Fantasy Baseball Today - ADP Risers & Fallers! Justin Verlander to the Giants! (1/8 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ One of the biggest ADP risers in December was Trevor Megill (2:46)! ... Are we fading Ronald Acuña (9:37)? ... News (16:11): Justin Verlander signed with the Giants! ... Let's get back into ADP risers, starting with Lawrence Butler (26:42). ... Willson Contreras will be playing. first base in 2025 (33:25). ... Are we buying Tommy Edman (40:02)? ... Isaac Paredes is flying up draft boards (43:40). ... Who are some other ADP risers (46:18)? ... Let's talk ADP fallers, starting with Willy Adames (49:15). ... Why is Luis Castillo falling (51:54)? ... Is Royce Lewis somebody to target (54:32)? ... Jack Flaherty remains a free agent (56:20). ... Fade Rays starting pitchers (59:05)? ... We wrap up with the rest of ADP fallers (1:01:26)! Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, Rishing Dick. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Who's on the rise and who's falling down?

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. On Tuesday, January 8th, I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we have ADP risers and fallers throughout December. Why are they rising or falling? We'll try and figure out the reasons this is happening. And are we buying at the new cost? Plus, we do have some news.

Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander has signed with the Giants. Does it matter? Probably not, but we'll talk about it anyway. Let's jump right in with one of the biggest risers over the past month. And this is using 98 NFBC drafts in November, and then 126 NFBC drafts in December. So the sample size is slowly getting bigger. Still, things will change.

And in fact, they are already changing. And that's why we're seeing some big risers and fallers. And one of the biggest risers was Trevor McGill, reliever from the Brewers. And the reason here is pretty obvious. Devin Williams traded over to the New York Yankees, and it feels like Trevor McGill will just kind of slot right in as the closer. He did a great job in the first half of Lerner.

last season filling in for Devin Williams, but the ADP, if you look specifically from when the trade went down, was December 13th. So from December 14th on 121.9, the 14th reliever off the board.

Seven picks after Lucas Ersig, 20 picks after Ryan Walker, Scott. Buy or sell at this cost, Trevor McGill. So he's going after Erseg, after Walker. Just ahead of Kirby Yates and Alexis Diaz.

Well, okay, I'm trying to, I'm trying to, I'm trying to, what's the word? I'm trying to align that with my own rankings because I have Alexis Diaz much, much lower than that. Probably Lucas Erseg a little lower than that too. But Ryan Walker, if we're just comparing Trevor McGill to where he ranks against Ryan Walker, I guess I'm satisfied with that. I myself slotted, oh, you know what? I actually do have him behind her. I have Trevor McGill 15th in my relief pitcher rankings.

So I have him a little behind Kirby 8s, who I assume will be signing as a closer. Free agents tend to have their value suppressed in these NFBC drafts until they sign. It kind of makes sense for somebody whose role is so tied to his value like Kirby 8's. But I expect Kirby 8s to sign as a closer somewhere, and that's how I write. rank him.

McGill Erseg, that seems like a pretty close comp because neither is especially proven in the role. You could argue, actually, that McGill's a little more proven. In fact, didn't he make the, no, he didn't make the All-Star team. I kind of thought he did. But no, he didn't. Yeah, I think it'll be a fine closer. He was for the first half of last year. And, yeah, I don't know what else to say.

If you think a guy's going to get saves, if you think. he's good enough to hold up in the role. If you think he's pitching for a team that's going to be winning enough games to give him a good saves total, that's really all that goes into the assessment for closers. And I think, I think McGill, there's not much doubt who stands to step into that role for Milwaukee. Who do you think has more competition, McGill or Walker?

Walker does have a like proven closer on his own team. It's just someone that they went away from last year. But McGill has some really talented arms in the bullpen as well. It's just he was used ahead of YOL Pai-Amps last year. So we're assuming the same thing will happen this year. I do you consider YOL Pai-UL Pai-UPS to be really talented? He's a fine relief. I don't like I don't know if talented is the right way.

But like a career 304 ERA over 240 innings. Like I know he doesn't get that many strikeouts. but he's really good, I think. Yeah, I guess I would say, I guess I would say McGill has more job security than Walker because they were without Devin Williams for half the season last year, and they didn't go to him immediately, but they went to him pretty soon and stuck with him,

and he did fine. And Pye-amps, I don't think, is a closer caliber reliever. But we know Camillo DeVall, of course, is. Yeah, I'm not 100% sure Ryan Walker's the best reliever in his own bowl. open. But even so, it would take, it would take both Ryan Walker faltering and Camillo Duval getting back to being the guy we knew prior to 2024 for a change to happen. I think as long as both guys, McGill and Walker, do what they're supposed to do. They'll just be the closer all year. Yeah. And Ryan Walker is actually someone who's risen over the past month as well. His ADP in

November was 114 and then in December 102. So up about around is Ryan Walker. Walker, and I think every day that goes by that the Giants don't sign a reliever, and personally, I don't really think that they will. I think that just gives you a little bit more confidence in someone like Ryan Walker. Chris, I guess to throw your question back at you, who would you rather have between Trevor McGill and Ryan Walker? I have McGill three spots higher in my RP rankings overall, very similar in the overall rankings. They're separated by eight spots overall. And so, it's not really a strong take there. I should clarify, because I said McGill probably has more job security.

I do rank Walker higher just because I think Ryan Walker's better. It's not a big enough gap in job security that I'm going to have that be the reasoning rather than just how good I think the guy is. I will say I have Kirby Yates ahead of them both. And I, this is what I'm struggling with. I do have Lucas Erseg ahead. I'm not 100% sure how I feel about that one. I just, I think he's super talented. And so, I don't know.

