Fantasy Baseball Today - Breakouts! More Yasiel Puig Thoughts (07/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 15, 2020

Oh do we have breakouts for you! First, we get Yasiel Puig out of the way (1:22). Where should he be ranked? Who is the loser in all of this? ... Speaking of Braves, how worried should we be for Fredd...ie Freeman (7:24)? He's starting to slip in drafts. ... The latest news and notes has Charlie Blackmon surprisingly landing on the IL (9:06) plus Jacob deGrom and Anthony Rizzo dealing with back injuries. ... Walker Buehler might be limited early on (13:10) plus Aaron Judge still isn't playing! ... In case you forgot, here's a reminder as to why JD Davis is Scott's favorite breakout in 2020 (16:50). Also, is it time to take Yoenis Cespedes more seriously? ... Why are Zac Gallen and Max Fried such popular breakout candidates (22:56)? Could either or both be this year's Shane Bieber? ... Here's why you should be drafting Nick Castellanos (27:00), even at his elevated cost. ... Who are Adam's favorite breakouts (32:05)? ... Why are we buying in on Kenta Maeda, Garrett Hampson, Eloy Jimenez, Ian Happ, and Alex Verdugo (38:07)? ... Lastly, some takeaways from our H2H categories mock draft (43:21). Why did Jose Ramirez go over Francisco Lindor? Where were the COVID players drafted? ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our new YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Starting point is 00:00:24 Last season, Raphael Devers, and Shane Bieber were the top breakouts in fantasy baseball, and both had an ADP outside the top one. Who are this year's breakouts? We're about to find out. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on a hump day, July 15th, Frank Stamphill alongside Scott White and Adam Azer. What's going on, fellas? How are you guys doing?
Starting point is 00:00:44 I'm good, man. I'm good. He's good. He's breaking out. Let's dispense with the pleasantries, okay? We never handle this part well. We're good. We can do better.
Starting point is 00:00:58 He's good. We can do, no. We can do better, Scott. Why don't we pick up our game? Scott, this is not something I excel at in just like, you know, day-to-day interactions with normal people. So how am I going to excel at this in like a broadcasting to the world sense? I don't think it's a reasonable expectation, frankly.
Starting point is 00:01:19 All right, Scott. We're going to get to the breakouts. You cannot be doing any better because your Braves signed Yassio Pueg. After the fact yesterday, Chris and I hopped back into the studio. the home studio, that is. And we gave a little update on Yassiel Puege to the Braves, but you and Adam did not have a chance to opine. So what are your feelings with Yassel Pueg landing with the Braves?
Starting point is 00:01:45 It seems like he landed in a spot where he's going to get to play every day as the left fielder. I guess maybe right fielder with the Kuna playing him left. That's still to be sorted out. And the player who obviously loses in this scenario is Adam Duval, which, you know, Adam DeVall is kind of an underrated player, I think, but he is not somebody that fantasy baseballers were really looking at yet. He had only recently come into playing time with the addition of the DH,
Starting point is 00:02:15 with Nick Marquakis opting out. So, you know, Adam Duvall goes back to the bench. Pueg is in the lineup, batting in the middle of a very good lineup. Austin Riley, I know there's some concern there. as long as Freddie Freeman is still sidelined by COVID-19, Austin Riley is supposed to be the Braves first basement. When Freeman comes back, I assume Riley's back to competing with Camargo,
Starting point is 00:02:41 Johann Camargo for third base. And by that point, assuming Freeman misses part of the regular season, we should have a pretty good idea whether Riley is somebody who deserves to be playing every day or not. And if he's shown he is, then obviously Camargo's going back to the bench. If he's shown he's not,
Starting point is 00:02:57 then I guess we're moving on from Riley. for this year, at least until somebody else goes on the IL. So, yeah, that's, I think, how things stand for the Braves. Pweig as a power speed thread, a pretty stable power speed thread, too. I mean, his production's been fairly consistent over the years. He's barely inside my top 40 in Roto. I have him just a little ahead of like Scott Kingery. And, you know, that's nice.
Starting point is 00:03:27 It's nice to have another potential speed source at that middle to late stage of the draft. And so it's good. It's good that Pueig has a job again, has a job, and is with a team that wants to play him and has a place to play him. Yassio Pueg was a top 30 outfielder in both formats last season. He was better in Roto.
Starting point is 00:03:48 He was the outfieler 25 in that format. And a top 70 player, three straight seasons with at least 23 home runs and 15 or more steals. And he's been quite consistent with the batting average. Not that he's been great, but between a 263 and 267 batting average each of the past four seasons. You mentioned where you moved him up to in your ranking, Scott. I moved him up to outfielder 33 in Roto, which might be a little aggressive. It's just behind Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwerber, and I moved him up to outfielder 38 in my head-to-head ranks.
Starting point is 00:04:18 Adam, what do you think about that in terms of where we have Puee kind of situated inside the top 40 outfielders? Does that make sense to you? I think you're too high on him, Frank, because, yeah, if it were, a normal offseason, that'd be one thing, but you're talking about a guy who is signing a week before the season starts. I know everybody's kind of not exactly facing live competition right now. They're just facing their teammates. So maybe that helps them. But I don't know. It just seems like tough circumstances to join a team this late in the game. I also wonder, I'll ask this from a positional standpoint, right? Ender and Ciarte will play center field for the Braves.
Starting point is 00:04:56 Yeah. Yep. So Adam Duval probably needs to play against lefties. He's not going to play against righties, but he's so good against lefties that I feel like he still should play against lefties. So what happens there? Does Enciarte sit in Acuna play center? Or does potentially tweak sit just to get Duval's lineup bad in the lineup? I think NCRte would be more likely to sit.
Starting point is 00:05:18 Acuna basically split his time, you know, made several starts in center for the Braves last year. It kind of depends on how NCRte performs, right? I mean, Enciarte hasn't been much with the bat the past couple seasons, but he was the few seasons before that. So if he's basically just a big glove out there in center field, then, yeah, I imagine he'll be sitting against left-handers and Duval would still be playing then. I don't think Pueig would be coming out of the lineup. He's a capable hitter against both lefties and righties.
Starting point is 00:05:54 Yeah, he's always going to be brought down by. his batting average. You mentioned it Frank. He's always going to hit around 265. It's not terrible, but it's just not that good. And then, you know, is he a 30 homer guy? He hasn't really been. He's never been. Yeah. So he maybe he is in this environment, but 50-ish players hit 30 home runs last year. So I think if Yassio Puig does not steal bases, he's 29, and those things can go, I don't know. If he doesn't steal bases, I think he's going to be kind of orderline junk. There are limits to his upside at this point. Yeah, like, for him to be one spot behind Conforto,
Starting point is 00:06:30 I mean, I view Conforto completely differently than Pueig. Schwaber makes more sense. He just needs to steal. If he steals, he's going to hit that. Because he gives you 15 to 19 steals or something like that per 162 games or whatever. Yeah, well, probably more like 20 steals per 162 games for him. Then he's going to be great. But if he doesn't steal, then there's downside there.
