Fantasy Baseball Today - Al Melchior is Back! We Talk Wade Davis, Ohtani and More (02/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 12, 2020

We welcome back former cast member Al Melchior! Our first topic is how to draft steals in a H2H Categories league (3:50). Can you punt steals in that format? ... Let's give Al some tough questions to answer. Is he downgrading the Astros (12:00)? Is he downgrading Mookie Betts (15:00)? Also find out what he thinks about Cody Bellinger this year. And who is he taking #1 overall (17:05)? ... News and notes (21:40) as COL makes a surprise bullpen announcement, we have a Shohei Ohtani timeline and we talk about the new TEX ballpark. Then Al gives us five players he likes in 2020. A bounceback OF (30:50), Mark Canha (34:05), Starlin Castro (37:50), a young stud SP (40:00) and an old stud SP (43:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Santana Ooh I want to add you to my roster In roto Replacing Gio Soto Gio Lido and Brito Baby where my Fabco Near the Florida Key

There's a place in That's where you want to be To get ahead of That's sea Because he's under 30 Because he's an ageist Projective Cochamo Tuesday here, Tuesday night on Fantasy Baseball today.

Fantasy baseball today after dark or after hours, whatever we're calling it. Adam Azer here with Scott White. What's up, Scott? Hey, Adam. How are you? These podcasts are fun, aren't they? Like, I'm glad to be back. I took so many months off.

I'm having a great time. I know. I wondered what you were doing. I was like, this is exactly where you want to be. Yep, yep. Well, I'll tell you who didn't want to be here. somebody who used to be a friend of the program and then just abandoned us

just said screw you CBS I don't want to be here anymore he used to love Rick Porcelo he's Al Nalkiore and he's back I am thanks for that introduction although this kind of feels like one of these dreams I don't know if you guys have this this dream but like a dream where you forget to go to class

for an entire year and you realize it like around finals time like it just seems like yeah oh yeah Everybody has that dream. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, you know, so it's like, you know, I would do podcast with you guys pretty much every day. And then for, you know, three and a half years, I just sort of forgot. How are things in- Are you scared right now? Is that what you're telling us? Oh, yeah. You're kind of shuffled. What I caught up.

Your hair is kind of messy. Has Rick Purcell been good the last couple years? Not so much, but, you know, new team. So, Al, yeah, Al is working with the athletic now. And, yeah, just tell us. how to find you and how to find your stuff. All right. And rotographs. So yeah, I'm writing for both places.

And so, yeah, you can find my work in the MLB fantasy arena at the athletic and in the rotographs section of fan graphs. And, oh, and a new podcast, fantasy baseball in 15 on the athletic. Although you can get it. It's outside the paywall. You can get it at any place where you get your podcasts. Are you still at Al Milk, CBS, on? Twitter?

No, I changed that in my dream. It is now at Al Malkyior, BB. All right, cool. At Al Malkyor, B, B.B. Follow him on Twitter. And he's going to give us some players he likes this week or tonight. He's going to give us some players he likes for the season tonight. And we're going to answer a question about head-to-head categories leagues.

I'm going to ask Al, who he's taking first overall in Roto Leagues, who he's taking first overall in points leagues. We're going to talk about Mark Kana. We have an email about Ramon Lourner. Gioriano, guys who aren't on the A's. Let's get started here. Our email of the day is from Jeff. For a head-to-head categories league,

I think this format puts more of a spotlight on weekly steals production when drafting players. Even a 20-player player's steel production is extremely sporadic week-to-week, with many zeros over the course of the season. Would love your thoughts on how you might evaluate steals differently or not when drafting in a head-to-head categories league weekly compared to season-long roto. Scott, what do you think? You just did a head-to-head categories league draft today, right?

Yeah, I did. And I ended up with three guys who I think will deliver 20-ish steals. But this is a thought I've had about this format before and talking about getting as much impact as possible from each spot when you don't have the luxury of letting stats play out over a full season. The problem with stolen bases is there's just so few guys who are going to deliver a real hearty total. I feel like unless you get

Trey Turner, you know, at the end of round one, I probably prioritize it more in the middle in that format. I'm not confident that there is going to be one guy who you feel like

is going to give you a steady stream of steals from week to week. So you went with the... So who did you take? I took Trey Turner First pick of round two, actually. Okay. And I got Tommy Edmund.

Who else did I get? I know I got Boba Shep, but that's not one of the three I'm talking about. Although I do feel like he has some steals potential that he hasn't delivered on yet. Okay. I'd have to open on my roster. But when you took Trey Turner and his theoretically 40-ish steals. Oh, I didn't take Trey Turner. I was picking at the, I was picking 12th, so I didn't have a shot at Trey Ternor.

I took Trevor Story. Did I say Tray Turner? Al, what did he say? Trey Turner or Trevor's story? Scott, you liar. You took Trevor's story. Okay. Trevor's story.

Okay, so I got Trevor Story, Tommy Edmund, and, yeah, those look like the only two. I think Bo Bichette is my third best source of steals. And he didn't do much of that when he got called up last year, but it has a good track record of it in the minor. So I'm hopeful he'll, I'm hopeful he'll get 15 or so, I hope. Okay, Al, head-to-head categories, the league. How do you approach steals? You know, probably not that differently. You know, Scott, I think the first thing Scott said was there just aren't that many players

that are going to really steal in bulk over the course of the season. So maybe it puts a little bit more of a premium on the trade turners and the Jonathan V.Rs. But, you know, other than that, I don't really think there's a whole lot you can do. And I would say in a shallower league, maybe you can, work the waivers a little bit more. And one thing that I noticed is that the NL East, you got Travis Darno, of course, notorious for, you know, being porous with the running game, Wilson Ramos and Kurt Suzuki. You know, none have historically been very good at throwing out base runners. So, you know, maybe somebody like a John Birdie, if he, you know, works his way into pretty regular playing time.

