Fantasy Baseball Today - Aaron Nola Disaster, Dodgers Promote Dalton Rushing & Rankings Questions! (5/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 15, 2025

Aaron Nola has been a disaster (2:30)! ... Sonny Gray also got rocked (10:05). ... Ryan Weathers looked good in his debut (14:00). ... The Dodgers promoted Dalton Rushing but it sounds like he might n...ot play very much (17:55). ... News (24:45): Bryce Miller went on the IL with elbow soreness. ... Rhys Hoskins and Masyn Winn have been on fire (28:50). ... Weathers or Logan Henderson (39:28)? ... Let's have fun with rankings, including Eugenio Suarez, Kyle Stowers, Andy Pages and others (47:58). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:00:30). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Boo! Boo!
Starting point is 00:00:25 Arenola, Boo! Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, May 15th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris. and Chris Towers. Today on the show, the Dodgers have promoted Dalton rushing. I have some rankings questions. We had ourselves a slug fest between Aranola and Sunny Gray. Gosh, that was a rough one. And I guess we'll probably start there. Let's jump in. All right, let's just get it out of the way and start with the bad. Scott. You are up to talk about Aaron Nola. Okay, yeah, I guess I'll talk about Nola, they were both awful, Nola and Gray.
Starting point is 00:01:08 And what was kind of interesting about it is you look at, you look at the data from the game, their pitch selection, the velocities, the movement on the pitches. It's all basically what it's been all year for both of them, more or less. Sunny Gray was coming off his best start of the season, two-hit effort against the pirates over seven innings. Nola also had been trending up. His last start was mediocre, but the previous two were great, his best two of the season.
Starting point is 00:01:42 I would say between the two, the one you've assigned me to talk about here, Nola, is the more worrisome of them because his velocity has been lagging a little bit all season. It's been trending up. So at one point, during one of those great starts, he had, it was basically back to lack. year. It wasn't as good in this one. 91.8 is what he averaged on his fastball versus 92.5 last year. But, you know, up from the season average, continuing the trend of the velocity picking up for Aeronola. So I don't know, I don't know that I'm ready to attribute that to this. It doesn't help, but, you know, it's trending up. Like I said, I don't know. No, man. Aaron Nola has been frustrating for a few years now. I think it's still true, and obviously this goes for Sunny Gray as well, that if you try to start playing the game of, well, he was awful his last time out, so I better not start him next time.
Starting point is 00:02:53 then you're going to end up digging yourself into a deeper and deeper hole where you don't get the correction for those bad starts. I mean, either that or Aaron Nola is just terrible, and we shouldn't consider him a fantasy asset anymore. But I think we have, I think we've been through these frustrations with Nola enough that I wouldn't consider that the likeliest scenario. You drafted them to be what you're number two at worst.
Starting point is 00:03:23 and I think you've kind of made your bed and you just need to let it play out. We have seen this before. This is worse than it's ever been. And I don't just mean the 616 ERA or whatever he's up to now and the 151 whip, which are both by far the worst of his career. The underlying numbers are significantly worse
Starting point is 00:03:51 than they've ever been. walk rate is up a little bit that's not great it's always usually pretty usually very good now it's more like average 7.7% entering the start and then the striker rate usually around where it is 25%
Starting point is 00:04:07 the problem he's just getting crushed the thing with Aeronola that has made him so confusing over the years is even when he's been bad like in 2023 when he had a 446 ERA his expected Wobon contact was a little worse than average. And so, like, he had a 371 XERA in 2023 and a 446 ERA.
Starting point is 00:04:33 He had a 463 ERA in 2021 with a 335 XERA. This is very good. This year, his XERA entering this start was 440. His expected web on contact was 421. Now, I'm sure there were eight or nine start stretches from Aaron Nola before this where he had similar numbers. But it is just to say that in the past, you have been able to look at the peripherals and say, I know the results are bad, but Aaron Nola is still getting the process still looks pretty good. Right now the process looks terrible in addition to the. eggs of velocities.
Starting point is 00:05:19 Really just the eggs of velocities, right? Yeah. And the fact that his fastball velocity is lacking by a fraction of a mile per hour. And that's what, well, for the season, it's down a mile per hour. Yeah, it's been trending up though. Getting crud. That one specifically is getting. The fastball, yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:36 Destroyed. 447 expected Wobon contact or expected Wobo against the four seamer. It was 280 last year. It wasn't bad. And so I, I, I tend to think it's some combination of, yeah, declining skill set for sure. Yeah. He is, what, 33, 34?
Starting point is 00:05:56 No, he's only 31? He's been around for so long. He's been around for so long. He's ever. I do think it's a little bit of a declining skill set and then probably a little bit of the worst case scenario for variants right now. Well, we have seen, like, Aaron Null is not a heart. thrower.
Starting point is 00:06:18 No. He relies on precision. And we have seen stretches from him before. Probably every year in the last, what, four or five years, we've seen stretches of him before where he's not getting that pinpoint control. He's locating too much over the middle of the play. And that's when he gets crushed. And I remember the first year of the pitch clock, there was an explanation.
Starting point is 00:06:41 It had to do with the location of the pitch clock and he was having to turn his head. And that was causing him to leave pitches over the play. plate when he was delivering them. So it's been, there's been a lot of stuff like that. But he comes out of it. And so maybe he won't come out of it this year and we'll know better than to draft him next year.
Starting point is 00:07:01 But I think history suggests he'll come out of it. And again, you've, you've made your bet. This is the worst nine start FIP for Aaron Nola since at least 2021. I'm not sure. he did have a worse one back in 2019. But other than that, this is the worst process stretch
Starting point is 00:07:24 that we've seen for Maranola. What do we do with this? I don't know. I'm not trying to trade for him. Trying to figure out when to start him, Scott. You're right. It's kind of, you know, I don't know, a difficult task to do. And next week he's lined up for two starts.
Starting point is 00:07:38 One of them is in Corse Field. Now, the Rockies are very bad, but it's still Corse Field. And, you know, he's getting crushed. So I don't know. I don't know that I want to start him at Colorado and at the athletics in Sacramento. That's a tough spot to sit him there. Yeah. I don't think I'd sit him in a points league.
Starting point is 00:07:58 But in Roto, yeah, I mean, I just got through saying if you start picking and choosing when you start him, you're going to miss out on the correction. I think generally speaking, you're better off taking a pretty hands-off approach to a Roto lineup and not obsessing over the week to week so much. Yeah, I don't know. It'll be interesting when I have to line up the pitchers, the two-star pitchers tomorrow where he end up slotting Nola because I understand the concern. But it wouldn't surprise me if he had two seven-inning, two run outings. Yeah, sure. Wouldn't surprise me. I'm just not expecting it. Right. On the other side, we mentioned already a few times, but Sonny Gray also rough in this one. They each gave up three homers in this start. Sunny Gray, three and two-thirds, eight hits, seven runs allowed. Yeah, eight hard hits. 93 average exit velocity. Pitch mix looks fine, but, you know,
Starting point is 00:08:50 four seam and sweeper got crushed in this one. And he's another one with a fastball just getting crushed all season for Sunny Gray. I guess with him, you can look at the underlying numbers look a little bit better than Aranola so far. One thing that's set out to me, the ground ball rate is a career low 34.5% for Sunny Gray. And it's just, you know, if you're giving up more line drives
Starting point is 00:09:11 or fly balls, then, you know, unless they're weak fly balls, you know, more, there's more likelihood that damage is going to happen when those balls get put in play. Swinging strike rate is also down quite a bit this season compared to last year as well. But last year was kind of an outlier for Sunny Gray in terms of swinging strike rate. Well, that's the thing that stands out is last year strike out rate was 30.3%. The previous two years was right at 24%. This year, it's 25.
