Fantasy Baseball Today - ADP Risers/Fallers, TGFBI Updates & Shift Restrictions (3/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 7, 2022

Join our FBT March Madness Bracket for a chance to join our listener leagues- cbssports.com/FBTbrackets We don't have a CBA agreement yet but drafts are happening (1:00)! What happened in the Scott White Dynasty League on Sunday? ... What's the latest in the labor negotiations (3:45)? ... There's talk that defensive shifts could be restricted starting in 2023 (4:45). What does it mean for Fantasy Baseball? ... What would larger bases change (12:00)? ... What's the latest on our TGFBI teams (13:10)? How did our teams turn out in this 15-team 5x5 Roto industry league? ... Who are the biggest ADP risers over the past month? Pete Alonso or Matt Olson? How high can Marcell Ozuna rise? ... Who are the biggest ADP fallers over the past month (47:40)? Why are mid-tier starting pitchers dropping?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Happy Monday and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on March 7th. My dad's birthday. The gang's all here.

Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers today on the show. We've got some updates on the labor negotiation between the MLB and the Players Association. We've got some drafts going on. What do our TGFBI teams look like? And then we've got ADP risers and fallers over the past month. But unfortunately, another weekend goes by

no baseball agreement yet, but drafts are a happening. The Scott White Dynasty League salary cap draft was on Sunday, and it was fun. What's going on, Scott? How do you like your team? You're muted, by the way, before you even start. Just want to make sure you know.

And so then I took my camera away, frantically clicking to on... I only muted myself because, you tell me to mute myself before we start FWIW. But yeah, no, I mean, it's more of a free agent draft, obviously, because the majority of players are kept. I think there were more players kept this year than ever before. Not that I keep records or anything,

but that was my sense of things. So I only bought two. I bought Zach Granky. I bought Tony Kemp to be my starting first baseman. This is a 2014 team league. It's worth pointing out. and I'm pretty happy with that. That's, you know,

Zach Grinky was like the fourth best pitcher who wasn't kept or something like that, which is all so crazy. I would say only two starting pitchers who you expect to be drafted universally weren't kept. You Darvish and Clayton Kirshaw. So it's just,

it seems improbable that the rest of the pitcher crop for like a standard 12 team league would all have salaries that make them worth keeping. It's just, it's bizarre. Yeah, no, that's the nature of the beast, man. 24 team head-to-head points league. You know, people are dying to get their hands on some pitchers in this league.

You Darvish went for $64, which is, it sounds crazy. It is crazy. Alex Cobb went for $39. I drafted Kyle Hendricks myself for $36. So that tells you where we're at when it comes to the starting pitchers. What's going on? Chris. Not too much. Not too much. I'm okay with how my team, I actually like, I, for the first time ever, I feel pretty good about my team as a whole. I've been in this league for six or five or six years now probably, and I've never committed to a full rebuild. And so I've been just like kind of trying to tape over whatever my team's flaws are with the draft by usually drafting like two high price players and then just hoping they're good enough. This year, I actually have a pretty good.

good team, mostly in the pitching staff. And then I was able to add Joey Votto, Marcelo Zuna, Craig Kimbril. So I feel okay. I mean, I got a couple other guys, but that's the main hall today. So I don't know. I feel like I'm going to compete this year

as long as I don't get too many injuries. Don't forget about Robinson Kano. You found, you wound up with Robinson Kano for three months. I got a $3 Robinson Kano. I mean, that was somebody I was open to get for a buck at my second base instead of Tony Kemp.

$9. Gary Sanchez? Who knows? Who knows? Who knows indeed? Let's get people caught up on the latest when it comes to the labor negotiations.

The Players Union made a proposal on Sunday. They lowered their ask for the pre-arbitration bonus pool from $85 million to $80 million. So came down a little bit, but there's really not a lot going on. No change on the CBT

or the minimum salary. They would grant the MLB. I know people don't like that. MLB ability to implement three specific on-field changes with 45-day notice, starting with 2023, pitch clock, larger bases, and a shift restriction, which we'll talk about in just a second. Owners were not happy with this offer overall, and the word that they use to describe the negotiations where they're at at this point, quote, deadlocked. So I would imagine that we get

some kind of announcement, you know, by the end of this week, if nothing happens, that they're probably going to cancel another week's worth of games, but keep your fingers crossed and anything that happens, we will obviously keep you guys up to date. The interesting part of this shift restriction, I don't really know the details of it. I don't even know that they know the entire details of it yet, but this is something that wouldn't go into effect until 2023. So it's not for this season,

but maybe if you play in a Dynasty League or a Keeper League, you know, it's something that you're starting to think about now for the future. And Scott, I mean, I think the biggest takeaway initially is this would help left-handed pull hitters, right? like Joey Gallo and Max Kepler, Cody Bellinger. I looked over the past three years, the leaders in pull rate, and a lot of them were lefties, Anthony Rizzo on that list, Matt Olson. I feel like by 2023, you know, maybe this helps with their batting averages.

Yeah, it could help a lot. I mean, obviously we have to find out exactly what it means. And if it'll be implemented, just because they've agreed to it in theory, I mean, there are all these little tokens like that. Like, it's not a major negotiation points, just a little token. offering from one side to another. And I feel like at some point in the struggle over, you know, every side feeling like it got as much as it possibly could get,

some of these tokens are going to stick and some of them are going to be taken away. So we'll see what actually happens with it. And again, what it actually means, because there are tons of shifting that's happened. It's been around in the game forever. It's just really in recent years we've seen this dramatic shifting where you get three infielders on one side of second base. What I'm guessing is it'll probably be something like two infielders have to line up on each side of second base, something just to kind of eliminate the most dramatic,

the most drastic versions of this. But yeah, I mean, I've been doing this long enough that I remember life before those shifts started. And once they did start, you saw dramatic drops and batting average for certain players. I know Brian McCann comes to mind. He went from being a 300 hitter to like a 230 hitter around the time the shifting started. I don't know that it all has to do with that. But that's one example.

I think Mark Tashara stands out. Well, to just put some numbers on it, Anthony Rizzo last season had a 174 OPS on pulled ground balls. That's really, really bad. And so, yeah, you would think that someone like him, I mean, obviously he's at a point. in his career where it may not matter much, but yeah, that's the kind of hitter you would think would stand to benefit. You look at like Carlos Santana was someone who only had a 316 OPS on pulled ground balls.

Mitch Hanager, 338, 154 average. Very few of these guys are ever getting extra base hits on these plays. But then it's interesting because you also have like Tim Anderson's a right-handed hitter, but he had the eighth most pulled batted balls on the ground last season. actually didn't do all that well on them. 455 OPS is roughly average-ish. So there could be room for that. It would be a really slow right-handed hitter.

