Fantasy Baseball Today - Arizona Fall League Recap! Top Prospects & Dynasty Buy or Sell w/ The Welsh (12/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 14, 2021

We're talkin' prospects! That means Chris Welsh aka The Welsh is joining us (2:20). ... Before we get into the Arizona Fall League standouts, remember to take these stats with a grain of salt (8:22). ... Nelson Velazquez, outfield prospect with the Cubs, was named AFL MVP (12:30). ... Owen White, starting pitcher with the Texas Rangers, was named the Pitcher of the Year (16:48). ... Can Juan Yepez be the Cardinals' DH in 2022 (20:15)? ... The Welsh is very high on Bryson Stott (26:40)! Stott or the 2021 MLB Draft shortstops? ... Robert Hassell vs. Alek Thomas vs. Josh Lowe (42:00). ... Dustin Harris vs. Vinnie Pasquantino (45:30). ... Let's wrap up with Dynasty Buy or Sell (54:10)!  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Center Field. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. It's been almost two months since we've talked about prospects, which is just way too long. Let's be honest. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, December 14th. Frank Stample, joined as always by Scottie Doves, Scott White, who is out there just ranking all of the prospects right now by position. You can find those on the website, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Scottie, how is that going for you? It's almost done.

It's almost done. My long off-season prospect slog is nearing a close. I have 18 more pitchers, 19 more pitchers to write about for my top 30 pitching prospects, which was easier to narrow down this year than it usually is. Like, I feel like 30 pitching prospects normally just scratching the surface of what that position has to offer. But, boy, it's gotten to be really hard to evaluate minor league pitchers to the point that, you know, I don't even know that I can confidently call 30 pitching prospects prospects, at least as far as our audience is concerned. Is McKenzie Gore on the list?

Who knows? He's on the list. He's on the list. There are a few holdovers like that that, like Nate Pearson, and I'm sure we'll talk about these guys on this show. Nate Pearson, McKenzie Gore, Sixto Sanchez to some degree where you can make a case to leave them off. But, you know, then you have to find somebody to replace them. And I'm just not sure. I'm just not sure I'm willing to give up the upside for, I don't know.

Do you know what I'm trying to say, Chris Welsh? We have Chris Welsh here. Who is that? That's Chris Welsh. You know him, aka the Welsh, he is here. You know,

I was going to welcome him at some point. I swear I was going to do it. But anyway, you know him. He's the man behind everything in this league and, of course, host of the Prospect One podcast,

which I think if you're listening to this podcast today, you probably are going to be interested in. What's going on, Welshie? What's up, guys? Yeah, no, Scott was looking for, he was looking for that prospect, you know, line there,

just like, get me back in, roll me back. I know exactly what you were saying. Like, so I just really, my redraft ranks. Obviously I do like tons of prospect stuff. You do top 500 list. I do a dynasty first year player, all those on my Patreon at in this league.com. But I just did my redraft. And for the first year, I usually don't dive too much into this. Scott, you've always done a really good job at it. But I'm starting to dip into the redraft rank perspective of just giving people just what do we

care about this year. That's obviously, you know, what your hyperfocus is got. And you know, like I got like 20 in just as the initial one in December. There's not a lot of pitchers on there because I also struggle at this point in the game of kind of what you're dealing with Scott where like if I'm going to tell people, hey, these are the prospects you should be interested in. I'm thinking about it from a should you be interested in drafting these guys? Because I think you can make a list of here are guys to watch all season long. But from an actual like quantitative like draft list of who are here are guys that you should take chances on,

it's minimal. And it's really minimal on pitching prospects. I don't think it's that deep. You know, there's Baws, there's Joe Ryan. I don't agree. McKenzie Gore is a guy that I would even consider drafting, probably even in a 500 player league in redraft right now. I think there's five maximum five rookie pitchers I could think of

that I would consider drafting in a really, really deep league. Then it gets a lot bigger if you're talking about, let's look into the whole season. You know, McKenzie Gore might be an option. You can get into guys like Hunter Green. Nicola Dola would probably be on the ladder list of, you know, being on the guys I might consider drafting. But it's brutal.

It is brutal to rank pitchers in general, whether it's redraft or prospect. And thinking about guys that are worth early investing on, I don't know what's that deal. I think it ends with Sixto Sanchez and it starts with Shane Boz. And what's in between there, it's not really pretty. Yeah, to be clear, my lists aren't specifically redraft focus. But proximity. Proximity is a big thing. Yeah, I weigh proximity probably heavier than a lot of progress.

list would. But you know, McKenzie Gore, I'm not necessarily thinking this year just the hope that he regains. Or ever. He rediscovers that that ability that made him the consensus number one pitching prospect at this time a year ago. Yeah. I mean, that's going to be a good one to debate into this because, I mean, I was very hyper focused on McKenzie Gore in 2021 and I saw tons of him. I got to see three of his four starts out here in Arizona, not in the AFL, but in rookie league. And then I got to see him in the AFL and he is up and down. I mean, we'll talk about it. He's an enigma, you know, wrapped in a paradox, as I would say, for pitching prospects.

I would say my concerns about evaluating pitching prospects right now is, A, I mean, I go through this list of 30 I'm writing up and how many of them even pitched 100 innings last year? Like, there were so many who threw between 60 and 80 innings, which isn't even really like a starter's workload. So what are you getting from them? Like how much can you trust the numbers they put up? And what role they're going to take? And maybe that's what you're going to be.

Exactly. Yeah. What is a starting pitcher at the major league level anymore? I mean, you got the holdovers, the Max Scherzer's that, you know, we know to invest in in fantasy. But what happens when they all retire? How many difference makers are there going to be in fantasy when that stage of the game comes along? I don't know. And I certainly can't say for people who are just making.

their way up through the miners right now which one of those are going to become that if any of them will so it's kind it's kind of become like catcher in a way like catcher for you know it's it's it's kind of become common knowledge in dynasty leagues you don't invest in catchers because they have a short shelf life they're hard to predict and they often wind up wind up in these timeshare situations behind the plate that really neuters their their ability to impact the fantasy game and we're kind of getting there with pitchers too. I kind of like that idea if you package what you're talking about with pitching into elite pitchers.

So I think that's what you're getting at. When you package like here are the game changing aces and you package those guys into kind of being like catcher, you're not wrong about that because, you know, I would say a majority of the proximity pitchers, you know, whether you're looking at redraft or the guys that are close, you know, close in proximity, they're not elite. There's not of elite guys. I'm not going to put Shane Boz in that category. I'm not going to put Aaron Ashby, even in the short sample size, into like some crazy elite category.

