Fantasy Baseball Today - ATC Projections & Shohei Ohtani Outlook w/ Ariel Cohen! (3/1 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 1, 2023

Welcome to the podcast, Ariel Cohan (1:20)! ... What are ATC projections and how can we use them in Fantasy Baseball (5:00)? Why does Scott hate projections (7:40)? ... Is ATC low on Vinnie Pasquantino (17:15)? ... What's the realistic outcome for Thairo Estrada (21:32)? ... Alec Bohm and Alex Verdugo are boring but undervalued (25:32). ... Why do projections struggle with Alek Manoah (30:45)? ... Jordan Montgomery vs. Jesus Luzardo (37:15). ... News (44:07): Joe Musgrove fractured his toe! ... We wrap up with a Shohei Ohtani breakdown (52:12). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Who's ready for a good old-fashioned slobber knocker? Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, March 1st. Frank Sample joined by Scott White.

And yesterday I mentioned that I'm not. I was gonna put you in a steel cage match, Scott. Are you ready to enter the Thunderdome? Oh, I am, oh, I'm always ready for a steel cage match. That is my idea of a good time. There you go, that's exactly what we're gonna do today. We're talking projections. We'll find some disparities between ATC projections

and Scott's rankings, and then we're gonna do a breakdown of Shohei Otani because I told everyone that I was going to talk about Otani, on yesterday's podcast, and I never did that. So we're going to do that today a little bit later on. Joining us to talk about projections. He is the mastermind behind the ATC projection system, which could be found right here on Sportsline,

but also on Fangraphs, and I think a few other places as well, the host of the Beat the Shift podcast, Pickleball Connoisseur and the lover of the New York Mets. He is Ariel Cohen. What's going on, Ariel? Hey, how are you? Frank and Scott, how are you doing? Oh, pickleball is so.

awesome you guys you haven't tried it you have to try it's amazing and if you were watching the met game uh on sunday they they showed uh the s n y guys playing it they didn't like it but uh they don't what they don't know what they're talking about they didn't like i saw on twitter that they were ragging pickleball and my first thought was you ariel well isn't it's like doesn't i don't know i thought like i i understand how that would be like an old man crusty baseball take to not like this fad, but isn't it largely a fad among older people? So no, no. So the nice thing about pickleball is that it's a game that anybody can play at any age.

And so older people can play it. And it's a fun game for that level. But you can have a bunch of 20-year-olds playing it at a very high level. And it's very fast pace and running. So when I'm playing, I'm a 4-0 player. So when I'm playing, I'm running, I'm sweating. I'm going all the way up and knocking stuff, jumping over. I'm not just going, here you go, dink, wait for it, wait for it.

Different type of game, but it's nice because every generation can play it in their own way. Because it's like a smaller court than a tennis court, right? Much smaller? Yeah, it's the size of a badminton court, actually. Okay. See, when I was in college, we played a game. It was called Cat. It was an acronym, Catch and Throw.

And we'd play it on a regular tennis court with the tennis. ball, but no rackets. It was doubles. You'd just throw it. Someone would have to catch it, and then they'd throw it back. And it sounds lame, but it is

not. It was tons of fun. We played that so many times, and people would always try and chase us off the tennis courts because it's like, we actually have rackets. We'd be like buzz off. We were here first. Frank, this summer, we got to instead of tennis, maybe we do pickleball.

Yeah, I've got to try it out. You know, Ariel only brings up tennis because every time we play, he beats me. He is better than me, admittedly. And I love how when Scott asked about pickleball being an old person's game, my first response was like, yeah, for sure. And then, of course, Ariel had to set the record. Ariel, let everyone know where they could find you on Twitter and then all the work you're up to nowadays.

Yeah, absolutely. On Twitter, I'm at ATCNY. I do the Beat the Shift podcast. You can find that in any podcast aggregator. and my stuff over at Fangraphs and Rotobiler, and of course, the ATC projections right here on CBS Sportsline. Yes, for sure. And both Ariel and myself will be in Florida.

Well, I guess Scott's going to be there too because he lives there. But we're going to be at West Palm Beach this weekend for first pitch Florida, all the labor drafts going on. Ariel will be competing on Sunday in the mixed draft, and I'll be Friday night in the NL-only draft. So if you're going down, you're heading down, come by, say what's up. We'd love to hang out and talk some baseball and watch some baseball, some spring training games as well. The main point of today's episode is because Scott hates projections.

Not really, but we'll talk about it. And obviously, Ariel does a great job with ATC. So we want to pick his brain a little bit about what goes into the process and a couple of players that might either be higher or lower than consensus rankings or ADP. So let's just start off with little game theory here, Ariel. What are the ATC projections? because I know they're not the standard type of projection that we're used to seeing on like Fangraphs per se. Yeah, ATC is an, it's a projections aggregator.

I take a bunch of other projections, good ones, obviously, and I blend them in a certain way. Most people who do aggregation only do, they do aggregation across the board. Take 20% of this, 20% of that, 20% of this, and then blend it. But I actually have a different weight for each projection system, and it's a different weight per statistic. I might have one projection getting a very high weight and stolen bases,

but a low-weight-in pitcher strike ads and vice versa. And when you do that, because it's a smart blend, it really takes the best of everything, and it minimizes bias. It's a great long-term bet. I rig it so that it would be the best bet of the players if you had used this type of weighting over the last couple of years. So that's a little bit about that.

The nice thing about ATC, though, is that its strength is, its hit rate in that if you pick a player and the player is going more, ATC is showing that he's worth more than what the market is, in general, that percentage of the time being right is much higher than if you, than other projections or other rankings. And similarly on the bust rate, if ADC shows it's a bust, not that it's usually right, but it's right more often at the time than everybody else. Gotcha. And what is the best way in your opinion to utilize ATC projections for fantasy baseball purposes because on Fangraphs,

I know they have an auction calculator and you could choose whichever projection system you want and then it will take those projections and turn them into auction values or basically another way to say rankings, I guess you could say for each position and you could use those throughout your draft. I mean,

are there any other ways that you've noticed using the ATC projections within a draft? Yeah, that's the best way to do it. It was really to come up with the, use the auction calculator, really it's very customizable to whatever your league does, the rules, the categories, is the points, whatever it is. And get that out. And I think the most important thing, though, is then to match it against the market.