Starting point is 00:09:40 And the increased strikeout rate last year helped cover up for the fact that Aaron, that Sunny Gray had the worst quality of contact allowed of his career. And it's gotten even worse so far this season. I'm not saying that will last forever, but the fact that the strikeout rate is down and the quality of contact hasn't improved. Like, Sonny Gray is actually 35. I'm not imagining that. I'm looking at that right now.
Starting point is 00:10:07 He is 35 years old. And so, you know, he's throwing his four seamer less than ever, which is probably what he needs to do because it's getting crushed. I don't know how much less he can throw it, though. He's already down to a 19% usage for the season. That's usually something we see as pitchers age, is they throw their four seamers less, that you do reach a point where it's hard to throw it
Starting point is 00:10:33 less than you currently are. And that's what I wonder if Sunny Gray is kind of at a breaking point where is there another, are there any knobs left fiddle with. I'm not sure. I'm not saying there aren't. And, you know, maybe he throws the sinker more, which is generating okay results or the cutter. But right now, that four seamer looks like a real problem for Sunny Gray. I don't know how you fix that. And he is lined up to face the Tigers at home next week. The Tigers are currently seventh in Wobah against right-handed pitching. It's another tough one because Sunny Gray, I mean, you probably drafted him to be your SP3
Starting point is 00:11:15 ESP4, someone usually just set it and forget it. But yeah, I feel like just after Sunny Gray's last start, you guys were defending him as like a top 30 pitcher when I was like, I don't even have my top 40. I wouldn't really think twice about starting Sunny Gray. Like I said, that nothing really looked different in the pitch breakdown in this start from the previous starts. and the previous starts scored him a 350 ERA and a 108 whip. So, it's a bad start by a kind of mid-tier pitcher. But one that's still probably worth starting in most leagues. Yeah, I, what's the matchup next week?
Starting point is 00:12:01 Tigers. Home against the Tigers. That feels pretty fringy. Like the Tigers might not be a bad matchup or might not be a good matchup for pitchers. anymore, at least the way they're hitting right now, I don't entirely believe it, but they've made some streamers look pretty bad.
Starting point is 00:12:21 And I think Sunny Gray's better than a streamer, but there are definitely some red flags here. All right, Chris, let's go over to you for your player of the night. Let's talk about a pitcher who pitched well. Let's talk about someone who gives us some hope for the future. Ryan Weathers, who we were not starting in his first start back from the IAL against the Cubs,
Starting point is 00:12:42 but he looked great. The velocity jump that he had during the spring, 100% there, and the stuff looked tremendous as a result. He added a couple of inches of induced vertical break. He was sitting at 97.2 miles per hour, was hitting 98, even 99 with some regularity. And 10 whiffs on 76 pitches, that's pretty solid. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:13:09 Ryan Weathers might, I will say this. I am not confident that Ryan Weathers is going to be a must-start pitcher this season, but that is mostly because of injury concerns. I think Ryan Weathers, if he's healthy, should be pretty useful the rest of the way. Yeah, I think it was a great start for Weathers. I think this is the most exciting starting pitcher pickup we've had since Tony Gonsolin. More so than Henderson?
Starting point is 00:13:39 Logan Henderson? Yeah. Yeah, he also pitched today. We'll get into him. Yeah, I mean, the same range. I might give a slight edge to Weathers, but fair enough. They're in the same range.
Starting point is 00:13:53 So Weathers was getting a lot of hype this spring before he suffered the injury. And he was getting a lot of hype because his fastball was up two miles per hour. His induced vertical break was up three inches. Huge change. It was close to that. Coming off the forearm injury, 1.3 on the fastball,
Starting point is 00:14:13 2 inches more of vertical break, making it a better swing and miss pitch. I would say those who were hyping up whether this spring should feel especially encouraged by this return. All right, before we hit our first break, just a reminder that you can listen to both FBT and FBT Express on Spotify.
Starting point is 00:14:37 If you're watching on YouTube right now, scan that QR code, and that will take you right to the FBT Spotify feed. And big thanks to those watching us live. Make sure to hit the like button and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. Let's take a break, and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. Let's hit some news and notes, and the Dodgers have promoted their top catcher prospect, Dalton Rushing, who in the minors this season was hitting 308, 424, 514.
Starting point is 00:15:07 with five home runs in 31 games at AAA. And according to Sonja Chen, who covers the Dodgers for MLB.com, Dalton rushing will start on Thursday. Dave Roberts said and is expected to catch twice per week while also picking up pinch hit at bats. Robert said that the team also wants to see rushing focus on continuing to build relationships
Starting point is 00:15:30 with the Dodgers pitching staff. So while we're excited about the player, and if he was just an everyday game, catcher, he could have a huge fantasy impact. But because that doesn't seem to be the case, I think maybe we have to temper expectations. Or if he was going to play the versatile role that Dalton Varsho had coming up for the diamondbacks, that would be cause for, perhaps even more cause for enthusiasm. But this, I mean, that that news really took the wind out of, out of the sales for this
Starting point is 00:16:05 rushing promotion because starting twice a week with pinch hit at bats in between, there's just no way to be fantasy relevant. And if they're sincere, if the Dodgers are sincere about not wanting him to be pigeonholed as a utility player, not wanting to stunt his development as a catcher, strictly using him at that position, if they're sincere about that, there's not a scenario where it's like, well, if he hits well enough, he could earn more of bats because Will Smith is who he's looking to overtake. And I'm not even sure how this is supposed to play out long term. Like, why would the Dodgers want to do this with rushing except to, I'm not sure to proves his trade value,
Starting point is 00:16:50 but unless they plan to use him as trade bait, Will Smith is signed through 2033. 233. I mean, So I will point out that contract is a little bit fake. Like remember when he signed that contract? It was like what? A nine year, 10 year like 150 million dollar contract, I think is what it was. And it really seemed like it was like a six year,
Starting point is 00:17:17 $150 million contract that they needed to add several years on to make the AAV manageable. That was my because like I think he signed until like he's 40, which is crazy. for a catcher. And so I always thought that the 38, he signed until he's 38. I always thought the plan was like he's not, it's not really as long of a contract as it seems and he'll just be a bench guy by that point. But I think the larger point is only 30 now.
Starting point is 00:17:50 Yeah, I think the larger point in terms of the short term, like this is much more Moises by Asteroz than Augustine Ramirez in terms of my expectations for playing. Yeah, except it seems like there's even less possibility. Like the next day, we talked about by Esteros. Oh, no, if he hits well, how is there a way for him in the lineup unless Michael Bush moves to third base? And Michael Bush was taking ground just at third base the next day, which we don't know is related, but, you know.