In a shallow league, maybe that's somebody that you can, you know, stream on and off either waivers or stream on and off your bench. But that's, you know, that's really working at the margins. I'll think there's a whole lot different that you can do. I'll tell you one thing you could do. You could punt steals. How do you feel about punting steals? Let's say in a, I mean, I'm totally fine with it if there are more than five categories. You know, if it's six by six, then I think it's almost easy to punt.

Yeah. And if it's five by five, though, would you do it? No. No? See, I don't know, Scott, because I think, I think if you take the approach that you're going to punt, like, if you're going to go all relievers, and you're going to try to win three pitching categories every week and punt wins and strikeouts, then you can't do it. But if you're not going to take that sort of wild wild west pitching strategy,

why not? Why not punt steals? Well, if we're still emphasizing a head-to-head categories league and not a roto league, yeah. People who listen to this podcast know this is kind of a format I've struggled with. So I don't even know that I'm speaking from a position of authority here. but I don't want to narrow my path, give myself fewer options on a path to victory because everybody's going to have steel problems, you know?

Everybody is. So give myself no chance of getting a win in that category every week, especially since the kind of players you're drafting for steals right now, they are these that help in multiple categories. You know, I'm not somebody who's advising people to draft Malick Smith. So it's not like, yeah, you have to pay up. You have to take a draft a riskier player to secure steals, but not a player who's going to set you back in other categories necessarily while also delivering steals.

I'm thinking somebody like Kevin Vigio. I mean, he could provide big power numbers in addition to the steals. Tommy Edmund's going to be a great source of average, and I don't think he's going to be a zero in power. So I don't think that makes sense. Okay, Al, what do you think, last word on this? I'm just going to co-signed with Scott. It's like you never left, Al.

You're just part of the family still. Yeah, yeah, but no, you know, I just agree with everything that Scott just said. Okay, I would say that you could like maybe quasi-punt and not make a huge investment and still win a week. I mean, you could win a week with two steals something. It just happens, you know, because steals are... Like the emailer was saying, they're unpredictable from a week to week basis. If you have only two guys on your, if you have Trevor Story and Tommy Ebben, those are only two steel sources, you didn't make a huge investment in it. And you still might win a week here or there.

He might win one out of every three every four weeks in steals. I don't know. That's a quasi punt. And you still have good players. No, not really. I mean, because, you know, to come back again to the fact that guys like Edmund, you know, are going to be pretty good for steals, relatively speaking. good for steals relatively speaking still probably does mean like one or two a week. Right.

So you're not accidentally going to get a Tommy Edmund or a Garrett-Amson or a Victor Robles. Okay. So, but story, but story is not someone that you're, you're not taking Trevor Story 12th overall just because he gets you steals. Like he, he warrants the 12th pick even if he steals like 15 bases, right? I would have passed him over if I didn't, if I wasn't hopeful. He was going to give me 20 steals. I forget who else was there at that point. But, I mean, it's definitely the steals that push him to the front of the tier, let's say.

Sure. All right. In summation, don't punt steals. There we go. Yeah. I tried. We have a Facebook group. Brand spanking new.

Fantasy baseball today. Search for it on Facebook. I tweeted out a link today. We have over 13,000 people, I think, in our fantasy football group. So let's go for half of that. Let's get 7,000 people in our fantasy baseball group. Get in there. Ask questions.

The group will answer. We'll answer. Not all of your questions will be approved, but many of them will. We can't have hundreds of posts every day. But we'll try to, you know, and then like we'll post like a waiver wire thread. And you can just comment on it, stuff like that. So it was very, very helpful for football. We did some Q&As in there.

I think you're going to really like it. just talking fantasy baseball with people who love it. Fantasy baseball today. Find it on Facebook. Al, all right, here we go. Tough questions for you, Al. Are you ready? Yes, I'm ready. Can you, like, maybe turn up the heat on your lamp to make it seem like you're under interrogation right now? Sure. Okay, thank you. Note he is, he is, that just pretend he's doing it. Okay, are you down. I see a beat of sweat going down to his forehead. You have to pretend.

Are you downgrading the Astros because they're big cheaters? Not across the board, but generally, yeah. I'm downgrading Al-Tubei, and not a lot. You know, that's the whole thing. It's not terribly meaningful for most of these players. It's to the point where I'm probably waiting on second base because if I don't downgrade Al-Tubi, to me, he's just the obvious number one guy, and I've got enough doubt there that I'm probably waiting a little while.

I'm downgrading Bregman, but in both of these cases, it's like I've got some doubts about these players already. So the cheating thing is sort of a tiebreaker. And in Bregman's case, he overperformed his ex-Woba. And, you know, I just, he generated a lot of power by polling. And I don't know if he's going to be able to, pun intended, pull that off again in 2020. So, you know, but like Michael Brantley, no, I'm not going to discount. him. I don't see any reason to. I think the price on Brantley already is too low. Well, Al-Tuve, Al, though, like in 2017, which was the main year of this, he was much better on

the road than he was at home. He slugged almost, he slugged 170 points higher on the road than he did at home. So does that, I think that's kind of why we sort of said, I don't, don't worry about Al-Tu-Ve. What do you think? Well, like I said, you know, I mean, that's a really good point. But he doesn't make contact as often as he used to. And so he's really living more on the power stats. And I've just got enough doubt about him carrying that over that I'm just not going to view him the same way as I would if we didn't know about all the cheating in 2017. Okay. Would you take Jose Altuve or look at guys that were going around him?

Zander Bogartz. Bogarts. Scott? I would take Al Tuvei, but I'm not wild about either of those players that they're going great. And part of it's because one is a second baseman and one is a shortstop. So I think of all the Astros hitters, Altuve, is the one it makes most sense to downgrade. But I think part of what Al was saying is there was the seed of doubt planted even before. any of the scandal stuff came up without Tuvei.