So take the rankings from ATC, take the ADP that you can get from another source, either from, you know, fantasy pros or from the NFBC or, you know, wherever, you know, wherever you're drafting is probably the best one. And compare it. And it'll really bubble up to the top where ATC is much higher than. anybody else. And those are the players that you might want to consider more if they're much higher than the market. Now, obviously, most of the time when I say that, Scott hates projections, he doesn't actually hate projections, but there are certain people, Scott, that they live and

they die by projections. So I just want to open it up to you to explain yourself, what is your reasoning for, obviously not hating, but maybe going against the grain when it comes to projections. Yeah, I think the most contentious way I've put it in the past is I don't believe in projections. Ouch. He's right there, man. Come on. And it's like it's obviously more complicated than that. I say that as a way of creating ire.

And, you know, obviously projections can serve a purpose. I don't think they serve me that well because I have the luxury of time. I mean, I'm paid to do this and a big part of the work I put it in the offseason is reviewing every player individually and coming up with my own rankings independent from projections. If you don't have that sort of time, then obviously projections could make a great shortcut for helping you develop your rankings. But there's a reason why people's rankings different from other people's rankings.

And I am one of the people who's tasked with coming up with their own rankings. So it's almost like a disservice if I were to lean on projections in that way. Now, you know, obviously as I'm putting together my rankings, I'm reviewing players' past work. I am looking at skill indicators, assessing playing time situations, and coming up with a rough idea. of the kind of stat line I see them producing. So in a way, that is projections, you could say. I'm not putting a very specific number on it. And I don't even want to think of it in terms of a specific number,

because I want to think of it as the likelihood of different scenarios coming into play, best case scenario, worst case scenario, how likely each of those is for this particular player. or O'Neill Cruz being a great example this year, a real boom or bust type, a nice median projection for O'Neill Cruz would probably not be a very realistic stat line for O'Neill Cruz. He's probably either going to outperform that medium projection or underperform that median projection.

And so that's where I think projections are limited. And I know, Ariel, you have ways of weaking the projections to account for those risk factors. and I think the way you do projections is a very sensible way of doing it. So, you know, it's not at all meant as a way to undermine what you do. You do it well. But it's just more for me, projections would serve as a crutch. And I see people use them as a crutch in times that I think are detrimental.

For example, this is one thing that always irks me when a draft is complete. somebody plugs everybody's rosters into a projection system. Oh, this is what the standings are supposed to look like. The standings never end up looking like that. And usually because projections are kind of median in nature, they try to find the most vanilla outcome for every player. There's not going to be much differentiation in those projected standings anyway, not as much as there actually ends up being in real life.

So that's kind of an annoyance of mine. But that's the sort of thing that bothers me with projections, when people are like, oh, projections say I'm going to finish eighth in home runs. Well, you know, maybe it's a really low projection for one of those players. And that's why it's shown you eighth for home runs instead of fourth in home runs. The gap may not be that big between the two teams. I don't know. I think you get what I'm saying.

Yeah, I think the problem, and Scott, you touched on this, is that sometimes people take the projections too. much at face value. And Ariel, you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe these are median projections. They are 50th percentile outcomes. So again, you brought up O'Neill Cruz, Scott, and the projection, according to ATC, 244, 24 home runs, 17 steals. Now, I don't see a scenario where he hits 24 with 24 home runs or whatever you said it was. Like, that just, like, if he hits only 24 home runs, he's probably hitting 210 or less, you know. And I think using projections as like a starting point just to give you an idea of like a baseline value for a player

and then you dig in a little bit more and figure out okay I like this player a little bit more than projections so maybe you boost them up yourself I think that's the way that I would utilize projections and that's a way that I have used them before but ariel I know that ATC also has different risk factors to measure a boom or bust type potential player like an O'Neo Cruz A lot was said there, Scott. And, no, I totally get that. I totally get that, that, you know, you don't want to just rely on some computer system that's giving you a very bland 50th percentile.

But, you know, projections are about a best guess. It's not about showing what actually is going to happen. It's, you know, whenever I project batting averages, I always have, like, four guys projected over 300. Freddie Freeman, Luis Sorayas, you know, and Juan Soto, let's say. And everyone asks me, wait a minute, Ariel, that's not going to happen. There's going to be like 15 people over 300. Your projections can't be right. But that's not true.

You can have a best-guess projection that isn't an exactly real-life scenario. And let me give you an example that everyone can relate to. If you go into a hotel lobby and you go to the bottom floor and there are two elevator banks, A and B and they're, I know, 10 feet apart, you don't know which one's going to go first, right? so you don't know where to stand. Where should you stand? What's the best guess of where you stand? In the middle.

It's the middle. Yeah. The middle. But the middle is not an actual answer. You can't get on in the middle. You have to get on here or there. So even though it's not a real-life guess, it's still good to be there because it's the shortest distance between both possible points.

And when you're making bets in the long term and you're betting on a lot, like if you were to do this experiment 35 times, you're best off being in the middle. So when you're picking a fantasy baseball team and you're picking 23 players, you're better off with the best guess being in that middle line, even though it may not be an exact real thing. I'm just trying to illustrate the fact that it doesn't have to be exact what you would conceive in real life to be best gets in the aggregate. But what ATC does, which is really interesting, is ATC doesn't just provide a number. It provides a flavor because since ATC comes from different projections, there is a range of different projections. Some projections have a player really high, some could have really low and everything in between. And there are some players that projections are just really tight within each other.

They all say he's a $10, $10, $10, $9. And some, they're all over the place. That's really helpful because that shows the riskiness of projections for the player. Oh, we have no idea what this player is going to be. Or we have a really good idea. Having a more certainty of what a player is is a very, very, very, very. good dimension for projections. So it's not just the point that you're getting with ATC. You're getting a flavor of how disparate the underlying projections are. And I think when you're coming up with

who you should pick, you know, you can you can understand what the best guess is, which is ATC, but understand that, oh, there are opinions up and down. Like, for example, I picked Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He actually has a very widespread of projections. But I like his upside in the first round, because I saw what he did two years ago when he was a $40 player. and I sort of bought into that. So I didn't just take the number, which would have put them a little bit lower. I bought into that, and I like that a highness. I usually don't do that in the first round, but I don't know, me as the analyst,

likes them better than the ATC projections. And that's fair, you know? So there's a lot of different things you can do. And one of the good thing about ATC is it really colors in everything. Ariel, I have to ask, did you take Vlad over Freddie Freeman? Because I know you love Freeman. Yeah, I did take Vlad over Freddie Freeman. Yes.

