Fantasy Baseball Today - Breakouts! Is Madison Bumgarner Back!? (3/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 5, 2021

Let's get things started with our favorite breakouts this season (2:00)! Of course Scott loves Ke'Bryan Hayes while Frank has been targeting Tyler Mahle. ... As we move over to news and notes, Jackie Bradley signed a two-year deal with the Brewers (14:31). Adalberto Mondesi is also dealing with a foot injury while Nate Pearson has a groin strain. ... Is Madison Bumgarner back (23:20)!? Does Scott need to calm Frank down when it comes to Aaron Civale? ... We have Spring Training storylines (29:24)! Frankie Montas wants to throw his splitter more, Tyler Glasnow has a new pitch, and Aaron Hicks is batting third for the Yankee. ... Breakouts! We have all of them (38:46). ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Santana Forcus for cocked a jag Like Michael Walker Polanco and from Happy Cocoa Friday always gets me jazzed up For the podcast here Welcome into fantasy baseball today Two-Man Power Trip

Frank Stanful and Scott White And we have all the breakouts for you Today on the show Jackie Bradley has signed with the Milwaukee Brewers And Scott wrote an awesome article highlighting everything that is going on in spring training

So we'll talk a little bit about some of those nuggets that you found as well what's going on Scott? I found out just before the podcast that you're a tea drinker. You like the chai tea. Well, I prefer tea to coffee.

And I prefer soda to tea, but you can only drink so much soda, right? It's not, it's a lot of sugar. A lot of sugar, Frank. I already had my soda. This is the second podcast we recorded today because we got the Saturday mailbag that we recorded ahead of time.

So I had my soda then, I had the tea tonight. It's just going to get me over the finish line here. I hope so. It's a very busy time, and it's only March 4th. It's going to be a really long month. Keep highlighting 31 podcasts in 31 days. No, not all 31 are going to be done by us.

We do have some Danny Vietti and Will Middellbrook's podcast mixed in there. 27, Will. Yeah, 27. I would say that's enough in 31 days. So the main point of today's podcast will be breakouts. So let's start there, Scott. And yesterday, it took you a little bit to figure out that Trey Mancini was your favorite sleeper.

I hope it'll be easier for you to figure out who your favorite breakout is. So get us started here, Scotty. Yes, it will, because we can all say it in unison. 3, 2, 1, it's Keb Brian Hayes. Brian Hayes, yes. Cabrion, Capow. That's what he said with the bat in September last year.

Just crushed the ball. crushed it to all fields. Moreover, the fence of power, then he showed in the minors, had five home runs in his 80-something-at-bats, I think. We're talking about a guy who would hit like 13 in a minor league season. So, you know, that was eye-opening. He also had seven doubles, two triples.

During that time, 85 total of bats is what it was. I think he's a very safe bet for batting average, because the one thing, as he was kind of underwhelming with his minor league numbers, the one thing he did consistently was make contact at a good rate. And we knows he's a good defender. We know he can run well. I don't think he's going to be huge stolen base source,

but I do think Brian Hayes will be a significant source of stolen bases, maybe like 12 to 15. I should say a not insignificant source of stolen bases. That's significant. I know what I meant when I said significant, but it might be misconstrued is, you know, 12 to 15 steals is what I'm thinking. of Brian Hayes.

And so if there is any hope of him developing into a legitimate power hitter, I mean, that's a stud profile. To live up to his ADP, I don't think he needs to be like a 30 homer guy. I think just as a 20 homer guy, he's probably going to outproduce his ADP. But I think there's a chance that the power was legitimate. He hit the ball very hard, like I said. And I think when you have somebody who demonstrates the athleticism that Cabrion Hayes does and has the contact skills already covered,

like that's the sort of profile that in today's environment especially can find power very quickly. You know, even before the juice ball, that's kind of how Francisco Lendor developed into what he did. And it wouldn't surprise me if September was the. first glimpse of that happening for Cabrion Hayes as well. Cabrion Hayes, the top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I've made this comp before, Scott. I don't think it's crazy for him to get to an Anthony Rendon-esque season in Rendon's. I guess it was his first full year, but it was his second season. Back in 2014, you look at what Rendon did.

287 batting average, 21 home runs, 111 runs, that's very optimistic, but 83 RBI, 17 steals. 824 OPS, makes a lot of contact, hits the ball hard. I think that that is within the range of outcomes. Maybe it's like 90 runs scored because the Pirates lineup is not great, but definitely think it's possible. And I quickly pulled this up.

The NFBC ADP for Anthony Rendon entering that season was 240, and he came out with that kind of season. So that's, uh, that was a pretty great year for Rendon. Enough of that, though. Brian Hayes's ADP is 151.8, Scott. And I think that you... Go ahead.

I do want to say one other thing about him because you've seen Cabrion Hayes rise in some prospect rankings based on what was seen in September. So it's not just me... It's not just me out there looking at those September numbers and like, oh, he's a power hitter now. You look at MLB's prospect rankings. Cabrion Hayes is still in them

because he still technically qualifies as a prospect, only 85 of bats. They have him the ninth best prospect in baseball now and they upped his hit tool to a 60 and they upped his power tool to a 55. I mean that's a really good hitter that they're projecting him for now. Now, Baseball

America didn't raise their scouting grades for Cabraine Hayes like MLB.com did, but I've seen MLB.com do it. I think I saw some other major prospect evaluation site do it. Like, it's not just me saying this

is all I'm saying. And I think, I think Hayes gets dinged a little bit in the ADP, 151.8 right now, according to fantasy pros. It's not, he's not free or anything. He's not, you know, completely cheap. But you look at what his counterpart, his rookie counterpart, Alec Bohm, and his ADP,

is all the way up at 109.8. So he's going about 40 picks higher. And I'm pretty sure, Scott, you've said that you would take Hayes over Baum in a vacuum, right? Like if both are on the board, you would take Hayes? Yeah, I feel like Bome has bigger questions about his power production than Hayes at this point. They both have questions, but I mean, Bome had only four home runs and his 160 abats last year.

Hayes had more than that in about half the abats, you know? Which, again, it's not as simple as evaluating it that way, but Bome had questions about his power production coming up through the miners too. And clearly he didn't answer them in his debut. to, you know, he didn't change, he didn't change the thinking there with four home runs and 160 of bats. It's still something to prove.