Starting point is 00:18:22 But Donald rushing has played first base, Freddie Freeman. They're not going to do that with them. I maybe if they're sincere, maybe there. Yeah, like maybe that's true and they're just, he's just an Austin Barnes replacement. That feels like a waste. It feels like malpractice. And so I thought,
Starting point is 00:18:43 because at first was reported that Dave Roberts was saying this, and I thought maybe he's speaking in his own capacity. And the front office hasn't really laid out its vision for Dalton rushing yet. But then the front office, the GM, out and said the same thing. So I originally put rushing 18th in my catcher rankings because catcher is very deep. That's as high as I can get him.
Starting point is 00:19:10 That's its own issue. But I don't even think he can be that high. I don't think he can be as high as Biasteros if he's really just going to be starting twice a week. So how do you guys rank? I guess he'll be behind Biosteros for this. But rushing Biostero's, Drake Baldwin and Edgar Carrow, those kind of feel like the four young two-catcher league names right now. I might be on an island here.
Starting point is 00:19:33 I might put Kara first. I agree with you. I have him first of that list. He's got the clear edge in playing time on all of them, I think. He's got no power. That's fine. He's a really good batting ever source.
Starting point is 00:19:47 And I don't think it's no power. Like, Cape Irreys has a minimal power. And he's been a top 20 catcher for several years. So I don't think Edgar Carra. is significantly less talented than Kever Ruiz. I just don't see a scenario in this deep catcher pool where in a one catcher league, the sort of league we're actually going to be making this choice.
Starting point is 00:20:12 Caro is going to register. Oh, I don't think any of these guys are one catcher league. None of these guys matter. Yeah, I was talking about two catcher leagues. Yeah, because it was rushing by Astero's. Drake Baldwin and Drake Baldwin. Yeah. Maybe like the best case scenario,
Starting point is 00:20:26 Well, the best case scenario for all of them is the guy in front of the three other guys gets hurt. In By Astero's case, it might be two guys have to get hurt. But like Baldwin, he's not going to get to 60% of the playing time. So you're hoping for a 50-50 split. Yeah. He's never going to DH. He's not going to play the outfield. He might hit 10 times as many home runs as Caro hits, though, even with a 50-50 split.
Starting point is 00:20:54 Sure. That doesn't matter. I'm not saying it doesn't matter. And a much better lineup, too. But it's not like Carrow's a bad hitter. Like, I get that he doesn't have power. If he was batting second in a good lineup, it'd be a different story. But he's on the white socks.
Starting point is 00:21:11 And the playing time is safest for Carrow. So if you want to sell out for floor, okay. I just think. I really think you're. When there are so many catcher possibilities this year, give me the upside. I really think you're underrating the upside with Caro. All right. Can you guys just rank them because we got to move on?
Starting point is 00:21:32 It's Caro Baldwin, Biosteros rushing for me. Baldwin, Biasteros rushing Caro. All right, we've been all over this one. The Mariners placed Bryce Miller on the IL due to right elbow inflammation. He received a cortisone shot Tuesday, and the team is optimistic that he'll be able to return when first eligible on May 26. seventh, which seems very optimistic.
Starting point is 00:22:00 Well, yeah, that's the word they use, but I don't know that I believe that. Definitely explains why he's been so bad this season, and, you know, there have kind of been some signs that he was dealing with something this whole time. Ronald de Cunia will have his rehab assignment move to AAA on Thursday, so that was fast. You know, one game at Florida Complex League, you hit a home run, and boom, he's getting bumped up right away already. That is kind of because I thought I had. seen something a couple days ago that was like he's going to stay in Florida for a little while
Starting point is 00:22:31 and then like once he gets promoted it's going to be like okay now it's all systems go and I guess they needed to see one game from him I don't know well a home run changes everything Chris I guess Dave Roberts said that to Oscar Hernandez and
Starting point is 00:22:47 Tommy Edmund won't return until next week at the earliest Blake Snell resumed throwing off flat ground from 60 feet on Wednesday which is a positive for him after you know some negative updates recently. Bruce Bochie said it's possible Corey Seeger will require longer than a minimum stay on the 10-day IL. Jordan Westberg suffered a setback with his hamstring and has paused his running progression. O'Neill Cruz has missed four straight due to backsorness.
Starting point is 00:23:13 T.J. Friedel was out of the lineup Wednesday with a right-rist bone bruise. He is day-to-day. The Brewers, Jose Cantana, was placed on the IL with a left. left shoulder impingement. Tobias Myers was recalled and will start in his place on Saturday. Parker Meadows is close to a rehab assignment. He's missed the start of the season with a nerve issue in his right arm. That's one to keep an eye on. Do you guys have any interest in stashing Parker Meadows? Yeah, I think if you have an aisle spot to play with, he was someone who should have been a top 200 pick in any Roto league coming into the season. Remember when he came
Starting point is 00:23:52 back from he was demoted and then got hurt last year from remembering the timeline correctly when he came back from the hamstring injury one he was awesome at triple a when he got demoted and he was really really good after returning to the major so i think there's 15 homer 25 steel upside there for a full season pace maybe more yeah uh i think i had him as the top 50 outfielder originally five outfielder leagues yeah Parker Meadows, you'll probably have used for them, for him. But have you guys noticed when you're updating your rankings that the 30 to 50 range in the outfield, there's just like there, you want to move everybody up to 30, but you can't.
Starting point is 00:24:38 Some have to be 50. It's just a really crowded stretch of the rankings. Like outfield sort of like catcher has been maybe not to the extent of catcher, but shockingly deep this year. Yeah. No, I think that's fair. Yeah Like somehow Lars Newbar
Starting point is 00:24:54 Got pushed outside of my top 50 And I like Lars Newpar So I guess I'm just I was just moving a bunch of people up Yeah I keep thinking I got to move Willier or Bray you up Yeah
Starting point is 00:25:02 I got to And then the highest I can get him Is 42 Yeah I feel the same about Like Chandler Simpson Yeah Yeah like Buckston I moved up a bunch today Uh Junghu Lee
Starting point is 00:25:12 continues to hit right So Yeah I mean these are Those are some of the names In that range Elliot Ramos has been You know mashing as well So I moved him up
Starting point is 00:25:20 So, yeah, someone's got to move down as a result. The MRI on Chris Martin's right elbow came back negative. The Red Sox placed Tanner Halk on the aisle with a right flexor pronator strain retroactive to Tuesday. Cooper Criswell will take Hauk's spot in the rotation. Ben Joyce underwent surgery to repair his right shoulder and is expected to miss the rest of the season. And Eddie Rosario signed a minorly deal
Starting point is 00:25:46 with the Milwaukee Brewers. Let's get into the waiver wire names here from Wednesday's action. Reese Hoskins had a huge game, 4 for 4 with his fifth home run. He had 5 RBI, and in 26 games since mid-April, 349 batting average, 5 home runs, 20 RBI, and an OPS near 1,000 for Reese Hoskins. He is 58% rostered. The other name here, Jake Cronoward, 2 for 3 with a walk, a double, and his first stolen base. Small sample, he's only played 18 games.