Yeah. Extreme shifting work as well against you. For what it's worth, Albert Pooholz's batting average plummeted around the time the shifting started. And he was not a very fast right-handed hitter. So I kind of always wondered if it ruined him too. But yeah, Tim Anderson, it doesn't be like a perspective against him. It's going to be hard to know like what the, how it's going to impact individual players,

because the sample says we're dealing with each season are relatively small anyway. You're talking about the most batted balls on the ground to the pull side last season was 140 for Tommy Edmund. So that's still like to be able to say definitively one way or the other, it's going to be really difficult, I think, to know. But yeah, you would think a Joey Gallo type. that would be the type of player you would think would benefit. Yeah, I mean, if you've seen the extreme shifts against guys like Joey Gallo, where they have like six guys in the outfield against him, it's pretty crazy. And I don't know, maybe I wouldn't call myself a baseball purist,

but I really do wish some of these guys would just drop a bunt down. Like, maybe it's easier said than done, but like, if they're given it to him. Well, it's definitely easier said than done. Just take it. I don't know. It's, it's very frustrating. I saw there was a quote that came out from him recently. it's just, it's kind of embarrassing. These guys are professionals, right?

It's the same thing about like in the NBA. Why can't these guys hit free throws? But anyway, that's, I guess the conversation for another podcast. Would you like to know who led baseball and bun hits last season? Sure. Joey Gallo. Mm. All right.

It's seven bun hits last season. Now you could argue it should be more. And Bryce Harper had four and Shoha Tani had four. And so some of those guys are doing it. But maybe they should do it more often, I guess. I don't know. It's always a tough balance to strike because the defenses are clearly making the decision that that's something they're willing to give up.

But how often would need to happen for them to stop? Or how often would Joey Gallo have to go for it for them to stop? It's, you know, it kind of gets into like the Barry Bond's intentional walk thing where at what point is it a self-defeating strategy? I don't know, but it's interesting. I'm for it. just banning shifts just because I think it makes the game less interesting with shifts,

like the way the game is played right now and the way like, like Joey Gallo hitting 110 mile an hour line drive right at a second basement playing 120 feet into the outfield. Like that's just bad. Like I just think that's like, you can do the like,

oh, well, he should learn to hit it the other way or whatever. And like Tony Gwynn, and it's like Tony Gwynn was facing guys who were throwing like 87. Yeah. You know, like, Joey Gallo's face.

chasing left-handed relievers through 98. The extreme shifting has contributed to the three true outcomesing of the game because, you know, that's kind of, that was kind of the thinking also behind the flyball revolution as well, let's just hit it over the shift and then we don't have to worry about it. Exactly. So it's made the game less interesting. And if people try to claim the other way around. If defenses are more efficient at turning balls and play into outs,

the value of a ball in play decreases. And so it reduces, if your chances of turning any given ball and play into a hit are lower, then the penalty for a strikeout is lower. And so I think these are all just kind of self-reinforcing things. But the other way you could look at it is if defenses are going to be less efficient

at turning bad at balls into outs, pitchers will probably be more incentivized to get strikeouts. So it's it's kind of just all of these feedback loops that are hard to get around. Yeah, I mean, to Scott's point about the three true outcome becoming as prevalent as it is, analytics say that it's more likely that you'll score a run on a home run than on station to station offense, right? Like trying to string together three hits. That's basically where the game is at. So again, it's people are trying to hit the ball over the shift rather than into the shift. So it could be interesting, you know, change the game back up a little bit.

Maybe we see batting averages on the rise, power come down a little bit, but we've got quite a bit of time before that happens. I do like the larger bases idea. What's the point of that, Chris? I mean, I don't know. I haven't read too much about it. I think to reduce injury risk, you know, so that there's more real estate. But I think also this was one of the things that they tried out in the minors. And I think part of it is to increase.

I think there's like an infinitesimal small amount of increase on the likelihood of any given infield ground ball being turned into a hit because there's slightly, less ground to cover. And I think the same idea for stolen bases. And so there was a piece in the athletic or Grantland. I can't remember which one, but one or not Grant. The ringer that went through some of the things that they did in the minor leagues last season, as far as like limiting the amount of times you could throw out of first or they did play with larger bases in one of the minor leagues as well.

And I think one of the impacts of larger. basis was a slight increase in stolen bases. So, you know, I'm here for that. All right. Well, uh, let's get into our TGFBI teams. I mentioned there's some drafts going on. So we'll quickly run through, give people an update. We've been talking about these the past week or so. Again, these are 15 team five by five roto leagues. And Chris, we haven't heard about your team in a while. So what's the latest? What are we looking at? Offense and defense. Offensive defense. Hitting and pitching. Yeah. So we'll, I started with, um, I'm trying to figure out how to pull the grid where I can see where I drafted.

But I'll just go by position. So I've got Salvador Perez a catcher. Right now, Luke Voigt is my first baseman, although Alex Kirillov is also first base eligible. I've got Catel Marte at second base. I've got Corey Seeger and Bobby Witt at shortstop. I've got Ehuhenio Suarez and Alec Boe at third base. My outfield is Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout, Joe Adele, Connor Joe, Alex Kirillov and Julio Rodriguez, and I've got Nelson Cruz as a utility player.

And then my pitching staff is at Sandy Alcontera, Sandy Alcantara, Charlie Morton, Craig Kimbril, Eduardo Rodriguez, Patrick Sanibald, Tony Gonsolin, Jesus Lazzardo, and Zach, Pleas, so a lot of guys that you know I like, a lot of guys that I've talked about quite a bit so far. So that's where I'm at. I don't know what you guys think about that. I mean, it sounds pretty fun. You don't have a second catcher yet, it sounds like? No second catcher yet. No, no. You know, we'll figure that out when we get there. We have a lot of similar players, Chris. We were talking about it before the show. A lot of similar players who are fun.

Yeah, yeah. Like, this is a weird draft for me in that, like, I'm not usually the guy that takes prospects. But it felt like, you know, I think I got Bobby Witt, like around 110th overall. I got Julio Rodriguez after 250, I'm pretty sure. And so there were enough opportunities for me to take the chances on fun, exciting guys. I'm light on stolen bases, I think, right now. I'm relying pretty heavily on Ronald Acuna and Bobby Witt for projected steals. Although Julio Rodriguez and Joe Adel could give me some of those as well.

But overall, I'm pretty happy with this team. Look, if nothing else, it's a fun team, Chris. You've got a few prospects on there. You've got Joe Adel, someone we all like Connor Joe. a few players that we are all definitely in on Sandy, Charlie Morton. So it sounds like a pretty fun team overall. The thing that's tough about this league is, and I think most leagues,

you know, most leagues don't play with like a minor league spot or anything like that. Yeah, you know, if you draft Julio Rodriguez, we don't know when he's going to be up. He could be there on opening day, theoretically.

