Fantasy Baseball Today - Balanced MLB Schedule, Advanced Metrics & Mailbag Questions! (1/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 16, 2023

How might the balanced MLB schedule affect Fantasy Baseball (2:10)? Let's jump in to your mailbag questions, starting with Spencer Strider vs. Justin Verlander (10:37). ... Spencer Strider or Michael Harris as a keeper (18:00)? ... What's the right way to value players in a salary cap/auction league (20:32)? ... Ezequiel Tover or Ricky Tiedemann (26:00)? ... Let's explain some advanced metrics (30:20). ... How should you spend your finances in a keeper league (40:26)? ... We wrap up with a first-year player draft question (50:50). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, January 16th, Martin Luther King Jr. Day. I am Frank Sample, joined once again by Scott White and Chris Towers today on the show. have not talked about the balanced schedule yet at all and what it might mean for fantasy baseball.

It might not matter at all. But I found a few things. I'm going to bring it up to these guys and they'll let me know if it actually means anything. We also have a bunch of your mailbag questions, so continue to send those in. Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I if you want to email us or you could drop a question in an Apple podcast rating and review. Scott, if all goes well, sneak peek, we're recording this in advance. We are meeting today. We're at actually meeting today in person on January 16. Yeah. Yeah. I haven't finalized those plans yet, but hopefully

that's the case. Scott, you sound thrilled. I am thrilled. I am. I sent Scott a YouTube comment. Someone said we should do a show from Scott's living room and that the internet would break if that happened. It would. It probably would. I don't know that that's going to happen. I don't know. When you're recording next week, you should have Scott recording and you, Frank, in the background, just moving stuff in the back.

Recreate one of our favorite memories. Yes. Yes. For those who don't know, there was a live podcast where there were movers just behind Scott moving a bunch of stuff around. And I wasn't around for that, but it sounds like it was hilarious. These guys are going to be here doing live streams Tuesday and Wednesday, tomorrow and Wednesday, from 3 to 4 p.m. Eastern Time.

So who knows, you know, if I'm in the neighborhood, maybe I'll just knock on the door and just kind of stroll on in and start moving stuff around. We'll see what happens. Let's jump right in. and take a look at this balanced schedule. What does this mean exactly? For the first time in MLB history, every team will face each other

in at least one series this upcoming season. Opening day is on March 30th. The season ends on October 1st. The All-Star game is set for July 11th. Teams will face their division rivals far less now than in years past. 52 total games in 2023. That is down from 76 games last season.

So instead of facing, year division rival 19 times each, that will now be 13 times per season. As a result, interleague play will go from 20 games each to 46 total games per team. What might this mean for fantasy baseball? Well, taking a look, a gander, the ALE East and the NL East were the toughest divisions last year by run differential. So this should mean that it's a boost to the pitchers within those divisions because they won't have to face each other as much. It's not as simple as that. Again, it's, we're kind of parsing through these things and trying to figure it out, much like the rule changes that we talked about. I don't know which players will specifically be affected by

this, but Scott, that was my early takeaway is that AL and NLE East are tough divisions. If you're not pitching within those divisions as much, theoretically, you should be facing weaker teams, and that should be good for the pitchers. Yeah, I mean, they were the toughest divisions last year. I honestly, I don't think this means a lot for the fantasy game. I mean, you're saying, okay, so instead of facing your division rival 19 times, it'll be 13 times. So that's one series at each location that's being lost.

So if you want to go look at the perspective, okay, NLS teams other than the Rockies will have one less series at Coors Field. Okay. That doesn't change the way I'm going to approach any of their players. And like in the grand scheme of 162 game season, I don't think, I don't think this is going to be noticeable for individual player performances. Yeah, I mean, it could be something that's just around the margins, right? You know, maybe Garrick-Col instead of having a 3.50 ERA,

he's, you know, back down to a 3.3 or 3.25. That's just an example. but I don't think these things are going to be drastic changes, but it could just change things slightly around the margins. And I'm happy you brought up the NL West and missing out on an extra series in Corse Field because this might not sound like a lot. But Mani Machado, C.J. Cron and Juan Soto each hit three home runs in Corris Field last season.

They're still going to play their, you know, I guess it's going to be six games, six or seven games in Corse Field, but they're losing out on a series. Jake Cronowardt hit 405 with a 1203 OPS, in 48 plate appearances, that's actually a decent amount. I don't know how much that takes off. Maybe it's like five to ten points in batting average, but Jake Cronomworth was already not a great batting average contributor anyway.

NL West hitters who had an OPS over 900 at Corus Field last season, Juan Soto, Jake McArthur, Jake Cronoworth, Christian Walker, Tyro Ostrada, Mike Estremski, Mani Machado, and Will Smith. Chris, again, I could be reaching here. Is there anything? Do you think this matters at all for fantasy baseball? It shouldn't change how you draft.

I don't think there's like there will be some impact. You know, there's always some player who has a massive series at courts field. It happens several times a year. And, you know, it becomes slightly less likely for the Padres, Dodgers, Diamondbacks. I always forget. There's one other team in the NL West, right? Who am I forgetting? I didn't.

But like what you're saying, though, is almost like a Schrodinger's cat situation, right? like where in this alternate reality, some player would have had a huge series at course field. Now he doesn't have. Right, right, right. Good luck. Good luck figuring out who that was. To look in the past and say, well, maybe Jay Kronoward would have been a little less valuable because he didn't get that extra.

But like who that will be. And because guys go to course field and go one for 10 over the course of a series. You know, that happens too. So it's it'll matter. It's just how what the. impact will be in the future is pretty much impossible to say. I don't think it should impact your your draft strategy much whatsoever. It does I think make there's some weird schedule things like the Yankees open the season against the giants.

