Fantasy Baseball Today - Anthony Rizzo Triple Dong! Buy-High Pitchers, Drop-O-Meter & More (4/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 27, 2022

Woah there! We got some offense Tuesday night, starting with Anthony Rizzo's three homers (1:00). Patrick Sandoval had his best start of the season. Is Charlie Blackmon back? ... Let's take a closer l...ook at Wander Franco, Adolis Garcia and Trevor Story (16:10). ... Where should Ian Happ, Eric Hosmer, and Santiago Espinal be added (24:56)? ... News and notes (34:11): Adalberto Mondesi is hurt. ... What's the latest research telling us about this humidor situation (39:00)? ... Should you buy-high on these pitchers (45:35)? ... What does the Drop-O-Meter say about these players (49:28)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (56:00). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Whoa there, you wanted offense. We got a bunch of it on Tuesday night.
Starting point is 00:00:30 Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, April 27th. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers today on the show. We're going to deep dive a few here. hitters doing big things, or at least they did on Tuesday. We'll see how sustainable it is, some buy-high pitching candidates, the dropometer, and much more. But first, take it away, Susan. Oh, my goodness gracious.
Starting point is 00:00:56 Oh, my goodness gracious, Scott. Who you got? I'm going to talk about Anthony Rizzo for, oh, my goodness gracious, a three-homer game. He's up to eight on the year. This is a guy whose home runs were in steep decline. for several years, and I had pretty much written him off coming into the year. I had him outside my top 20 at first base, even though he had been a top 10 performer for so long.
Starting point is 00:01:23 But now he's hitting a bunch of home runs again. Now, two of the home runs were Yankee Stadium home runs. Home runs that wouldn't have gone out in many other stadiums at all. I think we were talking before the show. I think he said, Chris, the average distance of the three home runs was 350 feet. So some short home runs being hit. But Yankee Stadium is his home now. And he seems to have adapted to it.
Starting point is 00:01:49 It seems probable to me it's very intentional that his fly ball rate and pull rate are both way up so far. And not that they were bad to begin with, but they're way up right now. So it's almost like he's taking aim at that short porch in right field. and the results are obviously good so far. He maintains a low strikeout rate. He did that even throughout his struggles the past few years. And I recently moved him into my top 12 at first base. I think you have to.
Starting point is 00:02:23 Let's see. Who notably did I move him ahead of? I didn't move him ahead of like Reese Hoskins or even Joey Votto. Though I can understand why somebody might want to put Joey Votto behind him. I just have unusual faith in Joey Votto, I guess. but they're close to equal footing right now, probably Rizzo and Votto for me. Yeah, I recently moved Rizzo up to 14 in the first base ranks. That was obviously before this game.
Starting point is 00:02:50 I could see moving ahead of Max Muncie, J. Kronaworth, and then you get into, like, Thai France, who obviously we've all moved way up, is off to a great start. And then there's Votto and Hoskins and the rest of the profit pockets. CJ Cron and Josh Bell are off to pretty good start. So, yeah, look, if Rizzo continues to do this, We'll continue to move him up, obviously. But Scott, you highlighted.
Starting point is 00:03:11 I moved him ahead of Torkelson. That was probably a one. One of his home runs, he had four balls hit between 97.6 and 99 miles per hour today, which is very impressive. Those are four hard hit balls. One of them had a launch angle of 48 degrees and went 327 feet. Beautiful. Like, where would you set,
Starting point is 00:03:37 the XBA on that batting ball. Expect the batting average for a ball with a 48 degree launch angle on 327 foot distance. I think I saw it, Chris. I think it was like under 100. Yeah, I would set it at under 100, sure. Divide that
Starting point is 00:03:53 by 10. It had an expected batting average of 0.10. Oof. The other home runs had an expected batting average of 380 and 180.
Starting point is 00:04:06 his ground out had a higher expected batting average than any of his home runs today. I don't know what to do. You'd love it. Yes, he plays at Yankee Stadium. And so, like, this is what we expected Anthony Rizzo to do last season. I mean, not this. This is a, what, 55 homer pace, maybe more? Nobody expected that.
Starting point is 00:04:31 But we expected him to be very good in Yankee Stadium. And so I'm inclined to believe he will continue to be good at Yankee Stadium. But I also think there's definitely an opportunity to sell Anthony Rizzo right now. Oh, for sure, for sure. Yeah. Because he's the number one first baseman right now. I assume he passed Thai France with this performance. We thought he would be good when he got traded last year.
Starting point is 00:04:56 But none of us moved him into our top fives at first base after the trade. So I would be inclined to. try to move Anthony Rizzo right now. If someone gave me Joey Votto for Anthony Rizzo. I would rather have Votto. Even though I wouldn't necessarily rather have Votto in my lineup right at this moment than Anthony Rizzo. What does that factor into the thinking? But I would rather have Joey Votto for the rest of the season.
Starting point is 00:05:26 I have more faith in Joey Votto. Oh, that went so close, Chris. I don't like I just I just finished saying I have. Votto ranked ahead of Rizzo still, and I do. But if I had Rizzo right now and somebody offered me Joey Votto for him, I would expect more than Joey Votto for. Sure, right. That's fair. I'm not going out and sending a trade offer of Anthony Rizzo for Joey Votto, although that is a classic buy-low, sell-high situation.
Starting point is 00:05:56 I think you could probably get more than that. You have little faith. I suspect the Votto owner is, and they shouldn't be this way, but I, I think just human nature, this is the way the average fantasy player thinks, is like getting close to dropping Votto, at least seriously considering it at this point. And they shouldn't.
Starting point is 00:06:17 But yeah, I mean, that's just, you should be able to buy Votto really low and using Rizzo is not the way to do that. I don't think you can pull this off, but if you can, like, try and buy one of the pitchers who are off to a slow start, like a Zach Wheeler, someone like that, Freddie Peralta got back on track a little bit.
Starting point is 00:06:36 I'm sure you can pull it off in some leagues. It just depends how savvy the group that you're playing with. It's not a bad idea to recommend. Yeah. Look, Rizzo last year, past couple of years really has been dealing with this back injury too. So I think as long as he's healthy and he's basically selling out for power in Yankee Stadium.
Starting point is 00:06:53 And I sell that like, I say that loosely because he's not striking out more or anything. He's literally just hitting the ball in the air and pulling it more. He's actually hitting the ball really hard too. I think he's going to be good as long as he's healthy. you just kind of worry with that back injury of the past couple of years. He's hot right now.
Starting point is 00:07:08 You know, in like the classic sense of the word. Sure. Yeah. So, you know, that's, it's also worth keeping that in mind that.
Starting point is 00:07:15 His hot streak happened to coincide with the start of the season, which is always nice. Especially when there's almost no offense anywhere else, Chris. Yeah, but it's important to not let that color your perception too much. Because he will have a cold streak at some point.
