Fantasy Baseball Today - Biggest ADP Risers & Fallers: Corey Knebel Climbing, Max Muncy the Opposite (1/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 12, 2022

Before we get into the ADP movers, the MLB and the MLBPA are scheduled to meet this week (4:55)! ... Random but Camden Yards announced they're changing dimensions to help pitchers out (5:45). ... Let's start with the biggest ADP riser of all: Corey Knebel (12:05). ... Will Marcell Ozuna rejoin the Braves (14:55)? ... Target Alex Cobb late (18:48)! ... Don't forget about Connor Joe (21:20). .. This Oneil Cruz projection is throwing things off (24:03). ... Could Blake Treinen be the Dodgers closer (26:18)? ... Steven Matz and Jon Gray are both on the rise (30:50). Who are the rest of the biggest risers inside the top 150 (37:54)? ... The biggest faller has been Max Muncy (46:26). ... Why is Vidal Brujan dropping (48:45)? ... We wrap up with the biggest fallers inside the top 175 picks (55:00). ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Center field. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. Who's rising? Who's falling? Let's talk about it. Welcome in to fantasy baseball today on Wednesday, January 12th, not 20th. Don't want to jump the gun yet. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by my buddies. Scott White and Chris Towers.

And congrats to Scott. First we get the Atlanta Braves. We, he, he gets the Atlanta Braves. Now the Georgia Bulldogs win the national championship. Congrats to you, Scotty. Thank you, Frank. Yeah, it's a strange feeling. I imagine this is sort of what a Boston area fan

must have felt like 15, 20 years ago where it's like, man, I'm just so used to being. sports fan victim that now I don't know what to do with this run of success but like you can't play

that card anymore I really ever again if you think about it I am at roughly the midpoint of my life not to jinx it or anything

I hope a little longer maybe a little longer but you know about halfway through the average life expectancy and then I get this happen to my teams winning in the same year. So I think I'll be dead before I have a chance to accrue that kind of sports victim currency again. I don't think I'll ever have the chance to experience where I was prior to these championships for two of the three teams that I hold dear.

As long as you don't do the Boston sports fan thing where you're like, we're still the underdogs and like don't do that thing you know i remember it's probably five or six years ago i was talking to someone who's just a little bit younger than me and he was doing like a boston sports fans you know we we've been through a lot of heartache and it's like this guy was like 26 at the time and like the red sox won in 2004 so he was like 14 and i mean really even going back to the patriots in 2001 he was like seven The last time that, like, Boston hadn't won a bunch of championships. You don't get to co-op your parents' grief for your personality, all right?

Yeah. Must be nice. Must be nice, Scotty. I mean, I have no idea what it feels like to win championship. Oh, come on. I mean, really, you only root for one good team. You are correct. And they haven't won in, like, 14 years?

I, yeah, no. In all seriousness, look, I've seen enough in my life. That's totally fine. but I'm in a bit of a drought. I mean, the Yankees, the Jets, the Nix, it's kind of a- We love to see it. We really love to see it.

I forgot you were a Jets fan. That is tough. Yeah, it's a little tough. I mean, Yankees, like, it has been an unusually long drought for them. The Rangers won one when you were a kid, right? Were you born? Don't know a single thing about hockey, Chris.

Wayne Gretzky, who's that? Chris, it's really cold in New York right now. How you doing? How are you holding up? I had to turn off my space heater under my desk when we started the podcast because it was making too much noise. And yeah, no, it's fine. It's fine. My dog, for some reason today, decided he needed to go out like four times. And real jerk move by Stephen.

Yeah, pets. But yeah, it's fine. The dog's name is Stephen? Stevie Nicks. But we call him Steve or Stevie or stove. That's right. It always kind of weirds me out. Kevin given like human names like really ordinary

But you're naming it after celebrities and that's a little different I guess Yeah, it's like it's like having a dog named Barry or something That's just the first name that came to my head but pets have a a weird way of trolling humans it it It happens quite often and there's being of which there's there's David Bowie for those who are watching here on our came in his chin Chris's ear I'm sorry for calling it by the way today on the podcast we are going to talk about the biggest 80s RISers and Fallers since the lockout began that's using NFBC, ADP, and I have a few

Hey Real quick items before we actually get to those things. Chris, don't get yourself, don't injure yourself there with David Boy, that seems, I hear the purring in the microphone. That is amazing. Mention the lockout, Scott. Speaking of the lockout, we've got some movement here. MLB is scheduled to make a new core economics proposal to the Players Association this Thursday.

And I'm sure that there will be a lot of, lot of this kind of back and forth, but it's progress and, you know, trying to remain positive here. Yeah. Yeah, no, I, we were just talked, was it just yesterday? The last podcast where I was saying, well, hopefully it's actually before the end of the month and they're just trying not to over promise and under deliver. And I didn't really believe myself when I said that, but it looks like that that may be the case. Now, it doesn't mean they're going to be anywhere close to agreement yet, but I would rather see them at least working to get there as opposed to not doing anything for weeks at a time. Yeah, very happy to see this movement. Hey, real quick, number two,

and I'll throw this one your way, Chris. Camden Yards is apparently changing their dimensions to help reduce home runs. 277 home runs were hit in Baltimore last season, by far the most in baseball. It doesn't help that they're pitching is routinely crap. It's not very good. I think we could say that. raising the left field wall from 7 to 12 feet and apparently are planning to push that wall back as far as 30 feet from home plate. So could help John Means and it could hurt right-handed power

like Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini. Chris, any thoughts here on Camden? I know I'm not Chris, but 30 feet? I hate it. 10 is a lot. I mean, raising your left field wall from 7 to 12 feet is quite a bit. I mean, that's pushing into like

is it no progressive that's not what it's called anymore right yeah it's a progressive field it might be uh what we're that's taller than 12 but yeah but yeah you're starting to get into that kind of area and I mean 30 feet is a really long way

I don't they're going to have to remove the bullpens and all that stuff I don't know I would guess it's going to be kind of angled and so it'll be 30 feet back in one spot but not quite as long everywhere else but right it's best bad news for right-handed hitters in Baltimore. Now, the good news is there aren't that many of them who matter.