He could be up two months into the season. We just don't know. But obviously, the upside is massive. Scott, I know that you have wound up with Julio Rodriguez on your team as well. What is that team looking like?

Yeah, so I got Julio Rodriguez, I think, 266th overall it was, around 18. So I got him a little later. He was the 21st round pick for me. Yeah, I made sure to get him. I wanted that upside. Because I think he's going to be up sooner than later. I mean, if there's any team that should be in a spot to push the envelope with the top prospect like that, it's the Mariners because, you know, they just missed last year, 21-year playoff drought.

They just signed Robbie Ray to a big deal. They should be all in on this year. So that's what I'm hoping for. And he got called up to AA last season and was awesome. Yeah, he made it there as 20-year-old. At AA. 1,000 OPS between AA and high A with 13 homers and 21 seals and 74 games. Yeah, so I want them in all the deep leagues.

Now, you bring up an interesting point, Frank, because this, this, this, TGFBI uses NFBC as the host site. and one of the weird things about NFBC is there are no IL spots. They just don't exist and you have a normal size bench. So historically in deep leagues like this, in like Taute Wars, for instance, which is a 15-te-te-wears, for instance, which is a 15-teamor in even deeper leagues like NL and AL only, I like filling out my bench mostly with prospects

and just, you know, rolling the dice that a couple of them come up soon and make a big splash right away. And historically, it's paid off for me. But I've struggled in these leagues hosted by NFBC because that lack of IL spots, if you devote too much of your bench to those like lottery tickets that you can't use until you can use them, once players start getting hurt,

you don't get an extra roster spot to deal with that. In a 15-team league, it's harder to drop those guys. Right. Because you're not going to have a lot of. of options on the waiver wire. I'm not going to drop Julio Rodriguez until he comes up and fall flat on his face, right? You never know when he's coming up.

So I'm trying not to do too much of that in this league, this time, as much as I don't like that. I have to do that. It's just the way it is. The hope is that this year, with the hoped for changes in the CBA, that those guys will get called up earlier.

Yeah, hopefully that contributes to it. I mean, that's, in theory, part of what the players are trying to do is get rid of the service time manipulation. We don't have a lot of details on what that actually looks like as far as like the carrot for teams to not manipulate service time. I think there was talk of potentially an extra pick if you have a guy finish in the top something in Rookie of the Year voting, I think was one of them. So until we have more details, it's hard to know exactly how effective that's going to be. Yeah, and I don't, I mean, the most, the ideas that sound like it would really address it, have, they seem way in the rearview mirror now, like the players just moved on from that a long time ago. So I'm not really holding my breath that anything's going to change significantly along those lines.

But anyway, getting to my team here, so this was the draft where I started Vladimir Guerrero and Freddie Freeman, remember. And I talked on our last show about how that meant in round 13 I had to pass on Nelson Cruz, because there were too many corner infielder's I liked, and, you know, I only had that one utility spot left for them. I ended up taking Luke Voight in round 17. My third baseman is Alex Bregman in round seven, so I'm good there. Up the middle, I got Willie Adama's at shortstop, Jose Altufe, second. So my infield is strong as it tends to be for me.

Outfield, where I went a little weaker. Christian Yellich in round eight. Could have gone Kyle Schwerber there. I didn't have really any stolen bases to speak of at that point. So I kind of gambled and... I like the pick. Yeah, I was hoping they'd still get Schwerber on the way a bit later, but it didn't work out. So I got Yelich there as my number one outfielder.

Hunter Renfro is my number two outfielder. I took him instead of Nelson Cruz that round. Joe Adele is my number three outfielder. That was the first big upside play for me in round 15. Julio Rodriguez is my fourth outfielder, another big upside play. there. Lane Thomas is my fifth outfielder. So getting a little bit of speed there, hopefully, is the Nationals' expected lead-off man. And a little power, too. Probably more power than speed, frankly. So I didn't mention my middle infielder. That's O'Neill Cruz, who I took in round 16. Another swing for the fences there. Got a lot of those round 15 and beyond, which is probably the way to do it, right? We don't know exactly when he's going to be the Pirates starting shortstop. He was up at the end of last year, played two games,

so I'm hopeful it'll be sooner than not, even though it's the Pirates. He was on a 40-40 pace in the miners, basically last year. Nikki Lopez, I've said a lot, is kind of my steals guy, my preferred late-round steals option, and I could have gone him instead of Cruz. I still hope to get him on the way back, but it didn't work out. I mean, I lost out on Nikki Lopez, and that's why I took Luke Voigt instead for my utility spot. I missed out on Kyle Hendrickson, Carlos Carrasco, two of those three forgotten aces I target late.

I did get Zach Branky. I guess I should go through my pitching stuff real quick. Kevin Gosman, Charlie Morton, like Chris has, Ranger Suarez, Adam Wainwright, Mike Clevenger, Tony Gonselin, and Zach Granky. That's one through seven my starting pitchers. I like all of them. My only closer so far is Camilla Duval. So I'm probably, I don't know, like Chris Stratton's, maybe the only hope that left for saves.

But they'll always be there on waivers. So hopefully Deval keeps me from falling too far behind in the category. I love the O'Neill Cruz pick, Sky. I know you were debating him versus Nikki Lopez. Nikki Lopez, but 10 times out of 10, I would take the upside on O'Neill Cruz. I think Nikki Lopez is fine. But look, I think you could get like a 20 homer, 10, 15 steel kind of guy out of O'Neo Cruz,

depending when he's up, but I think it's going to be pretty soon. Potentially much more. That's the thing. That's the whole. It could be 20-20. You know, it could be 25 homers, 20 steals. I mean, that's like 90th percentile outcome. Yeah, I mean, this is like, you know, the high-end outcome for O'Neill Cruz.

But he showed that potential last season. He hit a home run, like, what, he played, like, two or three games. He hit his first home run last year. I think he has the hardest hit ball by a Pittsburgh pirate ever. And I actually found on baseball America for the top 100 prospects. They had the average exit velocity for every hitter in the top 100 prospects. And O'Neill Cruz was number one. Like he, 94 miles per hour was his average exit velocity in the miners last year.

That is amazing. Wow. Yeah. That's that's top tier stuff for sure. That's great. Yeah. And look, you spoke about not using too many spots on your bench for either prospects, or players who are hurt to start the season.