Starting point is 00:26:16 He was on the IL for over a month. but when he's played, he's looked really good. Scott, who do you like more, Reese Hoskins or Jake Kronerworth? Definitely Hoskins. We know he has the upside to hit twice as many homers as Kronenworth can. And I don't see anything in the profile for Kronoerworth. That really makes me think he's like some kind of different player this year.
Starting point is 00:26:41 Reese Hoskins obviously was terrible last year coming back from the knee injury and lost playing time because of it. early this year he was losing playing time too and it was like oh geez did did i did i did i stick my neck out too far for hoskins but he's he's he's now he hasn't sat a game in three weeks he hasn't sat out of game in three weeks so um then then he's hitting well and and you don't even need to do the like since x days with reese hoskins now he's just good yeah he just has like an eight 58 ops right now so there's another position first base can't rank
Starting point is 00:27:19 Reese Hoskins high enough. Like I think he's outside my top 20 and for good reason. But I'd be fine starting him as my corner infield in a roto league, absolutely. All right. Let's talk about Mason win. Like we have a lot recently. He went 5 for 8 with his
Starting point is 00:27:35 fifth home run across the double header. 20 games since coming off the IL. He's hitting 319, 4 homers, 15 runs, two steals. One thing I've noticed, three caught stealing to two steals on the season. So would like him to be more efficient there, obviously. But he's only 58% rostered still.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Would you rather have Mason Win or Javier Baez, who is right around that same roster rate, and he's been the talk of the town? A win, for sure. There's another position, shortstop. I don't have win outside of my top, I think top 25, which, just based on this game,
Starting point is 00:28:14 he probably needs to be a little higher than that. but man I'd rather have win than Baez because I have a lot of doubts about Baez just like the poor exit velocity readings and everything else but
Starting point is 00:28:30 it's been hard to get win as high as he deserves to be with as good as he's looks since coming back from the aisle so Mason win was hitless with nine strikeouts in the first five games of the season I believe it was nine strikeouts since then This is not including today.
Starting point is 00:28:48 So before he had another, what, multi-hit game with a home run today? It was a double-header. A double-h header before he went five for eight with a home run. He was already hitting 307 with a 386 on-base percentage and a 5-11 slugging percentage since the sixth game of the season. Mason win has just been awesome for most of the season. He's been hitting second for the last two weeks now. we might have gotten fooled by a bad spring in a bad week to open the season with Mason win.
Starting point is 00:29:23 He looks like he might be having the breakout we were hoping for. Yeah, like I said, we just need more steals. So just need him to be more efficient on the base paths. And I love the fact that they moved them up in the lineup already. I mean, he's consistently batting second now. So, you know, you've got Newpar, Mason Win, and then it's usually a combination of, you know, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Aronado, Wilson Contreras.
Starting point is 00:29:42 So do like that spot in the lineup for a decent win. I could probably get him up to 20th. I put some past Jeremy Pena. Yeah, it's tough. Pena's been really good though. Pena's been good. Yeah, I have him on the run down later on. We'll do like a fun with rankings segment.
Starting point is 00:29:59 He's been four-hit game here. And since he's been moved to leadoff, he's batting like over 400. He's been. Yeah, he's been good. Awesome. And then I don't really know what to do with somebody like Jackson Holiday. I've already kind of,
Starting point is 00:30:10 I've already kind of yanked Xander Bogart's way down the rankings, not that I think. he's terrible, just that there are too many other good options. I mean, I think Anthony Volpey's kind of similar. Like, do we, are we ready to just bury him? He's done some interesting things this year. Yeah, a little bit of power, a little bit of speed. The batting average remains bad, though.
Starting point is 00:30:30 Yeah. I mean, gosh, he's polarizing because I think, I do think there are some skills there, but it's just we don't really see it, you know, that often from Anthony Volpe. Let's talk about Trevor Larnick, who has turned things up recently, 23 games since April 18th. He is hitting 295 with seven home runs, 19 RBI, and OPS over 900, hitting the ball very hard, barreling it up during that time. He's playing every day, 30% rostered. And Scott, if we look at, you know, recent names in five outfielder leagues, how would you rank Larnik, Dalton Varsho, Max Kepler? Oh, man. Kepler, I think, goes at the bottom.
Starting point is 00:31:11 Varsho, did you guys talk yesterday about how hard Varsho hit those two home runs? We talked about him, but not how hard he hit the home runs now. So let me open up the right document here because I'm in my spring training document so I could talk about Ryan Weathers. So both of those home runs for Varsho on Tuesday were both hit 113. Something miles per hour. They were the two hardest hit balls of his career. in the same game.
Starting point is 00:31:43 Yeah, he's hitting the ball really. I mean, 96 mile per hour average exit velocity overall. He's crushing it right now. And I remember, I think I remember observing something similar in spring. Maybe I need to pull open that spring document. But yeah, I wonder if something's going on there with Varshow, obviously a small sample, but when you're talking about the two hardest hit balls of his career, that becomes a very large sample.
Starting point is 00:32:09 It's tough between him and Larnik. I'm going to go Larnock number one, because here's the thing about Larnock. I've always liked Trevor Larnick. I've liked him. Back when I could first rank him as a prospect, I ranked him ahead of Jared Kelnick, which sounds kind of funny now, given the way Kelnick's career turned out. But the point was Kelnik became an elite prospect and Larnik didn't. As recently as last year, remember, at the All-Star break,
Starting point is 00:32:33 I was hyping up Larnik as a second half sleeper. It may be happening now because he's playing. every day. He's not sitting against lefties anymore, which is the biggest advantage she has over Far Show. I presume you gave the surface level numbers, Frank, last 24 games, 295 with seven home runs. And during that time, average eggs have velocity 92.2 miles per hour, which is part of the reason I've always liked Larnock. He tends to hit the ball really hard. But when you add the everyday of bats, I think this is, we were just talking about how deep outfield is. people who play in just three outfielder leagues, I'm sure, don't need another name to consider. But if you plan something deeper than that, Larnick is really flying under the radar right now.
Starting point is 00:33:20 He may, all those years later, I may end up being right about Larnock over Kelnick. And last name here on the list, a deep league middle infielder, Hessung Kim from the Dodgers, two for two with his first career home run. And in a small sample, since he's been called up, he's hitting 360. He's got that one homer, two steals, 840 OPS. he's 28% rostered. Some other deep league middle infielers that have popped up recently.
Starting point is 00:33:45 Brett Beatty's been hitting for some power. Brooks Lee's been doing some things lately as well. Chris, how would you rank those three? Hessung Kim, Brett Beatty, and Brooks Lee. It's probably Lee, Kim, Beatty, but I don't take that as an endorsement of Kim. I'm not terribly impressed with what he's doing. He's striking out more than he probably
Starting point is 00:34:09 should for his skill set, not showing a ton of power. I know he had a home run today. It was 104 miles per hour. His average hex velocities are nothing special. I don't see a ton to be excited about with Husson Kim. With Hesong Kim. And I'm interested to see what the Dodgers do when everyone gets back healthy, right? To Oscar Hernandez and Tommy Edmund, does Heson Kim just go away?
