Fantasy Baseball Today - Boom or Bust Players! Sonny Gray to the Injured List? (3/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 15, 2021

Before we start, Chris Towers struck out looking in softball!? ... What is a Boom or Bust player (3:57)? How should you approach them in drafts? ... Is Trevor Bauer more likely to Boom or Bust this season (7:33)? ... What is Adalbero Mondesi's upside (14:40)? ... Which UTIL-only bat has the best boom potential (19:26)? Which is most likely to bust? ... Has this weekend changed how we feel about Stephen Strasburg and Zach Plesac (26:05)? ... Whom do we prefer between Luis Robert and Randy Arozarena (31:33)? ... Let's hit all the news and notes from the weekend (42:15). Is Sonny Gray headed to the IL? What about Austin Nola? We have some interesting velocity readings as well. ... We wrap up with some more rapid-fire Boom or Bust candidates (53:38). ... Email us at [e-mail]. Join our FBT Bracket Challenge for a chance to enter the 'For the People' league: http://cbssports.com/FBTbrackets Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Boomer Bugs players and Lato Spring Training updates. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. Happy Monday to the listening audience. joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Chris, I know that you're a softball player. Are you a patient hitter at the plate? I have struck out looking in a softball game before. No, no, no, no, Chris.

Yeah. You see, you're not supposed to admit that. Yeah, no. Well, what happened was I got to the game late and I didn't have time to warm up. And so I was, I went up to bat and I was like, oh, man, my wrist is, like I took one swing and my wrist was just way off.

So I just couldn't. I tried to draw. walk. And, you know, it's a borderline call. I think the, I think the, I think the aunt made the wrong call. Well, I mean, you shouldn't, I don't think you should be trying to, to walk with borderline pitches and softball. I'm just saying, I think if it was a borderline call and slow pitch softball and you have two strikes, the tie goes to the pitcher. In my defense, it's not like I took a borderline pitch. I wasn't going to swing because my wrist was messed up. I needed to, I had to warm up.

I was better later on in the game, but I went in cold and it just didn't. I'm too old to go into the game cold. I got to, you know, I got to get those resistance bans and, you know, really just work out before the game so I can make sure I'm ready. Well, your doppelganger, Luis Guillermo on the Mets had a 22-pitch walk on Sunday against Jordan Hicks. It was the only batter that Jordan Hicks got to face. It was his spring debut, 22 pitches later. He faces one batter. He walks him.

He's out of the game. Oh, wow. He really does look like me. No, he really, really does. I had that game on today, and I was just like, this is weird. Chris, you invited me to play on your softball team on Twitter. Yeah, I'm going to send you the, I'm going to send you the link to sign up. We start on May 2nd.

Okay. So I'm down. You got to be there. I'm much worse in softball than I am at Wiffa Ball. So as long as you're okay. Like, can you catch a ball? Yes, yes. Okay, because the team I played with last time, it was like 50-50 on people who could catch the ball.

I don't want to, you know, no, no shot. but we did go winless. All right. Well, hopefully I can help change it. I can catch a ball. We might have to recruit Scott and move him up here in New York. Scott, what's going on, man?

We have lots of velocity readings from the weekend. Your boy, John means business. Is he back? Apparently he was throwing 94 on Friday. We're back in business, baby. Yeah. Yeah, the results were good too, which hadn't been the case in his first two starts.

That helps. Yeah, no, I mean, you know, I got a little worried when the velocity was down because the whole argument hinges on that, that his velocity was up last year. So, you know, if we could take those velocities

and the velocity in his third start at face value, I see no reason to change what I initially wanted to believe. So, yeah, I'm still on board with John Means as a late round sleeper. Are you trying to add this to the stream, Chris, for those that are watching? Yeah, Luis Guillermo really does.

He's bald now. He's got a big beard. He really does look a lot like me. I tweeted that out last year and you never responded. So I just assumed that you didn't like it. I was busy. I didn't roll with it anymore. I was like, Chris probably hates me. I'm not always on Twitter, Frank. I'm pretty sure you are. 90% of the time. You are on Twitter. So a large portion of today's podcast is going to be boom or bus players. So let's start, let's think what you hear, Chris. what do you think of when you hear the term boom or bust? I guess it's relevant for either fantasy football or fantasy baseball, but we're doing a baseball podcast.

So let's start there. I think there are a couple. I think it's generally speaking a player with a risky profile. So in terms of hitters, someone who strikes out a lot, that creates a lot of variance in their profile. And so you know, you can have a year where the Babbib is 320 and they, you know, hit 270 or about a year when they're bad. it's $2.80 and they hit like $2.30.

So I think Joey Gallo's been a little boomer busty. Byron Buxton is probably the best current example, but also every single starting pitcher. Except for like the four good ones. Scott, would you agree with that assessment of boomer bus players? Yeah, for the most part. I mean, it covers more than just a risky profile. It covers like a Randierro's arena who we don't really,

know how legit that was because it was so sudden and so spectacular and, you know, he wasn't even thought to be in the Cardinals organization necessarily an everyday player. So, you know, somebody just who doesn't have enough of a track record yet, it could be an injury thing like a Jordan Alvarez strikes me as a boomer bus player this, uh, heading into this year. I think, you know, Chris was picking on starting pitchers, but I think really high end closers, especially. All pitchers. All pitchers. All pitchers. That's fair.

