Fantasy Baseball Today - ADP Mistakes; Sanchez vs. Realmuto; Emails and Insects (02/07 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 7, 2020

We've got some players who are being drafted too late like Josh Bell (4:40), Corey Seager (8:40), Nelson Cruz (13:35) and a young SP coming off a disappointing MLB debut (15:15) ... Which players are being drafted too early? We've got a stolen base machine (18:30) and a HR machine (25:05) who are being overdrafted. Then we've got the latest news on James Paxton (29:15), Julio Urias (32:00), Ross Stripling (35:50) and more. And Adam suggests a late round sleeper (41:30) ... Plenty of your emails (44:22) as we answer questions about Tommy Edman, Shohei Ohtani and more. Also, find out about the most disgusting insect on earth and we debate J.T. Realmuto vs. Gary Sanchez (57:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and fast. Alborated to turn the corner. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris.

And a very happy Friday, everybody. Welcome back to the show. It's fantasy baseball today. It's Adam Scott and Chris, as we are getting closer and closer to pitchers and catchers reporting. to the start of our position previews. Today we're going to read your emails at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com and review some average draft position. We call it ADP in the biz.

That's right. Good morning, Scott White. ADP, it's one of those things that you just drop in casual conversations and mention out of nowhere in articles. And I do kind of wonder if the average person is totally tuned into that yet. What exactly we mean when we just drop that acronym, ADP? It's one of those things that I struggle. Do I explain it every time?

Or do I just trust that everybody knows it by now? Chris, you down with ADP? You know, if we're talking about underdrafted and overdrafted players, are players whose ADP is correct? Shouldn't it be extraordinary draft position or like exceptional draft position? What? It's average draft position. It means where are these guys being drafted on average based on down?

from multiple websites and all the mock drafts and the drafts that have been done and whatnot. Where are they going? The data is obviously very incomplete. As the drafts continue to go on, we'll have better data. But this is pretty close. So it's pretty good stuff. So I asked Scott and Chris to come up with two underdrafted players that are going too late and two overdrafted players that are going too early.

We'll talk about that. First, Mookie bets. The deal is currently on hold. Not going to really get into it, but some men. medical stuff with Bruce Starr-Graderol, the pitching prospect going from the Twins to the Red Sox, and we'll see what happens. But right now the deal is incomplete.

And so is the Jock-Pretason stripling deal, right? Everything's incomplete at the moment. Well, it seems contingent, at least from the Dodgers perspective. I don't think they're willing to move on that until they're sure they have this Mookie Betts deal locked up. So I don't know. I don't know if there is a chance that happens independently. of it. And it sounds like the Mukubed's deal is still probably going to happen, though some

doubts have been raised by John Heyman just in the last 12 hours. So I don't know. We had a, we had already done an AL only head-to-head points mock on Tuesday immediately before this trade was reported. So we were like, okay, we clearly have to redo that. And we had that scheduled for this afternoon, but we're going to put it on hold because it's just way too up in the air right now. You know, my thing is

Bruce Starr Gator Graterol. Gatorade. Gatorade. Yeah. That's a role. One, I'm the only Hispanic person on this podcast, and I am maybe the worst at pronouncing

Hispanic names. Maybe? Really sad. Definitely. it doesn't it's not a good look for your guy Chris well I I don't always I never know how far to go with that because you don't want to pull like a peggy hill and like just come across is way too over the top with the you know the the way you had the accent and everything but at the same time you want to be accurate in my defense I'm bad at pronouncing pretty much everybody's name oh yeah so it's not specifically about the players but my other thing is that is this is a guy who's 21 years old. He's pitched five professional seasons. He's thrown more than 71 innings once.

He's had Tommy John surgery. He had a shoulder injury last year. What could have come up in the medicals that wasn't completely apparent in his profile, like in just who he was? Red Sox think they were drafted. Chris, let me, let me, you're trading for, yeah. So let me just, let's move on from that,

because we have more important stuff to talk about. We have a big show, a lot of stuff today. including Scott versus ADP, average draft position, looking at some players that Scott has either higher or lower than where they're being drafted, and some news and notes, hey, it didn't take long. James Paxton's already hurt. So, yeah, I know.

Underdrafted players, who are going too late, who is being drafted later than they should be? Scott, your first player, Josh Bell. He's going 88th overall. He was one of the top hitters in baseball before the All-Star break. Then, of course, he did the home run derby, and he was terrible after that. Bat at 233 in the second half with 10 home runs in 55 games.

Josh Bell going 88th overall, Scott. Yeah, I think people are going too far in downgrading him for his second half slump, which, by the way, he started to pull out of toward the end of the season. And so when you consider, when you weigh his full season production, it's far better than Jose Abraeu, who's going ahead of him. Max Muncie, who's going ahead of them. Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, certainly. He outperformed those guys considerably.

So it's clearly just them looking at the second half and saying, okay, we can't take those full season number seriously because clearly his first half was overblown. But it's not just that. Well, what else is it? Like, he's only had the one great season. We can't just say. One great half season.

Kind of. Yeah. But even if you take the full season at face value, It's the only one he's ever had at that level. It was okay. Okay. I mean, we're saying the same thing, basically. People aren't convinced he's as good as he was last year.

And the second half, like if he didn't have that downtrend in the second half, I don't think he would be going this late, right? Oh, no. And I think the best comp is probably Matt Olson, who kind of had a similar breakthrough last year. He was a, you know, had a really great 2017 and 59 games hit those 24 home runs. He was a big time disappointment in 2018. and nobody was really all that excited to draft him last year. He has a very similar year to Josh Bell in 2019,

and he's going 20 to 30 picks ahead of him on average. So, yeah, I'm not quite sure what side Chris is on. So, Chris, are you saying, do you also agree that Bell is going too late? I'm on both sides at all time. I'm going to work in Manhattan. Somebody did some work on this. I wish I could find the tweet, but it seems, to correspond with the things

Josh Bell was saying and that in the second he got away from his approach in the first half and started trying to do better on breaking balls like he started attacking breaking balls in a way he wasn't before and it was just terrible idea and there was the thing Adam talked that brought up in the podcast

back in December I think and that was one thing that really opened my eyes was how much he struggles against lefties and how many more lefties he faced in the second half I got to find the numbers exactly. I wrote about it in my case for and case against peace.

