Fantasy Baseball Today - Breakouts 2.0! League Winners in 2026 Drafts! (3/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

Before we get to the breakouts, Jurickson Profar is suspended for 162 games (2:32)! ... First up in Breakouts 2.0 is Nick Lodolo (6:56). ... Chris is buying in on Wyatt Langford (10:18). ... The Astro...s are looking to work their magic on Mike Burrows (19:30). ... Who are the rest of Chris' breakouts 2.0 for 2026 (22:40)? ... Scott is in on Eury Perez, Gabriel Moreno, JJ Wetherholt, Andrew Painter and Drake Baldwin (30:10). ... Frank likes Edward Cabrera, Jonathan Aranda and Griffin Jax to take the next step (44:20). ... Let's take a look at Scott's Tout Wars Expert draft (52:28)! ... We wrap up by circling back to Breakouts 1.0 (1:12:07). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, watching. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:00:27 March 4th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we have Breakouts 2.0. We'll take a look back at Breakouts 1.0 as well, let you know what has changed since then. Plus, Scott just wrapped up his Tout Wars draft. We'll break down his team a little bit later on, see how he did.
Starting point is 00:00:47 Scott, in 10 seconds or less, how do you feel about the team? Okay. Surprisingly, even keeled about it. All right, I like that. Something I know that you won't like, Scott. Breaking news that we had today. Jerks and ProFar from your Atlanta Braves is facing a 162 game suspension
Starting point is 00:01:07 after testing positive for a PED for a second time. The Players Association plans to challenge the suspension but I do not believe that that will be successful. So not many great options currently on the roster for the Braves D.H spot but I think long term once Sean Murphy returns, I think this is great news for both him and Drake Baldwin.
Starting point is 00:01:30 So I guess Glass, half full for those guys, but if anyone drafted early and you have Jerks and ProFar, I'm sorry. Yeah, I'm thankful that, that's the, that's the, that's an odd first thing to come out of my mouth. I'm thankful. I'm thankful that it happened
Starting point is 00:01:45 before the Tout Wars draft, because that being an OBP league, I probably would have prioritized a high OBP player like Jerks and ProFar, but now I mean the analysis here's pretty easy. Take them off your draft boards. Entirely, yeah. Entirely. He's not, I suppose there is that slim chance of suspension takes, but it's very slim. How many times has a player successfully challenged a PED suspension?
Starting point is 00:02:14 I think one, right? I think it's one, and it was Ryan Braun. And I don't know if you guys remember the details. The details on that are wild and did not make Ryan Braun look great once it all came to light. I saw some speculation that, like, Profar might try to argue that it was. was like the same drug and that that it it he shouldn't be penalized for it was basically he cheated once but it was still in his system seems pretty unlikely given the I don't know how long uh anything stays in your blood frankly but uh like 11 months seems like a really long time so um I I think
Starting point is 00:02:55 he's probably suspended I think that's the likeliest outcome now what what is interesting about this. And I don't know that it's so interesting from a fantasy standpoint, but just to have more interesting things to say is this freeze up $15 million for the Braves. They don't have to pay pro far for the time he's suspended. Lucas Geelito, come on down. Although he can't DH, but yeah, maybe. And you mentioned, you know, eventually maybe Sean Murphy's the big winner for fantasy by absorbing most of those DH at bats. As teams have to cut down their roster, toward the end of spring training. There are going to be,
Starting point is 00:03:33 I think there are going to be some hitters on the bar. The good thing about losing a DH is you could get a player at any position to plug in there. I'm looking at the Orioles with Ryan Malkassel. Yeah, I think Ryan Mousal is the most obvious one. Of course, Esoc Peridus has been the most rumored trade possibility, and I think that's a possibility for the Braves, though I suspect he'll demand a pretty good package.
Starting point is 00:03:54 Those Orioles guys I mentioned probably won it. They'd probably be happy to free up the roster spot. And the Orioles aren't. the only team in that situation, especially when it comes to light corner infielder. So the replacement for ProFAR may well not be on the roster yet, and it may be if someone, it may be someone who's of minor interest in fantasy. So something to keep an eye on. If you forced me to guess today, who's the Braves DH on opening day? I would say Dominic Smith, which isn't very interesting. But I don't actually think it's going to be Dominic Smith.
Starting point is 00:04:25 Yeah, that is who is pencilled in right now on roster resource as the Braves'DH. I thought maybe if Jorge Mateo played a little bit, like he's got speed, maybe he can matter in the deepest of rhodo leagues and category leagues, but let's aim a little higher. Yeah, I think we should all try and do that. Let's hope for more than Dominic Smith and Maricio DuBon and Jorge
Starting point is 00:04:48 Mateo. Dubon's already in the lineup, but short's not an ideal first three weeks of spring training for your Atlanta Braves. This is a team that I think, I don't think this is just me, tainted by fanship here. I think most around the industry would say this team was kind of snake bitten last year. It's not, it looks like the snakes are still biting. Yes. So again, the big news here, Jerks and ProFar facing a 162 game suspension after testing positive for a PED for a second time.
Starting point is 00:05:25 Let's get into our breakout 2.0. and Scott, we will start with you. Favorite name that you added to Breakouts 2.0. Who was it? It's Nick La Dolo probably. And I know we've talked about him a fair amount. I think you had him in your breakouts 1.0, Frank. But not everybody listened to that.
Starting point is 00:05:45 And, you know, doesn't hurt to reinforce the idea. I am on board with Nick Lodolo. And the reason I wasn't at first is because, okay, he stayed fairly healthy last season for the first time, 333 ER. RA 108 whip, but the strikeout rate fell. Barely had a strikeout per inning. In fact, didn't quite have a strikeout per inning.
Starting point is 00:06:07 The ground ball rate fell. By those indicators, it looked like Lodolo overachieved, 333 ERA 108 whip. He's tricking you. He's not that good. He's actually losing what made him most interesting. Except, and this is what changed my mind, you look at what happened over his final 12 appearances. Strikeout rate, K-per-9 rate, went to 10.3 during that time.
Starting point is 00:06:36 Started throwing his curveball more. That's obviously his best pitch. Great whiff rate on that. 10.3K-per-9 in those 12 appearances. But even more notable, this was the biggest eye-opener for me, the swinging strike rate in those 12 starts went to 15.7%. as compared to 10.4% previously. So we're talking opposite ends of the spectrum
Starting point is 00:07:01 in terms of how much swing and miss Lodolo was generating. Only one pitcher with a minimum of 100 innings eclipsed to 15.7% swinging strike rate last year, and it was Terek Scoobel. So just looking at the full extent of Lodolo's career, the first half where the strike rate, out numbers were not very good.
Starting point is 00:07:25 That's the exception. That's the outlier. The second half was more in line with previous versions of Lodolo we saw, and it was the most recent version of Lodolo we saw. So I think it's legit. And then you look at what else he did last year with the walk rate. What's like 1.7 walks per 9? 1.8.
Starting point is 00:07:45 That's 95th percentile. Yeah, I think there's a lot to like here for Nick Lodello. I don't think it's a stretch to say he could emerge. as an ace this year. That is music to my ear, Scott. You know, he was the pitcher that I loved on Valentine's Day in his NFBC ADP over the past two weeks. Again, this is Nick Ledullo we're talking about, is 132. He's going behind Jacob Mizzerowski, Tyler Glassnow, Emmett Sheehan, Zach Wheeler, Kevin Gosman, Spencer Strider. I would take him ahead of all those pictures, personally. But I haven't ranked SP 26, so I'm pretty aggressive. Let them off again real quick.
Starting point is 00:08:22 It is Miziarowski, Glassnow, Sheen, Wheeler, Kevin Gosman, Spencer Strider. I think I have Glass Now ranked ahead, but it's been happening in drafts that Glass Now is my top pitcher available, and I'm just like, I don't think so, for like a couple rounds. So maybe I need to drop him behind Lodolo. Yep. All right, Chris, let's go over to you. Your favorite name from Breakout 2.0. I kind of surprised myself with this one, but I think it's Wyatt Langford, who, Yeah.
Starting point is 00:08:53 I was kind of fully expecting to clown on the fantasy community for overrating Wyatt Langford for the third straight draft season. And then when I actually looked into his 2025, we're going to clown on you, Chris. I kind of love him. I like basically the argument in favor of clowning on the Langford Believers is this guy was supposed to be a superstar. And instead, the best we've seen of him is like, Randy a Roseraina. Like, Rosa Raina was better last season, but you account for the missed time.
