Fantasy Baseball Today - 2026 Starting Pitcher Tiers! Rankings, ADP, Strategy & More! (1/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: January 27, 2026The Fantasy community finally agrees on something. Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Paul Skenes are the big three (4:53). ... There's a clear second tier of starting pitchers from SP4-14 (15:05). ...... Why is there such an ADP difference between Logan Webb and Framber Valdez (26:55). ... News (37:23): Jose Ramirez signed an extension and Seranthony Dominguez signed with the White Sox. ... The Next-Best Things tier is all over the place but features those exciting second-year pitchers (47:20). ... Why is Kris Bubic going so late (55:32)? ... Should Ryan Pepiot be in a higher tier (1:02:18)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
And first pitch, watching.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Hey there, welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, January 27th.
I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White.
Today on the show, we have starting pitcher team.
years, also some smaller news items to get to, but we are living through the snowstorm of the
century. Although I guess most of the snow has already stopped falling, but I do genuinely hope
everybody watching and listening is safe because obviously there's a lot going on and, you know,
people have lost power and heat and, you know, it's just a crazy time right now. Obviously,
you know, getting some days off from work and kids getting to play in the snow, that's that part
of it's cool, but there are other very serious things going on as well.
Well, Scott, are you safe?
Are you okay?
Where are you?
It looks like you've been abducted.
I am safe.
I have relocated because of the said snowstorm.
I didn't feel like the Airbnb was going to cut it.
And so check my family into a hotel.
And so now we're double booked.
We're paying the Airbnb and paying the hotel.
But yeah, this should maybe today's podcast and tomorrow's podcast should be here.
And you know what?
You may never see the Airbnb again.
I got to say, I got to say they're not because, not because of this,
but because, you know, our time there was ending anyway.
Yeah.
So we, we hardly knew ye, but this is my background, my environment for today.
Big things on the horizon there for Scotty.
Yeah, I mean, look, it's a change.
Scott's here in a fleece.
We don't normally see you wearing long sleeves and everything.
So bundled up, I get it.
That's why I also wanted to point out if Scott looks and sounds a little bit different today,
that is because, you know, we are
podcasting under unusual circumstances right now.
So, and that's part of why Chris isn't here either.
So, you know, we'll try to power through,
but that's just a little heads up for the entire podcast.
Let's get into your starting pitcher tier, Scott,
and let me remind everybody, once again,
that these are Scott's tiers.
They are not tiers by ADP.
We're not just, you know,
grouping these players based on where they're going.
It's, they are Scott's rankings,
and they are tiered together based on groups.
of players he thinks should go in a similar range of the draft.
Also,
I'm serious that you emphasize this for this position.
Why is that?
I don't know.
I must be way out of whack with ADP.
Oh, no,
no, no,
I just started pitcher.
I guess I probably should have emphasized it on other podcasts as well.
Okay.
It's just kind of a heads up, I guess.
I thought you were being passive aggressive.
No, no, no.
Although, maybe, no, there are a few players that I noticed that are out of whack.
Oh, no.
I mean, that is, that is normal.
I mean, that is, you are either much higher or much lower on certain players.
And one more reminder that these are, we're not like deep diving every player on, you know, these tier episodes.
We're really just kind of talking, you know, groups of players and rankings and ADP and strategy and things like that.
Once we get to the position previews in February, that's where we will deep dive as many players as humanly possible.
Let's get into your first rounders tier at starting pitcher.
And we have Terrick Scoobal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skeen.
Scott, it is not all.
that the fantasy community agrees on anything,
but they seem to agree on this.
So last year,
there were three starting pitchers
that returned at least $30 of value in 12-team,
Roto, Category Leagues,
and it was these three.
Again, scuba, crochet, and skeins,
and fantasy points per game,
crochet was number one,
Skeins was number two.
Excuse me, scuba was number two.
Skeens was actually tied for 16th.
That was due to a lack of wins,
but obviously, you know,
his ratios and strikeouts
are amazing as well.
The ADP in January for this group,
scoobel is at 7.5.
Skeens is at 11.3 crochet at 11.8.
And then a big drop down to Yamamoto at 26.7.
So we agree, Scott.
Something that everyone agrees on,
that these three are head and shoulders above the rest,
and they all go somewhere in the mid to late first round.
Yes, scubel, crochet, skeins,
a tier of their own.
and with added emphasis, I would say.
I am more motivated to draft one of these pitchers,
even though it might cost a first, maybe second round.
You know, somebody like Skeens especially can slip into round two.
It's been a few years since I've been motivated to take one of the top-tier pitchers.
But I think these three are worth it.
I think they really do stand apart from the pack in every possible way.
yes, Skeens does have the run support issue,
but it wouldn't take much more
for wins not to be an issue for him.
Because, like, I don't think we've made enough of this,
just the baseball world in general.
Beginning his career, two straight years,
with an ERA below two,
I mean, that is,
that is godly
what Skeens has done to begin his career.
rear and of course there's plenty to go with the ERA but yeah he's great and these other do
a great do happy to happy to spend a late first rounder early second rounder on them the next question
here is why do you have crochet over skeins i know the answer to that but in case you know
someone listening or watching they might be yelling at their device why why scott do you have
crochet over skeins well we've kind of mentioned it a couple times already skeins pitchings pitchings
for a bad team.
I know the Pirates supposedly
aiming to be more competitive this year.
I don't know that they've done enough
to make them actually more competitive this year,
but it does create
an element of risk there for schemes
that I don't think exists for the other two.
And also, Schemes doesn't quite get strikeouts
in the same number as either Crochet or Scoobel.
He's a good strikeout pitcher,
but those two are like 11 per nine,
and he's more like 10, 10 and a half per nine.
So it's a small distinction, but a noteworthy one, I would say.
Skeen's last season was at 216 strikeouts.
Scoobel 241.
Crochet actually led all of baseball at 255 strikeouts.
And as you mentioned, Skeens, only 10 wins.
Crochet had 18.
Scoobel, as great as he was, only 13 wins.
So a bit of a letdown in the wind department last season for Scubal as well.
but as we know, it's not really in the hands of the starting pitcher.
He could just, you know, 221 ERA, he could just do so much,
and it's up to the team behind him at that point.
I do have to ask, while we're quickly talking about Terek Skoubel,
any concern over his velocity jump?
This is something that I've noticed.
I haven't really heard anybody else talking about it,
but over the past two years,
his fastball has jumped up two miles per hour,
and his change-up has jumped up nearly four miles per hour.
So, I know.
sometimes, you know, it's confusing
to talk about because typically
like we want more
velocity, it's good for strikeouts
and performance and things, but it also
could lead to more injuries.
So does that worry you at all with
Terk's scuba? Well, it didn't
until you brought it up, Frank.
That's why I'm here.