I would expect this doesn't really hurt, like Cedric Mullins, especially because I'm not expecting him to hit 30 home runs again, and it's the stolen bases and the overall production that really helps him. But now I haven't I haven't to look into this. I haven't to look into this. So if I can give the numbers. Mullins hit 22 of his 30 home runs at home last year, but only one was to left.

field. He pulled almost all of them. On the other hand, Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini both hit about two-thirds of their home runs at home. And I didn't look to see how many they pulled, but I assume it was the majority. They're right-handed hitters unlike Mullins. So yeah, pretty worried for them, pretty hopeful for John Means, who's an extreme flyball pitcher. Yes. Yeah, I think it's no idea. news for John means. I have no idea

how that park is going to play now. I mean, that's that's, I've never heard of a team. Like Chris said, 30 feet is the maximum. They're going to, it's not going to be uniformly moved 30 feet back, but still, that's if, if I, when I was looking into how many feet it was being pushed back, I was prepared to be shocked if it was as many

as 15, you know? 30, gosh. Yeah. Again, that's as much as 30 feet. Like, that's the furthest they can push it. I don't know if they're going to push it actually that far, but it's, you know, that's the number that's being thrown out there right now. So, uh, definitely would not hurt John Means. I would think it probably hurts Trey Mancini a little bit more than Ryan Malthcastle, just because at least based on last year, he was a little more middling when it comes to like

the quality of contact and stuff like that. But, you know, both of them ranked well above average in terms of, you know, barrel rate and expected slugs. and stuff like that. So I think Mancini was a little more in the just average range. But I think, look, it's easy to overreact to this kind of thing. But you have to remember, it's half their games. And, you know, they'll still hit home runs to the center. They'll still hit home runs the other way.

Like, it's not, it's not like it's, I would expect maybe a difference of like three home runs in expected. output, but even that, you know, the problem with home runs is there's such a rare event that it's hard to separate noise from what the actual impact would be anyway. I just don't like it. Like this kind of thing where like, oh, we're losing because of our park, well, your opponent's play there too. And so whatever effect it has, you would think. And I've seen someone say, they've been drafting a lot of left-handed hitters, and I don't know, like, I don't think you'd change the,

maybe you just change the park every 15 years, depending on what the upcoming crop of players looks like, but I don't know, it just, it seems like a solution in search of a problem for Baltimore, and people like home runs. Yeah, they do indeed. I don't have an issue with it, you know, like trying to get closer to a neutral park.

I was reading more about it, and they have the most home runs hit in Camden Yards, in any other park since they've opened in 1992. So, you know, I think there's only like eight or nine other parks that have been open since that time period. But they have the most home runs hit in their park. So, you know, they're trying to rectify that somewhat. Again, their pitching hasn't been good.

So that's a part of the problem. But maybe this can go towards helping those pitchers. Let's get into ADP, risers, and fallers here for those wondering, how many drafts are actually happening right now? So from October 1st through November 30th, there were 42 drafts. done over at the NFBC from December 1st on post lockout. There have been 72 drafts done. So I would say a decent amount of data.

42 drafts early versus 72 drafts since December 1st. And I conjured up the data. Thank you, Chris, for teaching me how to do some things on Excel to figure this out. And yeah, found out the biggest risers. V-look-up, gang. Yes, V-look-up. And it has completely changed my life. I'm going to...

I told Chris that he's kind of... He's woken to sleep in giant because I have all... all these different kind of things that I want to look into now. That's continuing Al Malkior's his impact on CBS Fantasy, because he taught me that one like eight years ago. Oh, well, thank you. Thank you, Al Malkyore. And speaking of which...

I need to know. I knew you're going to have to teach me, too. I don't even know what it does, but the way Frank is gushing about it, it must be good. Scott, I'm going to share... This is going to make me a lot less valuable to the company. I'm going to share a few Google sheets with you, Scotty, and it kind of... I have everything in one place.

now, it's, it's fun. It's fun when you're trying to look at a bunch of data together for a bunch of different players. But anyway, the biggest risers, we'll kind of move quickly, keyword quickly through some of these players, and then the movement inside the top 50, 150 players, then we'll spend a little bit more time on those. But first up, the biggest riser during this stretch has been Corey Canable, who, unsurprisingly, he signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Phillies just before December and expected as of now to be the, the Phillies closer. We don't know if they're going to make any other moves after the lockout ends, but he was very good in 2021, 25.2 innings, but a 2.45 ERA, 0.97 whip over 10Ks per 9,

and the velocity on the fastball was much closer to where he was pre-Tommy John surgery. So, Scott, are you assuming as of now that Corey Canable is the closer for the Phillies? Yeah, I think, well, obviously, the change in ADP would suggest that that's, that is the widespread assumption and I think Dave Dumbrowski even said

after the signing I can't find the quote now but he said they're not in the market for a closer

after the signing happened something like that it's not a direct quote but that was the gist of it and of course

Cory Kinebel's been pretty high in closer in the past before Tommy John surgery and it's not like you look at the Phillies

roster and I guess Jose Alvarado, that could be an alternative, but they've, that's been tried a few times already, and it hasn't gone well. So, Tector Neris has gone, obviously, Ian Kennedy, he wasn't, that really didn't work out after they got him. And now he's a free agent. So, yeah, I think Corey Kinebel is the odds-on favorite to begin as the Phillies closer.

Chris, you- I could see him making like an Ian Kennedy-esque impact for fantasy, at least. before the trade the kind of season he was having. He missed three months with a lat injury. That's something to keep in mind. But I guess the fact that it's not related to his shoulder or elbow is probably a good sign in that regard. But, you know, we've seen him be an elite fantasy closer for one year. We've seen him be a good fantasy closer for one other year.