I had that choice. I do like Freddie Freeman. But just where I sat in the draft, what I was thinking I was going to get later in an auction, you might not see me do that. I might, you know, it's get anybody whenever you want. But where you're positioned in a draft, I knew that I had to get a certain combo. And so Vlad gave me a better combo that makes it easier for me to do the rest of the draft. And that's why I took him over Freddie Freeman. But, you know, that's the difference between a snake draft and a salary cap.

one. You wanted more power? Is that what you're getting at? Correct. I wanted more power from that spot. And I would say, like last year was a down year for Vlad, but that's probably his floor, right? I still think that we could see a pretty realistic outcome where he's close to a 900 OPS type player, hits 30 to 35 home runs and drives in a bunch of RBI this upcoming season. Let's do a little ATC versus Scott White, Little projections versus rankings and some players that ATC is either higher on or lower on compared to Scott's rankings. This one might be a little Fugazi, this first one right here, because we were talking beforehand. I looked at the projection for Vinnie Pasquantino, otherwise known as Vinny P. Baby!

But the projection's good. I saw the projection according to ATC. I was like, this doesn't really make sense. So I don't know. Maybe it'll just be a bunch of people agreeing that Vinie Pasquantino is really good. like we've been doing all off season. By the way, R.L did a great podcast interviewing Vinnie Pass Quantino so you can go check that out in the Beat the Shift feed.

But the projection is 278, 22 home runs, 69 runs, 77 RBI, and an 831 OPS for Vinipas Guantino. And it sounds light, but that still is a player who doesn't have a very long track record. So it's mildly conservative, but Ariel, where are you at on Vini Pass Quantino this season? do you actually see yourself buying in, the ADP is 94.4? Yeah, so here's a spot where the ATC projections have them close to about the eighth or ninth best first basement.

But because of the risk factors, all the projections, amazingly for this second year guy or barely a second year guy, they're really tight. Not only that, they're skewed negative, meaning if there's any one projection that disagrees, it disagrees low. I'm inclined to toss that one out. I think he could be better. I love Vinny P. His contact rate is unbelievable. He had almost a 90% contact rate. He walked more than he struck out last year.

That's really hard to do. And when I spoke to him on the podcast, he was well aware of that. This guy was on the ball. Sometimes when you actually talk to a person, you really get to know them. He's so on the ball, so well-spoken, very analytical. I love his attitude. and I think that the 22 homers that ATC projects, that might even be low. So I'm in on Vinnie Pasquentino.

Risk adjusted, he's about my sixth best. Maybe Jose Bray who goes right before him, but I have him right there. I think he is amazing. Scott, you've done a few more drafts recently. I know you just did a salary cap, Hed Head to Had Points Draft, before this podcast. We're currently doing the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Slow Draft as well. The more drafts you do, do you find yourself more like. less likely to draft any past Quantino?

I haven't drafted him yet, I don't think. Fraud! I hate that. I can't like as we talked about, you know, just coming out of the position previews, we talked about this ad nauseum, like first base and shortstop, but even more so first base is one of the few positions that really affords you an opportunity to wait. And so, you know, everybody likes Fini Pasquantino.

So if I were to draft him, I would be passing on the chance to wait at that position where you actually can wait. So that's been the problem. Originally, I had him ranked lower than sixth. I actually had Jose Abraeu ahead of him. And I think most likely scenario for each, I think it would be close between those two. I might still give the edge to Abraeu, but I decided to bump past Guantino up over him because I like the upside so much. And because I'm already having a hard enough time drafting him as it is now that he's ahead. of a brayu.

So, you know, that's the sort of thing that you can work into rankings a little easier. I mean, I don't know. It sounds like Ariel still applies enough of those subjective measures in with his projections. But, you know, you can sort of game your rankings to suit your experience, if that makes sense. and it doesn't have to be strictly, okay, I think this player is going to be better than this player. You know, it doesn't have to be that strict. Yeah, and by the way, I find myself less inclined to take Vinny P, just like you in a snake draft, because of the fact that there are some good values later.

And I like the guys on top, as I've mentioned before. In a salary cap draft, I'm probably more inclined. So it really depends on the setting. I agree with you on that. All right. Well, we've got a couple, a bunch more players. to get to, but first let's take our first break here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back into Fantasy Baseball today. The Gauntlet rolls on. Frankly, these guys are

being a little bit too nice to each other. I don't know. I wish there was a little bit more shouting, yelling going on. Let's get angry here, man. Maybe we'll do that over Tyro Estrada. Probably not. According to ATC, the 10th second basement in value is Tyro Estrada. He's 20th in Scott's rankings, and the projection has Tyro Estrada at a 260 batting average, 14 homers, 69 runs, 58 RBI, and 17 steals over 136 games. And Scott, me personally, I'm closer to you as well. I have Tyro Esrata as a bus this year because, A, I don't buy the power. He had 14 home runs last year.

The home run to fly ball ratio, 12% on just a 4.4% barrel rate, so I don't really trust that. And big splits, much better against left-handed pitching. We know the Giants are very platoon half. at time. So if he gets off to a slow start against Ritey's, is he assured playing time? I worry about those two things specifically for Tyro Ashtra. Yeah, I worry about those things too. And part of the reason I think there is such a disparity is this is the sort of player projection system struggle with the most because there's not really

any sort of track record here. They're just going off the one year that Tyro Estrada became a fantasy asset. So one year wonder who did it at age 26, nobody really saw him coming, and his one year that were basing this off of, he barely had a 700 OPS.

You know, he had 260. He didn't, he wasn't a standout in any one category. He just managed to get enough home runs and enough stolen bases that it made him worthwhile. So I think he is walking a very, very narrow, line here. And ultimately, I just don't believe in him enough to invest in him anywhere close to

last year's numbers. So that's why I'm so much lower on him. The good news, Ariel, is that if someone does like Tyro Ashrada, he's not going that late. The ADP isn't terrible at 185. The problem for me, again, is he's going the same draft position as Jonathan India, someone I like on the bounce back. He's going ahead of Catelle Marte. Someone I do think has more established skills. than Tyro O'Shtra. Where are you at personally on the ATC projection of Tyro O'Shtrada?

So I'm a little bit lower than what the projection shows. And if you look on roster resource on fan graphs, it's showing he's the leadoff batter or so. I don't believe that. Look what the Giants did last year.

