Fantasy Baseball Today - Brandon Nimmo's Epic Game! Buy Low, Sell High Candidates! (4/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 29, 2025

Brandon Nimmo had an historic game on Monday (3:09). ... Jeff McNeil is a deep-league target (6:28). ... Tomoyuki Sugano finally got some whiffs (12:30). ... News (17:24): Tyler Glasnow officially wen...t on the IL. ... Hunter Goodman continues to perform (23:50). ... Any interest in Griffin Canning or JP Sears (27:31)? ... Who are the top buy-low hitters right now (32:30)? ... Dylan Cease is one of the top buy-low pitchers (40:40)? ... Is Paul Goldschmidt a sell-high (44:35)? ... Time to sell-high on Brandon Pfaadt (51:41)? ... Did you realize (54:20)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (59:44). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠, ⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠ ⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠, ⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, Rishing. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Four for six, two homers, nine RBI. Brandon Nimbo, have yourself a day. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. On Tuesday, April 29th, I am Frank Stanfield. joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we'll do a little by low, sell high draft. I also have a did you realize segment.
Starting point is 00:00:43 We'll do some team name Tuesday and much more, but let's jump in. The impossible has happened. Oof, the impossible. I don't think it's fair to say Tomoyuki Sagano getting strikeouts is impossible. It sure seemed that way.
Starting point is 00:00:58 It really did. It was like eight strikeouts in 29 innings entering this game, and then it was 2.9K per 9 entering today. His career high was 4. Yeah. And then 9 it was 9 strikeouts in 28 innings and then he had 8 in this out of against the
Starting point is 00:01:13 I was just being funny guys. We will talk about Sagano in just a little bit. I want to start with these Metzies here. 19 to 5 over the Nationals. They put up 21 hits. They become the first team to 20 wins this season. They're doing all of that
Starting point is 00:01:29 while Juan Soto is not even hitting yet. So that makes it even more impressive. Their pitching staff has been great. Obviously, the lineup was awesome here. Brandon Nimmo, 4-for-6 with a double-dong, 9 RBI. He had five hard hits in this game. And even after this performance,
Starting point is 00:01:45 it's a 218-ERA, 679 OPS. So, you know, we've got some climbing to do here. The quality... Batting average, I think you meant not ERA. Yeah, that would make more sense. Batting average. What was the number? 219? 218 is what I wrote down.
Starting point is 00:02:00 679 OPS. Still hitting the bowl. all hard, 92.3 average eggs of velocity, 10.6% barrel rate. Both of those are very good, despite a ground ball rate that's a little bit elevated so far this season for Brendan Nimmo. He had the wonky spring training, dealt with the planter fasciitis all offseason. So I guess it's not overly surprising that he is off to a slow start, but obviously this game was incredible. And given how hard he's hitting the ball, I think better days are going to come for Brandon Nimmo. Me too. We're going to do, we're going to talk some by low, sell high players later in the show. And you asked us to pick a hitter and a pitcher for each. I might have chosen Nemo as my by low hitter. But it seems odd to say that on a day he sets a franchise record or ties a franchise record for RBI. Yeah, I don't get it. He's on pace for 122 RBI. It doesn't seem like a by low at all. I don't know what you guys are talking about.
Starting point is 00:03:00 No, but the quality of contact's great. He's striking out less this year. The walks are down, but I think that'll come. His sprint speed is also down. That's the one thing that stands out. Yeah, which is understandable, given the foot issues that have carried over from last year. But last year was also his first year as a double-digit base dealer.
Starting point is 00:03:25 So I don't think that was something we were really counting on from him anyway. And just if you're looking at the pure hitting metrics, I don't see any reason for concern here with Brandon Nemo. I will say, just in full disclosure, you know, Nimmo was one of my most drafted players this year. I sat him in a league for the first time this week. It was a head-to-head league, so it's not like I'm going to carry around that mistake all season like in Roto. So that's the silver lining. But like, if you were 50-50 to win this week, you might have been a 90% chance to win.
Starting point is 00:04:10 After today. Yeah. What's funny is I almost sat him in a couple other leagues, including a five outfielder in L-only league, because I'm just so overloaded with outfielders in that league. I talked myself out of it and sat Max Kepler instead. Thank goodness. because it would have been a lot harder to live that down in an NL only.
Starting point is 00:04:33 Yeah. And let that be a lesson, I guess, to everybody, right? I mean, you know, stick it out with the players you had conviction on heading into the season. And Brendan Nemo, pretty established player at this point in his career. So, you know, more often than not, Scott, as you like to say, everything kind of evens out as the season goes on. And this was a big, even out type of game for Brendan Mow. Chris, your player of the night was also in this game. Yeah, Jeff McMillard.
Starting point is 00:04:58 Neil, who I don't think we've really talked much about. He's only played three games since coming back. He is four for 12. He hit his first home run in this one. And the thing that I wanted to keep an eye on was the bat speed because Jeff McNeil added about a mile and a half per hour to his average bat speed in the second half of last season. And he had this really good second half of the season that kind of went under the radar a little bit. but he had a 923 OPS. He hit 289. And his bat speed is up even more so far this season.
Starting point is 00:05:34 It's a very, very small sample size. But it's what I wanted to see from Jeff McNeil. We can't draw any firm conclusions here, but he showed some signs of life in the second half last season. He's showing some signs of life early on here. I think it's interesting. I'm not saying Jeff McNeil needs to be universally rostered, but where I had a roster spot to play with when I did my waivers yesterday,
Starting point is 00:06:05 Jeff McNeil was one of the guys I was targeting in, you know, mostly deeper leagues. I might have added him in one point league, but I do think there's a chance Jeff McNeil is a 280 hitter this season. I'm not saying he's a superstar or anything. I'm not even saying he's going to win a batting title like he once did. He won a batting title.
Starting point is 00:06:26 Well, all right. Yeah, he did. In 2022. 280, 12 home runs in a good lineup. I think that's reasonable for Jeffrey Meal. Is that good enough to matter in most leagues? Because that feels like Jake Croninworth adjacent, like the shape of the production is a little different.
Starting point is 00:06:47 Sure. Few fewer home runs and more batting average. But that's, you know, it's, it's, not a high-end outcome that you're pitching there. And that's reasonable. That's reasonable. It's been a long time since Jeff McNeil was like an impactful player in fantasy and pretty skeptical he could do it again.
Starting point is 00:07:11 But just to provide the actual numbers with that added bat speed in the second half last year, he hit 289 with a 923 OPS. And then on his rehab assignment in eight games, he slashed three. 393, 459, 643 with two home runs. And then he comes up, this was a second game back. This was, he started three of four. Third. Yeah, third game.
Starting point is 00:07:37 Okay. So he's a triple in a home run. So he keeps delivering in these small samples. Like, I don't know what to make of the bat speed thing yet. I don't feel like anybody really knows. It's just kind of a fun new toy that people like to cite. And maybe it needs to be cited to a certain extent. extent so we can figure out what's going on with it.
