Fantasy Baseball Today - ADP Analysis! Overvalued and Undervalued! (2/8 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: February 8, 2021FantasyPros ADP- https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php Today on the podcast, we're focusing on average draft position! Which player is undervalued for Scott (1:53)? How about overvalued? ...... Marcell Ozuna is returning to the Braves (6:30)! Ozuna or Springer in H2H points? Ozuna or Tucker in Roto? ... We had a trade (11:00)! Elvis Andrus and company were sent to Oakland in exchange for a Khris Davis package. ... How should one weigh ADP vs. rankings (18:50)? ... Is Christian Yelich undervalued in the first round (24:05)? ... Is Bo Bichette overvalued as a second-rounder (25:52)? ... Are Alex Bregman and Anthony Rendon the best values in drafts (30:05)? ... Should you fade JT Realmuto and Tyler Glasnow in the fourth round (33:32)? ... A pair of New Yorkers are overvalued in the fifth round (37:57). Why has Starling Marte dropped? ... Scott is fading Teoscar Hernandez and Max Fried in the sixth round (42:19). Who is the real Sonny Gray? ... Carlos Carrasco is one of the best values of the draft in the seventh round (46:42). ... Scott reveals his other overvalued and undervalued players (51:20). ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
I drive, center field, and swing.
This is magnificent.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Welcome on in to Fantasy Baseball Today.
Full transparency.
We are recording this on Sunday afternoon,
for the Super Bowl, you will be listening to it on Monday, February 8th, because let's be
honest, we want to watch the Super Bowl, and I'm likely going to be intoxicated tonight.
Welcome to the show, Frank Stanful here, joined by Scott White.
Chris was supposed to be on this podcast, but as soon as he joined, his internet went out.
It is snowing again in New York City.
There's like snowballs falling from the sky.
It's absolutely insane.
But Scott, I mean, Chris becomes an analyst.
Guy takes a week off for vacation.
Now he doesn't want to do the podcast.
I don't know, man.
I think he's starting to big time us here.
I don't know.
Well, he's still technically on vacation, right?
So maybe it was a divine intervention there.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I had to cancel a mock draft last week because my internet was out.
So the internet gods are conspiring against us.
Crazy times, indeed.
Yeah.
Look, everyone's working from home.
So I imagine the internets are bogged down right now.
Today on the show, we are taking a closer look at ADP analysis.
who is undervalued and overvalued.
We'll go round by round.
Really focus in on the first like eight or so rounds
and then give you some picks outside the top 100 and top 200 as well.
Scotty is hyped because his boy,
Marcel OZuna returns to the Atlanta Braves.
We also had a trade over the weekend.
We'll get into all that.
But Scott, let's start with this.
ADP analysis is the crux of the show.
Give me one of your favorite undervalued players right now in drafts.
At Olson, who's going 82nd overall.
And I don't really understand why.
He didn't have a great year last year, as was true of a lot of first baseman.
Most aren't getting dinged as hard for it as he is.
And I don't see anything in the underlying numbers to suggest he's a different player.
So he hit 195.
He still had 14 homers, though, in a 60 games.
So obviously, the power is still intact.
I still think Matt Olson and Pete Alonzo are basically,
mirror images of each other,
one batting right-handed,
one batting left-handed.
And Pete Olson is going 53rd overall
compared to Matt Olson's 82nd overall.
When I was putting together
my position strategy pieces,
I had a studs category
at each position, the studs.
And among hitter positions,
I'm pretty sure Matt Olson
was the lowest ranked of the stud,
had the lowest ADP of any of
the studs at any hitter position.
So he's definitely
being undervalued.
Yeah, I would agree with that as well. I'm a fan of
Matt Olson. I was last year. He let us down
with a 195 batting average, but seems like he was hurt by
some
some bad Babup luck, 227
Babbap for him in the shortened season,
whereas he is a career 277
Babbup guy.
Again, that is Matt
Olson. So we would expect the batting average to bounce back a
little bit. Not that he's going to be a contributor there,
He definitely should not be batting below 200 as well.
On the other side there, Scott, someone that is overvalued.
You might be looking the other way at in drafts.
So I actually think Jose Abraeu.
I'll stick at first base.
Jose Abraeu is somebody who's being overvalued going 33rd overall.
So third round pick, even in a 12-team league on average.
And I've noticed when we do our mock drafts with folks around the industry,
he doesn't tend to go as high as the third round.
So I think we're more of the mindset
he should be like a fifth rounder.
I mean, obviously, if you take last year's numbers,
fine, he deserves to go on the third round.
But it's such an outlier for him to produce
that MVP level at an advanced age.
I mean, he's closing in on 35.
And to have this outlier performance
over a very short season,
he's always going to be good.
He's always going to be a solid contributor for your team.
So I don't want to call him like a bust.
But for a third, like I just, I have a very hard time believing he's going to produce like he did last year.
And he pretty much need to to live up to that ADP.
Yeah, the ADP is, it's very steep for Jose Abrae, who is being drafted at pick 33 overall.
And I agree, it's tough because he is now, he will be 34 years old when the season starts.
You're buying coming off an MVP season where he hit 317.
He had 60 RBI and 60 games.
The guy was on pace for 162 RBI over the course of a full season.
So it's just absolutely massive year.
And I really like the player, but agree.
In the third round of a 12-team league, that is very tough.
But, you know, in drafts where everyone has that same mindset, Scott,
he might fall a little bit.
And I did a 15-team rotodraft recently where I got him at pick 51.
So in the fourth round of a 15 teamer,
I think that's actually a pretty solid range to get him outside the top 50s.
Yeah, I think that's fine.
I don't see that as a discount from where I expect him to perform,
but it's obviously safer than drafting him 33 overall.
So I don't, I'm going to see,
let me see if I can pull up my roto rankings real quick to see where I rank him.
I don't know how quickly I'll get.
Oh, here we go.
So I have Jose Abraeu 44th.
So I guess 51st I would be fine with as well.
Nice. All right.
Nice little endorsement there from Scott on my Jose Abraeu pick.
Again, don't take him inside the first three rounds.
But if he falls a little bit, something that we can get behind.
So we're going to do a lot of this throughout the course of today's podcast,
but want to focus in on some of the news and notes.
I wanted to get Chris's thoughts on Trevor Bauer.
It seems like that's not going to happen.
So we'll wait for Chris to join us.
hopefully later on in the week.
Maybe later on in this podcast,
if he can get his internet up and running again.