I don't think I'm going to say like, Boehm's not going to be a power hit or anything, but it's still a question with him. Would you feel comfortable with Cabrion Hayes as your starting third basement? Yeah, I would. I rarely have to go that route because there's a lot,

there's a lot of starting caliber third baseman. And, you know, I usually like, like if Bregman or Rendon makes it to round four, I'm pretty much always taking one of them. But I'd be fine with Hayes as my starting third baseman. Yeah. I'm actually not able to draft in that much because in draft, I don't know if it's because I've made such a big deal of Cabrion Hayes

and people see him in there and they're like, oh, I got to get him before Scott does. But like, he's a player who I find I'm not able to get anymore because somebody reaches for him, at least going by ADP, somebody reaches like 30 spots higher than that. All righty. So Scott's favorite breakout, Cabrion Hayes, also the player he loves.

So very excited about the prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates. And I'm going to go with Tyler Malley, who I have talked about a few times already, starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, ADP all the way down at 192.6.

And he was awesome last year in 2020. He finished with a 3.59 ERA, a 1.15 whip, and the expected ERA for him, based on the quality of contact, 3.33. XERA as well for Tyler Malley. Lots of strikeouts, 60 strikeouts and 47 and two-thirds.

Endings pitched, 11.3K per 9. That was backed up by an awesome swinging strike rate, 13.8% swinging strike rate. Had he qualified, that would have ranked better than Trevor Bauer, Aranola, and Brandon Woodruff for Tyler Malley. And he changed his pitch mix up a little bit. He didn't use the slider at all in 2019.

He went for a curveball, and then last year he completely ditched the curveball. through the slider 33% of the time, and he basically just has this three pitch mix that I think after years of tinkering, he's kind of figured it up. Four-seem fastball, throws 94-95 miles per hour. He has this really great slider

that he uses a third of the time. He has this third pitch, a split change-up, which is actually a pretty good pitch that he throws 12% of the time as well. Again, this is Tyler Malley. Normally, I wind up with him as my SP5. I know, Scott, you like to get five of your top 35 starting pitchers.

I'm more so like to get, you know, four of my top 30, and then I'll wait for a little bit. I'll kind of forget about the starting pitcher position. And then this is the range that I jump back in. You know, right outside 180, 190, you know, 200. Once we get into this range, I'm just going to start loading up on a bunch of upside starting pitchers.

Tyler Malley is one of those upside starting pitchers for me. Yeah, he's in my breakouts 2.0 column 2. And I'm kind of, I'm kind of coming around to the, idea that like if you're I still want five of my top 35 but if I only get four of my top 35 then this I agree would be the range to jump back in

where like Tyler Malley is going I think Cory Klob is in that same range right Frankie Muntas they're all pretty interesting to me Monsas for what it's worth talked about how he he recognizes that is Splitters

his best pitch and he wants to throw it more again this year. Remember, it was the key to his breakout in 2019, and he wasn't thrown at as much last year. He realizes that, so that's good. But back to Malley. This is one of my favorite stats. I uncovered it when I was writing about him in Breakouts 2.0. I'm going to add it to my amazing stats column. So the issue with Malley being not really having that breaking ball right and relying so much on the fastball, he was limited to the short start for the Reds because every time he got into the lineup, the opposing lineup for a third time. They would just crush them because there wasn't enough pitch variety there.

So 2019, third time through the lineup, Tyler Malley allowed a 351 batting average in a 1004 OPS. Third time through the lineup, 2019. Last year, third time through the lineup with that slider, hitters were only two for 31 of him, the third time through the lineup. That is a drastic and dramatic transformation. It shows you how important that pitch is, in addition to getting more whiffs with it. It makes him a true starting pitcher. So, excited to see what Tyler Malley can do.

Yeah, Scott and I are both ahead of him in terms of ADP. Malley is the 57 starting pitcher off the board. According to Fantasy Pros, I have him up at SP 49. Scott has him at SP 51. So excited about one Tyler Malley. Before we get to the latest news and notes, Paramount Plus, which we've been hyping up for a while now, just launched today.

Well, technically March 4th, you're hearing this on March 5th. We're recording it the night before, but you get the point. You've probably seen the journey to Mount Paramount Spots featuring Bill Cower, James Corden, Patrick Stewart, Beavis and Butthead.

Yeah, it's quite the squad. But Paramount Plus is live sports, breaking news, and a mountain of entertainment. you can go straight from game day to movie night with Paramount Plus. Stream iconic movies like The Godfather Indiana Jones and Mission Impossible and new episodes of critically acclaimed original series like Star Trek Picard, the Good Fight, and The Stand. And get this, it's where you can dive into live sports from us, CBS sports,

including the NFL, March Madness, which is coming up, the Masters, and Champions League Soccerb, plus stream hit shows from CBS, Nickelodeon, MTV, BET, Smithsonian Channel and Comedy Central live sports, breaking news, and a mountain of entertainment. Paramount Plus is streaming now. Also, the draft prep guide is officially live. I know some people have been asking on Facebook and Twitter,

calling out my guy, Chris Towers, oh, but Chris said it's gonna be here. Patience, it's here, it's around, and it's for free. Download the CBS Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. It's a one-stop shop to help anyone dominate their drafts. It includes sleepers, breakouts, busts, rankings, analysis, and more. And it's written by all of us, mostly Scott and Chris, but there's some of my content in there as well.

And you can find it the link that you need to know, cbsports.com slash FBB draft kit. Again, CBSports.com slash FBB draft kit 100% free. You can sign up. Send it your way. All of our rankings, all of our salary cap values in there. You can use it to keep track of your salary cap. drafts, write down, you know, how much money you're spending, how much money you have left, all of this great stuff. So please go check it out. It's free. Why wouldn't you?

