200, I think you're really happy with that.

And sticking with the Blue Jays, it's got one that I know you could piggyback off of as well. Kazima Okamoto, who came over this offseason from Japan, not as widely regarded as someone like Munataka Morikami, very different players too. Morikami has like the raw

power, the exit velocities, strikes, out a lot. Okamoto is more of a polished hitter and he doesn't strike out nearly as much. He doesn't have raw power, but he puts the ball in the air a lot to his pull side. Over the last two seasons in the NPB, Okamoto led the entire league in pulled air percentage. So this reminds me a lot of an East Sock Paratus and Alex Bregman type. And honestly, when it's all said and done this season, he might put numbers very similar to those guys. I could see like a 260 average 25-ish home runs from Okamoto this year in the middle of that Blue Jays lineup. So another one who's going outside the top 200 right now, you can get them as your corner infielder,

maybe just your utility bat in a points league later on, whatever it might be. But I like both of these guys. Scott, I know you like Okamoto as well. Yeah, I will piggyback on your Kazuma Okamoto take because I think that projection, you know, a lot of people would be happy with it. I think he could maybe even be better than that. He last year, he missed some time with an injury. He only played like half a season. But his WRC Plus in Japan last year was 210.

That's one of those stats that, you know, 100 means league average. So 210 means he was more than twice as good as the average hitter. The major league leader last year in that same stat, WRC Plus, Aaron Judge at 204. And no other qualifying hitter was better than 172. So I think a lot of people who've been playing fantasy for a long time, they look at the surface level Stetsboro Okamoto,

322 batting average 992 OPS. Okay, but we adjust down, obviously. It's a lesser level of play in Japan. But they've been going through a dead. bed ball era there. It is, offense has been suppressed in a historic way in Japan the last few years. And yet Okamoto put up stats like that.

So that's why I use that WRC plus number to show relative to the league. He was Aaron Judge levels of production. You mentioned he doesn't hit the ball as hard as, um, uh, uh, a Munataka Murakami. And yeah,

I mean, Murakami is supposed to have transcendent power, major contact issues, but, transcendent power. But the only exit velocity data I've been able to find on Okamoto, and it's been cited in several places, was an average exit velocity of 92.4 and a max of 112.2.

It's pretty good. So, yeah, I mean, it doesn't get much better than that. It can get better than that. Like, you know, Aaron Judge is averaging like 94 plus, but 92.4 is still really, really high-end, 112, a good max exit philosophy. I don't know that I entirely trust those numbers, but I have seen them cited in multiple places. And that leads me to believe, if anything, we're underselling Akamoto's power because we're constantly comparing it to Murakami's.

And, like, it's legit. Plus, the strikeout rate is a third of what Murakami had, basically. So great contact skills. Obviously, the production is there, the power. Okamoto is sort of my ultimate fallback option at third base. If I can't get one of the true standouts there

and there aren't many, then he's the one I want. I think that's a clean sweep for us on Okamoto as a sleeper. I think we all had him listed in our sleepers. The one thing I will point out though is Okamoto's 2025 was better

than Say Suzuki's best season on a rate stat basis that WRC Plus, you mentioned. But Suzuki was better the previous four years when he came over. It was 195, 158, 178, 179. He has settled in as right around a 125 WRC plus player. So, you know, I do think even accounting for the dead ball, I think there's going to be plenty of room for regression.

But if all Okamoto is is an 800 OPS 20 to 25 Homer guy, I've made the comp to like the St. Louis. it the early St. Louis version of Nolan Aronado. I know that he's kind of, you know, his name is mud to us these days. But remember, those first three years in St. Louis, Nolan Aronado was a consistent 25 to 30 home or 95 to 105 RBI guy. And I think there's a chance, Okamoto, he's opening the season with third base eligibility. I think he's going to get outfield eligibility relatively quickly.

There's a chance he gets second base eligibility. I don't know if it's like a good chance, but the way they've, like, I think some people were a little scared off by the like, oh, he's a utility player kind of talk that that happened after he signed. I don't think that means he's not going to play every day. No. I think it just means he's going to be a part of the mix of match. He could play the outfield was something. But I think once the Blue Jay signed, it's like, yeah, he's going to be third base. No, I'm glad you make that point, though, about I am not saying that just because he had a better RFW.

And I know you don't think of that, but I'm not saying just for the listeners saying that just because he had a better WRC plus in Japan last year than Aaron judged in America. But he's got to be as good as Eric Judge in America. You do have to adjust down some. But I think the adjustment, some people are taking that adjustment too far, especially in light of how good the exit velocity readings appear to be for Acomoto. All right, let's take a quick break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. and let's continue on with some sleepers very quickly because we do have to get some breakouts.

So Chris, I'll go to you on this one. If you want to just go and like rattle off a few sleepers you really like this season, go for it. Yeah, I really like Kyle Manzardo of the Guardians. He hit 27 homers last season. They started playing him a lot more against lefties down the stretch. I think it was seven of their final 10 games against lefties he started. I think there's a chance he's an everyday player

and is a very, very, very cheap source of 30 homers, 236 ADP. So I really like Kyle Manzardo. I think he can hold his own against lefties. I really like Justin Crawford, who is, I think, fairly rated as a real-life prospect, but probably underrated as a fantasy prospect because his limitations in real life don't matter as much for us.

I think he's going to play pretty much every day for the Phillies, just because what else are they going to do in center field? He may not be a great center fielder. He's probably not going to hit for power. I think he's going to hit for really good batting average. I think he's going to steal a bunch of bases, and he's going to cost very, very little. Right now, Justin Crawford's ADP is 308.9.

I think there is a lot of upside there. I'll also throw out in that same range of the draft, Chase the Lodder, who we don't really know who he is, but again, he's going to play every day for Cleveland. They need offense. Scouts have loved his hit tool, just his bat in general. And when he's been on the field, he's been very productive. So I think Chase DeLotter is being slept on outside of the top 300.

And then a couple of pitchers I really like. I'm a little bit surprised we get to call this guy a sleeper, but Chris Boobitch's ADP is outside of the top 220. Scott and I spoke about this yesterday. I mean, it is just baffling. Look, I get it, right? like we have a very limited track record of success. It was only 120-something innings last season.

But boy, were they really good innings? And reason to believe in him before that even. And if he can't stay healthy, he costs you the 220th pick. Who cares? Like, there are some pitchers in that range with plenty of upside. Andrew Abbott is going in that range. I think he's a fine pitcher. I think Chris Boobich has a lot more upside.