Now I'm all kinds of scared.
Don't, don't
invest a first round pick in this guy.
Are you crazy?
Uh, well, I don't know. I mean,
back to back years with 190 plus
innings so clearly it's held up so far for a true ace workload and you know didn't it's not like
it all fell apart the year after the first jump of velocity there so from what we've seen so far his
body can can take it it's if we could really predict when a pitcher's going to get injured
we'd all be millionaires because that's not something really anybody's been able to do with much
accuracy. I don't know. It's it's worrisome, but you could find a reason to worry about any
pitcher's health. And then, you know, we've said it over and over again. Even though, even when you
think you have a rock solid, durable arm, you know, 180 plus innings every year, once you, like,
the year he gets hurt is the year you finally get comfortable with that and think, okay, I don't
have to worry about injuries for this guy. So I'm going to elevate him. And, uh,
You know, it's just the next injury is just around the corner for any pitcher.
I'm not saying some aren't riskier than others, but they're all pretty risky.
Yeah, I mean, perfect examples.
Last season, Logan Gilbert and Corbyn Burns, they were kind of the faces of durability and being a workhorse.
And Garrett Cole right before that, too.
Yep.
And Garrett Cole entering spring training.
Then obviously, I think he made like one or two spring starts and obviously needed Tommy John after that.
So you never know when it's going to happen.
And I guess to answer my own question, I still rank scubel as my number six overall player in both headhead points and rotos.
So while it is something that's kind of like on my radar, I would still draft him as a mid-first round pick.
So for whatever that's worth.
Before we hit our first break, I have a lot of programming updates.
So here we go.
First, starting next week, we will have five podcasts per week once again.
We will be live on YouTube Sunday through Wednesday nights.
and then we'll record a mailbag at some point throughout the week,
and that will be out on Friday.
So you will have a podcast in your audio feed
Monday through Friday for the month of February.
Next, I have a fun YouTube-only project
that I'm recording with Tanner Bell later this week.
He is the co-author of the book The Process with Jeff Zimmerman,
but Tanner has this great draft software
that he's going to do a tutorial on,
and he's going to walk us through how to use it,
how to customize it.
that will be YouTube only, and it's coming out on Wednesday afternoon this week.
Speaking, Thursday afternoon, excuse me, Thursday afternoon this week.
Speaking of Thursday, Nick Pollack's pitchcon is this week from Thursday through Sunday,
and it is a four-day online baseball conference that is free to watch.
I believe it starts at 11 a.m. each day and goes, I don't know, all the way it's like 8 or 9,
8, 9 or 10 p.m., something like that.
But you can watch it for free.
You go to pitcherlist.com slash pitchcon or Twitch.com or Twitch.com slash pitcher list.
And while the event is free, please, if you can, make a donation.
100% of donations will go to ALS1.
I will be on this Thursday on pitchcon at 3 p.m. Eastern Time talking starting pitcher sleepers.
And Chris will be on Sunday at 7 p.m. Eastern Time reviewing injured players for 2026.
And lastly,
Ariel Cohen is joining us on the pod this Thursday night
slash Friday morning to talk ATC projections.
That was a lot.
Let's take our first break right after this.
Welcome back in.
We're talking starting pitcher tiers for 2026,
and let's get into the elite.
Buckle up, we have 11 names here.
That includes Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Gilbert,
Christopher Sanchez, Brian Wu, Max Fried,
Hunter Brown, Hunter Green, Cole Reagan's,
Blake Snell and
Jacob de Grom. This is
a group that we've talked a lot about
already this all season and we've referenced
if you miss out on the big three
there's this next clear tier
from SP4 through 14 in Scott's rankings
which I pretty much agree with me
with the exception of Blake Snell
but the ADP of this group
starts with Yamamoto around pick 27
all the way down to Blake Snell at pick 82
So it seems like the drafting public is kind of tired of what we've been dealing with with Blake Snell here.
But if we take a closer look, Scott, Yamamoto at 27, Christopher Sanchez at 32,
then it drops down a little bit to Logan Gilbert at 39, and then a lot of these names are just kind of bunched up together.
And both you and Chris have said this often.
After the big three, there probably should not be a starting pitcher drafted in round two,
and maybe not in round three either.
Like maybe we should just wait until round four to take a lot of these guys.
That's not the way it's going to play out in drafts,
but at least from a tiering perspective, that's how it should be.
Or that's how you should draft.
Yeah, I agree with that, obviously, since I've said it before.
I don't even know that in round four.
I mean, looking at the size of this tier, looking how far it extends, you know,
it kind of depends when the elite hitters,
across all positions, once they're all gone,
then maybe I'll start to,
I'll think about taking a pitcher from this elite tier.
It's almost certainly not going to be Yamamoto.
He just gets priced out of this range.
But I've drafted, you know, Chris Sale as my ace before.
A lot of times he tends to slip into round five or even around six of a 12 team or as possible.
I've drafted Brian Wu as my ace.
Max Fried is my ace.
Hunter Brown is my ace
Cole Regan's as my ace
I'm fine with any of these guys as my ace
You get to Snell
You get to DeGrom
There are a few more worries there
The two at the end of this tier
They certainly have the upside
That puts them in this tier
I mean they have Sion upside for sure
But injury history
For both of them
I think the injury concerns
Are still greater for DeGrom and Snell
Which is why I don't think it makes
A lot of sense
To tier them separately
If you don't want Snell
in this tier fine, you probably shouldn't have DeGrom in this tier either, especially since
at this stage of those career, I think Snell's the more dominant of the two as well. But if the
hitting values are just too good and I keep passing up some of these elite arms, then if Snell
and DeGrom are one of the last two left in this tier, then I would take them, obviously. I'd rather
have somebody from this tier than nobody from this tier. So I'm going to put you on the Scott,
the spot, the spot, I'm going to put you on the spot, Scott,
and ask, when do you think those elite hitters,
when do they start to dry up?
When have you, when does it dry up in your rankings?
When do you notice it drying up in drafts?
I feel like, I know in ADP, that first base group of Olson and Devers,
Harper, they typically go in like round four or five.
I feel like in the drafts we've done,
they kind of go at the end of round three.
I feel like once that group of first baseman goes,
I'm more inclined to start looking at a starting pitcher.
What do you think?
Yeah, that's what I was thinking too.
Now, looking back through my tiers at first base,
that's technically the near elite tier at first base.
There's kind of a bit of a naming inflation,
both at pitcher, starting pitcher, and catcher.
What the tiers are named gets inflated a little bit
because I think those two positions on the whole,
You kind of degrade them, or at least you should, when you're approaching the different positions in draft.
Those two kind of take a step back from all the others.
So when I said I would not look to draft any of the elite at starting pitcher until the elite at all the other positions were gone.