Starting point is 00:07:58 But I don't know how predictive it is. I don't know how sticky it is. I don't know how much it fluctuates over the course of the season. So I just don't, I'm reluctant to cite it personally because I don't, it doesn't mean anything to me yet. But we'll come to find out this year, this year being the second year that we have that data available to us. For a false speed.
Starting point is 00:08:22 For comparison. Yeah, I was only, what, how much was. Is it available last year? It was, so the data that we have is the second half of 2023, all of 2024, and moving forward. So it started two years ago. But they didn't, it wasn't available to look at until last year. Until last year. Okay.
Starting point is 00:08:40 So yeah, now we're getting, now we can, now we have something to compare it to with each individual player. And that's going to tell us more. Will it reveal anything that other numbers don't already reveal? I'm kind of skeptical of that. I agree. But it is the fun new toy. For me, it's one potential explanation beyond just this guy is locked in or hot or however you want it. Like, we'll talk about Paul Goldschmidt a little later on the show.
Starting point is 00:09:14 Spoiler alert. And he's one of those guys where I think like he's just hot. There doesn't seem to be like an underlying mechanical explanation for why he's doing so well this season. Whereas with Jeff McNeil, at least it does give us a thing to look at to say, it might not have just been Jeff McNeil was swinging the bat well. There was an underlying change to the skill set. I think like in a vacuum bat speed matters, but it's not hugely important. But I think the changes can be where there can be some utility.
Starting point is 00:09:52 Jeff McNeil, 23% rostered has second base and. outfield eligibility. I think mostly deep leagues, I think maybe could be useful in 12 team roto leagues as a bench piece. Just kind of plug them in whenever you need, wherever you need help. And it's cheap... It's cheap exposure to
Starting point is 00:10:09 it looks to be a pretty good Mets lineup as well. Last name here, Mark Viento's 2 for 4 with two walks and his third home run and he's picking things up last nine games batting 353, three homers, 10 RBI and an OPS over a thousand for Mark Viento.
Starting point is 00:10:25 Scott, over you for your player of the night, Tomo Yuki Sugano. Finally, some strikeouts. Just real quick with Viantos, I want to point out his home run was hit off a position player. So it still counts officially, but does it count from a project ahead perspective? I don't know that it does. So I'll just say that for Viantos. Like, he's bound to improve. But, yeah, it wasn't like a, it wasn't like a true competitive.
Starting point is 00:10:55 competitive home run that he hit. Okay. Sugano. What the heck happened here? Because I had a lot of shares in Sugano at the start of the season all the way through week five, what's officially known as week five. I held on, I gave him an honest chance, and he just showed nothing. We talked about how bad the strikeout rate was.
Starting point is 00:11:22 No individual pitch had a good whiff rate. he was giving up hard contact it just seemed like he might have plus control and that's it and I don't think that's enough and so he's on just beginning here in week six he's on far fewer of my rosters now and then he does this
Starting point is 00:11:43 where for the first time he shows genuine swing and missability particularly on that splitter and 17 whiffs overall from Sagano nine came on the splitter which he threw less in this one actually. He led with his sweeper instead 10 percentage points higher. It was up 1.7 miles per hour. So there was kind of a change in what pitches he through and what they looked like. The sweeper had the splitter, excuse me, had more drop in this one, which may have had a
Starting point is 00:12:14 couple more inches of drop, which may have helped its effectiveness. There aren't a lot of interesting pitchers to add. And so he may have by default put himself back in that conversation. particularly in deeper leagues. You know, I'm sure we'll get to him later. I'm reluctant to talk for too long and once. I'm sure we'll get to him later in the show, but a lot of people were asking me if they could finally drop Gavin Williams
Starting point is 00:12:36 after he followed up his one good start with a bad one, another bad one. And like you can. I'm probably not going to because I see what's out there at starting pitcher and there's less to dream on for any of that than there. is for Gavin Williams.
Starting point is 00:12:56 Saying that as somebody who doesn't have a lot of confidence in Gavin Williams turning things around. A lot of hope for that still. But that hope is more than zero. And for a lot of the pitchers on the waiver wire,
Starting point is 00:13:09 it's effectively zero. Yeah, I think I would have to get one of these upside names called up to drop like a Gavin Williams for them, above a Chandler, Zebby Matthew, something like, someone just that has more upside. You know, we've had some names
Starting point is 00:13:23 kind of come through here. Sagano today, but it's a lot of kind of Jameson, Andrew Heaney types. Maybe they keep it up, but they're mostly just streamer types. I don't know that I'd do it for Zebby Matthews at this point because
Starting point is 00:13:37 David Festa's back in the minors now. I only meant like if he was getting called up. If we found out of Zebby Matthews was called up tomorrow I would make that move. Right. Yeah. I was okay, fair enough. I did want to make the point that Zebby Matthews doesn't feel a stashable anymore. Right.
Starting point is 00:13:53 All right, before we hit our first break, make sure to download and follow FBT and FBT Express on Spotify. If you are watching on YouTube, you can scan that QR code that will take you right to the FBT Spotify feed. And a reminder that if you do listen on Spotify, you can leave some thoughts in the episode comments per episode. And thanks to those watching us live, make sure to hit the like button, subscribe to the channel,
Starting point is 00:14:18 if you haven't already. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. News and notes, Tyler Glassnow was officially placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Did you guys read here, see anything about a potential timeline? I feel like shoulder stuff is just very ambiguous. I didn't see anything specific now.
Starting point is 00:14:41 Yeah. All right. Is he a must hold in leagues that don't have IL spots? Yeah, I think so. Certainly until we get a timetable. Yep. Cole Riggins is, Uncertain to make his next start on Wednesday against the race.
Starting point is 00:14:56 So hopefully you got him out of the lineup, or if you're playing a daily lineup league, I guess he'll find out. If he's in there, you can use him. But either way, you might want to just play it safe with Cole Regens. Jordan Westberg was placed on the aisle with a left hamstring strain, and he is off to a slow start as well. So maybe the break will be good for him.
Starting point is 00:15:14 I know he was dealing with kind of some nagging injuries all season here. So maybe it'll be nice for Jordan Westberg, to just get 10 days of rest, come back. Although I'm not sure that he'll be back in the minimum time, but assuming that's what it is, I think it maybe could be beneficial for Jordan Westberg. And no, the Orioles did not promote Kobe Mayo
Starting point is 00:15:35 to take his place. They selected Emmanuel Rivera from AAA instead. Kobe Mayo is betting 256 with four home runs and 861 OPS at AAA this season, but it feels like it would probably have to be more of a long-term move if they were going to call up Kobe Mayo. right. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:53 I don't know. If they even like him, I don't, I'm not even going to pretend to, to try to figure out what's going on with the Orioles and Kobe Mayo. It just, like, it doesn't make any sense
Starting point is 00:16:07 that he's been down as long as he has. Well, they gave a shot at the end of last season and he struck out in half his plate appearances. Yeah, but. It was miserable. On almost any other team, he's got a starting job already.
