Fantasy Baseball Today - ADP Combos! SP Rankings for Dynasty Leagues (06/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 17, 2020

Today on the show we're looking at ADP combos for redraft leagues and SP rankings in dynasty but first, what's the latest in the days of our baseball lives? Onto our ADP combos, who would you rather h...ave between Gerrit Cole/Austin Meadows and Mookie Betts/Luis Castillo (4:16)? ... Is Austin Meadows undervalued (11:04)? ... Next up we have Patrick Corbin/Nelson Cruz vs. Yordan Alvarez/Trevor Bauer (13:00). The bully Adam said it was too easy! ... Things get a little tougher with Realmuto/Gallen vs. Chris Paddack/Mitch Garver (15:13)? Do the guys want the better catchers or the (presumed) better starting pitcher? ... We interrupt our ADP combos for some breaking news (16:08). Baseball is getting close! ... In a points league, would you rather Bieber/Donaldson or Rendon/Sonny Gray (22:42)? How high should Sonny Gray be ranked? ... Our last combo is Semien/Giles vs. Corey Seager/Roberto Osuna (27:20)? Would Adam really take Seager over Semien? ... Taking a look at Scott White's dynasty SP rankings, is Gallen too low at 20 (36:52)? ... Moving on to the Top-10, should Jacob deGrom be higher than five (46:15)?. What should your SP philosophy be in dynasty leagues? ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our new YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyCfkdUcqL9UnNpGfkF039Q 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, this is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Starting point is 00:00:24 What's the latest in the days of our baseball lives? Well, we're about to tell you. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Stanfield, Adam Azer, Chris Towers and Scott White here on a hump day, June 17th. And I want to jump right in with both feet. Right before we started the show, we got some breaking news. Sound the alarms, John Heyman tweeted, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and Player Union Chief
Starting point is 00:00:46 Tony Clark had what's being called as a productive meeting. Face to Face in Arizona meeting was called at Manfred's request. Ooh, face to face. In Arizona, no less. I hope they were wearing masks. Me too. Is that our biggest takeaway? Honestly, I wouldn't blame you if it was. Just why after this many weeks had they not already met in face-to-face?
Starting point is 00:01:17 I mean, is it implying that they haven't? Well, the answer to that question is that the Major League Baseball team owners want a short season. that's just they've like that's that's that's long and short of it that's not let's not uh again if if they have to play pay fully prorated salaries I think they were hoping that they wouldn't have to
Starting point is 00:01:42 and right but this was always gone right this was always their like this was their kind of trump card uh to make sure that they didn't have to pay more than X number of games was because they uh they didn't want to and so they would either get a long or schedule with less pay, you know, or get a shorter schedule. I think they want to pay 57 games no matter how many games aren't played.
Starting point is 00:02:08 And so whether it's 57 games that are played or 80 games that are played or 110, we could have had all of those. Now, not so much. So is Manfred going rogue here? Is he departing from the owners a little bit? I read something from Ken Rosenthal this morning that, I don't know. It wasn't, it was kind of, it was kind of hard to tell how much reporting was in the actual column because it was almost like he was writing, like, omnisciently about what's going on in Rob Manfred's head.
Starting point is 00:02:43 But he seemed to indicate Rob Manfred is finally realizing he's going to have to, he's going to have to, you know, not just do what his bosses want. Either way, it's probably not going to be a great ending for Rob Manfred. I think that's probably the route that we're going down here. But, hey, we've updated you on everything that's happened so far to this point. Every proposal, every leaked rumor. So why stop now? We'll continue to give you any news, breaking news, tweets, whatever is coming out regarding this situation.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Seems positive, but like we say every day, we've said that before. Today on the show, we are going to give you a little bit of everything, some redraft, some dynasty, we have some ADP combos. We're going to look at Scott's top 100 starting pitcher ranks for Dynasty leagues. Before that, just want to make sure everyone's all right. Everything going well, fellas? How you doing? Good. I'm stressed. One of your ADP combo questions is really bothering me.
Starting point is 00:03:47 I don't know how I feel. It's very tough. They all really bother me. I thought they were all really tough. I have a general rule of thumb that I use to answer these, and I'll tell you when we get to them. But one of them in particular involved catchers, and I'm just sweating it out.
Starting point is 00:04:04 Can't figure out how I feel about it. I probably got another half hour to figure it out. All right, well, let's jump right in. Maybe you don't have as much time as you thought. Oh, we're starting with that. Okay. Yeah, we're going right into ADP combo. So get ready.
Starting point is 00:04:15 Here we go. Would you rather have in a head-to-head points league? you have the fifth or sixth overall pick Garrett Cole and Austin Meadows so first and a fourth round pick or Mookie Betz and Luis Castillo so either way you get one starting pitcher one outfielder
Starting point is 00:04:33 what do you guys think? First up I would just like to say Piazza Rio Pretzel is the number one ADP among combos and for me given the you know the research that we talked about yesterday I think the answer kind of has to be
Starting point is 00:04:51 Garrett Cole and Austin Meadows. Now I'm Googling best combos. It doesn't trouble you that you're eating pizza-flavored paste. Comboes are, I mean, I go on this ran every time we do ADB combos. Combos are one of the worst snacks ever created. When was the last time, you have not had a combo in 10 years. I have a bag of combos in the kitchen right now.
Starting point is 00:05:13 I eat combos regularly at them. I really enjoy them. I was not expecting that. You are expecting, like, of all the dirtbag food opinions that I've had, that's, you're shocked that I like combos. I'm not surprised that you like them. I'm surprised that you actually eat them because I didn't think anybody still ate them. I don't even see them. I don't see them on shelves anywhere. In fairness, I'm going on a tiny road trip this weekend. And that's my road, that's my driving snack when we're on a long drive. Okay. They're gross.
Starting point is 00:05:41 You can find the convenience stores, right? You can find like everything. You can find zero bars in convenience stores. Watch a McCallet. Watcher McCallet is. That's terrific. Great, yeah, great. Top five candy bar. We need to see more of it. Take five is the best candy. Nah. Oh, take five is really good.
Starting point is 00:05:56 Big fan there, Adam, like that. Big fan of any salty, sweet combinations. While we're at it, nut-rageous, if you've ever had it, is a great candy bar as well. Reese's Fast Break. Fast Break's very good. Combos are good, man.
Starting point is 00:06:07 They're kind of gross, but they are good. They're disgusting. They're gross. You don't want to think about them too hard. A lot of snack. But you just eat them, right? Yeah. I mean, you know, like, think about it.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Think about a jelly bean. I don't need those either. Think about raisins. Flavored sugar gel coated in other flavored sugar. All right, we're already off the rails. Raisins are disgusting. I'll take care of Cole and Austin Meadows also, Frank.