Starting point is 00:09:35 It's very, very close between the two of them. And like, there's nothing wrong with Randy or Roserana, but that's not a top 50 pick. Randy a Rosalina goes, I don't know, 30 picks, 40 picks later than Wyatt Langford. So when you look at it from that perspective, why Langford is being overdrafted. But this is one where I think the context is really, important because he had the oblique injury last February. He gets into like 12 games in
Starting point is 00:10:00 spring training. He gets like 27 play appearances or something. So he's ready for the season. And then like 10 days into the season, he has another oblique injury. Comes back, has another oblique injury. Later in the season, guess what? A fourth oblique injury. Obligue injuries are like by far the trickiest thing for hitters because it's all rotation. It's all hitting is all in the trunk, folks. It's the trunk what we refer to as the midsection. The midsection. It's the trunk of the human body.
Starting point is 00:10:33 And it's really hard to hit when your oblique's not healthy. I don't know if Wyatt Langford's oblique was ever healthy. And he went 22 and 22 in 134 games with really good quality of contact metrics. He underperforms his expected Wobah, but 11 points, nine points, excuse me. 48% hard hit rate, 91.4 mile per hour average exit velocity. Yeah, the strikeout rate's a little high. It was lower as a rookie season. I just look at it all and I say, man, if the floor for Wyatt Langford,
Starting point is 00:11:07 when he's beat up with like one of the worst injuries a hitter can try to play through, is Randy a Rosarena, I think that guy might be just a star if he's healthy. I think Wyatt Langford's healthy floor is 25, 25. Yep. and that might not be giving him enough credit, 3030 is well within the realm of possibility for White Lankford if he stays healthy this season. I still think I'm more excited about White Lankford right now
Starting point is 00:11:35 than I have been at any previous point in his career. I think what he did last year with the degree of difficulty was so impressive and I'm not sure, even with a very healthy price. I think he's like 44 in ADP. I still think there's a ton of room. profit on that one. I think there's a decent chance we're talking about White Lankford as a top 20 player next year. I'm not disputing the 25-25. I mean, he went 22-22, even missing time last
Starting point is 00:12:03 year. It's just the batting average that, I mean, 25-25 with the 240 batting average is basically Randy or Rosarena from a five-by-five context. And maybe it's a floor versus ceiling thing, like Wyatt has the ceiling, White-Langford first-name basis. White Lankford has the ceiling beyond that. maybe that's what you're saying well I think he's likely to improve on the strikeout rate from last year it was 20% as a rookie it was 26% last season under the hood nothing really stands out as that alarming
Starting point is 00:12:34 he has good plate he has good plate discipline I think he makes good swing decisions he doesn't swing and miss as much as you would think for someone who had a 26% strikeout rate 83% zone contact rate he doesn't chase very much I just I think the batting average skills here are healthier than 240. I think it's probably more like 260. And again, I think the ceiling outcomes for Wyatt Langford could get really bonkers with the skills he's shown given.
Starting point is 00:13:06 I think it's also worth noting he played 42 games as a professional before making his Major League debut, I believe. He played through all the interest. We've been asking an awful lot of Wyatt Langford through his two seasons. and he's been disappointing for a top 50 price, but he's still been a very good fantasy option. I think he's going to be great this year. Yeah, and all the projection systems have him for between a 250 and 259 batting average. So that expectation is 250 to 260, 25, 25.
Starting point is 00:13:38 That's my kind of median expectation coming into the season. And then there's just a chance. I don't know how much higher the batting average could get, but if the power and speed really takes off, We could be looking at like a 260, 30-30 guy this season with Wyatt Langford. The ADP, as you mentioned, the past two weeks is 44 for Wyatt Langford. He's going just ahead of Brent Rooker, Roman Anthony, Jaron, Duran, Merrill. I assume you agree with all that.
Starting point is 00:14:05 Maybe not Merrill. I know you like him a lot, Chris. I actually do have Langford ahead of Merrill. I have him ahead of Roman Anthony. Who are some of the others? Just ahead of Rooker, Roman Anthony, Duran, Merrill, Buxon. Yeah, I have him ahead of all of those guys. The next name ahead of him is...
Starting point is 00:14:21 I do too for what it's worth. The next name ahead of him, well, the two, they are always kind of tied together as James Wood and PCA, but I don't think any of us are putting Lankford that high, right? No, but I think the median outcomes are pretty similar. I think the high-end outcomes are pretty similar. Maybe just because we've seen the higher-end outcome for PCA in particular as a five-category guy.
Starting point is 00:14:45 but I think both James Wood and PCA have the lower floor than Wyatt Langford. I think Wyatt Langford's floor is actually pretty safe relative to those two guys. All right, we'll get to my favorite from Breakout 2.0 in just a bit before we hit the break. I want to remind people that we will have a live head to head points mock draft on Wednesday night.
Starting point is 00:15:06 Scott, 9 p.m. Eastern Time. I meant to ask you before and I didn't. I can't remember. I think it's 9.30. 9.30. 9 or 930. I'll tell you after the break. All right. I'll double check. All righty.
Starting point is 00:15:20 So again, you want to come watch a live mock draft. We'll be doing that tomorrow or today when you're listening to this. 9.30. 9.30 p.m. Eastern time. Be there. Also, like this video. Subscribe to the channel. If you haven't already, we are closing in on 35K, trying to get to 40K by opening day.
Starting point is 00:15:38 It is a very lofty goal. I think something crazy would have to happen for us to meet that goal. But you know what? We'll try. That's all we can do. Let's take our first break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are talking breakouts 2.0. And Scott, you stole one of my names, Nicodolo. I'm stealing one of yours. That is Mike Burroughs from the Houston Astros. Actually, I just think we're probably just both in our hand. I added him to 2.0, too. Yeah, here we go. So he was solid with the Pirates last season.
Starting point is 00:16:08 What stands out over a K per inning, 12% swinging strike rate. That is a very healthy number there for my Burroughs. He already has a ridiculous change up last year, 219 X Wobah, 43% whiff rate on that pitch. And I love the landing spot. Getting to the Houston Astros, they're really smart with pitchers. They usually find a way to get the best out of those guys. And they actively targeted him. They wanted to bring Mike Burroughs in. So if they're excited about him, I'm excited about him. He's already made some changes this spring. His slider was up over three miles per hour in his first spring start. had two of his seven swinging strikes. And then the slider was up about two miles per hour.
Starting point is 00:16:49 And his second start also had two of his five swinging strikes in that one. He's also throwing his sinker more so far this spring, which feels like a smart decision moving away from his four-seem fastball. That pitch got hit really hard last year. So this is a deeper name. NFBC ADP over the last two weeks is 290. He's going behind Bailey Ober, Joey Cantillo, Sean Maniah, Cody Ponce, Quinn Priester.
Starting point is 00:17:14 I like some of those names like Mania, Ponce, Cantillo. I have some level of interest in, but I would take Mike Burroughs ahead of all of them. I probably would take him closer like the 250 range rather than the 290 where he's going right now. Scott, would you like to add on on Mike Burroughs? Yeah, I just think the Astros as an organization have shown an ability to maximize the outcomes of pitchers to tweak their arsenal in a way. that brings the best out of them. Garrett Cole's the most famous example, who they also acquired from the Pirates.
Starting point is 00:17:50 It was a long time ago, and some of the organization has changed since then, both organizations, but still, I like what I'm hearing. I mean, Burroughs numbers just at face value from a first-year player were pretty interesting. 394, URA, 124 whip,
Starting point is 00:18:05 just over a strikeout per inning. And if they think that bringing in this, this two-seem fastball, which he has been throwing a lot this spring, is going to help him have better success against same-handed pitchers, then, yeah, it's hard not to buy into that for the price for Mike Burroughs. All right, let's continue on with some more breakouts 2.0, and Chris will go over to you. You have a...
Starting point is 00:18:30 Let me mention it was a similar adjustment. This is part of the reason why I like Mike Burroughs, too. They made that same sort of adjustment for Hunter Brown. Mm-hmm. Against right-handed pitchers, right-handed hitters, more of the two seamer. That's about the time Hunter Brown took off. So there's kind of some...
Starting point is 00:18:47 That's what we're seeing in spring so far from Burroughs. Yep. You didn't already say that, did you? No, I said he's throwing his sinker more, but I didn't say specifically against right-handed batters. Hunter Brown, baby. Thank you for listening, Scott, while I was talking about spreading my love for Mike Burroughs.