Starting point is 00:06:53 And he's not going to be not going to do that much. much with his bat, I don't think. Yeah, I would say a 25 homer 15 steel pace is fair for Yassie L. Pueg. I mean, it's pretty much where he's been at the past couple of seasons. He's never really lived up to expectations, but he's been solid. He's been serviceable. So yeah, maybe I'm a little bit too aggressive on him. I grabbed him last night in our head-to-ed categories mock. 167th overall that was just after J.D. Davis, Markana, Kyle Tucker. So I think that was a great range to wind up with Yassiel Pueg. Scott, I do have to add. you, I've seen some speculation that this Pueig signing could be a reaction to Freddie Freeman
Starting point is 00:07:32 missing, maybe not just the start of the season. I mean, we could be talking about a few weeks now. What would you say to that? Last night, he fell to the third round in that same mock draft, pick 32. So he is starting to move down the board again. That's Freddie Freeman. I don't, I mean, that's reading a lot into things, I think, because the Braves haven't just lost Freeman. They, you know, they had a DH opening to fill and then they lost Nick Marcakechus. And, you know, just the idea of losing Freeman when they did and not being able to count on him at the start of the season, I think, kind of opened their eyes to how quickly their depth could be depleted. So I don't know that I read as much into it as they know Freeman is going
Starting point is 00:08:14 to miss X amount of time. I don't think they have any idea how much time Freeman is going to miss. I don't think anybody does. It's possible he could miss the first several weeks of the season. and I think it's still possible he could be ready for opening day, though that's looking less and less likely with each passing day, of course. I think where he fell in last night's draft, the middle of round three, I mean, look, we were both in that draft. We didn't take him before then. I probably would have taken him if he last two more picks to me in round three.
Starting point is 00:08:41 I probably would have. So I think that's appropriate. Well, you know, things could turn around quickly. Charlie Blackman, his value was completely restored in last night's draft, now that he's back with the Rockies and looking likely for opening day. So that's just the way this is going to be. It's going to be a mysterious timetable and as short as the season is, you have to be cautious with it, but it can change on a dime.
Starting point is 00:09:06 Okay, so unless I saw a false report, I saw that Charlie Blackman was placed on the IEL today. He may have been. So I don't know, which is surprising, because he came back and he was in camp, and I saw a video of him swinging the bat and he seemed fine. And then today he was placed on the IL. I mean, I know Deshields came back and the line of the shields of the Indians came back
Starting point is 00:09:30 and was placed on the IL. I am not seeing an update of Blackman on the IL. And I think the COVID IL, they call it a 10-day IL, but you don't actually have to be on it 10 days, right? You can come off at any point. Like maybe it's retroactive to him missing time. so maybe it just kind of gives them the ability to maneuver their roster around. Let me see if I can find, because I don't see it there.
Starting point is 00:09:56 Okay, I see it here. Always just go to Twitter. Twitter knows everything, right? Yeah, I see multiple outlets on Twitter regarding Charlie Blackman going back on the IL. So that was going to be part of our news items, which I was going to get into right now. But, you know, look, if Charlie Blackman is on the IL and is not expected to be ready for the start of the season, I think that that just entrenched someone like Sam Hilliard in the lineup,
Starting point is 00:10:22 someone who were pretty excited about, David Dahl as well, obviously. Dare I say Matt Kemp? I read an article on The Athletic last night where they were talking to Matt Kemp now with the Rockies, so it would not surprise me based on the way that the Rockies have trended the past couple of seasons. Yeah, I couldn't care less.
Starting point is 00:10:41 What park he's playing at with Matt Kemp. This is really weird and needs to be sort of investigated. I guess we'll know more on tomorrow's show about Charlie Blackman. But it is weird that they did put him on the IL. I'm hoping it's a roster management sort of thing. Yeah, we'll pay close attention to it and see what happens. Matt Kemp, only one year removed from an 818 OPS with the Dodgers. So I'll just throw the name out there for deeper leagues.
Starting point is 00:11:06 Jacob de Grom was the big news last night that came out. He left with back tightness. And it was just announced that he's going for an MRI today. He has dealt with back issues in the past. Most recently, he missed opening day. in 2018. What happened that season? Well, he just went on
Starting point is 00:11:20 to win the Cy Young. So I don't know that we should overreact too much yet, but for the entire offseason, Scott, I was team DeGrom over Garrett Cole and Roto. This is enough for me to just make that switch.
Starting point is 00:11:33 So for whatever that's worth. Yeah, it's another situation where we're going to know a lot more very soon. And I could say that more definitively, but it does. You know, if there's any lingering health issue heading into the season,
Starting point is 00:11:52 and two players are that closed, I think it makes sense to flip them around, sure. And MRI was taking last night on Anthony Rizzo's back, and it revealed that he has rib-head inflammation. It's not clear whether he'll be ready to go for opening day, which is next Friday for the Cubs against the Milwaukee Brewers. So Anthony Rizzo, you're not moving him down yet either, Scott. I haven't yet. I'm going to make a lot of changes on Friday probably,
Starting point is 00:12:22 heading into the big draft weekend and kind of get a feel for how things look then. Because, yeah, it's all, it's all, it's all very unclear right now. Rizzo's one of the most boring players in fantasy. So if you just don't want to draft him, which is where I come, which is where I come down on it, this is more reason not to. He's definitely somewhat exciting in points leagues, but in a roto league, he's just boring. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:53 I do not have any Rizzo. Yeah, he is your basic, right? I don't know. Like, he's not going to win you your league. So, all right, you just, you can avoid him if you want. He's like Jose Ibrayu, except more boring at a higher cost. So why would you draft Anthony Rizzo? When you're going to have Jose Abraeu?
Starting point is 00:13:10 Walker Bueller is behind the other Dodgers pitchers. He is slated to throw two in his next appearance. he's one starting pitcher who I don't think will be ready to throw five or six innings, you know, around opening day heading into the first week of the season. And you hear Garrett Cole going deep into these intra-squad starts and some other starting pitchers. Walker Bueller is not one of those, Scott. And I think now we have a better idea why there's not any talk of Alex Wood or Ross
Starting point is 00:13:40 dripling even in a piggyback role to start the year because probably Walker Bueller's going to have to be. And it sounds like Julio Erius won't be fully stretched out either. But Bueller seems the furthest behind of any Dodgers pitcher. Apparently, he wasn't with the blessing of pitching coach Mark Pryor, Bueller wasn't doing much throwing during the shutdown. He was taking that time off. So he is actually having to ramp up from the start like we thought most pitchers would have to.
