Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Aaron Nola Re-Signs With the Phillies & Brandon Woodruff Non-Tendered! (11/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 19, 2023

Aaron Nola has re-signed with the Phillies on a seven year, $172 million deal (1:34)! ... How early is Nola being drafted in early drafts (7:28)? ... Brandon Woodruff led the notable non-tenders this weekend (11:00). ... We also had a bunch of smaller trades (13:43). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. And the first domino of free agency has fallen. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Sunday, November 19th. Sorry to all to interrupt your football experience. But Aranola is headed back to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172 million deal. We also had some smaller trades and non-tenders last Friday night. So we'll quickly run through those as well. but let's just start here. Scott, Aranola, back to the Phillies, mentioned seven years, $172 million, and according to John Heyman, Nola turned down even more money to remain in Philadelphia. He was the SP 30 in Roto this past season, SP 18 and head-to-head points. So a big disparity between those two, and a lot of that is because Aranola is a workhorse. He throws a lot of innings. Obviously, those matter a little bit more in points leagues. He has 1,000,

65 and a third innings pitch since the start of 2018. That is second to only Garrick Cole. And I would say as of now, Scott, that is probably his best ability. What he provides in fantasy is the ability to be out there and throw lots of nings. Best ability is durability, you could say. And I would agree. I would agree with that.

Of course, we've seen Aaron Nolam be more than just an innings eater in the not-so-distant past. And so I think from a fantasy perspective, it's hard not to be disappointed with this news. It kind of takes all the chance for a renewal of enthusiasm. It kind of discards it because now we're stuck in the status quo. And things needed to get better for Aaron Nola based on the way this past season went really two of his past three seasons in ERA around $450. And now there isn't that change of scenery argument. that you can make for Aeronola because he's staying put. It also would have been nice to see him maybe go to a place that isn't so hitter-friendly,

just given that when he struggles, home runs are usually the issue. And so now we don't have that to look forward to either. Actually, going through his homeway splits in recent years, it doesn't look like there's anything definitive to say about that. But Philadelphia is a good place to hit. He gives up a lot of home runs. Maybe not the best possible place for him to pitch. So that disappointment, though, you could look at it another way where because enthusiasm

and fantasy for Aaron Nola is at an all-time low and it seems like it's going to remain there with him going back to Philadelphia, there is an opportunity for a potential bargain pick here because, like I said, to the last three years, ERA, around 4.50, is anybody that enthusiastic about drafting Aaronola back with the Phillies? We're getting into human psychology a bit here, I guess, but I would suspect not. I would suspect Aaron Nola, we're going to do that again. And so that might create an opportunity to get him for less than you've ever been able to get him before. And it could still go well. I mean, he looked better in the postseason. And there was,

mechanical change he made to create a more direct path to home plate, basically improve his control. He was having some issues. He's a guy who has to live on the corners. And when he's forced to throw the ball pitch down the middle to get strikes, that's where he gets in trouble with the home run. So will that tweaking, is that something that'll carry over into next season? I mean, look what happened the year in between the two.

where Aaronola had about a 450 ERA. There's still a good pitcher in there. And, I mean, if you look at the game log for Aaron Nola, I think that makes it even more clear. We mentioned at the front of this how Goody is working deep into games. I mean, the game log, a lot of those starts, a lot of the individual starts Aeronola had are the kind that are only accessible to true aces. I see seven innings, 10 strikeouts, seven innings one hit 12 strikeouts,

seven in a third innings, 12 strikeouts, seven one hit innings with nine strikeouts. Like, there's some great starts here in the game log for Aeronola, even though it ultimately ended up with an ERA around 450. So he's still, he's still somebody that you should be happy to have leading your staff now. But now you should be happy to have leading your staff still. But now you may be able to get a more like a number three than a number one. Yeah, lots of great points there. Scott. Quick, first up on the postseason, he made four starts Aeronola this year.

and 235 ERA, 0.96 whip, 304 FIP, 313 Sierra. Everything was great in the postseason. As for the home road splits in his career, I didn't notice anything there, 3.20 ERA at home, 4.25 on the road. So some people might have pointed to that as a reason for optimism. Again, trying to get Nola out of Philadelphia. I don't think that's really been an issue. I think the bigger problem with Philly is their defense, right?

Like, their defense hasn't been great. probably doesn't project to be great entering 2024 either. And Aranola, again, he does get strikeouts, but I think he is someone that might have benefited from getting a great defense behind him as well. So I think those maybe, that might be a negative side of him staying in Philly. You mentioned like this odd year, even year thing,

446 ERA this past season, 463 in 2021. That was kind of sandwiched around a 3.25 ERA in 2022. So we know he's in there. We know that there is a great pitcher in there. And if you just look since the start of 2021, he's got a 331 fit, a 23.3% K-minus walk rate during that span. That's 7th best among qualified starting pitchers.