But, you know, I think of like Craig Kimbril exactly might be the face of boom or bust. Basically, it's somebody who you either see it going really, really well this year for him or really, really poorly. So, you know, at the high end, that could be somebody like Louise Robert, who we all acknowledge has a ton of upside. But I don't think any of us want him at his cost because we're factoring in the downside, too, which is also pretty extreme. Yeah, so I was going to just say, I mean, for whatever reason, it can be skills, it can be injury risk, it can be, you know, just performance risk, a player that we're going to talk about very shortly. Trevor Bauer, I think is probably the face of Boomer Bus starting pitchers. Yeah, I think it's just really high upside players and really low floors. So Scott, I'll stick with you here. How do you approach drafting Boomer Bus type players? It's probably not smart to draft an entire roster because I, you know, I can, you know, guess you have a good chance to finish in first if everything hits, but at the same time, it's like you have to mix in some high floor plays,

maybe some safer players as well, because if they all bust, then you're kind of, you're left out there. I think as a, the general rule would be, I don't like drafting boomer bus players early. I like drafting boomer bus players late

because, you know, you're not relying so much on any late round pick paying off. So the ones you target, you could at least hope for really high-end outcome, right? But the early rounders, you kind of need them to hit or else you're going to have problems. You can miss on an early-round pick or two and still win, but it makes it harder. It makes it a lot harder. So that's my general rule. And I'm sure some of the players we talk about will be high-end types that I'm just,

I'm not really avoided. Robert I am. But, you know, it's also the degree to which you think the boom is likely. versus the degree to which you think the bust is likely. Yeah, the boom's good. The bust is bad. Yeah. Well, let's start with one of those early round players who I just wrote up,

Trevor Bauer, who I think is the face of boomer bust starting pitchers, and he currently has an ADP of 13.8, so he's teetering on becoming a first-round pick, maybe even a first-round pick if you play in a points league. And the reason I say this is because if you just look at the ERA for Trevor Bauer the last four seasons, it's been all over the place.

1.73 last year when he won the Syung, 4.48 in 2019, 2.21 back in 2018, and then 4.19, way back in 2017. So, Chris, why don't you make the case for? What does the boom season look like for Trevor Bauer? Because I don't think, even his best case, we're not expecting a sub 2 ERA. No, no, you never expect a sub 2 area. And you look at the various ERA estimators last season. They didn't support it. He outperformed that by about a run, uh, in most instances. So I think the boom season for Trevor Bauer is probably like a 26 ERA, 195 200 to 205 innings, uh, you know, 250 strikeouts. I think that's probably the boom season for Trevor Bauer. He could be, uh, you know, one of the few pitchers who could get up to 210 innings, but I think that's probably, uh, a really,

really optimistic projection. So I think you're looking at a mid to high, two's ERA and a ton of strikeouts as the boom for Trevor Bauer. Scott, what's on the other side there? What is the reason for a bus season if one were to happen for Bauer?

I mean, it might just be as easy as, you know, him pitching with only one eye open because apparently that's something he's doing in spring and he's hitting batters and stuff. I really try not to let my feelings for players that are not, you know, statistically based affect my judgment of them

for fantasy because you know you shouldn't you don't draft what you're hard or anything but Trevor Bauer just makes it so hard. I mean in his case though like if he was actually stupid enough to try to do that in games that matter he would probably pitch really poorly

which is what we saw in his spring outing where he couldn't get out of the first inning he walked three batters and hit someone like don't throw with one eye close you're a major league pitch Scott, what's the downside look like for Trevor Bauer? Well, it probably looks like 2019 when he had a 448 ERA. But you look at the rest of his numbers that year and they really, he had double-digit wins.

I think that's likely again with the Dodgers because, you know, he's going to throw a lot of innings. He had 253 strikeouts. He had a whip of 1-25, which, you know, isn't great, but it's not that bad either. A lot of home runs that year. Most after he joined the Reds, I mean, his numbers with Cleveland before that trade, 379 ERA. You know, it wasn't quite

ace level with the strikeouts in the innings, but it was certainly must start level. So that's part of the reason why I'm not, I understand why

you're calling him a boomer bus pick. I think a lot of people would say that too, and I had him on the long list of names I sent to you. But it's why,

I think of the three of us, I'm the highest of him. I have my number four starting pitch, right? I actually, I think he's going to be really useful either way. And I think

I think that 2019 season is more like the disaster outcome. You know, maybe a mid-3 ZRA is a possibility, you know, if he doesn't quite get the extraordinary spin rate on his pitches. But, you know, the thing I think a lot of people overlook with Trevor Bauer is they're like, oh, he wasn't that good before last year. Okay, then how do you explain 2018 when he was probably the frontrunner for the AL-Sai Young before breaking his leg in August. So two of the last three years,

he's been the best pitcher in his league. I think that's more where I find myself with Trevor, Trevor Bauer. Yeah, I think the risk with him is control and home runs. You know, if he keeps the walks, the career rate is 9%. If he can be south of that, he'll probably be pretty good.

But there is more home run risk in his profile than, you know, just that one bad half season with the Reds. You know, he is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. But I agree. Like, I think the worst case scenario is probably an ERA around four with a ton of

endings. I mean, really the worst case scenario is he gets hurt because he's a pitcher, but, you know, the worst case, healthy scenario. The worst case is he doesn't.

Yeah, the worst case scenario. What's the thing with the eye? Like, he's complaining that he's not seeing very well at a one eyes. No, he's just, I thought he was just doing it for fun.

Is he actually like trying to give a reason? Yeah, yeah, he's... Yeah. Okay, Tre. No, he actually had a reason. I mean, he kind of joked about how I can get this guy out with one eye closed, but he actually gave a real reason, too. But, like, it's probably just that he's being a... Yeah.

Thing. Keep it, keep it PG. Keep it PG for the, for the kiddies out there listening. A jerk. Yes. I will say of the two scenarios that you guys painted, I do think a boom season as much. as it pains me to say, is more likely for Trevor Bauer. I don't see why he would go away from

however he has developed this spin rate. So if that remains, then I think that he's probably still going to be really, really good this upcoming season. I'm the lowest of the three, but I still have him SP6. So I still, I'm willing to take him as early as the second round if he falls to me there. Before we get to another boom or bust player, I do just want to remind everyone, March Madness, it is here and you can create a pool to compete. against friends or fill out your own bracket for a chance to win a Nissan Rogue and a trip to the 2022 Final Four. You can play on the CBS Sports app or at CBSports.com slash brackets. But wait, there's more. We have a March Madness bracket for this podcast, fantasy baseball today,

and we are giving away a spot in the For the People Listener League. That's a 16 team head-to-head categories league. Yes, we are still taking your submissions, and they have been awesome. We appreciate that. Continue to send in your cropped Photoshop pictures, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com to try and earn a spot into these leagues, but we are also giving away one spot in the For the People League to whoever performs best in this competition. We're going to have a bracket and you can find it at cbsports.com slash fbt brackets. I tweeted out the link as well, dropped it in our Facebook group. So just join there. Put together your best bracket. And by the time,

I don't think that... I think that we're going to announce the winners of the podcast leagues before March Madness, the actual bracket is up. So whoever is leading at that point, we'll earn a spot. So again, the link to join there is cbsports.com slash FBT brackets. Let's go back to some of these boomer bus hitters.