And the top pitching prospects are maybe a little bit of ways. Like, let's, you know, Grayson Rodriguez. I mean, he's elite at the minor league level, but is he next level game changing? I don't know, maybe. So it is very, it's a very, very short list of guys that are even close to that. And the time it's taking for guys to come up and then actually get to elite levels really does kind of throw it into that catcher territory where it's very, you and far between. And you can take that one or two ways. You can covet it or you can not pay the high costs on both sides of it. Some people will covet. Ooh, I have the advantage. You know,

Salvador Perez and Redraft will kind of have that for catchers. Or you can just say, all right, I will let this person. I will let these people jump in on that. And I'm going to get this big clump of good value even later. And I'll take the latter half of a tier. Yeah. And we'll talk about some of those names. McKenzie Gore, Sixtho Sanchez. We have some dynasty buyer sell a little bit later on. I crowdsourced our fantasy baseball. fantasy baseball today. I just combined fantasy and Facebook together. Fantasy Facebook is actually pretty nice. That's a pretty nice segment. Yeah, our FBT Facebook group crowdsourced some some prospects there that people want to hear about. And of course the AFL, last time we had the

Welsh on, we were kind of talking about some players that were performing well at that point in the AFL and it's now over. So we can talk about some of the biggest standouts from the Arizona Full League. And I think that's a good way, a good place to start. Welsh, I listened to the podcast that you did with James Anderson over on the Roto Walsh. our fantasy baseball podcast. And I thought it was very well done. You guys basically recapped all of the AFL. But I thought something that was so interesting

and that people kind of need to keep in mind here is, yes, while it's fun to follow what happened, we have some baseball to follow, some box scores to look at throughout the off season. You don't want to put too much stock into what happened here one way or the other, whether it was a prospect who was awesome at the AFL or maybe a prospect that let us down.

So your general thoughts on just, that whole idea. Yeah, no, I think it's paramount. I think it's so, so key because it's a tough place. Pitching was awful. It was some of the worst pitching I've ever seen in the Arizona Fall League, but also top-end talent was some of the worst that we've ever seen. I think you had a lot of pitchers working on stuff. He had some high in it. Jackson Rutledge is a perfect example with the Nationals. Big six-foot-eight pitcher, big fireballer. Everyone loved him coming out of college. He looked awful. He looked just atrocious. He had one good game, and it was in the championship game and it was a lot because he was also trying to work on his slider. So he couldn't command

his fastball. He's really good deception. But he would try to work his slider in. No one would swing in it because he had no command. Then he'd go back to the fastball that had no spin and dudes were just raking on him. So it inflated offensive stats, bad pitching inflated the offensive stats. And pitchers working on things hurt themselves as well. So overall, you should always be careful about the stat lines. I think there's multiple players that are the exact reason behind it and I think some people could point to me the players that I give passes on one of the guys like Joey Weimer with the Milwaukee Brewers joy Wymer is fun he's super fun he put a big stats older much older prospect put a bigger stats at low levels this year came out to the Arizona fall league

he raked in a very short sample size he's a big body guy he's got a mullet it's a personality people like oh this is so fun Joey Weimer season blah blah blah best brewers prospect is not like his swing is one of the I'm on video gonna show you this for a second. He's like this. He comes here and on the video people, and his hands come out to here. They come out. And how, you know, what am I? Like a foot and a half away. And he's swinging like this. He's like Gary Sheffielding about 18 inches off of the plate. And it's like the bat speed is great and maybe he's gonna be a good prospect.

But when you get to higher levels, you don't think guys are gonna be able to take advantage of your bat being 18 inches out while it's wagling out there. All the bat speed in the world. you're going to have to adjust. So what I'm getting at is like he put up stats that were fun in a short sample size off of a really good season where he was older at lower levels. And it became Joey Weimer season. And I'm just not 100% with that. I'm being careful because he could be really good, but I just think there are some things that I personally saw in person that you're going to maybe get taken advantage of. So those are like some of the things that you're looking for on the same token.

There were some players that I thought had really bad seasons that you're just that you're going to be taken advantage of. showed consistency that met my expectations or further. JJ Blade is a perfect example. I just thought, you know, his approach, his swing, the way he went about at bats, he didn't get, you know, too crazy into strikeouts. It was what you wanted to see on a guy that was highly touted that had a bad season and then fix themselves. So grain of salt with all of it, though people like me and whoever have been out there

or who, even if you just look at stats, you're probably going to find storylines to tell the stories that you want to have. You know, maybe like I'm a little anti-Jewy Weimer if you think he's a top 75 overall prospect where I'm like Bryson Stott season every single day because I love the guy. So you do want to be careful about the major steps that you put into it because it's highlighted. It was on some TV on MLB, you know, 0.15%. You know, like that's about what you should take into this and just look for the the mechanical type of things. Don't just look at the stat line for the AFL. Yeah.

And I think that's why. You are literally the best person to have on here. Well, to talk about these players is because you were there to see what was going on. So let's just jump right in. Nelson Velasquez was the, he was named the MVP of the Arizona Fall League, a 22-year-old outfield prospect with the Chicago Cubs, hit 385 in the NFL, nine homers, 17 walks at 34 strikeouts in 26 games. So still a good amount of strikeouts in that small sample size.

A couple of down seasons in the minors, but he did bounce back this past year. in 2021. He has some power. He has some speed. He strikes out quite a bit. Cut it down as he progressed to AA. So, Walsh, what do you think about Nelson Velazquez? What did you see from him down there in the AFL? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a prime example of this, but maybe on both sides. Okay. So Nelson Velasquez, probably before the AFL was kind of a nothing sandwich to most people. He was really fun when he first came out, big power prospect, who just had poor results over multiple years, never really showed any signs of anything fantastic. This year got better, still young, 22 years old, got up to AA.

He came out here and he absolutely destroyed and owned the league. He had the most homers. He had the highest OPS. I think he either had or was near the top and slugging. I mean, he dominated the MVP award. He hit a very good park. His home park, by the way, he played for the Sloan team and he got to hit at home where he's very, very comfortable and used to that stadium.

No travel. Not that that matters, but just putting in a little context. This is a guy that did not, like JJ Blode A. He didn't come from Florida to come. come over here, get used to what's going on. Nelson Velasquez was home in his home spring stadium. But he's a prime example of because he was that big old nothing sandwich, we should put our eyes back into him because, you know, he was really,

when people made mistakes, he crushed him. But guess what? A lot of mistakes in the AFL. A lot of mistakes. And he took advantage of them like plenty of other guys did not do. The problem is, though, he also led in strikeouts in the league. And he was crazy susceptible to high fastball. and he was swinging through his shoes.

As many highlight homers as you saw, I saw him got absolutely destroyed. One at bat on a high fastball that he chased out of his shoes. Next at bat, the pitcher came in, just low off speed, and he couldn't take advantage of that. So he takes advantage of mistakes. But if you were to look at him winning the MVP and the stats, you might think, oh my God, Nelson Velasquez,

this might be a top 100 prospect that no one knows about. I don't believe so. I think he's super susceptible to the high fastball, to any of the fastball is really. I think he's still learning pitch recognition. He's got good speed. He's fun, but he's not a top 100 prospect to me. And that would be a prime example of like,

AFL watch and be careful. I would not be, I would be the seller on Velasquez if someone wants to really buy in right now. Maybe we'll be wrong. Maybe all these fixes will come in, this confidence will carry over. Because he's a guy that could hit 30 homers if he consistently hits.

I do not believe he will consistently hit. And that's something I saw. And I got some confirmation. A lot of a scouts kind of felt the same way as fun as all the stats were, they're like, he chases, he chases, he swings through his shoes, he's just not going to be able to get to major league pitching. And, you know, okay, guess what?

