Fantasy Baseball Today - Aaron Civale Gem & What Went Wrong With These Hitters? (8/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 16, 2022

Aaron Civale was awesome on Monday thanks to that curveball (1:21). ... Joey Bart has been great since returning to the Giants (6:40). ... The Braves lineup is so deep (9:40)! ... Rank Stroman, Cobb and Josiah Gray (11:50). ... Bryson Stott has played very well over the past month (18:25). ... Johnny Cueto just keeps getting it done (23:20). ... News (30:42): Walker Buehler needs elbow surgery and will miss the rest of this season. ... What went wrong with Bo Bichette, Nick Castellanos, Tyler O'Neill and Jesse Winker this year (39:45)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (49:27). Want a spot in our 2023 FBT listener league? You can bid on it with all proceeds going to St. Jude's Children's Hospital here: https://www.ebay.com/itm/374211896271 Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. In the words of the great Scott White, Finney P, baby.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, August 16th. Frank Stamble joined by Scott White. date on the show. We had another gem by a Guardians pitcher, WaiverWire ads and drops. What went wrong with these four hitters this season? A little group that I want to talk about. And team name Tuesday. Just got a few names there at the end. Scott, I don't know why or how, but apparently your voice has kind of turned into Dick Vital's voice and that's where we're at. Vinty P, baby. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know who. I think you said it a little differently the first time, actually. So I don't know. I don't know. You need to work on your impressions there, Frank.

Ah, you know, I mean, there can only be one, Scott. I'm not nearly as good as you when it comes to the impressions. And I will fully admit that. Anyway, let's get into today's action. Oh my goodness gracious. All right, Scotty. We will get to look, Vinnie Pass Quintina homered again. He's awesome. We'll talk about him a little bit later on. Oh my goodness gracious for you, Scotty. Oh my goodness gracious is going to be Aaron Savale. Aaron Savale, the start of the early game, the first game of a doubleheader between the Guardians and the Tigers. And, you know, it's worth pointing out what he did was against the Tigers. But even so, six innings, three hits allowed, 10 strikeouts for Aaron Savale, 18 swinging strikes on 82 pitches. I mean, he looked, he looks like a dominant pitcher, and this is not something we've seen much from Aaron Savalé this year. even for most of last year. And it might be easy enough to leave it as that, okay,

just a weird start against a bad offense, whatever. But his best pitch is a curveball in terms of getting swinging strikes. It has a whiff rate of darn near 50%. Really high. It's a little reminiscent of like David Peterson in that slider and the success he's had throwing it more And that's what Aaron Savali did in this start with that curveball.

He threw it 44% of the time. It was responsible for 11 of those 18 swinging strikes. Normally he throws it only 25% of the time. So he's a guy who's tinkered a lot in his fairly short Major League career, completely remade his delivery heading into last season, which may have been ill-advised. But nonetheless, he did it. And maybe he's tinkering again,

and maybe his tinkering is going to be all for the better. I'm intrigued. I'm intrigued. I'm not saying Aaron Savale is, you know, he's, he, this current week is a two-star week for him with two favorable matchups. So you kind of miss the boat to pick him up as a streaming option.

But, you know, there are probably worse pitcher pickups out there right now than him. I try to think. Would I rather have him? No, I was thinking, would I rather have him than Drew Rasmussen? Because, you know, I was kind of talking down Rasmussen's flirtation with a perfect game yesterday. I wouldn't rather have Sivoli than Rasmussen, but the two are closer than their roster rates would probably have you believe.

I agree with that sentiment. I would still take Rasmussen over Savali, but for the reasons you mentioned, using that curveball and really leaning into it in this one, it has me very intrigued. And on the season, 5.63 ERA overall for Aaron Savali is, obviously quite bad. It is what it is. But the underlying number is 3.715, 3.77 X-FIP. Those are really good. I mean, you know, if he was pitching to those numbers,

I'm sure the roster rate would be much higher than 49%. They're decent. I wouldn't say they're really good, but they're decent. I mean, they're basically in line with someone like Marcus Stroman who's like 75% rostered. Marcus Stroman's gone up because this used to be around 3-2. I think maybe his FIP is around there, His ex-fip might be higher.

Actually, I haven't right here. X-FIP is 324 for Stroman, but you got to reverse. The FIP is high for Strumon. The X-Fip is low because, you know, Stroman's known for being a ground ball pitcher, so you're going to, you tend to get lower X-Fips with that. Let's take a look at the most dropped pitchers from the weekend and see if you would drop any of these for Aaron Savali.

Braxton Garrett actually falls on this list, and I know you kind of expressed some skepticism on yesterday's podcast regarding him. Would you make that swap? for Savali? No, I wouldn't. And I know, yeah, my tone with, I'm taken with Savali is an optimistic tone. And yesterday I was taking a more pessimistic tone with Garrett. And that's, of course, why nuance and context and all of that matters.

It's relative to what I perceive, relative to what I perceive the perception of the picture is right now. And Savale, nobody cares about Savali. but maybe you should just a little bit. A lot of people care about Garrett, and you should continue to, even if there's reason for skepticism. I agree.

I would take Garrett as well. You say Kikuchi, easy, right? Yeah. No, I don't care about you, say Kikuchi. You shouldn't. You say goodbye. I say hello. Kegan Thompson.

Don't care about Kegan, so I'd take Savali. I agree. Nick Lodolo. I feel like that one's a little bit closer. Yeah, it is closer. I'd still take Lodolo. But I think that's the right range. I was dropping Lodolo in some of my 12-team leagues as waivers were running yesterday.