And we know the Giants platoon guys up the wazoo. They did not have him batting regularly in first. So I believe that the playing time that is ATC shows probably a little bit too high. Um, I mean, he's not even a good defender, by the way. That would, that would reassure me if he was, but he's capable of playing shortstop, but not very well.

Yeah. So I do some manual, uh, edits and I took down the playing time a little bit. It was actually even higher than this. I mean, the projections on Fangrafts have them like 530 at bats, uh, quite a lot. I don't even buy the, the, the 500 or so that, that ATC is giving. Uh, and so that's why I'm, I'm less convinced as well. but the batting average of 260, I fully believe, because his contact rate is awesome. The stolen basis, he had 21 last year.

I don't see why that would not continue, given the same amount of playing time. Power was, you know, I agree with you, probably a little bit high. But the overall counting numbers, I think that if he plays the number of at bats that ATC gives, I think that that is his value and he's a bargain in the market. I just don't believe all the playing time because of the giant situation. So I'm not too far away from what ATC shows here, but I'm a little bit closer to you guys, I would say, than the numbers actually give.

All right, let's move over to two more hitters here, and I'm going to group these together because I think they're kind of similar in that they're kind of boring players, and I think projection systems like boring players, specifically ones that provide good batting average, right? So Alec Bohm is projected to be the 11th best third baseman, according to ATC. I think that says a lot about the third base position as well.

He's ranked 21st for Scott. And then Alex Verdugo is the 34th ranked outfielder by ATC projections. He's 52nd for Scott. And these are for 5x5 roto category rankings. Now, Verdugo is probably a more reliable player in a points league format. Ariel, correct me if I'm wrong. But again, these are two players that have safe playing time, and they're both projected for a 277 batting average or better.

So I think just the fact that they're on the field as much as they are, and providing that type of batting average, that the counting stats just kind of come along with it. Would you agree with that for both Bohm and Verdugo? Yeah, I agree with the projections here. I think these are fantastic buys of players. What I think people have struggled seeing why they're so valuable are the runs and RBIs.

When everyone looks at projections or looks at numbers, oh, how many homers this guy going to have? Or what's his batting average? What's the stolen bases? Well, in a 5x5 roto league, 40% is runs and RBIs. Alex Bowman is going to have a lot of RBIs on the Phillies. He had 72 last year. Alex Verdugo, probably going to lead off.

He's going to score a lot of runs. I mean, just to give you a feeling for Verdugo, he only scored 75 run only last year. The year before that, 88, the year before that he was on the pace of 97 in the short season. So this is a runs machine. People don't realize just how valuable that is late in a draft. It's hard to get almost 100 run players with a sparkling 280 back. batting average. So I believe all these projections. I think that people just don't understand

the value of them, even if they only hit 15 homers and five steals. And about Alec Bohm, I actually think he's going to have more than the 15 homers projected. I think he has a 20 homer upside. I don't think he's tapped into his full thing yet. He's 26 years old, so he's coming close to the big power age. So I'm fans of both these players. I totally am online with this. And hey, if people are going not take them, I'll be there. I'm mildly interested in both of these players as well. I mean, it's not easy to find batting average at this point in the draft. They're going right around picks 200.

And I kind of agree with Bome. I don't know that we've seen the best yet. He hits the ball really hard. He did a better job with Launch Angle last year. And he hit a home run the other day in spring training. I was watching that game. The broadcast mentioned that Bome added five to 10 pounds of muscle this offseason and that Rob Thompson wants Alec Bome to pull the ball more.

And we know that is much more conducive to power. So maybe there is another step for Alec Bohm here. Scott, these two guys are kind of boring. I just feel like Verdugo is someone that you'll just be like, he doesn't give me power. What is he going to give me? Last year, he provided $10 in a 12-team league. He finishes the 30th ranked outfielder in Roto.

So you just don't even realize it, but he plays every day and those counting stats slowly add up. Well, and another thing you have to keep in mind is my rankings are optimized for 12-team leagues where it makes less sense to invest in boring because boring is available on the waiver wire usually. Now, if you're playing in a deeper league, a 15-team leagueer, that's less the case, and you might want to play it a little safer with your late picks. For what it's worth, I mean, you say Alec Bohm is worth investing in late for the counting

stats and the batting average help. Well, if he was actually going 11th among first baseman like ATC suggests he should, then he wouldn't be a late round pick, you know? So I would say, like, the user preferences have made it so he's worth taking rather than, you know, if everybody just ranked off projections, he'd be worth taking. The other thing is, yeah, like I just laid out, some of the third baseman that I rank ahead of Alec Bone are higher ceiling types with a lot more risk. like Anthony Rendon, Josh Young,

Brian Hayes, Jordan Walker. I have him ahead of Alec Boehm. I mean, who knows when he'll get the job in St. Louis, and who knows how well he'll do as a 21-year-old. But it could go really well.

It could go sort of like it did for Julio Rodriguez last year, and I'd say the risk is worth a reward over the relatively boring Alec Boehm. One thing you said there, Scott, that I do agree with is I think these two players, are better suited for deep deep league formats.

So if you play in a 15 team roto league or NL only with Bohm or A.L only with Verdugo, I feel really good at that, that A, these guys are gonna play. They both been relatively healthy so far in their career. So I do think they are more optimized for higher floor deep league plays, both Alec Bohm and Verdugo, guys that I do think

could outperform where they're being drafted right now, if that's just what you're looking for at that point in the draft. Let's move over to pitch. And Alec Manoa is an interesting one here. SP 14 for Scott, SP 24 for ATC. And this is something that we've seen with projections in the past,

and we continue to see with somebody like Julio Areas, where the peripherals, the X-FIP, the FIP are typically much higher because someone like Minoa or Arias, they do a really good job of limiting hard contact. And Ariel, again, correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like projection systems struggle with pitchers that limit hard contact.

Maybe they don't have the same level of skills in terms of strikeouts and swinging strike rate, but maybe that's something that's not quantified enough yet when it comes to projection systems. What would you say for both Alec Manoa or even someone like Julio Rius, because they have very, very similar skill sets at this point? Yeah, your point is correct. Julio Urius is often penalized by projections and probably too much. doesn't quantify projections don't get the BABIP right. I mean, being on the Dodgers with a nice park, some good defense or so, the BABBs

going to be lower. And that's going to projections are going to regress it to more of a league average and show, hey, he's outperforming his fifth. He's outperforming his Sierra. He should be worse, and he never quite makes it. Now, maybe it's just, you know, you flip a coin a couple of ten times and he's the guy that it all turned up heads, maybe. but there is, I think there is something to it, the fact that he beats it.

