Fantasy Baseball Today - Abbott's Ascension, Bryce Harper Power Outage & Weekend Waiver Wire (7/3 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 3, 2023

Andrew Abbott continues to rack up the whiffs (2:14)! ... Luis Severino is doing the opposite (9:00). ... Bryce Harper isn't hitting for much power this season (12:22). ... Tommy Pham or Andrew McCut...chen (15:04)? Ezequiel Tovar or Maikel Garcia? ... Rank Kyle Bradish, Josiah Gray, Michael Soroka and Jack Flaherty (25:05). ... James Paxton, Bailey Ober and Reid Detmers are on the rise (33:00)! ... News (38:05): Shane McClanahan was placed on the IL. ... Which players stood out most in June (50:30)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (54:25). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hey there. Welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today, and welcome to July.
Starting point is 00:00:31 Frank Stample joined by Chris Towers today on the show. Weekend, Waver-Wire Decisions, Pitchers on the rise, Bryce Harper's power outage, getting lots of questions about that, the June leaders, and much more. Before we get started, please like this video and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. And if you're listening on the audio side, download, follow, and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. Last week, I nearly blew my voice out, right?
Starting point is 00:00:59 Doing karaoke, going out to a concert. So what happens this weekend? We do karaoke again, except this time we were celebrating Chris's almost birthday. and it was tons of fun. What's going on, Chris? Yeah, it was a lovely moment. Frank Stamphle and our friend Nick Pollock from Pitcher List, duetting on a whole new world. It was really a magical, a magic carpet ride of emotions, I would say. I didn't know what I was getting myself into there. I knew it was a Disney song. I didn't realize Nick wanted me to sing the- You did well. You did well.
Starting point is 00:01:33 The Jasmine part of that. You were a great Jasmine. It was a lot of fun, though. I have my voice, which is obviously the good thing. Reminder that Scott is out this week. Much needed vacation for him. We'll get him back somewhere in the middle of All-Star Break Week, and I'll have some updates later on this week just in terms of the programming that we're going to be doing.
Starting point is 00:01:53 Throughout the All-Star break, we're going to be doing some fun, different things. Obviously, there's not any games going on. So we'll get creative, do some crazy things. But alas, let's jump in. Holy Toledo. The element of surprise, Brains Supreme. Holy Toledo, Chris.
Starting point is 00:02:11 You are up. Who would you like to highlight? Yeah, it's got to be Andrew Abbott, who, it's been a fun ride for the fantasy community with him. He puts up these massive numbers in AA, very good in AAA, gets the call. And then it's kind of underwhelming in his first three starts, and everyone's just kind of like,
Starting point is 00:02:30 I don't know if this guy's any good. Well, 12 strikeouts, one walk against the Padres on Sunday. He now has 30, 30 strikeouts to four walks over his past three starts. It's been a remarkable turnaround. It's funny. He didn't allow a single run in any of his first three starts. He's allowed at least one in three straight and we're much bigger fans of the way he's pitching. And that's all to say that results sometimes don't matter as much as the process by which you get there.
Starting point is 00:03:01 And also just a reminder, something that I've tried to remind myself of multiple times over the past, you know, a couple of weeks especially is when we talk about young players, we should take care to not talk about them as if they are finished products or as if they are concrete things. You know, when we say like Andrew Abbott after his first starts, well, he's not getting strikeouts and his walks are high and he's giving up a lot of fly balls and he just doesn't look very good. And it's like, but he's not a finished product. And he can make steps and take steps and make improvements. and that's exactly what he's done.
Starting point is 00:03:38 His change-up, I think, today had nine swinging strikes. He had a bunch of swings. Sorry, I'm trying to pull up the exact numbers. I wrote about it earlier. Eight on the change-up today. Eight on the change-up today. Three on the sweeper. Six on the curveball.
Starting point is 00:03:55 Eight on the four-seam fastball. That all looks really, really good. And it's the first time, really, where he's had like an elite, elite swinging strike game, where, like, everything came together. you know, the overall swing strike numbers on the pitches still aren't super impressive, but, you know, I think given the way he's pitched the last three starts, Andrew Abbott clearly looks like a must roster, no question,
Starting point is 00:04:21 but probably I must start pitcher moving forward. There are things to be concerned about. He has a 20% fly ball or ground ball rate, which is, I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher have a 20% ground ball rate even after six starts. I mean, that's a shockingly low number. And given that he plays half his games in the Great American Ballpark, which has made it tough for Nick Ladolo and Hunter Green to live up to expectations, I do think there are going to be some,
Starting point is 00:04:49 there's going to be regression coming for Andrew Abbott. But with the way he's missing bats over the past three starts, I think you've got to be excited about the potential. And if he qualified, you mentioned that ground ball rate, he would have the lowest in all of baseball. J.P. Sears currently has that, him on qualifiers, 25% ground ball rate for him. So I want to be very clear.
Starting point is 00:05:11 First and foremost, Andrew Abbott has been amazing. I just want to get out ahead of that. I know every time he has an amazing start, oh, what are you guys going to say about Andrew Abbott? Look, his first three starts, he did succeed, but he kind of did it in a fluky way where he wasn't getting whiffs and he was pitching more to contact. And in the long haul, if you do that as a flyball pitcher
Starting point is 00:05:32 in Great American Ballpark, it's not going to end well. but we have to highlight he's changed. He's gotten better. He's getting more whiffs. He has 12 or more swinging strikes in each of his past three starts culminated by the start this weekend with 25 swinging strikes.
Starting point is 00:05:48 That is an elite level performance from Andrew Abbott. So yes, we were hard on him early on, but he's doing things differently now and he's gotten better over his past three starts. And I think that's fair to expect, right? As you mentioned, Chris, he's not a finished product,
Starting point is 00:06:02 and he's young enough where I would continue him, I would expect him to continue getting better. Obviously, it's not linear, but I, you know, just on the rise. Just to put some context on the 20% ground ball rate, there have been over the past 20 seasons. So going back to 2004, there have been 12 instances of a pitcher qualifying for the ERA title with a ground ball rate below 30%. 12 out of 14702 qualifiers. And that's a 30% ground ball rate. There have been some success stories. Justin Verlander in 2018 had a 29% ground ball rate, 252 ERA. That's pretty good. Chris Young had several very good seasons while being an extreme ground or fly ball pitcher. That was a bit of a different situation because he was pitching in San Diego in 2006 and 2007 and then Seattle in 2014. Different offensive environments, very, very different home ballpark.
Starting point is 00:07:05 parks than Andrew Abbott's. Those are Peco Park in the 2000s was one of the toughest playlists to hit homers, you know, ever in Major League Baseball. So there are reasons to think that there's going to be some regression here for Andrew Abbott, but that's not really like, I don't really know what you do with that information. I, if you can trade him for a top 30 pitcher, I think you do that. You know, if I could get.
Starting point is 00:07:32 Tyler Glass now. Tyler Glass now, Logan Gilbert. There was another guy I was thinking of earlier, but those kind of pitchers, guys who I think we have high expectations, high ceilings. Christian Javier was the other one. None of those guys are guarantees to be better than Andrew Abbott moving forward
Starting point is 00:07:52 for various reasons, but they all have their own red flags, but are more established with similar upside. So I would do that, but I think at this point it's got to be like a top 30 pitch. That's what we should be expecting if you're trying to trade Andrew Abbott away or sell high on him, which by no means you don't have to do. I have a segment set up later on where we'll talk about pitchers that are on the rise.
