Fantasy Baseball Today - Big Questions for Top 5 Picks (03/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 30, 2020

We've got a listener bold prediction to start the show (3:45). Can the 28th third baseman according to ADP become a Top 10 option at his position? We make the case for and against. Then we've got a few news items for you (9:15) including notes on Dylan Carlson and Luis Castillo ... Asking big questions about the top players in Fantasy. How many bases will Ronald Acuna steal (22:40)? What about Mike Trout (28:00)? Will Christian Yelich be hampered by his knee injury (31:55)? ... We discuss the chances of Cody Bellinger repeating his 2019 success (36:15) and the chances that Mookie Betts will miss Fenway Park more than we imagined (38:40). And how much of a dropoff is there after the Top 3 picks? ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. One one pitch. Basketball pulled and got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. In an alternate universe, opening weekend of baseball is in the books.

My Chicago White Sox just swept the Royals. Labor Torres hit three more home runs against the Oreos. And Trey Turner had four steals against the Mets. Welcome to fantasy baseball today on Monday, March 30th. I am Frank Stamphle, joined by Adam Azer and Stone Cold Chris Towers. Adam, you missed a few things on Friday. I am now a White Sox fan and Chris Towers is now bald. What do you think of the look? I see the Chris Towers baldness thing. Wow. I warned him not to do it. And Trey Turner stole three bases on opening day last year, by the way, against the Mets and four for the series.

And he probably did it off Noah Cindergarde in this fictional season opener, season opening win. Well, we can make Noah Cindergarde healthy if we're pretending that baseball games were played. Yeah, it's an alternate universe where Noah Cindergarde did not tear his UCL. Hey, he's still pitching for the Mets. Listen, let me interrupt you. Today's a big day. This is a big day. Do you see what I have in front of my face right here?

Oh, yeah, I got here yesterday. It arrived. Wait, is that the ravioli? That is the ravioli from Chef Boy R.D. I'm ready to. I heated it up. I dipped my finger in the sauce and I licked my finger earlier. And it was revolting. This is going to be horrible.

Oh my God. Yeah, after the show, I'm going to have some bagel bites for lunch. Do you know how bad this smells? Who the hell would eat this? Well, you've got to eat it now. Adam is putting the ravioli in his mouth. He is. That's terrible.

You're such a snob, Adam. I'm terrible. Oh, I'm like, he hates it. He hates it. Yeah, I meant to update people on Chef Boyardee Gate because on Wednesday last week, which was my first appearance here on the podcast,

we kind of ended the show talking about it. And then after the show, Chris legitimately ordered a 12 pack of beef ravioli to Adam's house in, well, I'm not going to announce where. But he announced he did, he did ship it over to Adam via Amazon. And yeah, now Adam has his beef ravioli, which he hates. So I'm sorry, Adam.

Boy, it's really bad. I can't believe I have like three weeks of this stuff upstairs. Jeez. Chris, I've got to ask you with the ever-growing popularity of the hit show Tiger King and your love of cats, would you rather be called Stone Cold Chris Towers or Chris Exotic? I haven't watched Tiger King. I don't think I'm going to. So Adam, Adam seems like he's really struggling with this chef boy.

So I think I'd rather stone cold, stone cold. Yeah, plus I call Jamie, Jamie Exotic today. Maybe get some glass breaking, you know. Wait, I can make that happen for you if you want right now. Yeah. It's Chris Towers. All right, today on the show, we are going to look into another bold prediction. We are also going to dive into the biggest question.

and risk factors of the top 12 players. That's an article that Chris Towers wrote over at CBSSports.com where you can read that right now. I'll have some news and notes that we can get into, but let's start off with that bold prediction. As I mentioned, this one came from JT. Marlin 77 on Twitter. And his bold prediction was that Brian Anderson will be a top 10 third baseman this season in fantasy baseball. I don't know if there was any specification on whether there was a head-to-pointe or Roto. But Adam, Brian Anderson, top 10 third baseman,

how bold, what are the chances of this happening? How bald or how bold? No, there's only one bald person on the show. That's Chris. How bold? It's pretty bold, especially at third base. It'd be kind of bold to call him a top 15 third baseman. It'd be semi-bolded to call him the top 20.

But all he would really have to do to be top 10 is do what he did over the last 72 games of the season. Brian Anderson hit 285 with 3,000. with 15 home runs and 24 doubles. He had a 928 OPS. He was on pace for 34 homers and 102 RBIs per 162 games. So if you make that like 155 games, it's probably 33 homers, a little less than 100 RBIs,

but right around 100. So, yeah, I mean, he showed some pop in those final 72 games. First 54 games, he was terrible. He had a 663 OPS. I don't think that he's really the player that he was in those 70, what I say? 72, 74 games. So it's very bold. And he slugged 400 in 2018, 468 in 2019. He just doesn't have the pop. But maybe he figured something out in the final half of the season. I'll bet against it. It's quite bold. Yeah, I think the biggest thing is you

look at his expected stats on baseball savant via stat cast. And he outperformed his expected slugging percentage in every single month from June on. Now he underperformed in the first two months of the season, so it actually averaged out to be pretty close over the full season. But yeah, I think he probably played a little bit over his head over those last three months, so I wouldn't count on it. Anderson, 44.3% hard contact rate, that's not bad, but it just, you've got to, I guess what I'd want to know, maybe you could look it up is in those last 72 games

that he started hitting a lot more fly balls, because he's been, a big ground ball hitter. And you're just not, you're not going to be most likely an impact, an impact third basement if you hit your career 1.59 ground ball to fly ball rate. So he's going to take the ball on the air. Over those final 72 games, which is from June 1st on last year, his fly ball rate was 39%. His ground ball rate was 45%. His line drive rate was right around 16%. with the hard contact going up to 45%.

So 39% for the fly ball rate over those final 72 games. That actually is an improvement. If you look at his career, he's been 22.8% in 2017 small sample, only 25 games. In 2018, he was 28.5%. And then last year for the season in its entirety, 35%. But over those final 72 games, 39% fly ball rate for Brian Anderson. And he was pretty good in the 127. games last year. I mean, an 8-11 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, but this, yeah, this is pretty

bold. I mean, Brian Anderson, according to fantasy pros, is the 28th third baseman off the board. So yeah, to finish inside the top 10, I mean, you're talking about him surpassing guys like A. E. E. Hennel-Swarz, Jeff McNeil, Matt Chapman, Josh Donaldson. It's just an incredibly deep position. So this is very bold. I actually don't mind Brian Anderson. Like, if you play in a roto league with five outfielers, he has outfield eligibility. if you can get them as like your fourth or fifth outfielder or your corner infielder, I actually don't mind them there.