So it's hard to know how he's going to hold up to pitching every other day or pitching multiple days in a row, that kind of stuff. But it's a very exciting skill set. He looked really good last season, when we did see him. So I think there's reasons to be optimistic about him. Yeah, and the swinging strike rate really got back on track to 12.7%. The last time we saw him healthy back in 2018, that was 13.2%. So not in the same range as other elite relievers, but close to where he was when, you know, he was a high end closer a couple years ago. This next one is obviously an interesting. situation. It's Marcel O'Suna who's moved up 103 spots to pick 200 and he was given a retroactive 20 game suspension for violating the league's domestic violence policy and not trying to make light of that situation, but I think eventually we're going to have to talk about the realistic possibility that Marcelo Zuna is going to be playing baseball this upcoming season with the Atlanta Braves or with another team. I assume as of now it's going to be with the Braves because he's still on their roster. But in the shortened season, he was amazing. He was the number one outfielder in Roto.

He was the seventh overall player. 338 batting average, 16 homers, 56 RBI in 60 games. Chris, I think... 18 homers, 18 homers. 18 home runs, yeah, over 60. What did I say? 16. 16, okay.

Well, yeah, he had 18 home runs. And Chris, I think this move is warranted. And, you know, I think if we get more confirmation that he's going to play, he's probably going to move up even more. Yeah, I mean, right now we just don't know what the Braves plans are for him, whether they intend to welcome him back, whether they intend to welcome him back as an everyday player. But we've seen, you know, Oduble Herrera is someone who had a domestic violence suspension and the Phillies ultimately did bring him back. It's a different organization. I don't

know if the Braves have any similar situations, but, you know, this is part of the job, right? Like if there's a player who's out there, we have to talk about him if he's going to be fantasy relevant. From what we've seen, Marcelo Zuna can be very, very relevant for fantasy. You know, his upside is probably very similar to Nick Castiano's. And if we knew he was going to be active and playing a full season, I'm not sure how much further down you'd rank him than someone like Castianos. Definitely lower. Yeah.

But so. So like the upside we've seen from Ozuna is really, really high. I have him, how much did he end up playing this past year? Like two months? 48 games. Yeah. He was pretty bad in those games. It was very bad.

It was close to the 60 game sample from the previous year. And it was not good. And he's had a, he's had an up and down career. I have him, I have him 47th right now. And that, that is kind of a fence. straddling ranking, which I try to avoid. But obviously, this is a particularly unusual circumstance. My read on things is that he will be a part of the team in 2022.

And I'm mostly basing that on the statement that the Braves released when MLB revealed the penalties for OZuna and that it was a retroactive suspension. And as far as they were concerned, he was allowed to play again. The statement was, any instance of domestic violence is unacceptable, and we fully support the decision by the commissioner's office regarding Marcel. We are encouraged to know that Marcel has accepted full responsibilities for his actions and is taking the necessary measures to learn and grow from the situation. Reading between the lines, that sounds like they're willing to have them back.

So that's kind of what I'm thinking. And if that's true, I'll have to move him up from 47th in my outfield rank. Kings, but he would probably still be outside my top 30. Yeah, I could see, you know, if we get confirmation that he's going to play, again, the ADP since December 1st is right around pick 200. He probably moves up another 75 spots, you know, gets inside the top 150, but we'll see what happens with that situation. Chris, last year we made fun of you because you would always recommend Alex Cobb for

the stream of the day. And it turns out that you were. just you were forward thinking. You were ahead of all of us because he signs with the San Francisco Giants, which can you really find a better place to sign as a starting pitcher right now? He has moved up 58 spots since December 1st

up to pick 270. So he's still going pretty late. Late round flyer, sleeper with upside right now. And last year he was good. 3-76 ERA, 1-2-6 whip. 98 strikeouts over 93 and a third. Endings pitched over a 50% ground ball rate over a strikeout per inning, which I

mentioned, 11.2 swinging strike. rate and the splitter is the bread and butter pitch 20% swinging shrike rate or better on that splitter three straight seasons the Giants have a way with pitchers like this Chris well I think first of all we should we should show some respect the pitch because I believe it is referred to as the thing so let's because it's it's not really like a true splitter but it's not a change of it's not like the it's not like kevin gossman splitter you know um but yeah the peripherals last season were quite good um that was a big part of why i was interested in him he had a 338 x phip

292 phip um Sierra was right in that range 383 um so yeah i think you kind of look at the collective and you know maybe the the giants can give him a little more help than the angels did and maybe he can be a fantasy relevant starting pitcher. I think he's probably not someone who's worth moving inside of the top 50, just because the position is deep. But, you know, after that, I think in the 60 to 70 range, there's upside there for with Alex Cobb. We have to see him stay healthy too.

He hasn't thrown more than 100 endings since 2018 when he threw 152. So hopefully he can get back on track there. The Giants have done a great job with these reclamation projects. Anthony Descalfani, obviously Kevin Gausman, who's no longer with the team, but, man, they've really done a really good job with these pictures. You could say they're the anti-Orials, which is where he was playing before. If a pitcher signs with the Orioles, you generally just, well, we'll see that guy when he gets out of Baltimore, maybe. Oh, I was just going to, oh, Jordan Lyles was the pitcher that they signed in the off-season. Well, there goes Jordan Lyles. I guess we can't draft him.

Next one up here is Connor, Joe. He's up 54 spots to pick three. 43. I'm taking credit for this one because I've talked about Connor Joe multiple times on this podcast in the offseason Scott. We had Justin Mason on and he was all over Cedric Mullins last year. I was like, oh, who's this year's Cedric Mullins? And I mentioned Lane Thomas as a possibility. I like him quite a bit. And I mentioned Connor Joe. He was leading off. I thought I mentioned Connor Joe. Maybe that was my pick. I don't know. Maybe you did. You agreed with me. Maybe we both did. But I do like Conner Joe quite a bit. And he's like Frank Schwendell, 29-year-old journeyman. He's performed well in the minors, and he was good last year.

He played 63 games, 285 batting average, eight homers and 848 OPS, walks a lot, didn't strike out much, lots of line drives. He was leading off for the Rockies. Scott, I think he just continues to move up, especially if we get any confirmation that he is going to play every day for the team.