And a name we haven't mentioned yet that might be the face of hitters. I tweeted out earlier asking people for some boomer bus hitters, just players in general. And a lot of people said, Alberto Mondisey. I can see why. I mean, he has an ADP of 29.8.

And if you just look at his season last year, it was basically a microcosm of this whole conversation. His first 37 games, he sucked. His final 22 games were awesome. He was a league winner, 376 batting average, six homers, 16 steals over those final 22 games. He almost averaged a steal per game over those final three weeks of the season,

which is just absolutely crazy. Maybe he got off to a slow start because he was dealing with a shoulder injury. the boom case. Let's go with you, Scott. What is the boom case for one, Adelberto Mondesian? Are you buying it? Well, I don't think we've seen it yet. We've seen stretches where he's been a really good hitter.

Obviously, in September of last year, I believe it was 2018. I was pretty excited about him going into last year because the second half of 2018. He had a really strong hitting performance. You know, the play discipline, I don't think there's any hope of that improving, so that's going to put some limits on.

him as a hitter, but could he be a guy who hits 275 with 25 homers and like 70 steals doubling up everybody in that category? I think that's in the realm of possibility. I think now that the shoulder surgery is behind him, clearly put it behind him last September. We should have a better idea of what Mondesie is going to be after this season. I'm obviously not drafting him like that. I have a lot of skepticism about him as a hitter. the plate discipline was horrible.

I think he needed like a near 500 bat, like a 464. 464 bad bit last September to put up the numbers he did then. But the good news is, no matter how poorly he hits, probably going to lead the majors and steals. He might, if he misses half the season with injury, he might lead the major leagues and steals. It's just such a distant number one in that category.

This is the start of 2019 for Montesson. He's played 161 games, so just about a full season. He has 67 steals, which leads baseball during that time. Jonathan V.R. is second with 56 steals in 53 more games. That is how dominant at Alberto Monisee is in that category. Chris, I think Scott hit on some of the reasons why Monisee has a bus case, but what are you thinking here? And what do you think is more likely if you're drafting him?

I mean, this ADP 29.8, this is for a Roto or a Categories League. you got him last week in our head to head points mock in round 14. So that's a points league. He's going to go much later. The bus case, Chris, for Mondesie. Yeah, I mean, the bus case is he's so bad that he's not an everyday player. Like, the bus case is what we've seen from Jonathan V.R. over the last few seasons.

I think he's almost certainly going to remain an everyday player this season. He's a very good defender. He's a very good base runner. but like it's not out of the realm of possibility that he has a 550 OPS on July 1st. That's a realistic outcome for him. His plate discipline is like third percentile in baseball probably. So the bust case is not that he hits poorly,

but that he hits so poorly that he's not even playing. Because I think as long as he's in the lineup, it's going to be like Billy Hamilton. As long as he's in the lineup, he's going to steal enough bases that you're, probably going to still need to start him if you drafted him for stolen bases. Because if you drafted him for stolen bases, it probably means, like I usually do. I have him in four roto leagues.

I draft him and that means I don't really have to pursue stolen bases after that. And so if he's not hitting well, but he's still stealing bases, you're going to keep starting him. The risk is that he either because of injuring or performance, he gets benched or doesn't play. Yeah, and we saw during that stretch last year, those first 37 games where he was struggling mightily. He was getting dropped all the way down to the bottom of the lineup. He was batting ninth for the Royals. And they have enough options where I've been trying to play it out in my head.

I don't know what this line is going to look like. He was batting third on Sunday. I don't know that that's the most realistic place for him to bat, but I think Benintennie's probably a better bet to bat second for this team. So we'll see what happens. If he struggles, he's going to drop in the lineup. That's the first part of it. And then he can even lose playing time. So again, that is Adelberto Monasee could lead the league in steals.

Could be out of a job by July. Let's lump together. We'll lead the majors in steals. Assuming health, he will. Unless he gets hurt. Yeah, sorry, go ahead. Let's lump together these three utility bats in Yuron Alvarez, J.D. Martinez, and John Carlos Stanton.

I'm not going to put Nelson Cruz in the mix. I mean, I guess age is a risk, of course. But as long as he's on the field, he's going to be good. What is the, what is the boom scenario? Which boom scenario looks the best? Scott, between these three. Alvarez, J.D. Martinez, Stanton. You know, I've struggled with that. I've struggled with that this whole time. I keep going. I mean, I do have Stanton below the other three if we are putting crews in there, just because it's been a while.

It's been a couple years since he's been somebody we can count on in fantasy. But I think the boom for him is, you know, second round type hitter. I think that's, That's fair to say if he stays healthy and he could be the best home runner in baseball still. I think probably Alvarez, I think if we're doing best case scenario for any of these three, including J.D. Martinez, I'll give it to Alvarez, who looked like Mike Trout without the speed when he got called up as a rookie. I mean, just unbelievable hitting. I think he went, I think he had 50 doubles and 50 homers between the majors and minors that year. which is just unbelievable production. So I'll say Alvarez.

And by the way, we got a positive, I saw a positive quote from him, made his spring debut today finally. And he said, paraphrasing here, but he said, it sounds like people are more worried about me than I, like, think I'm feeling worse than I actually am.

There's something like that. So he's feeling good. feeling good. And that's a good sign coming off double-kneged surgery. Yep, it was good to see. Yurdan Alvarez made his debut on Sunday. He went 0 for 3, two flyouts and a ground out. After the game, he was asked if there were plans to play in the outfield at all during spring training. And he had this to say, yeah, that's the plan. Definitely. Today was just the first game for me. I think I told you guys before that I feel a lot better than people must think I feel healthy. So there you go. Yuron Alvarez.