But top ten is pretty bold. Agreed. Agreed. I just want to look up one last thing. 8-11 OPS. That's not bad. It's pretty good. Well, let's see where it look.

Qualified third baseman, 12th. 12th in OPS. That would be not third base eligible, though. That's a big difference. Yeah. Just actual third baseman. Bredgman, Rendon, Aeronado.

Devers, Moncada, Bryant, Donaldson, Turner, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman, Eduardo Escobar, Brian Anderson. He had a higher OPS than Jose Ramirez. He had a higher Ops than Manny Machado, Vladimir Guerrero, et cetera. Yeah, and he, look, he does make a lot of contact, too, in his career, 21% strikeout rate. And he walks a decent amount, too, 9% walk rate. So, I mean, he does, you know, what you want to hit her to do. I think if he continues to raise the launch angle, continue to hit a little bit. more fly balls and things that I've read in the offseason from the Marlins are that that's

something that they're putting more focus on. I don't know if you could speak more to that Chris, but, and I've read that they're trying to raise the launch angle more there in Marlins Park. And they've also pulled the fences in a little bit as well. So potentially that helps the power output, but I think it just comes down to, you know, him wanting to raise the launch angle. And if he does that, then we could be talking about, you know, potentially 25 to 30 home runs, 270 hitter. Top 10, still a little bit bold. I don't know if we're, we're going to get there, per se. No, but this is helpful.

I mean, this is a good discussion, because this at least should put Brian Anderson on your radar laid in drafts if you are looking for a corner infielder. He is, if nothing else, a very good value is the 28th, third baseman off the board. Some news and notes I wanted to get into, Franklin Barreto, likely to platoon with Tony Kemp

at second base to begin the season, with Kemp on the strong side of the platoon. I'm trying to figure out what happens with Jorge Mateo in this instance. Don't completely understand why Tony Kemp would be on the strong side of the platoon here. I guess, you know, he does walk a decent amount, but he's a career 232 hitter versus right-handed pitching, 237 hitter versus left-handed pitching. So he's really not great against either right-handed or left-handed pitching.

Beretto hit everybody in the minors last year. He was exceptional against lefties, though. 330 hitter in OPS over 1,000 against left-handed pitching in AAA. And then Jorge Mateo, 19 home runs and 24 stolen base. at AAA last season. No mention here in this report. I'm hoping that, you know, look, he's out of options. I'm almost hoping that he kind of gets outrighted,

lands with a team where he can play every single day. But this news of this being a platoon, Franklin Barreto and Tony Kemp, not really great for anybody's value involved, I would say. No, I mean, fantasy value abhors a platoon. And in this case, it's a platoon with a guy in Tony Kemp, who's pretty uninspiring. So I think you'd rather see either Barreto or Mateo

get that job full time. Sorry, there's some kind of flying bug in here. I thought this wasn't a thing in New York. By the way, flying bugs in the dead of winter. Yeah, it's very... Dead of winter. Did spring already start? Spring has started, and it's like 50-something degrees out today, Chris.

dead of winter. You got a lot to learn, New Yorker. Next up we have Luis Castillo, who is working on developing his slider. He used the slide around 17% of the time last season. He posted a career high 19.9% swinging strike rate and a career high 37.7% chase rate on the pitch. He also allowed a 463 slug. So some good, some bad with the pitch.

The progression on the slider could be huge, as it's been an average pitch the past two seasons. Last season he was SP 14 in Roto, and he was SP 18 in fantasy points per game in head-to-head points leagues. So if Luis Castillo's slider continues to develop Adam, what do you think the upside can be for him in 2020? Top four. Could be number one.

I think that I've made the comparison to Luis Severino. Severino was really good, but he only had two pitches. and then he was so bad. Remember, he got moved to the bullpen, and at least Castillo has been a two-pitch pitcher, and he's been pretty good. So, you know, if he gets a third pitch and it's an effective pitch,

then he's going to actually look a lot like Luis Severino, hard thrower with a slider and a change-up. And the potential for Severino was to win the Sajong, basically, to be among the best pitchers in baseball. I think the same thing could happen for Castillo. His strikeout rate's already incredible. I think this would help, you know, keep the ball in the yard, guy gets ground.

But it would be unbelievable. If he had a good slider, I would say Castillo is going to end up being one of the best picks in fantasy. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. I mean, top five upside. Little bold here, a little bold prediction from Adam Azar. I think a lot of it comes down to can he improve on the command because 3.7 walks per nine last year was a career high for Luis Castillo, brief career, three-year career

thus far. But we did see the command take a little bit of a step back, his first pitch strike. kind of lowered last year about 5%. So I think if he can improve that command and also improve on the slider, then you're right. The upside could potentially be top 10, maybe even top five. But I think a lot of it starts with the command as well. It all comes down to consistency for him.

I think, you know, we saw him pitch like a top five starting pitcher in fantasy in the first half last season. He was incredibly good. And then in the second half, he was not so good. I think Adam, you've said it's something like the last eight starts specifically, but the second half, the IRA was close to five. And that's kind of been the defining characteristic of his career. He was incredible when he first got called up in 2018, in 2017, excuse me, 2018 was a pretty significant disappointment for fantasy players drafting Louis Castillo.

And then last season, again, you know, was the top 15 starting pitch or top 20 at least. And but it was it was a bumpy ride. And, you know, when it comes to like a pitcher is working on a pitch, That's not something that I necessarily get excited about. It's more, is it a new grip? Is it a new pitch entirely? That's when I, because like Luis Castillo, I would assume, has always worked on his slider. So that, this is a report where it's like, what does it mean?

You know, Tyler Glass now has spent the offseason working on developing a new splitter and a new changeup. He had a new grip on the change up and he's trying a splitter. That's the kind of thing that gets me excited with Castillo. So I need to know what's different this offseason than previous off seasons when it comes to working on Slider. Yeah, and that's why I'm not taking this report and drafting him any higher. Yeah. But I'm just recognizing. And this doesn't change anything because I mean, I still think there's huge upside for a guy that's 27 years old.

But going into his fourth season has been pretty good. And it was been very good. I mean, let's be clear. First 24 starts, 269 ERA, last eight starts, 555 ERA. You're right. Castillo has been up and down, and quite frankly, I think having a bigger arsenal would make him more consistent. Yeah, those are all fair points. I think my one counter to what Chris brought up is I feel like in years past, he's been really working more so on fastball command. I feel like last year we heard a lot about him working on the changeup, which is far and away his best pitch. It's one of the best changeups in all of baseball.