So I think they're both in that fringe-rostrable territory in 12-team leagues, both Lodolo and Savale. Last one here for you. And I think they're kind of similar pitchers at this point. Corey Klobber. I'll roll the dice on Savale at this point. Sure. Yeah. I think maybe with that throwing that curveball more, we might have more short.

strikeout upside with Savali moving forward than we do with Corey Clover. All right, oh my goodness gracious for me, we've got Joey Bart, who last time I checked he was three for three in that late night game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. And since returning to the Giants, 28 games now for Joey Bart. He is betting 318 with five homers. Still striking out quite a bit, 31%, but that's much more manageable than where it was at earlier on in the season. He's not really hitting the ball all that hard, so I don't really know how to explain

this. Like, maybe he's just hitting the ball hard when he puts it in the air. And that's why he's hitting home runs the way that he is right now. But five homers over 28 games, that's like a 25 plus home run pace over 150, which obviously no catchers play. But yeah, I mean, it's a pretty good power pace for Joey Barty's 31% rostered. I don't think we're looking at him in one catcher league, Scott, but, you know, maybe he's floating out there in some two catcher 12 team leagues.

And I think if he is, you should probably readjo. Bart. Yeah, he deserves to be a 12, a two catcher catcher at this point. He does during that same stretch, you know, you noted the good side, the bad side is the 30% strikeout rate since returning from the miners, which is still very high. The standard that a second catcher has to meet in fantasy is very low. So I'll give Joey Bart a pass for that high strikeout rate and just enjoy the power production that he's providing at the moment. But I bring it up more for like a dynasty context, because of course the past couple years,

Joey Bart has been thought to be one of the best young, up-and-coming catcher assets. And I think he's still a long way from proving he's going to live up to that. Overall, kind of like neutral or maybe even a little bit down on Joey Bart from a dynasty perspective? or were you at there? Well, I mean, higher than a month ago. But I mean, the only place you could go is up, I guess, right?

Yeah, yeah. I would still say, you know, if we're talking purely dynasty catchers, Joey Bart, probably wouldn't be in the top. I don't even know how to put a number on it because like what kind of dynasty asset is a Salvador Perez in his 30s, you know? Yeah. It's hard to say.

But I could probably come up with, I have probably come up with a dozen catchers younger than 27 that I'd rather have than Joey Bart in the Dynasty League. I was just going to say, I wouldn't want him as anything more than a second catcher in Dynasty right now. If I play in a one catcher league, I probably don't want Joey Bart as my starter in a format like that. Or I just want someone better,

a better catcher asset in that format, if that makes sense. Just not being in the top 12 ranked, basically, for Joey Bart. but he is playing well, so I wanted to give him a little bit of a shout-out. Sure. Oh my goodness gracious offense from Monday. A nice little outbursts here from your Atlanta Braves, Scotty.

13 runs on 15 hits in a massive series, game one of this, I believe it's a four-game series, right, against the New York Mets here. And, yeah, I mean, up and down the lineup here. This lineup is so deep now. I mean, you've got Michael Harris hitting 90 Fawn Christ, I'm hitting 8th, and obviously everything that's going on in the top and the middle parts of this Braves lineup. But Ronald de Cunia, nice to see him back in the lineup.

obviously here, three for five, with three doubles, two runs, and three RBI. Danesby Swanson, three for four, with three RBI and his 15th steel. William Contreras hit his 16th home run. Travis Darno hit his 12th. He was back in the lineup as well. So obviously getting both catchers in there. Eddie Rosario hit his fourth home run, unfortunately left with a hamstring injury. And even Vaughn Grissom went two for three with a walk and two run scored.

And he was the most added player on CBS this weekend. and Scott, now up to 70% rostered for Vaughn Grissom, which I think makes sense based on how much we've talked him up. Yeah, well, I mean, not even how much we've talked about, just what he's done, he's scored at least one run in every game since being in the majors, which is, I think, a historic thing. I think this is now multiple hits in four of his first six games. There you go.

So that too, and of course, a couple homers. Yeah. on base, look at the minor league production, it certainly backs up what he's doing. And you mentioned William Contreras in there. That's one of those catchers under 27 that I would consider, you know, a higher asset than Joey Bart. Because, like, I feel like William Contreras has a very bright future.

And it's going to be, you know, he's already been useful this year. I mean, 16 home runs from a catcher, even if he's had to split time with Travis Darnow. But I think the ceiling is very high for him. I think it might be, it might even be higher than his brothers. And his brother, of course, has been considered a top five catcher in fantasy for something like half a decade now.

Let's move over to waiver wire pitchers. We mentioned Aaron Savali. I think he's probably the biggest standout of the day here on Monday. Rank these in shallower league, Scott. Alex Cobb had a strong start against the Diamondback, six innings, one run, five strikeouts in this one. Very quietly over his last nine starts. I hadn't even realized.

305 ERA, 52 strikeouts over 53 and a third innings pitched. 60% ground ball rate. 10% swinging strike rate is not amazing, but hey, you will take those ratios and nearly a strikeout per inning every single time from Alex Cobb. Marcus Schroeman, kind of a clunker here, some bad defense, you know, four unearned runs.

In the start, zero earned runs. He goes four and two thirds, only has four strikeouts. The ERA remains 3.96 on the season for Marcus Stroman. And then Josiah Gray, back-to-back quality starts. After a real rough stretch that he went through, it was like five or six starts, where he was just giving up a ton of home runs. He was up against the Cubs, six innings, three runs, 10 strikeouts there for Josiah Gray.

All three of these got right around 75-ish-percent rostered. How do you rank Cobb, Strowman? and gray. I would go, I mean, it's pretty close. I wouldn't quibble too much about the order if you wanted to argue with me. But I would go Josiah Gray first, then Alex Cobb, then Marcus Stroman. Yeah, I'm not even sure how I want to rank those last two. I mean, so that stat you gave for Cobb his last, what was it, nine starts?

Yep. Okay, so that's all since returning from his IEL. and yeah, I mean, that 306 ERA during that stretch is pretty much right in line with his, or close enough to in line with his season long ex-fip of 283 that we had been saying, remember early on Alex Cobb was struggling, he's like, oh, look at the underlying stats. He's, you know, better days are ahead for Alex Cobb. And it looks like quietly they've been happening. those better days.