Starting point is 00:07:32 He will, he will have a best. added ball that goes 327 feet and the Yankees happen to be playing in a real major league stadium and it'll just be an out. What a hater. I mean, what a hater. Over under 20 home runs the rest of the year for Anthony Rizzo. Over under 20. So that would be over over 19 and a half home runs, let's say. I would probably take the under. I'll take the over. That would get him to 28 home runs. At least 28. I'll take the over to 28 home runs would be the most he's had in the season since 2017.
Starting point is 00:08:02 Yep. He's got to stay healthy, but if he does, I think he can get there, obviously, with this toured pace that he's off to. 76 home runs is what Anthony Rissot is on pace right now. Eight home runs over his first 17 games here. Chris, oh my goodness,
Starting point is 00:08:16 gracious for you. Yeah, it had been a disappointing start for Patrick Standoval, who we were talking before the show. You guys don't really have Patrick Sandoval on any of your teams. That's because I have him on all of my teams. And so it's been especially disappointing start for him,
Starting point is 00:08:33 but he was excellent tonight, nine strikeouts, one walk and seven innings, two hits allowed against Cleveland, obviously Cleveland. Pretty good matchup. But yeah, the changeup looked like we want it to look today.
Starting point is 00:08:48 He got nine swinging strikes with that. Had a 38% called plus, called strike plus whiff rate. I think I got it right that time, which is very, very good. quality of contact metrics were all pretty good. So, yeah, this was exactly the kind of start we wanted to see from Patrick Sandoval.
Starting point is 00:09:09 Because he had only gone four in each of his first three starts, which was not a great sign, or each of his first two starts. Two, yeah, this was only his third start. But, yeah, excellent, excellent stuff from Patrick Sandoval, exactly what we wanted to see. And I noticed for Sandoval, too, in those first two starts, he threw his change up only 19.2. percent of the time the change up is the pitch we've been raving about all along. It was 34% of the
Starting point is 00:09:36 time in this start responsible for nine of his 15 swinging strikes. So I think like because the strike out numbers, the swinging strike numbers, they weren't that impressive in those first two starts in addition to them being short. And I think maybe he just hadn't gotten that change up to mid-season form now. And maybe this was this was the start of it. So his, I noticed his roster rate was down to 82% on our site, which given how rostered pitchers are on our site specifically because of all the head-to-head points leagues. Like that, it shocked me how low that points.
Starting point is 00:10:07 This is a two-start week, right? I, well, they have a six-man. No, they have a six-man rotation. It wouldn't be. Yeah, so it wasn't. Next week, though. As long as they don't have a day off. Yeah, if they have seven games next week, it would be for Patrick Sandel. What I love most about this start was the control. I mean, in his first two starts, he had five walks total in this one, just one walk, and walks have been an issue for Patrick Sandoval in the past.
Starting point is 00:10:31 So we know the whiffs are there. It's just he can get himself into trouble a little bit when he starts walking too many batters. Chris, I don't know if you saw this, but I was watching the Angels game and they put up a graphic that showed Sandoval's average fastball velocity. The first two endings of this start, 95 miles per hour. The next three innings, it was between 93 and 94. The final two endings of work for him, he was below 91 miles per hour on the fastball. It might not mean much. Obviously, this was the deepest he's gone into any start this season. But does that matter to you at all that the fastball Velo dropped off as precipitously as it did for Sandoval in the start?
Starting point is 00:11:07 I mean, it would matter if it meant he was hurt. But absent any other evidence, like he threw 90 pitches in this start, he hadn't gone deep into his previous couple of starts. We know that this is still a point where, like, I think this would be right or right. the point where guys would be ending spring training relative to where spring training began. So I still think you can give a little leeway on that. But it's certainly something to monitor. If we see a similar trend the next couple of times out, that wouldn't be ideal. But no, it's nothing too alarming right now.
Starting point is 00:11:46 All in all, a tremendous start for Patrick Sandoval. By the way, from that game. Do you know who leads Major League Baseball in OPS right now? Mike Trout. Yeah. Yep. He's good. He's back on track.
Starting point is 00:12:01 He looks pretty good. Yeah. I think, what was it? Three more hits in this game. He hit his two more hits in this game. A double his fifth home run of the season. Banging well over 300. White Trout.
Starting point is 00:12:13 He's pretty good. I moved him back up to second in my outfield ranks. And I moved Ronald de Cunia up to fourth in my outfield ranks, by the way. Oh, I mean, just call him up now. I did something similar, Scott. I moved Trout up to two in points leagues And then I believe I moved Acuna up to two in Roto Trout is 99th percentile in sprint speed right now
Starting point is 00:12:34 I mean be nice to get him running on the base pads I saw a play where he was just zooming around the bases I think it was a double by Jared Walsh Tried actually got thrown out at the plate ironically enough But he was yeah he was flying so it would be awesome to to get him to run a little bit For me oh my goodness gracious Charlie Blackman a double dong on Tuesday, now has four home runs.
Starting point is 00:12:56 Three of those four are on the road this season. And what I noticed for him, the pull rate, much like Anthony Rizzo, and a few other hitters we'll talk about, the pull rate is way up for Charlie Blackman. He's at 50% entering Tuesday's action, the two home runs that he hit, they were to the pole side. And for his career, that's 41.5%.
Starting point is 00:13:15 So we said this time and time again for hitters who hit for power, who are not necessarily power hit. hitters, a way that they've been able to do that is by pulling the ball more than ever. And Scott, if Charlie Blackman is starting to do that, this might be part of the, I don't know, renaissance for his career. I don't think he's going to go out and hit 30 home runs again, but if he's pulling the ball this much, you know, maybe we can get 20, 25 home runs again
Starting point is 00:13:42 from Charlie Blackman, which would be very welcome. It would be the Black Monasson, by the way. I'm not going to rule it out. But I'm going to bet against it. I'm going to bet against it because you'd think if that's what was happening, if he was pulling the ball in a way that would allow him to be more prolific with Homer. You'd think it would show up in the stat cast data. Specifically the expected slug.
Starting point is 00:14:14 He entered this game with an expected slug of 403, which is the lowest it's been since 2015, the first year of stat cast. I'm sure he wasn't even a good play. yet when that started. So, you know, even last year it was 457 versus 403. And that's before this game with the two home runs, and it's probably higher now. But I just, you know, his average exit velocity is only in the 35th percentile, and it's consistently low. And I just think it's a long shot that that's how this plays out for Charlie Blackman,
Starting point is 00:14:51 especially given the environment we're dealing with this year. Yeah, I mean, 25 is probably a stretch, but if he gets to 20 home runs with the way that he makes contact and playing in Corr's field, I mean,
Starting point is 00:15:05 that's just going to lend itself right there to probably a 270 plus batting average. It's not a tremendous player. It's not a standout player, but it's a much more valuable player than he was last year or even in the shortened season.