Starting point is 00:06:33 You know, I did the math in case anyone's interested. If you use points per game last year, Cole and Meadows destroy bets and Castillo. Now, that's based on the hitters playing 155 games and the pitcher's making 32. starts. Cool side with, yeah.
Starting point is 00:06:50 Was Meadows worse than Betts last year? Yeah, half a point per game, bet worse. Okay. But if you use Betz and Cole in 2018, but stick with Castillo and Meadows in 2019, which I kind of think is fair, to be honest. I'm not going to use Castillo and Meadows in 2018.
Starting point is 00:07:08 Nobody's drafting them based on what they did in 2018. But if you go with Moogie Betts and Cole in 8 in 2018 and Meadows and Castillo in 2019, the bet side actually wins big because Mookie Betts averaged 4.7 points per game and Garrett Cole and he averaged four points per game in 2019. Garrett Cole, he was great both years, but last year he probably was like too good to be true, 22.5 points per game.
Starting point is 00:07:32 The year before he was the number seven starter in fantasy and he averaged 18.8 points per game. He didn't have quite as many innings as the other guys up there. But I'm still going to take the Cole and Meadows side. I think it probably makes more sense to compare 2019 to 2018 bets. Both career. Both were,
Starting point is 00:07:50 okay, that's a good point. Both were like the best version of the best. But I, yeah, I think it's Colan Meadows. And for me, it's because,
Starting point is 00:07:58 you know, the hitters maintain their value further down the draft board. You know, that's basically the way I look at it is a fourth round hitter historically has been a better investment than a fourth round pitcher,
Starting point is 00:08:10 whereas a first round pitcher has generally been roughly equivalent to a first round hitter. I feel like you guys aren't pained enough doing this because I have, you know, my head says, as somebody listening to my own advice, it should be Betts and Castillo. And yet, and yet, I feel kind of the same way you guys do. Like I, my gut says Cole and Meadows. And if that's true, if you're telling me that if I take Cole ahead of Betts in round one,
Starting point is 00:08:45 I'm still going to be able to get Meadows in round four. That probably means I need to take a whole ahead of bets in round one, right? Is that what this ADP combo is saying, Frank? I would say especially in a head-to-head points league, I think that makes sense, because we do put more stress on the elite starting pitcher in that format. Well, I guess this year in general we are stressing, or at least I was, elite starting pitching.
Starting point is 00:09:13 but I would say in a head-to-head points format yeah I mean that would make sense to take if you know that you can get Meadows in the fourth why wouldn't you take Garrett Cole in the first round over Mookie Betz? I'll also add I mean with Mookie Betts I mean he was he had a down year last year and he averaged four fantasy points per game
Starting point is 00:09:31 he was tied for the seventh best hitter in baseball like right that's a down year for Mookie Betz he's a lot better Betts best and even a down year for him like you said it's still a lot better than Meadows presumably his best. So maybe I'm not giving enough credit to the gap there and maybe I should just trust my head rather than my gut.
Starting point is 00:09:53 I mean, I rank them right next to each other, bets and Cole. I think I bet's fourth and Cole fifth in a points league. Who do you rank higher, Meadows or Castillo? I rank Castillo higher. I'm sure I do. However, like if you were, if maybe it's just because of the way,
Starting point is 00:10:15 I feel about Castillo in particular. I feel like he's a little riskier. And if you put like Patrick Corbin in his place. But maybe Patrick Corbyn't would it be possible, according to ADP? I don't know. Would it be possible? Does anybody happy to know? So I'm looking at Scott's head-to-head top 300,
Starting point is 00:10:31 and Luis Castillo is 27th, and Austin Meadows is 52nd. So that's a pretty big disparity. Yeah. Frank, I got to tell you something. What do you got? Before you pose this question, Cole and Meadows versus Bets and Castillo.
Starting point is 00:10:47 I probably would have said I want bets ahead of Cole and I want Castillo ahead of Meadows. So how on earth am I going to take the Cole Meadows combo over? Exactly. But I don't get it. I think I have to move Cole ahead of bets. I think I'm, I think Garrett Cole is my third player in off the board in points leagues. I think for me it comes down to and we haven't talked about them enough, at least while I've been here, is Austin Meadows.
Starting point is 00:11:11 I mean, why don't we talk about him more? 3.5 fantasy points per game last year. That was the same amount as Bryce Harper, yet he goes 20 picks later. He really just had one bad month. It was June, where he was kind of banged up that month. He did not hit a home run.
Starting point is 00:11:25 He had a 573 OPS. The first two months, he had an OPS over 1,100. From July through September, he had 21 home runs with a 9.59 OPS. But why are we not talking about Austin Meadows more than we are? It's a small sample size. It's a whole season.
Starting point is 00:11:42 It's a one season sample size, but it's a huge outlier for his career. So he was the guy who had pedigree, but not production. You know, especially, you know, if I'm remembering correctly and correct me if I'm wrong. But, you know, especially once he got to double A and AAA, his production really wasn't very good. He was someone we were talking about, you know, when he was getting called up last year as a. Two years ago, yeah. Yeah, yeah, 2018. as someone who, you know, we weren't sure if he was going to be an impact fantasy player.
Starting point is 00:12:16 We weren't sure he was going to be a fantasy starter based on what he had done in the high minors. And so, you know, I think there is still some question about how sure we should be that he's a high level player. But, you know, based on what he did last season, based on his age, there is a ton to like about him. It's, that's what, you know, that's why I'm pretty confident. and going with Colin Meadows, and it doesn't really bother me that much because I, you know, I do think Meadows in either points, but especially Roto, you know, does have the potential to be a second round caliber player. I mean, there's a chance that we've seen this before where players just become better once they get to the big leagues, right? Like, Francisco Lindorra stands out in my mind,
Starting point is 00:13:01 was not really regarded as a great offensive player. And then he was. So it seems like we're all pretty much on board with Colin Austin Meadows across the board. Let's move on to the next one. rather have Patrick Corbin and Nelson Cruz. This is your little utility debate here. Patrick Corbyn and Nelson Cruz or Yerdon Alvarez and Trevor Bauer in a roto league. This one actually isn't even a debate for me. Easiest one, right? Yeah, this one's Corbyn and crew. Like, the most likely outcome is Cruz is better than Alvarez, right? I want to go that far, but, you know, if you're just trusting in track record, I guess. I can understand why you'd Cruz was better last year, right?
Starting point is 00:13:45 If someone has that... I don't know. Just based on OPS? I'm pretty sure Cruz was like the seventh best hitter in fantasy last year in Roto at least. Well, Alvarez didn't play nearly as much, right? He played 87. Okay, OPS, Alvarez was 1067.
Starting point is 00:14:02 I don't think Cruz was quite there, but man, it was close. Let's see. I think Cruz was 1,000 on the dot? 1031. 1031. It was... a career high season for Cruz at age 38.