And, you know, it was pretty eye-opening that it might not have just been bad luck. I'll send it to you right now so you can... It wasn't just bad. I'm not arguing it was just bad luck. All right, guys. So, Scott, you're saying he should go win, Josh Bell. he is my number

shoot where is he I think he should go earlier to that he should probably go about 20 picks earlier than that he's I have him ahead of those first baseman I mentioned a Brayou Muncie Olson Goldschmidt I may have LaMayhew ahead of Bell that may have been a recent change I made just because LeMayhew I mean he has that multi-eligibility

and because I know I can wait longer to get Bell so like don't don't don't you don't let your rankings talking to somebody into reaching for him kind of situation. But there's a point where, I mean, the potential is just so much higher than a lot of those first basemen he's going behind. All right. Fifth or sixth round for Josh Bell, that's what we're saying here.

Chris, first player you wanted to talk about as being underdrafted is Corey Seeger, 136th overall. In 2016, he was a top five shortstop. In 2017, he was sixth in points, ninth in Roto. And something of an afterthought, I guess. So that's round 12 for Corey Seeger in a 12 team league. And if you're playing in a one shortstop league, Corey Seeger could be one of the last shortstop off the board. And you like the value.

I love the value. Especially it's tough because his better format is that points format, at least for now in his career. Because he's not a big home run guy. He's not a big stolen base guy. So you're counting on RBI runs and average from him to be really good. good. And I think they will be. And he's probably in a roto league, more like a fringy shortstop slash middle infielder. But, you know, I could have also argued that Carlos Correa is being

underdrafted. He's 80th. You know, I like him. I've talked about him a lot on this podcast. But, you know, if you compare both of them from 2015 to 2017, because Corey Seeger, his 2018 was completely lost, his 2019 was a down year. I think a lot of that was because he was coming back from hip and shoulder and elbow injuries. Corey Seeger was, if you take out stolen bases, he was better pretty much across the board. Correa hit for more power. But other than that, you know, it's very comparable. It's not like Carlos Correa is a more sure thing.

It's not like he's going to steal bases this year. So, you know, you've got Corey Seeger going 48 spots behind him in ADP. I like Carlos Correa a lot, but I love Corey Seeger at that value. I love Corey Seeger, too, and I'm confident in a bounce back. He has such a stable skill set, and his first two years, he was, you know, clearly a must-start player than Tommy John surgery. And I'm just going to give him a pass coming back from that injury, especially since the plate discipline looked great. And I believe he finished strong, right? Well, no, he started really slowly, and then he got super hot.

And then Corey Seeger went on the IL. When he came back from the IL, last 68 games, he was okay. He batted 266. He had an 806 OPS, but nothing special there. He had seven home runs in September, 291 with seven home runs in September. He finished strong. The one that I've always come back to is he was terrible in April, sub-700 OPS. Again, coming back from hip. Hilbo.

Hip and Tommy John's surgery, that feels like a pretty good excuse. but, you know, his, basically from May 1st on, his 155 game pace is 282 average, 28 homers, 226 combined RBI and runs, and two stolen bases. That's nothing. But, like, he could legitimately be a four category contributor and a three category stuff.

Yeah, he was, his, heading into his sophomore season, he was a first round pick in fantasy. I mean, this, there is a ceiling. here that I think maybe a lot of people aren't accounting for, and the floor is very high, too. And I would be thrilled to take him as my starting shortstop. I just have trouble waiting that long, because there's so many good short steps that I end up filling the spot sooner. And part of me is like,

well, just don't do that. Just wait for Corey Seeger. But I'm afraid if I consciously wait for Corey Seeger, then that'll be the time somebody grabs him before I can. That's a good strategy, though. So, yeah, Seeger. And then like after Seager in the rankings is Polanco, Tim Anderson, Didi Gregorius, Ahmed Rosario. So I think if you have that strategy, I'm just going to wait. Don't wait. I don't know. Scott, I would say don't wait any longer than Seeger.

I can make a case for Diti. I mean, it's really the same exact case. He came back from Tommy John and had a terrible year, but the three years before that, he was pretty good. Can he have power away from Yankee Stadium? At Philadelphia, I think he can. And I remember one of those three years... The ceiling isn't as high for D.

No, it's not. But yeah, I would say Seeger is probably the last one you'd want to have that strategy for. Yeah, he is the last one. And I guess Jorge Polanco is the ultimate fallback for me, who I don't think he's going to be, I don't think the ceiling compares to Seagers either. But it's certainly starting caliber the production he gave last year and the production. I think he's going to provide again this year. But yeah, Seeger, in an auction maybe, that would be the time to say,

okay, this is my shortstop and you know, hope he gets nominated before all the fallback options are gone and then you can hopefully get him for cheap. What do you think he is like a

four or five dollar player? Oh yeah, five dollars right there on your rankings page. There you go. Okay. Next player on the underdrafted list. Go back to Scott. Nelson Cruz,

99th overall. Jordan Alvarez is going 46th overall. So about a half, At about the halfway point of Nelson Cruz, you'll get Jordan Alvarez. And yeah, Cruz played 120 games last year, 144 the year before, but still, he can hit. Yeah, the production has been so consistent. Basically, ever since he left Texas, he has been an elite hitter who has never been drafted as such.

And it seems like he drops a little more every year. Understandably, he's 39 this year. and at some point, you're just going to stop. Your body's just not going to be able to do that anymore. But where he's going, 99th overall, it more than accounts for that risk. It goes too far in guarding against that.

Obviously, the DH-only thing is tough. I said on last podcast, I'm going to have a lot of shares in Jordan-Alvarez, so, you know, in the leagues where I end up drafting him, I'm just not going to have a chance at Cruz. But if you do have that spot available, particularly if you're going pitching heavy at a beginning, Cruz is a great choice for making up whatever you may have sacrificed at your hitter spots.