Yeah, yeah, I mean, that's really what it all rests on for me is because he had entered that place where, okay, he's our lead-off hitter. did such a good job. I forget who he was filling in for. I think it was maybe Charlie Blackman. I forget who was injured. He came in as an injury replacement and, you know, they decided to keep him in the line if they were even going to play him in center field. And then he got hurt right away and missed the rest of the season. So we didn't get to see that narrative play out in a in a natural way. And of course, the Rockies, the Rockies aren't known for,

decision-making, particularly when it comes to the fantasy game. And so you don't want to put too much faith in them to make the right decision here. But of course, anyone who gets a chance to play regularly at Coors Field is going to have sleeper appeal, especially one who made the kind of impact he did last year for the couple months he was around. And especially one who throughout not just what we solved him last year, but his minor league career exceptional plate discipline for Connor Joe.

It's not another Sam Hilliard situation where he's just going to bury himself in strikeouts. So, you know, potential to be a big sleeper here. You know, forgive me,

but I, you know, obviously I wasn't on the podcast late last season, so I have to ask, where did he come from? Where did he go? Like,

where did he come from, Connor Joe? Oh, Chris. Yeah. Sorry. Let's move on to the next one. This is what you've been missing, folks. Yeah, I mean, look, this was an element of the podcast that we are definitely missing.

I'm not sure that Scott and I were coming up with Dr. Seuss rhymes or anything. My mom, McCrott, I drool. Next one up here is O'Neill Cruz. He's up 34 spots to pick 229. I tweeted out a screenshot of, you know, the biggest risers in ADP. And someone actually responded to me that in their most recent two drafts, that O'Neill Cruz was drafted in the 150 to 175 to. range, which is just bonkers, in my opinion.

I think this is just solely based on the steamer projection, Scott, where people are just kind of freaking out because he's projected for 281 batting average, 20 homers, 14 steals, over 110 games. Like, on a per game basis, that is a near star player for fantasy. So I'm not sure that he's going to get there. Again, he's a highly regarded prospect. I don't want to downplay that possibility, but these projections are pretty lofty for him. it's the 281 batting average that really gets me.

Like, he's not going to hit 281. I feel very confident saying that a 6'7 rookie is not going to hit 281. The strikeouts were surprisingly not bad throughout his minor league career considering his size, but they got worse every step up the ladder, and they weren't great by the end of his minor league career. However, he had developed monster power potential by the end, as many scouts thought he would. He was a viable base stealer. I still think 14 and 110 games is probably about as optimistic as you could hope for there.

But he'll be some bit of a factor in stolen bases. But then, you know, there's also the hurdle of playing time. He did come up at the end of last year for two games. He hit the hardest, he hit a ball harder than any Pirates player ever has in the Stackcast era in those two games. So, you know, he made an impression. But he still has to win a job in spring training and considering the Pirates aren't competing for anything. I don't know. I don't think that's a sure thing.

Now, I mean, the projection has him for only 110 games, so I guess it's not saying that either. But to target him in drafts, you're obviously hoping he does. Blake Trinan, next one up here. He's up 32 spots to pick 182. And Scott, I think this is partially closers getting pushed up in this format right now. And I think people just believing there's a realistic chance that Kenley Jansen could sign elsewhere this offseason. Yeah. Yeah, it does.

Look, any free agent who hasn't signed yet, and this pains me to say as a Braves fan who has never wanted a player to stick around more than I want Freddie Freeman to stick around, I would say that any player who didn't sign before the lockout, there are real questions as to what the market looks like for him. And it's, you know, the Dodgers have seemed content to bring Kenley Janssen back multiple times in the past.

But maybe that's not so true anymore. And Blake Trinan, like, he had a huge season as a setup man. You know, he had that one great year as a closer in Oakland where he looked like the best reliever in baseball and then kind of regressed. It was more of a, you know, back to being more sort of a middle reliever type. But he was dominant again last year more so than, you know, Jansen had a fine year. But I would say Blake Trine was even better. So I could see the Dodgers going that route.

It'd be kind of weird for the Dodgers to promote a backup closer to closer because they're the Dodgers, but they'd let Corey Seeger go. And they let somebody else go, too? I don't know. They haven't been behaving in very Dodgers-like ways. They re-sign Chris Taylor, which is kind of a move they did once Corey Seeger signed with the Rangers. Did they lose anyone else?

I don't think so. I know they signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal. I think that was some kind of like avoiding arbitration type things so Yeah, I look I think it's I think you're right it would be weird to see them kind of promote a backup but in this case I mean the backup is pretty damn good and he has closing experience so yeah Blake trying in this past season 1.99 ERA 0.98 whip. He was awesome They let Scherzer go to the met that's what I was thinking right how can we forget back Scherzer You know I will say with him if they bring back

sorry my train of thought got derailed Kenley Jansen if they bring back Kenley Jansen I would bet Kenley Jansen's still going to be the closer though oh for sure that it's one of those things that fantasy players have been doing for like four years now of like oh Kenley Jansenley Janssen's not that good he's going to lose the job this year and

like if he's back in Los Angeles for any amount of money he's going to be the closer Yeah, he kind of had a bounce back season two Yeah In terms of velocity and strikeout rate And he looked he looked It looked like he had kind of Regained some of what he lost

Which maybe he priced himself out of the What the Dodgers are comfortable with, I don't know I do want to mention O'Neill Cruz's strikeout rate specifically last year in the miners Was better than I thought it was over 20% But it wasn't like bad So I still say he's not going to hit 280 one Well if he hits that steamer projection

I mean that's that's a similar projection over 150 games to like Probably not that far of what Cedric Mullins is projected for right talking about a second round player right if you really hit two 80 with a 30 home or 20 steel pace So yeah that's really really aggressive that's Better than a lot of highly touted prospect get from projection systems. So I would... If O'Neill Cruz hits $260, that would be optimistic to me.

Like if he does that, it's probably going to have a great year. But I wouldn't count on more than that. And I would just caution that, you know, it's not that dissimilar to Cibrian Hayes last season where, I mean, we saw Brian Hayes actually for a little bit more than we saw. I mean, what?