Starting point is 00:34:35 I don't, I don't know. I would think so. I would think it's him and outman. Who are the odd men? Outman, yep. Yep. But yeah, I'm not sure. All right, let's take our final break.
Starting point is 00:34:49 Winnery return. Waiverwire pitchers, some fun with rankings, and we'll do all of that right after this quick commercial break. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. WaiverWire pitchers. We spoke about Ryan Weathers. We kind of mentioned Logan Henderson, who picked up the win.
Starting point is 00:35:04 He's now two for two, two starts. Two wins with the Brewers. He was at the Garminers. 30s, five innings, two runs, seven strikeouts, had 10 whiffs on 72 pitches, and he threw the fastball and changed up 40% each in this one. I like Logan Henderson, and the minor league numbers are awesome. I do just kind of wonder, does he have a third pitch that he can go to if slash when he needs to go to that pitch in the future? Because obviously it's going to happen at some point where he's going to need a third pitch. What do you think about that? Yeah, maybe. And who do
Starting point is 00:35:36 guys like more Logan Henderson or Ryan Weathers? I don't think it's necessarily true that he needs a third pitch if his two are good enough. If it's like a bad third pitch, then it's probably not worth it. He was throwing a cutter more at AAA than we've seen so far in the majors. So he was working on that and maybe he'll need to pull, he'll be able to pull it out if he needs it. But I also noticed his control had not been as good in that AAA this year as it was.
Starting point is 00:36:06 last year when it was basically elite. So I don't know how much that's related to the cutter. I don't know. I know his control's been fine in two major league starts. And obviously the fastball and change of both have been missing plenty of bats. And I hope he's here to stay because I think Logan Henderson is good. I imagine he is here to stay because we've already seen Tobias Myers was on the outs. They had to call him back up because then Jose Cantano went on the IL.
Starting point is 00:36:32 I'm not sure when Brandon Woodruff is coming back now that he has an ankle tendonitis. So I think Savali is close though too Quinn Priester's not looking good Savali is close too But I would hope at this point Myers would be ejected And maybe priest or two
Starting point is 00:36:51 Before they took Henderson out And meanwhile Jacob Mizorowski Looks like he is Achieved his final form At AAA throwing a lot more strikes lately And peaking at 102 too. Would you guys take Ryan Weathers and Logan Henderson? I'll just run down some of the most added. Would you take those two ahead of Kate Horton right now? Definitely. I think so, yeah. Would you take them ahead of A.J. Smith Shaver? Yeah. I would say so.
Starting point is 00:37:25 Yeah, I think so too. What about Clayton Kershaw? Yes. Yeah. And last name, Tomoyuki Sugano. Definitely. All right, a couple other names here. Eric Fetty, I don't know how he keeps getting away with this. At the Phillies, 5 and 2 3rd, shutout innings. More walks than strikeouts. He has done that four different times this season. More walks than strikeouts in a start.
Starting point is 00:37:47 And yet he has a 344 ERA on the season. Will Warren has turned in two strong starts in a row. He was at the Mariners. Five innings, two runs, nine strikeouts, a career high with 10 whiffs on 92 pitches. It looks like both of those guys might line up for two starts next week. so kind of give you maybe a sneak peek for tomorrow's episode Scott but any interest in Fetty or Will Warren? Very limited interest in Fetty.
Starting point is 00:38:12 That's one that like if you have him on your roster, okay, keep riding it, I guess. But I think that's going to end poorly before long. Will Warren, he's definitely behind Weathers and Henderson. But I think Will Warren's pretty interesting right now. He has 24 strikeouts to five walks over his past three starts. He's made some changes to his arsenal in that time. Defend,
Starting point is 00:38:38 de-emphasizing his sinker for more four-seemers, which is getting good whiffs and good results overall while his sinker's getting crushed. I think Will Warren's okay. It's probably at best. He's maybe a top 100 pitcher starter. So I'm not like beating. down the door for him the way I would be for Wethers or Henderson if they were available.
Starting point is 00:39:04 But I think Warren's showing some signs. He'll probably stick around whenever Strowman's healthy. One other thing on Warren, I wanted to point out, he threw more curveballs in this start too. And that was a pitch they spoke about in spring training that he kind of dug up from his past, that he used to throw a curveball and then kind of went away from it. And he brought it back. And in a very small sample size this season, it has been awesome. 55% whiff rate on that curveball. So I don't think that pitch is actually that good, but interested to see if he throws it a little bit more,
Starting point is 00:39:35 what can happen there. And with Eric Fetty, I just had to dig it up. He can't keep getting away with it. He can't keep getting away with it. I always forget there's that second one. I don't know, man. There's a lot of guys who can't keep getting away with it right now. Just to address with Fetty specific.
Starting point is 00:39:59 he's only been getting away with it for two starts. Prior to the last two, this is kind of how much a small sample of two starts can impact the player's numbers. Prior to the last two starts, Eric Fetty had a 478 ERA and a 146 whip, and nobody cared about him. I think we should continue not to care about him.
Starting point is 00:40:18 Jameson, for the most part, yeah. James and Tyone turned in a quality start against the Marlins, but he allowed three home runs. He's allowed seven home runs in his last two games. Do you guys, would you guys, if you had Tyone, would you hold him for his next start at Miami or drop him for any of these more interesting options? Oh, I would rather have Weathers or Henderson for sure.
Starting point is 00:40:37 But if it's Will Warren, I'm probably just starting Tyone next week and see what happens after that. Maybe someone else comes up or I'd rather, I don't think I would drop Tyone for like Clayton Kirshall even, just because that just kind of feels like the likeliest outcome is neither is much better than whatever their next matchup is. When in doubt, and I agree with your answer completely,
Starting point is 00:41:03 but when in doubt, if you're deciding between the guy who can help you next week or the guy who could maybe be somebody who you value all season long, you go with the latter in mid-May. If it's mid-August, maybe it's a different story. But we've got three quarters of the season to go here. Got to think long term. Agreed. Some names in deeper leagues here.
Starting point is 00:41:27 Bryce Elder, Randy Vasquez, Davis and Martin, they all pitched well here on Wednesday. And Scott, I do wonder if when Strider's ready to return, is there a chance that Elders sticks in the rotation over Grant Holmes? Because in his last five starts, he's got a 310 ERA and 110 whip. I don't think Elder is that good, but maybe the Braves do. I don't know. I think I saw their planning to go six-man when Strider returns.
Starting point is 00:41:52 So I don't remember how final that report was, but that is my expectation. I was actually thinking about this the other day. Remember Bryce Elder in 2023 had a 192 ERA through his first 11 starts through the end of May? Whenever I put him on the rundown, I think about that. It's crazy. He had a $495 ERA the rest of the way.