And typically, I've played in a lot of NFBC leagues. I don't like to devote more than two spots of those myself. So whether it's a prospect that you're stashing or an injured player or just two injured players, I like to have those two spots dedicated to that because what's unique about the NFBC is you could set your hitter lineup on Monday and Friday. So you kind of like some flexibility,

and maybe some players that have good matchups over the weekend so that you can kind of interchange things. So I like to have that flexibility. on my bench. I know. I still got my eye on like Jose Miranda and Nolan Gorman, and Fidel Bruhan's still out there. I could use some more steals. So I may end up

doing it anyway. And just hoping, just hoping enough of those guys come up soon enough. But I remember one of these leagues last year I drafted the trifecta of Jared Kelnick and Wander Franco and

somebody else. And they just, they all took forever to come up. And, you know, they weren't even that great when they came. Bronco excluded. Yeah. So it was a big miss. Yeah. Last year was tough coming off of a 2020 with no minor league season, of course.

I'll quickly catch people up on my team and I'll go through the hitters first. I got Wilson Contreras and Yadier-Melina. My draft has been flying by. I think we're in round 25 now. So almost done here. But I've got Contreras and Yadier-Milina as my catchers. I've got Josh Bell at first base. Then Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson, Matt Chapman to finish out the infield.

I've got Fernando Tatis, Aaron Judge, Charlie Blackman, Lane Thomas, and Anthony Santander in the outfield. I waited too long for my fifth outfieler. It's not great. Colton Wong, Eric Hosmer, and Fran Milraeus at Middle Corner and Utility. I do like the hitting quite a bit. I think it's balanced. Batting average might be a touch low.

Chapman drags it down quite a bit, but we'll see if he can bounce back at that batting average back up. And my pitchers, so I did not take a starting pitcher until round four, and I drafted Freddie Peralta, Max Fried, Framber Valdez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Noah Cindergarde, and Kyle Hendricks. Those are my top six starting pitchers. And then I've got Will Smith, Andrew Kittridge, and Ken Giles as my relievers. So three potential closer candidates. I feel pretty good about that.

I think I might be lacking strikeouts. You know, Kyle Hendricks, Framber Valdez in the same rotation. You got some question marks there. And you know what? Chris, I took Noah Cindergarde over Alex Cobb, and I wasn't sure about it then. I'm not sure about it now. Coming back from Tommy John surgery,

didn't throw any breaking pitches in that one inning that he threw one or two innings that Cindergard threw last year. I really like Alex Cobb. I don't know, man. I struggle with that decision. I think he goes Cinderguard. Yeah.

I think you probably go Cindergarde. Yeah. It's not like Cobb's upside is so significant that, like, or that there's so little risk. Right. He's had his own issues. Yeah, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. I think Cindergards the right.

Right call. there. All right. Making me feel good. I actually just made a few more picks here. Round 24 and round 25. I selected Yoshi Suu-s-s-s-su-go as my first bench hitter. Can use him at corner or in the outfield.

And then Zach Rankie. I got him as my SP-7 as well. So, Scott, you're talking into me, you're talking me into these late-round former ace-type pitcher, Zach Rankie, Carrasco. Carrasco, I've drafted a bunch in these drafts. And Kyle Hendricks, been winding up with those guys. I mean, if you want upside of that range of the draft, it's starting pitcher. I don't see how you could say anyone has more than three guys who we were consistently drafting in the top 25 prior to this year.

Yeah, look, the strikeouts are going to be shaky. I get that, but the ratios could be great, like really good. And over the course of 180 plus endings, we've got to see where Zach Ranky's going to wind up playing this season. I think if he was going to retire, he probably would have done it by now. So I think he's going to play. So we'll see where he signs once the lockout ends. We are going to take a quick break before we get these ADP risers and fallers,

but I want to remind everyone that we have another live mock draft coming tomorrow. Or if you're listening to this on Monday, it is going to be Monday night. So March 7th at 9 p.m. Eastern Time, a 12-te-to-head points league this time. The link to follow. And of course, if you want to subscribe,

YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. Come by 9 p.m. Eastern Time. Hang out. We'll do it live. and we'll have fun. When we return, we've got ADP risers here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so let's take a look at some of these risers.

And the way that I broke this down was I compared January 1st to the 31st, the ADP in that frame, I think it was like 160 drafts. And then I compared that to February 1st through March 6th, Sunday March 6th. So I think that was like 175 draft, something like that. So a pretty good amount of data

and basically just comparing and contrasting the biggest risers and fallers. Thank you to Chris once again for teaching me V-lookup because we'd have never been able to do it without that. Let's take a look at the biggest risers inside the top 100. These players have all moved six plus picks. So it doesn't sound significant, but inside the top 100, that's actually a pretty big deal.

So the first one up, not really surprised. We've been talking about him a lot. A lot of people have been talking about him. Pete Alonzo, he's moved from 55 to 48, so he's more so at that 4-5 turn in a 12-team league. Matt Olson is at 44. They're basically going at the same spot now. Chris, I know that you like P. Alonzo quite a bit. But, I mean, we're at the point now

where you just have to choose one of the other. Who is it for you? Is it Matt Olson or P. Alonzo? I think it's really close. And I'm not sure it makes all that much of a difference. But let me see where I have them. I do have Matt Olson higher. But the reason you liked,

the reason we all liked Alonzo so much before was because of the gap in their price. Now, I think at this point, it's you can flip a coin. Olson has actually been a lot less consistent over the course of his career, but he's also been hitting in really, really tough offensive environments for his profile. So it's entirely possible that the breakout we saw last season might have room to grow even more, or at least be more sustainable if he goes into a better offensive environment. but I also do think Pete Alonzo has room to grow. So I think it's sort of six and one, half dozen in the other.

All right. Scott, I guess it's not really surprising that P. Alonzo is moving. I mean, there's lots of reasons to like him. He got much better in the second half last year, cut down the strikeout rate. So I think there's a chance that we see a better batting average from Pete Alonzo as well. I think you also have Matt Olson ranked ahead of Alonzo, right? So if you're choosing between the two. I mean, he was better last year.

I know this ADP doesn't reflect points. but if it is a points league, Olson walks more. So that would be a reason to take him ahead there. Yeah, I mean, I look personally, the drafts I've been doing, I'm still surprised how late Alonzo's going. And obviously, you're out there listening. Your draft's only going to go one way, and it's not going to necessarily be what ADP shows.