But that's a very similar range, I think. I think Lucas Erseg is really good as well. But it kind of felt like the Royals wanted to give Hunter Harvey a shot last year too. And then he got hurt. And he's had trouble saying healthy in his career. But I would say of the three Ersig, Walker and McGill, I probably feel the least confident in Lucas Ersig's job. security. Like I said, he's the least proven in the role. Yeah, but he's good. I think,

I think he's a talented reliever. Like, there's no doubt about that. I do have like those three in a tier along with Alexis Diaz, whatever. And then Pete Fairbanks, who I think on a different team with less injury concerns, I think Pete Fairbanks might be a top 10 closer. I just, I'm not 100% sure what to make of it. But I have Kirby Yates, a, tear ahead. And I'm no longer confident Fairbanks is the best reliever in his bullpen either in addition to him showing no ability to stay healthy. So that's a different, they're both far down the like Alexis Diaz is one of my last ranked relievers who is currently slotted to close for his team. Yeah, Fairbanks feels like a pretty obvious avoid just for now just because the race have been

trying to trade him for it feels like over a year. year now and he can't stay healthy and he might not be the best reliever in his bullpen. So yeah, I totally agree. I think Fairbanks should be a little bit lower down this list. A notable faller over the past month, Ronald Acuna. And this one is pretty obvious. He fell from pick 20 in November to 26 in December. And that might not sound like a lot, but moving six spots that early in the draft, I mean, you go from a second to a third round pick in a 12-team league. I think that's pretty notable. And the reason Braves president of baseball operations

Alexanthopoulos reiterated in November that both Acuna and Strider will not be ready for opening day. We don't know exactly when they're going to be back, but Ronald Acuna coming back from a second torn ACL in his other knee. So now both knees have been reconstructed. Chris, what do you think here? Buy or sell at the cost of pick 26-ish for Ronald Cunia? It's so hard to say where Ronald Acunae should be ranked because the, answer right now, if you're drafting on January 8th, is very different than on, in, you know, March 22nd or whenever most drafts are going to happen because presumably we will have a lot more clarity about what not ready for opening day means. Because there is, I'm blanking on the name

of the Brave's beat writer, David Schultz, David. David O'Brien. David O'Brien. I think he has said that like Ronald Coon you might miss the first two months of the season upwards. Like that's been bandied about. And so I haven't seen like that sourced to a team personnel. I haven't seen that at all. I'm not. It's possible. It seems doubting it.

That sounds unreasonable, but it sounds speculative on his part. If he did offer that. And I know, you know, sometimes it's hard to interpret whose voice a beat writer is using when they say something. I'm a little surprised Acuna is, I have him 28th, so I guess I am in line with how he's fallen. but it's just kind of funny, I guess, that he had this torn ACL, which again is in the opposite knee, so it's not like it's the same surgery happening twice

and the same body part. But he had it a month earlier than the other one. And when he was coming back from that first torn ACL, by the end of draft season, I think he was pushed back into round one. And so he's going significantly later, even though he should be further along in his recovery from the second surgery. And I just find that interesting.

Like, obviously you shouldn't be drafting right now. I know some degenerates out there are. It's a very small number. Jeez, God. Listen, listen. Throwing around the D word. He calls him like you. I am.

I've drafted. I've drafted. Chris is drafted. I've drafted. What Chris says is absolutely right. Well, have you drafted a real, you are a degenerate if you drafted a real team. I've drafted one real team so far. You're playing in dozens of leagues if you're drafting teams now.

I do want to clarify, it was Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Okay. This was a report from looks like about a month ago. And I'll read it in full. The current projected opening day outfield would be Michael Harris, the second and center, Jared Kalenick and left, and Eli White slash Carlos Rodriguez slash write-in candidate and right.

So there is an obvious need for at least one outfielder to account for a CUNY's absence through most of the first third of the season. Most of the first third sounds like. Yeah, the way that's written is extremely vague and a huge amount of hedging going on there. So I don't know. We'll know more by the time people are drafting for real.

I would say right now, bye. I expect Ronald Ocuna to be better than he was last year when he's on the field, and I would take the under on a May first debut. Like he debuts before that. That was a confusing way to put it, I guess. Yeah. All right, fair enough. A bye there for Chris on Ronald LeCunia.

Before we take our first break, just a reminder that FBT is a finalist for Best Baseball Podcasts in the Sports Podcasts awards, and the winner will be determined by a fan vote. So we need your help. Scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube or click on the link in the episode description. Click that thumbs up once you get to the web page for FBT, punch in your info, and it's easy as that.

Help us bring home the hardware. Voting ends January 13th next week, so get those votes in now. We really do appreciate it. Let's take our first break when we return. We'll talk some news and notes and then back into risers and fallers right after this. Welcome back in News and Notes.

the old man, he's not done yet. Justin Verlander is signing a one-year, $15 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Verlander will be 42 years old on opening day. Not really sure how much he has left. He was limited to 17 starts last season, and once he returned from the aisle in the second half, he was pretty awful. Chris, your thoughts, Justin Verlander to the Giants. I think the chances of him ever being an impact player, again, are pretty limited.

As far as landing spots go, this is about as good as you could have hoped for. A very good home park to play in. Should be a decent defensive team, especially along the infield. And for as finished as Justin Verlander looked. And I've seen a lot of jokes going around social media of like Justin Verlander on the Giants. And then it's like a picture of Patrick Ewing and like an Orlando Magic jersey. Or Sammy Sosa on the Orioles or whatever. I saw Shaquille O'Neal in a Celtics jersey.

That already happened. Like that part of Justin Verlander's career has already begun. He got left off the playoff roster last year. Like it's hard for things to get lower than that. And I will point out, 548 ERA, FIP and all that stuff was terrible. 378 XERA. He actually did limit hard contact well enough. Before he got hurt last season, he had a 395 ERA.

He was okay. It's just the whiff rates on all of his pitches have completely. completely disappeared. Yeah. So like I think you're the best case scenario you're hoping for here is a, I don't know, Chris Bassett impersonation where he's just good enough that he doesn't hurt you. Even then,

like even if he's good as good as Chris Bassett on a per game basis, which I think the odds are pretty long. He's not going to give you that kind of volume in all likelihood. He's, he is aging and, and I think it's, I think, it's revealing that he only signed with the Giants,

a team that doesn't, that's not a surefire contender, not one with, I would say, serious World Series aspirations, when the only reason Justin Verlander is pitching is for competition's sake. You know,

he's made his millions, he's stamped his ticket for Cooperstown, he just enjoys the competition of it, and that he'd signed with a team that a one-year deal with the team like the Giants tells me he wasn't getting comparable offers from the teams that would more likely bring him to the World Series. So probably not worth drafting in a standard mixed league, right?