Starting point is 00:42:18 I don't think Bryce Elder is very good. I do want to mention Spencer Strider made a Sim start today, I think, against some guys from Gwinnett. There's some concerning reports out of it. I'm not panicking yet, but he was like sitting 93-94 and I think the Mark Bowman tweets that I saw
Starting point is 00:42:45 were like he touched 95 a few times. That's not great. Obviously, look, it's not a competitive environment. It's a same game, and I think he probably wasn't throwing it 100%. But it would be a problem if he was. I don't think Spencer Strider is caps lock Spencer Strider right now, I will say. Yeah. And we talked about that a lot early on in the season when he first returned to, like,
Starting point is 00:43:13 maybe he's not Spencer Shrider with top three SP upside Spencer Strider. But I mean, even if he's, he's, I don't know, 75, 80% of that guy, that still might be a top 20 starting pitch or rest of the season. All right, let's get into this fun with rankings here. I've got some questions, some things that came up just while I was updating the rankings
Starting point is 00:43:33 and maybe you guys have thought about the same things, but A. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E.E. Horens is picking things back up with his 13th home run. Last seven games. He's hitting 280. He's got three homers, eight RBI. He's up to 13 home runs overall. And it kind of feel like Swares should just be ranked higher than someone like Mark Vientos at this point. I noticed that I think we all
Starting point is 00:43:54 had Viantos higher and then I changed that. What do you guys think? Man, he's had a weird season so far, Suarez. He had a great first... I think they both have had weird seasons. Yeah, Viantos in a more conventional way has had a weird. Like, Viantos has just been kind of consistently mediocre,
Starting point is 00:44:13 but with some weird stuff going on. Suarez's the first, what, series? He looked like the best player. in baseball and then he did nothing, randomly had a four-homer game, and then went back to doing nothing. And then he's finally had a couple more good games here recently. So I think with the way Brett Bates picked up, maybe Vientos doesn't have total job security either. But in a general sense, I think Viantos has better job security than Suarez, especially now that Jordan Lawler's up. And we know Jordan Lawler's going to take some playing time from Suarez.
Starting point is 00:44:50 So unless you're just totally out on Vientas, you don't have any confidence in him bouncing back. I would still rather have Viantos. And I say that as somebody who had Viantos as a bus coming into the year. I think it's basically a coin flip. Suarez is just hitting the crap out of the ball, right? Like both of these guys you're expecting big power from, right? One of them is actually hitting the ball really, really hard, and the other one isn't.
Starting point is 00:45:13 And Suarez is the one that's actually hitting it hard. And he's underperformed his expected stats a lot. So I do think better days are coming for him. Yeah, Viantos is actually overperforming his expected stats. And given how mediocre he's been, come on, guys, Suarez. That's a little concerning. I'm not, look, it wouldn't take much, right? I do the overall rankings and they're back to back.
Starting point is 00:45:35 So if you want to put Suarez ahead of Viantos, I won't argue. I think that's fine. I don't know why these guys are tied together, but it feels like they both kind of broke out. at a similar time and we were trying to figure out who to pick up between the two. And now I just always bring them up together. Kyle Stowers and Andy Paquez. Stowers,
Starting point is 00:45:54 three for four with a double dong. Last 13 games, he's got eight home runs and OPS over 1100. And Andy Paez hit his seventh homer. He's hitting 291. Seven home runs, five steals, 834 OPS. Both of these guys, they look like young emerging outfielders here. Who do you guys like more, rest of season? So I am with you that I haven't been able to separate them in my rankings. They're both lower than I'd like for them to be because Outfield is so deep, as we just discussed.
Starting point is 00:46:24 The data looks better for Stowers. Obviously, the supporting cast is much better for Paez. Pahas has also been running a bit, hasn't he? I think I saw that the other day when I was updating my reference. He's got five steals, yeah. Yeah, that's pretty good. So I think that might be the ultimate tiebreaker here as good as, I mean, I guess they both had a really good game Wednesday, right? But Stowers had the multiple home runs.
Starting point is 00:46:53 Man, Pah has, it looks like a total fluke. Even today, he had three hits. So it's like, oh, good game. One of those was hit 69 miles an hour, not nice. The other one was hit 80 miles an hour, also not that nice. And then he had a 109 mile an hour home run. That's great. his expected stats are bad.
Starting point is 00:47:16 Yeah. Like even in May where he's been hot, I guess, he has a 275 expected Woba. There are some real warning signs here for Antipause. I know that he's just been good for a while now. And so maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe there's something about him that he can continue to outrun that stuff. But we're not talking about a guy who was,
Starting point is 00:47:39 he wasn't even really like a Kyle Stowers level. prospect was he he was a decent prospect pretty similarly yeah and and most fringe top 100 guys yeah has mostly earned high marks for power yeah because stowers his quality contact has been incredible all season like some of the best in the league and he's just striking out a ton and he's on a bad lineup but pa has is probably dropping to eighth in the lineup in the next couple of weeks right he's been hitting like fifth or six but when Edmund and Teoska are back he's probably seventh or eight that best.
Starting point is 00:48:15 Yeah. Stowers is going to hit third or fourth all season as long as he's good. Quick. Stowers average eggs of velocity is 61stile and max is 67th. So I want to say it's best in the league. It's better than pot.
Starting point is 00:48:29 It's not just the average X velocity though. His barrel rate is 21%. His expected Wobon contact is 528. He's not hitting Yeah, but he's not going to sustain a barrel rate like that. I think the eggs of velocities are more telling. Yeah, I mean, it was 11% last year. That's still very solid.
Starting point is 00:48:48 It's a lot less than 21. It's roughly half, yeah, but that's still pretty good. The expected stats are great for first hours, too. Oh, you got a 21% barrel rate that's bound to happen. Ah, chicken or the eggs, Scott. But I will just say, no. Like, if they are performing. Nobody ever listens to me on barrel rate.
Starting point is 00:49:07 If they are performing similarly and Stowers has just been better this season. But even if they were performing and they are similar talents, I'll just take the guy with the much better underlying stats. And that's Stowers by far. Speaking of these two guys, would you take either of them over Adolice Garcia? And even that we haven't talked much about, hit a sixth home run here.
Starting point is 00:49:29 He's someone who's also underperforming his expected numbers by quite a bit. He's hitting the ball hard. His bower rate is great. he's also just putting the ball in the air a ton. So that's contributed to the lower batting average. Have you guys lowered Adola Scarsia? Do you like either of these other potential breakouts over him, rest of season?
Starting point is 00:49:49 I actually think there's a lot to like about Adelis Garcia right now besides the production, which I know has been bad. And is almost exactly what it was last year, so I understand if people are skeptical of that. But the strikeout rate much better than last season and the quality of contact is better. That's a really good pairing. Now, like you said, he is hitting the ball in the air a lot.
Starting point is 00:50:10 9.6% infield fly ball rate. That's too high. 43.5% fly ball rate, probably too high as well. But he's pulling the ball well in the air, especially. I think Adoli Scarcia actually looks fine. Yeah, I haven't moved him down. Some hitters have leapfrogged him. But I haven't moved him down because I think.
Starting point is 00:50:35 there's enough reason to hold on there with Adolese Garcia. I do have, I'm trying to see how many spots I have him ahead of the duo we just talked about. I'm surprised at him as low as 54th. Yeah, he's right in the same vicinity as Pahl has in Stowers. Man, is that right? I don't know. I hate that range of the outfield rankings. It always looks wrong to me.