And of course, the Giants offer a better supporting cast than the Cubs do for Marcus Stroman. I did just mention Marcus Stromen's ex-fip is really good, too. But, yeah, I think I'd rather have Cobb at this point. It's a close call. I think they probably all deserve to be rostered in 12th team leagues. They deserve to be rostered more than somebody like Aaron Savale. Josiah Gray, who I ranked first, is the most combustible of the three.

Even in this game, he allowed two home runs. He seems to do better at preventing the home runs in those starts where he throws his fastball less. This wasn't one of those starts. So he hasn't consistently, he hasn't come around to that idea, at least not consistently. And so I think he's going to continue to be pretty vulnerable because of that. But the strikeout potential is really useful. And often enough, he can work around the home runs well enough that it still makes for a positive outcome. Yeah, it was interesting that you put Josiah Gray first on this list because if I'm ranking them,

I think he's quite easily the third best pitcher on this list, at least for this season, because the home runs are just crazy with Josiah Gray. 31 homers now over 22 starts. And I agree. I mean, I think on any given day, he probably has the most upside, but he also has the most downside. Right. Yeah, I mean, he has a 479 ERA. Yeah.

So it's hard to argue with that. So it kind of depends what you're looking for, I guess. Yeah. If it's just kind of stability, I think I'd probably go with Cobb or Stroman, with Cobb being at the top of the list. In deeper leagues, James Caprillion has now allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 straight starts. And he was at the Rangers, five and a third, two runs allowed, five strikeouts. His, I was trying to figure out, like, what is James Caprillion doing this year where he's getting these results?

Maybe it's just pitching in Oakland. I will pull up the home road splits and see what they look like. But fastball velocity is up about a tick this year for Caprillion. His slider has been a really strong pitch for him. But this 10-star stretch got 2.83 ERA, well below a strikeout per inning, nearly four walks per nine, less than 10% swinging strike rate. It's just James Caprillion's kind of a weird pitcher to figure out.

And then Glenn Otto is kind of in the same conversation because he throws six innings of one-run ball. six walks to one strikeout against the Oakland A's. Just five swinging strikes in this one. Now three straight starts allowing two earn runs or fewer. That's fine,

but the overall numbers still look pretty bad for Glenn Otto. So what do you think of these two? James Caprillion and Glenn Otto. I don't think much. I mean, you could stream them with the right matchups. I think they're at least in that discussion. And I think I have had Caprillion as one of my 10 sleeper pitchers

going into a week before because he was facing the angels or whatever. But, you know, just from a pure, the perspective of analyzing how good they are, not very. I don't see a lot of reason to buy into what they're doing. And even in Caprillion's case, I mean, you mentioned 10 straight with 3 and runs or fewer, where only 3 of those 10 have been six innings or more. So really short starts without much help in strikeouts. and you're just counting on that big ERA to X-FIP disparity or whatever ERA estimator you want to use XERA, FIP,

they're all bad. Caprillion's X-FIP now is 513. It's hard to have an X-FIP that bad because that's a stat that kind of pulls everyone to the center. You know, you see less range in pitchers' X-FIPs than you do their actual ERAs. And so to have one over five, that's hard to do. And that would make me nervous about counting on Caprillion as more than a one-week streamer type.

The home road splits for James Caprillion, 4.70 ERA at home at Oakland Coliseum and 4.08 on the road. So I don't really know. I don't know how he's doing it, but he is doing it. He's doing something. So again, I agree. I think these guys are sure. streamers, but not overly excited about either one.

Some waiver wire hitters from Monday. I do have two middle infielders here, Scott. John Bertie, again, if you need steals, he goes out, does it again here. Two for four with his 29th steel of the season. He's 54% rostered, second, third, shortstop, and outfield eligibility. That is John Bertie. 54% on CBS probably covers all of our category leagues are close to it, so I don't know that he needs to be rostered in points leagues.

And then the other one is Bryce. and Stott, who went three for five with his sixth home run. He's let off the past couple of games with Kyle Schwerber banged up. And over Stott's last 28 games, he's hitting 314 with three homers, three steals, 11% strikeout rate. He's making a ton of contact. And he's hitting the ball pretty hard. 90.4 mile per hour, average exit velocity for a middle infielder, that's pretty

impressive. So he's 34% rostered, Scott. Anything you'd like to add on those two? Bertie and Stott. No, I mean, I think you pretty much covered it already. Stott, I don't know that I'm particularly motivated to pick up a hub, get him active in my lineup, anything like that. It is an encouraging trend for a guy we thought had upside coming into the year, a guy who was a consensus top 100 prospect entering the year, and just wasn't doing anything worthwhile for the first.

first, you know, three, three and a half months or so. And so to see him come around and start to make an impact is encouraging, I think, especially from like a dynasty standpoint. But I'm not ready to get Stott in my lineup. If I can help it, you know, unless it's just, unless I'm desperate and have a middle infield spot to fill and that's the best I can do off the waiver wire. Who would you rather add as a middle infielder, Bryson Stott or Luis Renheafelter? who it is eighth home run of the season here on Monday.

Yeah, so I don't really understand how Renhifo is being productive, but he's been even more productive than Stott. So I'd probably turn to him if I had to. By the way, the home run, if you haven't seen it, please go watch it. Like anywhere on Twitter, highlights, whatever it might be. Julio Rodriguez is camped under the fly ball here.

on the warning track right next to the wall and I don't even know what they call their stadium Angel's Stadium we'll go with and he's ready to catch it Mitch Hanager just comes, slams right into him and Julio Rodriguez the ball pops out of his glove and it hits off

the wall right above the yellow line there in Anaheim so it wasn't ruled the home run at first they had to do a replay but it's just like one of the weirdest unconventional home runs that you will see good for you run Heaf but it was very illegitimate.

And it is Angel Stadium. Oh, nice. Look at that. Of course I know my ballpark, Scott. You know, that's part of the job, obviously, right? Right. Right. I guess. The names change so often.

I used to know them like the back of my hand. Legitimately. Every ballpark now it's, you're right. They change so much. It's like even yesterday. Yeah. What is Miller Park? American Family Field, I think, now.