He got like 90-played appearances? So, you know, we actually had more to go on and Cabrion Hayes kind of fell on his face. Injuries played a part in that too. But, you know, Pirates haven't had the best track record when it comes to their young guys of late. Next up we have two starting pitchers who have similarly moved up

and into a close range as well. Stephen Matt's up 28 spots. John Gray up 28 spots to pick 257 and 263 respectively for those two starting pitchers. Stephen Matt's signs with the St. Louis Cardinals who have the best defense in baseball. I think they had like three or four gold glovers this past season. And then John Gray signed a four-year deal with the Texas Rangers. We get him out of course field.

We still don't know exactly what that's going to do to his pitches and his movement and, you know, his ability to bounce back. I mean, it's just so weird going from Corse Field to anywhere else in baseball. So we'll see how that affects him overall. But, I mean, there's always been hope that if he got out of Corse Field, out of Colorado, that there could be more on the horizon here for John Gray. So Chris, I'm putting you on the clock. Who would you rather have Stephen Mats or John Gray? I think John Gray kind of has to be the answer

just for the potential strikeouts that he would bring to the table that Stephen Mats probably can't. It's interesting John Gray has always been one of those if we just get him out of course, but he's actually been slightly better for his career at home. So it's always been hard to know what to make of that, But we know about the course field hangover effect. We know about just how much pitching at course field in general, you know, kind of changes the way you have to pitch.

So I don't know if you can just say, well, he had a 465 IRA on the road for his career. So he's probably not that good. I think he's a really talented pitcher. And I do think he's someone who probably like 250, you're talking about one of your last round picks in a 12-team league. I would say that's a great way to spend that pick, and I would be surprised if that's what he costs, especially after last season making his slider, you know, really his, you know,

it's always been his primary secondary pitch, but he almost threw it as often as his fastball last season. And that is a really, really good pitch for him. So that could be a big thing, especially playing in what is a pretty good pitcher park. Big hope for John Gray. and I've seen I've seen I've seen I've seen Inoceras say this too so this isn't just coming from me I think you know Sarah's smarter than me

so I was I was comforted to see him saying the same sort of thing I was saying is that to succeed at Coorsfield John Gray kind of had to neuter what made him such a big prospect in the first place he really had to simplify his arsenal and his approach just because certain pitches don't work the same at Coors Field. You know, that's really the bigger problem for pitchers than even the whole Babbitt issue that's created there. So he's been doing that a long time and no idea if he's even capable of recapturing

what he used to have before joining the Rockies. You know, obviously just leaving Coors Field is a good thing too. I imagine usability. It'll probably be there for him. He'll be at least a streamer type because he was practically that in Colorado. But like there is this chance that he rediscovered what made him

this third overall pick out of college and really takes off. I think there's a chance of that. I actually like each of the starting pitchers we've mentioned to this point. I like Matt's too. I don't think he has as much upside as John Gray, but I think a pretty high floor,

especially with that defense behind him. I like Alex Cobb, as I mentioned, and John Gray with that strikeout upside. Scott, who would you rather have of those three? Matt's, Cobb, John Gray. Cobb. And I really don't understand the Stephen Matt's thing. There are some people who swear he should be

in my top 40 starting pitchers, and we're disappointed that I left him out. Do these people realize Stephen Matt's 30? I don't know. I don't think he should be a top 40 starting pitcher, but look, at the end of your draft, you're drafting for upside, right? No doubt about it in my mind,

John Gray and Alex Cobb have more upside than Stephen Mats. I think if you're doing deeper drafts right now and you're looking for someone who has a safer floor later on in your draft, I think Stephen Matt's can be that guy. He's battled injuries, but for the most part, I think he's going to give you a high 3s ERA,

a serviceable whip, you know, just under a strikeout per inning, again, with a really, really good defense behind him. So I think he could be able Barco Gonzalez is good. The thing that's tough about him is He shares a lot of similarities with Andrew Heaney In terms of his approach they both throw sinkers

Chris don't wish that primary fastballs Don't wish that evil on Stephen Mats come on Chris They throw sinkers up in the zone Which actually leads to a pretty high whiff rate for their sinkers Relative to all sinkers But it's still a sinker and you're still throwing it high in the zone So that's why Stephen Matt and Andrew Heaney, that plays a big part in why those guys are so homer prone, or tend to be at least. All right.

I've got a few more risers that I want to get to, really the ones that are moving up the most inside of the top 150. But before we get to that, I want to thank everybody for listening and watching us. If you didn't know, you can subscribe to our YouTube channel, YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. You hit that little notification bell and you'll get notification every time we either go live or we drop a video. And for anyone out there who's not, you know, following us on Apple Podcast, Spotify, we would appreciate that. So thank you very much. And a reminder to that we have a FBT reunion coming on tomorrow's podcast. Adam Azor, Nando Defino, joining Scott White and myself tomorrow. So again, I don't know how much fantasy information you're going to get out of this

one. We're going to have some fun. We'll play some games. But yeah, definitely be around for that because it's going to be a lot of fun. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll get to the rest of these risers on fantasy baseball today. All right, so the biggest movers inside of the top 150, Justin Verlander, up 22 spots to pick 107. Let's move a little bit quicker on these so that we can get to the followers as well. Scott, I know your thoughts about Justin Verlander. Chris, we haven't heard from you all offseason regarding him. Verlander is going to be 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery by spring training.

Obviously 18 months by the regular season. the number one overall player back in 2019. How far do you think that this could actually climb? He's approaching the top 100. Yeah, he'll be 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery. He'll be 39 years removed from being born. But yeah, the last time we saw him, he was arguably not the best pitcher in baseball

because Jacob de Grom exists, but as close as you can get. And given the volume that he gave you, that's the concern, though, is the volume, right? Coming back from the injury, given his age, There's so many question marks, but I think he can be effective. It's just really hard to see him giving you that 220 inning season, which is something we've kind of, I don't know, have come to expect,

but certainly come to understand as part of Justin Burlander's range of outcomes. It probably isn't this season. And so how effective can he be coming back? Impossible to say, an impossible player to rank. We know how good he can be, but I don't know. Are there any, can you guys think of any, comps for a 39-year-old coming back from Tommy John's surgery? If you gave me long enough too, probably, but not on the...