And maybe more like the near elite, certainly at first base, because I was thinking that same group.
Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Raphael Devers,
Pete Alonzo
If they're still there
I'm probably not looking to take a pitcher yet
If they're gone
You know
Obviously it could be a weird draft
Where somebody great remains from some other position
But usually the way it plays out is once those first basemen are gone
Okay, I can think about taking a pitcher at that point
If you miss out on one of the big three starting pitchers
Again scubel, crochet skeins
Do you have a rule about how many you should get
from this tier, does it matter?
Do you need one, two?
I mean, if the hitting value
is just so great, can you just skip out on this tier
completely?
Realistically, based on the plan I just laid
out, I'm only getting one.
If it is
a draft where I take one of the big three,
and
so I'm, you know, I've
already, I've already, I've already taken
a pitcher,
um,
and that group of hitters
is gone. Rather than reach for a hitter,
would I take a second pitcher? I'm pretty sure I did have a draft earlier where I took both
Terrick Scouble and Crisail as two of my first five picks, I think. So I'm fine with that.
You know, I don't want to, I don't want to force anything. I'm very much about, particularly
given the state of drafting and fantasy baseball right now, where it's hard to get an edge on,
on your competition in terms of just
I evaluated these guys better than you did.
Like everybody's so sharp with that now.
Like I would rather try and get an edge
by just accepting value when it falls in my lap.
So if that means, okay,
I already took a starting pitcher
and a starting pitcher here is clearly the best player available
in round five.
Okay, I'll go ahead and do it.
I'll just have a really strong pitching team,
hopefully barring injury.
It's a little riskier, obviously not the ideal,
but I'd be willing to do it.
Mm-hmm.
And I mentioned this before.
I'm still in a 12-team NFBC slow draft that's going on.
I had picked 12 out of 12 teams.
And I took crochet at the 1-2 turn.
And then I think at the 5-6 turn,
I just didn't really love the hitters that were there.
And Cole Regens was still there.
So I said, all right, you know,
it's much easier to take Cole Regens
when you have one of those big three starting pitchers.
You can, you know, take on a little bit more risk.
So I said, all right, you know,
Regens falls as far.
I'll go ahead and take them.
So I am not opposed to doing that either if that's the way that the draft falls.
I know Yamamoto has got a hit hitting really hard after that, though, for sure.
Yes.
I don't know that I did it enough, but.
Yeah, you do feel like you're playing catch up basically the rest of the draft.
But it's, I think it could work.
You just have to, again, it's not the ideal, but I think it could work.
Yep.
Yamamoto, I know has been a, you know, lightning rod of a topic this offseason.
he was so great in the post season.
He won World Series MVP.
I get why he's ranked as the SP4.
I was going to rank him as the SP4
even before that dominant postseason.
Me too.
But based on...
No, I have sale ranked fourth.
Never mind. I'm alive.
Yeah, I think you have Yamamoto.
You have Yamamoto at 5, right?
So, not far off.
The way that the tiering system approaches,
the tier way to draft,
is that I'm just not going to draft Yamamoto.
If I know I can get
You know Hunter Green or Cole Reagan's not saying they're exactly the same picture as Yamamoto
If I can get those guys two or three rounds later
I'm just I'm not gonna take Yamamoto where I need to get him
And I'm just gonna wait and grab you know some of some of the other pitchers within this tier that I know I can get a little bit later on in the draft
Just wanted to quickly once again mention the ADP like some of these names feel a little bit disrespected Scott
Max Freed is down at 61 and just like he was a top ten
pitcher in fantasy last year.
I mean, I know under the hood, he was, it was a lot of the same things that we've seen from
before, but, you know, there was a V-Lo jump and he made some changes with the Yankees.
So he, he might just be a better pitcher.
But him going at 61, and I know for you at least, Snell going all the way down at 82
is, it's probably a surprise based on ADP.
I'm probably not going to draft him just because I'm done.
Like, I'm washing my hands of Snell and Glass now.
But those two obviously stand out here based on the,
other names that are in this tier? Yeah, the freed disrespect especially, I don't understand
because I feel like this is the first year we've seen it widespread like this. And he had arguably
from a fantasy perspective his best year. I had doubts going into last year and I know I wasn't
alone in this. Just some of the arm issues he was dealing with during the end of his
Braves tenure, it seemed like it was building up to something more serious.
Yeah.
But he threw a career high in innings last year, right?
It was never an issue.
And obviously, performance-wise, he was great.
So, no, he's not the biggest bat minister.
He never has been.
That's never scared anyone away from him before.
He's very consistent with ERA.
Going to be a great source of wins, as always.
And, you know, the whip is good, too.
So strikeouts is the only way he's falling short.
and it's not like it's a big problem.
He's just a little underwhelming as far as that goes.
So I know he wasn't for the whole year,
but Hunter Brown,
you look at his second half strikeout rate,
you look at his swinging strike rate.
I don't know that Hunter Brown in the long run
is going to be an order of magnitude better
than Max Breed for strikeouts
and nobody has any doubts about putting him in this tier.
So yeah, I think Max Breed is somebody
I'm going to be heavily invested in
just given that he goes so much later the most of the names in this tier.
All but Blake's now.
Yeah, Freed a career high, 195 in the third innings last season,
and did get to 189 strikeouts.
I was completely out last year.
I was very worried about like the forearm and elbow stuff that Freed dealt with in the past,
but he just went out, took on an ace workload,
never had any issues with his arm.
He did deal with a blister thing midseason.
That has been a consistent issue for him.
but he eventually righted the ship
and I think the final month and a half
was still really, really good for Max Freed.
So he does feel a little bit undervalued
based on some of this early ADP.
And Freed and Snell, by the way,
they're thinking, Roto, five-by-five context.
That makes for a nice, nice little pairing there, those two.
Oh, gosh.
They complement each other well.
They do.
One's healthy, one's not, right?
Yeah, I mean, the Blake's Nell thing.
I wrote them up in Bust 1.0.
I get it.
Like if you can stomach the roller coaster ride and yearly IL stint,
although the two years that he was healthy, he won Sy Young.
Like I totally get it.
I just, I know myself as a fantasy manager.
Those listening, as long as I've been here, you know,
I tend to get a little emotional at times in season.
I just, I know myself, I can't do the Blake's knell thing.
If you can stomach it, then draft him at 80 and you'll probably profit on that.
But he is a frustrating one at times.
The near elite tier includes 13 names, Spencer Schwellenbach,
Jesus Lazardo, Logan Webb, Framber Valdez,
Freddie Peralta, George Kirby, Kyle Brannish,
Joe Ryan, Shohei Otani, Tyler Glassnow,
Yuri Perez, Dylan Sees, and Nick Povetta.
The ADP range on this group starts with Logan Webb at 64,
and it goes down to Framber Valdez at 100.