Okay. And we also mentioned this, I think, last week, he is not going to gain outfield eligibility, whereas Alvarez will at some point. Cruz is going to be a DH all year. I don't know when Alvarez is going to get it, though. Yeah. I keep specifying.

some time around the All-Star break. Brendan McKay, 227th overall. He had a 514 ERA and a 1-4 whip in 49 innings, but a great walk-to-strikeout ratio. Give him a lot of hits, though. But Brendan McKay, Chris, 227th overall. I think there's a very good comp for Brendan McKay, and it's a guy who's being drafted in, like, the 50 range right now,

and that's Aaron Nola. They were both drafted as relatively projectable, college arms. We're supposed to be kind of the safe prospect, maybe not as much upside as some of the other guys. They both came up in the majors early on, got more strikeouts than we really expected to, but also got hit around pretty hard. Obviously, Aranola started to figure that out once, you know, he had a little bit of a velocity jump and became, you know, a much better pitcher overall. Well, Brenham Kay's already got better velocity than Aranola. It's about average for the league, but for a lefty, it's actually pretty much above average.

You know, the secondary stuff, it didn't look as good as expected last year, but he was super, super inexperienced when you look at his overall minor league track record. He hasn't logged a lot of innings. There's still room for growth. And when you look at the way starting pitcher and especially young and promising starting pitchers tend to get inflated, like, I'm looking at it in Dustin May is going ahead of him. I'm not sure Dustin May has a rotation spot. Brenna McKay does. And so...

Well, does he? Because I'm looking at the Ray's rotation options here. Charlie Morton, obviously, Blake Snell, obviously, Tyler Glassnow, obviously. Yanni Chorinos, Ryan Yarbrough, they both probably deserve spots over McKay, right? Maybe. I don't know. It's possible. Okay.

That's a good look. that that's he's not guaranteed a rotation spot he's not guaranteed to be good we take chances on we take chances on guys with that same profile you know earlier than we're doing with brenda mackay it's it's a situation i think where he wasn't good in his first taste of the majors and that's a good spot for fantasy value to come from because he's not he hasn't lost the talent that made him one of the best prospects in baseball right i i completely agree i don't think you shouldn't judge Brendan McKay too harshly on 49 innings in his debut season. I think is basically what you're saying, right? He hasn't really lost any prospect stock either. If you look at prospect rankings all over the internet, yeah, nobody's obviously fantasy players might be judging them partially,

but prospect evaluators aren't. By the way, the race are going to be freaking good this year, right? It's more or less, too, but dang. They're going to be a nightmare for fantasy. maybe four reasons we just highlighted yeah i think among hitters even more so than among yeah we don't know who's going to play on any given day they've got like 20 i don't know how they fit 46 players on their 26 man roster but it seems like they're going to do it austin meadows is the only one that i would feel confident is going to get every day a pass in their lineup i mean

guess maybe willie adams too but you know obviously he's not that big of a deal for fantasy purposes But is Alberto Mondesie a big deal for fantasy purposes? Let's go to our overdrafted list. Mondesie is going 41st overall. He stole 43 bases in 102 games. He was off to a really good start. First two months, he had a 288 batting average, six home runs, 13 double, seven triples. That's an 812 OPS with a ton of steals, 20 steals in two months.

So he was basically one of the most valuable players in fantasy. All fell apart for him after that. and he gets hurt all the time. Scott, I'm surprised he's on your overdrafted list, given your panic about steals, Mondesie 42nd overall, 41st overall. I'm really trying to adjust my perception of these high steals guys who seem like they have very risky profiles

because, yes, there is a panic for steals early in drafts, and it is, it is understandable, and it is something that you have to submit to to some degree unless you're just going to build such a world-beating pitching staff that you can afford to punt on steals, which is probably more difficult to do than just taking a couple steals guys.

So, yeah, I've referred to it as Stolen-based derangement syndrome, how early these guys are going. I've referred to them that way before, and I've, you know, kind of dialed back a little, but 38th overall for a guy who That's probably all he's going to give you is stolen bases. He showed some signs of breaking through as a hitter two years ago, but that all regressed pretty massively last year,

and I don't really count on him for batting average or power, certainly not an on-base guy. You just trust him to run a lot. The few times he does get on base. I'm sorry, you're passing up too many good players by taking him 38th overall. Just here's here's some of the names going right after him. Javier Baez, Aaron Nola, Charlie Blackman,

Jordan Alvarez, Patrick Corbyn, Luis Castillo. I mean, we've already talked about how important it is to get an ace. And he's right there in the thick. So if you, Scott, if you don't take Mondesie there and now your first four picks are most deals guys or pitchers or whatever, what do you do? Who do you fall back on?

Jonathan VR, who is on my bus list because I do think there's some bottom out potential there, but he's going 14 picks later. And even if he does become less than a full-time player, even if he doesn't end up making a big contribution or significant contribution in power again, he's got to run. He's going to play enough to factor in that category. And he has a better chance of helping in multiple categories than Mondesie does. I think they're probably close to the same guy.

The biggest thing, I don't know if you mentioned this, but I think the biggest knock against Modesty, he cannot stay healthy. I mentioned it, but yeah. In the minors, he has never been able to stay healthy. And I think he's coming off a torn labor, which is a really tough injury to come back from.

You know, you probably undersold his power a little bit. I would expect in 150 games, probably 15 to 20 homers. I think he'd be very similar to Jonathan V.R. in that sense, but much, much lower on base percentage, probably a lower batting average. I think he'll steal more bases. That's what Mondesie has going for him. That's where the helium comes from is he stole 43 bases in 109 games.

If you average, if you extrapolate that out to 150 games, it's 60 steals. No, but I think he's still led the American League in stolen bases last year. And he played 109 games. That's where it comes from. But as we've learned with Trey Turner, you can't just take what someone did in 100 games and say, well, that's the pace they're going to do it for in 150. Remember when we were talking about Trey Turner is a potential 60-70 steel guy?

Never happened. Yeah, and now he's more like in the 40s, yeah. Did not lead the AL in steals. I don't know who did. But 43 and 102 games, that's obviously a lot. But like, whatever he gives you in terms of power, is not going to be enough on its own to justify passing up that many players. Why do you got, why?