Starting point is 00:16:21 And I understand why he doesn't. And I can also understand if they think it's just a 10 day thing for Jordan Westberg. If they don't have a spot for Kobe Mayo, then why call him up? Well, because you're not very good right now and you could use a boost, right? Like he's a better player than Emmanuel Rivera. But I don't know that they, he's played mostly first base at AAA. this year and his defense has long been an issue for Mayo. So I don't know that they'd really want to play him at third base in the majors.
Starting point is 00:17:01 If they could help it, that might be part of it. All right, Blake Snell received an injection to assist in treating his left shoulder inflammation. Some good Dodgers news. Tony Gonslin is expected to make his season debut Wednesday against the Marlins, 37% rostered. You know, once upon a time, Tony Gonsland did have some upside. I mean, he was really good. Yeah, I mean, for like a three-year stretch, 20-20 through 2022. He was a really good pitcher.
Starting point is 00:17:30 And I will note, his velocity in his rehab assignment is back to where it was in 2022. Now, look, we didn't think the 2022 production was sustainable. But I think he had a sub three ERA across those three seasons. Would you guys drop Gavin Williams for Tony Gonson? Yeah, I would. I don't have a lot of confidence in Tony Gonsolin being a useful fantasy option this long after this much time missed to injury and with the recognition that he probably needs to he'll need to work deep enough into games to matter and I think that's going to be the biggest turtle for him of all. So I probably want to drop Gavin Williams for it.
Starting point is 00:18:18 but if you're just that eager to drop Williams, I'm not going to fight you on it because it's exhausting. I do just want to say with Gonsolin from 2019 to 2022, he was up and down. Like it was only one full season and even that was only 24 starts, but he did make 51 starts over those four seasons. 251 ERA, okay, that wasn't real. But it was a strikeout per inning.
Starting point is 00:18:41 It was a 345 fit. And he's not just coming back directly from Tommy John surgery. He pitched in the minors at the end of last season with Tommy, coming back from the Tommy John, I believe. And this year it was the back injury in spring that delayed him. And I think partially limiting his innings a little bit. So I'm not saying Tony Gonson's definitely going to be a superstar, but. Well, no.
Starting point is 00:19:08 I think he's been good. Yeah, like I used to like Tony Gonson. It's just been, you know, anytime, anytime, kind of a fringy performer comes back. And I understand that the percentages were great, but he never had the volume to make him more than a fringy performer. And any time a fringy performer comes back from a long injury absence, I just, I'm just, it's just hard to muster much enthusiasm for that guy.
Starting point is 00:19:36 Luis Arise is expected to be activated from the seven-day concussion IL on Tuesday. Tyler Stevenson will be reevaluated at the end of this week. He's currently on a rehab assignment for his strained left oblique. The hope is that Yvonne Herrera will begin a rehab assignment as soon as this Thursday. Zach Eifflin is scheduled to throw another bullpen on Tuesday. He is on the IL with a right latch train. Grayson Rodriguez was transferred to the 60-day IL, which makes sense. He was recently diagnosed with a mild right-latch train and will not be back by the end of May.
Starting point is 00:20:10 So it's going to take longer time than that. Luis Heel began a throwing program on Sunday. He's on the IL with a right-latch train and likely, won't be back until at least June. And the Braves brought back an old friend, Eddie Rosario and optioned Jared Kelnick, back to AAA. I mean, Eddie Rosario and Jesse Chavez, back with the Braves.
Starting point is 00:20:32 Let's go. World Series runtime. Party like it's 1999. Not that long ago, but, you know, it's... It does feel like it in some ways. The more things change, the more they stay the same, the Atlanta Braves, man. Just bringing back some of these old.
Starting point is 00:20:48 these but goodies here. Waiverwire hitters from Monday, not too much going on, but I'll just quickly run through some of the names. Hunter Goodman, a name we talk about a lot. One for four with his fifth home run of the season in 828 OPS. He has played every game except three for the Rockies this season. That is just
Starting point is 00:21:04 so valuable for a catcher in fantasy. He is 66% rostered. I feel like we probably have done this recently, but let's do it again. How would you guys rank? Augustine Ramirez, Sean Murphy and Hunter Goodman. Agustin Ramirez. Sean Murphy and Hunter Goodman.
Starting point is 00:21:29 Scott, Scott, hop out, Scott, hop out and hop back in if you can. It's, you have that same ranking, Chris, Ramirez, Sean Murphy, Hunter Goodman? Yes, yes, I do. I would, we haven't mentioned him very much, but I'd throw Edward Edgar Caro in that mix. I think he's probably at the bottom of that list,
Starting point is 00:21:50 but he's not too far behind Hunter Goodman for me. All right. And would you guys drop either Austin Wells or Cabr Ruiz for Hunter Goodman? I'm okay with that. Yeah. Nah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:07 You know the meme of Larry David, and he's kind of like, eh. Mm. Eh. You know, that's kind of how I feel. Like, if it makes, makes you happy. I don't have strong enough feelings either way.
Starting point is 00:22:21 All right. In a one catcher league, I think you would be okay just riding in a hot hand. And Hunter Goodman obviously has been better than those other names. So I'm okay with it there if you want to, you know, get rid of the colder catchers. Kabe Ruiz has actually been okay. He's just not really hitting for much power. I do think Kaber Ruiz is the lowest upside of them. So if it's a shallower league, I'd rather go for Goodman or Wells. Ryan O'Hurne continues to do Ryan O'Hern. Things one for four with his. fifth home run. He is batting 300 with a 929 OPS hitting the ball hard. Expected stats look great. They always do for Ryan O'Hern. We know that he does not play against left-handed pitching, but he is someone that you can take advantage of when the schedule is right. If you play in daily
Starting point is 00:23:02 lineup leagues, that's another area for you to use Ryan O'Hern. Gavin Lux is a name we have not talked much about. He continues to hit for batting average. Not much else. Three for four with two doubles here. He's batting 352, but it's one homer, one steel. a 9-11 OPS, a 49% rostered. Where are you guys at on Gavin Lux? Not really in a different place. So the 12-game hitting streak he's on now
Starting point is 00:23:30 is batting 512 during it. So he's very odd. But his max axis of velocity this year is only 106.2. Like the whole quality of contact profile hasn't really changed for Gavin Lux. I think the main thing driving this hot streak is just that his line drive rate is very, very, very high. And that's something that takes a long time to normalize. And particularly for a guy with an extended track record like Gavin Lux, I'm not going to sit here and tell you he's a brand new player.
Starting point is 00:24:10 I think he can ride the hot hand with him if you want, but he's also somebody who sits sometimes against lefties. I just don't think he's that interesting. Would you guys rather take a shot on Gavin Lux or Jeff McNeal? They're kind of the same guy. I'd probably go with McNeil. Better line up. Yeah, I would say McNeil. All right.
Starting point is 00:24:31 Waverwire pitchers from Monday. We already spoke about Tomoyuki Sugano. A couple other names here. Griffin Canning continues to pitch well. Five shutout innings, five strikeouts. And he is down to a 261 ERA, 139 whip. Obviously, that's a little bit high. high for Griffin Canning.
