Fantasy Baseball Today - Aaron Nola Shutout, Drop-O-Meter & Sell Anthony Volpe!? (5/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 15, 2024

Aaron Nola threw a four-hit shutout and his velocity was up (3:20). ... Reese Olson continues to pitch well and needs to be added (6:00). ... Rank Olson, Gavin Stone and Erick Fedde. ... News (16:45): Ronel Blanco was ejected for a foreign substance. ... Let's fire up the DROP-O-METER for Reid Detmers, Paul Goldschmidt and five others (25:25). ... Are Michael Wacha or Ryan Weathers worth adding (38:34)? ... Abraham Toro and Connor Joe continue to hit (43:41). ... This might be your last chance to buy Matt Olson and sell Anthony Volpe (50:40). ... Hey, real quick! Why isn't Nick Pivetta throwing his breaking pitches more (54:25)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:00:50). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, May 15th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White,

and today on the show, it's time to fire up the dropometer for seven potential drop candidates. We had some big pitching performances, and I'm stealing Adam Mazers old, hey real quick, some quick pitching questions that I have for Scott. We'll get to that later on. Thanks for being with us. It's our latest start of the year. I realize that. Thank you for your patience.

Five games on the West Coast is just a killer for making the rundown. Those are my excuses for the night. But here we are. We appreciate you hanging out and being with us on this very late slash early Wednesday morning. Let's jump in. Go crazy, folks. Go crazy. All right, Scott, what made you go crazy here on Tuesday night or afternoon?

I am going to say the Aaron Nola shutout. Oh, yeah. Made me go crazy because it was a shutout, right? It was a shutout. Aaron Nola is doing his even-year thing, which is pitch like an ace. And this was maybe, well, I mean, it was obviously. obviously his most impressive start. Strugout 8, walked on.

But beyond that, beyond the fact it was a complete game shutout, his velocity was up one to 1.7 miles per hour on his top three pitches, which basically returned it to last year's levels. His velocity was down early in the year.

He was succeeding in spite of it. His velocity was basically back to normal in this start. And I think that's encouraging because I wasn't totally buying the success Aeronola that the even-year success Aeronola was having. And I know I've long been an Aeronola apologist and I don't know that I ever had a chance

to voice my concerns on the podcast prior to this shutout. But his swinging strike rate this year has been pitiful, below 9%. His expected ERA, his FIP, his ex-FIP, all virtually identical. to last year when he was doing his odd year, Aaron Nola thing,

which is not pitched like an ace. So I thought the success he was having might be a little bit phony. If this velocity holds here with this complete game shut out, if he keeps getting whiffs at the rate he did in this start, then I think those concerns are going to dissipate for me. And I can get more behind the idea that Aaron Nola is a fantasy. the ace and not just a high-end pitcher who's less than an ace, which is what I worried he was. Yeah, I noticed a lot of the same things here.

Scott, the velocity being back up closer to where it was last year for Aranola, the swinging strike rate being down as much as it was heading into this start. But he did have 13 swinging strikes on 109 pitches here. It was a four-hit shot out, eight strikeouts to zero walks at the New York Mitz. and just quickly peeking at the rankings, which I will be updating in full force on Wednesday. And you have Aeronola as your SP 13. I have them at 16. So we're kind of in the same range.

Maybe I'll push him back up a little bit, but I think that's probably the right spot. He's like a high-end SP2. That is Aeronola, and that was a fantastic start. Another fantastic start came from Reese Olson, who was awesome, but it came against the Miami-Marlin.

So you put a little asterisk now, next to this one, but he's pitched really well recently, and in this start it was eight shutout innings, three hits, zero walks, six strikeouts, with 13 swinging strikes on 96 pitches for Reese Olson. He's allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his eight starts so far the season. He's down to a 209 ERA, a 101 whip, 255 FIP.

The X-FIP is a little bit higher. It says there has been some home run luck so far this season, but gets a lot of ground balls. I wish the strikeout rate was a little bit higher, Scott, but overall it's been a really, really nice start to the season for Reese Olson. He is 60% rostered. What did you see? And do you think he should just be a must roster pitcher at this point?

I mean, I've been saying that for a long time. I think the reason Reese Olson isn't is because he doesn't have a win yet. He's a very bad run support for having an ERA in the low twos. And I think people are just looking at those point totals and head-to-head leagues and saying, yeah, this guy's not so great. But Reese Olson has been pitching really well. Quick clarification before I get into Olson more. I think you gave my points league, my head-to-head points ranking for Aaronnola, 13th among starting pitchers. It's actually 15th in Roto.

So I haven't behind Freddie Peralta and Dylan C's in that format. So that's where I stand on Nola. As for Olson, as well as he has pitched, as much as I like him, the 209 ERA is too good to be true. That maybe goes without saying, but specifically he hasn't allowed a home run yet, and he will allow a home run. Several home runs at some point. That'll bring that ERA up. Having said that, he probably won't allow a ton of home runs because he has a 55% ground ball rate. He has a top 10 type ground ball rate. He has a great whiff rate on the

changeup and slider, which has always been true for Reese Olson since we saw him late last year. And he looks really good. I would make a sell high case for him, except that he's already being undervalued because he doesn't have a win yet. So I think you just pick him up where he's available. You just write him out where you already have him. Again, that is Reese Olson, other names that could be available in shallower leagues. Gavin Stone is all the way up to 77% rostered, but he turned in another quality start here. He was at the Giants. He threw six innings of one-run ball, more walks and strikeouts, three walks, two strikeouts, but did have 11 swinging strikes on 90 pitches. Again, that is Gavin Stone. He's turned in four straight quality starts,

allowing exactly one earned run in each. And Eric Fetty, dominant once again against the nationals. He threw seven shutout, only allowed three. Three hits, six strikeouts to zero walks, only had six swinging strikes in this one. Feels like Fetty is constantly tinkering Scott from each start to the next. And, you know, in this one he led with the sinker and the cutter. I think that's why the swinging strikes were down a little bit more. But they have been down each of the past three starts. That hasn't mattered because Fetty has now allowed two run runs or less in seven of his nine starts.