You really just want an extreme steals guy, take Malick Smith, you know, 120 picks later. And I'm not that into taking Malick Smith 120 picks later, but I'm more into it than this. Malick Smith, by the way, is who led the A.O. and steals. He led baseball and steals with 46 and Monisee at 43. Um, why, so wait, why do you think the first two months of the season were just, because he was maybe your favorite player last year. You were all about Mondesie, and he gets off to this great start. Why do you think that he is not a good hitter, basically?

Because all the skill indicators show it. I'd have to review the numbers again. This is part of what happens when you do a lot of research in October is you forget why you came to the conclusions you came to. But yeah, the strikeout rate was horrible. Yeah. He stopped hitting Lion drives at the time. the same rate, stop titting fly balls at the same rate, hit a lot more ground balls.

You look at the XBA, I assume it's pretty dang low. I'd have to pull that up again. But yeah, it's not, it doesn't look like the skills are there for him to be a good player with the bat. And it was trending, it was trending up two years ago. Yeah, but those are full season. Like, he was good before he got hurt. So I'm just wondering if maybe he did have good indicators. then he got hurt multiple times and he stunk rest of season. I don't know. I guess I'm more willing to take a gamble on Mondesie than you are, but 41st overall,

38th overall, and the guys that you are, like, there's no way I'm taking Charlie, I'm taking him over Charlie Blackman. Yeah, you're right. Exactly. That's crazy. Exactly. If it was, yeah, go ahead. 68th overall instead of 38th?

Maybe we could talk about it, but yeah, that's, there's too many studs at that point in the draft still. All right, Chris, let's get one more here. Your choice, Pete Alonzo or Vlad Guerrero? Let's go with Pete Alonzo. I think we have a tendency, even as we've gotten much smarter about how we analyze baseball. I'm using the Royal Wii, the Wii as the baseball community. When a player comes up and has a rookie season, we're like, well, it's only going to get

better from here, or at least he won't get worse. Why would he regress? He was so good. and you look at all the underlying metrics and all that. You know, we did this with Aaron Judge three years ago. He hit 52 home runs. Pete Alonso broke his rookie record. We all know that.

Aaron Judge has had trouble staying healthy, and that's why he's been a disappointment the last couple of years for fantasy. But his 162 game pace over the last two years is also only 41 home runs. I think this is a really bad example. Because if, if Pete Alonzo regresses to Aaron Judge levels, you're going to be perfectly fine taking him in the third round I think you are because he doesn't have as robust a skill set as Aaron Judge.

Like Aaron Judge has that really, really high batting average because he hits the ball so hard. Pete Alonzo hits for really good power. He does hit the ball as well as Aaron Judge does. But I don't think he has a real... Aaron Judge is not of a really high batting average. He has a really high OVP. He's got better batting average than Alonzo.

But if Alonzo, if Alonzo hits 260 with 40, with 42, two home runs instead of 53 home runs. That's going to be fine where you're drafting him. It's going to be great. With all the runs and RBIs that come with it? I think it's going to be fine, but in this context, what if he hits 240? Well, okay, but if he hits 260 with 42 home runs

and gets you 200 runs plus RBI, is that a third round player to you? Yeah, but I don't know if that's that much better than what you'll get from Max Muncie. Or Matt Olson. I don't know if, yeah, Matt Olson, Josh Bell, you know, there's a lot of guys right now who can hit for a lot of power and not help you in batting average. And so there's a decent chance. He's a three category guy next year.

And those categories are the easiest to find. You know, batting average and stolen bases are the ones that are really at a premium now. And I just, I think there's a decent floor. and obviously the ceiling appears to be really high. But drafting him in the third round, that's just, that feels like drafting him 31st overall is drafting him at his ceiling.

All right, so Pete Alonzo, batted 290 in the minors, and he hits the ball hard, not like Aaron Judge, but, you know, solid hard contact rate. He had a 280 Babbitt. In the minors, his Babbitt was really high till... Yeah, that's common.

Yeah, so just do you... you think he can be a better batting average hitter? And if so, how much better? He had 260 as a rookie. Well, if I could speak up here, I'm not as concerned about the floor as Chris's, because for a guy who has this kind of home run potential, Alonzo really doesn't strike out that much. No, he doesn't impact the ball as hard as the outlier class of like Aaron Judge and Miguel

Sino and maybe you put Joey Gallo in there. he doesn't. And that would make me concerned that he's going to have this outlier home run rate again. I think more likely he regresses to 40s something, probably low 40s. So, you know,

if you're drafting him according to his best case scenario, which is probably what we saw last year, that's a bad idea. But I think his most likely scenario is still elite. But like Chris is saying, is it worth the upchart?

we're seeing here versus where you could get like a max muncy or even like Josh Bell we talked about earlier. Yeah. I'm not sure it is. Right. Okay. Good stuff. Overdrafted and underdrafted according to ADP, average draft position.

Here are some news and notes. James Paxson is out three to four months after back surgery. You could be looking at Jordan Montgomery, maybe Louis Sessa, replacing him in the rotation. Remember, Domingo Oman is suspended. for, do you guys remember 50, 60 games, something like that? 60 something, I think, because he served part of the suspension last year.

Okay, right, it was an 80 game suspension total. So, yeah. Sounds right. So, yeah, so that's two members of the rotation for the Yankees that are out. First question, when do you draft James Paxon right now? I dropped him quite a bit because two to three months timetable

is not very specific. And it sounds like, you know, having something removed from your back. I'm not even sure how the rehabilitation is going to go from that. It may not be so straightforward. Obviously, pitchers of Paxton's caliber are the major resource in fantasy right now. So, you know, you could look at this as an opportunity to get that, get a guy like that at a discount. and have this huge benefit later on. But you're just not really sure what you're getting.

