Fantasy Baseball Today - Breakouts 2.0! Nico Hoerner, Lars Nootbaar & Other Draft Targets (3/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 7, 2023

What's the difference between a breakout and a sleeper in Fantasy Baseball (1:00)? ... Corbin Carroll is ready for lift off (6:40). ... Oneil Cruz and Vinny Pasquantino are two of our favorites (15:00). ... Gunnar Henderson and Wander Franco offer some youthful upside (22:48). ... Why draft Amed Rosario when you can get Nico Hoerner later (26:27)? Why does everybody love Lars Nootbaar? ... Can these old guys stay healthy for a season (36:10)? ... Sean Murphy is primed for a breakout in Atlanta (45:23). ... News (47:38): Andrew Painter was diagnosed with elbow soreness this weekend (47:38). ... We wrap with the rest of our breakouts (56:50). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Make sure to join our Fantasy Baseball Today March Madness bracket challenge here: https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2hazdeobwhayq====?pool-join-key=luc355rrnbhkblo9afv0ti95ozzbzg66&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhiytenztgq2dsojz&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF23_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Everybody loves breakouts. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, March 7th. Frank Stample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.

Today on the show, we've got Breakouts 2.0. Oh, all the latest news and spring notes from the weekend, recent injuries, unfortunately. But let's start this way. Scotty, I feel like I ask you this question every year, but we likely have new viewers and new listeners. What, in your opinion, is the difference between a sleeper and a breakout? If anything. It's the difference between a piece of content and two pieces of content. No, not really.

That's the joke difference. Because it is hard to, you're kind of parsing by separating one from the other. I mean, they're both just generally players. I want a lot of because I think they're going to outperform their draft position, right? I think, though, breakouts implies a certain level that's been established and is now going to be exceeded in a way that hasn't. been reached before. Like, I feel like you can only have one breakout in your career, right?

I mean, maybe you could break out a little bit and then break out a little bit more. Maybe you can have more than one break out. But it's not, it's not a place for guys who, whose career best season already happened and they're trying to get back to that. See, I disagree. Okay. See, so it doesn't mean anything then. It depends.

Because, like, the way we often. and talk about it. And this is just like the way CBS fantasy has always. Brandon is like sleepers break out some busts are these three discreet categories that we talk about. And we build a lot of our preseason content around that. I just knocked my Nintendo switch off of my desk. That's the sound that you might have heard

just now. I thought your cat, like, I thought your cat fell off your desk or something. That was me. That was me. I had my switch there. I'll have to get that afterwards so I can catch them all tonight. Chris, you've been living in New York for what, a couple of years now and all of a sudden you're talking with your hands.

you're knocking things over. What's going on? Hey, I'm walking here. Okay. Yeah, you, but like, so like the way we do it, we draw these arbitrary lines and it's, it's inherently arbitrary,

but like, it depends. Is there also a fourth category called bounce backs? Sure, but I tend to lump breakouts and bounce backs in the same category. I usually put,

I usually put the bounce backs with the sleepers, see. Sure. It's what. whatever, but generally, generally speaking, I think, like, sleepers is undervalued players, for one reason or another. Breakouts are players who are likely to establish a new level of play. Or, like, the problem is like, so what do you do with like Barry Bonds, right?

1989, 777 OPS, 1990, 970 OPS, breakout, 1992, 1080, 180, 1080.80. OPS breakout 1993 1136 OPS breakout 2001 1379 but he broke out like five times I don't know

I don't know that I would have called I think they all do okay we don't need to have but also it's like the I I don't I can't define it but I know it when I see it

kind of thing you know to a certain extent yeah I think there's usually you usually think of players is having one breakout usually, but not always. Yeah, I think it's subjective. I think for me, I agree, Chris, sleepers, undervalued players, and I always associate more upside with breakouts, right? So, you know, maybe guys that, again, I think are quote unquote being slept on, those are the

sleepers, but the breakouts are the ones that like could A, either reach a new level or, I don't know, outperform their ADP by 50, 100 spots, something like that. Like to me, it's all associated with upside basically. But I will say like, and this is just kind of my thing, but like, a sleeper probably cannot also be a bust, but I think a breakout can be a bust. I think you could reasonably pick the same player for both. Like, I did that with Gabe Davis, this NFL fantasy season, because it was just kind of like, I could see either one happening. And it's, you know, it's about making the case for it and letting the person decide. And so, like, I might, we're going to do bus tomorrow.

I haven't decided yet, but I might have Hunter Green on my bus list. I'm not sure yet because I did my bus article that's going on the site. And I did say that I'm removing him from my bus list, but it's also like, you know, I could also see a scenario where like things go really wrong for Hunter Green. I can totally talk myself into both Hunter Green as a breakout. But like a sleeper,

it's hard for a sleeper to be a bus just because they're, your sleeper and bust are more about value. I think. Breakout is less about value. A second round player can break out. Bobby Witt can break out. Aaron Judge broke out last year. He was a third round player. He was then he finishes the number one player in fantasy. The one I always go to is John Carlos Stanton in 2017 when he won the MVP. I let these Yahoo's talk me out of picking him as a breakout would have been a great call. But they're like he's already broken out. You can't. And it's like, well, he hit 50. I mean, Aaron has turns out he could. season before. But like he broke out last year.

I think it's fair to say. Clearly this is a boring conversation. We should just be more. All right, fair enough. Let's get into the breakouts. But first, remind people of the ones

that we gave you back on January 31st. Corbyn Carol, Dustin May, and Riley Green for Chris. Now Riley Green's a sleeper for Chris. Maybe not as much upside. Corey Seeger, Vinipas, Guantino,

and Vaugh and Grissom for Scott, Eloy Jimenez, Lars Newpar, and Jeffrey Spring. for me. Let's get into our first round of Breakouts 2.0 here, and Scott will start with you. You are now taking over the Corby and Carole train as well as Christian Javier on the pitching side. Yeah, so these are the kind of two higher end picks for Breakouts 2.0. And I'm starting to get pretty excited about drafting Corbyn Carroll. I tried to show some restraint

early on but man it's it's just like if he lives up to his potential given how few high-end outfielders there are and how many outfielders we all need oh that's going to be such a special pick at the at the spot where he's going and you know based on what I've seen this spring it's doing nothing to dampen the enthusiasm so he's already walked six times this spring compared to two strikeouts. And plate discipline was something he showed, particularly early in his minor career, minor league career,

was a very, it really stood out for him. And as he climbed the ladder and his hitting numbers were off the charts, it became less noticeable. But like, I think the guy knows what he's doing at the plate. I think he has a good grasp of the strike zone.