That's weird. Yeah. Yeah. Like it's just going to take some getting used to like from a from like the perspective of my brain, the which is used to the. But like like as far as as a baseball fan. Yeah. It certainly changes the flow of the season. But I like it.

I'm a fan of every team. I think it's cool that every team's going to have an opportunity to face every other team. And your chances of seeing a given player at your team's home stadium are increased. I like that. Don't love that the Yankees are playing at Miami this year. It would have been nice to see the Marlins up here in an extra series. But, you know, I'll live with that. I guess they only get three series at the old city field.

now, but yeah, I think it's great. I'm a fan. I just don't, I don't think it makes much of an impact on the, uh, the fantasy outcomes. So I'm actually going down at Scott's neck of the woods. When you're listening to this, I'm already there. But, uh, the point is, I'm going to look at condos and stuff and seeing, all right, is this something I would want to do? Do I want to make this move to Fort Lauderdale? Uh, I already looked at the, the Marlin schedule to see when the Yankees are in town. So it's in, it's in mid-August. August, yeah. I mean, so there's a real chance that I'll be at that game, but, uh, No, no, no, we'll see what happens. I guess this probably doesn't matter to you guys either,

but I'll just bring it up because it's something else that I wrote down here. The AL and NL Central teams, I think typically we've looked to target their pitchers or, you know, just thinking about it like Corbyn Burns, hey, favorable schedule, he pitches in the NL Central, or for the AL Central teams who faced, you know, the twins or the guardians or the royals, for that matter. It's something that we have targeted in years past, so I'm guessing overall this might not matter much,

but maybe it's a slight downgrade to those. certainly matters more on a divisional scale than like individual team. Like I think that that there's likely to be more of an impact on the AL and NL Central teams who generally face weaker schedules, at least in the recent past, than there is for like the NLS teams who lose that one series at D at course field just because it's one series versus, you know, 15% of the schedule or whatever it works out to be. So, you know, I do think there's some impact there. But again, it's it shouldn't be enough to change. Like this isn't like the COVID season, right? Where they only faced NL and AL only central team or AL and L central teams. And there was a huge impact.

Like we saw pitchers in that, in those divisions got a real boost. It's not nearly as dramatic as that. We're talking about, you know, losing 15% of your games or whatever it is versus your own division and adding, you know, teams from every division. So I think if anything, it balances the schedule and makes it less likely that the division that you play in is going to have an impact on a player's outcome. Never forget, Kent and Maeda 2020. Great schedule. Oh, Zach Plesack. How could we forget Zach Plessack? I mean, oh, my gosh. Trevor Bauer had like a 190 ERA that year. Like he won the Siam. Almost, I'm not going to say entirely because of it. But like that was a legitimate thing with the NL and AL and AL Central is like, Yeah, I think Zach Plezac had eight starts and four of them were against the Royals or something weird like that. Yeah, I don't want to pick on the AL Central, but the Cleveland Guardians won the AL Central in 2022 with a run differential of plus 64, which by my estimation right now is by far the lowest of any division winner in baseball last season. So again, just to put that in perspective.

All right, so balance schedule, that's what you need to know about it. I think it's more so from a baseball perspective than from a fantasy baseball perspective. but just a few things that I noticed and pointed out there for you. Let's get into some listener questions. Again, you could always email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, or you could leave a question

in an Apple podcast rating and review. This one is from Vince. An opponent in my league, Dynasty, 12 teams, head-to-head points, is offering me Justin Verlander for Spencer Strider. Spencer Shrider will cost me $20 this year. We have a $1,000 auction budget for the draft and in-season pickups.

Verlander will cost $40 this year. Keepers move up in $20 tiers year over year. I think Verlander is the more valuable pitcher right now. Also full disclosure, I'm a diehard Mets fan. However, I would hate to miss out on four to five years worth of Strider being an ace for a cheaper price. Yeah. I mean, even if they were the same price,

because it's a Dynasty League, I think you stick with Strider over Verlander. Interestingly enough, I have Dynasty Rer. rankings up 150 on the site. So you might want to check those out as you're weighing these decisions. It's presuming equal cost for everybody, which isn't the case here. But Spencer Strider is 33rd in those rankings.

And Justin Verlander is 70th, 70. In this instance, when you're talking about like 4% of your budget versus 2% of your budget, yes, acknowledging that you need money for in-season pickups. Like that's, I would say that's fairly even value. Like, Verlander costs twice as much, but it's such a small number that, you know, I think it's, the cost shouldn't make that big of a difference there. But I think it still makes Strider the better option. And for what it's worth, look, Strider's much, much younger than Verlander.

On a per inning basis, Spencer Strider was the second best pitcher in baseball behind Jacob de Grom last year. So he should be really good. He probably won't throw as many innings as someone like Verlander, but Spencer Shrider should be awesome when he's on the mound. there's a lot more risk that you get relatively nothing out of Strider than Verlander. Like Verlander is a proven ace who, you know, outside of the Tommy John surgery has been a guy who gives you 200 innings pretty much every single season. Spencer Strider hasn't topped 100 innings once in his life. So, you know, I think there's there's real risk that Strider, like, Strider's still in the age and experience range where like if he needed Tommy John surgery, I'm not saying I hope it happens. I hope it doesn't, but like, generally speaking, 24-year-olds who throw 98 miles an hour,

there's a lot of injury risk with those types of guys who haven't proven it. Putting Vince's question aside, because we haven't had you on the podcast much in the past few months, Chris. Our rankings are all about to come out basically right around the time the podcast is airing. Where do you have Justin Verlander ranked, Chris, among starting pitchers? Let me see. Because you're talking about how safe he is, I agree, but I seem to be on an island in terms of ranking him number one at starting. He's number four for me.