There wasn't major league pitching in the AFL. Outside of Jordan Hicks, who was there for like two games, and it was awful, there was no major league pitching there. Scotty, Nelson Velasquez played 34 games at AA this past season. So I guess there's a chance if he rakes in 2022, he can make it to the Cubs. I mean, they have other prospects. So I don't think that they're going to rush him or anything.

But do you have anything? on Nelson Velasquez. Well, I ranked 20 outfielders for the site, my top 20 outfield prospects, and I was narrowing down that group of 20 from a group of 29, and Nelson Velasquez wasn't even in the 29. I probably wasn't that far outside of it,

outside of my top 29 outfielders, but yeah, I mean, major plate discipline issues for that guy, and that is, unless it's somebody in the low, minors, you know, you could be a little more forgiving of that than, you know, still having so much development ahead of them. But for a guy who was ended last year at double A, yeah, that's like the worst thing I want to see in a prospect is plate discipline as bad as his. All right. So if you can sell high on one Nelson Velasquez, don't just sell for the sake of selling.

Again, it's if you can get a top 100 prospect for him, then, yeah, something you definitely want to look into doing. Owen White, I guess kind of the counterpart of Nelson Velasquez was named the AFL pitcher of the year, 22-year-old starting pitcher with the Texas Rangers, a 19-1-ERA, 29 strikeouts to 13 walks over 28 and a third.

Andings pitch really has not pitched much in the minors. He was a second round pick back in 2018. He had Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2019, and then of course, there was no minor league season in 2020. Big fastball.

Also has a really, really good curveball, apparently from what I've read. And he was awesome this year in the minors, but he only made eight starts at a ball, at A ball. So it's like, how much do you take away from that? Well, do you have a chance to see Owen White in person? Yeah. Yeah, he pitched in the, if I remember correctly, I think he pitched in the championship game. It was Owen White and Caleb Killian, who by the way, Caleb Killian is a dude. Everyone should be paying attention to.

He had six perfect innings in the championship game. He was the trade piece to the Cubs in, oh man, now I'm forgetting what the trade. It might have been the Bayez trade. I'm forgetting which of the trades it actually was. But yeah, I actually saw Owen White right before the AFL started on the backfields, they were going through it was him and Ricky Vanasco, who were back-to-back pitching just a couple days before the AFL started. And Owen White was definitely impressive. One of the best out there, the curveball is what stood out. He was opening counts with the curveball. He would drop it down to 79, hitting in the 90s on the fastball. So there's a really good discrepancy of velocity between the pitches. He was throwing it for strikes,

which is a big key. And when you find a guy that is as comfortable with the curveball that can start counts with it, you're going to completely throw off the rhythm of hitters. He's just got to stay healthy. He was a highly touted guy coming in, lots of injuries. Obviously, like you mentioned, have kind of harpened his progression. But he's still a ways away because of the minimal innings. I would imagine, there's nothing in this year. I'd even be surprised if it comes in next year.

But they love him. Curveball was fantastic. He was the absolute deserved pitcher. Him or Caleb Killian, to be honest, you would probably have been one or two of the guys that deserve to be pitcher of the year, but Owen White took it really, really good control. I don't think it's incredible stuff, but it's a really good curveball that could stay in the rotation.

All right. Interestingly enough, the Texas Rangers, they have some pitching prospects on the way. I mean, Owen White is a ways away here, but they do have Cole win. Obviously, they use their first round pick on Jack Leiter in this past year's draft. So some pitching prospects on the way in a vacuum. Welsh, who would you rather have in Dynasty, Nelson Velazquez or Owen White? Um, oh, that's good because it's a pitcher. I would say Owen White, I guess in a vacuum.

Uh, I guess I'm tenuous about pitching, but I kind of do love to dip into pitching post 100 because I think there's so many guys. We've done this a million times, but like people get really like stuck on list. They're like, dark card is 79. And it's like, do you realize like guy 51 to like 150? There's like small differences, maybe a couple tiers that involve in there. So, you know, I can be talking about a guy. I think it's in the one. 40s that actually might have, you know, just a small notch different than the guy at 85 or something

like that. So I just, I tend to think there's like a really good tier or clump of pitchers that exist in that that people aren't in on. And those guys jump. You saw that this year. I mean, Shane Baz is kind of one of those guys. Joe Ryan specifically was one of those guys. Aaron Ashby was on nobody's list. So those are the type of guys that you can get in on. Owen White, I think is in that trajectory. I think Owen White has a better chance to be a major leaguer than I think Nelson Velasquez does long term. So I go Owen. All right. Scott. Why don't you start us off with this next prospect who was amazing in the AFL as well. And that's Juan Yuppez of the St. Louis Cardinals, who doesn't really have a true defensive position,

but he plays a little bit everywhere. First base, third base, a little bit of corner outfield. He's 23 years old with the St. Louis Cardinals. Hit 302 with seven homers, eight doubles, 26 RBI in the AFL. Makes a really good amount of contact, double-digit walk rates. You like the plate discipline there. And if the Universal T.H comes to the National League, I think that there's a real chance that he starts the season. with the St. Louis Cardinals.

He played 92 games at AAA already, so I kind of just think he's ready. Where are you at, Scott, on Wanya Pez? Yeah, I mean, given his age, he's going to be 24, or he already is 24, perhaps. I don't have the exact birth date here, but he's right at that age where you expect a player to get called up.

He's already mastered the upper minors. I mean, a big issue for him is that he's positionless, basically. Yeah. Playing time at first base is, is something that is difficult to come by. So, you know, the likelihood of the DH coming to the National League, I think it makes a big difference for somebody like Juan Yippez. But, I mean, in terms of hitting profile, he does look like he could be a thing.

He's made a lot of adjustments in recent years. He's changed to swing. He's learned to make better swing decisions. his physique has changed quite a bit. So he's tapping into his strength more and 27 home runs at 360s this past year. I mean, that's obviously great home run rate.

Yeah, I think he's somebody who wasn't really on my radar in Dynasty Leagues before I did this offseason deep dive into prospects. But I would say Juan Yippez, well, probably he won't make my top 100 list. He wouldn't be far outside of it. All right. Specifically at first base, it's where you have a ranked among his positions.

He is your number seven prospect behind, just behind Vinnie Pasquantino, who we will talk about a little bit later on as well. Welsh, what do you think about Juan Yuppez? What I like about him, what I see in the profile, is makes a lot of contact, hits a lot of fly ball.

So obviously something that can help him with power at the major league level. So what did you see from him down at the AFL? Yeah, he actually had this concerted effort to try to get the ball on the air. You could tell he's just like a smart analytical like locked into his hit tool. I really liked was you saw a concerted effort to have to show and have opposite field power.

Multiple times we would see him, you know, you know, take, guys would be pounding in. They'd come outside and he would sit on a pitch and he would push it and just have like a ground rule double over to the right. He consistently showed that showed really, really big power. Here's my only thing though is I still think I was kind of late on him as well. I kind of fell in love like mids of this past season. I really like the swing. I like the power potential. He played first base exclusively when he was here.