Scott, I mentioned Marcel Ozuna,
your boy returns to the Atlanta Braves.
This happened on Friday night.
Everything happens on Friday night, Scott.
Like, we recorded the Trevor Bauer emergency podcast
and we were like, you know,
Marcel O'Suna is going to sign,
it's going to happen.
Please let him go back to the Braves
so that we don't have to do another emergency podcast.
As much as we love doing them,
two and one day would have been pretty frustrating there.
But your thoughts, him going back to your Atlanta Braves,
he cashes in after the massive 2020 season.
How much are you buying in on him?
His ADP is in that fourth round range right now.
Yeah, so I am, I think it's impossible to look at what Marcelo Zuna did.
I mean, he was the number, he ended up being the number one outfielder in points league,
ahead of even boogie bats.
In both formats, he finished in Roto and in head-toe and in head-toe points as the number one outfielder,
just massive season.
Wow. Wow. Yeah, I didn't realize that. I don't think a lot of people listening would realize that. I have him 40th in my roto rankings, a little lower in points, obviously, just because there are more pitchers ahead of him in points. So for the most part, I'm buying into it. Like, I don't, I think it's unreasonable to think he will put up that exact same line. Like, there will be a half step back just because, you know, law of average, law of averages dictates that. But, you know, heading into the season, he was that guy who,
man, he keeps falling well short of his expected stats.
What happens if he just gets normal luck, basically?
I don't know if that's the fairest way to categorize it,
but his talent level looks much higher than his performance so far.
And he backed that up in 2020.
So I think he's a stud bat.
I think he's a stud bat.
I'm excited he's back with the Braves.
I think in terms of his fantasy value,
that's obviously a good thing too
because we know he's comfortable there.
We know he works in that park.
We know it's a good lineup for him.
And so,
you know, he's not a bad choice
as a number one outfielder in fantasy, I don't think.
Yeah, and Scott was referencing the underperformance in 2019
for Marcel Ozuna,
where he hit 242 with a 472 slugging percentage.
And while he did that,
his expected batting average, according to
Stackast, which, based on his
quality of contact, said that
he deserved a 291 batting average
and a 548
slugging percentage.
And then in 2020,
obviously has the massive year. He hits
338, 18 home runs, and
Stackcast once again backed him up. So I think
that we have enough data now where
okay, even if he's getting pushed up the board a little bit
compared to where he's been going in years
past, again, this is Marcelo Zuna. I think
he's worth it because the underlying number
really do back up the performance that he put together last season.
So you mentioned, Scott, you have him as a ranked as a top 10 outfielder in both formats
in head-to-head-to-head-points and in Roto.
You would take Marcel O'Zuna over someone like Springer in head-to-head-to-peas?
Yeah, it's a close call, but I think so.
How about in Roto, would you take one of these youngsters that can run, someone like a Kyle
Tucker or Luis Robert ahead of O'una?
Because, you know, in years past, O'Zuna will give you a few steals, but he didn't see a
any actually last season.
So I don't really know what we should expect there.
Yeah, I've been looking at that recently.
I think I have Ozuna ahead right now.
Kyle Tucker.
I can see taking Kyle Tucker O'Ozuna more than over O'Zuna more than I could, Robert.
And of course, to some degree, it just depends on do you have zero steals at the point
that pick is coming up?
Then, you know, maybe then I would take Robert.
But I think there's a lot of downside with Robert that is not being factored in by a lot of
people.
he's probably going to wind up and bust 2.0 for me,
so I don't expect to have many shares in Robert,
but I understand at some point,
you can't always,
when you're looking to meet that steals needs,
you can't always take players you like
because there's just not enough base Steelers to go around.
Yeah, OZuna's ADP 43.8,
so I mentioned in the fourth round,
Kyle Tucker right now at 35,
and Luis Robert at 37.8,
so both going slightly ahead of Ozuna,
and I would expect that's because you project 20-ish steals for each of those guys,
Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert.
We had a trade over the weekend.
The A's acquired Elvis Andrus, catcher Aramis Garcia,
and cash from the Texas Rangers in exchange for designated hitter, Chris Davis,
catcher, Jonah Heim, and right-handed pitching prospect.
Dane Acker for the A's.
Elvis Andrus will play shortstop.
And since the start of 2019, he has not been.
been great. 263 batting average,
384 slug,
688 OPS during that time.
He still did have three home runs
and three steals in just 29
games last season. So Scott, moving over
to the A's, expected to
likely play every day at shortstop.
Anything left in the tank for Elvis Andrews?
I'm not
hopeful of that.
He might be
a cheap contributor in steals for you since
the playing time's going to be there.
You know, last year, obviously short
seasons though three steals not really sure what to make of that but he had 31 in 2019 hit
275 still that would obviously be useful particularly as late as you can get him in a roto
league but clearly on the decline clearly need to have low expectations for him and the same is
true for Chris Davis really it was it was kind of a swap of has-beens here I think maybe
the most notable fantasy implication here is that,
okay, Davis can only play DH.
Willie Calhoun, I mean, we've seen him play left field recently,
but he's basically just a DH last year,
and they have a full outfield anyway, the Rangers do.
So what does this mean for Willie Calhoun?
I'm less interested in him as a sleeper
if Chris Davis is going to be cutting into his at-bats.
Yeah, I was kind of wondering what this does for,
not everyone's playing time,
but I think that it can somewhat affect David Dahl
and Leoti Tavares as well.
I think Joey Gallo is pretty safe to play
near every day in right field
for the Texas Rangers.
But as of now, they do have,
the Rangers have Chris Davis,
they have Willie Calhoun,
they have Leotie Tavaris, as I mentioned,
and David Dahl for basically three spots,
it's center field, left field, and D.H.
So you're basically seeing
Chris Davis and Willie Calhoun just take away from each other.
You're not worried as much about Dahl and Tavares there, Scott?
I mean, it would require, for them to lose the bats to Chris Davis,
it would require Willie Calhoun to play some outfield.
And I'm not sure how interested.
He still played eight games there last year.
Willie Calhoun did.
I know he was DH only.
He was only two games short of getting outfield eligibility.
So maybe there'll be, yeah, I doubt it'll be a situation where it's always this thing.
you know, if David Dahl is struggling,
then of course he's going to lose more playing time.
If Willie Cahoon is killing it,
then, you know, of course he's going to lose less playing time.
But I think going in, the plan would be more like a DH platoon.
You know, other guys like Delino to Shields,
Charlie Culberson might be around to impact the at-bats of somebody like David Dahl.