Okay, so still really high because he's 80. Actually, number three, I guess, because I haven't. Shohay Otani, when I uploaded it, he moves up because of his overall ranking, but not at starting pitcher. Yeah, you're not going to, if you're drafting it's number three. Strider is number 13 right now, although that's, that's one that's certainly subject to, to debate. and I could see moving, probably not up.

I think that there's a chance I might move him down, but I do have Verlander quite a bit higher. I'm pleased to hear it because the consensus seems to have Justin Verlander outside the top 10, and I've heard, we've had some people on who had him barely inside the top 20. And look, I'm probably not drafting the number one pitcher

no matter who it is, but... I mean, I guess the case would be that he didn't throw that many innings last season, that his strikeout rate was relatively low relative to like only 185 strikeouts 9.5k per 9. A lot of, you know, inflated ERA there. So I could see the case against him, but I don't know. I don't think there's too much to be concerned about there. It's just maybe there's lower, there's less upside with him than there is someone like

Garrett Cole or certainly Corbyn Burns. I think it's just ageism, personally. It could be. I mean, I think there was a slight decline in the skills that we've seen in years past. The swinging strike rate was lower. The K-minus walk rate is not where it has been, you know, in prime Justin Verlander years. But he just won the AL-Sai Young and he had a sub-2 ERA. So let the majors in ERA, let the majors in whip. And like the stuff itself, it's not like he lost three miles per hour on his fastball or anything or even one mile per hour on his fastball. So I think he's fine. I have Verlander at six. So I'm a little bit lower. than you guys, but I think still higher than consensus. I have Strider exactly at 13, too, so high five, Chris. We have the same ranking there. Let's move over to MVS. That's a FFT live stream for those who listen or watch both of these contents here.

From Mario 12 team auction, $260 budget. Points League with middle infielders and corner infielders. Keep six of these players. Corey Seeger for 20 bucks. Shane O. Mac. I'll get back to Shane O'Mack. Carl Sordan, $10, Wanderfranco for $9, Stephen Kwan for $8, Zach Allen,

7, O'Neill Cruz, 5, Spencer Strider for one, Nate Lowe for one. More context, I also have three minor leaguers that are free to keep until active or lose rookie eligibility. Matt Mervis, parentheses, thank you, Scott White, Tristan Kossis and Josh Young.

Okay, let's see. So this is a points league, that's important context. I think Strider at a dollar is a slam dunk. Yep. So I don't want to go pitching crazy this year, but like just glancing through cost-benefit. They're all really good values.

I think McClanahan, Rodon, at $11 and $10 respectively are pretty easy calls. Gallon. Gallon at seven, yeah. So how many we up to? That's four. So that brings you to $29 on four pitchers, which like the thing about,

that is you could just not draft another pitcher or, you know, not invest much in pitcher otherwise. And you should be pretty good, right? Like, you've got two, three guys who are projected as borderline SP ones between Rodon, McClan-McKlanahan and Rodon, or Rodon Strider and McClanahan. And then Gallon is, what, an SP3? So, like, that's a, that's a pretty great pitching staff already. So, you know, I think there are volume concerns in a points league with all three of those guys, but not enough that I wouldn't keep them. Because it's a points league, I prefer Wander Franco for nine instead of O'Neill Cruz for five. And I think, I mean, you could keep both since there's a middle infield spot, but I think I also prefer Corey Seeger for 20 rather than

O'Neill's Cruz for five since it's a points league. But that, I could be talked out of that one. Yeah, I think that's fine. I think either way, you're going with a Texas Ranger for that six spot. I like Nate Lowe for a dollar or two. You know, he's probably going to go for, I don't know, $10 to $12 in a 12-team auction like that. So you get some savings there. I agree the four pitchers, Wanda Franco. I would go Nate Lowe. Sounds like these two like Corey Seeger.

From Jason in a 10-team, three outfielder, head-to-head categories league with OBP. Dynasty League with five keepers, no contract, so you can keep for life. Juan Soto, Mike Trout, Mani Machado are locked in. Need to decide on two of the four below. Corbin, Burns, Spencer Shrider, Michael Harris, and Corbyn Carroll.

Should I go with pitchers to give me an advantage in strikeouts, or should I keep the young bats because of the keep for life factor and their power slash speed upside? Are the pitchers easier to replace? You keep Michael Harris and Corbyn Burns. Yeah, I think that's the way I'd go. Even with OBP, with Michael Harris? Yeah, I mean, that is a wrinkle that does hurt Michael Harris in a way.

But to be fair, you've already have, So you already have Soto and Mike Trout. Are arguably two of the best OBP guys out there. So you're probably okay. Like you're going to have to sacrifice somewhere. And, you know, it comes down to, I think, Strider versus Harris. And I have concerns about, you know, whether what Harris did last season was for real and whether there's, you know, the long term viability of it. But I also have those same concerns about Strider, who is also a young pitcher.

So I just think, you know, all else being equal. and I think Harris versus Strider is pretty close to being equal, if not tilted towards strider in the short term, or tilted toward Harris. I think you just take the young position player. Yeah, I think that's fair. And then you have Corbin Burns as your ace, and once the draft actually starts up,

you have four hitters locked in. Your outfield is good to go, so you don't have to worry about that, which, frankly, it's a pretty rough position this year. Outfield and third base locked in with Manny Machado there, so that's real nice. Yeah, that's true. And then, you know, once this draft starts up,

You can pick up your SP2, 3, whatever, and I think you're good to go. So I agree with these guys. I would go with Corbyn Burns and Michael Harris. Just a reminder that I'll be out for the next two days. You'll get an early rankings debate and a roto mock draft recap from Scott, Chris Towers, and Chris Welsh over the next two days. And our 2023 rankings and salary cap values will be live on the site tomorrow when you're listening to this. January 17th, go to CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball slash rankings.