Starting point is 00:14:16 Sure. So it's hard to take serious. Like I have an easier time taking what Yorden Alvarez did seriously than I do even Cruz. So per game, in Roto, you know, put them on the same amount of playing time.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Cruz was the eighth best hitter in fantasy. Alvarez was the 12th best. Yeah, this is an easy one. The Corbin, to me, is such an upgrade from Bauer. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:14:38 that's really what it comes down to. Like Cruz, Alvarez, more or less equal. I do like Alvarez more. But Corbyn in terms of trustworthiness is so far ahead of valor. That's what it is. That just highlights how good of a value Nelson Cruz is. That's exactly what I wanted to do. And I will never stop doing it.
Starting point is 00:14:57 Good for you, Frank. Until he retires. Even if you had to give us the easiest 80B combo ever to make your point. Good job. Hey man, I wanted to pair similar players up against each other. It makes sense. It was a good. Nelson Cruz and Yuron-Alvarez are that to me. All right. You teased it, Adam. You now get your wish,
Starting point is 00:15:16 and we'll start with you. Because I know that you have a very interesting answer to this question. Would you rather have J.T. Real Muto and Zach Gallen or Chris Paddock and Mitch Garver. He is struggling. I know you like Corbyn.
Starting point is 00:15:34 I don't know how you feel about these catchers, though. You mean Paddock? Oh, Paddock, yes. Excuse me. How do I feel about these catchers? J.T. Raubuto is better than what we saw last year. And I think Garver is worse than what we saw last year. But he was the best catcher on a per game basis by far last year.
Starting point is 00:15:52 I'm going to take Paddock and Garver barely. Yeah, I think the upside is higher for Paddock and Garver. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Breaking news. John Heyman just tweeted, breaking MLB in Players, Jr. closing in on an agreement to play the 2020 season via players. Deal expected to be for pro-rate of pay and include expanded playoffs.
Starting point is 00:16:17 As part of the pending agreement to play the 2020 season between MLB and the players union, the union has agreed to waive any grievance. Yeah. Wait, so Chris, who do you want? J.T. Real Muto and Nant. All right, that's actually... That's another easy one for me. Massive news here.
Starting point is 00:16:34 I don't think Chris Paddock's that much better than Zach Allen, and I think J2 RoMootta is a lot better than Mitch Garber. There's no... I haven't seen anything on. the amount of games so far. And there's a lot of people reporting this. It seems like John Heyman was the first one to report this news. MLB and Players Union are closing in on the agreement. Other people are confirming it now. Jeff Passon tweeted about it. Okay. Joel Sherman, there's not even a deal in principle between MLB and PA, but one involved person said with
Starting point is 00:17:02 Manfred Clark meeting face-to-face, the rhetoric portion of the program is over and the real negotiators and have begun. Uh, MLB just sent MLBPA a new proposal. There's no agreement, not even in principle. That's Bill Shaken of the Los Angeles Times. Doesn't mean there won't be on the two sides of talking, but no deal yet. So let's just, who would you rather have? Shane Bieber and Josh Allison. I mean, John Heyman is the most plugged-in reporter in Major League Baseball.
Starting point is 00:17:29 If he's not the most, he's one B to Ken Rosenthal. So, you know, I think... What about Jeff Passing? Yeah, he's up in. comer. Okay. All right. He is a friend-cover. No, it's a, yeah. Heyman's the only person right now saying an agreement has been reached, or closing in on an agreement to play
Starting point is 00:17:52 the 2020 season, which I guess nobody's refuting. Closing in on an agreement is not... It's vague language. Yeah. Yes. But this, yeah. I don't know that there's anything that we can actually do until we see more parameters based on the amount of games, you know, how serious is.
Starting point is 00:18:12 is because we're getting conflicting reports right now live while we're doing the podcast. So that is the breaking news. Baseball seems like it's happening. Baseball seems like it's happening, which is a complete 180 from where we were at Monday, where Rob Manfred was pretty much going back on his words, saying he didn't know if we were going to have a baseball season. So for those listening and watching on our Fantasy Baseball Today YouTube channel, the news is getting better.
Starting point is 00:18:37 We're getting closer. And if anything comes out while we are doing the show, then we will 100%. talk about it. But did everyone give their answer regarding this? J.C. Real Muto and Zach Gallen versus Chris Paddock and Mitch Garver? I feel like Paddock and Garver actually has more upside. And I think that's the one I'd prefer. I'd rather, I'd rather, if there's a position, I'd rather weaken myself at, take a bigger risk at its catcher versus starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:19:05 So I would prefer Paddock over Gallen for that reason. But like it's one of those situations where if you're not totally, like, I'm, I happen to see Garver is a great value where he goes. Can't be totally sure you're going to get him if the price is right on real Muto. So it doesn't necessarily mean I'm 100% passing up real Muto based on that answer. There's only so many catchers capable of doing what either of those guys are capable of doing. Yeah, for me, I just, I'm lower on Paddock than the consensus, I think. Or at the very least, I have more questions about whether he can truly be an ace.
Starting point is 00:19:39 It seems like a lot of people are just, like he is an ace. now and the ERA last season and the whip especially certainly suggest it but there are red flags in his profile that I think are sort of being overlooked and he's a two-pitch pitcher and that's a hard thing to be I find it interesting Chris that last year Chris Paddock was kind of everyone's breakout darling throughout the spring and now this year that's Zach Gallen aren't we kind of hoping that Zach Gallen does what Chris Paddock did last year? Zach Allen did what Chris Paddock did last year. He just didn't do it in as many innings at the major level.
Starting point is 00:20:20 But, you know, the difference between the two of them, you know, Gallen had a higher whip. Again, I'm presuming, correct me if I'm wrong, but Chris Paddock did have an elite whip. That was the-0.98. Yeah, that was the one thing he did exceptionally well last season. But the peripherals suggest that he may not be that good or that he may need improvements. And, you know, that lack of a, of a breaking ball, it does stand out to me, whereas Zach Allen, he might not have the, he may not have the ceiling that Chris Paddock does. But I also, you know, the comp I made when we were doing the best players for 2020 to 2030 or whatever was, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:04 I could see Zach Allen becoming a Zach Granky type of pitcher where, you know, he has that command of all four pitches. throw any of them at any time. He's a smart pitcher. And so I'm not convinced that there is that much of a difference if there is one at all between Zach Allen and Chris Paddock for 2020. And, you know, the hype around Chris Paddock this time last year was based on, had he thrown like 150 career earnings at that point? So he was very much, he was like the kind of the ultimate mystery box.