Starting point is 00:24:49 J.P. Sears pitched well at the Rangers, five and two-thirds innings, one run, seven strikeouts, zero walks. He's down to a 294, ERA 107 whip. Andre Palante, quality start at the Reds, six innings, three runs, four strikeouts. Nick Martinez, six innings, one run, three strikeouts on the other side of that one.
Starting point is 00:25:08 His first quality start of the season for Nick Martinez. Do you guys have any genuine interest in any of the last? those four. Griffin Canning, J.P. Sears, Andre Palante, Nick Martinez. I think it totally depends on what you mean by genuine interest. Uh, because my interest in any of these guys extends as far as the next matchup. Like, whatever, if they have a bottom 10, I don't know what the matchup is for any of these guys next time around. If any of them have a bottom 10 offense on the way out, sure, add them, hang on to them, whatever.
Starting point is 00:25:45 But I don't think there's any long-term upside with any of these guys. Canning is probably the closest, but I don't think the Mets are ever going to let him pitch deep into games consistently. I think they, you see it with Tyler McGill, you see it with David Peterson. Like they can find success with these types of pitchers. They also really know how careful they need to be with them. And so I think that's going to limit the upside. Yeah, I don't even know that I'm. that interested in them is matchup plays.
Starting point is 00:26:18 I mean, I'm going to be forced to be interested in them at matchup plays because I have to write an article of matchup plays every week. So from a writing perspective, I guess I'm interested, but it's reluctant enthusiasm when they have good matchups. I just don't think there's a lot to see here. J.P. Sears, his velocity was actually down quite a bit in this start. he's a very high fly ball pitcher, like extreme flyball pitcher. And so when the contact is soft enough, when the venue is big enough, he can have starts like this.
Starting point is 00:26:52 But the pendulum's going to swing the other way. The fly ball rate give it, then the fly ball rate take it the way. And it's going to take it the way from J.P. Steers at some point. And then Nick Martinez, who I did like coming into this season, he finally has a quality start. But what I liked about him was the elite control. showed last year. And even in this start, even in this quality start for Nick Martinez, 59% of his pitches for strikes. That's not good. Yeah. It's starting to look like last year was a pretty clear outlier for Nick Martinez.
Starting point is 00:27:26 And in terms of the control, it was under two walks per nine. But for most of his career, he's been around three walks per nine. So that's probably the expectation here for Nick Martinez. Bryce Elder had a quality start, deep leagues. Blah, doesn't matter. Right. Sure. Perfect. All right. Let's take our final break. When you're your turn, we'll do a little buy low, sell high draft. We'll do that right after this quick commercial break. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's talk some trade targets. Buy low, sell high draft. Chris, you have the first overall pick. We'll give out one hitter, one pitcher each, but you can decide which one you want to give out first. And then it will. In what order? It'll snake back to you as well. So yeah, well, have a little fun with it. Chris, you're up. You're on the clock. First of all picked.
Starting point is 00:28:15 The one I'm most sure of is Jordon Alvarez as a by-low candidate. He did leave Monday's game after an awkward slide, but I think he had an abat afterwards. So I don't think there's much to it. I know I've seen some people freaking out in the chat, but I haven't seen any indication that it's anything to be concerned about. But yeah, Rafael Devers has the third biggest gap between his Wobah and his ex-WOBA. You mean, you mean, you mean, you mean, Alvarez. Yeah. What did I say?
Starting point is 00:28:44 Devers said Rafael Devers. Yeah. Rafael Devers also a by low option. Mike Trout also a by a low option. I read about those guys last week. And I was looking at their names. That's why I said them. Yordon Alvarez has the third biggest gap between his ex-Woba and his Woba right now of any
Starting point is 00:28:59 header in the majors. And even if that wasn't the case, Yardon Alvarez would be one of the most obvious by-low candidates because he has not put up good numbers. and I am extremely, extremely confident that he will be one of the 10 or so best hitters in fantasy moving forward. I have zero concerns about Yordon Averaz. I think that Astros lineup is going to be much better moving forward. I think it's going to be good moving forward. So, yeah, Yordon Averiz, any easy by low candidate if anyone is worried.
Starting point is 00:29:36 I see this suite here from Chandler Rome who covers the Astros. Jordan Alvarez, who did not look comfortable after his slide into second base. And the sixth inning is pinch run for after a seventh inning single. That was an RBI single. Make it all back, Chris. For Alvarez. You know, the one thing I was just going to point out is there were, it seemed like, organizationally, there was a little bit more concern about Alvarez and his knees this
Starting point is 00:30:00 offseason compared to previous off seasons, where they came out early and they said, we don't really want to play him in the outfield as much. we really kind of just want to dedicate the D.H spot to Yordon Alvarez. So it's always kind of scared me just like under the hood, like under the radar. Maybe this knee thing or both knees could pop up again sometime. But he was a second round pick. It still might. Like you still ranked him as a second rounder this year, right?
Starting point is 00:30:27 Yeah. I mean, he was one of these players where I ranked him in the second round, but I didn't really want to take him. I was a little bit worried about it. You still ranked him in the second round. Yes. Assuming what happened on Monday wasn't serious and the fact that he stayed in, got an RBI single and then left the game
Starting point is 00:30:43 tells me that it probably wasn't all that serious. Yeah, I, I, I'm not going to, does not worry you at all. I'm not going to say it doesn't worry me at all. It doesn't worry me any more than it did before the season when I had him as a top 15 player. And I like,
Starting point is 00:31:02 his performance doesn't concern me either. My, my view of Yordon Alvarez is no different. than it was a month ago. If there was nothing about the knees or anything this off season, I would 1,000% agree with you. Performance-wise,
Starting point is 00:31:17 I have no doubt that he would get back on track. It's just, what if these knees have been an issue early on in the season, and that's why he's off to a slow start? It's at least a possibility. We don't have anything to back that up. I just think that would show up somewhere in the numbers.
Starting point is 00:31:31 And it doesn't. Right? Like, that's the thing is he, it'd be one thing if there was like this giant decline in spring, speed, but there isn't. He's, his sprint speeds just as low as it was last season. It'd be one thing if he was striking out a ton, but he's not.
Starting point is 00:31:45 His strikeout rates two percentage points higher than it was last year. His quality of contact remains elite. Like, I just, I don't see any reason to think that there's anything wrong with Yard on Alvarez. All right, Scott, over to you. Next pick, by low. I co-signed to Alvarez, by the way. I think I co-signed to all of these picks because we did discuss them ahead of time.
Starting point is 00:32:06 so just though I don't have to keep saying that, co-signed to all. And hopefully you guys co-signed to this one, which is Matt Olson. He is my by-low hitter. And even if I looked at his stack-ass page and there were some alarming numbers there, it wouldn't concern me,
Starting point is 00:32:26 given his track record, given how early it is. But I look at his tag-ass page, and it looks awesome. Average eggs of velocity, 94.9 miles per hour, max, 113.8. those are just as good as they always are for Matt Olson. Expected batting average 277, expected slug 577. These are all outcomes in the above the 90th percentile, pretty much across the board here.