It was such a outlier season power-wise, and he doesn't run anymore. And he's just showing some characteristics of aging that would encourage you not to give him the benefit of the doubt. So that's the asterous hitter I'm most worried about, and it's almost independent of any sign-stealing scandal.

Okay. Again, it seems like you guys are thinking along the same lines. Question number two, Al. Are you downgrading Moogie Betts now that he's on the Dodgers? No, and I'm not sure why I would. I mean, actually, I can think of at least one rationale, which is that he is getting a bit of a downgrading park factor. But, nah, I think he pretty much supersedes the park factor issue.

And the other thing is that I've got him fourth overall. I've got Bellinger 5th. And I've got some concerns about Bellinger having played through an injury for the latter part of 2019. And I admit that my thinking on this has changed a bit because Jeff Zimmerman wrote a great piece for rotographs where he researched players who played through an injury through part of a season and compared their pre-injury

and post-injury production. And players who dropped off while playing through an injury tended to do much worse the following year. And Bellinger did much worse after he was injured. So, you know, I'm not going to drop bets behind him. Well, what's the injury? I don't even remember the injury. I actually am blanking on it myself.

Okay, I'll see if I can find it. Well, I think it was it maybe a leg injury because didn't he steal bases early and stopped? Let's check it out. This Cody Bellinger were talking about. It was a... Please be a leg injury. Let's see.

He didn't actually serve like an IL stint or anything. But he had... I threw it. Well, he had a right... He missed a game with a right knee injury in April, and he missed a shoulder injury in May. So he didn't even... It doesn't look like he missed it.

game with whatever it was like the whole second half yeah all right all right i'll keep looking i apologize that i'm i'm blanking on no i put you on the spot it's fine it's uh something i should know i can move on to the next question while i researched this year yeah well he did steal 11 bases before the all-star break and six after the all-star break he actually looks like he stole nine bases in june so that was a quite a month for him and then he must have suffered that leg injury in july first. The mythical leg injury. Okay, so Al has Mookie Betts fourth.

Who is your number one overall pick in Roto? Who's your number one overall pick and points leagues? Same both. I'm still going trout for a zillionth year in a row. My man. Yep, and I'm still going to try. This is kind of process of elimination because it's really hard to sort out the big three. I'm sure, you know, you all have had that discussion probably multiple times.

but I do have concerns about Yelich coming back from the kneecap injury and just not being certain whether or not he's going to start off slowly. And, you know, if it's Trout versus O'Kunia, I mean, I have really solid expectations of what I'm going to get from Mike Trout. I don't know if O'Kunia might have overperformed a little bit last year. So I'm taking what to me feels like the safer play. We haven't talked about it that much, Scott. I think with one guy we haven't talked enough about probably is Yelich. I feel like we're always comparing Trout to Acuna if we're talking about this at all because it's always, well, it's good steals with Akunia. And it's a no-brainer for us to take Trout number one.

But, you know, for the end of, toward the end of last season, I said, I'm taking Yelich. Taking Yelich number one. That was before his injury. And I backed away from that just because, look, I don't know that it's so obvious that Yowich would steal more bases than Trout, right? No, it's not obvious. It's not combined. Like the fractured kneecap, that's what Jose Altuvei suffered midway through 2018 and kept playing through it.

But he hasn't really run since. Second half, 2018, he stopped running and he didn't run last year. I think he had like six steals or something. And look, sprint speed, according to stat cast, Altuve still has. elite sprint speed. So it seems more like a decision thing than a loss of ability. And maybe, you know, like I always say, with stolen bases, it's, it's probably, I don't even want to put a really high percentage, 75, 80 percent intent versus ability. And I just wonder if after suffering, you know, considering he's been the best hitter in baseball the past two years. and then he suffers that kind of injury.

Is he or the Brewers are both going to say, it's not worth risking this guy on the base paths. All right, thank you for answering those questions, Al. You are off the hot seat. It will be a more favorable show for you later because you'll just get to talk about the guys you like. All right. Just coasting from here on out.

Bellinger had knee tendonitis that he was removed from a game with in... July 1st. looks like July. Yeah. I knew it. All right. That's,

I think that's our winner. Very, very little information about this on the Google machine now. So that's a sneaky one. So, yeah, you got any more to add there? Or shall we move on?

No, no. Other than, I mean, I'm just, I'm just bummed because I actually did find some stuff on this. And now it's, it's just,

you know, gone through my mind like a sieve. So. Tuesday for Al. Give him a break. He's very full. I told you guys I ate too many chips. Yeah, chips are so good. They just, just, they're poison. Okay, we got news and notes, including already a bad call by Scott. Sorry, man. You said Scott over yesterday. Yeah, sure. Oh, a shoulder. Yep. Okay. For, for. Sustained on, I'm bringing this from Jeff Summerman's piece

sustained on May 6th. May 6th. But he kept crushing it in May. I guess that's when the batting average started to go down. May 6th? I mean, he hit for the month. Let me look up its month-by-month number.

It was all in the first five days, Scott. Cinco to Bile. He went out. He had too many chips. So in May, Cody Bellinger hit 319. It was his second best batting average for a month. 319 with 319 with. homers in 998 OPS.

It was the second best month overall. April was just ridiculous. He had 431 with 14 homers and a 1397 OPS. So, hey, maybe he would have been that good for the whole season, if not for the shoulder injury. You know. All right, we got some news. Scott talked about Scott Oberg yesterday as a late round pick he liked.

But Black says Wade Davis is going to be Colorado's closer. Yeah. That earned a Justin Timberlake staring at the camera jiff from me. There had been no indication. I had really, I think I even posted it to Twitter once. Has anybody seen anything about who the Rockies Closers going to be? And everybody was just like, oh, it's obviously Scott Oberg. Come on.