So actually pretty narrow range, 35 picks of ADP,
about things to know about this tier.
Frambervaldez remains unsigned.
Freddie Peralta was traded over to the Mets
and Dylan Cs signed with the Blue Jays.
And just a reminder that Otani is just one player
on both CBS and NFBC,
meaning you have to choose whether to use them as a hitter
or a pitcher before lineups lock in your league.
Actually, in CBS Sports Commissioner Leagues,
you have the option of making Otani one player or two.
Okay. Yep, that is.
I know our default setting is one player,
but it is good to bring that up as an option
if people want to do that.
Yahoo, Otani is just two players.
He is Otani the hitter and Otani the pitcher.
So if you want just Otani the pitcher,
he is in this tier, the near elite tier.
And he should be based on the way he pitched down the stretch.
These are definitely your SP2s in fantasy, right, Scott?
Because, I mean, I guess if you just keep getting great hitting values
that you just can't pass up,
I could see just winding up with one of these names as your SP1
just because, you know, again, you couldn't pass up the hitting value.
But I think ideally there are probably SP2s on your team, right?
Yeah, I think so.
Could you make it work with two of them if you get left out of getting a true ace?
Yeah, I think you could.
I think I'd be even more likely to do that in a points league, actually,
where you don't have to, you don't have to build in that ratio base
that's hard to make up for later in drafts.
I think points leagues have held the reputation over the years of that being the league
where you have to emphasize pitching.
Because on the whole, they score, the way they compare to hitters in just total point production
swings it a little more in their favor.
But that's on the whole.
I mean, there's also, it's also a much more forgiving position in points leagues.
where there are only so many pitchers,
only so many starting pitchers in a categories league
that are even worth bothering with it all
because a large percentage of the position's
just going to wreck your ratios
and you're going to regret having ever known them, you know?
But in points leagues,
you can do pretty well streaming scrubs off the waiver wire,
playing matchups, playing two-star weeks.
And you could also apply that logic to the top of drafts
when you're filling out your pitching staff.
You don't necessarily need to spend big on a guy
who's going to be a dominant ratios guy
because it's more about volume in a points league.
So I think especially in that format,
if you wanted to go Logan Webb, Framper Valdez,
is your top two.
I think that's going to be great
because both of those guys throw a lot of innings.
Yeah, their whips could be better,
but they're going to score you some points.
I'm happy you brought up those two names too, Scott,
because again, those are the two that cap this tier
in terms of ADP.
Logan Webb is at the very top.
Framber Valdez is at the very bottom.
I understand people are probably worried about
Framber Valdez not being signed yet,
and maybe where he winds up getting signed.
I mean, he's such a good ground ball pitcher.
It probably should work out regardless.
Hopefully he doesn't go to a team
with a terrible infield defense.
But I view those two very similarly,
Webb and Valdez,
just from a skill perspective,
and they're going three rounds apart
in a 12-team league right now,
at least based on ADP,
it might not be that way in every draft,
but it kind of surprises me
that they're that far apart right now in ADP,
three rounds. Yeah, Framber Valdez
is sort of the same as Max Freed for me
where, okay, why are people
backing down now? I know he had a rough
second half
until his very final start when he struck out
10 and seven innings, but the reason
Frommbergandez had a rough second half is
something we've seen so many times
in recent years. He just has stretches where
he has the feel for the curveball,
and he's dominant, he's getting double-digit,
strikeouts when that happens.
He's the best Bromber Valdez we've ever seen.
And he has stretches where he loses the field for the curve ball.
And he had one of those stretches in the second half.
And I don't think it's anything to worry about.
I don't think it should change your evaluation of him in fantasy.
I know just from monitoring these things in NFBC specifically over the years,
anytime anybody's a free agent.
We've talked about this a lot.
They're like nobody wants to draft them for whatever reason.
They just think he's never going to sign with anybody ever, I guess.
but Fromber Valdez obviously is
it'll probably be a contender
and he'll probably
if you're drafted on NFBC right now
you need to get as many shares as you can't have out
because it's only going to go up from here.
I think I've drafted three or four teams so far
four.
I think I have Valdez on three of them
and it's I didn't really want it to work out that way
I had Valdez on a bunch of teams last year
and obviously that second half was very frustrating
but to me he's just a screaming value right now.
So, yeah, I'm totally fine to just kind of gobble that up.
At some point, I think it probably does have to factor into our ranking of him for the season.
What point is that for you, Scott?
Like, if we get to pitchers and catchers reporting mid-February, Valdez is unsigned,
or spring games are starting up in late February and he's still unsigned.
At what point do you actually start to downgrade him a little bit for not being signed?
Yeah, I think if pitchers and catchers report and he hasn't,
signed yet, then you worry about is he going to be ramped up in time? Is he saying he's going to be
ramped up in time, but he actually rushes it and creates a whole host of other problems,
which we've seen before for pitchers who sign late? I think if that happened, if pitchers
and catchers report, Valdez not signed, I probably move him to the very back of this tier. I don't
drop them a tier yet, though, you know, the clock starts for that too, but I probably move them to the
back of this tier, which would mean behind Nick Povetta in terms of overall ranking.
One other name I want to mention in this tier is Yuri Perez. Why do you have him in this
tier, the near elite, and not the next tier that's coming. That includes a lot of these young
breakout hopefuls. I think the simplest answer is I want Yuri Perez more than Dylan Cise and Nick
Pavetta, but I think Dylan Cesar and Nick Povetta belong in this tier and not the next one.
So Yuri Perez just rides their coattails in because I want him more than those two.
I think he is an ace in waiting.
Obviously, fresh off Tommy John's surgery last year, there were some hiccups.
But you think back to how dominant he was in his rookie season.
You think you look at how well all of his secondary offerings grade out.
So much swing and miss potential here.
he's healthy.
I mean, even as rocky as it was in his 20 starts with the 425 ERA,
that was with a 105 whip, you know?
Yeah.
And the strikeout rate was great.
Yeah, I wouldn't fixate too much on that ERA for Yuri Perez.
If, for me, he just, he only confirmed coming back from Tommy John's surgery that he is
as dominant as I believed him to be.
So you would be okay with him as your SP2 if that's the way it played out in a draft?
Sure. What's his ADP?
What's rub within this group?
It is 98.7.
So just ahead of Frambervaldez.
It's just a second to last. Okay.
Yep. Yep.
I realize that this is a completely unpopular opinion,
but I think Gary Perez is overvalued right now in drafts.
I see the walks and the fact that he gives up a lot of barrels,
a lot of hard contact in the air.
It's a good ballpark to do that in Miami,
but walks coupled with barrels
kind of worries me
because those can turn into like
multi-run homers
with guys on base and stuff
and we saw that in that stretch
where he really struggled
he had a six-star stretch
with an 853 ERA
where his barrel rate
was 11.4%
he was giving up a lot of hard contact
and it could just be him
working back from
Tommy John.