Jack Flaherty, Merrill. Kelly, like, these are useful players, but if Chris Bubich gives me 140 innings next season, I feel very confident that they're going to be very, very good ones. So I love his price. I think he's wildly undervalued. And another one that I think is just a victim of the fantasy community's devotion and appeal to roster resources, which is a great resource. I think they're very useful. But we tend to treat them as if they're gospel. And they're just making educated guesses like all of us. It's not even day.

It's one guy. Yeah. Parker Messick of the Cleveland Guardians is not currently projected to be in Cleveland's rotation. And then you look at the guys who are projected to be in their rotation. Their three through five is Slate Cicone, Logan Allen, and Joey Cantillo. I'm sorry. None of those guys should be in the rotation ahead of Parker Messick. And if they are, none of those guys.

are going to stay in the rotation ahead of Parker Messick. Like they could all be fine innings, eaters types, but I think Parker Messick's really good. And we saw a taste of that in his 39 and 2 thirds innings last season. He put up a 272 ERA, 314 XERA. He's got phenomenal control. He's got a little bit of that Matthew Boyd, like funky lefty, deceptive lefty thing going on.

Despite only throwing 92 miles an hour on average, it's a really deceptive for Seamer. His change-up is outrageously good. I think Parker Messick is one of the more slept-on pitchers for fantasy in 2026, and I will take him with one of my last picks every time if he's there. Yeah, I wrote up a bunch of those guys on Sleepers 1.0 as well. I had Messick in there as a deep name. Boo bitch for sure.

Last year, Boobich, 14.4 fantasy points per game. That was better than Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan Framber Valdez. Those guys are all being drafted inside the top 100. His swinging strike rate was about the same as Garrett crochets. Yeah. So Chris Bubich, very good. Assuming he's healthy, right? Like rotator cuff, it's a serious injury.

I get that. I mentioned this yesterday. Cole Reagan's returned from a rotator cuff at the end of the season, and he looked like himself. So it's not apples to apples. Everyone's different. I get that. But I think it's proof of concept that Chris Bubich can return from this injury.

Hopefully we'll see him in spring training and hopefully he looks like himself. Because last year himself was his self was very, very, very, talented. Justin Crawford just want to quickly mention, if you're looking for this year's Chandler Simpson, like, you don't want to draft Chandler Simpson at 150, you know, take the guy at 300 who should hit for batting average and maybe steal 30 plus bags.

Like, yeah, I think that could be Justin Crawford. It's his job to lose. They see... He doesn't have Simpson's upside as a stolen base threat. Right. Like, he can't steal 60, but I think he could steal 30. And I think he's a safer bet for playing time in Philly than Chandler Simpson

is in Tampa Bay. There's real risk Chandler Simpson, I would say there's a non-zero chance Chandler Simpson does not make the team out of spring training. Yep. Here's the issue with Justin Crawford and Chase DeLauder as sleepers. And I just feel, I feel like I'm kind of stuck with all the rookies because there are so many rookies who are being floated as this guy could make the team. Those two. You got Connor Griffin. You got Kevin McGonagall. You've got Cole Emerson. You got Colin Casey. You got Carson Benge.

J.J. Weatherholt. J.J. Weatherholt. And I am sure there are half a dozen other names I'm not mentioning. And it's just like, I could wrap my arms around all of them sleepers if I had even a vague concept of who's really supposed to make the team. And maybe they all could. I mean, teams have been more aggressive about promoting these guys from the start. So I just, you know, we're going to have a. Sleeper's 2.0. I hope to know more by then and maybe we can really zero in on which of them

are going to make it. I mean, De Lauder almost certainly will because he debuted in the postseason. Dave Dombrowski has said, our plan is for him to be our starting center fielder. And you look at the roster, I don't know what the alternative would be. I guess Brandon Marsh, but him being Justin Crawford, by the way, just remind us. Justin Crawford. Yes. Yep. Scott, why don't you rattle off a few kind of rapid fire sleepers here. Yeah, I've only got, well, I've got a bunch more, but only two more that I wanted to talk about here, which were Sal Stewart, who his case is going to sound a lot like Carter Jensen's actually, because you're talking premium exit velocities. Let me see if I could find the exact stat for you. So in the miners at AAA, where we had measurements for these,

he's slashed 315, 394, 629 in his 38 games there. Average exit velocity, 93.1, max 113.7. That's basically Fernando Tatis, how hard Sal Stewart was impacting ball in the minors, came up to the majors, hit four home runs in his first 11 games. Terry Francona stopped playing him for some reason, too many players, I guess, even though they were fighting for a playoff spot, Sal Stewart was killing it. I think that contributed to the front office's decision of trading Gavin. in Lux because now, come on, Terry, you got to play.

Sal Stewart, what else are you going to do? Those two, him and Spencer Steer should split first base in DH roles. And this is a guy also in the miners who had great plate to split the route. Like, that stood out even before the power for Sal Stewart. So I'm envisioning a cross between Josh Naylor and Vinny Pasquantino, maybe with even like a small dose of Naylor's newfound base stealing. but not going to steal 30 or anything, but he could steal maybe a dozen. Stuart, if everything breaks right.

Very excited about him as a cheap corner infield pick. And then also Marcus Simeon, who everybody has written off in fantasy, and I just think that's premature. I know he's 35. I know it's been a couple years of underwhelming production. But he being a guy who comes about his power more through optimal angles rather than making premium hard contact has especially suffered from the power drought we've seen during the colder months at the start of the year. Through May 28th last year, he was hitting 173 with a 485 OPS, Simeon.

But thereafter, in far more games, 71 games thereafter, 270 batting average, 12 home runs, 8.01 OPS. That's Prime Simeon, baby. And furthermore, he's with the Mets. now and I mentioned how he relies on angling the bat for power. City Field is a perfect place for a right-handed hitter to do that. Statcast, expected home runs by ballpark says he would have had 20 more home runs over the past three years playing every game at City Field. That is a huge number between the way he performed in those last 71 games and the way

that park should play for Cindy. And I still think there's something to like here. I'll just point out on simeon like when we're talking about an aging player what I like to see is the sprint speed hasn't totally fallen apart the defense is still elite that's just that he hasn't totally physically collapsed yet this year is George Springer baby I mean I think that was all of our pick when we did this exercise last week I know we're not alone in that call as well so yeah that's um I I think uh I like Marcus Simeon as a sleeper a lot. He might have been on my sleepers list too, actually. Yeah, he was actually on mine too.