In that season, now you mentioned, 2019, a 143 games between the minors and the majors, a 325 batting average with 50 home runs. So that is awesome. Chris, between the three, Alvarez, J.D. Martinez, and Stanton, which bust scenario is likely? And for each, it's a little bit different because I think we have some injury concerns

with a few of these guys, but then I think J.D. Martinez is probably a performance concern. Yeah, and I would... I would say Martinez is probably the most likely. Just because he is 33 and it's performance related now, but it's also possible that that turns into injury risk at his point in his career. Whereas with Alvarez and Stanton, as long as they're healthy, I think they're going to be very good hitters.

And they're both healthy right now. So, you know, obviously we can't predict injuries. you know, past injuries are the best predictor of future injuries, but they aren't a perfect injury predictor. So I have very little doubt that Alvarez and Stanton are going to be very good hitters when they're on the field. Martinez is a bigger question mark for me. Yeah, Martinez is 33 years old. He will turn 34 come August.

And there was a stretch in his career where he dealt with some injuries as well. 2014, 2016, 2017. He played 123 games or less in each of those. but the past couple of seasons for J.D. Martinez, he has been much healthier. So we will give him credit there where it is due. For Stanton, you want to talk about injuries, he has played 18% of his games over the last two years. But over his last 162 games, 273 batting average, 36 home runs, 101 RBI.

If he stays healthy, I think he could probably come close to those numbers, especially in Yankee Stadium in that ballpark. Given that he's only played 18% of the time over the last, last two seasons. I think he's either first or second in number of batted balls over 115 and 110 miles per hour in Major League Baseball. And that's just raw count. Just total number. In terms of percent, he's over in terms of percent he's double anyone else. I think I think he's behind only Vlad Guerrero in both 115 and 110 mile per hour batted balls over the last two seasons. Scott, which of these players

and we'll lump Cruz in here now as well at their current ADP which of these guys are you most likely to draft Alvarez at pick 81 Cruz at 89 Martinez at 91 Stanton at 112 Probably Stanton just because it's so much later

but I like the I love the value for all of them I I would hesitate to be the one who grabs the first of them because I don't know when they're going to start going off the board. It seems like in

leagues with like experts like tout wars, they don't go as late as the ADP shows. Everybody just knows better. So I'm actually ending up with less of these guys than I thought I was going to. But pretty much, as soon as I saw somebody take one,

whether it was Cruz or Alvarez or J.D. Martinez, I'd be gearing up to take one of the others. Yep. And that's exactly what I called out last week when we did our hit-to-head points mock draft. We saw Alvarez go, I think it was at the 6-7 turn. And then as soon as that happened, I said,

well, get ready to watch these other guys fall because, I know, so was J.D. Martinez, who went at the 6-7 turn. Next pick was Cruz. Four picks later, it was Yuron Alvarez in the, right around that 6-7 turn. Chris, just give me a name, the one you're most likely to draft at their cost. Stanton has been drafted in a third of my leagues, so. Boom.

Stick to your goal. Guns. Let's pair up. Mondesie, I have in 5 of 12. So apparently I'm all in on the boomer bus players. I also have Byron Buxton. Oh, I know. So you're either going to be, you know,

still alive in all of your leagues by July 1st or you're, you know, you're going to do really good on your fantasy football prep. So that's it. I don't think it's going to go. It's just going to go one way or the other there for you. Win, win, win, win either way, I think. There you go. Let's pair up two pitchers here.

Steven Schrosberg and Zach Plessack. both were in the news this weekend, and they're going 11 picks apart right now in ADP. Strasbourg at pick 64. Zach Plesec at pick 75. Steven Schrosberg left Sunday start with a calf issue. Nationals manager, Dave Martinez, said that Strasbourg will be evaluated again on Monday morning

before they determine the next steps. Martinez is also hoping they can keep Shrosberg in a five-day routine. Of course, Strasbourg was coming back from carpal tunnel surgery that he had last year. So now we have this cap to worry about as well. And then Zach Plessack, just for different reasons. He got roughed up on Saturday. I don't know that this actually matters,

but in the spring now, Plesack has pitched seven in a third inning. He has allowed 12 hits and seven earned runs. So, Chris, because I know you like Zach Plesack so much, how about you make the best case scenario for each of these guys, Strasbourg and Pleseck? I don't dislike Zach Plac. I think it's unfair.

view to imply that. The best case scenario for Zach, please, Zach, it's not nearly as good as he was last season when he had a 228 ERA, but,

you know, I could see low three ZRA, um, you know, maybe a Jose Barrios type outcome, but with better control. And so I, you know,

I think he could be someone who does pitch pretty deep into games is pretty consistent and, um, you know, picks up a lot of volume. with pretty good ratios. I think Strasbourg's best case scenario is a lot better. We've seen him be one of the best pitchers of baseball over a full season.

We'll see what this calf injury is. He's never been on the IL in his career for a lower body injury. So that's fun. We'll see what happens with this one. But yeah, I mean, the best case scenario for Steven Strasberg is he stays healthy. he throws 190 innings and he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball. We saw it in 2019. He can be, you know, he's not elite like Tyler Glassnow strikeout numbers,

but he can be one of those guys who's like an A grade across the board. So, you know, there's a lot to get excited about if he's okay. He just currently isn't. Scott, what is the downside for each of these gentlemen? Steven Strasbourg and Zach Pleseck and how worried are you about each of their situations that we saw from the weekend? The calf injury for

Strasbourg. I mean, I guess glass half full is that it's not a hand or an arm type thing, but obviously it's another injury, so that just sucks. And are you worried about these struggles for Zach Plessack so far? No, I'm not worried about the struggles for Plesack.