Alec Manoa also, it's very possible the same way. But different than Urius though. You know, in Toronto, the babsps are usually higher. Look at Kevin Gousman and Jose Burrios, and they got hit by really, really bad babbps. And Alk Medo was so unlucky the other way. I just think that that gap is going to be tilted more towards the unluckiness being in Toronto. So that whip of under one that's not even close. I think the rest of his stats look

fine. He's going to give up more runs. Toronto is also bringing in the fences. So it's going to be a little bit more hitter friendly even, especially to homers which give up runs. So I think that Manoa is just a slightly worse than people think. And certainly a bigger, you need to take a bigger cut on him than you would for Urius because of the park that he plays for. And so again, I think the projections are down on him. Not all rightfully so, but I think definitely you need to give the ding on him more than the market does. Yeah, and I think this is where nuance is involved with projections, right? Because, RL, you just mentioned that projection systems automatically want to regress the BABIP towards league average.

But somebody like Julio O'Reas or Alec Manoa, they're typically going to have lower Babbos because they're fly ball pitchers, right? So those are either turning into fly ball outs or they're going out for home run. So not being factored into, you know, they're factoring into a lower Babbitt for both of those guys. So I don't know if we could just say, okay, it's going to regress towards league average because A, those guys give up fly balls. And they do a really good job of limiting hard contact. So, Scott, I think this is one spot where there has to be a little bit of nuance involved in your specific analysis of players. And that's something that we see with Alec Manoa. with all of that being said,

I would still bet on his ERA jumping, you know, closer to three this year. I mean, 2.24 with a 0.99 whip. As good as he was, his ex-ERA according to Stackass was 3.35. So I think we're probably closer to that. I mean, anytime somebody has

a low 2 ZRA, you know, it's unlikely that it's unlikely that's going to be repeated. But the projection has him at 369 and that's obviously huge correction and overcorrection, I would say. You know, part of the issue with projections is you never know, you don't get a look under the hood. You don't know exactly what variables it's accounting for or not accounting for and if it's

accounting for them enough because there are so, so, so, so many variables you can consider. And when I look at Alec Manoa, of course, the initial knee-jerk reaction is, oh, look at that gap between his ERA and his ERA estimators. But then you consider, okay, he's done it two years in a row. He is a fly ball pitcher during a time when it's becoming a beneficial thing to be a fly ball pitcher, especially if the contact isn't especially hard. during the juice ball era. A lot of those not even, especially hard hit fly balls would turn into home runs, but that's not happening anymore.

They're just turning into outs, and that's a good way to beat your projections. So I think Alec Mnanoa fits that to a T. Plus Toronto over the past couple of years has been less homer prone, like the venue itself. It's become slightly leaning toward pitchers. And they've made some adjustments.

Maybe that'll change. But I think Alec Minowah's skill set is pretty solid at this point. And we saw him strikeout a lot more hitters during his rookie 2021 season. So I think there's more chance that the strikeouts improve than that the ERA blows up to near four, like some of these projection systems are saying. I'm higher on him than most. I think I'm looking at NFBC ADP here. He's 19th among starting pitchers.

I have 14th. ATC has him 24th. So his going rate is kind of splitting the difference. But I kind of see Alec Minoa as another Shane Bieber. I expect them to have similar numbers this year. And the thing is, it's interesting because they go about it different ways, right? Like Bieber doesn't get a bunch of fly balls. He gets like a good amount of ground balls.

But yeah, he's just been around longer, has a longer track record. That's why I trust someone like Julio Reyes over Manoa. If you're just deciding between those two, they're similar pitchers, but we've seen Aureas do it for, what, the past three, four years. So I just trust it more with someone like him versus Alec Mino. Let's get to one more pitcher here. We've talked a lot about Jesus Lazzardo. I was going to go on my little rant, but everyone knows why I love Jesus Lazzardo.

Have we talked that much about him? I don't feel like we've talked that much about them. I mean, that's fine. Do your thing? You're moving us forward. Do you want to talk about Lizarro or Jordan Montgomery? Because Montgomery is kind of boring, but that's probably why he ranks very. high in projections.

I don't care. Either one. Let's get into it. Let's do it fast and maybe we can do both. All right. Well, let's talk about, we'll start. You know what? I'll throw them both here away.

And Scott, we'll start with you. Jordan Montgomery, SP 43 for ATC. He's SP64 for you. Basically the inverse for Jesus Lazzardo, where Lazzardo, SP 63 for ATC projections and SP40 for Scott.

Jordan Montgomery last year had a great season, basically career best across the board. He's now part of the Cardinals where he got better as the season went on once he got traded there,

change up his pitch mix a little bit too. Again, I think this is one where Jordan Montgomery is just kind of boring and he's solid and maybe Scott, you're not selling out

for boring or solid in your rankings, but obviously the projections are going to like someone like that. And then the inverse, I think the projections are lower on Lazzardo because they typically look at three-year averages

and Lazzardo was really good last year, but he was a train wreck before that. So it kind of makes sense in my mind why projections will devalue him. Scott, I'll give you Jordan Montgomery. I'll give Lizardo to Ariel Cohen. Why are you so low on Jordan Montgomery? Yeah, maybe it is a situation where they're just seeing him as safe and reliable and safe and reliable, you know, particularly if you're talking to 12-team context, as I said with Alec Bowen. That's a losing strategy in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. I think early on, yes,

you don't want to whiff on those picks because you need a big return. from them. So, you know, don't, don't sell out too much for upside early. But later in the draft,

you should routinely be selling out for upside. I suspect, you know, just looking at histories of these pitchers,

um, uh, Jordan's Montgomery would be preferred by projection systems to like a Hunter Green or a Kodai Senga or, um,

do they prefer Lizardo? Yeah, they do prefer, Professor Lazzardo slightly. Dustin May, I would guess. I don't really know. I'm just saying, like, I could understand, given the history of these pitchers, if it's looking for a median outcome for all of them,

it would say, okay, Jordan Montgomery looks better. But we know Jordan Montgomery isn't going to get better than this. I say that slowly because I think there is still a contingent of fantasy analyst out there that does believe Jordan Montgomery has another gear in him. His swinging strike rates have always been high or than the output. There are a few things he does in the underlying numbers that suggest, okay, this is guys better than we've seen so far. But he's been who he is for long enough

that I think it's kind of foolhardy to hold out for that still. So I'm fine with him as a rotation stabilizer late in drafts, but I wouldn't want to invest in him beyond that. You mentioned some names, Scott. And Montgomery, SP 43, according to ATC, ahead of Dustin May, ahead of Nicola Dolo, Kodi Senga, Grace Rodriguez.