And then, of course, Bud Black comes forward with this. I have a feeling it's not going to last. I don't think Wade Davis has much of anything left. So I'm inclined to not really move Scott Oberg in my rankings. We're going to have to move Wade Davis. But everybody's drafting Will Smith ahead of Mark Melanson in Atlanta. And I think Malanson has a much better chance of retaining the role there than Wade Davis does for the Rockies.

Yeah, this was surprising. Oberg, last two years, 245 ERA, 225 ERA. Wade Davis, last two years, 413 ERA, 865 ERA. Davis was actually pretty good for most of 2018, though. He had a bad stretch mid-season, and then in his last 18 appearances, he had a 0.5 ERA. But still, I mean, there was last year. Can't forget about that. And Al, do you agree with Scott?

Yeah, pretty much. I hold out maybe just a shred of hope. Because as you pointed out, he finished 2018 really strong. maybe he can kind of pull a Greg Holland where, you know, Holland has been Feaster Fam and he's been really bad and has been able to stay healthy. But he's had stretches in each of the last two seasons where he's been really good. So maybe Davis does have that little bit left in the tank enough where he can sustain that role for a while. But, you know, it's a situation I'm just going to be avoiding. Sorry, I'm mesmerized by Justin Timberlake's eyes.

I'm looking at Scott's Giff right now. Very good stuff. Okay. Shohei Otani won't be able to pitch until mid-May at the earliest. He had knee surgery in September, which sort of postponed his rehab from Tommy John. So he can hit, but Al, he can't pitch Shohei Otani until mid-May at the earliest. What does that mean for you? It means I'm bummed.

I mean, that's, you know, because already you had to discount him a little bit, pitching every sixth day at best with the endings being limited. And, you know, now you're taking away a quarter of the season, and probably best case scenario. So, you know, it's hard to value him because for that final three quarters of the season, he could give you a lot of really great starts. But I know he's been going typically as a top 40 starter, but I don't see how he can really be anywhere near that at this point.

You know, maybe top 60. Unless it's a daily lineup league, which is a total game changer with him. We just did a head-to-head categories mock using Yahoo rules. basically today, which meant daily lineouts. Heath took Shohei Otani 15th overall, which I can't get behind

moving him up that much if he's not going to be pitching at all for the first six weeks. But he is worthy of a significant upcharge in that format. He goes 122 on average in standard roto formats according to fantasy pros.

But I could see him being like a fourth-round pick in a daily league where you're going to get about the full extent of both his hitting and pitching contributions. By the way, when he is rehabbing officially on a minor league rehab assignment, working his way back as a pitcher, the Angels were able to work out a deal with MLB where he can go down and make a rehab start

and then come back up and DH the next day. So I don't know why Shohay Otani gets to rewrite the whole rule. book. Clearly, MLB wants the show, Hey, Otani thing to work because they are giving him all kinds of special treatment. But that's obviously good news for somebody who drafts Otani as a hitter. Rocky's GM, Jeff Bridich,

said, I hope I said that right, said no comment when he was asked about his relationship with Nolan Aronado. Does anyone think Aeronado is going to get traded? Does anybody draft Nolan Aronado thinking, hey, he might get traded? No, I'm not factoring that in. And for one thing, he's not somebody I'm really giving a Coorsfield discount to anyway.

And I don't think he's going to be traded at this point. Delham Batanzas said he'll be ready for opening day. He's not the closer, but that's a really good bullpen potentially. So more people to be worried about if you have Edwin Diaz and relief pitcher preview starts tomorrow. I saw a tweet from Scott about the ballpark dimensions for the new Rangers ballpark. Scott, it is a hitter's park, right? I don't see any way it couldn't be.

And I don't know why I didn't look into this sooner. The Rangers official Twitter accounts tweeted it out in early December. I guess my mind was elsewhere. I don't know. But the left center gap, the power alley in left center, it's 20 feet closer than the old Rangers ballpark. And it's like 10 feet closer in right center. They will have a retractable roof, which is going to neutralize the environmental conditions on the days. it's closed, which I assume would be most days.

But when the power alleys are that close, I don't see how it's not a hitter's park. Okay. Al. I'm a little worried about all the pictures, frankly. It's pretty, 374 feet to the left field alley. It's, you know, it's going to be a hitter's park for, it seems clear. Al, agreed? Yeah, I think it could, it could get more neutral, though.

I, I'm not discounting the impact of the roof. the hot weather there is a big part of what made the old park so hitter-friendly. So maybe those things kind of neutralize each other, which means then it's still a hitter's part. I think it's neutral-leading hitter-friendly, you know, at the worst for hitters. And I'll give you guys three more notes. Do any of them matter? The Red Sox nearing a deal with outfielder Kevin Pilar, according to John Heyman. The Cubs signed Jason Kipness to a minor league deal, and the Seattle Mariners signed

Carlos Gonzalez to a minor league deal. I don't think any of them really matter. The one that might have an impact is the Kipna's signing because that might keep Nico Horner in the minors longer than it would have otherwise. But I'm not too worried about him being a roadblock.

Beautiful. It's team name Tuesday. Team name Tuesday night. I'm sorry. I was ming something else. Charlie Morton just saw this go out. Charlie Morton said he might retire after this season. Really? Yeah.

Didn't he say that two or three years ago? I don't know. I don't know. But it caught my eye because I'm just signed into a long-term deal. That kind of always sticks in my mind in terms of his long-term values. Well, is this the year he's getting? That was before he got good, right? If he was saying it a couple years ago.

Yeah, certainly not. He wasn't on this level. Yeah. You ready for Team Name Tuesday now, Scott? Or should we keep talking about baseball? Come on. Okay. It's Team Name Tuesday.

Send in your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. only applicable for a reigning champ, the repeat oars. Wow, that is a throwback. Pete Orr. Utility infielder from what, 15 years ago? Or is it more recent than that? Yeah, it was more recent. I definitely went to baseball reference to see when Pete Orr played.