I think he'll be drafted in like half of CBS Sports Leagues, and he'll be like a streamer even in those. I have a hard time seeing him in any points league, given how shallow those are. It is a perfect ballpark. You mentioned that, Chris, just wanted to reiterate Oracle Park over the past three years

has the worst home run factor for hitters. So obviously that's a great thing for a pitcher, especially a five-ball pitcher like Justin Verlander. So maybe he can squeak out some value, but not really worth drafting in a standard mix league. The updated Giants rotation, by the way, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, and Justin Verlander.

It feels solid. I don't want to say good, but it feels okay. So we'll see what they can do. Brent Rooker and the A's have. agreed on a five-year $60 million extension, and Rooker had an incredible season last year. He hit 293, 39 home runs, 112 RBI, 11 steals, and a 927 OPS. He finished as the 15th overall player. And it looks like he's getting a park upgrade, too, going from Oakland Coliseum to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.

He did have surgery to clean up a forearm extensor injury. But Scott looks like Brent Rooker is sticking around with the A's. for the foreseeable future. His ADP in three January drafts is 76.7, which sounds pretty good. Yeah, it does sound pretty good. And I think his DH-only status helps a lot with that, because we always see the draft stock suppressed for those players beyond what's reasonable.

And it's less sensible in the case of Brent Rooker because we expect him to regain outfield eligibility in short order. They have talked about him playing more outfield. this year. I think wasn't there some kind of health issue that prevented him for doing it last year? Yeah. Yeah. He played like, I think five or six games in the first like month plus of the season and then just didn't play the outfield at all.

So even if he's not like a full-time outfielder, if they just used him the way they did last year, he should get outfield eligibility relatively soon. Before the end of April, yeah. So the other wrinkle, of course, is that he's kind of a one hit. wonder he was solid in 2023 as well but he wasn't he wasn't across the board's must start kind of stud and yeah you look at a stack cast page and there's a lot of red on it of course that itself can can sometimes be a mirage but i think for the cost there's not a lot of reason to harbor concerns about print rooker brandon woodruff is throwing bullpins twice per week and said Monday that he's in a quote really really good spot but not sure that he'll be ready for opening

day this is the second time we've heard something like this for brandon woodruff who is recovering from surgery on the anterior capsule in his right shoulder that he had in october of 2023 i did read that piece from mowb.com it was like the first time brandon woodruff has like talked about his recovery from the shoulder surgery at all i think is the way it sounded and um he He said it sounded more like he's not sure he will pitch in the first series because he's not sure if he will have earned that. That was my takeaway from what he was saying. Not that he won't be ready on opening day. His surgeon told him to have a normal offseason.

He said he feels good. He hasn't pitched. He has no idea where his velocity is. He said he's not doing that until he gets to the team facility, which I think is actually he's reporting like this week is what he said. So he's going to like get in the lab and see what everything looks like and get all the biometrics and all that. But he feels good and he is having a normal off season with the expectation that he will be ready for the start of the season. He's just not sure if he will be pitching on opening day or the first. I think they play in New York the first weekend.

So he's like, I'm not sure if I'm going to pitch in New York or after that. But my read on it was he does expect to be ready for the start of the season. And I'd rather take the fly on him than Justin Verlander. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's not a comparison. I'm bearish about Brandon Woodruff coming off this injury. And I suspect I'll have most of my pitching staff filled out by the time I consider taking him. But it's a lottery ticket given his track record.

Yeah. The ADP and three January drafts for three NFBC January drafts for Woodruff is two. So at that point in a 12-team league, you can, it has been falling. It was closer to 200 in November and it's actually, you know, come down. That's actually stunning. Yeah. And NFBC, you have no IL spots, so it's a little bit tougher. Yeah, maybe he is ready, you know, the first or second week of the season, something like that.

But you might want to be more careful and maybe plan to draft Woodruff in a league where you do have an IL spot. I have him 176th. Maybe I'm not bearish on Brandon Woodruff. I don't know. I feel like I am, but I'll be honest. I did not expect. When I said surprising, that was not like, oh, that's low. That's way higher than I thought it would be.

Okay. The raise and Drew Raspison avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $8 million extension. Rasperson has pitched really well in his career regardless of role, starter, reliever. He has had trouble staying healthy the past couple of years. but his ADP over the last month is 251. Rasta resource currently has Rasperson as the Rays SP6.

And there could be value in CBS leagues here because he has RP eligibility. So if he is a starter for the Rays, he'll be a spark in Head to Dep Points Leaks. So anything else here on Rasperson. Yeah, I'm not really sure how to approach him because I'm sure he'll end up making a lot of starts if he's currently slotted as the sixth guy.

I don't know. Maybe he'll end up making just a couple of relief appearances in April, and that's it, given, depending on how things shake out with the rest of the race pitching staff. But it's one of those in shallower leagues, like a head-to-head points league where you could take advantage of the RP eligibility, where it's going to be hard to, devote that roster spot to him for as long as it might take him to secure a full-time starting job.

I think it'll happen eventually, unless Rasmuson himself is the one that gets hurt. But I don't know that he's a high priority draft target for me as long as everyone is healthy, just because I don't trust that I'll hold on to him. Yeah, I totally hear that. But maybe he's someone you pick up later in the season. Again, like when he's pitched 310 in his career, 295, ERA and a 109 whip. So, yeah. It just the problem is, and this is always a problem with a guy like this who's RP eligible is his skill set probably fits better in a Roto league than a points league.