Starting point is 00:14:12 It turns out most pitchers don't. But Bueller is. So yeah, I mean, any thought of taking him ahead of Scherzer or Verlander, I think I don't think that makes sense. I don't think that makes sense. His first couple turns through the rotation at least will be short and maybe more. And, you know, if you get into three or four starts, you're talking about a quarter of the season
Starting point is 00:14:35 where Bueller's not going to be pitching a usual starter's workload. So that's stocked down for him. Scott would a few jabs there. He knows they have Walker Bueller as my third starting pitcher in Roto just ahead of Verlandersen. Are you still? Are you going to move him down? No, I probably should move him down now as a result of this. I didn't know if this was happening.
Starting point is 00:14:54 Move him behind the guy who's already had two injuries this year who's like 15 years older than him and who's changing his mechanics. Hey, he threw like six innings yesterday, Verlander did. Five and a third or something. He's still been hurt twice this season before the season's even started. Not hurt right now. Adam, how do you rank those three? Bueller, Verlander, Scherzerzer Verlander, Bueller.
Starting point is 00:15:18 So you made the case. It's a little disingenuous because I guess I would rank it that way, but I would skip, I don't know, does this make sense? I don't want Verlander. I would rather just take Bueller. But I feel like the responsible thing is to put Verlander ahead of him, but I have my own personal fears that I'm not sure everyone else should have. I don't want to project my insecurity on everyone else. but personally Verlander's another guy that I don't anticipate having on my team.
Starting point is 00:15:46 It's not so scary when I say that about Anthony Rizzo. It's very scary when I say about Justin Verlander. But I'd rather, I'd probably going to skip him and take Bueller or Flaherty, I guess, and just avoid the concern. No, I get what you're saying, though, Adam, because, I mean, that's partially why I have Bueller ranked ahead of them. I just, I worry about the age. I mean, the injuries with Scherzer, too.
Starting point is 00:16:07 I mean, he missed a World Series start because of, uh, neck issue. He's dealt with some back stuff. So I worry about those two guys. Last news item, Aaron Judge was supposed to return on Tuesday. He didn't. That is so surprising. I just, I've washed my hands. I'm not drafting Judge. I'm not drafting Stan. I took Judge, I can't remember, 92nd overall in a draft last or two weeks ago. Would you've taken him there? He's not going to play at him. Of course he's going to play. He's a stiff neck. He slept the wrong way. Oh yeah. He slept the wrong way for three days straight. And that's why he's not I just, I can't trust these guys. I can't trust. Look, everyone has a breaking point. Yes, if he falls that far, I will take him. But fifth, sixth, fourth, anywhere in that range, not taking him. Favorite breakouts? Scott, get us started.
Starting point is 00:16:53 2020, who is one of your favorite breakouts for this season? I mean, number one, I don't have to say him, right? You can say him for me. I don't know if it's Marcana or J.D. Davis at this point. Markana was a sleeper. All right, we covered him yesterday. Or actually, we didn't cover him yesterday. because I've covered him enough. But J.D. Davis. J.D. Davis is my favorite breakout. My favorite player to draft, period, this year. And I shouldn't have to say much to explain it. I'm frankly a little stunned.
Starting point is 00:17:28 He still goes as late as he does. He hit 307 with an 895 OPS and 410 at bats last year. Obviously, wasn't playing every day. got a stretch to play every day in August hit 295 with eight home runs in a 951 OPS he was just as good if not better his splits righties versus lefties they're basically dead even
Starting point is 00:17:52 and now with the D.H spot opening up there's no doubt he's going to be playing every day for the Mets probably probably swapping off with Yonna Sespitus between left field and D.H may be playing third base some days when Robinson Canoe get it's a day off. They slide McNeil over to second base. Davis is going to be a big part of the Mets lineup this year.
Starting point is 00:18:14 And as good as his 307 batting average, an 895 OPS were. Last year, his expected stats were even better. So, you know, round 13, 14, J.D. Davis, it's automatic for me, regardless of format. Let's have the UNSSBITS conversation. I tweeted about this earlier, and we haven't talked about him enough. he's moving up the board in NFBC, you know, in 39 drafts in July, his ADP is 279. He's the 75th outfieler off the board.
Starting point is 00:18:45 But, Scott, I keep seeing video of Cespite is swinging. He looks spry. I see him in the field. He looks healthy. Everything I've read. The one drawback for J.D. Davis is, yes, the Universal D.H. should help him, but I could still, I can just imagine the Mets still finding a way to mess this up, Scott. That is my one trepidation with J.D. Davis.
Starting point is 00:19:06 Well, how could they mess it up? What would what would they do to mess it up? What would that look like? They have Dominic Smith that maybe they could give it bats to. But like the problem for J.D. Davis is he doesn't really handle any spot defensively. Very well. He's a liability everywhere on the field. Dominic Smith is a first baseman trying to play left field.
Starting point is 00:19:28 So it's not like he's an upgrade there. Suspid as might be an upgrade in left field if his legs are really feeling that good. But then they just move J.D. Davis to do. D.H. Well, I think the issue is if neither Cestepidus can't really play the field, then he's going to D.H. Over J.D. Davis. Yeah, but
Starting point is 00:19:46 they'd still need somebody to play left field. I mean, I guess they could put Jake Mariznick out there. Yeah, they could put Jake. Is that the concern? No, I. The concern for me is that J.D. Davis had pretty much no career. Didn't do anything before last year. Well, he was with the Astros who had no spot to play. And his minor league numbers were good. Yeah, they were good.
Starting point is 00:20:05 355 Babbitt. Obviously pretty high, pretty high-ish, not super high, home run to fly ball rate. So probably some regression. And I just like, there was like no buzz about him. I don't think, I don't know. I feel like I never see, other than Scott, you know, like I don't think the newspapers really hype him up.
Starting point is 00:20:26 I don't know. For all the, you know, Mets hype, I just, JD Davis doesn't really seem to get much of it. But I trust Scott. He's been right about these types of players a lot. I wouldn't make him like my favorite player to draft, but I'll draft some JD Davis. Yeah, look, I had him last year and he did great for me,
Starting point is 00:20:44 and I was so annoyed that they didn't play him every day. So that was thing, like he was hitting that well last year and they didn't play him every day. They could try to find reasons, you know, not to, but the DH helps. But if Cespittus can't play the field, like who would you rather have Cespittus or J.D. Davis? Oh, I would rather have J.D. Davis. I agree with that. But are we getting to the point?
Starting point is 00:21:05 now where we should start to consider Cespitas more in draft, Scott? Yeah, yeah, definitely, definitely. How much more, he's a 34-year-old who hasn't played since the middle of 2018 and has had three-leg surgery since then. So, you know, it's encouraging. It's obviously worth drafting again. I took them in the reserved rounds of our recent 12-team Roto Auctions, so that's a five outfielder league, and I got them in the rest.