He played for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic. I know that. He had to start for them. He retired in 2013. Okay. Yeah, 2005 to 2013. All right. So the repeat.

Jurassic Chanho Park, Neris Bueller's Day Off, that's a good one, that's two players in one, Roark of the Covenant, that's not bad, and Breaking Vlad, which is a common one.

Breaking Vlad, we don't need any more of those. That's a good one, but it's an oldie. It's a strong email from Ryan. He's our first in Team Name Tuesday. Dan has, Knicks my team,

it's so lacking in pitching. Nick's so lacking. I like it. Glabermetrics, another oldie but goody. This is a good one. Leader Anola. That is from Super Troopers.

Leader of Cola, leader Adola. I like that. Okay. I've never seen Super Troopers, which isn't as embarrassing as having never seen The Matrix, but I guess you rectified that.

Yes, not the case anymore. Super Troopers, I believe I walked out in theaters, but every time I've seen it since, it's very funny. I hated it at first, but it's good. funny. And finally, trash barrel rates.

I like that. That's good. That's good stuff. I asked Al for five players he likes. He said, Mike Trout, mooky bets. He gave me five deeper other guys that he likes a lot, I guess. So, all right, Al. Number one, coming off a bad year, but he was a top 20 outfielder in 2018, Lorenzo Kane. Yeah, well, this is sort of another Jeff Zimmerman special, but I was liking Kane before I even read that piece. So reading Jeff's piece just made me kind of reinforce my bias that I already had towards thinking that Kane was going to be undervalued this year because, you know, even though he played through the thumb injury, he actually produced much better later in the season. So I think that kind of takes away the narrative that, you know, his season was disappointing because of playing through that injury.

It was really a lot of the bad numbers were front-loaded. So I think he still got the potential to be a big-time run score, help you with batting average, you know, help you with steals as much again as, you know, not certainly elite, but, you know, that next tier of base Steelers. and I just think that he's being penalized way too much for last season. Scott, what do you think about Lorenzo, Kane? Let's check the ADPs going 183 overall. And obviously there's some signs of concern, but 2018, like I said, I think he was number 20 in points, number 19 in Roto, and that was in only 141 games. He batted 308 and he stole 30 bases.

Yeah, you would have to. I would have to be confident into steals because I know even if he bounces back, there's not going to be a big power. There's not going to be power output there. And I think a player that I would be more confident would give me more home runs and steals for that matter is going eight picks later on average. Scott Kingery, and he's multi-eligible. So I just have a hard time. even at his going rate, seeing a lot of upside to Kane. I was thinking of that comparison, that same comparison, Scott.

And actually, I'm looking at NFBC ADP, and he's going 25 picks earlier there. So maybe being focused more on that is coloring my idea of what value is. But even if we look at them as being equivalent in ADP, I think that if nothing else, Kane should be so much better for batting average. I think overall value-wise, I think he's going to be a little better than Kingery. And I'm also way more confident of the playing time.

I don't think that Kingery is going to be sitting on the bench, but is it going to be a super utility role or is he going to have a truly steady everyday role? Well, if Kane is back to batting lead-off for second, he was batting lead-off for most of last season, and he moved down in the order in September. I guess they had just had enough. If he's back to batting lead-off or second for the Brewers, then he's not a high-strikeout guy.

So I think he could be a really good third outfielder in points leagues if you want to wait. I don't see a high demand for him in points league. So that could be a good option as well. Next up, Al, Mark Kana. I know Scott likes Mark Kana too. Oh, yeah. Can I get a what-what? This is the originator right here.

Dirty David. They have to recycle that. Yeah, I just, it's a head scratcher to me why his ADP is as low as it is. And so I'm guessing, Scott, you got the CBS up there handy at your disposal. I've got the NFBC in front of me here. He's a 270. 71st among outfielders. 2.92 on fantasy pros.

Yeah. I'll see. This is where we get into that. I would say 258 on fantasy pros. 258. I'm not seeing any 258s. I'm seeing 283, 371, 286, 267, 252. I swear we had this argument like four years ago.

It's a difference of where. Carrickana ranks in ADP versus what the raw ADP number is. I don't see the number you said anywhere on the line next to Marcana. The very left column, 258. 283, I see. If you're ranking every player by ADP, Mark Kana comes in 258. I don't see the number 258, which means you and I are pulling different sources from fantasy pros. Okay.

It's just fantasy pros ADP. I've got five of five sources on February. either way it's very low i mean 258 means he's outside the drafting draftable range in and in shallower leagues you know

which is crazy because he i mean i don't want to take all of that i was talking point so i i will just say that the comparison i've been making is michael conforto and he goes like 150 picks later yeah no that's exactly it Here are some of the players in NFBC who are going far ahead, several rounds ahead.

Nick Senzel, Joe Adele, Mitch Hanneker, Alex Verdugo, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Nomar Mazzara, A.J. Pollock. I don't get it. Mark Hanna had a 913 OPS. That's exceptional. So is he good? I mean, this is obviously, he's going to be 31. So he had an age 30 breakout. He hits in a bad park and he batted 238 at home. home, but he was very good at home in 2018.

But yeah, it's just one of those situations where it really came out of nowhere. And is he good? Is Mark Kana good? Tell me why you're convinced that he's good. You know what? I'm not totally 100% convinced that he's good. I'm convinced that he should be good enough to be in a 12-team league and drafted ahead of Mitch Hanigur because we don't even know how much time he's going

to miss or Alex Verdugo because we're not even sure what kind of hitter he's going to be. I mean, Canada, at least last year, demonstrated serious proven upside. Yeah. Well, I'll find, I'll add some concrete points. He was a starter from June 26th on, and from that point on, basically provided Chris Bryant numbers. So forget Michael Conforto. If you want to aim really high with your comp, Chris Bryant is potentially one there because he's such a good on-base guy. He had always, he had kind of gotten pigeonholed as a platoon player early.

in his career, he hit Ritey's even better than lefties last year, crushed Ritees. He made a change to his approach where he started laying off outside pitches. And if you look at on the heat maps on fan graphs, it seems to back up the narrative there. He swung much less at those. And that made him, I think that contributed

to the spike in walks and also made him more productive on the pitches he did swing at. So it really seems. seemed like he just figured things out. Perhaps someone who figured something out. Starlin Castro, after the All-Star break, he batted 302, 334 on base. That's not his strength, but a 558 slugging percentage. 16 home runs after the All-Star break for Starlin Castro.