Well, maybe like Chris Carpenter, I don't think he was quite that old, but... Yeah. He came back and had a really good season in his late 30s for the Cardinals. But, yeah, I mean, even 200 innings would be a record for a pitcher first back from Tommy John's surgery. I think Stephen Strasbourg has the record. Or, no, wait, it's Matt Harvey. Matt Harvey has the record for...

innings from a pitcherback for Tommy. I think either one of those is the comp you want. Yeah, sorry, go ahead. Yeah, Seamer. Steamer has Verlander for 175 endings.

I think that's probably optimistic. But we'll see. I mean, as long as, whenever he's been healthy, he's been a workhorse in the past. That's the thing for me is like, it's probably not going to be 175.

Probably not. I think it's probably going to be either less than 100 or close to 200. Like, it's really hard to see middle ground there unless he sprains his ankle and misses a month

but in terms of like it either goes disastrously wrong or it's probably pretty good yeah they have some depth there they have Christian Javier in the bullpen who they can use as a starter too so if they wanted to come up with like a phantom I else stint or maybe you know skip him through the rotation a few times maybe go six men to kind of keep him fresh and space him out I think those are all possibilities for the Houston

Carbner nearly won the Siam in that first season back. He finished second, 192.2.2 innings, 2.24 ERA. So that 192.2. innings was technically more than Harvey had in the year. I'm thinking if he had 187-ish. But he threw a pitch in the playoffs. But, well, actually, I just think it was Carpenter came back late the previous season. So he wasn't full.

Okay. He wasn't immediately back from Tommy John surgery. Chris Taylor is the next one up here. He's moved up 19 spots to pick 141, which I think makes sense because Corey Seeger has signed with the Rangers, so Taylor should play every day. He was very good this past season. I don't really know that there's much more to add on him.

So we will move on to Tyler Stevenson, who's up 17 spots to pick 147. Scott, do you think that this is maybe moving up too aggressively inside the top 150? Obviously, Tucker Barnhart was traded away back in November, and, you know, Stevenson has some prospect pedigree and, you know, could potentially be hitting in the middle of, I don't think, a great Reds lineup,

but it's a great place. a hit. Yeah, I'm trying to see where I haven't ranked real quick. I have him 184th, so versus 147. I mean, that might just, that's, that's, that's pretty high. That's pretty high. 147 is about where I have. You've got catchers generally kind of high and noticed in going through your rankings. Well, if you're saying that about me and I have them 40 spots lower than the ADP here for Tyler Stevenson, that's a, that really says something. So, yeah, he's a breakout candidate, but, you know, his bat-at-ball data wasn't as impressive as the actual production in his split role behind the plate with Tucker Barnhart. And I think people are being a little too optimistic with this ranking. I won't be drafting much of Stevenson. Like, I'd rather have Mitch Garver and just hope he's standing. healthy, then bank on this breakthrough for, you know, bank on Tyler Stevenson becoming more than just part of that blob of catchers that fills out, that rounds out every mixed league roster,

you know, the Sean Murphy's of the world, you know, him being part of that group. Because he, last time we saw him in the minors, really, was 2019 when he was 22 years old and played 89 games and had a 782 OPS, which is not that far. off from what he did last season. We just don't know what happened in the intervening time and whether, you know, he developed, whether he stagnated. But the underlying stats from last season, like you said, Scott, not particularly impressive. And I think he's probably like 150-ish sounds way too high for Tyler Stevens.

I didn't like most about him was the ground ball rate, 49.6% last year. But you look at his minor league. profile and he never really hit that many ground balls. He's routinely hit a lot of line drives. So I think there's a chance that those ground balls can come down a little bit. And then maybe as a result, we see a little bit more power. But yeah, even with that, I think this is probably an optimistic rank on Tyler Stevenson. The last one I want to mention is Josh Bell, who has moved up 11 spots to pick 134. And I think early in the off season, people just kind of looked at his, you know, surface level stats and didn't realize

that he was awful in April like a lot of hitters were. And then from May 1st on, Josh Bell was awesome. 279 batting average, 25 home runs with an 865 OPS. So if he can just kind of carry that over

heading into next year, then I think he's actually a fine value where he's going at Pick 134. But you know what we say. What do you say? Full season statistics are more predictive. But April was just so crazy.

like nobody was good except for crap the example's not thinking of me there's like this one player who was awesome I got it it was J.D. Martinez got yeah yeah that works that's not who I'm thinking of but yeah there was somebody who

oh you're mean Mercedes that's who I was thinking of he was the only guy who hit in April basically and then he was terrible the rest of the way yeah the underlying numbers for Josh Bell are still strong they're not quite 2019 but still didn't strike out much,

still hit the ball really hard. I do want to take a look at his splits and see how that... He was fine against lefties last season. Yeah, he's typically bad against lefties, and at the start of the season, he wasn't playing against them. Ryan Zimmerman was playing for him,

but yeah, as the season went along, he actually got a lot better. A, who knows if Zimmerman's going to be back? B, we're hopeful there's NLDH. C, they started playing Josh Bell and the outside. outfield late in the year, which is what he primarily played in the minors. So clearly they were more invested in getting his bat in the lineup.

So that's, I don't know, I may be, I may do it for a third straight year to tell everybody to draft Josh Bell, even though it's let us, let us down the previous two. I wouldn't say that it let you down last year, Scott. I have people dropped him with him. But people dropped him. Right. Yeah. I had him in deeper leagues and I held on.

So, I mean, you know, you don't really have a choice there, but, you know, he, He came through. He was very good. I think he's fine. You know, if he's someone you wait back on, you know, back-end starter for a first base or a corner infielder in a Roto league, perfectly fine with that for Josh Bell. Let's hit on some of the biggest fallers here.

And very obviously, Max Muncie has fallen 58 spots to pick 160 during this stretch. And we just don't really have a clue when it comes to this UCL injury that he's dealing with. You know, there was an interview. He went on MLB Network back in, I think it was, either October or November, and he said that he's not healing as quickly as he wanted to, and he also revealed that it was a partial tear of his UCL. So these are all pretty scary things, and it makes sense that Max Muncie is falling, and I think Scott he'll continue to fall.