I don't really, I don't generally worry about struggles for pitchers unless there's something going on with their actual stuff, like velocity issues or delivery issues or something like that. And I haven't heard anything along those lines. So I think just the downside for PLEASC is,

you know, maybe he's not as effective facing lineups multiple times. Some of the AL Central folks, foes, are more familiar with his pitch mix that he showed last year. should still be a good control pitcher, but maybe the ERA ends up around four, and maybe the strikeouts drop below one per inning,

and he becomes kind of a fringy mixed leaguer, if that happens, I think. The downside for Strasbourg is trouble getting on the mound, and I'm not... I mean, obviously he was still building up, and we saw a lot of pitchers have an uptick and velocity this weekend, And so, you know, early spring velocity, maybe we were stressing a little too much about that for some of them.

But, you know, Straussberg's velocity wasn't quite back to where we're used to seeing it in the first two starts. So we still had some reason to wonder how he'd bounce back from this relatively untested procedure, the carpal tunnel syndrome. To, you know, we haven't seen that a lot from pitchers. So I don't know. The downside for Straussberg is he doesn't end up pitching much because of this calf at first and then maybe something else goes wrong because so much has gone wrong for him. Or even if he does pitch, maybe he's not quite the same. And yeah.

And then you don't end up using him that much. That's the downside. How do you like that? I don't. I don't like that. I took him as my SP2 in our mock draft last week. Where would you feel comfortable? What would you feel comfortable getting Strasbourg as?

Scott, in terms of your rotation, your SP2, your SP3. Well, with a calf injury. Right. You wouldn't be comfortable with him. Right. I was saying three or four before. Yeah. Now I probably need him as like a number six. That could be something that sidelines him for the first six weeks of the season, you know?

Yep. We'll keep you updated on the situation with Steven Schrosberg. Or it could be very minor and, you know, he misses two weeks. Let's get possible to. Let's hit two outfielders here with a power speed combination. Mentioned the name a few times already. Luis Robert, who has an ADP at 40.6, according to fantasy pros. That is mostly in roto drafts and head-ed-categories,

because in our head-to-d points league, I got him last week at pick 88 in the eighth round of that draft. So much like Monasey is going to fall a little bit, not to the same point as Monise. Again, that is Louis-Robert. And the other name is Randy Rosa Rana, who has an ADP of SAC. 61.4 also went in the eighth round of that points league draft. A few picks after one Luis Robert.

So, Chris, which one would you rather have? Robert or Rosarena? You could paint the picture for both. Robert, for sure. I have him probably 30 spots in the rankings ahead of a Roserina. And I'm not necessarily low on a Roseraine. I just think, you know, Robert, I think Robert's a better prospect first, just a more talented play. He's younger, and so there's more room for him to develop. I think their approaches should be fairly similar. Robert, the best case scenario is he's a 30-30 guy. He wasn't that far off that pace last season. He was like a 30-homer 24 steel guy on a per game, on a per 162 pace.

And that's the legitimate upside, especially if Tony Larissa does have a more aggressive approach as the manager of the White Sox on the base pass. you know, he's going to hit the ball really hard. It's, you know, if he can be a 28% strikeout rate guy instead of a 32% strikeout rate guy, there's probably upside for him to hit 275, 280, just because he could be a really high Babbat hitter. I think the downside is, one, he had a lot of trouble staying healthy in the miners. You know, he was not someone who racked up big, you know, games played totals, even in

2019, I think that was the high for him. And it was like 122 or 132, 122 games, I think. So there's injury risks there. But there's also just he could hit 200 with a 270 on base percentage. And, you know, I think he's probably still going to be an everyday player because, you know, their outfield defense isn't great without him. But, you know, it's possible he's a 20 homer 12 steel guy with, you know, really bad batting average.

So that's, that's the downside for a Rosalry. I think a lot of the same things are true, except he plays on a team that's much, much more likely to bench him if he's not going well. And even if he's going okay, it's not entirely guaranteed that he plays every day. So, you know, I think the downside for Rosarina is, one, a lot more realistic and two, a lot lower for fantasy.

So I think the upside for both is fairly similar. Luis Robert, last year was basically the opposite of Monashy where he got off to this great start, his first 33 games. A 298 batting average, 10 home runs. He did strike out around 31% of the time, but his final 23 games from

September 1st on for Luis Robert, 136 batting average, 34% strikeout rate. I mean, that's the downside for him. He has no plate discipline. He does. It's not like he doesn't have bad plate discipline. He has no plate discipline. He walked 8.8% of the time,

but that's a tiny sample size. He's swung at 43% of pitches outside of the strike zone. 57% overall. Those are two of the highest marks in the league. And he only made contact on 61% of his swings. So he needs to develop a lot in that regard. He had a 22% swinging strike rate. So, Scott, the same question to you.

I know that you're worried about Luis Robert. You have him either as a bus or as an overvalued player. How about Randy and Rosarana? I mean, he's going on average about 20 picks later, but he seems really risky as well. I mean, is that the point of the draft where you're willing to take on that kind of high upside risk?

Well, yes. I think I would be willing to if I thought that that it best suited my needs at that point. And that is yet to happen. I'm usually focused on other things at the point when Randy Arrowserain is going. The good news with him is

he's going to be a contributor in stolen bases. And I mostly believe what we saw from him last year. I mean, obviously, if he maintained the pace from the regular season and postseason, he'd be like the best player in baseball. So he can't be all that. But in terms of buying him as a legitimate power hitter, yeah, I think I'm there. I think he can sustain that.

And I think he's going to be a contributor in steals, like I said. So if you last around six, then I think that's a reasonable point to take him. But I do think it's possible. You know, Cinderella had her night at the ball and he turns it back into a pumpkin. And because we just don't, we just didn't really see this coming. It went on long enough that I'm mostly buying it, but we didn't see it coming. He is, you know, he does have a much better track record in terms of play discipline than Luis Robert.