He's not going to get you many quality starts. He's not going to get you a ton of wins because he's not going to pitch deep into games. Partially because he plays for the race, partially because he has not shown that ability to. So that it's a tough one because the RP eligibility definitely helps. it's just tough for him specifically to take advantage of it. All right, let's get back into ADP risers, specifically. We'll get back into followers a little bit later on. But one name here, and Chris, we talked about Lawrence Butler,

either last week or a couple of weeks ago. Scott wasn't here, so I want to get Scott's thoughts. Up from pick 79 in November up to 71, which again, it doesn't sound like a lot. But pick 71 for Lawrence Butler, the reason I do not know. I think it's steamer projections came out, and Seamer is a projection system that you can find over on fan graphs, if anybody wants to look into those.

Steamer has projected Lawrence Butler to hit 253, 27 home runs, 90 run scored, 21 steals, and that equates to their outfielder 17 in Roto leagues, and outfield, I think, outfield 18 in head to head points leagues. I really like what Butler did, but, man, pick 71. Scott, buy or sell at cost, Lawrence Butler. I'm fine with it. I had to move him up, given the enthusiasm I've seen and not wanting to be outpaced on that enthusiasm.

Because I'm very enthusiastic about Lawrence Butler. I've moved him up to, in my roto ranking, 77th. So I'm not far off from 71. And, you know, it's a difference of positional need probably at that point or how much upside you want to secure at that point in the draft. whether or not I actually wait as long as 77th to take Lawrence Butler. But just a reminder of what he did when he broke through final three months of last season, 73 games. He had 302 with 20 homers, 14 steals, and a 943 OPS, and maybe as impressive as those numbers are,

maybe the most impressive number of all during that stretch is he struck out about 20% of the time. And I believe if you shrink that even more, the numbers look, if you don't start at July 1st, but start at mid-July, the numbers look even more impressive, including the strikeout rate. So the exit velocities were always there for Lawrence Butler. He clearly is an athletic player. And contact issues that held him back in the past for half a season, at least, he seemed to overcome them. And he's young enough to believe that's true growth rather than just something fluky that happened for three months. We all know for sure. I mean, plus, he's playing half his games at course field.

Sorry, I got transported from a year ago. We were having these exact same conversations about Nolan Jones. I was about to make that same comparison. Though Nolan Jones strikeout rate while improved last year was still way higher than 20%. Here's my problem. what did Lawrence Butler do between October when his ADP and NFC draft was 107 and December when it's 70? I don't, he might have had a good postseason. I can't remember it.

You can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember him doing a top. A lot of it's just a lot of it's just word of mouth, you know? It wasn't many. Yeah, it was 22. This is a really high price point for a guy who was, he's a weird prospect because he was like a first basement up until two years ago, I'm pretty sure. Like, you don't think that about Lawrence Butler, but he was like a primary first basement for a while until the last couple of years. and then his minor league numbers are, they're fine.

It's like a lot of 800 OPSs. And then all of a sudden, he has these great three months. It was really two great months. And then September was, I can't do a sixth round pick for a guy with that track record. I, if I'm wrong,

I'm wrong. You know, like that, that's fine. And like, I'm not so far off on that that it's like an unreasonable. But like, if Christian Yellich is healthy by the start of the season, I'd rather take that risk. I really like the skill set for Lawrence Butler. I remember once the season ended, I was raving. Man, I love Lawrence Buller.

Can't wait to draft him. But he's going ahead of names that are more proven than him. Luis Robert. Like Luis Robert is on a bad team, but his upside is still. higher than Lawrence Buller. I think. Lawrence Butler's not on a great team. I have Louise Robert a spot ahead of Lawrence. But like Sayas Suzuki,

Brian Reynolds, Anthony Santaylor, these guys are what I came down to for me. For what it's worth, I have Christian Yelich way ahead. Christian Yelich is one of the most undervalue played. He's 50 spot behind him. I don't want to get him tied up in this conversation. But for me, when I initially

made out my rankings, it was, okay, do I chase the upside of Lawrence Butler or do I play it safe with a Brian Reynolds or a Riley Green or I actually had Brandon Nimmo in that group too. It turns out Brandon Nembo is going way later than all of them. But that was the consideration for me. And at first I came down on the side of, okay, I want to play it safer this year. I'm going to go with the safe guys.

But the enthusiasm of Lawrence Butler was such that I was forced to reassess that or else just never get Lawrence Butler. and I think Lawrence Butler could be 30-30 with a solid batting average. Yeah, obviously you're not expecting that, but that could be the upside for someone with his talent. When you chase upside, you'll consider the upside. Yeah.

I mean, we could get into the whole, I don't believe in projections things, but I never draft a player with my eye on one singular outcome. I consider the range of outcomes, and the range for Lawrence Butler goes, the high end is very, very high. Right, but I was just reiterating 30-30 is like the high end of that range.

It's not like the median expectation. The low end is this is a guy who was sent back to the miners last year. Right. So that's the floor. I don't expect that to happen, obviously, but yeah, sure, that's within the range of possible. Send me more likely for him than Brian Reynolds.

If we're throwing 30-30 out there, We should also throw... I think 30-30 is more likely than sent to the minors. I don't know. Maybe. I just project his numbers out for the second half last year. It was more like 40-30. It's a dangerous game you're playing, Scott.

Let's get into Wilson Contreras, who is up from pick 94 to 81. So he has leapfrogged Will Smith of the Dodgers, and he is now going back-to-back with Cal Raleigh. The reason is that Contreras will play first base for the Cardinals in 2025, which gives him a clear, playing time advantage, and maybe it could help him stay healthy. Contreras has dealt with a lot of injuries in his career, and obviously playing catcher, I think you are

more susceptible to suffering injuries. So he's all the way up to 81. He's, you know, going right around Cal Raleigh. He's just behind Salvador Perez. Chris, buy or sell at cost. We'll see, Contreras. This is a tough one because he's my number five catcher and he's, what, six in ADP? Yeah, yeah, just behind Cal Rale. Yep. I have him to a round ahead of Cal Raleigh. It's just I have him 98th. So I guess sell on his overall price. I don't know.