And he's down to a 260 ERA at a 106 whip. How would you rank those three? Fetty, Olson, and Gavinston. So I'm going to go Gavin Stone one. I guess I got to go Fetty over. I'm sorry, I'm going to rank Reese Olson one. I guess I'm going to go Fetty over Stone. But I don't feel great about it.

I don't, for being somebody who was especially high on Fetty coming into the season, I don't really understand how he's succeeding now. He's leaned a lot on the cutter especially. And, you know, it doesn't miss him. any bats with that pitch. The ones that were hyped with his new arsenal that he picked up prior to going to the Korean League last year, the ones that we were hyping up were the split change and the sweeper.

And those have been kind of MIA for Feddy this whole time. He's now down to a 260 ERA and a 106 whip. His FIP, though, is 389. His ex-FIP is 358. is expected ERA. It's not updated after the start, but it's similar. It's mid to high threes.

So by all three measures there, he's overperforming. And I think if, you know, if you just look on a more granular level at what Eric Feddy's doing, not getting a ton of strikes, strikeouts, not an especially good control pitcher,

not an especially good ground ball pitcher like he was in the Korean League last year, just kind of a, I don't know, pretty middle of the road. there as far as grandpa rate goes, not giving up a specially weak contact, not really doing anything that would signal

Eric Fetty is like a great pitcher. Could he be that mid to high's three ERA guy? Yeah, I could see that. And I think he'll be streamable at times because of that. But if you are a mid to high three's ERA guy with less than a strikeout per inning on a team as bad as the white socks, what is that going to add up to for fantasy? and I don't think it's going to add up to much.

So Eric Fetty looks like a pretty strong sell-high case to me. And, you know, it'd have to be a league on the deeper side, I think, to get anything of real value for him. But I don't think he's going to be able to keep this up. Nothing underlying the actual 260 ERA suggests he could. And the bad team, the bad supporting cast, It makes it even worse. As for Gavin Stone,

we've been harping on how maybe he doesn't have anything but the change-up to work with, and so that might limit his upside. Well, he got five of his 11 whiffs in this start at San Francisco on the change-up, but he got four on the slider, which he threw 21% of the time, twice as often as usual. So he hardly uses the slider 10% normally, through it 21% of the time, this time got whiffs with it. It actually has a better whiff rate this year than the change-up.

It has a better than a 40% whiff rate. So maybe the key to unlocking Gavin Stone's potential is going to be mixing in that slider more. And maybe this is the start of it. Obviously, he has a great supporting cast opposite ends of the spectrum from Fetty as far as that goes. So that's why I'm kind of tempted to put Stone ahead of Fetty when I'm ranking these two.

but for now, I'll go ahead and say Fetty over Stone. I noticed the same thing with the slider for Gavin Stone. The biggest problem for me is that the strikeout to walk ratio is bad. It's flat out bad for Gavin Stone. 7.1% K minus walk rate. That's after this start, ranked 78th among 81 qualified starting pitchers for Gavin Stone. And his ex-fip is 445. Yeah, I think there's going to be a regression with him.

the biggest difference, which you spoke about with Fetty, is that Gavin Stone could pitch not so great and still wind up with a good amount of wins just because he pitches for the Dodgers. And we've seen that with James Paxson, who I think still has more walks than strikeouts on the season, and he's been racking up wins with the Dodgers as well. So if that's something that you're looking to chase,

I totally get going after Gavin Stone over someone like Fetty, but I do agree that Ries Olson would be at the top of the list for me. I will say that bad strikeout to walk ratio for Stone is mostly because the strikeout rate is low. And it's weird that the strikeout rate is so low given how much he misses bats, given what Stone's swinging strike rate is. Maybe it's because he has so many of those swinging strike rates. So many of those swinging strikes come on the changeup, but it makes him too predictable and two strike counts.

He's not able to put hitters away. That's why I'm hoping bringing in the slider more will change. change that for Gavin Stone. Because if it does, we could see a surge in strikeouts for him. I think that would help the strikeout rate. I would push back a little bit in that. I think the walk rate is still high, though. 3.3 walks for nine.

Yeah, no. It's manageable, though. It's mostly like a 3.1, 3.1 walks per nine. I'm sorry, let me look at the updated stats. 3.3 walks per nine isn't as bad to me as 5.9 Ks per nine. Yeah. Yeah. I think that is a fair assessment there on Gavin Stone.

A quick reminder that if you are listening, you can always listen and follow on Spotify. You can find both Fantasy Baseball Today and our five-minute podcast, FBT and Five, on Spotify. If you're watching live, you can scan the QR code that will take you right to the Fantasy Baseball Today's Spotify page. And again, thanks to everyone watching us live. Make sure to hit that like button.

Subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't already. Let's take our first break. When we return, into the news and notes here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in the news and notes. We haven't had one of these in a while, Scott. Ronell Blanco was ejected Tuesday because of a foreign substance on his glove,

which means he'll also be hit with a 10-game suspension. So you will not be using Renele Blanco in your lineups next week. And I always wonder how pitchers bounce back from something like this. If there's some kind of mental hurdle or, I don't know, It's just always kind of a weird situation with these foreign substance things. Was it driving his success? I think it's the biggest question. It's fair.

And I don't know. I mean, he was pointing out to the umpire that there was nothing sticky on his fingers. And I looked at the data from the start. It's not like his spin rates were way up or anything like that, which means either it was in his glove, but he wasn't really using it. or it doesn't mean this. I guess it would suggest that it was in his glove and he wasn't really using it or that he's been using it all along. And that's partly why he's exceeded expectations to this point.

What do you do with that suspicion? I don't know. I mean, I would have called Ronel Blanco a cell high prior to this start because he was overperforming. I think we've made that clear, you know, well worth rostering, but not going to be able to sustain his current pace. In light of this news, I don't know that you could call him a sell high anymore.