Starting point is 00:21:35 reserve rounds. You know, I probably, I was thrilled to get him then. I probably wouldn't throw more than a dollar to or two at him, even in a five outfielder league, because it's just, it's still hard to say how he's going to hold up. And, you know, we haven't seen him in real competition yet. He's quite a bit older than when we last saw him. But yes, the reports are encouraging, and I think given his track record, he's certainly somebody worth considering latent drafts again.
Starting point is 00:22:02 All right, Adam. I heard a rumor that you have so many breakouts. Why don't, why don't you spill the beans? Why don't you give us some of these breakouts here for 2020? Do you have the next Raphael Devers on your list? I separated my breakouts into a number of categories. The already great could be greater category,
Starting point is 00:22:23 the blind faith category, the more conventional breakouts category, the not sure I believe it category, and the leap of faith category, which is different than blind face, which I'll explain. But if you want, you guys can do all yours and I'll just run through mine later.
Starting point is 00:22:40 Yeah, it sounds like you planned a whole show here. My goodness. This will take five minutes. Yeah, I mean, Adam, if you want me to leave, you could just kind of step back in here and do what you've always done. Once I found out Chris wasn't going to be on the show, I was like, uh-oh,
Starting point is 00:22:53 got a lot of time to film. I got to put my cape on. All right, so I'll throw a few names out there. Look, these are very popular ones and pitchers that I have talked a lot about when we did our picture preview, Max Fried was my breakout candidate, so I'm going to remind people that, yes, I need to leave every single draft with one of Max Fried, Zach Allen, or Frankie Montas. I didn't consider Frankie Montas because he kind of broke out already last year.
Starting point is 00:23:16 No, I'm not worried about PEDs. He always threw the ball hard. And it was really the introduction of the splitter that helped Frankie Montas. So yes, I like him. He's ranked inside my top 25. But Max Fried, they continue to talk up this change up. And this is something we talked about, Scott, where if that can help him neutralize right-handed batters, they hit 281 against him last year. That is going to be huge for Max Fried's value. The second half last year, he started using his slider more, about 6% more.
Starting point is 00:23:44 The K-per-9 was up over 10 in that second half. His ERA was 3.63. Just would not surprise me if we're talking about Freed as a top five-round pick this time next year. And then with Zach Gallen has four different pitches that he can use, a 17-7-ERA, 0.7-1-7-1-1-1-1-1. whip in the PCL last season where I don't have the stat but I know Chris has talked about it. I think the average ERA was like near five and Zach Gallen had a sub two ERA.
Starting point is 00:24:12 It was 548. 548. The average ERA in the PCL last year, which was always a head of a friendly league and then they introduced the juice ball. Average ERA was 548. Zach Gallin's numbers in the PCL and 14 starts last year, 177 ERA, 0.71 whip, 11K per nine. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:29 How do you have that up right now, Scott? I have my breakouts 2.0 column. Oh, okay. So, yeah, I mean, I have Zach Gallen as a breakout too, clearly. A lot of people like Gallen, I get it. A lot of people like Freed. Another interesting point real quick on Gallant was, I actually had the chance to talk to him at my previous job.
Starting point is 00:24:48 And he said that being reunited with Carson Kelly is something that is going to help him tremendously. And they were in the Cardinals organization together back when they were both prospects there. So it was, Gallen was traded away to the Marlins, Carson Kelly was traded away to Diamondbacks, and now they're reunited. So that's another little tidbit. If you need any more reasons to like Zach Gallen. Scott, Freed, Galen, I assume you like these guys a lot as well.
Starting point is 00:25:15 Yeah, they're both in my breakouts column. I'm often having to compete with you for them in drafts, especially Gallen. I actually haven't drafted Freed that much. I think my pitching staff is usually pretty full by the time he goes off the board and you know I definitely am impressed by him having a better ex-fifth
Starting point is 00:25:41 than both Walker Bueller and Jack Flaherty last year I'm impressed by him having an elite ground ball rate good swinging strike skills I don't want to assume too much with the change-up and I do think he has to figure out a way to neutralize opposite handed hitters I mean that was his biggest drawback last year he did actually finish with a 402 ERA-1-33 whip.
Starting point is 00:26:00 I mean, not great numbers. So he needs to take a step forward, and he needs specifically to neutralize opposite-handed hitters. Maybe the change-up is the key to that. You know, I'm just careful not to assume too much. But I do see Frida is in a similar place to where Shane Bieber was last year, popular, trendy breakout pick, who had problems against opposite-handed hitters in his first full year starting,
Starting point is 00:26:24 and clearly Bieber figured it out. So, you know, for the right price, I'm definitely very excited about Freed. I'm just a little reluctant to rely on him too much. Adam, who would you rather have, Gowan or Max Fried? I'd rather have Gowan. I do look at Max Fried's whip 133 last year, career 137 whip, and think that might still be an issue for him. But I like them both, but I'd rather have Gowan.
Starting point is 00:26:48 Both Gowan and Freed. I like getting these guys as my SP4 normally in 12-team leagues. anything deeper than that. If you're talking a 15-team roto, I don't mind either of those guys as your SP3. Scott, give us another breakout candidate or a few, however many you want.
Starting point is 00:27:03 Just throw a bunch our way. Oh, okay. Well, I'll give you a couple higher-end ones that have been more recent for me, Nick Castellanos, who I now think is going to perform like a second round hitter this year.
Starting point is 00:27:19 Whoa. Yeah. So you're going to move them inside your top 24, Scott, come on. It's not the first time I've said it, Adam, but I know you've been away for a while. Oh, I was saying woe to something else then. I'm totally aware that you can say that. Castiana, so digging deeper into the numbers,
Starting point is 00:27:37 and I got some help from self-described stackcastekeek, Crosby Spencer on Twitter. He looked into park effects for different parts of each park, basically, and like, American Park was killing Nick Castellanos. It was such an outlier in terms of home runs to center field and homelands to right center field. And Nick Castellano drives the ball that way a lot. And then you look at his numbers after joining the Cubs last year. Final two months, he had 321 16 homers of 1002 OPS.
Starting point is 00:28:12 It kind of salvaged his season because he was up to such a rough start with the Tigers before that. And you think, okay, he just got hot, you know, regression to the mean or whatever. but like the underlying numbers during that stretch with the Cubs, they really weren't that far-fetched for a guy with Castiano's batted ball profile. And then you factor in how bad Tiger Comerica Park is for hitters like him. And now he's going to Cincinnati, which is one of the smallest ballparks in the majors,
Starting point is 00:28:43 an even better environment than he was in with the Cubs. And like, it's not hard to see Castiana. putting up numbers in line with like J.D. Martinez or Nolan Aeronado. I mean, you just project those out with the Cubs, even downgrading them a little. And that's what he looks like. And the data seems to support it. So I'm all in on Castiano this year. I took him in the seventh round in a draft we did yesterday, a 12th teamer.