I will say like since he got to St. Louis, his per 162 game averages, 263, 27 homers, 80 runs, 80 RBI, 8 steals, actually. I can definitely see it. And like to the point of, you know, your most. more likely to get hurt catching. When he got hurt last year, he's had a lot of like hamstring injuries in his career, if I'm remembering correctly, maybe some knee issues as well. But last year, I think the Cardinals wanted him to get better at framing.

So they had him sit forward closer to the batter and he got hit with a, I think he got hit on the arm with a bat and it broke his arm. So like that injury wouldn't have happened if he was playing first base. Maybe some other injury would have. Oh, yeah. Catcher's like beating. I think you're much more likely to get 150 games out of Wilson Contreras than almost any other catcher now. And he's a really, really good hitter.

Like he's a viable first baseman as a hitter. So I definitely think like I could be talked into him as high as third, honestly. It's it's, yeah, it's, I'm disappointed that he is going as high as he is because. It feels like a cheat code when you get a good hitting catcher at some other position where he's going to get full time at bats. And yeah, a lot less injury risk at first base than catcher. I wanted to comment on your, okay, I don't, I, how, you rank him what overall, Wilson Controls? 98. 98.

And the actual place he's going is 84. This is where I think the position. I'm about a round and a half lower on every. Yeah, it looks like. But this is what I was noticing as I was going through and picking out my sleepers breakouts

and busts for the first round of sleepers breakouts from us. I was initially looking at my overall ranking compared to NFPC and ADP and thinking, oh man, I'm way off on so many guys. But then when I go position by position, didn't feel like I was that far off from the consensus. So a lot of it's just where,

how you value positions as a whole relative to the consensus. And in the heat of a draft, you're not looking at overall ranking as much as what positions do I need at this moment in the draft. So I think it's less important how your overall ranking matches up

than how your position by position ranking does in terms of how much you're in line with consensus. Agreed. So I just want to put that out there. That's also my rationalization. I'm going to bump him up a little bit to get closer to Salvador Perez and

Yiner Diaz just because I don't think those guys are significantly better than Wilson Contreras playing first base. Yeah. So it sounds like a buy

for you, Chris. Scott? Yeah, I think so. Scott, yeah, or nay? I have him seventh at catcher behind Cal Raleigh and

Yiner Diaz. I know Yainer Diaz is really high in NFPC and that's, I don't know who else I have him behind to get him to fifth Wilson Contreras.

Probably Will Smith, right? Probably. But I think a lot of that was building in assumptions about how people are going to draft Will Smith and how people are going to draft Wilson Contreras. And if those assumptions are wrong and my rankings are leaving me no chance of getting Wilson Contreras and causing me to reach on Will Smith, then I probably need to adjust my rankings. So does that mean you want to draft him? It means I want to buy him.

I want to buy this. I want to fix my rankings so then I'm buying this. Fair enough. Let's take our final break when we return. We'll get back into some risers and fallers right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are comparing ADP risers from November to December over at the NFBC. And let's try and move a little bit faster.

I mean, for some of these, I don't know that there's much to say. I mean, we could probably just give like a buyer sell on some of these. But Tommy Edmund, not really sure why he's rising. He's up from 204 to 186. I know that he signed a five-year extension with the Dodgers on November 29th. Maybe it was just people realizing that he was undervalued because I kind of thought that all along. But in December, he was outfieler 46 Tommy Edmund going just behind Tyler O'Neill and Kerry Carpenter. Buy or sell at cost.

Pretty easy buy for me. Really? It sounds like I'm the odd man out on Tommy Edmund. I haven't ranked in the 150s, so. Yeah, I've got him a 150 exactly. 39th outfielder. I am 209th. I don't, I don't, and with the way the game has changed in the past couple years with stolen bases increasing and everything else, I don't see a lot of value in a 260 hitting 15 Homer 25 to 30 steel guy.

Like that, that just seems so plentiful, particularly if he's only eligible in the outfield, which sounds like could be the case for Tommy Edmund. and furthermore, he's going to bat at the bottom of the Dodgers lineup. Granted, it's the Dodgers lineup, but it's the bottom of the Dodgers lineup. So he's not going to be much helping run scored. It's really just a decent number of stolen bases and not totally being getting buried in batting average and home runs. I will point out his 162 game pace last season, 88 runs, 88 RBI. but you don't actually believe in ninth a ninth place hitter is going to do that. Well, I'm not sure he's going to hit ninth.

Highson Kim might be in the lineup. I would guess he's going to hit ahead of him. Yeah, look, I get it. But even if that lineup turns over, right? Like, Otani is there and then. Yeah. And I think you're, you're, come on. You're being too negative because I agree that like a standard Tommy Edmund season is

it's never been like the most exciting thing in the world. But it was mostly the scarcity of stolen bases that drove his value in fantasy, and that's not a thing anymore. His ADP used to be like a top 75 player. Now you're getting him, you know, 185. And we're kind of talking about how the drafts this year you want to get power early and speed in the middle of the late rounds. Edmund kind of feels like the perfect player to do that with.

And he's outfield eligible now only. there's a decent chance he's triple eligible by the end of April or at least double eligible. Like it depends what the, you know, we talked about this on Monday's podcast, but it depends on what permutated Tuesdays podcast. This is confusing.

It depends on what permutations the Dodgers end up going with, but there are realistic paths to him being the everyday second basement or the everyday shortstop. Oh, there is. There is. But right now he's outfield eligible and it sounds like his most. likely primary position is going to be center field. So that's a small matter anyway. If he's triple eligible, he'll still be pretty fringy in my book.