Starting point is 00:08:16 Andrew Abbott was one of them. And I think Yuri Perez has, even after a bad start this weekend, kind of separated himself as probably the most, I don't want to say, reliable, but one of the best rookie pitchers this season. I think him and Hunter Brown are kind of like in their own tier right now. And then I'm thinking about it out loud. I think Bobby Miller, Tanner Bybee, and I think putting Andrew Abbott in that mix,
Starting point is 00:08:42 I think he's kind of earned that. Yeah, like, yeah, Bobby Miller has had his own blowups. Tanner Bybee has had his own struggles lately as well. So, you know, I think Andrew Abbott's right there with that group. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:08:54 All right. Oh my goodness gracious for me is, I'm going to go the other way. I'm going to go with a disappointing performance from Luis Severino, who, What do we do with this guy right now? He gave up seven earned runs.
Starting point is 00:09:08 Nine runs total, seven of those earned over four innings pitched at the St. Louis Cardinals. He gave up two more homers, seven hard hits in this game, velocity down across the board. His fastball was down 1.3 miles per hour. The changeup was down 2.1 miles per hour in the start for Luis Severino. And basically, the slider has had nothing this season. Slider and cutter both, yeah. Yeah, the whiff rate on the changeup is also way down this year.
Starting point is 00:09:33 And now we're looking at a 6.30 ERA, a 165 whip 7.7K per 9 for Luis Severino. He has the track record. It wouldn't surprise me if, again, flip the switch and things just kind of, he figures it out. But there is just absolutely no way that you could start him right now. He's going up against the Baltimore Orioles this week. You got to bench Luis Severino for the time being and hope that he figures something out. And I think that's in Yankee Stadium too. So that makes it even harder to do. Yeah, until he shows anything with the slider and cutter, I don't think you can trust him. I mean, even his most recent start before this one was very good. I think it was six shutout innings.
Starting point is 00:10:13 Yeah, six shut outings, four strikeouts, two walks. I think he had four swinging strikes in that one, none on the slider and cutter. That means two starts in a row, I believe. He has not gotten a whiff on his slider or cutter. Last season, those two pitches both had a 40% whiff rate. they were elite swing and miss pitches. They're just non-existent right now. And I think he only threw them like 14% of the time in this one as well.
Starting point is 00:10:38 So it's just there's nothing there. And until he figures that out, yeah, you can't trust him. I couldn't, I don't think I could bring myself to drop him. But this is one of those cases where I can't give you a reason not to, except that it's Luis Severino. If it was a different name, I'd be obviously dropping him. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:56 So he's still 85% rostered. that was the next question. Maybe in a really shallow 10-team league, if I don't, he's the worst pitcher on your team and you really want to pick up like a Terek scubel. Yeah, I might. Yeah, that was the one I was thinking of Terec Scuba.
Starting point is 00:11:11 And even like, Redetmers, I think is available in like 17% of CBS fantasy leagues. I think I'd rather have Redembers than Luis Severino. But, you know, like I'm not, I'm probably not dropping him for Kyle Braddish,
Starting point is 00:11:26 who I think pitches at Yankee Stadium this week. week. I like Kyle Bradish at home and basically nowhere else. Josiah Gray, maybe he's doing some interesting things, but certainly I don't think has the upside of Louis Severino if he figures it out. So given that the All-Star break is coming up, we have one week and then we get, you know, that half week. Things aren't so dire that you need someone probably. So I would still try to hang on to Louis Severino. All right. Oh, my goodness gracious. The team that scored the most runs in a game this weekend, the Phillies, they scored 19 runs on 18 hits on Saturday and highlighting a few performances in that game.
Starting point is 00:12:03 Alec Bohm went 4 for 5 with a double dong. He is now up to nine home runs on the season. Kyle Schwerver went 2 for 5 with his 22nd home run. He's played better since the start of June. Nick Castiano's continues his fine year three for four with his 11th homer on Saturday and then came back and hit his 12th home run on Sunday. But the name I want to highlight here, Chris, is Bryce Harper. Two for five with two runs and two RBI on Saturday in that game.
Starting point is 00:12:28 And we've been receiving questions about Harper's lack of power. He's still batting 286. He's got five steals. So he has provided value across the board. He only has three home runs so far. The ISO is a career low at 106. He's hitting more ground balls than ever before. And his average takes a velocity 90.7.
Starting point is 00:12:47 That's good, but it's not Bryce Harper good. With all that being said, this dude came back from a major elbow injury, much faster than we thought he was going to be. So I think this is just one of those situations, Chris, where people want us to acknowledge that Bryce Harper is struggling to hit for power, but there's not really anything actionable or anything that we can tell you outside of the fact that he's Bryce Harper and hopefully he starts to hit for power. But everything else looks really good so far for him. Yeah, I really don't have. I mean, it's worth keeping in mind back in March when we were previewing the season. if you had told us Bryce Harper would be on a rehab assignment right now, we'd probably be like,
Starting point is 00:13:29 okay, yeah, that seems like a pretty good outcome. Instead, he's 226 plate appearances into his season. So you've got to keep that context of mind. He's not hitting the ball in the air as much. He's not pulling the ball as much. He's hitting the ball more to the opposite field than usual. That's going to lead both of those to less power than you're expecting.
Starting point is 00:13:49 But I tend to think moving forward he's going to figure it out and be perfectly fine. And I would be looking to buy it, obviously, if that's possible. I know he's utility only as of now. There was a report over the weekend that he could start to play some first base as soon as this week, even before the All Star break. So some good news there for Bryce Harper. Looking at projection systems on Fangraphs, all of them still have him for between 11 and 14 home runs the rest of the way. So that's pretty valuable over a two and a half month stretch. So again, if you could buy on Bryce Harper, it's something I would look into doing. A few quick
Starting point is 00:14:23 heads ups, heads up, heads ups. I don't, that doesn't sound like English. Heads, heads are up. We have new YouTube thumbnails. So if you see our videos and trying to figure out, whoa, what's going on? Is this the right thing? Yes, we have some new YouTube thumbnails with our faces on them. So you should enjoy. And yeah, so just if you see a new picture, that's basically what we're working with on YouTube. And we will be live on Tuesday night on July 4th going into July 5th by the time we started to hurry July 5th. But in case you are around and you want to hang out, please have fun, but be careful on July 4th. Some waiver wire hitters. Let's run through some of these names and the outfielders that stood out
Starting point is 00:15:07 from this weekend. Andrew McCutcheon went three for five with his 10th home run on I want to say that was Friday. The expected number is very good for McCutcheon this year. He's just flying under the radar nearly on pace for a 2020 season. Tommy Pham went three for four. with his ninth home run on Friday and then went three for four on Sunday as well. He is Scott's number two sleeper hitter this week. Andrew Benintendi went two for four with two RBI on Friday. And since being moved to the leadoff spot, that is 15 games. He's batting 350 with seven doubles and a stolen base.
Starting point is 00:15:41 No power. Zero homers during that time. And the other name is Jaron who went five for five with four doubles and three runs scored on Sunday. He's still batting over 300. He's got 15 seals. The problem, he's, he's not playing as much as he was earlier on in the season. Chris, how would you rank this group?
Starting point is 00:15:59 McCutcheon, Tommy Fam, Ben Intendi, and Jaron Duran. Yeah, I think Duran, I saw it was something like he started 16 of 24 games in the month of June or something. He's hit really well, but they're pretty much treating him like a platoon part-time player. And there's only so much value you can get out of that. I wish it was more. But other than that, I think, I guess McCutcheon and, and, Fam are probably the top ones of this list. I added Ben Intendi in TGFBI because it was a 15 team league.