Starting point is 00:32:56 And then the most encouraging stat of all for Matt Olson, he's struck out less than 18% of the time. If you go look through Matt Olson's history, any time he keeps that strikeout rate, 20%, amazing things happen. I'm thinking specifically of the 2021 season, where he managed to do it for the full season, and he hit 271 with 39 homers and 9-11 OPS. And I'm thinking of the second half of 2023, which was the year when he hit 54 homers,
Starting point is 00:33:29 but especially in the second half, a 321 batting average in a 1077 OPS with that strike rate below 20%. I don't know. they can sustain that strikeout rate all season. But the point is, like, he's making tons of contact more than he normally does, and it's very hard contact. I will say a little too much of it's on the ground.
Starting point is 00:33:50 And so maybe that explains why, despite all these good signs for Olson, the numbers aren't what we want them to be. But that's going to correct itself in time. And that wouldn't be, like, if there are, when you're ranking red, flags for a hitter, that would be pretty low on the rank list for me when it's so far outside the norm for a player. So I think Matt Olson's great. By the way, I'll note he used a torpedo bat for the first time here on Monday night, him and Austin Riley both. So if you like torpedo bats, that's another point in Matt Olson's favor. I was actually a little disappointed to
Starting point is 00:34:28 see it just because it introduces a wrinkle that I don't think he needs to go on to have a stud outcome, but notably he's using a torpedo bat, at least for one night. Completely 1,000% agree on Matt Olson. He was the name I wrote down as well. The other hitter for me was going to be Bo Bichette, which won't surprise anybody who listened to this podcast throughout draft season. Bo is currently the 10th biggest underachiever in expected Wobo so far. His XBA is 335. His expected slug is 513. Tons of line drives, something he's always done.
Starting point is 00:35:04 90.2 average exit velocity and his pulled air percentage, which is I think something I'm going to start to cite more. I know that you guys have brought it up already as well. If you go to Stackcast pages now, you can see pulled air percentage, which is kind of what we want to see for power. And Bose pulled air percentage, 16%. That's the highest it's been since 2020. So to me, that is a good thing. And I think good things are going to happen soon here for Bo Bauda Chet. Bilo. Yeah. And I think Boba Chet's a good pick because, first of all, it was my backup pick. And second of all, there was already so much skepticism for him coming into the season that I think a lot of people are going to throw up their hands and say, okay, that was a failed experiment. Time to move on. I think I think it's a true bylaw. I think people are going to let you get him for cheap. Yeah. The data looks great. All right. I'm going to transition into round two here of our bylaw. We'll move over to pitchers now. and I don't know which one we settle on, Scott. I'll let you have the Atlanta Brave by a low pitcher as well. And I will take Dylan Sees, who currently has a 576 ERA and a 162 whip. All the underlying numbers look much better.
Starting point is 00:36:16 It's a 315 FIP, 367 X-FIP, 355 Sierra, 378 expected ERA. Really not far off from last year. Chris, I know you talk a lot about the ride, the journey with Dylan Seas. It definitely can be frustrating. but I do think that we will get some big starts here coming soon throughout the rest of the season. And maybe those numbers don't get all the way down to like a low threes ERA. But can he, you know, get everything down to like the mid to high threes ERA
Starting point is 00:36:44 with a bunch of strikeouts and an okay whip on a really good team? Yes, I do think that will happen for Dylan Cs. And I would be looking to Bilo now. Scott, back over to you for your Bilo pitcher. I actually wanted C's, but that's fine. I'll take Chris Sale. who is For people who aren't watching
Starting point is 00:37:04 Yes, Scott is wearing his brave shirt today One of several I try to wear a brave shirt once a week I try not to repeat a shirt At any time in a month You know, I've tried to expand my My arsenal of baseball shirts So that I never have to because I don't want people to say
Starting point is 00:37:24 Hey, didn't Scott just wear that shirt The other day? I want people to, forget all the shirts I have, and it'd always be a surprise every day. So I have way too many T-shirts now, and my wife is getting upset. But anyway, Chris Sale is, I don't think, as much of a lock as cease, because, of course, there were all the concerns for sale coming into the year. And he hasn't been quite as sharp this year.
Starting point is 00:37:54 His pitches have been down a little bit in velocity, though that's improved a lot. lot in recent starts and really everything has started to look better for Chris Sale in recent starts. And so if we have assurance that he's healthy right now, I think that's all we really need to have to trust in him to deliver a high-end outcome. It's 11.4k per 9 for him, which is exactly the same as last year. The walk rate has run a little bit high, but it's not like, it's not like it's a bad walk rate. It's 2.9 per 9 innings. He has given up a lot of hits. But, like, he has a 400 BAP-EP, you know?
Starting point is 00:38:36 Like, clearly unsustainable the number of Chris, hits Chris Sale is giving up. So I think, I think if people have concerns about it right now, it's a good time to buy. All right, Chris, finish us out here on our, uh, by low portion of the draft. I would never be a homer. Just to be clear, nobody could ever accuse me of being a homer. and the fact that Sandy Alcantra pitches for the Marlins is totally irrelevant to anything. Don't look at the hat that I'm wearing.
Starting point is 00:39:06 No, Sandy Alcantra's stuff looks perfectly fine. If you look at the stuff plus metric on fan graphs, he has a 109. It was 110 prior to his Tommy John surgery. The stuff is all the way back. They often say the command is the last thing to come back when you're coming back from a significant arm injury. the fact that he had his turn skipped into rotation immediately after his first start of the season probably didn't help and he's going to be traded at some point
Starting point is 00:39:37 and his value will probably be higher in the second half than it currently is all of those things I think make Sandy Alcantra a very, very good buy low candidate, especially because I think it's going to be really low with the way the last three starts are going. I know the last one was better, but he certainly hasn't been a must start pitcher yet. All right, Chris, transition us back into over to sell high candidates. Who's your first pick for sell high? Let's go with Paul Goldschmidt because this one's a slightly different
Starting point is 00:40:10 than I think a lot of the arguments we're going to make, which are going to be like what I what we've said about Matt Olson or Yordaun Alvarez, where you look at the underlying numbers and they're very, very good and the production just hasn't been there. Paul Goldschmidt's underlying numbers are actually very, very good. They largely back up what he's done. Okay, a 361 batting average versus 307 XBA. That's not backing it up entirely, but it's 92nd percentile XBA, so I don't think it makes sense to call it a fluke. The thing for me is when you look at the underlying data, the swing speed is not any higher than it was last season. So he's not generating more bat speed. His plate discipline metrics, swing decisions look very, very similar to last year.
Starting point is 00:40:56 His chase rate almost identical. His in-zone swing rate almost identical. I think this is a classic example of what we talked about earlier, of a hitter just being locked in. And that can last for months sometimes. It doesn't last forever. And I think in Paul Goldschmidt's case, he's still the same declining skill set guy. he was coming into the season, he's just run hot.