But obviously that was always a possibility even before this trade.
And Tavares is a pretty popular sleeper candidate.
I've seen, at least in Roto leagues, because four homers, eight steals in 33 games in 2020 for Tavares.
So he does have some speed.
I showed that off in the minor leagues as well.
He's played about 65 games at AA.
So there's a chance that he starts the year in the minors, but he looked pretty good last year in his limited playing time.
Scott, at catcher, I just wanted to address this with the Rangers as well.
They acquired Jonah Haim.
They also have Jose Trevino.
And we're kind of excited about Sam Hoff, who is a.
One of the top catching prospects in baseball, he obviously has massive power.
He flashed out a little bit towards the end of the season.
So how do you see the catcher situation playing out here for the Rangers?
Well, I had read from one of the Rangers beatwriters.
I don't remember which one that Sam Huff's expected to begin in the minors,
that they're planning to go with Trevino as their starter to begin the era.
Expect Huff to be up at some point, obviously.
But I don't think acquiring Jonah Heim is going to impact Huff's timetable
at all. So, minimal impact there.
All righty. Yeah, I mean, Sam Huff, there's a lot to be excited about there.
Big power, lots of strikeouts, almost like a Joey Gallo-esque at the catcher position.
But we should see him at some point here in 2021. Last thing on this trade, A's GM, David
Forst said Saturday that they're in the market for bullpen help. They did manage to save some money
here in this trade or receive money from the Rangers. Either way, they have some more money available.
and Trevor Rosenthal and Mark Malanson are still out there.
So as of now, it looks like Jake Deekman is the favorite,
the in-house favorite for saves with Oakland,
but there's still a chance that they can sign another reliever for the back end there.
Speaking of the A's,
we didn't start my fires.
They brought him back on a one-year deal.
He's really not very good for fantasy purposes anymore.
The Mets signed outfielder Albert Almora,
more of a defense first type player,
and he projects to play against left-hand.
handed pitching in a platoon in center field with Brandon Nimmo playing against right-handed
pitching. So there you go. Not really much to see there. The Reds. I like Brandon Nimmo more than
that, but yeah, apparently that's the direction they're going to go. Yeah, look, Nimmo especially
and points leads are OBP. He's fantastic. And if he leads off against right-handed pitching,
he should be able to score a good amount of runs as well. So he's a good player, but it seems like
they don't really want to give them opportunities
against left-handed pitching.
So at least in a platoon to start there for Brendan Nimmo,
the Reds apparently have been in contact with Jonathan VR
regarding their open shortstop job.
Though a deal is not yet in place,
VR would be a nightmare defensively at shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds,
but it would be pretty fun for fantasy.
So something to monitor there.
He becomes the, after Adelberto Mondesie,
VR becomes the expected steals leader, I would say, if he's an everyday player.
I wasn't counting on him being an everyday player.
But it seems like the Reds would be a good destination for that.
And might help him reclaim some of the power he lost in that move from Baltimore to Miami last year.
Yep, no, definitely a fair point.
If he had the opportunity to play every day again, we could see 15 plus homers, 30 plus
steals, definitely valuable more so from a Roto perspective.
of course, before we get into the ADP review, quickly promote a few things.
Moving forward, you will now be able to watch us stream.
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turn on notifications so you get an alert every time we go live. You can watch everything happen
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have some fun.
And just a programming note that the rest of this week, you'll be hearing our position previews.
We're going to start those for 2021.
We'll have catcher first and second base this week.
ADP review will be using Fantasy Pro's average draft position for this exercise,
which currently uses an aggregate of draft data from the NFBC.
That's the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, fan tracks, RT Sports, and Yahoo.
And before long, CBS ADP will be part of that.
aggregate as well. I'll put the link to the ADP in the podcast and YouTube description. So if you want to
click on it and follow along with some of the players that we're talking about, feel free to do so.
But Scott, as a precursor to this ADP conversation, we got an Apple podcast review question.
And I thought that it was pretty interesting one. And it has to do with ADP. So this one's from
Jeff in Washington, D.C. says, I rely a lot on the CBS experts. That would be us when I rank players
for drafts, but was wondering whether to temper those rankings with ADP this year.
If, for example, you rank a player 20 spots higher than ADP,
do you just pick your guy or do you weigh ADP and potentially wait because you probably can?
This would mostly apply where experts' ranks are substantially higher than ADP.
So, Scott, this is basically a get your guy's conversation.
Now, just because you rank a player 20 spots higher than ADP,
do you have to take them there
or maybe take them one round ahead of ADP
just to make sure you get that player
because you're excited about them?
How do you weigh those things together?
So I treat my rankings,
and this has been a point of contention
over the years.
I construct my rankings
as a draft guide,
as a tool to use in the draft.
This is the order you should draft these players.
And so I'm taking into account perception.
I'm taking into account ADP.
A lot of the changes I mean.
make to my rankings over the course of draft prep season because obviously when I first put
together the rankings, I'm kind of going in blind. I don't have any of that info. But as I'm
adjusting rankings leading up to the height of draft prep season leading up to opening day, the changes
are being made because I'm finding I can get certain players later or players that I want to get
more of. I'm not able to get them because I don't rank them high enough. So I'm adjusting my rankings
with that in mind, with ADP in mind.
So that would be the answer for my rankings personally.
But I know a lot of people just rank them based on
this is how I think their numbers are going to look at the end of the season
and not accounting for what other people are doing at all.
So, you know, there's no like,
there's no set way to do rankings,
which makes it difficult to answer this question.
But I guess if I'm going to apply an answer for just ranking,
rankings in general, I would say, no, consider the rankings, but also factor in ADP,
because there's no reason to reach for a guy by three rounds. Maybe one round, like you said,
if it's somebody you really want, but you don't, you obviously want to maximize the value of every
pick and you have to take into account ADP if you do, which again, I try to already do in my rankings,
but if you're using somebody else's rankings, you can't assume that.
No, it's a good point. And we spoke about this recently for one of our mock
where I think Kyle Hendricks went in like the third round.
I think it was our points league mock draft where you probably, based on ADP,
didn't have to pull him up the board that high, maybe the fourth round.
Like if you just want to make sure that you get him,
but based on ADP probably would have been there in the fifth or even the sixth round.
So there are different ways to make rankings,
but I think it is foolish to completely ignore average draft position,
just to give yourself an idea of where players are going.
So you know, okay, if I like this guy and he's going at pick 80,
but I want to make sure I get them.