He never played anything else outside of D-Hing, which he did do sometimes. My only thing is, is I kind of feel like his teammate who got some run, Lars Neupbar, who was fantastic when he was out here, Lars was leading off, showed a lot of power, good defender, and just a solid, I mean, you know, how many lead off hitters, you know, growing trees out there that are really good and have power potential. I think Lars is a guy that could potentially push as a fourth outfielder, which could move, one of the outfielers into an occasional DH role. So I think Lars Nupar is more valuable with the hit tool and his defensive prowess, which I think that takes precedent over a guy like Juanio Pes,

because there's no other spot, by the way. You know there's no other spot. I think I pez, honestly, could be a trade candidate, and that would be something to watch. I like him. I like the power. I'm outside my top 100. He's one of the biggest personalities, too. Everyone will love him as soon as you get him in on interviews.

He's high energy. Every fan, he did it every single game I saw. He would go in pound. He'd give the entire crowd a pound right up in the on deck circle talking to kids. I mean, he's a big, big energy guy. He's going to be easy to love and like. I just think it's going to take a tiny bit longer than this year. But to Scott's credit, and it might be about how I label some of my position players on my own ranks.

I have them as my sixth first baseman, but I also don't list Torkelson currently at first because he's been third. So I'm probably right in line with Scott. Yeah, that sounds like it. Yeah, right in line with it. or one first basement. And I might be missing one other first baseman. So I'm either like exactly in the exact same spot as you are or I might be like one below if you add another first basement. Yeah.

Lars Neupar, by the way, more than just an awesome name. He was great in the AFL. As you mentioned, Welsh, 314 batting average, five homers, a 1080 OPS, which was third among the qualified hitters here at the AFL. Yeah, I think it's possible that he could kind of push maybe, I don't know, maybe like Dylan Carlson could DH a little bit, something like that. Yeah, it's really tough with their, with their like, because they just got a bunch of guys. Like Tyler O'Neill just locked in. They really like Bader. But Lars is a guy that I think the value in being able to hit high or think about that, you know, if you have the advent of the DH, you know, having that lead off hit or hitting nine, that's something Newpar would be fantastic at.

So I think it's, I think that will be more hyper focused. Not saying that I pez isn't going to get a shot. His bat will carry him. But unfortunately, Lars isn't just a defender. He's a really good offensive player. And I think I may have said this on the last. podcast. I was told, I don't have a hundred percent fact on this, but I was told that he trademarked his name. So I think I told you guys that trade and trademarked his name for a athletic

energy bar. He did that during the AFL. So look for the Lars newt bar in St. Louis coming soon, probably in 2022, I hope. Wow, that is awesome. I would like him to send me one too. I would like Lars to give me credit for putting that out there. If people get excited, I would like to be sent a Lars Newt bar, please. Yeah, that's a lease he could do, right? Let's talk about one of your favorites. Uh, someone I've heard you rave about, Scott, Scott, what do you want to say? What do you want? He had a new bar.

I just wondered if there were going to be nutes in this nute bar. That seems like a weird ingredient. If there weren't, wouldn't you be disappointed if there wasn't? I don't really know what's in an energy bar. Well, are there, it would be an athletic. No. Well, but that would be the first one. See, there's the market right there.

See, he's already got the market. You don't know if there's nutes in a new, in a energy bar? I don't know. No. Now there is. Yeah. All thanks to Lars. Lars.

We made that a thing. Welsh, one of the prospects I know you like quite a bit who is down at the AFL. Bryson Stott, 24-year-old shortstop prospect with the Philadelphia Phillies. He had 318, two homers, seven doubles, five steals. Definitely can hit for some batting average. Looks like he'll be able to. Some speed, some power. He progressed through three levels this past season in 2021.

Got 10 games in at AAA. About league average strikeouts, walks a ton, hits a lot of line drives as well. He is Scotty's number 13 shortstop prospect on the site right now. Now, what did you see from Bryce Stott? I loved him. In that RotoWire podcast with James Anderson, we did a recap, but before the AFL, we did one where we were talking about all the guys. And I had said on there, you know, I mean, you tout about the things you get right, of course.

I had said, I think Bryce of Stott's the type of guy that could be an MVP out there. And I think the only thing that held him back was a lack of power. He didn't show off a ton of power when he was out there, but he was just crush and doubles. Towards the end, he did lay out just a couple absolute moonshot homers, which I've got one. of them on my Twitter, if people want to see it at is it the Welsh? But I thought, and it's funny, I had, he was my white whale of interviews. I interviewed a bunch of different players. People can hear on Prospect One, Austin Wells, Nick Gonzalez. I'm drawing a blank on some of the other guys I got. But Bryson was like one of my biggest focuses and I just never timed it right to get him.

So I have all like the stats and stuff of him in my head of the things I was going to ask him. And one of the most impressive things, at least I thought, was he improved his batting average at every single level this year. Even if you include the AFL, from A to double to triple to the AFL, his average got better 288 to 301 to 303, and I don't have it in front of me. I think it was

like 309 or 310 he hit in the AFL. 318. He improved his batting average at every single level. He hit hard, hard line drives. He showed out power. He was stealing bases, it seemed like a little bit bigger clip. He also was not fooled. He walked a whole bunch. I thought he was a stud

and I've said this before, so Prospect One listeners will know, but his teammate Logan O'Hoppy, who in his own right was very, very impressive, I had this really funny moment where I was, you know, right in the front of the stadium, you know, in the front row getting film and Bryson's up and there's these gentlemen over here talking and you always hear this AFL, someone will be like, you know, Bryson Stott is 98 on Baseball America's list. And they're rattling off, they're trying to learn about this guy. And Logan is right here, like he's like, you know, two feet from me on the batters box. and all of a sudden he turns around and he goes,

he should be a lot higher than that. And then those guys are like, this baseball player just talked to me and I'm just laughing. I actually have it on film and I haven't released it yet. But it was just a funny moment from a baseball player and a guy who wanted so much to defend his own teammate, he's talking to fans behind him to say, no, Bryson's thought should be way hard.

I am very aggressive. I would bet you I'm probably the highest in the industry. I could be very susceptible to AFL, you know, wooy, wooy, AFL. I get excited, but I think he's a great contact hitter. I fall in love with contact hitters. He's got great tutelage. He's good friends of Bryce Harper.

If you saw the famous picture of Bryce Harper pumping gas in his uniform, that was with Bryson Stott on Bryce and Stott's Instagram. The good friends, good tutelage. He's a Vegas guy, good hit tool, power speed combo. I think he can move to second or third. I like him a lot. I don't know if it'll be impact power, but I really, really think this could be like a 20 plus homer and double digit stolen base guy who hits for good average.

I'm very, very aggressive on Bryson Stott after seeing him and, you know, put all the other factors. Improving your batting average over four different levels on this type of year. I think that's impressive. Not many guys did that. Scotty, what do you think? Ten games at AAA, obviously 24 years old. I think there's a good chance that maybe it's not the first two months of the season. Assuming we have a full season, by the way.

But maybe, you know, like a June, July kind of guy. I think that's possible. Yeah, no, definitely. I expect him to be, Bryson Stott, to be up at some point. uh in 2022 considering he searched through two levels of the philly's minor league system is on the upper level now i mean there's not really much more for him to sort out in the minors he was he was a player i struggled to rank because i feel like i like him more than the consensus too uh but i wanted to be a little cautious with my ranking you know as i said for for nelson velasquez you know i i i hate bad plate discipline for players who in the upper minors, but when a guy, a guy showing good plate discipline like Bryson Stott has done. And in the AFL, it was just ridiculous. He walked 24 times in 26 games.