So, but yeah, I mean, if, in theory, if they're four spots apart, I would I guess maybe you have to think about that like that's I guess you'd have to think about taking Olson because you can't count on Alonzo just because you don't know if he's going to if the fallback's going to be there

for what it's worth ATC projections have Alonzo is the more valuable player so you know that could be part of why the move has started to the gap between them has started to narrow Ardale Cohen's also a Med fan so I'll point that out

No, I'm just kidding. If Ariel's listening, just a joke. But yeah, look, Alonzo has, I think his upside might even be higher because his best season was better than Madelson's best season. Let's move on to another riser inside the top 100. Will Smith has moved up about a half around from pick 60 to 54, and this is the catcher, Will Smith from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Going just ahead of names like Wander Franco, Javier Baez, and George Springer. Chris, correct me if I'm wrong, I feel like we all kind of liked Will Smith when we were. doing our catcher preview, but like, you know, you've got to use a fifth round pick. And you've

also got to draft him over some pretty proven players, one that you really like in George Springer. Yeah, like, I'd rather have Springer, but I have moved Smith up to my number two catcher spot. I just, I'd rather have him than Rayo Muto at this point. I don't think the, the moderate stolen base edge that Rayamuto gives you is, is worth passing up on a guy in Will Smith, who aside from Salvador Perez and maybe Yasmani Grandal is probably the only catcher who if he wasn't a catcher would still start in fantasy. Real Muto is probably pretty fringy.

But if you didn't have to start a catcher, I think Will Smith would be one of the guys who you would. You're talking about 834 career plate appearances with 892 OPS. Last season was his biggest sample size. He had an 860 OPS. So I think he pretty much is, if Salvador Perez didn't exist, the best hitter at the position. So I do think, like, this is higher than I have him ranked, but him moving up makes perfect sense.

And he's still behind Real Muto and ADP, so I still prefer him to Rail Muto. Yeah, him moving up only further assures that I won't draft him. because, like, yes, I'm all about drafting Salvador Perez around the three-four turn. And I guess in theory, Will Smith has a chance of catching him, but it takes a lot going, right? The chief among them being he plays a lot of DH for the Dodgers this year, and there's, of course, no guarantee of that. I feel like a lot of people are approaching him as if, well, if I miss out on Salvador Perez, I can just take Will Smith, and it'll all be the same. There's a, like that's pretty. There was a 164 plate appearance gap between the two of them last season.

Yeah. Yeah. And one of the other things for Will Smith or something. Well, yeah. One of the other things for Will Smith, though, he does walk a decent amount. You know, 58 walks and 501 playt appearances last season. If you're looking for ways that he could get better for Roto League for five by five, the RBI would be one.

But with his walk rate, you know, there just aren't that many opportunities for him to drive runs in. So, you know, it's 76 RBI, 71 runs last season. You could see him getting to 80, 85 of both, but he would need to see a pretty significant spike in playing time to get to 90 plus, I think. Yeah, and we've talked about standouts the past couple of podcasts in OBP and head-to-head points leagues. Will Smith, because of that fantastic walk rate, does excel in that format. He had an awesome second half. He hit 266, 15 homers, a 936 OPS. That is a 34-homeer pace over 130 games.

So if he can push 140 with the DH there, then maybe he's, we're talking about him hitting 35 plus home runs this upcoming season. Jonathan India, the next one, he's moved about half around as well from pick 92 to 86 over the past month or so. He's going just ahead of names like Tommy Edmund, J.D. Martinez, and Alex Bregman. And Scott, I think this is part of, when we were talking about the second base breakdown, so many second basemen also play shortstop, and I think people are starting to realize that

maybe it's not as deep as we thought when we first started looking at the second base position. And as a result, maybe we're pushing the mid-tier up a little bit, guys like Jonathan India and Jorge Polanco even. Well, I mean, you have to be careful given that NFBC is primarily 15 teams, right? There are a lot of 12-team leagues. Like, the online championship leagues are 12-teamers. Okay.

Well, certainly the vast majority of people listening play in less than 15 hands. Obviously, a 15-team league changes the depth outlook of everything. We're having shortstop issues and TCHI, and that positionism seems incredibly deep, right? Deepest infield position. So, yeah, I mean, I still think in a 12-team context, well, if you totally ignore, If you totally space out at second base, yeah, you can end up with somebody pretty crappy there. But if you have any, you know, just if you're halfway intentional

about drafting a quality second baseman, it's not difficult to get one. Yeah, I mean, maybe Jonathan India is, you get a lot of people who weren't so intentional, and then they panic and take India ahead of somebody like J.D. Martinez. I mean, the Alex Breggman one is weird to me because, like, third base is obviously weaker than second base. It's not even close.

And I don't know what advantage India has on Breggman. I guess you expect him to stay healthy just because Breggman got hurt last year. And, yeah, he got about a dozen steals, which, what's a dozen steals? I mean, that could easily become five steals, you know? So, I don't know. It seems a little...

That's the weird one to me. I think 86, though, is probably about at least a round too early for Jonathan, India. All right. Inside of the top 100, I also wanted to mention, because Chris, I know you've been drafting him a lot. Ronald Acuna has moved from 11.9 in January, so right there at the 1-2 turn in the 12-team league, he's up to pick 9.3. And again, you know, it doesn't sound significant, but that early in the first round, I mean, you know, we're splitting hairs on these players.

So he's now going just ahead of Bryce Harper, Chris, who would. Would you rather have Ronald Acuna or Bryce Harper? I would still rather have Harper, although I have drafted Acuna more this season. And I don't know if I've taken Acuna when Harper's been on the board. I don't think that's something that's happened, but I do have Acuna 14th overall Harper 9th. So, you know, a little bit of a gap in Harper's favor,

but Acuna's upside is probably higher. just in a five-by-five context, assuming he's going to run like he has in the past. That's kind of the one of the unknowns with Ronald O'Cunia in addition to just when he's going to play. But if Ronald O'Kuna is not running the way he used to, then it becomes a much more interesting question because he's not necessarily been the thousand OPS bad guy

that Bryce Harper has shown he can be. So I think it's an interesting question, but I would still rather have Harper right now. Yeah, I mean, maybe Acuna goes from a 40-25 guy. If he's completely healthy, everything's clicking to, you know, 35, 40 homers, 15 seals, something like that. Although. It's still an amazing player, but obviously, you know. His last, he's played 128 games in 2020 and 2021. He's 38 homers, 118 runs and 81 RBI with the 271 average.

so don't want to downplay Ronald O'Cuna's other contributions in addition to this 25 stolen base. He scores so many runs. A ridiculous amount of runs. He's at a 400 on base percentage over the past two seasons. Yeah, no, he's been absolutely ridiculous.