Roto, head-to-head points, A-L-only, N-O-only, you name it. It will be live on the site, Tuesday, January 17th. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Let's jump back into your mailbag questions. This one is from Thai. I play in a 5-by-5 head-to-head 12-te-team league. We are allowed to keep six players and have a budget of $260. I have a few options and was curious to get your thoughts.

on the last few keepers. Prices increase by $3 each year. You can keep a player as long as you want. My initial thought would be to keep Schwabber, Brandon Woodruff, and Shane O. Mac, Shane McClanahan. However, with the higher price tag of those players, I could go cheaper and hold on to a Josh Young

or Tristan McKenzie type. So definitely keeping Pete Alonzo for 19, Bobby Witt Jr. for 13, Sandy Alcounter for 23. The other options, Schwerber for 21, Josh Young for five bucks, Brandon Woodruff for 23, Shane McClain for 24,

Nick Lodolo for 7, and Tristan McKenzie for 15. Yeah, I don't think the discount there between like a McKinsey at 15 and a McClanahan at 24 is enough to justify keeping the cheaper player. I think you have the right idea. The discount is enough for the three studlier players,

Schwabber Woodruff, and McClanahan. That even though you'll probably go into the draft with less available dollars than some other teams. The quality of the players makes it worth it. You know, I'm thinking about it from a 12-team head-to-categories perspective, these are probably close to the prices that these players are going to go for. Kyle Shorebatt, I mean, you know, he could be a little bit more expensive at $21. Woodruff at 23, Shane McClan.

Maybe McClainan's closer to like a $30 pitcher. But Nick Ladolo at 7. Ladolo at 7 kind of stands out too. I know he's, you know, a popular early breakout. Lodillo at 7 seems like about what he'll actually go for. I mean, I think he's probably more of like a 10 to 15 guy, but maybe I'm wrong about that. As the, what is he outside, he's outside the top 40 starting pitchers for me. I can't.

So you guys have actually put together your values, and I haven't, but just from past experience with them. And of course, your distribution of dollars may vary. Well, that's always the case in any keeper or dynasty league, because, Pete Alonzo's not going to go for 19. Bobby Witt's not going to go for 13. Those are all probably $30 players. And you've got them for $55 total or whatever. So extra dollars are out there.

Yeah, there's always inflation. Because everybody's keeping their discounted players. Yeah. Right. There's always inflation in the dynasty or Keeper League draft. And so that's the thing you have to keep in mind is that whether it's a snake draft, whether it's a salary cap draft, you're always going to have, because there's fewer dollars going into the draft

allocated to the very, very good players typically. That's usually he's going to be kept. You're going to see the middle class go higher. I have Lodolo for, he's like a $10 player for me right now. So I think like $7 is a fine value, but it's not a steal by any means, especially given the likely inflation. I think he'll go for around 10.

So I don't think that's a huge discount. either way. I think in this scenario, you just take the best players. You've got the, you've got the flexibility to do that because you've got, again, Alonzo, Witt and Alcounter for $55 total. It brings you to keeping Schwerber, Woodruff, and McClanahan, it brings you to like 126 or 127 total. That's probably $160 worth of players. So you still come out ahead. And a little bit of auction draft strategy as well. I typically like to live in this. area, you know, sub-30% dollar players. I don't typically like to spend up unless, you know, that's what the draft room is telling me. If everyone's, you know, doesn't want to spend up,

then you're probably getting those guys for values as well. I like to live in this range. And I do stand corrected because I have Nick Lodolo as a $9 pitcher. So good job on you, Scottie. Steamer has Nick Lodolo as an $11 pitcher. So he's right around that range. And I actually have Woodruff as a $29 pitcher. So that's coming at a pretty good value for you this upcoming season. Do you know if steamers for 12 team, calibrated for a 12 team or a 15 team? So you can set it up either way. If you go to Fangraphs.com, they have an auction calculator, and you can set it up for 12 or 15s. The numbers that I'm looking at right now are for 12 team leagues, so. Interesting. Okay. Has Lodolo as an $11 player, and they have Woodruff as,

uh, actually a $17 player. So, but I think we, we being people who write for CBS tend to, um, to put a what's the word I'm looking for we we prioritize the high end guys we're less cautious so so our our highest players we tend to

give a higher value to than then maybe more of a projection system what yeah I mean you look at the projection system they've got like steamer has Aaron Judge as a $37 player yeah he's not going to go for 37 in any $260. Like that's just not

typically how it works. The best players are going to go at least 40, usually more like 50. Yep. And I have Aaron Judge at $40 in a mixed roto league as well in a 12 team league. And again, if you really want him, he's probably going to push something like 45. So just keep that in mind. Yeah, that's where I have the top players. I have the top five in the 44 range. Yeah. All right. Let's move on to our next

question. This one's from Colin. Struggling with which keepers I should keep in my minor league keeper spots. Pick three of these. Who, prospects. Yeah. Which if... Top 100 prospects is out, baby. If you listen last week, we did an extensive breakdown. We jumped all around Scott's Top 100 prospects,

and that article is live on the site. So make sure to check it out as well. Pick three of these names, Dre Jameson, Miguel Vargas, Jordan Walker, Matt Mervis, Ezekiel Tovar, and Ricky Teeteman. Also, I currently have Gunner Henderson. I have Riley Green in a keeper spot and Gunner in a minor league spot, but have considered keeping Gunner in the Major League spot.

if you think one of those guys should be kept over Riley Green. So I guess we'll just throw him in that conversation as well, Scott. So I'm going to add him to the list here and choose three of those, including Riley Green. Okay, so Jordan Walker is my number three prospect. Miguel Vargas is my number nine prospect. And I believe my third highest on this list is Ezekiel Tovar, which is 18. So do I want to keep Riley Green, who I had as a top five prospect last year, over Ezekiel Tovar, who I have number 18 this year? They have changed the dimensions in Camerica Park long overdue in a way that should benefit hitters, though it's not a drastic change.