I totally get that
and he could make me look
very foolish
and become one of the best pitchers
in baseball.
I personally just think
that he's a little bit
overvalued right now
I probably won't wind up with a lot of Yuri Perez if this is where his ADP remains.
Let's take our final break.
Winnery Return will quickly hit some news and notes and we'll have more starting pitcher tiers right after this.
Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today.
Let's quickly run through the news and notes.
We have not been live since Thursday night, so there's been quite a few things that have happened.
Jose Ramirez signed a seven-year, $175 million extension with the Guardians,
and he's 33 years old,
will seemingly spend his entire career playing in Cleveland,
unless some crazy trade happens.
I don't even know if he has a no trade clause he might,
but obviously he's performed really well there for fantasy,
and it's nice to just see a star player remain on one team for their entire.
It is, but the kind of money we've been seeing star players get.
Jose Ramirez is an obvious Hall of Famer.
Yeah, he's also 33 already, so, you know, he's getting,
there still i mean i just find you somebody who loves you like hosea ramirez loves playing for the
cleveland guardian because he has given them a hometown discount i think would be the best way to
describe it um more than once now more than once like he doesn't want to leave that place he could
have made so much more money i'm sure he's got plenty of money to live off of the rest of his life
he doesn't do anything he doesn't make any bad investments or anything
but he could have made so much more.
Left a lot on the table to stay in Cleveland.
That's all I'm saying.
And I kind of wish the Guardians loved Jose Ramirez
as much as he loves them
because they routinely have not really invested much around him
on their team, right?
Like, you know, they routinely make the playoffs
and they're a good team,
and Stephen Vogt is a great manager.
But, you know, if he had a little bit more talent around him,
maybe they could go a little bit deeper into the postseason.
but that's been a pretty consistent problem,
I would say, for the Cleveland Guardians.
On Friday of last week,
we learned that the White Sox signed Sir Anthony Dominguez
to a two-year $20 million deal,
and Jeff Passon added that Dominguez will be the team's closer,
which we love it.
Bullpen clarity.
I mean, we don't get that very often.
But last year, Will Venable,
I believe first year manager,
did not really have a set closer for the entire season.
So I believe this report.
I think Saranthian Dominguez will be the closer to start the season.
Maybe Will Vennibal just felt he never had a reliever as good as Sir Anthony Dominguez to just make the closer.
But Scott, how much did you move him up in your rankings after signing with the White Sox?
So I moved him up to, at least in a five-by-five context.
I moved him up to 20th, I want to say, which puts him kind of in that,
Pete Fairbanks
Who else is in that range?
I had of like Ryan Walker, but behind Pete Fairbanks.
I think you have
Dennis Santana in that range as well.
Right.
But I think I even prefer Dominguez to him
because we have a little more clarity there.
It is just expected to, I think,
is how Jeff Passen put it on it.
I don't know about you,
but I look to see if I could get any confirmation
from somebody in the White Sox organization.
I couldn't find it.
But I sometimes just,
overlook things.
I didn't see it anywhere either.
I'm just trusting Jeff Passon.
It just seemed like that old passing thing was on it.
Now, Dominguez has been a closer in the past a few times.
So I was actually surprised to see his career high and saves is only 16.
I was back as a rookie.
So it was always just for part of the year he was closing.
So he's not the most tested in this role.
And he's had some ups and downs over the years.
He did introduce a splitter to his arsenal last year, though.
and now he's got like three pitches with huge whiff rates.
So seems like he took another step forward there that might make him,
might make him a good fit as a closer.
Walk rate was higher too.
That was kind of the tradeoff that seemed like.
So the whip was a little higher than we like for a closer.
But I think he could do it.
If the white socks are committed.
And I have more hope actually for the white socks.
Talked about the pirates earlier with Paul Skeen's,
then trying to take a step toward contention.
I think we're going to see more improvement from the White Sox than the Pirates even.
Not that they're going to sniff contention, but I see more areas where they're expecting to get better.
And Sir Anthony Dominguez, I'd still predict fewer than 30 saves, but maybe he could get around 25.
It is a possibility he could get traded too, but it's a two-year deal.
So perhaps that wouldn't happen until next year.
The strikeouts were great, up over 11K per 9, 13.7% swinging strike rate.
but you mentioned those walks.
Over five walks per nine for Dominguez, that was a career high.
My guess is that should settle back down a little bit closer to his career norm.
But, you know, mid-3 ZRA, 1-20-ish whip, something like that,
20 to 25 safes, you know, low-end RP2, high-end RP3,
if you like to draft a third closer in a Rotel League for this season.
And I think that spot where you put them in the rankings is perfect, Scott.
I moved them down to RP 23, but it's basically the same spot.
It's right between Dennis Santana and Ryan Walker, so I agree completely on that.
The Giants signed Harrison Bader to a two-year $20.5 million deal.
He's 31 years old, actually had a very solid offensive season last year.
Hit 277 with 17 homers, 11 steals, 796 OPS over 146 games.
He struck out more.
He also barreled the ball more than ever before, and routinely does a good
job pulling the ball in the air. So I don't really worry much about San Francisco for him.
I worry about whether or not he can maintain this level of offensive production. So,
Scott, do you have any interest in Harrison Bader in five outfieler leagues?
Not really. Not really. I could see him, I could see drafting him as a seventh outfielder in a
15 team league.
But I don't have much hope for him
sustaining the production
he showed last year near 800 OPS
when usually he's below 700.
There is a little bit of speed there,
but yeah, I don't think San Francisco's
the best landing spot for him.
It's worse for lefties than righties,
but even so.
Harrison Bader's a guy when he hits home runs.
They're not going very far.
And you hate to see him play
in a big ballpark like that.
Yeah.
The January 80,
for Bader is 381 that's just behind
Isaac Collins, Dominic Canzon, Cam Smith.
He probably moves up a little bit, but I don't think it will be
all that much for Bader. It's good news for Giants pitchers.
Their outfield defense was awful last season,
one of the worst in all of baseball, and Bader is still a strong defender
in centerfield. So good news for Giants pitchers this upcoming season.
Next up, we are still trying to figure out where
Esoc Paredes will play for the Astros this season.
And over the weekend, manager Joe Espada said Jose Altuvae will play second base almost exclusively this season.
And then he said that Paredes will get some reps at second base during spring training.
So, Scott, I have no idea.
Yeah, it does seem contradictory, doesn't it?
I don't know either.
I think, and this is why I remain hopeful that Paredes playing time won't be an issue.
I think the Astros are really motivated to trade Christian Walker.
I think that's what they want to happen.
I don't think they've found a taker yet.