Starting point is 00:51:02 All right, let's talk about Jeremy Payne. We mentioned him earlier. he had four hits today, and in 16 games since being moved to the leadoff spot, he's hitting 406 with three home runs, 15 RBI, and an OPS near 1,000. Chris, we spoke about Jacob Wilson yesterday who had a big game himself. Who do you guys like more rest of the season? Jeremy Pena or Jacob Wilson? I think it's Pena.
Starting point is 00:51:25 I think that's who I have ranked higher. And I think I talked yesterday about how it would be hard to move Wilson ahead of Pena. And part of that is just as good as Wilson has been, he really only projects to be an outlier, like a standout, a true plus contributor in batting average. I think everything else, maybe RBA maybe runs because he hits leadoff in a pretty good lineup. But he's not going to steal any bases.
Starting point is 00:51:54 The five homers, like I said, if he hit 10 totaled this season, I wouldn't be shocked. So like I think there's a lot to like about. Jacob Wilson. I think Pena impacts the game in more ways. And his batting average, while I don't think is going to be as good as Jacob Wilson's, there's some real growth in Pena's game so far.
Starting point is 00:52:17 He is hitting the ball harder. He is striking out less. He is hitting more line drives. I don't know. Jeremy Pena might be like a 285 hitter the rest of the way. And, you know, was he? he was a 15-20 guy last year.
Starting point is 00:52:36 I don't think he's going to be a 20-homer guy, but 15-20 seems reasonable. I'll take him over Jacob Wilson, yeah. So I have turned the corner on Jacob Wilson and I'm ready to start giving him the benefit of the doubt. It's obviously a weird profile that almost never works in the modern game. But here he is a quarter into his rookie season, and he's doing exactly that.
Starting point is 00:53:01 And really then some. because no, he shouldn't be a viable source of home runs. And yet he was in the minors last year. He was in spring training at, I think, four home runs. And now he's at five in his rookie season, a quarter of the way through. I would take the under for 20. I don't think he's going to reach that. But he has more power than Luis Arise.
Starting point is 00:53:29 I'm willing to say at this point. We've always made the comp with Wilson. in a best case scenario, he's Luis Arise. I don't know that that's true anymore. And I think he is going to be an outlier for batting average with good enough power that I haven't 15th at shortstop now. And 15 to 25 at shortstop, it's very jumbled. But I want to make a statement with my ranking of Wilson
Starting point is 00:53:56 because I'm ready to buy in. Is that ahead of Jeremy Pena? Yeah. Yeah, Pena is, I think, 20th right now, which he could be higher. But then I'd have to drop somebody else who also feels like he's top 20. I'll do the cop-out thing, and I'll say Jacob Wilson in points and Jeremy Pena. That might be the answer. Yep.
Starting point is 00:54:20 Michael Garcia continues his strong season, hit his fifth home run. He's hitting 295. He's got 10 steals, hitting the ball really hard. It looks like he's taking a step forward. at some point, maybe we're there already, have you guys thought about it, moving Michael Garcia ahead of names like Nico Horner or Matt McLean,
Starting point is 00:54:39 who maybe have not lived up to expectations thus far. I moved him ahead of Ehueni of Suarez. I don't know. Let me check the second base. I was moving them ahead of some big names. I just can't remember who. So I've moved Michael Garcia ahead of Tommy Edmund on IL. Jackson Holiday.
Starting point is 00:55:01 No, I haven't. I haven't moved him ahead of Horner and McLean. So that's the answer. Yeah, I want to buy into Garcia. It's still a pretty small sample size. And he's always hit the ball hard. How much, like his barrel rate is up from 3.7% to 6.2% last year. One, 6.2 still below.
Starting point is 00:55:31 average. And two, we are at a point in the season where the difference between 6.2% and 3.7% is like, what, two batted balls over the course of the whole season. So I, there's a lot that looks really good with Michael Garcia, but there's always been some interesting skills there. So I'm not quite ready to, to buy in with my, with my whole chest on Mikeau Garcia yet. All right. Let's wrap up with some leftovers here.
Starting point is 00:56:02 And on the pitching side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned in a quality start against the athletics. Chris Bassett, a solid outing against Tampa Bay. I hadn't realized he was struggling before this. His previous four starts in ERA over six. Nick Lodolo could not take advantage of the White Sox, unfortunately, five and a third. Seven hits, three runs aloud. Luis Castillo, a strong start against the Yankees, six innings one run, six strikeouts, and Jesus Lazardo was great against the Cardinals.
Starting point is 00:56:29 seven innings, one run, six strikeouts with 13 whiffs on 100 pitches. Anything to add on Lazzardo, Castillo, Nicololo, Bassett, or Yamamoto? There was some interesting stuff going on with Castillo. His velocity was back to where it was last year. Still down from peak, certainly, but that was a good sign.
Starting point is 00:56:51 He also threw a lot more splitters and was getting more drop on those splitters than he has. I think it was about three inches more of drop with the splitter or the slider, excuse me. And it was really good. Seven whiffs, 47% whiff rate. He commanded it well. I'm still mostly pessimistic about Luis Castillo. And when I update rankings tomorrow, I was planning on moving him outside of the top 40, which I would guess you guys have already done.
Starting point is 00:57:24 I have him right at 40. But now, it might be like a, well, let's see. There are a couple of guys I want to move ahead of him still. So he might drop to 40 just when like Robbie Ray and McKenzie Gore and Chris Bubich, who I probably should have had ahead of him all along, or at least more recently than this. But I'm not actively looking to move Castillo down right now after this at least. Yamamoto, by the way, his velocity was down across the board in this start.
Starting point is 00:57:55 Fastball down 1.1, splitter down 1.5, sinker down 1.6. six dealt with the shoulder injury last year. So I think it's just something to watch. Like if this becomes a trend for Yamamoto, then maybe something is going on behind the scenes. The splutter was down too in his previous start, though I think the other pitches were fine. So let's pay attention there.
Starting point is 00:58:18 Turk Scouble wanted to mention he's human after all, six and a third innings, five runs, but still had 11 strikeouts and 21 whiffs on 95 pitches. And then Gavin Williams, a solid outing against the Brewers, five innings, two runs, six strikeouts. The whiffs were there through 64% of his pitches for strikes, just the second time with one walk or fewer this season.
Starting point is 00:58:39 So I know Gavin Williams has been so polarizing and we're kind of like grasping at straws here, but I thought this was a step in the right direction, I guess. It's been steps in the right direction for several starts now. The sweeper has better than a 50% whiff rate. I think still it was, what was at this start? It was less than 50 in this start, but it was still high.