So there you go. Clean sweep. If you need a late round, boring middle infielder, veteran guy, I think Simeon could turn out to be solid as well. You mentioned the names here. I will just quickly remind people a trio of shortstop prospects

that we should all be very excited about. Connor Griffin of the Pirates, JJ Weatherholt of the Cardinals, Kevin McGonagel of the Tigers. If you're drafting right now, these prices are really, really good on these guys, just because we don't know if they're going to make the roster for their respective teams. But Griffin's right around 195, Weatherhold is 220, and then McGonogles

down around 300. So if you're doing early drafts, like take advantage just because we don't have information right now. But as soon as they start performing well in spring training, if they do, that those prices are going to skyrocket on all three of those names there. And I will mention Robbie Snelling of the Marlins. I don't think that the Marlins would go out and trade Ryan Weathers and trade Edward Cabrera if they didn't have confidence in some of the other names that are coming next. And that includes Robbie Snelling. It includes Thomas White. I think White is the better prospect long term, but I think Snelling will get the first opportunity. And I think he's really, really good as well. I think maybe sometimes people gloss over Snellings because they want to get to

Thomas White and White has ridiculous strikeout stuff. But Snelling is really, really good, man. I'm telling you, strikeouts, he gets ground balls, he limits hard contact. He went deep into his starts last year too. I think there is a lot to like about Robbie Snelling. I think he's in the opening day rotation for the Marlins. Not pitching on opening day, but I think he will be in that rotation. Let's get into breakouts, and I will quickly just piggyback Scott off of your South Stewart call here. I have him in breakouts 1.0.

We saw him a little bit late last season, everything that you mentioned. I really just think he does everything that you want a hitter to do well. He has a good eye at the plate. I think it's a career 390 on base percentage in the minors, career 13% walk rate. He makes a lot of contact, has never had a strikeout rate above 18% at any level in the minors,

and he hits the crap out of the ball. You take that entire package, you put it in Great American Ballpark, that is a recipe for fantasy success. So I am right there with you. I mean, while I was writing him up today, I was like, man, I really have to hit up Scott to try and trade from him in the Dynasty League

because I am so irrationally excited about South Stewart. I think he's going to be really, really good right away. I don't think you're going to get them. And so many people tried to last year. I don't know. I got some guys. Let's talk. We'll see what we can do.

You're with your best shot. And I'll reject. No. Sal Stewart, by the way, the ADP for him is 206. I think it's a little bit deflated because people don't know exactly where he's going to play.

But with Gavin Lux's getting pushed out, I think there's a clear opportunity at DH. I think he could appear at first base a little bit. Brian Hayes is a wizard defensive. I get that. But if his bad is just truly awful, like, yeah, there's a chance that he could just lose playing time.

If Sal Stewart's bad is that good and they just need to find ways to get him in the lineup, I think that's, they'll just do what they have to do. I think South Stewart is that good. So, uh... Derby second.

He played both of those a lot in the minds. Yeah, like, possible. Matt McLean has not done much to deserve a guaranteed starting role all season. Like, there could be, if South Stewart's, this is one of those ones where,

the upside compounds, right? If he's as good as we think he is, the playing time's going to be there. Maybe it's a little frustrating for a few weeks, and, you know, he's, South Stewart is going to be out of the lineup that first Sunday of the season and people are going to lose their minds.

And maybe he gets a couple of extra days off early on. Like, that's just one, that first Sunday of the season, everybody's out of the lineup. Like, that's just how managers like to approach. it, don't overreact to it. But South Stewart is one that even if the playing time is not quite every day early on.

Be patient, man. Be patient with him. If he hits, he's going to play. And if he doesn't, who cares, right? Like that's, at the price, it's just all upside. Yeah, 100%. All right, Chris, let's go right back to you. Hit us with a breakout that you really like this season.

All right, so people like to quibble about like the definitions of these things and like, oh, Jackson Merrill already broke out. but like bounce backs are breakouts okay let's these these categories are just I like this guy I think he's going to have the best season of his career and I think that's what we're going to see from jackson Merrill Scott I'm going to mute you don't say anything about Jackson Merrill I know you hate him Jackson Merrill was playing through all kinds of injuries last season he was hitting really he was hitting over 300 that fuzziness is happening what's going on I think that's Scott

trying to destroy he's trying to derail yeah he's trying to derail You're Jackson Merrill. I see you. No, he was hitting over 300 when he had his concussion in June. He came back after like five days or seven days, whatever it is. But the effects of that can linger. He was really bad for a couple of months. September, he hit seven home runs, had an OPS over 900.

I really think the explanation for Jackson Merrill is that he just was not healthy. This is a guy a year ago we were talking about as a top 25 pick, someone we thought was going to be a second or first round pick for the next half decade. And I still think that upside is there. His ADP is like in the 70s or 60s. I will take that chance on Jackson Merrill every time. I think that dude is just a hitter. His ADP right now is right around 69 as the 14th outfielder off the board for Jackson Merrill.

Last year, that was 27.9. So, you know, second, third round pick in a lot of drafts. You're getting obviously a deflated price tag year over year. I agree with you completely, Chris. I'm right there with you on Jackson, and Merrill. I think what he showed as a rookie, like, you don't have that good of bat control and the ability to hit for contact and batting average and power and chipping a little bit of speed without being a the real deal, like just a legitimate hitter. So I buy that and I think the injury

excuses are real. I actually just recorded our Padre's team preview earlier today with Jake Gariani, who he's a TV reporter out in San Diego. And he said he has talked Jackson Merrill a lot. in the clubhouse and Jackson himself has brought up like, yeah, this is the first time my life. I was really injured like this and it was really, really hard for me to battle through. And they think he's going to have an even better season than his rookie season. So just one man's opinion. But yeah, I am buying that. I'm in on Jackson Merrill as well.