Starting point is 00:15:17 I don't know what a standout player is anymore, Frank. Throw numbers out. me. I don't know what they mean. Look, right now, Charlie Blackman might be a standout player the way that offense is going right now. But yeah, uh, yeah, look, it's, it's a welcome site for Charlie Blackman. Also a welcome site for Willie Adamas on Tuesday. All he needed to do was go up against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He might have listened to the podcast last night. Who knows, Scott? But, uh, a double dong for Willie Adamas as well. Three hits seven RBI in this game. Had a bunch of people
Starting point is 00:15:45 tweeting at us saying, man, thank you for talking up Willie Adamas and getting him back on track. So Patience, everybody. Good players, they're going to be fine. It's a weird season so far with these humadors. We'll talk about that a little bit later on, but the underlying stats. I'm sure you mentioned this yesterday, but the underlying stats mostly look fine for Willie Adomas. Yeah, yeah, that's true. All right, so I wanted to, we've talked about Rizzo, we've talked about Charlie Blackman. There are a few other hitters. I wanted to take a little bit of a peek under the hood. I don't know what to name this segment. I just wrote Under the Hood. I also thought something with like Secret Sauce. if anyone has a better name, email us in and let us know what we should name this segment.
Starting point is 00:16:23 Wanda Franco went one for five with his fourth home run of the season through 16 games now. He had seven home runs through 70 games last season. And how is he doing this so far? He's hitting the ball harder overall. His home run to fly ball ratio is way up. It's going to go up after this latest home run that he hit. But is it sustainable? And I took a look, 97.6 mile per hour average exit velocity on fly balls and line.
Starting point is 00:16:48 drives is 12th best in baseball. So, Christy, answer to that question is if Wanderfranco continues hitting the ball as hard as he is in the air, then I think this very high home run to fly ball ratio might be sustainable for him. Yeah, I mean, that's a, that's an if for sure. But yeah, based on what we've seen so far, the underlying number suggests that like, the underlying number, Underlying numbers suggest that he hasn't been particularly lucky. I think is the best way to put it. You know, maybe he should have three home runs instead.
Starting point is 00:17:20 I don't know what the actual, like maybe he should have 3.7 home runs instead of four, something like that. I don't know. But he's hitting the ball really well right now. He's been, I mean, he's got to have one of the highest swing rates in baseball. I'm 54% right now.
Starting point is 00:17:38 He's going up and he's hacking. He's barely walking at all three. percent walk rate, but he's also not missing when he swings, and he's not sacrificing quality of contact, even though he's being super aggressive. So, you know, I think that all speaks to the preternatural skill set that this guy has and how good he can be. So it looks slightly different than what we expected from Wanderfranco, but I think you have to be pretty encouraged so far. He also has one steal on the season, so a very welcome site there. Not that we expect him to steal that many bases, but again, the power is welcome early on here for Wander Franco.
Starting point is 00:18:22 Adolese Garcia is an interesting name. He hit his third home run of the season, and the profile is kind of interesting for Adolice Garcia this early. The walk rate is up to 8%, not great by any means, but it is higher than it was last year. And his strikeout rate is down. 26% compared to 31% last season. Scott, Adolios Garcia is crushing the ball early on, 94 mile per hour average exit velocity. I think with this improved plate discipline
Starting point is 00:18:50 hitting the ball as hard as he is, a little bit of power, a little bit of speed, I think that Adolese Garcia is improving overall and we might see that kind of bear out as the season goes along. Well, I'm going to pour cold water on this idea too, Frank. All right. Sorry to be. sorry to be the negative one today,
Starting point is 00:19:11 but yes, it is true. Adolice's Garcia's, or Dolis Garcia's walk rate is up for the season. In his last 11 games, he has one walk and 14 strikeouts. So, you know, one of the principal ideas of Moneyball that now 20-year-old book is that plate discipline can't really be taught
Starting point is 00:19:41 and I think time has shown that to a degree it can be but it's still something you should bet against so you know he walked a bunch in his first few games but I think I think that's normalizing for Garcia which isn't to say he still can't be what we drafted him to be which is a low batting average power speed guy
Starting point is 00:19:58 but I I'm not I'm not really anticipating a step forward for Garcia this year Okay. I just remember him going so late in drafts. And obviously in points leagues, he takes a hit because of that plate discipline. But, you know, in Roto, if he hits between 230 and 250 with 25 homers and 15 to 20 steals, that's all pretty valuable player. So we'll see if Adoles Garcia can pull that off.
Starting point is 00:20:23 Trevor's story, I want to take a look here because under the hood for the wrong reasons, he went one for five with two more strikeouts on Tuesday. He's betting 231. Does not have a homer so far this season. Chris, anything under the hood here that you notice with Trevor Story that actually has you worried. I mean, obviously there's going to be a transition period, going from the NL to the AL, from Corse Field to Fenway. But what are you seeing with Trevor Story? Well, first of all, he had a 414-foot bad ball today.
Starting point is 00:20:51 So that's the kind of thing where, like, yeah, he doesn't have a home run. He very easily could have today. Too bad he's not. Too bad he's not Anthony. He would have been a home run. Yeah, yeah. I'm not sure exactly where he hit it, but I would guess it was to that weird
Starting point is 00:21:08 triangle thing at Fenway. I think they're at Toronto right now. The weird triangle thing in Toronto. Whatever. He's not hitting the ball well right now. You know, there's not much beyond it. It's not like his bat at ball profile
Starting point is 00:21:28 is what it normally is and he's just not getting the benefit of course field. He's not hitting the ball well at all. right now. His average Xe velocity, hard hit rate, like whatever you want to point at, it's all in the 35 percentile or lower. 15th percent on hard hit rate, 33 percentile and Exile Exavila Eccity, 18th percentile on barrel rate.
Starting point is 00:21:54 He was never John Carlos Stanton in regards to those things. But consistently throughout his career at course as a rocky, even last season, he was well above average in the quality of contact metrics. And so, I don't know, maybe switching leagues and not signing until relatively late and all that stuff, maybe that's just thrown him off and he just won't have a good season because of all that. But I tend to think the likeliest answer is that he's just not locked in right now. And we're going to see a stretch where Trevor Story's locked in fairly soon. and eventually the numbers will look more or less like we hope they will.
Starting point is 00:22:35 All right. Well, this goes without saying, but if you can flip Anthony Rizzo for Trevor Story, I think it's something you should look into doing. Yes, absolutely. Yes. I don't know how many of these.
Starting point is 00:22:47 We talked about this yesterday, Frank, where I kind of look at barrel rate as an indicator of hot or cold. Trevor Story's barrel rate is 3%. At least it was entering this game. Yeah. So that would suggest. that he hasn't heated up yet. He hasn't been barreling up balls
Starting point is 00:23:05 the way we're used to seeing him do. Not that those barrels would be nearly as valuable. No. That's another discussion. What's up, Chris? What were you going to say? Oh, I just, could I put another, could I throw another player in this group
Starting point is 00:23:21 to look under the hood? Yep. Could Brian Hayes had a, was a three-hit game today? Yes. Yes. Three hits and a walk today. Double jinks from Frank and I.
Starting point is 00:23:33 There are some really good things happening with Guy Brian Hayes right now. His quality of contact metrics are up across the board, and he's still hitting the ball on the ground too much, but plate discipline much better so far than we've seen in either of the previous two seasons or stretches that we've seen from him. He's hitting a ton of line drives. He's hitting the ball hard.