Starting point is 00:59:01 So I think overall it's still more than 50. Obviously, he threw strikes at a better rate in this start. That's been the biggest kind of the final hurdle to clear for Williams because the control has been so bad. It's been less than a 61% strike rate for the year. But in this start, he got it to 64, which is about what it was last year. And that's not great, but I think it's manageable if your stuff is good enough. and I think Gavin Williams, he's shown in recent starts that the stuff
Starting point is 00:59:31 is good enough. Maybe not in exactly the way we were thinking. But if your number two pitch has better than a 50% whiff rate, that's good stuff. All right, some hitting leftovers, Jose Ramirez is picking things up. He hit his eighth home run, and in 12 May games, he's hitting
Starting point is 00:59:46 372 with three homers and six steals. Kutel Marte, two for four with a double dong. Aaron Judge did it again, hit his 15th home run. Kyle Swarber, later in the evening, then tied Aaron Judge also hit his 15th home run. Gunner Henderson is coming alive
Starting point is 01:00:02 last 17 games. He's hitting 3.48 with four homers, one steel, an OPS over a thousand. Riley Green had himself a big day, three for four with his 10th homer. Tyler Soderstrom, clearly was listening to the podcast yesterday because he hit his 10th home run after
Starting point is 01:00:18 we mentioned the power. There was a bit of a power drought there for Tyler Sotterstrom. And Alex Bregman hit his 11th home run that's back-to-back games with a homer, I'll just bring this up. Dare I ask, is Alex Breggman
Starting point is 01:00:34 a sell high candidate? Because he is vastly overperforming his expected stats right now. He always does. Yeah. That's kind of the Alex Breggman experience. So no, I am,
Starting point is 01:00:52 look, my preseason, one of my bold predictions preseason was he would bat over 300 this year. career high batting ever. I think it was technically career high batting average, but that basically me and he hits over 300. And seeing that his pull air rate is the highest it's ever been, after two years where it was about the lowest it's ever been,
Starting point is 01:01:12 I think great approach for the park he's playing in now, and I think great approach for the hitter he is. And yeah, I'm kind of disregarding the expected stats in his case. I think especially since, third base has a number of underachievers. I mean, even Junior Cominero, you know, the home runs are fine, but everything else is not where you want it to be. I think you just enjoy the blessing of having a stunt third baseman.
Starting point is 01:01:41 All right, the call to the bullpen. We'll just bounce around here to the things that matter most. Luke Weaver struck out the side for his fourth save. I don't know how close we are to Devin Williams getting his job back, to be honest right now. For the Phillies in game one, Jose Alvarado, started the eighth inning with a one-run lead. He gave up a hit and a walk.
Starting point is 01:02:00 He only recorded one out. He was relieved by Orion Kirkering, who got the next two outs. And then Jordan Romano struck out the side in the ninth for his fourth save. And he now has the last two saves for the Phillies. So I don't think Romano is just the guy, but I think it's kind of going to be
Starting point is 01:02:20 still mixing match along the way. He's probably going to pick up some saves. at the very least it feels like Jose Alvarado's value has just been crushed here in the last couple appearances I imagine he'll still get some saves and they're going to kind of tandem it with those two but Romano is back in the mix
Starting point is 01:02:41 and at least over the last what is it five six appearances he's looked really good so that's how they intended it to be and it seems like they're going back to it For the Tigers, Tommy Canley entered with two outs in the seventh inning. The bases were loaded in a tie game. He got Williare Abraeu to hit into a double play. Canley then pitched a perfect eighth.
Starting point is 01:03:02 Will Vest pitched the ninth inning with the game tied. He gave up two singles. He escaped trouble. He wound up with the win. On the other side, our oldest Chapman blew the game and took his second loss. The Blue Jays, Jeff Hoffman was unavailable. Jimmy Garcia got the ninth inning with the two-run lead. He struck out one for his third save, and this is a name to watch.
Starting point is 01:03:21 you have Jeff Hoffman, you might want to just handcuff him with Jimmy Garcia, or if you're in a deeper categories league where you just speculate on everybody, I think Garcia's a name to look at there. For the Marlins, Jesus Tinoco got the ninth inning with a two-run lead. He struck out one for his fourth save, and boom, just right back to Tanoco, who kind of feels like he's settling in as the guy right now. It does seem that way. There really hasn't, the save opportunities has been so for you and far between. that it's been harder to say for sure, but Calvin Foshae hasn't been tasked with the ninth inning in weeks.
Starting point is 01:04:01 He's been pitching like fifth, sixth innings at times lately. Yeah. So seeing them go right back to Tonoco the day after he blows his save, I think is encouraging for as much as you can value a Marlins closer. Yeah, I mean, that's bad team, bad pitcher. But yeah, I guess he is the closer now. I don't know how much it matters. And then for the Pirates, David Bendnar pitched in the eighth inning
Starting point is 01:04:26 with a four-run lead facing two, three and four in the Mets lineup. So obviously a big spot there. He struck out two. And then Dennis Santana got the ninth. He gave up a hit, but he did close out the game in this one. Every time Santana's pitched, since they made the managerial change, has been in the ninth inning. And I think every time the Bednar's pitch, it's been in the eighth.
Starting point is 01:04:45 Bednar pitched the other day in the ninth with the game tied. And then maybe Santana didn't pitch. Well, yeah, because Santana was, unavailable. He had been worked too much. But every time, every time Santana's been rested and the scenario called for a closer, I think it's technically only one save, but a scenario where you would normally use your closer. Don Kelly's gone with Santana. So I think if Bednar performs well, it's still eventually going to go back to him, but it's not his right now. I mean, I'm pretty sure Santana, let me make sure.
Starting point is 01:05:21 get this right. I'm pretty sure Dennis Santana has like 11 strikeouts and 18 headings right now. I think eventually Dennis Santana will lose that job and David Bednar will get it back. But where it looked like David Bednar
Starting point is 01:05:37 had just taken the job back, now I think it's not his job. So at least for now, it's Santana's it looks like. All right. To stream or not to stream on Thursday, we have AJ Smith Chauver up against the nationals. Tomoyuki Sugano home against the twins
Starting point is 01:05:53 Nick Martinez is home against the White Sox Martinez is a good choice AJ Smith Schaver Yeah and um Sugano probably No you know what I had Lattel ahead of Sugano and my sleeper pitchers I think we're kind of the same guy yeah
Starting point is 01:06:10 Those are four pretty good options For a Thursday when there's so few games That's I'm trying to remember if I had Martinez or Smith Schafer ranked time but I like them both for this start. I like them both for this week. And then on Friday, we have Shane Smith at the Cubs,
Starting point is 01:06:27 Kate Horton home against the White Sox. Andre Palante is at the Royals, Chad Patrick Home Against the Twins, J.P. Sears at the Giants, Andrew Heaney at the Phillies. I think Sears at San Francisco because it's obviously a big park, fly ball pitcher. I think that's a good match.
Starting point is 01:06:46 And he's been pitching well anyway, even nodding big parks. So, yeah, I like Sears at San Francisco. I think that's pretty good. You could, Kate Horton against the White Sox, I mean, the appeal is obvious there. But I'm skeptical,
Starting point is 01:07:06 given the way his first start went, followed an opener. Did he even go four innings? I think it was four, yeah. It was exactly four. I'm skeptical. There's really an opportunity for Horton to have a high impact.
Starting point is 01:07:18 He probably won't hurt you, against the White Sox. So if it's him or nothing, probably be willing to do it. But I'm keeping, I'm tempering my expectations. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott,
Starting point is 01:07:32 Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow.
Starting point is 01:07:41 Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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