I don't know that anyone's going to be eager to buy. And in fact, I might look to buy, actually, if the cost is reasonable. If the cost is, you know, somebody on the back end of my pitching staff or a bench bat or something like that. just if somebody is going to presume, okay, this has been the whole key to Blanco's success, I just want to use this as an opportunity to get rid of him before he totally collapses. Maybe he does. That's why the cost would have to be reasonable. But I think just given the sentiment surrounding Blanco in the aftermath of this, you're more likely to get a discount buying than a good return selling. Bryce Harper was out of the lineup with a migraine, but is expected back on Wednesday. His teammate J.T. Real Muto is also expected back Wednesday

after missing three games with knee soreness. Austin Riley has now missed two straight with left side inflammation. Blake Snell's next rehab start will come Friday at AAA. Nico Horner was scratched from the lineup due to left hamstring tightness. Royce Lewis did some light running on the field Tuesday. He'll do more aggressive change of direction things later in the world. week and that will give more insight to the timeline for his rehab assignment. Evan Carter received a cortisone injection in his back and could rejoin the Rangers

lineup on Friday. Bobby Miller will throw two simulated innings on Wednesday. If all goes well, Miller will either move on to a SIM game or a rehab assignment. He's on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Both George Springer and Justin Turner were out of the lineup again with that illness that's been hampering the Blue Jays. Zach Gelloff was reinstated and in the lineup at second base for the Oakland A's, he is down to 73% rostered.

Scott, would you be looking to add Zach Gelloff if he was dropped? My guess is he's probably only available in shaller points leagues. Yeah, and that's the format where I wouldn't be so interested in adding him. Unless I just, you know, I was basically screwed at second base and was looking for any upside. I could find there. But outside of that, Gelloff was off to a terrible start. He strikes out a lot anyway, which doesn't make him so viable in points leagues.

He would kind of need to deliver his best case outcome to overcome that strikeout rate for points leagues. And I'm not willing to bet on that at this point. But if he happens to be out there in any categories leagues, for sure, pick him up. In my home league, it's a 12-team Hedgede points league, but we use Roto-style lineups. I think my second baseman and middle are Nolan, Gorman, and Zach Netto. I have so many injuries. Yeah, I actually had to drop Gell off because they only have three IL spots, so I'm probably going to pick them back up in a league like that.

Imaging revealed structural damage in Junghuli's left shoulder. He'll receive a second opinion from Dr. Neal Eletrage on Thursday. Reese Hoskins was placed in the IL with a right hamstring strain. Owen Miller was recalled from AAA. Evan Phillips will throw a bullpen on Wednesday. He's on the IL with a strained right hamstring. Patrick Bailey was placed back on the seven-day concussion IL retroactive to Sunday. Here's a name we haven't heard in a while.

Noel V. Marte has been able to play in exhibition games in Arizona during his suspension. And Scott, when would you be looking to add Noel V. Marte, who is eligible to return on June 19th? now I actually have some roto leagues some I guess on the deeper end like Tao wars where around 450 players are rostered and I think in the podcast for the people league which is 16 team league 22 players per team so that's around 350 players rostered I think I've already been stashing noel v. Marte in those leagues and obviously I'm going to try to hold on. Shallower points leagues where you want to use all your bench base on pitchers, you know, obviously it's not worth occupying a bench spot for another five weeks. But anything deeper, again, 350 plus players rostered,

especially if you need help at third base. I think now is when you need to make play for Noel V. Marte. Jonathan Aranda was activated by the raise and was not in the line. lineup against the right-handed pitcher. They opted for ESOC Paredes at D.H. with Ahmed Rosario at third and Richie Palazio said second.

Scott, I know that you are the biggest supporter of Jonathan Aranda, but I don't love this. I mean, against the righty, he's not in the lineup. No, but it came off the bench and got two of bats. Played third base, so maybe he'll pick up

eligibility at that position unexpectedly. Has also seen time at second base and first base in the past. So I'm excited about his return. A lot of people were tweeting at me about it. I don't want to

oversell it. Like somebody was asking me if he was a viable replacement at first base. And I don't think he is right now, unless it's a very deep league. There's probably somebody better. We don't know how Jonathan Arand is going to perform. His minor league numbers are ridiculous, and I'm not just talking about the slash line. The forward-facing numbers, I'm talking.

exit velocities. I'm talking plate discipline. It all looks amazing for Jonathan Ronda, which is why I'm so enthusiastic for him. But his previous stints in the majors have gone very poorly. And he doesn't have a job all to himself. And he might be out of the lineup a lot of times against left-handers. So it's more of a, okay, he's back. So let's scout what he does closely situation. It's more that situation than, okay, he's back, so let's get him in our lineups, you know?

And especially since the rehab assignment went pretty poorly for a run. He was striking out a lot. It was uncharacteristic for him. I'm surprised he got activated when he did. I'm not sure he has his timing down yet. So that's concerning because, you know, at 26 now, I guess he is and already having gotten the chances he is. He's gotten how many more chances will he get? I don't know that I like the idea that they're calling him up when he doesn't appear to have his timing down.

Maybe they have better ways of gauging that than I do. But I'm a little concerned about that aspect for Arontah too. As excited as I am about him in general. The Mets will recall Mark Vientos on Wednesday. It sounds like he'll work in a platoon with Brett Beatty at third base. And Michael Soroka has been moved to the White Sox bullpen. Brad Keller will take his spot in the rotation. Let's fire up the dropometer.

10 on the dropometer means you can be dropped in any size league. One, you probably want to hold on to that player, and we will start with two pitchers. Reed Detmer's is first up. He's still 76% rostered. Another rough outing here against the Cardinals, where he allowed five runs. Four of those were earned over five innings.

He still had seven strikeouts, still had 17 swinging strikes, and over his last five starts, Reed Detmer's has an 846 ERA, a 166 whip. I still remain. The underlying numbers still look really good. I get there is no way you could play Reed Detmer's right now, but, Scott, what do we do? The dropometer, read Detmer's.

Yeah, I'm going to put it at like a two. Oh, wow. Should it be even lower? No, no, no, no. I thought it was going to be higher. No, no, I thought it was going to be higher. It would have to be a very shallow league for me to consider dropping Debtmer's. because the talent level, I believe, is so high.