Again, maybe you pull them up the board by one round,
but you have to maximize the value of all your picks.
So I thought that was very well said.
And my rankings, similar, Scott.
I take into account recent ADP trends.
So at NFBC, you can sort it by a time frame.
So I'll look at things like that.
But ultimately, my rankings,
my top 300 for both head to head points and roto,
are if I'm on the board,
which player would I take between this player,
like, between all the players available,
how would I draft these guys?
And that is how I do my rankings in.
That's what I always thought rankings should be.
But I know, like, there are rankings contests that run on fantasy pros,
and they basically assess at the end of the year whose rankings were most accurate,
which I get too.
But the rankings fill a specific function in draft prep season.
And so if you're doing it for some accuracy contest at the end of the season,
I think you're doing the people looking at the ranking.
a disservice. Well, Scott, I'm happy you brought that up. I'll give myself a little pat on the back
here, but I have finished top 10 in the accuracy competition on fantasy pros each of the past two
seasons. I haven't gotten the results or I haven't seen them yet. Maybe they came out and I just
wasn't part of the top 10. But for 2018 and 2019, I have finished top 10 in the competition. So
hopefully can keep that going. But yeah, let's jump right in. First round, we'll go round by round
here.
Maybe not spend as much time on each player so we can get to as many as we possibly can.
But the first round, Scott, I mean, does anything stand out?
Obviously, it starts with Ronald Lucuna here, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis.
You have your top three at the top.
Mike Trout right behind those names.
We have the big three of Garrett Cole, Jacob de Grom, and Shane Bieber ranked inside the top 12 picks.
The one that stands out for me as potentially undervalued.
It's really hard to say over undervalued in the first round.
But Christian Yellich was arguably the number of.
one player being drafted in fantasy last year, and now you're getting him at an ADP of 11.5. So if you are
still a believer in Christian Yellich and the talent, he is potentially undervalued at the spot.
Yeah, that's fair. I think I have him ninth. No, I think I have him 10th, actually, because Trevor's
story checks in behind him here in ADP. I have story ahead of Yelich, but I have Jose Ramirez behind him.
I have Garrett Cole behind him. That's the one that really stands out for me. You've been saying
yourself that you would prefer Garrett Cole number one at starting pitcher. I thought you were
kind of on an island with that, but apparently not, because Garrett Cole is going first of the
big three in ADP. I have him a few spots behind both Bieber, who I have number one and DeGrom to.
So, Cole's the one who stands out for me as being, I guess, overrated. But obviously, if he's your
guy, the first round is where you need to take him. Yeah, so I have Garrett Cole as my SP won in
points leagues just because he has consistently gone a little bit deeper into starts over the past
couple of years than Jacob de Grom has. But in Roto, any type of head-needer. Neither is deep as
Bieber. That is true. Which is why I have him number one. Yeah, which helps for points
leagues and obviously helps their chances at getting wins as well. In any type of Roto or
head-to-head categories context, I will take Jacob de Grom, I think on an inning by inning basis,
he will be the best starting pitcher in fantasy. So I'll take him in Roto. I'll take Garicol in head-to-head
points leagues. The second round, these are picks
13 through 24, that
starts with Freddie Freeman, and
it ends with Max Scherzer.
Some potential overvalued
players in this range, Scott.
We spoke about him on the tiers episode,
but Mani Machado,
you have in the same tier as guys like
Alex Breggman and
obviously Anthony Rendon.
We'll talk about those a little bit further down in the third
round, but based on that, you know, he would be
overvalued in the second round range.
and Boba Chet, which I think is an interesting case, Scott,
because I'll keep making this comparison.
I don't know if the upside is as high,
but I have this like Fernando Tatis vibe with Boba Chet
where, yes, you have to pay a big price in the second round,
but I think that there's a chance that we could be drafting Boba Chet
as a first rounder next year,
but it's also a deep position at shortstop,
and you have to pay a pretty penny here in the second round to get him.
Yeah, I'm really surprised.
he's going this high?
I think it might be justified.
I would like to have
worse shares of Bo Bichette
than it appears I'm going to have
based on this ADP.
But the thing you have to keep in mind
about Bo Bichette is he's played 75 career games.
He hasn't even played half a season
in the majors yet.
And some,
a big disparity in the stats
he put up pre-injury and post-injury
last year. He played only 29 games last year.
I think it was a hamstring injury he had
or a quad injury, something in the leg,
was unbelievable before it,
was not so great after it.
So, like,
you can kind of parse those 75 games
and not be really that sure
what you're getting from Bo Bichet.
But, I mean, the upside looks like a five-category contributor.
The upside looks like somebody who we might,
another short stuff who we might be drafting
in the first round as early as next year, like you said.
It's just, you're passing up some really good,
proven talent by taking him this high.
At his own position, by the way,
like Xander Bogart's is going 10 picks,
nine picks later on average.
Not going to provide the steals
we hope Bichette will provide, I guess.
So that's probably why.
But certainly a lot more,
you can feel a lot more confident
what you're getting from Zander Bokarts
and that it's going to be high end.
Yeah, Bichet, you mentioned the 75 games
that he's played a 307 batting average,
16 home runs, eight steals.
this doesn't work for every player, obviously,
but if you just double that,
a 150 game pace,
that is 32 home runs, 16 steals,
obviously over 300 batting average,
100 runs scored.
I mean, that is a legit five category contributor.
So we were saying similar things about Tatis last year
where we recognized the upside,
but again, I think you do have to bake
in some downside,
taking Bichette as early as the second round.
Potentially undervalued here, Scott,
in the second round range.
I'm skisking.
about Max Scherzer. I have him on my, I had him on my bus list 1.0, but there is certainly
an outcome where he just kind of goes back to being Max Scher and returns first
round value. I'm a little bit more skeptical of that, but if you're a believer, then he's undervalued
in this range. Yeah, I mean, this is about the range where I would draft him, so I, you know,
he's not going to be showing up in my overrated, underrated column. Let's put it that way. But yeah, sure.
there's a chance he, there's still a chance he could be the best pitcher in baseball.
I mean, you look at his game log from last year, double-digit strikeout efforts were,
he was still dominant in that category.
And I suspect that if he got four months, his ERA and WIP would have normalized to what we're used to seeing from Max Scherzer.
But he is getting older.
He's dealt with some injury issues the past couple years and better safe than sorry.
Yeah, the strikeout number is the swinging strike rate.
while a little bit lower for him, still really, really good compared to the rest of the league.