Starting point is 00:16:29 I didn't really need outfield help, but it's like he should be rostered in a 15 team league. So I'll spend $11 head of a $1,000 budget on that. But I don't think any of these guys has particularly high upside. I think Tommy Fam is probably the one who has the most upside just because I noticed today he's fifth in average exit velocity in the majors, which is incredible. And there was something with a new type of contact lens that he's been wearing that maybe it is helping him. I'm not sure if I believe that that's fully to explain why he's been good, but he's been hot for a while now.
Starting point is 00:17:08 Yeah, I think I would put Tommy Fam at the top of this list, followed by Andrew McCutcheon. McCutcheon, more of a floor play at this point. But honestly, he's good regardless of format. As I mentioned, on pace for nearly 2020. and he's walking a ton, which helps in points leagues as well for McCutcheon, and then I'll round it out. I think in a Categories league, it's fine to go with Jaron Duran, but in a points league, deeper points league, whatever,
Starting point is 00:17:31 probably would lead with Andrew Benintendi. Two corner infielders from this weekend, Carlos Santana went three for five with his ninth home run on Friday. Chris, did you have a chance to watch Carlos Santana's dance before he got to home plate on that walkoff homer? Because it was amazing. I have not. And, you know, obviously if you search Carlos Santana dance, you always, you know, there's not a lot of, you know, are you going to get the musician or the baseball player? You get the musician. So I didn't see that one yet. I'm watching it now. It's, yeah. It's pretty impressive. Is he hitting the gritty? No, it was kind of, okay. Yeah, that's fun. Oh, oh, he came. Okay. Okay. I thought he was just doing like a little jazz chisholm like, you know, Eurostep thing. And then it molars into like a full on dance. That was fun. That was, that was, that was.
Starting point is 00:18:18 neat. Yeah. Yeah, no, that was great stuff. Crazy moment, too. I mean, I think it was two outs in the ninth inning, down by a run, runner on base, and he hits a two-run walk-off to win the game. Final batter of the game is this does not get more. I think you got to the river too. Yeah, does not get much more clutch than that for Carl Santana. The other name is Spencer Torkelson. He went two for three with his 12th homer on Sunday. He has four homers over his past five games. He's 55% rostered. And the Tigers have the fifth best header matchups this week, according to Scott. Chris, if you have to choose between one of these, you know, it might be like a 12 team roto league with a corner infield spot, uh, but Santana versus Torkelson.
Starting point is 00:18:59 I am pretty much trying to add Torkelson wherever he's available this week. He's gotten hot, had the two homer game on Thursday. I believe it was. And it's been a weird thing for him, really including last season where he's really underperformed his expected stats. last season has expected stats were pretty rotten anyway, so we didn't care. But, you know, this season has actual Wobus 303, has expected Wobus 339. That's solidly above average, you know, 257XBA, 446X slug. So I wonder what it is in his profile that's making him underperform or if it's just some bad luck. You know, he hits the, he hits a lot of balls to the pull side, which is easier to
Starting point is 00:19:45 defend, especially for a guy who's not necessarily particularly fleet of foot. But I think there's probably just some bad luck explaining this as well. So I think he's, uh, you know, hot right now, obviously and I think has a chance to, to have a pretty big second half. Yeah, I've talked about Torkelson a lot this year too. It feels like he's close. It's earlier on in the year. He was hitting for more contact.
Starting point is 00:20:10 In June, he hit for a bunch of power, but I think it was below 200 batting average. If we could just get everything working together, I think we could see a big second half there for Spencer Torkelson. Two middle infielders from the weekend, Ezekiel Tovar went two for four with his eighth home run on Friday, and I meant to write in, meant to add this. But since the start of May, he has eight homers and four steals, and I think he's batting something like 300 or close to it during that time.
Starting point is 00:20:37 So Tovar, outside of a bad April, has really turned it on since the beginning of May. Yeah, Tovar is not. numbers since May 1st, if you just give it 162 game pace, 295 average, 93 runs, 25 homers, 100 RBI, 12 stolen bases. That's what we were hoping for. That's a really good player. Yeah. So that's, that's, you know, very home heavy. You know, I think there's like a 200 point OPS difference between home and road for him. But overall, you know, I think he's been a lot better than we've given him credit for. And it was also a big weekend for Mike Lauerstein. who I have mentioned a lot recently.
Starting point is 00:21:16 He had nine hits, two RBI, two steals. He went four for four on Sunday. He's now batting 292 on the season. He is 31% rostered. He has third base and shortstop eligibility. Chris, who would rather have Zechal Tovar or Michael Garcia? Oh, Tovar for sure. The only thing with Garcia is just if you need speed.
Starting point is 00:21:35 You know, he's got a lot of it. 42 stolen bases and 142 games over the past, or between double A and AAA in his minor league career. And, you know, I think his guy's got. like a 279 expected batting average since making the major. So the 2.92 actual average he has doesn't seem that far-fetched. I just, I don't think you're going to get much else except a pretty good batting average and a lot of steals. All right. A few names in deeper leagues. Anything to see here. Andy Abagnas went two for four with his sixth home run on Friday and actually
Starting point is 00:22:07 hits the ball harder than you think for a middle infielder utility type. The expected numbers are pretty good for Andy Abagnas as well. Drew Waters is on a tear right now. His last 10 games, 389 batting average with two homers and three steals. Nick Gonzalez went two for four with his second home run of the season. I think that was on Saturday. 414 feet to straightaway center field. Pretty impressive for Gonzalez.
Starting point is 00:22:31 Brandon Belt, two for four with a double dong on Sunday. Matt Veerling is hitting very well since returning from the IL. And yes, those are all the names. So Veerling, Belt, Nick Gonzalez, Drew Waters, Andy Abanias. Chris, anything to see here in, you know, those 15 team leagues. Yeah, Bell has like Tovar, very, very bad April, but has hit pretty well since then. The problem is he just does not play every day or anything close to it. And so there's only so good he can be, but, you know, the two homer Sunday, that was a good sign.
Starting point is 00:23:05 I think he has some value in a in a daily lineup's league, but that's probably about it. Drew Waters, I was trying to add in a few of those 15 team. five outfielder leagues. He hits the ball really hard. He's got some power and speed. He strikes out a lot. So that's likely going to limit the batting average there for Drew Waters. And I also added Nick Gonzalez in a few of these deeper leagues. I know he hasn't lived up to expectations. He was a first round pick a couple of years ago. He still does come with a lot of prospect pedigree. And he's playing every day. So that's kind of half the battle in leagues that deep. I want to see what Nick Gonzalez can do moving forward. And I just wanted to quickly mention, there's not a
Starting point is 00:23:43 a much worse feeling than this, Chris. Missing out on a player in Fab by $1. Especially in a $1,000 Fab League. What are the chances? I had a $47 bid in on Jordan Westberg in my 15-team NFBC main event league. He went for 48. That's rough.
Starting point is 00:24:03 So rough. I am very upset trying to keep it together. Let's take our first break. And when we return, we'll talk about some WaverWire pitchers here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back to Fantasy Baseball today and a quick reminder to sign up for our newsletter. It is absolutely free.
Starting point is 00:24:19 You could go to CBSports.com slash newsletters. You punch in your email address. You click on the FBT logo and you click subscribe. It's as easy as that. Get delivered to your inbox every day. Chris, I know that you're working on it for this weekend. What are some of the things people can expect to see in the newsletter? Yeah, I do the Monday and Friday edition.