And the only scenario where I dropped Detmer's is just, I've accumulated a lot of quality pitching already because there's been a lot available on waivers throughout the year, and somebody's getting forced out. And it pains me to do it, but Demers is the one getting forced out. That's the scenario in which I drop him, which, again, would have to be a pretty shallow league. Would you drop him for any of the pitchers we mentioned earlier?

Stone, Fetty, Olson. I'd consider it with Olson, but not the other two. It'd be a close call, Detmer's and Olson. I think it would partly depend on how much trouble I was having filling out my lineup. Because as you say, it's hard to trust Detmer's in your lineup right now. We, I believe over the weekend said that we would drop Debtmers for Christian Scott, who is still available in a quarter of CBS leagues. Would you drop Reed Detmer's for,

Taj Bradley, who had a strong debut. No? No. Okay. Let's move over to Aaron Savali, who was still 75% rostered. He was at the Red Sox where he allowed three runs over five innings. He still did have six strikeouts, only two swinging strikes. Don't love that.

And over Savali's last five starts, it's an 887 ERA, a 171 whip. As I was writing all of this down, all my notes for Savali, I just kept thinking of myself, Scott. I've got to give it up. I've got to give up the Savali thing because I just, it's like fetch. I'm trying to make Savali happen. And it has not been happening. So where would you put him on the drop o meter?

Pretty high. Let's say eight on the drop ometer for Savali. But I don't think he's rubbish to use a British term. Garbage seems a little harsh. I don't, well, I'm saying he's not that. So maybe it's not harsh. I don't think he's like useless. for fantasy. I think he's a fine streamer. And that's basically what he's been to this point in his

career. It's, it should be clear by now that the, that rays aren't going to work their raise magic on him and turn him into a top of the rotation type, which is I think what you meant when you said letting him go, giving him up. Yeah. I, I was of the belief that Savali could have this Zach Eflin type season from last year. And that has not happened so far. Right. Yeah. Yeah, no, and I don't think it will. But I think as a streamer type, as a Dean Kramer, use them when the matchups are good, and he's in line for two starts,

especially in a points league. I think Savali is fine for that purpose, but that makes him pretty expendable. Yeah, I do think there will be some regression the other way for him. His home run rate is very high. His left-on-base percentage is very low. So again, you know, there will be some positive movement here for Savali, but not really somebody I would want to start right now.

Let's get into some of the hitters. And I've got some big names on this list, Scott. All of them had a sub-600 OPS entering Tuesday's action. And, you know, we're about six weeks into the season now. Paul Goldschmidt, where are we at? He did go two for five with his second stolen base here on Tuesday. But the strikeouts are a huge problem. 32% strikeout rate.

The zone contact is a career low. The swinging strike rate is a career high. these are all the things you do not want to see from an aging player, someone of Paul Goldschmidt's caliber. Where is he on the dropometer? Can you consider it in a shallower format? Maybe. I guess I'll go too because I think there is a circumstance that exists where dropping Goldschmidt is possible. It would have to be very shallow league, of course.

and in anything deeper than that, let's say a 12 team head to head league, I feel like, I feel like you're kind of handcuffed to them and that's frustrating, but you risk losing too much by dropping it at this point. I don't think freeing up that bench spot

is worth it in a league where there isn't constantly new talent emerging that is high-end. Yeah. So I'm discouraged by everything I'm seeing. I had Goldschmidt as a bus pick coming in. So it's it's affirming my fears for him. You know, he's even worse against the fastball this year. And I think that may be the clearest indication of aging happening for Paul Goldschmidt. But he is Paul Goldschmidt. We've seen him. We've written him off before when he's had a miserable start to the year. And he came back with MVP caliber numbers. and so I think you have to give him I think you have to give him a long leash here by the when can we give up? We usually say Memorial Day, right?

I mean, the end of this month? Maybe in a few more leagues, maybe he'll go from a two to four on the drop of meter at that point. But in leagues where you have a corner infield spot to fill, I think you need to hold on even longer than that. Yeah, it's a sunk cost. but I agree with you. There's not really much else.

I think you could stick them on the bench for now. You can play the matchups with, you know, maybe pick up a first basement and just play the matchups or try and buy on another name right now, someone like a Vinnie Pasquantino or a Yandi Diaz who's kind of off to, you know, Vinip's picking things back up a little bit.

But, you know, try and acquire one of those names and just ride with them until hopefully Goldschmidt picks it up. I want to give the specifics on this. I said he's even worse against the fastball this year. So hopefully I cite swinging strike rate enough that you have a frame of reference for it. You know, 12% is really good. 13, 14%, you're going to be among the league leaders. This is for pitchers.

Paul Goldschmidt's swinging strike rate on fastballs, the pitch you're going to swing and miss on least often. 19%. Oh, that's like, every fastball is Spencer strider to him is kind of like Jared Jones is he's saying. Wow.

Yeah. That's not good. That's a problem. Let's slide over to Glaver Torres who is batting 214. He's got two home runs, three steals of 569 OPS. Where is Glaver Torres on the dropometer?

I haven't looked into him in a while but my presumption is he'll just, you know, slow start. He hasn't fundamentally changed as a player. Let's see. His strikeout is up quite a bit from last year, but it is in line with career norms,

more or less. Last year was an outlier. For strikeout rate, he doesn't have a max exit velocity on the level he's used to yet. That's a little concerning. But at the same time, he has a long track record

of being a solid fantasy option. he's only 27 years old. I'll go three and a half on Gleubert Torres. And it's really just, again, those shallow league contexts where you have a great option at second base already, so you really just don't want them occupying a spot on your bench. Let's get into three outfielders. George Springer, who I mentioned has missed the past couple of days

due to illness, is betting 200 with three homers, six deals. So still kind of helping out a little bit with power and speed, but it's a 563 OPS. He is now a. up to 34 years old. This could be the beginning of the end here for George Springer. Scott, where is he on the dropometer? Well, outfield being as shallow as it is, I think that has to factor in.