I just don't think that profile plays anymore. If he was batting leadoff, it'd be a different story. But whether he hits seventh, eighth, or ninth, I think he's going to get crushed pretty hard and runs in RBI, in addition to not providing much in home runs or batting average. and really 30 steals doesn't mean what it used to mean, if he gets that many. All right, well, it sounds like it's a buy for me and Chris,

and it's a sell for Scott on Tommy Edmund. Let's talk about ESOC Paredes, who was up from 281 to 222, but that number is even higher. If you look at since the Kyle Tucker trade happened, that number is all the way up to 199. So just inside of the top 200 for ESOC Paredes, the reason obviously traded from the Cubs over to the Astros,

the ballpark is a match made in heaven for his swing. And it's great line of context for the top half of the lineup where Paredes is going to be batting for the Astros. So Scott, what do you think here? Buy or sell Paredes just inside the top 200. I have him well inside the top 200. So I'm buying that he's rising, but I have him 132. Oh, okay. I'm not high enough then.

I think he's going to challenge Alex Bregman's typical stat line. in Minutemade Park because it's the pole side power. Like the way Isok Perretta is with such consistency has those extreme tendencies to the left field foul pole that's going to play so well

with the Crawford boxes. And as much as we saw his value plummet going from Tampa Bay to Chicago with the difference in dimensions of those two parks in that left field corner, we're going to see even more improvement as he heads to Houston with the Crawford boxes. Love it. Aggressive. Let's just compare him to other third basemen. So I mentioned he's just

inside the top 200. Would you rather have Paredes or Alec Boe? I'd rather have Paredes. Okay. Bowm is going 20. No what you said, Chris? Yeah. He's, Bowman is going 20 spots higher right now. What about Paredes versus Eugenio Suarez? Paredes. Swares. Okay. What about Paredes versus well, Scott, you mentioned Alex Breggman. Then we got to get all the way up because Breggman's ADP is 137 and Paredes is at 197. So a 60 spot difference in

ADP. What do you think? I mean, I have Breggman higher, which means I also have Breggman higher than ADP. And I think I probably have every infielder higher than ADP. It's one of those where overall ranking is going to be misleading just because you rank

certain positions higher or lower entirely. But yeah, I'd rather have Breggman in the Perettis. Chris? Bregman. Yeah. Breggman's still a free agent. We'll see where he lands.

There's been lots of rumors of the tigers, which would be not so good. I would take Paredes over Bragman if that had. But also the Red Sox have been rumored. So that would be... I would definitely take Bregman. That would be great. A lot depends on where he goes, yes. Last three risers here, I'm just going to quickly ask you, buy or sell.

Don't want to get too much into it. I want to get to some of the followers as well. Jordan Romano is up from 380 to 241. he signed a one-year deal with the Phillies. He could be the favorite first saves. They do typically kind of mix and match there with Rob Thompson as the manager. What do you guys think? Buy or sell at Pick 241, Jordan Romano. That's fine.

I have him higher than that, but I may just have all closers higher than that. Okay. What about Matt Shaw, who is the Cubs top prospect? He is up from 502 to 295. But again, since the Kyle Tucker trade, that's all the way up to 222 for Matt Shaw, who might have a opening day job at third base for the Cubs, buy or sell Matt Shaw at 222. I'm just thinking now, there's no way I have all closers higher than NFBC ADP does.

So I think I'm just higher on Jordan Romano specifically. But getting to Matt Shaw, I've also moved him up higher than ADP has. I have him at 187. And he's going to be on my breakouts list for this year, Big expectations for Matt Shaw. Chris? Push. That's right where I have him.

Okay. And then Michael Conforto is up from 482 to 310. He signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers. At the least, should be a strong side platoon. And, you know, had some great road numbers. Seems like his swing would play pretty well for the Dodgers. What do you think about Conforto 310 as outfieler 72? I like that he's trending up, but I don't think he's trending up.

enough as I said for Peritas and Matt Shaw I have him about a hundred spots higher than this and Michael Conforto is going to be on my sleepers list for this year very nice Chris I have him right around ADP all right another push there let's get you you skipped one name and maybe we'll just we'll save it for this are we doing sleepers breakouts and bust next week on the pod it's a good question because we're doing it on the site and yeah I don't we don't have to I think typically I wait for all three rounds of our sleepers breakouts and busts to be published before I do that. Well, Yvonne Herrera is my sleeper pick at catcher. I like a phenomenal quality of contact numbers last year.

I think my position on him is he is my plan B for my number one catcher and my plan A for my number two catcher. I'm really, really excited about Ivan Herrera. Yeah, he's up from 271 to 241. And with Wilski-Tcheris moving to first base, there's a clear opening there. Pedro Pahez is also there, so they could split time. But even if Yvonne Herrera only plays 100 games, I think he could be really good in those 100 games. So I am a buy at that cost, and he's going catcher 19.

And yeah, I would be all over that as my second catcher as well. Let's get into some of the big fallers in December. And Willie Adamas, down from pick 67 to pick 77, he signed with the Giants. Maybe he was being a little bit overdrafted early on, coming off a career year with the Brewers. He hit 32 home runs, 21 steals. He was a top 20 player, but it's a downgrading lineup. It's probably a downgrade in ballpark as well. And that first year of a big contract, new location, all that kind of stuff. What do you guys think? Willi Ademis, buy or sell at pick 77? I guess I'm okay with that. It's shortstop is a difficult position to wrap your head around

with NFBC ADP because you have Willie Adama's going 77th and you have Bo Bichette going about 77 picks later than that. And to me they're back to back at shortstop and wouldn't it all surprise me if Bo Bichet had the better season heading into last year, that would have been everybody's expectation. Everybody in the world would have expected Bichet to outperform Willie Adamas. So Willie Adamas feels too high to me, relative to other short stops?

Or, like, he's positioned right within the shortstop rankings, but he is not as secure as sort of the difference between him and the Bobichats of the world would have people believe. Yeah. And Willie Dombins is kind of on this shortstop island in terms of ADP, because he's the 10th shortstop, but he's going 26 picks after CJ Abrams, so two rounds later. and then 21 picks ahead of Matt McLean, who is the next shortstop being drafted.

So he's just kind of in the middle. He's on an island by himself there. Chris Byersel, Willie Donis, pick 77. You can't say push. You can't say push. I might have the opposite answer with Scott, where I have him ranked around 70. He's 82 for me,

but he's my shortstop 11. So that's fine. Push, but he is not a target for me. Can't say push. So sell. Sounds like a sell. Yes, there you go. That's what I was looking for.