He's struck out only 14 times compared to those 24 walks. It was against bad pitching. But as Chris covered. I saw a lot of it. I saw a lot of it, though. It was, you're waiting for your pitch. And even if it was bad, there's a lot of, hey, guess what? Nelson Velasquez did not lay off a lot of that bad pitching.

He led the way in the most strikeouts. Stott was able to not do that. So I love seeing that from a minor leaguer, from a minor leaguer who's on the verge of entering the majors. In the recent past, my belief for hitters was that, like, that's the most difficult hurdle to clear. Power, power they can learn on the fly, power they can pick up after they reach the majors. I'm not sure if that's going to hold true in this new era we're entering into with the deadened baseball and the way exit velocity. had a much stronger correlation to power, at least according to my observations.

And there are questions about whether Bryson Stott makes the kind of impact necessary to deliver impactful power at the major league level. So I have him 13th in my shortstop rankings behind guys like Brady House of the Nationals, their first round pick this past year, Khalil Watson of the Marlins, Jordan Lawler, of the Diamondbacks. three first round picks just from this draft class. I have them back to back to back here in my shortstop rankings and then I put

Bryce and stopped behind them. But I could be talked into moving him ahead if you think that's something I should do, Chris. Who are the guys again? The trio of first round short stops from this past year. Brady House of the Nationals, Kalia Watson of the Marlins and Jordan Lawler of the Diamondbacks. I do have, there's a fourth one from that draft class, Marcelo Meyer of the Red Sox,

but he's definitely ahead of those guys. So, okay, so this is what's difficult for me. I'm very, like, macro-focused on prospects. I don't wait, and this is something people I think know about me and should know about me. When I rank, I don't rank heavy on proximity. And there might be something to it. I've kind of talked about this at nauseam now, but I really think, like, proximity is going to be the big hyper-focused,

not just in, like, industry, but it's going to spill over more than it ever has before in for everybody else. And what that's going to do is that's going to create more value into the guys that are closer than it ever has in the past. So you can take advantage of that. So I'm setting this all up to say from a long-term perspective, I have those short stops, those young guys all ahead. Brady House is right on the cusp. But if I were shortening my window, if I only cared, let's just say I was hyper-focused into two years, I would say I'd be comfortable with him over all of them.

Lawler is the one that I think can be the biggest impact and you also have to think in terms of trade value with these guys as well like what type of trade value does a guy like Stott have to what type of trade value does a Marcelo Meyer or Lawler if they start to really pop on those teams specifically Lawler from a stat perspective and Meyer with his team those guys trade value

could be exponentially bigger than Stott and if they work out I think statistically both of those guys could be bigger than Stott but you know what Meyer we might be chasing Meyer to be Stott We might hope and pray that he is that where I think Loller can be a bigger speed guy. So I'm kind of talking through it because I have those guys a little bit head in value. But I will say that they are, he is right there.

And I don't know many people that have, but I got to start inside my top 40 overall. And I am hyper focused into like the younger guys and stuff like that. And I have them as a top 40 prospect. But I have a lot of short stops in there as well. So if that helps people understand. 13th, that shortstop might well end up in my top 40 as well. Exactly. I have him at 12 at shortstop, I think.

So again, you're in the right area. But I've got, like I said, the hyper focus of younger guys. I have Christian Hernandez, who I probably nobody has a head. I have Christian Hernandez inside my top 30 because I think that guy could be a star. I really think he can be a star star type of player. But like, you know, for a lot of dynasty owners, are like, wait a minute. Do I want Stott who could be a good like maybe 2015 guy with good average, maybe 80, 80, that's a decent roto player or head to head player?

Do I want that guy now or I want to wait four years for Christian Hernandez and hopefully he works out? I get that argument. I totally get that argument. But the same argument would have been had about Wanda Franco, you know, four years ago. So you've got to take your stances in places. And that's why I have a stance on Christian Hernandez. But I think there's wiggle room. For me to say I have Stott inside the top 40.

I think there's wiggle room to call him a top 20 if you want to care about the now, if you're a now guy. Because I really do think he's that solid of a player. But I'm acknowledging the high, high upside. of who he could be, that might be dicey. You know, if you trade for him, you're like, oh, man, I, I want 35 homers. I, you know, I want the next, I want Trevor Story with the Rockies. I don't know if you can get to Trevor's story, man, but I do think you're going to get a really solid prospect, which you will find the value on over what you just experienced

with prospects. And it's the same thing I think where sometimes people hyper, um, essentialize Wander Franco because like Wander Franco is great, but I'm not sure if Wander's going to be, you know, Fernando Tatees Jr. So we get a little up on that sometimes, but I'm with Stott. Yeah, I'd be one of the calculations here, too, that I don't think gets talked about is, you know, what we're talking about essentially is we're weighing ultimate ceiling. Sealing versus floor, right? We're weighing the upside of a Christian Hernandez or Jordan Lawler versus the security of a Bryson Stott who is going to deliver something soon when a Jordan Loller.

Christian Hernandez, look, I don't think they'll be nothing, but there's that, there's a higher chance they'll be nothing than there is for Bryson Stott, just because they have so far to go. Yeah, Mike Ton is still in people's heads. And a big part of that calculation is just how deep your league is, right? Like, most of my- Absolutely, good call. Most of my dynasty leagues are 24 teams. They're very deep.

They're deeper than probably what most of the audience listening plays in. And so I can understand selling out harder for upside if you're playing a deeper league than if you just you just need a guy who's going to fill a spot for you. There's almost almost with 100% certainty. We can say Bryson Stott is going to capably fill a spot for you. But is he going to be a top 12 shortstop ever? That's really what it comes down. And I put him in exactly.

It's a really, really great way you said that. I put Stott in that territory where I think he's good enough, where he can be in the tier if you want to take that chance. Where I think some would argue, eh, he's not really in there. Like I'll go upside. I think Stott is good enough where the floor is there. The ceiling is solid that if you don't care about the future upside, you don't want to risk it.

He's one of the guys that I think is a solid bet on if you don't want to play a four-year game. And I wouldn't I wouldn't fault anybody for playing a four-year game. There's risk with Jordan Lawler. There's strikeout risk. There's risk with Marcel Omeyer that it might not be anything solid. Brady House probably not going to play shortstop. There's risk with all the, Khalil Watson. There's risk with all those guys.

Stott might not have that. So that's why he kind of exists in a tier that you could take advantage of. And I think that is kind of part of a broader conversation just about the first year player draft this year, Welsh, where it's just like, there's not like a, I don't know, it's just like not top heavy like it has been in years past, really, right?

Like there's no, I don't know. You tell me, is there really any like star or anyone that you feel great about calling like a future fantasy star in the first year player draft? Um, I mean, I, I know I'm a little bit biased, I really like Jordan Lawler. Jordan Lawler is my number one. Most people, one thing I did, we mentioned in the last episode.