Scott, let's go over to you, a breakout that you were excited about this season. A breakout I am excited about and am trying to draft in every league is Kyle Bradish. Now, I should not have to call Kyle Braddish a breakout because the last time we saw Kyle Bradish pitch extensively, he finished fourth in AL-Sai Young voting. But nobody seems to remember it. That was just 2023. And it's like everybody has amnesia about how proven and good this guy already is. He comes back from Tommy John last year and looks even better. His K-per-9 rate 13.2 in the six starts he made,

which would have been at 1.5 strikeouts per 9 better than any pitcher with 100 innings. Now, because of those six starts and beginning with that down-ballot-Zay-Young season, 44 stars now left, 44 career starts for Kyle. Braddish, he has a 278 ERA, a 105 width, and 10.1K per 9. Like I said, 13.2 in the last six starts, but still 10.1

in the last 44. I don't know what more you need to see here to be convinced this guy as an ace. I've taken him as an ace in a league where I really went thrifty at starting pitcher, and I think I would expect him to live up to it.

As long as Kyle Bradish stays healthy, I think he will be in the Siong conversation again. The control is good. In addition to having that big swing in this ability, he worked six plus innings and three of his six starts back, right immediately back from Tommy John surgery. By virtually every indicator he's an ace, and I think even just looking at his own track record, he's an ace.

So Bradish, I shouldn't have to call him a breakout, but by the way everybody approaches him, I'm calling him a breakout. I mean, he's kind of the breadstick breakout this year, right? It's like, everybody is, everyone I've seen seems excited about Kyle Bradish this season. There's the other one. Oh, yes. There's the other one who's now priced himself out of my range. We will talk about Ben Rice, who I mentioned earlier.

I'll talk about Ben Rice in just a second here. But yeah, I mean, they're kind of like the two, right? The two obvious, like everyone loves these two as breakouts this season. I've made this comp before, and I'm not saying that Bradish is going to go on to win back to back to back Sy Young Awards. But Terrick Scuba, when he came back in 2023 from his injury, he made 15 starts. And he was really, really good in those 15 starts. We didn't exactly know how to treat him the next year in fantasy.

And his ADP was right around 50. And, you know, people seem kind of divided like, you know, do I spend a pick that high on a sample size that small? And obviously, Scoobel went on to do amazing things. I think if you just put the last two seasons together, we get a 14-star sample from Braddish. which is very similar to what Scuba did back in 2023. And he's actually going later than where Scuba was going. So it's not the same exact thing, but it reminds me a little bit about how, you know,

we didn't really trust that small sample from Scuba. And if you drafted him, obviously you benefited a ton that year. Let's talk about Ben Rice because obviously everybody is excited about Ben Rice. If you take one glance at his stat cast page, it is covered in red. He ranked 92nd percentile or. better in ex-Woba, XBA, X-Slug, average EV, barrel rate and hard hit rate. He pulls the ball in the air playing in Yankee Stadium, and he is a cheat code. He has catcher eligibility, and he's expected to be a full-time first baseman for the New York Yankees,

playing against both righties and lefties. Here's the problem. How much do you actually love Ben Rice? Because his ADP in January is now inside of the top 50 picks. Wait, do we skip to the bus segment? No, no, Chris, no! Don't tell me that. I mean, that's what it comes down to. How much do you love Ben Rice?

And it's at a position at Catcher that we mentioned earlier. Like, there's a lot of talent. So you kind of wrestle with, you know, do I use a fourth or fifth round pick in a 12-team league on Ben Rice when we're expecting to take this huge jump forward? Like, would anyone be surprised if he hits 280 with 35 home runs this year? I don't think anybody would be surprised by that. but you kind of have to pay the price to find out. Well, he kind of has to do that.

Like, not all the way, but he's going ahead of like Devers and Harper, like guys who have done this. William Contreras was, I think, a top 15 overall player in 2024. I still have Contreras ranked ahead of Ben Rice myself. I do too, yeah. So I, listen, I still, and I preface this saying, you know, the way his ADP is trending, I might not be able to draft any

of Ben Rice, but I'm going to head ahead in making the breakout case for him because it is a very exciting case. I mean, he's so under, he was one of the biggest underperformers in terms of the expected stats last year, XBA 283 while he hit just

255. X slug 557 while he slugged just 499. Still, you know, still good numbers out of the surface, but he dramatically underperformed the expected stats. And normally that's a pull air rate problem. His pull area was phenomenal and it may be playing the best venue for polar rate from a left-handed hitter. So like you could see, particularly without a playing time, why he could just totally go supernova here. I want to make the case because not every league is what NFBC is showing over the last month. I just did. I just

did a mock with industry people and you know where Ben Rice went in it, 64th. That's perfectly reasonable. Yeah, that's fine. That's perfectly reasonable. And he may go that late in your draft and you can throw a parade if he does that and you can get him and feel good about it. Don't reach for him. Don't

let it become like Lawrence Butler last year because obviously he could go the other way. One downside risk you didn't mention Frank. Now that they have Cody Bellinger back and Trent Grisham and Jason Dominguez, you know, four outfielders for three spots, Bellinger might slide over to first base some days.

I don't know. So, you know, the downside risk needs to be said. But the enthusiasm, the reason for it is justified. Just, you know, remember it's not a sure thing. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll rattle off a few more breakouts and we'll wrap up with busts right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. All right, Scott, let's rattle off a few more breakouts here.

who would you like to talk about? Yeah, Chase Burns. This is my favorite of the rookie pitchers, and I think he's kind of one people are leaping on. So let me give you some numbers for Chase Burns. So obviously the ERA ran hot 457, but 344XERA, 265. The stuff was knock your socks off good.

Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, nobody had more than 11.9 K-per-9. Burns was 13.9. Obviously a much smaller sample, but still very, very impressive in terms of missing bats. He had a higher swinging strike rate than everybody but Terrick Scouble, at least among qualifiers.

So he was up there with giants, all the giants in terms of the plainest indicators of pitching dominance. This is my favorite Bernstat, though. So he made eight. starts that was the sample eight starts double-digit strikeouts and four of them for the eight starts double-digit strikeouts chase burn that's more than paul skeins has had in his entire career 55 starts and all so yes chase burns is going to be very good and i think it'll be this year

uh von her only eight pitchers had more double-digit strikeouts than chase burns last season and he did it in a five-start span. Yeah, yeah. Wild. Avon Herrera, I made a reference to him earlier. He's DH only right now, but he's supposed to pick up catcher eligibility. He had to abandon it in the middle of last year because he had an elbow issue that he had surgically corrected.