Let's talk about what? How is that the opposite answer for me? I don't, I know. Look, man, he's my 10th short. Maybe I wasn't entirely listening. Oh, okay. I am really a dumb this year. I'm just going to reveal all my sleepers and breakouts and busts on this podcast.

Let's just do the podcast now. I'm certainly closer to him being a bust than I'm. I am him repeating last year. Yeah. Let's talk about Luis Castillo, who is down from pick 79 to 88, and I think the reason could be trade rumors, skill decline.

If you look at his home road splits in 2024, like every other Mariners starter, he was much better at home, Luis Castillo, 315 ERA 108 whip, 23% K-minus walk rate, and then on the road, 425 ERA-128 whip, 12% K minus walk rate. So not that those will just be his numbers

if he gets traded, but he might be a little bit worse. So what do you guys think, Luis Castillo, at pick 88, buy ourselves? Bye. Like, I'm not particularly excited about Luis Castillo, and maybe the context will change between now and when we do most of our drafts, and I'll lower him, but I have him like 71st, so I'll buy.

That's SP23 off the board, by the way. He's going right around Bailey Ober and Aranola. They're all going in a seven-pick span, basically. Well, this changes everything. Because I have Luis Castillo 84th overall right in line, but only 19. But I have 19th at starting pitchers. Yeah, I have him around the same rate place at starting pitcher. But, as I've often said, 15 to 50 is interchangeable to me.

So as long as Luis Castillo isn't 51st or 14th, then I'm totally on board. Okay. Would you guys be looking to fate him if he actually did get traded away from Seattle? I wouldn't matter to me. He was good in Cincinnati. It depends because, you know, it's always, it's so hard to say with like, because I've talked about that home road split thing for all of their pitchers and how dramatic those splits are. I don't think you can just look at it and say, okay, well, Luis Castillo is a four ERA pitcher away from Seattle or whatever it was. it's never quite that simple. So, you know, like most hitters,

hitters on the whole hit better in their own home parks than they do on the road. So you would expect pitchers to perform worse on the road, even if they don't play in Seattle. So like, I don't want to ding him too much for it. I guess he was more of a ground ball pitcher in Cincinnati and some of the pitch mix changes he's made. He's made in Seattle have made him more of a fly ball pitcher. so it's not totally fair to say he was good in Cincinnati.

But I think no matter where he's traded, if he is traded, he would still be in my top 50. Top 50 starting pitchers. Right. Which is as good as being 15th. Yes. Thank you for the clarification, Scott, because he kind of scoffed at my question.

You threw it away like, oh, why would you even ask me that? What a dumb question. I have to double check. Let's talk about Royce Lewis, who is down from pick 105 to 118. Not entirely sure why this is happening. Maybe. just being drafted a little bit too high early on. In some of those earlier drafts,

people kind of getting scared off by all the injuries that Royce Lewis has suffered so far in his career. He's still just 25 years old. He has not played more than 82 games in a season yet. It still could happen, but it hasn't happened. So what do you guys think here, Royce Lewis at pick 118, going about 20 picks after Junior Camerero

and just ahead of Jake Berger. I'd much rather have Lewis than Jake. burger to begin with. I understand that like his overall numbers last year were pretty underwhelming. I think a lot of that was just batting average. Like it was still a 30 homer 95 RBI pace. He's played 152 games at the major league level. Despite all the injuries, he's hit 33 homers, 104 RBI, 81 runs, 268 average.

I think if he managed to stay healthy, that would be a pretty reasonable expectation for Royce Lewis. So I'm not holding the struggles last year against him too much. I think he's a buy at this price. Scott? You know what? He's the ninth ranked third baseman for NFBC ADP, and he's also my ninth ranked first third baseman, excuse me.

Sixth for me. And yet I have Royce Lewis ahead of junior commonero. So I'm not sure exactly. Chapman. Chapman, I guess. That's probably who it is. Yeah, I would guess. Yeah.

Yeah. for the most part, I agree with this, though. It's, you know, we could quibble over the numbers, but I think Royce Lewis is landing about the same spot at third base as he is, for me, as he is for ADP. Jack Flaherty is down from pick 125 to 140. And again, the reason here, not entirely sure he has not signed yet. He's still a free agent.

Maybe people kind of digging into the numbers and realizing he was worse with the Dodgers last season, then he was pretty bad in the postseason as well. He has an extensive injury history history. The ADP is 140 as the 40th starting pitcher off the board. Buy or sell on Jack Flaherty here. At starting pitcher, that's almost exactly where I have him. Same.

So I'm going to buy it. I guess I'm a little higher than 40, but not enough to quibble about. And he'll probably move up to closer where I have him when he signs because free agent's value is suppressed. Yeah, this is one though where like, if something comes up in the medicals, which happened when he got traded to the Yankees and then they backed out,

it's going to crash. And I think the contract could tell us something, right? Because like, yeah, sure. A 20, what is he, 29, 30? He wants a five-year deal. I don't see that happening. I don't see that happening either. I don't know.

You look at the track record. You look at the season he just had. Like, this kind of guy gets 5-120. you know like injury history though what was the contract that marcus stroman signed a year ago it was like 580 right

no with the yankees I think it was a two year deal with a vesting option for the third year um yeah I don't know man maybe I'm maybe I'm off base here but it feels like you know 485

whatever the the actual 4100 whatever they like that feels like it could be within the realm of possibility for Jack Flaherty. So if he signs... You said five, though. It's one fewer. If he signs for... But if he signed

127, then I think you have some real concerns about how the people who are smarter than us view him. Of these three possible suitors, where would you want him the land most? The Blue Jays, the Cubs, the Tigers. Those are rumored teams right now. I think... Tigers by far.

Going back to the Tigers would be the perfect scenario because after he was traded to the Dodgers, he wasn't as good. It's worth noting. So I'd trust him in the hands of the Tigers more than any other team. Plus, there's good pitchers part. Also been some talk about him going back to Baltimore, which would be interesting. I just don't think it's going to happen now that they signed Charlie Morton, but I could be wrong. I don't disagree with you. That is just such a stupid sentence to be like a reasonably true thing.