Starting point is 00:23:58 His expected batting average entering today before three-hit game was 327. So I like what we're seeing from Cabrion Hayes right now. The home runs, yeah, zero home runs. That's not great. He's got a high Babbitt, but he's earning that high Babbitt right now. And I think the home runs are going to come. So I really like what we're seeing from Kibrian Hayes right now.
Starting point is 00:24:20 Yeah, his batting average entering Tuesday was 327. You mentioned the XBA was exactly 327. His slugging percentage, 423, his X-Lug is 508. So hopefully more extra base hits coming for Cabrion Hayes. The plate discipline has been great. Eight walks, the 10 strikeouts to this point in the season.
Starting point is 00:24:40 I don't know if he's ever going to be someone who lifts the ball that much. I mean, he's typically hit a lot of ground balls so far. But yeah, so far, so good. Maybe someone that you can buy high, but it's not really a buy high because he doesn't even have a home run. A buy medium on Cabrion Hayes right now. Let's take a look at some Waverwire hitters.
Starting point is 00:24:58 Inhap, 1 for 3, with his second home run of the season. He is batting at 333 early on, 62% rostered. Scott, where would you be looking to add Ian Hap? Based on this roster percentage, it's probably just three outfielder league.
Starting point is 00:25:10 Should he be added in those? I don't have him ranked like a three outfielder league outfielder. As a hot hand play, that's fine. And it's probably a fine line between my 50th outfielder and my 38th outfielder or whatever. So he could enter that discussion But I think there are some pretty obvious downsides to Ian Hap too
Starting point is 00:25:37 And I'm not necessarily expecting a big breakout from him this year All right if you need a corner infielder Dan Vogelbach just keeps hitting two for five with a double an RBI and a run score he's only 18% rostered And I'm just gonna keep mentioning this guy's name until you guys say something anything good about him Eric Hosmer. Two for three with two walks. He hit his first home run of the season. He's now batting 390 with a 971 OPS.
Starting point is 00:26:07 His home run was off of a lefty. He's hitting a ton of line drives. And he's another one where the pull rate is way up for Hosmer this year. Almost 48%. That's 34% for his career. Chris, I don't know. I kind of buy into the narrative too.
Starting point is 00:26:20 He had to hear all the trade rumors in the all season and how Eric Hosmer has done. And I don't know. He's been around for a while. I just see that as something that can motivate someone like Eric Hosmer. If you need a corner infielder, who would you rather have between Hosmer and Dan Vogelbach? Yeah, I mean, look, he's someone who has talked about, like, there have been a lot of people who have told Eric Hosmer like, hey, you should change your swing.
Starting point is 00:26:45 And I remember seeing a quote that was something like, well, why would I? You know, it was kind of like, I've been so successful, you know, throughout my baseball playing life. And maybe this was the first time that, you know, he really saw the, the, not the light at the end of the tunnel. What would be the opposite of the light at the end of the tunnel? The darkness at the end of the tunnel. So light. The problem is he's hitting the ball on the ground basically just as much as he normally does. Not quite.
Starting point is 00:27:20 That was the biggest issue, right? His line drive rate is way up. His fly ball rate is where it normally, or his ground ball rate is. where it normally is. So I don't, I don't know, I don't, I don't think there's too much there, but it's possible, you know, if you dig into the, the splits of the splits. You know, you said he's pulling the ball more, maybe, you know, what you don't want generally is, especially as a left-handed hitter, you don't, you don't want to pull the ball more if you're pulling it on the ground. That's what I was just looking up. And his pull rate on ground ball.
Starting point is 00:27:57 is 52%. That's a bad thing for Eric Cosmer. But his pull rate on flyballs is also... Fly balls and line drives is up. Yes. So that's a good sign. I don't know how much of a good sign it is or whether there's anything sustainable about it. But like, his XBA is 311. His ex slug is 405 entering today.
Starting point is 00:28:24 So that would mean that his X. ex-iso would be 96, which is bad. Which is bad. Very, very well. And his ISO entering Tuesday was 107. So, I mean, it wasn't great to begin with. And we talked about it. He hasn't really barreled up any balls so far.
Starting point is 00:28:41 I think it's just Babbitt, probably. But, you know. And having a disproportionately high line drive rate that is not, it would be among the league leaders if he can sustain this line drive. It's not unthinkable, but it's out of character. And I would bet against him doing that. And yeah, I mean, he's not, even if he is pulling the ball more, he can't be hitting the ball on the ground 55% of the time, probably,
Starting point is 00:29:13 and being a difference maker in fantasy like that. All right. I think we might have said something nice about him in there at some point. We're less dismissive than usual. That's fair. That's fair. I would take Hosmer over Vogelbach for now. Vogelbach is kind of interesting in his own way,
Starting point is 00:29:28 but I've seen Hosmer available in some 15-team Roto leagues with corner infielders. So, I mean, he's clearly an afterthought right now, and he's playing well. So at least in deeper leagues, make sure that Eric Hosmer is rostered. Oduble Herrera is back for the Phillies. He went two for four with a double,
Starting point is 00:29:43 hit his first home run of the season on Tuesday, added three RBI, 7% rostered. He was pretty solid last year in like the most five outfielder league way possible. He had two six six. with 13 homers and six steals. Scott, what format, how deep would you be looking to add someone like Oduble Herrera? It'd have to be pretty deep.
Starting point is 00:30:04 And I am not confident he's going to be playing every day anyway. Probably just against righties. Yeah, he didn't play on Monday against a lefty on the ground. Yeah, pretty low end. All right, let me give you a little bit more of an interesting player here. Santiago Espinall, three for three with a double, a walk, two RBI, and a run scored. He's 14% roster. on CBS he has second base and third base eligibility.
Starting point is 00:30:28 He's hitting a lot of line drives. He hits the ball hard. He's playing every day for the Blue Jays. He's got two homers and two steals early on. Scott, any interest in Santiago Espinal? I was taking a look at him based on this performance. He has stolen two bases. He has stolen two bases already.
Starting point is 00:30:47 He has hit two home runs already. His ex-B-B-A is 307. His ex-slug is 525. So, I mean, the data suggests that he deserves the production he's given so far. I'm skeptical there's much upside here. So it's not a high priority for me. I mean, I understand on a needs basis, okay, he's eligible at second base. Is he eligible at third base, too, which would he be in the bigger need?
Starting point is 00:31:15 Yep. using him and seeing where it goes because what's your alternative but I'm not expecting him to be an impact player this year when all said and done. There's not much in the minor league track record either so that's
Starting point is 00:31:34 it's just it's hard to see much being there. For me it's just getting an everyday player in the Blue Jays lineup especially once to Oscar Hernandez is back. It's pretty valuable so I'm kind of interested. Chelden Noisy is the last name I wanted to mention. Two for four with two steals. Don't really see that as part of his profile,
Starting point is 00:31:53 but hey, two steals are two steals. So pay attention to him. He's second and third base eligibility. The birthday bros, we had a few big birthday celebrations on Tuesday. Joey Wendell, his 32nd birthday, two for three with a sock and a shoe, his first home run and his third steal of the season.