So I dropped up to 58th in my starting pitcher rankings, which is behind guys like Tanaka and Mike Fultenevich and Cole Hamils. I could be talked out of it, I suppose, but I'm very worried about this. Well, and especially if you take into account, like just because he comes back in, let's say, early May, which would be the best case scenario, this point. It's not like you can just pencil in. Okay, I'm going to get five months out of James Paxton. James Paxton typically doesn't stay healthy. Now, there's been some bad luck. I think

a couple of years ago, he got hit by a line drive on his arm. So it's not all as bad as it looks, but it's the track record there is pretty scary as far as the injury. If he comes back in June, then you're looking at he's got four months max. I don't know. how much four months of James Paxton is worth. I mean, it could be worth a lot. Obviously, you get to stash him in a DL spot or IL spot. It's not like he's suspended.

And what are we talking about here? We're talking about a guy who's at times been really, really good. Great, I'd say. At times, he's been disappointing. He's had some home run issues, but he started mixing up his pitches a little bit in the second half. At his last 11 starts, he went 10 and 0 with a 251 ERA, a 14% swinging strike rate.

He was totally elite. And that's what I have been hoping. for for James Paxson. It has not happened over a full season, but I feel like he could do it. Here's a really interesting one. Who has more innings pitched in 2020? James Paxston or Julio O'Reas?

I would bet on Arias. Who would you draft first? O'Reas is going like 160th right now, which seems like decent value to me, but I think there's probably like 140, 150 inning ceiling for him. You know, everybody's into Aureas now, and they should be.

he's a winner from if the trades go through getting myeda and stripling out of there and i really kind of always liked him like a lot and uh i had him on my team last year he was good in a roto league just coming in for a few innings at a time i don't know though that if you look at his track record that he's the love is completely justified like it's got to be a late round i can't take him over james paxton he's going to have to get better i think like one of the things is he does have like a low three ZRA for his career and I think he was like two eight last year um the ERA indicators and estimators aren't quite as as in love with Julio Urias but he's also still I think he's still 23 he's younger than A.J. Puck is the

comp that I've gone with when I've written about him and AJ Puck is someone we're hoping can turn into a major league starter this year. Um, he's been around forever. He's one of the, you know, When he was 19, or 18, he was one of the best pitching prospects of the decade. And he's had to overcome a lot of injuries to his shoulder since then. But his velocity was way up last year. There were a lot of positive signs. Yeah. And I'm sorry, Scott, I'll let you weigh in on Arias.

The numbers are really good. It's just that he hasn't, he hasn't, like, gone deep into games. You know, some starts were just a few innings, if I recall. So, you know, the numbers are a little deceiving because he just hasn't done it. Where's a start? This is a three and two-thirds-inning start. You know, down the stretch, we're talking three innings, two innings. He was basically like an opener.

So we just don't know with Arias. Yeah, like Chris said, the ERA estimators are kind of high. The ex-fip and Sierra are both above four, which, you know, for the range he's going, you could certainly still live with. And it would suggest he's had good home run luck, but maybe it wasn't luck. I don't know. I mean, he's certainly accomplished a lot for his age. and you certainly can,

you don't have to look that hard to see the upside here. In terms of him not pitching that deep into games, well, it was obviously by design. Yeah. I don't know, I don't know to what extent the Dodgers are going to unleash him this year.

I think their willingness to trade Maida and stripling while getting back just price says they're counting on him a lot. But they still have a rotation surplus, even without them. Yeah. Tony Gonsolin, they have Dustin A. So it still may not be a situation where he's treated like,

like, you know, Kershaw and Bueller are going to be treated. Probably not going to be bad. It's just, is it where between 120 and 150 innings does he wind up? And what per start is he going to be allowed to do, as opposed to having those phantom D.L stints in the middle of the season as a way to curtail his innings? I, Leston. Scott, Jordan Montgomery is in the Yankees' rotation.

and would you draft him in a mixed league? I remember liking him after his rookie season. I took a closer look, and I think I just know more now than I did then, because I'm not seeing it, no. Okay. So the red signed Pedro Stroke to a one-year, $1.8 million deal. Strope is coming off a bad year with the Cubs, but the previous five seasons, he was incredibly consistent with an ERA under three

and a solid whip all five years. So, Ricello Iglesias, you better get your act together. The Angels acquired Ross Stripling, so we did not know this when the news broke. Scott Stripling is enticing. He's done some really good things. What do you think about him on the Angels? Just to be clear, that hasn't happened. Right.

That's part of the, okay. Oh, he's probably the biggest winner of the whole Betts Peterson saga. This does go through because his ratios are, are wonderful. He was an All-Star as a starter two years ago and then they just decided he didn't need to start anymore because they have that rotation surplus and he was in and out of the rotation of last year

two. Even when he was in, they didn't let him go more than like three or four innings at a time. They just didn't need him to be the impact pitcher he shows the signs of being. And yet you look at that first half from 2018 and he say absolutely

he could be that. With the angels, I think that's the opportunity. he'll have. So he's, I mean, he's somebody I moved ahead of, or moved Paxton behind as well, in a combination of moving stripling up and Paxton down. I have him 57th in my starting pitcher rankings, stripling. And Stripling doesn't have to be first half of 2018 good. He's been good whenever he's gotten a chance. You know, he's got a mid three ZRA, right? For his career. Yeah. Yeah. Been very good, pretty much every time he's gotten an opportunity. Right. Incredible. strikeout to walk ratio.

I mean, it's not huge strikeout potential, but it's it's not like that's something he lacks, and then he's very good control. So he could be he could be an innings eater. I feel like he has the makeup to be. I don't know if the angels are going to let him be quite that right away,

but if they let him be more like a five, six inning pitcher instead of a three, four inning pitcher, yeah, it could go very well for him. One thing I noticed about stripling, though, is if you look at his numbers first time through the order, second time, third time, his batting average against is not bad, but his ERA is pretty bad.

So he gives up a lot of home, so far he has given up home runs third time through the order. And I always wonder with a guy who's basically his, his repertoire is based on his curveball. He's got a great curveball. He's not a hard thrower. If he can be a little home run prone. So I wonder,

know, if that will continue, it's just the theory. Don't think we have enough of a sample size to really know. But I did notice that in the numbers for stripling. He's going to a good park. He is. To prevent home runs and a good division for preventing home runs. How about Maida or Stripling? Who would you draft first?