Yeah, I moved him way down in my rankings. I'm going to need to see him looking right in spring training before I move him back up. And I'm not optimistic. that being said you know Shohayotani was pretty awesome hitting through a fully torn UCL

Glaber Torres had a torn UCL and had Tommy John surgery he came back and was the same guy that was what has a prospect did Miguel Suno have Tommy John that he was a prospect that sounds familiar

Salvador Correz had Tommy John when he was closer to Max Muncie's age and he's looked better than Everson returning but the issue is lost time more than anything well no no don't know they come see like surgery what munsey hasn't had the surgery right exactly so it just kind of lingers over him and and you don't know you don't know when they're going to shut him down for the year yeah or he may not or he may not and you bring up the otani example and if there is the dh and then oh maybe they'll just play munsey there all year but if if if they were that if they were thinking his

UCL isn't going to let him play the field. They would have just, he would have just had the surgery at the start of the off season, right? So I don't know. I don't know. It's messy. I think there's a chance where if this goes too far the other way,

so it's, you know, over the past month and a half, he's dropped 58 spots. I would assume that continues, you know, to drop further. Then, you know, I mean, if you can kind of pick him up as a bench option and then just kind of wait on it and see what happens,

then I think there could be profit on that. So I just keep that in mind, but obviously we need more information when it comes to Max Muncie. This one's kind of interesting, Vidal Bruhan. He's a prospect with the Tampa Bay raise and he came up last year for a short period of time and I remember the first game he played

and I think he got a hit or he walked and then he stole second base, he stole third base and we were all like, oh man, it's happening for Vidal Bruhan. And then it didn't happen for Vidal Bruhan. He has dropped 45 spots to pick 328, so more of a late round option, a very late round option. But it just doesn't really make sense because Joey Wendell was traded from the Tampa Bay Rays back in November.

He went over to the Marlins. So I'm not saying Vidal Bruhan's going to play, but there's at least a chance. There's a chance that there's playing time available here. So I don't know, Chris, this one's kind of interesting with Vidal Bruhan. Yeah, I mean, part of it was he hit the seven home runs in May of last season and then got called up.

And so it was like, oh, boy, is he really like taking a big leap? then he hit five more home runs the rest of the season, including the majors. So it's really tough with the raise because you never know. Even if he breaks camp with the roster, is he going to be an everyday player? But I think the skill set is interesting enough with the speed especially that if it looks like he's going to be on the roster on opening day, 328 should be a steal. You know, like Miles Straw is going a lot higher than that. and Miles Straw is a lead off hitter

as opposed to what I expect Bruhan to be if he is on the club which is utility guy so yeah I mean this is actually pretty close to where I haven't ranked there's like seven spots behind

where I have him ranked 321 I'm kind of a Bruhan downer because yeah I mean the the hopes for power development quickly evaporated last year and so you're talking about a guy with good contact skills who's really, really fast.

And that's just not a profile that you see get much playing time in the majors these days, particularly not for team like the race. I think they'll value his defensive versatility, but I don't see him getting tons of playing time. Could be wrong. That's just in that organization especially, I think people are a little too optimistic.

stick there. Well, maybe not anymore. I don't know. A few others here that I'll mention, but don't really want to talk much about. Carlos Santana, he's dropped 44 spots to pick 477. He played through a quad injury of the final two months of the season, and prospects are coming. Nick Prado, we talked about last week. Vinnie Pass Quantino is a first base slash DH type prospect as well. So there are many on the way for the Kansas City Royals. I think it looks pretty bad here for Carlos Santana. Chris Paddock has dropped 43 spots to pick 411. A ton of injuries last year.

Ineffectiveness. Not really sure what his role is at this point. Is he going to be in the rotation? We know that the top four spots are going to be occupied by Musgrove, Darvish, Blake Snell, Clevenger, as long as those guys are healthy. And just before the lockout, they were close to signing Nick Martinez. Nick Martinez, ring a bell. Yeah, I mean, he used to pitch for the Texas Rangers a couple of years ago.

He went over to, I believe it was Korea, reinvented himself, was really good there. and now kind of has this like Miles Michaelist thing going on where he's trying to work his way back into the majors. They were close to signing him and it sounded like they wanted to use him as a starter. So I really just don't know what this does for Chris Paddock. So time will tell there. Brandon Marsh.

I think he could use a change of scenery. But I will point out his curveball was actually really good last season. He's still only third about 12% of the time. But it was actually 36% whiff rate, 225 expected Wobah allowed. maybe he's too fastball reliant. I can't remember who we were talking about yesterday, but they're, I can't remember. But it's hard to be effective throwing your fastball 60% of the time.

And he's got potentially two useful and including one elite secondary pitch. Yeah. So look, glass half full. If you want to try to pick this guy up in like a deep dynasty league, you can probably get him for nothing right now. Yeah. That's. It's first. Chris, I had a lot of paddock last year, so I watched him, and he was just, he was bad, man.

He just, he had nothing. It was, there was no confidence, no conviction in his pitches. He just, like, this was someone who relied on pinpoint control, and he just didn't have it. He, like, missing spots within the zone, and then when he did that, he would get hit hard. It was just, it was rough to watch. I think he could use just like a new scenery. I've trade him to the Marlins. That's what everyone likes to do, right? Jesus Lazzardo, I actually just took

He probably sign Jorge Julio and trade him back That's true He was originally in Marlon It's true I just took Jesus Lazzardo in one of my drafts So hoping for a bounce back here Although it was Fernando Rodney No Jorge

Oh Fernando Rodney Sorry sorry Oh man A few outfielers here Brandon Marsh has dropped 43 spots A lot of strikeouts last year Does have some prospect pedigree Little power little speed

I think that one's kind of interesting Not really sure why he's dropping But he is dropping Aaron Hicks, another one. He's dropped 42 spots. He's going very late in drafts right now. A bunch of injuries, but as of now, the way the Yankees roster is constructed, he would be an everyday player until he gets hurt right now.