Lastly, our newsletter is new and improved. It features lots of stats and quotes that we use on the podcast. It really is just a podcast recap in written form. And I think that it's, you know, some people like to consume things by reading them rather than listening. We hope you do both. But if you want to find that, it's cbsports.com slash newsletters. News and notes. Mentioned it at the top, Scott. Jackie Bradley Jr. has signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, and he was low-key awesome last year. I don't think that we should put much stock into it

just because he was so much better than he ever was before. 283 batting average for Jackie Bradley, seven home runs and five steals. He's always had solid plate discipline. He'll strike out quite a bit, but a 9% walk rate for Jackie Bradley, I think is actually a little bit underrated. I didn't even realize that until I looked into the numbers,

but he walks quite a bit. And the one thing I will point out that he did differently completely change his hit direction. So I remember a couple years ago, this is what led to the breakout for Tim Anderson, started to spraying the ball

all over the field. Jackie Bradley last year lowered his pull rate to a career low 29%. So he opted to hit more up the middle and to opposite field, which as a lefty, you know, people are shifting him aggressively.

I think it really helped. So any thoughts on JBJ there in Milwaukee now? Yeah, it'll be interesting to see too, him just being a left-handed hitter. Fenway Park's a tough place to hit for left-handed hitters. Milwaukee's a great place to hit for all kind of hitters. Maybe he can emerge as something more. I mean, he has 20 home or pop.

He could maybe steal 15 bases. He hasn't been a consistent source of them, but we know he's fast enough to do that, and we know he's done that at times. I hesitate to call Jackie Bradley a sleeper in any real sense. but this is a good landing spot for maximizing his value. And we'll see. A guy who joined the Brewers last year,

and I thought was going to take a big step forward as a result, obviously, Al-Garcia, presumably this means he's out of a job now because Lorenzo Kane, Christian Yellich, obviously, in that outfield already. Kane's old, he could get hurt, and then maybe Garcia finds his way back in. But it wasn't exactly hype in Garcia this year anyway, as disastrously as 2019 went,

but yeah, he appears to be out of a job. Yeah, speaking of Lorenzo Kane, you said he's old, he might get hurt, Scott. Apparently, he already is hurt. He's dealing with, quote, a minor quad issue, but Craig Counsel reiterated today that Lorenzo Kane is the team's starting center fielder when he's healthy.

So I guess that puts him in center field. That'll put Jackie Bradley and left, and of course, Evis A.L. Garcia on the bench, unless by some miraculous miracle. Miraculous miracle? That doesn't make sense. There's a universal DH, which I don't think it's going to happen.

What's up next? What do we got? Framber Valdez, an update. This is Dr. Scott, I don't know, man. We might have to check your degree. I don't know. I was just going on precedent. I was just going on, you know,

examples I've seen up this in the past. Go ahead, go ahead. This is crazy. Per John Hay. He had this tweet on Thursday. The initial recommendation for top young Astro starting pitcher from Berra Valdez is for

surgery to repair his fractured ring finger and the early belief is that he could that could mean he'd miss the entire entire 2021 season. What? I just, I don't understand. And there's not confirmation from the team.

So, you know, I'm not doubting John Hayman's source or anything, but it's it's unconfirmed this report so don't go dumping from Bervaldez yet I've never heard of a player missing a whole season for broken finger and like he broke

his finger in the first inning came back and pitched the second so how broken could it be like it's not like the ball disintegrated it I don't I don't understand I really I don't understand I don't understand why even with surgery

that would have to be a season ending injury but I'm not a doctor. I'm not a doctor, so we'll wait and see. It doesn't sound good, though. Very disappointing for our guy, Bromber Valdez. I've never broken any bones in my life, but I don't think it works that way, Scott, does it? Because you were like, you know, how broken can it be? I broke my left ring finger.

That's the finger I broke. Oh, so you and, no wonder what you like Valdez so much. It was like this. It was laying over my pinky at like a 45 degree angle. It was broken. Oh, what were you doing? Funny story. Well, please do tell.

Sports-related injury, technically. So the Braves were on the verge of clinching the division title again, because this is something they often did. I was in 10th grade at the time, so this would have been 2000. The year 2000. and I wanted to check my magnetic schedule to see what the game was on so I could watch it and I was in socks

and I like ran and slid and caught myself and caught myself with my fingers pointed straight down so I landed on them. I heard this pop and my finger was not laying right over was laying like I said diagonally over the pinky at like a 45 degree angle

like oh this is not right this is not the way it's supposed to be it didn't hurt that much because I guess it just, you know, it was just too radical to really trigger the nerves or something. I don't know.

It just felt weird, you know? It just felt kind of numb. But yeah. I did not have surgery. I had injections on each side of the finger, which that was painful. But, you know, they put it back in place. I was in a cast for, you know,

I don't know, six weeks. and then it was fine. I love how you bled that story with, it was a sports-related injury. It was, technically. Suck it up, Framber Valdez. If Scott can make it through. I watched the game in the hospital, by the way.

Ozzy Gien hit a home run. I think it was a one-nothing game, and they clenched because Ozzy Gion hit a home run. Nice. Yeah, happy ending. You know what's not nice? Adelberto Mondesie, who was apparently dealing with a,

foot injury. He is progressing, according to manager Mike Mathini, but Monassie still has not made his Cactus League debut. We haven't talked a lot about this. It was underreported. I saw some, I saw some stuff about it yesterday. But yeah, he's, Monassie's dealing with a sore foot that he's sustained when fouling a ball off of his foot prior to spring training games actually starting. So, I mean, it's for someone that you're depending on for, at least 40 plus deal, Scott? You don't like to see this. No, you don't.

I was trying to, I'm sorry, I was thinking, I think it was actually 1999, not 2000, when that happened. But anyway, no, you don't like to see this for Mondecy. I don't know. It's not something that's really changing my view on them just yet, but something to keep an eye on. Reese Hoskins, who is returning from elbow surgery that he had last year,

made his spring training debut on Thursday. He went 1-4-3 with a... Did he hit a home run? Everyone on the Phillies apparently did. They beat the Yankees 15 to 0. But he did not. He just had a single, a run scored, and an RBI. He almost hit a home run.

I was watching that game. He hit one to the warning track. So again, that is Reese Hoskins. I think if he's healthy and he looks good all throughout spring, then we have a potential great value. you on our hands with Hoskins because his ADP right now is 155.8 and he was actually very good last year. So let's pay attention to Juan Reese Hoskins. Nate Pearson, the Blue Jay's top pitching prospect was diagnosed with a grade one groin train.