Starting point is 00:29:13 And didn't think it was a reach. I mean, you know, he's to the point now where I consider him a stud-calibre bet. I have one major issue with this, though. Because this comes up all the time. First of all, I completely agree about Castianos. Even if he doesn't break out and he's just normal Nick Castian, this is my favorite thing about him. He's going at a spot where people aren't even like really drafting him all that much for the upside
Starting point is 00:29:39 and for the for the breakout ability. Now he's going 88th overall. You can tell me where he is on NFBC in the last month or whatever. 76. In July, anyway. Seventy-six in July. Like earlier, it was like a hundredth overall. Even in normal, Nick Castiano's, it's not going to be that far off from that.
Starting point is 00:29:55 So it's a really safe pick with a ton of upside. But what bothers me a little bit about the argument Scott just made that I've made before that other people have made is that it only is 2019. He actually, the three previous years, he was better at home than he was on the road in two of those three seasons just in terms of OPS. So going to a new ballpark is a big deal, especially when it's Cincinnati. But I think last year, the differences were so, so stark. But before that, just his home versus road splits, they were either, they were like fairly even and often better at home. So that's why I can't fully buy into that explanation.
Starting point is 00:30:34 But either way, he's great value and someone I'm totally targeting. I'm not exactly sure to reconcile that either because I did notice. But I mean, Castellanos himself was complaining about Camerica Park. before he got traded. And the actual data, it's so extreme. 71% of the home runs, 71% of the fly balls hit to right center
Starting point is 00:31:00 that would go out in the average MLB park. Only 71% go out in Comerica Park. And that is a extreme number on its own. Straightaway center, it's 29%. That is unheard of. Like it's, it's such a stifling environment, particularly for somebody who hits the ball that way. And you do a park overlay of Nick Castellanos,
Starting point is 00:31:22 Camerica Park versus Cincinnati. It's still great American ballpark. I mean, yes, keep calling it Cincinnati. Yeah, you do a park overlay. It's like two dozen more home runs Castellanos would have hit in Cincinnati versus Camerica Park. And granted, he won't be playing every game in Cincinnati. He didn't play every game in Detroit last year.
Starting point is 00:31:42 But like, that shows how extreme the venue shift is for him specifically. I always thought that Castellanos had that Freddie Freeman ability to break out. He hits a lot of line drives. I think that you have a 300 batting average, 35 homer pace somewhere in that bat, and perhaps great American ballpark is what can finally get it out of there. Adam, it's your time to shine, baby. Hit us with all those different categories, breakouts.
Starting point is 00:32:10 Who you got? So I really view this as players that I want to have some shares of. because I think they have great greatness potential, potential for greatness. Okay, so first category, already great, could be greater. Glaber Torres and Jack Flaherty. I think Torres could be like a second round pick next year
Starting point is 00:32:27 and Flaherty could be like DeGrom Coy. I think he could be, you know, first round pick next year. I definitely want a lot of them. I think they're great. I think they're worthy of being taken where they are. Blind faith category. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., self-explanatory. I do like the fact that he will at some point
Starting point is 00:32:44 have first base eligibility. I didn't, I wasn't on the podcast when that news came out. That helps a lot. I mean, it's a much thinner position than third base. More conventional breakouts. So these are guys that I think can go from good to great.
Starting point is 00:32:59 I do want some shares of them. Chris Paddock, I understand he probably needs another pitch. I believe in the curve ball. I think that it's going to eventually be a really good pitcher. And all Chris Paddick's ever done has been, is be great. So I love Paddock.
Starting point is 00:33:12 Yoam Moncada started hitting, Lefty's a lot better last year. Rick Rentheria said it just had enough at Bats. He finally got used to it. You know, look, crazy high Babbat. He was lucky last year for sure. But I think Munkata's kind of, he's a five-to-a-player that's 25 years old.
Starting point is 00:33:31 So there's a chance for him to be a superstar. Jose Burrios, there are enough amazing starts in there. Seven scoreless innings with 12 strike, those kinds of start. He does that as well as almost. almost any pitcher in baseball that he needs to get another pitch in his arsenal. But if Burrios does, he can go from being a 370-ish ERA guy with 310 E. He could really break out.
Starting point is 00:33:56 And you know he's going to give you the innings. So he's consistent. He's not a risky pick. He's safe to begin with. And I still see potential for greatness there for Burrios. This guy's not so much a breakout because he did it in 2016. But Corey Seeger, I think, is capable of being a top five short. stop like he was in 2016.
Starting point is 00:34:16 So that is my more conventional breakouts list. Two more players. The not sure I believe it list is one guy. It's Kyle Schwaber. The reason I think Kyle Schwabber might have his best season is he's probably not going to face a lot of lefties because there aren't that many starters in the NL Central and there aren't all that many in the AL Central. And the ones, the starting pitchers in the A.O. and NL. Central that are lefties, they're not
Starting point is 00:34:41 very good for the most part. So they might not keep their rotation spots. So Koshwarber might just be in the lineup more than ever and that in itself will lead to a breakout. And this one, I don't think anyone's going to agree with. The leap of faith, the guy that really wouldn't mind taking a shot on in a deeper league, can't so much justify it in any 12-team league. Ahmed Rosario, he has gotten incrementally better.
Starting point is 00:35:06 I think he can push his way up toward the top of the order. You know he's going to give you some steals. There's pedigree there. It could be a post-type sleeper or post. that breakout. So that is my full list. Yeah, there you go. Ahmed Rosario was the last one.
Starting point is 00:35:21 Kyle Schwabber, and then the four conventional ones are Paddock, Moncada, Brios, and Corey Seeger. Yeah, you almost made a boo-boo there, Adam. This is a breakout show,
Starting point is 00:35:29 not a sleeper show. Scott, any names you want to rattle off real quick? Oh, I'm not good at rattling, but I will do it. Kenta Maeda was the other one I was going to talk about
Starting point is 00:35:40 before I got long-winded on Castellanos, just the fact that It doesn't seem like the twins are in a position to limit his innings the way the Dodgers always did because of some terms in his contract. They don't have the pitching depth they do. And Maeda seems well equipped to pitch deep into games. He's efficient. He's always been good the third time through the order when he's gotten a chance. I think he becomes a workhorse for the twins this year.
Starting point is 00:36:05 And the numbers, the supporting numbers are very encouraging there. You know what? I'm not loving to look at my breakout list overall based on recent developments. Garrett Hampson. Garrett Hampson, I'm going to call him a breakout. Thanks in part to the DH spot, of course. And he's so versatile that they're going to find places for him in the lineup virtually every day. I think one easy route would be Daniel Murphy going to DH,
Starting point is 00:36:32 Ryan McMahon going to first base, Hampson at second base. But Hampton can also play the outfield. Final 16 games last year he hit 343 with five homers and seven steals. That was like the major. of his production for the entire season, but he made a change to his stance, changed his timing mechanism, and finally lived up to the sleeper hype,
Starting point is 00:36:53 we were all piling on him. Then, Big Steels potential, available very late. I think he has the kind of upside to be an early round pick-in fantasy if everything goes right, especially in that environment. Willie Calhoun, I know he's somebody you like, Frank.