Starting point is 00:32:10 He's making a ton of contact early on, also hitting way too many ground, Balls, 21% rostered is Joey Wendell. Chris, you have any interest in your boy, the Marlin? No, I mean, he 15 teams with, you know, he's eligible at a couple of different spots. So there's, there's some interest there. And I mean, it's hard to see a scenario in a 12 team league where I'd have too much interest in Joey Wendell. But I don't know, I guess if I've been hit hard by injuries in the early going,
Starting point is 00:32:44 or something I could use him. But no, not too interesting. All right. The 30th birthday for Aaron Judge on Tuesday, he went two for four with his fourth home run. And if you were wondering about his expected stats, 326 is the XBA. 697 is the expected slug for Aaron Judge. Better days should be on the way, hopefully.
Starting point is 00:33:06 Let's take a quick break. And when we return, we've got news and notes here on Fantasy Baseball today. The news and notes at Alberto Monisey left Tuesday's game after tweaking his knee on a pickoff attempt, and the initial check, according to Mike Mathini, was, quote, encouraging. But we've seen this,
Starting point is 00:33:24 we've seen this movie many times before with Alberto Mondesies. Yeah, and definitely had that, here we go again, feeling with the Mondesie injury. Like, he's done nothing but steel bases so far, which you can't really hold a lack of hitting against anybody to this point in the season,
Starting point is 00:33:42 I guess. but yeah, hopefully he's okay. I believe, yeah, he has five steals. He was betting 140 entering Tuesday and the stack cast page filled with a ton of blue. He has five steals and he's been on base 11 times. Not great. That's a good rate.
Starting point is 00:34:01 I mean, no, yeah. He's eventually going to have to get on base at least 25% of the time, right? Yeah, but we hope. We hope that's the case for... Not super impressive. far. Bryce Harper played catch on Tuesday for the first time in a week and we'll continue to
Starting point is 00:34:17 exclusively DH until at least May 3rd. He's dealing with that elbow injury. Liam Hendricks is considered... It didn't feel good after playing catch was what was the report that I saw. Yeah. Hey, still stole a base on Tuesday. Liam Hendricks is considered day to day due to back spasms, but hasn't been ruled out from appearing in Tuesday's game.
Starting point is 00:34:37 I don't believe he did that. He reportedly slipped in the dugout between the ninth and 10th innings. on Sunday. Luis Robert is expected back from his groin injury on Wednesday. Mitch Hanager and Paul Seawald are with the Mariners, but haven't been activated off the COVID-I-L yet. Jonathan India was activated from the IL on Tuesday. He was leading off for the Reds.
Starting point is 00:34:58 Chris Bryant scratched from Tuesday's lineup due to a stiff back. Let's watch this. Unfortunate. Chris Bryant seems like he's always dealing with something as well. Brian Reynolds and Cole Tucker were both placed on the COVID-I-L. Eloi Jimenez underwent surgery Tuesday to repair his torn hamstring tendon, expected to miss six to eight weeks. Moved him outside of my top 40 outfielders. Could argue he should be even lower, I guess, based on that timeline.
Starting point is 00:35:24 Jose Altuve took part in all running drills prior to Tuesday's game. He's on the IL with a strained left hamstring. Blake Snell is scheduled to make a minor league rehab appearance at High A on Thursday. He's on the IL with an adductor injury. Chris, if and when Blake Snell returns, who do you think gets the boot from the Padres rotation or do they
Starting point is 00:35:49 just go with a six man? Do they have a six man right now? No, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Nick Martinez has been taking a regular turn, right? So they must have a six man. Not that Chris. No. But I assume Martinez. No, because with Snell on the IL,
Starting point is 00:36:05 they just replaced Snell with Gore. Okay, so they were going to go six man. Okay. So they technically can go six-man rotation when Snell is back. And it's something that might benefit Snell and McKenzie Gore and even Nick Martinez. If anyone's going to go, it's probably going to be Martinez. But we'll see what happens there. To Ask Hernandez felt good after taking batting practice on Tuesday,
Starting point is 00:36:28 saying he no longer feels his oblique strain at all. Josh Bell back in the lineup after tweaking his hamstring this weekend. Lordes Garell out of the lineup on Tuesday due to hamstring tightness. Aaron Hicks placed on the paternity list and we'll miss the next three games. Mike Zanino left Tuesday's game with a left bicep strain, but Kevin Cash said he expects Zanino to avoid the IL.
Starting point is 00:36:51 Reds manager, David Bell, said Hunter Green will start on either Friday or Saturday at the Colorado Rockies. Chris, I'm guessing this is a pretty easy sit in daily leagues, right? Yeah, I generally think even without the velocity drop in his most
Starting point is 00:37:08 recent start, you'd be sitting Hunter Green against the Rockies at course. Yep. Luis Castillo will make two additional minor league rehab starts before joining the Reds rotation. Stephen Kwan was out again on Tuesday with that hamstring injury. He's now missed two games in a row. Brandon Marsh was back in the lineup Tuesday after dealing with an illness and they were going up against a right-handed pitcher, which meant Joe Adele was on the bench with Taylor Ward leading off once again.
Starting point is 00:37:34 Joe Adele's been playing, but there's been some weird things going on. Trout missed a few games here in. there, Taylor Ward didn't start the season. Brandon Marsh was just dealing with an illness. So now that everyone is healthy, it's going to be interesting to see how often Joe Adele gets in the lineup. I, you know, I am skeptical myself as of now. Gary Sanchez could be placed in the aisle with that abdominal injury
Starting point is 00:37:55 if he still doesn't feel all right on Wednesday. We talked a lot recently about the Humidor situation. Ken Rosenthal and Enosaris of the Athletic reported that batted ball distances have decreased most in the 20 stadiums. with the newly installed humidors. This seems to lend itself to your theory, Scott, that offense will go up around baseball as temperatures and humidity rise in the coming months.
Starting point is 00:38:22 And look, I don't want to spend too much time on it. I know you guys were talking in depth before we started, but at least we know what is causing, I guess, the decrease in home runs in offense early on. Well, we don't know exactly. the most obvious thing is actually that there's more universal use of the new baseballs, the deadened baseballs,
Starting point is 00:38:43 which weren't consistently used last year. I seem to remember they were more consistently used last April, specifically, when offense was especially bad. But I could be wrong about that. I couldn't find verification when I went looking for it. But yeah, the humidor adds another layer of uncertainty. and with more research and quotes from smart people, it does seem like Enosaris kind of is suggesting the same thing where,
Starting point is 00:39:19 yeah, if all the balls are being stored at a humidity that is the average humidity. Basically, this is the time of the baseball season when humidity is. at its lowest, right? So the balls are more humid than the air around them right now in general. And as we get into the summer months, the ball's humidity is going to be less than the air around them, at least in certain parts of the country. And that will allow the ball to the impact on the ball to be harder, the ball to carry farther. Hopefully offense goes up in the summer every year, of course, but it could be more drastic,
Starting point is 00:40:01 the increase between April and, say, June this year, than we're used to seeing because of that added effect of changing the humidity of the ball in a way that's not going to match up with the environment around it. One thing I will say is this is the kind of thing that I'm looking forward to people who are smarter than me, writing several thousands of words and putting the other charts and stuff, even beyond, you know, obviously the very good work from, you know, Saras and Ken Rosenthal this time around. There was something from Bruce Arthur and baseball prospectus about the ball having more drag this year.