He has pitched just one inning in the spring so far with two strikeouts. He was consistently throwing around 99 miles per hour. So get well soon. Nate Pearson, we would like to see you healthy. Danny Santana signed with the Red Sox as a non-roster. invitee, Max Freed from your Atlanta Braves, Scott, was scratched from Friday start with COVID-related concerns. According to manager Brian Snitker, Freed didn't test positive for COVID-19, but the Braves fear he had, quote, potential exposure to an infected person. Freed is expected to remain away from camp

for at least a couple of days. That'll do it for the news and notes. But I have to highlight at least one performance, maybe another. You're going to have to keep me in check here, Scott. But we can't hype up only the youngsters. We gotta show some of the oldies some love too. And I wanted to shine some light on one. Madison Bumgarner, who made his spring debut on Thursday, two innings pitched, one hit, zero earned, zero walks, six strikeouts for Mad Bum.

Say what? Six strikeouts. Yeah. All of his outs recorded via the K. He had 11 whiffs on 33 pitches. His four-team fastball averaged 90.2 miles per hour, which doesn't sound great. by today's standards.

But the fastball velocity for Mad Bum last year was 88.6 miles per hour. So, okay, this has my attention. I will just point out the lineup that he was facing was dreadful. It was really bad. So I think that matters a little bit, Scott. But in all seriousness, Madison Bumgarner is free in drafts, and I like seeing the velocity being up for him. Yeah, I hope to see something similar for Patrick Corbyn.

I don't think he's made his spring debut yet, has he? Nope. But that's, it's something to keep an eye on. I mean, like you said, the lineup was dreadful. It still wasn't, it still wasn't like back to where Madison Bumgarner's velocity was two years ago, right? It was more like 91. Yeah. I think he was right above 91 in 2019.

Yeah. So, let's see more. I mean, it's the first start of spring training. If every start goes this way, then I think we'll see him have some helium, as they say. 91.4 miles per hour was a fastball for Madison Bumgarner back in 2019. The last time that he was fantasy relevant. He had a 3.90 ERA with almost a strikeout per inning back in 2019. The ADP for Mad Bum, 302.8, according to fantasy pros.

So again, free. You get it with the last pick in your drafts. Scott, I think what makes us such a good duo and what made us a good duo throughout the regular season last year was that I was always ready to overreact to stuff and you would calm me down. You would rain me in a little bit and you're really good at that

and I give you props. And something I said last year, which didn't work out so well, I remember it. It was Savali's first five or six starts. He was doing awesome. Tyler Glassnow was doing terribly and I said,

that's it. I will say it right now. I will take Aaron Savali over Tyler Glass now now rest of season. And right after I said that, They went in opposite directions, complete opposite directions. So I need you to let me know if I'm overreacting. Savale's debut on Thursday, three perfect endings with three strikeouts

while debuting his new short-armed delivery, which you remember for Lucas G. Alito, that's kind of what helped him get his career back on track. And on the same team, Zach Plesack also had the same thing last year where he shortened up his arm delivery. And there was a lot of people comparing side by side, the delivery of Police Act from 2019 versus 2020. And I actually retweeted a video from our buddy Nick Pollock over at pitcher list earlier, where he highlighted last year's delivery for Savali versus this spring delivery, which is new. And it's completely different. So I'm pretty excited, Scott. Yeah, I don't think it's insignificant. I mean, one of my, one of my little sayings is the

the smallest changes can make the biggest difference in baseball. Whether you're talking about hitters mechanics or something different of pitchers doing, it can be revolutionary. And this isn't the only change Savali's making. He also, I got this from George Bissell, who's a writer for NBC Sports Edge, which used to be known as Rodo World.

He writes some of the updates there. And he shared one of his updates for Savali, where he also pointed out that he's working on a split change-up which the movement on the split change-up is going to go well with the rest of his arsenal. I'm not somebody who really understands how that works,

but the movement that pitch will generate just by, it will pair nicely with some of his other pitches to potentially create more swings and misses that way. So, I mean, those are two small changes that could make a big difference for Aaron Savali. and he wasn't a bad pitcher before. I just think I didn't really see the upside for him.

I can see the case for him having upside now. It's, I moved him up a little after this start, just a little, just a little, like four or five spots in my starting pitcher rankings. Yes. Let's see more. Let's see how the rest of the spring plays out. But I can see him getting some helium. Is that how you say? Is that the right phrasing, getting some helium, having some helium?

Getting some helium. Having some helium. When a player's rising of the rankings, that's, I'm not good at jargon. I think getting some helium would make sense. Yeah, yeah. Getting some helium. So Aaron Savali is going to start talking like this

because he's getting some helium. That's what I was thinking. All right, so yeah, Savali and Tyler Mallee are actually going back to back, according to ADP. Savale at 191.4. Mallee at 192.6. So again, for me, try and get four starting pitchers inside those top 100 picks. Paddock's ADP is right around 100.

That's the car off for me. But he's moving up now, and I think rightfully so. So try to get four starting pitchers inside the top 100. And then jump back in in this range. Get Savalei. Tyler Malley as your SP5. Jameson Tion as your SP5, who we were supposed to mention as a sleeper yesterday. But yes, we do like Jameson Tyone.

Paneda, John Means, Nathan Ovaldi. Just load up on all these guys. and hopefully a few of them hit for your fantasy teams. Before we get to breakouts, I did just want to highlight quickly, Scott, some of the things that you wrote about in your spring training notebook. Really great article on the site. Go check it out, cbsports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Scott spent his entire night just digging into articles

and he found a bunch of really great tidbits. You mentioned the... I'm going to try it today. You mentioned the friend... That might be the last version of that article, just so everyone knows. Go read it. Enjoy it while you can. Enjoy it while you can. Enjoy it while you can. You mentioned the Frankie Montas quote that you found in this article and he says, quote, I feel like I was more focused on throwing my two seamer regarding last year. He added, when I have that good splitter in my back pocket, why not use it more? So I believe his splitter usage dropped around seven percentage points last year. Went from 19% in 2019 down to something like 12%. So I think it can only help if he gets back on track with that splitter.