Starting point is 00:37:09 I mean, I think he's basically Mike Mustakis of the outfield. I hope he gets his health situation sorted out, last I heard he was having an MRI on his hip. And I think that's all I want to highlight here. I'm looking at my column and I have guys like Casuuz Lozardo, COVID, Miguel Sino, COVID,
Starting point is 00:37:30 Kyle Tucker, we just heard Dusty Baker doesn't really give him a chance of winning the starting right field job. You know, Nick Anderson, I think, has breakout potential, but who knows how the race are going to hand to their bullpen. Jose Orkidie. COVID. Well, we don't know that he is COVID, but he's on the I.O. So, yeah, a lot of my breakout picks are being drafted with less confidence now. I give you a steal some of mine, if you really not feeling great about your list.
Starting point is 00:38:03 Feel free. I gave you guys a few pitchers, a few outfielders that I want to highlight. Eloy Jimenez, somebody I talk a lot about basically the same ADP as Vlad. He's going, you know, at the end of the fifth round, early sixth round. The pedigree is there. It wouldn't surprise me if you get a 35 to 40 home run pace. Out of him a great batting average as well. Was known for his hit tool in the minors. And then a little bit later on, Ian Hap and Alex Verdugo in deeper leagues.
Starting point is 00:38:29 Hap, I think, has the power speed combination. He cut the strikeouts last year, career low. It was 25% in the majors. He had an 898 OPS and 58 games with the Cubs last season. he's still just 25 years old, so I have a lot of faith in Ian Hap, more so in Roto as like your fourth or fifth outfielder. And then Alex Verdugo.
Starting point is 00:38:48 He can hit against lefties, he can hit against righties, tons of line drives. Remind me of a poor man's Michael Brantley, potentially, even becoming Michael Brantley one day. He's still very young. And now he's with the Boston Red Sox
Starting point is 00:39:02 with an opportunity to play every single day. So Eloy on the high end and then Hap and Verdugo, lower end. Those are good picks. And Hap especially is somebody, I've found myself drafting a lot more recently. So another guy I'm going to throw in like that is Colton Wong, who I haven't talked about much.
Starting point is 00:39:20 And, you know, he goes so late that I tend to think of him more as a sleeper. But of course, he's been around a while. And I think he's another player who kind of subtly benefits from the introduction of the D.H. Because now the Cardinals can stick Matt Carpenter there every day, hopefully keep him healthy. that leaves third base for for Tommy Edmund. And suddenly there's nobody who's there to platoon with Colton Wong anymore. And, you know, maybe he doesn't need to be platooned.
Starting point is 00:39:51 He had 342 in the second half last year. His batted ball profile changed in a pretty dramatic way. He kind of, I don't know if he officially lowered his launch ankle, but he was hitting fewer fly balls. He looked like a guy who finally realized, oh, I'm not really cut out to be a home run hiter in the majors. He stole 24 bases in 28 chances. And like I said, hit 342 in the second half.
Starting point is 00:40:21 Hit 285 overall. But, you know, really kick things into gear in the second half. And if he's batting at the top of the Cardinals lineup, if he's a reliable base dealer like he looked like he was last year, I mean, it's a profile that's not too dissimilar from like Whitman-Harefield, you know, is drafting Colton Wong, crap, I don't have the ADP pulled up, drafting him 214th overall
Starting point is 00:40:49 versus drafting Whitmeryfield, 47th overall. Are you basically getting the same player? I mean, you're getting it, you're getting fewer assurances, yes, but you know, the final outcome might be similar. Yeah, against lefties last year, You mentioned that he was better last season.
Starting point is 00:41:08 Hit 288 against left. He's 283 against right-handed pitching. And then in that second half, he did lower the launch angle. Started hitting more line drives. First half, 41% fly ball rate. Second half, 28% fly ball rate. So he started hitting more line drives and more ground balls, and that's something that benefited Colton Wong in a big way.
Starting point is 00:41:27 All right, quickly promote a few things. You enjoy the show here. Drop a five-star Apple podcast review. We really would appreciate it. And leave us a question. too. We'll be sure to answer that here on the air. And just want to remind everyone that your submissions, last time I'm going to remind you, submissions are due this Friday in order to try and take part in our listener leagues. We have two listener leagues set up next Monday, July 20th.
Starting point is 00:41:52 At 10 p.m., we will have a 12-te-to-head points league. And then next Wednesday will be the For the People League, July 22nd at 8 p.m. that draft will be. So send us an email, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com with a song that you've made, either about the show, about baseball, get creative with it, have some fun. If you don't have the means to make a song, just give us a reason why you think that you should be in one of those leagues. All right, we're going to take a quick break when we come back.
Starting point is 00:42:18 We're answering your questions here on fantasy baseball today. We're back here on Fantasy Baseball today, about to answer your questions, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We did a head-to-ed categories draft last night. I just want to quickly mention a few things that I noticed. Jose Ramirez, when 10th, overall in this draft. I don't think it's crazy because I think you want difference makers who are going to give you steals for this season, but it's a little weird that he went over Francisco
Starting point is 00:42:41 Lindor. Lindor went 14th overall to you actually, Scott, and it was maybe because people are worried about his steals dropping if he falls to third in the lineup, if he hits in the middle. But I looked into this and at leadoff in his career, 162 game pace, 24 steals batting leadoff, while batting third, it's 21 steals over a 162 game pace. So I think, if people are worried about that, it might be a little bit overblown. It might be, but the, historically, I'm not sure how many, how often when Lendor was batting third, Carlos Santana was batting second, which is also part of the plan. Carlos Santana is very slow, and he stops at first base a lot.
Starting point is 00:43:22 You know, he goes station to station a lot because he reaches base so often on walks, you know, always among the league gliders there. So I feel like it would have to cut into Lendor Steele's chances, just how often, Santana's going to be clogging things up ahead of him, but hopefully not too much. Adam, I know you're a big Jose Ramirez guy. Would you take him over Lindor? It's one of those things where you probably could have gotten both of them
Starting point is 00:43:45 if you just knew Jose Ramirez was going to go typically in round two, so you never even had to make that decision. But if you're saying I can only have one, no, I would take Lindor. I agree with you. A few other things I notice I'll mention quickly here. relievers went higher than they normally do. Josh Hader, 45th overall, his ADP is 54. Kirby Yates went 58th.