And maybe they won't.
Maybe they will.
I think that is what they're hoping happens
and that it clears up the logjam that way.
And I think there's still something in the tank there for Christian Walker.
At a good second half,
the underlying numbers didn't change that much from previous years
where he was good and earned that contract from the Astros.
So maybe it'll all sort of.
itself out. It is
a situation where
it needs to happen sooner than later. We need to get
some clarity on Issoc Peridus's
playing time or else I'm going
to have to lower him in the rankings.
I don't want to do that.
I think the Astros
know what they have in Esauperitas. I think they know
he's the perfect player for their venue
to maximize his value
and they want to get him at bat.
But, you know, they were kind of
pinned in a corner
last year and had to get Carlos Correa to
They'll in for an injured parade is, and now they have this log chance that they're trying to sort out.
A couple of their items here.
Max Scherzer is waiting for the right opportunity to sign with a team, and he could wait until after opening day to do just that.
Bryce Miller has added 12 pounds over the offseason and touched 98 miles per hour during a recent throwing session.
Last year, his season was wrecked by right elbow inflammation, and he is pretty much left for dead.
His ADP in January is 252.
last year it was 88.
And honestly, I kind of agree with that ADP.
I have no idea what to expect from Bryce Miller.
He is somebody to watch very closely during spring training.
Jet Williams said Monday that his positional focus
heading into spring training is at shortstop.
So Joey Ortiz, you have been put on notice.
Craig Kimbril signed a minor league deal with the Mets
that includes an invitation to spring training.
He pitched in 14 games last year and was okay.
just walked way too many, so he won't be a closer anymore, but, you know, I think he's a future
Hall of Famer.
Would be nice to see him get one last hurrah before he hangs it up.
And lastly, there was a report that U. Darvish was retiring, but then he tweeted, not so fast.
He's still rehabbing his elbow.
And if the rehab doesn't go well, then he'll retire.
But he hasn't actually said he is retiring just yet.
Let's get back into your starting pitcher tier, Scott, and next up we have the next best things tier.
That includes 10 names, Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Rogers, Spencer Strider, Chase Burns, Kevin Gossman, Nick Ladolo,
Gavin Williams, Nolan McLean, Traga Savage, and Cam Schlittler.
These feel like SP3s at this point.
Maybe some could be an SP2 in deeper leagues, but I really think you'd rather have these guys at least as your three,
maybe even a four.
The ADP range on this group starts with Nolan McLean at 104.
It goes all the way down to Trevor Rogers at 173.
And Trevor Rogers is my second highest ranked of them.
Go figure.
People hate them, Scott.
They do not trust it.
They do not trust anything of what we saw.
I get it.
I get it.
But like, I struggle with this every year.
I mean, Trevor Rogers was amazing last year.
A RA below two.
Okay, but, you know, there's a league winner.
He was a legit league winner.
So I got a downgrade him.
You know, I don't want to overdo it, but I got a downgrade him.
Ah, what feels right?
I don't know.
I got him about 30th.
That seems pretty low for a guy who just had an ERA below two.
And then you get ADP comes out and people are drafted.
I'm more like 50th.
And it's like, well, I guess I'm going to draft a lot of Trevor Rogers.
I don't know.
that's the market
and efficiency now
is just
players who
everybody has decided
can't possibly
repeat what they did last year
I mean it's the Jurks and ProFAR
situation again.
I didn't go into last year
wanting to draft Jureksson ProFar
but they made it impossible
not to
and of course the PED
suspension
all that time missed
makes it hard to count it as a win
but when he got back from the PED
PED suspension. He was very valuable in fantasy.
So I don't know.
Yeah, I think
Trevor Rogers belongs in this tier. I mean, to me,
the name of the tier here is upside.
Upside. And of course, after what Rogers
just did last year, you have to say, he has quite a bit of upside.
Woodruff, Brandon Woodruff, tons of upside
looked. Actually, he had a career best
strikeout rate. Yeah. Crazy.
For a guy who we used to think of as an ace.
So he still fits the description.
Spencer Strider, of course, we know the upside there.
And then he got all of these young guys, Chase Burns, Nolan McLean,
Traia Savage, Cam Schlittler.
Yes, I don't think you'd want to draft any of them as more than your number three,
but they all have the potential to be your number two.
I guess the only one in this tier who I don't think of as an upside option so much is Kevin Gosman.
but I don't think he belongs in the higher tier
and I don't think he belongs in the lower tier.
So he's just kind of the one who sticks out in this tier.
This might not make sense to people,
but I think Kevin Gosman has boring upside.
Last year he just finished as a top 24 starting pitcher in fantasy.
You might not expect someone like Kevin Gosman to have upside.
And I know when we had Nick Pollack on, you know,
earlier in the month, he kind of spoke about leaning into some of these kind of boring veteran
types that you might not typically look at as guys that have value, but they just, you look
up at the end of the season and boom, you just get a bunch of profit potential.
So, um, remember the Mount Rushmore?
Yeah, who was that?
Well, you called them the Mount Rushmore.
We called it the Golden Girls back now.
Yeah.
I think I should have called them the four horsemen and we could have avoided that whole awkward
exchange. I think it was like Merrill Kelly and Merrill Kelly Mitch Keller was one of them wasn't he?
I'm not sure. No. Was it, uh, Martin Perez was like Miles Michaelis on that on that Mount Rush?
Yeah, I think he was. Two of them were okay. Two of them were terrible is how I remembered
of playing out. But ultimately, I have not revisited that well very often. Look, God's better than
them. Gosman has, Gosman used to be an ace not so long ago, but he doesn't have.
quite this stuff anymore.
But if he performs like he did last season,
like he is a value where he's going in drafts right now.
If he just does what he did last season,
now he's one year older,
there's no guarantee that's going to happen.
But obviously pitches on a great team,
looked much better in the second half,
like pitch very well in the postseason.
I think it's a contract year for Gosman too.
So very well could go out and have another productive season in 2026.
Scott, how is important is it for you within this year
to wind up with one of these young, exciting,
second year starting pitchers,
Chase Burns, Dolan McLean, you Savage, Slittler.
I know some of them still have rookie eligibility too,
but technically in their second year,
how important is it for you to get one of those guys?
Like, is it something you're saying,
hey, going into this draft,
man, I'd really, really like to get one of these young starting pitchers
just because they're so exciting.
Nah.
Yeah.
It's not that important.
They tend to be, with the exception of McLean.
McLean gets elevated beyond the others.
McLean's even going ahead to chase Burns, isn't he?
By ADP?
I think it is close.
Yeah, he is.
Actually, it's not close.
It's like 24 picks.
Yeah, and I think Burns clearly has the most upside of this group.
So I find that Burns and you savage especially are a good value.
So I like them more for that reason than just I have to get the young guy.