Starting point is 00:41:22 For a month, I will take advantage of the opportunity to sell, especially because he's run hot mostly on singles. Like, it's not like there's been zero power, but he hasn't been like crushing a ton of home runs. He has three home runs, four home runs on the season. I think it's one. Yeah, okay. One home run.
Starting point is 00:41:39 Even better. He had a home run robbed actually here on Monday night. See, proving my point. The worm is already starting to turn for Paul Gulchman. So that's, yeah, I think he's a fairly easy sell-high candidate. Scott, sell-high hitter. I'm going to say Tommy Edmund is a cell high hitter. He just walked it off.
Starting point is 00:42:01 Come on, Scott. Yeah. He has, was it a home run? Was it his ninth home run? No, it was a two-run single. In any case, he has eight home runs. Tommy Edmund is among the league leaders and home runs. And that's been the bulk of his production so far this year.
Starting point is 00:42:16 And like Tommy Edmund is not going to be among the league leaders and home runs. home runs. I know he has higher fly ball rate, higher pull rate this year, and those can help make up for shortcomings and exit velocity, but I don't think it's going to help enough to turn Tommy Edmund here to for a 12 home run guy into like a hulking power hitter who's going to hit upward of 30 home runs. And so what do we really need Tommy Edmund to do to be of great value in fantasy? We need him to steal bases. So far he's only he only has. one of those. And of course, you know, stolen bases don't aren't even lead distributed over the course of the season and maybe he'll get a bunch that in a short period of time that that catches him up. But I just don't think there's a lot of incentive for him to run in the Dodgers lineup. And I just, I get the feeling, you know, he had six and 37 games last year. That's an okay pace. That's probably like 20. If the season had played out in full for him with the Dodgers. But it's not, it's not, it's not like he was running in St. Louis
Starting point is 00:43:20 and it could be even less this year. So maybe he's a 20-homer 15 steel guy when all is said and done this year. But I think just the kind of headlines he's drawn so far, you could sell him as more than that. That'll have value in fantasy, but 2015 as a second basement outfielder,
Starting point is 00:43:37 but I think you could treat him like a stud second basement potentially, and I don't think he's that. The one thing that would make me be willing to buy into Tommy Edmund a little bit is he is a guy who, has tweaked his swing and his stance a little bit from the left side of the plate. No, from the right side of the plate.
Starting point is 00:43:57 He has always had better power from the right side of the plate. And he has tweaked his stance a little bit. He's generating a little more bat speed. Like I look at all that and I think, okay, yeah, that could be like the problem is most of his plate appearances are from the left side of the plate. And his bat speed is actually down from the previous season. and yet four of his home runs have come from the left side of the plate. So that's where I think it's especially skeptical. Like I could see Tommy Edmund taking a step forward as a left hand or a right-handed hitter,
Starting point is 00:44:31 but that's the smaller side of the platoon. And it just doesn't seem like enough to justify what we've seen so far. So I mostly agree here. I think Edmund, like I liked him much more than consensus. I think he's around a top 100 player moving forward. But yeah, if someone's valuing as a top 50 player, I think he's a pretty easy trade.
Starting point is 00:44:57 I think you have to sell really high. And we should stress that here. This isn't just, we're not saying sell this player because we think they're going to collapse. We might say that about some of these players. We're not saying that about this specific player and Tommy Edmund.
Starting point is 00:45:10 We'll just point out, his pulled air percentage is up like much higher than it's ever been before. And not someone who typically has Hulking power. So it feels like him pulling the ball in the air makes a lot more sense for him to get to power. And the expected stats entering today, 297XBA 564X slug for Tommy. He's earned it so far. Yeah, he is off to a tremendous start.
Starting point is 00:45:32 If you're going to sell high, it's got to be really high on Tommy Edmund. I will mention two hitters. I don't think he's actually that good is the thing. Like just because the expected stats, I don't know that I agree entirely with your last sentence there, that it's got to be really high. I think he's probably going to be about a 260 hitter with 20 homers and 15 steals. And that has value. But I think you could sell him as more than that.
Starting point is 00:45:57 Like I said. Yeah, I think it's kind of a difference of opinion. I know you didn't like him as much coming into the season. And Chris and I did like Tommy Edmund quite a bit. I'm not buying, you know, him being one of the best power hitters in the game now. But I think it wouldn't surprise me if he can kind of push 25 home runs. And like at some point, I think he will run more.
Starting point is 00:46:16 Well, that's the thing. I think the steals are going to come when the homers slow down. Yeah, so maybe it's a 2020 bat with like an okay batting average. And the counting stats should be really good in the Dodgers lineup. Sell highs for me. People are going to crush me here. This is, look, selling really high, as high as you possibly can. Like, send out ridiculous offers that people shouldn't accept
Starting point is 00:46:37 and just see what you can get for these guys if you can get that. Don't just sell for the sake of it. Cedric Mullins and Pete Crow Armstrong are currently top 24 players. in Roto this season. I don't think that they're going to finish as top 24 players in Roto this season. I think this could potentially be a real breakout for Pekker Armstrong and maybe we're drafting him as like a top 50 player next year. That is possible. But again, just try and sell really high because I don't think that they're going to maintain being top 25 players rest of season. Sell high on a pitcher. For me, it's Seth Lugo. We mentioned the name yesterday. Chris, he's coming
Starting point is 00:47:14 off his best start of the season. I agree with everything that you. said the strikeouts, the swinging strike rate is down, the walks are up, he's allowing more hard contact, he's coming off his best start of the season again. So those things could regulate, like maybe the strikeouts just get better and the walks come down. But, you know, I didn't have such high expectations for Seth Lugo. And coming off this start, if you can pair him with another player to buy low on like a top 20, top 25 starting pitcher who's struggling, Yes, I absolutely would be looking to do that. Scott, back to you for a sell-high pitcher.
Starting point is 00:47:51 Brandon Fott, who I didn't like coming into the season, and people are going to say I was just wrong about that, but I don't think so. Okay, so he is 5-1 with a 278 ERA so far. He's been a top 10 pitcher in fantasy, but the already unimpressive swinging strike rate is down. The K per 9 is 7.3. His expected ERA, I remember I said his actual ERA is 278.
Starting point is 00:48:24 The expected ERA is 498. He still doesn't have like any pitch in his arsenal. That's a big bad messer. The sweeper is the best one. But the whiff rate on that is at 20. No, I'm sorry, 39%. He got a lot of whiffs in the last start. So that actually looks decent.
Starting point is 00:48:43 but I expect it'll go down because that was kind of fueled by just the one start. And again, his overall swinging strike rate, very poor. So, yeah, I think he's a big phony. Brandon thought, trade him for something good because I don't think he'll be good for long. A big fought, phony. Chris, take us home. So high pitcher. Tyler Malley, this one feels pretty obvious.