Starting point is 00:40:38 But the one thing about the environmental factors is, if we can assume stability in the ball itself, like the manufacturing aspects of the ball, the environmental stuff is much easier to model. You know, remember when course field got the humidor, Chase Park got, Chase Field got the Humidor, there were very accurate predictions made based on various models about how this was going to impact production. So I do think in the next few days, hopefully,
Starting point is 00:41:14 you know, maybe next few weeks we'll start to get some more granular data from some of the projection sources about the impacts this could make. And we'll have a, you know, maybe a more holistic view because obviously I think one of the issues with this kind of thing and it's unfortunate that it's been something that we've had to spend
Starting point is 00:41:34 so much time talking about over the past couple of years these changes to the ball and the offensive environment as a result is like there's not a lot of value I don't think and like this guy but not that guy
Starting point is 00:41:46 kind of analysis. I think it's more what it means for the league and what it means for the context and how you build your team within that context and so hopefully we'll have a better sense of that soon.
Starting point is 00:41:56 Yeah. Well, it's like you're building the team when you don't know the context yet. Well, and your team's built. Yeah, right. For better or worse. But what I mean when I say like this guy versus that guy is like, we looked prescient when we said DJ LaMayhew and Kevin Bizio
Starting point is 00:42:16 would be especially affected by a ball that travels less. And now DJ LaMahue is off to an amazing start. And so it's like, right, he's probably just hot. But it's also like, that's why the specific, like, this player will struggle, but this guy will be fine. I don't find there's that much value in that right now until we have that more holistic view. And we can say what the general kind of impact is more likely to be at a top level. So hopefully that's coming soon. Right now, it's just kind of for me, it's a sort of frustrating, like, wait and see.
Starting point is 00:42:55 I think the answer for this season is to go out and buy hitters. right now who are impacting the ball hard but are not seeing the results that they should to this point in the season. And we do that anyway. We bring up a lot of those names regardless, but I think the effect is that as Scott has mentioned, as the
Starting point is 00:43:13 season goes along, we're going to see those guys rise to levels even quicker or further than we've seen in the past, like in terms of... Obviously, hitting the ball harder is better. That goes... That would be true in any offensive environment. But the
Starting point is 00:43:29 more deaden the ball becomes, the more drastic that difference between guys who impact the ball hard and guys who don't is going to be. Yes. Go out and acquire John Carlos Stanton right now because he's still hitting the ball really, really hard. He just has not had great results to this point. Last but not least, speaking of Stanton, the Yankees are cheaters, which we basically already knew. There was some uproar about this letter from Rob Manfred to the Yankees, and it was revealed on Tuesday, but didn't really show any new information to my knowledge. Anyway, the Yankees, the Red Sox and Astros, they're all cheaters. That's the biggest takeaway.
Starting point is 00:44:03 Can you guys just stop complaining about it then? What, what do you mean? Like, can Yankees fans, can Yankees fans just, just, just shut up? I mean, I, I, I never said anything, Chris. I, I, I, but like, you're, this is the royal you. You're standing in for Yankees fans right now. Okay. Just like, we don't care anymore.
Starting point is 00:44:22 All right? You guys cheated. Sorry other teams were better than cheating at cheating on you. Yeah, I mean, that's ultimately what it comes down to. You should have scored more runs in that series. The Astros were better cheaters. I mean, that's honestly what it comes out to. Interesting by high candidates.
Starting point is 00:44:36 I'm going to present three names here. Two of them for interesting reasons. Logan Gilbert had a strong start on Tuesday. Five and two-thirds shutout, seven strikeouts to three walks. He's off to a very good start in general. And I don't even think he's at his best yet. Like, you look at his underlying numbers, and they're really not that impressive.
Starting point is 00:44:53 So if those numbers get better, then there's a chance that Logan Gilbert can be even better. I don't think that's possible. Why are you presuming they're going to get better is the thing? Because. Like the swinging strike rate is average. The strikeout rate is average. The first pitch strike percentage is down.
Starting point is 00:45:09 CSW is down. But they were all higher last year, Scott. So I mean, I would assume that they kind of normalized towards last year. Maybe I shouldn't assume that. But if they do, then I don't know. I think, you know, the results can remain for Logan Gilbert. He's one. San Diego Contra is another one where kind of similar to Logan Gilbert.
Starting point is 00:45:28 I don't think that he's been at his best yet, and he still had three quality starts in a row. So if he gets on track or does what I think he can do under the hood, then I think better days could even be coming for Sandy Alconstra. Chris Bassett is throwing his secondary stuff more. I've mentioned this multiple times now. I think this might be the best version of Chris Bassett that we've seen. It's only been four starts,
Starting point is 00:45:48 but I subscribe to the theory that being around other smart pitchers and great pitchers can make you a better pitcher, and I think we might be seeing that with Chris Bassett. Chris Bassett. So, Scott, how would you rank these three in terms of, like, if you're trying to buy high on them right now? Logan, Gilbert, Sandy Alcansara, Chris Bassett. Alcantra, Bassett, Gilbert. I mean, I don't think you're getting any at a discount, so I'm just going to rank them in the order of how good I think they are. Yeah, buy high, Scott. We're not buying low.