A lot of upside types there. Younger pitchers. So you can understand in the right context why you'd want to sell out for the upside rather than invest in Montgomery. Ariel, talk to me about Jesus Lazzardo because last year he burned, broke out, the velocity was up, he's got those filthy secondary pitches. Pitches for the Marlins,

so, you know, wins are probably going to be hard to come by. But in terms of skills, he was great last year, wasn't really great before that. Yeah, on a per game basis, Luzardo is fantastic, and I agree. He had 100 innings pitch last year. That was his most ever. So, question is, what do you project him to get to from 100? Does he jump up 70 innings? I don't think so. People don't jump up 70 innings. I think they traded him. I think they want just, they don't want to burn out, right?

So I think the biggest issue between the two are the innings. Montgomery is more reliable, higher floor, less chance of a collapse, I think. And he's been pitching 170 innings plus. So you're getting volume out of Montgomery. You know, so, you know,

when you get to this point of the draft, it's, it's, there's always going to be a wart on some pitcher, whether they have lower skills, whether they have lower playing time, whether they're risky health concerns. So Lazzardo has the innings playing time concern and Montgomery has no upside. It's a question of what your preference is at this point.

If you're looking for a riskier pitcher and with upside, Lizarro is the guy and vice versa for Montgomery. The other thing I want to point out, though, even though the rankings are that you mentioned somewhere between 43 and 63, that sounds like 20 spots. but if you actually calculate the dollar amount they're worth, let's say in a 15 team setting, it's like a three or four dollar difference between the two. It's not much. There's a bigger difference between 40 and 20 than there is 40 and 60. So they're actually not that dissimilar in terms of pure value.

I think it's literally just pick the picture that fits your profile of what your team and what you're looking for. So in a 12-team league, as Scott would say before, Luzardo is much, much more appealing, right? In a 15 team or deeper league, I think Montgomery is more appealing. So I think it really matters on what you're drafting for, but the values are much more similar than you think.

But I would give the edge to Montgomery because I think there's a lot more innings and 30 more innings of a decent pitcher is actually worth something. The ATC projections have Lazzardo for 147 innings. And as someone who likes Lharto quite a bit myself, I would say that's fair. That is a fair innings projection for him right around 150.

If he gets to that with the ratios and strikeouts that he showed last year, then I think he's going to outperform where he's going in ADP right now. I think that would probably be a top 30 or even top 25 starting pitcher. It remains to be seen if Lozardo could actually get to those 150 innings. Let's take one more break. Before we do that, make sure to join our FBT Facebook group. It's a fun community asking all different kinds of questions right now. It's Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball.

today go there to join up. And please make sure to follow us on TikTok if you haven't already. If you like to dabble in the TikTok world, just search FBTPod, one word, FBT pod on TikTok or go to TikTok.com slash at FBTPod. Let's take one more break and we'll be back right after this. All right, let's hit some news and notes and then we'll wrap up with a discussion on Shohei Otani. Here's what we've got going on from Tuesday's action.

We have an early contender for dumb baseball player injuries as Joe Musgrove fractured his big toe after accidentally dropping a weight on it. So Musgrove will not throw for a minimum of a couple of weeks. That's all they said, it could be two, hopefully. Opening day is in question, but Scott, I didn't lower Musgrove in my rankings because he's at the end of a tier for me. And if it turns out he misses one, two, okay, maybe three starts.

I don't think that's a reason to drop him behind Robbie Ray or Trissa McKenzie. So I just kind of left him where he is for now. Did you lower Tyler Glass now? Yeah, I did because we got a timetable there. And that was six to eight weeks. So we might not see him until May. And if that's the case, I dropped him down to SP44.

So about like 15, 17 spots in my rankings. Yeah. So Glassnow is going to miss him out a month of the regular season. I imagine it'll be pretty similar, the timetable for Joe Musgrove, because they say he won't throw for at least two weeks, right? Like that's the most optimistic. Yeah.

And then that's just starting to throw some. That's not ready to jump in a major league. I don't know. I don't know that the timetable is going to be that dissimilar between the two of them. So I moved them down. I haven't actually done it yet, but I am going to move them down to the, where did I decide it would be? just after like Chris Sale and Charlie Morton

ahead of Freddie Peralta in my rankings about a $9, $10 pitcher and a salary cap. Oh no, that's not right. We just did a head-to-head point salary caps. That's why I have those values in my mind. Obviously, starting pitchers are worth more in that format. But yeah, that's basically the range I'm talking about.

Okay, so yeah. Go ahead, Ariel. I think Musgrove is very different from the glass now injury. This is just a stupid injury, a dumb injury, as you call it with the toe. There's no effect on any of the rest of the body, really. And, you know, the big knock on Musgrove has been fatigue in the second half. So maybe this makes his second half better if he's throwing a couple less innings.

Maybe the point is that you're probably actually getting a nice little bit of an injury discount, whereas he actually might be even better further into the season. So I'm good with that. With Glass now, I mean, he's coming off. for surgery, you know, who knows, a lot more risk there. Gavin Lux was unfortunately diagnosed with a torn ACL, which will require season-ending surgery. Miguel Rojas will step in as the starting shortstop unless they make a move. But there are some trickle-down effects here, Scott.

Dave Roberts suggested that Mookie Betts might play more second base. That's not the first time we've heard that this off-season. Not sure exactly what that would mean for Miguel Vargas, who they plan to play on second base. but they've thrown it out there once again. He also said that Chris Taylor is expected to play more shortstop. So maybe playing time up for Chris Taylor and some positional versatility for Mookie Betz. Yeah, I mean, I presume Miguel Rojas is going to play the most shortstop.

Not that that's interesting for fantasy. Scott's about to die, so I'm just going to start talking right now. So, yeah, Miguel Rojas, I would expect to be the starting shortstop. He's a name to know for NL only leagues. I don't think anything shallower than that. Last year, Rojas hit 236 with six home runs and nine stolen bases. But yeah, this is good news for Chris Taylor, obviously. And it wouldn't surprise me if the Dodgers go out and make a move here.