Starting point is 00:21:42 that we've ever seen. I expect more curb balls this year from him. I think it'll be a pretty good pitch for him. He was talking it up during the spring. I'm not surprised that a rookie pitcher had peripherals that said he's not as good as a 0.98 whip. Even if he had gone out and had a 370 ERA, I'd still be pretty excited about him. He is incredible control.
Starting point is 00:22:05 If he played in a bad ballpark, considering he gives up a lot of fly balls, I might back off a little bit, but he doesn't play in a bad ballpark. So I'm fine with it. I love Paddock. I think he's got the upside to be a first round pick. You know, I think he could be the next elite starting pitcher in baseball. I remember last year was June, July. People were talking about him being a top five pitcher in dynasty leagues for like years to come. And then, you know, everything kind of happened where he was bouncing back and forth between the minors and majors and slowed down a little bit.
Starting point is 00:22:39 But I think that's expected for, you know, most rookie star. Let's move on to the next one. Would you rather have, in a head-to-head points league, Shane Bieber and Josh Donaldson, or Anthony Rendon and Sunny Gray? Scott, I feel like this might be a little bit of an interesting one for you. Yeah, I love both of these pitchers, Bieber and Gray,
Starting point is 00:23:02 I think better than the consensus. So it... I'm going to... I'm going to say Rendon. And points especially. Yeah, points definitely makes it easy. I'm going to go Rendon and gray.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Rendon is, I mean, he has top five hitter potential in that format. And Donaldson, in order to Roto League, it'd be closer because Donaldson,
Starting point is 00:23:32 Donaldson has, is a high-end contributor there as well. And, you know, the plate discipline difference, what Rendon brings to the table there isn't reward. awarded the same in that format like it isn't a points league.
Starting point is 00:23:46 But yeah, I go Rendon and Gray. Adam, what do you think? Bieber and Donaldson versus Rendon and Sunny Gray in a headside points league. So I think that the only guy that feels like an absolute sure thing to me is Rendon, and that's why I'll take that side. I do like Bieber. I'm nervous about Gray, and then Donaldson. I think he's going to be really good when he plays.
Starting point is 00:24:08 But actually, Donaldson has been a pretty slow starter the last few years. Shorten season could be bad for him. But I'm just going to take the short thing. I'm just going to take Rendon. In a Roto League, I would probably go the other way and take the Bieber side. But in a points league, like Rendon could be one of the top five hitters
Starting point is 00:24:26 easily in points leagues. He's so good in that format. So I'll take them. Chris, I know that you're a little bit skeptical about Shane Bieber, at least based on some conversations we've had recently. Which way do you go? Yeah, I think of this group,
Starting point is 00:24:42 I'm higher, I think, on Sunny Gray than even Scott might be. I think what he did last season, you know, the stuff took a really big step forward and the pitch mix, especially. I think he learned a lot from his time with the Yankees that will continue to serve him well. So on a purning basis, like, I think Bieber's better, but I'm not sure it's that big of a gap. And Anthony Rendon, especially if we're talking about head-to-head points,
Starting point is 00:25:11 Anthony Rendon is an elite player. He probably should be a first rounder in a head-to-head points league. So this is another one that, you know, I think this is closer, but I'm not really agonizing it over it that much. I would rather have Rendon and Gray. I think Bieber, he's very good. And when things go right for him, he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball. And things went right for him last year.
Starting point is 00:25:38 I just think how hard he gets hit, you know, a four ERA wouldn't shot. me. Yeah, and, you know, talking about how hard he does get hit, he allows a lot of hard contact, based on the XERA, which is from Statcast, they measure what your expected ERA would be based on, you know, the level of contact that you give up. And I know that Shane Bieber's XERARA was very high. It was, like, close to four. So that is, that is fair.
Starting point is 00:26:09 That is a fair concern when it comes to Shane Bieber. Chris, I just want to figure out how high you would have Sunny Gray because, Scott has him SP21. I have him SP 23. Would you take him over Tyler Glass now? Yeah, Chris. I have more Sunny Gray on my teams than I do Tyler Glass. Maybe it's not fair to say I'm higher on him than Scott, given where Scott has him at 21st.
Starting point is 00:26:41 I am definitely, like, in ADP, he's going after Mike Siruk, a Corey Kluver, Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Bauer, Jose Berrios. Yeah, that is egregious. I would absolutely rather have him than basically any of those guys. I think you could make a case for Bauer on one end of the spectrum. You know, the upside is higher. And I think you can make a case for Berrios on the other end of the spectrum
Starting point is 00:27:05 because he is such an innings eater and because he is so reliable. But, you know, for me, Gray, the upside, what he showed last year, I think the type of pitcher he's become, it's going to be very valuable. All right, the last ADP combo we're going to get to here. Would you rather have Marcus Semyon and Ken Giles or Roberto Osuna and Corey Seeger? This one is in a roto league.
Starting point is 00:27:33 Adam, why don't you get a started? Easy one for me, Ozuna and Seeger. Suna and Seeger. Easy for me, Semyon and Giles. I'm never willing to pay up for the savings. guy. I mean, it would have to be, it would have, like maybe if it was Josh Hader instead of Ozuna, I could, I could have a little bit of a debate, but I mean, Ozuna's not, like, I'm not super confident. Ozuna's going to be better than Giles this year. And, and you know what, I can't
Starting point is 00:28:01 say with all assurance, Simeon's going to be better than Seeger, but based on demonstrated upside so far, I mean, Simeon's, Simeon has demonstrated a higher ceiling than Seeger. So, yeah, Simeon and Giles. If this was a points league, I think it might be closer. I do think Corey Sigur is a better points league player than he has a Roto player. Simeon is too, though. At least he walks and strikes out like he did last year. Yeah, I think you should expect some regression on both.
Starting point is 00:28:26 And I think what helps Simeon in Roto that doesn't help him in points all that much is, you know, even if he does regress, you could still see a 20 home or 15 steel pace season, which wouldn't be, you know, he wouldn't be, nearly as valuable as he was last season, but I think he does have that floor in Roto that he doesn't have in points. I can see an outcome where he's just not usable in points. And, you know, being Roto, like, I'm not sure Ken Giles will be worse than Roberto OZoon on a pruning basis. Saves are obviously super valuable in Roto, but, you know, I think they're more valuable in points, given that you get that, you know, seven points.
Starting point is 00:29:12 saves are almost all that matter for a closer in a points league when Roto they're going to be ratio help too Ken Giles should have more strikeouts Ken Giles I think he has a decent chance of a better ERA than Roberto Azuna where Azuna stands out is the team he pitches on and he is always elite in whip yeah yeah incredibly elite yeah and you know those matter but I think they matter
Starting point is 00:29:40 more in a points league. Yeah, you pointed out, Chris. I suspect that Corey Seeger is a better hitter than Marcus Simian, and we will see that this year. You pointed out, Chris, that it's entirely possible Ken Giles can have a lower ERA than Roberto Osuna. Well, he did last year. Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to say.