Starting point is 00:19:02 I was trying to figure out who I was going to talk about next. Sorry. All right, well, we'll give you a little bit more time to figure it out. Chris, we'll go over to you. You have a bunch of names here. Who are something you would like to highlight? Yeah, I kind of went with a clean sweep of new names for the most part. Just because when I did sleeper breakouts 1.0, I did kind of like some bounce back candidates.
Starting point is 00:19:22 And I feel like that's all cheating. Like, Your Honor Alvarez. And like, yeah, I believe in them. The re-breakout. Yeah, it doesn't feel like it fits the spirit of the discussion. So, yes, I still like Yoran Alvarez. The rest of them are all guys we've talked a ton about lately. So I don't know if we need to go in-depth on any of them.
Starting point is 00:19:40 Jack Kegg Leone. listen to Tuesday's episode of fantasy baseball today for a ton of discussion about why we all like Jack Cagleone a ton. I will point out, just to add a little color to this, Jack Caglione went the highest I've seen him go in the Tout Wars draft I just completed.
Starting point is 00:20:01 Thought I'd have the number ready for you. So it was the 10th pick of round 10, which is, let's see. Yeah, that is early. Is 150 or 145. 145, yeah. 14. Yeah, that's early.
Starting point is 00:20:16 But I think I have him like 160 or something right now. So it's not. The ADP the past two weeks is like 195. So 50 picks ahead. It's going to keep rising. People are getting excited. Just to like actually make the point very quickly, premium athlete, high degree prospect, plus plus power, probably 70 grade power at least, maybe 80.
Starting point is 00:20:38 He's really, really good. he hit a baseball 120 miles an hour the other day. That is bonkers stuff. We've talked a ton about Kyle Braddish, probably within the last three or four episodes as well. But I think the breakout already happened. And it happened in 2024, actually, when his strikeout rate spiked to 32%.
Starting point is 00:20:59 Last year, coming back from Tommy John's surgery, it was 37%. Throw those two seasons together. I think you get 100 strikeouts in like 70 innings or something bonkers for Kyle Braddish. So you could legitimately be looking at a 200 strikeout season with 150 or 160 innings. So even the innings limits for Braddish don't concern me all that much. I also just don't really think it's going to be it's not going to be 140 innings. It might be 160 or 170. But hey, 160 is the new 180, right? You can be a top 15 pitcher with 160 innings. Roman Anthony kind of goes without saying
Starting point is 00:21:37 Elite prospect Just a question of whether he tweaks the swing He hit a bomb today That home run was amazing Yeah It was one of those ones that was like It was like only 390 feet or something But he hit it 18 miles high
Starting point is 00:21:51 But it looked really nice Yeah Yeah it was to the pole side So you know it looks longer than it is Ivan Herrera That's one that even if he's just DH only Which I think he's gonna make his first appearance At Catcher tomorrow
Starting point is 00:22:04 today this week sometime but even if he's dh only i think ivan herr is good enough to be fantasy relevant as a dh only player he might be a i think his pace last year was 28 homers with a 285 batting average he's really good francisco alvarez uh had a 940 ops after coming back from triple a last season i think the breakout happened for him francisco alvarez is younger than drake baldwin i believe he is younger than augustine ramirez and he's like maybe a couple of months older than Kyle Teal. Just for some context, because Francis Gravarez is entering his fifth major league season, he's still really young.
Starting point is 00:22:45 There's still room to grow for him. Mackenzie Gore, Scott, I know you hate him, but McKenzie Gore was one of 13 players, 13 pitchers last season with an above average whiff rate on four different pitches. He missed out on being the only one with five by like. 0.7 percentage points on his four-seem fastball. And I think that was just like he faded down the stretch. He's got phenomenal stuff. It's a big park upgrade.
Starting point is 00:23:15 I think the Rangers can ring more out of him than the Nationals. I think McKenzie Gore is going to be very good. Big defensive upgrade too there. Defensive upgrade as well. Yeah, I mean, just the surrounding context of Washington versus Texas is so much better this season for McKenzie. Gore. So even if he's just the same guy, I think he'll be better. Luke Kishel, I think he's a 40 steel guy. I think he's like a 280 batting average guy. I think he's at least a 10 homer, maybe 15 homer guy. And he's going to hit lead off.
Starting point is 00:23:49 So I think we could get some like Trey Turner-ask outcomes out of Luke Kishel. Probably not as much batting average, but still a good batting average. Ozzy Albies This is the one that's more of the re-breakout But I think people need to be reminded of One, how good Ozzy Albies has been When he's been healthy over the past few years And two, how fluky the injuries
Starting point is 00:24:16 He's had have been over the past five seasons It's six IL trips Five of them have been for a broken bone of some sort I think it was a foot A finger A wrist a hand And one other one, there's a bunch of bones, I don't know, like 50 bones in the human body or something. Who knows?
Starting point is 00:24:37 Everybody's different. So the thing is... I don't know about it in that way. We just, there's no way of knowing how many bones Ozzy Albies has. It's medical science hasn't caught up to that. Ozzy Albies, sorry. I just don't think broken bones are like a signal. I don't think they tell us anything about how likely a player is to...
Starting point is 00:24:59 to get hurt moving forward, unless he's got like some kind of unknown calcium deficiency or, I don't know, avian bone syndrome. Maybe he goes swimming with those fish too much. His bones are soggy. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, something like that. It's possible. Maybe he's got waterlogged bones.
Starting point is 00:25:16 But barring something like that, I think Ozia Albies is more likely to stay healthy this season than your typical injury prone quote unquote player. After the Allster Break last year, he was basically a 24. 520 guy. I think he's just going to bounce back and be really good. And then Ryan Pepio, his whiff rate on his four-scene fastball dropped from 31% in 2024 to 25% in 2025. I think that's mostly Tropicana Field. I think once he gets that whiff rate back up with the other growth that he's made with the rest of his arsenal, I think we're going to see a big step forward for Ryan Pepio. I'm expecting a sub-350 ERA, and I think he's going to push for 200
Starting point is 00:25:56 strikeouts this season. I love it. Yeah. We are the pep boys, Chris. Yeah, pep boys. I was surprised. Do everything for less. Yeah, that is Ryan Pepio. Getting an ace for less. He, surprisingly, the workload was really good for him last year, too.
Starting point is 00:26:12 I think he went six plus innings in like 17 of 30 starts. And that was just more than I expected. He's the ace there. Like, as far as that goes, I think he's one of the few Tampa Bay pitchers who is not going to get that, that, like, Jurassic Mason treatment. I think you can count on him if he pitches well to go deep. All right, let's go over to Scott, Breakouts 2.0. Who else do we have here?
Starting point is 00:26:38 I mean, what I'm noticing with these 2.0s is... A lot of overlap. Just even more mind-melding. We've just all talked to each other into the same players over the position previews. I mean, it's more interesting the ones we don't have in common, like from Chris's list. You know, I'm kind of combining sleepers and breakers. breakouts here because the distinction is often thin and sometimes guy will be on one of will be defined one way for one of us and another but overall we just have a positive feeling
Starting point is 00:27:07 about him I was just listening to the names Chris rattled off and I think the only ones I don't have in common on one of those lists are McKenzie Gore and and Ryan Pepio I'm not oh yeah Francis Gavros oh no that yeah because I haven't heard you talk about I yeah I just I guess I lost over that one there's a lot of catchers he's so high end but anyway you want some names for me I think the ones I'm going to give you are shared by some of you
Starting point is 00:27:36 let's start with Yuri Perez Yuri Perez you know I've talked a lot about Kyle Bradish Chris mentioned it too and I've talked about how Kyle Bradish is when I go the thrifty route at starting
Starting point is 00:27:53 pitcher I'm targeting him as an ace I think if I miss out on Kyle Bradish and I'm going to thrifty route at pitcher, I think Uri Perez could fit that description as well because I think if I almost think we'd be higher on him like the drafters would be higher on him
Starting point is 00:28:12 if he hadn't come back from Tommy John surgery because remember where he left off in 2020, before he needing Tommy John surgery the following spring. 2023 is a rookie. Yuri Perez had a 315 ERA 113-1-13 whip 10.7K per 9 and 19 starts. It was universally understood this is an emerging ace. And I have a very exciting pick and fantasy that year. That's why it was so devastating when he needed the Tommy John surgery before the season even started. He comes back last year. Looks great. Looks just like that at first,
Starting point is 00:28:45 and then hits the first rough patch of his career. And it brought his ERA to 425 for the season. but it seems like the issues he was dealing with was command. It was a very common problem coming back from Tommy John's surgery. And he made a mechanical adjustment, very slight one, but a lot of times a slight one is all it takes. Down the stretch changed the way he positioned his hands and his wind up. And over his final four starts, he had a swinging strike rate of 16.1%, which, you know, I was up there with Terrick Scoobbles. ERA during that stretch was 270.