It can help. Riley Green was pretty disappointing, obviously, as a rookie. That's the only reason it's in doubt. I think I would promote I think I would keep Riley Green over Tovar but it is a close call and if you guys disagree I'd love to hear your arguments

Scott do you have your list open right in front of you right now Top 100 yeah where do you have Ricky Teetam in on that list 26 and Tovar is 18 18 so it's pretty close yeah I mean and that's close enough

that like if you just really love T-Dateman You really want a pitcher. You don't have a lot of faith in Tovar. You think maybe he's being inflated because of where he's going to play his home games. Colorado, obviously, for those who don't know. Then, okay. It's close enough that I think personal preference is a fine reason to go Teetamon instead of Tovar. And I wouldn't even object that much if you wanted to go Matt Mervis,

who I have outside the top 40. And like, that's kind of, I'm not more of as 40-first. So we're talking about 18 for Tovar, 41st for Matt Mervis. I mean, it seems like a big gap, but given the hundreds of prospects out there, like 23 spots, you know, like I wouldn't, I wouldn't consider Jordan Walker number three in Matt Mervis on more or less equal footing. But I think Tovar and Mervis are closer than those 23 spots. might suggest. I think I would just go with Riley Green. All right.

Yeah, so a couple different answers there. And Riley Green, some underlying good data for him. His max exit velocity was very good last year. He hit the ball hard. He hit the ball on the ground way too much. And that wasn't really an issue for him in the minor. So I think if you can get that launch angle up, the changes in dimensions to Comerica Park.

There is an argument for Riley Green as well. But sounds like Scott's going tovar. I'm actually going to go Ricky Teeteman, who was by some people, the breakout mine. minor league pitcher last season, and there's a lot of hype around him. So I would go with him, but if you want a position player, I think you could choose any of those other ones. We didn't get a chance to talk about it because there were so many prospects to talk about, but we did talk about Andrew Painter. Andrew Painter, Marlins' prospect Yuri Perez, and

Ricky Teetaman, were three pitchers who made it to AA as 19-year-olds last year, which is not something you see very often. They're all very tall. They all throw a ton of strikes despite being tall and it's easy to get excited about Tita, man. I think, you know, he threw only 78 and two-thirds inning, so you've got to worry with all pitching prospects, like, how is he going to be able to hold up physically? Right. But his size, I think, makes it more likely that he will. All right, let's move on to our next question from Alex. I am a longtime FBT listener, but I rarely able to listen to the entirety of every episode, so I apologize if this is something that you typically cover at some point during the season. Your discussion of advanced metrics is one of the

most useful parts of the show, but sometimes it is difficult to contextualize some of the less common statistics without benchmarks or statistical ranges for what makes a player fringe, useful, elite, etc. Would it be possible to include a segment in one of the preseason shows discussing approximate benchmarks for advanced metrics that you find particularly useful in evaluating players. He mentioned OPS, which is kind of an archaic stat, I guess, at this point. I still like using OPS. I mean, other people will use Wobah or WADA Runk to Create a Plus as like an all-encompassing offensive statistic. I still like OPS. I think it's OPS still

gets you most of the way there, right? Like you sort the OPS rankings versus the Woba rankings. They're going to be more or less the same. You know, like OPS overweights slugging percentage relative to on base percentage, but you know, even that. is generally speaking, the best players are going to be the best players. It's language everybody understands. And it's close enough. That's always the thing for me is that you, this is when I was an editor, I would always tell

writers like communicate with your audience in a language that they understand. And OPS is generally more understood than Wobo, although we're, you know, the more you use Woba, the more. And Woba is calculated so that it like tends to be the average Wobah is very close to the average on base percentage. That's typically how it's calculated or I don't know what the right word there would be. But yeah, that's so if you know what a good op on base percentages, you generally know what a good Wobah is. Yeah. And Wobah and WADA Runs Creata Plus, they are both weighted averages. So I think it's they take ballpark and environment into account, right? I think WRC plus does.

I don't think Woba does. Okay. So again, these are just like all encompassing statistics. They take it one step further. I like to use OPS still because again, I think most listeners are familiar with that. Don't want to alienate people too much. I know we throw out a bunch of stats all the time, but usually I think it's useful and it's necessary for, you know, making a point about a certain player. If you're talking about, I wanted to mention the league averages for those, by the way. OPS is 706. I think typically if you're like an 800 OPS bad or better, like you're a pretty good hitter and then, you know, once you get 850 plus, you know, approaching 900, you know, that's an elite level hitter. So just something to keep in mind. And the more we talk about it,

I think the more you'll just kind of pick up context clues and like, all right, you could figure out which hitters are the best and what their OPSs are once we're talking about it. League average Wobah is 310 and league average weighted runs created plus is 100 on the dot. You're talking about statcast data, which again, we cite stackass data a lot. And I think we do a good job of mentioning percentiles. So if we say, hey, this guy is a 93 mile per hour average exit velocity, we'll also tell you that's, you know, 90th percentile.

So that could tell you just very obviously how good that ranking is. But league average for these statistics that we cite often, average exit velocity, 88.6 miles per hour, league average. Seven and a half percent barrel rate. That's how often a hitter is barreling a batted ball. And then hard hit rate,

is 38.2%. Again, those are league average. You know, if you get up over double digit barrel rate, I think that's when, you know, we kind of start to take you seriously as a power hitter. And then hard hit rate, you know, anything 45 to 50% or better is you're generally in a pretty good range there. And barrel rate is barrels are, it's hard to define easily, but it basically just, it's like a good line drive or like a very well struck ball. It's a ball that tends to have a very high range of outcomes, I think is the best way to describe it. Yeah, it meets certain threshold.