Yeah. He has not hit a ball nearly as hard. Like his max exit velocity last year was almost 116 miles per hour, and he's only hit one 110. That's his hardest hit ball this year. which doesn't mean he couldn't have a harder pit ball going forward, but usually by now you've pretty much met your max exit velocity. George Springer, let's put him at, let's put him at a three.

Okay, what about Jackson Churio? We've talked about him a lot recently losing playing time. He's batting 2.10. Again, still chipping in power and speed. Four homers, six steals, 579 OPS, striking out quite a bit. Where is Jackson Churio on the dropometer? I feel like in a three outfielder points league, we might be there with Jackson Churio.

Yeah, I think so. Probably about a four. Mostly just in that format. Five outfielder leagues, no chance I'd drop them, but three outfielder leagues. You know, I'd have to feel pretty good about the three starters I have. But I think it's more likely Chorio gets sent down than that. allowed to struggle for the next two weeks.

Like if Memorial Day, he's just continued to do this, he's continued to be in and out of the lineup, he'll probably just get sent down at that point, I would guess. Last name is Cedric Mullins, who does have six homers and six steals. The batting average is down to 185 with a 592 OPS. How do you feel about Cedric Mullins on the dropometer? I think he's pretty dropable in a points league.

So let's put him right at a five. How about this? If you play in a three outfielder points league, would you be alright dropping any of Springer, Churio, or Mullins for, let's say, your top sleeper hitter of the week? Someone like a Max Kepler on a given basis or like a Brent Rooker before, you know,

when he was still available. Mullins, I'd be fine doing that. Chorio, you know, if it was a matter of, like, I'm for sure starting this player and I can't start. Torio, then yeah, I could see doing that. George Springer, probably not.

All right, let's take our final. Hopefully the numbers I gave line up with that. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll get into the rest of the waiver wire options. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. We spoke about the big waiver wire pitcher names earlier on, Gavin Stone, Reese Olson, and Eric Fetty.

A couple of their names that pitched decently well. Jose Buto was fine, but the walks continued to be a problem. Five innings. One hit, two runs, four walks, four strikeouts, had 10 swinging strikes on 97 pitches. Budo has a 308 ERA and a 113 whip. Trevor Williams was solid again at the White Sox in game one of their double header. Five innings, three runs. Only one of those was earned. He had two strikeouts and has now allowed one earned run or less in six of eight starts, but has only completed six innings once the season. So lots of five inning outings for Trevor. William. Ryan Weathers was great at the Tigers. He threw eight shot-out

innings with three hits, zero walks, and four strikeouts. Only five swinging strikes in that one. And Michael Waka with a much-needed strong start at the Mariners where he allowed just one run over six innings, seven strikeouts with 10 swinging strikes. That's back-to-back quality starts for Michael Waka. It's got any interest in this group. Waka, Weathers, Trevor Williams, and Jose Buto. I mean, Waka's probably going to improve because he has so much improving to do. I'm leaning toward the last two years being kind of fluky for him and that his mean,

that the mean that he's regressing to is more like that Aaron Savale, Dean Kramer class of pitcher where streamable in the right matchups, but definitely not must roster. So having said that, Waka is probably the most valuable of this group. Budo, his walk rate is five per nine now, five walks per nine innings. And I wonder if he could get the Budo once or if he's close to it. I don't think he's pitched his way out of the rotation yet. He's kept runs off the board well enough.

But they have Tyler McGill coming back. Hopefully they have Kodai Senga coming back. before too long. And I'm not sure Budo will be worth keeping in the rotation once everybody's right. So that's something to keep in mind with him. Ryan Weathers, I want to point this out for him because his ERA is down to 381 now to go with a 117 whip. Pretty good numbers, all things considered. But that's to go along with a 457 FIP and a 445.

X-FIP, just not enough strikeouts. And which it's kind of strange because the whiff rate on his main secondary offerings, the change-up and the sweeper are both really good. 38% whiff rate on the change-up, 55% whiff rate on the sweeper. I just think he throws his fastball too much and his fastball doesn't miss bats at all. So if Ryan Weathers were to really lean into those off-speed pitches, he may be on to something. But with his current approach, I'm skeptical he can keep that ERA south of four.

Two names in deeper leagues. Joe Ross pitched well against the Pirates. He allowed two runs over five innings. He had six strikeouts and 21 swinging strikes for Joe Ross. Pretty awesome start for him there. And Cal Quantrell has quietly pitched very well. The problem is that he plays for the Rockies. He was at the Padres where he allowed one run over six innings.

He had five strikeouts. only six swinging strikes, but Quantrell has now allowed one earned run or less in five of his past six starts. He's down to a 360-R-A that comes with a 132 whip. These are a deeper league options, Scott, but are you looking at any of them in any of your 15-team league? Joe Ross, Cal Quantrell? No, I'm not, but both are doing something kind of interesting that I'll take the time to mention here. Joe Ross, the 21 whiffs in this start. Okay, that's, it's not going to be that good very often.

But for the year, I believe this puts him at better than a 12% swinging strike rate so far, which as I mentioned earlier in the program is good. That's a good swinging strike rate. It's the best of his career. I wonder if it'll continue for Joe Ross. But as of now, it's just a curious development and no reason to show interest in him in fantasy. And Cal Quantrell's managed to keep his ERA. respectable despite pitching half his games in Cores.

And the way he's done that, I think, is he's basically just abandoned his breaking balls, which is probably the way you have to pitch if you're going to pitch half your games at Cores Field, because they don't break enough to have their effectiveness. And then if you try to recapture that on the road, it's going to be a problem for you. So just do away with him. He's basically going with the fastball and the splitter. and it's working well enough. It's working as well as it can

for somebody like Cal Quantrol. Let's slide over to the Waver Wire hitters and two names between 50 and 60% rostered. Abraham Toro just continues to rack up the hits right now. Two for five with a double and a run scored. He is now batting 2.95 with the Oakland A's. He's got an 800 OPS. He's let off in eight straight games.

