Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Arenado reportedly traded to St. Louis; Rosario to Cleveland - Emergency Podcast (1/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 30, 2021

Nolan Arenado has reportedly been dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Austin Gomber, two prospects, and potentially more. How will Arenado perform outside of Coors Field? Do you drop Arenado behind Rafael Devers now? ... Should we downgrade Trevor Story (9:15)? Which Rockies will earn more playing time without Arenado? ... Should we upgrade Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Dylan Carlson (12:30)? Eddie Rosario also signed a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians (14:12). What does this do for his Fantasy value and does it make us feel better about Jose Ramirez?  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

We mentioned the stove was hot on Thursday's podcast, but things are really picking up. Welcome to an emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today. recording late Friday night, January 29th, Frank Stamphle and Scott White here to talk Aronado. Nolan Aronado reportedly to the Cardinals and to a lesser extent, Eddie Rosario signing with Cleveland. All right, so here's a deal. The Cardinals and Rockies have agreed to a deal that would send Aronado to St. Louis, what's rumored to be for pitcher Austin Gomber and at least two prospects were named outfielder John Torres. Not sure if I'm saying his name right, but top 10 in the. Cardinals organization, and then a first baseman,

Lucan Baker, who was a top 30 prospect for the Cardinals as well. Again, this trade is not officially yet because there's lots of money changing hands. Plus, Aronado has a no trade clause that he needs to sign off on. So if you're listening to this over the weekend at any point, Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, Sunday, whenever, things may have changed. But this is obviously a huge trade, so we just wanted to give you our thoughts on it in case it actually does go through.

So, Scott, the biggest question that will be on everybody's mind is, how will Nolan Aronado perform outside of Cors Field? What are we doing with Nolan Aronado? How far would he drop down if this trade actually does go through? So his value is already at, I won't say, an all-time low, but the lowest it's been in a long time, right? Typically going in the third round when he's been a lock in the first round for a long time, a long time. one of the steadiest performers in fantasy baseball.

Now, the reason he was going, he had dropped to that point in the third round is because, well, he had a down year. But, you know, all the usual small sample size caveat supply, he was dealing with a shoulder issue, I believe it was for much of the year. So, you know, I was seeing him as a good value in the third round.

Now that he won't be calling, calling Colorado home, at least it's looking that way. Well, I think the first place you look is the home away splits, right? For his career, he's been a 322 hitter with a 985 OPS at home. That sounds like, you know, really good version of Aeronauter, right? On the road, 263 with a 793 OPS. So what would that be? That would be like, I don't know, what J.D. Davis was last year.

it would definitely not be an early rounds player. But of course, it's not as simple as just Nolan Aeronado is now who he's always been on the road because there's something that happens with Rocky's hitters, like a come-down effect when they leave course field. And of course, it's not reasonable to expect player stats to be even home in a way. way. That's just not, it's not a super common thing no matter where the player's playing.

You know, we have Matt Holliday we can look to as an example who it seemed like he was just going to, if you looked at his road stats when he left Colorado, it seemed like he'd be a dud. And he wasn't. He went to the Cardinals, as a matter of fact, with a layover in Oakland first, not very long there. And he was still a stud with the Cardinals. He wasn't who he was with the Rockies, but he was still a stud. It was more like a second, third, fourth round type as opposed to a first round type. So maybe that's what we're looking at with Aeronado. That's probably what I'd say, if not for the fact that we had already downgraded Aeronado and he dealt with that shoulder injury last year.

And there are already questions there before this trade even happens. So I know that's a rambling answer without a clear conclusion. But I think the long and short of it is, I'm not that likely to draft Aeronado just because it's too much uncertainty for what's going to be still, I'm pretty confident

he's still going to be an early round pick. I will say regarding Aeronado, I think people were already baking the possibility of him being traded into his draft price. I think that along with the shoulder injury that he suffered from last year, which hurt the numbers, as you mentioned.

Those were the reasons why we were seeing Aronado consistently being drafted. in the third round, at least of 12 team leagues. The ADP right now, I believe, is 29. Yes, 29 overall, according to fantasy pros. And you referenced Matt Holiday. While he was still in his prime, I looked this up just before we started here. The first four seasons he was with the Cardinals,

he batted 301 with the team with an 897 OPS. That's still a really, really damn good player. DJ LaMayhew, we could look at what he's done, obviously going from one great hitters park in Corse Field to another great hitters park in Yankee Stadium, but since he's joined the Yankees, a 335 batting average and a 920 OPS. The point of the matter is, Aronado is still a really, really good player. So I think that we're going to see the numbers drop. Is he going to be a near 900 OPS bat?

Maybe not, but hitters typically do play better at home versus the road, no matter what team you look at. Obviously, it's exorbitant when it comes to the Rockies players. But I think Aronado probably settles in somewhere as like an 850. 860 OPS bat, which is still really good. So Scott, I'll just ask you regarding the third base position, how far at all, are you going to drop Nolan Aronado? If this trade actually does go through, he's the fourth third baseman off the board,

mentioned the ADP at 29. Would you drop him behind Rendon? And I think you already had him behind Bregman. Would you drop him behind Devers? Are we going that far? Devers' ADP is at 42. So are we thinking that range for, for Nolan Aeronado.