He's also, you know, much older. He's 26 years old. So, you know, that does matter when you're talking about evaluating prospects. And, you know, his bad at ball data was good. But in a, you know, small sample size, it wasn't Joey Gallo-esque in terms of how hard he hit the ball, how consistently hard. So, you know, I think the downside risk for him is sort of similar to Luis Robert, but in different ways. I think he's less likely to strike out 30% of the time. I just, I compare, like, compare a Rosarana to, like, Grisham,

Trink Grisham and leave the, leave the walks out of it because we're, we're, let's do it from strictly a five-by-five. But even that, a Rosarina might walk a decent amount. You know, his my only track record is like 10%. Grisham's going to be a great walker. So I'm just leaving that part out. Like, what are we, what do we peg Grisham for? Maybe a 250, 260 batting average, uh, between 15 and 20 homers,

between 20 and 25 steals. Yeah. I mean, like, I don't expect a Rosarena to be, I don't really see a scenario where he's much worse than that. I would take the- Unless the race just, you know, mess with his playing time. I would take a Rosarena in home runs and average, for sure. Yeah. You know, given the same amount of playing time, I think he'll be better and possibly significantly better in both.

Yeah. It might be more like 15 steals for Rosarena versus the 20. and five potentially for Grisham. But yeah, in terms of batting average in home runs, like, I would give a Reserana the edge there too. And I'm not even the downer on Grisham like you are. If you look at the fan graphs projections for Randy Orozarena, they all have in between 21 and 27 home runs and 16 and 21 steals.

So again, a legitimate power speed combination for Roserena, but just playing with such a small sample size last. year, 43 games between the regular and postseason for a Rosarena, 333 batting average, 17 home runs, and 1158 OPS. And he was doing it against the best pitchers in baseball in the postseason. He's hitting home runs off Garrett Cole and stuff. So yeah, I think he fits right in with this bowl. I mean, you know, he saw the other Yankees, though. Yeah, and not great. Outside of Garrett Cole. We're going to hit a quick break. But before we do that, I just want to remind everybody about our fantasy baseball today draft prep guide, which is now live and it is free on the site.

You can download our draft kit. It's a one-stop shop for anyone to dominate their draft. It includes our sleepers, breakouts, bus, rankings, strategies, tears, everything you need. There's a sheet where you can keep track of your drafting, keep track of your salary cap draft, how much money you have left within it as well. And again, you can find that at the link. CBSports.com slash FBBDraft kit and just some programming updates. We will have a mailbag podcast again this Saturday. So continue to drop some Apple podcast rating and reviews in there. Drop, put your question in a review.

We do appreciate those. Email, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. And we will be doing a live roto salary cap draft on the podcast Tuesday night, which will be on video. and that will be turned into Wednesday mornings podcast as well. Scott, what time are we going live with that on Tuesday night? 7. We'd probably start a little before 7.15,

but the draft itself is scheduled to start at 7.15. Yeah, so we'll probably fire up the live stream for those who want to watch on YouTube around 7, 715. And we'll run a little bit longer, an hour and a half, whatever it might be. So you can see how

much people paid for certain players. I think Adam is in that. That's going to be interesting to see. He was texting me today. Who's this year's James Paxson? Like, I don't know. Anyone that's going to get hurt? I don't know.

What do you even need by that? I don't know. Because he's trying to find his TAPAB AMC strategy. So he's like, I need a new Paxton. I don't know. We'll figure it out. If you're watching on the video side, don't go anywhere.

If you're listening on the podcast, we're going to take a quick break. But when we return, we have all the news and notes from this past weekend. Let's start off with Sunny Gray, who was scratched from Sunday's start due to a mid-back injury. and he is now expected to start the season on the injured list.

That's the last report that I saw. And Scott, remember last year he went on the IL in September? That was also a mid-back strain. So I am really worried about Sunny Gray. I think I dropped him all the way down to SP33 in the rankings today. I dropped them behind Lazzardo and Ian Anderson. I'm pretty scared.

Okay. Okay. Yeah, I was already pretty worried, but it wasn't even so much a health thing. So we've seen back issues played guys for years at a time. I mean, Clayton Kershaw himself, that was something that kept recurring for him.

So that's something to be worried about. I have him 29th currently. Yeah, I can see dropping him some. I can see dropping them outside the top 35, probably. So, yeah, I think those concerns are fair and valid. And like I said, I had performance concerns anyway. because he was kind of two-faced last year, as short as last year was.

That is not... I dropped him to SP 40. There you go. That is not Harvey Dent. We're talking about Two-Face. We are talking about Sunny Gray. One of my favorite sleepers, T.J. Anton, with the Reds,

tweaked his groin on Sunday. Womp, wamp, wamp. After the game, Anton said that he felt all right and expects to make his next start. So we'll pay attention there. Lots of strikeouts here in the spring. I just traded away Nando's boy,

Jose de Leon. to Nando actually. He might have a spot in the rotation. Wade Miley's dealing with an injury as well. Right, right, exactly. Well, and there was already a competition. Even assuming Miley and Gray were healthy, there was still a competition for the fifth spot.

That seemed like it was going to go to Michael Lorenzen, but it seemed like T.J. Anton was next to mine. So if Anton's healthy, presumably he has a spot to begin the year now, I would think. Let's hope so. Cross your fingers. For the man they call and they, I mean pitching ninja calls Captain Hook

at his T.J. Anton. Austin Nola has a fractured middle finger on his left hand. There is no timetable and opening day is up in the air. Chris, should we be dropping Austin Nola behind names like James McCann, Sean Murphy, and Mitch Garver now? Yeah, I kind of had him

just ahead of those guys. I'm looking at it now. I'll probably drop him. The thing about injuries is I'm, you know, I think pretty well known on this podcast for being less concerned about the quote unquote injury prone players than most. But when a player is actually injured, it's a lot harder to draft them. You know, we don't know how, and we assume Osse knowle is going to recover from this fine. But Ossehola is not exactly a guarantee in terms of performance anyway. You know, we're talking about a very small sample size where he's hit like a starting caliber catcher.

So yeah, I'll probably drop him to 14th now. He was ninth before. I'll drop him behind Mitch Garber. That's only 19 spots in my overall rankings because I have catchers really bundled together towards the bottom. But yeah, that's a pretty big drop for me. Again, that is Alcinola catcher for the San Diego Padres. He has a fractured middle finger on his left hand.