And Connor Joe has now homered in three straight. That's right. My Connor. Joe, one for three with his sixth home run. He is betting 293 with a 370 on base percentage. 24 runs scored this year, 21 RBI, 890 OPS. He started eight of the past 10 games. Connor Joe is 53%.

Abraham Toro is 55. Do you think either of those numbers need to be higher? Than 55 and 53. No, I think that's about right. 15-teamed Roto leagues. They probably have to be rostered at this point. But I don't have a ton of confidence in either sustaining the numbers they're putting up right now. Connor Joe has a 228 expected batting average and a 389 expected slug.

Now, maybe he's just doing such a good job of pulling the ball in the air. He's doing that Isok Peretti's trick that maybe he can keep it going. But we don't have a track record of that for him, and it's a small sample right now. I'm not ready to say Connor Joe is a unicorn. after a seven-week sample of part-time bats at that. So in the long run, I'm not sure he'll be worth rostering, but in those deeper roto leagues, he is for now. I will point out with Connor Joe, that pull rate is up.

It's a career high 49.5%. So it looks like he's actively trying to pull fly balls, and that might be helping him. But as you mentioned, it is a smaller sample size for him so far this season. Two names that are right around 30% rostered. Sal Freelik and Andrew Vaughan. Sal Freelich had a big game, one for three with a sock and a shoe,

his first home run, his fifth stolen base of the season. The problem for him is that we thought he was going to take this step as a contact hitter, hitting for lots of line drives and batting average and kind of a Stephen Quant type, and Sal Freelich has not taken that step so far. Andrew Vaughan had a big game in game,

two of their double header. He went two for three with a double dong, four RBI. Even after this game, he is batting just 2.11 with a 600 OPS. I think it's a good game for two young players, Scott, but we need to see a lot more before we consider adding either one. Yeah, Freelick has been a disappointment for me so far. I may have dropped them in the Memorial Magazine League, which is 12th team Roto, five outfielder spots. I dropped them in a 15 team, five outfielder league. Oh, wow. You must have been in good shape. I do have some pretty good options. Vaughn. Let's talk about Vaughn for a second because a lot of the data for him seems pretty normal. The main thing that that sticks out to me why he entered the day with one home run and

now is up to only three. Paul rate is way down this year. It wasn't good to begin with, but it's down to 31% this year versus 39% last year. So he's just not optimized. His swing just isn't optimized for power. And maybe it never was. But it's been especially bad this year. And, you know, considering he's in the White Sox lineup, I'm not sure he's worth waiting around for. Just to add some context to that 15 team,

five outfielder league where I dropped South Freelick, my outfield is currently Josh Lowe, Sea, Suzuki, Lars Neupar, Andy Paez, Tommy Fam. I also have Brenton Doyle and Johnny DeLuca on the bench. So I feel pretty good about all those. I mean, I would have dropped some of those guys over Freelick myself, but fair enough. I know you hate Tommy Fam, Scott. You're never going to like him no matter what.

Yeah, Tommy Fam's one. He's a lot more useful than South Freelick right now. I mean, you obviously don't need him in your lineup. I don't know why you'd have such confidence in him long term. Yeah, so I have Doyle on the bench. I like to just play him whenever he's in course field. Johnny DeLuca, I just, I think it's a lottery ticket. I think he has more upside than, from what we've seen from South Carolina.

I feel like he might have more upside. I don't know. Yeah, no, I get that. Maybe I'll regret it. Who knows? A couple of their names in deeper leagues, Trey Lipscomb in game one of their double header went three for three with a walk and three stolen bases.

He is now up to 10 on the season. When Seal Perez continues to hit for the Detroit Tigers, he added two more hits today. He's batting over 300 with three homers, three steals, and 892 OPS. Nick Gonzalez hit his first home run since being recalled by the Pirates. He went one for three in that game. He has started four of the past five games.

He's got one homer and one steal so far. And Alec Berluson, Scott, someone I know that you have fancied for quite some time, went three for five with a sock and a shoe, his fourth home run, his first stolen base. He has started six of the past seven games. Very deep league stuff here. But any interest in Burleson, Nick Gonzalez, Wenziel Perez and Trey Lipscomb.

Yes, especially when Seal Perez. I'm kind of surprised he's only 25% rostered. I guess the playing time has been a bit sporadic, but his eligibility is kind of all over the place depending on what site you're on. Some places I've seen just outfield only, some places he seems to have second base as well, some he seems to have shortstop as well.

And there's an element of speed there. It's been hitting well so far. I have met a couple of 15 teamers where I needed help in the outfield. And then Berluson, I'm not ready to pick him up in those same leagues where I was picking up Wenssel Perez. But, you know, he still hits the ball very hard on average and he still doesn't strike out much. And if this is the breakout, it wouldn't be the most shocking thing to me. Let's see if the playing time continues. Let's see if the batting average continues to rise.

I think a big part of his profile is going to have to be batting average because I doubt he has like 30 homer upside. But with the 27% line drive rate, with Burleson doing that and striking out as little as he does, I think a high batting average is distinctly possible. His expected batting average is 80th percentile. Again, that is Alec Burleson. and I think there's a chance.

The Cardinals are desperate for offense, so if Burlinson could give them anything, then he is going to stick in the lineup. He's a name, let's just see where it goes, but in some of those deeper five outfielder leagues, he's someone you might want to add. That is Alec Berluson. Last chance.

What is it the last chance to do? It might be your last chance to buy low on Matt Olson, who went two for three with his fifth home run, added four RBI here on Tuesday, and it might be your last chance to sell high on Anthony Volpe, who is bouncing back. He went two for five with a double and an RBI

over his last seven games, a 344 batting average, two homers, eight RBI, one steal. The expected numbers for Volpe, not that that's everything. So, you know, I don't want to overvalue that. But the expected batting average and the expected slug,

they're not good. They're not good for Volpe. So if you are someone who believes in those numbers, this might be your last chance to sell high on him. Scott, what do you think about buying or selling either of those names? I mean, look, I would have said by low on Matt Olson all along. I still think he's going to perform like a second rounder at worst rest of the way.