Okay. Yeah. That sounds right. The White Sox, for the longest time, they were, uh, was it U.S. cellular? Yeah, U.S. cellular. I don't think that they're that anymore. No, I, I, um, and there was Safeco, and I think that became T-Mobile Park. And yeah, I don't know, who can keep up?

Kerry Carpenter went three for four with a double and his first career home run. Not playing every day yet, Scott. Obviously, a big power potential here. we spoke about him last week, getting called up by the Tigers. Are you doing anything with Kerry Carpenter yet? Or you just kind of wait and see for now? Well, I mean, this was the first game where he did anything. Fair.

And he hasn't been starting every game. I assume he's been sitting against lefties primarily. That's when he's been out. I actually looked into this. Both games that he sat were against right-hand of pitchers. Yeah. So, look at that. Yeah.

So, yeah. I mean, glad to see that he is. capable of doing something at the major league level, but I need to see more of it, I think, before I act on it, except in the deepest of leagues. All right. That is Kerry Carpenter. Vinny Pass Quintino, we mentioned at the top. He did hit another home run.

He now has five homers in his last six games. The people are listening, Scott. The roster rate is climbing. He's now up to 74% rostered. So he's getting closer to that cutoff where, all right, you know, we probably don't need to talk about him as a waiver wire pickup anymore, but he's doing big things. Vinnie Pee, baby. He's doing it.

Just as you predicted on Monday, the pitcher's duel of the night was Johnny Quato and Jose Orkidi. What's going on, man? Johnny Quato at the Astros, at the Astros, he gives up two runs in the first inning. I'm thinking to myself, all right, this is the regression game. Everything is about to crumble here for Johnny Quato. And then he goes eight innings, six runs, six hits, rather, two runs allowed, one walk, three strikeouts. Just the most Johnny Quato line that you could have. He has gone six plus in 15 of 16 starts now.

His ERA is down to 2.78. He's 74% rostered. And then Jose Orquite bounces back in a big way. Seven and two thirds. One run allowed. Four strikeouts against the White Sox. And his ERA is now down to 3.69 for the season. It's been a good year for Jose Orkiti.

Cannot take anything away from him. Scott, Johnny Quato, I guess, could be in that same conversation as Stroman and Alex Cobb earlier. What do you think about that? Is he at the back of that group? Yeah, he's at the back. I don't see the skill level and the underlying stats there for Quo

like I do for those other guys. And I could cite the ex-fip again and how it's not very good for him. But he is Johnny Quato. He's had a very long, successful major league career and seems to, to be getting by on veteran guile, sort of like we've seen from Adam Wainwright the past couple years, you know? It just seems like he's figured out how to make his reduced stuff work still.

And while I maintain a healthy skepticism of his performance, I'm a little more open to the idea of just rostering him and starting him whenever it makes sense to start him and not worrying about it so much I think that's where I am with Quato it's not a high priority for me but

CRA is down to 278 for the year and 17 appearances 16 starts so yeah it's where we are the dude just has a rubber arm too he throws so many innings so if you play in a points league or any type of category

League that includes quality starts, I think Johnny Quato has to be rostered in all of those leagues. So shout out to him. He's getting it done. Now for the actual main pitcher's tool of the night, Luis Castillo at the Angels. He goes six innings, two runs, nine strikeouts, add 16 more swinging strikes. And over his last eight starts, he's got a 183 ERA, 65 strikeouts over 54 and two-thirds with a 13.6 percent swinging strike rate. And then Shohei Otani on the other side of that game. He goes six innings, two runs, eight strikeouts with 13 swinging strikes. He's throwing his slider more this year. It's become his main pitch, and it is a great one. 169 batting average against 43.7% whiff rate over his last 11 starts. This is Shohei Otani. 182 ERA, 100 strikeouts over

69 and 2 thirds with a near 17% swinging strike rate. It is just ridiculous, Scott. Castillo, Otani, what do you think? I think they're good. I have moved Castillo into my top 15 pitchers the rest of season. And this is probably the best version we've ever seen. And it doesn't seem to matter whether he's leaning on the sink or more, whether he's leaning on the four team or more lately.

It's been mostly sinkers. And yet the production has been just as good. Obviously, he's in a much better pitching environment now than where we've seen him for his major league career up to this point. He's such an extreme ground ball pitcher that I wouldn't expect it to matter that much, but it can't hurt. And he's obviously on a roll right now. So, you know, we kind of got to prior to last year,

where obviously Castillo got off to that miserable start and finished strong, but with the whip still kind of high, with the strikeout rate still a little low. But prior to that weird year, we kept thinking. Ranking Luis Castillo had another gear. You know, like we were drafting him as a borderline top 12, pitcher and fantasy, somebody who we thought had ace potential. And I know at least you and me, Frank,

we had cooled on that idea coming into this year. No more ranking Luis Castillo that high. He's, you know, top 25 at best. Well, it looks like he's living up to it now. Yeah. Right when we gave up on the idea. I just checked the season long WIPCOT. 1.05 would by far be the best in his career. I mean, unless you count his rookie season, he had 107, but he only made 15 starts at year. Every other season, it's been 1.14 or higher.

So he's really taken another step. And shout out to Cassio, he's getting it done. We haven't even talked about, I mean, really from a keeper or Dynasty League perspective, at least for the next season, he will be in Seattle. He's under team control for another year. So this is going to help his value quite a bit. I think pitching not only in that park, but in that division where there are lots of really good parks to pitch in.

So it's only good things for Luis Castillo moving forward. Before we hit the break, just want to remind everybody that if you haven't already, please join our Fantasy Baseball Today Facebook group. That's Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. or just go on Facebook and search Fantasy Baseball today and you'll find it that way as well. A lot of people asking questions there,

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And speaking of community, we are closing in on 15,000 YouTube subscribers. So if you're on the listening side, the audio side, then please subscribe to our YouTube channel. That's YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. We'll take a break and we'll be back right after this. The news and notes, Walker Bueller.