So there is a legit ace starting pitcher in there for Aeronola. It's just a matter of consistency. And honestly, we haven't seen too much of that over the past three years. The draft price so far, I think there's been about, let's see, I have the 80 people. up 37 drafts. So more drafts happening now.

We're getting a bigger sample, slightly bigger. The ADP is 56.4 for Aeronola, the SP11 off the board, Scott. So no discount. I don't know if that will change now that people know he's back in Philly. Maybe he drops down a little bit. Notice that you have him as your SP 19 off the board. But I was a little shocked to see that the early ADP has NOAA as the SP11 off the board. Yeah.

I mean, I may have the psychology wrong. Once, you know, mock draft results aren't that meaningful until we get into March, I feel like. It's just kind of a foretaste, and they can change pretty drastically once the offseason is done, and once we're seeing them play in spring training again. And so it may just be that Aaron Nola carries a lot of name value still, and maybe there haven't been the deep dives into the numbers yet. But maybe, I don't know, like maybe that durability. he counts for more with people than I'm giving it credit for.

And, you know, he is a consistent source of 200 plus strikeouts as well, which is valuable, even if he ends up with an ERA near or above four. I can say if he ends up being a top 12 pitcher still, I probably won't be so invested in him. But I do think enthusiasm would be higher if he signed somewhere else just because you get that glimmer of hope that, oh, okay, maybe they're going to do. for him what Philly hasn't been able to do for him in recent years. I mentioned you had Aranola as your SP-19 off the board. Will you drop him at all on the ranking scouting scouting or just kind of leave him where he's at?

I'll probably leave him where he's at. Let me see. Let me pull it up and see exactly who he's surrounded by. Yeah, I mean, Yoshinobu, Yamamoto, I have right behind him. And so there's a chance he could move up or down depending on where he signs. Free agent himself, big picture out of Japan. but then right behind that is Justin Steele, Kyle Braddish, Max Scherzer, I think Aeronola belongs ahead of those guys.

So yeah, I'm pretty happy with where I have Nola. All right, again, Aranola headed back to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172 million deal. And we're going to take a quick break when we return. We'll talk about some of the notable non-tenders, as well as some smaller trades that went down. Scott, your Atlanta Braves were a little busy this past weekend. So we'll talk about that right after this.

Welcome back in. Let's quickly run through some of the notable non-tenders from Friday evening. And the biggest name obviously is Brandon Woodruff, who is likely to miss most, if not all of 2024, due to shoulder surgery that he had recently. We know that he's great when he pitches, Scott, a 3.10-10-0 ERA, 1.05 whip in his career, 10.4K per 9. But Woodruff was limited to just 67 innings this year. again, probably not going to contribute much in 2024. Maybe a team signs him to a two-year deal looking forward to 2025. But even then, you know, he's coming back from a huge injury. I think that's the biggest name that got non-tendered.

Yeah, I would agree. And it wasn't terribly surprising since he is, this is his final year that the Brewers could control him. And he commands a seven-figure salary. I'm sorry, eight-figure salary and arbitration. And you were going to pay a guy eight figures for a year where he's not really going to be available to you. So I do think Brandon Woodruff will sign a two-year deal somewhere. And we'll have a lot more to say about him entering 2025.

I guess there is an outside chance he returns at some point in 2024 and gives us a little sneak preview of what to expect. But I am not really putting any worth on Brandon Woodruff for 2024 drafts as of now. Yeah, I think he's a name to remember in Keeper Leagues, Dynasty Leagues, you know, maybe some startups where you draft him late, and then you can keep him for a lower draft cost or a lower salary cost the following year. Again, that is Brandon Woodruff. A few other names that were non-tendered, Rowdy Tellez, Nixon Zell, Austin Meadows, Spencer Turnbull, Juan Yippez, Dan Vogelbach, Dominic Smith.

Nothing too surprising here, Scott. I don't think there's like a standout talent either. Maybe if Rowdy Telez winds up on a team where he's. he's the everyday DH, he could still have an impact there. But was there anything notable from that group? No, I mean, some interesting names from the past, but not shocking in terms of, oh, I can't believe they non-tendered that guy.

Rati-Tales limited defensively and coming off a bad year after a really good year previously. But, yeah, it's going to be difficult for him to find a role where he gets enough at bats to matter. in fantasy, I would say, not impossible, but difficult. And, you know, names like Nick Senzel, Kyle Lewis, we cared about not so long ago in fantasy, but they've never really found any traction, at least not in recent years. And I'm not particularly concerned where they wind up.

All right, let's run through some of these trades that went down. And your Atlanta Braves acquired reliever Aaron Bummer from the White Sox for a whole bunch of players. Not any that I know will be good, but this was kind of like... But names that you know. Yes, that you know. Definitely a quantity trade here.