Starting point is 00:49:08 He's had basically the one big strikeout game where he had nine and six innings against the Angels. And as I've pointed out a few times, everybody is getting nine strikeouts against the Angels these days. I had a nine strikeout start against the Angels last week. Other than that, it's been no more than five strikeouts in any start for Tyler Malley. And even that, only one start besides the nine strikeout with more than five.
Starting point is 00:49:33 I think he's a below average strikeout pitcher. The control has not been particularly impressive. I don't see much reason to think Tyler Malley's, much more than a streamer in the long run. Quickly run through the rest of Monday's action here. It was a shorter slate, so there's not too much going on. But I wanted to mention James Wood, did you realize? He has the sixth highest ISO among qualified hitters this season.
Starting point is 00:49:57 And that's with barely hitting the ball to the pole side. Nine home runs, a 303 ISO. Pretty impressive. Yeah, he's a pretty bonkers talent. I don't know if he's ever going to fully actualize. It might not matter. Yeah, I mean, even with hitting the ball to the opposite field, 94.2 average exit velocity, 19% barrel rate for James Wood here,
Starting point is 00:50:23 which is pretty, pretty awesome. Byron Buxton, did you realize he is on pace for 34 homers and 34 steals? That would assume that Byron Buxton plays an entire season, which is not going to happen, but it's still an awesome pace. You know, it only has to happen one time. You only need to beat what's his name down Cherry Hill one time out of 100. And Byron Buxton probably won't do it. But what if he did?
Starting point is 00:50:54 You know what? For as long as he's healthy, he is crushing the ball right now. His last 15 games hitting 295, five homers, four steals, 95, 95, 5 homers, 4 steals, 957 OPS for Byron Bucson. Did you realize that Renel Blanco had a 363 expected ERA and a 13% swinging strike rate entering this start where he had 19 more swinging strike rates swinging strikes against the tigers
Starting point is 00:51:18 did not realize it I knew the underlying really care pretty good I mean it's mostly quality of contact which he wasn't great at last year I mean a 13% swinging strike rate is really good sure I guess the 13
Starting point is 00:51:36 but the actual strike out rate is very pedestrian Yeah. So I'm still very much fading, Renal Blanco, personally. Personally. What a weird start for Bailey Ober here at the Guardians. It's just been a weird season for him.
Starting point is 00:51:53 Seven and two-thirds innings, one run, two strikeouts, seven whiffs on 102 pitches. He allowed eight earned runs on opening day. In five starts since, he has a 210 ERA, a 110 whip, but only 22 strikeouts over 30 innings pitched. How do you guys feel about Bailey O'OX? over right now.
Starting point is 00:52:12 Yeah, a little confused. I'm just, I think we've seen enough from him over the years that I'm just keeping the faith, basically. Like, the swinging strike rate for him, I know it dropped with this start, but it had been
Starting point is 00:52:27 like an above-average swinging strike rate. It felt like the strikeouts themselves were what needed correction, what was due for regression, rather than, the rest of Bailey Ober's stat line. So if you want a reason to be encouraged,
Starting point is 00:52:45 I think that's the simplest way. The thing that's so weird about Bailey Ober is like, even in this small sample size, you do the take out the one worst start and he has the sub two ERA or whatever it is, his underlying peripherals still match very closely with the overall ERA. That's the weird thing.
Starting point is 00:53:08 It's not like the, ERA is inflated because of the bad starts. He just kind of earns the bad starts in a way that I don't know is always true. I don't know if I'm explaining the thought here correctly, but it just like he has a 420 something FIP to go with his 413 ERA. And like even if you remove that one, if you remove that one bad start, maybe the FIP goes way down. But it's weird that he just keeps. keeps pitching to his peripherals, and the peripherals are just worse this year.
Starting point is 00:53:46 Are you guys still comfortable calling Bailey Obera top 24 starting pitcher? I think it probably needs to be lower than top 24. A handful of guys have, I think, pretty solidly jumped ahead of him, Hunter Green, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, once he's past that hamstring. So I think it's hard to justify. Those are way up there. Like, what about the ones? I'm saying, but they probably were lower than over coming into the season. They've jumped him.
Starting point is 00:54:14 Well, I think the ones in contention here would be like Aaronola and Shane Baws and Jack Flaherty. Like, would you take any of those guys over over or all of those guys over over? I think I probably would. I think another interesting one is Joe Ryan versus Bailey Ober. Yeah, I have Joe Ryan ahead. I move for a Peralta ahead of him. Peralta's looked pretty good this season.
Starting point is 00:54:36 Yeah, I've had Peralta ahead of him. So that probably, if all of those guys are going ahead of over, then he's probably dropping out of the top 30. Yeah, I have 30. But I can't get much lower than that because then you're talking about Zach Allen and Seth Lugo. Nick Povetta is an interesting one. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:54 Yeah, Nick Povetta as well as McKenzie Gore and Jesus Lazzardo, basically the three big risers. Yeah, he's just as a good call. Max Meyer maybe. I don't know. I'm saying I don't think I'm ready to move over behind that. I think that's fair. Povetta's kind of doing
Starting point is 00:55:09 what we expect over to do. Some lineup notes I wanted to mention here Astro switched up their lineup on Monday and it worked. Jeremy Pena letoff followed by Jose Altuve, Yerdon Alvarez, Isok Paredes, Christian Walker and Jainer Diaz.
Starting point is 00:55:26 Jose Altuve 2 for 4 with his fourth homer and Christian Walker 1 for 4 with his fourth homer. Last nine games for Walker, 265, three home runs. Still a 31% strikeout rate during that stretch. How do you guys feel about Christian Walker now?
Starting point is 00:55:42 Do you, it's a little bit older? I just, I can't get the Jose Abray you thought out of my head with Christian Walker. I mean, I think that's not totally unfair, but not totally fair either. If he had signed with, I don't know, the Red Sox or something, it would be a different player we'd be comparing him to. I considered Christian Walker for the Bylow segment. I'm not really concerned. All right. So we talked about a little bit Gavin Williams early on in the podcast.
Starting point is 00:56:12 And just to read off the line here against the twins, two innings, seven hits, four runs, two walks, two strikeouts. And he's kind of alternated okay starts with bad ones. His last start out was much better against the Yankees. But it's a 514 ERA 157 whip. Walks are pretty high, 4.5 walks per nine, lots of hard contact as well for, uh, Gavin Williams. Chris, it sounds like you're more likely to drop him at this point, but what are we doing? Gavin Williams. I think it depends on the state of my team. If I really need a starter and there's a decent one out there, I feel like I don't trust Gavin Williams right now. And so if I can't trust someone to start and I need a starter because I'm dealing with a bunch of injuries, especially in a league with no aisle spots, I think I'd have to consider dropping Gavin Williams. And I feel like we, We had that conversation, and we have him in the team that we're managing together, right? Yep.
Starting point is 00:57:13 And we started him. Yep. Yeah. And like that's one where we've had a bunch of injuries. And it's a 12 team league with no IL spots. So I think in that kind of league, Gavin Williams is pretty fringy. Yeah. He is.