So it'll be a certain, I think it's between 15 and 25 degree launch angle. But depending on the exit velocity, the launch angle can widen. So it's, you know. Those are the most optimal hit baseball. So you want your hitters barreling up the ball as often as they possibly could. For pitching, we cite a bunch of different things, but I know some places have moved to. strikeout percentage over K per 9, and I get it.

There's a legitimate argument for that. I think we still kind of talk about both of them, but 8.5K per 9 was league average in 2022. ERA was 3.97. It was the same for FIP and XFIP, and again, those are ERA estimators. It takes into account different factors, things that aren't in the control of a pitcher.

So it basically tells you what an ERA should be based on what a pitcher can control FIP and XFIP. 11.2% swinging strike rate. that was league average. And then K-minus walk rate, 14.3%. So as you approach 20% K-minus walk, that's a really good mark. Anything, you know, 12%, 13% are better on swinging strike rate. I think that's something we typically like to see in our pitchers as well, Scott.

Yeah, it is. And if I could go on a little tangent here, you and I, Frank, were talking after a podcast recently. And we were talking about how in recent years I've, for, I've made Exfip my ERA estimator of choice, and that's the one I've cited most often. But that was during the time of the juice ball era where all fly balls hit were dangerous. And that's kind of what X-FIP does, is it treats, this is a rough way of putting it, but it treats every fly-ball like a home run. So I thought it made sense to do it, to do it that way during the era where that was kind of true.

I'm thinking XERA during the era we're entering in now. I'm feeling like that's the one that I'm most comfortable with. So you may hear me citing that one more often. That is the stat cast ERA estimator that is more gauging the damage that every batted ball would do. And factoring and strikeout and stuff too. But it's not the traditional these things are out of a pitcher's control. that's what we're going to value more. It's not that kind of metric.

So I'm not totally sold on that, but I guess I'm just saying I'm probably going to be citing X-FIP less. Well, and just to paint the picture a little more. So FIP, it takes the amount of home runs that a player, that a pitcher gave up. FIP is basically just strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed. X-FIP assumes all pitchers have a, allow the same number of fly balls to become home runs.

Yeah. which we know isn't true based on park factors and skill set. And then XERA takes into account quality of contact more on a more granular level. So it basically does strikeouts and walks and then stat casts various expected batting average and those stats. And so, you know, they're all trying to identify what a pitcher skill level is and they're all more predictive for the following year than ERA on its own will be. And there's also Sierra and there's also baseball prospectuses DRA, and there's, which is deserved run average. And then there's all kinds of other things.

And I find it all very interesting because they're all iterations on FIP in a lot of ways. FIP was kind of the first one back in like the early 2000s that really challenged the way we think about pitching and kind of took the like strikeouts, walks and home runs are the only thing a pitcher can control. And then we know that pitchers can, they do have some control over quality of contact, less so than batters. But there are some pitchers who consistently outperform all of these stats. And there are some pitchers that consistently underperform all of these stats. And so it's just to say that they're all different tools to try to help predict how many runs a pitcher is going to give up. They all have their merits. I think it's interesting that like we have all these iterations and every year we're trying to come up with new things.

and vertical approach angle and tunneling and all these different things. And like, I find it fascinating that they're, they all seem to just like represent like marginal increases over like the value, the predictive value of FIP, which is like the most crude possible version of all this.

I think that's very interesting. Like, it is still really interesting how much, one, how much a pitcher's results are out of their control. And two, how much just strikeouts, walks, and home runs does get you like, 90% of the way there relative to quote unquote better stats. And I'll throw... Go ahead.

I wish there was a way to just instantly like, here's the average of all of them. So something I've done this offseason that I haven't done in years past is I've created these like massive spreadsheets for pitchers that have all of their FIPP XFIPC Sierra, K minus walk rate, swinging strike rate, all on one page just so it's so much easier to compare and contrast certain pitchers and see like, all right, who accepts? where and so I guess that's the closest thing that you can get to it Scott where you're just looking at each one individually I guess you can I could like easily

average it up if I could make a column but right yeah that would be that that's fine going into a new season but when you're taking stock of it in season yeah be a little little more difficult the last one I'll throw out there for pitchers to is CSW percentage that is called strikes plus with percentage which Alex fast a couple of years ago did a great job researching this and it's more predictive than even swinging strike rate. So that's something else that's becoming more popular in the fantasy baseball space.

And you can find most, if not all of these things, on fan graphs or baseball savant.com. So if you want to dive in and look yourself, those are some of the things that we're constantly looking at. This next one's from Darren. Love the podcast, long-time listener. Have a salary cap slash auction draft question for head-to-head categories with $270 budget.

How do you guys feel in terms of having more financial flexibility come draft time? We are allowed up to 10 keepers from the previous season, and right now my keepers are projected to take up $209 of my $270 budget. Not sure if that is the right move, but I would already be locking up one to or potentially three-ish first second round players in Jose Ramirez, Yorda, Alvarez, and Fernando Tatsis Jr. Salaries for top players have been consistently escalating the past few years

with a lot of projected first round bats and pitchers going for $50-plus dollars in our draft. For example, Mookie Betts, $57, Garakol, 55, Mike Trout, 55. These are all above projected industry auction prices, but kind of where the league is right now. Yeah, and that is what happens as we were talking about as discounts are kept, then there's more money available to go to other players, which causes their price to go up. And it stands to reason, does he say how big the league, he doesn't say how big the league is,

but it stands to reason that more of those extra dollars would go to the most hotly contested players. So that makes sense. 209 to keep three players, Jose Ramirez, Jordan Alvaris for Nando Totti. That's the question, yeah. That's like 70. I mean, that averages out to like 70 each, right? Well, it says we are allowed up to 10 keepers. So I don't know if there's other players involved in that $209.