Starting point is 00:46:18 Well, I know. One thing that I think this highlights is, and it's kind of been one of the cases that has been made for Alcantra over the past couple of seasons is just that even like we've been hoping we would see a consistent strikeout rate rise and we've seen it gradually and then there's been fits and starts the second half of last season he had a bigger swinging strike rate rise and a strikeout rate rise but the nice thing about Sandy Alcantara is he doesn't need that to be good you know if he doesn't if he isn't a very very good strikeout pitcher okay maybe the ceiling's a little lower relative to the other high-end pitchers, but it's hard to see a healthy Sandy Alcantra
Starting point is 00:47:03 finishing like 38th at starting pitcher. You know, because like the ERA, the whip, those are going to be good, even if he doesn't get a ton of strikeouts and he's going to pitch deep into games consistently, again, assuming help. And so there are more avenues to him being very good than there are very bad, I think is the way I would put it. And so that, That's why, like, you're not buying him at a discount right now, but I'm not, nothing, none of the underlying stuff not being there, the strikeout rate, the swing, strike rate, et cetera. None of that is reason for me to be concerned, because I think Sandy Alcounter can still
Starting point is 00:47:41 be very good. Whereas with Logan Gilbert, we don't know yet. You know, we all like him. We all like the talent, but he wasn't great last season. And so, you know, I'm less likely to buy. right now on Logan Gilbert, then I would be on Sandy Alcantra, just because we're still trying to figure out
Starting point is 00:48:02 what kind of pitcher he is and what he looks like when he doesn't have his best stuff, how many avenues he has to success. So, you know, there's just more uncertainty there. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, I think there might be savvy fantasy players out there that will see these underlying numbers and think, well, let me try and cash in now
Starting point is 00:48:22 while I can. And I'd still be looking to buy all three if I can. Again, that's Sandy. Logan Gilbert and Chris Bassett. The dropometer. Let's quickly run through some of these names. Hermann Marquez has now allowed seven plus hits and four earned runs in three
Starting point is 00:48:36 straight starts. Chris, 74% rostered is Hermann Marquez. What is the dropometer? And let's kind of calibrate this. 10 is absolute must drop in any format. One is new. I'm definitely holding this player no matter what. I would say probably
Starting point is 00:48:52 five and a half. I think he's definitely dropable. but five and a half is the average of one and ten. So that's where I'm going. Okay. Would you drop him? These are a few of the most added. I think at this point,
Starting point is 00:49:10 Armand Marquez is who he is. And there's not really like, there's not a lot that's going to change my opinion of him one way or the other. And so I think he's a frustrating player who's useful to have a round. But I didn't start him this week in the league. where I have him, which I believe is a 12 team, uh, roto league.
Starting point is 00:49:30 I'm generally not going to start him when he's at home. I know the splits have been inconsistent year over year, but generally speaking, I just think you're better off using him in good matchups. And yeah, so he's dropable. Yeah. If you,
Starting point is 00:49:43 if you, if there's someone you want to add. I think if you're, if you're not using him in a two start week, today was on the road against Philly. His next start is at home. He probably doesn't need to be rostered. And he's 74% rostered.
Starting point is 00:49:55 So that's why, that's why I bring it up. it's got not the best results for Josiah Gray, but still had 10 strikeouts. So this one's kind of a weird one. It's just, I think that there's good stuff here, but it's just so hard to trust Josiah Gray because he walks so many, four and a half walks per nine, and his fly ball rate is 48%. He's 79% roster right now, the dropometer on Josiah Gray. Yeah, you definitely see the potential, but still a little rough around the edges.
Starting point is 00:50:21 I'll put it at four. I'd rather not drop them, but he's not. I'm not going to be super protective of him if there's somebody I'd like more. I like Josiah Gray. He's what Shane Bieber would look like if Shane Bieber had 40 grade command instead of, you know,
Starting point is 00:50:38 60 or whatever it would be. Yeah. 80. Makes sense. Tristan McKenzie was Matt at the Angels on Tuesday. Five and two thirds. Seven hits, four runs,
Starting point is 00:50:49 six strikeouts to zero walks. 84% rostered is Tristan McKenzie. Chris, where is he on the dropometer? probably like a four. I would prefer not to drop him, but there's so many pitchers who are pitching well right now that if you've got a guy who's just okay, who's just pitching okay right now,
Starting point is 00:51:09 yeah, I think it's worth considering. But like, I think I would hang on to him in most 12-team Roto leagues. All right. Mitch Keller was likely picked up for a lot of two-star weeks. He's 36% rostered. Four and two-thirds, four runs allowed, only one strikeout up against the Brewers.
Starting point is 00:51:25 He gave up a two-run homer to Willie Adomis in the first inning. Then he really settled down. And then his final ending of work, he kind of imploded once again. Scott, where are you at on Mitch Keller, drop-home meter? Eight. Yeah, I was going to say eight, actually. Yeah. I have a feeling this isn't the last time we've waffled on Mitch Keller.
Starting point is 00:51:46 But the fact is, three of his first four starts have been bad. He threw his fastball 68% of the time last time and got good results. it was back to like 50% in this start. And by the way, the velocity was down like a mile per hour. So if he's not going to be able to hold that velocity, it's, you know, one start being down a mile per hour. It doesn't say that. But I saw nothing but bad signs from Keller in this start.
Starting point is 00:52:11 The one thing that does give me pause is his quality of contact metrics are quite good right now in a way that's never been true in his career. He's always gotten hit pretty hard. So that is the one thing. like maybe the added velocity is helping him with, but I just, it feels like, it feels like Nick Povetta and, uh,
Starting point is 00:52:34 I'm sure there are other versions of this where it just like, I, I feel like at some point like it's just the pitching part of it isn't there. You know, like he's like that, that thrower versus pitcher dichotomy. I feel like Mitch Keller is, is very much in that camp.
Starting point is 00:52:53 and I don't know how high the upside is to keep chasing, you know? The control is what stood out for me in this one too. It's his one good start this year, he didn't walk anyone, and in this start he walked two. His first two bad starts, he walked a good amount as well. Yeah, well, he talked about continuing to go heavy with the fastball after that last start.
Starting point is 00:53:16 Like, he seemed to recognize that was a winning formula because it's the pitch he can locate best, and it's the pitch that batters have the hardest time hitting. I don't know why he went away from that. Chris, are you dropping any of the Util-only bets right now? We've been getting a lot of questions. Fran Mil Reyes 0 for 3 with three more strikeouts. On Tuesday, he's batting 164.
Starting point is 00:53:36 Nelson Cruz went 1 for 4. He's betting 174 early on. Would you be dropping either of these, Reyes or Nelson Cruz? It's really hard to have a guy who's utility only and who isn't hitting in your lineup. But I'm not particularly inclined to drop them based on what we've seen so far if I was the guy who drafted them. I'm writing it out.
Starting point is 00:54:00 Like Nelson Cruz's quality of contact, underlying numbers are still really good. Maybe not quite as good as they've been in the past, but his expected Wobus 362 is actual Wobus 240. His strikeout rate is actually down to 19%. He's still hitting the ball hard. I don't see much reason to think that Nelson Cruz has just lost. All right.
Starting point is 00:54:21 friend of Reyes. Someone in the YouTube chat asked beforehand, would you drop him in a points league? And it's, I mean, in a format like that, it's a little bit tougher because he's just striking out so much and he's not doing anything. So, I, that's, if I was going to comment, and I was trying to keep the show moving, but what I would say is I might drop Reyes in a points league. Yeah, that's it. That's fine. All right. Three waiver-wire pitchers who might be available. Scott, do you have any interest in these? Zach Eflin, he's now allowed two earned runs or less in three or four starts.
Starting point is 00:54:51 Daniel Lynch, back-to-back, scoreless outings, and then Chris Paddock put together his best start of the year, five and two-thirds, one run, six strikeouts. Any interest in those three? Paddock's probably the most interesting, just given his history and the fact that the underlying numbers, you know, they really haven't changed that much from his rookie season. So I don't see big changes in the underlying stats now either,
Starting point is 00:55:13 but maybe the changes he needs to make are less perceptible than that. Not saying I'm rushing to add him. Lynch obviously has ups and he. as well, but his fly ball rate's really high. So I'm not sure he's going to have as much success when the weather warms up. Quick thought on each of these. Kevin Gosman now has eight plus strikeouts in three straight starts. Chris, I don't know if there's anything else to add outside of Kevin Gosman's like a top of five to seven pitcher right now.