Starting point is 00:24:39 So tomorrow you'll have my thoughts on all the, top WaverWire starting pitchers, the biggest performances of the weekend, stuff like that. So big weekend recap and then on Friday, I do a big weekend preview. So yeah, good stuff. Good stuff. Indeed, if you're watching us live on YouTube, you can scan the QR code again. That will take you right to the website where you can sign up for the FBT newsletter for free. The waiver wire pitchers from the weekend. Let's start with the first group, which includes Kyle Bradish, who has allowed to earn runs or fewer in four straight games. Pitching very well right now. Josiah Gray had a great start at the Phillies this weekend, six innings of one run ball with eight strikeouts and 20 swinging
Starting point is 00:25:23 strikes on 99 pitches. Michael Soroka had a successful return to the Braves rotation, a quality start up against the Marlins, six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts and 13 swinging strikes for him. And Jack Flaherty, we talk about a lot as he's up and down. I know we mentioned him like you could drop him a couple weeks ago. Few things in this start. He threw six shutout against the Yankees and his velocity was up 1.6 miles per hour on the slider
Starting point is 00:25:52 and 1.2 miles per hour on the curveball. So I don't think that this is a big priority but it's something to watch moving forward. If that velocity stays up for Jack Flarity he might be able to get to another level that we haven't really seen this season. Chris, how would you rank this group? Kyle Bradish,
Starting point is 00:26:07 Josiah Gray, Michael Soroka and Jack Flaredy. I think I would go gray, Bradish, Flaherty, Seroca, but Bradish is, he's interesting, kind of, in that I think he's just a good pitcher at home. That's a really big ballpark in Baltimore now. Obviously, we know the impact that's had on offense there. And I think since the start of May, he has had a quality start in every home. start that he's had. He's been really,
Starting point is 00:26:43 really good at home. So it's the kind of thing where I think against bad matchups on the road, you don't touch him. But whenever he's at home, I think you probably just start him. And against, you know, easier matchups on the road, I think he's fine.
Starting point is 00:26:59 And, you know, Jack Flaherty was, was that at home the Jack Flaherty start? That was in St. Louis? Yep. But it was against a Yankees lineup where the only, The only player with an OPS over 800 in the Yankees lineup against Jack Flaherty was someone named Billy McKinney. The Yankees are a pretty good matchup right now for pitchers.
Starting point is 00:27:23 So I wouldn't be surprised if Kyle Braddish struggled at Yankee Stadium. That's about as far as you can get from Baltimore, not geographically, but in terms of, you know, home run prevention. But I think he's an okay start this week. All right. And with Josiah Gray just wanted to point out with him, he threw six different pitches between 7% and 25% in this start. And I read recently that Josiah Gray referred to U. Darvish's ability to throw all these different kind of pitches.
Starting point is 00:27:52 And it seems like he's kind of motivated by that right now and he's trying to do something similar. And his past, I think it's two starts that they've looked pretty good for Josiah Gray. So a name to watch, he's going up against the Reds this week. That Reds lineup is obviously on fire. So maybe you don't trust. the matchup, but not a bad pitcher to just hold on to and play in the right spots. Waverwire pitchers, part two.
Starting point is 00:28:15 Aaron Savali has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of six starts since returning from the IL. He was at the Cubs on Sunday, six innings of one run ball with two strikeouts and 13 swinging strikes. Seth Lugo had a strong start at the Reds, six innings, one unearned run with six strikeouts to zero walks. Brady Singer has allowed two earn runs or fewer in five of his past seven starts. I know. This is kind of gross.
Starting point is 00:28:41 His ERA is well over five, but if you look at his last seven starts, Brady Singer has a 312 ERA and a 1.30 whip for whatever it's worth. And Graham Ashcraft turned in his first quality start since May 2nd. He was facing the Padres this weekend. Six and two thirds, one run aloud, seven strikeouts. But what really set out, 18 swinging strikes for Graham Ashcraft. Chris, these are slightly deeper league options. Ashcraft, Brady Singer, Seth Lugo, Aaron Savali, anything to see with this group.
Starting point is 00:29:13 Yeah, uh, no. Lugo is by far the most interesting of this group. He's got a 353 FIP for the season with the 359 ERA. Uh, he's got a matchup against the Angels this week. And I think this is all a group of pitchers that you worry most about the next the next game. And the matchup against the Angels, it's not a good one. I wouldn't love using him, but if I had to, it's not terrible.
Starting point is 00:29:42 But yeah, I'm not particularly interested in any of this group. I do want to go back to Josiah Gray for one second because I didn't have a note on him. He introduced a sweeper on June 9th and has been throwing his sinker more in that span. He has a 381 ERA, 31 strikeouts, and 28 innings of work. I believe that's over five starts. It's not overwhelmingly dominant, but it reminds me of Mitch Keller last year. where you saw him make all these adjustments. He wasn't refined.
Starting point is 00:30:10 He hadn't figured it all out. But like all of a sudden, he's at least limiting hard contact. And he's getting some strikeouts and he's limiting walks. And the overall package isn't elite by any means. But Josiah Gray had his best whiff rate of the season overall in the month of June and his lowest average exit velocity allowed in the month of June. So certainly some improvements there. I would prioritize him over anyone in this group for. for sure part two.
Starting point is 00:30:39 But among this group, Seth Lugo is the only one. I really have any interest in. Yeah, I think Seth Lugo needs to be rostered in at least all points leagues because he is SPARP eligible. So 45% rostered.
Starting point is 00:30:49 I would have to imagine there's a few more points leagues out there where Seth Lugo is available. So go out and check to make sure that he is not available in your points league. And Aaron Savali, if you're just playing the matchups, he's facing the Royals this week, who are 25th in Wobah against right-handed pitching.
Starting point is 00:31:05 Three names in Deeper League. Christopher Sanchez has pitched well for the Phillies. He threw six innings of two-run ball with six strikeouts and 15 swinging strikes this weekend. Cutter Crawford pitched well at the Blue Jays, five and two-thirds innings, two runs, five strikeouts, and 14 swinging strikes for him. And Ryan Nelson has tossed back-to-back seven-inning quality starts.
Starting point is 00:31:29 He was at the Angels this weekend, seven and a third, one run, six strikeouts there. Chris, anything on this group in deeper leagues. league's Ryan Nelson, Cutter Crawford, Christopher Sanchez. I think I like Sanchez better than anyone from the previous group except for Seth Lugo. I'm not 100% sure why he's been better so far. I mean, it's only four starts.
Starting point is 00:31:50 So it might just be it's four starts. But, you know, obviously he's throwing a similar three pitch mix as he did last season, funny enough, with less velocity than he did a year ago. However, the one thing that did jump out to me when I was researching him is there has been an increase in the separation between his fastball and change up velocity. Last year was 8.6 miles an hour. This year, even though he's throwing his fastball one mile per hour lower than he did last year, the difference between that and his change up is 10.2 miles per hour.
Starting point is 00:32:20 He's gotten to a 46.9% whiff rate with the change up. You know, the peripherals, pretty good so far. So if he can be an average to slightly above average strikeout guy, I think Christopher Sanchez is pretty interesting. Yeah, I think he's interesting. well. He's 4% rostered. He has SPARP eligibility. If you do play in a points league as well. The problem with the matchup is that he's at Tampa Bay, who they've slowed down a little bit recently, but still, you know, one of the most scary, scariest offense.
