Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Blake Snell Signs With The Dodgers! - INSTANT REACTION (11/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

Blake Snell and the Dodgers are in agreement on a five-year, $182 million contract (3:00)! What does this mean for Snell's Fantasy value? ... The Dodgers' rotation is STACKED (8:10)! ... Snell's early ADP will rise (13:56). ... Have the Dodgers broken baseball (16:16)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Our first emergency podcast of the offseason goes to Blake Snell. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Wednesday, November 27th. Right at midnight, Scott. Breaking News. I am Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and The Rich Get Richer. The reigning, defending, undisputed world champion Los Angeles Dodgers have made the first big splash of the offseason, signing Blake Snell to a week.

five-year, $182 million deal. How? How can they afford this? How can they do this? Well, those Shohei Otani deferrals, this is where things start to get interesting. They were, you know, just the best team in baseball. 98 games in the regular season they won. Go on to win the World Series, and now they're signing Blake Snell.

So, Scott, I'll let you get into the analysis on the Snell side of things. You could throw the numbers at us and everything. When he's healthy, when he's on, he's one of the best. and now he's joining the Dodgers. Yeah, he's joining the Dodgers. Can't ask for a better destination. It's, it's, you know, I'm not really sure the venue. I'm not even sure the supporting cast matters that much

because it seems like over the past three years, the only one who can beat Blake Snell is Blake Snell. And yeah, when he's on, he's untouchable. We, of course, know that from his say, Young winning 2023 season when he had a 118 ERA and 105 whip

over his final 22 starts. And I got to tell you this past year, it was shorter the span where he dominated, but it really wasn't any less dominant over his final 14 starts

this past year. Blake Snell had a 123 ERA, 123 over 14, over 14 starts. After 118 in 22 stars the previous year. He had a 0.78 whip to go with that 123 RA in 2024 in case you needed that additional number. So yeah, I mean, he's really good, it would seem. Of course, there are those rough stretches early in the season.

That's been a four-year trend now. but clearly the Dodgers weren't deterred by it. They're paying him like an ace. And I don't think we should be deterred by it either. This is what I've come around to with Blake Snell. We can ring our hands over those lousy Aprils and Mays when he just looks totally unusable. But in the end, the numbers are there

and they're definitively ace-like over the past three seasons. Good start and good starts and bad. Blake Snell has a 282 ERA, 116 whip, 12K per nine. Ace. That's an ace, exactly. And like, you look at the individual pitch characteristics and all the underlying stats. They support it too. It's a bigger head scratcher why he struggles for those.

you know, half a dozen to a dozen start stretches early in the year, then why he's so dominant when he's dominant. Blake Snell is just good. And, hey, maybe with the Dodgers he'll be able to afford, he'll be able to avoid, I should say, that early hole. But even if he doesn't, by now, I think we can take a deep breath and trust that the numbers will be there in the end. Clearly the Dodgers are.

Like I said, they're paying him like an end. ace. They're the marquee franchise right now. I think we should follow their lead. I have Blake Snell as a top 10 pitcher for next season, and I had him there even before he signed with the Dodgers. Yes. And part of this deal, 182 million over five years, comes with a $52 million signing bonus. So the AAV on the deal is actually going to come down a little bit for Blake Snell. And the Dodgers just keep finding ways to kind of finagle their way around the luxury tax, whether it's deferrals to Otani, and now they're, you know,

giving this huge signing bonus to Blake Snell. And, you know, I wonder if other teams will kind of join in in doing things like that. But for now, yes, they are the leaders in the clubhouse and they're only getting better with Blake Snell. You know, Scott, I know it's our job to kind of find things to talk about with Blake Snell and react to this,

but I think you hit it on the head, right? It really just comes down to Blake Snell. I was trying to look into, like, ballpark factors. I mean, I guess if there's one thing that could play negatively, Dodger Stadium was number two in home run park factor for the past three years and Oracle Park was 30th, but I don't really think it matters. You know, I agree. I think as long as Blake Snell is healthy and he's on, he's really just one of the best pitchers in baseball. If you needed added fuel to the fire,

seven career starts in Dodgers Stadium for Blake Snell, a 203 ERA, a 107 whip, 39 strikeouts over 31 innings pitched. And you have to imagine a bulk of those have come in the past couple of seasons with him in San Diego and San Francisco, and he was going up against that stacked Dodgers team. So again, it's, I don't really think there's anything to do with like the environment. It's just, yeah, if Blake Snell's there and good to go, it's, he's one of the best. Yeah, the thing I wonder about this from a fantasy perspective is if this might allay fears that some people have about Blake Snell's irregularities, that the Dodgers are willing to take him on for the next five years.