Maida. Okay. They're both aren't eligible, right? I think it's stock up for him, too, for many of the same reasons. Like, the twins just need him to be more of a traditional stock. than the Dodgers did. More notes. Not much. Let's see. I'm lost in my notes here. Sorry.

More notes. The Dodgers signed Max Muncie to a three-year, $26 million deal. I don't think this is pending the bets trade. And the Astros are expected to sign Cuban outfielder Pedro Leon. Do you have anything to say about that, Scott White? I would have to look into that more. Okay. So I got a tweet from a... listener, Lyndon Savanto, who said he road tripped to see every team in their home

stadium was an incredible trip, 30 stadiums in two months. So I... That's a dream. Is that cool or what? I would love to do that. Yeah. The only problem is you have to go to baseball games, which are boring as hell. But... Oh, gosh. I love going to new baseball. You'd rather go to a baseball game than a football game. Oh, please, said nobody.

Said no sober people. Football games are horrible to watch live. What are you talking about? They're exciting. They're fun. They're loud. There's no good seats. You can't see anything.

They're slow. There's not that much action. They're slow. You're defending a baseball game? There's five minutes of TV commercials for every 14 seconds of gameplay. Give me a baseball game every day. You're right. I forgot.

Baseball is known for its very rapid pace and lack of commercial breaks. I mean, look. You know, that's what you love about baseball. This is a fun impromptu argument. I like going to Yankees games, but not that many. Like, they are super boring. Well, that's just because it's the Yankees. Yeah, obviously, crappy team.

But anyway, I asked him to rank his top five stadiums that he visited, and Lyndon has not responded to me yet. So, Lyndon, if you're listening, send an email. It will be the best way to do it. Fantasy Baseball at CBS.com. I would love to know your favorite five stadiums, or you can reply to the tweet, but I might not see. it so an email would be better.

I think I've only been to five. If your top five doesn't include PNC Park in Pittsburgh, you don't know what you're talking. Don't even write in that. If your top five doesn't include Oracle Park in San Francisco. I've never been, but PNC is unbelievable. Oracle, unbelievable. Yeah, I have been to so few stadiums. I've been to Marlins Park, Yankees, Mets.

I don't even know if I've been to any other stadiums. I think I've been to like 12. And PNC's far and away the best. Okay. By the way, I was on a podcast last night with Ariel Cohen, who writes for Sportsline. I went on the TGFBI podcast. The episode should be out now or soon. And he asked me about some outfielder's,

and I developed a little bit of a crush on a late-round outfielder. This is not going to be the player I love, no way, because most likely scenario is it's not going to go well, and he could platoon. but I'm pretty interested in No Mar Mazarra, guys. I want to know what you think about him. I just feel like if he has a year, oh, well, he started hitting fly balls, then he could be good, you know?

And if they, if they heard that a few times. Yeah, but, but he's so, but he's so cheap now. Like, everybody kind of liked Nomar Mazarra. Now nobody really wants him. So I'm thinking he's still a young player with, with obvious, well, with, with, not obvious. upside, but with a case that is not that hard to make. Go ahead. He also has a relatively high floor. That's what I like. Like, I've never really been a Nomar Mazar guy. He just hasn't shown the

skills. But, you know, a typical Nomar Mazarra season, if you can get him in the 220 to 250 range, would be a pretty good outcome. It wouldn't be a great outcome, especially in this environment. But, you know, he's been 20 to 23 homers, decent RBI and run numbers. He's in a decently. He's in what should be a pretty good lineup and a great park. So, you know, he doesn't have to make the improvements anymore. This was, you know, he's being drafted top 150 last year and probably top 100 a year before. And he's kind of dropped 50 to 70 spots every year as, you know, we've gotten further away from him being this big prospect. But like, he hit the furthest home run in baseball last year. There is no doubting the talent that this guy has. He

just he needs to to tighten up his swing hit more balls in the air but i mean the the talent is obvious and if we think it is it just an adjustment situation that makes him a perfect change of scenery candidate right right and i i think actually the white socks express some optimism they could get more out of them than the rangers did without going into specifics so it's something to watch i mean if he's if he's a guy who has this monster spring i think we're going to see I don't even want that. He's going to get some serious draft helium. I don't want that.

I want him to have no draft helium because I want him to be my very last pick in a deeper league or a $1 bid in an auction. I want nobody interested in Omar Mazar, who, by the way, is still 23 years old. He'll be 24 years old in April. He cannot hit lefties. He could platoon with Adam Engel,

who did very well against lefties, but I know there are problems there, but I think you're not going to find much more potential with your last pick, I suppose, if he really is your last pick. We'll see if other people kind of feel the same way. Okay, so we're not going to have time for Scott versus ADP. I think that segment is never going to happen.

I'm sorry, Scott. Let's do emails instead. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. But you know what? There was one Scott versus ADP that I think is a fun debate if you want to get into it. We can do that very end of the show. We'll save it. Our last topic will be JT. Reaamuto versus Gary Sanchez.

Scott Scott Sanchez. ADP.S.R.M. Emails. All right, again, it's FantasyBesai.com. We're going to skip the first one. because it's from Tony in Indianapolis, who had a question about Alberto Mondesi, and we went over him.

So let's go to the second one. It's from Nick near St. Louis. He says, Dear, Hercules, Lady, and Dung. And then he says, the Beatles. It's good. I don't get that. I mean, I know a Dung beetle.

Hercules beetle is also, I think that's the one with, like, the giant horns or something. Oh, those are actual beetles. Lady beetle? Okay. I don't know. On Wednesday show,

On Wednesday's show, you took an email where you talked a bit about Tommy Edmund as a potential steel source. I'm a Cardinals fan. I love Tommy Edmund late last year. He helped me win a ton of fantasy playoffs. But he's getting a lot of helium right now, word of the day. And I have two big concerns. One, his 2019 postseason performance, small sample I know, but one 83 batting average, OPS under 633 at bats. The other issue for Edmund is playing time.

MLB.com says he's starting at third base. FanGrav says he's starting in left field, but local media is reporting that Carpenter will start at third, and O'Neill or a minor leaguer who breaks through in spring will get left field. I know Edmund can be a utility guy, but if he's only starting three or four days a week, he isn't close to worth what the price is. Your thoughts? Could this be a thing with Tommy Edmund with playing time? I looked up what a Hercules beetle looks like.