So I think the strikeouts will still be there.
But just some things that worry me, the underlying numbers regarding hard contact,
batting average against being up the past couple of years.
And of course, the age and injury risk with Scherzer has me fading him in that late second,
early third round range.
Speaking of the third round, picks 25 through 36.
This starts with Nolan Aronado and ends with Anthony Rendon.
so oddly enough, some third baseman there.
But I will say Aronado, since the trade,
there have been eight drafts over at the NFBC in February,
and his ADP during that time is 45.
This is Nolan Aronado.
So he has dropped to the fourth round of 12-team leagues.
The 45-80P is the same as Raphael Devers.
So that was the first conversation we had, Scott,
and I think it's spot on that people are basically choosing
between Devers and Aeronado.
You prefer Devers.
I still prefer Aeronado now with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Some potential overvalued players here in the third round.
Scott, Adelberto Mondesie only in points leagues.
It's just worth mentioning, you know, if people are using ADP as a guide,
points leagues are completely different than rhodo leagues,
especially when it comes to someone like Adelberto Mondesie.
And we spoke about Jose Bray a little bit earlier at 33,
where if he goes there, he is overvalued at the spot.
Yeah, I would say if you're using Fantasy Pros 80s,
to help with your head-to-head points
to help you gauge head-to-head points value?
I mean, Fantasy Pro's ADP is strictly doing
five-by-five categories.
That's where they're getting,
and specifically, Roto.
I don't think,
I don't think it's useless
if you want to do that,
but I think you're better served
just where they rank
within a position as opposed to where they rank
overall, and you have to account
for certain exceptions that you know
their categories, league values,
higher like an ad alberto mondecee uh like a starling marty um maybe you move somebody like carlos
santana up to uh to meet the the the need in points leagues but yeah if you're if you're just
looking at what order they rank in by each position and not the overall ranking like we're
looking at here i think it can still be useful for you in points leagues yeah and of course you can
use our head-to-head points league's rankings you can look back at at a mock draft which we
did. I think it was like two weeks ago now. So that is probably the best use of data for
head-to-head points leagues. Again, this ADP, more so for Roto, five-by-five heads-to-categories,
things like that. Undervalued in the third round, Scott, Alex Bregman and Rendon, I think we're
just going to continue to harp on this. We've talked about these two names already a lot, but, you know,
your argument for drafting these guys is, why would you take Manny Machado in the second round when
you can get Bregman or Rendon a round later? And I, and I would, you know, you're
will go as far as to say, I think these two guys
might be two of
the best values in drafts early on.
Yeah, I agree.
I go into every
draft expecting to get either
Bregman or Rendon
in
round three.
Sometimes...
I've gotten Rendon. I've gotten Rendon in round four before.
Yep.
Which, you know, I must have really liked what else I was getting
in round three to pass over him there
myself. But it's possible.
It's something I hope to do in every draft is get one of those guys at a discount.
Yep. And I've used that as a reason to maybe you don't want to start your draft with two starting pitchers,
but certainly at least taking one starting pitcher within the first two rounds,
just knowing that you can, it's a bankable asset having one of those third basement available
in the third round for you, according to ADP.
And the fourth round, Scott, picks 37 through 48.
This starts with Eloy Jimenez at the top of the round,
and it ends with Tyler Glass now at the back end.
two names that stood out for me in terms of potentially being overvalued.
And this is like, this is based on perception.
So this is the eye of the beholder here.
It depends how you like to draft.
If you want to attack catchers early, then J.T. Riyomuto, I mean, there's nothing wrong with it.
He is the best catcher.
There's no doubt about it.
I'm not doubting the talent.
I just think it's a little tough to invest a fourth round pick for a catcher given the position.
and they take a beating, foul balls,
and all these types of things are going on,
and he's getting a little bit older as well.
So, Real Muto at 41, stood out to me as overvalued,
and potentially Tyler Glassnow.
It's another one.
We're not doubting the talent.
I just really don't know what the usage is going to be,
and there's still an injury concern in the back of my mind
when you have to take him as early as the fourth round.
Yeah, so there's a drop-off at starting pitcher here
between Woodruff and Snell Glass-now,
where it's a guy who I trust the workload
or at least how deep he's going to go
in individual starts versus guys
I don't trust that for in Snell and Glass now.
So they
and I see some of the pictures
going after Snell and Glass now that I'd rather have.
So I think I would say both of them are overvalued
in this range just because you won
A's production from a pitcher you're drafting this early
and I think
I think they'll be handled too carefully
to really get that from them.
I agree with you on Real Muto.
He might be the single biggest advantage you could have at any position.
And so it's likely somebody's going to take him here because they want that advantage.
I don't care enough about that to take it this high.
I think it'd have to be more like round six before I started thinking about Real Muto as opposed to round four here.
I get it.
I just win 11 other teams are in the same boat at Catcher versus the one.
Like, I don't feel like I'm that disadvantaged by not having that guy.
And there are just things I need here more.
I actually want to say, though, I think Corey Seeger at 40th overall,
I think Corey Seeger is someone I'd prioritize over those two-third basemen.
We talked about last round, Bregman and Rendon.
Rendon.
Yeah, Rendon.
I think Corey Seeger is just, I think he's amazing.
I think he, I think you can make a case for him to be a first rounder,
already.
What he did last year was so convincing to me,
especially when you factor in that he
sustained similar production throughout the
postseason, a deep postseason run.
So, you know, you're adding that many games onto that
performance where he hit like Mike Trout, basically.
Doesn't steal any bases.
So, you know, I understand him getting pushed out
of the first round for that reason.
But fourth round, I think that's amazing value
for a guy who,
is going to be in contention for the NL MVP award, I'm sure.
Yeah, the comp that we threw around a lot last year,
and I think, well, I'll obviously stick with it with Corey Seeger,
is a Freddie Freeman light, where, you know, close to a 300 batting average,
really solid power numbers.
Not that he's going to hit like 40 home runs,
but, you know, 30 plus good counting stats in the middle of a really good lineup.
Scott's shaking his head, like, maybe it's possible.
Maybe Corey Seeger can be.
I think 40 home runs is possible for Corey Seeger.
saying that's what you should project him for, but I think it's within the realm of possibility.
A few other hitters, I think, undervalued in this range, Marcel Ozuna, one that we already
spoke about, just finishes the number one outfielder in both head-to-head points and in Roto
leagues. And another shortstop, and someone we brought up on Friday with Vlad Sedler as
my potential candidate to be this year's Christian Yelich, and that's Tim Anderson. I think we can
get over 300 batting average, potentially 25-25. I don't think that's out of the rest.
of possibility leading off for a really good White Sox lineup.