So I think if he started to figure out the fastball, the velocity was up last year, started to figure out the change up. I think this year, if he's just solely focusing on the slider, then that's kind of where, you know, that report has some weight to it. But that's just currently how I'm viewing it. And yeah, that's Luis Castillo. The final report I wanted to get into news and notes here, with all these players being sent down, we saw last week, like Aaron Savale, Zach Plissac, randomly getting sent down, kind of surprised some people. I find it curious that Dylan Carlson hasn't been sent down. And according to Ann Rogers of MLB.com, Carlson is still in the running for the left field job.

I feel like many people have talked about Dylan Carlson at this point. And rightfully so. I think there's a lot of upside here. Reminder that he hit 26 home runs with 20 steals while batting 2.92 across AA and AAA last season as a 20-year-old. I think there's a lot to be excited about. And I still would not rule out the possibility of him being the opening day left fielder for the St. Louis Cardinal.

because honestly, I don't think that that lineup is very good without him in it. Yeah, and Scott and I talked about this. Frank, I don't know if this was before you joined the show, but I think it was last week or maybe two weeks ago. We talked about what like a realistic upside for Dylan Carlson could be in 2019 or 2020. And I think, you know, Scott and I both agreed something like Yasiel Puegg's 2019, you know, maybe a little bit better batting average you're hoping for. Pueig, I think, hit 265, but 24 homers, 19 stolen bases, I think is what Pueke had last year.

Something like that, I think, is not unreasonable to expect for Dylan Carlson. And, you know, that would be really good. He's definitely someone, if you're drafting now, needs to be in your reserve round queue at least. And, you know, if he does get the job, I think he's probably someone who needs to be drafted, you know, around the top 200. Yeah, and that upside would be pretty ridiculous that you mentioned. The Yassiel Pweedcom, 24 home runs, 19 stolen bases. Dylan Carlson, currently the 78th outfielder off the board, according to Fantasy Pro's ADP, going behind names like AJ Pollack, who you don't really know if he's going to play every day at this point when it comes to the Dodgers.

David Fletcher, I think you could say something similar to him with the Angels. Coalhoun is with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yes, he's going to play every day, but doesn't really have that much upside. Shogo Akiama, I think probably has some upside going in this. range. John Birdie, another one you worry about playing time. So look, where Dylan Carlson's going. I agree 100%, Chris. If you can get that guy in your reserve rounds, I think it's something that you should definitely be looking into later on in your drafts. I did also want to promote before we move on to the risk factors and the top 12 questions that you wrote about, Chris, that there is a fantasy

baseball podcast bracket that is taking place. It includes 64 different fantasy baseball podcasts. You can find it over at baseball pods on Twitter. So he has this awesome kind of bracket that he set up and there's all different kind of regions. And fantasy baseball today is the number one seed in the Cody Bellinger region. And the voting in that region starts Thursday, April 2nd. So we would appreciate anyone's support out there who has listened to the podcast for years. If you can kind of jump on that Twitter account and, you know, vote for fantasy baseball today so that we can continue to move on and kind of, you know, take our spot at the right- fantasy-based place. Ultimately, our jobs are at stake. If we don't win this,

we're all fired. Yeah, and I know what you all are thinking. Like, we're the number one seed, but I don't know why we ended up out west in the Bellinger, in the Bellinger region. We're all based on the East Coast. Well, Scots and Atlanta Braves fan, they used to be in the National League West. So I think that that's why. I never, you know, that was so obvious. I don't know how I didn't see that. Okay. Well, thank you. Yeah, go ahead and vote, everybody. Well, vote on Thursday. Yeah, on Thursday. At baseball pods.

Yeah, at baseball pods on Twitter. And what Chris said might actually be true. Like, if we don't win this, like, I might actually be the one who's fired. We're all gone. These guys are the number one seed for all the work that they've done. I mean, I've kind of just floated in here, and I'm kind of riding on the back of their coattails. But it's all the, all the work and all the credits of you guys that have earned yourself the number one seeds here in this fantasy. seat baseball podcast bracket. Before I kind of get into Chris's top 12 questions, Adam, have you watched Deadpool yet? And are you still eating ravioli? No, I know and no. I haven't watched

it yet. I watched a little bit of Tiger King. I started watching Rambo 3 because it was on TV. I'm looking forward to finishing that today. I've never seen that before. And no, no Deadpool yet. And God, I'm telling you, man, this is awful. How do you like this stuff? It's terrible. Honestly, I haven't eaten it since I was, I don't know, in my young teens. Give it a shot. There are

a lot of, there are a lot of things that are not you know, quote unquote good that I love. I love a luncheable's pizza. Love a bagel bite. That's what I'm going to have for lunch today. Bagel bites are good. It's the same

kind of thing though. It's like a, a It's a super, like sweet sauce. That's kind of what you get from, you know, any pre-packaged pizza. You're not going to get like a deep, robust flavor from your ravioli in a can. And it's, you know, it's fine. It's pretty good. I smell it. It was like, it just, the scent just got near me and I just, oh, it's like a shiver down my spine.

Go away. Fun fact, I did not try a luncheble's pizza. until this year, Chris. How egregious is that? You lived an unhappy childhood, my friend. If you weren't at the lunch table trading a luncheble's pizza for, they had the deep dish ones too?

Oh, man. I never had it. I've had plenty of lunchebles. I never had the pizza. All right, so I'm not in an island here, but although... Oh, I am because you've had one. I haven't. You guys are weirdos.

I might go to the Gerser store now and get one. Will you stay home, Chris? What's the matter with you? Adam, I have to go grocery shopping. You don't have to go right now to get Lunchables Pizza. Well, no, but like I'm going to go grocery shopping either today or tomorrow. I know for a fact. I want to go before the first of the month.

You went grocery shopping last week. Adam, not all of us are living in palatial mansions on the outlying areas of New York City. Some of us are stuck in the city hunkering down in our 550 square foot two-bedroom apartment. I just feel like every time I talk to you, you're going to the... the grocery store. Okay, that's all. Yeah, I have to go like every three or four days, Adam. I don't have a lot of room to store stuff. That's stop eating. You're being very selfish. Chris, I'll raise you one further. I live in a one bedroom basement apartment. So, you know, not all of us, you're right. Not all of us are rich like Adam Azer over there. Oh, yeah.