What's crazy is his average exit velocity is actually higher this year than it was last year. Yeah. Yeah. And yeah, he looks like he's about to get going. I'm not even sure you could pull it off. I'm not sure. I'm not sure either, honestly. It's worth a try.

Volpe he's been kind of a tough one because there are some things I really like about him and there are some things I don't and I kind of get the hunch he's going to be a player who outperforms his expected stats but obviously I can't guarantee that there's not enough of a track record to say so I like that he walks a lot I like that he runs a lot

he hasn't been stealing bases lately but it's not like that's something that keeps at a steady pace over the course of the year I guess if I told you Anthony Volpe is going to perform like we were expecting Andres Jimenez to perform the rest of the way. Would you want to hold? Because that doesn't seem far-fetched.

I would. I would hold. And I think I am buying. For the most part, I am buying what Anthony Volpe has done so far the adjustments that he's made this season. he is the plate discipline is much improved. The zone contact has been great. Swinging strike rate is way down. He's hitting to all fields more.

He's hitting more ground balls, which again, that affects the power. But these are the things that I think you want to see from a speedy type leadoff hitter, which is what Anthony Volpe is right now. So for the most part, I am buying.

If you could sell high, I don't know, to the highest degree, like turn them into Boba Shed. I mean, that's like a trainer, right? Well, that's, yeah, that's as much a buy low as anything. Now, let me see where, so Volpe to this point in points leagues is seventh at shortstop.

That's great. So, I mean, if you could find a way to turn him into Francisco Lindor, obviously it would require giving up more than. But that, I think that's the right idea. Like, if you have Volpe and, I don't know, just an excess pitcher that's overperforming, like a Reese Olson or something. Like, I don't know, throw it out there. You could try. Yeah, I'm not sure. I'm not sure Reese Olson would get it done.

Probably not. But look, here's a great offer. Anthony Volpe and Jose Barrios for Francisco Lindor. I love it. Yeah, try it out. I think you could do that for Corey Seeger. You could try to buy low on Corey Seeger. You could, you know, to some extent, Boba Chet.

You know, maybe might still be able to get O'Neill Cruz because the overall numbers still don't look great yet, but obviously he's coming around too. So yeah, I would try on any of those things. But for the most part, I am, I think I am buying into what, what Anthony Volpe has been doing. Hey, real quick, let's run through some quick questions here, starting pitcher edition.

And Nick Povetta looked much better in his second start back from the IL. He was up against Tampa Bay, five and two-thirds innings, two runs, eight strikeouts to zero walks. What I noticed is that in two starts back, he's throwing his fastball a lot more. typically we want Nick Povetta to throw his breaking pitches. Is there a chance that he's not throwing the breaking pitches as much because he was dealing with an elbow injury?

This requires some kind of like galaxy brain thinking, Scott, but what do you think of my hypothesis here? Maybe, but what I've noticed is that he's basically ditched the cutter. He normally throws a 21% and he I didn't get an exact count, but he hardly threw it in this start. He went from 21% to he might as well not even have it. And if fastball, if more fastballs are taking the place of that cutter, that's probably a good thing because the batting average against on that cutter

for Nick Povetta is 438. So cut it out, get it out of here. If it means more fastball's great. I was encouraged by what I saw from Nick Povetta today. Hey, real quick, Chris Sale continues his great start to the season. He was up against the Cubs where he threw seven shutout innings, two hits, zero walks, nine strikeouts, had 15 swinging strikes in this one. Did notice the velocity was down around a mile, 1.4 miles per hour on all of his main pitches here.

But he has allowed a total of two earned runs over his last four starts combined. is Chris Sale back, Scott? This looks like the best version of Chris Sale since 2018. That's been a long time. Yeah, I mean, there were a lot of things to like about Chris Sale and the amount of time we saw him last year, but obviously the ERA ended up on the high side. I've been a Chris Sale believer for a long time

throughout all the injuries. And so I am quite pleased with what we're seeing, and I have nothing negative to point out, except, oh, maybe he gets hurt again. just because he's gotten hurt so much over the past four years. A wide variety of ailments, many of them not even being like standard baseball injuries, just really fluky things happening to Chris Sale, which is why I'm hopeful that he does stay healthy.

But it's not common for any pitcher to stay healthy. And so if Chris Sale falls into that, I think a lot of people are going to be regretting feeling like they should have known better, I guess. So that's the only negative thing I could say about sale. But overall, me personally, I'd just be happy to sit back and enjoy the ride. I'm treating him as a top 20 starting pitcher. Maybe he needs to be even treated as higher than that. Because with the Braves offense backing him, with him getting 11Ks per 9,

he looks like an ace. Yeah. And, you know, Braves locked him up for three years. If he can have three great years with him, he's probably back on a Hall of Fame trajectory. So I'm sure he's motivated to do that. I agree completely. And there are arguments, like you said,

for selling high while Chris Sale is healthy. But my pushback, and I'll say the same thing about Jared Jones, who might have an innings cap at some point this season, give me the bullets, the healthy bullets, these awesome pit starts while I can get them. While these guys are healthy, and if they go down, I'll figure it out when that happens. but the way these guys are pitching right now,

just take whatever you can get and continue to roll with them. I don't think I would be looking to sell on either of those guys, Chris Sale or Jared Jones. Especially since there seems to be such pitching surplus right now. And it's not a huge amount of pitchers that we have total confidence in. It's just ones that look really interesting, and we feel like they need to be on our roster. So if they were to go out, go down,

whether you're talking about Sale or Jared Jones or Tyra Jones or Tyler Glass now, I'd say the same thing about him. Yep. You'll probably have a way to make up for that loss. In the meantime, they're clearly setting your team apart at that position. They're totally bankable, high-end outcomes every time virtually. And, yeah, I think you just need to enjoy it. Hey, real quick, Hunter Green, seven innings, two runs, five strikeouts at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The velocity was back up to normal after his previous start when the velocity was down. And all of a sudden, Hunter Green has a 327 ERA, a 118 whip. He's doing a much better job in limiting hard contact this season. Scott, is this the best version

of Hunter Green that we have seen yet? Yeah, I think so. I'm not convinced that he's going to sustain it. Because what is he doing differently? He is throwing his fastball and his slider the same amount as

last year. That third pitch that was, was hyped up this spring, hasn't really manifested. The shape of the fastball and slider is basically the same as last year. Well, you know what? That's not true. He is getting better movement on both of those pitches. I don't know.