So, Montas. Yeah, I mean, that was, that's what made him in 2019. It was really confusing why he went away from it. So as I said earlier, I'm glad he recognizes it. It's a matter of execution now. He's apparently still feeling some after effects from COVID, some chest congestion. It doesn't sound like a big deal, but that's something to monitor. It actually made me hesitate in our draft earlier tonight, our mock draft.

I took, I took Shohei Otani over Montas. you know, Otani's got a lot of helium too. But I'm not sure if that was the right decision. I'll have to think on that some more. The Blue Jays, you highlighted, may have offered a sneak peek as to what their starting lineup

is going to be in Tuesday's game against the Phillies. They had George Springer leading off, followed by Marcus Semyon, Bo Bichette batting third, Lourdes-Guriel cleanup, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting fifth, with Kevin Bigio batting sixth. And this quote,

came from a manager Charlie Montoyo. I like when he leads off like we did today. I like that, but we'll see. So, I mean, I can't imagine being good, being a good thing for Kevin Bizio, Scott. Yeah, because he was their primary leadoff hitter last year, and we suspected Springer would bad lead off. I just kind of thought everybody else would get pushed down,

but instead, Bigio's going to the back of the line. He's good at getting on base, So it's just they have a lot of guys the Blue Jays do that are good on getting on base. Just because this is the arrangement now doesn't mean it's going to be the arrangement all season. That's something to keep in mind. And I do think just from like a strategy standpoint,

if I was managing a baseball team, I would rather guy steal bases when there are bad hitters behind them as opposed to good hitters, you know? So batting lower in the lineup, in theory, should make for more stolen base opportunities. it doesn't always play out that way, but in theory it should.

So we'll see. We'll see. But yeah, overall, not a positive development for Vigio. I'm not really like moving them down any in the rankings based on this. He's already in my bust column. I already have my doubts about him. But this doesn't help. Ray's starting pitcher Tyler Glass now unveiled his new slider slash cutter hybrid on Monday,

quote, going to the lab with pitching coach, Kyle Snyder to develop it with the team's pitch design technology. Quote, I know he's pretty excited about it, and he should be because he feels like he can land that pitch for strikes. Fairly consistently, manager Kevin Cash said. So Tyler Glass now, we know typically just force him and curveball. He talks last year about trying to use like a splitter, change up kind of thing. It sounds like he's ditched that and trying to add a second breaking pitch here, Scott.

So does this make you more enthusiastic about Glass Now? Because I think you had him as overvalued. Yeah, I mean, it's more about will the raise let him pitch deep consistently enough? Will he have a chance to accumulate innings over the course of the season? I don't think a third pitch is what's keeping him from doing that. It can help with facing a lineup for the third time. But I think it's more just organizational philosophy of the raise to not push starting pitchers that hard. So it doesn't make a huge difference for me.

But as the beat writer for the raise, do you have his name right there? Do you have the column open? You could actually give the guy credit. As he pointed out. Adam Berry of MLB.com. There you go. As he pointed out,

when Glass now gets in trouble, it's because his curveball isn't working. He's not getting strikes with his curveball. And so having something else to turn to in those starts could, could make him more consistent. Yankees manager, Aaron Boone, plans to slot outfielder Aaron Hicks into the three-hole, which was reported the other day.

And Aaron Hicks is basically free. I know you talked about him a little bit, Scott, the ADP for Aaron Hicks, 276.2. He wasn't very good last year, but he was actually coming back from Tommy John surgery. I was watching the Yankee game the other day, and he had an in-game interview, and he said he's setting a goal for himself to hit 30 home runs. so I think he has enough power to do so it's never really a matter of talent for Hicks

he just needs to stay healthy he needs to stay on the field and if he can do that if he gets 30 home runs batting third for the Yankees his ADP is 276 yeah that's I mean if he can do that I you know he hasn't done that before so it seems like

kind of a stretch but just the whole like Hicks strikes me as a whole is greater than the sum of the parts guy because he's going to be he's going to contribute something in homers he's going to contribute something and steals as much as he gets on base, batting in the upper third of the Yankees lineup,

it's going to score a lot of runs, probably have a fair amount of RBI because he'll be batting behind DJ LaMayhew and Aaron Judge. And because the walk-to-strikeout ratio is so good for Hicks, I do think there are limits to his upside in

Roto, but in points leagues because of that strike-out-to-walk ratio. He had, he averaged 3.2 head-to-head points per game the last time we saw him healthy for a full season, which I think was 2018. Correct.

3.29 fantasy points per game, which was roughly what Kyle Tucker averaged in head-to-head points leagues last year. So because of those peripherals, he kicks excelling there, like there is stud potential, I think, for points league specifically. The last one that'll highlight here, Scott,

I wanted to ask you about specifically because you were very adamant about one James Karen check the other day in our relief pitcher preview, but I believe he started off his spring appearance with nine straight balls. Is that what it was? That's right. Yep. Yep. So are you backing off at all? I mean, it's only one appearance, but I mean, you know, he flashes some of the downside and his lack of control. I mean, as flashed it as brightly as he could, nine consecutive. balls. And then I think he allowed two, three stolen bases while trying to get back on track. He ended up striking out two, and I think it only allowed one run. But Terry Francona didn't

sound too happy afterward. So, I mean, obviously he has to win over his manager. I hesitate a little to take him now if it comes up. I still will take him if it's an obvious discount, which is really all I was talking about in the first place. But there's a little hesitation now in the back of my mind. Hopefully he writes the ship quickly, and we can hear some nicer comments from Francona in the future. Again, that is Scott's spring training notebook, which you can find on the site, cbsports.com slash fantasy.

Get it while it's hot and while it's still here. If you're watching on the video side, don't go anywhere. If you're listening on to the podcast, we're going to take a quick break. but when we return, we'll have all the breakouts right here on fantasy baseball today. Scott, yesterday when we were talking about sleepers, what did you say all breakouts are sleepers,

but not all sleepers or breakouts? How does that say, you go? Okay. That's it. Yep. Okay. Yep. The, uh, if breakouts are square,

if sleepers are rectangles, breakouts are squares. They're all rectangles, but not all rectangles. rectangles or squares. That is a factual statement. So where would you like to start? I figured we go back and forth on breakouts until I eventually run out. I know that you're not going to run out if breakouts are anything like your sleepers from yesterday.