This one kind of came out of nowhere. He will undergo season-ending elbow surgery on August 23rd. So that is a week from Tuesday when you're listening to this. Though, maybe I missed an update, Scott. Have they announced if it's actually Tommy John surgery or not? Nope.

They have not announced that and there's a reason they haven't announced that because you're right. I mean, the Angels, it initially came from the team's official Twitter account. He's having season-ending elbow surgery, and it's like, okay, well, what kind of surgery? Because we in fantasy had already kind of accepted

that Bueller was probably done for the year. But if the elbow surgery is Tommy John's surgery, well, that probably puts them out for, if not all of next year, most of it as well. But the reason they haven't announced what kind of elbow surgery it is is because they don't know yet the surgeon's going to go in and figure out while he's in there

what needs to be done. And it may well end up being Tommy John surgery. We're just going to have to wait and find out. But that's a scary prospect if you have Walker Bueller and a dynasty league, as I do in one. Bryce Harper took 60 swings on Monday and he's scheduled to get in a similar session on Wednesday. Barring any setbacks, he could be ready for a rehab assignment shortly after that.

So maybe within the next couple of weeks, we'll get Bryce Harper back. Max Fried is expected to return from the seven-day concussion IL this week, though the Braves have not announced what day yet. Kyle Wright is expected to also start later in the week, either Thursday against the Mets or Friday against the Astros. He was skipped in the rotation because of arm fatigue this past weekend. George Springer was reinstated and what hit lead off for the Blue Jays on Monday. Wander Franco could return from the IL as early as this weekend. He's starting rehab. It sounds like on Tuesday.

Originally that was going to be the Florida Complex League, but sounds like they're just shipping them straight out to AAA. That is Wander Franco. John Carlos Stanton went through a full workout on Monday and could go on a rehab assignment within a few days. Carlos Carrasco, who's been pitching very well recently, was removed from Monday start against the Braves due to left side tightness.

And speaking of those Braves, we mentioned earlier, Ronald de Cunia was back in the lineup. He was dealing with some knee soreness and Travis Darno also returned. It was his first game since August 6th. Eduardo Rodriguez will make one more rehab start at AAA on Tuesday before likely rejoining the Tigers.

I saw he could start as soon as August 21st, which is this weekend. Eddie Rosario left Monday due to left hamstring tightness. Kyle Hendricks has been clear to resume throwing. He's been out since July 5th with a shoulder injury and was having a pretty dreadful season, so I'm not sure it matters much anyway. Luis Guillaume was placed on the IL with a left groin train,

and this is interesting, Scott. Apparently the Mets have discussed promoting Brett Beatty to the majors, though he was just recently promoted to AAA. So... Well, there's a need now with Renhifo being on the... You mean Guillermo? I'm running heifer. With Guillermo being on the IL, yeah, there's a need at third base

because Eduardo Escobar, actually his last at bat on Monday, he was hitting from the left side against a left-handed pitcher. Normally, he's a switch hitter, of course. But he's kind of playing through an injury right now, and they were speculating on the broadcast on maybe he can't hit from the right side. And the right side is better side anyway. That's why Guillermo had been getting more starts, been kind of a platoon between him and Escobar. So the Mets could really use the third basement who hits right-handers and Brett Beatty's a left-handed hitter.

So that would make sense. Would he succeed in the majors right away? I mean, that's anybody's guess. But consensus top 25 prospect, I would say. and had caught fire at AA before that promotion. So something to keep an eye on. Would he be a priority ad, Scott, Brett Beat Beatty, if he did get promoted? It depends how much you need a third basement.

It's a position of need. So I'm sure there's probably somebody in your league who would want to take that chance on him. Yeah. You know, obviously, if you get into like a, if you're talking something like a 15-team roto league, then sure, he'd be a priority ad. but in standard 12 teams are shallower. I would assess the needs of your team before making that move. We had a bunch of names out of action on Monday.

Luis Robert with a sprained left wrist. Kyle Swarber with that calf. DJ LaMayhew with inflammation in his toe. Cotel Marte with a hamstring injury. Jeremy Pena with neck stiffness. Jonathan India was originally in the lineup and then he was scratched with a lower leg injury. And Ramon Luriano was out.

with side soreness. Unfortunately, we had a manager fired on Monday as the Rangers let go of Chris Woodward, and normally I would say this doesn't really impact fantasy very much, but while Chris Woodward was with the Rangers, they were very aggressive on the base paths in terms of just steals the past three or four years, however long he's been there.

So I hope that remains. Hopefully it's more of a organizational philosophy than it was just a Chris Woodward thing, but yeah, obviously it helps for guys like, Marcus Simeon and Adoli-Scarcia, so hoping that remains. Tony Beasley was named the interim manager for the time being. Before we get into that group of hitters, I want to talk about, Scott. Are you ready?

Are you ready for the Better Call Saul finale, man? Obviously, no spoilers. If anyone's still catching up, it's a phenomenal show. If you haven't watched Breaking Bad, please watch Breaking Bad and then watch Better Call Saul because both are amazing. And Scott, we are up to the last episode, man. Well, it's weird because everybody, Well, maybe not everybody, but anybody who wanted to watch it already and is listening to us now has watched it already.

Probably, yeah. So we, you know, there's kind of some dramatic irony here or whatever. Sorry if I use that term wrong. But yeah, no, I'm excited. I'm excited to see it. I am sure by the next time we podcast, I will have seen it. Same. And I have thoroughly enjoyed my binge of it.

I have a weird way of watching. I think it's an ideal way of watching these more serialized dramas, which is I either wait till they're all the way done and then just watch them in a span of two months all the way through. Or if more optimally, I'll do what I did with Better Call Saul. And in anticipation of when it's ending, I will start binging it two months prior to that and then catch up to enjoy the finale with everybody else.

And so, you know, it's kind of different from, it's way different for Breaking Bad, actually, and that it's, you know, it's kind of a slow burn. It's more of a character, you know, what's the word? Development. Character study. It's more of a character study and kind of a slow burn, and there's not these constant bursts of crazy drama like you got with Breaking Bad, but like the drama that does happen feels so earned.