Starting point is 00:29:27 His FIP was 109. He was, they were four of the most ace-like starts you're going to see from a pitcher. And they're more in line with what we had seen from Yuri Perez previously. So I think it was just a little hiccup there mid-season, first year back for major surgery. You know, look at his arsenal, still full of pitches with crazy whiff rates. I think this is going to, this is the year Yuri Perez is going to emerge as that ace. And look, the price tag is not. crazy low or anything, but it's less than you'd pay for an ace.
Starting point is 00:29:58 And so I think Uri Perez is going to outperform it. Also like Gabriel Moreno as a breakout, who Frank, I think you had in 1.0. I thought about it and just ran out of room. Thought I said I'd save him for 2.0. Here he is, Gabriel Moreno. He's always had an interesting skill set, former top prospect, great on base skills, good batting eye in general, makes him a great points league play. You just don't need as many catchers in points leagues, so that's a shame.
Starting point is 00:30:21 but, you know, there's a lot to like there from Gabriel Moraine to begin with. The biggest problem for him is didn't elevate the ball. And so that made it so he couldn't convert his exit velocities into home runs. So it was a little bit limited for fantasy. Well, that changed at the end of last year. He was coming back. I think he was coming back from injury at the time. I can't not sure what injury was.
Starting point is 00:30:48 It was a hand injury? Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that's right. fracture in his hand. So he comes back, fractured finger, August 22nd, and his flyball rate spikes during that time. He has the most productive stretch of his career, 311 batting average, four homers, and 862 OPS in those 30 games. It seemed like a conscious choice, given the timing of it, coming out for a long injury layoff. It seems like Gabriel Moreno finally cleared that hurdle
Starting point is 00:31:23 that will allow him to tap into power. And he doesn't need much with everything else he's good at, just a 15 to 20 homer outcome from him makes them look a lot like William Contreras. And, you know, there are so many of these breakout candidates, sleeper candidates that catcher can get lost in the shuffle. I think a two catcher leagues you need to make them high priority, particularly the OPP leagues.
Starting point is 00:31:45 JJ Weatherhalt I've added to Breakouts 2.0. We talked about him a lot yesterday because I think Chris added him to sleepers. But yeah, he is my favorite rookie hitter to target. I would target Connor Griffin over him just because the upside is there. But Weatherholt, I think, is a slam dunk to make the team. He's going to pick up second base eligibility, maybe third base eligibility too, and deliver five category production with premium on base skills too, I think. So even in points leagues like Weatherholt a lot, we talked about.
Starting point is 00:32:19 I just, I mentioned it yesterday, but I want to follow up because Kevin McGonigle hit a bomb today. And I think people might be sleeping on his chances for making the roster because it's like, yeah, it's basically they need to decide, is Kevin McGonigle ready or do we want to go into our last season with Terrick Scouble with Zach McIntrya shortstop? and it kind of feels like it's just going to be Kevin McGonigle. Yeah, it's hard, man. I really wanted to take Kevin McGonagel in Tout Wars tonight, and we'll get into that later. But I had already taken Connor Griffin, and it's like how many.
Starting point is 00:32:59 Yeah, it's hard to do both, yeah. I was like, oh, Scott's in the Tout Wars Dynasty League. I forgot about that. And even so, I ended up taking way too many rookies, but we'll get into that later. Another rookie who I like Andrew Painter. Now, this is interesting because I wrote this before he had made his first spring start.
Starting point is 00:33:14 And of course, it's a tiny sample, so I don't want to draw too much from it. But I didn't see in that spring start what we were expecting to see based on the reports. It was a little underwhelming. Keep an open mind. I think just from the perspective that Andrew Painter seems like an obvious lock for the Phillies rotation, with Zach Wheeler dealing with his issues, they don't really have an alternative.
Starting point is 00:33:37 Taiwan, an alternative. Taiwan Walker's already in himself. So where else are they going to go if they don't give it to pay? painter. Supposedly, reportedly, Painter regained the arm slot that he lost coming back from Tommy John's surgery, as often happens with injuries, the arm slot sags. And in Painter's case, it caused him a lot of command. It made his fastball less dominant overall. And that led to a 526 ERA, AAA. Everyone was expecting him up midseason. He never came up. But the scouting reports remained firm, trust the process. This is still an elite pitching prospect.
Starting point is 00:34:18 And like I said, the reports were sounded good in Philly's camp. I don't know that we, I don't know that his performance in that tiny sample necessarily backed it up, but I would say the jury's still out on Painter and just upside relative expectations for his role. I think it's fair to call him a breakout candidate. Also, just looking at an MOB.com story by Todd Zalakey after his start, quote, he showed why he will be in the Phillies rotation come opening day. It doesn't seem like there's a lot of doubt about Painter's role. I have some questions about how good he's
Starting point is 00:34:54 going to be. The stuff didn't look quite as good, but he also threw like 13 out of 20 fastballs, so we couldn't really see the rest of the arsenal. But the opportunity is going to be there for sure. I think Painter's a very good value. And whatever we saw on that first start, pitching coach, the Phillies pitching coach said he looks significantly different than this time last year. So what they're seeing behind the scenes is a noticeable change for Andrew Painter. I think targeting him late makes a lot of sense. We talked about Jordan Lawler on sleepers.
Starting point is 00:35:29 I considered him for breakouts 2.0. I strongly consider Drake Baldwin because I don't think, I don't think ADP has adjusted. enough for the revelation that Sean Murphy's missing at least a quarter of the season. Because that was what suppressed Drake Baldwin's draft stock early on going back to the offseason. Why among all these young upside-y catchers, why Drake Baldwin was ranked modestly, because there were clearer playing time concerns than for most of them. There aren't, at least for the first quarter of the season. And by that point, Baldwin, I mean, now the Braves don't have a DH.
Starting point is 00:36:11 So it makes it even more likely that Baldwin will have established himself as a true everyday catcher. And the hitting profile here is just so enticing. I can't say much negative about it. Maybe he could elevate the ball better. But in terms of how disciplined he is, the line drives he hits, the way he's built for both power and speed. I'm sorry, not speed. The way he's built for both batting average and power with terrific plate discipline on top of it. Like, Drake Baldwin is the real deal just as a hitter, and he happens to play catcher.
Starting point is 00:36:49 So I think just the extra volume he's going to get this year, we're going to look back and say, we should have invested more in this guy. The one concern I have with Gabriamor Moreno and the reason I can't quite get on board, I know you guys both like him a lot is he started elevating the ball he's still one of these guys who doesn't hit the ball hard in the air that's the one concern I have
Starting point is 00:37:15 there's like like Eric Cosmer was one of those guys where when he did hit the ball in the air he didn't do it often enough and when he did he didn't hit it hard Moreno is like 16th in average eggs of velocity among catchers 18th actually just ahead of Salvador Perez that's very good love the
Starting point is 00:37:30 44% hard hit rate on fly balls and line drives, it's 32nd among catchers in average eggs of velocity at 92. So he kind of hits the ball harder on the ground than in the air. That's my only concern, but Moreno's price is so cheap.
Starting point is 00:37:47 The last two weeks, it's 170. Okay, he's in the same range of Francisco Alvers and Samuel Bessio. I'd probably take those guys just for the upside. Yeah. Bessar versus Moreno would be a legit question mark. And I did kind of say this,
Starting point is 00:38:03 but it gets lost in all the other things I said. How much, how much would Moreno's home run output have to improve for him to look a lot like William Contreras? I mean, William Contreras, you know, playing as often as any catchers the last three years, 17 home runs, 23 home runs, 17 home runs. So it's a 15 to 20 homer power. And I think Gabriel's plate skills are pretty similar. Obviously, there are differences in provenness.
Starting point is 00:38:32 and durability. Yeah, played appearances for sure. Yeah, but in terms of upside, what kind of upside Moreno offers, if he can get that home run output up to that 15 to 20 range, not daunting, then it looks really good. Yeah, I think it's a fair point, Chris. I guess the one thing that could mitigate that is if he's just putting the ball in the air more, that there are just more chances for those balls to go out.
Starting point is 00:38:57 Although we would just prefer all of them to be hit hard, but yeah, kind of can cancel. out just by more volume of balls in the air for Gabriel Moreno. Let's take our final break. When we return, I will quickly run through my breakout 2.0. We'll take a look at Scott's Tout Wars team. And then we will wrap up with a recap of breakouts 1.0. Still a lot to go here. Let's get to it right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Chris, what were you dancing to during the break? What was that? Just the song. Just the CBS Sports H.Q song. Yeah, you really like that commercial. It's a very propulsive beat. It's, yeah, it's very upbeck.