I think it was a bone spur. He's supposed to be back to catching, at least in a backup capacity. We'll regain eligibility there. I'm not sure he needs it to be a great, hitter in fantasy. And you don't really have to look beyond the top line numbers. His 162 game pace was 29 homers. He hit 284, reached base at a 373 clip.

3.08 head to head points per game for Ivan Herrera. That was more than Mani Machado, Vinny Pasquantino, Jaron, all of whom are going more than 100 picks earlier. And Herrera, even, he stole eight bases in 107 games. There's a lot to like here. I think maybe the hesitance is DH only. Okay, like I said, that won't be a permanent situation. But also, I don't think people realized how regularly he played

because he got only the 107 games missed some time with injuries. But after returning from the last of his IL stints, Herrera started 65 of the Cardinals' final 66 games, all but one. He's an everyday player who will soon have catcher eligibility. and, you know, performs like Nanny Machado on a per game business. What more do you want than that from Yvonne Herrera? People have caught on. Yeah, his ADP is on the rise. He's up to 150, which is still like too low.

Perfectly fine, yeah. But it was like a month ago, it was 200. Now it's 150. Yep. So a month from now, it might be 100. Dalton Varshow is, I think, more like 200, where he's going. And I think at a glance, okay he hit 238 20 homers typical varshot season

well it was only in 248 at bats because of all the time he missed so like you know it's it's you're not having to dig deep to find out there was more going on here his average exit velocity rose by two to three miles per hour which is a enormous jump from one year to the next so he went from impacting the ball like nolan shanuel to impacting it like kyle tucker that was the improvement in Zipelosity for Varshot.

You pro-rate those 20 homers over a full 162 games. It comes out to 46th. Now, he wasn't quite playing every day down the stretch, but that was more because he was just coming back from injury. He started

every single postseason game for the Blue Jays, and they played a lot of them. So I think we can trust Varsho as an everyday player. John Schneider, his manager, compared this mechanical adjustment. Farshow made to unlock more exit velocity to the one Jose Batista famously made for the Blue Jays in terms of

the kind of impact he thinks it's going to make on Varsho as a hitter. And look, 46 homer pace last year. Proofs in the pudding. I'm not saying you draft him like a 46 homer guy, but I think he's going to blow a lot of people away in terms of how many home runs he hit. Maybe upward of 35 if he truly is an everyday player, certainly worth the investment at the going rate.

And you don't have to draft him like a 46 home run hitter. His ADP is 198 over the past month, Scott. You're drafting him as a 20 homer guy. Yeah, pretty much. You're drafting him as who he's always been. As who he's been, yeah. Yeah, except he took a huge step forward last season. We just didn't get to see enough of it because he dealt with some injuries.

Chris, why don't you rattle off a few breakouts here? All right, Kate Smith. I actually don't think he's even going to improve. He's just going to be a closer for the first time for a full season. But I think he's the number five closer right now in 80s. he has best closer in baseball upside. And I mean that in terms of skill over the past two seasons. No pitcher in baseball has a lower fit than Cade Smith.

But I also mean it just this is a team that over the past half decade has just churned out 40 plus saves. Manuel Class A led the American League in saves three straight years. I think he came one save short of leading the majors in saves three years in a row as well, which has never been done before. Cade Smith might just be as good as a manual Class A, except he also has 100 strikeout upside. So I, I, even as the number 5 RP off the board, I think Kate Smith's a fine value.

He's one of the few cat relievers I think should actively be trying to target. I love Ryan Pepio. I was coming out of the 2024 season, I had said on this podcast, I believe, Ryan Pepio is going to be one of my breakout picks. I think I said on the last podcast of the season, and then they left Tropicana field, one of the best pitchers parks in baseball for George M. Steinbrenner,

one of the best hitters parks in baseball. Well, we're back in Tropicana. That fastball is going to be elite again. I think the whole arsenal, the slider, the change up to cutter is really good. And Brian Pepe has got 200 strikeout upside this season and could be a low 3SRA guy. I think that was my pick for this year's Brian Wu

on the pod last week. I think so, yeah. And then Luke, Scott and I are going to fight. Luke Keishel and Jackson Meryl. He hates them. I love them. They're my... I didn't put Keishel in my bus. Hey, they are...

You know what, Chris? Scott hates Ryan Pepio, too. We learned that yesterday. Wow. Well, Scott hates all my beautiful baseball boys, but I don't care because I think Luke Keishel's a 40 steel guy who's going to hit 15 homers and score a bunch of runs. I am very excited about him at the top of the Twins lineup. Those are my breakouts. There's more on the website. You know what, Scott? I think it's time for you to put some peasant. Pepio in your stepio. Let's go. Two to one right here on the podcast, the Pepio boys.

I will quickly just mention the two. You know what? I didn't even think of it like that, but maybe I shouldn't have told people that. I think you can make the breakout case for any of the second year pitchers. Nolan McLean, Cam Schlittler, Treyia Savage, Bubba Chandler, list goes on. For me right now, based on ADP, Chase Burns as well, based on 80s, the two that I like most are Cam Schlittler and Treyi Savage. Spoke a lot about Trey of Savage yesterday.

Cam Schlittler, he's kind of a throwback pitcher. He throws his fastball over 50% of the time, but it's just a really, really good fastball. And I know some people might be worried about that, like are the secondary is good enough? I looked into some of the data on his sweeper and curveball in the minors. It was pretty good data. He got a lot of whiffs on those pitches.

So I think if he needs to go to that, he can. Like, that's a weapon he can go to. I'm just surprised at how reasonable his price is. Yeah, I think Camp Soutlers right around 140 and Trey Savage 165. Like, yeah, let's let's do that.

Nolan McLean is the only one of those guys who's getting pushed way up. I don't understand. Yeah. But I'll take it. The other name I just wanted to quickly mention, you can read about this. My breakout to 1.0 coming out on the site on Wednesday. McKenzie Gore. We have said it. Change of scenery, baby. You know what? He's going to a pretty good

place to pitch. Texas Rangers did a great job with their pitchers last year. And since they've opened Global Life Field, it has performed like one of the best pitchers parks in all of baseball. So he might just to Marcus Simeon's great frustration. He might be a Charzard, Scott, but maybe, just maybe McKenzie Gore isn't. And maybe he's just a beast. Five pitches with an above average swing strike rate and whiff rate. I'm in. I am in. Let's right. He might be a Charzard that wasn't trained by Ash Ketchum. I said it. I said it.