Let's see the sunlight, even. I don't get any sunlight. I actually prefer it that way, which, you know, that might sound a little sad, but I just prefer to live in dark. That goes back to our dark night conversation. All right, let's move into the top 12. The biggest questions and risk factors for top 12 players is an article that our very own stone cold Chris Towers wrote over at CBSSports.com. And let's just jump into the top here. Our first question here regarding Ronald Acuna last year hit 280 with 41 home runs,

127 run scored, 37 stolen bases. And Chris, your biggest question here regarding Acuna is how long will he remain an elite steel source. And I mean, I'll give you the opportunity to answer it, but given his age, I don't really think that we should see the stolen bases dipping further than kind of where they were at last year. So what says you, Chris Towers? No, 100%. I'm not actually expecting his stolen base total to dip much. I mean, I'm not necessarily sure I would expect him to once again be among the league leaders, but, you know, that's kind of splitting hairs. Like, if he still's 35, I would expect, well, in a full 162 game season,

assuming we get something like that, I would think we'll see league leaders more in the 50 range than we did last year. Last year was kind of a weird season. But, you know, one of the things that this just points out, I think, is Ronald Ocuna was the number one player in fantasy last season. He was number 36 in Wobah and OPS in 2019. So as far as actually being one of the best hitters in baseball, he wasn't. You know, his 37 homers led the National League.

They wouldn't have a Christian Yelts should have been healthy. And he didn't really hit many doubles. So I think it wouldn't surprise me if we saw some regression in the in the raw home run total as well. So I think, Chris, he hit, you know, a lot of his value. He had 41 home runs, right? He did 37, but that was the steals. Oh, 37. 41 homers, 37 steals.

Yep. So it just, for me, it comes down to, like, if he's a 25 stolen base guy, he's probably not the number one player in fantasy. You know, I looked at kind of the top five picks last year, Trout, Yelich, Belanger, Betz, and Acuna. And if you cut all of their stolen base totals in half and left everything else the same, Akunia would have been the number 13 hitter behind Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, and Betts, and Acuna. and if you cut all of their stolen base totals in half and left everything else the same, Acuna would have been the number 13 hitter behind Trout, Yalach, Ballinger, and Betts.

So that's kind of... He relies on that stolen base total. And that's kind of the one thing that separates. Wait, sorry, so you cut his stolen bases, he's the number 13 hitter? I cut all of those five in half. Okay, but that's in points or Roto? In Roto.

Okay, using that formula. I guess, but that's assuming that he doesn't get better as a... hitter and he's 22 years old. He had 280 with 41 homers. One other thing to keep in mind is that he's as a, okay, leading off, he's been on pace for 125 runs

and 139 runs as a lead off hitter in two seasons. And that is like, you take what he did as a lead off hitter in 2018 and 19, you give him 155 games and he's been on pace for 125 runs in 2018 and 139 runs in 2019. So he's got, he'd be my favorite, along with Mugi Betts, but I put Okunia there to lead baseball in runs scored. Actually, maybe it'd be bets. But the one thing that would, I think, really hurt Akuna a lot

is if they move him down in the order. They said they're not going to. Yep. He played 36 games as a cleanup hitter last year. He attempted two stolen bases. And we have a history of the Braves not running from that spot. So he pretty much needs to stay at leadoff, and he might just hit too damn well,

and they might say, you know what? Dansby Swanson's having a big year. Maybe we're going to lead him off and put Albi's second, Freeman stays at third, Acuna bats cleanup. It's not so far-fetched, and then he probably wouldn't run that much. So just keep it in mind,

but I don't see why he wouldn't, if he leads off, I don't see why he wouldn't run a lot and score a ton of runs. Look, that's just the risk factor. I'm not saying it's what's going to happen. Yeah. And I think that's a fair point that Adam brings up specifically about the age because, again, he's 22 years old and we'll talk about this when we get into Juan Soto a little bit later on,

but there's still the possibility that these guys just continue to get better because what they've done already at such a young age is just ridiculous in terms of the stolen bases in particular. His sprint speed last year was in the 96th percentile. So for what it's worth, I mean, he is one of the fastest base runners in the league. And I think, you know, as long as he is batting lead, again, that's a huge factor in his ability to steal bases and his intent on stealing bases. As long as he bats lead off, I think that the stolen base total is still going to be very high for

Ronald Acuna this upcoming season. Where are you guys drafting him in a Roto League? Scott took him first. You're taking him first for sure. Yeah, I'm taking him third. First, first round. I go Trout yell at Chakuna. I think in a Roto League, I've taken him first.

I was Trout. Trout is just such a better hitter, but it comes down to the stolen base and we'll get to that. He's the number two player in ADP. His biggest question is kind of the opposite of Ronald de Cunius. Yeah, so let's get into that right now.

The biggest question for Mike Trout, can he get back to stealing bases? Last season, Mike Trout wound up stealing 11 bases in 134 games. The year before that, he was at 24. In 2017, he was at 22. In 2016, he was at 30. So he's been 30, 22, 22, 22,

24 and 11 steals over the past four seasons. Of course, the power numbers went up last year with 45 home runs, 110 runs, and 104 RBI, which was actually his second highest RBI output in his career. But yeah, I think, look, for Mike Trout to get back to being the number one overall player, he has to steal more bases. I mean, that's why I would, hands down, no doubt about it, I would take Ronald Lucuna first overall in Roto, just because as much as, you know, you might not like it, stolen bases are a category and they are the scarcest category. And I think Ronald Coon is at least safe for 30 plus. You can't say that about Mike Trout this upcoming season, Chris. Yeah. Although I will say his sprint speed has basically not gone down at all. He's at 29.2.

That's actually right where he was in 2018 and 2017 and actually a little bit up from 2016. So, you know, the last time we saw Mike Trout, Steele 11 bases was 2015. he came back in 2016 and stole 30. Right, exactly. So it's not at all about whether, like, Mike Trout is in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. There is no question he can steal 30 bases. There's really no question he can steal 40 bases. The only question really is whether he wants to.

And so, you know, I think it's fair to wonder whether he does. But Mike Trout is the best hitter in baseball. I don't think there's really a question about that at this point. like maybe Christian Yelich is as good. But Mike Trout, if he plays a full season, he's going to hit 45 to 50 home runs. He's going to give you, I mean, the upside for 250 runs in RBI combined is there,

especially with the lineup around him. He's going to hit 300. So it's really just, he's never going to be worse than like the fifth best player on a per game basis. It's a safety versus upside question for Akunia versus Trout and really Yelich too. But, you know, I also think Trout has the upside.

It's not like he doesn't. Yeah. And I, like, obviously I expect Acuna to run a lot. But we've seen that sometimes you just, that just doesn't happen sometimes. Jose Al-Tuvae stopped running. I mean, it doesn't really make sense for Acuna to stop running. He could strain his hamstring in April and play through it, but not. Yeah, anybody can get hurt.