I mean, generally speaking, I don't like drafting barely established pitchers
because they're usually going to have limits on their workloads
that more established guys won it.
But the upside relative to cost for Burns and E. Savage, especially,
I find to be really good.
And it's kind of surprising because Burns was like the obvious top pitching prospect
when he got promoted last year.
Yesavage had a postseason performance that,
you know, an eye-opening post-season performance
that made him like a household name, basically.
He did, he had two of those in the postseason.
Yeah.
So you would think they would get hyped.
The hype would price them out of my range.
But that hasn't been the case.
For some reason, they're being faded relative to like Nolan McLean.
Yeah, I am shocked too, man.
By the Trey I Savage price, his ADP is 164.
He is now going behind Bubba Chandler.
He's going 60 picks after Nolan McLean.
Man, I don't know.
Do I have to dig back in and, you know,
I don't know, what am I missing here?
Because when I did kind of like dive deep on all these young pitchers,
the conclusion I came to is that Trey is Savavich.
should be going back to back with Nolan McLean.
Like, I almost ranked Yassavage ahead of Nolan McLean just straight up.
And he's going 60 picks behind him.
Yeah, I think Yassavage is the better fantasy profile.
I think he's going to be a much better strikeout pitcher.
Nolan McLean did have a good strikeout rate for a short time in the majors eight starts.
But his swinging strike rate did not really line up with it, though.
It was weird.
It didn't.
It didn't.
And I think in the long run, he's going to be more of a contact suppression guy.
Deep Arsenal.
of good pitches. I'm not saying Nolan McLean's not a good pitching talent isn't going to have a very
good career. I think he will, but I, well, I have McLean ranked ahead of you Savage, but I'm right
with you. Like, there are definitely arguments for taking his Savage straight up ahead of him,
and he's going 60 picks later. Yep, yep. Give me all of that Trey of Savage if that ADP remains the same.
Let's get into the fallback options tier. 19 names, so I apologize in advance. Shane,
Beber, Zach Wheeler, Nathan Avaldi, Bubba Chandler, Jacob Miziarowski, Emmett Sheean, Tatsuya Imi,
Carlos Rodan, Robbie Ray, Pablo Lopez, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, Chris Bubich, Sunny Gray, Luis Castillo,
Sandy Alcantara, Kate Horton, Shote Imanaga, and Drew Raspicin.
Rasperson, by the way, one tier lower in a head-ed points league because he doesn't go all that deep into his starts.
Things to know for this tier.
Beber, forearm fatigue down the stretch and after the season,
he opted into the one-year player option with the Blue Jays.
Tatsuya Imi signed with the Astros.
Carlos Rodon had a cleanup procedure on his elbow,
expected to return in late April early May.
Michael King is back with the Padres.
Ranger Suarez signed with the Red Sox.
Sunny Gray was traded to the Red Sox,
and Shota Imanaga is back with the Cubs.
The ADP range on this group,
starts with Sunny Gray at 132, which feels really high, down to Chris Bubich at 223.
So nearly 100 picks apart in this range of ADP.
And I understand that a lot of names in this group either dealt with injury all season or
ended the year healthy.
And typically, I don't like that.
But Scott, if Chris Bubich and his ADP remains outside of the top 200,
he will, A, either be my most drafted pitcher,
or B, won't be because me, you, and Chris
will be fighting over him in every single draft this year.
Yeah, yeah, I don't,
I wrote about him, my sleepers 1.0 just came out Monday
and Coupic is in there for the second straight year.
Even though it felt like it was a smashing success the first year,
I mean, I know he missed, was the entire second half
for most of the second, I think just the last two months, right?
the rotator cuff strain,
but not the kind of injury that we're expecting
to have any lingering effects,
or obviously didn't require surgery or anything.
And there's proof of concept now.
Like the strides he made as a reliever,
the gains he made there, carried over into his starting role.
He had a swinging strike rate about on par with Garrett Crochet,
and was great, was great, and should remain great.
If he's healthy, I think given how,
late Chris Boobitch is going.
Even if he was going about, even if he was going more like how I rank him and he's not, he's
going much later.
There's not really much concern about injury because the cost is, you know, your investment
just isn't that great.
Yeah, that's exactly the point, right?
It's like risk versus reward.
He's going outside the top 200.
Yes, he's extremely risky with a shoulder injury.
I totally get that.
But we actually saw his teammate Cole Reagan's return at the end of the.
the season and look exactly like himself coming back from the same injury a rotator cuff
strain that doesn't mean it'll happen the same way for boobitch i get that but no uh it's it's
proof of concept and yeah again he's going so late that even if it doesn't work like okay pick
220 all right like whatever i have i have a feeling i have a feeling if it was just
reported as a shoulder strain which i'm sure it sometimes is like if you didn't get into the specifics
would not be that good but you know there's so many like torn rotator cuffs have into careers
before um but it's just not it's not that level of severity as i understand it yeah and overall
scott i mean there's just a lot of unknown in this fallback options tier right between the
injuries with beber and wheeler and avaldi had a shoulder thing and then sports hernia surgery as
well we got some young guys in here baba chanler jacobobusierowski uh sheen who looked great but again
it's not an extensive track record in the majors.
I just don't really know it.
It's kind of a mysterious tier in that way
where we just, there is a lot of uncertainty within this one.
But it's also guys that I think come with a decent amount of upside as well.
And you're probably getting a lot of these as like your SP4, SP5 in drafts.
Why are Miz Yarowski and Bubba Chandler in this year,
but not in the previous one with, you know,
guys like Schlitler and McLean and Yasevage?
You know, that was something I debated with myself
as I was putting together these tiers
and I think it's easier to leave out Mizorowski
to have him in this lower tier than it is Chandler.
Chandler I really like.
Chandler, I think, is still the best pitching prospect of baseball
which means over Nolan McLean, over a tree is savage.
I think Chandler, from a long-term perspective,
I think he is the surest ace.
as the highest ceiling.
And, you know, he looked great.
The control problems that reemerged to AAA did not carry over to the majors.
In fact, he was about his elite of a strike thrower, very small sample, obviously, as could be.
So I am very high on Chandler.
I have him as one of my breakouts this year.
And if I could justify ranking him higher, then I would be okay tiering him higher.
uh,
Mizorowski I have as a bust.
So that came out for me on Friday,
my busts 1.0.
I think,
you know,
five starts into his career,
he was making the all-star team.
And already kind of became a legend
in the minds of many fantasy players.
But the control problems that defined his entire minor league's day
resurfaced thereafter.
It got pretty ugly at the end for Jacob Misery.
Let's see. I might have the actual numbers here. It was final nine starts, a 589 ERA, a 150 whip, nearly five walks per nine in them. Only went the five innings required for a win in just three of those final nine starts. So like he was useless down the stretch. That doesn't mean he won't take a step forward here in year two. But.