He messed it up. I like that. He messed up his Charazard. Finally, someone is coming after Nepo Baby Ash Ketchum. You got the Charizard at a level where he would listen

to the commands that you give him. You know, if you train it too far, yeah, you get the badges and then he'll listen to you. So that's what has happened. McKenzie Gore, we've got the badges. He's going to listen. He's going to be amazing this season.

Let's wrap up with bust. go a little bit longer here. And Scott, let's start with you. Who is maybe the bus call you are most passionate about this season? Oh, I got to say Alex Bregman. I'm planning my flag in that one, mostly because the pushback has been so enormous every time. The Cubs fans are coming for you, Scott. Yeah, I mean, so here's the thing.

like everybody acknowledged this until it happened that Alex Bregman, given the way he comes about his power, with not very impressive exit velocity readings, but power to the pole side, if he ever left venues that were tailored for that swing as the Astros Stadium, as the Red Sox Stadium, as they both are, it could spell trouble.

And he just happened to go to the one with the deepest corners in baseball, the way the fence at Wrigley Field juts back out at the corners, 3.55, and we saw it play out with not as an extreme a version of this hitter, but a hitter of a similar type, where he comes about his power less

through just hitting the ball hard than angling it perfectly. Issoc Perretti's made that same move from Houston to, or actually he went from Tampa, which is also 315 in the corner like Houston is, two Wrigley, then to Houston. So 2.315 in the corner with the 355 in the corner in between. And then with the 355 in the corner,

Isak Perid is hit 223 with three homers and a 633 OPS in his 52 games with the Cubs. So it was a big problem. Now, I don't think it's going to be as big of a problem for Bregman because he's not as extreme as that. he hits the ball harder than Paredes, he doesn't rely on pulling it to quite the same extreme angle. But I do think it's going to be a problem. People will point out that expected home runs by ballpark for Bregman, that stat cast number that we cite so often when players change teams,

actually shows him hitting one more home run in Wrigley Field than he actually had. But I have researched this. Now I have found that Wrigley Field is especially difficult for Stackcast to model, both because of that unusual shape of the outfield fence and because of the wind conditions. It's the most wind-defected ballpark in baseball, and it's been especially pitcher-friendly as far as that goes. I think the wind was blowing in three times as often as it was blown out last year. So that's going to hurt Bregman. And his fringy, I mean, just from a...

scouting standpoint, fringy power that Alex Bregman has. So I think the worst case scenario for Bregman, something like a 235 batting average and 15 home runs with the Cubs this year. I will hedge my bet a little and say 243 batting average 17 home runs. That's presuming good health, obviously. So I'm not saying he's going to be entirely useless in fantasy, but he's obviously, that would be his worst season and it would make him a disappointment as he going great. So Breggman, I'm standing by it. I think Wrigleyfield is what we're going to see for the first time how he fares at a park

that's not geared for his swing and I don't think it's going to go well. I will admit that there is a clear level of unknown with Alex Breggman where we just don't know. We especially with the wind, we just don't know like the past two years the wind has been blowing in and it has made it more pitcher-friendly. And, you know, something like that, it can affect Alex Breggman's batting balls because he doesn't really impact the ball as hard as other people do. I will just mention that there is an article on the athletic right now. Someone actually tweeted us at it yesterday.

And I was trying to scroll through it now to see what it's said. It's written by Sahadev Sharma, who covers the Cubs. And basically quelling any concerns that people might have about Alex Breggman's swing. And the thing that Breggman brings up most himself is that he, hits the ball a lot to left center field and in Wrigley you can still make that work. I don't know if I believe him, but I'm just telling you what is said in the article, Scott. So other people can go read it and I guess make their determination on Alex Spregman for this season. Chris, let's go over to you for a bus pick that you are quite convinced on.

Right. So there are some bus that are price-based bus. Like Ben Rice is a price-based bust. I think Nolan McLean is a price-based bus. They're just too expensive for what they're likely to provide. And then you have the guys that are the classic busts. And that's what I think O'Neo Cruz is. To be clear, I also think his price is way too high. I think O'Neo Cruz is like one of the most bafflingly priced players I can remember in a long time in fantasy. We just watched this dude hit 200.

We just watched this dude hit 200 despite being Shield. from some of the toughest lefties on the schedule. And he's a top 100 pick. How badly do we need stolen bases in this environment, where stolen bases have never been more plentiful, that we're pushing O'Neo Cruz up to a top 100 pick when he hit 200 with 20 homer, 62 runs, and 61 RBI. He was a sub-replacement level player for fantasy

at every category except Stollinger. in bases. I think he was like the 170th hitter in fantasy last season, and that's a top 100 pick because he stole 38 bases. I just, I cannot make any sense of it. If you, like, I get that there's still theoretical upside. This guy hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball. He is a freak athlete. Maybe he figures it out. We're still doing maybe he figures it out with a guy who's 27, who has what, 2,000 plate appearances, 1,500 plate appearances under his belt. I just, I don't know, man.

Like, what is the realistic ceiling for O'Neill Cruz? What he did in 2024? Okay, 21 homers, 72 runs, 76 RBI, he hit 259. Like, that's probably worth a top 100 pick if he steals 35, 40 bases, but I think there is legitimate playing time risk for O'Neill Cruz. This is a hitter who

cannot hit lefties. Straight up, maybe he figures it out, but right now, based on everything that we've seen from this guy at the major league level, he is coming off a season where he had a 260X Wobah against lefties. That is unplayably bad. He had a 42% whiff rate.

He struck out like 36% of the time. He's not such a good defensive player that you have to keep him in the lineup when he's not hitting. I think there's real risk that Uno Cruz is just a platoon bat in 2026 on a Pirates team that actually is trying to win games. There are paths to significant upside. I can see him hitting 230. I can see him not killing you a batting average.

I don't think any of that is anywhere close to the most likely scenario. I think I rank him around 150 and even that makes me really, really nervous. The ADP for O'Neill Cruz is 98.6 in January as the 23rd outfielder off the board. I agree with you. I wrote him up in Bust 1.0. He is unplayable in a points league, at least last year's version of O'Neill Cruz. I guess devil's advocate is that if he gets anywhere close to the batting average that he had just two years ago when it was 259, you know, if he hits 250 plus with 20 to 25 home runs and 40 steals, like, yeah, that player is definitely worth the top 100 pick.