Starting point is 00:39:32 there. All right, are there any names left for me in Breakouts 2.0? I mean, not really. I've got some here. I will quickly mention I also have Jack Caglione and Mick Abel on this list, but we have talked about them a lot over the past two days. So the three names we haven't talked about, I have Edward Cabrera who finally put it together last season. He got the walks down to a respectable range, 8%. 3.1 walks per 9. He changed up the pitch mix through his four-scene fastball a lot less. I just think he cannot command that pitch at all. And he threw his sinker and slider more. And obviously the results were much better.
Starting point is 00:40:07 He gets ground balls. It's over a strikeout per inning. 12.6% swinging strike rate is a very healthy percentage there for Edward Cabrera. And now he's on the Cubs, which might have the best defense in all of baseball. So we saw last year low Bavibs across the board for that team. Matthew Boyd, Shoti Emanaga, Cade Horton. They are, their defense. is so good, it allows you to outperform your peripheral numbers.
Starting point is 00:40:34 And so I could see something like that working out here for Edward Cabrera as well. He isn't without his flaws. Obviously, he has never really stayed healthy for a full season. And I have no idea if he will maintain the gains in control. But where his ADP is the past two weeks, 188, given the team context and what he showed last season, I think that is a worthwhile gamble there for Edward Cabrera. Next name up here, Scott, one that you will approve of. for sure.
Starting point is 00:41:02 Jonathan Ironda. Could I say one thing about Edward Cabrera because I've been waiting to say it? Uh-oh. So the whole breakout case, the whole really case of him sustaining what he did last year is that sinker, right? Commanding it better than the four-seamer,
Starting point is 00:41:18 and so fading the four-seamer for it. Yep. Cabrera said this spring that he wants his fastball to be a more prominent part of his arsenal. He's already relenting, which was my fear. I actually put him in busts. Even though the price is fine, and so I don't know that I should have him in bus, but just in terms of bottom-out potential, I think he could refer to be an old Cabrero because he doesn't.
Starting point is 00:41:40 I'm not sure he has the stick to it to continue with what he did last year that allowed him to have so much success. Stick-tuitiveness. Isn't there like a way of phrasing that so it becomes like a term? Yeah, I think it's a stuativeness. Yeah, I think you're close. That's a thing people say. Well, a sinker is a type of fastball, Scott, right? So we can just kind of hope it's the sinker,
Starting point is 00:42:04 unless he said four seam fastball. No, because he threw more four seamers in that start, and he was responding to that. All right, well, if it fails early, hopefully he goes back to the pitch mix from less. The price, yeah, it's low risk for the price. I just, I'm going to remain pessimistic about Edward Cabrera. I just, I still like the skills and the team context. I really like there as well with Edward Cabrera.
Starting point is 00:42:26 Jonathan Arronda's next up here. He had the breakout last season, it was cut short due to a wrist fracture that kept him out nearly two months, but he hit 316, 14 homers, 883 OPS, and 106 games. His full season pace, 21 homers, 85 runs, 90 RBI, insane hard hit numbers and expected stats. 291XBA was 97th percentile, 515 X-slug, 93rd percentile. And then he was 93rd percentile or better in Ex-Woba, average exit velocity, hard hit, launch angle sweet spot percentage.
Starting point is 00:43:00 So Aranda was just an awesome hitter last season, one of the best on a per plate appearance basis. I think some people are probably just worried about him sitting against lefties because he's on the raise. I guess that's always a possibility, but he was really solid against lefties last year. He hit 274 with a 723 OPS. And I kind of just think he's one of their best hitters on the team.
Starting point is 00:43:22 So I feel like he has to play every day. And the ADP the last two weeks is 185 for Aranda. He's right next to my guy, South Stewart. I prefer Sal Stewart, but the price is rising a little bit on Stewart. So if someone likes him even more than I do, I am totally fine, with Jonathan Ironda is a corner infielder. Honestly, if you miss on everything and he's your starting first baseman, I don't think that's crazy.
Starting point is 00:43:46 Might happen in a 15-teamer. First base gets bleak there. As we'll talk about shortly. Yeah, and let's stick in Tampa Bay here. And I will just quickly point out Griffin Jacks. He is one of the best relievers in all of baseball over the past two seasons. Here are his numbers and his ranks among qualified relievers. 12.8K per 9 is 7th best, 28% K minus walk rate.
Starting point is 00:44:09 That's fifth best. 18% swinging strike rate is third best. A 2.22 FIP is fourth. And then 4.2 war is third best among relievers during that time. Edwin Ouseta is dealing with the shoulder injury. He's not going to be ready for opening day. I think Tampa Bay probably still uses or starts with a committee approach, but if Griffin Jacks just proves he can do the job,
Starting point is 00:44:35 there is a chance that he just lean on him. Because the past couple of years, Pete Fairbanks was just the guy for Tampa Bay whenever he was healthy. So I think as good as Jacks is, there is a chance that he can run away with that. And I know his price is on the rise too, but honestly, not egregious. Last two weeks, it's 185 for Griffin Jacks. think that's still totally fine for him. And again, I just think he's really talented. There's kind of, there's a trio of relievers. I kind of like his breakouts. It's him, Abner Ariba, and although Aribe kind of broke out already, but, you know, I think he'll get
Starting point is 00:45:07 more saves this year. And Daniel Palencia, same thing for him. I just think he does it over a full season here. So, all right, those are the three. Anything else you guys would like to add? Cabrera, Griffin Jacks, and Aranda? I'm not a believer in Edward Cabrera. And I'll grant that this might just be one of those cases of one, I hate pitchers who don't have good control. Like I just, I can't watch them. It's not true that it, because like I like Dylan Sees on my fantasy teams this year, but I cannot watch guys like that pitch. I cannot watch Blake Snow. I cannot watch Dylan Seas. I cannot watch Edward Cabrera. And unfortunately, I have watched a lot of Edward Cabrera over the years because he was on the Marlins. So I, I'm trying to avoid that bias of just he is a type of pitcher.
Starting point is 00:45:52 I can't stand watching pitch. I don't know. I want to believe that he can sustain last year or even hit a new level because even last year the whip was still pretty bad. 123, yeah? Yeah. You're aiming for more like 115 for your whole staff.
Starting point is 00:46:14 So 123 does put you in a little bit of hole. I don't know. I can't quite wrap my mind around a good Edward Cabrera maybe is my problem. It's a sort of like, I'll take him at his price. I'll take Edward Cabrera at his price. And I might need strikeouts at that point and whatever, I'll take him. But I'm not taking him with a lot of confidence.
Starting point is 00:46:36 I'm not excited about it. Yeah, I think that's the difference. I am excited. I really do like that team context. I think that defense is so good that it can kind of mask some issues for pitchers. And so look, the control always going to be an issue. I'm probably expecting around a 120 whip at best. But it could be a sub 350 ERA.
Starting point is 00:46:55 with 10K per 9. That would not surprise me with every career of the season. That's true. Cubs fans, leave Scott alone. Come after me. I can take it.
Starting point is 00:47:04 I'm a man. I'm 37. And you know what? Scott just... You're not a man until you're 40, Chris. That's fair. Well, that means I'm not a man yet,
Starting point is 00:47:12 unfortunately. Scott just drafted a bunch of men on his Tout Wars team. So let's... I did not draft any 40-year-olds. Well, no, you actually... You drafted more teenagers. You drafted quite the opposite.
Starting point is 00:47:24 Yeah, we're going back to... the Dynasty team here for Scott. So I will pull up the draft board for those watching here on YouTube. I'm going to take away the chat for a little bit just so we can see the draft board here. And Scott was picking fourth overall. So fourth from the left, if you want to follow along there. And this is a 15-te-Toroto with O-B-P. I probably should mention Tout Wars. It's an industry, expert league. It's been around for a very long time. So again, this is 15-te-team rodeo with OBP instead of batting average. Scott was picking fourth.