I think I already had Aeronado behind Oh, you know what? I have my points league rankings opened up here. Okay, so yeah, I think it's pretty easy to drop Aeronado behind Rendon regardless of format because I had them virtually even anyway. Agreed. Yeah, Devers is the question. And I feel more secure with Devers right now

than I do with Aeronado personally. There's a big drop-off after-de-de-de-es. Devers, you know, I actually had Devers in kind of a tier unto himself after Aeronado, Breggman, and Rendon. But I think the bigger drop-off is after Devers, because I go from Devers and then in terms of, in terms of a salary cap value. Let me pull it up in five-by-five leagues. In terms of that, okay, so yeah, Devers, I have a 24 and then cap-and- Biggio at 17. So a big dip there. And I feel like that is the more appropriate place to slot Aeronado, where I'm honestly

going to feel comfortable drafting him. It would be after Devers. It wouldn't be before him. And maybe I'll end up with my fair share of him because I don't know how the rest of the fantasy playing world is going to react to this. They might they might totally tank him in the rankings, Aeronado. I don't know. I don't know.

but I can feel comfortable saying that once Devers is gone, if Aeronado's still there, that's when I'm going to be excited to swoop in and take him. So we'll see. I mean, it might be a situation like with the example I use a lot as Clayton Kershaw two years ago

where I had him as a bust, but then he suffered like a shoulder thing in spring training that didn't seem too serious, but suddenly nobody would touch him. And so I ended up with a lot of shares of Clayton Kershaw that year. and he ended up having a great year. So I could see that happening too with Aeronado

if this deal just scares everybody way, which has the potential to do. I don't want to overstate how much you should downgrade him. But I'm definitely less comfortable drafting him now than I was with him on the Rockies. Oh, for sure. Yeah, I think you have to unquestionably drop him behind Bregman, drop him behind Anthony Rendon. I think he's right in that same range as Raphael Devers.

I would still take Aeronado ahead of Devers, but I understand why somebody would want Devers over him. He's not changing venues. He's not joining a new team or anything. He has Alex Cora coming back. So there's still a lot to like about Raphael Devers. But I think that's the right range. I think we see Rendon drop at least around.

But if he goes too far, I agree. He could potentially become a discount. According to Bob Nightingale, the Rockies will now turn their attention to locking up Trevor's story long term to an extension, which is exactly what you want to hear if you have him in Dynasty. But Scott, I did just want to ask you for this season

should we be downgrading Trevor's story at all just because they're likely will be less counting stats. He had just 28 RBI in 59 games last season in 2020. That is a 71 RBI pace over 150 games. You currently have story as your number nine player in Roto. Would you downgrade him at all? I would not. No. I mean, he seems of the stature that I'm not.

not really that concerned with his supporting cast. Now, I mean, if they don't lock him up to a long-term deal, do the Rockies and then shut Trevor Story, and does he wind up leaving Colorado? Because I think I'd actually worry about him more, even more than Aeronado away from Coors Field. Maybe not. You have to look at that more.

But, yeah, no, I'm not downgrading Trevor's story because of the Aeronado move. That's the end of the Senate. I didn't. I couldn't know if that was the end of sense. I'll just ask, how does this affect the, rest of the Rockies, the biggest winners. Scott, Scott, I'm doing it. If you're watching on video, I'm doing a little arm nudge thing. Garrett Hampson, is he back in the mix? There's Hampson,

there's Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rogers. There were three names that stood out to me that potentially see an upgrade here in value with Aeronado being traded. Yeah. Brendan Rogers, I think, is probably the one they're going to be most anxious to get in the lineup, who wasn't already poised to get a lot of the bats. Like Hampson was going to get at bats. It may not have been, an everyday role, it may not have been a fixed position, but he was going to get starts all over the place and play a lot.

So I don't know that, I think they prefer to keep him in that super utility role, actually. But now you look at it and, okay, so you slot Rogers at third base, I guess. McMahon seems like a first base. I don't know, they have Josh Fuentes there, but he doesn't seem like somebody

they really need to give regular bats to. So McMahon at first, Rogers' third story is short. Well, maybe Hampson does end up getting most of the starts at second base. Is there anybody I'm missing? You know, McMahon could obviously still play second base if they wanted to give Ian Desmond time. Or maybe they are more interested in Josh Fuentes than I think they should be. But I think no matter how it ends up playing out, who ends up playing where, it's good news for Hampson.

and it might be really good news for Brendan Rogers. Yeah, Rogers was the one that really stood out to me. So if anyone's doing early drafts, I know his ADP is basically non-existent. I mean, you can get him very late-dress. He might be the perfect example of a post-type sleeper, the quintessential post-type sleeper. And that's the word I was looking for.