And he's been batting lead off a lot this spring, which makes sense. I mean, Dalton Varsha was the Diamondbacks primary leadoff hitter last year. Obviously, he's gone. You got Carroll, speedy guy, a guy who seems to have good on-base skills. It would make sense if he got to bat lead-off, which of course would mean better run-scoring potential,

better counting, potential for more counting stats overall because of the amount of extra bats he's going to get over the course of the year. So I think the most questionable part, of Corbyn Carroll's skill set remains the power, but I'm not sure with everything else he brings to the table that it even matters that much, whether he's a 15 homer guy or a 25 homer guy, because it's likely he's going to hit at least 280, it's likely he's going to steal at least 30 bases, it's likely he's going to score 100 runs if he's the everyday lead-off man. And then the extra power would just be gravy. It would be the difference between him returning fourth-round. numbers versus him returning second or first round numbers. Either way, you're talking about very big production from, what is he on average in a 12th team league?

Is the ADP right now on Fantasy Pro's is 77.8? But at the NFBC the last two weeks, it's 66.8. And I think that's more representative of where I've been seeing him go in the sixth round of a 12 team league. Sometimes. Yeah. Okay. So six or seventh round, either way.

Either way, you're talking about a guy who's likely to exceed that production and perhaps in a major way. He is a rookie. Maybe he'll have more struggles than I'm anticipating. But the miners came so easily to him. He just breezed through it, even missing a year to the pandemic, even missing almost a year to a shoulder injury. Corbyn Carroll was consistently a stud down there. And I suspect, I suspect everybody who drafts him is going to be really happy with him. Fastest player in baseball last season, according to baseball savon.

the sprint speed statistic on stat cast and the Diamondbacks were sixth in stolen bases last year. They still have the same manager. So I have to assume they're still going to be pretty aggressive on the base paths and that bodes very well for Corby and Carol and Jake McCarthy if you're into him as well. The other one that you have here, Scott, is Christian Javier. Actually going at a very similar spot as Carol.

He is a top 70 pick right now. Typically you wait on pitching, Scott. Are you good with Christian Javier as your SP1 if you wait? So it hasn't happened yet. It could happen at some point. And what I really want to drive home here is that of that kind of second tier of starting pitchers, Christian Javier probably has the best chance of breaking into the first tier. Because on a per inning basis, he was a first tier pitcher last year.

He had. And his skill set is kind of perfectly optimized for the current environment because he has that big strikeout potential 11.7K per 9 last year. That was sixth among pitchers with at least 100 innings. But he also has that hit limiting potential that comes with an extreme fly ball rate, highest fly ball rate among all pitchers with at least 100 innings. He was pretty good even during the juice ball era of not getting. not letting home runs ruin him even with that high fly ball rate,

but now that that's over and fly ball rates more, fly balls are more often resulting in outs. I think that's more of a mark in Javier's favor than a mark against him. 5.4 hits per nine last year. His 228 Babbitt, I believe, was the lowest among qualifying pitchers. It was the third lowest among pitchers

with at least 100 innings. But, you know, normally would say, oh, he had such a low BAP-IP, he was lucky, but with the extreme fly-ball rate, I don't think that's necessarily the case. Plus, his hit rates have been consistently low for his career. And specifically with regards to that. So I think it. Oh, yes, specifically with regards to, you know, the low BABIP and whether it's sustainable.

Like, I think a lot of us tend to think of fly balls is a bad thing. Or on a hitter side. fly balls are a good thing. You want more fly balls when you're a hitter. You want fewer fly balls when you're a pitcher. However, in Christian Javier's case, he gets a bunch of infield fly balls. And that's a key because those like for his career, he's gotten, he's generated 50 infield fly balls. He's given up. I want to say 42 home runs. If I'm doing the math in my head correctly, I can't find it. It doesn't matter. It's lower, fewer than the number of infield fly balls he's given up. And so infield fly balls never turn into hits, never, you know, is an overstatement, but very, very rarely. Obviously,

home runs always turn into hits. So if you're good at it generating infield fly balls and good at avoiding home runs, you're going to be good at avoiding hits. This is something that Tristan McKenzie's done very well with as well. So, I mean, just to demonstrate the effect, the impact of that, six of Javier's final nine starts last year. He allowed two hits or fewer. I mean, you're just, you're just kind of invincible. I think he had six starts

of at least five innings and one or no hits allowed. He was part of a combined no hitter against the Yankees last year. He threw six no hit innings in the World Series against the Phillies, five and a third one hit innings against the Yankees in the playoffs.

So does not give up hits? It's pretty awesome. So I guess what I'm trying to say here with Javier is you look at the 254 ERA, the 0.95 whip, the 11.7K per 9. I think it's all pretty legitimate. Don't let the BABIP scare you away. Don't let the slightly high walk rate scare you away. With Javier, it's really just a question of how many innings is he able to add on this year. His first year as a true full-time starting pitcher, not bouncing between the rotation and bullpen.

and he threw nearly 150 during the regular season last year. So I think 180 is well within reach. And if he gives 180, then he might be more or less a number one starter in fantasy. Projections for Christian Javier on Fangraps have him for between 166 and 171. Seems conservative, but I would probably expect 175. And anything more than that is a bonus on Christian Javier. Even if he does that, I think he could be really, really good. me personally, probably one of them as my SP2,

but Scott, did you answer the question? Are you good with him as an SP1 if you wait? I usually haven't waited so long that I've gotten Javier as my number one. But it sounds like the sort of thing I would do. Fair enough. Chris, let's go over to your breakouts here and these are some popular ones,

names that we like, names that many people like, O'Neill Cruz and Vinnie P. Baby! Yeah, you were saying we haven't had any like new drops this spring, and I feel like these are two players. I mean, you've got the Vinny P one. We need one for O'Neill Cruz because we talk about him so dang much. We love him so dang much.

And like, if you've listened to this podcast, even once before this episode, you've probably heard us extoll the virtues of O'Neill Cruz, has the hardest hit ball in the history of the statcast era that's dating back to 2015. Eight season sample size, it's pretty good. He's hit a ball harder than any player in baseball. first time ever that Giancarlo Stanton has not had the hardest hit ball was last season. So that just tells you why he's so fun. He's Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton Yordon-Alvarez-esque in terms of raw power.

And what we saw last season was towards the end of the year in the month of September, and I think a couple games in October. He cut his strikeout rate down to about 29%. Now, that's really high. That's a lot of strikeouts. That is almost 30%. He had a number. an OPS, I think close to 900, he hit like 280.

He had six home runs in 30-something games. This is a situation where, like Aaron Judge, like John Carlos Stanton, if he's just playing bad in terms of the strikeout rate, O'Neill Cruz is probably going to be a star-level player. If his strike-out rate is below 30%, he's probably going to have an OPS north of 850 because he's got huge power. He's going to have a good babbip because he hits the ball so hard. And he, you know, he's one of the few players who is physically capable of a 40 homer or a 40 steel season.

It's unlikely he does either. That hasn't happened since I think Ronald O'Cunia did it once. Before that, it's only happened about a dozen times. He has the physical tools to do that. His best case scenario involves both. So it's an easy breakout call. He's a high variance player. There's risk involved because he strikes out so much.

And frankly, just because we've never. ever seen a player like this in Major League Baseball. We're talking about a 6 foot 5, 220 pound shortstop. But he is completely tooled out. His pace from September on was 3025. It's just a potential superstar profile. Chris, don't sell him short either. You said 6 foot 5. Six foot 7? I thought I said 6 foot 7. That's a big boy, man. That's a big boy. I mean, like there's never been a player this big who has actually been able to play shortstop. There are not more than 20 players in baseball history who have been able to be as big as him.

One of them is Aaron Judge, a couple pitchers, but he's just, he's an outlier to a level that you rarely, rarely see. I feel like the glass half-empty approach on O'Neill Cruz is that obviously he has works in his game. There are lots of whiffs here. There's lots of strikeouts. He struggles against lefties big time,

did not hit breaking pitches, did not hit off-speed pitches. And even with that, he had 17 home runs and 11 seals in 87 games. So I would disagree. I think that the downside is factored into his ADP. He's going right around pick 75. He's one of the biggest variance plays in fantasy this year because if he hits 250, then he's probably hitting 30 home runs and stealing 20 bases. If he, like that's the thing is he could hit 280.

That's within the realm of possibility. Yeah. If he hits 250, we're probably. talking about him as a second or third round pick next year. I genuinely believe that. And he hit, so he hit 233 with 17 home runs and 10 steals in about half a seasons. So, I mean, even if, even if he just does that again over a full season, I mean, I don't know that we would be that disappointed than that. You want better than a 230 batting average from a fifth round pick, but with all the

power and speed that's going to be there. And yeah, I mean, 30% strikeout rate. I think that's the goal because the comparison. is for O'Neill Cruz is Aaron Judge. You got the height. You got the exit velocities. Easy comparison there with Judge. Well, Judge was a 30% strikeout guy early in his career.

That year he hit 52 home runs. I said 53. I mean, 52, his rookie year. He struck out at about a 30% rate. So if O'Neill Cruz can do that with that quality of contact, I think we could see something similar from him. I mean, I'm not going to say we're going to see 53 home runs from him. But I think he'll come close to that 40 Homer threshold you're talking about.

If he can just get that strikeout rate to that, you know, not worst in baseball level. O'Neill Cruz, the ADP is 74.4. He's going right around Dansby Swanson, Zander Bogartz, Wanderfranco. Chris, are you taking him over all of those names? It probably depends on what my team needs are. I could see myself taking Zander Bogartz, ahead of him. but it's, I will say this. I have not drafted any of those guys yet.

I have drafted O'Neill Cruz. There are two shortstop. So there's that big lob at shortstop that includes like Dancy Bousanson and Zander Bogarts. And I'd put Carlos Coray in that group. Willie Adomis, like a really big group. And that's usually where I take my shortstop. I'm not normally investing in it into early rounds

because I have higher priorities in the early rounds. But I would say the two short stops, they're both on my breakouts list. who I would draft a little higher than that glob. O'Neill Cruz and Corey Seeger. If I can get either of them

in round five, I'm probably going to do it. All right. And then the other one here, Chris, is Vinny Pass Quantino. The only worry I have with him because he's obviously

a very skilled hitter is the surroundings. The fact that he plays for the Royals, their ballpark is very bad for left-handed power. The team was 24th and run scored last year. We hope they take another step forward, but it's a little

scary and he was only on pace for 20 home runs last season. So do any of those things concern you? Sure. I can see a scenario where Vinnie Pasquantino just isn't as great of a power hitter as he seems like he should be, although, you know, it is the kind of thing where you look at. And if you look at the expected home run numbers from Stackast, 10 at Kaufman Stadium, it's pretty much like 14 or 15 at every other park in baseball, except for Boston. Um, and you know, he's, I worry a little bit about a player who relies so much on power to the pull side because it, you know, it could be easier to shift even in an air of shift mitigation. You know, if you look at his spray chart, it's kind of like left field is lava and he doesn't want to touch it. But that's also a reason why he might outperform the home run numbers because you look at someone like Nolan Aeronado who hits so many of his fly balls to the pool side.

If Pasquantino can do that, he makes so much contact. It's kind of a Nolan Aeronado-esque profile. You know, he's going to walk more than Aeronado, but he's very contact heavy, pulls the ball in the air. I could see a situation where Vinnie Pasquantino puts up very similar numbers to Nolan Aronado. All right. And the ADP on Vinny Pass Quantino so far, it's going just inside of the top 100 picks. Should have that. Yeah, love that value.

He's going at pick 95. So, wow. Jose Brayu is up to 80 now. How's that possible? Doesn't seem right. But anyway, 95 for Vinnie Pass Guantino, just inside the top 100. I'll quickly give you a few of my breakouts 2.0 here.

Gunner Henderson, it's a lot like Corbyn Carroll. He's arguably the top prospect in baseball. Last year, very small sample size. Four home runs, one steel. He walked a lot. Strikeouts were decently high at 26. also hit a lot of ground balls. Not as big of a problem in the minors,

something that we mentioned with Riley Green yesterday. So yes, it's a little worrisome, but I have a feeling that will regress closer to where his batted ball data has been throughout his minor league career. Gunner Henderson hit the ball extremely hard last year, 91st percentile in sprint speed. He's part of a Baltimore Orioles lineup

that is collectively getting better as a unit and obviously comes with a ton of upside at a really, really bad position at third base. His ADP is 85.8. I can't really compare him to anybody else because he's on an island. It's, you know,

Bregman goes 20 picks ahead of him and then Max Muncie goes 30 picks after him. So he's kind of the last third baseman that I really like, and I'm totally fine drafting Gunter Henderson where he's going. Scott, I agree with you that O'Neo Cruz and Corey Seeger are the two short stops.

Going in the top 100 picks that I'm likely to reach for where they're going in drafts, I've added another one to that mix, and it's Wander Franco. Last year, pretty much a loss season for him. Quad injury popped up early in the year. Hamate bone injury in July. I don't know if this was a small sample flukiness,

but he looked like he was breaking out. If you remember his April 313 batting average, four homers, eight doubles, three steals, and crushing the ball. 90.7 mile per hour average exit velocity, lots of hard contact. And then I really think that quad just kind of derailed him last year. He's not a perfect player so far. He's got some platoon splits. He's been much

better against left-handed pitching than he has been against righties. This is Wanda Franco we're talking about. And overall, his batted ball data hasn't been great, but it looked really good early on last year. He's entering his age 22 season. I think we forget how young Wander Franco is. So he's someone that I've come around on more. I do like O'Neill Cruz. I like Corey Seeger more. But once those guys are gone, I'd be looking to get Wander Franco on my teams, the ADP is 89.6 going just after some of those names that we just mentioned. Let's take our first break here. Before we do that, it's a time that many of you have been waiting for podcast listener leagues. We have 21 spots available between two leagues and

here are the dates that you need to know. The 12 team head-to-head points listener league will draft on Tuesday, March 21st. In the evening, 8 or 9 p.m. Eastern time, the 16 team head-to-head categories. League, that's the For the People League. We'll draft the following Tuesday, March 28. So right before the season starts, also in the evening, 8 or 9 p.m. How can you join?

Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I, and make sure to put listener league in the subject line. And in the email, send us something creative. That's how we're going to choose who we want. A Photoshop, make a song, a poem, or just tell us why you deserve to be in the listener league and please, please make sure that whichever league you want to be in,

that you can make that date and time, because both of these are going to be live streamed on YouTube, so we've got to make sure that everything runs smoothly, and within the email, please let us know which league that you would like to be in, and I'll announce the winners next Friday, March 17th, good luck. It's St. Patrick's Day, so that's obviously good luck. Let's take a break, and we'll be back right after this. let's get back into our breakout. Scott, we're coming back to you.

This is interesting. I haven't heard you talk up this player yet, but Nico Horner, and then the other one is everyone's favorite breakout hitter, Lars Nupar. So yeah, Nico Horner, I think you look at where he's going. On average, he is the 184th player taken. Meanwhile, you look at where Ahmed Rosario is going, 139th player taken. So, what is that, 45 spots difference between those two. Then you look at the actual numbers, Nico Horner versus Ahmed Rosario. 281 batting average for Horner, 283 for Rosario.

10 home runs for Horner, 11 for Rosario. 20 steals for Horner, 18 for Rosario. Sounds very much like the same player, right? the big difference Horner had a 481 at bats Rosario had 637 If there are bats Were going to be even

Horner's paces are actually better You'll also notice Rosario because he had so many more bats More RBI more runs scored It makes sense why Rosario's ranked so much higher than Horner But the key is that Horner was often batting at the bottom of the Cubs lineup this year,

while Ahmed Rosario generally hit second for the Guardians and will this year. I was talking about the importance of Corbyn Carroll batting leadoff. And you're seeing the difference, you know, at least top of the lineup for Rosario, bottom of the lineup for Horner, how much of a difference that can make. Well, where it is, the plan, David Ross's plan, manager of the Cubs,

is to bat Horner leadoff this year. He's been consistently doing it this spring. He says he likes him in that spot. So suddenly, Horner is going to be batting a very similar spot to Rosario. So I think you're going to see that gap between the abats close, certainly, probably with the runs and the RBI. And, you know, I'm not going to say Horner will be better than Rosario when you pace out the home run and steals total over the similar number of abats. But I think they're very much the same player. and that that lineup spot was the main thing separating the two of them.

And now that it's gone, you know, you see that 45 spot difference. I don't know, might be worth waiting for Horner rather than taking Rosario. I've never been enthusiastic about taking Rosario anyway. I'm a little more open to it this year because he's so fast that maybe his stolen bases will explode with the rule changes. but that applies to Horner as well. So, yeah, I mean, you get a dozen home runs, you get 40 steals from a guy who starts out shortstop eligible and is going to be picking up second base eligibility later

since they got Danes B. Swanson. That's where Horner's moving, second base. And he becomes pretty attractive piece, especially in Roto leagues. 40 steals, Scott. You're expecting Niko Horner to double his steals output from last season, which... All right, 30 steals. I guess it's possible. 40's a little much.

It's a little much. Let's say 30. He is a big sprint speed guy. Ninety-second percentile for Nico Horner. My one note written next to his ADP, 40 picks after Ahmed Rosario. So I would agree with you there. But of course, Scott will find any reason to talk down Amet Rosario because he hate that. I took Ahmed Rosario as my shortstop in TGFBI.

But like you hated it. You hated it. I could see not just like Amid Rosario. I could see a similar outcome for like Tommy Edmund as what Nico Harner gives you. like I think, you're horner, like, the one thing I don't love is like, you know, projecting out to X number

of plate appearances, I think the 10 home runs last year were probably a little fluky. I think he's probably more like a 10 home run guy over the course of a full season. But like, I think 30 steals is a not unreasonable expectation for him. Yeah. The only problem,

Chris, is that Nico Horner really does not hit the ball hard. And he does not barrel it up either. We're talking to 2.6% barrel rate. look, Tommy Edmund is no slugger either, but he does hit the ball a little bit harder for a second basement. So I get it.

I could see the comp, like a high-end outcome for Nico Horner, but, you know, I think there's a pretty clear disparity between the two power numbers for those two guys. For which two? For Tammy Edmund versus Nico Horner.

Nico Horner is more likely to hit for average. Yes. Yeah, I think that's fair. Tommy Edmund has said he thinks he can get to 40 steel, so if we're only given Horner 30, there's that too. I'm not saying he needs to go ahead of Edmund, but we're talking about between Edmund, Rosario, and Horner.

They do the same things generally well. Some do certain things better than others. And I certainly like the value of Horner more than. Slightly different flavors. While we've got a Cardinal player on the mine, Scott, let's kind of transition over to Lars Neupar here, who, as I mentioned, kind of feels like everyone's, favorite breakout hitter to this year.

Yeah, it's getting kind of hard to select him, at least when you're drafting with a bunch of analysts. I don't know that Joe Fantasy Baseball. I don't know that Joe Fantasy baseball is going to be reaching for Lars Neupar inside the top 120.

And you shun it. You shouldn't go for him that early. But if you just look at his ADP 192.2, I'd take him around 150th if I wanted him as badly as I do and not not necessarily wait all the way to 190 but I think New Bar is probably probably worth taking around 150th given the upside and this kind of sums up the upside for you here so why do we like Vinnie Pasquantino so much because he makes hard

contact with incredible plate discipline right Turns out Lars Nupar does the same thing. It hasn't showed up as much in the numbers yet, but he is one of just five players last year who was in the top 15% for average exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel rate and walk rate. Lars Nupar was. The other four, Aaron Judge, Jordan Alvarez,

Kyle Schwerber, John Carlos Stanton, kind of a who's who of the sluggareous sluggers in the game. And it's something that he has worked to do going back to the pandemic shortening 2020 season. He was working with driveline baseball specifically to increase exit velocity because when he was, when he first entered the Cardinals organization, Dupar had this great play discipline, but he just didn't impact the ball hard enough. All the work is paid off because he's starting to now. And there is the question of playing time.

He's a left-handed hitter. I'll be at one who hits left-handed pitchers well. And they're trying to find a spot for Jordan Walker on the roster. So between Newt Barr, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, how's that going to work? How are they all going to fit? I think it'll mostly be driven by performance. And I think Lars Neutbar is going to distinguish himself based on that performance. and because his on-base skills are so good,

because on-based skills are so valuable, arguably the most valuable thing a hitter can do. I think that gives him a leg up in the playing time competition as well. And he is somebody who I am happy to take as my third outfielder as often as I can because he's like one of the few outside my top 30 outfielers who I think has the potential to be top 20.

You're not just, conceding to mediocre production with. I think Lars Newport could be a lot more than that. And it sounds like the Cardinals had trade offers for Lars Newpar this offseason, and they shot them down. So this is an organization that clearly likes him, and I understand why. There was about a month stretch last year where Lars Newport was one of the hottest hitters

in the game. I mean, I remember we were all over it, free agent pickup, and then he kind of cooled off to end the season, but he flashed some of that upside. I put out a poll. The batting average was kind of weird during that time. Like it hovered around 240 even at his hottest. I think he was maybe a little bit too passive

because he still was walking a lot. Yeah. The strikeout numbers were good. But yeah, it was a little weird. So, you know, we don't have a good enough sample to know what Lars Neupar could be, but certainly the underlying numbers, certainly his hottest stretches are a reason for excitement.

And you know what? He runs pretty fast too. So maybe he's a guy who could be a sneaky contributor and stolen bases with, those expected to come easier this year. I put out a poll on our YouTube community tab, so if you're subscribed, you can check it out. Which young outfielder are you most excited to draft

between Riley Green, Lars Neupar, Jared Kelnick, and Brian Dela-Kruz. Lars Neupar currently leading 35% of the vote. Chris, let's come back to you for your next round of breakouts here. And it's two, I guess, this is the exact description we were talking about earlier. It's like two guys that have broken out before. They're in the middle of their careers. And you're expecting them to break out once again, Chris Bryant and Chris Hill.

Yeah, let's call them re-breakouts or something like that. Or just bounce backs, whatever. If you want to call the police on me, that's fine. I think the siren in the background, Chris. All the reasons we were excited about Chris Bryant having into last season are still there. Most notably, he is someone who has always put up quite good numbers, especially when you compare them to his expected stats. There are certain players who just outperform their expected stats.

If you looked at just expected stats and quality of contact and average eggs of velocity, you might think Chris Bryant's really not all that good of a player. However, over the course of his career, and it's been true when he was winning MVP's, it's been true when he hasn't been as good, he almost always outperforms his expected stats. So it's one of those things where I don't really care all that much that his quality of contact metrics weren't all that good last season, especially because he was dealing with a lot of injuries.

Now, he has been injury prone. He is 31 years old. It's possible that he just continues to struggle with injuries. And then I think the plantar fasciitis in particular in the second half of last season is a bit concerning because that's one that has a tendency to linger. I have dealt with plantar fasciitis on my own. Chris, if you're dealing with it, I suggest getting a cold beer bottle and rubbing your foot. across it.

It really helps. It makes it feel much better. And look, it's possible he's just like 130 games per season guy now. I really think Chris Bryant's a pretty good lock or pretty good bet for a very good batting average, whether that's $290, whether that's $300 playing half his games in Corsefield is really going to help. I think he's a good bet for 20 plus home runs. And, you know, it's not a great lineup.

But Corse Field helps make it look a lot better than it actually is. I think Chris Bryant's going to be a legitimate four category guy as long as he's healthy this season. All right, Chris Bryant, the ADP is 123.2. And he's going right around Taylor Ward and Nick Castellanos. Chris, I'm assuming you would take Bryant over both those guys. Easily over both of those guys. I don't really buy Taylor Ward's breakout last season.

That's not to say I don't buy it at all. I just, for most of his minor league career, he's been like a high 700s OPS bat, all of a sudden at like 25 in AAA, he starts putting up numbers. It's just a profile I tend to be pretty skeptical of. It's fine if you like him, but I prefer Chris Bryant.

And Castiano, I mean, I think if everything goes right for both of them, they'll probably put up pretty similar numbers. I feel better about Bryant just because he was better than Castiano's last season. Chris Brian is a guy I find myself drafting when I don't get as high end of a number two outfielder as I want

and it's just like, okay, he could be a number two outfielder if he just stays healthy, playing half his games at Coors Field. But that is a big if. I mean, sure, yeah. I wish they'd just DH,

Chris Bryant. It would be way too much money for a full-time DH, but it would obviously help our cause. Or I wish they'd just move him back to third base, especially now that they're moving Ryan McMahon to second because Brendan Rogers is hurt, but it sounds like that's not going to happen.

cards. Like, so I was reading, I think it was on the Rockies team site, how, no, that it doesn't sound like Chris Bryant to third base is going to be the solution to the Brendan Rogers entry. But then in the same article, Chris Bryant is complaining about how big the outfield is, how much running he has to do out there, and how that's probably not the best thing for his foot. And so I'm like, this doesn't add up. Like, if you don't, if you want to keep him from running, stick him back at third base.

Please. For fantasy purposes, we could use another third basement. That would be fantastic. Grass is softer than dirt than dirt though, you know. Yeah, whatever. Look, it comes down to the health. Bryant has missed 34% of his game since 2018.

So if he's on the field, I think he's probably going to perform quite well. The other name here is Chris Sale. Let me remind you of the timeline here. He had Tommy John surgery back in March of 2020. He was activated in August of 2021. He went back on the aisle with a positive. of COVID test. And then in 2022, placed on the 60 day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage,

return in July, fractured his pinky trying to field a comebacker, pack on the IL, and then fractured his wrist during a bicycle accident in August, out for the season. Chris Sale has thrown 48 in a third innings over the past three years combined. But in those 11 starts, he's actually looked pretty good. He's kind of looked like Chris Sale. Chris, the ADP right now is 158.2. I think Sale very clearly has the most ADP of any pitcher going outside the top 150. Yeah, most upside, I think is what you meant to say there. And I agree. What did I say?

80, most ADP. He has 158 of ADP. Yeah, and he's looked like himself in spring training so far. He's mostly looked like himself when he's been healthy enough to pitch. And for the most part, his injuries, the last couple of seasons, or at least last season, was bad. Look, Tommy John surgery, look, that happens. He's a pitcher. Congratulations to the people in 2007 who said Chris Sale was going to get hurt.

You finally got it right. But last season, like, he fell off his bike. And then he had a rib injury in spring training. I just, I don't really hold those things against him. Like, just don't, you know, don't ride a bike or wear wrist pads and you'll be fine. And he's looked really good in spring training. And he's five strikeouts in his first two outings. The velocity has been there.

He's been throwing mid-night. changeup was working for him today when he didn't have the slider. So that's a good sign. I just, I don't think he's going to have a Justin Verlander 2022 type of outcome. But it's very similar to that kind of situation where it's a veteran guy. We know if everything goes right, this guy can throw the 180 innings that you want from a high end starting pitcher. We know he's going to get a ton of strikeouts, even if he's not that good. Chris Sale always gets strikeouts.

And so I really think it's not that hard to see an outcome where Chris Dale gets back to 200 strikeouts is helpful in your ratio stats and is one of the 15 or 20 best starting pitchers in fantasy. I'm not saying I expect it. I kind of expect it, though, at this point. I kind of expect it to. Yeah, I mean, considering apart from the initial Tommy John surgery, these injuries weren't pitching related. They're just kind of fluky things that happened to him. I think, you know, people who push back on the. Because I have Chris Sale, I had him in Sleepers 1.0, the different classification.

The different way we classify sleepers and breakouts. Let's sail a sleeper for me and a breakout for you. Yeah, call him whatever. But the most pushback I've gotten is like, I don't want him. He's always hurt. And it's like, yeah, but it's not because pitching hurt him. You know, it's because bad things happen to him. And I'm starting to get, you brought up, you made the Justin Verlander comparison.

I'm starting to get that feeling now that he's pitching. a little in spring. Maybe the buzz is picking up for sale again. Last year, a great frustration for me was that I was one of the highest on Justin Verlander in the beginning, but then he gained so much steam in spring training that by the end, I wasn't able to draft him anywhere in most of the leagues that counted. I don't want to have that happen with sale. So I am planning to do a big rankings update tomorrow before the Tout Wars draft.

And I'm going to move sale up a lot. I think I might move him into my team. top 30. I just did. Like Hunter Green and Lance Lynn and Kyle Wright. I don't know that I can get a pass Nestor Cortez, but that's more the area where I'm thinking so that I don't miss out on him the way I missed out on Verlander and some of those later drafts last year.

I just moved him ahead of Tristan McKenzie, Logan Webb, Nestor Cortez. It's in that same range right around 100 overall. But I'm, yeah, I'm a big part of why I really like my pitching strategy. so far this season is that I can take my two aces early. I can wait until the 10th round or 12th round and end up Chris Sale, Dustin May, Hazel's Lazzardo. That's like a trio that I've done multiple times this year and I'm just ecstatic every time that happens. Yeah, Scott, you mentioned people when they say they don't want Chris Sale, they say, oh, but he's always hurt. You don't, look, I get it. It's a decent investment, but you could get them as your SP3, your SP4. It's not, it's not like years

pass where you have to invest a top 100 pick or he has to be your SP2. I mean, you can get him as your SP3 or SP4. So I kind of like it too. And you can get him as your SP3 if you wait. You know, it's not like you're taking a special around as a SP3 when I get it. Yeah, as somebody who doesn't draft a pitcher to round five for usually. All right. Well, a couple more breakouts for me. I've got Sean Murphy here. And just look at the numbers outside of Oakland. Now he's been traded over to Atlanta. Great team content. going from the A's to the Atlanta Braves. Outside of Oakland Coliseum in his career,

triple slashes 256, 334, 484, with 29 home runs in 166 games. Sean Murphy consistently barrels up the ball in his career. He made a lot more contact last year. I've made this count before. I think we can get a Will Smith Light-type season from Sean Murphy, 250 to 260 batting average,

low 20s in home runs, and decent counting stats for a catcher, obviously playing in the Atlanta Braves lineup. So the ADP is 133.6, going basically exactly the same spot as William Contreras. It feels like these guys are tied together forever because they were traded for each other. But I prefer Sean Murphy. Like, I would say pretty confidently over William Contreras at this point. I like Contreras, but thank you, Chris.

I don't know what's going on, man. Like my brain wants to say and read one thing and it does something different. So I wrote on the rundown, William Murphy. I don't know who William Murphy is, but it meant to say William Contreras. It wouldn't be as good a player as either Sean Murphy or William Petraeris. It's the worst part of both of them. So I like Sean Murphy. I will take him over William Contreras.

I got him in NL labor this past weekend for $18 and an NL only league. So it's a pretty funny. Murphy is a breakout as well. Yeah, let's do it, Scottie. And then this is another re-breakout in the same way that Chris Sale is. And it's Blake Snell. First seven starts, he was awful. Final 17.

It feels like he kind of does this every. year where he changes up the pitch mix and then he looks awesome again. But during that span, 253 ERA 111-11 whip, 12.9K per 9. I mean, those are the numbers that we were kind of talking about with Christian Javier earlier. I don't know if Blake Snell can keep it up over the course of a full season. If there's every year that he could, I think it's a contract year. And he pitches on a really good team.

He's going to get run support as well. So I am buying in on Blake Snell this year. Usually you can get him as my SP3 in the middle rounds of drafts. Let's take one more break and when we get back, we'll hit some news and notes, and we'll wrap up with a few more breakouts here on fantasy baseball today. Let's get to some news and notes. We had a lot happen over the weekend. We'll kind of run through these and go through our final breakouts pretty quickly as well. But we'll start with Andrew Painter, the unfortunate news. He underwent tests on his right elbow after reporting

soreness to the team on Friday. We haven't seen results yet. They were supposed to give those out on Monday. The fact that they haven't makes me feel like it's pretty bad for Andrew painter, unfortunately. Any interest in Bailey Falter as a deep sleeper, guys? In a deep league. He might be one of my last three picks in TGFBI, which is... I just took him. So... 450 players are drafted. Yeah, I think I took him in around 26 as my SP 8 or 9, so. Good minor league numbers was good over his last dozen starts or so last year. Bailey Fulter, I don't have the exact numbers. You know, not a lot of bat missing potential, not not a big stuff guy, but

has a pretty consistent track record between the majors and minors of pitching well. Even three ERA over his final 10 starts last year. All right, that is Bailey. That is Bailey Falter. Let's move over to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who underwent an MRI, which revealed

nothing more than minor knee inflammation. Chris, have you thought about lowering Vladimir Guerrero in your rankings at all with this news of a knee injury? I could easily lower him below, Eddie Freeman. They're one spot apart in my overall rankings. I haven't done it yet, but I could if this lingers. He's not playing in the world baseball classic. He pulled out of the team Dominican.

So they only have like 30 all stars on their roster now. But no, I'm not moving him down yet. We're still three plus weeks away from opening day. Chris, I know we don't talk a lot about like betting or anything here on the podcast, but I feel like team Puerto Rico has really good odds. It's USA and Japan and Domenico Republic and then everyone else. So I kind of just want to throw some money on Puerto Rico and see what happens. We got some guys. They've got talent, there's no doubt. Mike Clevenger will not face discipline for Major League Baseball following an investigation into domestic violence charges.

The ADP is 336.6. And I have to imagine that's going to move up now that we know there will be no discipline, no suspension for Mike Clevenger. Nick Gordon was diagnosed with a left high ankle sprain. He was seen in a walking boot and using crutches on Friday, and it sounds like he will miss some time. Dusty Bates Baker hates us all. The Astros manager confirms Sunday that Michael Brantley will bat second when healthy this season.

When healthy, that's the key words there. My best guess at the lineup, Altuvae, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Abraeu, Tucker, Pena, McCormick, Maldonado. That puts Tucker and Pena at 6 and 7, which is just baffling, baffling, but... It's where Tucker has been. Yeah. So if you've liked his production before, you'll probably still like it. But, yeah, batting higher in the lineup would be better for him.

You know, Tucker, obviously, he's a first round player. There's a lot to like. 71 runs scored last year, and part of that is batting lower in the lineup. Speaking of the Astros, Yordon Alvarez hopes to swing a bat this weekend. and he has been dealing with left handswornness to this point. Some Mets pitchers are banged up. David Peterson has been diagnosed with a left foot contusion and is considered day-to-day.

Jose Cantana has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib. So let's keep an eye out on this. It could open up an opportunity for Tyler McGill, or if Peterson's foot is fine, then maybe he's the fifth starter. It's hoping the season for the New York Mets. Aaron Boone indicated Saturday that Anthony Volpe, we already talked about that yesterday.

On Monday, Oswald Parraza was out of the lineup with a minor foot injury. Okay? Yeah. I think it's supposed to be back in tomorrow. Let's pay attention. Let's see what happens. The Rockies signed Mike Moustakis. I mean, my gosh, to a minor league contract with Brennan Rogers expected to miss extended time.

The Rockies have also talked about moving Ryan McMahon back to second, which you guys mentioned earlier. And then letting Nolan Jones and Elehurst-Montaro compete for the third base job. Obviously, we're talking about the deepest leagues here, Chris, but is there anything, Nolan Jones, Montero, Mike Mustakis, dare I say, for fantasy purposes? I mean, we're not that far removed from being very excited when Nolan Jones got called up. So, yeah, I think it's absolutely a situation worth watching. You know, he has some pretty substantial swing and miss issues, 33% strikeout rate in the majors last season, also had a 49% hard hit rate. And, you know, 461 expected Wobon contact. So it's the kind of thing where if he shows any growth in terms of his contact rate,

playing half his games in course field, it's possible Nolan Jones ends up being very relevant for fantasy. So it's the kind of thing I'm keeping an eye on in my 15 team leagues. We had some. Go ahead. I expect on Terra has the leg up in that competition, just because I don't know that they trust Nolan Jones defensively. Sure.

Has a basement. Yeah, that's fair. reliever moves this weekend. Will Smith signed a one-year deal with the Rangers, Jose LeClerc, currently banged up with a neck injury, and Trevor Rosenthal agreed to a minor league contract with the Tigers. Scott, again, these are very deep league moves, but any interest in either one, Will Smith, Trevor Rosenthal, and those bullpins? So I've seen some very fringe speculation that maybe Will Smith could become the closer for the Rangers, Jose LeClerc. I think he has yet to pitch this spring, because it sounds like, a minor issue, but to his neck.

I mean, Will Smith was pretty bad last year. Obviously, he has a history of closing. He was the closer for the World Series champions two years ago. But I would still much rather have LeClerc. It's just a deep league flyer taking Smith, I think. Jose LeClerc has pitched two innings this spring, but yeah, I don't think he's made any appearances since this neck injury has popped up.

It sounds like all three of James Paxon, Brian Beaux, and Garrett Whitlock will not be ready for opening day for the Red Sox. That would likely mean both Tanner Halk and Cutter Crawford will be in the rotation to start. Tony Gonsolin has been diagnosed with a sprain left ankle and will not make his spring training start on Wednesday. Justin Turner being treated for a soft tissue injury and monitored for a concussion after getting hit in the face by a pitch on Monday. So that was scary. Yeah, obviously hoping for the best for Justin Turner. It's a messed up situation. Anytime something like this happens. Notable performances

from Sunday and Monday, I wanted to mention quickly. Kodi Senga made his debut. Control was definitely iffy. He walked two in two innings and the fastball velocity, 96.9 miles per hour on average. All right, that's pretty good. That'll work. Pauldo Lopes.

Puck to 99. Nice. Pablo Lopez had a 44% curveball usage on Sunday. I did see some people tell me that this was like two different curve balls. It was a sweeper and a curveball. Either way, we know that he's, he has an amazing change up.

If the twins are getting some kind of curve or a new type of sweeper out of Pablo Lopez, I'm pretty interested, so I want to follow that throughout spring training. Chris Sale made his debut on Monday. He threw two innings, and the broadcast said he was hitting 95 and 96 consistently with the fastball. Jack Flaherty threw three innings, and his debut on Monday.

He picked up five strikeouts, though his velocity was down a little bit. He still has some time to build up. Shane O'Mack, the fastball velocity, 96.7 miles per hour on Monday and his second start. And guess what, guys? I am back. Here comes the money.

Here we go. Money talks. Here comes the money. I said all offseason, I needed to see something. Now we have two spring training starts worth of data. I want to see how the arm bounces back. Make sure he's all right. But for the most part, the velocity has been there.

He's throwing his breaking pitches. Been nothing but good news. I moved him back up. I have McClanahan as my SP7. He never lost Velocity last year, though. He didn't, but obviously the results were pretty bad, so I want to make sure. You're an easy sell, Frank, for somebody who was so sour on McClanahan. I said I needed to see something.

We've seen something, no? Okay. You've seen him continue to throw hard. I got you. Yes. Apparently, Noah Cindergarde was sitting 92 or 93 with his fastball again on Monday, and Chris, you said that we are out. We are collectively out on Noah Cinderg.

I mean, look, The thing with velocity is it stabilizes very quickly. But it is also just a snapshot in time. And so it's possible that he's working on something. And he said it was, you know, his mechanics were off. And maybe he figures it out. And by the end of the spring, he's averaging 97 with his fastball.

And there's glimpses of the former Noah Sindegarde. But based on what we saw last season, based on what we've seen so far, yeah, I think he's not entirely out of the main. league conversation, but he's certainly not someone I see myself drafting in a 12-team league. All right, we've got five minutes left in the podcast. Scott, you have 90 seconds to break down your final two breakouts, Reid Detmer's and Garrett Mitchell, and it is starting. I'll tell you when. Right now.

Not good with time to exercises. All right. So, Reed Demers, I think he can make the case pretty easily because he kind of already broke out last year. 12 starts before being sent down to the minors versus 13 starts after. So he works on a slider in the miners. He comes back. He's throwing it three miles per hour harder. The difference, 466 ERA before 304 after, 6.8K per nine before, 9.9 after. 9% swinging strike right before, 13% after.

Night and day difference. This guy is a great pick in the late rounds. You last pretty late usually. And then Garrett Mitchell, who I wanted to call a sleeper, but see, the nice thing about having sleepers and breakouts is if you can make the argument to push some guy off into breakouts, then, you know, you got a second place to put him. So, so Garrett Mitchell wound up being pushed to breakouts just because I had too many sleepers already. And what I like about Garrett Mitchell is that the Brewers really like him. I was concerned coming into spring training that maybe his job wouldn't be so assured. Maybe Sal Freelick could push him for the center field role.

And it just doesn't seem like that's happening. His first spring game, Mitchell Homer, twice. Not saying he's going to be a big source of power. His swing generates a lot of ground balls. But he does have raw power. But more than anything, it's that the guy can freaking fly, 80-grade speed, stole 10 bases in the little bit we saw of him last year. And if he's in the line up regularly,

I think 40 steals is a safe expectation. He has to hit enough to stay in the lineup to get there. But I love drafting Garrett Mitchell in those deeper rotisserie leagues to help make up for any stolen-based shortcoming I may have. All right, Scott, well, one minute and 53 seconds. So you will pay the price, which I haven't decided yet what it is. That's close enough. But you went 23 seconds over.

Grade me on a curve. Chris, you are up here, and you've got 90 seconds to talk about Hunter Green and a former Cincinnati red Tyler Malley. Yeah, I think the case for Hunter Green is pretty easy to make. Velocity tends to be a stand-in for potential, and there may be no starting pitcher in the history of baseball who has had more velocity than Hunter Green. His fastball wasn't actually a great pitch last season.

He allowed the third most home runs in the league on his four-seem fastball, but does throw 100 miles an hour with regularity, slider is already a wipeout pitch, a very, very good go-to pitch. And in his most recent spring start, he threw his change up 24% of the time. That is a pitch that he focused on in the offseason. And it doesn't even have to be a good pitch. If it just makes it so hitters can't tee off on the four-seem fastball, it just makes him even more dangerous.

I think there's a lot of risk with Hunter Green. Performance-wise, I think there's some health risk as well. But for the most part, he is someone who I just, I want some exposure to. for the upside alone. Tyler Malley, I think the case is kind of easy. 376 ERA on the road away from Cincinnati, 1.25 whip. He has to be better than those numbers to break out, but he's also healthy so far in spring training.

His velocity was fine. His most recent start, he was throwing all four of his pitches. And he's someone who has had an up and down career because he's had to figure out which pitches work best for him at which time, but the development of his splitter over the past couple of seasons, the slider's been a pretty good swing and miss from pitch for him at times. I think there's a lot to like about Tyler Malley and the fact that he's outside of Cincinnati makes me like him even more.

All right. I got the number wrong for Mitchell. Eight steals in 28 games, not 10. I can't believe you got that wrong. Yeah, how could you? I get a lot of stats wrong. It drives me. Unbelievable.

Thank you for clarifying, Scott. Chris, much better. You were at one minute 38. So you went over by nine. Not bad. Yeah. On today's exercise, you beat Scott. Take that, Scott. Last two names for me, and you can yell at me. You could say, oh, spring training.

What are you doing, Frank? I'm kind of buying it with Alec Bohm. We need as much upside at third base as we could possibly get. Maybe you'll argue he doesn't have upside. I think he does. He's added muscle this off season. Clearly wants to hit for more power this year. His manager, Rob Thompson, has said he wants to

he wants Alec Bone to hit the ball to the pull side more this season. With that being said, he's hit two home runs either to center or opposite field so far this spring. He's got three home runs. The launch angles up. He's consistently hit the ball in his career, hit the ball hard in his career. This is Alec Bowmer talking about. He makes contact in a really good ballpark in the middle of a pretty good lineup. Obviously not as good without Bryce Harper.

But I'm buying some of these early changes for Alec Bowman. I want to see them continue throughout spring training. I know you're hurrying here, but I do want to, one thing I, I, I, looked into on Boehm as if he was trying to elevate the ball more and apparently he's not he didn't make any swing changes he has elevated the ball more this spring but

it isn't a conscious thing that he's trying to do so the one thing I will say with regards to that is like when Christian Yellich was hitting the ball in the air more he said he never actually changed his swing and he said that his goal wasn't

to hit the ball in the air more it was like without Alec Boehm, try to hit more balls to the pull side, try to get in front of the ball. And the way his swing naturally worked, he would elevate the ball. Alec Boem is not Christian Yellich. He is unlikely to take a gigantic step forward and become a borderline 50 homer guy. But if he can become a 20 homer guy, I mean, that's right. If he hits 22 home runs with a 280 batting average, that's going to be a really good outcome.

Yeah. Yeah. That's probably, that's returning, you know, top 100, top 75 value. Right now, the ADP for Alec Bowman. is 184.8. And the other one is a name that we've talked about a lot. And Chris, I know you agree. It's Edward Cabrera with the Miami Marlins.

I had to debate which Marlin I wanted to use. I was going to go with Lazzardo, Cabrera. I pretty much like him. I like Trevor Rogers. We spoke about him yesterday too. Cabrera throws extremely hard 100 miles per hour on the fastball. Three secondary pitches with a whiff rate over 30%. He gets a decent amount of ground balls,

although that might not be the best thing anymore. He limits hard contact. the control, real problem for Edward Cabrera. You know, 4.1 walks per 9. That's obviously not going to cut it. But prior to 2021, Sandy Alcansara, four walks per 9. I don't think Edward Cabrera is Sandy Alcansara, but he can obviously improve.

He gets that down to, you know, three to three and a half walks per 9. Then we're cooking with gas here with Edward Cabrera. So where he's going as well, similar to Tyler Malley, I believe. leave. Let's see. You know, I went to third base. See, I should probably just leave it on one thing,

on overall. Edward Cabrera, 232. Yeah, so going very late in drafts and has a ton of upside. We are going to wrap there. For Scott to Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today. I didn't time myself, but I feel like I did a pretty bad job, so I'll just point that out. We will be back again. Oh, we interrupted you, so.

It's fine. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.