Starting point is 00:44:08 His ADP is 66. Roberto Osuna went 72nd. His ADP is 80. So I think if people want to lock down those elite relievers and saves, then we're starting to see those on the rise a little bit. And then the COVID concerns, Freddie Freeman lasted to the third round. Mike Trout went fifth overall. LaMayu slipped a little bit to the seventh.
Starting point is 00:44:27 Mankata slipped a little bit to the seventh. Sino, pretty much the same. round 10 and then Lazzardo felt to round 12 and that's he went about 20 spots later than his ADP so keep that in mind when you have your drafts this upcoming weekend. All right. When are you taking Trout? I, hmm, in a roto league, I would take him, I would take him eighth. I've dropped him down.
Starting point is 00:44:54 I've dropped him below, well now we've got to see what happens with DeGrom, but originally I had him now below DeGrom and Cole. and also Trey Turner. So that's where I have him in Roto. And a head to points league, I'm still all right with him fifth or six in that area. Too aggressive? That's the biggest drop I had heard anybody talk about so far.
Starting point is 00:45:17 I have him about fifth where he went here. I'm obviously dropping him behind Yelich, Bellinger, Bats, Cole probably in a head-to-head points league, and Akuni, obviously, in a Roto league. So yeah, fifth sounds right for me in both formats. I would still take Trout ahead of Trey Turner. I might take him behind Bregman, Alex Bregman in a points league. So that might be one other player that drops him in that format.
Starting point is 00:45:44 If he's going fifth, can I call Mike Trout a sleeper? That's the Chris Towers line of thinking. John Carlos Stanton is a sleeper. All right, your email is fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This one comes from Rosendo. What's so special about Julio Arias? he's on my waivers and I'm in desperate need for a pitcher. Aren't the Dodgers going to hold him back even with David Price out?
Starting point is 00:46:07 Should I use my number one pick on waivers for Julio Arias? What do you think, Scott? I mean, if you're desperate for a pitcher, that seems like a layup. I think your concerns are well-founded. He's not going to be as stretched out as Kershaw would and stripling are going to be. And the Dodgers have a lot of, a lot of, starting caliber arms that they're trying to work into the mix here. But Julio Urius, at the start of the off season, nearly a full calendar year ago,
Starting point is 00:46:37 there was somebody, he was somebody they were already saying they were ready to move him into the rotation. He was announced before Alex Wood was. He was announced before Ross Stripling was. So particularly in a 60 game season where they don't have to preserve his innings over the long haul, I think the plan would be to build him up for a full starter's workload. And, you know, I have him in my breakouts column, too. and talk about him. I guess we are now. And he's, it's a long, it's been a long time coming for this guy.
Starting point is 00:47:05 He debuted as a 19 year old. I think he was the first starting pitcher to do that since Felix Hernandez. It's so rare. And he was considered arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball at the time. Obviously got set back by injuries, but looked really good in kind of a swing man roll last year. I think he's ready to take the next step. It's worth noting that Arias has been much better as a reliever in his career, 35 appearances, a 221 ERA. with a 113 whip as a starter, a 366 ERA with a 1-3-5 whip. Adam, in a points league,
Starting point is 00:47:39 I don't know how many endings we're going to get out of Ares. I mean, even as a SPARP, is he better as a rhodo pitcher than in head-toe points? He might be, but I just don't understand. We have this conversation every day about guys getting stretched out and this and that. There aren't enough pitchers to go around that are going to be like stretched out,
Starting point is 00:47:58 ready to go pitching deep into games. You're going to have some guys on your roster, I would imagine, unless you seriously heavily invest in pitchers early. And so the season's not two weeks long. It's not three weeks long. Aureas is a special talent. He is nasty.
Starting point is 00:48:14 He's got a 318 career IRA. And as Scott mentioned, he's super young. So, yeah, okay, I can buy that. He's better in, in Roto, especially if he can get the walks down a little bit and get that whip down. but I still think he's worth picking up off waivers if he's available. Definitely. Yeah, pick him up.
Starting point is 00:48:36 I just, I don't know you're going to, you aren't going to run in. A lot of fantasy managers aren't going to run into that problem of having someone in the rotation who's not stretched out and is not going quality start, not going six innings for his first two starts. It does seem like more of the exception than the rule. Players whose workload will be limited early on, and I think we thought it would be the other way. around. But yeah, I mean, not everybody's going to go, be ready to go the distance right away.
Starting point is 00:49:03 This next one's from Matt. Hey, Alexander, Aaron, and Thomas. Sounds like Hamilton characters. I mean, founding fathers, but. Is Aaron Burr a founding father? Yeah. I really don't know much about him other than what he did. I mean, he was around. I don't know much about him either. It was a vice president. And, killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel. Oh, thanks, Scott. Wow, spoiler. I'm about to see Hamilton.
Starting point is 00:49:33 Wow, oh my gosh. On part of my take, Trevor Bauer said he spent the extra three months getting stronger and working on his command. He also mentioned he added one to two miles per hour to his fastball. Due to this, would it have any effect on your ranking? I mean, I'll just start off. I am the Trevor Bauer hater on the show, but I will say, if he's throwing one to two miles per hour harder,
Starting point is 00:49:57 that is something that is going to, that should help him. But you really won't know until the season starts. So that's my take on back. It's a huge deal. It's a huge deal, I think. Especially if it's two miles per hour. Yeah, it would help him a lot.
Starting point is 00:50:13 He could go either way. But he could be a guy that's like, all right, short season, 60 games, I'm just going to throw as hard as I can. It probably does already, actually. Especially when he's launching the ball into the batters eye in Kansas City. I would be interested in hearing this
Starting point is 00:50:29 from a different source. Trevor Bauer says a lot of things. Right? Yeah, like I believe Trevor Bauer less than, talking about Trevor Bauer, I believe Bauer less than like other people talking about Bauer. It's like, what if I came on the show
Starting point is 00:50:45 and said, hey guys, last week I threw 100 miles per hour, would you believe me? Probably not. He's the ultimate wild card. Look, it wouldn't say, surprise me if he performs like a second round pick. We've seen him do it before. It wouldn't surprise me if he's on the waiver wire come the mid-August. It's just, Trevor Bauer could go either either way for me. There is no way he will be on the waiver wire in three weeks. That would be a
Starting point is 00:51:08 surprise. You'll see. You'll see. I don't see that happening either. This way comes from Chris. I'm the commissioner in a 16-team keeper league that's been going for almost 20 years. Two teams do not want to play this season regardless of rule changes. What do we do? Just lock their keepers and play down two teams, but have their players off limits? If we take that route, it poses another issue of next year's draft. We do a straight draft based on last year's record. If they don't play, where do we put them? Look, if they don't play, you put them, they get last pick if they want to come back next year. That's easy for me. Yeah, this is strange. I haven't even considered this possibility.