So some people are still a little hesitant on Tim Henderson.
Fourth round, I'm willing to invest and buy in, especially in Roto and Categories
leagues, points leagues.
Maybe you drop him a little bit just because he doesn't walk all that much.
In the fifth round, picks 49 through 60, starting with Starling, Marte, and an ending
with Liam Hendrix overvalued.
I got some New Yorkers here, Scott.
Aaron Judge at 52 and Pete Alonzo at 53.
Nothing to do with the players themselves.
I think that they're fine,
but you made the case earlier for Matt Olson being undervalued
because he's not dissimilar from Pete Alonzo.
And I will make the case for John Carlos Stanton versus Judge.
I really don't think that they're all that different of players.
And Stanton, you're getting 50 to 60 picks later,
although he's only Utsil only.
So I just think these two New York players
are overvalued for those reasons.
Yeah, I think
Stanton's injury history
is a little worse,
but
you know, kind of splitting hairs there,
I guess. I think that's more
an instance of all the DH-only guys
being, they are the most
underrated players.
All of them.
You're now, Verres, J.D. Martinez,
Stanton, you know,
we've talked about a lot, Nelson Cruz,
of course, Perenni,
perenni annually underrated
so yeah
Stan fits the bill I'm fine with judge here
I've taken him in the fifth round before
you know I'd take void over him
and Voight's two picks behind him here so
whatever
but I I don't see judges
being really overvalued here
I see Vladimir Guerrero
56th as just
very
glass half full still.
And we talked, I didn't really get that chance to bring up this point.
We were talking to Vlad Settler last week.
Vlad Sedler, that's right, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I do think it's unfair to say that drafting Vladimir Guerrero, 56 overall, is drafting him
at the extent of his upside, because the extent of his upside is top 12.
But you are drafting him for much more than he's delivered so far.
And given the quality of players going in the same range, I don't think there's
I don't think
it's justified.
I think you're passing up too much
by taking him here
for less than a coin flips chance
that he delivers on it.
Scott,
what do you think about Starling Marte
in this range?
The ADP last year for Marte
was 29,
and that's while he was with
the Arizona Diamondbacks,
and now we're getting
the ADP for Starling Marte
here at 49.
So he's going 20 picks later
he is one year older, he's 32 years old,
but especially in a roto context,
to be able to get someone like this
in the fifth round,
potential 2020 bet,
I feel like that's pretty valuable.
Yeah, I've never been a big starling Marte guy,
but I agree.
Usually we're seeing him going like round three,
maybe even round two in a roto league.
So it's kind of dependent on how many steals I have at this point,
whether I value him versus somebody like George Springer or Aaron Judge.
but it does seem
like that could be a good pick for you.
All right, if you are listening on the podcast side,
we're going to take a quick break.
If you're watching on video,
don't go anywhere because we're going to continue right now.
In the sixth round,
picks 61 through 72,
starting with Max Fried and ending with T. Oscar Hernandez.
A few names here, Scott,
that immediately stand out as overvalued,
potentially overvalued.
The small sample squad.
So it was guys that performed really well last year, but how much are we buying in?
Names like Trent Grisham, Max Fried, Randy Rosarena, Zach Plissack, and T. Oscar Hernandez.
Scott, of those five, which ones would you actually labeled overvalued?
Hernandez's Bust's pick 1A for me.
So I think he'd have to be the first one I name here too is being overvalued.
I just, I don't buy it at all.
The strikeout rate was way too high.
I think we just got his
He just
He always hit the ball hard
We just saw him see it extra hard
Over a small
Saw him hit it extra hard over a small sample
And I don't think that's something we could trust him
To sustain over a full 162 game season
Max Freed
I'm not going to go as far as to call him a bust
But I do think he's overvalued here
He's somebody who
Throughout last season we saw him pitch closer to five innings
Every start than six innings every start
than six innings every start.
And you know, you just compare his ERA to his X-FIP, his Sierra,
some regressions coming there too.
The strikeouts were way down compared to 2019.
And I think he's a good enough ground ball pitcher.
And just a fine pitcher overall.
I'm not saying he's not going to be an asset for you in fantasy.
But there are other pitchers I'd rather have who are going after him.
I do like Grisham.
I do like Plyssack.
It's a case-by-case basis thing.
I'm not saying,
I'm not saying all these guys are overvalued.
I don't think those two are so much
because I buy into what they did a little more.
But anytime you're relying on a small sample,
of course, you're taking some risk there
because weird things can happen over small samples
that are hard to detect,
even if you know what to look for.
Mm-hmm. Some potential undervalued players got that stood out to me in the sixth round.
Glabert Torres just, you know, what he's accomplished at his young age.
Just a really, really weird 2020 season.
And I saw a few people point this out that apparently when he showed up to spring training,
he was in fantastic shape.
And then throughout the pandemic, like most of us, he put on a few extra pounds and didn't
really show up in the best shape when they restarted things in the summer.
So that definitely could have affected Glaver Torres.
But again, expected to hit in the middle of.
a great lineup in a great ballpark.
We could see close to 30 home runs
and good counting stats again in the sixth round.
And Sonny Gray, Scott, someone,
admittedly, he's a little bit tougher for me to figure out
who is the real Sunny Gray.
But his first seven starts last year,
I mean, we were talking about this guy
like he was going to be a second or third round pick
entering 2021.
I mean, he had a 194 ERA, a 101 whip
in his first seven starts.
And then he dealt with this back injury.
He had, you know, two games where he got absolutely destroyed
after he returned from the injury wasn't great either.
So where are you at on Sunny Gray?
Totally confused, which is the story of his entire career.
Even going back to his Oakland days days,
he'd have a season where he'd be in contentioned for Zay Young
and then come back with a 569 ERA the next year.
That's the story of his career.
And like before the back injury,
before he had those starts where he got throttled,
the whiffs declined before that.
I'd started to worry about Sunny.
gray even before that happened.
So, you know, he said the Reds gave him the cheat code in 2019 when he dominated down
the stretch to get the most out of his slider, the swing and miss potential it has.
And it looked like he was right for about three starts last year.
And then it was back to the old sunny gray.
I think this is a year to fade him probably.
Anytime he's coming off a good year, fade him.
I don't think 65 overall is crazy high for him.