Starting point is 00:29:58 Giles was at 1.87, and Osuna was at 2.63. The difference, again, the whip for Osuna, 0.88, and Ken Giles was at 1.00, which is not a bad mark at all. good. It's very good. I think Jiles kind of has a bad rap for the meltdowns especially. Yeah, he kind of gave it to himself, Chris, you know?
Starting point is 00:30:18 Right. And I'm not saying it's unfair necessarily, but you know, when you talk about the bad version of Ken Jowell's, it really was like a handful of outings. I think Adam, didn't you say I was say right now, I think that was in 2018, yeah. He was just always bad in non-save appearances, right? In 2018, he had a 0.35 ERA in save situations. In non-save situations, he had a 9-12 ERA.
Starting point is 00:30:45 So I think they figured out. Let's just use it in save situations. And Ken Giles is really good. I'm very hesitant to buy into a 28-year-old breakout season for Marcus Simeon, who had been barely rosterable, my opinion. So I'm just, you know, and Ozuna is the safest. He might be the safest closer in baseball, considering maybe Yates,
Starting point is 00:31:12 but considering that we don't know. Yeah, I don't know about trades this year. In a normal year, yeah, I don't know what it would be like this year. But yeah, you're right. Ozuna might be the safest closer in baseball. Adam, would you rank Seeger ahead of Simeon if you just had straight up, like straight up in the rankings, if you had rankings.
Starting point is 00:31:30 Adam, as your lawyer, you don't have to answer that. You don't have rankings. I would, yeah, I would. Okay. So that makes it easy to understand why you take the Ozuna Seeger side. Yeah, I would take the Osuna and Seeger side too. It's very close, but I have that same thing written down right here, Adam, that you just said, Osuna, maybe the safest closer in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:31:53 One thing we didn't mention with Ken Jaws, we're talking him up a lot and kind of downplaying some of the more high profile concerns. Should be noted that at like three different times last season, it seemed like he was about to have Tommy John surgery. you know, there were all the, I think he had like two, there were a couple times he didn't go on the IL, but they were like, yeah, he can't throw right now, he's got an elbow strain, and it never got to that point. But he could be someone who, you know,
Starting point is 00:32:22 the first game of the season, like, you know, needs Tommy John surgery. And I do like Ken Giles a lot too. I haven't ranked as my six closers, so. Can I talk about something real quick? Because I've been thinking about this for last five minutes. The whole bets, Cole, the whole Betz Castillo Cole Meadows thing.
Starting point is 00:32:40 I feel like maybe the reason why I would take the Cole Meadows side over Betz Castillo, even though I individually might take bets and Castillo ahead of the other two, is because if I take bets over Cole, I still have an opportunity in the next round or the round after that to get a starting pitcher that I feel is not Garrett Cole, but a more like safe ace than Castillo, who I do love. But when I'm only talking about these two players
Starting point is 00:33:12 and not within the context of the rest of my team, then I'm going to favor Garrett Cole because he gives me that security blanket. But if I could take bets in round one and then maybe get Jack Flaherty in round two, you know, then I feel a little bit more secure. That makes sense. That's a good point.
Starting point is 00:33:28 And that's kind of the same point I was making talking about Real Muto and Garver. Is this exercise it guarantees you, get that second player, when in the process of a draft, you can't assume that's actually going to be an option for you when that pick comes up. So if you're particularly high on Meadows or you're particularly high on Garver, in my case, and you say, okay, if I knew I was going to get him, then I would go ahead and take the ace pitcher here in round one. But obviously in a draft scenario or an auction scenario or whatever, you don't know that. That's ultimately what made me go with
Starting point is 00:33:59 is just that historical data that shows that those fourth round hitters have been better investments than the pitchers. It just, you know, outside of that, if you can get that ace, I think it's worth it if the next, you know, even if it's not Austin Meadows, even if it's just someone else in that range, I don't have it pulled up, but I'm sure that there are several fine hitters. Aaron Judge. Yeah, I mean, Jordan Alvarez, Cattel Marte, George Springer,
Starting point is 00:34:28 Charlie Blackman, all those guys could go in that range with Austin Meadows. Any of the, pick any one of those guys. And I would rather have Cole plus them
Starting point is 00:34:38 than bets plus you know, even, you know, well, okay, the next pitcher going off the board after. It's corporate.
Starting point is 00:34:51 Well, the next two pitchers going after the, sorry, Castillo's ADP is 43.6 right now. The next, two pitches are Aaron Nola, who
Starting point is 00:35:00 I'm not sure I'd rather have than Castillo. I think that was kind of iffy, but then there's the pitcher Trump card. If you had made it, Charlie Morton. If you had made it, Charlie Morton. That one would have been, that definitely would have been a tougher decision for me.
Starting point is 00:35:16 Or as Frank would say, Morton. Morton. You got to pronounce the T, guys. All right. Let's take a quick break. First, I do want to remind everyone to sign up for our fantasy baseball today newsletter, CBSports.com, slash newsletter slash fantasy baseball today. It gets email to your inbox.
Starting point is 00:35:33 You get our latest articles, draft results. We'll start throwing some of our YouTube stuff in there so you can subscribe to the channel there as well. So make sure you sign up for our fantasy baseball today newsletter. All right. When we come back, we will talk about some of Scott's top 100 starting pitcher ranks in dynasty leagues. We'll do that right here on fantasy baseball today.
Starting point is 00:35:53 All right, we're back here on fantasy baseball today. Some of Scott White's positional dynasty ranks. I know, Scott, you're working hard on these rankings, and you have your top 100 starting pitchers that are now published on CBSports.com. And I found it very interesting. What I like most about what you did is that you have this point system that you set up,
Starting point is 00:36:11 where you basically give a 1-5 point value based on present value for a pitcher, their future value, and your confidence rating in said pitchers. So just give everyone kind of a look behind the, I don't even know what I'm look behind, peel back behind the curtain and let them know
Starting point is 00:36:32 about your process in doing this. Do you just rank them based on you know, adding all those points up and whoever has the most, you rank the highest? Yeah, yeah. It's a problem. I mean, it's not a super scientific process.
Starting point is 00:36:46 Obviously, all of those ratings are just my perception of things. But it helps keep me honest and it gives something interesting to look at something else to debate beyond just the pure ranking itself. But yeah, I add those three numbers up, present value, future value, which is both what his peak looks like and how much peak he has left.
Starting point is 00:37:10 So it's kind of cramming two ideas into there, but I didn't think it made sense to make a fourth category necessarily. So present value, future value, and confidence rating. I add them up and they're basically ranked by what that ends up being. Now, there ends up being a lot more that add up to like seven and eight than add up to 11 and 12. So certainly once you get to the back half of the top 100 here, there's a lot of behind the scenes, you know, a lot of subjectivity that's coming into play. That's not even showing up in those three ratings because they're all tied. To a degree, I elevate the younger guy when they're tied, but even that's not, you know, universally true.