Starting point is 00:32:50 And that's at Tampa Bay. They're crushing it at home too, especially. So might be a name that you pick up in a deeper league, Christopher Sanchez, but I don't think you're going to want to roll him out there with that matchup this week. A few other pitchers that are on the rise. We spoke about Andrew Abbott earlier and how great he's been. The same could be said for these next three pitchers. James Paxton, he walked into Toronto, and he did big maple things. He was awesome. Seven and two-thirds shutout with seven strikeouts and 15 swinging strikes in that matchup.
Starting point is 00:33:19 Bailey Ober had a great start at the Orioles. Seven shutout innings, only two hits allowed with eight strikeouts. He lowers his ERA to 2.7 with a .95 whip. Ober has been awesome for the twins. And the same thing could be said for Reed Detmer's. He has eight plus strikeouts in five. straight starts going up against the Diamondbacks this weekend, six innings, two runs, nine strikeouts with 17 swinging strikes, and a similar trend to what we saw recently.
Starting point is 00:33:46 That slider velocity remains down, but I think it's a good thing for Redemption. I think it allows him to execute the pitch better, and that's why we're seeing better results here. Chris, how high can you see these names maybe climbing in your rankings? Because Detmer's, Ober James Paxson, they've all been fantastic when on the mound this year. Well, not as much Demers. It's more recently. Yeah. Paxton's an impossible player to rank, I feel like, because I feel pretty good that he's
Starting point is 00:34:16 going to be like a top 30-ish starting pitcher moving forward. Like, if you just ask me their next start, who do I think will be better? Let's say they have the same matchup. One goes against the 15th best offense. One goes against the 16th best offense. James Paxton or Logan Gilbert, who I still have ranked right around 30. I think you got to take Paxton at this point, right? I mean, and we should underscore how impressive and how I think welcome this performance was from James Paxson.
Starting point is 00:34:48 Because remember, he left his previous start with that knee issue. Obviously, given his track record, James Paxon leaving a start with an injury is just, oh, no, this is it. Well, he threw 110 pitches. It was most since April of 2019. And his velocity was up in this one, displace. despite throwing 110 pitches and leaving his previous game with an injury. So all very, very good signs for James Paxton. Detmer's what it?
Starting point is 00:35:17 So he's throwing his slider with less velocity. He's getting more drop on that pitch as well. That's a, I think a specific change that he's made. He's also throwing his curveball a lot over his last six starts. And the results overall, 45 strikeouts to 12 walks over his past 36 and two thirds innings. he's done the curveball has done a better job of limiting hard contact on the fastball or slider. Obviously the fastball and slider get a bunch of whiffs. So I think that finding the right balance has been a key for Red Demers.
Starting point is 00:35:46 The problem is for week 15, whatever, this is week 15, he's going to be ranked pretty low because it's a five game week and I'm pretty sure he's not pitching this week for the Angels. So that's the bad news for Reed Detmer's is. probably won't see him until after the All-Star break if I'm reading the schedule correctly. So that's not great. But yeah, he's awesome. And then Ober, I don't know why like, why does, why does Bailey Ober not get the same, like, the same love that like Joe Ryan does? Yeah, he's kind of Joe Ryan light.
Starting point is 00:36:29 Technically, his ERA and WIP are better than Joe Ryan at this point. And his peripherals don't match what he's done, but we're also going on, I think it's 24-star, to 130-something innings of like a 2-9 ERA, dating back to the end of last season. The stuff doesn't necessarily rate out super well, but when you're 6'9 and you've got a long delivery,
Starting point is 00:36:53 he delivers the ball closer to home plate than basically any other pitcher in baseball, which makes for an uncomfortable experience for hitters. Yeah, I'm looking at my ranking, now I have Billy Ober at SP 50. Yeah, I've had him way too low. So I'm also guilty of this. There's no excuse.
Starting point is 00:37:10 I mean, there's no reason why he shouldn't be ranked inside it. I mean, the top 45 at least, maybe even the top 40 starting pitchers. Why should he be behind Lance Lynn? Oh, I mean, I have Lance Lynn. I think at like SP 70. So I've been, he's been plummeting down the rankings. But like that kind of, yeah, like I'm, I'm guilty as well of not taking Bailey over seriously enough.
Starting point is 00:37:30 And it's partially just. because the peripherals don't match up, but he's outperformed his peripherals consistently enough in his career that there's something there. You know, it's a little Tony Gonsolin-esque. Yeah. My picture rankings, 39 to 43, Yuri Perez, John Gray, Bryce Elder, Tyler Wells, James Paxson. Bailey Ober, I'm moving him into that group. He absolutely should be part of that group moving forward. He's been really, really good this season. Let's hit some new. and notes before we get to our final break and the big news this weekend was that Shane McClanahan was pulled again on Friday with back tightness and he was placed
Starting point is 00:38:10 on the IL Saturday no timetable for his return I look speculating I think normally we just like the defaults is four weeks like four to six weeks I hope it's not that long for Shane McClainahan but I think the raids are gonna play it pretty cautiously with him going into the second half here Corby Carroll did not start any of the Diamondbacks three games this weekend because of a shoulder injury. And Scott and I expressed some concern about this on Friday's podcast because this is the same shoulder that Corby and Carroll had surgery on in the past. So it is pretty scary. He appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday, which makes me believe, all right, maybe he'll be back in the
Starting point is 00:38:54 lineup Tuesday, but it's pretty scary. It's pretty scary there for Corbyn Carroll. Aaron Judge played catching the outfield Friday. the third straight day of on-field work for Judge. He's been out since early June with a ligament tear in his right big toe and remains without a timetable. We had a trade this weekend. The Rangers acquired Aroldus Chapman for pitcher Cole Rayons and outfielder Roney Cabrera.
Starting point is 00:39:20 Arolda Chabman has been very good this season. A 245 ERA, a 123 whip, 16.3K per 9, 17.8% swinging strike rate. But Chris, I believe Will Smith, will remain as the Rangers closer because A, his numbers have also been very good, and B, he has a long history of working with Bruce Bochy. I don't really see a reason for him to lose his job.
Starting point is 00:39:42 Yeah, I think that's the biggest thing. He's got to lose his job. But that being said, he's going from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the best, A world as Chapman is. So now it's if something happens to the guy ahead of him, I mean, he might be a top eight closer, whereas before it's probably more like in the teens,
Starting point is 00:40:01 given how bad the Royals are. Yeah, and if you do play in any saves plus hold leagues, Aroldus Chapman is 32% rostered. And again, going to a better team, as many strikeouts as he gets, the ratios, he absolutely should be rostered in all saves plus hold leagues moving forward. That is Aroldus Chapman. Carlos Rodan through three and two-thirds scoreless innings in his rehab outing on Saturday and appears set to make his Yankee debut this Friday against the Chicago Cubs.
Starting point is 00:40:28 Chris, would you dare start Carlos Rodon? in his first start out? I probably wouldn't. It's similar to Terrick Scoobel, who is expected to make his debut this week as well. I probably feel a little better about Scoobel in his first start back just because he's made more of those rehab appearances. But, you know, Radon through 58 pitches in his last rehab start.
Starting point is 00:40:50 I could see him getting up to like 80-ish in this one. And look, I mean, Carlos Redan, when he's rolling, he could go six, seven innings with 9. strikeouts over 80 pitches. It's just the likelyer outcome is five innings or four innings. So I would try to steer clear, but obviously I expect him to be very good after the All-Star break. Yeah, I was thinking 70 to 75 pitches for Rodan or five innings, whatever happens first. I don't think the Yankees are going to push him very much in his first start back. The only league where I have him is in a 15 team league. So I think I'm actually starting
Starting point is 00:41:29 him, but yeah, if you play in a 12-teamer, you might want to just play it safe, Carlos Fordon's first game back. Brandon Woodruff will delay his next bullpen sessions as he hasn't been recovering as well as the Brewers would like. He's been out since April with a shoulder strain. Framber Valdez did not make his scheduled start on Sunday due to a sprained ankle, and we're not entirely sure about this week either. Let's say we don't get any information by the time lineups lock on Monday, Chris.