So we'll see what happens once the lockout ends there. James and Tyone, another one. He's dropped 30 spots. Scott, I think people just didn't realize that he's likely not going to be ready for opening day. And on top of that, he wasn't really great last year either. Yeah, he wasn't. It was a disappointment. He did reinvent himself in the ways that were promised.

More four-seemers, a good spin on the four-seamer. Going just off memory now. But the results weren't there. It wasn't getting strikeouts, really. And yeah, I don't have that much hope for him anymore. The biggest moves inside of the top 175 picks, Lance McCullors has dropped 38 spots to pick 167, and we're still waiting to learn more about this arm injury that he's dealing with.

He got shut down in the postseason with a forearm injury. Obviously, he's had a bunch of arm injuries in the past, so we're really just kind of waiting to learn more about this situation. But Chris, it doesn't surprise me that Lance McCullors has dropped this much. Yeah, I think if you draft him, it's with the intent. of him being a bench or late, you know, low, low end starting pitcher who, you know, if you get 20 great starts out of him, if you get 20 good starts out of him, you're thrilled with that outcome. So that range seems fine.

Luis Severino, Scott, not really sure what to expect from him either. He returned last year. He made some relief appearances. Actually pitched in the Yankees wild card game against the Red Sox. And he looked pretty good in that game, but he's dropped 22 spots to pick one 75, I have a theory. I think people early in draft season, they just saw the name Luis Severino, and they got excited and they drafted him, and then they realized, all right, well,

you know, he's coming back from all these injuries. We haven't seen him in a while. And so now it's kind of taken a little bit of a step back. What do you think about Severino? Usually people forget about the Severino types. I have him, so he's 175 since the lockout, and he was going 22 spots earlier. So I actually have him about where he was going earlier.

I don't think that was too high for him. I don't think it's a, like, is it a slam dunk? Have the Yankees said yes, he's a part of our rotation to begin next year? I don't think that's the case. And obviously, if I'm assuming it with the ranking, but obviously if it turns out not to be the case, I'll be downgrading him quite a bit. Yeah, I think that's the, it's a fair assumption as of now.

Rossor Resource has obviously Garrett Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortez, and Domingo Hermann to start the year. And then whenever James and Tyone is ready, he'll, you know, jump into that mix.

And whoever between Herman and Nestor Cortez will probably get removed from the rotation. But yeah, I would say Severino is safe. At least I think so. Yeah, I mean, that's, he's still on the prime of his career, and he was top 10 type pitcher in fantasy before he got hurt.

So I don't know, I think, you know, around 150 where I have him is, is a solid enough discount to take a shot of that kind of upside. Yeah, I love the, like, bottom half of the top 200, or bottom, like, 150 to 200 range where you can take that flyer in Luis Ceverino, take that flyer on Noah Cindergarde. I like that range quite a bit. Mike Clevenger a little earlier, maybe. But I like the idea of taking shots on those guys in that range. Let's say a 12-team league, Chris, what would you be comfortable with those guys as your SP-5,

the last pitcher in your starting rotation, or more as like a bench option? I think it would be really fun to get one of them as your SP-5 and then one of them as a bench option. The upside potential for that is really, really high, and it'll cost you very little. Yeah. I mean, your typical 12th to 15th round pick in a 12-te-team league,

your typical player is going to bust. You know, you're not going to get much from those guys. Those guys are potentially drops. So I think, yeah, I love the idea of taking Mike Clevenger. Did I mention him as well? Yes. Yeah. So, yeah, I think that's a good plan.

I'm going to do quite a bit of that. The last one I want to talk about, Chris, you were big on Ian Anderson last season. and he has dropped 14 spots since December 1st, down to about pick 1,45. So it's not a huge drop, but, you know, about a round. And I think people are really just kind of deep diving him and realizing that while he had a 3.58 ERA, everything, all the underlying numbers were much worse. And the strikeout to walk ratio was just not nearly as good as it was the year before.

So where are you at on your boy Ian Anderson? higher than the consensus or at least that ADP. I think he's a fine pitcher in the 10th round range. I think probably a number four in that range makes sense. He is, look, he's super young. We've seen one partial season and then one almost full season from him. He made 30 starts overall. He's got a 325 ERA and a 1-2 whip.

I think he's really talented. I think he's got some really good second. secondary pitches. And, you know, yeah, he wasn't great last season, the underlying numbers especially, but I don't know. I think it's a worthwhile bet on talent when it's that cheap. Like, you don't often see 23-year-old top prospects who have succeeded in the majors dropping to the 12th round or the 10th round range. Yeah, this could turn out to be a mistake. If it's kind of just a leap of faith pick where maybe you don't look at the underlying numbers as much. It's just you watch him pitch and you can tell that He has pretty good stuff.

Scott, what do you think about that? Maybe kind of turning a blind eye to the ex-fip of Sierra for Ian Anderson and just kind of taking that leap of faith. I am not so hopeful that there's another step for him to take, but I think he's a solid pitcher just as he is. I mean, it's not that big of a leap of faith. If you treat him like a floor play, a ton of ground balls, about a strikeout per inning, that's, you know,

that's going to be a guy you're starting more often than not. if he is able to find the right pitch mix to take advantage of that change-up more. Maybe use the curveball a little better. It's a pretty curveball to look at. But it's not a big, like, it's not a put-away pitch for him

the way the change-up has been. So, you know, maybe. But I'm saying at his cost, you're not even really counting on a step forward. Yeah, and the thing is, one thing that I think is interesting about him is the change-up was a new pitch for him last season. He didn't really have that coming up as a prospect.

He was a fastball, curveball guy. And so the fact that the change-up is this good. And it's a weird change-up. There was a really good piece on fan graphs about his change-up and how different it is from nearly every other pitcher's change-up. But if he can figure out a way to make that curveball a little better, like Scott said, I think he could take off. Yeah, if he can ever find a way to,

lower the walks too. I wouldn't bet on it because that's basically who he's been even throughout his minor league career. But if it ever were to happen, then obviously that's how we could see Ian Anderson take an even further step forward as well. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow with Nando and Adam. It's going to be a riot. Bye-bye.