Starting point is 00:37:53 So, yeah, it keeps me honest, and it just makes for a lot more to discuss, I think. So let's take a closer look at the top 20. Again, you can find the whole list of 100 at CBSports.com, but the top 20 and working, you know, towards number one. Number 20, you have Zach Gallen, then McKenzie Gore, Jesus Lozardo, Shohei Otani, Jose Berrios. That is 20 through 16. anything stand out to anybody there you know what I'm going to say is that count's too low
Starting point is 00:38:28 too low I don't see how he's a three present value okay um like that like nothing nothing against you Scott
Starting point is 00:38:40 no that's fine would it help would it help knowing jack flaredes a four present value so this is kind of this is the problem with any uh sequelae
Starting point is 00:38:53 or there's a term for numbers that I can't think of of but anytime you're just doing things one, two, three, four, five uh, there's a lack of nuance in there. Like you might believe he's more like a three point four. I don't know. Um, but yeah, like that because like the three kind of suggests, I guess I don't, what's the scale? Like is three. Three is must start.
Starting point is 00:39:21 Probably. No, three's pretty high. Um, three is probably, I would expect them to start every week for your team this year. Yeah, because you have... Two is, two is they're going to be contributing this year, but I can't for sure say they're going to make a fantasy impact. And then one is they're probably not contributing this year. Five, five is reserved for just Garrett Cole, Walker Bueller, Shane Bieber, Jacob de Grom, Mike Clevenger.
Starting point is 00:39:50 And those are the only ones, uh, no, wait, not true. some old things. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander. That's it. Those are the only ones who get a five for present value. So three is pretty good in that context. The thing I struggle with is some other threes are like Jake Oterese, David Price, and present value. Mike Fultenevitz, Shamanai. I just think for the most part, there's a pretty significant gap in my eyes on Zach Gallen. And so...
Starting point is 00:40:19 Well, you've got to look at confidence rating, too. Zach Gallen has a much higher confidence rating. Yeah, right, but I just mean, you know, the present value is a separate category. And I guess I think he should be, he should have more value currently than those guys. But I understand, you know, that given the system is what it is, it's sort of like a three makes sense. I think from, if I was going to pick one thing apart here, you have gallon 20, you have McKenzie Gore 19. If we don't know that McKenzie Gore is going to pitch this year, maybe he will.
Starting point is 00:40:58 We don't know how much impact he'll have. Odds are he won't be a huge fantasy contributor. Why not put Luis Severino there? Because Severino is like 31, I think. You know, so why? Why not Severino over McKenzie Gore and dynasty rankings? Well, he has to come back from Tommy John surgery. Yeah, I know.
Starting point is 00:41:20 But we're not, we're comparing him to a player that's, that might make little to no impact this year anyway in McKenzie Gore. Yeah. Maybe the question is why is Gore this high? I think, A, like for sure, Severino's not going to contribute this year. Gore might. Yeah. B, I'm not totally sure.
Starting point is 00:41:50 I mean, I'm not totally sure of Gore's ceiling either, but I'm not really sure who Severino is going to be when he gets back. I don't know that he's going to be Tsai Young level good because, you know, he started to fade his last year, and maybe some of that was attributable to the elbow. But he really struggled there. Yeah, he really struggled there
Starting point is 00:42:12 in that half season. So I don't really know. On the other hand. Part of it, go ahead, Chris. We've never seen McKenzie Gorthrow. Right. The amount of innings that could potentially, eventually lead to a second half fade.
Starting point is 00:42:31 And part of it's kind of the same process I use in my season rankings. I've done enough dynasty startup mucks to know Gore goes well ahead of Severino. So if I put Severino ahead of Gore,
Starting point is 00:42:45 I'm telling somebody to reach for Severino. I'm telling somebody not to even make an attempt for Gore at that point. So it's kind of I'm kind of playing to the result a little bit, but I don't think in a way that's, I think in a way that's beneficial rather than harmful. The rest of the 20 through 11 crew from 15 on, you have Mike Soroka, Tyler Glassnow,
Starting point is 00:43:10 Patrick Corbyn, Steven Strassberg, Blake Snell. I would say the name that stands out here is Mike Soroka, but I appreciate that you remaining consistent, Scott, because when we did the projecting the all-decade team for, you know, the 20-20s, you had Mike Soroka in the mix. So you are clearly very excited about him in Dynasty League. So it makes sense to rank him this high. I mean, he's a 22-year-old who was in the running for Cy Young. And I understand just looking at the raw numbers
Starting point is 00:43:43 as you put limits on his upside because the strikeouts weren't there. And I'm not in these rankings even really giving him credit for having strikeout upside, which I mention every time we talk about him. but I just think if you're if you're if you're if you're if you look at how stable he was throughout his minor league career and you look at how stable he's been so far as a major leaguer and he's doing that he did that to this point as a 21 year old like always so young for his level no matter what it was and he just gets out with that consistency and you know lead ground ball rate elite walk rate I don't know why I don't know why from a long
Starting point is 00:44:23 term perspective, you would be down on him. I get it more from, you know, a single season perspective. Like, I just want these higher up to that side guys instead. But in Dynasty, you're, you're planning for the long haul, of course. And he just seems to have such a stable profile and a stable track record that, yeah, I think everybody should be excited about him in Dynasty. He does have some history of, like a shoulder injury, right? Yeah, he has. Yeah, he has. Do you, how much do you factor that in. I think it'd be hard pressed to find somebody who doesn't have a history of something. Yep. Look at one spot ahead of him, Tyler Glass now, right? Well, yeah, I was going to say, like, you'd really rather have Mike Soroka in a Dynasty League than Hayes of Lazzardo?
Starting point is 00:45:07 And then it's like, oh, yeah, that guy has like literally never been able to stay healthy. Yeah. Yeah. So all fair points. Let's move on to the top 10. Name we already mentioned today multiple times. Chris Paddock at number 10, Arindola, Luis Castile. Lucas Gialito, Mike Clevenger, Jacob deGrom at 5, Jack Flaherty at 4, Shane Bieber at 3, Walker Bueller at 2,
Starting point is 00:45:33 Garrett Cole is number 1. I know Jacob de Grom is 32 years old. Does he deserve to be, you know, at the back end of the top 5? Well, isn't Garrett Cole 31? He's 29. He's 29? Okay, that's a big difference then.
Starting point is 00:45:51 Yeah, big difference. It's, ageing curves are changing for elite pitchers. It's something I saw Jeff Zimmerman talking about on Twitter yesterday, or maybe the day before. But ace pitchers are staying good later into their careers and are peaking later into their careers than they have in the past, which is interesting because it feels like we do see more pitchers peak early as well. So it's kind of hard to square those two things.