Starting point is 00:47:55 We'll get into the specific players and all that in just a bit. But I have to imagine you're pretty excited, Scott. Like I looked through this entire team and I came away thinking, this is a Scott White team. Interesting that you say that. Because I think for the first three rounds, it most certainly wasn't. And a little bit of, for the second straight year,
Starting point is 00:48:18 my plan for the first. You got Ronald Acuna. And you were a brave. fan how is this not a scott team oh but from fantasy perspective chris is more the ycuna guy and and and that's that's what i'm getting into is like i for weeks my plan i knew i had pick four i finished fourth last year i was going to take pick four hoping sodo in an o bp league would last to four but understanding he probably won it and i would take hosea ramirez that was my plan and then i got to looking at obp's since i don't work with o bp very much i like to do a little refresher before i go into the taut wars draft
Starting point is 00:48:50 just highlighting players at every position who stand out an OBP, who I should expect to elevate. And I was reminded that two of the last three years, Ronald de Cunia had a 415 OBP, which is insane. I mean, that's even better than Juan Soto had last year. And J-RAM is like 360, you know? Not bad, but that was a big difference between those two. so I convinced myself after weeks of assuming Ramirez
Starting point is 00:49:21 in the last 10 minutes before the draft if I don't get Soto I should probably go Acuna so that's what I did took Ronald de Cunia fourth overall which by the way Bobby Witt wasn't even factoring into my plans here he doesn't walk a lot you get hit for such a high average that the OPP could still turn out pretty great as happened two years ago but
Starting point is 00:49:40 but no I was it was between J. Ram and Acunia for me in an OBP league and I went with the Coonia a little more risk there but the upside I mean, I'm sure Chris would have gone with Acuna even if it wasn't OPP. So, no, I do have it. I have in traditional 5 by 5, I have a Cune ahead of Soto. Oh, you don't have a head of Ramirez. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:04 Oh, okay. Okay. Well, anyway, for whatever. Did you take it a Cooney over Ramirez and OBP? I think so, yes. Okay. Ramirez is a good OVP source. Acuna is like, he fluctuates a lot, but the back.
Starting point is 00:50:17 years are 360 and the good years are like four well the bad years are tied to injury too yes so but i think for his career it's like 390 or something really good yeah so i went with the cunia and then in round two now here's what kills me because i had my choices i had the fourth choice of what pick to take since i finished fourth last year and i chose the fourth pick thinking as i laid it out hopefully sodo but probably ramirez If I had known a Kunia was in this discussion, I would have said fifth. I might have even said sixth,
Starting point is 00:50:53 trusting that wit, you know, saying I could live with wit instead, just being like, there's not a realistic chance I'm going to get Soto at four, so let me just take six. And then I could have gotten Cattel Marte,
Starting point is 00:51:04 a great OPP guy in round two, because he went in that sixth spot, well, 10th in round two. Pete Alonzo followed with the 11th pick in round two. And I was forced to take the first round two player who I don't think really deserves to be a round two player in OPP league, which was frustrating because like, I didn't have to pick fourth.
Starting point is 00:51:29 I would have been thrilled with Catele-Marte or Pid Alonzo there, had to settle for Trey Turner. I felt like Jackson Churio, barely a 300 OPP wasn't even in the discussion. Yeah. So Turner feels like a pretty underwhelming third round, second round pick. And then in round three, Manny Machado is who I took. And my own ranking said Matt Olson, I think the categories, by the categories, Matt Olson made more sense. But my rationale was, man, as thin as third base is in a 12-team league, if it's close enough between Olson and Machado, probably should just take Machado and not have to worry about that very weak position anymore. A lot more first basemen become interesting in OBP versus batting average or at least a handful more.
Starting point is 00:52:17 so maybe it won't be so bad. Olson goes two picks later and first base gets crushed this whole draft. I mean, Sal Stewart goes 86th. That's the kind of, that's the way things were going. Like every first baseman going well ahead of ADP. Wow.
Starting point is 00:52:35 So as it turns out, I ended up with not just Machado, but Issoc Perretti's and Royce Lewis. I ended up with three third basemen. And first base, meanwhile, I had to scrape the bottom of the barrel. I don't know if we want to get into that yet or if you want to go through some picks.
Starting point is 00:52:53 But that's... Oh, yeah, you did scrape the bottom of the barrel. Scrape the bottom of the barrel. I guess I'll get into it. We should probably mention who it is at Spencer Steer. It's Spencer Steer, who I think, relatively speaking, is a bargain. In round 18, by the way.
Starting point is 00:53:09 Yeah. Round 18? What pick does that come out to? That's like 250 range. That sounds like 240-something, yeah. Yeah. Ryan O'Hern went one. spot before. I'd rather have steer than that.
Starting point is 00:53:20 And what's another good example of how first base was getting crushed in this draft? I'm not seeing it immediately here, but trust me when I tell you, people were reaching. I didn't want to reach. I thought
Starting point is 00:53:35 I could live with steer. But really what I liked that I did here is, you know, we talked up Bryce Eldridge as any league with a bench, just grab them and wait for him to gain first base eligibility. So I thought this was the perfect scenario to do that. It took him a little little ahead of ADP, but since every first basement was going well ahead of ADP and since the cost was low either way, 19th round right after Spencer Steer, I took Bryce Eldridge. And then very late in the
Starting point is 00:53:57 draft, I took Charlie Condit, who's having a big spring and could be an OBP guy, frankly. So I think I've given myself a chance at first base. Look, I think steer will be worth starting anyway. Maybe I can move him to the outfield if those other ones pay off. You know, Spencer Steer is one of those guys where like the OBP is not good. It's maybe bad, but like, this is one of those things I've had to wrap my head around. We talk about this a lot with like velocity, but OBP is also like batting average has dropped a lot.
Starting point is 00:54:31 But like when I was coming up, you know, when I'm 15 and learning what OBP is, it used to be like 330 was average and like 310 was unplayably bad. Now 315 is pretty much average. It's not far off. And Steer's not as terrible as you think. He's actually probably slightly better in OVP than he is batting average. He walks quite a bit, but his batting average is so low that it.
Starting point is 00:55:01 And a wrinkle there is his batting average was dragged down by an awful April where he clearly wasn't healthy. And I think people are forgetting that with Steer also. But you know what? It's obviously, Steer isn't the highlight of the team here. I think he's a fine concession for not wanting to pay the premium for a first base. And it's just funny how it turned out because I could have taken Olson thinking, I took Machado thinking there'd be a headache at third base and the headache actually ended up first base,
Starting point is 00:55:29 which I know has happened to a lot of people in these 15 teamers with the corner infield spot to fill. Other notable picks, Bryce Terang in round four. That's your guy. Like that price. Acuna, Turner, Machado, Tarang. I'm pretty much covered for steals at that point. Tarang should deliver a good OBP. Well, here's another Steels guy.
Starting point is 00:55:54 Pete Crow Armstrong in round five. That was one of the big eyebrow raisers. That is the effect of an OBP league. Pete Crow Armstrong delivered probably his best case scenario last year, and it was still sub-300, the OBP league. So you see how much you falls? Sub-2-90. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:08 Hopefully taking Acuna instead of Jose Ramirez in round one. will make up for Pete Crow Armstrong's shortcomings there. Jose Altuve is my third outfielder, actually. I don't need him for middle infielder. Connor Griffin. Yeah. The steals keep coming, baby. Yeah, 12th round is very good.
Starting point is 00:56:29 Yeah, I wrote down, pick 177. That seems-177. Again, his ADP, the past week was like 150 around there. Yeah, so. This was the point. in the draft when I realized, oh, I'm going to have to go cheap at first base. My first baseman is going to suck. So I need to make a big splash somewhere else.
Starting point is 00:56:51 And I decided I'd take the shot on Connor Griffin in the 12th round. It probably want me to touch on pitching a little bit. So obviously I went a little weak there since my first five picks were hitters, Acuna Turner Machado, Terang, PCA. Lozardo, Jesus Lazzardo in round six. Framber Valdez in round seven. That's my duo. I think it's a fine duo.
Starting point is 00:57:17 Yeah, it's a good pairing of skills. Josh Hader in round nine, Carlos Estevez and round 10 are my closers. It's hard to be thrilled with either one of those, but I have to put it into context. In addition to first base getting slammed in this draft, closer got slammed. Is this a saves league?
Starting point is 00:57:36 Yes. I obviously am not excited about Carlos Estevez, given some of what we've seen this spring. I put him in bus 2.0. Carlos Estevez, where I took him, was after Dennis Santana, Sir Anthony Dominguez, and Griffin Jackson had all gone off the board. So it's like, well, I guess I like him in that context, you know,
Starting point is 00:57:59 and just hope that them saying, oh, he went through this last spring anyway. And, you know, he still led the majors and saves. So, yeah, I mean, Hader and Estevez, I need things to go right there, but in theory, those are two closers. And I should be covered for saves if they actually are closers. Trevor Rogers is my number three starting pitcher. Brandon Woodruff is my number four.