Starting point is 00:41:55 Would you bench Framber Valdez and play it safe? Yeah, that's the direction I'm leaning. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Clayton Kershaw could be placed in the IL Monday, though we don't know for sure. He's been managing left shoulder inflammation over the past couple days. Jazz Chisholm was removed Sunday due to left oblique soreness.
Starting point is 00:42:13 He's day to day until we learn more. But obliques are very tricky, Chris. It would not surprise me if at the least, jazz misses a couple of games at most. He's back on the IL. Yeah. I'd be surprised if he wasn't on the IL that, you know, listening to Skip Schumacher after the game. Skip Schumacher?
Starting point is 00:42:32 I think it's Schumacher. Schumacher. It was, you know, obviously, quote, we're very concerned anytime someone gets hurt during a swing and obliques obviously are especially tricky. So I think the median outcome is IL stint. And the, unfortunately, I would say the likely outcome,
Starting point is 00:42:54 a likely outcome is, you know, we're looking at four weeks. I mean, that's just, that's kind of the default with oblique injuries. Sometimes it's only two weeks. Sometimes it's a few days. But they tend to be really tricking. You have to be really careful with them because you can't really do anything in baseball without your oblique. Because it's all every baseball motion, right, is twisting your trunk, as they say. And the oblique's a big part of that.
Starting point is 00:43:21 So yeah, it's I would. Yeah, I, the Marlins. I mean, the brave were very, very rude to the Marlins this weekend. I did not appreciate that. And it was very much a like, oh, you're not there yet. Yeah. And in fairness, Braves are the best team in baseball. It's annoying.
Starting point is 00:43:41 They're so much better than everyone else, it seems. Yeah, the Marlins need to make some multiple trades if jazz Chisholm is going to miss time. Eduardo Rodriguez will make his return Wednesday against the A's. He's still 89% rostered. And rightfully so. People held on. The numbers this year were awesome for Eduardo Rodriguez, and that's a pretty good matchup.
Starting point is 00:44:01 If you really don't have a better option, I could see throwing Rodriguez out there this week against the Oakland A's. Phillies manager, Rob Thompson, suggested Friday that Bryce Harper could see action at first base before the All-Star Break meeting this week. Nick Lodolo will begin a rehab program on Monday. He's been out since early May with a stress reaction in his left tibia.
Starting point is 00:44:20 He's 59% rostered. Still sounds like we won't see Nick Lodolo until, August at the earliest, but he still does possess quite a bit of upside. So if you have an IL spot available and he's, you know, on the way for watch. Yeah, for sure. Absolutely. Bryce Miller left Friday start early with a blister on his right middle finger. He, his next start is also in doubt. So you may, you might want to bench Bryce Miller this week. Yeah, they called up someone from AAA, Darren McCoff and McCaff. McCaff. I don't know how you pronounce. McCann.
Starting point is 00:44:53 Might be McCann. But he's on the taxi squad and seems likely as a Miller replacement. So I wouldn't expect Bryce Miller this week. Mackenzie Gore left his start Saturday with a blister on his left middle finger. It remains unclear whether he'll make his next start. But he has slowed down quite a bit. You probably want to bench McKenzie Gore anyway. Terrick Scuba will start Tuesday against the A's.
Starting point is 00:45:16 His first start since August of last year. He's 65% rostered. Could be out there in some shallower leagues. So go, make sure. Check if Terrick Scuba is available. Alec Manoa made another rehab start Sunday at AA. How did it go? Five innings of one run ball.
Starting point is 00:45:32 10 strikeouts. All right, Chris. Progress. Yeah, I watched some of the highlights of it, and it seemed like it was all fastball for the strikeouts, which, I mean, that's good. You want to see Alec Manoa overpowering double A hitters, but I think the biggest key for him is going to be the slider,
Starting point is 00:45:52 which is really lost effective. since he was a rookie and, you know, I didn't see any of that. That's not a reason not to add him though if he's available in your league. I think he remains a fine stash. Nestor Cortez threw a bullpen session Friday and is scheduled to throw again on Monday. He was placed on the aisle June 8th with a left rotator cuff strain. Chris Bryant made his return Friday, which originally I thought it would be bad news for Nolan Jones. He didn't play each of the past two games, both against right-handed pitching.
Starting point is 00:46:23 and I saw the YouTube chat talking about how Nolan Jones was a way for like his brother's birthday I did not fact check this I don't know how real it is or not I hope it's real because I don't want
Starting point is 00:46:35 Nolan Jones to lose playing time but yeah I don't see anything and then oh yeah that's true via Thomas Harding Nolan Jones missed Saturday and Sunday to be the best man
Starting point is 00:46:47 at his brother's wedding oh okay all right good news my initial reaction was like well that doesn't make sense that the Rockies would bench Nolan Jones except it's the Rockies and they do things that don't make sense all the time so like I can absolutely see it but that's a good note and I will I will add that to my story as well all right good stuff there isaq paratus left Sunday's game
Starting point is 00:47:07 with left rib discomfort it's unclear if he'll miss any additional time Trevor's story is scheduled to take live batting practice Tuesday we previously heard that he might be able to return in August though Alex Coral would not offer a timeline Garrett Whitlock was removed Sunday due to right elbow He was on the IL earlier this season with ulnaritis in that same elbow and will undergo an MRI on Monday. Daniel Hudson made his return Friday through a scoreless inning with two strikeouts. He's 24% rostered and certainly could factor into the safe situation for the Dodgers. So if you play in a deeper league and you're desperate for saves, the name there is Daniel Hudson. Junjin Ryu is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday in his return from Tommy John surgery.
Starting point is 00:47:52 He made six starts last year, had a 567 ERA and a 133 whip. Chris, do you have any deep league interest in Hyunjin Ryu? This is one that I'm going to have to see. He really hasn't been particularly useful since, what, 2020? Correct. So I'd be passing on that one. Mason Miller was transferred to the 60-day IL. He resumed throwing earlier in June, but we haven't heard much since then.
Starting point is 00:48:21 Miller has been out since May with a UCL sprain. Brandon Fott was optioned back to AAA after his rough start Thursday against the raise. Pavin Smith was also optioned back to AAA. Kyle Lewis was recalled. And he's just a name to watch in deeper leagues to see if he gets consistent playing time because obviously that Diamondbacks lineup is really, really good. The Astros optioned Ronel Blanco back to AAA. And names that went to the IL this weekend, Royce Lewis with a left oblique strain,
Starting point is 00:48:50 Jose Miranda was recalled. And in case you were wondering, Miranda has been pretty mediocre in the minor. So I don't think there is much of a priority there with him. Brandon Jury went to the IL with a left shoulder contusion. Michael Kopeck with right shoulder inflammation. That one sounds like they're just trying to limit his innings going into the all-star break. J-Wan Bay with an ankle injury and James Caprillion with a right shoulder strain. Do you want to go back just for Daniel Hudson real quick. I don't think you should add him. yet, but he was definitely someone who was in the mix for saves before his timeline got pushed back for his torn ACL. So, you know, it might be a situation where if he shows he's good in a couple of weeks,
Starting point is 00:49:33 the Dodgers could end up giving him some chances and just kind of use Bruce Dargar Adderall and Evan Phillips in a more flexible role. So that's more of a keep an eye on, but there could be some significant second have value there. I saw he was available in one of my 15 team leagues and he went for $13 out of a $1,000 budget. So a pretty small bid, one to one and a half percent. But again, that's a deeper league where everyone's desperate for save. So I could see adding Daniel Hudson in a league like that. Let's take our final break.