Well, sleeper being so broad, you could pile more into the sleeper bucket than breakout. So I might run out. All right. Kick us off. Well, what are we both like? Joe Musgrove. Yeah. Big Joe.

Joe Musgrove. Joe Musgrove is finally figuring it out. So he went 106 appearances in his career without a single double-digit strikeout effort until the final two starts last year. Back-to-back, double-digit strikeout efforts. And leading up to that were a few things. His velocity jumped after a step.

on the IL for a triceps injury. So it was down early in the air. Clearly he was hurt. Comes back. He's throwing harder. He also started playing his slider off his curveball in a way he didn't before, really mixing those pitches up in a more optimal way. And with those two changes, Musgrove's swinging strike rate,

it jumped after that triceps injury to 14. Actually, I think for the year. Sorry, for the whole year, it was 14.4%. That was Musgrove's swinging strike rate. which was, it would have ranked in the top 10 qualifiers. If, you know, if he was a qualifier, it would have been top 10 swinging strike rate the same as you Darvishes.

And he's always been an elite strike thrower. So throwing strikes hasn't been a problem. It's if he can have legitimate swing and miss stuff like that, a guy who's efficient and we've seen him work deep into games with some consistency, it's just, is he able to, is he able to overpower the, opposition. And we saw the potential more than ever last year that yes, he can. And

that has me really excited. I know he's faked us out a few times in the past, but the signs of a breakthrough he was showing in the past weren't as loud as, in my mind, they weren't as loud as the ones he showed last year. Say it with me, Scott. Draft, Joe Musgrove. I've been saying... I didn't know what we're saying, sorry. We're not good at that. That's, that's, that's, that's not our podcast forte. We don't we don't chant very well. It's true. That is true. But for years, I've been standing atop the mountains, the Joe Musgrove Mountains, the Mount Paramount Mountains,

and just shouting to draft Joe Musgrove. And I feel like the year that I give up on him is the year that he's eventually going to break out. So I do have a bit of fomo. And I understand some people, they've been burned by Musgrove before. Why are we talking about this guy? He's never put it together over a full season. I hear all those things. He's got a career ERA over four. If you want to skip out on him, I have no problem, especially when his ADP is higher now than ever before. But you mentioned what he did over those final five starts. And we've seen, we've seen him perform well over, you know, these five start stretches at the end of seasons before. But, I mean, what he did specifically last year, Scott, you're right. I mean, it was different than what we've

seen those final five starts. He had a swinging strike rate over 16%. You mentioned what it was for the final five. Final five starts were just tremendous. One thing I will say to pay attention to throughout the spring, if you can find any type of velocity readings. Musgrove is much better when his fastball is sitting 93, 94 miles per hour versus at times, I think when he's not healthy

and he's trying to pitch through stuff, it's sitting 90, 91, you know, maybe around 92. But when he's up around that like 93, 94 mile per hour mark with his fastball, he is much better. And I will just highlight this. and I'm taking a little stroll down narrative street right now. But, and we don't talk about this a lot. Maybe we should more.

But I think there is something to be said for when a pitcher is surrounded by other really good pitchers, he can pick up things that maybe he hasn't, he didn't know before. I mean, look at the Padre's rotation. You Darvish, Blake Snell, Chris Paddock, Denelson Lamede as long as he's healthy. I mean, these are premier starting pitchers in baseball that have done, like, things that other people have not done. So if he can learn anything from those guys, too, pitching in his hometown, you know, his home state, California. I mean, look, if it's ever going to happen, I think it's going to happen this year for Musgrove. He just has to stay healthy.

He's certainly, you know, regardless of whether you buy into the idea that the other pitchers around him will help. He spent the past few years in Pittsburgh, which wasted so much pitching talent, I think just getting out of there. New regime for Pittsburgh, so maybe he would have been fine staying there too. But, you know, based on what he's been to this point, he wasn't getting much help from his organization. And just to tell you how excited I am about him, and I always am, and I've been burned every year. but in this great fantasy baseball invitational, 15-team 5-by-5 rotodraft that were doing with other analysts around the industry.

I took him at pick 112 ahead of Patrick Corby, Lance McCullors, Dylan Bundy, 6-0 Sanchez. I think I have to update the rankings, but I just, I want them on my team. So it's aggressive, but I think we can get a truly massive season. How about another one, Scott, that we both like as a potential. potential breakout. And he's going earlier than other names that we've talked about, but

Nick Castellanos, and we've talked about quite a bit already, but we'll just remind people that I think he is this year's Marcelo Zuna. You look at the underlying numbers for Nick Castellanos, and, I mean, specifically, the surface numbers, they don't line up with the expected stats that we see according to Statcast. Castellanos made, fantastic quality of contact last year, and he hit for more power than ever before with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds just had a weird season in general,

with all of their batting averages and the BABBs being down across the board, and Nick Castellanos was no different, but he hit 225 with a 486 slug. The expected batting average was 272. The expected slug was 539. 16% barrel rate for Nick Castanos. That was a career high for him,

last year as well. Also a career high was the strikeouts. So I think he has to just kind of get back to where he was a couple of years ago. He's normally 21, 22% strikeout rate. But Scott, I'm still waiting for it.

It's kind of like Musgrove, but I think that we can get this 300, maybe not 300, 280 plus batting average, 35 home run, just 100 RBI. Massive season. I still think Cassiano's has the talent to do it. Yeah, I do too.

I mean, you think when he first got out of Detroit, and the thing about Detroit is like, it is crazy deep and right center, so hard to hit a home run to right center. And that's where all of Castiano's fly balls go. It couldn't have been worse suited for him. So you think back when he first gets traded out of Detroit to the Cubs late in 2019,

and him hitting 321 with a 1002 OPS in those 51 games, 16 home runs. And you think, okay, obviously he got really hot. It was an unsustainable stretch. But you look deeper into those numbers with the Cubs. It doesn't look that sustainable. It looks like he finally got out of the terrible environment for him. Cincinnati, of course, even more inviting in terms of power.