Starting point is 00:58:26 I got him really late, I felt like. So I don't mind that top four. Obviously, I didn't get as high end of a pitcher as most teams did. But then I like the way I finished at starting pitcher. Merrill Kelly and Ryan Nelson outside of the first 20 rounds. I think those are two two good ratio stabilizers innings guys at a point where most of those were gone. And then Shane Bieber very, very late, just crossing my fingers on him, Jacob Lopez, like the strikeout upside there. Mick Abel, Parker Messick.
Starting point is 00:59:00 I think there's a lot of upside there. Obviously they're not going to hit, but these are bench options for me. And I'm just hoping one or two of them do. They're not all going to hit. is what you meant to say. What did I say? You said they're not going to hit. And I was going to say, oh, those are bad picks then.
Starting point is 00:59:14 They're not all going to hit. Yeah. I would hope you have a little more faith in them than that. Scott, I will say if they added a category this year for most days on the IL, I think your pitchers would be great. Well, I mean, look, that's going to be true for everybody's team. Right? Josh Hater is already dealing with injury.
Starting point is 00:59:36 Brandon Woodruff is supposed to be ready for opening. day, but he's already dealing with injury. Ryan Nelson, they don't think that injury, I'm sorry, Merrill Kelly. They don't think that injury is a big deal, but technically he might begin the year on the IL. Shane Bieber definitely will. And Shane Bieber is the one I'm actually worried about,
Starting point is 00:59:52 but I got him so late that it's, I got him almost, I think, close to 300. And we should mention that there are unlimited IL spots in this week. Yes. So that makes sense. With both Woodruff and Kelly, I think there's been some like,
Starting point is 01:00:07 I don't know if they'll be ready for opening day. In both instances, though, it does sound like the expectation is still not opening day. Like they will not be the opening day starter. And they might have been if they were fine. But the first turn through the rotation is still the expectation for both Brandon Woodruff and Merrill Kelly. Yeah. Yeah. So I feel fine about them health-wise.
Starting point is 01:00:31 I mean, Woodruff doesn't mean he'll stay healthy all year. He rarely has in his career. but he was a bargain where I got him. Yeah, 13th round. I'm kind of out on Brandon Woodruff a little bit this year, but 13th round in a 15-team league is. I mean, yeah, that is. He went after Blake Snell, Shane Boz,
Starting point is 01:00:52 Mackenzie Gore, Bubba Chandler. For how long you waited, I think your pitching stuff is pretty good. I think it came together okay. I mean, I do worry a little bit about the innings, but yeah, I mean, that is a good value on Woodruff. That's why I tried to stack my people. bench with upside options is just give me
Starting point is 01:01:08 give me contingencies since I'm taking on a little more risk there you may be worried about my power obviously I got a lot of speed up front power is becoming an issue well in round 14 close to pick 200 I took isaq paredes who may be someone I can slot at first base later and also a good o BP guy so I think he was the perfect fit for my team at that point get that man to the Braves let's go well that'd be great but I think he's going to play enough either way. And then right after him in round 15,
Starting point is 01:01:41 I took Dalton Varsho, who you know, I like, I think between those two Perrida's in Varsho, I'm going to get 60 home runs, and it may be more. It may be more. Samuel Bessio was my first catcher in round 16. That's very late. I felt fortunate to get him. I was looking at maybe pairing Bessio and Carter Jensen there at the 16-17 turn.
Starting point is 01:02:03 I was going to ask you, were you freaking out when Carter Jensen went one pick before you. Because I, I would, yeah, I was, I was a little annoyed. I was going to take Passaiu ahead of Jansen, or Jensen, excuse me. But I saw those two still there when catchers like J.T. Real Muto and Austin Wells were already going off the board and, you know, Kyle Teal, Gabriel Moreno, they went rounds before. It's like I, I really whiffed here at catcher and somehow these two, stud rookies are going to fall in my lap.
Starting point is 01:02:38 And only one of them did. But it would have been great if both did. Yeah. I don't know. Anything else we need to talk about here? I wanted to mention to some of the other kind of rookie upside picks that you wound up taking here along with Connor Griffin. Yeah, there's a lot of rookies.
Starting point is 01:02:52 So Connor Griffin, let me just say, I did not come in with a plan to take a bunch of rookies. Connor Griffin was the one time where I said, I'm going to roll the dice here and hope to score big. And I already talked about one. You didn't reach on any of them. I didn't reach. 177 is lower than ADP.
Starting point is 01:03:10 I think in theory people might look at and say, well, four hitter rookies. I don't know about that. But two of them are on the bet, right? It's four. Right. And maybe. Oh, Bessai, I guess five. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:23 Yeah. Most of them I got for cheap. And the alternative, the safe veteran alternative in every case was a guy who had either major health concerns, playing time concerns, or just performing. concern. So I don't feel like I took on a lot of risk with any of these rookies. I wasn't, you know, obviously they're not slam dunks, but I think, uh, I think the risk reward equation clearly worked out in their favor. So I don't know if you want to get into who they are, Frank, but. Yeah, we've got Bryce Eldridge at 274, Chase DeWater at 327. We mentioned McAble at 364,
Starting point is 01:03:58 Parker Messick at 387, but then also Charlie Condon at 394. But again, it's, you know, they're all outside the top 270 pretty much. So you're not expecting much from those guys anyway. Yeah, I mean, obviously if Condon doesn't make the team, I'm probably just dropping him. He was my third to last pick in a very deep league. I told you to take T.J. Rumfield and just lock up the Rockies first base situation, but.
Starting point is 01:04:22 I thought about it, but I had other needs, unfortunately. Chase to Lauder is slotted as my fifth outfielder. And I think he has the job if he stays healthy, big if. So I may, particularly if Connor Griffin doesn't make the team, I'm going to have to move Jose Altuvae to middle infield, and I'll need another outfield. I'll need to pick up another outfielder right away, start him. So there's some pressure on Chase DeLauder there,
Starting point is 01:04:49 but I'm strong with my top four outfield spots, which is better than I usually am in the outfields coming out of this draft. Deep five outfielder league is usually like, two or even three spots that are looking pretty dicey. And this time it's only the one. So I think I'm ahead of the game there. And you know what? De Lauder might just turn in a great rookie season.
Starting point is 01:05:15 Hope Springs Eternal. All right. Again, that's Scott's Tout Wars team. Fourth pick, Roto with OBP instead of batting average. Let us know in the comments. What do you think about Scott's Tout Wars team? And yeah, are you doing an article on this, Scott? So people can check it out.
Starting point is 01:05:32 All right. I am. They'll be able to read all about it. It's usually a very emotional article. Take it through the highs and lows of my drafting experience. So you can check that out, see the full results, not just for my team, but every other team there. Immediate reactions on Twitter are mixed.
Starting point is 01:05:51 Some people love it. Some people think I'm a big dummy who doesn't know what he's doing. And I wouldn't have it any other way, frankly. I think it's rock solid. And I'm not just saying that because, you know, we're here together every day. I do think it's solid. I do think that there's a good amount of injury risk. You took some guys that are already hurt.
Starting point is 01:06:11 And then even like Royce Lewis and some names like that. So, yes, there is a lot of risk on this team. But you got all the players that you took at pretty good values. So you can justify it. And this is what gets me. Like the gripes are like, oh, the player you got at this position isn't very good. or oh, the player at this position you got is risky. It's like my dude, if you could get through a 15-team roto draft
Starting point is 01:06:38 without being weak anywhere or taking a risk anywhere. You're always going to have a weakness in a 15-team league, always. It's always like, I think there's a quote from Denny Carter from Roto World. It was a tweet where he's talking about like every time you draft the zero-r-B team, people are like, well, I love your team, but your R-Bs are weak. And it's like, yeah, that's the whole point. Like that's, no, don't worry about it, Scott. The Hive Mind approves.
Starting point is 01:07:05 Yeah. All right, let's wrap up here with a reminder of our breakouts 1.0. Are we still in on these guys? What has changed again? We wrote those articles back in January. So five, six weeks ago now at this point, Scott. Well, Chris, you haven't talked in a while. Let's go over to Chris.
Starting point is 01:07:22 Who are your breakouts 1.0? Are you still in? Hey, what's up, guys? Yes, I am still in very much on Luke. Keishol, Ryan Pepeyo, and Chase Burns. I don't really think I need to make the case for any of them. Chase Burns has like two pitches, but they're both 70 grade pitches, and you just look at Peek Spencer Strider, Hunter Green, you can make that work. If those two pitches are good enough, I think they are for Chase Burns. I don't really think he's not going to be in the rotation either.