I don't have confidence he will.
And so I don't think I can rank them with,
tier them with the same confidence as some of those younger pitchers
who really showed us a lot in their first taste of the majors last year.
Not to mention guys like Kevin Gosman,
who's in that same tier.
Yep.
The last resort's tier includes 20 names.
So, okay, this will be the last one that I read off, I swear.
Tanner Bybee, Ryan Pepio, Edward Cabrera,
Andrew Abbott, Matthew Boyd, Joe Muskgrove,
Garrett Cole, Mackenzie Gore, Grayson Rodriguez, Roki Sasaki, Merrill Kelly, Shane McClain, Aaronnola, Zach Gallen, Connolly Early, Ryan Nelson, Quinn Preester, Hurston Waldrop, Shane Bosz, and Parker Messick.
Ryan Nelson, by the way, is a SPRP, so has RP eligibility for those in points leagues.
These are mostly your back-end starters, maybe even bench options on your fantasy team.
Things to know about this tier.
Cabrera got traded to the Cubs.
got traded to the Rangers, Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels.
Merrill Kelly is back to the D-Backs.
Zach Gowan remains a free agent.
Shane Boss was traded over to the Orioles and some injuries.
Garikola is coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Won't be back until May or June.
Musgrove is returning from TJ himself,
but he had it the year prior than Garakola,
so he should be back spring training,
everything normal for him.
Aaron Nola sprained his ankle last year.
that kept him out three months, but he should be fine.
And Shane O'Mac, Shane McClanahan, missed all of last season with a triceps nerve issue.
I have absolutely no idea what to expect from him.
I don't think the raise no what to expect from Shane McClanahan this year.
Scott, very interesting tier.
We've got veterans.
We've got injury bouncebacks.
We have young guys.
We have Charizards.
The one that stood out to me most, and maybe the one I was referring to early on in the show,
Ryan Pepio
his ADP is
144
I think I would have him
in the next best things tier
and you have him
down in the last resort
so you'd have him
too higher
yeah I am
full transparency
I am fully buying back in on
raised pitchers
going back into
Tropicana field
and their stuff just playing up
and getting more strikeouts
than they did last year
pitching in Steinberger Field
so I'm just
I'm higher on all the race pitchers in general this season.
Yeah, but was it really just the results that were a problem for Ryan Pepio last year?
I don't even know that I want to say it's a problem.
It's just how much upside do you honestly see here?
Because the walk rate is below average, the strikeout rate is average at best.
He is home run prone, and that was true even before joining to raise last year.
386 was his ERA.
That was with a 436.
Fibb the year before with the Dodgers it was a 360 ERA and a 395 FEP.
So I this feels a little Brandon Foughty to me.
No.
I think he's better than Brandon Fought.
I think he's better than Brandon Fatt.
But I think he's pretty from a fantasy context, pretty average.
So I don't know like clearly I'm in the minority.
Is ADP is much higher?
I've noticed that.
I've taken a closer look and I come away with the same impression.
I just don't see it.
I don't see what everyone else is seeing with Ryan Pepio.
I think, I don't know if it's like you.
They're just saying, okay, back to Tropicana,
where we've never really seen a pitch before.
But, oh, I guess we have.
Yeah, two years ago.
Hang on.
Two years.
Okay, right.
So we have seen him pitches.
Those numbers I gave with the Dodgers,
that was the 360 ERA, the 395.
Sorry, that was actually with the race in Tropicana.
And it was, mm.
But his swinging strike rate that year was nearly 13%.
It was almost 10K per nine.
so I think there's more strikeout upside.
I would expect more like a mid-3 ZRA,
and he's had a whip right at 1-15, two years in a row.
So mid-3-ZRA, 115 whip, almost 10K per 9.
It's still walk issues, still home-run issues.
The strikeouts were better in Tropicana,
but wasn't all Tropicana?
Is that the only explanation for why they dropped off?
I believe so.
I mean.
He went six-plus innings in 17 of 31 starts.
That actually kind of surprised me.
Scott. I viewed Pepio as just like a five or like five and dive kind of guy, five and a third,
but he actually went six plus and more than half of his starts. So,
well, Gennings, but I think the ERA is going to run high. I think the whip's going to run a little
high. I'm not sure the strikeout numbers are going to be worth it. Like I, he needs to be drafted.
He's still in a range here where he's going to get drafted everywhere. But I don't think
there's really much upside to get excited about. I think he's pretty.
mid and you know his fastball part of what made him interesting prior to last year was the amount
of whiffs he got on his fastball it was over 30% in 2024 even though it doesn't really
have the characteristics in tropicana field scott that was when his i know the wiff rate on his
fastball so high i don't know you're putting a lot on
on that. I don't. I really am.
I am fully leading into that.
There has given some hitters difficulty
and maybe, okay,
let's look at his homeway splits in 2024.
Scott, let's meet in the middle.
Move him up one tier instead of two.
Compromise.
I think he belongs in the same tier as Tanner Bybee.
So maybe, I actually did think
Tanner Bybee should maybe be one tier higher as well.
Okay.
So maybe we could squeak those guys in
the fallback options tier, huh?
Huh?
It's something I could think about.
But then, I mean,
do you want Tanner Bybee in the same tier as Bubba Chandler?
As Pablo Lopez.
The Lopez one doesn't bother me as much.
I'd probably just put Chandler in like the one tier higher
with the young guys as well if you wanted to do that.
I could think about it.
I can think about putting by being PEPAO up.
But it would be in the back of the tier
and obviously,
the way everyone else is drafting them,
I wouldn't be that invested in.
And then there is a leftovers tier,
which includes every other picture we haven't mentioned today.
So basically in Scott's rankings from Bryce Miller and Jack Flaherty down,
those are the leftovers.
And once this article is live on the website,
cbsports.com,
you can check out all the names that are in every tier
and kind of review that for yourself.
We are going to wrap there for Scott.
Why was Ryan Pepio so much worse on the road last year, Frank?
Ask yourself that.
So apparently I have an answer to that, I think.
Okay.
I heard this on a podcast somewhere.
Apparently, Enosaris spoke to Ryan Pepio,
and he said there was kind of like a course field thing that happened,
pitching in George Steinbner Field that like when he would go on the road and then come back,
it would like-excus.
Effect the way that his pitches were-
You asked for an answer, and I'm giving you.
There's nothing like Coorsfield.
That's ridiculous.
Coorsfield is like pitching on the moon.
Tampa's not like that.
Have you ever pitched in Tampa?
You've got to ask yourself that.
I have not.
All right.
Well, we are going to wrap there for Scott.
I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.
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And we will be back again tomorrow.
Bye-bye.
Paramount Podcast.
Thanks.