And he delivered on the power with 14 home runs in the 60 games. Like we saw the power uptick. It's just career war strikeout rate. Horrible Babbit block. Like, as good as Nick Castellanos's line drive rate is, he should be, and he always has been, somebody who profiles for a high BABIP, and yet he had a 257 BABIP last year.

So the strikeouts normalized, the BABIP gets where it belongs, and I do think it's possible he's hitting over 300 with 35 plus home runs. And, you know, I've made the comparison, Nolan Aeronado. I think you made the comparison, J.D. Martinez. I think if we got a full 162,

games last year instead of 60, he would have ended up there. And by the way, in my first edition of the Spring Notebook, he said basically the same thing. So yeah, I think just because it didn't happen last year doesn't mean it's not going to happen for Nick Castiano's some good signs still. And I will just point out with the Babbitt, among 23 qualified hitters with a 25% line drive rate or better, Nick Castiano's 257 batting average on balls in play was the lowest of that entire group.

So I think we do get some batting average regression, positive regression, for Nick Cassiano's. I'll answer this question quickly. Trent McHale emailed in recently asking about Nick Cassiano and his swinging strike rate

and how the Cincinnati Reds were, their broadcasters were basically bashing Cassianoos a bunch last year. It was a career high, 16.6% swinging strike rate. But again, I think when you have a sample size

as large as his of him not being that type of hitter striking out that much, I think we lean on that more so than anything else. Scott, give me another breakout here that you're excited about this season. One you don't hear much,

actually, is Lance McCullors. And I think everybody just kind of has fatigue with him. because he still hasn't had, I don't think he's even had a 130 inning season yet because there's been so many injuries. But like, when he's pitched, he's pitched well. He's had the strikeouts consistently, a 10K per 9 guy.

He's been an elite ground ball guy. You know how much I love that combination. And last year, first year back from Tommy John surgery, he was kind of restricted in what he was able to throw. He ended up with a 393-year-old. A 116 whip 9.2K per 9. Numbers a little off from what we're used to seeing. It's still pretty good, you know?

But for most of the season, he wasn't able to lean on his curveball as much as he usually does. He's a guy who throws his curveball like 50% of the time, usually. That's the key to his success. It's crazy how much he throws it. And he wasn't able to do that until his last three starts last year. You know how those last three starts went from McCullors

once he got back to throwing that curveball 50% of the time? He had a zero ERA, a .62 whip, and 12.2K per 9. I think the best is yet to come for Lance McCullors, now that he's healthy again. The ADP for Lance McCullors, according to Fantasy Pros, is... Where is this guy? Just some. 126.4.

Going just ahead of him, Julio Arias. Who would you rather have between those two, Scott McCullors or Arias? I'd take a lot of guys over Ereus that are going behind Ereus because I do not trust Ereus's workload at all. I think there's going to be a lot of piggyback type starts for him with the Dodgers. How about McCullors versus Charlie Morton?

I'm trying to remember who I have it. I think I have McCullors ahead, actually. Yeah, I mean, that's Morton's one who could rise with a, if he looks really good this spring. but I think I actually have McCullors ahead of him right now. That is correct. You do. You have McCullors as the 36 starting pitcher off the board. Just ahead of Patrick Corbin, Charlie Morton, Sandy Alcantara, and Kevin Gosman. And those are your roto rankings, which people can find on the site.

A breakout outfielder, another one, mentioned to Cassiano's. And I talked about this guy a little bit before as well. but Dylan Carlson last year did not get off to a good start. His first 23 games with the St. Louis Cardinals, his first 23 games ever in Major League Baseball. He hit just 162 with four extra base hits and a 31% strikeout rate, 31% hard hit rate, excuse me.

So he wasn't making hard contact all that much. He was sent back to the alternate training site and he would return for the final few weeks. His last 12 games, Carlson hit 278, 7 extra base hits, 44% hard hit rate and in their three playoff games he batted cleanup in each of them.

It's probably not going to happen now that Nolan Aronado is with the team but I like the fact that he failed a little bit they sent him back to the alternate training site he worked on some things, made some adjustments and he actually bounced back. Not that he put up astronomical numbers in that final 12 game stretch but he looked pretty good

he looked like a major league ball player and he had a monster season in the minors back in 2019 one that I don't want to just forget about. 292 batting average, 26 home runs, 20 steals with a 914 OPS. I'm not expecting that out of him per se, but I think he can hit 270,

20 plus home runs, double-digit steals. If he's batting in the middle of the Cardinals lineup, which I expect at least fifth or six in the lineup, should get some pretty good counting stats as well. So I'm pretty excited about Dylan Carlson, probably more so in Roto or Categories leagues than in points, but I like him. Did we talk about John Means in the Sleeper podcast?

I don't think we did. We didn't. Because I was saving him for breakouts and do it. A lot of people listening have probably heard the John Means spiel by now. But, you know, for some people, this is going to be the only podcast they listen to. And so they need to hear this. They need to hear about how John Means gained two miles per hour on his fastball last year, how he was already an elite control pitcher in his 10-star.

last year didn't issue more than one walk in any of them. One walk was his season high last year. Throws a lot of strikes with that newfound velocity. Didn't it work out for him right away? But things suddenly clicked for him over his final four starts. So in his first six starts, he had an 8.7% swinging strike rate. It jumped to a Garrett-Colek-1.7% in his final four starts. when his K rate went from 5.4 to 11.4,

his ERA went from 810 in those first six to 152 in those final four. So what we saw in those final four starts is that John means business. And John is going to take those velocity gains. He's going to take that already elite control. And it's all going to manifest as this superhuman pitcher, the likes of which the Orioles haven't seen. I'm not going to do it again. I'm not going to say since Eric Bedard.

But Eric Bedard had one really awesome year for the Orioles. And John Means, I think, might have that in store this year. And he goes very late. He goes very late. Maybe it was just a mirage, those four stars. But man, that's a big jump in velocity. A big jump in velocity. And I'm excited to see what comes next for him.

Yeah, he's going super late. The ADP for John Means, 235.6 going just ahead of him is Chris Sale. I want to ask you about Chris Sale, but just ahead of sale is Zach Davies. Scott, I assume you would rather have John Means than Zach Davies? Oh yeah. It can be the upside. How about... Davies is kind of underrated, I think. I think he's going to be pretty stable, but I'll shoot for the upside with Means. Especially in Points Leagues. Don't sleep on Zach Davies in Points Leagues. How about Tony Gonsolin? John Means versus Gonslin. I love the talent of Gonsolin.