Let's move a little bit quicker, rapid fire style through the biggest risers, 101 through 200. All five of these have moved 10 plus picks over the past month. Mitch Garver from 192 to 176. People are buying back in on the, power production that Mitch Garver can provide, and he's going just ahead of now names like

Alex Kirloff, and the next player will talk about Marcel Ozuna. Scott, does that sound accurate when it comes to Garver, or maybe is he starting to push too high going ahead of Akiralov or Ozuna? Yeah, I mean, the appeal to Mitch Garver is if you're not going to, if you don't want to pay anything for a catcher, he's someone you could pay nothing for and still potentially get like standout production at the position. If he had stayed healthy last year, he would have delivered on it.

Of course, we saw in 2019 what he did. So if there is something like a cost to drafting him, then I'm not saying you shouldn't do it, but generally speaking, I'm more interested in filling an outfield spot with an upside bad like Kirillof or Osuna personally. For what it's worth, though, outside of NFBC, so, you know, all of the other four sites featured on fantasy pros,

Garver's still going outside the top 200 on average, NFBC is the only one where he's, you know, if you factor in all the drafts that have happened, he's going to 186 overall. Yeah, maybe some of those drafts are, you know, outside of NFBC are one catcher leagues too, so obviously catchers would get pushed down a little bit. In those formats, most leagues, I would say 90 plus percent,

of the leagues happening over at the end of BCR two catcher leagues. So more often than not, you know, Mitch Garver's like a borderline catcher one, or if you invest highly in the position, he's, you're a high-end catcher too. Chris, the next name up here, Marcel Ozuna, he's climbed just over around, 197 to 184. How high do you think Ozuna can climb if it looks like he's going to play for the Braves and everything's kind of going normally one spring summer training? I don't know what we're going to call it whenever it does happen.

his ADP last year was 45.7. How high do you think this can get for Ozuna? I mean, if there were zero concerns about his playing time, he'd be a top 100 pick, right? He'd be going around where Christian Yalach and Cody Bellinger are going, right? Like, he wasn't as good pre-2020 as those guys, but he had been a top 12 outfielder twice before last season. So I think if we were in spring,

if the Braves were in spring training right now, and we had a quote from them saying Marcelo Zuner's our everyday DH, he'd probably be top 120. So I think there's a lot of room he can climb, and he probably should, as long as he's going to be playing. At this point, I don't think any reason to think he won't be. Yeah, everything has trended that way so far.

Scott, the next one up here is Justin Turner. He's climbed from 162 to 150, and I think this is just a correction. He was going too late. People realized how good he was last year. kind of slowed down in the second half, but still hits in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. And when he plays,

he's been really good at a really weak position. So I think the market is just kind of correcting on Justin Turner. Yeah, no, I agree. It was kind of bizarre how long he was lasting, given how awful third base is. You have a note here that he's climbed ahead of Y' on Montcada's ADP during that time. In redraft, that makes perfect sense. I mean, production-wise, you really have nothing to complain.

about with Justin Turner. It's just he's been kind of in and out of the lineup in recent years. He's very old, so when does he fall off a cliff? Hasn't happened yet. Yeah, and for the price, I don't think you worry about it too much. Max Muncie, he's also dropped behind.

I think that has more to do with Muncie, though, than Turner and just the uncertainty surrounding his elbow. The fact that, yeah, it sounds like the, it sounds like they're, I think there's serious risk of Muncie missing the whole season. So, um, he should come at a pretty steep discount if you do draft them. All right. Next up, we have A. Eugenio Suarez. He has climbed from 199 to 188.

And Chris, he is going four spots ahead of Josh Donaldson over the past month or so, which, look, as much as I like what we saw from Suarez in September. I really like it. I like him as a sleeper candidate. I don't think he should be going ahead of Josh Donald. Yeah, I think you could just make a case that Josh Donaldson on his own rights is really undervalued right now. You know, he's kept hitting over the last three seasons and last season. He mostly stayed healthy.

He's not going to give you big counting stats, but he's Justin Turner with, you know, your trading batting average for home runs, right? You know, that's the biggest difference between the two of them. Maybe Justin Turner could be a better source of counting stats. But other than that, I do think Josh Donaldson, just a good value here. Yeah, no, I think that makes a lot of sense. Turner's probably going to hit

270, 280 with 25 homers. And, you know, I think if Donaldson could say healthy, he's probably a 250 hitter with like 30 homers. So yeah, you trade off some of that batting average for power. As Mores could be a 250 hitter with 40 homers. I mean, that's not out of the question. He hit 31 home runs last season, despite, you know, having what I think everyone would agree

is a pretty disastrous season. So if that's the floor, I think Eio Hino-Suarez is a fine play at that point as well. It's just you know that there is serious risk to your batting average at this point with him because he's hit below 200 the past two seasons. It's kind of like Joey Gallo. I mean, Gallo has an even higher power ceiling. But I do think there's more hope for Ejani-Swaris and batting average, probably.

Probably. Probably a 30% strikeout rate versus 36 for Joey Gallo. Yeah, big time. Yikes. Rees Hoskins is the last one I wanted to mention here. He's moved about 11 spots as well. Reese Hoskins from 139 to pick 128. And he is now closing in on C.J. Cron and Josh Bell and Josh. Cron. Profit Pocket, baby. Yes. Rank the profit pocket for me. For those who don't know, it is Crohn, Josh Bell, Reese Hoskins, Joey Votto. How would you rank those for, Scott? So Votto's number one, regardless of format. If we're talking five by five categories league, I go C.J. Crohn second.

Josh Bell, third, and Reese Hoskins fourth. However, if we're talking about a points, Lake Hoskins jumps to second behind Joey Vado. All right. The five other biggest risers going outside of the pick, going outside of pick 200, Jake McGee has jumped from 288 to 270. Sayas Suzuki has jumped from 211 to 196.

Of course, we are waiting for Sayas Suzuki to come state side and find out where he's going to sign. He still does want to play this upcoming season in Major League Baseball. Lucas Sims went from 249 to 237. Josh Donaldson. All right, we're starting to see that market correct a little bit. 204 to 192. Still going behind Aeohani Oswaris. And then Elias Diaz, for those who need a second catcher from 247 to 236.

Let's look at some of the biggest fallers inside of the top 100. And Chris, we'll start with your guy. Luis Castillo, he's dropped about nine spots over the past month from pick 87 to 96. He's now down below Frankie Montas and Trevor Rogers. Still going ahead of Charlie Morton because, I don't know, nobody wants Charlie Morton. But what do you think? Except us. What do you think about Castillo dropping below Frankie Montas and Trevor Rogers?