Like you've developed this affinity for the characters. And so, you know, the things that happened to them by and large aren't as dramatic as what was constantly happening in Breaking Bad. But like, it's just, you're just so invested at that point that, yeah,

it's been, it's been really impressive of what they've managed to do. Taking the most cartoonish character from Breaking Bad and turning him into like the most, like the most sympathetic character in the Breaking Bad universe probably. Yeah, no, it's been awesome.

And I've said this before, Vince Gilligan's ability to tell a story. Obviously with Breaking Bad was awesome, but even with Better Call Saul, it's been great. So really looking forward to watching the finale and hope everyone out there either enjoyed it or will enjoy it moving forward. What went wrong with

these hitters. I got four names picked out here and do you want to go one by one or just present them all to you and we could just kind of have a massive convoy on all of them? Whatever you think is best. All right. Well, yeah. Leave it up to you. I guess that's my job, right? I'm the host. All right. So wanted me to make it easier for you. I'm going to present all four and then we could just kind of, I guess, went through each one. Bobeshett. He had an ADP of five. By the time everything kind of ended at draft season before. the season. He was a mid-first round pick, and he's currently the 52nd overall player in Roto. Nick Castiano's. His ADP was 48 coming into the season. He is the 151st overall player,

and of course, I tweeted on Monday that, you know, he has seven steals, which is kind of interesting, and then everyone was just like, but he stinks. Yeah, who cares? So, so yeah, I mean, technically you're not wrong. The other one, Tyler O'Neill had an ADP of 60 coming into the year. He is 260th. He's kind of dealt with injuries on and off, but even when he's played, he really has not been very good. And then Jesse Winker,

ironically enough, did hit a home run here on Monday night, but his ADP was right around 107, and he is the 311th player overall in Roto at this point, Scott. So I got a few big names here, Bobichette, Nick Castiano, Tyler O'Neill, Jesse Winker.

What went wrong for some of the, Any, some of these guys, any of these guys? What do you thinking at this point? I mean, we only got like, whatever, month and a half left, but. Yeah. They were big picks. They were. They were.

So, Bo Bichette, this is something that happens a lot of times. I come out with my fantasy baseball ring. Well, I don't come out with them. I guess I keep them private. But I put them together in, like, October, on my own, you know, without any, without conferring with anybody else, I come up with what I think the rankings should be. And then, of course, in the weeks and months that follow, you start to, you mock draft with people in industry, you start to get a sense of where players should go.

And Bo Bichette was one of those players, my initial rankings versus where everybody else was taking him. I was initially much lower on him, like late round two, as opposed to mid-round one on Bo Bichette. And sometimes I stick to my guns when that happens. Sometimes I am, I feel compelled to go with the crowd. And I wish I'd stuck to my guns with Beau Bichette because I feel like what's happened to him this year was what I worried about happening to him this year.

The fact that for a first round caliber hitter, the on-based skills, the OPS, they were low. I mean, the home runs were there, but the OPS itself did not look like a first-round caliber OPS, and of course he had a lot of stolen bases, but that's not, his sprint speed isn't especially high and for middle of the order hitters like him,

unless they have like a long-standing track record of stealing bases year after year. You just can't count on that, you can't count on that being a permanent part of their profile. So Boba Chet has largely stopped running, and he's no longer getting, giving us his best case outcome as a hitter. And we see it's a steep drop here to mediocrity.

I'm sorry, a small drop to mediocrity considering that his on-base skills are so lacking. So that's what I think has happened to Bo Bichette. I do think there's bounce back potential next year. But I think what we saw from him in 2021 is closer to his best-case scenario than his like, you know, midpoint scenario. Nick Castellanos, I had him as a bust.

And my bust 1.0, Nick Castellanos was on it. That changed when he signed with the Phillies. I thought he would get the same or similar park boost there that he was getting in Cincinnati. Cincinnati is probably the best park for home runs. But, you know, Philadelphia is good too. And it just hasn't happened. I mean, I don't know how much the park changes to blame for it.

But I will say that Castiano, like Bo Bichette, has never been that good at getting on base absent batting average, you know. And so I think there may be something in common there when those players have down years, it hurts all the more because there's just fewer ways they can make up for it. They're just not getting on base enough. So that's part of it. You want me to keep going, or you want to chime in with something?

It seemed like you're about to say something with Bichette. I was going to mention with Bichet, it reminds me a lot of Francisco Lindor. Even when he was at his prime, he was a very low OPS. It was like mid-850s for someone you were drafting in the first round, which just comparatively to the other bats that you normally select in the first round those hitters are much better. So what has gone wrong with Bichette this year

is kind of a little bit of, I think what went wrong with Francisco Lindor when he started to fall off and obviously he's had a very big bounce back season this year. The one thing that stood out to be... Boucher, too, after I was kind of writing him off last month. Bo Bichet against lefties this year, Scott.

I don't know why this is happening, but last year he hit, 340 with a 950 OPS against lefties. This season, 197 with a 604 OPS against lefties. I haven't seen an explanation for it, but obviously that is a huge, huge disparity. And could explain, quite frankly, it could explain the difference in batting average between last year and this year for Bo Bouchet. And then with Cassiano's, I know Chris has pointed out that he thinks in this environment,

hitters who are more like gap to gap, they're losing out on power the most. It was like Nick Castellanos is someone he pointed out. Even Freddie Freeman, while Freddie Freeman is still very productive because of his batting average and he already has 10 steals. The power is down for Freeman. And I think there's something to that in this environment being more of like a gap to gap doubles power hitter

more so than just a pure slugger. Same thing kind of going on with Castellanos this year. And frankly, his quality of contact is just bad. like there are well that's 24th percentile average exit velocity that's for it's terrible casinos yeah i mean that's compared to uh what was it last year was 61st percentile in 2020 it was 82nd percentile steep drop there for him i mean he's never been like an elite exit velocity guy but this has been like i don't care where you're playing if you're if your quality of contact is that poor particularly with this new ball and particularly if