Yeah. Yeah, Brendan Rogers, former first-round pick, the ADP right now, 490.5 has dealt with a lot of injuries the past couple of seasons. hasn't really been given a fair opportunity with the Rockies yet, but maybe they're turning in that direction with this trade of reported trade of Nolan Aronado. On the Cardinal's side of things, it seems like Matt Carpenter would likely head to the bench

and value up for Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeYoung, Dylan Carlson. What do you think about that, Scott? Yeah, that lineup is looking pretty good all of a sudden, right? Nolan Aronado, a perennial MVP candidate will help. Yeah. Yeah, well. Yeah. We don't know how close he'll be to being Nolan Aronado, but he should definitely be an upgrade from what they had there with Matt Carpenter.

Yeah, there's really not a place for Matt Carpenter, right? Are they going to try him again at second base? There's nowhere for Matt Carpenter to play. They don't have the DH in the NL this year. As of now, that could change. But I think if there were a DH, it's probably Carpenter. But without one, he's probably squeezed. I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the DH and the NL at this point.

So, yeah, I think. And look, Carpenter's not, nobody was really targeting Carpenter is asleep or anything this year. I think we all saw the direction this was going, but it appears to be there now. It appears to be there now. I don't know. Maybe they'll open the door to play some second again. Tommy Edmund, I feel like, would get the majority of the starts there. Colton Wong's out of the picture.

So, yeah, it's, I think. I think the biggest impact on the Cardinals lineup is just Matt Carpenter is Dunzo. Yeah, Tommy Edmund is a name that we should probably talk more about over the next couple of weeks. Because if he's leading off for this lineup with De Jong, Goldschmidt, Aeronado, and Dylan Carlson potentially behind him, could score a lot of runs and, of course, Stelia double-digit bags as well. To a much lesser extent, Eddie Rosario signs with Cleveland on a one-year, $8 million deal. immediately helps the lineup that was desperate in need of it. Remains in the American League Central as well,

so he's familiar with a lot of the pitchers there. 96 home runs since the start of 2017 for Rosario. 16th among outfielders during that span. He finished as the 14th best outfielder in Roto in 2019, the 19th best outfielder in head-to-head points leagues in that year. He's better in Roto because he doesn't walk very much. Again, this is Eddie Rosario. But what do you think about this move, Scott, for Rosario joining Cleveland?

And does it make you feel any better about Jose Ramirez? Yeah, I mean, I wasn't really worried about Jose Ramirez, but obviously having a second bat that can be counted upon in that lineup helps. And steady, well, steady Eddie, I guess is what, he's been very steady. He actually has. He is a fitting name. You know, batting average is going to be there. You know, the power is going to be in between 20.

30 home runs, probably over a full season, you know, not a high on base guy, but a really solid offensive player. And I was actually looking at his ballpark breakdown over his career. There are three parks where he has a career OPS over 1,000. One of those parks, he only has 11 at bats. One of those parks, he only has 24,

bats. In one of those parks, he has 170 at bats, and that park is progressive field, which he will now be calling home. 353 batting average, 11 home runs, 1031 OPS there for Eddie Rosario and his career.

And you know what's especially interesting about that? Scott is that he was likely going up against some of the best pitchers in the league, right? Because that means he was going up against Kluber and Beber. And a lot of those, I mean, Cleveland always has a good rotation, so. That's a good stat.

It's interesting. It is interesting. Now, I guess if we're saying it's not as simple as applying Nolan Aeronado's road stats in his move to St. Louis, obviously, Eddie Rosari's not going to be a 353 hitter with a 1031 OPS. But it's not going to hurt him that venue change is my point, I guess. And I think now that we know what he's calling home, we're going to see his draft stock. rise probably should be right on the border of a top 30 outfielder. So the ADP potentially rising right now, it is 110 for one Eddie Rosario going just ahead of him is John Carlo Stanton, Scott. Stanton or Rosario?

Well, Stanton, but you know, there may, Stanton may be, Stanton may get squeezed because of a DH-only status there. Yeah, I mean, all things being equal Stanton. How about Rosario versus Jeff McNeil? Well, if we're taking position context out of it, probably Rosario. But, you know, you might need a second basement more. Yeah, I think it probably comes down to what you need at that point in the draft. If you want batting average and about 20 home runs, I think McNeil is your guy.

If you need like a 260, 270 guy with 25 to 30, that's probably... Well, no, I give Eddie Rosario a better batting average than that. Yeah, he's probably close to like two. 7280, right? Yeah, well, his lowest, throwing last year out, since it was obviously a weird season. He was a 284 hitter from his last three full seasons Eddie Rosario, 284.

All right, that is pretty, pretty good. One more name going about 15 picks ahead of him right now. How about Rosario versus Lordes Gereal? Ooh, I think Rosario. Hmm, man, I like Gereal, man. He'll steal a few bags as well, so consider that. But it's close. Yeah, Rosario's going to move up.

Let me make sure I'm not totally contradicting my rankings here before. Okay, so I got Guerrille 27th in Roto. I got Rosario 33rd. So I don't know. It's close. It's close. Not wanting to completely redo my rankings based on a knee-jerk response. to your question on this podcast, I will say, Gurriel.

Fair enough. All right. So there you have it. Rosario stock up, heading to the Cleveland Indians and Nolan Aaron Nato stock down, reportedly being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today. Have a fantastic weekend. Bye-bye.