Maybe there's something to that. But I would be a little fearful of regression from Green, just given his history. Hey, real quick, and I think we can make this one really quick. Jack Leiter, his career is off to an awful start. He's made three starts in the majors. He's got a 1639 ERA, a 257 whip. Would you be looking to buy low in Dynasty on Jack Leiter? Probably not.

Probably not. I didn't have him as a top 100 prospect coming in. His minor league career has mostly been bad. And I just think, I think the odds are against him coming through as a difference maker and fantasy. And most dynasty leagues aren't as deep as the ones we play in. And there's a good chance Jack Lighter's just on waivers in them. Let's get into the leftovers,

and we will run through three pitchers here. Carlos Rodon has a quality start in four of his past five outings. This one at the Minnesota Twins, six innings, one run, six strikeouts, 14 swinging strikes on 102 pitches. He did allow a lot of hard contact. in this start, but over Rodon's last five outings, it's a 307 ERA, a 0.92 whip, 31 strikeouts to just three walks. The control has really improved for Rodon during the stretch.

Logan Gilbert turned in a quality start, but wasn't his best, six and two thirds, three runs allowed, three walks, seven strikeouts, still had 18 swinging strikes in that one. The control has gone the opposite way for Logan Gilbert. He has three plus walks in three of his last five. And Sunny Gray, two rough outings in a row. He was at the Angels, six innings, five runs, still had nine strikeouts with 16 swinging strikes, anything to add on. Sunny Gray, Logan Gilbert, and Carlos Rodon.

Yeah, Rodon looks great. The slider has been effective for a long stretch now, enough that he's actually getting a better whiff rate on it than he got during his ace years in 2021 and 2022. So I don't think he's an ace now, but I think he's. a number four for your fantasy team in all likelihood. So I feel good about where Carlos Redon's going. Logan Gilbert was obviously pitching over his head to start the year, but he's good.

He's just not, I don't think he's going to continue being ace level for you. Sunny Gray, same thing. I can say the same thing about him. Certain amount of regression was inevitable for those. to Gilbert and Gray, and I think you just have to, you have to be cognizant of that. But I'm not seeing any like red flags here that would suggest that their poor performances recently are going to be a long-term issue. Some hitting leftovers, Josh Lowe hit his first home run of the season. He went

two for four with a walk and that homer. He is eight for 25 early on. That's a 320 batting average. John Carlos Stanton has three home runs in his past six games. He went two for five with his ninth home run on the season. Alex Bregman starting to get going two days in a row. Two for four with his fourth home run. He has three homers in the past two games. Josh Naylor won for three with a sock and a shoe. His 12th home run, his third steal of the year.

And Chohei Otani had a big game three for five with his 12th home run of the season. Some bullpen updates for the Nationals in game one of their double header. Kyle Finnegan allowed two hits but struck out one for his 13th save. For the Tigers, Jason Foley pitched a scoreless ninth with the game tied. Alex Lang allowed a hit and an unearned run in the 10th. He took his third loss of the season. For the Marlins, Tanner Scott pitched a scoreless ninth with the game tied. He struck out two.

It was AJ Puck who got the bottom of the 10th. With a one-run lead, he converted his first save of the season. And I want to be very clear, not that people see this and start thinking, whoa, AJ Puck is the closer now again. Tanner Scott had pitched a ninth, and he's still on the team. So as long as Tanner Scott is there and pitching relatively well,

I do think he's going to remain the closer. So just keep that in mind. For the Brewers, Trevor McGill got the ninth with a two-run lead. He gave up a solo homer, but struck out two for his fifth save. He remains just 40% rostered. That number still feels like it needs to be higher

for Trevor McGill. For the Guardians, Emmanuel Class A walked one but picked up his 12th save. For the A's, Mason Miller tossed two scoreless innings across the 8th and 9th. He struck out five. He's so ridiculous. I love you, Mason Miller. For the Astros, Josh Hayter threw two scoreless across the 9th and 10th.

He struck out three and picked up his second win. For the Cardinals, Ryan Helsley struck out two for his 13th save. For the Rockies, with Jalen Beaks unavailable, Tyler Kinley pitched a clean ninth for his first save. And for the Royals, James MacArthur recorded the final four outs. He gave up one run. He struck out three for his 10th save of this season. I'm a little worried about James McArthur, though, that that was, he's now allowed a run in at least a run in four of his last five appearances, which is not a trend you want to set as a closer.

It hasn't cost the Royals games, at least not many games. So I'm not sure the alarm has been raised yet, but he's not like a conventional closer who approaches triple digits with his fastball. And now he's struggling to keep runs off the board. In those deep leagues where saves are scarce, it might be worth putting in a preliminary, preemptive pickup for his setup man, whose name I'm forgetting. John Schreiber. There it is. I was thinking Schneider, but no, it's Schreiber. John Schreiber, yes. So far this season, Schreiber has a 0.90 ERA and a 105 whip,

less than a strikeout or ending, but he has pitched pretty well so far with the Royals. To stream or not to stream on Wednesday, and I believe yesterday we said, Casey Meyes against the Marlins, Robert Gasser against the pirates, Brandon fought against the Reds, Todge Bradley is pitching, but he's at the Red Sox.

I like Alec Marsh more than fought. Okay. He's at Seattle. Yeah, I don't love any of them, though. Wednesday's not a good day for streaming. Cole Irvin against the Blue Jays. It's in Camden. That could work.

It could. Yeah. And then on Thursday, we do have a shorter slate. And don't think I want to use any of these. If I had to choose one, I guess Clark Schmidt. at the twins, but... Blah. Oof. Yeah.

Light slate. I might say Cooper Criswell against the Rays Thursday. If you're forcing me to pick one, which is what you'd like to do in this segment. All right.

We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye. You know,