you're not somebody who pulls the ball a lot, then yeah, it's, it's not going to add up to much, uh, to much power production. That's for sure. So I don't know how much of that is like true regression. Like Castionis is only 30. He shouldn't be, his skills shouldn't be declining like this, but. Yeah, it's weird. I, you know, I, I think he's a pretty good bounce back candidate for next year, but obviously

you shouldn't have to pay that much for him. And I think it's kind of a good segue into these other two players, Tyler O'Neill and Jesse Winker because really with these and Cassiano's they've just kind of gotten worse this year. As I mentioned, just not hitting the ball nearly as hard as they have in the past. And with Jesse Winker, I mean, once he was traded to Seattle, I think, you know, even before then, we were kind of skeptical of him. But once that happened, it's a huge negative shift in terms of park factors going from Great American Ballpark to T-Mobile. And oddly enough, like, Winker has been really good against lefties this year and terrible against.

righties. I don't know why. I don't know if there's any reason for that or explanation, but just kind of a weird thing that I noted. So specifically with Castellano's O'Neill and Winker, Scott, I mean, they have just kind of regressed as players this year, which sometimes is going to happen and we just won't see it coming. Yeah, I mean, there would have been an easy case to make. So Winker I did have on my bus list. Same. And I kept him there, unlike Castianas. I actually had Tyler O'Neill as well. I just did not want to pay his price tag. Well, it would have been easy to make a bust case for Tyler O'Neill. I thought the price tag justified the risk.

You know, it wasn't, it was a bit, what was it like seventh round or something like that? 60th overall, so like a 5-6 turn, something like that. Yeah, that is a little steep. Maybe I should have had O'Neill's bus. But the main reason you would have had him as a bust is because he struck out 31.3% at the time last year. And it's hard to succeed when you're striking out that much. You need to make consistently elite quality of contact. And Tyler O'Neill managed to last year, 94th percentile average exit velocity,

but this year it's only been 59th percentile average XE velocity. And I have to say, I wasn't anticipating that. I thought, you know, the guy looks like Popeye with those biceps. He's just so strong. I thought he was going to continue to barrel everything up. And, you know, he hasn't been bad in that regard. It hasn't been like Nick Castiano's. But with that high strikeout rate, I think he's lost enough that it's hard for him to be productive.

Let's wrap up with the rest of Monday's action. And a few pitching leftovers, Sandy Alcanswer gets back on track with a scoreless outing against the Padres. He goes seven shutout with seven strikeouts in this one. Garrett Cole delivers back-to-back quality starts since getting rocked by the Mariners. He goes six innings of one-run ball, six strikeouts, and the run that he allowed was, it was a triple that actually

should have been a just fly ball out for Aaron Hicks, but he'd like turn three different ways, he lost the ball, and then that player wound up scoring on, I think it was like a single-the-neck bat, but not really Garrett-Col's fault. Spencer Strider rebounded with a solid outing against the Mets, five innings, one run, four strikeouts there. And Julio Arias has now allowed two earn runs or fewer in six straight starts.

And his velocity way up in the start, I thought that was interesting. His fastball velo up 1.3 miles per hour compared to seasons average, his curve up 2.1 miles per hour. His velocity was actually better in the start than it was last season. So if this is a sign of things to come for Arias, he's been pitching well regardless. But, you know, maybe he'll be even better. over the final couple of months. Anything on these four, Scott? Not really.

Not really. They just continued to do good things. I mean, Spencer Strider wasn't getting whiffs or strikeouts like we're used to seeing. But velocity, spin rate, they all seemed fine. So I don't think there's anything to take away from that. Okay. Three other names here that are, I don't know, just kind of interesting to evaluate right now. Joe Musgrove, a bit too hitable at the Marlins,

which you just wouldn't expect because it's the Marlins line. up, but he goes six innings, he gives up three runs on eight hits with five strikeouts, and over Musgrove's last six starts, he has a 5.56 ERA. The babbip is way up, the strand rate is down. It seems a little bit fluky right now because everything else, all the underlying numbers look pretty good for Joe Musgrove during this stretch. Joe Ryan bounces back with a solid start, five and a third, two runs, six strikeouts against the Royals, and then Freddie Peralta, not great against the Dodgers.

It's the Dodgers. Four innings, one run, four walks at three strikeouts. But I thought it was positive, Scott, to see Freddie Paralta got up to 92 pitches in this start. So anything on these three, Musgrove, Ryan, and Paralto. Yeah, Freddie Paralta needs to throw more strikes. And that was true even before he was sidelined by injury. He just doesn't seem quite as sharp as he did last year. But the stuff is still great.

And I'd still... bet on him moving forward. But I would like to see him throw more strikes, start to go deeper into games a little bit. Joe Ryan, I think, is gonna remain perplexing for a while. Agreed. It was a very difficult pitcher to evaluate in the minors because the numbers were ridiculous,

but he was another one of those known minor leaguers who wasn't an especially highly regarded prospect, just because it's such an odd way that he succeeds and was it just a gimmick, will it catch up to him at the major league level? It kind of reminds me of like Mike Fires, who was also dominant in the minor leagues and started out really well in the majors and then kind of became ordinary for the majority of his career. And maybe it'll play out similarly for Joe Ryan.

I'm not willing to, you know, declare a verdict yet. I think there's a chance Joe Ryan could be better than just kind of an average pitcher. But he seems to be trending more that way here in his first full season. I've noticed with him, Scott, third time through the lineup, Joe Ryan gets crushed too. And they've done a good job limiting him. He hasn't really thrown many quality starts as a result in the past really like month or two. So I think that's going to continue to be an issue for Joe Ryan moving forward. Some hitting leftovers, Andres Jimenez, massive day across the double header, four hits with a double dung, and one of those came off of a lefty.