But for now, it looks like it's going to be Rojas, and they'll kind of fill in the blanks within the roster. No. For the targets. Vargas should gain time. Yeah. I mean, that was something that I thought of too. It just raises the floor in terms of plate appearances for Miguel Vargas this season. Someone who I know Scott likes quite a bit.

And Scott, are you back? Are you a lot? No, no, no. Scott is drinking water. I'm going to move on and then Scott can come back to us. Asher's GM, Dana Brown, said Yurton Alvarez, quote, should definitely be back for opening day. He added, we feel totally confident that he'll be in games sometime midway through spring training.

Alvarez is currently dealing with left-hand soreness, something he dealt with last year as well. Tyler Glass Now, as I mentioned earlier, expected to miss six to eight weeks after he was diagnosed with a grade two oblique strain, and I mentioned I dropped him down the rankings just behind Chris Sale, Dustin May, and Jeffrey Springs. Similarly to Tyler Glass Now,

Sayas Suzuki has been diagnosed with a moderate left oblique strain. There is not a clear timetable yet. I would imagine it's at least four weeks. I mean, I don't want to speculate, but I dropped him down quite a bit too. I was pretty high on Suzuki, so I hate to see something like this, but I moved him down to Outfield 36,

just behind Mitch Hanager, Andrew Vaughn, and Nick Castellanos. I guess you can argue that he could be moved down even lower than that. Jose Miranda has been limited to DH early in camp to a sore right shoulder. Doesn't sound too serious for him. Ramon Luriano left Tuesday's game with left groin tightness. Tyrone Taylor is in jeopardy of missing the start of the season due to a right elbow sprain.

This could, could be an opening for our guy, Scott, Sal Freelick, or they'll just throw Brian Anderson in right field and just so annoying. Well, in that scenario, it would be an opening for Bryce Tarang, right? Which would also be good news. Yeah. So, yeah, sounds like somebody more interesting than Tyrone Taylor could benefit from this. Some spring training highlights from Tuesday, twin second base prospect. Edward Julian hit a double dong.

Both of those were over 106 mile per hour. Exit velocity. Kyle Bradish, someone who we mentioned last week, two weeks ago, as a deep sleeper. He's kind of an industry darling right now. His velocity was up 1 to 2 miles per hour on each of his pitches. So definitely something to monitor with Kyle Bradish. Jose Barrios' curveball spin rate was up 262. RPM compared to last year.

Okay. I mean, we need something to get excited about when it comes to Burrios. Chris Bassett's sinker was down four miles per hour. Ariel Cohen, I know. It probably makes you feel pretty good. You know, the Mets didn't bring them back. No, I don't follow in the failures of others. And it's not the season yet.

We'll see. But, yeah, I'm down on Bassett this year. I think that he's not going to see the success that he had last year. But good luck, good luck to him. Look, it's worth, you know, mentioning that in spring training, a lot of pitchers, they start off, you know, two to three miles per hour slower in their velocity. And then they build it up throughout the spring. And, you know, they normally get to where they should be, maybe a little bit below that.

But, I mean, four miles per hour, that's kind of a lot. So I want to pay attention there. Noah Cindergarde pitched well, but I saw a tweet that he was sitting 90 to 91 miles per hour with his fastball. And this comes after recent reports that his velocity was up compared to last. year. So. Well, and,

and it was last year when it was way down, it was way down with him averaging 94 on it. Yeah. So it's even further down now. Crazy. And it is, you know, it is early in spring training and maybe he'll pick up velocity.

But he was supposed to be working with drive-the-line baseball to regain velocity. Like, it's not like he was sitting on his hands this off-season. So I don't know. It's not an encouraging. sign, and I know you like him a lot as a sleeper, Frank. I was warming up to him too, but this is, this is alarming.

Yep, not great there for Noah Cindergarde. Let's wrap up with a discussion on Shohei Otani for fantasy, and just a reminder that if you play in daily lineup leagues where Otani is one player and you could reap all of his rewards, you can play him as a hitter, as a pitcher on the days that he pitches, then he is the number one overall pick. He is a cheat code in that format. Don't overthink it.

on CBS and the NFBC, Otani is one player, so you have to decide whether to use him as a hitter or a pitcher in weekly lineup leagues. And I would say 90% of the time you're using him as a hitter, but it is a great luxury to have just in case. Maybe you wind up with an amazing offense and you just need pitching every now and then.

You have that luxury to use Shohei Otani in your pitcher spots. I saw a report this offseason that Otani is going to pitch every sixth day instead of sixth game. I don't know how that exactly would work out, but if that's the case, he could have two start weeks in weeks where the Angels have seven games.

So, just going to throw it out there. Let's break them down. Hitter versus Petro Otani. The hitter. Last year, he hit 273, 34 homers, 90 runs, 95 RBI, 11 steals. It's crazy to say,

but he actually declined in all of his categories except for batting average from the year prior in 2021. He did lower the strikeout rate by a lot. He went from 29.6% to 24%. Still crushed the ball. And Otani was one of those hitters last year, Scott, that got off to a slow start from May 1st on, a 901 OPS for Shohei Otani. What are your expectations for the hitter, Otani here in a contract year? I think he could get closer to his 2021 numbers than what we saw last year. I mean, last year was good enough to,

justify a late 1st round pick in 5 by 5 scoring. But if he, he's certainly fast enough to double his steals total from 11 to over 20. We've seen him do it before. It's only going to be easier to steal bases this year, as we've pointed out many times. So I would still think of him as a benefit in that category, even though his total was overwhelming. And yeah, the home runs. How many did hit in 2021?

was it like 46? Forty-six. 46. Okay. And so he was down to 34 last year. It's hard. It became harder from 2021 to 22 to hit home runs. So 34 in last year doesn't mean the same as 34 two years ago.