I don't know. To me, it counts for something, but I was an optimist. I was a believer, a Blake's knell believer in the first place. So maybe not. Time will tell. The other thing, though, is it's kind of a crowded rotation picture, right? And so maybe the Dodgers are factoring in, okay, well, yeah, we could, we could, we we could just look at the full season stat line

rather than breaking it down. That doesn't concern us, but Blake Snell has missed his share of starts over the years too. And so they're just kind of they're building up this stockpile of pitching for the inevitable Blake Snell IL stint, the inevitable

Tyler Glassnell, IEL Stint Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He hasn't really proven his durability yet. Shohei Otani. We expect them back pitching in 2025, but we don't know exactly when. It doesn't sound like it's going to be at the start of the year. So those four are obviously locked in when they're healthy. But then, you know, they got Bobby Miller. They have Dustin May coming back from injury, Tony Gonsolin.

I'm sure Clayton Kirshall will be back. Yeah, it's a good chance of that. Landon Nack. Justin Robleski, we saw both of them make a fair number of starts this past year. And I don't think they're out on Roki Sasaki, Scott. Of course not. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it's not like that's going to be a big financial burden. So no guarantee that he winds up with the Dodgers.

But yeah, he could be there too. So I would say the one who takes the biggest hit with this news is Bobby Miller. Because we don't know, we don't know how consistent his role is going to be now. even if he's pitching well, he may get crowded out there. Maybe not. I mean, if everything lines up just right by the time Otani's ready to return, somebody's going on the I.L. Maybe it'll work out fine, but I don't think you can approach Bobby Miller this season

with the expectation he's just going to be starting every fifth day. Yeah. Definitely knocks his value down. The fact that the Dodgers are building up this depth, it almost allows them to, A, run a six-man rotation, which I'm sure they want to do anyway with Glassnow being as injury prone as he is,

and Yamamoto previously working, you know, on a six-day schedule in Japan, and, you know, Otani coming back from injury. So they have that. They probably want to go with the six-man. And again, this kind of builds in, you know, if they want to give guys IL stints, breaks throughout the season, this kind of affords them that luxury by adding.

another elite arm in Blake Snell. So I almost wonder if you just overall expect Dodgers pitchers to make less starts. I mean, that kind of feels like a given because a lot of them are injury prone or coming back from injury. But even with a Blake Snell, maybe you project a few less starts just because, you know, they're going to be spaced out and things like that. Two star pitchers, two start weeks are probably going to be hard to come by for any Dodgers starter.

So keep that in mind. Yeah, I mean, obviously we don't know exactly what the future holds and how, you know, often injuries are going to happen, how much they're going to line up, how lengthy they're going to be. And I would say, though, just looking at those names. So the four

that are going to be there for sure if they're healthy, for sure going to be in the Dodgers rotation if they're healthy. Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glass Now, and Shohei Otani. Snell feels like the most durable of them, right?

I know he had 104 innings this past year, but it was a groinster. that cost him that time. It wasn't, it wasn't arm stuff, you know. Which is saying a lot. If Blake Snell is your most

horrible pitcher, it's kind of saying a lot. Well, but I'm just saying, obviously, 2023, 180 innings. No real health issues there.

But he's only surpassed 130 once in the past five full seasons. So it has been a bit of an irregularity for him, providing volume. But the two times in his career, he's gone 180 innings.

Sayyung. Say young. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Taking a look at the early 80Ps, Scott. It's 55.2 over at the NFBC. There have been 66 early drafts done so far.