I mean, he's getting drafted far lower than he's ever been drafted before. Yeah, that's probably fair. I just think there's a wide range of outcomes with him. Like, yes, he can get back to doing that, or the other way it could go is he hits 200 again, and he starts to lose playing time against lefties, and he is just an unplayable person for fantasy. Like, that is in the range of outcomes, I think.

Yeah. I mean, we don't need to get into this now. I know we're going on, but I don't totally buy that his playing time is in jeopardy. He had a 400 OPS against Lefties last year. But it's the Pirates. Yes. As much as they may say they want to compete.

I look at their roster. The Pirates can find a 405 OPS somewhere. I don't take it seriously. Yes, but development of O'Neill Cruz, the guy that they've sticked their whole franchise to, is probably more important than winning an extra game or two because you get a guy with a better OPS against Lefties in there. Out with the old, in with the new. I think we're done with that. It's Connor Griffin's team now.

I think we're done with the participation trophy stuff in Pittsburgh. They need to get about a half dozen more good hitters, I think, to be done with that. All right. Including in center field. Yeah. The bus pick for me that I am probably most passionate, most worried about this player this season. I'm sorry, Scott. It is Spencer Strider.

Now, last year he was coming back from the internal brace surgery, and it is entirely possible that getting one year further removed from that surgery, that he will look, more like the pitcher he was before the surgery. But the last we saw of him, Spencer Shrider was broken. His fastball was not anywhere close to what it once was. The velocity was down almost two miles per hour. The induced vertical brake on that pitch was down two inches exactly from before the surgery. The whiff rate on his fastball dropped from 29% in 2023 down to just 15% last season. So he went from being a two-pitch pitcher who had two elite.

pitches to basically being a one pitch pitcher. He still had a really good slider. And even the slider took a little bit of a step back, but it was still very good. He's broken right now. And he could show up in spring, and there could be more velocity, there could be more ride on the fastball.

He could get whiffs with that pitch. Or he could, you know, develop a third pitch, a curve ball, change up, a split, or whatever it might be. And I could change my tune. But the last we saw of Strider, I think that he is broken. And I will not be using a pick anywhere.

I think he's going just inside the top 100. Like, there's no way. There's just no way I can draft him knowing what we know right now about Spencer Shrider. So basically every pitcher has dropped in the ADP in the month of January. So he's down to 112. Okay. But relatively speaking, he's still around SP 30, it looks like.

So I just think that's way too high, yeah. Yeah, I have him closer to SP 40. I don't have him where Nick Pollack does at SP 8. 80, but yeah, it just, where he's going right now, I'm just not going to take that chance on Spencer Shrider. Scott, let's go back to you. Why don't you just rattle off a few bus picks here? Okay.

All right, so Nick Pavetta, I have as a bust this year, and I had him as a sleeper for a breakout, one of those two last year, and obviously he came through. So why do I have him as a bus now? Well, even though he performed well, pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment for the first time, he lost a lot of what made him so exciting in the first place, namely his ability to miss bats.

Normally he was 10. I'm sorry, 10K per 9 or sometimes even better than that. Dropped to 9.4K per 9 last year and 8.5 in the second half. So like a below average source of strikeouts in the second half was Nick Pavetta. His swinging strike rate lost nearly a full point from 20, 24. 10.5%, which is about as middling as it gets. So it worked out, but he went from being one of the biggest underachievers

by the ERA estimators to one of the biggest overachievers, 287 ERA versus a 395 XERA. And 349 FIP, actually the ninth biggest overachiever in both of those stats was Nick Paveta. And I think, you know, maybe it's just a flukeye loss, that swing and missability, but he's also 33. So maybe it's just a sign of decline. I think given his current cost,

I'd rather just let somebody else take the chance. I'm sorry, he's 32, not 33. The point is he owed, though. Trevor's story, I think, is probably the easiest bus call I have. It was great last year, 255 homers, 31 steals, played 157 games. He averaged in the previous three years. averaged 54 games. So I don't, it's, I don't know why some players get the injury prone tag and some

players don't. Yes, he happened to play 157 games last year, but he has a long history of not playing many games at all, does Trevor's story. And you don't have to look back far to see it. So between that and some truly dreadful plate discipline, his, uh, his strikeout rate was only 12th percentile. His walk rate was only 10th percentile. It was overachieved in XBA. There are just so many ways this could go wrong for Trevor's story. And there are so many great short stops and some very interesting ones going after him even that I'm not that motivated to take him. I would expect Trevor

Story to be discounted in the same way we saw Jerks and Profar discounted last year. We're like, oh, yeah, he was great. We don't really actually believe it, do we? It's not happening. He's going more at face value, and I don't think it makes sense. And then finally, I'm going to mention Jacob Mizorowski here, who made the All-Star team after five career starts, obviously was the talk of the town at that point, and kind of cemented his name in the minds of fantasy baseballers as, you know, the next great young pitcher. and it just kind of stayed there, even though kind of crashed and burned at the end of last year. Final nine outings had a 589 ERA, a 150 whip, nearly five walks per nine innings during that time, which was a recurring problem for him in the minors.

That was the hurdle he couldn't clear, just strike throwing. And it came back and reared its ugly head for the majority of his time in the majors last year, very inefficient in those final nine starts as well, only three of them. of the nine did he go the minimum required for a win. So, I don't know, maybe he makes a huge leap this year. The stuff is obviously good for Mizorowski, although, you know, the secondary arsenal, I have some questions about how good that really is,

if it's mostly just a fastball. But kind of like with stories, so many ways this could go wrong for Jacob Misarowski that this relatively low percentage chance of it going very, very right, especially since he's being drafted in the same range of so many interesting upside arms that I think are safer, I don't see myself with any shares of Jacob de Zarathki this year.

I will quickly piggyback off of the Trevor Story Call. I had both him and Buxton together on my bus 1.0. And it's really just, and I've talked about this before, a mental thing for me where last year was the year to draft them. Their ADPs were outside the top 200, and now story is around 100, which isn't terrible when you consider he finishes the 33rd overall player in fantasy last season. But it's also just like, yes, you're paying 100 more spots than you did last season.