Starting point is 00:50:07 And when we return, quickly run through some of the June stat leaders. Some other leftovers will do that here on Fantasy Baseball today. Big thanks to everybody watching us live. We do appreciate you being here. on a Sunday evening, Monday morning, holiday weekend. So we appreciate you hanging out, spending the time with us. Make sure like this video and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. Let's get into the June leaders here and quickly run through some of the hitting stats,
Starting point is 00:50:34 batting average for the month of June. No surprise. It was Luis Arise with a 406 batting average. Shohei Otani was second at 394 and get used to that name because you're going to hear it a lot. Home runs leader in the month of June, Shohay Otani with 15, no surprise. Luis Robert and Matt Olson were each tied with 11 home runs
Starting point is 00:50:55 second place for the month. Matt Olson, by the way, has four straight multi-hit games, including going four for five with a double dong on Friday. He is now up to 28 home runs on the season. Your runs leader in June, you might have thought, oh, it's got to be
Starting point is 00:51:11 Shoha Tani. Wrong. Another player who is red hot, Kattel Marte, had 30 runs in 25 games played. Shoah Otani was your RBI leader in June 29 RBI. Corey Seeger and Matt Olson had 25 each, and your steals leader, Ronald Acuna, had 14 in the month. He also hit 356 with nine homers.
Starting point is 00:51:31 This guy is a machine. He does not stop. This weekend for Acuna, five hits, two homers, three steals. He's up to 21 home runs and 39 stolen bases on July 2nd. That's about halfway through the year. I mean, this guy's on pace for almost a 40-80 season. It's crazy. It's crazy what we're seeing right now, Chris.
Starting point is 00:51:53 Anything you'd like to add on these stat leaders from June? If you bet on Ronald Ocunae and Shohei Otani to be the MVP's this season, things are looking pretty good. I mean, yeah, there's nothing new to add about any of these guys. Otani I realize today is third in average eggs of velocity as a hitter. And third, the top 3% in average eggs of velocity as a hitter. He's in the top 7% in average exit velocity allowed as a pitcher. What do you say?
Starting point is 00:52:22 He's remarkable. Not much else to say there. Your pitching leaders in June, the ERA leader was Yuri Perez with a 0.32 ERA, and then he got destroyed on July 1st. We'll talk about that in just a little bit. Your whip leader, no way. If I would have told you this back in April or May, you would have said, Frank, you are crazy. Blake Snell, your whip leader for the month.
Starting point is 00:52:45 0.68. Wins leader, Taiwan Walker. He had five wins in the month. He also did that with a 1.50 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. Your strikeouts leader, this one should not surprise you. Again, it's Blake Snell, 53 strikeouts. He has double-digit strikeouts in four straight starts. And your saves leader in the month was Jordan Romano with 12. Chris, if you want to use this as an opportunity to just get into Yuri Perez and what happened this weekend, feel free. But any thoughts here on this group. That outing for Yuri Perez, he gave up six earned runs on one out recorded against the Braves. It was so bad that you almost don't, you can't say anything about it.
Starting point is 00:53:26 Like, he was overperforming his peripherals and now his numbers are more in line with his peripherals. So I guess we got all the regression out of the way. And he only added one third of an inning to his innings total. So I would imagine that was the last start he'll make before the All Star break. I would guess we'll see. him like the 18th of July or something, I think is like the fifth turn through the rotation for the Marlins after the break. I would expect we'll see him around then, maybe a little later.
Starting point is 00:53:54 Maybe it's a, maybe it's a blessing in disguise, except that it ruined your ERA this week. Yeah, or if I guess if you start him in a points league, I don't know what that is, but I'm sure it was negative. Not a lot. Yeah. So, Yuri Prize gave up six runs and recorded just one out. his numbers after the start 247 ERA and a 112 whip. It's just he was that good where he could afford to have a truly awful start and
Starting point is 00:54:20 still have amazing overall numbers this season. Start sit or drop these pitchers. We spoke about Luis Severino earlier. Tage Bradley, he is struggling. He has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts. He was at the Mariners this weekend. Three and a third
Starting point is 00:54:36 innings. Five earned runs in that start. He still gave you a bunch of swinging strikes. He still gave you a bunch of hard contact allowed. And that kind of seems to be where we're at. He's, I don't want to say the three true outcomes pitcher right now, but I guess if there was such a thing, getting strikeouts, walking too many, and giving up a lot of hard contact, that kind of who, that kind of is who Taj Bradley is right now. Chris, what do we do with Taj Bradley? Yeah, the walks overall, the walk rate is, is not too bad, right? It's like 7%. That's actually decent. The problem is, as it was in this one,
Starting point is 00:55:15 on Sunday, he'll add 16 balls in play with an average eggs of 90.4 miles per hour for some context. Matt Olson is six in the majors with a 94.4 mile per hour average eggs of velocity this season. So it's just getting crushed. I wouldn't be surprised if the race sent him down after this one to try to, you know, give him some extra time and figure things out. Obviously, we know how that's gone for him. I don't really know what to make of it, except that he's just a work in progress and it's going to be inconsistent moving forward. So that's frustrating.
Starting point is 00:55:53 There's definitely talent there. I mean, we see it. His last two starts, I think he's given up 12 earned runs, 11 earned runs in his last two starts. The two starts before that, three earn runs with 19 strikeouts. So it's like, it would be one thing if he could just pick one lane, you know, but it seems like it's just all or nothing with Todge Bradley all season. Other pitching standouts from the weekend. Pitching standouts, part one.
Starting point is 00:56:19 Justin Steele, a strong start up against the Guardian, six and a third shutout, innings with six strikeouts for him. Nathan Avaldi's Veldy's velocity bounced back on Saturday against the Houston Astros. He threw seven shutout with five strikeouts there. Corbin Burns, a strong bounce back performance at the Pirates, where he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning of that game. And Justin Verlander put together one of his better starts of the season facing the Giants. Seven innings, one unearned run with six strikeouts and 15 swinging strikes.
Starting point is 00:56:49 Chris, anything to add on Verlander, Burns, Avaldi, and Justin Steele. Avaldi ended June with a 377 ERA and like less than a strikeout printing. I think that's a reasonable expectation moving forward for him, which would still make him a very, very useful, very good fantasy pitcher. But I still, I don't think he's an ace. I've been pretty consistent about that. And I think moving forward, I expect more like a mid-ish three ZRA.
Starting point is 00:57:21 All right, pitching standouts part two. Tanner Bybee tied a career high with nine strikeouts at the Cubs. Sunny Gray turned in his first scoreless outing since April 24th. He threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. and did change the pitch mix a little bit in this one. He scrapped the sinker. He used mostly a four-seem fastball, a sweeper, and a curve. And those breaking pitches are Sunny Gray's best with pitches.
Starting point is 00:57:45 So nice to see that out of him at the Orioles this weekend. And Jordan Montgomery had his revenge against the Yankees. Six and two-thirds. One unearned run with six strikeouts. And that one, Chris, anything on Montgomery, Sunny Gray and Tanner Bybee. It's good to see Bybee, you know, after sort of sliding. a little bit, put together a very good start. I like to see that.