The White Sox received Michael Soroka, Jared Schuster, Nikki Lopez, Braden Shoemake, and minor league righty, Riley Goans. Some people, you know,

might be taken a little back here. Obviously, some big names from the past, part of this trade. Aaron Bummer, the surface level number is this season 679, ERA, a 153 whip. Obviously, those are not good,

but you dig a little bit deeper, a 358 FIP, a 351-X-FIP. He's a controllable lefty, get strikeouts. So I understand why the Braves acquired him, but it was a decent amount of names that they gave up in that deal. Yeah, so it was definitely, I mean, it's not a deal with major fantasy implications, bummer going the other way, whatever, he's going to be a middle reliever. And then you have this slew of players who we have talked. about before, Michael Soroka, obviously the biggest, but it's been several years since he was of

real fantasy value. I think it's impossible to talk about this trade without talking about the other one where the brave sent Kyle Wright to the Royals for, I don't even remember who was for, Jackson Cowar. Jackson Cowar is who they got in return. I mean, if you're just, if you're grading these trades by name value, like one on our first. of the Braves doing, but a lot of it has to do with, I think, similar to a Brandon Woodruff situation, really, not to that same extreme. Soroka and Kyle Wright aren't the caliber of pitchers.

Woodruff is, and they're not right on the verge of free. I think Soroka is actually, but Wright still has a couple years of team control, but we know Wright is going to be out all year recovering from shoulder surgery. And they just decided they'd rather have the 40-man spots. They'd rather have the money that they'd save by trade. those guys away than to gamble on them bouncing back to form at some point. I think given the significance of Kyle Wright's injuries, it's hardly a sure thing. He's going to be back to the guy we saw in 2021.

And I don't think anybody's that hopeful Michael Soroka is going to get back to being the pitcher he was as a rookie. So just by purging that many spots on their 40-man roster, clearing out that many spots on their 40-man roster. You have to think the Braves are planning to make a big splash here. I actually thought

Aaron Nola was going to be the most likely. And obviously, now he's staying in Philadelphia. But, but yeah,

they're planning something big with all those spots. I'll tell you, the most curious part about the hall that got sent to the White Sox

for Aaron Bummer was that two short stops and Nikki Lopez and Braden shoemake. Not that either of them has considerable upside for fantasy or is like a first division

starter, a shortstop or anything like that. But a shortstop depth and shortstop depth was something they've been, they had a hard time finding all year after losing Dansby Swanson and free agency. And it sounds like Von Grissom, the plan is to shift him to left field, so he's not going to be part of that

shortstop depth. So they're going to have to fill some of those spots. They freed up. just with short stops. So that was the most curious part of the move to me more so than the fact that they dealt away Soroka and Kyle Wright. Yeah. And just lastly,

on Soroka and Schuster that went over to the White Sox, as of now, it's very early in the offseason. My guess is the White Sox will continue to unload and they'll trade away Dillon Seas, maybe some other pieces. They're going to have a lot of young guys in their rotation. Not that they're going to be fantasy viable just from the get-go,

but maybe they turn into streamers. I think there is going to be quite a bit of opportunities there in the White Sox rotation. So something to remember with that. Some other trades that went down, the Marlins acquired Vidal Bruhan, who was a former top prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays. Very clearly has not worked out

so far. My guess is he could be some kind of super utility guy off the bench for them as of now. If he gets a chance to play every day with that kind of speed, you know, maybe makes an impact for fantasy. The Mariners acquired Luis Arias. You mentioned the Royals acquired, acquired Kyle Wright. They also traded for Nick Anderson from the Atlanta Braves. And then the brewers acquired Jake Bowers, which might have not mattered, but Rowdy Telles was non-dendered. So as of now, Jake Bowers is like a starter for the brewers. I don't know if that will remain. But some names there, Scott, any of those matter. Vidal Bruhan, Luis Arras, Jake Bowers.

Probably not. Probably not. I don't know that we have a final verdict on Bruhan, but he did nothing with. his limited opportunities with the raise the past couple years. And I think the, what's the expression? The bloom is off the rose. Is that the expression? That sounds right. Yeah. I don't know.

It sounds, if it's wrong, I will sound stupid, but that's okay. I'll own that. Yeah, I think, honestly, I think there's a better chance. Michael Soroka turns into something with the white socks who, of course, have rotation needs. Or even that Nikki Lopez turns into something with the white socks. Now that Tim Anderson's gone, I suspect he'll get a, an opportunity to play every day for them at shortstop, and he's been a viable base deal in the past.

I don't think he's going to be a big deal in fantasy, but I think there's a better chance he has some relevance than those players you just mentioned, Bowers, Bruhan, and who's the third? The third was Luis Arias to the Mariners. Yeah, yeah, I don't see them playing, having a significant enough role to matter and fantasy. All right, a bunch of smaller moves that got done.

Again, just ran through all of those. And just a heads up for programming this week. We'll have a pod that's coming out tomorrow on Monday, November 20th, where we recap the shortstop position and take a look at early rankings. And then later on this week, Wednesday morning, we'll have a podcast with the Welsh and I breaking down shortstop prospects. For Scotty, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.