Oh, yeah. Terrifying. I did too. It looks like a bottle opener. Oh, my God. I got to see this now. I can't. What was the question? Tommy Edd been playing.

Ooh! It's like a crab. It is not something you want to see like crawling across your leg, that's for sure. Yeah, there's pictures of people with like them on their hands for like size references. Oh, God. Up to Edmonds and the possibility that he may not play every day.

The best laid plans of mice and Edmunds oft go awry, is what I would say there. When you're talking about a guy who a team wants in the lineup can play in basically any spot, and we're not sure they've got a role, those guys usually end up playing more than you think. He's better than Dexter Fowler. He's better than Harrison Bader.

Maybe Bader's defense puts him over, but he's better than Matt Carpenter at this point. He's better than Colton Long. Yeah, I'm not worried about playing time either. and skills-wise, while the September power surge may have been a mirage, he definitely profiles for a good batting average with enough extra base power and certainly speed.

He was very successful on the base paths, I think. I think you can almost pencil them in for 30 steals, which is obviously a big deal in today's environment. Cool. All right, next email. By the way, a lady beetle is like a cute little bug. A dung beetle is disgusting, and a Hercules beetle is one of the most terrifying things I've ever seen.

Oh, that's just a ladybug. I guess those are Beatles. Yeah, right? Certainly looks that. I didn't know that. Good to know. All right. Since.

Dear AJ, Alex, and Carlos. Fired managers. Cheater. I agreed to not overreact to the cheating scandal for all players associated, but you talk about players with good plate discipline like Bogart's and Bregman. Should they be viewed as more risky

because of their unfair advantage? Breggman's always had incredible plate discipline even going back to the minors. I really don't think there's anything to worry about with him. Bogart's I mean, the thing about all of this is

we're talking about years ago. Well, we don't know. It's possible something could have been going on last year still, but Bogart's plate discipline, though, started to get better late in 2018. 2018 is when the Red Sox were cheating. We'll get more details

later this week, it seems, or next week. It's an interesting thought. Because, you know, the plate discipline angle, remember the Astros went from the highest strikeout team to the lowest strikeout team, right? And now I think we know why. Well, but that was no.

But that they had the personnel in place for that. I don't think it was just because of that. Partial. The evidence suggests that that started midway through the 2017 season, I believe, and the changes had already started.

Like, this is the problem with this whole thing is, what we know doesn't suggest that it made a big difference. Like, there was the analysis that came out last week where someone went through and kind of charted who had the most bangs and who had the lease and like Jose Altuve got none. And he had, you know, in 2017, I think that was his MVP season. So it's like, we just, we really don't know how much it benefited, who it benefited, whether it benefited on the road or at home. Like, the strikeout rate wasn't.

noticeably lower on the road than at home in 2017 for the Astros. So it's just really hard to say. And the, you know, the lack of evidence doesn't mean that they didn't do it or that it didn't help, but it helped. You can only go on what you know. There's common sense, though. I mean, if you know what pitch is coming, it helps. But I think it certainly helped.

I think it certainly helped in like a seven game series. It may have, it may have swung that series against the Dodgers. against the Yankees. The Yankees were still going to lose. The Yankees won every home game and the Astros won every home game. Any of those playoff series that went deep. Shut up, Chris, whatever you just said. I don't even know, but shut up.

But I don't think when you're talking about a player's full season stat line, particularly when all the different splits don't really back it up. Worried about Bogart's? Not for that reason. I think there's reason to believe maybe he overachieved just in more traditional. sense last year, but not anything to do with the cheating scandal. Exactly. That was from Matthew in Maryland.

Here's a different Matthew. Gents, you all seem to always love trading two players to get the one better player. I'm trying to go the other way in a keeper league. I'm looking to trade Mike Trout. My plan was to agree to a trade before the draft where I keep Trout as one of my five keepers and have the other team keep Trey Turner and Jose Altovae and then swap the players immediately. Since you all love trading the other way, where do you fall on this point?

and how much do you need to get back in a one for two trade in order to make it worth it? And that would be trading Trout for Jose Al Tuvei and Trey Turner. Would you do it? I would, I mean, I do think that helps your 2020 chances making that trade. But, you know, it's, I'm a little worried about Altufe's longevity. I'd wonder about what the other four keepers were, because if you're, you're limited to five every year. You obviously want them to be the best they could possibly be. I don't love it. I'm not going to call about it. I don't understand why you do it, but it wouldn't

I can't say for sure that I would do it or not. It would just depend on how the rest of my team looked, but I don't, in theory, I don't love it. I think it's fine. Chris, has Tray Turner lived up to his draft billing since, well, after his rookie year, you know, where he took the league by storm. Has he really been as good as where he gets drafted? I would say 2018 is probably the only season

when he's surpassed his draft value. Overall, because that's the only season played more than 222 games. Yeah. Okay, dokey. Next questions from Travis and Colorado. Should I make this deal? 16

team Keep Forever Dynasty League. It's a points league with deeper, deeper rosters. and 14 minor league roster spots. Would you trade Joey Gallo and Geraldo Perdomo for Nelson Cruz and Kalenik? Hmm. Yes.

Yeah, that's a big prospect difference there. And I'm drafting Gallo ahead of Cruz, so... Yeah. So which side would you rather have, Scott? I would rather have... Oh, okay. Because Cruz and Kalenik are on the same side. Okay, all right.

Which side would you rather have Gallo and Pardomo or Cruze? I don't know why I have trouble with. It's always. I'd rather have the cruise side. I would rather have the cruise side too. Yes. From John, how early would you be comfortable drafting Shohei Otani in a daily lineup league where you can maximize his hitting and pitching contributions

by designating him as a hitter or a pitcher every day? Hi. Maybe as early as round four. And that he may still turn out to be a bargain there. We just don't really know when he's going to come back. pitch. But if you're always going to know the day of that you can get him in as a pitcher

and he performs like the high-end pitcher we think he is and then you get all of his hitting contributions in between and never have to start him on a day he's not playing. I mean, that's a game changer. What's really interesting to consider that I just thought about is

you know, they've talked about possibly using Shohei Otani as a hitter on the days he's pitching as well. I would assume they'll still want to rest him the day before and the day after he pitches, you could actually end up getting hurt by that in this format, right?