I think that's worth pointing out. But just given quality of contact for Shohei Otani and the fact he was a hundredth percentile in max exit velocity, 99th percentile and X-Lug. Yeah, it's still within his capabilities of hitting 40 home runs, and I think there's a good chance that happens again. The big problem, as you've experienced yourself a couple times, Frank, is it makes for such a difficult build at a time when position scarcity is becoming a major issue again,

filling, using your first pick on somebody you could only use a DH and not an outfielder, which becomes very scarce, or a third basement, which becomes very scarce. I can't see myself doing it, to be honest, even if the numbers warrant it. Yeah, and it's increasingly harder in a deeper league. So 15-team Roto, these great fantasy baseball invitation on drafts that we're doing,

I had the 11th pick. I wasn't expecting Otani to be there. I was kind of hoping somebody else would take him, so I didn't have the decision to make, and I wound up taking him. And, you know, I'm eight picks in, and don't really love the team. We did one other mock draft this off-season,

Scott where it was a 15 team roto and I took Otani there to try it out and I didn't really like the team. So, you know, it's shame on me because I didn't learn from my mistakes, but we'll see the way the team turns out. He's obviously an awesome player, but for fantasy purposes, you are somewhat limited because you can only use him in your utility spot. If you play on Yahoo, there's two different players. It's a hitter Otani and a pitcher Otani. However you feel about that, we'll save that for another day. But just focusing on the pitcher Otani, I mean, he was amazing. last year. 2.33 ERA

101 whip, 11.87K per 9, 14.9% swinging strike rate among starting pitchers with at least 160 innings last year. Third and FIP, second in K per 9, first in K minus walk rate, fifth in swinging strike rate. If you're just looking at our starting pitcher

ranks, Scott has Otani at SP 16, I have him at 13, and Chris has him at SP10. So Ariel, I'll throw the pitcher your way, what are your thoughts this upcoming season? Again, in a contract year, I wonder if maybe he just pushes a little bit further and we can get to like 175 or 180 innings this year. He was so good as a pitcher last year that, you know, up until last year, you know, you always played Otani as, well, you know, if you only have to play one of them, then obviously you're

going to play the hitter unless there's a two-star week, right? But I don't know. I think that if you have Otani, you might be playing him a much hard. percentage of the time as a pitcher. Like, you know, if there's even one good matchup, I can see you actually doing it. He increased his strikeout rate from 30 to almost 34% last year. His walks went down. I mean, he was a 200 plus strikeout pitcher. And he only pitched 166 innings.

He was enormous on a per game basis. He was fantastic. The ERA 2.3. I think that he's just, you know, he's easily the most complete player in the game and one of the most awesome things to watch in a long time here. And if you rostered him just as a pitcher, you'd be totally happy with the results. The problem, of course, is that in the leagues that you're mentioning, he's too expensive to go as that pitcher because you're buying him for more of the hitter value, right?

And as Scott said, the problem is, well, you're blocking your utility spot right away. It makes it harder to build a roster around it because it might be a nice player later you want to get it. Uh-oh, well, I got Otani there. So he's a difficult person to roster. And I just want to add one more thing. He is far more risky than you think. Because he plays both hitter and pitcher, the health risk is much more. It's not double.

I'm not going to say it's double, but it's a lot more than you think. If he pulls an oblique as a hitter, all his pitcher stats get wiped out and vice versa. And he's on the field more. We've never seen this kind of two-way player. So we can't just say, well, he's done it in Japan, so he's going to be good. He's a rock. I don't know. Injuries are up so much.

60% of all of baseball goes on the IL at some point. Just because he's been not injured in the last year or two, I think the risk is there. So for the risk alone, I would probably demote him out of the first round. Still fantastic player. I love watching him, but for a fantasy purpose, I think he's too difficult and more risky than you think. I agree with you wholeheartedly in terms of the risk. The counterpoint that I would present is that the past two years, he has played 157 and 158 games. So he's managed to stay healthy. It doesn't mean that he will be healthy moving forward, but at least the past two years, he's been really healthy. I mean, we're talking he's only missed a total of nine games over the past two seasons. Speaking of using him as a pitcher,

the Angels open up against the Oakland A's in Oakland, and that's like a short weekend kind of series. If you have Otani, you're probably using him as a pitcher the first week of the season, if we're being honest. What's the percentage of the time you think this year that if you roster Otani, well, you're rostering Otani in TGFBI, right? Like what percentage of the time he's going to be a hitter versus pitcher? Is it going to be like 70-30?

I don't know. I mean, that is a great question, and we're about to find out because he's been a good pitcher before. He was never as good as he was last year. So if he is that pitcher again, I think I'm going to consider it more than I ever have. I had him two years ago as like a round 11 pick, and he was awesome.

I never took him out as a hitter. But I think it's probably going to be closer to at least 7525 in favor of using him as a hitter. Yeah, I think the way... Sorry. I think it's going to end up being less than you think. And like I wish you could use. him more as a pitcher because he's a fantastic pitcher.

I mean, he's a Cy Young contender, but he is a first-round caliber bat, even with the most unfavorable eligibility of all. And at a time when hitting is becoming harder to find relative to pitching, unless you just ended up with a really stacked lineup and a lot of deficiencies on your pitching staff, first of all, you know, you should probably consider trading, Shohei Otani, if that's the case.

But if you don't wind up in that situation, I think you're just going to need the hitting stats so much more. And they're going to be relative to other hitters better. I mean, if you have a top three pitcher in FP1, 2, or 3, and you have Otani as a hitter, and they get injured, I mean, the waiver wire, especially in a deeper league, is so awful for pitchers. And because of the new DH and the NL, there's actually a little bit more richer hitter, you know, you might say, you know what, let's use him as a pitcher. for the next couple of weeks while my pitcher, my SP2 is out.

And, you know, I'll pick whoever to fill in the blanks on the hitter side. Otherwise, I have to pick up some terrible Eric Fetty type and risk having my ERA done. So it might actually result that you're going to play more pitching because of injury, because of its flexibility. So I agree with you that, you know, all things being considered, nobody gets hurt. You're going to play him as a hitter most of the time. but I'm just thinking about what could happen. I think it's going to be more often than you think that you're going to have Otani the pitcher,

which is not a bad thing, by the way. He's pretty good. Or maybe if you're just a dingbat like me and you didn't draft enough pitching, you might have backed yourself into a wall of playing Otani as a pitcher at this point. He is Ariel Cohen, the mastermind behind the ATC projections. Make sure to follow him on Twitter at ATCNY.

Make sure to listen to his podcast, Beat the Shift as well. Ariel, thanks as always. always, man. Appreciate you coming on. Oh, it was great to talk to you guys and happy draft season. Yeah, happy draft season indeed. Again, if anyone's out in Florida this weekend, if you're down there for first pitch, come hang out. Say hello to Ariel and myself and we'll be happy to hang out. For Scott and Ariel, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.