I don't think it really makes all that much sense for him to be dropping below those guys. I know he was bad last season and whip is. sometimes an issue, but it's not like Frankie Montas especially has been this symbol of consistency himself. Like if we're going to hold Luis Castillo having two really bad months against him last season, well, Frankie Montas has had a couple of bad months in his career as well. So I don't think that one makes sense. Rogers, I guess you could talk yourself into some sort of theoretical upside, but I think the innings gap between him and Castillo is likely to be, you know, if both stay healthy, probably 30 plus. So I think I'd still rather have Castillo. But

I get that range for Castillo, and I've probably softened my stance on him a little bit, and he's more in this range in the SP3 range at starting pitcher for me. But I don't love the idea of passing on him to take Frankie Montas. So I do need to interject here because I have Frankie Montas probably like six, seven spots ahead of Louise Castillo on my SP rankings. Now, I don't know that there's anybody in the industry higher than me on Frankie Montas. I kind of feel like we don't yet know what Frankie Montas's upside is because that splitter

that's clearly the key to everything for him has come and gone. Like in terms of actual usage and when he used it the most he's ever used over the final three months last year, he basically looked like Max Scherzer. So now maybe the reason the usage is come and gone is because the feel comes and goes and maybe he's just going to be a frustratingly inconsistent pitcher. I'll buy that argument, but I am willing to see the glass have full with him because I just don't think we have enough information to know either way. Yeah, Scott has Montas ranked SP21 in Roto, four spots ahead of Luis Castillo at SP25. I exaggerated.

Actually, they're pretty close for me, too. I've only got Castillo, I think, two spots ahead, right? Yeah, you have Castillo at SP 24, you have Montas, 28. So, but yeah, consistent with what both of you said there, presenting one argument for Castillo and the other for Frankie Montas. Logan Webb has dropped about nine spots from pick 62 to 71. So moving closer to the end of the six round, the six, seven turn. That was happening with him. Yes. Yeah. And yeah, it legitimately is. He's going just ahead of names like Lance Lynn, Kevin Gosman, Max Fried. Do you think he's dropped enough, Scott, or

Do you need him to drop even behind those guys before you consider selecting Logan Webb? Well, I definitely like all three more. Freed is close. It's close between Freed and Webb. I think Webb has a higher ceiling than Freed. Really, it just comes down to the strikeout category. I think he has more strikeout potential than Freed. So more upside.

But, you know, Freed has been just so steady the past two plus years that I'd rather side with him. It's at least to the point where I could think about drafting Webb. I mean, the good stretches we've seen from Max Webb, it's not like they've been significantly worse if they've been worse at all. Hold on, Chris. You said Max Webb, so I just got- Max-Free. Okay. The good stretches we've seen from Max-Fried, if they've been worse than the best stretch

from Logan Webb last season, it's probably not much. And I don't know. I just feel like we're doing the thing with Logan Webb, where we just kind of act like history started on June 1st last season or whenever the breakout happened. And it's like he had thrown nearly 100 innings before last season at the major league level where he had a 540 ERA, 536. I know he made tangible. He was bad to start last season.

He made tangible changes though, Chris. I know he like changed the pitch mix and sure, sure. No, I'm not doubting that. It's just he wasn't bad to start last season. He wasn't great. He certainly wasn't, you know, someone that we're drafting inside of the top five rounds, like he was being drafted. And that's all not even including the fact that the reason he missed a month and a half was

because he had a shoulder injury, which is a really, really concerning injury for starting pitcher. So I just, I've never been able to make sense of Logan Webb's price. I don't think it makes sense. Yeah. So that pitch makes change that I referenced, he lowered his four seam fastball usage. He more than doubled the sinker. He also raised his change up. slider dramatically. So he's got those two secondary off rings that can get swings and misses with the change up in the slider. And then the sinker just helps him bury ground balls into the dirt. So we're talking like a 60% ground ball rate for Logan Webb. Part of it for me is I believe very strongly in Logan Webb going into last season. So I guess you could say it's confirmation

bias, but that was some serious confirmation. Those three months when he got healthy again. Yeah, final 14 starts. Quality starts in 12 of those. 268 ERA 101 WIP for Logan Webb during that span. And you know, just, I would have quickly touch on this. I find it interesting that basically the entire mid-tier of starting pitchers were among the biggest fallers. So I mentioned Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, but also Lance Lynn, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara, Chris Sail, Alec, Alec, Manoa, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman.

They all dropped four or more spots in ADP over the past month, which I find interesting. I don't know what the reason would be for that. Like, maybe it's just people are starting to buy the hitters more in that range. And as a result, the pitchers are falling. But I find myself drafting from that range a lot. So I'm totally fine with this happening. I think people are beginning to recognize. I mean, what we've been saying a lot going back to our off-season podcast,

well, it is still the off-season, but, you know, going back to the fall podcasts where, yeah, that range hitter drops, off faster than at pitcher. Like, it's a, I mean, one of the first points I was making about starting pitcher this year is basically between 31 and 55 in my rankings. I can't, I can hardly distinguish between him. It's a very large tier there, that middle class, that resurgent middle class at the position. So, yeah, I think people, even if they, even if they haven't described it necessarily in that

way, they're just kind of inherently recognizing it that, you know, you need to fill up your hitter spots more at that stage of the draft. All right. The biggest fallers between picks 101 and 200. All of these names have dropped at least 10 or more picks in, uh, during over the past month or so. Pablo Lopez has dropped from 133 to 148. He's now going below Sean Mania and Chris Bassett. And look, I like Mania. And, look, I like Mania. and I would still take Pablo Lopez ahead of him. Chris, I feel like people are baking this into Pablo Lopez's price

that it's almost a foregone conclusion that he's going to be traded. Either that or they just don't think he could stay healthy because of the shoulder. And I think the latter is more of a concern. I don't know why we would hold it against him that he's getting traded from the Marlins. You know, like that.

He has big home road splits in his career, much better in Marlins Park. Yeah, he's still at a point in his career where I don't think we have a big enough sample size for that. Marlins Park, like, it's a pitcher's park, but it's not what San Francisco used to be. You know, it's not that kind of extreme play. So I don't think I would hold that against him. Like, we know the Blue Jays have been interested in him.

I don't see why I would value Pablo Lopez less playing for the Blue Jays than the Marlins. I don't think his price dropping is a bad thing necessarily in a vacuum. Like where he's going seems perfectly reasonable to me. It just, I don't know that his price should be changing this. Yeah, so in his career, 297 ERA at home, 5, 62 on the road. I mean, that's pretty drastic, Chris. I mean, hearing that out loud, does that change your mind at all? Not really, because we're still only talking about effectively two seasons worth of innings for.

Like, 64 starts, I think, is what he's made in his career. And I would guess, I mean, we've talked about how Lopez's career numbers have been or season numbers have been really impacted by a couple of really, really bad games. Oh, yeah. I would guess that it's entirely possible. It's just through nothing but random chance, those games have been predominantly on the road. I'm looking at it right now.