Starting point is 00:58:08 And I think he's going to be pretty good moving forward. You know, he's in that, I think we put him in like that second tier of rookie pitchers, which probably means like 60th overall at starting pitcher moving forward in that range. Not much to add on Gray or Montgomery. I think they're both just good. Not great, but good. Fair enough. Some hitting standout.
Starting point is 00:58:29 Spencer Stier cannot stop mashing. Hit two more homers this weekend. including a walk-off shot on Friday night. Awesome camera angle, too. If you haven't seen it, Chris, go check out that Spencer Steer walk-off. It was amazing. Byron Buckson went two-for-four with a sock and a shoe on Friday.
Starting point is 00:58:47 His 14th home run and seventh steal. Masataka Yoshita went three-for-four with a sock-in-a-shoe on Friday as well. His ninth home run and fourth steel of the season. He was not in the lineup Sunday after getting hit by a pitch on his leg on Saturday. Again, that was Masataka-Joshita. Mookie Betz is getting ready for the home run derby. He went 4 for 4 with a double dung on Friday. He's now up to 22 home runs this season.
Starting point is 00:59:11 Randy Aros Rana is heating back up. He hit two homers this weekend. Mani Machado went two for five with a double dong on Saturday. Matt Chapman went two for three with a sock and a shoe. His 11th home run, his third steal. He's still hitting the ball hard, but it hasn't really translated to fantasy production. There might be some unluckiness there for Matt Chapman.
Starting point is 00:59:34 Raphael Devers, back-to-back, three-hit games on Saturday and Sunday. Rough June for Josh Lowe, but maybe this weekend will help him get back on track. He had four hits, a home run, and a steal. He's up to 12 homers and 19 steals overall. Chris, do you have any quick thoughts on Josh Lowe? Because we've been getting lots of questions on him. Obviously, his April was amazing. His May came back down to Earth a little bit but was still very good.
Starting point is 00:59:58 And then his June, he just completely plummeted. Your thoughts on Josh Lowe? it's sort of similar to my thoughts on Jared Kelnick where what we wanted to see from him to start the season was does he have anything? Can he be a major league caliber player? He answered that emphatically. And then it becomes what does it look like when the adjustments come?
Starting point is 01:00:22 And in both cases, I think the adjustments have exposed some stuff for them. And in Josh Lowe's case, in particular, what makes it really difficult is he just doesn't play against lefties. 28 played appearances against lefties all season. So even when things are going well, there's only so much he brings to the table. So I think he's someone I want around in a roto league, but head-to-head points league, I think
Starting point is 01:00:45 he's pretty fringy. Again, that is Josh Lowe. And the last note here, Andres Jimenez went two for four with a sock in the shoe on Sunday evening, his sixth home run and 10th steal. And he's been better. His last 29 games, Andres Jimenez has been 2.91 with three home. and three steals. So hopefully something he can carry over
Starting point is 01:01:05 into the second half as well. Some bullpen updates here for the Nationals. Hunter Harvey picked up two saves this weekend and basically just looks like the guy right now for the Nationals. He's 22% rostered. If you need saves, again, the name there, Hunter Harvey. For the Rockies on Friday,
Starting point is 01:01:22 Pierce Johnson pitched a clean ninth inning for his 13th save. Justin Lawrence last pitched on Wednesday, so theoretically, he should have been available. I would have thought, on Friday. And then on Saturday, Pierce Johnson entered in the 10th inning with the game tied,
Starting point is 01:01:37 and the Manfred Man on second base. He gave up three runs on three hints, took his fourth loss. It's a mess. Pierce Johnson is not very good. I just kind of wish the Rockies would devote it to one player, Justin Lawrence or Daniel Bard, whoever it might be, but it's just kind of a mess right now.
Starting point is 01:01:57 For the Oakland A's on Friday, Trevor May recorded the final four outs for his fifth save. for the Mets on Saturday. One day after David Robertson blew the game, Adam Adavino pitched a clean ninth inning for his sixth save. And then on Sunday,
Starting point is 01:02:11 Adam Adovino pitched to eighth, and the Mets tacked on a few more runs in the ninth. David Robertson did pitch in the bottom of the inning with a four-run lead, so no save there, but he did strike out too, and he looked much better in that outing. For the Diamondbacks on Saturday, Scott McGuff, back at it
Starting point is 01:02:28 after blowing Wednesday night's game. He walked two, but picked up his, seventh save of the season. Still seems like he's the leader for the Diamondbacks, but I would expect him to make a trade at some point. For the Twins on Sunday, Yohan Duran entered in the eighth inning
Starting point is 01:02:43 with a one-run lead. He gave up two runs on three hits, took his third blown save and third loss. For the White Sox on Sunday, Kendall Graveman was unavailable. Gregory Santos pitched in a ninth. He gave up two runs but picked up his first save. And for the Guardians on
Starting point is 01:02:59 Sunday, Emmanuel Class A got the ninth. ending with a four-run lead, he gave up exactly four runs, not even a save opportunity, and he gives up all four runs to tie the game. It's been a little, I can't say disappointing because I think he leads the league and saves, but he has not been as lights out as he has years past. 100%. He's been less effective this season than what we hope to see for sure. I mean, a 121 whip is bad for a closer.
Starting point is 01:03:31 A 340 ERA now is not great. And the thing is, the ERA has been pretty good for most of the season, but the XERA and the peripherals have suggested he was getting a little lucky. And now it's caught up to him. The strikeout rate is right around average, which sounds better than it is for an elite closer. You know, this is a guy who's typically in the 27 to 29% strikeout rate range. He's a 22.6 right now. And the slider in particular, he's,
Starting point is 01:04:00 velocity's been down about a mile. per hour on the cutter, but the slider whiff rate has dropped from 43% to 34%. So there's, I think, legitimate concern that Class A is not bad, but not an elite, elite, closer right now, which is concerning. Let's wrap up with to stream or not to stream. We'll start with Monday, which is a smaller slate of games. I, the names are actually okay. I think Brian Wu at the Giants.
Starting point is 01:04:30 Drew Smiley at the Brewers. Fine with that. They're really bad against lefties. And even Domingo Hermann versus the Orioles, I think it's fine. I could see, obviously, Hermon having a good start. I like Brian Wu,
Starting point is 01:04:43 but Hermann's probably at the top of the list, I guess. I don't know. Don't want to fall for it. I like Brian Wu more, just based on the whiffs that he's getting right now. So I put him at the top, followed by Drew Smiley, Domingo Herman.
Starting point is 01:04:55 Julio Tehran is fine up against the Cubs too. Again, more regression is coming for him. but it's not a terrible matchup against the Cups. On Tuesday, looking up and down, there's actually a lot of interesting names here. Emmett Sheehan versus the Pirates. I think that one's really good. I think Terrick Scobul versus the A's.
Starting point is 01:05:18 Yes, it's his first start. Kenton Maeda. Yeah. Versed the Royals. That's as much about the Royals as Kentimaiata, but the Royals are a disaster against Ryana pitching. I think they're bottom three in Wobah and strikeout rate. well, top three in strikeout right, I guess.
Starting point is 01:05:33 Yeah, there's, even JP France at the Tigers is really good. Kyle Hendricks at the Brewers is fine. Wade Miley versus the Cubs is okay. Terrick Scoobel versus Oakland. Yeah. Yeah, so I think Sheehan, Scuba, and Maida are the top three. But if you miss out on those, I think JP France at the Tigers, Kyle Hendricks at the Brewers and Wade Miley versus the Cubs,
Starting point is 01:05:55 I think all those names are fine on the 4th of July. We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
Starting point is 01:06:07 We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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