Seven in August, seven in September, so it wasn't just one huge month or anything like that. Now he's with the Nationals. He also had a pretty decent road numbers, 286 batting average, 447 slugging. I don't know what that really means. in the second base landscape these days. But Al, Starlin Castro is someone that you put on your list of players you like. Yeah, and it's a little bit similar to Kana in that I'm not convinced that he's going to carry that over. I typically get hung up on like one or two players who have great second halves in drafts the following year,

particularly ones who are not landing on the radar of a lot of other owners. And it's usually pretty low risk. and sometimes it really works out. And Castro, his NFBC ADP, is 277. So, you know, pretty much same neighborhood as Kana. And second base is not particularly deep. He's going to a park that's an enormous upgrade for him. I mean, he's going from one of the worst parks for hitters and particularly for power

to one of the best, both for home runs and doubles. And the team context should obviously be much, much better, too. So it just seems like there's very little risk here. he's going undrafted in 12-team leagues generally, and yet, you know, I look at players in like the 15 to 20 range, Colton Wong, Kevin Newman. There's a couple of examples. Routenade O'Dore, who hasn't really done much of anything in three years,

is going 50 spots ahead of them. So what's the risk? Interesting. Is Howie Kendrick the risk? Is Starlin Cash are going to play every day? Does he need to, you know, to give you value? I think he pretty much does, and I don't worry too much about how he, Kendrick. I mean, if you look back to last year, well, first of all, there's always the question of how much of the year he's going to be healthy.

But I think, well, you know, when he is healthy, that he'll just move around. And I think there could be spots like last year where he doesn't play that much. Two more players for Al. Let's go to Lucas Gialito. I made fun, relentlessly made fun of Scott for taking Lucas Gialito over like Jose Alito. Tuve and Aaron Judge in a draft. Scott was doing it to prove a point. I don't know if you would do that, Al.

It was a points league, just to put that out there. But yes, my approach this year, Al, is, I actually wrote a column about it. In Roto League steals, but in all leagues, high-end starting pitchers, that's the only real currency in fantasy anymore. Those are the only things that matter, so I am going all out for those two things. At a points league, obviously, it's just the pitchers, not the steals. Yeah. Well, and so that was really more a statement about that strategy than about Gioito per se. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead, Al. He was number 17 of points, number 13 in Roto last year. He struck out 228 batters and 176 and 2 thirds.

Yeah. So this is not a huge undervaluing that's going on. Again, I'm looking at FBC. He's 14th in ADP among pitchers. And he's certainly behind, he's right behind Patrick Corbyn, who's well established, obviously, Chris Sale, who still has tremendous upside, but considerable risk. Same thing with Blake Snell. But I just think that he needs to be up a few spots higher in drafts that I've been in. I feel like he's fallen a little bit too far, because when you break down what he did in that breakout last year, I mean, everything he did was on pretty much an elite level in terms of whiffs and getting chases on out of the. own pitches and he did have a little bit of a home run problem but you know I think he pretty much is is if not exactly on a par with the big four he's not that far off and I think he pretty much holds his own with anybody from Bueller on down so you know he's 14th I think he should really

should be like top 10 or 11 and he's still going to face Detroit and he's going to face He's Cleveland, and he's going to face Kansas City. You know, Cleveland might not be terrible. Yeah, I took a look at the schedule for Lucas Julito to see how he did against better opponents. And he had a complete game shutout against Houston, but that was without Altuve, without Springer, without Jordan Alvarez, before Alvarez got called up. And presumably without any trash cans at the dugout. Presumably.

I won't go through everything, but he had five innings, scoreless against Minnesota. He had six innings, one-run run against the Yankees. He had some clunkers, too. But that was one thing I was looking for because I looking forward with him. I knew he had beat up sort of on bad competition. He held his own, some good, some bad against the good teams. But obviously he's not going to face great teams every time out. Skies, there anything that worries you about Gialita?

Not statistically, just the fact that nobody wanted him at this time a year ago. And it was a rather sudden transformation. But it was a whole scale transformation. It was pitch selection changed through harder. Not that much, to be honest. Not any more than worries me about the typical... That would worry me about any pitcher, frankly. They're all pretty volatile, but they're all pretty replaceable, too.

One more pitcher. Last one that Al likes. He only likes two pitchers is here. Gio Lido and David Price. David Price. And I like three hitters. Yeah, three hitters. He's going to have Lorenzo, Cain, Marcana,

Starlin Castro, Lucas Gio, and David Price on every... every team. All right, go ahead, make your price sales pitch. Yeah, I wasn't even going for that. And then I was like, oh, this is a pun. Those are the best. Yeah. Well, I wrote a piece for the athletic that just came out today. And so that was very much top of mind for me. And frankly, if you'd asked me to make this list a week ago, Price probably wouldn't have been on it. And this isn't just a knee-jerk reaction to the fact that now he's a Dodger and he's out of the AL East and the NL West. And in the piece, I basically, the argument in a nutshell is that price was actually much,

much better than the 4.28 ERA that he put up with the Red Sox last year. There's no way I can argue around the health concerns with him. He's made four IL stints in the last three years and three of them have been for elbow injury. So that's obviously a concern. but he's currently 73rd among pitchers. That's all pitchers, not starters. He's 53rd among starters in ADP on NFBC.