Carlos Carrasco, who is dealing with elbow inflammation through at 75 feet Sunday. and he will throw from 90 to 120 feet on Monday, followed by a short bullpen session. When asked if he'll be ready for opening day, Carrasco said, quote, oh yes, I will be ready. So some good news there on Carlos Crasco, hopefully, because we can use another pitcher

in those middle rounds. Everyone else is getting hurt. Strasbourg and Pliassack is sucking. Whatever, man. Carrasco, we need you, buddy. Mike Alfranco, not the most exciting player at this point, but he is on the verge of signing a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles,

I would like a refund on my deep league Rio Ruiz shares. But Michael Franco was actually, he was decent last year. 278 batting average, eight home runs, 38 RBI.

The stack cast data was very bad for Franco. Scott, any interest in him as a corner infielder in a deep roto league? Yeah, it'd have to be pretty deep.

I mean, he's probably going to verge on 20 homers with a not terrible batting average. we pretty much know he is at this point. It's pretty fringy. Again, that is Michael Franco.

Close to signing with the Baltimore Orioles. Frankie Montas made his debut on Sunday. Three shutout innings with two strikeouts. Apparently he was sitting 95 to 97 miles per hour with the fastball and also made my guy. Tim Anderson look pretty foolish on what I believe. I think it was a splitter, but I couldn't really tell. The broadcasters couldn't tell either.

But Montas looked good. That's the point. Chris, if you are drafting today, Would you take Montas or Corey Kluber? Oh, Montas. I've had him higher than Cluber all along, and I'm not sure. I don't know. Cluber's been okay in spring, and it sounds like the velocity is, you know,

in the 91 to 92 range over his last start. So that's a good sign. But I think Montas is, where do I have him? I have him 43rd overall. So I like Frankie Montas quite a bit. And it's interesting because Cluber is just, continues to fly up in ADP right now. And on Fantasy Pros, he's going to pick 152,

and Montas is down at 172. So I think they've kind of been going in the opposite directions. Obviously, I've faced that exact decision several times already, Klubor versus Montas. Okay. And I have gone Klubber every time.

Ooh. But part of me kind of wishes I'd hedged my bet there. Yeah. And just gone with one in one draft, gone with... Actually, every time I hope get Kluber and Monsas on the way back, and that's never happened.

Yeah, I mean, speaking of boomer bus players, they're probably both in that category, right? Both Cooper and... I think so. And Montas. Let's stick with the Oakland A's starting pitcher. Sean Mania made his debut on Saturday, and I don't know if you want to trust this,

but I'll just throw it out there. According to reports, he was sitting 93 to 94 miles per hour with the fastball. Sean Mania was. He averaged 90.4. Not 94. 90.4, below 91 miles per hour on his fastball last year, and he has never averaged more than 92.3 miles per hour for any season in his career.

Again, Sean Mania, the ADP is at 242. He's going right around all those other sleeper starting pitchers that we've talked about a ton. John Means, Nathan Avaldi, Eliezer Hernandez. Chris, I think we brought up Mania during our SP preview part three, and you just kind of shrugged him off. Does this interest you, this velocity? that that reports have him sitting 92 93 does not interest me particularly um and and this is the

problem with the you know spring training what does sitting mean does sitting mean he hit 93 a couple of times and was mostly 92 does like you know it's we don't actually have the data in front of us and so I'm not going to you know move a guy when I don't have actual data um it's something to watch for if is actually throwing consistently 93 miles an hour. It does make him a little more interesting. What if he's consistently throwing 92 versus? Right. Sure. In that range. Yeah. If he's averaging 92 miles per hour this fastball, you know, velocity is, you know, correlated with whiff rate. It's correlated with spin rate.

So the harder you throw, generally speaking, the better your results will be. So yeah, we'll see. But one outing where we didn't have stack cast data is not enough for me to move him up. How about you, Scott? Sean Mania. I mean, he's at such a low end of the pitching spectrum. It doesn't take much to move him up. That's kind of

that's kind of more where I am. I'm more likely to use my last pick on Sean Mania now than I was prior to this start. How about using your last pick in a draft on You Say Kakuchi? A name that we have not talked much about. I can't remember if it was either towards the end of the podcast last week

or after the podcast ended, but Chris, I know. that you were talking up Kikuchi a little bit, and I looked more into the numbers. Yeah, we should give him more respect. He was, Kukuchi's underlying numbers last year were good. And he made tangible improvements. Apparently, he was sitting 95, 96 miles per hour with his fastball on Sunday, recorded 10 outs. Six of them were via the strikeout. So, Chris, you say Kikuchi. I do say Kikuchi. He averaged 95 with his fastball last year. You know, he was a big velocity gainer and it made his overall profile play up, his swinging

strike rate jumped from 8.8% to 12.1% contact rate fell. He looked like a legitimately different and much better pitcher last season. Groundball rate was over 50%. Strikeout per inning. He had a 517 ERA. And so I think most people just look at it. This was me before looking at it a little closer. It was just saying, well, you know, 546 ERA last year.

He reworked some stuff and it didn't work. and then you actually look at the peripherals in 330 FIP, 378 X FIP. I think the XERA on baseball Savon is like 328. Sierra is 434, so not quite as good. But all in all, I think that points to a guy who was much better than he pitched in 2020. And I think the stuff is legitimately good. And yeah, I like let you say Kukuchi quite a bit as one of the late round pitchers. his ADP, I think, is after 350, right?

3.42. Okay, yeah. So he's 269 for me. He's inside the draft him in a 12-team Roto League range, and I will try to draft him in as many leagues as I can moving forward. Again, that is Yusay Kikuchi, the last three news items that I will hit on just because I do want to wrap up with a few more boomer-buss players. Scott wrote an article last week about post-hyped sleepers,

and Brendan Rogers was one of them. And he was looking pretty good in the spring, and then he pulled up lame on a stolen base on Saturday. He has been diagnosed with a hamstring strain. There's optimism. He'll be ready for opening day. Poor kid. Brenner Rogers, just can't stay healthy.