But I'm saying, even if he doesn't, I mean, like Mike Trout had. 33, his last seven seasons, 33, 16, 11, 30, 22, 24, 11. You never know. I mean, it was surprising that Mookie Betts stole as few bases as he stole last year. There was really, he's in his prime. There's no reason for him to not run as much. So, look, I think Trout is still more than 11. And I think if Trout gets you to 20,

then I think people are going to want to have him at number one if he gets you to 20 personally. Yeah, look, there's a lot of volatility when it's, comes to Mike Trout's stolen base output every single season. And I think, again, you're right. If he gets to 20, he's probably the number one player in any form of enemy. He's probably going to compete with being the number one player in head-to-head points leagues, regardless, just because he has such great plate discipline. But for what it's worth, I'll throw out there, Joe Madden in his past three seasons as the manager of the Chicago Cubs, who's now the manager of the Angels, has ranked 29th,

24th, and 24th in stolen bases. It doesn't necessarily mean that Mike Trout's not going to be able to run, but I'll just throw that out there where the Cubs have ranked and stolen bases over the past three seasons. Next up, we have Christian Yellichu. Again, this is basically the consensus top three. And the biggest question that Chris has regarding Yellich this season is, will there be any lingering effects from the knee injury? Of course, we all remember last year what happened with Yelich, it was a fluke injury where he fouled the ball off his knee cap and wound up fracturing his knee. But even with that, I mean, he ranked as one of the best players, regardless of format. Once again, I mean, 44 home runs, 329 batting average, and 30 stolen bases.

I think, again, this kind of comes back to the stolen base conversation. Do you think that the fractured kneecap can at all affect his stolen base output this season, Chris? Yeah, that's the only question. Christian Yelich is the only player in baseball. I think you could probably say the same about Mike Trout, but he hasn't shown the willingness to run like Christian Yelch has the last couple of seasons, and specifically last year. he was on pace for like pretty close to a 50 home or 40 steel season Christiani Elch is the and he led baseball and batting average or the the National

League at least he's the only player who you could realistically say has a chance to lead majors in every roto category I'm not saying he will but the that is that is the kind of upside we're talking about so you know he was I think by far the best player in fantasy on a per game basis last season So it really does just come down to will the brewers having lost some talent this offseason and not really replacing much of it, will they be willing to risk Christian Yelage on the base paths? That's where injuries can happen. And so their margin for error is a lot slimmer this year.

If he doesn't run as much, if he's a 20 steel guy, like Mike Trout, he's probably still in the conversation for being the number one player in fantasy. but if the upside is lower because he runs less, that's something to keep in mind. Okay, but if he hits, I'll just give him sort of modest yellage numbers. If he hits 315 with 35 home runs and 105 RBIs and 105 runs

and 15 steals, which is much worse than what he did last year. Where, you know, is that still the number three overall player? Yeah, I would say. That's pretty close. to what he did in 2018, right? 2018, he was the number four hitter in Roto. 326, yeah, it was pretty close.

326, 36 homers, 22 steals. I gave him 15 steals, 110 RBIs and 118 runs. I guess I would say if he hits 315 with 35 homers, he's probably going to have more runs than RBIs than I gave him. Yeah, I think you were underselling him kind of across the board a little bit. Yeah. At least since he's gotten to Milwaukee. He's led Yo, Yo, he's done.

has led baseball and home run to fly ball rate qualified hitters two straight years. So I'm sorry. I just think he's been lucky two years in a row with home runs. He's always been elite. He has gotten much better since he got to Miller Park, but Miller Park is a great place for home runs. Yeah, I think you could still expect some home run to fly ball ratio regression, but he is also hitting the ball in the air more now.

Yeah, yeah. He's incredible. I was, you know, all through, like throughout last year, the end of last year, when we started to get to the point where, hey, let's look ahead to 2020, I was saying I was going to take Yelich first overall. And then the fractured kneecap, yeah, I guess if you gave me, if you gave me 20 steals from Yelich, and I didn't know what Trout or Coon, you were going to do, you guaranteed me 20 steals, I would take them first.

Over the past two seasons, there's only one player who has 80 home runs. and 50 stolen bases. That player is Christian Yelich. I don't worry as much about the home run to fly ball ratio because again, Miller Park is so conducive to power for left-handed batters. And I mean, we now have a two-year sample size. So that's, we're talking about, you know, over 1,100 plate appearances here where he has lead baseball and home run to fly ball ratio. Even if it takes a little bit of a step back, I think it could kind of be mitigated by the fact that he's raising the launch angle. And that was a good point by Chris as well. Let's move on to the next player in the top 12 that we have questions regarding here. Cody Bellinger, this is an easy one. Can he do it again? I mean, last year,

NL MVP for Cody Bellinger. He was the number three hitter overall in Roto. He was tied for the fourth best hitter in fantasy points per game in head to head points leagues. 305 batting average, 47 homers, 236 runs plus RBI, 15 stolen bases. What are the chances that he's he repeats in 2020. I know that Adam likes to do like the chance o meter. He likes to make these meters. Chance o meter, probability o meter, whatever you want to call it. Chris, what are the chances that Cody Bellinger does it again on a scale of 1 to 10?

I would say the chances of him repeating the success as far as contact rate and batting average last year are relatively low. I would expect some regression from that. You know, he hit for less power in the second half, struck out. more in the second half. Both were better than what he had previously established as his career norm. Still, I would take the under on a 300 average, but I still think he's a safe bet for 40 homers, a safe bet for 15 or so steals, or double digit steals at least.

And he's going to give you elite run and RBI production. It's more, you know, he probably hits more like 280 in my eyes. And so that just kind of knocks him out of that number one overall discussion. Right. chance ometer of him doing it again, Cody Bellinger. I would say six. And the batting average

is certainly what stands out because he hit 416 in April, 319 in May, 272, 265, 235, 280. I mean, he might be a 270 hitter. In his first year, 2017, he hit 267.

In 2018, he hit 260. You know, I'm not sure he's going to hit 280. So the steals are nice. but they're not so abundant. Fifteen steals last year is very good. I think he's really good, but, you know, I think that he might be a worse hitter than J.D. Martinez with, let's say, 12 more steals.

And, you know, J.D. Martinez is a second round pick right now. So I don't really want... If I don't have a top three pick, I don't know that I want a top five pick. Because I don't love Bellinger there. and I don't love bets there. You know, and a point's like I do, but in a road area, not as much. I don't really get why the industry has bets as kind of the consensus at this point number six player.

Like, yes, Fenway Park was a great place to hit, especially for a player like Moogie Betts, who makes so much contact because it just does great things for his batting average. I think we're still going to see elite production for Mooky Betts. I don't know. He's coming off a down season, but this is a guy who's been the number one hitter in fantasy twice before. Yeah, I think it's a good point, right? He's coming off a down year.

I'm using my air quotes for everyone out there. Down year for Mookie Betts was the 13th best hitter in Roto, and he was tied for seventh in fantasy points per game in head-to-head points leagues. He typically does have great plate discipline as well. And you had some really good stats in your article, Chris, about how much he will miss Fenway. And that is the main question that you're posing for Mookie Betts. I'll kind of throw that one back your way.