He had the 10-run run game against the Mets in New York on May 10th, 19, or 2019, and then had a seven run in one and two-thirds against the Braves and in Atlanta in 2020. Probably a significant amount of the difference. Now, I'm not, that's not to say that doesn't matter, but it's more to highlight the very small sample size we're dealing with with his career as a whole. He also had two starts last year on the road where he gave up six earned runs or more. One at the Braves, one at the Diamondbacks.

So you can basically pencil in at least one start of six plus runs aloud from Pablo Lopez per season, because that's basically what he's done each of his first three years in the league. Tanner Halk is the next one he's dropped from pick 199 to 212 and Scott I think that the upside the talent on a per inning basis is tantalizing it's evident with Tanner Halk but I think

just the uncertainty about his role is the reason why we're seeing him drop here he's now down below names like Patrick Sandoval which I think we all agree with and then also Hjongin Riyu which is a little bit closer it's like upside versus safety well not that Riu is safe but it's like a floor versus a upside pick

look I mean that trio that I keep going on about Kyle Hendricks Carlos Carrasco Zach Rankie they all go after

all of these guys and I'd rather have them well except for Patrick Sandoval I guess yeah no I mean how has

has been kind of an industry darling in drafts this year so I haven't really noticed him falling at all myself I've had little interest in taking him, given where he goes.

There are just too many, I name three of them, but there are plenty of others. Tony Gonsolin, of course, Patrick Sandoval. Joe Ryan, I think, goes later. And, like, I just, I think Halk is going to, he could be in and out of the rotation. He could struggle to give you the length you need when he is in the rotation. I just don't think he's at the stage of his career yet where he's ready to make a significant fantasy. impact. And this might be a flaw in my game as like as a fantasy drafter. Chris, I don't know if you struggle with this, but guys like Tanner Howk, Michael Kopeck, and Aaron Ashby, right? The upside is

evident. We just don't know what the role is. But a lot of times at that point in the draft, you really should just draft the skills and then things kind of usually like they work themselves out. Freddie Peralta, a prime example last year was going outside the top 250 picks and we knew how talented he was and obviously did what he did. So I don't know. Like, is that a flaw? Is that like, should we just be drafting skills at that point and not really worry about role? I think it depends on what your team needs. There are certainly situations where that's the right approach. There are certainly situations where taking someone like Junjuru or Zach Rankie may be a better example might make more sense. I think with regards to Michael Kopeck, I think it's a more

compelling point because I think he's just a more talented pitcher than how can it's it's easier for me to see Michael Copac with a four-pitch mix becoming a legitimate normal starter with normal role and usage, even this season, like maybe not for 32 starts, but I can see a 15-start stretch where Michael Copac averages almost six innings per start. It's a lot harder to see with Tanner Howck. It's just a righty who throws only fastballs and sliders,

essentially. There aren't a lot of guys who do that. effectively as a starter, and he hasn't shown he can in the major league level in a way that leads to consistent five-inning plus outings. Tanner Halk, man, that mirror image of Chris Sale. But that's also exactly what we were saying about Freddie Peralta. Like everything, I guess, in Freddie Peralta's case, it wasn't a slider. It was just the fastball. But it's possible that Tanner Halk is just a small change away from becoming that kind of guy. It's just we haven't seen it yet.

Yep, that's certainly true. The last one I want to mention here, Camillo DeVall, he's, he has dropped from 160 to 172. And I mentioned earlier, Jake McGee is someone who has jumped about 18 picks. So I don't know if I miss something, Scott, or if it's just like people kind of talking themselves into Gabe Kapler where, you know, maybe they think he's still going to mix and match or. Yeah. But what I mean? I don't think you've missed anything. I researched the Camillo DeVal's situation pretty hard.

before committing to him in TG FBI because I really didn't want to take a closer as early in round 10. It's just we were running out of closers at that point. Yeah, I've seen a lot of just people are drafting Camila DeVall like he's the Giants Closer. We have no guarantee he's the Giants Closer.

Just a lot of like negativity surrounding him that's maybe creeping into the ADP. But I don't know that they're, you know, him compared to Scott Bolton, Barlow certainly compared to like Giovanni Gallegos, who the Cardinals never seem to want to commit to him in that role. I don't know that there's reason for more doubt with Camilla Duval. In fact, I was going back and reading a lot of what the Giants beat writers were writing in September and October last year. And they sounded very confident that this is the guy now.

And I think one of them even made reference to Kapler, Gabe Kapler, learning to appreciate the importance of bullpen roles after having some issues with it early in his career. I don't know. I mean, it's not much to go on. Part of the frustration with what's going on now with the lockout is just there's so little being reported when normally we're getting this wave of information

this time of year that's helping us fine-tune our thoughts on players. I guess it's just these writers aren't coming into contact with players right now, so they're not getting, they're not getting much to report on. So we don't have much to go on, but just kind of putting myself back where we were when there was a lot of stuff to report on. Signs were very, everything was very strongly pointing at Duval as being the guy for the Giants now. In a way, Jake McGee, you know, he kind of fell into the role when Duval is like the guy, the guy hits 104 with his fastball.

Very exciting pitcher. Yeah, for sure. Prospect pedigree, throws hard, nasty slider. And he was the guy down the stretch, too. used him to finish more games out in the postseason the Giants did. So I tend to agree. I think it's deval to start. And then obviously, you know, if he falters, things can change. But I think that they'll give him an opportunity. And as a result, you probably want to buy this, this one round dip if you are drafting in a five by five or any kind of head-to-head categories league. The other names,

quickly mentioned, Eddie Rosario has dropped from 163 to 173, probably related to being a free agent. Miles Straw from 128 to 138. And then the biggest fallers outside of the top 200. Josh Young, I mean, obviously he has the shoulder injury, so I think he's dropped like 80 spots, but obviously he's probably not going to play at all this year. Ken Giles has dropped from 287 to 325. I think there's just a lot of mouths to feed in the Seattle bullpen,

so people are worried about that. Anthony Santander from pick 257 to 275. Santander has been good when he plays. He just needs to stay healthy. He's averaged 29 home runs per 150 games over the past three seasons. Brandon Nimo from 296 to 311, Joe Ryan from 214 to 227, and then Gio Orchella from 268 to 280, depending on what the Yankees do. Once this lockout ends,

Urchella could get squeezed out. Maybe he turns into a utility kind of player, but if they bring in a shortstop, that player is going to play shortstop, Glaver is going to play second, and I believe Lamehue is going to play third, and then either Luke Voida at first base or whoever they trade for.

Matt Olson or sign Freddie Freeman. Sorry, Scott. But yeah, I do worry about the playing time for Gio Orchella. We're going to wrap there. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching

Fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.