I mean, yeah, sorry, biased because I'm a diamond back span. I suppose. But Jordan Lawler was seen for a long time as the number one prospect. We talked about it in the last episode I did with you guys. One of the things I've done and you guys both took part in and Frank was on the episode this week to break it down, I do prospect ADP. So I created a 280P system that's on my Patreon. And Marcella Meyer was the number one first year player guy.

And it was almost unanimous. almost I think three of the four leagues he was the number one ironically in Frankenice league that we drafted together Lawler was number one but that shows you kind of where that's at I don't know this is not the was it 2019 Bobby Witt Andrew Vaughn Adley Rutchman year where it was like holy cow buy whatever you got to do get inside the top five buy one of those guys and you know take it to the bank because you also had first year player from an international perspective on and Dominguez. This is not that. I think there's a lot of risk, but I think at the end of the day,

we could look back on this and we could see tons of value, but am I trading up? Probably not. I mean, me, maybe, because I like Loller, but am I trading up and selling the house? No, I don't think so. I think there's a small difference between the top four short stops. Lighter, personally, I really, really like. I think he's in that upper echelot already tier of pitchers. So I would just kind of let the draft come to me. He's number four in my, my pitcher prospect rankings here. I think that's what I have, too. I'm not looking at it, but I'm pretty sure I have him number four in my first year player. But I wouldn't argue if you wanted him number one.

If you're in a points base league, I mean, frankly, you know, in the, I play in the league. Scott was talking about as does Frank. I think there's an argument for Laller to go, for a lighter to go number one. I hope he doesn't because I think I have the second or third pick. So I hope that doesn't happen. But I think there's an argument for it to happen because it's a points base league and he's an ace. All right. Let's hit a quick break.

And when we return, we've got a few non-AFL prospects I want to talk about. And we've got some by ourselves. as well. We'll do the here fantasy baseball today. All right, so I'm going to bunch these three together because they are all outfielders, Welsh, and I'll just throw them all your way. You tell me how you view them for dynasty, like who you, I guess how you would rank them. And that includes Alec Thomas, who is a 21-year-old outfielder with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Robert Hassel, who is a 20-year-old outfieler with the San Diego Padres, and Josh Lowe,

the brother of Nathaniel Lowe, no longer with the Tampa Bay Raise organization. But Josh Lowe, still with Tampa Bay, 23-year-old outfielder. We saw him play, I believe it was like two games in the majors this year. But he was really good in AAA. So what are we thinking? Thomas, I feel like you probably have had some exposure to him there. Hassel. He was on my show.

Alex was on my prospect one before the season started. Yeah. So Thomas Hassel, Josh Lowe. Actually, you know, interesting enough, I've interviewed both Josh and Alec and I was around Hassel a whole bunch this year because he was playing in Instructs and I got to see a ton of him. There are, it's kind of gaps. So Hassel is, far between and far ahead of all of these guys.

And I think people can make an argument to be like, hey, why would you have a differential between him and Alec Thomas? Well, I think Robert Haskell is like an elite elite hit tool. And the biggest knock on him, and also, by the way, he's been an elite base dealer as well. Really, really good, solid, young hitter, not a big strikeout guy, stealing bases, but he hasn't shown power.

And I think a lot of people look at kind of a smaller frame. They look at him, they don't, and they won't, and they can't project. future power where I do because I think that's the tool that's missing for a lot of people. But he's fun, but is he going to hit? Same thing with Corby Carroll. Is it going to hit for power? That's what we need. And I think it will be there with hassle. And I've got him. He's easy inside a top 15 prospect for me. Alec Thomas is the next tier. And that might be a surprise for a lot of people that I have Alec over Josh Lowe because Josh Lowe has the potential for

playing time early on. And, you know, projections are very favorable on him. But I love Alec. I think he's pros, pro. He was working with some major leaguers in the offseason, had a fantastic year. He's even projected on fan graphs right now on a 40-game marker to, you know, four homers, four stolen bases, but hitting 267. If you put that over a season, he'd at least be a 15-15 guy. I think he can hit at the top of the order. I think there's 20 plus power in there. I think he could be a 20-20 guy at the major league level. And I like Lowe. He took very serious, you know, he was very competitive with his brother, where his brother was seen as the power hitter and Nathan and Nathaniel. And, you know, he was like, I got as much power

as him, but he also steals bases. I should know where the playing time's going to go. I'd love for him to not be a ray. I think that would be awesome because then you could see him every day. I just don't see an everyday path for him anytime soon, but good power potential. I think he's kind of underrated, but it's hassle in his own tier. Alec and Josh are kind of in a tier together, but that's how I rank him. Josh Lowe, I will point out that the rays were shopping Kevin Kiermeyer before the So it looks like they're trying to free up some space in the outfield. Maybe that's for Josh Lowe. I would imagine it is for him. Well, they got Vidal Bruhan. Don't forget who also plays in the center field. He's he's like best friends with Wanda Franco, their roommates. Also, I think the actual move the Joy Windle move was about Taylor Walls coming in who they loved walls and Franco together. So you're right. There is their space that they're creating. But like the rays do, there's a whole bundle of guys that they're just going to get into rotating. But you know, Josh is the closest. to production this year. He's the guarantee of production of all of those guys. So again, I wouldn't

blame anybody if you wanted low over him, but hassle firmly above all those guys. All right, Scotty, I know that you had a few requests last time we had the Welsh on, and we didn't get to those requests. So I'm just going to turn this over to you. The floor is yours. You can ask the Welsh about these two prospects because I think that they are super interesting too. Yeah, they are. They're both first basemen, and you don't see a lot of first base prospects to begin with. And they both just had crazy productions in the minors last year. They were in those 24 team dynasty leagues. Two players I was picking up toward the end of the season because they hadn't really caught anyone's attention before them. So they're actually available even in Dynasty

leagues that deep. And they are, in order of how I have them ranked, Dustin Harris of the Rangers and Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals. So I'd like to hear your thoughts on both. Yeah. Ironically, Welsh. Thank you, the Scott. They actually share a complex too, which is an ironic thing, if anybody cares.

Royals and Rangers share a complex out here, so they are probably familiar with each other. I am opposite. I am a Pasquintino, and that might surprise a lot of people just because Dustin Harris put up video game numbers this past year, especially when you look at him as a first baseman. He's listed as a third baseman if you still look at like MLB pages, but he's more of a primary first base guy.

20 homers, 25 stolen bases, hit 300, and hit 300. across two levels. Now he is a, I mean, he did it between 21 and 22, but like 22 year old an A ball and then jumped up to high A. So he has not hit double A and he did all this, which is solid. James Anderson absolutely loves him. I saw Dustin in person, about five or six games during Instructs. And his physically, he's crazy impressive. Like, it's kind of scary. Like, he's just a big muscle band dude. And you look and you go, wow, this kid is stealing 25 bases. Yeah, he can run. Yeah, they list him at a buck 85. I don't think. So I think he was closer to 200.

He was just a big dude. List him at 6'2. I'm 6'4 and I want to say he was almost eye level with me. So that is impressive in what he did. But he wasn't good during instructs. And I don't want to like read too much into that. But he wasn't fantastic. It was a long season, but he just chased everything.