And that's just for the upside that he has. If you just adjust what he did last year based on the skills, he was basically once again like a 3.5 ERA pitcher. And the skills were intact. He actually, with more batters, his four-seem fastball was a much, much better pitch last year for swinging strikes and for ground balls. So he was, you know, no worse a pitcher last year than he was in 2018 or many of the years prior to that.

He's moving to the NL. It's not as much of an upgrade as a lot of people, I think, are making it out to be. But I don't think he needs the upgrade. I think if anything, the situation with the Dodgers is advantageous because they probably will protect his innings and maybe help him be a little bit more durable. And, you know, you probably see that, you know, those stats. you're accustomed to seem for price, like a 3.5 out ERA, a 1.15 or 1.18 whip somewhere in that neighborhood, you know, with the possibility of maybe winning 13, 14, 15 games and well over a strikeout per inning. Okay. And, you know, we've talked about it before. First 17 starts, 316 ERA, 1.15 whip.

and then his last five starts, 947 ERA, and, you know, injuries play a role. So Price was pretty good for much of the season, but wasn't going deep into games. He only had eight quality starts in those 17 starts. But yeah, I think a lot of, okay, yeah, we're into it. We're into it. Good list, Al. Again, it is Lorenzo Kane, Starlin Castro, Mark Kana, Lucas Gialito, and David Price. Ready for some emails?

I'm ready. There we go. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Scott's ready, Al's ready. Joe from New York, I listened to every day last year, and Ramon Luriano got praises daily. I credited a part of my championship last season to picking up Ramon Luriano. Why hasn't he been mentioned yet this season, Scott? I think the simple explanation is there's just so many more players to talk about this time.

If you're in-season podcast is a little different from pre-season podcasts, because in-season podcasts, you're pretty much the fringy. the fringy rostered guys get outsized coverage because they're the ones people are looking at most. And probably it was in last July when Luriano was on an incredible stretch that we were talking about him every day.

He's at the back end of my top 30 outfielders. He's a guy who will give you some speed, though probably not 20 steel speed. But enough that you target him in part to help with that. I think the ceiling is decidedly second tier, and there are enough outfielders that verge on first tier status that I'm not terribly excited to draft Luriano. But he doesn't really have any weaknesses except for, I guess, walks and on-base percentage

in leagues where those matter. Yeah, 27 walks of 123 strikeouts, but hit 288 in each of his two major league seasons, he's 25 years old. and Luriano, I mean, he's got a career 853 OPS with, let's see, 20 steals in 171 games, but perhaps it could have been better than they had 13 steals in 123 games this year. All right, Al, what do you think about Luriano? Yeah, well, I certainly agree with, you know, Scott's assessment that, you know, we're not talking about. I haven't talked about him at all. I haven't written about him at all because he's established himself.

I don't think there's much, you know, playing time's not going to be a question. The general skill set, I think he's established it. And so I don't, I'm not really looking for any sort of drop off there. Well, he's quite costly, according to fantasy pros, although Scott and I maybe were spelling fantasy pros differently and going to different websites. But according to me, he's going 93rd overall. So right after Eddie Rosario, before. I see the 93 number you're referring to.

It's all the way on the right. I'm saying the number all the way on the left. The left of Ramon Luriano's name is 89. Oh, that number. Oh, you know what? No, my number is so much better than yours. I disagree. Because my number is telling people.

Your number means there is no player with a two ADP. There is no player who's second-trout. One point eight. One point eight, Mike Trout. You round up, Scott, he's two. Okay. There's no four. There's like a dozen players who are,

you know, 120 one whatever I'm trying to find a good example but like yeah it gets

it gets to large gaps of the draft get skipped just by virtue of how averages work how finding the average of something works I'm telling you where he goes

on average he goes 93rd he's 89th in average ADP which means there are 88 players that have a higher ADP I think the way I do

it makes more I agree with that. All right. So anyway, he's going after Eddie Rosario, Loriano, before Tommy Pham, before Josh Donaldson, before Andrew Benintendi. That sounds better than the way you described him, Scott.

Okay. I'm just saying. I'm just saying. Where his ADP shows him in the outfield. Let me look that up right now. Luriano in the outfield. They have him 24th. I said he was at the back end of my top 30.

So it may just be that I, look, these are, these are roto ADP results, which I would assume means mostly five outfielder leagues. How would you rank those guys, Rosario Luriano, fam? I would rank them fam Rosario Luriano. Al. Oh, boy, this is bad because I actually have published, well, you guys do too. You have published hit of rankings, and this is really, I'm going to say top of mind, I probably have them, FAM Rosario, or I mean, FAM Luriano Rosario. Okay.

Now I'm going to test myself. But you both have FAM first, at least you think you do. I do have FAM first. I mean, he's the most, he's probably going to give you the most deals at the group. And certainly in leagues where there's, we're on baseball. percentage matters at on. He's far and away better than the other two. True. True. I might have to adjust my rankings because I actually have Rosario ahead of Laureano and my gut went the opposite on that.

Next email is from Justin and Toronto. Hey, Craig, Dante and Vlad. We know them, Toronto. I'm in a head-to-head dynasty points league that does not allow us to pick up or drop anyone during the season. This format forces you to be very selective when carrying prospects. are Nick Povetta or Kyle Wright worth hanging on to anymore? I would say not Nick Povetta. Kyle Wright, he's a top 65 prospect for me,

so I just don't know how deep your league goes into the prospect pool, but considering it's a points league which would favor pitchers more, I would lean yes on Kyle Wright, but if only 40 prospects are being kept total, maybe not. Yeah, obviously, it depends on the depth of the league.