Like how much does being away from Fenway Park actually affect Mookie Bez's production because, you know, we know that having the green monster there is something that typically helps right-handed hitters. So not having that anymore is obviously, I mean, it should negatively affect Mookie Betts. So how much does that affect

him? And who would you rather have between Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger? I think I would rather have Belanger. I think I would rather have bets than Ballinger. Sorry. He's going to give you elite runs. He's probably going to drive in. a healthy amount of runs, although it'll be less in the national league because he'll be batting behind the pitcher. He is a 319 career hitter at Fenway compared to 285 everywhere else.

You know, most hitters hit worse away from home than they do at home, so that's not necessarily the worst thing in the world. I think you'll probably still see him hit something like 290. Like, yes, he's moving away from Fenway Park. He gets nine games at course field. He gets you know, nine games at at Chase, which is still a decent hitters park. And Dodger Stadium isn't a bad place to hit. So I still think I'm expecting something like 290 average 30 homers,

elite runs, plenty of stolen bases. I think the floor is a first rounder. I think that's fair when it comes to Muky. Well, it hasn't been. I mean, two years in or two of the last three years, you'd be wrong. Because last year he was the number 13 hitter. So considering there are going to be some pitchers that go in the first round.

Okay, in the points league, you're absolutely right. The floor is the first round player. And I love Mookie Betts in a points league. But two of the last three years, Mookie Betts has been number 13 hitter in Roto and number 17 hitter in Roto. So two of the last four years, he's been the number one player in fantasy. I get that. But the other two years, he's been a mile bust. A mile bust.

The floor is the second round. Yeah, the floor is the second round. And honestly, I don't want to draft the second round player fourth or fifth overall. I have no problem with that in points leagues. I love bets in points leagues. But in a roto league, he stole 16 bases last year. I don't know what to make of that. I do think leaving Fenway is bad.

I also think that not playing in Yankee Stadium, Roger Center, and Camden Yards. I mean, the AL East is full of great hitters parks. And some people say Yankee Stadium isn't. I don't really believe that. Tampa Bay, obviously, is not. being in a nationally park I mean the Red Sox Like I think the Dodgers

Led the NL and runs scored last year I think they were fifth in baseball So a good Red Sox team is going to score more runs Than a good Dodgers team Sure 100%. I think there is a downgrade here And that's why I don't love bets as a Like he is a top five pick to me

But I think there's such a big drop off After the first three I would agree with that I think most people would I would actually take Bellinger over Betts personally. I do have him as my fourth best player in Roto leagues and probably in points leagues too, just because

he walked so much last year. I really buy into the strides that he made in terms of making contact last season as well. So I'll take Bellinger over bets, but I do think that it is a it's a very close call. It kind of just comes down to how do you want to set up your team? Do you want more power? Do you want a few more stolen bases?

Then maybe you lean with bets. But if you want some of those power numbers, maybe you lean in the way of Cody Bellinger. Hold on Frank. I want to, hold on for you. I want to clarify something I just said. I don't think there's a huge drop off after one, two, three. I think there's a drop off. I think, you know, in a roto league, top three picks are in some order.

Acuna, Trout, Yelich. And then after that, there's a drop. In a points league, I want a top five pick because Trout, Yelich, to me, Bregman three, bets for Bellinger five, maybe Cole five, maybe Bellinger five, maybe, let's say, a top six pick. Acuna, I'm probably looking at number seven overall. But Bregman is not in this discussion in a Roto League, but in a points league, he most certainly is. He was the number one hitter in that format.

So I just want to sort of clarify that. All right. So we'll talk more about some of these first rounders on tomorrow's show, maybe throughout the course of the rest of the week. But there you go. That's a nice little discussion there on the top five and the questions, the risk factors that you have heading into the season for each of those players. So make sure to check out that article over at CBSports.com. I did want to get into some of the emails that you sent in, and you can continue to send those in at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com,

or you can also leave us a question when you give a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts. And that's where this first question actually comes from today, from Mike Destano, who left a review on Saturday. He said, who are your favorite players that were supposed to be on ennings limits or were expected to miss the early part of the season? For example, he and Jin Ryu? Jesus Lazzardo, James Paxton, et cetera. So someone who is going to,

someone who's going to get a boost with the season potentially being shortened. So what do you guys have? Paxton, for me, easy. Yeah, no, I mean, that's the friend. Paxson is head and shoulders above the other guys for me. Yeah, I would think of guys like Chris Paddock,

Tyler Glassnow, Frankie Montas, you know, maybe Carlos Carrasco, it's harder to say there, Jesus Lazzardo, guys who you were, Julio Reyes, you know, not expecting 200 innings from anyway. Were you not expecting that from Chris Paddock? Because I thought the reins were being taken off.

I was expecting at least 185 or something like that. I would say 180 is the expectation for me. Okay. Yeah, I was expecting like 170 to 180 for Paddock this year. Okay, I certainly prefer Paddock to Paxton. I was just really talking about like the, you know, where, like, Okay, before this COVID crap, Paxton, Lazzardo, Ryu, similar ADP, because the innings were expected to be, you know, Paxon wasn't going to be on a pitch

count or anything like that, but he was going to miss so much time. Paxton, to me, before the injury was probably a top 20 to 25 pitcher. I think that's what he is again. Yeah, and on Fantasy Pro's ADP right now, James Paxon is the 41st starting pitcher off the board. So I think a lot of that ADP that you see is kind of being pushed down from when the injury first took place. And you're right. I mean, there's no pitcher that I've moved up further as a result of the season potentially being shortened.

But the delay of the season definitely, you know, obviously taking place here is James Paxson. He's the one that I've moved up the most. I moved them up 10 spots. He's my 33rd starting pitcher right now ranked. And hopefully I'll have those rankings for you soon at CBSports.com. So yeah, I would agree on James Paxon. but Lazzardo is someone that I have moved up about five spots as well. He's inside my top 30 now.

So I think those are some good names. I mean, the ones that you listen there, Lazzardo Paxson, to me, I think, are the ones that stand out the most here. I'm a little out on James Paxton. I think he's good. Get with it. There's a lot of risk, and I'm not sure he's great, especially, you know, what we saw last season in Yankee Stadium, kind of the worst fears were realized. He wasn't as good.

He gives up some fly balls, and it's a tough place to hit to pitch if you give up fly balls. So I just, I don't think there's top of the rotation upside there anymore. I, well, I mean, I'm not trying to be the I Told You So guy, or he was a lot better at home than he was last year. ZRA was a run lower and he gave up three fewer homers. I just, I don't, I don't think that.