Okay, presumably it is. Yeah. Presumably, yeah. Okay, so then it's probably fine. It's probably a good idea. Yeah. Yeah, like, it depends. If it's just those three players, then I would say $210 is probably too much.

Yeah, I agree. But assuming you have other, the seven other players bring you up to 210, then it's probably okay. Look, it just depends on like 210 for your 10 best players. That's probably a little pricey and you're going to have to find some discounts, but there are going to be discounts available in the, this draft because those top players are going to be inflated. And that's the thing you always have to keep in mind is there's a finite amount of money in every salary cap draft. It's 3,108, 3,120 for a 12-team Roto League.

Yeah, if you, so. 23 man. Yeah, 23 starting roster spots. And so every dollar above a projection that's used means there's $1.1 less of And so what you typically see is when you have, you know, the $55 player, you're going to have some values. And this is what you always see in drafts is there comes a point where it's like, oh, man, I wish I had more money left. And so if you go into your draft with 209 of your 270 taken up, you probably just need to sit out the first, you know, a handful of players and wait until some of those values come. But they'll be there if you're patient. And salary cap drafts are so unique to talk about too, specifically. when we're answering questions about different type of dynasty or keeper leagues that have inflation involved. For example, you know, if a bunch of people are keeping players way under their value, then that means other players are going to go for way more of their value.

Every salary cap draft is different. That's why it's hard to talk about just exact values, salary cap values for players. But it's really, and I know this is going to sound like a cop-out answer, it's a feel thing. You need to feel it within the draft. If everyone is over spending for a certain position or certain type of player and you want that type of player, then you have to jump in on that, that, you know, that inflation within the draft. And so it's just really hard to say like, hey, this player is worth this amount of, this amount of money because every salary cap draft is different. It's really kind of tough to nail down.

But if you play in one, I think it's probably the best format to play in. So I will throw that out there as well. This next one's from our guy, Jamie Campbell. I know he's a longtime listener, supporter, tweets at us. I think he was in one of the listener leagues last year as well. My long-time 10-team Roto Fantasy League decided to switch from one keeper to up to three keepers this season. So basically, each team has the option of drafting or keeping one, two, or three players

in the first three rounds of the draft. It's a league that allows daily roster moves, and I've already decided to keep Shohei Otani, hitter and pitcher, which he is the number one player in that format, and Raphael Devers. But I'm struggling a bit with my third keeper. My options are to keep Michael Harris, Spencer Shreder, Justin Verlander, Alec Manoa, or none of them, and take the draft pick? With that in mind, would you keep one of the four players that I mentioned, which one, or would you take the draft pick in lieu of a third keeper? I would keep Michael Harris.

I have a most late second rounder in a, I assume this is a standard Rotow League. It's 10 teams instead of 12. So he probably wouldn't be more like an early third rounder in that case, but even still, I don't. think you're going to do any better with the third round pick. So, Otani, Devers, Harris is what I'd do. And that is a dynamite start to your offense, too. I mean, you're covering pretty much every base there. You got third base locked up. You have an outfielder. And obviously, Otani, who can, you know, you can get both pitching and hitting stats from. And then I think you just, you know, maybe use your fourth or fifth round pick on a starting pitcher. So it seems like a pretty good start

there, Chris. Yeah. And then when you're playing in a daily league, like it's almost unfair. It's unfair that you get to keep Otani. Like that's, it's one where like he's basically, you're getting two players. And probably, gosh, I don't know. Would Otani, if he was separate, would he be a top three round? The pitcher version of Otani might be a fourth round pick, but like, it's close enough. Yeah. So you're basically getting an extra pick there.

It's very helpful. And yeah, in this situation, like, it's possible that a better player than Michael Harris, might slip through. Maybe someone has five players who are worthy of being in the first three rounds. But I think that Harris, there's a pretty good chance he's going to be right around the right pick there either way. This next one's from Cody with a T. Dear Jim, Dwight, and Michael. Never heard of them. All right. Who's Jim?

I'll be Jim. I know. Apparently, Jim is the bully. Everyone wants to be Jim. Oh, it's such a concession to have to be Jim. the one the women all swoon over. The dynamic that I've always said was the person who thinks their gym in the office is actually Andy. Oh, I don't say that. Yeah, it's true.

I don't know, like, who would you guys be? I mean, Chris already has the glasses, so I guess Dwight makes sense. Wow. I mean... Sorry, sorry, Chris. I don't think you want to be any of these people. Like, I don't, like, I know Jim's the cool.

Oh, Jim's so cool. but like I don't like Jim. I think Jim's a jerk. This is a long-running position that I've held that people yell at me, but like Jim's a really mean person in that show, and obviously you don't want to be Michael or Dwight. Jim has some very sensitive moments, Chris. I think you are painting him.

He's a jerk. He picks on his co-workers. He thinks he's better than them. It's a real thing. I would say that it's mostly in good fun, though, Chris. It's not. All right. Well, Michael

Scott White Is not a crime Everybody in the office likes Jim Except for Dwight Right No, they actually like each other If you watch the

Well yeah They become They they They forged their relationship They start out as an office But in the beginning Yeah I mean

I'm just saying If you knew Jim Dwight would be a really difficult person to work with though let's be honest I'm not saying I'd handle it the same way Jim did But, like, you know, he was kind of a slacker at the start of the series too.