Starting point is 00:57:28 And I don't want, I don't want my reluctance to drop him to be like a statement of confidence in him. Yeah. Because it's not there. It's just a bet, a wish. Most of the time, unless I have a specific hole in my lineup, or I'm just looking to stash upside, I'm pretty much not paying attention to hitters on the waiver wire. It's more, I always need more pitchers.
Starting point is 00:57:54 And like that's, I'm not seeing a lot to get excited about there. So it's like, well, maybe something magical will happen for Gavin Williams, this former top prospect who looked good as a rookie two years ago and a lot of very smart pitcher analysts smarter than me believed in him coming into this season. I came around in spring training. I was hyping him pretty hard at that point and the things I was liking about him
Starting point is 00:58:19 then have not carried over to the regular season. So that's why my confidence is very low. But I'm invested in him now and it would take something pretty exciting, I think, to just forfeit that. And look, it doesn't have to be a pitcher. Maybe it's a shallow league and you've been looking for an excuse to pick up Augustine Ramirez.
Starting point is 00:58:45 If you want to drop Williams for him and your pitching situation is fine, that, sure, go ahead. Like, I'm not, I'm totally fine with you dropping Gavin Williams. I'm just saying, me personally, it would have to be for something that where I see genuine upside and not just, this is the best guy I can pick up.
Starting point is 00:59:03 so I guess I'll pick him up. It's not Tomoyuki Sagano. You know, like I, I'm not dropping Gavin Williams for him. And that's, again, not a statement on of confidence in Gavin Williams. It's just I'm chasing upside there. Yeah. Yep. Two Tigers leftovers here.
Starting point is 00:59:21 Riley Green slowly picking things up two for four with a double dong, three RBI, both to the opposite field in Houston as a left-handed batter. So that'll definitely work with the Crawford boxes there. last 11 games for Green at 279, three homers, 11 RBI. Just a 17% strikeout rate. Strikeouts were a huge issue early on. And Jack Flarity got tagged for two home runs at the Astros. Five plus innings, four runs, four strikeouts here.
Starting point is 00:59:47 He was cruising until the sixth inning, gave up another home run and kind of messed up the line here. But anything to add on Riley Green or Jack Flerty? Nope. No? I mean, Green strikeout rate has been high. his ground ball rate has been high, but that's kind of always true. He's due for some correction,
Starting point is 01:00:07 and maybe this is the start of it. Jack Flaherty, the underlying numbers, I actually look even better than the overlying ones, which have looked pretty good. I know this start wasn't great. The biggest concern for me with Flaherty
Starting point is 01:00:19 is he's had only one six-inning start, and that kind of explains as one-and-three record with as well as he's pitched. So I'd like to see him start working deeper into games. He's going to need two, to live up to where we rank him, even if he's good. All right, the call to the bullpen for the Yankees. Devin Williams entered in the eighth inning with the Yankees down one at the time.
Starting point is 01:00:40 And it was a perfect inning, one strikeout, nine of 14 pitches for strike. So nice first outing here for Devin Williams. For the Orioles, Felix Bautista got the ninth with a one-run lead. He struck out two for his fourth save. For the Reds, Emilio Pagan, got the ninth inning with a two-run lead, picked up his eighth save. And I know, you know, we're skeptical of Emilio Pagan, but. he's got eight saves, 55% rostered. That number feels kind of low.
Starting point is 01:01:05 What do you guys think? Well, I mean, kind of what I said about closers yesterday, like the sample's always small and the leash is always short. So to a certain extent, it doesn't pay to think too hard about it. You just kind of accept what you're getting in the moment and then move on when the time comes to move on. I think it's likely or than not with Begon. You're going to have to move on at some point this year.
Starting point is 01:01:30 But, you know, I picked them up in a couple of leagues where I needed saves early on, and I've gotten a nice bundle of saves from them. So should I have not picked them up? It's hard to say that when I've gotten this nice bundle of saves. But at the same time, very Homer prone in a Homer-friendly ballpark. And I would imagine that's going to catch up to him at some point. It may be 25 saves into the season before it happens. Or it may be, he may just have two more saves left.
Starting point is 01:01:58 There's no way of knowing. For the Astros, Josh Hader struck out two for his eighth save. For the athletics, Mason Miller allowed a walk but picked up his ninth save. And for the Braves, Rysel Iglesias allowed a hit, but picked up his fifth save of the season. I did want to quickly mention that late game, Anthony Bender pitched in the seventh. It was Jesus Tenoco in the eighth, Calvin Foshe, in the ninth against the Dodgers. And then they wound up losing in extras because it was Ronnie Enriquez, who was on the mound. And on the other side for the Dodgers.
Starting point is 01:02:29 Tanner Scott pitched in the ninth. Kirby Yates pitched in the 10th and wound up with the win in that game. To stream or not to stream on Tuesday, the best names, and I say best, kind of loosely here, but Andrew Heaney, home against the Cubs, Eduardo Rodriguez at the Mets, and Ryan Gusto, home against the Tigers. I like that I've won you guys over to how awful this process is, how much how unfun it is to do this segment. There are people that agree with you.
Starting point is 01:03:01 Rodriguez. I understand people want to hear it, just like people want a streamer pitchers article. But that doesn't make the process any more rewarding or fun. It's just given the people
Starting point is 01:03:17 what they want. And even if it means we go kicking and screaming into it. So you said Eduardo Rodriguez at the Mets, Chris. That's your preferred choice. Yes.
Starting point is 01:03:28 You know, I don't like Heaney and don't trust him, but honestly, if I had to choose between these six pitchers you've written down, he'd probably be the one I chose. On Wednesday, we have Tony Gonslin making his season debut against the Marlins. Tyler Anderson is at the Mariners, Landon Rup at the Padres, Matthew Boyd at the Pirates, Andrew Abbott home against the Cardinals, Lucas Gilito's season debut at the Blue Jays, Tobias Myers at the White Sox, Shane Smith, home against the Brewers, and Luis Severino at the Rangers. So some decent options on Wednesday.
Starting point is 01:04:01 Sure. I could see Gonsland having a good start, but I wouldn't want to start him in the first one. Tyler Anderson at Seattle. I mean, I know it's at Seattle, but the Mariners offense actually has the highest WRC plus in the majors since the start of August of last season. Amazingly, I think since they fired their batting coach. I saw they are third in Wobah against right-handed pitching this season but they're middle of the pack against lefties which Tyler Anderson is
Starting point is 01:04:32 gosh I think Tobias Myers at the White Sox that's the one I have and that's the one I put in the Sleeper Pitchers article for this week. And then I could see Louise Severino at Texas and Andrew Abbott versus Seattle being okay I like Matthew Boyd at the Pirates Okay
Starting point is 01:04:50 Yeah sure I don't I don't think Matthew Boyd is good, but the pirates are bad, so it could work out. Yeah. All right, we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy at Baseball today.
Starting point is 01:05:04 Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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