Starting point is 00:55:38 His slider has been really, really good this season. Yeah, he's a top 10 pitcher right now for sure. Yep. Brandon Woodruff couldn't get through five innings against a Brian Reynolds list lineup on Tuesday. It's been a weird start, Scott, for Brandon Woodruff. Two strong starts, two subpar starts. Anything that actually were you here? You got a ton of whiffs in this start. I think he's fine. Just one of those days. All right. Joe Musgrove, a solid start, some rough defense behind him. He gave up five runs.
Starting point is 00:56:08 Only two of those were earned. Fastball v. low down a little bit. But the control has been amazing. Chris, anything on Joe Musgrove? Defense was bad in Major League Baseball today. Yes, it was. There were like 14 or 15 unearned runs across baseball, which is a really high number. Seven of them were on Josh Fleming's start for Tampa Bay. But yeah, no, I think he's been pretty impressive. Not great, but, you know, not like, not as good as he was last April. I don't think he's going to be that guy, but there's certainly no concerns. Max Reed, back-to-back quality starts. Scott, I think I would put Max Fried in the by-high conversation if you can do that right now. Velocity is up.
Starting point is 00:56:49 He's getting more chases than ever before. I'm interested. Yeah, sure. Luis Severino had a no-hitter entering the sixth inning against the Orioles. He wound up going six-plus, gave up four earned runs, five strikeouts. Chris, this was kind of a mixed bag. He threw a slider more in this start than all season, which is encouraging. But his fastball velocity was also down over two miles per hour.
Starting point is 00:57:14 What do you think about Severino's start? The velocity is going to be worth keeping an eye on. And, you know, if the Yankees seem concerned, then we'll keep an eye on it. But other than that, I think it's fine. I think he's off to a really interesting start. And the increased change-up usage especially could potentially be a really big sign for him moving forward. So I'm still pretty optimistic. Carlos Rodon was awesome.
Starting point is 00:57:37 Once again, six innings, one run, nine strikeouts at two walks. He had 15 swinging strikes. Scott, I kind of feel like Rodon is just in that Kevin Gosman category. top 10 starting pitcher, lock it in. Just stay healthy, please. Honestly, if I could presume they'll be healthy
Starting point is 00:57:57 and making six, seven inning starts all season long, I think it would be between Rodon and Corbyn Burns, who's my number one pitcher. I think they're the two that just in terms of pure ability with DeGrom not available, they stand out above everyone else.
Starting point is 00:58:16 That's hard to argue I mean you've laid it out before the season too Rodon was awesome when he pitched last year and so far Velocity has been there and the Giants do a great job so please just stay healthy Carl Sorodon. The call to the bullpen Kenley Jansen pitched a clean ninth for his
Starting point is 00:58:32 fifth save for the Mariners Andrus Munoz pitched the ninth inning with a four run lead. He allowed a walk and a hit. He struck out the side he's 19% rostered. We'll be interested to see what happens when Paul Seewald is back and ready to go. Anthony Bender pitched a clean ninth for his third save. He was dealing with a hip injury,
Starting point is 00:58:51 but he was back and he looked okay. Emilio Paghan entered in the eighth inning for the twins with runners on first and second. In a three-one game, he proceeded to give up a three-run homer to Javier Baez. And then on the other side for the Tigers, Gregory Soto comes in for the save in a one-run game. He gives up two walks, and they lose the game on an RBI single with an error. I didn't see this, but I got an update that it was some kind of crazy ending to that game. So did you see it, Chris? I feel like you were talking about it before. Yeah, it was, uh, there, there was definitely some, some yakety sacks, uh, music playing
Starting point is 00:59:29 on that one. I can't, I can't remember the details well enough to describe it, but I feel like there were two errors at least, including the catcher throwing the ball into the outfield to let the final, uh, two runs score. So, it was, it was bad. You know what else was bad? The Red Sox bullpen. usage. Once again, Hansel Robles pitched in the eighth inning to face the heart of the lineup,
Starting point is 00:59:49 two, three and four, with a three-run lead. He did give up four hard hit balls to the four batters that he faced, so not great anyway. But Jake Deekman entered in the ninth. He gave up three hits, three runs to tie the game. Matt Barnes pitched in the 10th inning. Obviously, you got the ghost runner on second. He walks the bases loaded. They lose the game on a sacrifice fly. The Red Sox have to do something eventually. They are a prime candidate to trade for a reliever. I don't know who that's going to be. Or just give Hansel Robles a chance because he's been their best
Starting point is 01:00:21 reliever and I don't know. They're just not giving him a safe on the chance. I mean, Alex Cora's been talking up Matt Barnes but the velocity's still not back and the usage would suggest he's not as close to regaining that role as Alex Quora has been saying. So I've been
Starting point is 01:00:36 I've written a bullpen report every week, every Monday, actually and I've been for the past couple weeks putting Hansel Robles as the top guy, even though he has just, I believe, just the one save so far. Yeah. He's been their highest leverage reliever technically, but
Starting point is 01:00:53 just not really any saves. What's up, Chris? On the other side of that game, Jordan Romano's velocity was up. There had been some concerning signs about that, but he hit 99 and average 97.2 with his fastball pretty close to where he was last season.
Starting point is 01:01:09 So that's a good sign. All right, Edwin Diaz, walked one, but picked up his third save, and I saw Rysselae-Glasius struck out two for his fourth save of the season. What happened in the Diamondbacks game? They won five to three. Mark Malanson, a clean ninth inning for his third save of the season. To stream or not to stream, let's start with Wednesday.
Starting point is 01:01:31 Aaron Ashby at the Pirates, Eric Fetty versus the Marlins, Michael Panetta at the twins, Christian Javier at the Rangers, Paul Blackburn at the Giants. I think maybe Javier's who I'd look to there but I'd be surprised if he went five innings I'm really interested in what Paul Blackburn's doing so far but not enough to start him versus the Giants
Starting point is 01:01:57 I think I'm good with Ashby I don't know if he'll give you five endings either but at the Pirates I'm interested to see what he does in that start I think Javier and Ashby are probably the top two for me on Thursday we have Bruce Zimmerman at the Yankees, Jameson-Tayone versus the Orioles, Nick Martinez at the Reds,
Starting point is 01:02:15 Chris Flexson at the Rays, Bailey Ober versus the Tigers, Brad Keller at the White Sox, Garrett Whitlock at the Blue Jays, and Dakota Hudson versus the Diamondbacks. It's a pretty good group. Yeah, I like this group more. I'd go Bailey Ober, 1, Jameson,
Starting point is 01:02:31 to Dakota Hudson 3. We're going to wrap there. For Scott, Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today. We'll be back to get tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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