Anyway. The whole point of this, by the way, is when you send in an email or a question, feel free to attach some kind of treato. I don't want to be any of them, is what I'm saying. All right. That's, I remove myself from the office discussion. I don't want to be any of these people. All right, Chris. Well, if you're not any of these three, that will make you Toby.

I'm sorry. I have a decision to make in a Categories League five by five with average homers, run, steals, and OBP, and then on the pitching side, wins, saves, ERA, whip, and strikeouts. We are allowed to keep three players, and players have to be kept at a minimum salary of $8. Overall team salary is $300. Some good keepers for value I have include. Spencer Strider for eight, Gunner Henderson for eight, Vaughn for eight. Vaughn Grissom for eight, I almost said Marquise.

I don't know why. I almost did that in my head, too. Dalton Varsho for 11, Carlos Sordaun for 22, Tristan McKenzie for eight, Dustin May for eight, for value. For bigger salaries, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for 67, Maxxerzer for 48, and U. Darvish for 19. Leaning towards Strider, Rodan, and maybe Varsho or Gunner Henderson. And that's exactly what we're talking about with inflation in Keeper League, especially when you start to push more than $260, like the extra dollars generally aren't going to be spent evenly. They're going to go to the elite players. That's the way I would look at.

it at least. I think you gotta go Strider for eight. Mm-hmm. I think Varsho for 11. I think Strider, Varshan, right on. Yeah, I think that's it. I mean, Gunner Henderson for eight would be nice too, but I think he's, I think he comes in

fourth here. Yeah. Does it change if it's a one versus two catcher league? Not really. Not at that price. I think Varshow, I mean, in your typical $260 budget league, you know, he's going to be a probably $18 player in most leagues. So I don't think it's a bad value either way. All right.

Let's wrap up with this one from Drake. So I've been in a big competitive keeper points league can keep up to 30 out of 40 players for about 10 seasons now. And I finally won the league last year. Congrats. Our award is the number one pick. And I'm debating between. Ah, so this is a prospect question. Jackson Holiday, Drew Jones, and Kodi Sena.

These are first-year player draft options. I have Sena in here because my team is already great, and I can keep winning now by potentially adding another elite arm. Pitching is key in this format. I attach photos of my team. Sorry, I didn't include those. I also have Jordan Lawler,

but could not fit him in the picture based off that team build and age. All right, so this is kind of contextual, but, Scott, what are you thinking here? Jackson Holiday, who is the son of Matt Holiday, Drew Jones, who is the son of Andrew Jones, or a potential top 25 starting pitcher in Kodi Senga. I think you keep one of the kids. Senga's already 30, and, well, I don't think, I can't say with complete certainty he won't be an elite arm,

because he certainly was in Japan. I don't think he's going to be an elite arm. I mean, I would have put him a lot higher than 64 in my top 100. if I thought he was. He has durability issues. He has control issues. Obviously, the feel for all of his pitches is going to change going with a ball that's a little bit different, sized a little different.

And I think the texture is a little bit different too. And so it's just, it's hard to say that he's going to, with those red flags that he's going to come in and be an elite pitcher, which is an elite arm, which is how you were describing him potentially. And then he's 30. So if he's not an elite arm this year, that's not going to change. Like, if anything, he's going to start to regress. So I think he'd go with Holiday or Drew, who are both very high-end. They're both, I think they're 15th and 16th in my top 100.

I do have Drew ahead. I think the overall ceiling is higher for him. I keep calling him Drew. It's Drew Jones, obviously. But the fact that it's a points league, I mean, Holiday's play discipline is a big part of his appeal. And I do only have them separated by one spot in my rankings. So I might lean Jackson Holiday over Drew Jones in this specific scoring format.

But either way, I don't think you can go wrong. I think I would go Drew Jones as well. But it is close, Scott, as you highlighted. back to back in your prospect rankings. Chris, I don't know if you have any spicy first year player draft takes, but do you have a thought on this question? No, I mean, if it was a position player coming over from a foreign league, I think I'd be more apt to to take the risk, but pitchers hold so many unknowns and so much risk anyway that it's like, generally speaking, I'll take the more sure thing, but he's unproven at this level anyway. So I, I,

think you probably just lean towards the the young guys all right fair enough and holiday feels like more of a sure thing but that's because you got 20 games in and looked really good but you know I don't know how much yeah so Jones had a Jones didn't end up debuting last year because he tore a laborman a shoulder which is not insignificant I mean the the Diamondbacks number one picked the previous year Jordan Lawler the same thing happened to him and he came back it looked amazing So when you're when you're that young, I don't worry about it so much, but it is it is an added risk factor for Drew Jones Can the can the diamond bags get their their prospects some like shoulder pads or something?

Because Corby Carroll also had a season-ending shoulder surgery in 2021, right? Yep. Yeah, yeah, that's weird. Sure did. Yeah, let's go. Come on. Get those shoulders on track. You know, I might be part of the Diamondbacks organization because I have a slightly torn laborer as well. It doesn't feel too good, man.

I got to be honest. We probably all do. We all do at some point. It's rough. I got to get that fixed. Anyway, no one cares about that. I do want to say, just looking at the mailbag questions that you pulled, like, clearly it's keeper season. Clearly, those are top of mind for people.

Yep. In addition to having a dynasty top 150, I have a top 50 keepers based on 20-22 cost. So for everyone here who is asking, oh, do I keep a $3, $3? Spencer Strider versus a $22 Carlos Rodon. Those are the situations that that top 50 keeper list is meant to address, where you're having to weigh the cost of the player in addition to how good he is. So if you're out there listening and you have keeper questions of your own, be sure to check out that article on CBSports.com.

Do it. CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Check out all of the great work from both of the. Jen Scott White and Chris Towers. And we're going to wrap there for those two. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. These guys will be back tomorrow.

Bye-bye.