But again, there are some pitchers go like, well, like with Freed,
there are some pitchers going after Gray that I'd rather have.
One of those pitchers is going in the seventh round.
And the picks here, 73 through 84,
starting with Javier Baez and ending with Jose Burrios.
Scott, Carlos Carrasco is someone we have ranked inside of our top 20,
ahead of a lot of names you've already mentioned.
I have ranked ahead of Tyler Glass now,
and we're looking at potentially three different rounds,
three rounds of ADP difference.
So Carasco is someone that immediately stands out,
now with the New York Mets, of course,
as being undervalued in this range.
I have no idea what people,
why people are downgrading Carlos Carrasco like this.
Obviously, it made sense going into last year
he was coming off leukemia.
We weren't really sure how he was going to look after that battle.
But he was great.
He was great.
he got better as the year went on
and he was still capable of pitching deep into games
finished with a 291 ERA
had 10.9K per night.
He was as good as Carlos Carrasca's ever been
and now he's going to the NL
the NL that appears not to be using the DH in 2021
so that creates the potential
for even a lower ERA than we've always seen from Carasco
but really the biggest thing,
the biggest reason I rank Carasco so much higher than others seem to, given the ADP,
is he's somebody who's established as an innings eater already.
Somebody who's established year after year, he can go six, seven innings with consistency.
And after the year we just had, where nobody got to even 100 innings,
and we're worried about the workload every pitcher is going to take on.
It seems like somebody like that, somebody who's who's proving,
to take on a workload like that should be elevated.
So it seems like a really easy call.
I don't know why it's not reflected in the ADP
that Carasco needs to be borderline top 15 this year.
Yeah, I think it's probably just the age
and potential injury concerns
and obviously has dealt with cancer and leukemia
and he beat it, but you mentioned he looked like himself last year.
He looked like the Carasco of old.
So I'm with you there.
I think he's a tremendous value.
going in the seventh round.
Other potential undervalued players,
Util only.
We talk a lot about these guys, Nelson Cruz,
Yudan Alvarez,
and Javier Baez,
who is entering a contract year.
He had a down season in 2020,
but obviously has a proven track record,
so we would expect him to bounce back,
at least to a certain extent here in 2021.
Scott, some potential overvalued names.
Denelson Lemette, injury-related.
You know, he was awesome last year,
but I think you have to worry about his elbow.
how about Charlie Blackman is an interesting one, Scott,
because we didn't really talk about him with the Nolan Aronado trade,
but you would have to imagine the counting stats will come down a little bit for him.
And as great as he was, the first month last year,
he kind of came back down to Earth for the second month,
and he's getting up there in age.
So what do you think about Blackman in the seventh round?
I think it's fine.
I mean, this is a guy I was still saying probably should be drafted in the second round last year.
Turns out I was wrong about that.
everyone else was right
to downgrad him more than I was
but it's really the
like the power was just gone last year
he had six home runs and his 247
plate appearance as a 145
ISO that was his lowest since
since 2015
before he became a fantasy stud
basically and
considering he's 34 years old
you know maybe
that's an indication he's really on the decline
here
but I think just
for batting average for run scoring potential,
it's fine taking him where he's going.
His ADP is fine,
and maybe you get lucky,
and he bounces back with another 25-plus homers
and performs more like a third-fourth rounder.
So I think it's appropriate.
I think there's more of a chance
that's undervalued here than overvalued.
I'll quickly mention in the eighth round,
Ian Anderson, as much as I like the talent,
he is going ahead of some starting pitchers
that I think are a little bit more established.
so someone that
I worry a little bit
that he's being overvalued.
I don't know what the workload
is necessarily going to be as well.
Hitters, I mentioned hitters
that I really like in these middle rounds a lot.
Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez,
another Util-only bat,
and Alston Meadows spoke a bunch about him already
on previous podcast.
So big fan of those three hitters as well.
Scott, anyone else that you have
ready for the articles that you plan to write
as being undervalued, overvalued,
anyone that we might have missed
or outside the top 100
that you'd like to highlight?
So I think Jose Altuve is undervalued
98th overall.
He's just getting buried.
Everybody's just done with Jose Altuve
when, you know,
really it's that tiny sample of the season
that's fueling that.
And by the way,
he followed that awful regular season
with an amazing postseason performance.
So he's only 30 years old.
I think 98th overall for a guy who root for like close to a decade, right, ranked as the number one second basement we've wanted in fantasy every year.
I think that's really selling them short.
The Gior Shella, he's going, let's see, 154th overall.
and you compare that to somebody like Chris Bryant,
who I don't have a lot of hope for anymore,
going 114th overall.
Urchella totally backed up his breakthrough 2019 in 2020.
So I have no doubts about him anymore.
He was one of the highest point-per-game averages at third base in 2020.
Granted, it was a position where there were a lot of underachievers,
but Urchella, there's really no reason to wonder about him anymore.
I think going to least,
little deeper, Andres Jimenez is being overvalued.
One ninety-third overall.
It's not so bad, but I think people are imagining he's this 30 steals guy.
And I think, I think 20 to 25 is probably a more appropriate expectation.
Given the personnel Cleveland has right now,
and it's not even clear Jimenez is going to be an everyday player.
and he's going to provide almost nothing in terms of power.
So I think that's,
I think that's overrating him a little bit.
Alec Bohm was another one I wanted to mention,
who I liked the skill set of,
but 108 overall,
I mean,
going 50 picks ahead of Gior,
Shella,
that combination of overrated,
underrated.
Like,
Boam hits six home runs in like 150 at bats last year.
So I,
it's not even clear he's going to be
a 20 homer guy at a position where you really need him to be.
And, you know, I did the Urchella comparison.
I think Cabrion Hayes' upside is a lot higher.
I think Cabrian Hayes is probably going to contribute some steals in a way Bome won't.
And power expectations, batting average expectations,
I'd put them at least on equal footing.
And Cabrion Hayes is going to 150th compared to Bomes 108.
So I don't know why Bome is getting elevated so much.
I think he's good.
I think those other players are good too.
And I think they deserve to be about on equal footing in ADP
as opposed to this four or five round difference.
Keep an eye out for Scott's articles regarding this.
He's going to have overvalued and undervalued players based on ADP
coming out this week.
So you can find that CBSports.com slash fantasy.
I did want to wrap up with some questions here, Scott.
Admittedly, it's going to be harder the next couple of weeks to get to people's questions
because during our position previews, those are jam-packed.
We're going to try to get to as many players, deep dive some guys.
give you sleepers, breakouts, and bus at every single position.