Starting point is 00:46:24 And it might be something that I want to do some more research on. But it's becoming less uncommon for guys to stay really, really great into their mid-30s. They're changing their pitch mixes early earlier in their careers to be more breaking ball heavy, which is the way pitchers usually stave off the loss of fastball velocity. But with the prevalence of drive line and there, are kind of related, you know, approaches to training, pitching and training specifically for velocity. You know, we're seeing more pitchers. And basically every pitcher now is training for velocity in a way that they weren't in the past. And so you're also seeing less drop-offs
Starting point is 00:47:09 in velocity with age. And so, yeah, I think he could be higher. you have to consider that the three guys between him and Cole are 24, 25, and 25. Yeah. And then you have this 32-year-old. I mean, that's a huge difference. Like, I could understand if you weren't confident in Beaver or Flaherty actually being as good as they showed last year, why you might rank them behind DeGrom. But if you're wrong about that, you're giving up a lot of years of productivity. there. So, yeah, I don't really, like, Bueller,
Starting point is 00:47:52 nobody seems to have the same doubts about Bueller as they do about Beaver and Flaherty. So I think, I think Bueller's pretty secure there at number two. If you, if not, if you're not putting them number one ahead of coal, I could, I could see somebody wanting to do that. Let me have a half-baked thought that's floating around in my head right now. This is always makes me sound smart, but let's talk about this. How many pitchers, regardless of age, have more than five, great years.
Starting point is 00:48:18 And I feel like it's Hall of Famers. You know, it's Kirshaw, it's Scherzer, it's Verlander. So even if Bueller goes on a straight, if Bueller's great, you know, he might just be great earlier in his career, but for the same amount of years as Jacob de Grom. Yeah. He basically, for him to be like great for the next 10 years,
Starting point is 00:48:39 that is so hard for a starting pitcher to do. You more or less have to be one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Like you have to be a legend. So I don't know how much age matters. Well, again, half big thought. You kind of overstated it there because, I mean, there's also Felix Hernandez. Hall of Fame. No, probably not.
Starting point is 00:49:03 Cole Hamill's John Lester. I mean, Madison Bumgarner at this point doesn't look like he's on a Hall of Fame. Lester is interesting. If you got a John Lester-like career from Shane Bieber, do you think he would deserve to be ahead of de Grom third? Because Lester's been great, but he hasn't been Scherzer, Verlander, you know. He hasn't been that good.
Starting point is 00:49:27 I mean, Lester's had a lot going. There have been several years. I mean, Lester's had a long career. There were several years there where we were drafting him about as high as we, at least among starting pitchers. I mean, starting pitchers as a whole have moved up. So DeGrom goes in round one in most leagues.
Starting point is 00:49:46 Lester's never been a round one type pick, but usually round one, there would only be one pitcher, you know? So there have been years where Lester was like the round two, round three guy, similarly ranked among starting pitchers. So yeah, I mean, it's easy to lose perspective like that. I think, I think,
Starting point is 00:50:07 I think there's truth to what you're saying. And my, the confidence ranking for these pitchers, it goes, down precipitously. There's a lot of twos and ones at the end in the back half of these rankings. I think they're probably all twos and ones in the back half in terms of confidence on a one to five scale.
Starting point is 00:50:28 But there are going to be pitchers who are the next version of all these ones that we're seeing now, the DeGroms and Coles and Scherzer's, there are going to be the next ones. And I think Bueller and Flaherty would be most people's top choices to be that now. and you know I put Bieber up there with him he's the same age I think just because of his style of pitching people tend to think of him as older
Starting point is 00:50:52 than Bueller and Flaherty but he's not he's the same age as he's right in between them actually in terms of when his birthday is so yeah I put all three of those there and I think they among the pitchers we among what we know about all the pitchers in baseball
Starting point is 00:51:09 right now I think they're the three with the best chance of having long and productive Hall of Fame type careers. Here's the larger question I would ask, and I want to present the question to the group. When you're thinking about dynasty value, let's say you have 100 points,
Starting point is 00:51:26 per cents even, as you might call them, how much of that would be taken up by their first year value? Like how much of what you expect in 2020 would you wait when you're looking, let's say, you know, in the future, we can go as far as you want. That's a good question.
Starting point is 00:51:47 That's probably like, that should be 50% or more. That's what I was going to say 50. Especially pitchers. I don't think it's that high for me. It might depend on the setup of the league. And, you know, I tend to think of this in the context of my own dynasty league, which is the one I spend the most time thinking about.
Starting point is 00:52:12 And that's one where, as young players are promoted, they're basically free to keep. And then they start out really cheap to keep. So, you know, there's a relative keeper value there. And maybe that influences my answer. But I would say it's only like 25%, at most 33%, emphasizing this year versus what I expect their whole future to be. And that's per pitcher that you draft.
Starting point is 00:52:37 Because for me, I think it becomes like the sum of the parts. so it's going to change. By the end, I think I wanted to be, Chris, like 50%. So I want to have some pitchers that are going to help me now and then I want to have some pitchers that are going to help me in the future. And then maybe even like one or two in between that I think can contribute now. But I wouldn't be, I did a dynasty startup not too long ago.
Starting point is 00:53:01 And I drafted, I think on back-to-back picks was like the four or five turn. I took Luis Julio Urius and I took Justin Verlander. So I took someone that I think can help me now and for the future, and I took Verlander, who I think can help me now. So it's really just the sum
Starting point is 00:53:17 of my entire pitching staff that I want to be kind of all over the place, if that makes sense. Here's a kind of fun exercise. I found 2017 dynasty rankings from ESPA.
Starting point is 00:53:31 Not trying to point, just saying this is number one pitcher. Yeah, number one, this is the first one I found. Number one pitcher is Clayton Kershaw. Number two pitcher is Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner's number three,
Starting point is 00:53:45 Max Scherzer, Corey Klouber, Carlos Martinez, Steven Strasbourg, Noah Cindergard, Lance McCullors, Chris Archer. And like three years is a long time in fantasy baseball, but that kind of shows how heavily weighted towards the immediate future you should be. I'm not sure, again, maybe like everybody has a different strategy but I don't especially with pitchers I don't know if you
Starting point is 00:54:18 should care about 2023 when you're drafting for 2020 I take the gram third in conclusion well what are we actually talking about because de grom goes what ninth 10th bueller beber and flared he go in the middle of round two it's it's not like you're neglecting this year by taking them they go just a little bit after de grom and redraft leagues and they potentially have a much... They are going a little bit after, but they're not close. Like, an actual value.