So I'd rather just find this year's Trevor Story. Like, let me find the injury risk that I can get at a discount. And hopefully they stay healthy and just have a big season. So I don't want to bank on both Buxton and Story to stay healthy again this season. So I will not be using top 100-ish picks on either of those guys. And same with the Dodgers. not all of them, but for Blake Snell and Tyler Glassnell. Snell, look, if he stays healthy and throws 180 innings,

he's probably going to win the Siam. He's done that twice in his career. He's won the Siong twice. But every other year that he hasn't, it's been a lot of injuries. And he quietly is a whip concern. Like his whip is consistently around 120. Like, he's not a good whip pitcher.

So Snell, no for me. And Glassnow, along with all the injury risk, he actually saw some skill decline last year. Yeah, he got worse. His control took a big step back. It was over four walks per nine. His swinging strike rate dropped quite a bit as well. And I do think for both of those guys in particular,

what matters most of the Dodgers is that they are healthy in September and going into the postseason. So if anything pops up during the year, I think they're going to be really cautious with those two, in particular, Glassnow and Snell. And they will just say, you know what, you need an extra month? Take it. We're the Dodgers.

We're going to win like 110 games. Who cares anyway? So I'm not drafting either. of those guys. Chris, why don't you rattle off your last bust here? Honestly, I think you can make a reasonable case for a bust for every pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation for a lot of the reasons you just said.

True. But I will not be making that case for those guys, except for Roki Sasaki, whose price is actually fine, I guess. I just didn't see any reason to believe last season that Roki Sasaki is. anywhere close to being a majorly caliber pitcher. Even his success out of the bullpen came with bad control, really mediocre strikeout and whiff numbers.

He has a bad fastball that he has not shown he can throw fast enough to overcome the poor shape and command. So I just think Rokie Sosaki, even like 245, this is not a price bust. This is just a, I don't think you're going to get it. anything out of that pick. I'd rather take the chance on the two guys right behind him who are coming back from injuries, who I don't know what to expect from. I'd rather take the flyer on Shane McClanahan and Joe Musgrove. So the Sasaki pick is more a like Bryce Miller's cheaper, Hurston Waldrop, Noah Cameron. Like I think all those guys have shown more reason to be excited than Roki Sasaki. So I just don't,

I think there's the opportunity cost of drafting Roki Sasaki just isn't worth it, even though the cost isn't actually that high. So he's one of my bus. Musgrove is a sleeper of mine, by the way. What's that? Musgrove, you mentioned him. He's a sleeper of mine. I think he was also on my sleeper's list.

Yeah, I think people are genuinely forgetting about how good Joe Musgrove is when he's healthy. And he'll be like 18 months removed from surgery. Like he's going to have a long runway here. A guy that I think has both price bust and just outright, if falls apart, bust risk is Saddam Raphael. Another one that I just, I don't see what people see in him as a 10th round pick. He was the 120th player in fantasy last season, and his ADP in January is 124.

So I guess in that context, it's fine. But I think it's more likely we got close to a best case scenario season from Saddam Rafael as a hitter than even a median outcome. because these skills here are really, really weak. He does not hit the ball hard. He has some of the worst play discipline of any hitter in baseball. He is fast and athletic, but he's not a particularly explosive base runner. He only sold 20 bases last season.

He somehow had – Sinai Raphael somehow scored 84 runs despite hitting almost exclusively eighth or ninth with a 2.95 OBP. I don't think we're getting 84 runs out of Saddam Raphael again. So I think it's, I think it's, you know, decent power speed, I guess, but I'm not sure Saddam Raphael is a better hitter than Zander Bogart's. It's a really hollow 1515.

Yeah. Like he got to 20 steals last year. Zander Bogart's got to 60 steals last year. He hit 11 homers. They're just... Otto Lopez. Yeah, I think I... The nice thing about Center Rafael is he's going to play

because he is such a brilliant defensive player in center field that there's just no reason to ever take him out of the lineup. But if he's bad, that also hurts you. Like more plate appearances from this guy is not necessarily going to help your fantasy team. So I just... I don't see the case for Center Rafael. I think the skills are super weak.

And then here's one that I don't, we may not have mentioned this name all offseason, but I don't think Jacob Wilson's very good. Oh. Or at the very least, I think he's just Luis Raya's. And it feels like people are kind of treating him as if he's materially different than Luis Rai's. And I know Luis Rai's doesn't have a job and Jacob Wilson does. So that, hey, feather in your cap, Jacob Wilson.

that on Luis Arias, but I just, I think Jacob Wilson's a one category guy. I don't see much reason to believe that he is going to be an impactful player in the way Luis Arias hasn't. Wilson did have 13 homers last season. I understand that. His average exit velocity was actually a mile and a half per hour lower than Luis Arise. His hard hit and barrel rates are in like the 10th percentile has 300 expected Woba. 300 expected Wobon contact is one of the worst marks of any hitter. It was better than Luis Ria's last season, but worse than any of Luis Riaz's previous seasons. 10.5% home run to fly ball rate.

He's not a huge pulled air guy. He's right around average, so I don't think there's much reason to expect him to be an average home run to fly ball rate guy. I just think it's a 300 average, and that's it. I just don't think you're going to get a lot of runs, RBI, steals, homers. And if that dips to 280, that's not a useful player. So I just, I think this is another one where the price is fine. I just don't like the player. I just don't see.

I think Jacob Wilson is a one category guy, and it's just, okay, the 170th pick is coming up, and I need batting average, then you can draft Jacob Wilson. I don't see much reason to roster him otherwise. Let me just mention one thing for him. Sure. Because if you look at head-to-head points, obviously when mostly tailoring this discussion for five-by-five categories for Roto Leagues, at head-to-head points, Jacob Wilson was 2.91.

And if you eliminate the portion where he was playing through a fractal, four-armed, it was 3.03. 3.03 compared to Gunner Henderson wasn't even three. Lukie Betts was 3.07. So in that format, because he strikes out so frequently, I think there's a lot less downside for Jacob Wilson. Sure. Yeah.

I agree with that. I think there's also just very limited upside, but yeah, that's fair. And it is worth pointing out his home bar ballpark helps. Yeah. All right. So we are going to wrap there. Just want to remind everyone that by the end of this week all of our sleepers, breakouts,

and busts 1.0 articles will be on the website CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. This was really just kind of an appetizer. If you want all the names and all the analysis, go read all the articles because there are a lot more players that we wrote about. This is just all we could talk about in like an hour

and 20 minutes. And we went super long in our longest part of the off season. Yeah, so here we are. We're going to wrap there for Scott. Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy. baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Thursday night, Friday morning. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.