It was really hot during instructs as well. Didn't make any contact whatsoever, swung through a bunch of stuff, but physically imposing and made a really, really, really good output on the season. But I'm a little bit, unfortunately, I'm a, I need you to do it again for me. Like, I need confirmation bias on him. If he goes, then I'll join everybody, but I'll, you know, I'll be behind the pack

and not get credit, which is okay. But I think he's a good gamble because of the stolen basis. I love Vinnie Pasquintana though. Sorry, go ahead. Well, Dustin Harris, you know, you mentioned he was swinging through everything and instructs. The strikeout rate was 15.7% between low A and high A this year.

Yeah, and he was kind of old for the levels, I believe. Yeah, it's already 22. Yeah, 22 at high A is not like, it's not the worst thing in the world, especially if you consider them lost minor league season. But, you know, it's not ideal. It's not exactly what you're looking for. But that's my problem with him, Scott, is he's one of, he's a few of these guys that have done this where you're, I'm looking for, like, boxes. There are certain things I'm looking for. He checked everything.

Like, he didn't have a crazy strikeout rate. He dominated at both levels. He hit over 300. He walked a decent amount. You know, he hit for power. He stole bases. There's nothing that jumped out to you as. bad. So that's why you have to give him credit and he has to be seen as a top 100 prospect.

But there's just something about like looking at him and, you know, I don't, I think his body might move him off from flexibility in other spots. And you know, you just, you just hope these guys, especially when you see them in person, they do a little bit something for you, especially when you see a couple games and he never did. So that just kind of stood out to me a little bit. But he checked all the boxes, like you said. And that's something you have to give extra credit for. Pascatino, though, was just an absolutely elite hitter. really doesn't have much of a stolen base profile, which I think is, um, you know, something that you have to build into it. Now, he is even older and he only got to double A,

which is another thing to consider. So this is a 23 year old who's in high A, who hit 291. Really, really great walk rate though, 33 walks to 38 strikeouts, then went to double A and got even better. 11 homers in 55 games walked more than he struck out. And I was, you know, sourced through a source, but I was told by a source that there was a coach in the Royal, that said that they liked him over Nick Prado. They like Pasquintino over Nick Prado. And I think that, you know, people have a concept of that now and what that means, that he is just a better overall bet.

He's a more trustworthy bat. One of the hardest working prospects out there. And outside of, you know, Bobby Witt, like Pasquantino's right up there. So I've got him inside my top 75. I'm going to be aggressive on Pasquantino more than Dustin Harris. And that might not, that might be foolish in fantasy, to be honest with you. Especially if Dustin hits again and he steals those bases, then, you know, think of what we used to pay for Paul Goldschmidt

because we could get 12 stolen bases at the first base position. You get that again with a guy like Dustin Harris, let's go. But I think Pasquintino is a guy that we could see sooner rather than later, and I really think he could hit in the middle of the order. And he'd be exciting. Think of a run first team like the Royals are. You get Bobby Witt in there.

Maybe he's hitting three. You've got guys in front like Whitmerfield, maybe if Mondesie starts working again, and then Pasquitino's coming up in the rear. He's hitting four or five and just RBI Central. He's a guy that I would make a big bet on this year, because I think he could legit be a four-category guy as a relative no-name, you know, coming into the season.

Yeah, I mean, it's heartening to hear how much they like Pasquantino's bat because I feel like that's the sort of player who gets passed over on traditional prospect list, which then sometimes carries over to fantasy prospect list, is the plotter, right? The guy who can't really play anything but first base, but it's just an incredible hitter. And so, you know, it doesn't get much credit on prospect list because he has that narrow path to playing time.

But I like to gamble on that in fantasy if I feel like that path exists. And in Pasquantino's case, I'm not sure it does. I mean, you got to think Prado's going to get preferential treatment over him. He's a stud defender. That was one of the things that stood out to me because I saw Prado in his debut. Stud Defender, great bat, you know, good contact early on. I agree with where you're going with it,

that it's going to be hard to get Prado off of that, but that doesn't mean there's not a DH spot. Well, except MJ Melendez is on the verge of breaking in too, and they have Salvador Perez locked in behind the plate. So where's MJ Melendez going to play? Well, they did play, actually, ironically, they played Melendez at a little bit of third towards the back end of the year, which I think is a real.

I don't think that's like a real plan for him. Yeah, but I mean, like Salvi has been more of, I mean, again, it actually proves a point where if Salvi is your DH long term. Melendez has actually a better path than a guy like Pasquantino or it's Pasquantino versus Prado, which one is going to go. They could put one in the outfield. Nick Prado changed his body. I would point out to a lot of people really, really changed his body where he got a little, I don't know if it's bulky or too much this past year and he really kind of thinned in that I could see him moving to like a left field spot for Pasquantino. I think he did get some time at

right field. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you know, good arm in there as well. He's just a stud dude. But I think Pasquitino is going to get the first shot over Nick Prado, and that's going to be the big key. If he sticks, I don't think Prado's going to move him off there. But, you know, we'll have to wait to see. I love him both. I mean, we're arguing who's more worth investing in. You believe we're so excited about Royals?

I actually made a different decision, Pasquantino and Harris in a different league, in one league I up for Harris and another league I out for Pasquantino. So I guess I kind of hedge my bet there. I was going to ask you how close those two are you because you said you had Harris above. Are they, like, relatively close? Well, they're fourth and fifth in my first base rankings. Oh, who is in between them? Well, no one.

If they're fourth and fifth. I'm sorry, fourth and sixth. Oh, okay. Fifth is Seth Beer. I have beer behind them. And I love, I mean, Diamondback Homer, love Seth Beer. I love a lot about him, but I have Pasquantino over. I have both of them over beer right now.

I mean, I'm assuming beer is the opening day, D.H. Provided there's D.H. Yeah, good point. So that was part of my thinking there. But yeah, it's, it was close between those three. I kind of went back and forth between the three of them, as I was putting together, these rankings. All right, well, good problem there for the Royals to have.

Maybe the rebuild coming sooner rather than later for their team. Man, I wanted to do buyer's cell. We got like no time left. I don't know. We could do lightning round by it. Yeah, let's do lightning round. Let's spend, look, 30 seconds to a minute on each other. Yeah, yeah, no doubt about it.

I have all the faith in you Wells. So let's just run through these names pretty quickly. And these are prospects or players who have debuted, who have fallen on tough times. So we will talk about By herself, basically. So Welsh will start with you. Jaron Duran, who was basically like all the rage this time last offseason. And he got up to a really good start in AAA, played 33 games with the Red Sox and was not very good. Lots of strikeouts, lots of ground balls, struggled against lefties.

What do you think, By yourself and Dynasty? My quick note is a smart analytical hitter. Big push. His dynasty value is so low. that I buy because of the upside. It's so low and people are out that I think it's foolish not to take a shot because he has an opportunity to win the gig,

which I don't think he's going to actually be given when the league gets back going. But I would buy because of how low it is right now to make that gamble. And I will point out that steamer projections have Jared Duran for 13 homers, 15 steals. So if you play in a deep league, a five outfielder league, that's something that could have value.

I think he's post 100 in a lot of people's minds and there are prospect lists that have him way outside the top 100. That's why I think you buy to gamble. Scott, real quick, buy or sell, Darren Duran, and Dynasty. I mean, if he is outside of top 100 list for most people, then I agree with the Welsh. I perceive his value was higher than that. But he kind of took us on a roller coaster ride last season because, you know, a few people considered him much of a prospect before spring training.