Because you're not going to get both the hitting and pitching stats if he does hit when he pitches. Right. But you would get hurt by that in every format. Yeah. You're going to get hurt much less, you're going to get much closer to the full extent of his abilities without the

and without any of the collateral damage in this format. I think there's a case to be made. Once Otani is fully proven it as a pitcher and this Tommy John stuff is behind him, in a daily league, he might be the single most valuable player. Yeah, so would you take him or,

let's say, Zander Bogarts in a daily league like this? I think I'd take Otani. I don't have specific daily league rankings and I'm not going to start

any anytime soon. I don't think it makes a huge difference for most players. No, it doesn't. But he's just such a unique case. By the way, if you Google image Hercules beetle larvae. Oh, come on, man. It's awful. It's just awful. Oh, my gosh. I don't need that in my life. Okay, this is from Andres Jones. Hey, Trot, Richard, and Mojo. Nixon's. Nixon's. Ten team head-to-head keeper league. That favorite. K-per-9 and quality starts,

we can keep three players for up to three years. Strasbourg in the fourth round, last year of eligibility. Darvish in the seventh round, first year of eligibility, Paddock in the 23rd year, 23rd round,

first year of eligibility. Remember, you can keep them up for three years. Pick two of those three. Strasbourg and Paddock. Done. Let's move on. Okay. Is like most animals, their offspring looks cuter than the adult version.

Not bugs. Insects are not. What I'm doing? Like, are we supposed? Bugs aren't cute. No, they're not at all. They don't have eyes. Eyes are what make things cute.

That's a great point. Look, they do have eyes. Their eyes are disgusting. They're like weird eyes. They're like buggy. They're disgusting, these Hercules Beatles. I hate them. So I don't have a name on this one.

Subject line is Bieber versus Sale versus Flaherty. I can keep two forever without giving up any draft picks. Pick two of those three, Beaver, Sale, Flaherty. Got to be Beaver and Flaherty. As much as I like to act confident about sale in 2020, there's got to be some questions about his longevity at this point. Would it change your mind to know that I saw someone tweet a video of Chris Sale throwing today? But I click or watch the video.

Hmm. No, yeah, that actually changes my mind completely. Beetle larva is much more interesting than that. You know what else is interesting? Gary Sanchez is ripped now. So let's talk about Sanchez versus Ray Amuto. And Rayamuto has been the number one catcher two years in a row. I actually think he was number two in points leagues last year, but number one in Roto.

He's got a top two catcher two years in a row. Sanchez can't stay healthy. Sanchez is selling out for power. Scott make the case. Rayamuto or Sanchez. And if we're talking about per game production, which is usually how I like to evaluate players, particularly ones that miss time due to injury,

it's really not close. Who's better? Like, Sanchez's ceiling is definitely higher. I'm surprised how big of a gap there is in ATP. It's not so much that Real Muto is going ahead of Sanchez, it's that he's going what is it like 25 spots ahead of

or is that many 17 16 spots ahead of Sanchez it's a big difference uh yeah no it's more than 20 I'm sorry I'm getting that's okay I'm calculating points per game per game Sanchez clearly much better I may be chickening out in a head-to-head

context just because Reno Muto is one of those rare catchers who plays virtually every day and particularly now that the Yankees have so many DH options, Stanton is going to get to play it the most, I would assume, but Andrew Har and they have so many corner infielders that they can't fit in the lineup. I don't think Sanchez is going to get a lot of time there.

So just from a playing time standpoint, I may go ahead and move Real Muto ahead. I think I've already done that, in fact. But in a Categories league, when you want impact production, Sanchez is going to hit a lot more home runs. I don't know that the points per game is as different as you think, though. Oh, it is.

Well, okay, I am only counting J.T. Rayamuto's points per game one season. I think Rayamuto's points per game last year were kind of underwhelming, as a matter of fact. 3.04. Gary Sanchez was at 3.14. the year before, Gary Sanchez was at 2.69, and he had a horrible season. His first two years, he was really awesome in terms of points per game, especially his first year. But obviously, he'll never be that good again. Yeah, but here's the thing about... It's not as big of the gap as I was wrong.

I sounded so confident, too. It wasn't as big of the gap as I thought. I believed you. But I think it's interesting that Gary Sanchez hit 232 this year and still average more points per game than J.T. Real Muto. But there's a lot of ways you can look at this. I mean, the last three months of the season, Rayamuto had an 898 OPS. And I remember

he had been very underwhelming. The first three months, he had a 750 OPS, but we kept saying on our show, the indicators look good. He's a bilo candidate. He's going to turn it around. Then he has this torrid second half with an 898 OPS for Rayamuto. And remember that number, 898,

because this was his OPS in his last three seasons with the Marlins on the road. 893, 897, 870. I mean, you really could argue. I'm not going to say that this is the case, but you could argue that he's like an 890 OPS guy based on his road numbers with the Marlins,

and then he did it for the second half of last year. That's amazing. Sanchez could get up there too, but Sanchez is just such, he's so annoying. It just swings for the fences all the time. He has no discipline. He gets hurt always. I understand the argument that he's a frustrating player to own.

Part of the reason, too, is, okay, so he already looks like he's better than Rio Muto on a per game basis. And then it seems like he underperformed his peripherals, too, on top of it. So I just think the upside is higher, definitely higher. It is. I agree. I don't know. I think particularly at that position, I'd rather shoot for the stars because there are enough decent fallbacks there now. Because even if you miss, we'll still land on the moon. Chris, who would you take in 20 seconds?

Ray Al-Muthor and Sanchez. Gary Sanchez. That was less than 20 seconds. Good job. Thanks to Chris and Scott. Great show. We learned a lot about nature today. Have a great weekend.

We'll talk to you Monday. probably Monday night on Fantasy Baseball today. See you later.