So that makes him the SP 13 just after Dylan Sees, Cole Regens and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. So my guess is, Snow will move up ahead of Yamamoto, at least, I would imagine. He'll get a little bit of a bump. players just get bumps in general when they sign with a new team let alone the World Series champs

can you see yourself moving Blake Snell up at all you mention you have him as your eighth ranked starter you would have to move him ahead of like Reagan's or Logan Gilbert is that something you could see yourself doing no I can't see myself doing that because I already had Blake Snell as high as I felt like he could possibly go

there's when potential does improve a little bit with it well maybe I shouldn't even say a little bit he has he has about as much win potential as you could hope for signing with the Dodgers are going to win a ton of games. But it does, because they have that big staple of pitchers, if they wanted to give him a little extra rest when maybe someone else Snell signed with wouldn't have that luxury. I'm not sure it, like, I feel like the advantages of him pitching for the Dodgers kind of get negated by that.

that concern over over his innings being limited by artificial means, you know? So no, I don't see myself moving Blake Snell up higher than I have him at eighth, but yeah, eighth is where I think he should be and I'd take him over Yamamoto. Yamamoto was the one who stood out there

as being surprisingly high to me because if you're devaluing Blake Snell over durability, I don't know why you wouldn't do the same to Yamamoto, who wasn't even available for half of his first season. No, I agree with that. I haven't ranked pitchers yet, but I think I will have Blake's Nell ahead of Yamamoto. It's, you know, Yamamoto was great, but you laid out the numbers for Blake'snell over the last three years. I know it's frustrating, but when it's all said and done, you know, we still have got Ace production in that time,

and he's done it over a bigger sample than someone like Yamamoto. So I think I'm going to have him ranked ahead of Yamamoto as well. Before we wrap up here, Scott, to all the Dodgers fans out there, maybe this is the part of the podcast you want to stop listening. I just have to bring it up because I'm sure there will be a lot of chatter on the internet and the talking heads will go crazy. Have the Dodgers broke baseball, Scott? I mean, we kind of knew this.

We knew this was a possibility when Otani, signed the deal the way he did with so much of that $700 million being deferred so that they could bring an even more talent for his prime years. And I didn't necessarily expect them to sign Blake's now, but I wasn't at all surprised to hear that they did. And I wanted, like, it shouldn't be a surprise anytime the Dodgers sign a marquee free agent at this point. So if they broke in baseball, Baseball is really hard to predict. Like, we've seen, obviously, the Yankees went through a stretch. It was a couple decades ago at this point,

where it seemed like they landed every marquee free agent. And they weren't invincible. They had a really good run. They won four World Series in five years. But they were beatable. And a lot of times they were favored going in and then they didn't pull it out. So that's certainly the baseball postseason is unpredictable.

So if the Dodgers broke in baseball, no. I do wonder if, yeah, I mean, there will certainly be chatter about all the deferrals and everything. How if there should be some kind of limits placed on that, I would imagine. But any team could have done it, you know, and I imagine we'll see more teams do it. Yeah, it's tough to say. I mean, I think a lot of people living in the moment right now are going to see the Dodgers won the World Series and, you know, they're making the first big signing of the offseason.

So there will be lots of heavy reactions to that, I'm sure. But you're right. I mean, it's not always the best team on paper that goes on to win. I mean, we just, we had a stretch of years where, you know, it wasn't just the top payroll team was winning every year. I mean, if we're being honest, over the past couple decades, it really hasn't been that way. So maybe they'll go on and just,

create a dynasty now that they have all these amazing players signed, but we'll see. It doesn't always work out where the best team on paper goes on to win. So, you know, they'll have a target on their back for sure. That we know. All right, we are going to wrap there for anyone listening. We do have a podcast coming out tomorrow as well. Chris and I broke down his early top 50 starting pitchers. So if you listen to that and we don't mention Blake Snell signing with the Dodgers,

that's because we recorded it yesterday, two days ago, I guess, when you're going to listen to it. So that's why it might sound a little bit weird, but no worries that that's coming out tomorrow as another podcast. We are going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to this emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And Chris and I will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.