Then he unveiled all this power and he got off to a great start in the miners. And then it just kind of all collapsed after that. So we don't really know exactly where he stands. I got a prospect debate for you, too, if you ever want to put it out on Twitter, is, I would love to know this, is Vidal Bruhan versus Jaron Duran for this year, because they're in the exact same camp. And I would not be shocked if it's 60% in favor of Vidal simply because he's a Ray and people giving him a pass because of the elite stolen bases. But I think those two guys are right in the same area. So Vidal versus Jaron Duran. All right.

Let's move out to the next one here. We have Nate Pearson, once regarded as one of, if not the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, dealt with a bunch of injuries. this past year. Looked good in September. Lots of strikeouts then, but again, it was only like 12 endings. He had sports hernia surgery

after the season ended. Welsh, what do you think? Nate Pearson, by herself. I'm a sell. I've always thought he's been a little bit too more too pitchy. I've never loved him as much as everybody else.

The injuries, the lack of, you know, just command and results. And he's just a big body guy that if they wanted, I think he's more useful at this point, especially in when now

to put him on the back end of a bullpen. And I think that could be his future home. We've seen lots of good pitchers, you know, get relegated to that role, Andrew Miller, Alec, Alex Reyes. So I'm going to say I'm a cell. All right. Well, I wish you didn't say that because I have him in the Scott White Dynasty League. It's perfectly fine. Scott, what do you think on Nate Pearson? I think of a buy. Do you know what his ADP was in those prospect mock drafts you did? I will take a look right now. He did not go in mine. And the draft I was a part of, 180 picks. And Nate Pearson was not selected. I think that's because he exhaust.

So I think that's the... No, he hasn't. He hasn't. He has not. Not even by the games, the active game standard. I think it might have been... Oh, really? Then I'm not sure he did not go.

I think we might have taken him off for... Maybe there's a confusion on eligibility. So he did not know. Okay. Well, we'll have to clear that up after the podcast, I guess. But yeah, I mean, it seems like there's a presumption among fantasy baseballers especially. Oh, he's a reliever.

they're just they're just he's a reliever and they're moving on and i've noticed that for him and for six to sanchez and for mackenzie gore it feels like fantasy baseballers are more anxious to move off of these guys than you know traditional prospect evaluators and and so i'll i'll take a chance on that i mean we know what kind of upside pearson has i admit the odds of him reaching it seemed lower now but if you know i feel like you could get him for next to nothing in some dynasty leagues. And like what what out there at pitcher is more projectable?

Not that much. I will throw in MLB.com in their top, like they have their prospect stuff. They're a great barrier to know if someone has exhausted the major league rule and he is not on their prospect list. So I don't know the exact thing which took it off,

but he has exhausted prospect eligibility enough to be removed from MLB.com's top 30 on the Blue Jays. That's always just been a good barometer for me because you get long. lost in like the games played and active days on the roster. Yeah, I thought I looked into it, how many days he was on the active roster, but I may have gotten that wrong. All right.

Well, for this one, for these next couple, just give me a buy or sell. Jeter, down. Sell. Scottie? Yeah, I agree. McKenzie Gore. Unless he can get him for nothing, I mean. Mackenzie Gore.

Sell. Scotty? I'm more, I'm more interested in buying low. If you like your lever, buy. If you're in a save hold league, buy. Or long innings, buy. If you like starting pitchers, sell. Yeah, I mean, just what a truly nightmare season for McKenzie Gore.

I mean, it's really the only word that you can use. And then he was awful in the AFL too. He only made three starts. But gosh, he was bad. Welsh, Drew Waters. Ooh. I guess I'm an overall in a vacuum cell, but I think his value so low,

kind of like Jaron Duran, that I like to buy just because, I think it's dirt cheap. So maybe I'm hedging or I'm lying here. Maybe I guess I just need to say bye, because I think it's so low that why would you not take a shot on him? Well, that's what I was the kind of thing with Jeter Downs. But.

I used to love Jeter. I just saw him this. I mean, he had some homers, but hitting over 220 is going to be a struggle. Truth is I was not high on Drew Waters even going into this past year. And I kind of just went along with the consensus. But I did not feel great about his skill. and I actually did buy him in a 2014 dynasty league

because like a throw-in in a deal, but just in a general sense. I'm out on Drew Waters. I've said this a couple times. The weirdest thing to me, and it's the dumbest little thing, but the Braves has always sent their pitching prospect or their outfield prospects to the AFL,

and he didn't get sent. He seemed like the most prime candidate ever, so I just think he's lacking behind. But he does have five tools that are there. It's just he's not tapping into them. So I don't know. Post-150. where he probably is. I think of my ADP, he was like 130, 140 or something like that.

I just think those are solid by solid throw-ins. It's just a good throw-in. Last one here, Six-O Sanchez. He missed all of 2021 due to shoulder surgery. He repaired a capsular tear and cleaned out the back of his right shoulder. Welsh, what do we think, Six-O-Sanchez? I'm a buy. I'm still a believer in Six-O-E-E-E-E-Roy. Don't love the injury stuff, but, you know, like hit 99, high-velocity, getting swings, just command. He's been a low ERA guy in the minors. I just believe in 6-0. The injuries make it really, really rough.

But I think it's one of the best times to buy him coming off of an injury. And I think he could, I mean, in that rotation, I guess he's not going to be an ace anymore because they're just littered with him. They grow them off of trees. But they do great things with starting pitchers. And I think he can overcome it. And I think from a talent perspective, I think he's got the best stuff of all of those guys. Maybe, you know, Sands a changeup or two here from an Alcantara or Alcantra. but I'm a buyer on 6-0.

Scotty, 6-0 Sanchez. Yeah, I'm a buyer too. I mean, it really comes down to, does he come back to this capsule tear with his velocity still intact or doesn't he? If he does, you're looking at a guy who already proved he could handle a major league lineup. And if he doesn't, then, okay, we'll see what's left. But he's more of a ground ball guy than a bat misser anyway. Or at least that's what he's been so far. I think he has the potential to miss more bats.

But I think maybe he could even survive with reduced velocity. So, yeah, it seems like a lot of people are scared, and I think unfairly so. If you care for redraft, I mentioned multiple times that I'm in my first draft of the offseason. It's a slow draft, draft and hold over on the NFBC. And I just got him in round 23 as my seventh starting pitcher. I pick 340. So they're cheap. He's literally free there.

What do you think? No, just to say, I have that. The one caveat I put in is like, I'm a little weary of guys coming off that type of injury, then buying them back in a redraft season in the next year. But you got them at a really low cost. I guess I'd want a little bit more down than an SP7, but you can make good on that. And he can get some innings. But from a, you know, multi-year perspective, I absolutely love buying on him.

All right. He is the Welsh, the man behind in this league. Of course, the host of the Prospect One podcast. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Is It the Welsh. we appreciate you buddy thanks for coming on thank you so much for having me always love doing it love you all and to all a good night that is a great way to end the podcast for scott and welsh i'm frank thank you all for listening and watching we'll be back again on thursday to recap our first head-to-head points mock draft of the offseason bye bye