But we're rooting for you, buddy. Another prospect, Blue Jays, pitching prospect, Alec Manoa, three perfect endings on Sunday against the Yankees with seven strikeouts, nine whiffs on 44 pitches. He is 23 years old, a former first round pick in 2019. Again, named Alec Manoa. I don't know that he's going to be up this year,

but if you have this kid in Dynasty, he looked pretty awesome on Sunday. And for any AOL-only players, real deep dynasty leagues, just a name to watch. Put him on the scout team. Bruce Zimmerman for the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched four no-hit innings on Sunday, bringing his spring line to nine innings pitched, one hit, zero earned, three walks, ten strikeouts. Bruce Zimmerman, averaging 94 miles per hour on his fastball on Sunday. That is up from 91.4 miles per hour last season. We'll wrap with some more boom or bust players,

and I'll just throw one name your way. You tell me what's more likely to happen? Boom or bust? Scott, Josh Bell, boom or bust? I mean, based on where... I want to draft him as late as I do if I didn't think bust was more likely to happen. But I think boom is more likely to happen

than the ADP would suggest, if that makes sense. Like, I like the value, but there's a reason I'm not taking him around seven like I was last year. So boom is more like, I'm sorry, bust is more likely, but boom is pretty likely to.

Josh Bell, the ADP is 134.4. I should probably ask Scott about this guy too, because I know Chris likes Kesson Hira. Hmm. Yeah, I mean, look,

but like, I do think there's a very high chance he busts. I just think the chances that he hits are so high and he would be so valuable if he did that I'm willing to take on the risk. I'm not,

I certainly wouldn't argue that Kestin Hira is not likely to bust. I just think sometimes you got to take calculated risks. The ADP for Kesson Hira is 68.2, so he is typically going in the sixth round, more so in Roto and head-to-head categories. He does fall a little bit in points because of the lack of plate discipline there for Hira. But you've kind of seen it in his rookie season versus last year, what the upside could be versus what the downside is for Kesson-Hirah. Scott, Charlie Morton, we spoke about him a little bit last week.

What do you think at his advanced age? More likely to boom or bust? I think he's more likely to boom. And in fact, I moved him up to 35 in my starting pitcher rankings just earlier today. He is now in between Jesus Luzardo and Lance McCullors also moved him ahead of Sixthos Sanchez. So Charlie Morton, more likely to boom. I have moved Charlie Morton up as well. too. Wow, I didn't realize I moved them up this much. I moved them up to SP 30 so I'm more in line with

with Chris now. You guys are cowards. He's SB 28 for me, although I probably have them lower in the overall ranks than either of you. How about Patrick Corbyn? This is one that we've been following the velocity all spring and in his second start again, the fastball velocity was right around 90 and that was a big issue for Corbyn last year. So Chris, boom or bust, Patrick. Patrick Corbyn. I think he's more likely to bust at this point. I think he can be effective throwing 90 miles an hour or averaging 90 miles an hour. We've seen stretches of that like that in his breakout 2018 season for a while in that season.

He was throwing about 90 miles per hour of this fastball, but you'd rather see him throwing 92, especially, you know, in short stints. I want to mention too for Corbyn because I got a lot of feedback from this over the weekend one of the nationals beat writers I'm trying to find the exact name it was excitedly writing about how his velocity is up this spring and like Scott what's this about it was his velocity's up compared to where it was last spring which isn't meaningless no we've John Means over the weekend we saw the velocity jump in the third start.

And some pitchers we may see the velocity jump. Their first regular season starts. So there's definitely a danger about obsessing over low velocities. But when a guy's velocity was down during the regular season, I need to see him exceed that velocity before I'm ready to trust him again. And so that's where I'm at with Corbyn. Because it may be up from last spring, but it's not up from last season. Last season is when he had problems.

He does have a new pitch. He's working on a cutter that sort of splits the difference between his fastball and his slider and velocity. I don't, you know, it's impossible to say right now whether that'll be an effective pitch or, but it's with a pitcher like him or with any pitcher who is either not good or trending in the wrong direction, you want to see signs that they're not just resting on their laurels, you know, that they acknowledge, I need to improve. And so that's a, that's at the very least a good sign for him, even though it, you know, doesn't guarantee anything. Again, that is Patrick Corbyn, who is now 31 years old and will turn 32 in July. He led all qualified starting pitchers with a 1.57 whip last year. And of course, the velocity has been trending. I read, well, Chris, he gone. He back.

Chris is back. I read that Corbyn is trying to work in his change up a little bit more this year as well. pay attention to that in the spring. Let's wrap up here with, we haven't mentioned any relief pitchers, and of course there's a ton of volatility, but I think probably the face of boom or busts for relief pitchers

is Edwin Diaz, because he is so awesome when he pitches, but he's already been moved out of the closer roll twice in the past two years. Scott, more likely to happen, boom or bust, Edwin Diaz. Boom, but I have some reservations, because of, you know, he was mostly awesome last year, and the Mets had a really quick hook with him

and a really slow transition back into the closer roll. So, yeah, I think he's more likely to boom, but I'm generally not the guy making the investment in him. Chris, are you back in on Edwin Diaz, your boy? Yeah, I didn't have a lot of concern about him last year, even coming off to really bad 2019. And I basically have no concerns about him. I think he's one of the elite.

closers in baseball. I think he can be the very best closer in baseball. But I don't draft him much, just because I'm not looking to invest much in closer. Yep. And the investment right now for Edwin Diaz is non-existent. No, I'm just kidding. I have the wrong tab up on my ADP. Edwin Diaz is 85.6.

Yeah, like I just don't have much interest in drafting any closers inside of the top 100. But if I did, Edwin Diaz would serve. Certainly. Like, I would rather have him than Josh Hater at 55, just given the players I have to pass on. Like, I'm not sure Hater's going to give you more strikeouts. I'm not sure he's going to give you a better year. In fact, I would probably bet on Edwin Diaz having a better ERA. I think it's happened to in the last three years. Edwin Diaz is upside is he's the RP1. We've seen him do that before. He had over 50 saves in the season. It's hard to project saves, obviously. But if everything goes right, 35 plus saves, awesome ratios. Fantastic strikeouts for Diaz. The downside.

He's not the closer by May 1st, but we could probably say that about at least half of the projected closers in baseball. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank DeGlo for listening and watching fantasy baseball. Today, we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.