It's just the role. You don't know what the role is. Yeah, I actually had Gonslyn as a breakout before the rotation got even more crowded with the signing of Bauer. That spot that is not going to be opened up at any point because Bauer's in it. That hurts. I think Gonsalyn has, his stock has fallen enough that I still like, I still like drafting him, but I'm not.

not, there's breakout potential there. I'm not so, I'm not going to go so far as to say, I like him for a breakout this year, because I'm not sure when I like him to have a starting job, you know. Would you, would you take means over him, Scott? Yes. Cool. I would now, before I wasn't, but now I would. I'm going to quickly hit on a few more breakouts that I have in my breakout 2.0 article that you can find on the site as well. I want to mention Dominic Smith, some concern about if he's going to play every single day. National League. There's no D.H. in, you know, for the National League this year. But he's expected to be the starting left fielder for the Mets and at times is going to shift over to first base late in games

because he is a better defensive first baseman than Pete Alonzo. But I just think Smith is really talented. And since the start of the 2019 season, 139 games, Dominic Smith is batting 299 with a 937 OPS. And he actually performs well against left-handed pitching. So please, just Mets, don't mess this up because I can see them trying to platoon him. An 876 OPS against Lefties in 2019 for Dom Smith, a 900 OPS against Lefties just last year in 2020.

So just don't mess things up. I do like Dominic Smith quite a bit. Yeah, I see Smith sliding. Like, I'm ending up with Dominic Smith a lot because it seems like... People are nervous. People are nervous, yeah. And understandably, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that Pete Alonzo ends up suffering as much as Smith, you know?

Yeah, he can lose an ad bat here or there late in games if they take him out for defense. Well, I think it's possible that Smith just starts over him on occasion to get a real left fielder in there and to not take Smith's bat out of the lineup. I'm not saying, I'm not saying it's going to be a platoon between Smith and Alonzo or that Alonzo is not going to be. to be a starter anymore, but I think there will absolutely be days that Smith starts over Alonzo at first base. Come on. I got to end with a Yankee, of course, Clint Frazier, who has been named the starting left fielder for the New York Yankees. And really, the only concern that we've had is just, is he going to play every day. And it seems like now he is going to play every day. And last year. He only played in 39 games, but he hit 267. He had a 905 OPS with a 15.6% walk rate.

And, you know, obviously I watched the Yankees. I followed them very closely. There have been maturity issues with him in the past. And he was a terrible fielder in 2019. And I think he let it affect his hitting at times. And he just bounced back completely last year. I think he won a gold glove, actually. And I think this change in approach being more patient. his 150 game pace last year 30 home runs 100 RBI 11 steals sure Yankee Stadium in that lineup

going as late as he is which I will pull that up for you Clint Frazier right now is going at pick 180.8 so I do like it Did you say you want a gold glove? I think you want a gold glove

I think so is got you done it I'm on his base ball reference page. He didn't want a gold glove. Oh, he was. Gold glove finalist. Oh, was he? Yeah, he was a gold glove finalist. All right, so close enough.

But I mean, if you saw where his defense was... For a guy who was known for having bad defense. No, I am... Like, he reached base at nearly a 400 clip. He changed his stance last year in a way that both... It seemed to affect his play discipline, because he was walking a ton even going back to spring training. And it helped him kind of regain that legendary bat speed

that Brian Cashman talked about when the Yankees acquired him. I mean, the bat... He's a guy when you watch him hit, you actually can see the bat speed, you know? And he's... You know, he might steal some bases. He definitely has power.

I don't know. Like, he was a guy who his ADP didn't make sense to me at first because, like, he was their left fielder last year, and he was awesome. I think, you know, people forget he had that concussion in 2018 that plagued him all.

way through 2019 too so that really stalled his development but I think Clint Frazier has arrived he's in my breakouts too if I could give a couple more before we sign off here do it do it so you could make the case

these two have already broken out but they're not being drafted like they've broken out to the extent that it looked like they did last year and that's Zach Plesack and Kevin Gosman Plesack you could make a bus case for I get it I'm sure

Chris Towers here was here he would. But the fact of the matter is, Zach Plesack was the number three starting pitcher in head-to-head points per game last year, behind only the two Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber, and Trevor Bauer. Obviously, he's getting drafted nowhere close to that. And look, I'm not even saying he's that good, but I am saying he does something that very few starting pitchers

in today's game can do, and that's go not just six innings with consistency, but seven innings with consistency. See, he had the highest rate of seven innings starts of any starting pitcher last year, and it makes sense when you look at how efficient he was as a strike thrower. You know, he made adjustments to his arsenal,

became a better swing in miss pitcher. I get that it was only eight starts, but, you know, it's got to start somewhere, and you don't often see pitchers have an eight-start stretch as dominant as that and as many facets as Sack-Ple-Sack-dominated. So I think, I think he might break out as, you know,

somebody who we value on the level of like a Zach Allen next year. So, you know, not top five, but maybe top 15. I think that could happen for Zach Plysack still. And then Kevin Gossman, we saw a big jump and strikeout rate for him. His splitter was always a good swing and miss pitch. He started throwing it more. Memo to Frankie Montas. He started throwing it more.

And his swinging strike rate was just behind Garrett Cole. at 15.2% nearly 12ks per 9. He had, I'm not sure he ever had a K per 9 before that. The outings were short for the most part, so we got to see him extended more like a full starter. I mean, obviously he's had years where he was throwing six and seven innings in the past, but not with that strikeout rate.

They were kind of being careful with his elbow early on last year. But if he can get back, if you can sustain those gains as a strikeout pitcher and get back to his usual workload, I think Gosman is going to catch a lot of, people by surprise. I also have Nick Madrigal as a breakout for the White Sox.

Great contact hitter. Probably going to steal a good number of bases. And we'll be thinking of them as a pretty high end, the top 10 type second basement at this time next year. All the breakouts. There you go. In the book for Scott, I am

Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow with a bonus mailbag on Saturday. Bye.