Like you're you're talking about what? Like 13 starts in each instance? I mean, well, that's, you can't say that he had problems at home when he did it. If you think it's going to happen, that's fine. But he didn't. And I think that, I think the bigger split to me for Paxton is his last 11 starts, he went 10 and 0 with a 251 ERA with sub one whip. He faced the Red Sox twice, faced Dodgers once.

He faced the Rangers, why he said gave up just six home runs and something changed. He started throwing his breaking ball. He was basically throwing like fastball, fastball, fastball. I don't know what they were doing. And he had a 472 ERA in his first 18 starts. He changed it up. He had a 251 ERA.

Your point is taken though that you don't know if he's great. And he's been very up and down in his career. I'm guessing he's like a 340, 350 ERA guy. But I think that could come with a ton of strikeouts and a really good record. So that's why I like him. Yeah, I did want to point out those final 11 starts, as you mentioned as well. I mean, he upped his curveball usage to 27% over those final 11 starts. And that's where we really saw some results out of him, the 251 ERA.

It reminds me a lot of Trevor Bauer, and he goes later than Bauer. And I think he's going to give you a better ERA than Bauer too. I mean, over the past two seasons, 11.4Ks per 9, that's the fifth best in all of baseball. So if there's one thing that Paxson is going to give you, it's strikeouts in a large abundance, although you do have some concern over the ennings pitched because he hasn't been able to stay healthy. You feel like he's already got his injury out of the way, right? There's no way he's going to get injured again.

We know that. Yeah, especially with the Yankees' medical staff. There's no chance he's going to get hurt again. Yeah, no, Paxon's fine. Next up we have from Justin Holsey, Dear Payton, Disney, Frazier, and Walt and White. I kind of gave away the answer there. Oh, you screwed up?

I was not going to get that originally. No, I probably would have. You weren't going to get that? Yeah, those are Walters. They're Walters. Yeah. I mean, Waltz. Nobody's ever called him Walter Disney.

Walter Disney. The dynasty would never have been established if he was Walter Disney. Okay. And nobody would watch Breaking Bad if it had been Walt White. Nobody ever. Yeah. Walt Payton would not be a good run back. Terrible.

There's no way. Walt's Peyton. Yeah. So this is like a combination of Walt versus Walters. Walt Clyde Fraser, obviously, uh, the great for the New York Knicks. But, uh, yeah, look, I'm surprised that I actually got this one because last week, I did not do a very good showing. Adam in my first mailbag episode, I was, uh, I was quite poor when it comes to figuring out,

figuring out the nicknames here. Uh, so this is one that I actually got, probably just because of Walt White. But Justin Holsey has in my dynasty startup draft next weekend, my first two picks will be number two and number 23. Is there any reason why I should not select a cunia or trout with my first pick? and who should I target with my second selection, number 23. I would prefer to take another hitter, but there will be some top pitchers available at that spot as well. He does not mention whether or not it's a head-to-pointe league or it's a Roto League,

so he's looking to take a CUNYA or Trout at number two, and then at number 23, Chris, who's the player that you might be targeting in that range? I think I'm probably looking at, I'm just looking at the dynasty results that we had. And, you know, you're hoping someone like a Fernando Tatis falls, but I'd be surprised if he does. I don't know. My strategy, we'll talk about this tomorrow when we talk about the dynasty draft. My strategy for a dynasty draft doesn't change too much.

You know, I'm looking for someone under the age of 30. So, you know, if Trevor Story is there, I think that'd be a really good pick at number 23 overall. Oh, at 23, yeah. I actually, so obviously Acuna is an easy choice to make. Is there any question that Trout should be a top two pick in a dynasty league? No, he's 28 years old. There's still, there's been, he's gotten better. There has been no side of the fine.

Mike Trout just keeps getting better. Three years in a row, though, he's gotten hurt. But it's not like, it's not like he blew out his knee or something. It's been like one of them was a broken hand, I believe. It's just been kind of random stuff. I'm not, I'm not worried about that. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I thought, I think that Fernando Tatis should be like a top five pick in a

Dynasty League. And I'm interested to talk about where he went in the one you guys just did. It was not top five, was not even round one. He won't be there at 23, but I would do backflips if you were. Question is, you know, do you take a pitcher there or do you take a hitter or just best player available? You have a hitter for me. Okay. You have a coo and your trout number two.

By downgrade pitching across the board in Dynasty. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. And that was going to be a talking point. And something we'll get into when we break down this dynasty mock that we did recently. We'll do that, you know, either tomorrow or at some point throughout this week. But I do agree with Chris.

I think you have to downgrade starting pitching a little bit across the board. So through your first three picks, maybe you take one starting pitcher. But I think, again, if Trevor Story were there, Tatis were there, definitely names, I would be interested in at that point. but I'll also throw Glaver Torres in the hat. I'll throw Rafael Devers, Yordon Alvarez, I think all young players

who are ascending at this point too. So players that, you know, see a little bit of a boost in Dynasty League. So I'll throw those names in the hat as well. Names that you could look at around pick 23.

Next question comes from Garrett Tuck. I'm a bit lacking in first base. Trey Mantini is my starting first baseman with Eric Hosmer, a favorite of Chris Towers, as my backup. Should I be,

should I look for additional help at the position with Mancini dealing with his health issues? Who would you recommend in a daily points league? Jack Peterson, Yandy Diaz, Danny Santana, or Justin Smoke are the names that he's looking at. Yandi would be of those four. But I mean, I'm fine writing it out with Mancini and Hosmer. Yeah.

You know, let's do what happens. I think the only exception I can make is since it is a daily points league, or since it's a daily league, specifically, If you have the flexibility to add Jack Peterson to your roster and slide him in when he's facing Ritees, Jack Peterson could be a significant step up there. And then you just use Hosmer until against when Peterson's not in the lineup until Mancini's back. I guess to be honest with you guys, I had run into the issue of not having a first baseman because I drafted. in Miguel Sanoe and plus another third baseman,

and I knew I needed a one week of the first baseman, and I had been taking Yandi Diaz in a points league ahead of Eric Hosmer. That's fair. Yeah, it is fair. Yandy Diaz, someone who has good play discipline. I worry a little bit about the playing time, just because it's the Tampa Bay raise. Everything they've said is that he's going to play every single day,

but throughout spring training, we actually saw Nate Lowe was getting some time at third base. So there's still always that possibility, and I don't want to rule that out when it comes to the Tampa Bay raise. I think the point you made Chris about it being a head-to-head points league lends me to leaning towards Jock Peterson as well. If you just want to go in that route against right-handed pitching last year, a walk rate over 10 percent. His strikeout rate was only 20 percent.