Yeah. Next two are going to be a double dip here. Ryan Pepio and Shane Boz, spoiler alert on Scott's bus list, I believe. Pepio is. Got it. Pepio down from 156 to 165. Shane Boz down from 159 down to 171. And I think as more people start to research the race playing their home games in George Steinbrenner Field,

same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. And we spoke about this yesterday. You'll have the Florida heat and humidity. The ball will fly a little bit further. And Tropicana just plays really well for strikeouts and for stuff. So all around just kind of feels like a bad recipe for some raised pitchers right now. But what do you think of these updated price tags? Ryan Pepio at 165, Shane Boz, just behind at 171.

I dislike the, even though Pepio is the bus pick for me, I dislike the cost for Boz more. I feel like the gap between these two should be bigger in terms of where they're going. I don't know if that's people being just totally invested in upside for Boz, who obviously has a lot to prove still. It's not like he came back last year and looked and was dominating like he did prior to Tommy John. Was it Tommy John? Yeah, it was Tommy John.

It's not like he came back and he looked exactly the same. So I think there's a lot to sort out here for Boz. I do need to have him as a bust Vic for that reason. But yeah, I guess that's the one I sell more than Pepio, just looking at the ADP. The problem with Pepio is he had this dominant dominant four seamer last year. Like one of, if not the best, whiff rate for a four seamer for any starter in baseball, 32%.

What we know about Tropicana and how, like Nick Pollock talked about on the previous podcast, how it impacts induced vertical break for four seamers, especially. It seems like leaving Tropicana could be a recipe for disaster for Ryan Pepio. So I have them, those two and Todge Bradley in a fairly similar range. I think they're separated by 12 spots in my overall pitcher rankings. But I sell this price as well. They're outside of my top 50. I have five more.

I'm just going to quickly rattle them off. You give me a buyer sell. Michael Kopeck is down from 173 to 185. Just to give you some context, Blake Trinen is going at pick 356. So buy or sell Kopeck at 185. I sell it. I don't think he's going to be the Dodgers closer.

And I think those who do are getting a bad deal. They're being bamboozled. I don't know that the Dodgers are going to have a set closer, but I think Blake Trinon enters is the favorite. I agree with that. And they've also been linked to Tanner Scott all offseason. So I just do not want to put anything past the Dodgers the way that they've spent money. There was a report that I saw yesterday.

Maybe from Bob Nightingale. Or now Chris Cotillo from Cotillo. I don't know. That Tanner Scott might get 20 million per year. Yeah. Which has happened exactly one time for a reliever in the history of Major League Baseball. Is that Josh Hater? No, Edwin Diaz is the only one who's eclipsed 20 million on a deal as a reliever.

So like, kudos to Tanner Scott's agent for either getting that offer or getting that in the press. Because that, Tanner Scott's good. Having been a person who had Tanner Scott on his team, he is way less fun to watch when he's on your team than you think he is. Yeah. I think the rumor deal is three for 60. So we'll see if Taylor Scott. That's wild. actually gets that. Zach Netto is down from 145 to pick 191. He had right shoulder surgery in

early November. He could miss the start of the season. Shoulder is pretty tough. It could sap some of your power. And returning from surgeries like this, it could linger. Not definitely, but it could. What do you guys think about Zach Netto at 191? Seems a little too cautious to me. It stands to reason that in 15 team league, you're going to safeguard against injury more because your alternative when waiting out that injury are going to be significantly less. But I have, I have Zach Netto quite a bit higher than this. He's 21st at shortstop to do the position ranking. And I have him 14th. So yeah, that's a pretty big difference. Obviously, I'm willing to adjust as more information becomes

available in March, but it doesn't sound like he's going to miss a ton of time. All right. And lastly, I couldn't really understand why this player was dropping. And it's Jackson Job. He's down from 262 to 323. And maybe people just thought he was being drafted too early in earlier

drafts. The Tiger signed Alex Cobb but still feels like there's a rotation spot available for Jackson Job to start the season. What do you guys think by yourself Jackson Job 323? He has had a lot of trouble staying healthy in his career. I don't know if he's eclipsed 100 innings.

He did just eclipse that last year. No, 95. So, like, I think there's some reasonable hesitancy, but I think he's going way too low. Given how excited we get about prospects of Jackson Job's caliber, I don't really see why he should be this low. Like, I get that he wasn't super impressive in his MLB debut, but super small sample, too.

Yeah, it's four innings and one in the, like, okay, he didn't get swinging strikes. He threw like 100 pitches total. I also was a little disappointed in his minor league work last year. The strikeout rate was down. The walks were up. Neither was good, as good as we'd want them to be from the top pitching prospect in baseball. And then there's the durability question on top of it. That said, 320 is beyond free in most fantasy leagues.

Yeah. So that seems too low just from a lottery ticket standpoint. That's all I think Jackson Joe is this year is a lottery ticket. Maybe if you're lucky, he'll be somewhere in between Jared Jones and Paul Skeens, probably closer to the Jared Jones in. But that's what you're hoping for, you know? and if it doesn't work out, whatever, you gave up a 250th pick for him.

But he's going quite a bit later than that even, and I find that surprising. Maybe pitchers are just going lower as a whole, but there are some other pretty interesting names going right around him in that 320-ish range. Nestor Cortez, Brian Beaux, Mitch Keller, Merrill Kelly, Kumar Rocker. Some of those names sound kind of interesting.

I think Jackson Job's a lot more interested than Kuma Rocker could be pretty good. Well, yeah, but he's got, I think, even bigger questions about his job, let alone production. Like, we have a much smaller sample size of Kumar Rocker being a high-end pitching prospect. And I think he was arguably less impressive than Jackson Job and a bigger sample size last year. I think we know Brian Beyo and Mitch Keller are not difference makers. So yeah, give me Jackson Job over those guys. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Friday. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.