Starting point is 00:51:48 Teams like fantasy participants wanting to just opt out for this season. Like it's 20, Scott, anything that happened. Obviously it's common people dropping out of leagues permanently, but they're not willing to forfeit their spot in the league. They just don't want to play this year. That's,
Starting point is 00:52:04 I would, I would do exactly what is mentioned here. I would lock their, lock their keepers, play down two teams. And yes, I would not put their players back into the player pool. I would lock their, I would basically lock their rosters from everybody else and just play a 14 team league without a bunch of players, which is weird.
Starting point is 00:52:28 But this is a 20 year league. So you don't want to have a situation where they're not back next year. They have to be back next year. So yeah, it's very unconventional, but it's what I do. Do you automatically give them those two teams, 15th and 16th pick next year, Adam? You know, I think you could, but another thing you can do is let everybody. pick their draft order and have them get the last pick, like the last preference. Because some people like picking 15th and 16th, you know?
Starting point is 00:52:58 But they should have like the worst draft order, draft spot if that exists. This next one from Tom, you guys talked a lot about NL pitchers being downgraded because of the DH. Is there a chance it could help some pitchers because they won't be pulled for a pinch hitter in close games? something I hadn't really thought about, Scott, but I guess it's feasible. Yeah, that will happen sometimes. I can't sit here and tell you today which pitchers will be more affected by that than others.
Starting point is 00:53:31 It's hard to quantify. Yeah, yeah. And I think the obvious losses in percentages that come from facing an extra hitter every time through the lineup certainly outweigh that. Yeah. This next one's from Steve. Hi, Walter, Ty, Christy, Honest, and Babe.
Starting point is 00:53:52 I don't know that we've ever had five people on. Yeah, the best of the best, basically. But I guess we can include Heath Cummings in one of these. 12-team Keeper Roto Auction Draft, $260 budget. Keeper salary increases basically 20% every year. My keepers with next year's 2020 salary are Fernando Tatis for $6. Pete Alonzo for $8, Cody Bellinger for $8,
Starting point is 00:54:18 Kyle Tucker for $6, Kirby Yates for $6, Aaron Nola for 12, Chris Paddock for 8, and Justin Verlander for 33. My question is, should I keep Mackenzie Gore for $3 over Mitch Garver for $3? Garver gives me an advantage at catcher,
Starting point is 00:54:34 but I won't keep Verlander after this season, and it would be nice to have a cheap young pitcher, a potential ace, in Gore. I just don't know how much Gore will help this year, and I want to play to win. But should I neglect next season, but I don't want to neglect next season since this one is so short.
Starting point is 00:54:51 What should I do? What do you think, Scott? Would you rather have Gore for three bucks or Garver for three bucks? I know what Scott's going to say. Oh, you do, do you? You do? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:05 All right, answer for me, because Scott's going to say Garver and then I'm going to say Gore. Scott's struggling a little bit. I don't know if it's a slam dunk for him. I assume you're limited to eight keepers. because I'm you know this question raises a lot of other questions for me like why wouldn't you keep
Starting point is 00:55:22 Verlander for $33 next year well I guess if it increases Rlander if it increases 20% that he was showing next year's salaries I thought but even if he wasn't I mean Verlander's going for you know in a league where people have a bunch of cheap keepers like this
Starting point is 00:55:40 Verlander's going to go over $50 I'm sure yeah next year and next year he would probably be a $39 or $40 keeper based on the 20% increase. So you probably still would keep him. Right. But, you know, I guess he's limited to eight keepers,
Starting point is 00:55:53 and so he's thinking, I'm, I actually think I might go go gore here. Because, I mean, Garver's already, I think he's already 30. Like, he's not, or 29 or something like that. He's not a young guy, and obviously not a very proven guy,
Starting point is 00:56:10 and who knows if he's going to be a long-term option for me. Like, you could just buy him back if you want to catch her that bad. You don't need a locked in at a really low price The way you want Gore locked in at a low price So you're taking Gore, Adam, you're taking Gore as well Yeah, and apparently I don't know Scott as well as I thought I did I know, I mean, you're off the show for a couple of weeks
Starting point is 00:56:31 And this guy just completely changes on you, Adam This next one's from Ryan. My League is having unlimited IL spots this year We have a verbal clause that You cannot add a player and put him in an IL spot Thoughts You guys watch South Park? Duh.
Starting point is 00:56:49 Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. That's how I feel about this. Well, I mean, I think that rule makes sense, though, because, I mean, if someone just gets hurt, you could just pick them up
Starting point is 00:57:00 and throw them on the IL. Oh, yeah, you know what? Unlimited IL spots. Oh, who's the dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. Yeah, no, it's me. It's me. Okay, I'm dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. I wasn't, I wasn't really...
Starting point is 00:57:12 I wouldn't do it that way. I would... I would have a limit or maybe like unlimited COVID, but two or three non-COVID or something. But okay, fair enough. I agree if you have unlimited IL spots, you shouldn't. No, because here's the problem. You've got to have some capacity to pick up IL players.
Starting point is 00:57:37 I think you have to separate it COVID versus non-COVID if you're going to do this. What if you're still allowed to pick up IL players, but you can't place them on the IL. Like they just have to be on your regular bench. I guess. And we're not going to know everybody who's placed on the aisle for COVID too. So that's...
Starting point is 00:57:55 Here's the big... Well, you'll know. We'll know without knowing, I think. But here's the big issue. Maybe not, Scott. The big issue is this. What happens when that player comes off the I.O? Like, then it's just a free-for-all or, you know, to get the guy?
Starting point is 00:58:11 Like, he's sitting on the... He's sitting on waivers. You can't stash him. nobody can pick them up. Right. Well, presumably nobody wanted it. Like, you're imagining somebody so high in just sitting out there that it's going to be a race to pick them up? I'm not sure why that would be the case.
Starting point is 00:58:29 No, not necessarily, but like, I don't know. Maybe it's a, I don't know. I have no idea. I'm an idiot. I'm just going to stop talking. And Tao Wars, we have unlimited IL spots. I never even conceived it before, but that's just the standard in Tout Wars,
Starting point is 00:58:48 and I've played in it three years now, and it hasn't really changed things for me, except when my players get hurt, I don't have to worry about dropping them, you know? So I really don't think it's a big deal. Look, I think in most leagues this year, we spoke about this, how many IL spots you should have. I think three to five is probably that magic number,
Starting point is 00:59:05 but if you do play with unlimited IL spots, you should not be able to just pick up an IL player who's on the IL, and they go right into one of those unlimited spots. If you want to pick up a player who's on the IL, they should count as one of your actual bench spots. They shouldn't be allowed to be added right to one of those IL spots. All right, that'll do it. That's it. Breakouts in the books. We got sleepers and breakouts already done. Tomorrow, we will be talking about busts here on the show for Scott and Adam. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching on the fantasy baseball today YouTube channel.
Starting point is 00:59:34 We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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