A 137 weighted runs created plus versus right-handed pitching. A 34 weighted runs created plus against left-off. He is so, so bad when it comes to batting against lefties. I do agree with the jock Peterson call there. This next one from Darren Sobey, I play in a daily lineup changes league that is seven by seven head to head categories for pitching we add quality starts

and K per nine to the standard five by five categories. My question is, after one of the morons in my league dropped Mitch Keller, definitely a moron, for Joe Jimenez, who should I drop to claim Keller? You guys are super high on Josh James and Dylan Bundy, and I like Jose or Kiti, do I drop one of those guys?

Carlos Martinez, should I drop Dylan Carlson? I am thinking Carlson, although my outfield is not nearly as good as my pitching staff, I am starting Adam Eaton right now. One, I'm writing a piece today where I actually, I talk up Adam Eaton a little bit. He was actually surprisingly good last season.

But I like Mitch Keller more than Josh James. I like Mitch Keller more than Dylan Bundy. I like Mitch Keller more than Jose Orkitti. So I'm kind of fine dropping any of them for him. I think it would be Dylan Bundy for me. But I also know that that's not something that Scott would necessarily agree with. I'm just, I'm not necessarily buying Dylan Bundy being good. Nope.

It is absolutely Dylan Bundy for me. Absolutely. And Erkini is someone we almost never talk about. And he had good numbers. He only made two starts, though. Most of it was in relief. But look at these two starts. Actually, I don't know for a fact that these are his starts,

but they were his longest outings. Combined 13 innings, two runs, 15 strikeouts against the Rangers and the Cardinals. Last game of the year, six innings, six shutout innings with two strikeouts at the Angels. Yeah, I don't know if he started that or not, but... Yeah, he started that final game. He did?

Yeah, man, I mean... So one of those two starts that I mentioned, those two outings that I mentioned earlier of combined 13 innings. One of them wasn't a start. But either way, I mean, really good numbers for Rikiti. And I feel like we talk about Josh James a lot on this show. We never talk about Rikiti. Who do you guys like better?

I think James. James has higher upside. I think Rikidi is someone who is a little bit safer, like not going to get you as many swings and misses, as many strikeouts, but has much better command. Like last year in the major is just 41 innings. Jose Rikidi, 1.5 walks per nine. I mean, that's really, really good command.

So I think it comes down to what you. need. I think if you want a safer player, I think Arcidi, I think for upside, I would go with Josh James. But in terms of this question, I don't have a problem dropping either one of the Astros for Mitch Keller. I would actually hold on to Dylan Bundy. I don't know if it's one of those things where I just haven't been burned by Dylan Bundy before. So I kind of want to take the shot with him in Los Angeles. I mean, better park to pitch in swinging strikes have seemingly always been there for Dylan Bundy. So I'm okay dropping either of the Astros. And as we spoke about earlier, I mean, Dylan Carlson, someone I'm very excited about.

I wouldn't want to drop Dylan Carlson. So I'm holding on to him there. To wrap up the show here, Adam, we have to have a little discussion. Because I wanted to remind you that, and we had a little Facebook spad over this already, diehard is 100% of Christmas movie. Oh, come on, Frank. Frank. I mean, I know Bruce Willis agrees with you that it is not.

But both you and Bruce Willis are wrong in this matter. And I will tell you why. Argyle was playing Christmas and Hollis in the limousine. He's playing Christmas music. Who cares? It doesn't make it a Christmas. The movie is not about Christmas. It takes place during Christmas time.

That doesn't make it about Christmas. Well, why does the diehard soundtrack have so many Christmas songs on it then? Because they're just playing the song. I mean, the songs don't make the movie. You know, like the movie is about a guy fighting off terrorists and killing people.

There is nothing Christmas like about that. And I'll tell you, you could probably take the entire movie and make it a Christmas movie if you added one scene at the end. The scene would be he and Holly go home and see their kids and the kids come up and run and give them a hug and they celebrate Christmas together. If you did that, it might be a Christmas movie. But there are almost, there's no element of family in it. The kids are in for a brief second and they only serve to basically blow Holly Generos cover because that jerk reporter is doing everything you can to endanger everyone's lives. So he interviews the damn kids and he blows Holly's cover.

So there's no sense of family. And they don't even officially get back together, I don't think at the end. Maybe they do. But who cares? It's about a bad, it's about a good guy killing bad guys. It is not about Christmas. A good guy kills bad guys on Christmas or during a Christmas party. And that's it.

And that's what it is. Adam, the only reason John McLean is in Los Angeles is to see his wife at a Christmas party. It doesn't matter. That's not what the movie is about. If the whole movie had been with him spending time with his wife, then sure, it's a Christmas movie. He's never with his wife.

He's trying to win his wife back. He's trying to get back. He's not trying to win her back. It's a classic Christmas movie. He's trying to kill bad guys. The Christmas movie exists for about 10 minutes. Once the first shots... No, no, hold on. He's not trying to kill bad guys.

He's trying to save people because he's trying to see his wife. No. That is the whole... That is not his motivation. That's the only reason he's in the city. His motivation... Okay, his motivation for being there is his wife. Once the movie actually starts and the terrorism begins, the motivation for the movie changes.

He's no longer about his wife. He's about everything, killing the bad guys, saving everybody. Yeah, being his wife is important too. But he has more of a relationship with the cop than his wife. Okay, Carl Weathers is a more important character than Holly Janaro. And if it were a Christmas movie, that wouldn't be the case. John McLean doesn't know that he's there to fight off terrorists until the terrorist. until the terrorists show up.

You're talking about 10 minutes of the movie. Sure. If that were 45 minutes of the movie, then sure. There's no damn Christmas. It's just freaking music. You know, I interviewed the writer of the movie, by the way. We had him on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. You know what he said, Frank?

He's wrong. He said it's a Christmas movie. He's wrong. He's right. No, he's wrong. You tricked me. I'm pretty sure he said that when he wrote it, he did not think it was a Christmas movie.

But when he was on set and he saw all the Christmas stuff. He realized it was a Christmas movie. I'm pretty sure that's what he said. I've got to listen to it again. So actually, if you want to dig into the archives of fantasy football today, it was in 10 years is my favorite episode that we've ever done. This guy, Stephen DeSouza, was so entertaining. He does like his Arnold impression because he's written for Bruce Willis, Arnold, Van Dam. I think Segal, maybe it was Stallone. I don't know. One of them was missing. But he has such great Hollywood stories. And actually, I encourage you to, in the fantasy football today, feed in the archives, it was summer-ish of 2018, no, 2019. Please check out that interview. It was really cool. Who is your daddy and what

does he do? Yeah, that being said. He did not do that. Adam is there for Stone Cold, Chris Towers. I am Frank Stample. Thank you all for listening. When we come back later on the week, we'll break down this dynasty mock that we had as well. Thanks for listening, everyone. We will see you tomorrow.