He now has 14 home runs on the season, Andres Jimenez does. And as a left-handed batterer, he is performing quite well against lefties this year. 280 batting average, 794 OPS. Andres Jimenez entered Monday as the 55th overall player in Roto, and he has just been phenomenal. Better... It's one of the quietest breakout. seasons I feel like I've ever seen. Yeah. Yeah. Just great job by Andres Semenez.

Ian Hap, a double dog for him. He's now up to 12 home runs. Freddie Freeman went two for five with his 16th home run. Gavin Lux went one for three with his sixth homer. And this has been going on for quite some time now. 62 games since the start of June. Gavin Lux is hitting 320 with five homers, four steals, 31 runs and 23 RBI. And Chris has mentioned before, like the counting stats are not good for Lux.

he still kind of sits out every fourth or fifth day. But when he plays, he's been good. 11% walk rate during this time, 16% strikeout rate. You know, it's not overwhelming, Scott. It's like a 12-homer 10-steel pace, but he's performing well against lefties this year, and he's hitting for a really good batting average. So at least from a points league perspective, he's been a pretty good player. Yeah, it's been a positive year for his just development as a player.

I think it's I think it's not the kind of production that lends itself well to fantasy so you're right he's probably a better real life

profile than fantasy profile right that's what I'm saying yeah and so I don't know where that puts them for like next year uh probably still like a late rounder

in a 12 team league yeah but it's it's encouraging to see for a player who I mean coming into this year I was kind of concerned and Lux might never amount to anything. Yeah, no, I had similar concerns,

and he's definitely shut me up and he's performed well. So shout out to Gavin Lux. Christian Walker, I just want to mention. He went one for one. That one hit being his 28th home run. He added three walks in that game against the Giants and some positive regression in the batting average department, finally for Christian Walker.

He's got the batting average up to 220, which doesn't sound good, but I think about a month ago, that was 196. or something. So Christian Walker slowly climbing with the batting average. The call to the bullpen. And for the Guardians, game one of that double header,

Emmanuel Class A, picked up his 27th save. For the Phillies, David Robertson pitched in the eighth. Sir Anthony Dominguez pitched in a ninth, and he picked up his ninth save. They've had five saves since Robertson came over. Dominguez has three. Robertson has two. I will mention one of those Robertson saves came in extra endings.

So I think it's, kind of like a 60 or 70% in favor of Sir Anthony Dominguez. I might go stronger than that. So it's been three of four for Dominguez. You mentioned the one for Robertson came in the 10th, and that was with Dominguez working the ninth, as a closer would typically do in a tie game. And, you know, Robertson has,

I don't know if he's set up for Dominguez for all three of those saves, but at least a couple of them. So, yeah, I think Sir Anthony Dominguez is the preferred choice here. I'm not saying you should dump Robertson in leagues where saves are scarce, but I think it's mainly going to be Dominguez moving forward. For the Marlins, Tanner Scott gave up a hit and a walk, but picked up his 17th save and obviously ran into a little bit of trouble here. Dylan Floro started warming up very quickly here in the ninth inning.

In deeper leagues, Floreau was someone that, I was willing to speculate on this weekend. So just a name to watch in those deeper category leagues. For the Tigers in game two of the double header, Gregory Soto gave up a run, but picked up his 21st save for the Nationals. Scott, as soon as I dropped Kyle Finnegan for Carl Edwards, what happens? The exact opposite.

Carl Edwards pitches the eighth inning with the game tied. He faced the bottom of the Cubs lineup. And then the Nats took the lead, and Kyle Finnegan pitches the ninth and picks up his fifth save. I mean, maybe you're right all along that initially you were saying that it looked like they were using Finnegan more in high leverage spots than as a true closer. Now, for both of Carl Edwards saves, Finnegan didn't even work the eighth. They worked the seventh. So I thought it was pretty clear that they were shying away from him as somebody to close out games.

But apparently not. Apparently, it's still going to be kind of messy between those two. For the twins, Jorge Lopez gave up two hits. but picked up his 21st save. For the White Sox, Liam Hendricks allowed two base runners, converted his 26th save. And for the Rangers,

Jonathan Hernandez walked two, but picked up his fourth save of the season. To stream or not to stream, for Tuesday, Kyle Gibson at the Reds, Edward Cabrera versus the Padres, Mitch Keller versus the Red Sox, Nick Pavetta at the Pirates,

Justin Steele at the Nationals, Jeffrey Springs at the Yankees, Zach Police Sack versus the Tigers, Zach Rankie at the Twins, Jose Cantana versus the Rockies, J.P. Sears at the Rangers, and Jose Suarez versus the Maritors. All right. I'm going to go. Number one is Jose Cantana against the Rockies.

Number two, Justin Steele at the Nationals. Number three, Zach Plesack against the Tigers. And there are a couple others on here who are decent, but those would be the top three. I'm about ready to say just pitch anybody against the Yankees right now the way that their offense is going. So I think Jeffrey Springs probably should be fine. The Yankees shutout in back-to-back games

for the first time since September of 2016. Their offense is scuffling. On Wednesday, we have Nick Ladolo versus the Phillies, Drew Smiley at the Nationals, Daniel Lynch at the Twins, Austin both at the Blue Jays, Domingo Hermann versus the Rays, and Cole Regans versus the A's.

Nope. Okay. Look, you have plenty of options on Tuesday, So probably just stay away on Wednesday. Speaking of Tuesday, team name Tuesday, we don't have too many here, Scott, but these came from our Apple podcast reviews.

And this one is from somebody named team name Tuesday. So thank you. Salvador Higante, which is supposed to be from the Univision show, Sabadohigante. All right. Never watched that, unfortunately, but I'm sure it's great.

And this next one is hits from, to Young, which might actually be something inappropriate. So I'm just gonna move on. If it's what I'm thinking, anyway. This last one is from C. Vandy. Every Chris begins with K. Nah. Yeah, I've never actually been to K jewelers,

but whatever. I think they said it was something about Chris Bryant, whatever, he's hurt. It's not looking good for him. Anyway, we're gonna wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. fantasy baseball today, we'll be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye.