Fantasy Baseball Today - Breakouts 2.0! Plus Scott's Tout Wars Draft Recap! (3/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

LINK TO SCOTT'S TOUT WARS DRAFT BOARD- https://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/league/1ojcq64zltc8i9la/draft/board Breakouts 2.0 begins with Triston Casas (3:35)! ... Christopher Morel might finally have a place to play (7:25). ... This is the year Seiya Suzuki puts it all together (12:05). ... News (16:50): we have injury updates on Justin Verlander and Lucas Giolito. ... Jackson Holliday and Tylor Megill had big performances on Tuesday (30:07). ... Let's quickly recap our Breakouts 1.0 (32:45)! ... Bo Naylor and Jake Burger are ready to take the next step (44:30)! Nolan Gorman has huge power while Ke'Bryan Hayes is making adjustments (48:50). ... Why are the guys in on Kerry Carpenter and Kyle Harrison (51:30)? ... Chris added four pitchers to Breakouts 2.0 (55:05). ... Why does Frank like Gavin Williams and Brayan Bello (59:06)? ... We wrap up with Scott's Tout Wars draft, which was a 15-team 5x5 Roto with OBP instead of batting average (1:00:40). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Tampasball today on Wednesday, March 6th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, Breakouts 2.0. Scott just wrapped up his Tout Wars industry.

which is a 15-team 5x5 roto with OBP instead of batting average. And we will break that down later on. But Scott, you're fresh off the draft. Give us a quick, I don't know, one minute or less. SparkNotes version. How you feeling? I wish I was feeling better than I am. I think I got off to a great start and just kind of got off track in the middle.

I went really heavy at starting pitcher and outfield early, and then I ignored it for way too long, and now I'm going to have to pick up one player off the waiver wire to fill each of those spots for week one, because I drafted a certain number of injured players. They're infinite IL spots in TALs, so opposite end of the spectrum from TGFBI or NFBC where there are no IL spots.

So it's not as bad as it sounds that I have all those injured players, but it's not ideal. All right, well, we'll get to it a little bit later on. Let's start off with additions to Breakouts 2.0, which are almost all live on the site. My Breakouts 2.0. Chris's are there. Scots will be up next week.

And Chris, we will start with you, in addition to Breakouts 2.0, that you are most excited about. Yeah, I'm going to go with Tristan Casas, who the breakout case is mostly just do what you did in the second half. He hit 305 with a 996 OPS from July 1st on with a 40 homer pace. Just do that. The quality of contact metrics are all very good.

He was very good against lefties, albeit in a 97 plate apparent sample size. I think Tristan Kossis legitimately could hit 290,300. And I think he could be a 35 homer, 40 homer guy on the high end of his outcomes. Like this was an elite elite prospect coming into last season. He got off to a somewhat slow start. The underlying metrics always suggested he was going to break out. Then he did.

He doesn't really have too many glaring red flags in his profile. If I had to pick one, it's probably just that he's a lefty at Fenway Park, which is going to make hitting that homer ceiling a little tougher. But it's also going to make the batting average easier to, to hit. So I think there's a lot. of ways that this season turns really, really right for Tristan Casas. And I think there's a chance we're talking about him as a legitimate top 25 hitter in fantasy next season. The ADP for Casas,

according to Fantasy Pros is 97 as the 10th first basement off the board. He is going right around Spencer Steer. I assume we would all rather have Tristan Kossis over Spencer Stier, correct? Oh, yeah. Regardless of format, right? Yes. Cool. It doesn't matter the format. No. I did have Tristan Kossis and Breakouts 1.0. So I was ahead of you on this one, Chris. Well, that's why you couldn't steal him this time.

That's why I couldn't. But yeah, so I actually think he might be as well-suited for Fenway Park as a left-handed hitter can be because his power is so good to the opposite field. Like he's kind of Freddie Freeman-like. in that way. And in a few ways. That was one of the comps for him coming up through the miners and certainly had a slash line.

That was Freeman-esque in the second half last year. The biggest concern would be, are they ready to play him literally every day? He was playing more against lefties in the second half, but they have options that they could choose to platoon him more than we'd like if they choose. And the other concern, just from a strategizing perspective is I don't,

I wouldn't say Tristan Kossis is going for much of a discount. And that's not, I think, essential for breakouts discussion. But I have yet to have an opportunity to draft Kossis because one of my sleepers, Vinay Pasquantino, who I think profile similarly, I don't, not quite the same upside, but, you know, he tends to go three, four rounds later, So I wish I had more Kossis, but he's been kind of a difficult fit for me

based on where he's going, based on how others are valuing him. The batting average was lower against Lefty's last year for Kossis, just 215, but he did walk a ton against him, nearly a 19% walk rate. That's a 361 on base percentage. He had an 817 OPS against Lefty. So. His expected Wobo was 340 against them. Yeah.

The underlying numbers, the quality of contact was quite good as well. Yeah, so the hope is that he improves against lefties, gets to play every day, could have a huge season coming here for Tristan Kossis. Scott, let's move over to you, Breakouts 2.0. All right, let's go with Christopher Morel, who I didn't really consider for Breakouts 1.0. In fact, I had him buried in my rankings because I didn't see where the opportunity was for him in the Cubs lineup. They don't seem to like his defense.

He played a lot of DH last year, mostly DH. Their outfields, even before bringing back Cody Bellinger, their outfield appeared to be full. So I wasn't sure where the abats were going to come for Christopher Morel. But lo and behold, they've decided to make him their third basement. Way to go, Craig Counsel on that decision. He's still auditioning for the role technically, and I haven't heard many reports about his defense at third base this spring.

So there's a chance it doesn't happen, I guess. But that does very much seem to be the Cubs wish for him and the Cubs plan for third base heading into this season, considering that their only alternatives really are Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom, neither of whom we need to see more from. And I guess they could slide Michael Bush over there if they had to, but that doesn't sound like it's in the discussion. So it really seems like they're putting all their eggs in the Christopher Morel at third base basket.

And so what does that mean in terms of what he could do for fantasy? Well, his average eggs of velocity last year, 91st percentile, his barrel rate 95th percentile, his hard hit rate 92nd percentile, his expected slug 85th percentile. He's one of those hitters who you go to his statcast page, and certainly in the most important bars. It's all lit up in red. It looks like Steve Urkel's report card is what I like. It's a lot of red when he makes contact for sure. The contact is an issue, yes, but not.

It's like 30% strikeout rate. It's what we know in these modern times of stack cast readings. A hitter with his profile can overcome that strikeout rate because the quality of contact is so high. And you just look at his per game production over the last. two years. There have been some extreme highs and lows, very streaky hitter. And it's possible he slumped so badly that he gets removed from the lineup at some point, I guess. But

26 home runs in 107 games last year. That's obviously a lot of upside for fantasy. He had six stolen bases, too, for whatever. That's worth 82nd percentile sprint speed. So he could maybe have 15 to 20 steals,

at least a dozen. And he'll be picking up third base eligibility in addition to outfield. So, you know, I just had my Tower's draft, as you pointed out, Frank. I drafted Christopher Morel as my fourth outfielder in round, what was it, in round 15. And Rudy Gamble, great player for Razball, he said he had his eye on him there too. So there you go. Yeah, the comp we've made in the past, and I still think it's apt. is the sub-peak Javier bias season.

So not the year he almost won MVP, but the other years when he was like consistently in the, you know, 25 to 30 Homer rage, consistently in the low teens in stolen bases. I think that's the kind of production you could realistically expect from Christopher Morel. Yeah, the ADP for Morel, according to Fantasy Pros, 197.2

as the 47th outfielder off the board, going right next to another name that I know Chris and I both like. Not so sure about Scott, actually. Jaron Duran, Scott. Who would you rather have? Christopher Morel or Jaron Duran? Well, it depends if I need power or speed at that point, I guess, if I need batting average at that point.

Yeah, I have them right next to each other in my rankings too. There was, I saw there was something new about Duran's foot today. He left today's game with an ankle injury. Okay. Which was scary at first because he was like flexing. his foot during the at bat, but it's the angle, not the toe. Right. It was a third game back. No, yeah. And it sounds like he'll be back in the lineup on Thursday. That's the expectation. So no big deal. Yeah, I think it's just totally

a need-based thing. If it's a points league, you probably go Duran because Merrell strikes out so much. But yeah, they deserve to rank in the same vicinity. All right. In addition for me to breakouts 2.0, say a Suzuki, the ADP is 112.6 as the 26th outfielder off the board and he's delivered flashes of brilliance. We've yet to see it over a full season yet. So last year is kind of a weird year for Suzuki, delayed start to the season due to an oblique injury. He returned and he hit well through May and then just completely lost it in June and July.

A two-month span where he hit 212 with a 578 OPS. Then manager, David Ross, said Suzuki was quote in between with his swing. He got a few days off for like a mental break. early in August after that happened, all systems go. Final 47 games, triple slash 356, 414, 672 with 11 home runs and a 13% barrel rate for Say Suzuki. I think all the tools are there. Strong play discipline. He hits the ball hard.

79th percentile sprint speed. He has been very inefficient on the base pad so far, but he is fast enough to steal 10 to 15 bases. So I think it all comes together this year. hits 280 plus, 25 to 30 homers, 10 to 15 steals, and really helps you regardless of format, right? The plate discipline is strong, and I think he'll play up well

in a head to head points league as well. So I'm in on Sayas Suzuki and happy to get him usually as like my outfield two or maybe outfield three in a shallower league. Any thoughts? And my breakouts 1.0 as well. I'm glad you guys are seeing things my way now.

I'll just add on Sayas Suzuki. I mean, you mentioned how the late surge completely turning around to season long numbers. But in addition to that, his manager at the time, David Ross, said he felt like the turnaround was more of like a mental thing than like a mechanical thing or a physical thing.

Just like he seemed like he started to have fun finally. And I just wonder considering he was coming over from Japan where he was a star. And, you know, he was delivering. quality exit velocities his first year and a half in the majors. And it seemed like, okay, why, say is Suzuki not performing better? And it's just he finally got comfortable in a very different world than the one he was used to.

And if so, then I think that's all the more reason to think he could sustain it, not exactly the 350 batting average or whatever it was over the final two months, but something more along those lines. Yep. And put the money where the mouth is. I got him in NL labor last week for I think $20, so I'm in. Let's go. Say a Suzuki baby. Quickly promote a few things.

Make sure to sign up for our FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, that's cbsports.com slash newsletters. Click on that FBT logo, punch in your email address. It's easy as that. It's free. If you're watching us live on YouTube, scan that QR code that will take you right to the website where you can sign up. And Chris does great work.

So you want to support him, support us. Make sure to sign up for that newsletter. and a reminder that we are now accepting submissions for our two FBT listener league. So the dates for those again. 12 team head to head points league. The draft will be Tuesday night, March 19th. Some people have emailed in asking what time.

9 o'clock, 9 p.m. Eastern time. Does that sound good, Scott? We could draft at 9. Sure. For the listener league. I got nowhere to be. Just making sure. And yeah, so that's the 12 team points league.

and then our For the People Head to Head Categories League. That is a 16-team league that will draft one week later, Tuesday, March 26th. Again, probably around 9 p.m. Eastern Day time. Let's say 8 p.m.

That one is a 16-team league, you know? Okay. 8 or 9 p.m. It'll be in the evening. So somewhere around then, send us in something creative. Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I.

Put FBT Listener League in the subject line. Again, send us in a song. a Photoshop, a poem, just a reason why you deserve to be in the league, anything that you got, a funny story, whatever it might. Money. Yeah, that'll work too. Chris also went out and said that he will create a parody

of the best song submission that comes in. Do I have that right, Chris? Yes, send in some song parody suggestions with lyrics, and I'll go through them and I'll pick my favorite one and we'll get that person in. So, tailor it to me. 90s alternative rock is probably your best bet. I will announce the winners on Monday, March 18th,

so you have a little bit less than two weeks to get those in. So good luck to all, and we appreciate the support. Let's talk some news and notes. Another day filled with injuries. Here we go. Justin Verlander will begin the season on the aisle due to that right shoulder issue that he's been dealing with. JP France will be the Astros fifth starter in the meantime.

And we knew Verlander was dealing with. dealing with this. We didn't know he would actually start on the IL. Now we have that confirmation. Have you guys lowered Verlander in the rankings? I lowered him before this because I was, I think I was the most concerned about his shoulder. I'm actually less concerned about it now because it sounds like he's been throwing without any setbacks. He had a 60 pitch bullpen session over the weekend and felt no pain or discomfort afterward. He's just behind schedule. And so I think that. that creates a value opportunity.

In fact, this was something that kept happening in my Tower Wars draft. It's going to be a, this is going to be a one time at Band Camp kind of podcast, I guess. This happened so many times where I had a pitcher

I wanted Q'd up, and he was so close to come into me at Pick 15, and he got yoinked at the last second, and that happened with Verlander. He went too late. He went around 15. My gosh.

15. Could have been mine. Yeah, I think he went around there in my TGFBI draft as well. And I just think that's an obvious value. I get moving him down, but he's still like a top 1-25 pick for me. That's pick 2.25. Yeah. That's super late.

Yeah. I just picked him the round before. What was I doing? Yeah, he went in the 13th in the league I'm doing. I had him and Shoda Ikewed up. and they went the two picks before me. And love to get sniped in the 13th round. Sorry, Chris.

Lucas G. Lito has been diagnosed with a flexor strain and a partial UCL tear in his right elbow. Season ending surgery is a possibility. I'm thinking it's a little bit more of a, you know, probable outcome at this point, unfortunately. Brutal news for the Red Sox who just signed G. Lido this offseason. He was not drafted in Scott's Tout War's draft here on Tuesday night.

Updated Red Sox rotation. Brian Beow, Nick Povetta, Cutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Hout. Though they can easily sign one of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, they have been linked to Montgomery recently. Yeah, bad news for Gielito. Let's say they don't sign one of these pitchers. Any interest in a Whitlock or Tanner Hauk who seems maybe more cemented in the rotation now? I think they're both interesting.

I think Garrett Whitlock is probably more interesting personally, because I think there's a better chance that his stuff plays up as a starter. Howke is still sort of limited, I think, in terms of his repertoire. But we've seen, you know, pitchers with one really great breaking ball and then a pretty good fastball survive and even thrive as starters over the past couple of seasons. So definitely don't want to write Halk off. But no, Whitlock, and this might just be me. I've always been really interested in Whitlock.

He's got that really good change up. He's had some really good moments as a reliever especially. And so I'm interested to see what he does as a starter. He's got great control, quality of contact against him before last season had been really good. And so I think if you can get back to who he was in 2021 and 2022, I think Gary Whitlock has some upside. Howeck, according to Alex Cora, the Red Sox manager, obviously. He said that no pitcher has added more velocity on the Red Sox coming into this spring than Tanner Hauk. And he's performed well.

He had five strikeouts and three innings in his – I'm not sure if he pitched today, but his prior outing. And, you know, has had a 13% strikeout rate for his career. So I think there's – I think there's a lot to like there. But, yeah, if they bring in Jordan Montgomery or something, it's back to being a competition between Whitlock and Hauk. All right. Let's take our first break when we've returned. an update on Ronald de Cunia right after this.

Welcome back in. Well, here's the update on Ronald de Cunia. There is no update. It's just the same thing that we've heard over and over again. That's a little misleading, but the diagnosis was confirmed. Yeah. Yeah. That's basically it.

He has irritation in the meniscus in his right knee, is expected to be ready for opening day. He went first overall in Scott's Tout War's draft. This isn't just like water under the bridge. I do want to make that very clear. clear, like, there still is risk for re-injury at some point to this knee throughout the season. Maybe he doesn't run as much. Okay, he doesn't steal 70 bases.

Maybe he steals 40 or 50 instead. I think it's pretty close to water under the bridge, as long as they don't bring him back too quickly. That would, like, because there's not, it's not like this is, like, this is something that should just get better within two or three weeks. And so, you know, I'm not lowering his salary cap value at all now. Remember, we talked about the four different scenarios. Okay, these two scenarios, I might make it more like a $50 player than a $60 player. But no, we got the best case scenario. We got just rest for a couple weeks and be ready to go.

And as long as they allow it to heal and don't bring it back and risk an actual tear in the meniscus, then I don't think there's anything to worry about. I think it's, I mean, look, you're allowed to worry. but at some point you got a player who I've said before is worth two Austin Riley's I think you should stop sweating it so much and just enjoy putting your team together

with Ronald de Kuni at the top of it. Did you guys see that he pulled like a Willy Wonka at camp today? Walked up to the trainers with like a limp like using his bat as a cane and then kind of just started walking normally once he got closer to them. I appreciate that.

Got a sense of humor about it. That seems a little reckless, Chris. I don't know that he should be playing around. Well, he didn't do the whole tumble and cartwheel that Willie Wonka did. So it's okay. Yeah, that makes it okay. Let's talk about Sunny Gray. He's been diagnosed with a mild right hamstring terrain,

and it would be, quote, challenging to be ready for opening day. Zach Thompson or Matthew Liberator could fill Gray's spot in the rotation while he's out. And we spoke about this on yesterday's podcast. We'll be dropping Sunny Gray down the rankings a little bit. But has this changed anything for you guys, this diagnosis? Yeah, I mean, I just, I dropped him a few spots. Like I said, he would. I would.

I'm glad it's a minor thing. But, you know, it's a good chance he misses a turn or two, right? So you got to factor that in. Yep. Rangers manager, Bruce Bochie said he's hopeful. Corey Seeger will get some at-bats in the Cactus League before the end of spring training. Seeger's been delayed due to hernia surgery. he underwent in late January.

So it's not really much of an update here. It's just hope on the part of his manager. Dodgers manager, Dave Roberts, said that Walker Bueller won't begin the regular season with the Dodgers, but that the team hopes Bueller will start a Cactus League game. He was originally not expected to appear in any spring games, but perhaps there is more optimism now. So I don't know.

This seems, yeah, I think optimistic is the right word. It's a little bit more than the Corey Seeger report, I would think. with Walker Bueller. Yeah, I mean, I'm still not expecting him to pitch much in the majors in April, but now it certainly sounds like he's got a chance. But, you know, if he makes one Cactus League start, you think about the timeline, right? The spring training first starts usually come mid to late February, like 23rd-ish for most high-end pitchers. They're ready to go by, you know, April 20 or March 28th, whatever opening day is.

let's say he gets his first game in on March 22nd or 23rd, when they get back from Korea. That probably still puts him around late April as a return. And then that's pretty much how I'm treating Walker Bueller. He'll miss at least the first month of the season. Pirates top prospect, Paul Skeens, will begin the season in the minors, which we suspected.

Jaron Duran mentioned this earlier, exited Tuesday's game with left ankle tightness, but the Red Sox expect him back in the lineup. up Thursday. Cedric Mullins is still experiencing hamstring soreness and may undergo an MRI to establish a baseline for the injury. Don't love that for Mullins.

If he misses any time, we could see Colton Couser early in the season with the Orioles, who I believe had another multi-hit game here on Tuesday. Tommy Edmund resumed playing catch and hitting off a T on Tuesday. The plan is for Edmund to get back to hitting soft toss relatively soon, though a timetable for his return likely won't come until he faces live pitching

again. Did you see if he's going to be swinging from both sides of the plate? I did not see that in the report. That was the thing that I read last week that he was further behind from one side. I can't remember which one, but it was whichever one is more important for the risks that he injured. And like the thought was he could have played in games with one of them from one side, but not the other. So that's the one thing I'm going to be keeping an eye on there. Braxton Garrett will likely begin the season on. on the aisle due to left shoulder soreness. And apparently AJ Puck is a heavy favorite to open the season in their rotation.

Scott took him in Tout Wars. I took him in TGFBI. So let's go AJ Puck. You came at. That should mean Edward Cabrera has a rotation spot as well. I think there's now with Braxton Garrett, it's Puck Cabrera and Trevor Rogers who made his debut today and looked good from from what I saw.

We didn't have Stackhouse data, but he hit 95. according to him, all three of those guys should be in the rotation to start the season. And I think Puck, Cabrera, and Rogers all have sleeper appeal. There may be, like, I know Ryan Weathers had a good start last time out. I've got a bunch of strikeouts. There may be like a low percentage chance, him or even Max Meyer, could if one of those guys really struggles.

But those would be the three heavy favorites, I would assume, to round out the Marlins rotation, puck, Edward Cabrera. and Trevor Rogers. Yeah, Weathers was really good again today, four strikeouts and four shutout innings. He does look good, man. And we were out at first pitch Florida last weekend,

and our buddy Nick Pollock was pretty excited about Ryan Weathers, whose velocity is up the spring. And I believe he maxed out at 99 miles per hour last week. Wow, I didn't see that. Yeah, he was averaging like 98. 97, 98. No, I think he... 97, 98.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, around there. 97, yeah, maxed out at 99. So Ryan Weathers, I mean, How can a team have this many interesting pitchers? Man, the Miami Marlins, they got it, dude. It's like... Stallions. Stalions are back, baby.

Trade some of those guys for hitting, man. What are they? No, don't trade any of them. They all have injury risk. That's true. Yuki Matsui threw a bullpen session on Tuesday, his first since being diagnosed with back inflammation in late February, so a step in the right direction.

And Anthony Rendon reported discomfort in his groin on Sunday, and we'll be out through Wednesday. Well, the season is too long anyway. Love to see him. getting some time off. Probably good news for him. All right, I'm going to run through a bunch of notable spring performances that I wrote down here.

I'm going to read off all of them, and then you guys can quickly react to one or two things because we do have to keep things moving. Jackson Holiday went three for four with a double and triple. Three batted balls over 102 miles per hour, exit velocity. He hit the double off of Zach Wheeler, and it nearly left the park, nearly a home run off of Wheeler. My starting shortstop in both TGFBI and Tout Wars. Sorry, just wanted to put that out there real quick.

The dynasty teams are back. Here goes, Scott. O'Neill Cruz hit a home run with a 115 exit velocity. Evan Carter, two for three with a double dong, five RBI, both off Logan Gilbert.

Oh, I was leaving it out. They're on my, he's, yeah, Evan Carter's on my DGFBI and Dow Wars teams. Yeah,

I paused just, just for Scott to let us know about Evan Carter. Jose Barrios, three shutout innings with three strikeouts through a new cutter six times, which averaged

91.6 miles per hour, which is... I think this is really interesting. I don't know if it's a good pitch yet. Obviously, sample size, but he throws his fastball around 94 miles per hour. He throws both his changeup and his slider around 82 to 84. So the cutter gives him a completely new velocity band to work in. And so I think

that's a an interesting wrinkle for Burrios, who is probably still a relatively low ceiling pitcher, but it's interesting to see. Tyler McGill threw three no-hit innings with six strikeouts to two walks. He threw his new cutter 12 times out of 49 pitches and he had 10 swinging strikes three of which came on five splitters, aka the American spork.

Pirates pitching prospect Jared Jones threw two shutout innings and averaged 99.3 miles per hour on the fastball. He maxed out at 101. There is talk that Jared Jones could open the season in the Pirates rotation as their fifth starter.

Has big stuff in the minors, but bad command apparently. And we mentioned Ryan Weathers, four shutout innings with four strikeouts. We didn't have, I don't think we had Stackass data in this game. No, we didn't. Because you mentioned that with Rogers. But last week, the fastball velocity

was up to 96.4, and he topped out at 99, like we mentioned. So lots of names here, Weathers, Jared Jones, Tyler McGill, Berrios, Carter, O'Neill Cruz, Jackson Holiday. Anything you guys want to quickly touch on? I think we pretty much covered what I have to say on them.

I think Tyler McGill is kind of entering deep league late round territory sleeper appeal. I think Jared Jones is as well if it looks like he's going to make the rotation for sure. All right. Well, let's get back into our breakouts. And before we do breakouts 2.0, we'll quickly run through the names that we had in breakouts 1.0 for those who might have missed them. And Scott, you are up first. Give us the rundown, man. Who was in Breakouts 1.0?

All right. Well, I already mentioned Tristan Kosses and Sayas Suzuki were. Others on Breakouts 1.0, Royce Lewis, who again is probably priced out of where I'm going to draft him most likely. But I understand why, because, you know, it's not just that he had 15 home runs in his final 32 games, playoffs included. I mean, I think that's the starting point for it. But in between all the injuries Royce Lewis is had. Remember, former first number one overall pick here, Royce Lewis. So great pedigree.

Twice torn ACL, yes. But the consistency stands out to me. So he made five total stops over the two-year period in between his two ACL issues. and I'm not sure I have this number right. Hang on. I wish I was looking over this when you were going through the news. Okay. Yeah, anyway, he just consistently hit 300 with an OPS over 850 is my point. Throughout his minor league career.

And then obviously did what he did last year. So I think Royce Lewis is about to take off. There's Terek Scoobal, who of course gained a bunch of velocity last year coming back, like a mile per hour and a half on his fastball last year coming back from. the flexor surgery and now his velocity is up even more in the spring so look out what he did with that velocity last year

280 ERA impressive enough but 228 expected ERA and a 2 FIP those led all other pitchers with at least 8 innings led all other pitchers by the XERA by 72 points and the

FIP by 83 points so Terrick Scoobel was on a different planet from everybody else terrific strikeout rates, terrific walk rates, terrific job putting the ball on the ground too in limiting home runs. So I've said a few times before, he is my favorite for A.L. Say Young.

He's my pick for A.L. Sion going into this year. We've got the four standout sophomore hurlers, and you hear the most about Grayson Rodriguez and Yuri Perez and Bobby Miller. I would rank them in terms of order of preference, Perez, Greyrod, and Bobby Miller. But I think Tanner Bybee belongs in this group as well.

Grayson Rodriguez, Bobby Miller, and Bybee especially finished this season on a heater on their highest note. I mean, their final numbers look solid enough themselves. I mean, Tanner Bybee actually had the lowest DRA of the 4 at 298. I do think he has the lowest ceiling of the four in Uri Peres, the highest ceiling. That's why I rank them the way I do. But of those four Bybee is being overlooked the most. O'Neill Cruz, of course, basically all the same points I was making for him last season

prior to that gruesome leg injury. They still apply. He was kind of Ellie De La Cruz before Elie de la Cruz appeared on the scene. Just off the charts, Exit Velocity reading, still the owner of the hardest hit ball

and stack cast history is O'Neal Cruz and really cut down on his strikeout rates for the little bit we saw him last year in the way we hoped. Actually, it started in September the year before it got that strikeout rate closer to 30%,

which somebody who hits the ball as hard as he does, that gives him the potential to make a real impact in fantasy. Yiner Diaz taking over as the Astros full-time catcher. And terrible at drawing walks, so I think that creates some skepticism within the analyst ranks, but you just look at his numbers as the second string catcher for the Astros last year, 282 batting average 23 home runs, 846 OPS. His final season in the minors, Diaz had a 306 batting average, 25 homers, 898 OPS.

So he kind of just translated that production to the majors. And I think it's basically legit. He's kind of a weird profile with that microscopic walk rate. But I think for catchers, as far as catchers go, there's a lot of upside there for Yainer Diaz, Noel V. Marte, who I took in Tao Worse today. I was most impressed by him averaging 91.3 miles per hour on exit velocities after getting the call last year, his max exit velocity. two was, you know, top

five percent of the league. So he crushed the ball, didn't know L.V. Marte. And he also was six for six and stolen bases. So he showed in that short span of time, I think, monstrous potential. I think he has the most upside of anyone,

any of those up-and-coming reds hitters other than L.A. La Cruz. And so it's really just a question of how much playing time he gets at third base. There was a hamstring injury early this spring, but he seems to be passed it now. And I think he's fine.

Mitch Keller. It's a fun breakout candidate. Obviously, you just look at the total numbers. He collapsed in the second half last year. ERA finished at 421. But if you look at the game log, there were so many starts of his that were legitimately ace caliber. The kind of starts that are only accessible to aces going seven innings,

no runs, double-digit strikeouts, two hits, blah, blah, blah. He had four starts. They all came in the second half, but four starts all year, seven runs or more. If you take those out, Keller ZRA drops from 421 to 313. I'm not saying he'll never have a disaster start this year, but maybe it'll be one or two instead of four,

and his numbers will look a lot better. It'll look like an ace. Brian Hayes finally did the thing we were all wanting him to do last year, last two months, actually. His fly ball rate climbed to 41.5%. His pull rate climbed to 35.4%. both well above his career averages and, lo and behold, he had 10 home runs in that two-month span. If he can keep that going, Brian Hayes might be, he might be like a 30-15 guy, 30-home or 15 guy.

Best case scenario, but it's possible. Ryan Pepeo, with the improvements in control last year, 1.4 walks per 9 compared to 4.4 walks per 9 the year before. Obviously, the raise in an organization that knows pitching well saw fit to acquire him this offseason, and the Tyler Glass Now deal. So Ryan Pepio, I think, is a breakout. And last one here. Last one, Jared Kelnick. The Braves got him.

They jumped through a lot of hoops to get him, took on a lot of salary, that they then had to spin off to other teams. And they say they want him to play every day this year. He improved his splits drastically against left-handed pitchers and against sliders last year, the two big knocks on him previously. you know, still a lot of strikeouts, but a lot of upside for Jared Kelnick.

And a lot less pressure with the Braves, great supporting cast. I could see it finally happening for Jared Kelnick this year. Scott, that was an incredibly thorough breakdown of your breakouts 1.0, and I do appreciate it. But I really just wanted you to list them off and say like 10 seconds for each player. And you did like a minute for each player. But here we are. We still have to get to breakouts 2.0.

Chris, do you want to quickly list off your breakouts 1.0? I'm sorry. Or should we just get into it? Well, no, yeah, I'll run through them real quick. Royce Lewis, O'Neill Cruz, Terrick Scouble, Grayson Rodriguez, Yuri Perez are all also on my list in overlapping with Scott. I have Bo Nailer on my breakouts list. I think he could be the next kind of J.T. Romoto, like five category star at the catcher position.

I think he's got that kind of upside. Riley Green, he's my player that I love. I think Nick Castellanos with a dozen steals might be the upside here, and he's already, I believe, playing in games this spring, so that's a good sign. Yoshi Yamamoto, I don't know if, like, we can actually count him as a breakout, but, you know, it's an opportunity to talk about him. He might just be the best pitcher in baseball on a first run on a per start basis. I have him and Terrick Scoobel as kind of long shot first round candidates for 2025

in a column I wrote this week. So those are my breakouts, one point out. All right. I'll quickly mention mine. Bobby Miller, the same as all these guys. You know, he's on a lot of breakout lists this year. He is the one I like most. I think he's probably the most refined of the break of the second year pitchers

and plays for the best team. So I'm in on Bobby Miller. Jackson Trio and Wyatt Langford, I guess kind of cheating like they haven't played yet. So how could they be breakouts? I just think that they could provide excess value and be potential league winners where they're going in drafts. Michael King, we've talked a lot about Jake Berger.

the hitter that Scott loves wound up with him on his Tout War draft, hits the ball extremely hard and obviously made some big improvements in Miami last year. Logan O'Hoppy, big power from the catcher position, just need him to stay on the field. Did you see that report that Ron Washington said he wants him to play 135 games? Yeah, yeah, between 125 and 135 games. So could be a huge year here for Logan O'Hoppy. Jaron, we talk a lot about, I think he's going to lead off for the Red Sox and has a little bit of power, lots of speed, assuming that the, the, uh, the,

toe and the ankle are okay. Brian Wu, the pitcher I love this year, higher swinging strike rate on his fastball last year than Spencer Strider. Woo, let's go. Brandon Fott made some adjustments when he returned. Looked really good in the postseason. Emmett Sheehan, maybe you back off a little bit.

He still is not throwing. He's dealing with general soreness and might be delayed to the start of the season, but really flashed some massive swing and miss down the stretch last year. And if you're in a deeper league and you need pop later on, Nelson Velasquez and Matt Walner. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll run through some Breakouts 2.0,

and we'll wrap up with Scott's Tout Wars draft right after this. Welcome back in. Here we go. Breakouts 2.0. We'll just each cycle through here, and Scott hit us up with an addition. I know you haven't wrote it yet, but who are you planning to write about for Breakouts 2.0? It's true. I haven't written it yet.

I will say real quickly, since they were both in your 1.0. I guess I'm catching up to you guys now. Bo Naylor is in my Breakouts 2.0. And I think part of the reason he doesn't get hyped as much as maybe the Francisco Alvarez's and Logan O'Hoppies of the world is because it really took him a while to get going last year. But over his final 28 games, Bo Nailer hit 321 with seven home runs, four stolen bases, in exactly the same number of walks as strikeouts, 16 and 28 games. That's some really good production from any position,

much less from a catcher. He's kind of overtaken Mitch Garver, I think, is my favorite catcher to draft, particularly in one catcher leagues where he's often available in the very last round. And because his plate discipline is so good, and because he's a catcher who can steal bases, I think he's a great fit in both points and categories. league. And then I'll go ahead and talk about Jake Berger a little bit here as well.

He always had monstrous power, some of the hardest hit balls in all the majors. And it was just he struck out too much. So he's a very one-dimensional hitter, was struggling to get full-time at bats with the lowly white socks. But he goes to the Marlins. he hits over 300 he cuts his strikeout rate way down from that

I don't have the rates available here but it was like it he cuts it from like 30% to 22% and his batting average goes from 2.14 with the whites to 3 or 3 with the Marlins maybe it's just a two month fluky thing that kind of happened

he actually made he actually made an effort to tone down his swing because he realized he was overdue it. You didn't need to swing that hard to hit for power. And sure enough, even with that toned down swing, even with the exit velocity,

the average exit velocity lowered a bit with the Marlins. 11 of his 17 hardest hit balls last year came with the Marlins. So it really didn't compromise his power. It showed he could be more than a one-dimensional hitter. I think it's possible Jake Berger hits like 275 with 40 home runs. And his third base being is deep. deep as he tends to go like around 13 of 12 team leagues 12 13 something like that so uh always happy to wait at third base and part what i can get jake burger you know what comes to mind and and

it might might sound like damning with faint praise but i think he was actually a really really good player for a decent amount of time is mark trumbo you remember he was often a batting average liability he had one year he hit 268 with 32 homers had that 47 Homer season, which that would be ridiculous if Jake Berger got anywhere close to that. But that's the kind of player I can see Jake Berger being where, you know, Trumbo for his career hit 250, average 32 homers per 162 games. I think that's a reasonable comment. That's basically who Berger was last year.

I think if those changes to his swing hold, he can do better than that, batting average-wise, and still put up the huge power numbers. That's part of the reason I'm so high on him. I think the more likely scenario is the one you laid out. But I think there's a chance he exceeds it. The ADP for Jake Burger 166.6.6. As the 17th third baseman off the board, something to consider in points leagues,

the plate discipline is pretty bad. He does not walk much and he strikes out quite a bit, though he did lower it when he was with the Marlins last year. So keep that of mind. With Boehler, the ADP 238.4, 15th catcher off the board. Has been dealing with some back spasms, but he did catch a simulated game last week. So the hope is,

he's being built up, and it doesn't sound like he's in danger of missing opening day, but just keep that of mind and we'll play it by ear with Bo Nailer. Chris, let's go over to you. Maybe there was a few breakouts, 2.0. Yeah, Nolan Gorman is a player that I'm really starting to talk myself into.

I think it's kind of a 30 homer floor for him with, I mean, he could be like second-based Kyle Schwerber in a best case scenario. I really think his swing is really, really tuned to maximize power in a way that makes a 40 homer season a live possibility for him. It comes down to playing time, I think, but last season, he had an 841 OPS against lefties. His quality of contact numbers were very good. His strikeout rate was actually lower against lefties than it was against righties.

I really don't think this is a guy who should be platooning. I think Nolan Gorman should and, and will be playing every day this season. And I think the upside is incredibly high. You know, he was a little up and down, started off strong, went into a slump, finished really strong before. What was the injury that he suffered at the end of last season? He had a hamstring and then I think he had a back.

He's had a back issue that's been bothering him since 2020 at a weightlifting accident. But I read that he changed his nutrition this offseason to try and help alleviate those concerns. So, yeah, I think the. the upside is super, super high for Nolan Gorman in a way that, like, he might just be the best power hitter at the second base position this season. I also have Brian Hale, right? I think Brandon Lowe's right there, but I think Gorman has more raw power than Brandon Lowe. At third base, I added Cabrion Hayes to my breakouts, 2.0, everything Scott said about him

starting to elevate the ball. I think the other thing, and this is kind of, you know, more of a, scout slash eye testing, but I've always really like betting on a guy who is as good defensively as Cabrion Hayes is and has the physical tools to be a really good hitter. Obviously, you know, I'm not going to bet on, I don't know, Christian Pache to figure it out because he doesn't have the same physical tools maybe as a hitter. But Brian Hayes has always hit the ball really hard. He's always made a lot of contact and it's just been elevating and pulling the ball. And that's what he started doing last season. I think he's just. a real good ball player and then that's a profile that I think it makes sense to bet on. Do you want one more or move on? Let's see.

Well, you have Jaron Duran on the list. We talk about him a lot. Anything quick to me? You've kind of become the Jaron Duran guy. You're drafting him everywhere. I legitimately think he has 20 home or 40 steel upside. Jaron Duran does.

If he stays healthy, if he plays every day for the Red Sox, there are some questions about both, certainly, but he's going to hit lead off. 12 stolen bases and 36 games out of the leadoff spot for them last season. His max exit velocity was actually quite good. And I think his hard hit rate was like 70th percentile for Jaron Duran. Yeah.

So 112.6 mile per hour, max exit velocity. That's like 80th percentile. Average eggs velocity above average at 90 percent. Like he's not just a slot pitter. This is a guy who I think legitimately has potentially 20 homer. upside. At the top of a lineup, that could be, Jaron Duran could be a legitimate four category contributor in the top 25 player in fantasy. So I, I really like him as a breakout candidate.

I acknowledge there's some risk. Maybe I should probably stop taking him 150th when his ADP is like 240 or whatever, but I, uh, I really want Jaron Duran on as many teams I can. His ADP is 200th. All right. Chris, I completely agree with you on Nolan. I wrote him up in Breakouts 2.0. Another hitter I had was Carrie Carpenter is ADP 225.6 as the 54th outfielder off the board. Last year hit 278, 20 homers,

six deals in 118 games. He was 65th percentile or better in exit velocity, barrel rate, and expected slugging. Had a massive year in the miners back in 2022 where he hit over 300, 30 homers, a 1025 OPS. I think the Tigers are improving.

I think they're going to be better as a team, obviously getting some more sluggers into that lineup. Hopefully Colt Keith hits the ground running. Kerry Carpenter needs to improve against lefties to, like, reach his ultimate ceiling. But even if he's just a platoon player, I think he can have like a Eddie Rosario type season, like the better Eddie Rosario seasons, where he hit like 275, 25 plus homers and 10 steals. I think we can get that outcome here from Kerry Carpenter in 2024. Let's wrap up with a few pitcher breakouts because I feel like we haven't touched too many on those.

Scott, do you have any pictures you plan to add to breakouts 2.0? Yeah, Kyle Harrison. He kind of did this thing. You sound so excited. Well, I just, I'm realizing I'm not going to get a chance to talk about Jonathan oronda again, and I love him so much. And I never get to talk about him. But that's fine. Kyle Harrison, he did sort of the same thing.

I talked about Joe Boyle doing except over a longer span of time. walks were the big issue in the minors. He was considered an elite prospect, unlike Boyle, because the walk rate wasn't so ridiculously bad, and the strikeout rate was 15K per 9. He got to the majors, and he was throwing 65% of his pitches for strikes, which is good.

And it actually started his last three starts in the minors, too. So it's something that he sustained for a while to end last season. Now, the strikeouts weren't off the charts in the majors, and it seemed like there were some concerns that developed about his off-speed arsenal. But I've always said that the biggest indicator of upside for a starting pitcher is whether they can miss bats with their fastball. And Harrison's fastball is tremendous as far as that goes. He's put in some work on his secondary arsenal this off-season. It seems like it's gotten good reviews in camp.

And the Giants are slotting them in as their number two. So they're saying he's ready to go. I think he's being downgraded too much for his minor. league walk issues that he may well have overcome. All right, Chris, let's slide over to you. Breakouts 2.0. You have four pitchers on the list. If you want to give a quick thought on Bobby Miller, Cole Regens, Chris Sale, and Mason Miller. Yeah, I mean, Co. Regens, I think you can listen to literally any podcast since like last

August and hear the breakout case for him. We all love him. We're all expecting big things from him, 243. FIP over his final 11 starts once he got to Kansas City. He pitched like a legitimate ace. Bobby Miller weirdly didn't get a lot of strikeouts in the majors. Only 23.6% strikeout rate. It was 29.9% in the minors.

But you look at the Arsenal and it looks like every pitch should be able to get strikeouts. So I'm betting on the stuff winning out. I think he could absolutely be an elite strikeout pitcher through 138.2 innings last season. I don't really see any reason why Bobby Miller couldn't get to like 175, even on the Dodgers with the way they handle their pitchers. So I think there's a chance we're talking about both Cole Regans and Bobby Miller's top 10 starting pitchers next season. The other two, Chris Sale. He's made 31 starts since coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2021. Now, that's 31 starts over three seasons.

That's not great. But 393 ERA, 1.185 whip, 180. strikeouts and 151 innings for it. If that's all he does this season, he's a significant value and a must start starting pitcher for the 2024 season. I don't think that's the ceiling. His velocity has ticked back up this spring.

He's pitching in a great situation in front of a very good Braves team. He's going to have a chance for a lot of wins. I think he's just got to stay healthy. And the good news is he's currently healthy. So I think Chris Say, I know he's like 36. years old or whatever and someone's going to be like, oh, you can't call him a breakout. Yes, you can.

He's going to re-breakout. That's the whole point. It's fine. These are arbitrary labels. Chris Sale can be a breakout. I called him a sleeper, but that's fine. Yeah, I define sleeper as like outside the top 250 and 80p, so I won't include him there. But yeah, whatever you want

to call it, I think Chris Sale is a good value who's likely to outperform his current cost. And then my last one is Mason Miller, who I think people might start to cool on him because they've said he's not going to be their closer from day one. They want to test him out in high leverage situations. Let's make no mistake about it.

If Mason Miller stays healthy, he is going to be the athletics closer. And it's just a question of whether it happens before the end of spring training or before the end of April. I think it's probably sooner rather than later. I think before the end of April, Mason Miller will be saving games for the Oakland athletics. And now they may only win 50. So there won't be a ton of opportunities.

But I think Mason Miller could just be one of the best relievers in baseball, full stop. He is, he averaged 98.3 miles per hour working primarily as a starter last season with his fastball. He was above 101 miles per hour nine times in his spring debut last week. He hit 103. He has 107 strikeouts in 72.2 innings as a professional. He has only thrown 72.2 innings in like three seasons, I think. That is a concern. Staying healthy is a concern.

If he stays healthy, I think Mason Miller is going to be utterly dominant in a way that few relievers are. So even if he only gets 20 saves this season, I think he can be a top 10 relief pitcher in fantasy. Fun with small sample sizes, Mason Miller has thrown two innings this spring in two different appearances. zero hits, zero walks, five strikeouts. I just... 16 pitches, 16 strikes. I don't think you can overstate how dominant Mason Miller could be as a reliever.

Yeah, he could just be awesome. A few pitchers here for me, Gavin Williams, as the 51st starting pitcher off the board. He's kind of the forgotten former pitching prospect. He looks like an ace, six foot six. He throws 96 miles per hour with the fastball. Two strong breaking pitches with a slight. and the curve, both get whiffs, and both do a good job, limiting hard contact.

Read an article that he's been working on his changeup to help against lefties, gets a good amount of whiffs, 12% swinging strike rate as a rookie, needs to improve the control. Four walks per nine, 10.7% walk rate was in the 20th percentile. So that's why he ranks a little bit lower than the other second year starters, because we still need to see that improved control, but massive upside here, I believe, from Gavin Williams. Same thing with Brian Beow.

Former top pitching prospect, nasty sinker change-up combo here. Gets a lot of ground balls. 56% ground ball rate. That was third highest among starting pitchers with 150 innings last year and has been working on his slider with Pedro Martinez this offseason. And that's probably the piece. That's the key to the puzzle here for Brian Beow. I think he kind of wore down last year too.

His first 14 starts a 304 ERA, a 119 whip. second half, 549 ERA 149 whip. So a young pitcher, hopefully the stamina is improved, and he can carry that throughout the course of the season. But I do like Brian Bayo quite a bit. If you haven't learned by now, we're going to go a little bit long in this podcast because I do want to give Scott his due,

and we will talk about his Tout Wars team. It's my fault. I talk too long about breakouts 1.0. Yeah, it's hard. I should have been a little bit more clear. Let me pull up your draft board here, and let me get rid of this thing in the, top right so people can see your team, which is all the way on the right side of the screen.

So this is the Tout Wars Online Draft, obviously a snake draft, one of the longest running industry league, some of the best players out there. 15 team 5x5 roto with OBP instead of batting average. Scott was drafting from the wheel. 15th overall. And at pick 15, Scott, you started with Garrickole and Matt Olson. Two questions. Is that what you were expecting?

and why not Jose Ramirez or Bryce Harper to pair with a Matt Olson? That is exactly what I was expecting. Those two players when I said, when I signed up for Pick 15, that's what I had in my mind. I wore my Matt Lanna shirt here, in anticipation of taking Matt Olson there. And I wanted Garik Cole if you'd lasted there.

And it was no guarantee. I probably would have gone Olson and Bryce Harper, actually, if Garrett Cole didn't make it to me because I want it. There are only so many opportunities to grab those big OBP guys. I feel like it's essential with an early pick.

And so that's what I wanted. The reason I wanted the ace with him, because people will listen to the podcast a long time, no, that's not my general strategy to take a pitcher as high end as coal. But I think in these 15 team leagues, there's so many more people picking and so many more people who need a starting pitcher

at any given moment that it's really hard to do my intended strategy of taking four in the like 12 to 30 range, it just, they go too quickly for that to happen. And so if I'm going to have to settle for three of my top 30 rather than four of them, then I feel like I need one of them at least that's higher in than that.

And Coles seem like the safest way to do that because otherwise I'm waiting 30 picks until I get a chance to pick again and all the high-in-starting pitchers could be gone. Now, it turns out they weren't this time, which is why Terrible. Eric Scuba ended up being my third pick.

So Cole, Olson, and then Scoobel, it was just obviously the best player left on the board, particularly in a 15-team context like this knowing what happens to starting pitcher. So I felt like I had to take him. And then I went with Trout,

Mike Trout, in round four. I could have gone CJ Abrams if I wanted to address the speed need. And I probably would have if it was a conventional roto league, with batting average instead of on-base percentage. But CJ Abrams is like a 300 OBP guy,

and there are other opportunities for steals. I think steals are available for longer than quality outfielder are. So I thought it was more important to get the outfielder there in Trout. But yeah, through four rounds, I basically have no speed, unless Ron Washington gets his way

and Mike Trout starts running again. He could steal 100. That's what Ron Washington says. And, you know, Trout didn't shoot it down necessarily. So you never know. I always say stolen bases are a matter of intent. Ron Washington's trying to push run, you guys. Maybe Trout will buy in.

I don't know. But obviously you don't draft him with that expectation. Trout was still 96% on sprint speed last year. He has not really lost to steal 100 if he wants to. Absolutely. Could steal 100. I want to ask, so you took your first five picks. Get your guys, by the way.

I mean, you got Terrick Scoobel at the end of round three. You got Cole Regens at the end of round five. So obviously. Three pitchers in my first five picks. And I think that's worth stressing because I'm the only team of these 15 who took three pitchers, who had three pitchers after five rounds. If you're just talking, starting pitching.

I think there may be some if you include closers who did. In hindsight, what would you have, what do you like more if you started Olson and Harper, and then at the turn, at the 3-4 turn, you take Scoubel and one of, I don't know, let's say Framber Valdez or Tyler Glass now, or the way you kind of played it out, where you took Garik Cole and then instead you got Trout

at the 3-4 turn. Well, it depends when you're asking me, because if you'd ask me when I was taking Terik Scubal in round three, and I was thinking, oh, I wouldn't have gone Garrick Cole if I knew Terik Scubal would be there. But if you ask me at the, end of the draft, knowing what happened to starting pitcher apart from those first five picks, then I would say I'm really glad I took Garrett Cole.

Because basically, yeah, I take those three pitchers my first five picks, Cole Scouple, and Reagan's feeling great about my pitching staff, but no, I have a lot of ground to make up in the hitting categories. And I kind of just ignore pitcher for a long time and probably for too long. And, you know, I referred to it earlier. Maybe ignore isn't the right word. But every time I was thinking of taking a pitcher, I'm like, all right, this is the time I'm going to grab my number four guy. He would go. And I'd be like, crap, I don't want to reach for that starting pitcher.

So I should just continue to take the hitters I like. And that happened from round six through 18. 18. Yes. I think the one. was Zach Gelloff. I just agree. Zach Gelloff was the first pick I was really excited about

because I needed steals and I needed a second basement. I'm just looking at the guys who went right after him. Okay. Chris Sale and Ms. Keller. I know you like them both a lot. Yeah. So yeah, that was the one that stood out to me. Sale, yeah, I debated sale.

So, okay, so let me just build up to the picks before this. So Regens was round five, Evan Carter, round six, good OBP guys. Values elevated in this format. Jackson Choree on round seven, that was my first big steals threat. Carter should give some, but I needed to make up a lot of ground there.

And yeah, so I got three starting pitchers and three outfielders through my first seven picks and then Matt also in the first basement. So, yeah, I've hit the, I've hit the scarce positions that I want to hit,

and I kind of ignored both after that. So round eight was Paul Seawald, had to get in the closer, chase there. That always happens in these deep roto leagues. And then 9 and 10, I'm picking the back to back there. Vinny Pasquantino is there. That's pick 135.

Obviously, OBP specialist. No way he should be available that late in this format. So even though I had a first baseman, I feel like Pasquantino was a layup there. And then Gell off, yeah, I needed all the speedster second baseman were gone, and speed was arguably my biggest categorical need at that point. So it felt like a slam dunk too. I hated to pass up Chris Sale because it was value,

but look, I got three big strikeout pitchers. It didn't feel urgent at the time. It felt like I would be overdoing that part of my team. I think the bigger time when I, the one I'd like to have back is 11. So we go through 30 more picks after Gell-off. Comes to me again. I don't have a third baseman yet. Jake Berger is there.

One of the players I love, right? Got to take him. I kind of felt like I might be falling behind in the power categories too, even though I had Olson and Trout, just because I used so many of my early picks on hitters, on pitchers, but I was unsure because Berger's obviously not a good OBP source. If he hits over 300, okay, the OBP would be fine,

but he's probably not going to hit for a batting average. That high doesn't walk much. He should give me a power boost, and I needed a third basement, so I was like, felt uneasy about it, but I went ahead and took Burger and paired him with Jackson Holiday who looks like he's going to be

on the opening day roster and should be a great OBP guy in addition to other things. I needed a shortstop. I thought he was clearly the best one left. So I'm not regretting the holiday pick, but the Burger one I thought, do I really need to take Burger?

Is this really optimizing the pick or should I go with Chris Bassett here? Chris Bassett just seemed like the perfect pitcher to round out that stuff, to really solidify it as the elite staff in the league because he excels at the things maybe the other three I took struggle. He's not the big strikeout guy they are,

but good whip source, good win source, considering scuba pitches for the Tigers and Reagan's pitches for the Roy. It just seemed like the right fit, but I didn't. And again, that continued to happen throughout the draft. And what made it hurt all the more taking Burger in round 11 is that I still end up with no LV Marte in round 14. If you told me that was going to happen and I wouldn't like any of the pitchers available in round 14, well, then of course I would have taken Bassett over Burger, but you don't get that foresight and you don't know what the other 14 teams are going to do. And it turns out they just, they mostly kept taking pitchers trying to catch up to my early advantage there.

I don't know. And so my next starting pitcher, my fourth taken, was Kodi Senga in round 13. Could be a terrific number four, but when is he going to be back? And then I don't take another starting pitcher again. So that was Senga and 13. I don't take another one until when is it, Frank? Eric Fetty in round 19. Yeah.

So Eric Fetty, at least at the start of the year, will be my number four. And that's a little scary. And then AJ Puck will be my number. five. I do take Scherzer, who hopefully will be back on the early side of June. And there may be a point this season where I got Garrick Cole, Terrick Scoubel, Cole, Col Regens, Codicenga, and Max Scherzer all going for me, which will be amazing. But of course, attrition is a thing at starting pitcher, and there's a good chance that doesn't happen, too. So I just, you know, and other pitchers I got. So, yeah, we mentioned Fetty and Puck. I got Joe Boyle, who I like the

upside, but there's a lot of downside there, too. Kyle Hendricks is like, I wanted more of those, like, stabilizing innings eater types who just weren't going to kill me in ratios, since I got great strikeout guys at the top. But they just, everybody else took them before I could take them. Did you, when you took Senga, did you give any consideration to taking Justin Burtlander, or do you have Senga ranked ahead? Well, I guess you have a ranked ahead because you took him ahead.

Yeah, I did. And I could have gone back to back there. I guess in retrospect, I would have preferred if I did. But I, you know. Well, I don't think you could take both. I just taking an injured pitcher, right? Yeah. I'm not nearly as stressed about taking injury players.

I mentioned at the top in Toward Wars as I am in TGFB. It's so weird in those NFBC leagues where you don't have IL spots. And your bench could just fill up so quickly. If you're taking guys who are injured in the first place, of course more of your players. are going to get injured and you can really put yourself in a corner that way. It's not an issue when you got infinite IL spots.

I actually think the injured guys tend to be undervalued which is why I ended up with a couple of them. So yeah, other injured guys I took Tommy Edmund for not taking speed in my first five rounds I think I actually wound up in a good spot there with stolen bases but Edmund's not going to be available at the start of the year. He's filling my fifth outfield spot.

So I'm going to need to pick up somebody there. just like I'm going to need to pick up one pitcher. I got Robert Stevenson. I didn't get a true second closer to go with Paul Sewell. So Stevenson is my best bet for saves. Otherwise, there's a good chance he begins the year on the IL. You know, I got benchbats that I really like, Jackson, Merrill, Michael Bush, and Jonathan Oronda.

But I needed pitchers more at that point. And it's just I never. People kept taking it. him and I couldn't I don't know I had to reach at some point and I guess I wasn't willing to and that's the that's the always the trap of picking on the end especially when it's a league as deep as 15 teams that's exactly right Scott and I felt that in my TGFBI league where I'm picking 14th out of 15 teams and specifically when you're picking on the ends in leagues at deep you kind of

just have to throw ADP out the window and just think more about okay what what kind of run do I think is going to happen which is hard to predict but you might have to pull somebody up the board just to make sure you either fill a categorical need or a positional need. If you need the pitching, you might just have to pull them up. And that's kind of the game that we play when you're picking on the ends

in a league that deep. Can I ask you one quick question, Scott? Yeah, sure. Did you give any thought to Esther Ruiz in the 14th round? Not a one. He lasted so much longer in this draft. In my Tau Wars draft, which is also OBP,

he went in the 10th round. He went 14.3 in this one. I know there are limitations to his game. I know the OBP will be pretty bad. That's a really good price. Yeah. Now, I hope that the person who drafted him, you had L.A. de la Cruz in the third round,

that's probably overkill between the two of them, just because OBP could be really tough for those two guys. Yeah, I was getting so many steals. But. Yeah, I don't think I wound up in a bad spot with steals, like I said. And I've had so much trouble the last. two years in this league keeping up with runs and RBI like I do well in home runs

but I'm near the bottom and runs at RBI that I didn't want to stock my roster with too many Estuary Ruiz types who were just going to help in that one area. So I get what you're saying but it wasn't for me and that's not a pick I really regret.

A couple other things I wanted to raise here. So I took Eloy Jimenez in round 17 just because he lasted that so long. Love it. I already had Noel Marte in my utility spot at that point. So that was an example of like, ah, I wish I could have found it.

Like, okay, so I take Bassett instead of Burger. I got Marte at third base and I just slot Eloy Jimenez at utility. There's a chance. Eloy Jimenez earns outfield at some point and that could help with my need there. They're talking about he'll play right field sometimes this year. But I don't know, I don't know how soon that's going to be that he earns it. J.P. Crawford in round 18. OBP specialist

380 OBP last year So I think he's a good choice And I think it was a good Jeremy Payne went with the next pick I'd much rather have J.P. Crawford In this format My catchers were my very last two picks Jake Rogers and Travis Darno

So I went total dumpster dive there And I think I think that's a viable strategy If you're not getting the prices you like I mean it's hard for any catcher To make that big of an impact And in a league this deep you're going to have a couple positions

that just aren't really pulling their weight. I'd rather it be catcher than most any other position, I would say. And then there's one other point I wanted to make. Oh, it was this. So as I said, the draft's playing out, and I'm queuing up starting pitchers I like, and they keep going before they get to me. And I keep always thinking, okay, well, the next time I'll grab a starting pitcher,

the next time. And I think one of the ways I got in trouble here is just the speed of the draft. And I remember I had a similar comment last year. There was a minute-long timer, which is fine. It's what I'm used to. But so many of these drafters took so little if that one minute that it was hard for me to just keep up with crossing off names as they're making these picks. And so I didn't get a lot of time to kind of anticipate my pick or to think it through. I'm on the clock and suddenly I only have a minute to decide each of them

and I took close to a full minute every time. And so I think part of my issue was I was not seeing how quickly those globy starting pitchers and I mean globy in a good way this time. I could have stood to have a couple more globy pitchers to just kind of keep me safe there. And I couldn't, I was not seeing in the amount of time I had how quickly they were depleting until it was too late. So I wish I had one or two more of those. I especially wish it was Chris Bassett.

Trades are allowed in this league, and I'm seeing other teams have some corner infield needs here that maybe I could work something out. But, yeah, if I just had, like, really, if I could just go redo that burger pick and put Bassett instead, I'd feel so much better about my team right now. It could still work out great, but, like, I'm counting on Terrick Scouble and Cole Reagan's being healthy

and dominant all year, and if they aren't, then I could run into some issues. I just realized that while I had the draft board up on the screen, it was kind of like cut off and I didn't scroll down. So people couldn't see like the back half of your picks, but we talked about all of them. I will put a link to the draft board in the podcast in the YouTube description if anybody wants to check it out.

And Scott, I assume that you will be writing an article recapping your draft. I will probably saying a lot of the stuff I just said. All right, so if people don't need to bother with it. But just click on it. Click on it anyway and leave it up on your screen for a while. and then close it out. That's mine. Do it that way.

Make sure to read the article. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.