Starting point is 00:54:50 Like, DeGrom is a lot better than those guys. Yeah. If it were a full season, I would take DeGrom top five. And I did that in one of our mock drafts. Yeah. I think, like, they're relatively close in ADP, but that, you know, that difference here is huge.
Starting point is 00:55:08 Yeah, like, that's a huge difference in tier. It's like Garicol de Grom, and then I would say like a pretty substantial drop in at least confidence. But Scott's not taking Chris Paddock ahead of Jacob de Grom. He's taking guys who are in the next tier. Right. I get it. I would still take DeGrom because he's 32.
Starting point is 00:55:26 Scherzer and Verlander in their mid-30s and they're still as good as they've ever been. So if you told me that DeGrom has three more years of being amazing, I'm just, I can't look that much farther into the future than three years. So I'll take DeGrom third. I'll take Bueller ahead of him. Yeah, but you can't even assume that for DeGrom. I mean, you can't assume he's going to be an A-caliber pitcher for 35. I feel more confident in a 28-year-old being dominant still than a 35-year-old.
Starting point is 00:55:51 I'm not sure you should. Yeah, based on what we see now, I'm not sure you should. And especially the fact that DeGrom doesn't have a lot of a lot of innings. How many 35-year-olds are great? Verlander Shenzhen and Morton Granky, that's about it. How many 32-year-olds are great? How many 24-year-olds are great? Well, no, but that's my thing is, if you make,
Starting point is 00:56:11 it to 32 as, you know, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, your chances of being very, very good at 35 are so much, like, it's just, it's, that's kind of the survivorship bias. Like, pitcher, when I said earlier, you know, ace pitchers are aging better than they have in the past. That does not apply to the whole group. Like, you cannot just say, if you have a 29-year-old who's pretty good, he'll likely be pretty good at 32. Like, those guys are still dropping off. It's the guys who prove they can hold up to the workloads, prove they can be elite, you know, every year when the league sees them over and over. Those are the guys who age well. And so, you know, for me, DeGrom has passed all those barriers. There's no question.
Starting point is 00:56:58 Hi, David. I mean, it doesn't appear that Kluber is aging well. It doesn't appear that Price is aging well. Right. But Kluber- It's evident Lester and Hamels didn't age well. Felix Hernandez. I mean, You could find tons of examples of guys who. Kluber was great in 2017 as a 31-year-old. He was great at 2018 as a 32-year-old. And then he got hit on the elbow by a line drive. Like, that's, we don't know if Cory Kluber's aging well. Yeah, and he still might be good this year.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Like, we don't know. I think the common presumption, though, is that he's not. Yeah. I think Kluber is a point for Scott. Yeah, I just, that's, that's, again, that's putting a lot of weight on six starts. Like, that's the entire argument is six starts. because Corey Klooper was a second round. Corey Klober was a second round pick last year.
Starting point is 00:57:42 I didn't like him in 2019 because I felt like he was starting to crack a little bit toward the end of 2018. That's fine. But the consensus was wrong. Was that he was a second round or third round. Yeah. And then he had six bad starts, got hit on the elbow by a line drive, and all of a sudden the consensus is he's aging poorly.
Starting point is 00:58:05 That doesn't add up. Did you even say Chris Sale? because, I mean, Chris Sale. Right. But for Chris Sale, there's Severino, too. You know, I mean, I guess it's hard to predict three, four years out for any pitcher. Right. And that's, yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:19 I don't think DeGrom is going to fade. So, and I know he's good. I don't know that Jack Flaherty and Shane Bieber are great. Like, I'm pretty sure on Bueller. And I'm really, you know I love Flaherty. But like, DeGrom, there's no question. So I'd take him. third. But we're, you know, we're projecting three years out on a guy in Walker Bueller or not,
Starting point is 00:58:43 Walker Bueller's had two good years. We're projecting three years out on a guy in Jack Flaherty, who's had half a good, a great season and half of a not very good one. And then he was, you know, pretty good in 2018, but certainly not elite. I mean, he wasn't A's level, but he was must own in 2018. So I, that was as much. I think he was A's level. I, I know I say this a lot, but he had a 286 ERA, 168 strikeouts, and 138 in a third in his first 25 starts. He got crushed in his last three starts and ended up with a 334 ERA. That is why I love Flaherty, because I think he's been 286 for 25 starts and then 275 ERA the next year for a full season.
Starting point is 00:59:26 But he was crap for the first half of the season. Adam, if you do that exercise for his 2018, you got to do it for his 2019. Okay, fine. Take away the last three starts of his first. 2019. I bet he's not what I mean. You can't just say he had a, you can't just say he has two.
Starting point is 00:59:40 That's why I'm taking, that's why I'm taking DeGrom ahead of him. Because you're right. He's not as certain as, as Walker Bueller. I'm, I'm going to buy into it, but I understand why other people would be less,
Starting point is 00:59:50 less certain on Flaherty. Yeah, for me, it feels like putting too much weight on 2024 and beyond. And I just, one, baseball may have a strike in 2021. You know, but,
Starting point is 01:00:04 but that's kind of, the further out you get, the more uncertainty there is. For every player, for every age group, you know, the risk of injury for a 25-year-old when you project out three years. The risk of like a serious injury for a 25-year-old, it's probably like 50% when you're looking three years into the future. But, but, you know, if it's Tommy John or something, they still have a future beyond that, most likely.
Starting point is 01:00:32 Well, then Louis Severino should be ranked higher than McKenzie Gore. I have Louis Severino practically in my top 30. I don't know why you guys are nitpicking that. Like you guys are picking weird things to pick on here, I feel like. I don't think 32-year-old Jacob de Grom behind 25-year-old Bueller-old Bueller, 25-year-old Beaver and 24-year-old Flaherty.
Starting point is 01:00:53 Is it all controversial? No, we're splitting. Your list isn't controversial, so I think we're just, we're not picking for fun. I don't know if it's like controversial. I don't care. It's just like, there's just, different philosophies, and we're trying to explain the different philosophies to the, that's fine. And for me,
Starting point is 01:01:09 I just, I basically put zero weight on anything past three years, because there's just, you know, maybe if you want to do that for Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelts for Mike Trout and those guys, but there is so much that can go wrong for a pitcher in a given season, let alone two, let alone three, that I just, it doesn't factor in for me at any age. That is fair. We didn't get to question. Now at 11 scares me because he can't, he has not shown the ability to throw 100 pitches in a start and stay healthy. All right, the end.
Starting point is 01:01:42 All right, the end. We'll just end the show there. We didn't get to your questions today. Apologies, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Go check out Scott's top 100 starting pitcher ranks. Come up with your own dilemmas, your questions, whatever you might have, philosophy, conversation, and send them our way, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. For Scott, Adam, Chris, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching on the Fantasy Baseball today YouTube channel.
Starting point is 01:02:05 We'll see you again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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