So it will be harder to answer questions on those podcasts.
So we'll get to some of your questions starting right now.
This one's from Steve in Northeast Connecticut.
This was an Apple podcast review.
He says that I play in a 13 by 13 head-to-head one-win categories league.
So all he has to do is win, you know, the majority.
Seven of the 13. Oh, no, there's 26 categories.
Right.
So he has to win 14 out of 26.
and he will earn a win in his head to head categories league.
Obviously a bunch of extra categories here,
but things that are centered around total bases
plus walks and strikeouts for hitters
and then for pitchers,
they add complete games and no hitters,
which please don't do this.
I mean, it is so archaic in baseball right now.
Like, how many of these are you going to get throughout the course?
This is a category.
How many of these are you going to get
throughout the course of the season?
It's like playing with triple doubles
in a fantasy basketball league.
It's just very weird.
The question basically is, in a league like this with so many categories, Scott,
what would your strategy be?
Would it change or you're just trying to go for like an all-around balance?
Well, I imagine with this many categories, there's a lot of redundancies.
Clearly, there are some categories that will almost never come into play.
So it's kind of impossible to strategize for them.
I would say, I wouldn't overthink it.
I would probably lean more toward points league rankings versus categories leagues,
which are really just for five by five categories leagues,
since there will be some contributions that are factored into points leagues
that aren't factored into those five by five categories leagues.
But I wouldn't turn the rankings upside down trying to
trying to make it specifically tailored for this.
This next one's from R-Tomp 242.
My top five pitchers are
Garrett Cole, Blake Snell, Clayton Kirshaw,
Carlos Carrasco, and Sandy Alcansara.
My hitters are by far the best in the league,
so I won't name them all here.
What pitchers are you guys looking to target?
It doesn't have to be sleepers or late-round value picks,
just in general, which guys will you have the most shares
of this season, Scott, among pitchers?
Oh, that's a difficult question.
Well, maybe Carrasco,
given how far ahead of him I am
versus the consensus,
though I don't think our mock drafts
I've gotten that much of him.
Junjun Riu, I feel like,
never gets enough credit.
Zach Plesack.
You know, Junjian Riu, over the last three years,
he has the second lowest DRA
to Jacob de Grom,
among all qualifying pitchers.
That's over the last three years.
Fromber Valdez.
I like a lot,
first compared to the consensus,
and I love getting him as like my number five guy.
Where does he typically go?
Fromber Valdez?
In 96, on average.
Those would probably be the main guys.
You know, the early round pitchers,
you know, it's really just going to depend on where I'm drafting.
It's going to be kind of luck-of-the-draw thing,
so I don't think I don't think I can point to anyone there
who I'm going to have more than everyone else will.
it seems like 6thosanchez and Sandy Alcantara both
tend to fall a lot
I'm not really sure why I guess because they're not
they don't they project for less than a strike out per inning
but I think
I think they excel in every other way a pitcher can
specifically how deep they pitch into games
so I tend to be kind of high on them compared to the
consensus nice yeah Carasco stands out to me
I have a bunch of shares already.
Excited about him.
Chris Paddock,
someone that I do like
that's going typically in round 7 through 9.
I get him as my SP3 or my SP4 usually.
Joe Musgrove, you know,
if you can get him as like your SP5
in the double-digit rounds,
we talk a lot about that I am still
pretty excited about as well.
Mike Soroka, pay attention to the news.
He's coming back from a torn Achilles.
But things have been positive thus far
so you can get.
at him at a discount.
Tyler Malley is one of my favorite sleepers
that I target quite consistently.
And then if you're playing in a points league,
just like Dallas Keiko,
Marcus Schroeman, Marco Gonzalez,
just these guys are viewed as boring.
They're going to go deep into starts.
They're going to give you innings.
Should give you solid ratios as well.
Maybe not many strikeouts.
But those are three that stand out to me
as undervalued names to pay attention to as well.
This one's from A.E. Norton.
I was undefeated last year,
and I get to pick where I want to draft this season.
In head-to-head points, any suggestions on what draft pick is the best?
Well, if you play in a points league, I think the lowest you can choose to pick
and trust that you'll get one of the big three starting pitchers is third.
Because they might go one, two, three in a points league.
I don't rank them that way, but they might.
If you don't really care whether you get a pitcher or a great hitter,
then I would say those three pitchers and you're adding on trout and bets
and Soto.
So if, I think those seven, those three,
or sorry, those six, those three pitchers,
Col de Grom and Bieber,
and those three hitters,
trout bets, and Soto are what you're really hoping
to get with your first pick
in a points league, one of those six.
So I would say sixth,
unless you have to have a pitcher, then third.
And you know your league better than we do,
A.E. Norton.
So if people don't take pitching as early,
I would just take the furthest pick
that would ensure I would get one of the big three starting pitchers.
So you know your league better than we do,
but I would ideally in a points league,
one of Bieber de Grom or Garicol,
who I do have ranked 1, 2, and 3 overall in that format.
This one's from Trenton Andrew 7.
Quanghan Kim, starting pitcher for the Cardinals.
Had a fantastic year last year.
This year, I'm still snagging him super late in drafts
normally as my sixth, seventh, or even eighth starter.
Am I missing something?
was last year a mirage, and is he really not very good?
Or am I still getting good value taking him in the later rounds for Kim?
The ADP is 228.
He is the 70th starting pitcher off the board.
A 162 ERA, Scott, but that comes with a 452 X-Fit.
What are some expectations for Quang Heung Kim?
Yeah, I don't trust Quang Heung Kim.
I'd ever trusted him last year when he kept churning out good start after good start.
I expected it to all come crashing down at some point.
It never did, but that doesn't mean it never will,
especially considering how short last season was.
Even in terms of XERA, which takes into account hard contact in a way X-FIP and Sierra won it,
and I don't think it's as predictive as X-FIP,
but, you know, if you wanted to say it was, X-ERA was still 381 versus 162
for a non-strikeout pitcher.
I mean, that sounds like more of a late-round guy.
I don't have them in the draftable range.
at all because the strikeout potential is so poor,
and it's not like he's this extreme groundball pitcher to make up for it.
So, yeah, I am not backing Kwongyang Kim as somebody I want in fantasy.
All right, we're going to wrap there.
He is Scott. I am Frank DeGo off for listening and watching fantasy baseball today.
We'll be back again tomorrow, back again on Tuesday with starting our position previews.
We'll see you then. Bye-bye.