But, you know, Scott, if I'm thinking about the league where you're the commissioner, you know, our head-to-head Dynasty League. Yeah, it's a 2014 league. Yeah. So, you know, that was kind of my initial reference points. Like, well, of course I would keep both of these guys. But, yeah, obviously, right, gets a priority. From David, I've seen Mitch Keller pretty low on a lot of rankings, both for single season and dynasty.

He's 23-year-old top prospect with a pretty secure starting job, who just pitched to a good ex-fipp and high K-rate in the majors in his debut. What are your thoughts on Mitch Keller's future? Somebody hasn't seen my sleepers list. Yeah, Mitch Keller, I invest so heavily in the arms I feel like I can trust that I generally don't have to take a flyer on an upside guy late. But Mitch Keller would be pretty high on my list of the ones I do because he's, He had an ERA over seven during his time in the majors, but he missed a lot of bats.

His ex-fip was actually in the mid-thrys. It would have been, I don't know, top 15 or something overall. It's obviously small sample size, and maybe it's not even fair to cite that. But my point is just that he looked better than the seven-something ERA. And he really, really blew up in the minors in terms of strikeouts. He added a slider to his repertoire that immediately became his best swing and miss pitch. He had been searching for that third pitch throughout his minor league career, kept trying for a change up.

Didn't happen, but that slider really seems to have moved him over the hump. He has a great fastball. That's what made him a top prospect in the first place. And I think we were nearing a point where we should worry about every pirate's pitching prospect, just because they didn't seem to know what to do with them. But now total regime change, I think Keller's a pretty good bet to meet his upside. Here's our old mate, Richard Punch. Remember Richard Punch, Al?

I sure do. Yeah, from Australia. He says, Good A, Blue Sox, Bullets, and Calvary. Okay. I'm still not getting references. I feel like you should know that, Al. Picking up right where I left off.

I mean, I don't know that. I just feel like Al should. I feel like minor league teams to me. I don't know. Manassas Calvary. I don't know. Yeah, okay. 12-team standard,

five-by-five head-to-head categories, Keeper League. Managers keep eight players with no price or penalty, and you can keep them as long as you want. He's keeping Pete Alonzo, Jordon Alvarez, Vlad, Jr., Rizzo, and Scherzer. So choose three from this group. Altuve, Correa, Sale, J.D. Martinez, Jose Ramirez, and Gavin Lux.

You can keep them as long as you want. Altuve, Correa, Sale, J.D. Martinez, Jose Ramirez, and Gavin Lux. Sale and Ramirez, for sure. Jose Ramirez. I think I'd lean Correa here. He's still so young. I do worry about the back becoming a long-term issue for him, but I think picking anyone else here is getting too cute.

Unless you go out too bad. Maybe you go out. But J.D. Martinez goes ahead. I was going to say, I'm really cute because I'll take Martinez over Korea. Yeah. I mean, if you feel like, if you feel like you have. Okay, I'm probably the one being too cute by going. Yeah.

I regret everything. You know what it was? My head was out of it because I was looking up Blue Sox bullets and cavalry. Apparently those are Australian baseball league teams. Which would make sense. Oh, the Brisbane, Brisbane Bullet Bandits. Brisbane, right?

How do you say Brisbane? I think it's Brisbane. Yeah, Brisbane. All right, Southside, Rusty. Dear Toby, Stanley, Phyllis, and Creed. I know that one. Al, do you know that one, Al? No.

Toby, Stanley, Phyllis, and Creed. Do you have Netflix? Uh, no. I don't know that it's going to be on Netflix for much longer. Oh, really? I'm not sure. I know Friends is out. I'm speaking from an area of expertise I don't have.

I don't think Friends is on. The office, obviously, and it's, uh, it's, uh, it is definitely the defining sitcom of its generation. So you need to get versed in that one now. Yeah. And you could skip season one. Yeah, I should have known that one. Skip season one. It's six episodes.

It sets up some stuff. That's three hours of his life. It's three hours of his life. It's worth. We're like two hours. All right. 12 team six by six category. Keeper League.

Keep forever. Grade the trade slash make me feel better. I gave up Noon Aeronado for Yoamon Munkata and Michael Kopeck. Wow, it's a homer move. It's outside, Rusty. It could be great. Yeah, it's D plus. It's not good.

It's not good. Hey, it could be an A plus. If everything goes right, right? Could be an A plus? Yeah, if they become... The chances of either one becoming a star on Nolan Aeronado's level, I think, is so small. They both could become fine players, but... I mean, we already have a pretty good idea who Moncada is, and it's significantly less than that.

I mean, maybe he could grow into a little bit more, but I... I don't know. I think Aeronado. Aronado is one of those franchise-shaping players that you don't give up without getting one back in return unless it's a cost difference kind of thing. And I'm assuming all of these players are being kept on equal terms. So it's just a no. Sounds good. Al, D-plus for you,

but it was an A-plus return. Thanks for coming on. Oh, my pleasure. When I said A-plus return, I meant your return. I didn't mean the return that he got to trade. I had to mull that over for a second. But thank you for having me on. Thank you for asking me back.

It's a pleasure, man. We love having you on. We miss you. Let me know when you're in New York. I feel like you come to New York sometimes. You don't let me know. Tart Wars weekend. Okay.

I would probably be there. I never go anywhere. Scott White, thank you. Position previews tomorrow, Scott. Get ready. Oh, yeah. I am beyond ready.

Adam. I'm even doing strategy write-ups for each position. Oh, nice. I'll be in good shape when those start. Although I think we're starting with relief pitcher. We are. The written form I'm definitely not starting with relief pitcher.

So maybe I'll be totally clueless. We'll see. It's the dumbest one to start with because it changes the most throughout spring training. But I start with it every year because it's just like kind of an easy one to research. And it just, you know, just get it out of the way. But we'll, you know, we'll have to update. We'll have to do version two. That's Al Malky.

and Scott White. This is Dejaou. I'm Adam Azer. Talk to you tomorrow on fantasy baseball.