Starting point is 01:07:52 I think that's a very unlikely outcome. The ones who are not returning for Bounce for Breakouts 2.0, mentioned earlier. I had a lot of turnover. That's mostly just because breakout to one point out I was being a little more generous with my terminology. I was doing some bouncebacks. So Jordan Alvarez, Jackson Merrill, Dylan Sees and Sandy Alcantra. I took them out. I think they'll all be better in 2026 than they were in 2025. So I'm still very much in on those guys. And then the other guys, Samo Bessio, Jackson Holiday, Holiday. Holiday, obviously he's hurt. I don't really feel like I need to pound the table for either of them as breakouts just because they're cheap enough that I don't really feel like the case there is all that necessary.
Starting point is 01:08:38 But Basayo, I still very much believe in. That's the one that I want to really make clear that I, the numbers he put up at AAA as a 20 year old last year old, the plate discipline, I think he was the second best hitter in the international league as a 20 year old. Or third best and the two guys ahead of him were like Dylan Beavers, who's a legit prospect, but he was like 23 or 24. and the other guy was 27 or something. So I still think Samuel Bessai is going to be a, a superstar, like could be the number one catcher in fantasy for the next five years. And then Kate Smith, I still love, I just, I don't know,
Starting point is 01:09:14 putting a reliever in a bounce back column is kind of boring, right? I was like, or a breakouts column is like, yeah, Kate Smith, he's awesome. Yeah. I don't really get to like, you know, you don't get to do like a- But he's already being drafted like a stud, too. Well, yeah, he's the number five reliever in ADP. And it's also like, I'm not going to do a victory lap on Kate Smith, right? Like, oh, he got 40 saves.
Starting point is 01:09:32 Great. That's what he's supposed to do. But he could be the number one reliever in fantasy. I do think Kate Smith has number one overall reliever upside for sure. I think his ceiling, if he's used the same way as Emmanuel Class A was, and I think he should be, like his ceiling's higher than Emmanuel Class A's. Because he brings 110 strikeout upside with the four. 40 saves. Emmanuel Class A was more like a 70-80 strikeout guy. All right, I'm going to, nope. Scott, you were trying to talk to us, but you're muted.
Starting point is 01:10:05 I got to interject with something that's a commenter pointed out in this Tout Wars League. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. Mike Gianella didn't draft a starting pitcher. Interesting. Aren't there, isn't there an innings minimum that has to be met? Did that rule get dropped in a way? I mean, Mike G&L is...
Starting point is 01:10:27 Very sharp. Yeah, very sharp. No, I mean, he would only do that if there was no innings minimum. So my guess is no. Actually, I believe there isn't because I know in the AL and NO only ones, there have been teams that have gone full reliever strategy and have won in Tout Wars in recent years doing that. And my guess is if it's allowed in AL and NL only,
Starting point is 01:10:50 then it probably is here as well. I don't know that it should be allowed Okay, well that's interesting I mean Mike Ginell I think he won two years ago I've played with him for a long time He's always competitive yeah yeah That's okay Worth worth pointing that out
Starting point is 01:11:06 I'll point that out in the article He took Andres Munoz in round four Pete Fairbanks in round seven Ryan Walker in round 11 And just hammered middle relievers With his like last six picks or something yeah Yeah Robert Suarez Mordejohn
Starting point is 01:11:19 Grant Taylor Jason Adam Tanner Scott Phil Mait So he'd better have good hitting. Yeah. I agree. Took some risky hitters. I don't know. We'll see.
Starting point is 01:11:32 All right. Interesting strategy. I am going to quickly list off some of my names from Breakouts 1.0 here and let you know what has changed. I have Ben Rice, Roman Anthony, Kyle Braddish, Cam Schlittler, Treyia Savage, Royce Lewis, Mackenzie Gore, Sal Stewart, Braxton, Ashcraft, and Chad Patrick. So Bradish, we talked about earlier. he will have some kind of innings limit. I lowered him a touch, but I'm still in.
Starting point is 01:11:55 I have him ranked around SP20. Cam Schlittler had the mid-back tightness, but seems like all as well. He has been facing hitters. Expect it to be ready for the start of the season. Still in there. Trey is Savage. He's being eased into action.
Starting point is 01:12:09 The Blue Jay's plan to slow play him early in the season, keep the innings down a little bit so that he could pitch further into the year and obviously into the postseason as well. I think I'm going to lower him a bit in the rankings, but the price was already so low that I think it's still fine to be in on Traia Savage. Royce Lewis, he was scratched last week with right side tightness, but he returned here on Tuesday and picked up another stolen base.
Starting point is 01:12:34 I think that's like two in four or five games. And he had like 11 in the second half last year. Yeah. And they all came in like the final 30 games or something like that. Royce Lewis just cannot be normal. Remember he had like that three week stretch where every hit was a grand slam. Dare to be different, Chris. And like, yeah, he's still weird, but like, man, what if he does it all?
Starting point is 01:12:56 What if he does all of the stuff at the same time? Yeah, and the last name I have here on the list, the price for Braxton Ashcraft is going up. The ADP is 272 in the last two weeks, but I am still all over that, especially in Head Ted Pointe Leagues as a spark there with Braxton Ashcraft. All right, Scott, bring us home, remind us of your breakouts 1.0, and what, if anything, has changed? So Edwin Useta's been removed. That's what's changed. I don't think he's the front runner to close.
Starting point is 01:13:26 Pretty simple. He may be more of a sleeper now, because it doesn't sound like he's going to begin on the IEL, at least last I saw. But it's pretty worrisome, the injury he has. Yeah. Ben Rice does remain. And I think the fervor has cooled a little bit. I think you can get him back in that 60 to 70 range. certainly on platforms outside of NFBC.
Starting point is 01:13:52 And I actually took him as my first baseman in an AL-only league. I think if you're in one of those leagues where first base gets drained, that's something to think about. It's crazy as it sounds. Catcher being so deep. Maybe Ben Rice, you draft him, you end up playing a more of first base. If he's an everyday player, it could work.
Starting point is 01:14:10 Kyle Braddish, yeah, I think he's a low-key Sy Young contender. The last full-healthy season he had, he finished four. than a al-signing of voting, and he's only looked better in the limited chances since then. Augustine Ramirez, boy, catcher is so deep. He could stand to pull the ball, to elevate the ball to his pull side more, and just underperformed all his expected stats last year and was still really good. Plus, maybe the only catcher who could steal you some bases. Chase Burns, this was actually one of them...
Starting point is 01:14:41 He could steal like 20, 25 bases. Chase Burns, this was one of my regrets from Tau. Wars actually and a signal that I need to move Chase Burns up because I could have taken him as my number three pitcher in round nine where I took Josh Hader. I suppose I might have had saves problems if I did that, but I think I would have rather taken Burns given the risks associated with Hayter. He might be the best bat misser in baseball, honestly. He already has more double-digit strikeout efforts in his career than Paul Skeenz does. And Chase Burns has only made eight starts. And they were basically in four consecutive starts.
Starting point is 01:15:20 Yeah. Gavin Williams, I mean, top prospect pedigree, looks like he came into his own in the second half, was overachieving in the first half, and I think that sticks out in the minds of a lot of people, like, ah, fade this guy. He got better in the second half in terms of bad missing, in terms of control, made some tweaks to his arsenal that back it up.
Starting point is 01:15:42 I think everyone will recognize he's great this year. Noel V. Marte. If he plays enough, if you can avoid the slump we saw in September, I think there's five-category production there. And he's third base eligible, which helps. Probably gets too often people reach for him because of that, I think. But in theory, I like the upside for Noel V. Marte. Emmett Sheehan, great missing potential there.
Starting point is 01:16:08 And I think the Dodgers need him in the rotation more than they ever have before. Yvonne Herrera, Chris talked about him. Bubba Chandler, feel like that's pretty obvious. best pitching prospect of baseball. It's had control issues in two starts this spring, and that's concerning, given how his stint to AAA went, but I'm not going to overreact to that yet.
Starting point is 01:16:26 Jonathan Aranda, love him, have loved him for years. I'm glad you're coming around, Frank. Yeah. Dalton Varshow, 162 game pace last year of 466 home runs. His exit velocities jump by like three miles per hour, and he started every game of the postseason for the Blue Jays. So I don't even think there's a platoon concern there.
Starting point is 01:16:46 I think Farshows under the radar, big power bat. And that's it. That's everybody. All right. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
Starting point is 01:17:01 And we will be back again tomorrow 9.30 p.m. Eastern Time live mock trap. Be there. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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